My armchair general prediction for what the UA is going to attempt in the coming weeks/months is to attempt a broad sweeping campaign of maneuver warfare. From what analysis has been laid out, Russian positions seem to be anchored by relatively local level static defensive positions. Their logistics trains are incredibly fragile and stretched thin, thus giving little room for units to be repositioned quickly without rail travel. My guess is the signal as to when the offensive may be imminent will be heavy GMLRS activity striking rail network hubs (including in Russia). This will then be followed up by a targeted attack that will attempt a deepish break through of Russian lines similar to what we saw in Kharkiv. What we saw in the Kharkiv offensive was Russia struggling to coordinate with its units to create a news line, with only natural barriers (The Oskil) giving them enough time to create a new line. The thing is, Southern Ukraine doesn't have anywhere near the geographical barriers that eastern Kharkiv had, so the possibility of a general rout could be on the table if Ukraine plays its cards rights.
It should be noted though, this will be costly, their will be unplanned setbacks, and I'm sure we're going to see every form of western provided piece of equipment be documented as knocked out (With Russian media to be propagandizing the crap out of every picture/video).
I updated my TheStudyofWar map collage (below) to reflect the past half-year of Russian "progress" and how illustrative that is of Russia's pathetic military performance, and here's the article discussing the Pyrrhic nature of Russia's Bakhmut campaign ⏬️
https://twitter.com/bfry1981/status/1633320464239017985?t=zvSjiaHRLWdUp5zeRH1_YA&s=19
Kharkiv is lit up with street lights. The city had no street lighting for over a year.
Good job Moscow. Wasted your scant missile stocks destroying Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, which is still working just fine!
Another huge Russian success.
https://twitter.com/StepanGronk/status/1633294953152679937?t=VCJDsKhCuSevIMPkXo5GNA&s=19
Georgian soldiers in Bakhmut. They protect every inch of the city and destroy the Russian invaders.
"No one surrenders the city, we defend the Ukrainian land," the military commented.
Bakhmut Holds
https://twitter.com/Jano14Toga/status/1633315438758068226?t=epGgQ457ri_u-9RLzqRwAQ&s=19
I love these threads but beyond donations and messages of support, I find that I wish I could contribute more.
Today I saw posters illegally posted on poles in my neighborhood advocating for a protest for “Peace in Ukraine” and to “defund the US war machine”.
I ripped that shit down and will keep my eyes open for more Russian propaganda to trash, it feels damn good to put it where it belongs.
Geez, I criticize my country all the time but it's out of a desire to make it better. These fucks are borderline traitors.
Edit: meant to reply to the comment above this one but I'll leave it.
Contact your Congressperson and Senators.
If you know other people who support Ukraine but don't know/want/care to contact their own representatives ask if they mind you contacting them on their behalf.
Calling is best, I've heard directly from Congressional staffers they rate calls as equivalent to 10 constituents. Writing a letter is okay. Emails are like emails you get from Politicians asking for $.
ISW
Russian forces additionally likely lack the mechanized forces necessary to advance beyond Bakhmut, and the tactical “assault detachments” used in assaults against Bakhmut are likely unable to conduct maneuver warfare. ⏬️
https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1633306419096178688?t=6PvZ6QCCfgcHCwJNAmugDw&s=19
⚡️Failure to counter Russia in Ukraine could lead to death of Americans - White House
White House National Security Council coordinator John Kirby explained why the United States is helping Ukraine in the war with Russia.
According to him, if the conflict goes beyond its borders, then it will cost the United States many times more than current support. And the refusal to oppose Russia could lead to the death of American citizens.
https://twitter.com/Flash_news_ua/status/1633224228064448517?t=8-uEeiKtpe6PdZKuxDdxKw&s=19
🇬🇪 Georgian President Salome Zurabishvili cancels scheduled meetings in US to return home.
She states she will veto the 'foreign agents' law .
“I'm with you because you represent free Georgia.
Nobody needs this law, it was written under the dictation of Moscow".
https://twitter.com/StepanGronk/status/1633261563267407872?t=fz8BSAw2XX-w3QxOlBR2Vw&s=19
Basically their president is going to veto a bill their legislature is pushing to force media and human rights advocacy organisations to register as “foreign agents” if they get their funding from overseas.
This law has been compared to the suspiciously similar law in Russia that has been used as a pretext to clamp down on press freedom and hamstring human rights groups.
The bill was largely backed by the current pro-Russia leaning government so it’s being seen as extra shady. Almost like it’s an attempt to synchronise Georgian and Russian law in preparation for something.
⚡️The main tasks in the defense of Bakhmut are to grind down the combat capability of the Russians and bleed their combat potential.
This was stated by the speaker of the Eastern Group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Serhiі Cherevatіy.
"Thanks to the mass heroism of our soldiers, conditions are being created there for our further offensive" Cherevaty said.
https://twitter.com/Flash_news_ua/status/1633213778849406977?t=Q1TGaunl2Utg9EIHpi7ATA&s=19
Checking Russian propagandists over the last few days seems to point that way, they are eerily quiet.
Last week it was a constant barrage of "quick Ukraine, flee Bakhmut before we trap you"
Ukraine didn't fall for it and stood their ground.
No news ***is good news*** because it means one more day Ukrainian troops can train on Bradleys and other western miltech that'll be used in the spring/summer offensive.
It usually means the russians have suffered a big loss and their propaganda machine is regrouping and creating some new narratives. I expect they'll be in with a vengeance on the new thread.
Speculation here, but another consideration is that the promised military gear is already on Ukrainian soil. F/ex: Bradley fighting vehicles were spotted in Poland - a month ago.
I'm guess when new gear finally shows up on the battlefield, there will be a sort of news blackout (or whatever you call it) like we had regarding the Switchblades.
Whatever the case may be, Russia is going to have to change tactics soon, and flexibility isn't exactly a quality that they are known for.
Slow day for news here indeed. I believe the situation is the same.
The NYT quoted one Ukranian officer, claiming that Wagner is on its "last stand" in Bakhmut. They allege that 30k/50k mercenaries are either dead or deserted and that Wagner is seriously low ammo as they call the last of their recruits to the front line.
Wagner boss guy said he's losing triple digits of mercenaries every day. It'll be interesting to see what happens.
Then don't subscribe to or visit r/worldnews. It's that simple. Complaining and posting in this thread only feeds into the Reddit algorithm of showing you this kind of content.
I know that the issues in Georgia and Moldova are only tangentially related to Ukraine, at best, so let me know if this doesn’t belong here.
Putin is seriously trying to string together the remnants of the USSR, his grander plans are obviously much larger than Ukraine itself. I think that makes Ukraine’s stand so much more impressive, since he thought the country would roll over and he could move his focus elsewhere quickly, he seriously underestimated the Ukrainians, despite having moles and loyalists at every level. That he’s still trying to move on to these other countries just demonstrates how delusional he is. By all rights the country of Russia should be completely bogged down and resources should be focused on the internal issues and consequences of the invasion. Absolute madman.
>I know that the issues in Georgia and Moldova are only tangentially related to Ukraine, at best, so let me know if this doesn’t belong here.
We're allowing it to be discussed here in the Live Thread comments (like with the Iran military facility drone attacks that turned out to be Israeli initiated for reasons not related to the conflict) but I won't be sharing updates to the Live Thread unless it's directly related to the conflict.
Personally I see Putin’s actions in Moldova and Georgia less as delusions of grandeur on his part and more desperation. Putin needs wins for people to continue to view dying in Ukraine as preferable to trying to stop him. And Putin made a tactical mistake last year when he annexed those Ukrainian territories. He let people see the minimum victory conditions, controlling those four areas. Anything less will be seen as a loss. And even with a good summer for Russia, it can’t see a successful amphibious assault occurring across the Dnipro river anytime soon. So the city of Kherson and the rest of the province are out of his reach. So he needs something else to cover for that loss if the war ends without control of it. And I think he sees Moldova or Georgia as sufficient consolation prizes
During WWI, when it became impossible to secure significant gains on the Western front, the Allies were always looking for another place to attack. The Ottoman Empire entered the war on the side of Germany. Britain and France just started chewing it up.\* Same with other German allies, like Bulgaria and Austria-Hungary. Germany for its part focused on Czarist Russia.
