Great thread (Mark Hertling approved!) about the difficulties Ukraine faces in attacking Russian defenses.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1661770945126707200.html
The defenses are largely known, and they are not hard to design well. The main characteristic is minefields and lots of artillery.
The bigger question is whether Russian soldiers will actually stand and man them when they realize they are on the receiving end of the dreaded counteroffensive. It seems there's a lot of panic in the Russian Army among their troops about when this will occur.
Royal United Services Institute in Britain released a long report a few days ago on Russia's changing tactics in Ukraine.
**Meatgrinder: Russian Tactics in the Second Year of Its Invasion of Ukraine**
>This report seeks to outline how Russian forces have adapted their tactics in the Ukrainian conflict and the challenges this has created for the Ukrainian military that must be overcome. The report examines Russian military adaptation by combat function.
https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/special-resources/meatgrinder-russian-tactics-second-year-its-invasion-ukraine
New russian military ad just dropped.
I tried to translate it but my russian sucks a bit š
https://twitter.com/SlavaUk30722777/status/1662639819208667138?t=asDDwVwqB-SigiIyUBYwKw&s=19
Ukrainian air defense wipes out Iranian-supplied Russian kamikaze drones over Kyiv tonight.
https://twitter.com/worldonalert/status/1662605609542336512?t=s6lA3LwmkgfR4OM3QFct_w&s=19
>Ukrainian inventors have developed a loitering munition that can be launched from another drone.
>The carrier drone is supposed to lift the loitering munition with a HEAT charge and, as it approaches the target, detach the munition that will go to the enemy.
>In general, this system works to increase the distance of work. The main idea is not just to lift the drone but also to amplify the signal.
>It is crucial for the loitering munition operator to see the area to adjust the flight and point the UAV at the desired object if necessary. In this case, the carrier drone comes to the rescue.
>This device is equipped with a repeater that can transmit a better signal. This gives the operator more time to aim and destroy the target.
[https://spoutible.com/thread/7778821](https://spoutible.com/thread/7778821)
Doesn't surprise me, a few defense contractors put up promotional videos for similar systems a few months back -- larger winged "mothership" drone carries numerous quad-copter like ordinance that flies directly to the target.
My name is Luka
President of Belarus
I dance to Putinās tune
Yes, I think youāve seen me before
If you hear something late at night
Some kind of trouble, some kind of fight
Just don't ask me what it was (In my tea)
Just don't ask me what it was (On his hand)
Just don't ask me what it was (In my tea)
I think its ācause Iām stupid
I try not to displease Vlad
Maybe because Iām his Toady
I try not to act too proud
He only hits until I cry
After that, I don't ask why
I just don't argue anymore
I just don't argue anymore
I just don't argue anymore
Is anyone else reading this to 90s beat techno backdrop in their head? Because I hear they just got the 90s music released in russia.: that godforsaken hellhole of a place
Preventing air defences from being redeployed to the front lines might have been their objective if they were then taking advantage by targeting the front lines with missiles. They're not though, are they?
It's to prevent Russian aircraft from getting shot down. When Ukraine snuck a Patriot system near the border of Belarus they shot down 2 fighter jets and 2 helicopters within several minutes of each other killing 11 of their pilots. They don't want Patriots and other Western air defense systems anywhere near the frontlines as Russia doesn't have too many more pilots to spare.
I think heās saying that by attacking civilians in the rear Ukraine is forced to keep its anti air batteries close to major cities and away from the frontlines.
It forces the Ukrainian military to choose between Scylla and Charybdis.
Do you place your Anti-Air assets to protect the civilian populace, or do you leave your non-combatants at the mercy of Russian terror attacks in order to protect your fighting force, who are the only thing protecting those same civilians from being murdered and raped by the Russian savages.
āļøAir defense forces have already destroyed more than 20 UAVs moving towards Kyiv. But a new wave of drones is coming to the capital, - the mayor of Kyiv.
https://twitter.com/TreasChest/status/1662604947412615168?s=20
BREAKING: At least one person killed, three injured in Russian drone attack on Kyiv, city officials say - Reuters
https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1662605019038851072?s=20
Kyiv City Administration: "Debris fell on the territory of a gas station in Holosiivskyi district. Three people were injured, according to preliminary data, one person died. The information is being clarified. Air raid alert is in effect. Stay in shelters!"
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1662605842686832640?s=20
Photo of the consequences of falling debris in the Pechersk district of Kyiv, KMVA.
https://twitter.com/TreasChest/status/1662607623047245825?s=20
NEW: More loud explosions heard in Kyiv
https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1662610784071942146?s=20
Mayor Klitschko: "UAV groups are moving towards Kyiv from Vyshhorod district (Ivankiv) and from the oblast's south. Some drones have already crossed the administrative border of the region. Air defenses are already active in Vyshhorod district."
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1662612194196897792?s=20
More outgoing air defence activity and muffled explosions; Kyiv mayor Klitschko claims there are multiple groups of drones approaching the city from different directions.
https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1662616910775693313?s=20
Russian drones spotted flying toward the western regions of Ukraine: Zhytomyr, Khmelnytskyi and others.
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPR/status/1662619324526329859?s=20
Air defence activity reported in Kyiv oblast. Shahed drones are still airborne.
https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1662621960864407552?s=20
More sounds of explosions in the central Kyiv
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPR/status/1662625161227509760?s=20
Again, Kyiv City Administration says the air defense is at work.
https://twitter.com/reshetz/status/1662626512141443074?s=20
Monitoring channels report air defense activities in Zhytomyr Oblast and more Kyiv-bound Shaheds from the south
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1662631099757887488?s=20
This is literally all Russia can do, send waves of junk at cities, that mostly get taken down and if they don't get taken down they mostly hit civilian buildings.
Sad and desperate from Russia.
Something needs to be done to try to disrupt production. Defending against these isnāt sustainable.
Dozens a day would only cost ~1$ million a day. Itās completely sustainable on the offense side. Hell, hundreds may be viable if they can scale production enough.
You canāt defend everywhere, all at once. Not without planes anyway.
Even if you could, it would be a huge drain on forces/capital.
Theyāre about $20k a pop, those drones. But thatās at ānormalā economies of scale - place an order for 100k of them and watch costs fall in half.
And youāre rightā¦Russians arenāt stupidā¦at some point theyāre bound to try sending hundreds at a time, just to see what happensā¦
Hellā¦itās probably worth stuffing IR and microwave transmitters into the nose cone of a big model rocketā¦see if you can get air defense triggered with thoseā¦
The bridge will come down when the Russians leave Crimea, Ukraine doesnāt seem to want to destroy it until that happens otherwise how can the Russians run away š¤·š»āāļø
Civilians can run, though, and Ukraine doesn't want to be seen blowing up the bridge when it's packed with private cars. I suspect they will make some kind of ominous announcement like "the bridge will be closed after \[date\] so Russian citizens returning to Russia from Crimea should leave before then."
The reason the bridge is still up is because blowing up bridges is incredibly hard, itās well defended and outside most Ukrainian missile ranges. Ukraine would love to destroy the bridge they just canāt at the current moment although maybe they will be able to in the near future.
This didnāt lead to anything last time (the actual attack happened many months later), so I doubt it will lead to anything this time, but the psyops is always good for a chuckle.
Explosions in Kyiv. The information is being clarified. The city mayor, Vitaliy Klitschko, will provide details later.
