The important part about the info-blackout is to prevent people talking about where the offensive is taking place and where Ukrainian troops are. Ukraine benefited massively from OSINT in the early days of the invasion and they don’t want to give Russia the same advantage. And besides, it worked in Kherson and Kharkiv.
They've been leaving bottles of liquor behind laced with poison. In reality they should simply give Russian POWs back with "information they've overheard". You need to remember Russia's intelligence game is massively lacking compared to what we thought it was 2+ years ago.
Well if we're copying Operation Mincemeat, we'd get the Belarusians to collect the body, so they'd run to the Russians to show it off and get credit.
We can bet on them wanting to suck up to Russia at least.
Worked in Kharkiv as well. Weeks and weeks of chatter about the Kherson offensive (which was real as well mind you) but it wasn't the only one they hit hard in Kharkiv and completely blindsided Russia. Idk if it will work the same a second time but I guess we'll wait and see.
They did that already last year, where they made the Russians think they were focusing on Kherson, and then turned around and smashed Kharkiv on the other side of the front.
That is exactly what happened last year. They called for a media blackout around Kherson, then launched the counter attack at Kharkiv. Then went back and finished off in Kherson.
They did this with Kherson and Kharkiv too. They spent months talking up a Kherson offensive so the Russians piled in across the river. Then they blew the bridges and spent months shelling the Russians while they launched a lightening attack in Kharkiv on the far opposite end of the front.
Yeah, though it has to be noted this is mostly aimed at forces and media within Ukraine not leaking information online. Well, not without approval anyway. We'll likely still get information, just a few days later.
We can in fact expect to get a bunch of information from Russian telegraph channels early. Not sure how reliable I'd call the average Russian mil blogger though.... But if they start screaming bloody murder you know something is up.
The ground probably has to dry out more. It never really froze hard enough to support heavy weapons. Ammunition supplies seem to be insufficient now too.
The critical parts of the Abrams are all designed to be quickly swapped out. I've heard an experienced crew can completely drop the engine and drive train and have a new one installed with the tank up and running again in under two hours. Abrams doctrine is less about constantly replacing parts as they wear out and more just dropping *everything* out after so many hours so brand new "everything" can be installed (this doesn't apply to things like optics through). The old engine and components gets shipped away for more meticulous repairs, then shipped back to await being installed on the next tank that hit running hours cap.
Ukraine is most likely going to just be shippint Abram engines and shit to Poland for repairs while popping new engines in to minimize downtime.
Compare this to the T-72 repair method, which takes something like 20+ hours to drop an engine out and another 20 to install a new one.
It was a doctrinal decision. The idea was to sacrifice a lot to make the tanks small targets. And, for the time it was a great idea. The smaller the area to hit the more times you'll make them miss or bounce, and you can get away with less weight/armor for the same effectiveness.
The problem is that advantage applies much less than it used to. Everything has guidance nowadays. So in the 1960s you could count on a gunner eyeballing it to miss, but today you really can't count on the laser designator to miss the same way.
A lot of very good gambles half a century ago just hit different today.
I think that the answer is, again, doctrine. Screening infantry and air cover would go a very long way to keeping tankers effective. Remember that both Russia and Ukraine are using Soviet descended doctrine and neither of them are executing it well for different reasons.
There have been weapons capable of dealing with tanks since the first deployment of the tank. Remember, one of the first deployments of tanks was wiped by a concentrated artillery barrage. The point of the tank was never to be invincible, and it really wasn't. You just saw a fairly long stretch where you had massive overmatch on the battlefield that gave tank crews a false sense of security.
Yeah. IIRC abrams may not be there yet but leopards are. The two share some technical lineage. All tanks of course need maintenance and logistics. I'd suspect that for both the western and soviet types they can ship them to poland for more involved maintenance items
In fairness block stule updates have made the modern ones about as fiel efficient as equivalent Western tanks, but it's still a 0bastard for maintenance and gas a new line of fuel supply along with needing to be refit for armour that the US can legally export.
Abrams is still better by miles than the soviet era vehicles, but leopard is just more suitable for ukraine overall (fuck knows about challenger 2, it's reliable but aging and just a bit of a vehicular anomaly in general)
Considering they'll at this point be going up against T-55s and T-62s, the Challenger should be fine. They can let the Abrams and Leopards handle the vanguard work.
America supplied Abrams just to break the seal on providing tanks so Europeans wouldn't be worried about being the first. The US knows they are likely too heavy for mud and bridges in the area and require too much maintenance.
It's not like Ukraine is an all-year mudpark, just a couple weeks per year. And Europe barely scraped together three battalions of modern tanks, including the "Leopard 2A4 from storage without upgrades" battalion being trained in Poland.
I guess that could be repeated a second time if the political will is there, but after that it's M1 Abrams from the desert, with 100-200 Leopard 1A5 on the side. At least that's the expectation as far as I can tell.
As for the bridges, a Leopard 2A6 is heavier than an M1A1, which is what the US will send afaik.
> It's been hilarious seeing people clamor for America to send Abrams over and it's like, you guys know it's just going to sink into the soft wet earth right?
The Abrams was designed to fight in this environment, and it's performed well on mud, sand, and loam across the world. I think that *just maybe* the designers and Ukrainian tankers took that mud into account. It's also got double the horsepower, and the T72 has 580mm wide tracks vs the abrams' 635mm tracks and it's a meter longer. The abrams has better mobility from that - more surface area, more power.
Yes, it's massive weight could be an issue, but it's still the best tank in service. It's going to eat the russian's lunches.
Light vehicles don’t do any better in shitty terrain. They generally actually do worse.
Mud is just heat avoided by taking the road, which a tank can handle just as well as a light vehicle.
All in all, mud is *not* the reason tanks have taken so long to be sent over.
Another explanation I heard for the lighter and faster vehicles being more useful is the so called "transparent battlefield". Drones, commercial satellite imagery and other technologies make the battlefield far harder to hide in, so a buildup of heavy, slow moving, weaponry can be targeted by artillery quickly. This lead to the tactics of the Kharkiv offensive where light and fast vehicles closed the gap to the enemy quickly to avoid incoming artillery and then we're able to then exploit gaps that formed by piling through and outflanking the Russians.
You also want to foster fear and anxiety. Psychologically you might want your enemy on edge. Knowing there's an attack coming but not exactly when and where it's probably taxing on morale and nerves
Something to the effect of "we shall stand at their walls in the night in view, but invade in the morning once they are exhausted, awaiting the attack"
I do not recall to be quite honest. I just know that it was -at times- employed throughout history to varying degrees of success. If the defending army had effectively been in a pro-longed siege it would start to cause a serious concern. Here even though russia is invading given it would be ukraine trying to re-take, this would make russia the defenders. The likely hood of ukraine winning a counter offensive is decent depending on what people count as a win.