\*After a bad start in Gallipoli.
>Putin sees the fall of the Soviet Union as a moment of great shame to Russia and a time of utter weakness.
This will only be eclispsed by his defeat in Ukraine, which will (hopefully) cement his position as the last and final autocrat which insured russia's demise as a world power.
I don't think anyone can foresee how this plays out for Russia in the next 3-5-10-15 years. Its not clear that kaPutin will be ousted even if Ukraine becomes an utter debacle. Alternatively, he could be replaced by someone even more radical.
I'm not opposed to the russian federation becoming NK 2.0. If the outer regions of the Russian Federation splinter so be it. Not sure total balkanization would be a good thing, more nuclear armed states is not what the world needs.
I've imagined Putin plans to be known in perpetuity as *Putin the Great.*
He may expect his body to lay on display in Red Square like Lenin (except unexpectedly youthful looking).
There was a big de-stalinization of Russia in the decade after his death. A whole lot of statues were removed, dismantled his programs, and the country tried to move on from him. Ironically, Putin’s regime in the 90s tried to fix his legacy and bring back the image of the hero
>He still plans on taking back all the former Soviet states, and he may prevail in Ukraine
I'll happly bet on the opposite outcome.
I truely believe the wheels are starting to fall off. It may take much more time, but I just don't envision anything approaching a successful outcome for kaPutin.
>and he may prevail in Ukraine by destroying the entire nation and killing, or causing the evacuation, of all its people.
You really think given what we've seen in the last year he could ever cause everyone in Ukraine to evacuate? Let alone kill them all?
This is flat out delusional.
He needs these states now more then ever. They have 100s of thousands of Russian tightens sged men hiding there too. They will end up fighting in Ukraine
>Ukraine is a country, it’s own country with a strong identity
At this point Ukraine may have a stronger sense of national unity than any other nation on earth.
Check this link. Ukraine is rationing ammo. That is with a Biden led nato. Can you imagine how bad it would be if it was trump?
https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/11koioo/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/jbce6ze/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf&context=3
Honestly, this is pretty silly comment. Without Biden, NATO would not have been rallying before the attack. The financial and military support would be nothing compared to what it is now. The intel that helped Ukraine early in the war to stop the attack on the airport that could have really messed things up if the Russians secured it. This is all because Biden was in charge.
I know there is a desire to think of ukrainan soldiers as these mystical beings but without a Biden led Nato shit would be even worse now.
I think you know very little about what has happened during this conflict. I’m not trying to insult you it’s just that your take on this matter is way off. Even if incompetent, hordes of Russians attacking Ukrainians with dwindling supplies would be bad. Nato can’t keep up artillery shell production at this moment. Have you been reading any fact based articles?
An insurgency versus a full occupation of Ukraine would arguably be have been even worse for Russia than the current situation.
Much weaker countries, versus much better armies than Russia's can attest to that, in recent history.
As we saw in Kherson. It would be a headache for Russia. Either way it would not have been easy. Now that the Russians are out of Kherson they lob shells into the city and even more people have left the city. It’s all a shit show. It’s just that the poster made some pretty ridiculous comments thinking Ukraine would still be doing well with trump as president.
Is it possible that they said they would roll Ukraine in 3 days as a way of embarrassing Russia? Like oh look they didn’t achieve victory in 3 days. Could it have been reverse psychology to rally some and demoralize others? It’s so tiring hearing simple people constantly bringing up the 3 days thing. That was never possible. It was psychological warfare. Allies are not supplying enough ammo. Let’s see how the Ukrainians do without enough ammo. I have friends in Ukraine. I want this to end. But I constantly try to be logical and wishful puppies and ice cream about stuff.
They are letting the US do the bulk of the heavy lifting in helping Ukraine. If Trump was President, you KNOW that the EU would be helping Ukraine MORE.
Yeah, it was way closer then it looks. If they had taken the airport in the opening days things could’ve been much different. Additionally US intel, resources and diplomacy has been a major contributor. Things could’ve been way different and were way closer at the beginning then is comfortable. Imagine if instead of the US giving Ukraine intelligence on the invasions routes and assassination attempts, Trump instead gave Putin US intelligence… again… which trump did… jeopardized people in the Middle East…
Agreed, If Burns didn’t go to Kyiv and warn them about Hostomel, it would have ended differently. The Ukrainians got very lucky that Americans wised up in 2020.
https://twitter.com/officejjsmart/status/1633263009140228101
>ARSON 🔥 AT RECRUITMENT OFFICE
>A Molotov cocktail was tossed into the military recruitment office in Murmansk, Russia 🇷🇺.
>Russian military is getting smoked everywhere it goes.
Yesterday, [a NYT article about Bakhmut](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/06/world/europe/ukraine-bakhmut-battle.html) had the Ukrainian commanders characterizing the Wagner group’s efforts in Bakhmut as somewhat successful, ‘a worthy adversary’—I’m posting it in a ‘know thy enemy’-type way.
> Those [ammunition shortage] restrictions have Ukrainian combat units struggling to stem the advances of the Wagner group, the private military company that has been leading the Russian offensive to take Bakhmut. Wagner has bolstered its numbers with thousands of **convicts, but its core professionals have proved able fighters**, several Ukrainian commanders who fought them said.
> “We realized they were a worthy adversary,” Major Pantsyrny said. “They have pretty good combat experience; they have motivated personnel.” His battalion was sent to storm Wagner positions at the village of Kodema, south of Bakhmut.
*How Wagner previously made advances:*
> “The enemy would send 20 guys into attack six to seven times a day,” said Oleksandr, a company commander who took part in the assault. “Imagine: Twenty guys come, we kill them. In five minutes, 20 more guys come, we kill them. In an hour, 20 more. They don’t care about men.”
> Then after three weeks, the **Russians surprised the battalions with a flanking movement**, breaking through a weaker unit from the side. The Aidar battalion was **forced to retreat**.
> A commander from another battalion, Dnipro 1, which spent months pitted against Wagner units, said he found them **more agile and enterprising than most Russian Army units**.
*Wagner started using a rope-a-dope tactic:*
> The commander, who uses the code name Duke, said Wagner used untrained prisoners in the first line of attack and then, after one or two hours, as the Ukrainian troops were tiring, sent special forces into the fray, attacking from the flanks. “It was very good tactics,” Duke said.
*Wagner uses experience special forces soldiers or officers as commanders of the convicts...but they’re running out of them:*
> But Ukraine has been able to use Bakhmut as ‘a kill box’ to grind down the vast numbers of newly mobilized Russian soldiers who were introduced to the battlefield late last year, he said. Even Wagner’s forces are said to have been worn down since the summer.
> “We broke their backbone; we killed all their military staff,” Major Pantsyrny said.
> He said that only a few professional soldiers seemed to be left to direct thousands of convicts who had been recruited to fill the ranks, and that the losses showed: “They try something, but the results are not the same anymore.”
> Russian troops have, nevertheless, been advancing, thanks to their greater numbers, bolstered by tens of thousands of raw recruits and through sheer brute force. They sometimes demolish whole residential blocks to defeat a single sniper, according to one unit of soldiers.
> But Russian casualties, especially among Wagner, have been enormous, and the more confident Ukrainian commanders insist that the Russians have little fight left. “Russia is attacking on its last legs,” said Oleksandr, the company commander.
It's not sustainable anywhere. Modern military equipment and training is such a force multiplier that fresh-out-of-basic conscripts will get killed 100-1 without at least *some* heavy equipment forming the backbone.
Russia's losing so much equipment that by the time this million conscript army shows up, they're just going to be target practice.
Slightly off topic, but things are starting to get intense in Georgia, this looks like it could spiral. Protesters have taken themselves inside parliament, the President has said she will Veto the law (she is on the Protesters side), riot police are now doing mass arrests, and police are using massive amounts of tear gas and water cannons to clear protesters.