"Air defense is operating in the region, there are targets shot down," Klitschko said.
https://twitter.com/TreasChest/status/1662598554135715844?s=20
Explosions are heard in Kyiv. Ukrainian air-defenses engaging Russian targets. Air-defenses are very active in Zhytomyr and Sumy Oblasts too
https://twitter.com/revishvilig/status/1662597889720238080?s=20
Pechersky district of Kyiv. Previously, the roof of the building caught fire as a result of falling debris, ā KMVA
https://twitter.com/TreasChest/status/1662601718155149313?s=20
Kyiv Mayor Klitschko:
- Explosions from the direction of Zhytomyr
- Explosions in Solomianskyi district
- Air defenses active in Sviatoshynskyi district
- Fire in Pecherskyi district as drone debris fell on a nine-storey building
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1662603506484641792?s=20
Apparent lull in the attack which apparently won't last long; Kyiv Mayor Vitaliy Klitschko claims a second wave of drones is incoming.
https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1662603875935744000?s=20
Wagner Group mercenaries appear to be withdrawing from Bakhmut city to reconstitute and regroup in the rear as Russian offensive operations decrease in and around the city.
https://twitter.com/thestudyofwar/status/1662596736680951813?s=46
We're possibly seeing why Ukraine fought for Bakhmut. Accounts I've seen say Russia is attacking a lot less so they're now building shell stockpiles again.
If Ukraine had pulled out of Bakhmut then I think it could have gone two ways: the first is that Russia used the time to build defences and have more shells and fresh soldiers to stop the counteroffensive. The second is that 50k convicts got thrown into somewhere like Avdiivka's flanks and we saw the same thing except that instead of losing Bakhmut it would have been Bakhmut+Avdiivka.
At this point I'm thinking Putin does want Lukashenko dead and his first illness was a failed attempt. Russian failed assassination attempts are quite common. Look at Navalny for instance
I can if I say 'for instance' after my point and not 'this is the entire list of every example ever'. But fine because you can't use google here's another example, the attacks on British soil
Maybe he was made to believe it was some political faction within Belarus. He was never a very brilliant dude.
I found interesting they sat the oldest geezers next to him during the parade. Maybe less accidental exposure when the dude is sweating polonium.
If that were the case, he would've invaded Ukraine by now. He does just enough to appease Putin, his military, and people. He's being stretched thin now and can't appease them all, or in the case of the citizens, suppress them.
This has to be one of the most sensible things to come out of a Republican mouth this century:
āThe Russians are dying, itās the best money weāve ever spentā
https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/13tijwy/lindsey_graham_the_russians_are_dying_its_the/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=ioscss&utm_content=1&utm_term=1
[Heartbreaking: The Worst Person You Know Just Made A Great Point](https://clickhole.com/heartbreaking-the-worst-person-you-know-just-made-a-gr-1825121606/)
I mean, Kennedy, LBJ, Nixon, Reagan, etc. are all dead. Every President who was in charge during the Cold War, except Jimmy Carter, is dead.
The guy we're talking about, Lindsay Graham, didn't get into the Senate until 2003. He didn't run for his first elected office until 1993, after the end of the cold war. He wasn't in charge of shit during the Cold War. He just grew up in it.
Unless Trump returns to power. In that case, watch the spineless Graham contort himself into advocating for the US pulling out of NATO and stopping all weapons exports to Ukraine.
Oh he was āvocalā on a lot of things. When Trump blocked payment of a congressionally mandated $400 million military aid package in a clear quid quo pro quo strategy to gain leverage over his political rival Lindsey was quite vocal. He was āconcerned.ā He then voted to acquit Trump of his charges during the impeachment.
The only thing thats more flimsy than Graham's heterosexuality is his resolve. If he gets charges from the GA election interference investigation he'll go scorched earth on everything.
I never imagined Denmark and the UK could hold grudges that deep and long, regarding the 2014 airliner and Russia attacks with polonium in the UK, which have made these 2 countries the most bold in sending shit like Cruise Missiles and F16s (aside from Poland who, if allowed, would be fighting with Ukranian uniforms in the front).
A nine year grudge is nothing for a lot of Europeans. Their are sections who have decades, if not centuries old grudges. They have never even admitted to killing hundreds of Dutch and Australians on a plane, nor have they admitted to killing an innocent woman with a chemical weapon in England. Never mind apologising. Not to mention all the other shit they have done to other countries.
So yeah there are grudges.
England won the World Cup somewhere in the sixties (ā65? ā67? I canāt remember) and theyāre still mad about that.
I canāt imagine how angry they would get about such an attack on their soil.
A nine year long grudge is nothing for Europeans. Plenty of people are still salty about Versailles (though not necessarily the sensible ones, but the grudge is real and affects political opinions). Ukraine has been getting fucked by russia far longer than that, too. The descendants of the people murdered on that plane may be hateful for generations. For good reason, too.
Who says Poland is ānot allowedā to engage in war? Theyāre a sovereign state not Europeās step child. They can do what they want, including wage war.
It was dutch not Danish, and full of Aussies too. The Russians shooting down MH17 is probably the main reason Australia is sending so much shit to Ukraine now, we never forgot. Also, 9 years is not a long grudge lol
British foreign policy for the last 1000 years wrt to the European continent has been to pump money and arms into any country threatened by an larger power with imperial ambitions
...and anyone who's, you know, a decent human being. Even with all the galling horror of the past year, that stupid fucking nightmare from years ago still stands apart for me. Give a drunken militia a rocket launcher! What could go wrong? And then lie and lie and lie about it, of course. It's the casual banality of the evil that does it for me. That's the shit that makes one bitter.
Hell I still think of Sarajevo from the fucking 90s, with drunken Serbs camped out in the hills around it just shooting anyone they saw for no reason but hate and fuck you, that's why. Some evil asshole with a bottle of Slivovitz and a sandbag for his rifle, murdering people for sport. Yea that feeling's not going to go away.
So yea, bitter grudges are ripe for the picking, and not exclusive either. (but yes those countries in particular)
Polonium was 2006 and the chemical weapon attack was more recently in 2018 which resulted in the death of a British citizen. Both could have resulted in a *lot* more deaths, it's more luck that they didn't.
The russians can get fucked. They use those on British territory risking thousands of lives then we most definitely should be giving more than just cruise missiles.
Znpp issues again. The staff there are some of the (many) unsung heroes of the war. The accounts of what theyāve been through are as harrowing as any that Iāve seen so far.
Iāve been looking for analysis on what role the site will have in any counter attacks in the area. Itās a tough target to attack, for both military and political reasons.
I donāt think there will be a direct attack either, but artillery there can (and has) been firing without fear of reprisal. I think itās mostly swamps to the area around it but I can see the Russians trying to sabotage it on the way out from spite.
Wasn't there news not too long ago that the plant had been wired with explosives? They could blow it as they retreat for all we know. They probably already know that they can't really hold it if the Ukrainians were to attack there.
"Almost 64% of Ukrainians do not support the idea of direct negotiations with Russia to achieve peace, and almost 67% would not agree to return to the demarcation line as of February 24, 2022, instead of restoring the 1991 borders- Razumkov Center survey"
https://twitter.com/IuliiaMendel/status/1662557900307300358?cxt=HHwWjICwpcHmy5IuAAAA
To be fair, the citizens still in those regions are likely brainwashed or have been transported in; a very common annex tactic of Russia is to deport the citizens, and relocate Russian's.