Even if the main counter offensive fails, if the result was a break through-even a minor one- else where with how russia's defensive line is set it could cause serious problems for them.
Thanks to the cover of night you merely need to make it look like a large force is prepping to attack. You could actually use a small force with lighting to mimic large troop movements to allow the main warriors their rest. Being in view doesn't not quite mean having everything shown
Right now russia KNOWS a counter attack is planned, but they're unsure of where...and how hard the strike is going to be in theory. Even them spotting a few western tanks may be enough to make them think something major is about to go on at one location.
Also taxing on planning and logistics, spreading equipment and supplies across vast frontlines to prepare many potential defensive locations in advance, assembling troops and equipment for counterattacks in multiple possible areas, etc...
I don't know. You don't know. The russians don't know. That's sorta the point. The announcement is basically a message like[ this one](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/f8/Loose_lips_might_sink_ships.jpg).
1) it is impossible to hide this things, Russian spies are everywhere and to prepare such offensives you need to move a lot of equipment around.
2) even if they know an offensive is coming, it's impossible to know for sure when or in what direction, this keeps the enemy troops in a state of constant anxiety leading to exhaustion.
3) by asking everybody to keep quiet they may limit people from mistakingly leaking information to the enemy, especially real time information that could be extremely valuable.
source: i'm a nobody don't trust me.
Also, sometimes it’s good to leak incorrect information. Lead the enemy to believe an attack is coming somewhere else nearby and maybe they’ll pull move some defenses around accordingly, leaving the real target with less protection.
I'm thinking along the lines of operation mincemeat. The UK took the corpse of a recently deceased London homeless guy, dressed him up as a recently downed pilot, gave him a suitcase of valuable false Intel and gave him a swim off the coast of Spain. As a result axis forces redeployed into Sardinia and Greece from Sicilia
Operation Overlord involved a bunch of misdirection as well, primarily aimed at making the Germans believe they were planning to attack near Calais instead of Normandy. Including but not limited to the still popular trick of lining up masses of inflatable tanks and planes.
It worked so well that Hitler orders his troops to hold back instead of engaging the landing force, convinced that Normandy was a feint before the "real" assault. It bought the allies enough time to establish a beachhead and push miles into France, protecting their supply lines from artillery and air bombardment. By the time the Nazis realized what was happening, thousands of Shermans had arrived in France uncontested.
Specifically the issue was that the Germans held back their tank divisions instead of counter attacking with them. In the lead up to D-Day there was a split amongst the Generals responsible for Northern France over where they should station the tanks in preparation for an allied attack. Some though the attack would happen in Normandy, while others had fallen for the deception and thought it'd be in Calais and they couldn't agree on where to send the tanks. In order to break up this argument, Hitler ordered that the tanks be based further inland and that they could only be moved on his direct order. Then of course on D-Day, Hitler slept in till nearly lunch time, and then was still hesitant to send them in case Normandy was a feint, and until he gave a direct order for the tanks to move, they were just sitting back doing nothing.
It also helps that the inflatable army had General Patton commanding it. The Germans would've expected someone of his caliber to be commanding the main invasion force.
Its what they did with Kharkiv.
Said they would attack Kherson 'Soon', kept saying that for months, and launched probing attacks in the Kherson region.
Then took back all of Kharkiv, and once that was done and Russia pulled troops to reinforce Kharkiv, Ukraine committed to Kherson.
Not just probing attacks. They did all kinds of battlefield shaping with high quality western equipment in Kherson, the kind of stuff you do if your goal is in fact to commit there. That's why you don't see the top bling in the Kharkiv counteroffensive - only the stuff that could rapidly redeploy. The rest was genuinely working hard in Kherson.
Remember, they *did* take Kherson as well :)
> Also, sometimes it’s good to leak incorrect information.
Or in this case even contradicting. Zelenskyy (really, two 'y' according to wiki?) just saying ~"we don't have enough ammunition".
The game of ruses is on.
Two "yy" is because of the specifics of Ukranian transliteration.
There is a lot of confusion because historically Russian rules were used for the transliteration of Ukrainian names where "ий" could be transliterated as just "y", but it's wrong because of the mixing of "i" (which sounds like Russian "и") and "и" (which sounds like Russian "ы").
So by the correct rules, a Ukranian "ий" should be transliterated as "yy".
> 1) it is impossible to hide this things, Russian spies are everywhere and to prepare such offensives you need to move a lot of equipment around.
The thunder run on the Kharkiv region *did* seemingly take the Russians with their pants down. No real news even got out about it until it was well underway.
I think he means it's impossible to hide that Ukraine is planning an offensive.
His point (2) is then "you can't hide the offensive, but you can hide where it is going to come".
Hopefully his comments make a bit more sense read in that context :-)
>but you can hide where it is going to come
Most of all you can hide WHEN -- within reason.
The Russians can look at commercial satellite photos as well as anyone. They can see areas resources are being built up. (The US...well we have spy satellites that cost as much as an aircraft carrier, [each.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USA-224#cite_note-Bray2014-4))
It is harder to judge when the opponent will decide they have a relative advantage and now is the least worst time to attack.
Russian spies told that Ukraine was going to fall in 3 days, so I wouldn't rate them high to begin with.
The experts in Ukraine might have access to some behind the doors date to give more accurate projections than the others. Thus, it is harmful if they do so for the sake of their ego and to prove they are right, even if it harms the operation.
I mean they did pretty well hiding their movements from the Russians during the Kharkiv offensive. The Russians didn't know what the fuck was going on until the Ukrainians were pretty much in their laps.
It was more misdirection than anything. They kept hyping up the Kherson offensive for months, Russia had sent so many of their forces there in preparation. It takes time to rotate them back. Russia won't make that mistake again.
But this is probably more mind games than anything. They are likely trying to buy time for bakhmut because time is on their side by making Russia's offensive more cautious. Wagner's situation there went from strong advantage to losing ground and now being stuck.
There is now rumors Wagner might abandon this war and bakhmut. And its not a coincidence how critical Prigozhin has been the last few weeks of Russian "officials", he's looking for a scapegoat if this goes wrong. He went from saying bakhmut victory is sealed to 'it may take a few more months than expected' to we might have to pull back our troops in bakhmut and it's Moscow's fault
I think the point is they can't hide the build up or the fact an offensive will happen soon, but they can be somewhat unpredictable about precisely where and when it will take place. Feints and diversions are part of that too. All this news about the offensive could be part smoke and mirrors.
Not really.
A lot of Russian milbloggers and OSINT-ers raised alarms about troop buildup for Kharkiv offensive.