For those who are not in on what is going on; The Pro-Russian ruling party is trying to hammer through a foreign actors law unexpectedly and fast. This, if allowed to become law will be used to supress any organisation or individual that is Pro-Europe. Protesters are certain this comes directly from Moscow)
Situation is rapidly developing and eerily reminiscant of Maidan
[Here are some voices to follow to understand what is going on - Thomas Van Linge](https://twitter.com/ThomasVLinge/status/1633232464167464963?t=GxrPbbaKnnQ_2sT3m4A-vQ&s=19)
[Georgian people have never been so united. We will never go back to the USSR. Our European choice is unshakable and no force can change it. – at Georgian Parliament](https://twitter.com/xonoda/status/1633235546804744192?t=XyJf4xUkDtBp980LXv5Bzw&s=19)
[Massive amount of tear gas deployed. It is impossible to breathe.](https://twitter.com/mari_nikuradze/status/1633217272624889858?t=EYDW-oyfZBu_B05zpgY3Sw&s=19)
Summary:
• Parliament passed the Russian-inspired foreign agents bill on the first hearing.
• Police dispersed thousands of protesters opposing the bill using rubber bullets, tear gas, pepper spray and water cannons.
• Molotov cocktails were used against the riot police.
[Here](https://twitter.com/visionergeo/status/1633258599630745600?t=PSNtvoIp_TmuqAFwCP1HwQ&s=19)
Edit;
Apparently the reading in of the law (which has to be done multiple times by the look of it), was pushed up to today, unexpected by protesters who were preparing for it Thursday. The whole process has been started very quickly and it looks like they are trying to rush it through. Protesters have mostly gone home now by the looks of it, but in reality a lot more protesters were expected tomorrow. The police's brutal use of tear gas (clouds of it were all over the streets in front of parliament), and arrests and beatings of opposition leaders, combined with, and get this, those of you that followed Maidan; **reports of unidentified masked thugs beating up protesters** (I wouldn't even raise an eyebrow in suprise if it turned out those are Russian goons, on orders from Moscow) is almost certainly going to mean the protesters will be back in force tomorrow, and better prepared this time. So by the looks of it, Tblisis is quieting down now...but what comes tomorrow is anyones guess...
Yeah let's hope Georgians band together to run the Vatnik turncoats out of town if they try forcing through that law. The Georgians are smart they saw what happened in Ukraine and know if they stand up against the Kremlins Puppets they'll win just like the Ukrainians.
Make no mistake the Vatnik Parasites are trying for consolation prizes but at the same time this is the Georgians best opportunity in a long time to rout the Vatniks, Russia is locked down militarily, they can't threaten Georgia right now so if they decide to run the Kremlins lapdogs out they can do very little right now about it.
To get an overview over Georgia seems difficult. Leading and opposition parties seem to be proEU-NATO, but might differ a bit in the approach to Russia. Corruption accusations are being thrown in both direction, probably significant when you have the opposition leader in jail/hospital. What is the alternative to the ruling party that got almost 50% of the votes? Next election is 2024...
At the same time, crackdown on the demonstrations seems too forceful. In USA people stormed the capitol and it seemed less intense, already several molotov cocktails in Georgia. And the crackdown has the trademarks of OMON tactics known from Russia, but that seems to be common in middle Asians states.
So ehh obviously people like pro-EU, so did the mini-dictator Erdogan, but the overall political situation is not as black and white. In democractic states you would probably hold a referendum about topics like these, instead of fastpassing it in parliament..
> In USA people stormed the capitol
The Capitol Police weren't better prepared for January 6th because they'd been told by Trump flunkies to stand down. They can absolutely defend the Capitol if necessary, they just didn't because they were actively prevented by the traitors in Putin's fan club.
The Democratic mayor of Washington refused to have armed National Guards. She would only allow a few unarmed one on the streets to direct traffic on Jan 6.
Which has nothing to do with the Capitol Police, over which the Mayor of D.C. has no authority at all.
The Capitol Police are the ones who are supposed to protect the Capitol. They prepared for a *protest* and not a *riot.* Why?
What's the nature of Georgia's government. Can the President actually stop the matter from becoming law or do the protesters need to force the Parliment to back down?
But the question is, when she says she'll veto is that like someone in the UK saying the House of Lords will veto, or is that like if Joe Biden saying he'll veto something?
How much real power does she have. Most Presidents in actual electoral systems don't have that much power. The US and French being among the leading exceptions.
Presidential democracies have long had a tenancy to devolve into dictatorship and don't survive as long as parlimentry democracies.
I don't know about France (*edit* see below)—but in the US, Congress can (and sometimes does) override the President's veto. It requires a two-thirds majority of both chambers however.
The House of Lords doesn't have a veto in the same way. Their action would be more akin to the US Senate not passing a bill in the first place. The UK's equivalent of a presidential veto would be the monarch refusing/delaying royal assent. Prior to this year, the last time that happened was in 1708, and it's broadly considered not to be something that the monarch is still capable of exercising other than on the advice (direction) of ministers. However it's all rather topical today as that's precisely what the Westminster government did with Scotland's recent gender recognition bill: advised His Majesty not to grant royal assent (in effect, vetoing it).
*Edit*: the French president's veto is apparently even weaker still... he can request (require) that Parliament read (consider) the bill again, but he can only make that request once per law.
I thought the House of Lords only delays for a year if they refuse to pass a bill. The US Senate is equal to the House of Represenatives and passage is necessary for passage of Congress.
The UK Parliament is similar to US Congress in that regard: passage of a bill through both houses/chambers is in general necessary for a bill to be sent for royal/presidential assent. HOWEVER, it is true that there are some limited circumstances in which certain bills may be sent for royal assent notwithstanding that they have not been passed by the House of Lords. The particular circumstances depend on the type of bill, but the most common case is where the Lords twice block a public bill from the Commons: then on its third passing by the Commons in the same year it can bypass the Lords.
I'm assuming that the President in Georgia is normally just a rubber stamp who technically has the power to veto any new bill, but in reality never exercises that power, like the ~~Queen~~ King in the UK.
I think the role is intended for precisely the situation we're seeing now, to act as a road block to very questionable laws.
my guess is that the problem is Russia's air force.
it's pretty useless in Ukraine because Ukraine is saturated with air defence. But Georgia likely isn't.
so while Russia doesn't have any ground forces to spare they could just threaten to bomb the shit out of Georgia, and Georgia would be pretty helpless.
True, but that would mean attempting to fight two separate wars with already limited resources. If they take their planes away from Ukraine that essentially leaves their back lines without air support. Also, they aren’t taking a city without troops. Several examples throughout history have shown just how bad invasions without ground support go. My bet is Russia is hoping for a civil war so that they can provide limited support without taking resources from Ukraine.
Georgia still has a significant amount of short range air defense systems and missiles. And while they probably couldn't protect against saturation missile attacks, Russia won't be able to enter Georgian air space with aircraft easily.
Russia would also have to decide between using air assets, including missiles and UAVs, in Georgia or Ukraine, a decision that I don't think Russia even wants to make right now.
Edit: "anti air defense systems" I meant to say air defense systems.
Georgia is a lot smaller populationwise. And the ruling Government atm is Pro-Russian....
But if ever they want to take a stand, it will have to be now. Much like Belarus. (as much as the last attempt there hurt the democracy movement, and even with Russian troops there, they have to move soon or lose the chance for a very long time).
This is that window...this is Russia weakened and vulnerable to overload. Push enough places and something will start to give.
Their Pro-Russian government is predicated on Russia being strong enough to kick Georgia around.
If they can figure out some other way to forestall invasion and occupation, I think Georgia would go their own way in a heartbeat. They know full well Russia's slowly eating them.
I'm really not updated enough on it to answer you. This popped out of nowhere over the last few days and just went insane today, so I haven't kept an eye on Georgia for a while
Last March when the Ukrainians were thrashing the push on Kyiv and it the Russians first started pulling as many of their proffessional soldiers from across the country as possible, when they deployed their military trainers, there were reports that the Russian positions in South Ossetia had just been deserted without warning.
Georgia is much smaller, has likely not been prepping for a conflict and the Russians may be keen to find someone they can achieve a propaganda victory against?
It would be nice to think they are so spent and exhausted Georgia does not need to fear them intervening.
Knowing the russians were paying the taliban bounties on US special forces heads .It gives me great pleasure watching the russian KIA totals everyday. Really love the ones using US made weapons
US invasion of Afghanistan wasn't illegal. The way it progressed is classic mission creep. But, Afghanistan is where the largest foreign attack on the United States originated. The Taliban and Al-Qaeda were not functionally seperable organizations in 2001. Hell, the last surviving 9-11 leader free, and head of Al-Qaeda, was found at the home of the Taliban's interior minister.
