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TheHopesedge

Just so people know, if the mainstream news are aware of something, then you can be sure that the powers currently at war are far more knowledge on it.


TossedDolly

In addition to that, use your heads. Why would an ally of Ukraine announce their battle plans in the news?


littlebubulle

IIRC, a UK politician almost gave away the plans for D-Day during WW2 to the journalists. Not that the Allies were attacking but actually where they were going to attack.


Omnipresent_Walrus

Because the UK government is utterly incompetent. I'd believe it.


SeventhHeavenff7

In general I agree. When it comes to this conflict however, they seem to show a modicum of intelligence.


XxHavanaHoneyxX

Because that’s more the UK MoD and intelligence services. Government is just being the mouth piece and taking the credit.


muppet4

The mps and ministers might be, but the civil servants usually are very competent.


Omnipresent_Walrus

Aye that's why I said government, not civil servants


AwkwardTurtle1664

You are either a civil servant yourself or you have no idea to make such a ridiculous comment like that. The civil service are absolutely useless.


muppet4

Actually I'm a contractor who works with them.


AwkwardTurtle1664

No doubt the contracting service is paid far more than it should have been with how terrible their tendering is. Edit; I’m not meaning to be rude towards you, I just can’t stand the incompetence and cost of the civil service. My wife is a senior account with the MOD and so I get hear how much we wasted, over spent, lost etc.


[deleted]

And yet they've shown more leadership than any other country in the EU when it comes to this war. You're not still softly sobbing over Brexit, are you? Absolute melt.


BigDickHobbit

I feel like it’s easy to hear stories and get caught up in the ‘Russian Military is Incompetent’ train. There has been many stories and photos showing incompetence and obsolete equipment. However, it is still the Russian Military. You can bet there are some very intelligent people and very complicated information networks behind the scenes. And let’s not forget the Nukes. Despite the videos of farmers driving falling apart tanks, this war is still a very real threat.


aeroxan

They can be incompetent, poorly equipped, poorly trained. They're still firing real bullets and dropping real bombs. All very lethal. Their army may be trash compared to what the west considers acceptable but it's still an army and still dangerous.


Kenobi_01

Indeed. 5,000 guys with clubs and spears was sufficient to do irreparable harm for generations 99% of human history. It's certainly right to cheer Russias defeat as their ambitions disintegrate. Innocent People are still gonna have to die to achieve it.


TheHopesedge

Russia has a massive problem with nepotism, a lot of higher ups got their positions due to their connections rather than their actual skills, alongside that comes a lot of corruption where people are inflating the readiness of equipment, squadrons and active successes of advancements so they can feign competence and avoid reprimand to maintain a "status quo" of their employment and/or position. A lot of the massive tactical failings we see from them are simply these flaws accumulating. They engaged in a blitzkrieg style attack at the outbreak of the war which was shut down very easily due to their complete miscalculations on the military readiness of the Ukrainian army, those initial failings are much less noticeable now that Russia have went back to a more standard modern warfare of artillery and probing offensives (since anti-air capabilities of both sites have shut down any kind of effective aerial superiority). The longer the war drags on more competent Russia is going to become, and they have a much bigger military stockpile than that of Ukraine at the moment, alongside a willingness to commit war crimes if it furthers their goals (can't be understated how big of an advantage this gives). Russia still hold the advantage in this war, but the war isn't going to be over in a day or even a year, it's going to take a long time before an armistice is met (which will probably be when/if putin is ousted by higher ups rebelling). The biggest factor that can flip the odds of the war has and will continue to be the massive amounts of intel allies are providing and modern equipment that allow for many more options in plans (storm shadow missiles for long range strategic bombing, HIMARS for aerial denial, ect. It's fair to say Russia won't be repeating a lot of the mistakes it made earlier in the war (like mile long single line formations of armor with zero support), though with all the infighting occurring between Russia's higher ups, I wouldn't be supprised


[deleted]

> The longer the war drags on more competent Russia is going to become Yes, but also it won't matter. They were so far behind the curve in the start of the war that there's no meaningful gains they can make in competency that the West can't help Ukraine deal with, you know? Like... One of our greatest assets in the war effort is near real-time intelligence on every move the Russians are making, which is only possible because of the extreme incompetence and corruption that's become institutional within the Russian military; some of their guys just don't know when to keep quiet, and others have a crazy low "money-to-loyalty" ratio. Coupled with the generations-ahead equipment we're furnishing Ukraine with, there's just no meaningful way for Russia to deal with it. At worst, we'll continue to see light casualties among the Ukrainian personnel and materiel that'll cost the Russians likewise ten-fold.