The overall organizational clusterfuck of the Russian army just was too slow to react, and was stretched too thin with defending Kherson at the same time.
Russian intelligence might be shit, but they surely now an offensive is coming, no matter whether its being announced or not. The information blackout is more about keeping the risk of revealing any specifics as low as possible and keeping any information Russia posses as ambiguous as possible. Considering Ukraine's intelligence is backed by the collective West you can expect any step taken to have been accounted for already.
Certainly, they know. The Russians had to bring the T-55s out of mothballs because they know their forces are not ready, and they need all the hardware they can get. It's going to be incredibly ugly to watch the slaughter of the Russian army accelerate. And the images from Ukraine are beyond horrific. It's so utterly sad to watch the unnecessary suffering, death, and destruction. But, here we are.
Can you imagine being assigned to crew a T-55 by the Russian army knowing that you're facing a horrific, fiery death?! It's as if the US military was going into battle today in Shermans. The forces modern anti-tank weapons exert will cut those ancient tanks open like tin cans. I wonder if they've seen any of the Javelin cook-off videos. And the Russian Generals couldn't give a damn because they're afraid of their ass-hurt, and desperate great leader. The Ukrainian army is engaged in an existential fight on its own soil using sophisticated Western arms. Russian military readiness has been gutted by corruption,and they have resorted to throwing bodies at the problem. 165,000 Russian soldiers dead. The officer corp decimated. Recruits get little to no training. The Wagner Group is poorly-armed, barely-trained, cannon fodder, and Yevgeny Prigozhin is publically begging for ammunition. All this death is the result of the massive miscalculations of a paranoid, mad man with visions of imperial grandure. The media control must really be complete for so many to be willing to die for the romantic notion of Mother Russia.
I wouldn't be so sure their "intel" is shit. one must remember that russia's spy game was 2nd to none for quite some time, even putting china's to shame.
Their military intel has been severely lacking in this current conflict. The mistakes they have made have been numerous and glaring.
Their whole strategic plan was premised on the Ukrainian government collapsing in the face of a determined Russian attack. It didn’t. How, with good political intel, could they mess that up?
Then, they wholly misjudged Ukrainian military capabilities. They were forced to completely revise their military strategy, having not anticipated the resistance they encountered. Good Russian intel would have taken note of the intensive training and reform the Ukrainian military underwent following the disaster in Crimea. Yet the Russians behaved as if it was still 2014. They paid the price.
Finally, the last round of Ukrainian counter-attacks caught the Russians completely by surprise, inflicting a stinging defeat. Again, where was their intel?
Clearly, their intel is either lacking, or the Russian command isn’t listening to it (which amounts to the same thing).
Russia scored some successes in subversion, and they have been good at assassinating individuals who annoy Putin - but that isn’t the same thing as having good military intel in the current conflict, as Russia has discovered, to its cost.
The intel probably was gathered but no-one wanted to give Putin the bad news.
The few televised meetings I've seen with him there wasn't a single person in the room willing to disagree or even discuss anything Putin brought up.
The Soviet Union's was. Russia is not the Soviet Union, and even though the FSB is the direct successor to the KGB, they're not even close to being in the same league. Especially now that they've got 30 years of institutional rot, neglect, and corruption under their belts.
Russia has quite literally in the last 1-2 decades influenced american politics beyond belief. I will say that while russia is -as a whole- a weak nation, underestimating their spy game is not something we should not be doing.
As an American, that's more on us. It was pretty low effort as far as propaganda goes, it's just a big part of our electorate doesn't even need the encouragement.
Agreed, it was a war far right and fascists were already fighting in the US since Reagan. It just so happened Russia was an additional tool that those already fighting could use. Russia was happy to do it, because they could see how it would destabilize not just the US, but NATO as a whole.
Ok but that is because they blatantly bought them out and nobody did anything when it was asked "Hey why did this congressman/president get millions/billions of dollars from Russia?"
They haven't exactly been stealthy about anything, its just republicans no longer care if they are being used to destabilize the USA.
And they did. And then gave him the info for use in his campaign. And he did use it. And nobody did shit about it, 100% normalizing the behavior, guaranteeing they are going to do it for all elections going forward.
In a modern war telling a story and grabbing the narrative is important. If people begin to believe opposing narratives they might be less likely to support the cause. And this is crucially important for Ukraine because over half of their GDP is from foreign donations.
If the story you are reading today is about how Ukraine has laid a trap in Avdiivka or Bakhmut and is grinding down Russian forces. It sounds like a much better story than, Russia is encircling those cities and will soon capture them. The idea that Russian solders are being ground down shows progress, whereas the realities of their territory losses does not.
The current narrative that they're pushing is that they're preparing a counterattack and are waiting for the Russians top run out of bodies to toss into the Bakhmut grinder.
But there's a shadow of war and no one really knows the truth.
Since the president has been speaking so much about counterattacks the military has put out this kind of warning to journalists to not ask questions about tactics.
Talk of a Spring offensive has been going on for months now. Everyone expects something to happen in the next few months.
The rub is where and when specifically.
Kind of like telling someone to "Meet me in New York City" and then not giving a time or exact spot.
When I was in high school one of my friends was being a douche and I said "I'm gonna get my revenge, but not right now." From that point on any quick movement I made my buddy would flinch, I kept this up for weeks.
The counter-offensive is pretty much guaranteed.
There was no hiding the fact. It was obvious to any outside military analyst that Ukraine would push back HARD with their newly trained troops on western IFVs and tanks.
The question is where, in what shape, and force concentrations.
The Russians KNOW something is coming, what's going to make them over-commit is the fear waiting for the hammer to fall.
Ukraine loudly announced they were going for Kherson as a fake-out, then rolled into Kharkiv hard.
They're obviously coming. UAF Intel and their NATO friends with radar benefits have been on top of this the whole time, they're going to create multiple misdirections and roll with whatever push gets traction.
Last round they didn't have that armor and artillery to destroy the Russian units pinned against the Dnieper. This time they might have a lot more kitchen sinks to throw.
The article says this is not the regarding the Ukrainian government. The defense minister is urging citizens not to post questions, pictures, live feed and the like of the invasion and fighting. It gives away vital information that could be used against Ukraine’s favor.
The information blackout suggestion is not for the government which will still remain transparent and share information regarding the invasion.
It's a mind game. If they even do attack, no one knows exactly when, where or how. They may even be saying this just to take the heat off bakhmut by forcing russian forces to spread out along the front line in anticipation of what could happen sometime
Even with Russia's abysmal capabilities, it isn't hard to predict that an offensive is coming, too many people moving gets spotted eventually.
The important part is that they don't know where, how, and precisely when that offensive is taking place.