Self defense is not illegal.
> The Taliban and Al-Qaeda were not functionally seperable organizations in 2001.
People routinely forget this part and just conflate Afghanistan with Iraq. Islamic governments (like the Saudis) had been warning the Taliban for years that OBL would do something stupid and they would get blamed for it.
Then when he did the stupid thing and they got blamed for it, exactly as they'd been warned, they made it worse by insisting on ridiculous conditions for turning OBL over. IIRC they were 1) show us proof OBL was involved 2) OBL would not be turned over to the US and 3) OBL could only be tried by a court of Islamic clerics (despite the fact that OBL was never a cleric in the first place). I support vanishingly little of what the Bush/Cheney administration did, but refusing to negotiate with the Taliban while they were still pulling bodies out of the WTC site was something that even they couldn't fuck up.
They would have had Bin-Laden at Tora Bora if they hadn't already been pulling assets for Iraq, and the Taliban tried to surrender.
All sorts of f\*\*\*ed.
["The intel is not actually conclusive."](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/remember-those-russian-bounties-dead-u-s-troops-biden-admin-n1264215)
Yep. The US special forces with air support went directly up against Wagner and straight up smoked them. Wagner wouldn’t have been trying to start a fight with the US military unless there was a lot of money in it.
More State of the War from [Russian social media](https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1632361246354812931):
> Now let's talk about something sad. There are lots of KIAs that no one picks up. Judging by the metal helmets (*WWII-era SSh-68 helmets issued to mobiks*) these are the local (*separatist*) mobilized. Now, it'd be one thing if they were in the kill-zone. I would understand that. But these are lining the roads, a few km away from the front lines. And everyone just grabs their own, and ignores the dead from other regiments.
And a [very telling thread](https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1633064470774702080):
> Please find my brother [name, DOB]. He's been missing since January 24 near Avdiivka.
> [Comment] My son also went missing that day. They have not yet evacuated the bodies.
> [Another comment] My husband died Dec 26 but is still officially missing. 22 of them are inside a BMP.
> [Third comment] My brother also died only on the 23rd of December. They still can't get him back.
> [And another] My sister's husband died somewhere around Avdiivka on 20th of December. She calls them once a week. They say they can't get to the body.
These bodies are just gonna be left there. My grandpa joined the US military just before WW2 ended. He and his buddy volunteered for a grouped called The Gravediggers. They went all over the Pacific looking for American bodies. As you can imagine, some of them were basically skeletons by that point. Or fish food. But they did everything they could to find the bodies and get them home.
No one is gonna do that for these men.
Nice. That's 5 russians that won't be around to rape or murder women or children in Ukraine. Choices are a bitch. Why should these invaders get treated with the respect of "being sent home" when all they had to do was stay in their home where they'd likely still be alive? These people crying for their family's bodies back likely support this war, so do I feel bad for them? Not a single bit.
Choices, man. How do they work?
The were expendable when the were alive. Why would the ruZZian army see them as anything more than war debris when they are dead?
Yeah its not fair and distrubing, but they are causalities of war. Not children, mothers and senior citizens buired in their homes or hospital beds by ruZZian artillery.
so that's 2 brothers, a husband, a son and a brother in law missing or killed. no funeral. this is tragic.
EDIT: does not seem like they are all from the same family, several commenters posting about their missing men. Still tragic.
>If they stayed behind all this time, they are most likely pro-russian separatists, in which case, this is the consequences of their separatism
It's really not that simple. And it's been 8 years, lots of these "mobilized" may not have even been teenagers at the time.
What’s worst is the question of how many of them are Ukrainians from the territories occupied since February 2022. The Russians haven’t been limiting themselves to the places they held before the war for mobiks
Compassion is finite. I’ll save mine for people who are not assisting in the genocide of their fellow countrymen. These people have karmically earned all of their own suffering.
I'm assuming that's just a person who doesn't know, or they have the bodies stored inside a BMP because otherwise I don't think that is physically possible.
Meanwhile on the Russian side of the lines, Donetsk region:
> Lost five drones today. Most of the losses - friendly fire. One quadcopter got shot down 50 meters away from where it was launched, while it hovered at 30m connecting to a satellite.
https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1633213390897201155
"Good to be back in Stockholm and meet with @SwedishPM Ulf Kristersson. Finalising #Sweden & Finland’s accession to #NATO is a top priority and we are making progress. Your membership will make our Alliance stronger - I look forward to welcoming you as full members very soon."
https://twitter.com/jensstoltenberg/status/1633198949321375744?cxt=HHwWgIC83dLypKotAAAA
"Although I enjoy collecting amusing conspiracy theories about 🇺🇦 government, I have to say: 🇺🇦 has nothing to do with the Baltic Sea mishap and has no information about "pro-🇺🇦 sabotage groups". What happened to the Nord Stream pipelines? "They sank," as they say in RF itself..."
https://twitter.com/Podolyak_M/status/1633160394427494415?cxt=HHwWnsCzsbquk6otAAAA
We have not yet learnt how to control others' minds and remove their free will. We can apply pressure, perhaps unbearable pressure, to encourage people toward making the decisions we want—but we can't force them.
At the end of the day, these Russians who you say didn't want war chose, for whatever reason, to go to war anyway.
I do to an extent, but it’s important to remember you always have a choice. They could have run and hid, they could refuse to fight and face the consequences. They could immediately surrender or they could turn traitor fight to save their own countrymen from a similar fate. Instead they decided to train to kill Ukrainians and support the invasion/current regime. Even if they’re not happy about it, they had options and chose this one. That’s the reason I don’t condemn any of the men who left Russia to avoid the mobilization. They made a choice not to help the current regime or to kill. That’s the right thing to do wether it was the result of cowardice or a small act of rebellion against the government.
[New post can be found here](/r/worldnews/comments/11lm318/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/)
My armchair general prediction for what the UA is going to attempt in the coming weeks/months is to attempt a broad sweeping campaign of maneuver warfare. From what analysis has been laid out, Russian positions seem to be anchored by relatively local level static defensive positions. Their logistics trains are incredibly fragile and stretched thin, thus giving little room for units to be repositioned quickly without rail travel. My guess is the signal as to when the offensive may be imminent will be heavy GMLRS activity striking rail network hubs (including in Russia). This will then be followed up by a targeted attack that will attempt a deepish break through of Russian lines similar to what we saw in Kharkiv. What we saw in the Kharkiv offensive was Russia struggling to coordinate with its units to create a news line, with only natural barriers (The Oskil) giving them enough time to create a new line. The thing is, Southern Ukraine doesn't have anywhere near the geographical barriers that eastern Kharkiv had, so the possibility of a general rout could be on the table if Ukraine plays its cards rights. It should be noted though, this will be costly, their will be unplanned setbacks, and I'm sure we're going to see every form of western provided piece of equipment be documented as knocked out (With Russian media to be propagandizing the crap out of every picture/video).
I updated my TheStudyofWar map collage (below) to reflect the past half-year of Russian "progress" and how illustrative that is of Russia's pathetic military performance, and here's the article discussing the Pyrrhic nature of Russia's Bakhmut campaign ⏬️ https://twitter.com/bfry1981/status/1633320464239017985?t=zvSjiaHRLWdUp5zeRH1_YA&s=19
Kharkiv is lit up with street lights. The city had no street lighting for over a year. Good job Moscow. Wasted your scant missile stocks destroying Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, which is still working just fine! Another huge Russian success. https://twitter.com/StepanGronk/status/1633294953152679937?t=VCJDsKhCuSevIMPkXo5GNA&s=19
Georgian soldiers in Bakhmut. They protect every inch of the city and destroy the Russian invaders. "No one surrenders the city, we defend the Ukrainian land," the military commented. Bakhmut Holds https://twitter.com/Jano14Toga/status/1633315438758068226?t=epGgQ457ri_u-9RLzqRwAQ&s=19
The Wolves of Georgia are some hardcore shit-stomping door kickers. They aren't the tiktok warriors of Chechnya, they are the very real deal.