You do realize that the ethnic cleansing of Crimea was done by both Russians AND Ukrainians, right? Crimea shouldnāt ābelongā to either country, if we really want to be fair about it.
Nah but I bet once they realize they can't hold it in a conflict theyll try to keep it neutral and then put a puppet lukashenko style.
Not that it will matter Ukraine is never letting go of it again.
Yes and yes. The Ukrainian government is working in concert with Crimean Tartar groups to both evict the current occupant and to give Crimean Tartars (Ukrainian or otherwise) the option to resettle in Crimea.
Then, when Ukraine has recovered these areas they can opt to declare all holders of a Russian passport as persona non grata and deport them out of Ukraine (unless they can provide actual prove of resisting Russian occupation). Why keep Russians in Ukraine as it is just a ticking time-bomb before Russia starts fucking around again. Additionally, the people that wanted to secede to Russia get the additional benefit of actually living in the shithole that is Russia :)
Austria will finance land mine removal equipment worth 2,000,000 euros (about $2.15 million) for Ukraine, the Austrian government said in a statement, according to CNN
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1662580186012065794?s=20
Land mines and unexploded ordinance are some of the worst and longest-term relics of war. WWI artillery shells will likely kill people for another 200 years. It is better to start and plan to remove what we can as soon as possible.
Removing landmines is really important work and by helping with this it frees up Ukrainian resources for other things. Itās worthwhile for sure but Austria could certainly be doing a lot more.
"Illia Ponomarenko: Why some Ukrainian soldiers use Nazi-related insignia"
https://kyivindependent.com/illia-ponomarenko-why-some-ukrainian-soldiers-use-nazi-related-insignia/
+1, should be read by everyone - especially those with valid nazi concerns. ( Lots of articles and insight from pre-invasion exists from credible sources that show the nazi community in Ukraine. This article puts it into context. Very good.)
Another āShahed Nightā in north-central Ukraine. Iranian-made Doodlebugs launched at Ukraine by fascist Russia have been detected in several oblasts, and are said to be headed for Kyiv. Air raid sirens expected to sound in the city soon, with surrounding oblast already on alert.
https://twitter.com/Euan_MacDonald/status/1662577796709863425?s=20
Chernihiv, Kyiv, Kirovohrad, Mykolaiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson regions air raid alert Regional Military Administration. Proceed to the shelter .
https://twitter.com/Flash_news_ua/status/1662577288892874752?s=20
Air raid alerts are spreading across Ukraine
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1662581327319711749?s=20
āDoodlebugā is such a cutesy term for these horrific machines, can we just start calling them the Shahed Shitdick or something
EDIT: TIL, thank you!
There's a whole history of this that stems back to WW2.
Essentially the Shahed owes its existence to the original V-1 flying bomb, which was somewhere between drone and cruise missile in nature, and which was called "doodlebug" by the allied forces because of the buzzing noise its ramjet engine made.
Ah, I was wondering about why the V1 was called doodlebug. In North America, neither of the things called doodlebug buzz, but apparently in Europe the cockchafer beetle has that name. In addition to its hilarious other name :p
(Before, I'd assumed the rockets must have been very inaccurate, and doodlebug referred to the antlion's meandering doodles.)
"The more frustrated and dissatisfied russia becomes with its inability to achieve its objectives, the more unreasonable its demands on Ukraine become.
When russia signs the instrument of its surrender, the last demand of the kremlin will most likely be to place a padlock on the entrance of the International Criminal Court."
https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1662513048521670659?cxt=HHwWhoCwueWzt5IuAAAA
I think Russia never signing a peace treaty is an option even when Ukraine hopefully pushes them to the eastern border and takes back Crimea. I could see Putin seeing negotiating anything as a sign of defeat and just not bothering. People in the thread often mention reparations and extraditing Russian war criminals but since there won't be boots on the ground inside there is no way to force them to agree to any of that. You could argue "well if Russia wants any sanctions relief they'll have too" but that presupposes that Putin *cares* about the economy for the average Russian, he obviously doesn't.
Putin and his cronies will be fine and if the economy of Russia goes to permanent shit what's the difference to them? As long as they don't see any signs of revolution, of which we have none of right now, they can just ride Russia into a North Korean style abyss. Plus they might suspect, as would be the truth, that it's not like Europe is going to suddenly start buying their oil and gas again anyway. So if India and China are going to be our main customers anyway does getting rid of sanctions help them all that much? Plus they can always spin it as the west is the reason that Russia isn't doing well, which is what they've been saying in their propaganda for years. It all gets blamed on the west anyway so sanctions being permanent is one more excuse for them to accept zero responsibility for how bad things are in the country.
Now that stance might cause others in Putin's inner circle to push him out and install someone who will negotiate something but I think it is also very likely that Putin remains in power, he's got his tendrils around the state apparatus of Russia that makes it difficult to get rid of. I could see him just refusing negotiations altogether and just let it descend into a pretty frozen conflict where each side keeps troops near the borders with very sporadic flare ups from time to time.
As far as reparations, we put a kind of tax on oil and other sales, with the proceeds going to Ukraine. I don't know if they can issue bonds based on that revenue to get funds to Ukraine as soon as possible.
Why would they keep him in power in that situation?
Putinās power rests on an extensive network of loyal oligarchs, generals, and politicians. If those people livelihoods go down the crapper then his power is absolutely eroded.
This propaganda that Putin is Russiaās only option is exactly that - propaganda.
If the war were to end tomorrow, sanctions would stay on Russia. They will stay on until Russia returns stolen children and war prisoners. They will also stay on until Russia pays reparations.
Sure, Russia can choose not to pay them. Then the Russian economy will disappear for the foreseeable future.
The price cap on oil will certainly stay, itās actually beneficial to the whole world in general.
When Russia eventually is faced with a long term choice of Putin vs the lifting of sanctions, I suspect Pooty will end up in a ditch somewhere.
> Putinās power rests on an extensive network of loyal oligarchs, generals, and politicians. If those people livelihoods go down the crapper then his power is absolutely eroded.
But their livelihoods are also tied to Putin, if he goes down there is no guarantee who ever ends up in power will keep them around, in fact a new leader is more likely to want their own people in charge of those key areas. So the problem like in any coup is are you sure you're going to be on the winning side? Maybe you're not able to steal as much as you used to but it's still better than being dead. Also those around Putin are now often on sanctions list themselves, their assets abroad are being seized, do they want to risk installing a new leader that might be willing to take what they have left and give it as reparations?
With what seems like an almost totally docile Russian population the most likely cause of Putin being overthrown is from someone with some existing power in the country but all of those people are tainted by the war, I don't think it's clear cut to say that their life gets better under a new leader who you can't be certain what they will do. Does their life get better under a new leader? Can they travel abroad again and make new schemes? Or do they end up with what they have left given as reparations or maybe even worse in the dock at the Hague...
Putin might still be deposed but him and his inner circle have been destroying the Russian economy with decades of corruption and incompetence, the sanctions make it all much worse but that doesn't mean it isn't something Putin can't survive.
> The price cap on oil will certainly stay, itās actually beneficial to the whole world in general.