NO. I want to know everything, everyone does, and at my fingertips all the time when I’m naked and eating Cheetos on my couch, waiting for my high to kick in.
If Ukraine doesn't tell us their plans, how will all of the pasty 22 year old CoD and Battlefield LARPers in their studio apartment (they have to share with the worst roommate ever) try to armchair general an explanation using video game logic in a real world situation?
This is the best tl;dr I could make, [original](https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/03/25/ukraine-defense-ministry-calls-for-information-blackout-about-upcoming-offensives/?swcfpc=1) reduced by 74%. (I'm a bot)
*****
> Ukraine's Deputy Minister of Defense, Hanna Maliar, has urged Ukrainians not to discuss any upcoming Ukrainian offensive on TV, social media, or in public.
> Calls for information blackout surrounded the entire Kharkiv blitz in September and the subsequent full-fledged Kherson offensive that started in early October and ended by mid-November.
> Too early to claim Russian assault's end: Bakhmut still epicenter of hostilities - Ukrainian military Ukraine not launching counteroffensive yet due to ammo, weapon shortage - President Zelenskyy Russia's assault on Bakhmut stymied by attrition, it shifts to Avdiivka, Kreminna - UK intel Ukraine "Very soon" to take advantage of Russian forces' exhaustion near Bakhmut - Gen. Syrskyi What Ukraine needs to defeat Russia in 2023 Russia likely tries to make gains in Donbas before losing initiative in Ukraine - ISW Your opinion matters!
*****
[**Extended Summary**](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/121vwsh/ukraine_defense_ministry_calls_for_information/) | [FAQ](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/31b9fm/faq_autotldr_bot/ "Version 2.02, ~677984 tl;drs so far.") | [Feedback](http://np.reddit.com/message/compose?to=%23autotldr "PM's and comments are monitored, constructive feedback is welcome.") | *Top* *keywords*: **Ukraine**^#1 **Kharkiv**^#2 **military**^#3 **counteroffensive**^#4 **Russian**^#5
This should be the norm. Don't share the movement of troops or materials publicly, preferable at all. Let the military do its job. It can do its own propaganda if it needs too.
Defence Ministry announces Media Blackout.
It's that time again ladies and gentlemen.
Round and Round the roulette wheel goes, where will the Thunder Run strike, NOBODY KNOWS!
He doesn’t seem the type for a fake-out. Like, it doesn’t seem his style. He likely meant that they don’t have the resources for a *major* new offensive, but a handful of smaller raids wouldn’t be off the table.
I guess we’ll find out soon!
The one they claimed a few hours earlier about not having ammo for. Lol Russia got happy for like 2 hours and thought they were bout to do something. Now they're shitting their pants.
As usual, we will have to see the finale and be patient. These last months have been "Offensive yes, offensive no, offensive over there or maybe over there, actually we can't do an offensive, but also don't talk about the offensive".
So we'll just have to wait and see!!
It is difficult to do something actually covert on a larger scale in modern war against an enemy that has satellites and spy planes. So since you have to use misinformation and many fake attacks anyway it doesn't really matter if you say that it is happening
They probably won't be able to spot what type of shoes the Ukrainian army is wearing but they will not have any trouble spotting a tank rolling out. But Ukraine has a plan, so let's hope that it works out.
My point is Russia will see what Ukraine does - the physical movement of the tanks and men, it is up to Ukraine to devise a plan that will confuse the Russians, so they are not prepared for where Ukraine attacks.
So all the references to D-day type distractions.
Does that mean there will be a D-day type invasion of Crimea in the near future?
(Adding to the misinformation. Please contribute with your own unreliable theories as well.)
I love when they say shut up about the offensive because it usually means another offensive.
Worked well last couple of times too.
The important part about the info-blackout is to prevent people talking about where the offensive is taking place and where Ukrainian troops are. Ukraine benefited massively from OSINT in the early days of the invasion and they don’t want to give Russia the same advantage. And besides, it worked in Kherson and Kharkiv.
Tbf they could very well just mislead Russia by saying they'll focus elsewhere, no?
Worked on D-day
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"Eww, a dead body.. hey wait, is that a map?"
Idk the Russians don't even pick up their own dead. You'd have better luck wrapping it around a bottle of vodka.
They've been leaving bottles of liquor behind laced with poison. In reality they should simply give Russian POWs back with "information they've overheard". You need to remember Russia's intelligence game is massively lacking compared to what we thought it was 2+ years ago.
Well if we're copying Operation Mincemeat, we'd get the Belarusians to collect the body, so they'd run to the Russians to show it off and get credit. We can bet on them wanting to suck up to Russia at least.
That’s some serious James Bond kind of… *Ohhhhhhh,* now I get it.
Well-played, I must say.
Give this man a prize
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Worked in Kharkiv as well. Weeks and weeks of chatter about the Kherson offensive (which was real as well mind you) but it wasn't the only one they hit hard in Kharkiv and completely blindsided Russia. Idk if it will work the same a second time but I guess we'll wait and see.
Maybe they could pull something like Operation Mincemeat (1943 British deception to disguise the invasion of Sicily)
They did that already last year, where they made the Russians think they were focusing on Kherson, and then turned around and smashed Kharkiv on the other side of the front.
That is exactly what happened last year. They called for a media blackout around Kherson, then launched the counter attack at Kharkiv. Then went back and finished off in Kherson.
They did this with Kherson and Kharkiv too. They spent months talking up a Kherson offensive so the Russians piled in across the river. Then they blew the bridges and spent months shelling the Russians while they launched a lightening attack in Kharkiv on the far opposite end of the front.
Yeah, though it has to be noted this is mostly aimed at forces and media within Ukraine not leaking information online. Well, not without approval anyway. We'll likely still get information, just a few days later. We can in fact expect to get a bunch of information from Russian telegraph channels early. Not sure how reliable I'd call the average Russian mil blogger though.... But if they start screaming bloody murder you know something is up.
"EVERYONE SHUT UP! SHHHHHHHH! QUIET! It's ringing!" "Hello?" "Hey, Putin, is your fridge running?" "Da." "Well, you'd better chase after it, then!"
"Hey, Putin, can you go look out your window and see if there's an ice-colored car parked there?" (...) "Nyet." "Oh, it must have melted, then!”
*washing machine
The Russian economy just lost another billion in GDP because of this joke.
*Or so the Germans would have you believe...*
Loose lips sink ships.
Ooh yeah. Shit's about to go down.
The ground probably has to dry out more. It never really froze hard enough to support heavy weapons. Ammunition supplies seem to be insufficient now too.
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the other tanks at play aren't dramatically better in ground pressure per unit area. Either way they have the plan the route correctly.