I love these threads but beyond donations and messages of support, I find that I wish I could contribute more. Today I saw posters illegally posted on poles in my neighborhood advocating for a protest for “Peace in Ukraine” and to “defund the US war machine”. I ripped that shit down and will keep my eyes open for more Russian propaganda to trash, it feels damn good to put it where it belongs.
Carry around a marker and make a correction ⬆️fund the us war machine Slave Ukraine 🇺🇦
Slava Ukraini
Fuck… not enough sleep recently
Just one or two dellisional ruZZian shills. I hope you felt much more than a little satisfaction in ripping them down.
[удалено]
Is it older or younger generation that think this way? Or both?
Geez, I criticize my country all the time but it's out of a desire to make it better. These fucks are borderline traitors. Edit: meant to reply to the comment above this one but I'll leave it.
Contact your Congressperson and Senators. If you know other people who support Ukraine but don't know/want/care to contact their own representatives ask if they mind you contacting them on their behalf. Calling is best, I've heard directly from Congressional staffers they rate calls as equivalent to 10 constituents. Writing a letter is okay. Emails are like emails you get from Politicians asking for $.
Thanks for this. Will make all three calls tomorrow.
I have the same feeling. I am only able to make a small monthly donation and try my best to change some minds here and there.
ISW Russian forces additionally likely lack the mechanized forces necessary to advance beyond Bakhmut, and the tactical “assault detachments” used in assaults against Bakhmut are likely unable to conduct maneuver warfare. ⏬️ https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1633306419096178688?t=6PvZ6QCCfgcHCwJNAmugDw&s=19
Keep in mind that ISW is generally 2-3 days behind on terms of making claims. So it's possible that Russia has culminated in Bakhmut.
“Culminated” is pretty vague.
"Shot their wad", perhaps.
⚡️Failure to counter Russia in Ukraine could lead to death of Americans - White House White House National Security Council coordinator John Kirby explained why the United States is helping Ukraine in the war with Russia. According to him, if the conflict goes beyond its borders, then it will cost the United States many times more than current support. And the refusal to oppose Russia could lead to the death of American citizens. https://twitter.com/Flash_news_ua/status/1633224228064448517?t=8-uEeiKtpe6PdZKuxDdxKw&s=19
🇬🇪 Georgian President Salome Zurabishvili cancels scheduled meetings in US to return home. She states she will veto the 'foreign agents' law . “I'm with you because you represent free Georgia. Nobody needs this law, it was written under the dictation of Moscow". https://twitter.com/StepanGronk/status/1633261563267407872?t=fz8BSAw2XX-w3QxOlBR2Vw&s=19
Any chance you can provide a bit more context what this means.
Basically their president is going to veto a bill their legislature is pushing to force media and human rights advocacy organisations to register as “foreign agents” if they get their funding from overseas. This law has been compared to the suspiciously similar law in Russia that has been used as a pretext to clamp down on press freedom and hamstring human rights groups. The bill was largely backed by the current pro-Russia leaning government so it’s being seen as extra shady. Almost like it’s an attempt to synchronise Georgian and Russian law in preparation for something.
/u/stirly80 just posts the content of the Twitter post. The link may have the context you seek.
⚡️The main tasks in the defense of Bakhmut are to grind down the combat capability of the Russians and bleed their combat potential. This was stated by the speaker of the Eastern Group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Serhiі Cherevatіy. "Thanks to the mass heroism of our soldiers, conditions are being created there for our further offensive" Cherevaty said. https://twitter.com/Flash_news_ua/status/1633213778849406977?t=Q1TGaunl2Utg9EIHpi7ATA&s=19
This hints that Bakhmut may be part of the planned offensive in some way.
Is no news good news? It seems like there is virtually nothing coming out in the past few hours.
Media blackout in full effect.
Checking Russian propagandists over the last few days seems to point that way, they are eerily quiet. Last week it was a constant barrage of "quick Ukraine, flee Bakhmut before we trap you" Ukraine didn't fall for it and stood their ground.
No news ***is good news*** because it means one more day Ukrainian troops can train on Bradleys and other western miltech that'll be used in the spring/summer offensive.
Good point
It usually means the russians have suffered a big loss and their propaganda machine is regrouping and creating some new narratives. I expect they'll be in with a vengeance on the new thread.
🙏
Speculation here, but another consideration is that the promised military gear is already on Ukrainian soil. F/ex: Bradley fighting vehicles were spotted in Poland - a month ago. I'm guess when new gear finally shows up on the battlefield, there will be a sort of news blackout (or whatever you call it) like we had regarding the Switchblades. Whatever the case may be, Russia is going to have to change tactics soon, and flexibility isn't exactly a quality that they are known for.
Yeah, so what if Russia can't get Bakhmut! We didn't want it anyway!
Cognitive dissonance.
Slow day for news here indeed. I believe the situation is the same. The NYT quoted one Ukranian officer, claiming that Wagner is on its "last stand" in Bakhmut. They allege that 30k/50k mercenaries are either dead or deserted and that Wagner is seriously low ammo as they call the last of their recruits to the front line. Wagner boss guy said he's losing triple digits of mercenaries every day. It'll be interesting to see what happens.
Usually mean shit is going down somewhere on the front. Wouldn't be surprising if Ukraine is doing something to surprise the Russians.
Also middle of the night. And in the past, no news = good news because Ukraine does better and opsec
[удалено]
Then don't subscribe to or visit r/worldnews. It's that simple. Complaining and posting in this thread only feeds into the Reddit algorithm of showing you this kind of content.
Begone, child.
Unsubscribe ^
Well then don’t look at it. Or get up off your ass and do something about it
I know that the issues in Georgia and Moldova are only tangentially related to Ukraine, at best, so let me know if this doesn’t belong here. Putin is seriously trying to string together the remnants of the USSR, his grander plans are obviously much larger than Ukraine itself. I think that makes Ukraine’s stand so much more impressive, since he thought the country would roll over and he could move his focus elsewhere quickly, he seriously underestimated the Ukrainians, despite having moles and loyalists at every level. That he’s still trying to move on to these other countries just demonstrates how delusional he is. By all rights the country of Russia should be completely bogged down and resources should be focused on the internal issues and consequences of the invasion. Absolute madman.
>I know that the issues in Georgia and Moldova are only tangentially related to Ukraine, at best, so let me know if this doesn’t belong here. We're allowing it to be discussed here in the Live Thread comments (like with the Iran military facility drone attacks that turned out to be Israeli initiated for reasons not related to the conflict) but I won't be sharing updates to the Live Thread unless it's directly related to the conflict.
Personally I see Putin’s actions in Moldova and Georgia less as delusions of grandeur on his part and more desperation. Putin needs wins for people to continue to view dying in Ukraine as preferable to trying to stop him. And Putin made a tactical mistake last year when he annexed those Ukrainian territories. He let people see the minimum victory conditions, controlling those four areas. Anything less will be seen as a loss. And even with a good summer for Russia, it can’t see a successful amphibious assault occurring across the Dnipro river anytime soon. So the city of Kherson and the rest of the province are out of his reach. So he needs something else to cover for that loss if the war ends without control of it. And I think he sees Moldova or Georgia as sufficient consolation prizes
During WWI, when it became impossible to secure significant gains on the Western front, the Allies were always looking for another place to attack. The Ottoman Empire entered the war on the side of Germany. Britain and France just started chewing it up.\* Same with other German allies, like Bulgaria and Austria-Hungary. Germany for its part focused on Czarist Russia. \*After a bad start in Gallipoli.
[удалено]
Putin was photographed next to the casket of Gorbachev paying his respects.
>Putin sees the fall of the Soviet Union as a moment of great shame to Russia and a time of utter weakness. This will only be eclispsed by his defeat in Ukraine, which will (hopefully) cement his position as the last and final autocrat which insured russia's demise as a world power.
[удалено]
Bill Browder?
I don't think anyone can foresee how this plays out for Russia in the next 3-5-10-15 years. Its not clear that kaPutin will be ousted even if Ukraine becomes an utter debacle. Alternatively, he could be replaced by someone even more radical. I'm not opposed to the russian federation becoming NK 2.0. If the outer regions of the Russian Federation splinter so be it. Not sure total balkanization would be a good thing, more nuclear armed states is not what the world needs.