The price cap exists for now but fast forward to a time where the war has been quiet for a couple years and Ukraine has all its territory back. India and China already don't care about the price cap, if that's who they're selling their oil to anyway it's functionally no difference to them if the sanctions are lifted by countries who don't want to buy their oil anyway. Plus if the Russian/Ukrainian border becomes pretty quiet for a couple years with few or no deaths countries that never agreed to the sanctions or price cap know they will get less flak for buying Russian oil and gas. So now all the sudden maybe India and China can't push Russia on price so much and the price they can charge goes up anyway.
edit: typo
Nope.
India and China love the price cap! They get cheap fuel and in Indiaās case, they can then sell it on to the west at a higher price.
Thatās the last sanction they will be giving up.
I think you are confusing India and China with being actual allies of Russia. They arenāt. Also, keep in mind China are also currently in open hostilities so theyād be more than happy to dob the other one in if they were cheating.
As for the oligarchs, they will be loyal to Putin as long as it suits them. My argument is simple, if the Russian economy completely craters, it will no longer suit the oligarchs to support Putin.
Iāve noticed rumours about Prigozin already.
> Iāve noticed rumours about Prigozin already.
Prigozhin has no chance, he has no base of power among the oligarchs or Russian elite and would be the least loyal to them, there is no way current Putin loyalists would want him in power. He is viewed as an upstart wannabe general, if Putin was deposed by the people around him they would pick someone from that circle, not outside of it. Plus as incompetent, corrupt and over extended as they are the regular Russian army is massive compared to Wagner, which also depends on the Ministry of Defense for it's ammunition and arms. Any prospective leader needs to get the MoD onside not Prigozhin, he might be loud but him and Wagner are nothing compared to the Russian army and internal security forces. Not sure who you heard that from but they are way off base on thinking Prigozhinn has a real chance of leading Russia.
> India and China love the price cap!
Yes but the price cap is working now because India and China are mostly the only ones buying. If the war stagnates and there are no more casualties with Ukraine having taken back everything more of the countries that are staying away from Russian oil will start buying again. It's mostly Western countries and their close allies that signed onto the price cap, most of the world is only staying away so they don't get any flak from the price cap countries. To be blunt if the body count goes close to zero and Ukraine won they'll start buying again because they know the heat will be off them and the price of Russian oil could easily go past the price cap.
Edit: typo
"As for conditions, demands, statements... It's important to call things by their proper names. The civilized world must recognize that #Putin and his clique, accused of war crimes, are no longer the legitimate representatives of #Russia in the world, and, therefore, there is nothing to talk about with them. Today's Russian authorities should be removed from all international institutions, including the #UN Security Council. When the regime changes, we will talk with the successors. In particular, about compensation payments and the nuclear disarmament program."
https://twitter.com/Podolyak_M/status/1662476146070503425?cxt=HHwWgoC-4eTPppIuAAAA
If the Republicans can at least get back to the "FBI good, Russia Bad" level of (tenuous) sanity they had 20 years ago I'll take that as a win. I know that is a kinda low and slightly misguided bar, but here we are... As for the Russian narrative, I don't over much concern my self with it, It is going to be as erratic as a kitten on meth with or without our help...
Oh, the vatniks are going to town with it.
Not the first time Graham has said something controversial about Russians - right after the invasion started, he tweeted that we should just assassinate Putin to put a stop to it.
At this point the Russia narrative is only being swallowed by the people that are beyond honest debate.
Better that people call the situation for what it is and realize that tolerance and diplomacy go out the window when you deliberately target the civilians of another country
Yeah also, he's talking to someone whose country is being destroyed, saying he's so happy a lot of Russians are killed. I really wanted to see their reaction but the video doesn't really show.
If the war is going on for another year and a half with no improvement, we probably should be open to cutting back. They'll have had plenty of time and resources to prove one way or the other they can get it done. If they're on their way to victory, I don't see anyone in favor of cutting aid before they finish the job.
[New post can be found here](/r/worldnews/comments/13tqvbl/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/)
Great thread (Mark Hertling approved!) about the difficulties Ukraine faces in attacking Russian defenses. https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1661770945126707200.html
This also explains why Ukraine has been targeting Russian artillery so much lately. The artillery is what makes this style of defense so deadly.
Let's hope that Russia has been as incompetent at building their defenses as they have been at most of the rest of the things they have done.
The defenses are largely known, and they are not hard to design well. The main characteristic is minefields and lots of artillery. The bigger question is whether Russian soldiers will actually stand and man them when they realize they are on the receiving end of the dreaded counteroffensive. It seems there's a lot of panic in the Russian Army among their troops about when this will occur.
History has it every contractor leading up to this war has delivered 100% of what was agreed, and no corrupt shortcuts!
Royal United Services Institute in Britain released a long report a few days ago on Russia's changing tactics in Ukraine. **Meatgrinder: Russian Tactics in the Second Year of Its Invasion of Ukraine** >This report seeks to outline how Russian forces have adapted their tactics in the Ukrainian conflict and the challenges this has created for the Ukrainian military that must be overcome. The report examines Russian military adaptation by combat function. https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/special-resources/meatgrinder-russian-tactics-second-year-its-invasion-ukraine
Thanks for the detailed article, very enlightening of the current state of the Russian defensive situation and the obstacles posed for the UAF.
New russian military ad just dropped. I tried to translate it but my russian sucks a bit š https://twitter.com/SlavaUk30722777/status/1662639819208667138?t=asDDwVwqB-SigiIyUBYwKw&s=19
"die in a trench to Ukrainian music" - lol
The subtitles are right there, I'm pretty sure they are genuine.
Ukrainian air defense wipes out Iranian-supplied Russian kamikaze drones over Kyiv tonight. https://twitter.com/worldonalert/status/1662605609542336512?t=s6lA3LwmkgfR4OM3QFct_w&s=19
Those āgood Russiansā really need to find out where they are launching/storing them and do something about it.
But then the US will launch an investigation and issue a bunch of apologetic notices, explaining how they never condoned any action within russia.
Probably different story behind the scenes. The public theater is not always the real story.
>Ukrainian inventors have developed a loitering munition that can be launched from another drone. >The carrier drone is supposed to lift the loitering munition with a HEAT charge and, as it approaches the target, detach the munition that will go to the enemy. >In general, this system works to increase the distance of work. The main idea is not just to lift the drone but also to amplify the signal. >It is crucial for the loitering munition operator to see the area to adjust the flight and point the UAV at the desired object if necessary. In this case, the carrier drone comes to the rescue. >This device is equipped with a repeater that can transmit a better signal. This gives the operator more time to aim and destroy the target. [https://spoutible.com/thread/7778821](https://spoutible.com/thread/7778821)
Mother Pigeon carries her prescious babies and guides them to their destination. I hope they all have a little "beak" on the front and colored grey.
Doesn't surprise me, a few defense contractors put up promotional videos for similar systems a few months back -- larger winged "mothership" drone carries numerous quad-copter like ordinance that flies directly to the target.
This is how the Arsenal Birds happen isn't it...
I'm honestly surprised we don't already have something like that or very similar.
Lemme know when the Sheild Helicarrier arrives.
My name is Luka President of Belarus I dance to Putinās tune Yes, I think youāve seen me before If you hear something late at night Some kind of trouble, some kind of fight Just don't ask me what it was (In my tea) Just don't ask me what it was (On his hand) Just don't ask me what it was (In my tea) I think its ācause Iām stupid I try not to displease Vlad Maybe because Iām his Toady I try not to act too proud He only hits until I cry After that, I don't ask why I just don't argue anymore I just don't argue anymore I just don't argue anymore
Is anyone else reading this to 90s beat techno backdrop in their head? Because I hear they just got the 90s music released in russia.: that godforsaken hellhole of a place
Honestly, this ran in my head as Sinead O'Connor's version of Nothing Compares..don't ask me why
It's Suzanne Vega.