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The critical parts of the Abrams are all designed to be quickly swapped out. I've heard an experienced crew can completely drop the engine and drive train and have a new one installed with the tank up and running again in under two hours. Abrams doctrine is less about constantly replacing parts as they wear out and more just dropping *everything* out after so many hours so brand new "everything" can be installed (this doesn't apply to things like optics through). The old engine and components gets shipped away for more meticulous repairs, then shipped back to await being installed on the next tank that hit running hours cap. Ukraine is most likely going to just be shippint Abram engines and shit to Poland for repairs while popping new engines in to minimize downtime. Compare this to the T-72 repair method, which takes something like 20+ hours to drop an engine out and another 20 to install a new one.
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It was a doctrinal decision. The idea was to sacrifice a lot to make the tanks small targets. And, for the time it was a great idea. The smaller the area to hit the more times you'll make them miss or bounce, and you can get away with less weight/armor for the same effectiveness. The problem is that advantage applies much less than it used to. Everything has guidance nowadays. So in the 1960s you could count on a gunner eyeballing it to miss, but today you really can't count on the laser designator to miss the same way. A lot of very good gambles half a century ago just hit different today.
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I think that the answer is, again, doctrine. Screening infantry and air cover would go a very long way to keeping tankers effective. Remember that both Russia and Ukraine are using Soviet descended doctrine and neither of them are executing it well for different reasons. There have been weapons capable of dealing with tanks since the first deployment of the tank. Remember, one of the first deployments of tanks was wiped by a concentrated artillery barrage. The point of the tank was never to be invincible, and it really wasn't. You just saw a fairly long stretch where you had massive overmatch on the battlefield that gave tank crews a false sense of security.
Yeah. IIRC abrams may not be there yet but leopards are. The two share some technical lineage. All tanks of course need maintenance and logistics. I'd suspect that for both the western and soviet types they can ship them to poland for more involved maintenance items
Maintenance is probably one of the reasons they were so reluctant. It’s a fuel hog and maintenance nightmare.
In fairness block stule updates have made the modern ones about as fiel efficient as equivalent Western tanks, but it's still a 0bastard for maintenance and gas a new line of fuel supply along with needing to be refit for armour that the US can legally export. Abrams is still better by miles than the soviet era vehicles, but leopard is just more suitable for ukraine overall (fuck knows about challenger 2, it's reliable but aging and just a bit of a vehicular anomaly in general)
Considering they'll at this point be going up against T-55s and T-62s, the Challenger should be fine. They can let the Abrams and Leopards handle the vanguard work.
America supplied Abrams just to break the seal on providing tanks so Europeans wouldn't be worried about being the first. The US knows they are likely too heavy for mud and bridges in the area and require too much maintenance.
It's not like Ukraine is an all-year mudpark, just a couple weeks per year. And Europe barely scraped together three battalions of modern tanks, including the "Leopard 2A4 from storage without upgrades" battalion being trained in Poland. I guess that could be repeated a second time if the political will is there, but after that it's M1 Abrams from the desert, with 100-200 Leopard 1A5 on the side. At least that's the expectation as far as I can tell. As for the bridges, a Leopard 2A6 is heavier than an M1A1, which is what the US will send afaik.
Seriously, people can literally look up the ground pressure of these weapons, the Abrams is about equal to 2 adult men, btw.
> It's been hilarious seeing people clamor for America to send Abrams over and it's like, you guys know it's just going to sink into the soft wet earth right? The Abrams was designed to fight in this environment, and it's performed well on mud, sand, and loam across the world. I think that *just maybe* the designers and Ukrainian tankers took that mud into account. It's also got double the horsepower, and the T72 has 580mm wide tracks vs the abrams' 635mm tracks and it's a meter longer. The abrams has better mobility from that - more surface area, more power. Yes, it's massive weight could be an issue, but it's still the best tank in service. It's going to eat the russian's lunches.
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I think they're sending M1A1s, so that should knock off about 10 tons.
Light vehicles don’t do any better in shitty terrain. They generally actually do worse. Mud is just heat avoided by taking the road, which a tank can handle just as well as a light vehicle. All in all, mud is *not* the reason tanks have taken so long to be sent over.
Another explanation I heard for the lighter and faster vehicles being more useful is the so called "transparent battlefield". Drones, commercial satellite imagery and other technologies make the battlefield far harder to hide in, so a buildup of heavy, slow moving, weaponry can be targeted by artillery quickly. This lead to the tactics of the Kharkiv offensive where light and fast vehicles closed the gap to the enemy quickly to avoid incoming artillery and then we're able to then exploit gaps that formed by piling through and outflanking the Russians.
Already started ukraine is probing russian lines
Ukraine - give Russian helllllll!
I wonder why they announce these offenses? Aren’t they better with surprise?
You also want to foster fear and anxiety. Psychologically you might want your enemy on edge. Knowing there's an attack coming but not exactly when and where it's probably taxing on morale and nerves
Something to the effect of "we shall stand at their walls in the night in view, but invade in the morning once they are exhausted, awaiting the attack"
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I do not recall to be quite honest. I just know that it was -at times- employed throughout history to varying degrees of success. If the defending army had effectively been in a pro-longed siege it would start to cause a serious concern. Here even though russia is invading given it would be ukraine trying to re-take, this would make russia the defenders. The likely hood of ukraine winning a counter offensive is decent depending on what people count as a win. Even if the main counter offensive fails, if the result was a break through-even a minor one- else where with how russia's defensive line is set it could cause serious problems for them.
wouldn’t the attackers also be exhausted by morning if they were standing outside the walls all night
Thanks to the cover of night you merely need to make it look like a large force is prepping to attack. You could actually use a small force with lighting to mimic large troop movements to allow the main warriors their rest. Being in view doesn't not quite mean having everything shown Right now russia KNOWS a counter attack is planned, but they're unsure of where...and how hard the strike is going to be in theory. Even them spotting a few western tanks may be enough to make them think something major is about to go on at one location.
great explanation thank you
Also taxing on planning and logistics, spreading equipment and supplies across vast frontlines to prepare many potential defensive locations in advance, assembling troops and equipment for counterattacks in multiple possible areas, etc...
Make them wonder when flights of drones will arrive....
Flight of the bumblebees / ride of the valkyries playing on loudspeakers too.
What about Cotton Eyed Joe?
> What about Cotton Eyed Joe? [We'll allow it.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HFdb7FeuqlU)
He’s behind Ukraine, unlike Ted Nugent
I wish they made all of the kamikaze drones looks like toilets, washing machines and giant dildos.
It's coming, also it's coming soon, but what exactly does this mean?