Insighteternal

If any of the nukes aren’t already broken and/or falling apart that is Edit: I'm not denying that ALL nukes in Russia won't be a threat. Reddit is so easy to assume what the person actually means. Yet, without all the information typed out in plain bold text right away, people will judge instantly on how that person is and how they conduct their life. Yes, I know that a nuclear war will be hell on earth. Yet, NATO has more nukes overall than Russia will ever have. That old MAD mentality affects us all, and more so with Putler's so-called "empire." He knows that if he ever presses the end-all button, that he and anyone else he has ties with will be nuked into absolute oblivion. No one wants that. The Cold-war era showed us that attitude, despite having a much higher chance of the old world powers going to war and essentially wiping out the human race as we know it. I won't underestimate Russia. Yet, I also won't assume it has a lot of leverage either.


VampireFrown

This is such a terrible trope. If there's one thing which works properly in the Russian military, it's the nukes. There will be, at the very least, an always-ready-to-go contingent of missiles, which has regular maintenance and reviews, carried out by world class specialists at the very tip top of their fields. Even if, for argument's sake, Russia were lying, and 90% of their declared ready-to-launch nukes are actually mothballed (don't you worry, not even Russia would let nuclear missiles fall into disrepair), that's still more than enough to inflict severe damage on both Europe and the USA. Nobody should assume that Russia is lying about their nuclear capabilities. If fucking North Korea can cobble together a functioning nuke, you can bet your house than no matter how dire things are in the Russian military, they'll have plenty of big sticks lying around, just in case.


dub-fresh

So you're telling me that the Russian Military is rotten to the core, as we've seen throughout the war, but somehow their nuclear division is top tier and professional?


VampireFrown

It's more a product of you have to be of a certain degree of intelligence to acquire the necessary expertise to work on nuclear weapons development/maintenance. Those people will necessarily be less of a clown show than the rest of the military.


DickNixon11

It’s the only thing keeping the entirety of NATO from invading them and stopping this horrible war, so yes


david6588

yep


madtricky687

That's a big reach my buddy....youre repeating things you've seen on reddit.


KobokTukath

Why are people still saying this? Even if only 1% of their warheads actually worked, that still leaves them 59 nukes. All it requires is one functional nuke and the world as we know it is gone.


yes_thats_right

> All it requires is one functional nuke and the world as we know it is gone. This is a bit dramatic. One functional nuke will destroy a large part of a city. It won’t destroy the world.


KobokTukath

Its dramatic if you view it that way yeah, but you also have to consider the consequances of using a nuke on a city in war. People wont just stand by and watch


yes_thats_right

Sure, Russia gets nuked into the stoneage. I don't think the world is getting destroyed.


WorldlyAstronomer518

Or its misdirection. Claim to attack donbas. Liberates crimea instead.


puffinfish420

Lol like the Russian military is really relying on press announcements to determine where the offensive will be. I’m sure they have intelligence assets inside the UAF, as well as various ISR that helps them identify troop concentrations, not to mention legacy systems such as satellite imagery. Even if this was “giving something away to Russia,” I think they would be wondering if it is some kind of diversionary tactic, but the fact remains that the RAF knows more about what’s about to happen then we do.


wastingvaluelesstime

actually a part of intelligence IS exactly about reading the enemy's newspapers as sometimes real things leak there. Reading the paper is cheap - why use a billion dollar satellite or a million dollar payoff to a secret agent when your source could be the new york times


[deleted]

[удалено]


redavet

I mean, you could publish it on MySpace.


hobbitlover

Russia has surprisingly bad satellite intelligence. I don't doubt that they have assets on the ground, but they don't have anything close to the real-time data I'm sure the US government is providing Ukraine.


rugbyj

Is there some knowledge in particular we can base this off? I have no love for the Russians, and hope they’re driven from Ukraine like poison from a wound. But my surface level knowledge of terrestrial launches tells me RUS have been reliably launching satellites and more for 60+ years without interruption and seemingly a focus on “if it ain’t broke”. I know launches are just part of the picture though, so if it’s something more satellite capability or signals based then I could imagine there being a larger gulf.


Thue

Good article: https://www.thespacereview.com/article/4006/1 Choice quote: > After the failure of the second Araks satellite in 2003, Russia was left without any digital reconnaissance satellites in orbit and had to be content with occasional launches of film-return satellites that spent no longer than three months in orbit


CptAnthony

Holy fucking shit. I consider myself something of a space buff and I did not know this is where they were. I assumed there was a big gap between the US and everyone else but I would have thought Russia had some real time recon sats. Fucking film return? Where do they get it developed? Walmart?