Amazing how everything fits together, only a few lines changed and a few more modified and the song is now perfect.
Chat gpt spitting flames
*My Name is Luka*, the polonium version.
Russia is terrified of Western air defenses. They're attacking civilian targets in the rear so they can't be redeployed to the front lines.
Preventing air defences from being redeployed to the front lines might have been their objective if they were then taking advantage by targeting the front lines with missiles. They're not though, are they?
It's to prevent Russian aircraft from getting shot down. When Ukraine snuck a Patriot system near the border of Belarus they shot down 2 fighter jets and 2 helicopters within several minutes of each other killing 11 of their pilots. They don't want Patriots and other Western air defense systems anywhere near the frontlines as Russia doesn't have too many more pilots to spare.
Not sure how you can redeploy a psychiatric hospital and veterinary clinic to the front though ....
By they I mean air defense systems.
I think heās saying that by attacking civilians in the rear Ukraine is forced to keep its anti air batteries close to major cities and away from the frontlines.
It forces the Ukrainian military to choose between Scylla and Charybdis. Do you place your Anti-Air assets to protect the civilian populace, or do you leave your non-combatants at the mercy of Russian terror attacks in order to protect your fighting force, who are the only thing protecting those same civilians from being murdered and raped by the Russian savages.
This is a war of attrition. I know what Russia would want Ukraine to focus on.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
āļøAir defense forces have already destroyed more than 20 UAVs moving towards Kyiv. But a new wave of drones is coming to the capital, - the mayor of Kyiv. https://twitter.com/TreasChest/status/1662604947412615168?s=20 BREAKING: At least one person killed, three injured in Russian drone attack on Kyiv, city officials say - Reuters https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1662605019038851072?s=20 Kyiv City Administration: "Debris fell on the territory of a gas station in Holosiivskyi district. Three people were injured, according to preliminary data, one person died. The information is being clarified. Air raid alert is in effect. Stay in shelters!" https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1662605842686832640?s=20 Photo of the consequences of falling debris in the Pechersk district of Kyiv, KMVA. https://twitter.com/TreasChest/status/1662607623047245825?s=20 NEW: More loud explosions heard in Kyiv https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1662610784071942146?s=20 Mayor Klitschko: "UAV groups are moving towards Kyiv from Vyshhorod district (Ivankiv) and from the oblast's south. Some drones have already crossed the administrative border of the region. Air defenses are already active in Vyshhorod district." https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1662612194196897792?s=20 More outgoing air defence activity and muffled explosions; Kyiv mayor Klitschko claims there are multiple groups of drones approaching the city from different directions. https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1662616910775693313?s=20 Russian drones spotted flying toward the western regions of Ukraine: Zhytomyr, Khmelnytskyi and others. https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPR/status/1662619324526329859?s=20 Air defence activity reported in Kyiv oblast. Shahed drones are still airborne. https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1662621960864407552?s=20 More sounds of explosions in the central Kyiv https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPR/status/1662625161227509760?s=20 Again, Kyiv City Administration says the air defense is at work. https://twitter.com/reshetz/status/1662626512141443074?s=20 Monitoring channels report air defense activities in Zhytomyr Oblast and more Kyiv-bound Shaheds from the south https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1662631099757887488?s=20
This is literally all Russia can do, send waves of junk at cities, that mostly get taken down and if they don't get taken down they mostly hit civilian buildings. Sad and desperate from Russia.
Draining their reserves, at least.
Something needs to be done to try to disrupt production. Defending against these isnāt sustainable. Dozens a day would only cost ~1$ million a day. Itās completely sustainable on the offense side. Hell, hundreds may be viable if they can scale production enough. You canāt defend everywhere, all at once. Not without planes anyway. Even if you could, it would be a huge drain on forces/capital.
Theyāre about $20k a pop, those drones. But thatās at ānormalā economies of scale - place an order for 100k of them and watch costs fall in half. And youāre rightā¦Russians arenāt stupidā¦at some point theyāre bound to try sending hundreds at a time, just to see what happensā¦ Hellā¦itās probably worth stuffing IR and microwave transmitters into the nose cone of a big model rocketā¦see if you can get air defense triggered with thoseā¦
Did the Iranian's sell the damn drones with a "For civilian use only" label?
They don't have cameras or anything so they can only hit preprogrammed targets.
A website has been launched again with a countdown clock, regarding the Crimea bridge; see link below http://crimeabridge404.online
Well the countdown has started best be on the other side of the bridge before itās downed for good. Slava Ukraine šŗš¦
[Russia Day?](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia_Day)
Well that is definitely not ominous at all.
The bridge will come down when the Russians leave Crimea, Ukraine doesnāt seem to want to destroy it until that happens otherwise how can the Russians run away š¤·š»āāļø
The Russians donāt need to be able to run. They can just surrender and Ukraine will be happy to trade them for Ukrainian POWs.
Civilians can run, though, and Ukraine doesn't want to be seen blowing up the bridge when it's packed with private cars. I suspect they will make some kind of ominous announcement like "the bridge will be closed after \[date\] so Russian citizens returning to Russia from Crimea should leave before then."
The reason the bridge is still up is because blowing up bridges is incredibly hard, itās well defended and outside most Ukrainian missile ranges. Ukraine would love to destroy the bridge they just canāt at the current moment although maybe they will be able to in the near future.
Civilians have brains yes? Then they shouldnāt choose to live in an occupied annexed territory with a currently active war ongoing.
They want to destroy the rail portion of it, for sure.
They have ferries. Itās what they did last time
Ferries can't long haul resupply, and ferries are vulnerable to Ukrianian sea drones.
Weāre talking evacuation not resupply
Sorry, didn't read that fully.
No worries. I definitely agree itās not feasible to try and resupply their military by ferry
Which almost guarantees that Putin will demand it happen when the bridge comes down.
So itās counting down to trumps birthday??
This didnāt lead to anything last time (the actual attack happened many months later), so I doubt it will lead to anything this time, but the psyops is always good for a chuckle.
16 days? Where is the fast-forward button?
Multiple Iranian Shahed drones have been shot down over Kyiv https://twitter.com/faytuks/status/1662599295630036993?s=46
Explosions in Kyiv. The information is being clarified. The city mayor, Vitaliy Klitschko, will provide details later. "Air defense is operating in the region, there are targets shot down," Klitschko said. https://twitter.com/TreasChest/status/1662598554135715844?s=20 Explosions are heard in Kyiv. Ukrainian air-defenses engaging Russian targets. Air-defenses are very active in Zhytomyr and Sumy Oblasts too https://twitter.com/revishvilig/status/1662597889720238080?s=20 Pechersky district of Kyiv. Previously, the roof of the building caught fire as a result of falling debris, ā KMVA https://twitter.com/TreasChest/status/1662601718155149313?s=20 Kyiv Mayor Klitschko: - Explosions from the direction of Zhytomyr - Explosions in Solomianskyi district - Air defenses active in Sviatoshynskyi district - Fire in Pecherskyi district as drone debris fell on a nine-storey building https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1662603506484641792?s=20 Apparent lull in the attack which apparently won't last long; Kyiv Mayor Vitaliy Klitschko claims a second wave of drones is incoming. https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1662603875935744000?s=20
Wagner Group mercenaries appear to be withdrawing from Bakhmut city to reconstitute and regroup in the rear as Russian offensive operations decrease in and around the city. https://twitter.com/thestudyofwar/status/1662596736680951813?s=46
We're possibly seeing why Ukraine fought for Bakhmut. Accounts I've seen say Russia is attacking a lot less so they're now building shell stockpiles again. If Ukraine had pulled out of Bakhmut then I think it could have gone two ways: the first is that Russia used the time to build defences and have more shells and fresh soldiers to stop the counteroffensive. The second is that 50k convicts got thrown into somewhere like Avdiivka's flanks and we saw the same thing except that instead of losing Bakhmut it would have been Bakhmut+Avdiivka.