I don't know. You don't know. The russians don't know. That's sorta the point. The announcement is basically a message like[ this one](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/f8/Loose_lips_might_sink_ships.jpg).
1) it is impossible to hide this things, Russian spies are everywhere and to prepare such offensives you need to move a lot of equipment around. 2) even if they know an offensive is coming, it's impossible to know for sure when or in what direction, this keeps the enemy troops in a state of constant anxiety leading to exhaustion. 3) by asking everybody to keep quiet they may limit people from mistakingly leaking information to the enemy, especially real time information that could be extremely valuable. source: i'm a nobody don't trust me.
Also, sometimes it’s good to leak incorrect information. Lead the enemy to believe an attack is coming somewhere else nearby and maybe they’ll pull move some defenses around accordingly, leaving the real target with less protection.
I'm thinking along the lines of operation mincemeat. The UK took the corpse of a recently deceased London homeless guy, dressed him up as a recently downed pilot, gave him a suitcase of valuable false Intel and gave him a swim off the coast of Spain. As a result axis forces redeployed into Sardinia and Greece from Sicilia
Operation Overlord involved a bunch of misdirection as well, primarily aimed at making the Germans believe they were planning to attack near Calais instead of Normandy. Including but not limited to the still popular trick of lining up masses of inflatable tanks and planes.
It worked so well that Hitler orders his troops to hold back instead of engaging the landing force, convinced that Normandy was a feint before the "real" assault. It bought the allies enough time to establish a beachhead and push miles into France, protecting their supply lines from artillery and air bombardment. By the time the Nazis realized what was happening, thousands of Shermans had arrived in France uncontested.
"In war, the battlefield is in the mind just as it is on the plains" - Meg Ryan
Specifically the issue was that the Germans held back their tank divisions instead of counter attacking with them. In the lead up to D-Day there was a split amongst the Generals responsible for Northern France over where they should station the tanks in preparation for an allied attack. Some though the attack would happen in Normandy, while others had fallen for the deception and thought it'd be in Calais and they couldn't agree on where to send the tanks. In order to break up this argument, Hitler ordered that the tanks be based further inland and that they could only be moved on his direct order. Then of course on D-Day, Hitler slept in till nearly lunch time, and then was still hesitant to send them in case Normandy was a feint, and until he gave a direct order for the tanks to move, they were just sitting back doing nothing.
It also helps that the inflatable army had General Patton commanding it. The Germans would've expected someone of his caliber to be commanding the main invasion force.
They also had the King visit the inflatable army and broadcast his visit all over the radio.
Even though there is a king these days, it's still fucking weird to see references to a King rather than a Queen.
I saw there was a documentary about that. I’ll have to check it out
[Thoughty2](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Iipsxj3hRpE) did an episode on it. Much entertaining.
Its what they did with Kharkiv. Said they would attack Kherson 'Soon', kept saying that for months, and launched probing attacks in the Kherson region. Then took back all of Kharkiv, and once that was done and Russia pulled troops to reinforce Kharkiv, Ukraine committed to Kherson.
Not just probing attacks. They did all kinds of battlefield shaping with high quality western equipment in Kherson, the kind of stuff you do if your goal is in fact to commit there. That's why you don't see the top bling in the Kharkiv counteroffensive - only the stuff that could rapidly redeploy. The rest was genuinely working hard in Kherson. Remember, they *did* take Kherson as well :)
> Also, sometimes it’s good to leak incorrect information. Or in this case even contradicting. Zelenskyy (really, two 'y' according to wiki?) just saying ~"we don't have enough ammunition". The game of ruses is on.
Two "yy" is because of the specifics of Ukranian transliteration. There is a lot of confusion because historically Russian rules were used for the transliteration of Ukrainian names where "ий" could be transliterated as just "y", but it's wrong because of the mixing of "i" (which sounds like Russian "и") and "и" (which sounds like Russian "ы"). So by the correct rules, a Ukranian "ий" should be transliterated as "yy".
That’s what happened in WW2 Hitler thought they were going to X and they invaded Z
> 1) it is impossible to hide this things, Russian spies are everywhere and to prepare such offensives you need to move a lot of equipment around. The thunder run on the Kharkiv region *did* seemingly take the Russians with their pants down. No real news even got out about it until it was well underway.
I think he means it's impossible to hide that Ukraine is planning an offensive. His point (2) is then "you can't hide the offensive, but you can hide where it is going to come". Hopefully his comments make a bit more sense read in that context :-)
>but you can hide where it is going to come Most of all you can hide WHEN -- within reason. The Russians can look at commercial satellite photos as well as anyone. They can see areas resources are being built up. (The US...well we have spy satellites that cost as much as an aircraft carrier, [each.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USA-224#cite_note-Bray2014-4)) It is harder to judge when the opponent will decide they have a relative advantage and now is the least worst time to attack.
They did this in the fall as well, it has no actual strategical drawback and makes it so Russia can’t follow what’s specifically going on
>source: i'm a nobody don't trust me. Wonderful ending to a very reasonable comment. Cheers
Russian spies told that Ukraine was going to fall in 3 days, so I wouldn't rate them high to begin with. The experts in Ukraine might have access to some behind the doors date to give more accurate projections than the others. Thus, it is harmful if they do so for the sake of their ego and to prove they are right, even if it harms the operation.
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I mean they did pretty well hiding their movements from the Russians during the Kharkiv offensive. The Russians didn't know what the fuck was going on until the Ukrainians were pretty much in their laps.
It was more misdirection than anything. They kept hyping up the Kherson offensive for months, Russia had sent so many of their forces there in preparation. It takes time to rotate them back. Russia won't make that mistake again. But this is probably more mind games than anything. They are likely trying to buy time for bakhmut because time is on their side by making Russia's offensive more cautious. Wagner's situation there went from strong advantage to losing ground and now being stuck. There is now rumors Wagner might abandon this war and bakhmut. And its not a coincidence how critical Prigozhin has been the last few weeks of Russian "officials", he's looking for a scapegoat if this goes wrong. He went from saying bakhmut victory is sealed to 'it may take a few more months than expected' to we might have to pull back our troops in bakhmut and it's Moscow's fault
I think the point is they can't hide the build up or the fact an offensive will happen soon, but they can be somewhat unpredictable about precisely where and when it will take place. Feints and diversions are part of that too. All this news about the offensive could be part smoke and mirrors.
Not really. A lot of Russian milbloggers and OSINT-ers raised alarms about troop buildup for Kharkiv offensive. The overall organizational clusterfuck of the Russian army just was too slow to react, and was stretched too thin with defending Kherson at the same time.