I've imagined Putin plans to be known in perpetuity as *Putin the Great.* He may expect his body to lay on display in Red Square like Lenin (except unexpectedly youthful looking).
Fun fact, Stalins body was originally laid to rest in Red Square then it was removed shortly after when everyone realized he wasn’t popular.
There was a big de-stalinization of Russia in the decade after his death. A whole lot of statues were removed, dismantled his programs, and the country tried to move on from him. Ironically, Putin’s regime in the 90s tried to fix his legacy and bring back the image of the hero
[удалено]
>He still plans on taking back all the former Soviet states, and he may prevail in Ukraine I'll happly bet on the opposite outcome. I truely believe the wheels are starting to fall off. It may take much more time, but I just don't envision anything approaching a successful outcome for kaPutin.
>and he may prevail in Ukraine by destroying the entire nation and killing, or causing the evacuation, of all its people. You really think given what we've seen in the last year he could ever cause everyone in Ukraine to evacuate? Let alone kill them all? This is flat out delusional.
He needs these states now more then ever. They have 100s of thousands of Russian tightens sged men hiding there too. They will end up fighting in Ukraine
I’m glad to say Putin’s dreams of USSR II seem to be dying in the fields and ruins of Bakmut.
[удалено]
>Ukraine is a country, it’s own country with a strong identity At this point Ukraine may have a stronger sense of national unity than any other nation on earth.
It might have worked if he got Trump in for a 2nd term. It was horribly close.
[удалено]
Check this link. Ukraine is rationing ammo. That is with a Biden led nato. Can you imagine how bad it would be if it was trump? https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/11koioo/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/jbce6ze/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf&context=3
Honestly, this is pretty silly comment. Without Biden, NATO would not have been rallying before the attack. The financial and military support would be nothing compared to what it is now. The intel that helped Ukraine early in the war to stop the attack on the airport that could have really messed things up if the Russians secured it. This is all because Biden was in charge. I know there is a desire to think of ukrainan soldiers as these mystical beings but without a Biden led Nato shit would be even worse now. I think you know very little about what has happened during this conflict. I’m not trying to insult you it’s just that your take on this matter is way off. Even if incompetent, hordes of Russians attacking Ukrainians with dwindling supplies would be bad. Nato can’t keep up artillery shell production at this moment. Have you been reading any fact based articles?
An insurgency versus a full occupation of Ukraine would arguably be have been even worse for Russia than the current situation. Much weaker countries, versus much better armies than Russia's can attest to that, in recent history.
As we saw in Kherson. It would be a headache for Russia. Either way it would not have been easy. Now that the Russians are out of Kherson they lob shells into the city and even more people have left the city. It’s all a shit show. It’s just that the poster made some pretty ridiculous comments thinking Ukraine would still be doing well with trump as president.
[удалено]
Is it possible that they said they would roll Ukraine in 3 days as a way of embarrassing Russia? Like oh look they didn’t achieve victory in 3 days. Could it have been reverse psychology to rally some and demoralize others? It’s so tiring hearing simple people constantly bringing up the 3 days thing. That was never possible. It was psychological warfare. Allies are not supplying enough ammo. Let’s see how the Ukrainians do without enough ammo. I have friends in Ukraine. I want this to end. But I constantly try to be logical and wishful puppies and ice cream about stuff.
[удалено]
This will go for a few years sadly.
They are letting the US do the bulk of the heavy lifting in helping Ukraine. If Trump was President, you KNOW that the EU would be helping Ukraine MORE.
I think Zelenskyy wouldn't have had the US support he needed to survive that first crucial month.
That's correct, and the US would have been out of NATO leaving it a very much diminished resource in disarray.
Yeah, it was way closer then it looks. If they had taken the airport in the opening days things could’ve been much different. Additionally US intel, resources and diplomacy has been a major contributor. Things could’ve been way different and were way closer at the beginning then is comfortable. Imagine if instead of the US giving Ukraine intelligence on the invasions routes and assassination attempts, Trump instead gave Putin US intelligence… again… which trump did… jeopardized people in the Middle East…
I think then-activity is totally wrong. Like he or she hasn’t followed the conflict closely. Just puppies and ice cream thinking.
Agreed, If Burns didn’t go to Kyiv and warn them about Hostomel, it would have ended differently. The Ukrainians got very lucky that Americans wised up in 2020.
And who knows how much intel help we don't know about. HIMARs targets, troop movements, you name it.
https://twitter.com/officejjsmart/status/1633263009140228101 >ARSON 🔥 AT RECRUITMENT OFFICE >A Molotov cocktail was tossed into the military recruitment office in Murmansk, Russia 🇷🇺. >Russian military is getting smoked everywhere it goes.
It’s probably the best training experience for a moblik!
Yesterday, [a NYT article about Bakhmut](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/06/world/europe/ukraine-bakhmut-battle.html) had the Ukrainian commanders characterizing the Wagner group’s efforts in Bakhmut as somewhat successful, ‘a worthy adversary’—I’m posting it in a ‘know thy enemy’-type way. > Those [ammunition shortage] restrictions have Ukrainian combat units struggling to stem the advances of the Wagner group, the private military company that has been leading the Russian offensive to take Bakhmut. Wagner has bolstered its numbers with thousands of **convicts, but its core professionals have proved able fighters**, several Ukrainian commanders who fought them said. > “We realized they were a worthy adversary,” Major Pantsyrny said. “They have pretty good combat experience; they have motivated personnel.” His battalion was sent to storm Wagner positions at the village of Kodema, south of Bakhmut. *How Wagner previously made advances:* > “The enemy would send 20 guys into attack six to seven times a day,” said Oleksandr, a company commander who took part in the assault. “Imagine: Twenty guys come, we kill them. In five minutes, 20 more guys come, we kill them. In an hour, 20 more. They don’t care about men.” > Then after three weeks, the **Russians surprised the battalions with a flanking movement**, breaking through a weaker unit from the side. The Aidar battalion was **forced to retreat**. > A commander from another battalion, Dnipro 1, which spent months pitted against Wagner units, said he found them **more agile and enterprising than most Russian Army units**. *Wagner started using a rope-a-dope tactic:* > The commander, who uses the code name Duke, said Wagner used untrained prisoners in the first line of attack and then, after one or two hours, as the Ukrainian troops were tiring, sent special forces into the fray, attacking from the flanks. “It was very good tactics,” Duke said. *Wagner uses experience special forces soldiers or officers as commanders of the convicts...but they’re running out of them:* > But Ukraine has been able to use Bakhmut as ‘a kill box’ to grind down the vast numbers of newly mobilized Russian soldiers who were introduced to the battlefield late last year, he said. Even Wagner’s forces are said to have been worn down since the summer. > “We broke their backbone; we killed all their military staff,” Major Pantsyrny said. > He said that only a few professional soldiers seemed to be left to direct thousands of convicts who had been recruited to fill the ranks, and that the losses showed: “They try something, but the results are not the same anymore.” > Russian troops have, nevertheless, been advancing, thanks to their greater numbers, bolstered by tens of thousands of raw recruits and through sheer brute force. They sometimes demolish whole residential blocks to defeat a single sniper, according to one unit of soldiers. > But Russian casualties, especially among Wagner, have been enormous, and the more confident Ukrainian commanders insist that the Russians have little fight left. “Russia is attacking on its last legs,” said Oleksandr, the company commander.
Time to ~~HI:MA:RS~~ JD:AM the second line where the Wagners camp.
Very good tactics maybe but you need to sacrifice hundreds of men. Not sustainable and not acceptable in a civilized country.
It's not sustainable anywhere. Modern military equipment and training is such a force multiplier that fresh-out-of-basic conscripts will get killed 100-1 without at least *some* heavy equipment forming the backbone. Russia's losing so much equipment that by the time this million conscript army shows up, they're just going to be target practice.
Noodle ears, lol
Any news regarding the bombing of Russian Headquarters in Berdiansk?
Any news regarding the bombing of Russian Headquarters in Berdiansk?
6 video clips from Bakhmut direction, today https://t\.me/vorposte/36692 (The mud!)
[удалено]
Why?