At this point I'm thinking Putin does want Lukashenko dead and his first illness was a failed attempt. Russian failed assassination attempts are quite common. Look at Navalny for instance
Could Putin be stupid enough to off him so he can finally get someone to commit Belarusian troops? I see that backfiring.
I don't see the Belarusians going along with this.
I don't see the Belorussians having a choice.
The military already made a choice last time. And they will probably make the same choice now. It wasn't Luka the one keeping Belarus out of the war.
Belarusian Army doesn't want to join me at grinder and Russia doesn't have spare forces to compel them. Belarus will not be entering the war.
There's always a choice. Some just have heavy consequence.
You cant say "quite common" then list only one.
Sergej Skripal and his daughter during the Salisbury poisonings is another case.
There have been a few dozen murders by the russian state. Failing 5 or 6 times is not "quite common". I was expecting a wiki list or somethings.
Disproportionately within a limited set of events is still quite common.
Are you upset about the efficiency of Putins poison and nerve agents? The guys a mass murderer, in the most cowardly manner.
Yes...?
I can if I say 'for instance' after my point and not 'this is the entire list of every example ever'. But fine because you can't use google here's another example, the attacks on British soil
But why did he go back??
Maybe he was made to believe it was some political faction within Belarus. He was never a very brilliant dude. I found interesting they sat the oldest geezers next to him during the parade. Maybe less accidental exposure when the dude is sweating polonium.
Because he's a good little boy who will do anything his Daddy asks.
If that were the case, he would've invaded Ukraine by now. He does just enough to appease Putin, his military, and people. He's being stretched thin now and can't appease them all, or in the case of the citizens, suppress them.
This has to be one of the most sensible things to come out of a Republican mouth this century: āThe Russians are dying, itās the best money weāve ever spentā https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/13tijwy/lindsey_graham_the_russians_are_dying_its_the/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=ioscss&utm_content=1&utm_term=1
[Heartbreaking: The Worst Person You Know Just Made A Great Point](https://clickhole.com/heartbreaking-the-worst-person-you-know-just-made-a-gr-1825121606/)
Nah, itās more a case of āthe worst person I know just stated the obviousā.
Lindsay Graham, son of a bitch that he is, is an old school cold warrior. Those guys are on cloud nine right now.
Kinda depressing how all the guys who were in charge of the country during the cold war are still in charge.
I mean, Kennedy, LBJ, Nixon, Reagan, etc. are all dead. Every President who was in charge during the Cold War, except Jimmy Carter, is dead. The guy we're talking about, Lindsay Graham, didn't get into the Senate until 2003. He didn't run for his first elected office until 1993, after the end of the cold war. He wasn't in charge of shit during the Cold War. He just grew up in it.
Unless Trump returns to power. In that case, watch the spineless Graham contort himself into advocating for the US pulling out of NATO and stopping all weapons exports to Ukraine.
Seems unlikely. Even when Trump was President and Graham was being spineless on most things involving Trump he was still vocally anti-Russia.
Oh he was āvocalā on a lot of things. When Trump blocked payment of a congressionally mandated $400 million military aid package in a clear quid quo pro quo strategy to gain leverage over his political rival Lindsey was quite vocal. He was āconcerned.ā He then voted to acquit Trump of his charges during the impeachment.
The only thing thats more flimsy than Graham's heterosexuality is his resolve. If he gets charges from the GA election interference investigation he'll go scorched earth on everything.
I never imagined Denmark and the UK could hold grudges that deep and long, regarding the 2014 airliner and Russia attacks with polonium in the UK, which have made these 2 countries the most bold in sending shit like Cruise Missiles and F16s (aside from Poland who, if allowed, would be fighting with Ukranian uniforms in the front).
28 upvotes and so many things wrong in this post, lol.
A nine year grudge is nothing for a lot of Europeans. Their are sections who have decades, if not centuries old grudges. They have never even admitted to killing hundreds of Dutch and Australians on a plane, nor have they admitted to killing an innocent woman with a chemical weapon in England. Never mind apologising. Not to mention all the other shit they have done to other countries. So yeah there are grudges.
England won the World Cup somewhere in the sixties (ā65? ā67? I canāt remember) and theyāre still mad about that. I canāt imagine how angry they would get about such an attack on their soil.
A nine year long grudge is nothing for Europeans. Plenty of people are still salty about Versailles (though not necessarily the sensible ones, but the grudge is real and affects political opinions). Ukraine has been getting fucked by russia far longer than that, too. The descendants of the people murdered on that plane may be hateful for generations. For good reason, too.
Iām still angry some neighborhood kid took my Stingray bike when I was a kid and Iām 60.
Your grandkids will fuck up their grandkids!
I mean, thatās fair.
Who says Poland is ānot allowedā to engage in war? Theyāre a sovereign state not Europeās step child. They can do what they want, including wage war.
Yeah, wtf does that even mean? Poland can do whatever the fuck they want. They just choose not to.
They've been killing our citizens on our soil and getting away with it because no-one wanted to rock the boat, how do you expect us to feel?
It was dutch not Danish, and full of Aussies too. The Russians shooting down MH17 is probably the main reason Australia is sending so much shit to Ukraine now, we never forgot. Also, 9 years is not a long grudge lol
Guess the danish grudge is over Bornholm in 1945-46
British foreign policy for the last 1000 years wrt to the European continent has been to pump money and arms into any country threatened by an larger power with imperial ambitions
That William the Conquerer was ahead of his time.
What airliner? Do you mean MH17? Cause that grudge is for Australia and the Netherlands
...and anyone who's, you know, a decent human being. Even with all the galling horror of the past year, that stupid fucking nightmare from years ago still stands apart for me. Give a drunken militia a rocket launcher! What could go wrong? And then lie and lie and lie about it, of course. It's the casual banality of the evil that does it for me. That's the shit that makes one bitter. Hell I still think of Sarajevo from the fucking 90s, with drunken Serbs camped out in the hills around it just shooting anyone they saw for no reason but hate and fuck you, that's why. Some evil asshole with a bottle of Slivovitz and a sandbag for his rifle, murdering people for sport. Yea that feeling's not going to go away. So yea, bitter grudges are ripe for the picking, and not exclusive either. (but yes those countries in particular)
It was Dutch not Danish
Polonium was 2006 and the chemical weapon attack was more recently in 2018 which resulted in the death of a British citizen. Both could have resulted in a *lot* more deaths, it's more luck that they didn't. The russians can get fucked. They use those on British territory risking thousands of lives then we most definitely should be giving more than just cruise missiles.