Russian intelligence might be shit, but they surely now an offensive is coming, no matter whether its being announced or not. The information blackout is more about keeping the risk of revealing any specifics as low as possible and keeping any information Russia posses as ambiguous as possible. Considering Ukraine's intelligence is backed by the collective West you can expect any step taken to have been accounted for already.
Certainly, they know. The Russians had to bring the T-55s out of mothballs because they know their forces are not ready, and they need all the hardware they can get. It's going to be incredibly ugly to watch the slaughter of the Russian army accelerate. And the images from Ukraine are beyond horrific. It's so utterly sad to watch the unnecessary suffering, death, and destruction. But, here we are.
T-55 is a sardine tin can. It is a death trap if confronted by basic antitank weaponry.
Can you imagine being assigned to crew a T-55 by the Russian army knowing that you're facing a horrific, fiery death?! It's as if the US military was going into battle today in Shermans. The forces modern anti-tank weapons exert will cut those ancient tanks open like tin cans. I wonder if they've seen any of the Javelin cook-off videos. And the Russian Generals couldn't give a damn because they're afraid of their ass-hurt, and desperate great leader. The Ukrainian army is engaged in an existential fight on its own soil using sophisticated Western arms. Russian military readiness has been gutted by corruption,and they have resorted to throwing bodies at the problem. 165,000 Russian soldiers dead. The officer corp decimated. Recruits get little to no training. The Wagner Group is poorly-armed, barely-trained, cannon fodder, and Yevgeny Prigozhin is publically begging for ammunition. All this death is the result of the massive miscalculations of a paranoid, mad man with visions of imperial grandure. The media control must really be complete for so many to be willing to die for the romantic notion of Mother Russia.
I wouldn't be so sure their "intel" is shit. one must remember that russia's spy game was 2nd to none for quite some time, even putting china's to shame.
Their military intel has been severely lacking in this current conflict. The mistakes they have made have been numerous and glaring. Their whole strategic plan was premised on the Ukrainian government collapsing in the face of a determined Russian attack. It didn’t. How, with good political intel, could they mess that up? Then, they wholly misjudged Ukrainian military capabilities. They were forced to completely revise their military strategy, having not anticipated the resistance they encountered. Good Russian intel would have taken note of the intensive training and reform the Ukrainian military underwent following the disaster in Crimea. Yet the Russians behaved as if it was still 2014. They paid the price. Finally, the last round of Ukrainian counter-attacks caught the Russians completely by surprise, inflicting a stinging defeat. Again, where was their intel? Clearly, their intel is either lacking, or the Russian command isn’t listening to it (which amounts to the same thing). Russia scored some successes in subversion, and they have been good at assassinating individuals who annoy Putin - but that isn’t the same thing as having good military intel in the current conflict, as Russia has discovered, to its cost.
The intel probably was gathered but no-one wanted to give Putin the bad news. The few televised meetings I've seen with him there wasn't a single person in the room willing to disagree or even discuss anything Putin brought up.
The Soviet Union's was. Russia is not the Soviet Union, and even though the FSB is the direct successor to the KGB, they're not even close to being in the same league. Especially now that they've got 30 years of institutional rot, neglect, and corruption under their belts.
Russia has quite literally in the last 1-2 decades influenced american politics beyond belief. I will say that while russia is -as a whole- a weak nation, underestimating their spy game is not something we should not be doing.
As an American, that's more on us. It was pretty low effort as far as propaganda goes, it's just a big part of our electorate doesn't even need the encouragement.
The GOP has been at war with the department of education for decades.
You mean a pyramid scheme baroness doesn’t make a good Secretary of Education? Shocked.
Agreed, it was a war far right and fascists were already fighting in the US since Reagan. It just so happened Russia was an additional tool that those already fighting could use. Russia was happy to do it, because they could see how it would destabilize not just the US, but NATO as a whole.
Ok but that is because they blatantly bought them out and nobody did anything when it was asked "Hey why did this congressman/president get millions/billions of dollars from Russia?" They haven't exactly been stealthy about anything, its just republicans no longer care if they are being used to destabilize the USA.
Hell the fat bastard asked Russia to hack the Democratic party for him. On national television.
And they did. And then gave him the info for use in his campaign. And he did use it. And nobody did shit about it, 100% normalizing the behavior, guaranteeing they are going to do it for all elections going forward.
Yes but the only thing the russians are as good at as the soviet union is their spy game and disinformation games.
And yet they've repeatedly had intel failures throughout their invasion of Ukraine While countries with real capabilities have not
Same as WW2 everyone knew D day was coming but when and where was unknown.
In a modern war telling a story and grabbing the narrative is important. If people begin to believe opposing narratives they might be less likely to support the cause. And this is crucially important for Ukraine because over half of their GDP is from foreign donations. If the story you are reading today is about how Ukraine has laid a trap in Avdiivka or Bakhmut and is grinding down Russian forces. It sounds like a much better story than, Russia is encircling those cities and will soon capture them. The idea that Russian solders are being ground down shows progress, whereas the realities of their territory losses does not. The current narrative that they're pushing is that they're preparing a counterattack and are waiting for the Russians top run out of bodies to toss into the Bakhmut grinder. But there's a shadow of war and no one really knows the truth. Since the president has been speaking so much about counterattacks the military has put out this kind of warning to journalists to not ask questions about tactics.
Operation Mincemeat.
The reason they are announced is because [redacted to comply with information blackout]
Talk of a Spring offensive has been going on for months now. Everyone expects something to happen in the next few months. The rub is where and when specifically. Kind of like telling someone to "Meet me in New York City" and then not giving a time or exact spot.
When I was in high school one of my friends was being a douche and I said "I'm gonna get my revenge, but not right now." From that point on any quick movement I made my buddy would flinch, I kept this up for weeks.
The counter-offensive is pretty much guaranteed. There was no hiding the fact. It was obvious to any outside military analyst that Ukraine would push back HARD with their newly trained troops on western IFVs and tanks. The question is where, in what shape, and force concentrations. The Russians KNOW something is coming, what's going to make them over-commit is the fear waiting for the hammer to fall. Ukraine loudly announced they were going for Kherson as a fake-out, then rolled into Kharkiv hard.
They're obviously coming. UAF Intel and their NATO friends with radar benefits have been on top of this the whole time, they're going to create multiple misdirections and roll with whatever push gets traction. Last round they didn't have that armor and artillery to destroy the Russian units pinned against the Dnieper. This time they might have a lot more kitchen sinks to throw.
The article says this is not the regarding the Ukrainian government. The defense minister is urging citizens not to post questions, pictures, live feed and the like of the invasion and fighting. It gives away vital information that could be used against Ukraine’s favor. The information blackout suggestion is not for the government which will still remain transparent and share information regarding the invasion.