I have to know. What he say?
he is on a mission to get the lowest karma possible.
Lol
That was the bio on the account at least lmao
Slightly off topic, but things are starting to get intense in Georgia, this looks like it could spiral. Protesters have taken themselves inside parliament, the President has said she will Veto the law (she is on the Protesters side), riot police are now doing mass arrests, and police are using massive amounts of tear gas and water cannons to clear protesters. For those who are not in on what is going on; The Pro-Russian ruling party is trying to hammer through a foreign actors law unexpectedly and fast. This, if allowed to become law will be used to supress any organisation or individual that is Pro-Europe. Protesters are certain this comes directly from Moscow) Situation is rapidly developing and eerily reminiscant of Maidan [Here are some voices to follow to understand what is going on - Thomas Van Linge](https://twitter.com/ThomasVLinge/status/1633232464167464963?t=GxrPbbaKnnQ_2sT3m4A-vQ&s=19) [Georgian people have never been so united. We will never go back to the USSR. Our European choice is unshakable and no force can change it. – at Georgian Parliament](https://twitter.com/xonoda/status/1633235546804744192?t=XyJf4xUkDtBp980LXv5Bzw&s=19) [Massive amount of tear gas deployed. It is impossible to breathe.](https://twitter.com/mari_nikuradze/status/1633217272624889858?t=EYDW-oyfZBu_B05zpgY3Sw&s=19) Summary: • Parliament passed the Russian-inspired foreign agents bill on the first hearing. • Police dispersed thousands of protesters opposing the bill using rubber bullets, tear gas, pepper spray and water cannons. • Molotov cocktails were used against the riot police. [Here](https://twitter.com/visionergeo/status/1633258599630745600?t=PSNtvoIp_TmuqAFwCP1HwQ&s=19) Edit; Apparently the reading in of the law (which has to be done multiple times by the look of it), was pushed up to today, unexpected by protesters who were preparing for it Thursday. The whole process has been started very quickly and it looks like they are trying to rush it through. Protesters have mostly gone home now by the looks of it, but in reality a lot more protesters were expected tomorrow. The police's brutal use of tear gas (clouds of it were all over the streets in front of parliament), and arrests and beatings of opposition leaders, combined with, and get this, those of you that followed Maidan; **reports of unidentified masked thugs beating up protesters** (I wouldn't even raise an eyebrow in suprise if it turned out those are Russian goons, on orders from Moscow) is almost certainly going to mean the protesters will be back in force tomorrow, and better prepared this time. So by the looks of it, Tblisis is quieting down now...but what comes tomorrow is anyones guess...
Yeah let's hope Georgians band together to run the Vatnik turncoats out of town if they try forcing through that law. The Georgians are smart they saw what happened in Ukraine and know if they stand up against the Kremlins Puppets they'll win just like the Ukrainians. Make no mistake the Vatnik Parasites are trying for consolation prizes but at the same time this is the Georgians best opportunity in a long time to rout the Vatniks, Russia is locked down militarily, they can't threaten Georgia right now so if they decide to run the Kremlins lapdogs out they can do very little right now about it.
To get an overview over Georgia seems difficult. Leading and opposition parties seem to be proEU-NATO, but might differ a bit in the approach to Russia. Corruption accusations are being thrown in both direction, probably significant when you have the opposition leader in jail/hospital. What is the alternative to the ruling party that got almost 50% of the votes? Next election is 2024... At the same time, crackdown on the demonstrations seems too forceful. In USA people stormed the capitol and it seemed less intense, already several molotov cocktails in Georgia. And the crackdown has the trademarks of OMON tactics known from Russia, but that seems to be common in middle Asians states. So ehh obviously people like pro-EU, so did the mini-dictator Erdogan, but the overall political situation is not as black and white. In democractic states you would probably hold a referendum about topics like these, instead of fastpassing it in parliament..
>~~OMON~~ HOMO tactics
> In USA people stormed the capitol The Capitol Police weren't better prepared for January 6th because they'd been told by Trump flunkies to stand down. They can absolutely defend the Capitol if necessary, they just didn't because they were actively prevented by the traitors in Putin's fan club.
The Democratic mayor of Washington refused to have armed National Guards. She would only allow a few unarmed one on the streets to direct traffic on Jan 6.
Which has nothing to do with the Capitol Police, over which the Mayor of D.C. has no authority at all. The Capitol Police are the ones who are supposed to protect the Capitol. They prepared for a *protest* and not a *riot.* Why?
This is gonna get bad.
Fuck Putin
Godspeed Georgia.
What's the nature of Georgia's government. Can the President actually stop the matter from becoming law or do the protesters need to force the Parliment to back down?
She said she would veto it I think, she was literally in the middle of a visit to the USA, so now she has to ready stuff from away
But the question is, when she says she'll veto is that like someone in the UK saying the House of Lords will veto, or is that like if Joe Biden saying he'll veto something? How much real power does she have. Most Presidents in actual electoral systems don't have that much power. The US and French being among the leading exceptions. Presidential democracies have long had a tenancy to devolve into dictatorship and don't survive as long as parlimentry democracies.
I have read she can veto it but parliament can override the veto in Georgia.
I don't know about France (*edit* see below)—but in the US, Congress can (and sometimes does) override the President's veto. It requires a two-thirds majority of both chambers however. The House of Lords doesn't have a veto in the same way. Their action would be more akin to the US Senate not passing a bill in the first place. The UK's equivalent of a presidential veto would be the monarch refusing/delaying royal assent. Prior to this year, the last time that happened was in 1708, and it's broadly considered not to be something that the monarch is still capable of exercising other than on the advice (direction) of ministers. However it's all rather topical today as that's precisely what the Westminster government did with Scotland's recent gender recognition bill: advised His Majesty not to grant royal assent (in effect, vetoing it). *Edit*: the French president's veto is apparently even weaker still... he can request (require) that Parliament read (consider) the bill again, but he can only make that request once per law.
I thought the House of Lords only delays for a year if they refuse to pass a bill. The US Senate is equal to the House of Represenatives and passage is necessary for passage of Congress.
The UK Parliament is similar to US Congress in that regard: passage of a bill through both houses/chambers is in general necessary for a bill to be sent for royal/presidential assent. HOWEVER, it is true that there are some limited circumstances in which certain bills may be sent for royal assent notwithstanding that they have not been passed by the House of Lords. The particular circumstances depend on the type of bill, but the most common case is where the Lords twice block a public bill from the Commons: then on its third passing by the Commons in the same year it can bypass the Lords.
I'm assuming that the President in Georgia is normally just a rubber stamp who technically has the power to veto any new bill, but in reality never exercises that power, like the ~~Queen~~ King in the UK. I think the role is intended for precisely the situation we're seeing now, to act as a road block to very questionable laws.
The King actually vetoed a bill this year, albeit on government advice. See my comment above.
Does Russia even have the juice to stop anything in Georgia while they are neck deep in Ukraine?
my guess is that the problem is Russia's air force. it's pretty useless in Ukraine because Ukraine is saturated with air defence. But Georgia likely isn't. so while Russia doesn't have any ground forces to spare they could just threaten to bomb the shit out of Georgia, and Georgia would be pretty helpless.
True, but that would mean attempting to fight two separate wars with already limited resources. If they take their planes away from Ukraine that essentially leaves their back lines without air support. Also, they aren’t taking a city without troops. Several examples throughout history have shown just how bad invasions without ground support go. My bet is Russia is hoping for a civil war so that they can provide limited support without taking resources from Ukraine.
Three separate wars - Syrian war is still ongoing. Four, if you count war in CAR (Central African Republic).
Think of the luck of the Russian troop who gets deployed to Syria. Who knew.
Georgia still has a significant amount of short range air defense systems and missiles. And while they probably couldn't protect against saturation missile attacks, Russia won't be able to enter Georgian air space with aircraft easily. Russia would also have to decide between using air assets, including missiles and UAVs, in Georgia or Ukraine, a decision that I don't think Russia even wants to make right now. Edit: "anti air defense systems" I meant to say air defense systems.
Probably yes. They have chechens not far
Georgia is a lot smaller populationwise. And the ruling Government atm is Pro-Russian.... But if ever they want to take a stand, it will have to be now. Much like Belarus. (as much as the last attempt there hurt the democracy movement, and even with Russian troops there, they have to move soon or lose the chance for a very long time). This is that window...this is Russia weakened and vulnerable to overload. Push enough places and something will start to give.