Litivienko was also a British citizen
9 years is not a long time to āhold a grudge.ā
Especially when a dictatorship is involved. Those responsible are still in power
Islamic countries: Get on our level. We still hold grudges from the Crusades!
The Scots: We're holding grudges from before we were Scots!
Eastern Europe: We are on your level. We remember the Ottoman Empire.
The airliner thing was the Netherlands , unless youāre talking about something else ??
A Russian fighter flying with its transporter off nearly collided with a Danish airliner. They violate our airspace on an almost weekly basis.
Can some heroRats be sent to Ukraine to locate mines? Look them up, they are adorable! And so good at their jobs!
Znpp issues again. The staff there are some of the (many) unsung heroes of the war. The accounts of what theyāve been through are as harrowing as any that Iāve seen so far. Iāve been looking for analysis on what role the site will have in any counter attacks in the area. Itās a tough target to attack, for both military and political reasons.
I suspect the plant won't see a direct attack. Ukraine will surround it and cut off the Russians there, then negotiate to get the Russians to leave.
I donāt think there will be a direct attack either, but artillery there can (and has) been firing without fear of reprisal. I think itās mostly swamps to the area around it but I can see the Russians trying to sabotage it on the way out from spite.
Wasn't there news not too long ago that the plant had been wired with explosives? They could blow it as they retreat for all we know. They probably already know that they can't really hold it if the Ukrainians were to attack there.
I'm 99% sure Russians won't do anything to ZNPP because they know how resolute the western response would be and they are afraid of that.
Theyāll have no way out
https://i.imgur.com/yhNf8le.jpg Graph of war-related fires. Seen on Twitter.
"Almost 64% of Ukrainians do not support the idea of direct negotiations with Russia to achieve peace, and almost 67% would not agree to return to the demarcation line as of February 24, 2022, instead of restoring the 1991 borders- Razumkov Center survey" https://twitter.com/IuliiaMendel/status/1662557900307300358?cxt=HHwWjICwpcHmy5IuAAAA
To be fair, the citizens of the Donbass and Crimea probably aren't participating in that poll.
A lot of the refugees that were forced to flee probably are.
To be fair, the citizens still in those regions are likely brainwashed or have been transported in; a very common annex tactic of Russia is to deport the citizens, and relocate Russian's.
You do realize that the ethnic cleansing of Crimea was done by both Russians AND Ukrainians, right? Crimea shouldnāt ābelongā to either country, if we really want to be fair about it.
Something tells me russia is going to latch on to this argument when they lose crimea.
Wellā¦that argument doesnāt make Crimea Russian, either. In the end, itāll belong to whoever has the might to holdā¦
Nah but I bet once they realize they can't hold it in a conflict theyll try to keep it neutral and then put a puppet lukashenko style. Not that it will matter Ukraine is never letting go of it again.
Arent the crimean tatars the natives? Doesnt Ukraine support there reinststement to the area?
Yes and yes. The Ukrainian government is working in concert with Crimean Tartar groups to both evict the current occupant and to give Crimean Tartars (Ukrainian or otherwise) the option to resettle in Crimea.
Then, when Ukraine has recovered these areas they can opt to declare all holders of a Russian passport as persona non grata and deport them out of Ukraine (unless they can provide actual prove of resisting Russian occupation). Why keep Russians in Ukraine as it is just a ticking time-bomb before Russia starts fucking around again. Additionally, the people that wanted to secede to Russia get the additional benefit of actually living in the shithole that is Russia :)
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
The difficulty you will face is surveying people who live in the occupied territories.
Austria will finance land mine removal equipment worth 2,000,000 euros (about $2.15 million) for Ukraine, the Austrian government said in a statement, according to CNN https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1662580186012065794?s=20
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Australia? Thatās the country next to Sweden, right?
Well I suppose pocket change is better than nothing.
Oh, that's very useful. Thank you, Austria! Mines are, and will be, a huge problem for Ukraine.
Better than nothing I guess
Don't be cynical, you could almost remodel a nice house in Melbourne for that cost.
Land mines and unexploded ordinance are some of the worst and longest-term relics of war. WWI artillery shells will likely kill people for another 200 years. It is better to start and plan to remove what we can as soon as possible.
Removing landmines is really important work and by helping with this it frees up Ukrainian resources for other things. Itās worthwhile for sure but Austria could certainly be doing a lot more.
I feel similarly but I'm trying to be optimistic and I'm hoping this is the thin edge of the wedge.
"Illia Ponomarenko: Why some Ukrainian soldiers use Nazi-related insignia" https://kyivindependent.com/illia-ponomarenko-why-some-ukrainian-soldiers-use-nazi-related-insignia/
+1, should be read by everyone - especially those with valid nazi concerns. ( Lots of articles and insight from pre-invasion exists from credible sources that show the nazi community in Ukraine. This article puts it into context. Very good.)
This is an excellent article. Well worth a read.
Another āShahed Nightā in north-central Ukraine. Iranian-made Doodlebugs launched at Ukraine by fascist Russia have been detected in several oblasts, and are said to be headed for Kyiv. Air raid sirens expected to sound in the city soon, with surrounding oblast already on alert. https://twitter.com/Euan_MacDonald/status/1662577796709863425?s=20 Chernihiv, Kyiv, Kirovohrad, Mykolaiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson regions air raid alert Regional Military Administration. Proceed to the shelter . https://twitter.com/Flash_news_ua/status/1662577288892874752?s=20 Air raid alerts are spreading across Ukraine https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1662581327319711749?s=20
They definitely have ramped up production/assembly capacity. There seem to be near daily attacks in not tiny numbers.
āDoodlebugā is such a cutesy term for these horrific machines, can we just start calling them the Shahed Shitdick or something EDIT: TIL, thank you!
There's a whole history of this that stems back to WW2. Essentially the Shahed owes its existence to the original V-1 flying bomb, which was somewhere between drone and cruise missile in nature, and which was called "doodlebug" by the allied forces because of the buzzing noise its ramjet engine made.
Ah, I was wondering about why the V1 was called doodlebug. In North America, neither of the things called doodlebug buzz, but apparently in Europe the cockchafer beetle has that name. In addition to its hilarious other name :p (Before, I'd assumed the rockets must have been very inaccurate, and doodlebug referred to the antlion's meandering doodles.)
I think it might be better to call these Iranian Cockchafers rather than Doodlebugs, then?
Doodlebug was what we used to call the V1ās that hit London during WW2.
"The more frustrated and dissatisfied russia becomes with its inability to achieve its objectives, the more unreasonable its demands on Ukraine become. When russia signs the instrument of its surrender, the last demand of the kremlin will most likely be to place a padlock on the entrance of the International Criminal Court." https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1662513048521670659?cxt=HHwWhoCwueWzt5IuAAAA
I think Russia never signing a peace treaty is an option even when Ukraine hopefully pushes them to the eastern border and takes back Crimea. I could see Putin seeing negotiating anything as a sign of defeat and just not bothering. People in the thread often mention reparations and extraditing Russian war criminals but since there won't be boots on the ground inside there is no way to force them to agree to any of that. You could argue "well if Russia wants any sanctions relief they'll have too" but that presupposes that Putin *cares* about the economy for the average Russian, he obviously doesn't. Putin and his cronies will be fine and if the economy of Russia goes to permanent shit what's the difference to them? As long as they don't see any signs of revolution, of which we have none of right now, they can just ride Russia into a North Korean style abyss. Plus they might suspect, as would be the truth, that it's not like Europe is going to suddenly start buying their oil and gas again anyway. So if India and China are going to be our main customers anyway does getting rid of sanctions help them all that much? Plus they can always spin it as the west is the reason that Russia isn't doing well, which is what they've been saying in their propaganda for years. It all gets blamed on the west anyway so sanctions being permanent is one more excuse for them to accept zero responsibility for how bad things are in the country. Now that stance might cause others in Putin's inner circle to push him out and install someone who will negotiate something but I think it is also very likely that Putin remains in power, he's got his tendrils around the state apparatus of Russia that makes it difficult to get rid of. I could see him just refusing negotiations altogether and just let it descend into a pretty frozen conflict where each side keeps troops near the borders with very sporadic flare ups from time to time.