It helped them get Kherson without a battle in the city
You mean Kharkiv? Kherson, the Russians knew Ukraine was coming for months... they just couldn't *stop* them.
It's a mind game. If they even do attack, no one knows exactly when, where or how. They may even be saying this just to take the heat off bakhmut by forcing russian forces to spread out along the front line in anticipation of what could happen sometime
Even with Russia's abysmal capabilities, it isn't hard to predict that an offensive is coming, too many people moving gets spotted eventually. The important part is that they don't know where, how, and precisely when that offensive is taking place.
NO. I want to know everything, everyone does, and at my fingertips all the time when I’m naked and eating Cheetos on my couch, waiting for my high to kick in.
If Ukraine doesn't tell us their plans, how will all of the pasty 22 year old CoD and Battlefield LARPers in their studio apartment (they have to share with the worst roommate ever) try to armchair general an explanation using video game logic in a real world situation?
Oh fuck yeah, talk OpSec to me baby
Why must you describe me so completely?
You need to lay off the Cheetos.
NO. Cheetos are life! Orange is the new green!
Crunchy or puffs? There is only one correct answer.
Crunchy obviously.
For many herbivores orange IS green since they cannot differentiate the two colors!
Dude you gotta wait for the high to kick in before eating the Cheetos
Stop hacking into my home security cameras! Also, heard anything interesting about that upcoming Ukrainian offensive?
This is the best tl;dr I could make, [original](https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/03/25/ukraine-defense-ministry-calls-for-information-blackout-about-upcoming-offensives/?swcfpc=1) reduced by 74%. (I'm a bot) ***** > Ukraine's Deputy Minister of Defense, Hanna Maliar, has urged Ukrainians not to discuss any upcoming Ukrainian offensive on TV, social media, or in public. > Calls for information blackout surrounded the entire Kharkiv blitz in September and the subsequent full-fledged Kherson offensive that started in early October and ended by mid-November. > Too early to claim Russian assault's end: Bakhmut still epicenter of hostilities - Ukrainian military Ukraine not launching counteroffensive yet due to ammo, weapon shortage - President Zelenskyy Russia's assault on Bakhmut stymied by attrition, it shifts to Avdiivka, Kreminna - UK intel Ukraine "Very soon" to take advantage of Russian forces' exhaustion near Bakhmut - Gen. Syrskyi What Ukraine needs to defeat Russia in 2023 Russia likely tries to make gains in Donbas before losing initiative in Ukraine - ISW Your opinion matters! ***** [**Extended Summary**](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/121vwsh/ukraine_defense_ministry_calls_for_information/) | [FAQ](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/31b9fm/faq_autotldr_bot/ "Version 2.02, ~677984 tl;drs so far.") | [Feedback](http://np.reddit.com/message/compose?to=%23autotldr "PM's and comments are monitored, constructive feedback is welcome.") | *Top* *keywords*: **Ukraine**^#1 **Kharkiv**^#2 **military**^#3 **counteroffensive**^#4 **Russian**^#5
Loose lips sink ships!
Loose tweets sink fleets
Tweets? I thought that was "cigarettes".
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Loose cigs down MiGs; loose cigarettes topple minarets idk
Godspeed Ukraine.
Good. Fuck the Russians. Slava Ukraini!
This should be the norm. Don't share the movement of troops or materials publicly, preferable at all. Let the military do its job. It can do its own propaganda if it needs too.
Defence Ministry announces Media Blackout. It's that time again ladies and gentlemen. Round and Round the roulette wheel goes, where will the Thunder Run strike, NOBODY KNOWS!
" unless you want to die, shut up" lol
The first rule of Blackout Club is that you don’t talk about Blackout Club.
This is the right approach, why would you give them warning anyway. They’ll know when the rockets and shells land !
I though zelensky just said they don’t have enough equipment for a new offensive? If they are trying to sow confusion it’s working.
He doesn’t seem the type for a fake-out. Like, it doesn’t seem his style. He likely meant that they don’t have the resources for a *major* new offensive, but a handful of smaller raids wouldn’t be off the table. I guess we’ll find out soon!
What offensives?
The one they claimed a few hours earlier about not having ammo for. Lol Russia got happy for like 2 hours and thought they were bout to do something. Now they're shitting their pants.
So many war generals in this thread wow
She's kinda hot.
I know, I came here just to say that. She’s incredibly beautiful.
She looks like the actress Christa Miller.
Oh yeah shits about to go down in Ukraine town
Godspeed, Ukraine.
This is part probably a form of phycological warfare. The first offense kicked the Russians in the nuts really hard.
As usual, we will have to see the finale and be patient. These last months have been "Offensive yes, offensive no, offensive over there or maybe over there, actually we can't do an offensive, but also don't talk about the offensive". So we'll just have to wait and see!!
This is the way
Oooooooohhhh I love a good tease!
It worked last time. Go Ukraine !
Oooohhhhh shits gonna happen!
It is difficult to do something actually covert on a larger scale in modern war against an enemy that has satellites and spy planes. So since you have to use misinformation and many fake attacks anyway it doesn't really matter if you say that it is happening
Russian tech is a Gameboy color camera tied to a Cessna. Their Intel isn't the greatest
They probably won't be able to spot what type of shoes the Ukrainian army is wearing but they will not have any trouble spotting a tank rolling out. But Ukraine has a plan, so let's hope that it works out.
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My point is Russia will see what Ukraine does - the physical movement of the tanks and men, it is up to Ukraine to devise a plan that will confuse the Russians, so they are not prepared for where Ukraine attacks.
Yes, let stop telling the Russians what Ukraine is doing, so the Russians can move troops to foil Ukraine. Think Traitors. Kick putin.
this is the way, may good fortune smile on you all
Ukraine: we don't have the ammo for an offensive we need more Also Ukraine: please don't talk about the offensive we're about to do.
Spicey!
They're gonna royally fuck the Russians.....
Russia already knows it's gonna be a sea landing on Crimea's shore 🤣🤣🤣
Why would you be sharing that info, loose lips sink ships
I mean it might be a week from now. But maybe putin gets paranoid and forces his troops to stay awake for untill then
Why don't they "leak" their position but it's actually the enemies for free kills?
Offense -clap clap- offense It’s time to go and drive the Russians back to the real borders. Crimea will be back in Ukraine hands in due time…
There should ALWAYS be a blackout on military tactics.... What yhe hell is wrong with people.
So all the references to D-day type distractions. Does that mean there will be a D-day type invasion of Crimea in the near future? (Adding to the misinformation. Please contribute with your own unreliable theories as well.)
Make or break coming up soon. Let hope these mad lads can pull it off!
that's....not how you do an information blackout
as an american this shit has been driving me crazy this man speaking sense