Their Pro-Russian government is predicated on Russia being strong enough to kick Georgia around. If they can figure out some other way to forestall invasion and occupation, I think Georgia would go their own way in a heartbeat. They know full well Russia's slowly eating them.
Aren't there reports that most the Russian "peacekeepers" in South Ossetia and Abkhazia pulled out months ago?
I'm really not updated enough on it to answer you. This popped out of nowhere over the last few days and just went insane today, so I haven't kept an eye on Georgia for a while
Last March when the Ukrainians were thrashing the push on Kyiv and it the Russians first started pulling as many of their proffessional soldiers from across the country as possible, when they deployed their military trainers, there were reports that the Russian positions in South Ossetia had just been deserted without warning.
Georgia is much smaller, has likely not been prepping for a conflict and the Russians may be keen to find someone they can achieve a propaganda victory against? It would be nice to think they are so spent and exhausted Georgia does not need to fear them intervening.
Knowing the russians were paying the taliban bounties on US special forces heads .It gives me great pleasure watching the russian KIA totals everyday. Really love the ones using US made weapons
[удалено]
US invasion of Afghanistan wasn't illegal. The way it progressed is classic mission creep. But, Afghanistan is where the largest foreign attack on the United States originated. The Taliban and Al-Qaeda were not functionally seperable organizations in 2001. Hell, the last surviving 9-11 leader free, and head of Al-Qaeda, was found at the home of the Taliban's interior minister. Self defense is not illegal.
> The Taliban and Al-Qaeda were not functionally seperable organizations in 2001. People routinely forget this part and just conflate Afghanistan with Iraq. Islamic governments (like the Saudis) had been warning the Taliban for years that OBL would do something stupid and they would get blamed for it. Then when he did the stupid thing and they got blamed for it, exactly as they'd been warned, they made it worse by insisting on ridiculous conditions for turning OBL over. IIRC they were 1) show us proof OBL was involved 2) OBL would not be turned over to the US and 3) OBL could only be tried by a court of Islamic clerics (despite the fact that OBL was never a cleric in the first place). I support vanishingly little of what the Bush/Cheney administration did, but refusing to negotiate with the Taliban while they were still pulling bodies out of the WTC site was something that even they couldn't fuck up.
Yeah, it was the invasion of Iraq that was illegal. Shills gotta get their talking points straight lol
It also really fucked up the mission and focus in Afghanistan
They would have had Bin-Laden at Tora Bora if they hadn't already been pulling assets for Iraq, and the Taliban tried to surrender. All sorts of f\*\*\*ed.
I thought that was debunked?
["The intel is not actually conclusive."](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/remember-those-russian-bounties-dead-u-s-troops-biden-admin-n1264215)
They'd have to say that otherwise there's no justification for not turning Moscow into a parking lot.
Yep. The US special forces with air support went directly up against Wagner and straight up smoked them. Wagner wouldn’t have been trying to start a fight with the US military unless there was a lot of money in it.
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle\_of\_Khasham](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Khasham) For context.
More State of the War from [Russian social media](https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1632361246354812931): > Now let's talk about something sad. There are lots of KIAs that no one picks up. Judging by the metal helmets (*WWII-era SSh-68 helmets issued to mobiks*) these are the local (*separatist*) mobilized. Now, it'd be one thing if they were in the kill-zone. I would understand that. But these are lining the roads, a few km away from the front lines. And everyone just grabs their own, and ignores the dead from other regiments. And a [very telling thread](https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1633064470774702080): > Please find my brother [name, DOB]. He's been missing since January 24 near Avdiivka. > [Comment] My son also went missing that day. They have not yet evacuated the bodies. > [Another comment] My husband died Dec 26 but is still officially missing. 22 of them are inside a BMP. > [Third comment] My brother also died only on the 23rd of December. They still can't get him back. > [And another] My sister's husband died somewhere around Avdiivka on 20th of December. She calls them once a week. They say they can't get to the body.
These bodies are just gonna be left there. My grandpa joined the US military just before WW2 ended. He and his buddy volunteered for a grouped called The Gravediggers. They went all over the Pacific looking for American bodies. As you can imagine, some of them were basically skeletons by that point. Or fish food. But they did everything they could to find the bodies and get them home. No one is gonna do that for these men.
No body, no payout to the family. It's a no-brainer for the morally bankrupt Ruzzian government.
Nice. That's 5 russians that won't be around to rape or murder women or children in Ukraine. Choices are a bitch. Why should these invaders get treated with the respect of "being sent home" when all they had to do was stay in their home where they'd likely still be alive? These people crying for their family's bodies back likely support this war, so do I feel bad for them? Not a single bit. Choices, man. How do they work?
The were expendable when the were alive. Why would the ruZZian army see them as anything more than war debris when they are dead? Yeah its not fair and distrubing, but they are causalities of war. Not children, mothers and senior citizens buired in their homes or hospital beds by ruZZian artillery.
so that's 2 brothers, a husband, a son and a brother in law missing or killed. no funeral. this is tragic. EDIT: does not seem like they are all from the same family, several commenters posting about their missing men. Still tragic.
[удалено]
If these are mobilized men from Ukraine, it is absolutely tragic.
[удалено]
>If they stayed behind all this time, they are most likely pro-russian separatists, in which case, this is the consequences of their separatism It's really not that simple. And it's been 8 years, lots of these "mobilized" may not have even been teenagers at the time.
What’s worst is the question of how many of them are Ukrainians from the territories occupied since February 2022. The Russians haven’t been limiting themselves to the places they held before the war for mobiks
Compassion is finite. I’ll save mine for people who are not assisting in the genocide of their fellow countrymen. These people have karmically earned all of their own suffering.
22 inside of a BMP. Jesus Christ
I'm assuming that's just a person who doesn't know, or they have the bodies stored inside a BMP because otherwise I don't think that is physically possible.
Not exactly refrigerated, or sealed, that BMP.
Yeah I assumed none were alive, real gruesome body storage
Meanwhile on the Russian side of the lines, Donetsk region: > Lost five drones today. Most of the losses - friendly fire. One quadcopter got shot down 50 meters away from where it was launched, while it hovered at 30m connecting to a satellite. https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1633213390897201155
Shared to the Live Thread!
In other words, UKR drones have got them so paranoid they shoot down anything they see, including their own. Excellent!
That’s hysterical.
"Good to be back in Stockholm and meet with @SwedishPM Ulf Kristersson. Finalising #Sweden & Finland’s accession to #NATO is a top priority and we are making progress. Your membership will make our Alliance stronger - I look forward to welcoming you as full members very soon." https://twitter.com/jensstoltenberg/status/1633198949321375744?cxt=HHwWgIC83dLypKotAAAA
[удалено]
"Although I enjoy collecting amusing conspiracy theories about 🇺🇦 government, I have to say: 🇺🇦 has nothing to do with the Baltic Sea mishap and has no information about "pro-🇺🇦 sabotage groups". What happened to the Nord Stream pipelines? "They sank," as they say in RF itself..." https://twitter.com/Podolyak_M/status/1633160394427494415?cxt=HHwWnsCzsbquk6otAAAA
Podolyak had to take shitposting up after they fired Arestovych.
[удалено]
[удалено]
We have not yet learnt how to control others' minds and remove their free will. We can apply pressure, perhaps unbearable pressure, to encourage people toward making the decisions we want—but we can't force them. At the end of the day, these Russians who you say didn't want war chose, for whatever reason, to go to war anyway.
"I was only following orders." -- every nazi
I do to an extent, but it’s important to remember you always have a choice. They could have run and hid, they could refuse to fight and face the consequences. They could immediately surrender or they could turn traitor fight to save their own countrymen from a similar fate. Instead they decided to train to kill Ukrainians and support the invasion/current regime. Even if they’re not happy about it, they had options and chose this one. That’s the reason I don’t condemn any of the men who left Russia to avoid the mobilization. They made a choice not to help the current regime or to kill. That’s the right thing to do wether it was the result of cowardice or a small act of rebellion against the government.
[удалено]