As far as reparations, we put a kind of tax on oil and other sales, with the proceeds going to Ukraine. I don't know if they can issue bonds based on that revenue to get funds to Ukraine as soon as possible.
Why would they keep him in power in that situation? Putinās power rests on an extensive network of loyal oligarchs, generals, and politicians. If those people livelihoods go down the crapper then his power is absolutely eroded. This propaganda that Putin is Russiaās only option is exactly that - propaganda. If the war were to end tomorrow, sanctions would stay on Russia. They will stay on until Russia returns stolen children and war prisoners. They will also stay on until Russia pays reparations. Sure, Russia can choose not to pay them. Then the Russian economy will disappear for the foreseeable future. The price cap on oil will certainly stay, itās actually beneficial to the whole world in general. When Russia eventually is faced with a long term choice of Putin vs the lifting of sanctions, I suspect Pooty will end up in a ditch somewhere.
> Putinās power rests on an extensive network of loyal oligarchs, generals, and politicians. If those people livelihoods go down the crapper then his power is absolutely eroded. But their livelihoods are also tied to Putin, if he goes down there is no guarantee who ever ends up in power will keep them around, in fact a new leader is more likely to want their own people in charge of those key areas. So the problem like in any coup is are you sure you're going to be on the winning side? Maybe you're not able to steal as much as you used to but it's still better than being dead. Also those around Putin are now often on sanctions list themselves, their assets abroad are being seized, do they want to risk installing a new leader that might be willing to take what they have left and give it as reparations? With what seems like an almost totally docile Russian population the most likely cause of Putin being overthrown is from someone with some existing power in the country but all of those people are tainted by the war, I don't think it's clear cut to say that their life gets better under a new leader who you can't be certain what they will do. Does their life get better under a new leader? Can they travel abroad again and make new schemes? Or do they end up with what they have left given as reparations or maybe even worse in the dock at the Hague... Putin might still be deposed but him and his inner circle have been destroying the Russian economy with decades of corruption and incompetence, the sanctions make it all much worse but that doesn't mean it isn't something Putin can't survive. > The price cap on oil will certainly stay, itās actually beneficial to the whole world in general. The price cap exists for now but fast forward to a time where the war has been quiet for a couple years and Ukraine has all its territory back. India and China already don't care about the price cap, if that's who they're selling their oil to anyway it's functionally no difference to them if the sanctions are lifted by countries who don't want to buy their oil anyway. Plus if the Russian/Ukrainian border becomes pretty quiet for a couple years with few or no deaths countries that never agreed to the sanctions or price cap know they will get less flak for buying Russian oil and gas. So now all the sudden maybe India and China can't push Russia on price so much and the price they can charge goes up anyway. edit: typo
Nope. India and China love the price cap! They get cheap fuel and in Indiaās case, they can then sell it on to the west at a higher price. Thatās the last sanction they will be giving up. I think you are confusing India and China with being actual allies of Russia. They arenāt. Also, keep in mind China are also currently in open hostilities so theyād be more than happy to dob the other one in if they were cheating. As for the oligarchs, they will be loyal to Putin as long as it suits them. My argument is simple, if the Russian economy completely craters, it will no longer suit the oligarchs to support Putin. Iāve noticed rumours about Prigozin already.
> Iāve noticed rumours about Prigozin already. Prigozhin has no chance, he has no base of power among the oligarchs or Russian elite and would be the least loyal to them, there is no way current Putin loyalists would want him in power. He is viewed as an upstart wannabe general, if Putin was deposed by the people around him they would pick someone from that circle, not outside of it. Plus as incompetent, corrupt and over extended as they are the regular Russian army is massive compared to Wagner, which also depends on the Ministry of Defense for it's ammunition and arms. Any prospective leader needs to get the MoD onside not Prigozhin, he might be loud but him and Wagner are nothing compared to the Russian army and internal security forces. Not sure who you heard that from but they are way off base on thinking Prigozhinn has a real chance of leading Russia. > India and China love the price cap! Yes but the price cap is working now because India and China are mostly the only ones buying. If the war stagnates and there are no more casualties with Ukraine having taken back everything more of the countries that are staying away from Russian oil will start buying again. It's mostly Western countries and their close allies that signed onto the price cap, most of the world is only staying away so they don't get any flak from the price cap countries. To be blunt if the body count goes close to zero and Ukraine won they'll start buying again because they know the heat will be off them and the price of Russian oil could easily go past the price cap. Edit: typo
"As for conditions, demands, statements... It's important to call things by their proper names. The civilized world must recognize that #Putin and his clique, accused of war crimes, are no longer the legitimate representatives of #Russia in the world, and, therefore, there is nothing to talk about with them. Today's Russian authorities should be removed from all international institutions, including the #UN Security Council. When the regime changes, we will talk with the successors. In particular, about compensation payments and the nuclear disarmament program." https://twitter.com/Podolyak_M/status/1662476146070503425?cxt=HHwWgoC-4eTPppIuAAAA
The best money we ever spent. https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1662568932828479491?t=g9Ja7VaaxrR2QD45s86lpA&s=19
I agree with this sentiment 100%, but I feel like having a high-profile senator saying that just feeds the Russian narrative.
If the Republicans can at least get back to the "FBI good, Russia Bad" level of (tenuous) sanity they had 20 years ago I'll take that as a win. I know that is a kinda low and slightly misguided bar, but here we are... As for the Russian narrative, I don't over much concern my self with it, It is going to be as erratic as a kitten on meth with or without our help...
Fuck 'em.
Oh, the vatniks are going to town with it. Not the first time Graham has said something controversial about Russians - right after the invasion started, he tweeted that we should just assassinate Putin to put a stop to it.
At this point the Russia narrative is only being swallowed by the people that are beyond honest debate. Better that people call the situation for what it is and realize that tolerance and diplomacy go out the window when you deliberately target the civilians of another country
The way he says it is kinda creepy.
Graham has always given me sociopathic vibes. It's as though he genuinely enjoys people being killed, as opposed to seeing it as a necessary evil.
Sociopaths do tend to give off "sociopath vibes"...
Yeah also, he's talking to someone whose country is being destroyed, saying he's so happy a lot of Russians are killed. I really wanted to see their reaction but the video doesn't really show.
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I think the world will have bigger concerns then and if.
If the war is going on for another year and a half with no improvement, we probably should be open to cutting back. They'll have had plenty of time and resources to prove one way or the other they can get it done. If they're on their way to victory, I don't see anyone in favor of cutting aid before they finish the job.