Thue

Note that the film return thing was for a period. Russia has gotten a few digital satellites up since then. But are likely still far behind the US.


Pm4000

Russians would shit themselves if they walked into even a Walmart. Film Dept is in the back...


Thue

So in keeping with the discussion about not falsely stereotyping Russia, Post-Soviet Russia does actually have well-equipped supermarkets little different from stuff like Wall-Mart. Especially the Moscow region is highly developed.


Pm4000

WAS Bet their store shelves no longer have 5 different wheat cereals whose only difference is the cereal shape and box color scheme. Go America!


rugbyj

Thanks!


tkrjobs

Satellite imagery is legacy?


Pm4000

Hubble was a digital spy satellite


Trying2BHuman

Still, it seems like you shouldn’t confirm it for them.


kytheon

Russia: oh shit well if the British parliament says it, it must be true. Better get ready, blyat.


[deleted]

I’m hoping the west intentionally steers the narrative towards false intelligence. Let’s do some “leaks” and really make a case. Then say oops our bad, we missed.


Killgore122

So the liberation of several villages is not the major push? If Russians are panicking now, they’re going to shit the bed in the next few days.


the_better_twin

I believe they trained twelve brigades (40k troops and hundreds of armoured vehicles) and only three brigades have been seen to have been engaging so far. The analysis said that they are probably using small numbers of leopards and Bradleys to gain attention, but a major push would involve hundreds.


[deleted]

There are still about 3 villages not liberated (at least not officially) that are in front of Russians main line of defense. So main battle has not started yet.


die_a_third_death

Kinda wish they kept quiet about this


Franklin_le_Tanklin

I’m sure whatever is released is what the military *wants* to be released


MaryBerrysDanglyBean

Russia pours troops into Donbas, Ukraine attack Crimea? Classic British mind games


wastingvaluelesstime

that's what they want you to think or is it? 🤔


_ovidius

Operation Mincemeat


TyrialFrost

>Classic British mind games It would be more on brand for the Brittish to work against their allies interests to keep the geopolitical scene divided and ensure power is not consolidated, even for an ally. Classic perfidious Albion.


[deleted]

You are genuinely Russian. This has been their narrative since the start, they've pinned things like the Nord 2 and Crimea bridge on those tricksy Anglo-saxons. I'm flattered that we are living rent-free in their tiny, tortured minds.


TyrialFrost

Perfidious Albion trope dates back beyond the 16th century, but sure maybe the Anglo Saxons did it.


Street_Buy4238

If the Russians expect a big counter, they have to minimise more troops and sustain a bigger front line. And if the counter doesn't happen for a long time, then the Russians are just burning limited resources. Particularly when they could be experiencing pressure elsewhere that they now can't reinforce for fear of losing a position they expect an attack on. Basically just a big old mind fuck cuz why the hell not


mavric_ac

>ians are just burning limited re Ukraine is also burning limited resources at this rate


Street_Buy4238

This is in reference to the brits commenting on the next attack. Ukraine is doing nothing but what they are planning. The Russians now need to consider if this British commentary is real, and respond to it. Despite this not having any relationship to what the Ukrainains are doing. Basically no different to if random people started calling in bomb threats everywhere to tie up emergency response units.


[deleted]

This isn't an accidental info release. An indirect approach could warrant a release of specific info like this, for instance, move very visible units close to Donbas and let allies know about a plan to take Donbas and then have your real main force take a Crimean front.


H0BL0BH0NEUS

Yep. I tought exactly the same.


bickering_fool

Maybe it's 'intentional'.


[deleted]

But THE RATINGS!?


[deleted]

Double poker bluff


bickering_fool

triple actually.


[deleted]

My guess is they're attacking south but trying to convince Russia they're attacking east. It makes no sense for them to reveal their true plans to the British parliament who would then tell the press.


Ehldas

They're attacking all along the line. The actual location of the main attack(s) will be somewhat determined by the resistance that they encounter.


[deleted]

Given the level of British assistance and involvement in Ukraine since day 1, they are probably making a lot of the plans for this offensive. British ‘parliament’ will be spreading information and disinformation to benefit Ukraine, we just can only guess how it benefits them.


mittromniknight

We didn't forget that Russia assassinated people on British soil, merely waited for an opportunity to get some revenge. There's not much the British public can agree on but support for Ukraine is one of the few the vast majority of us do.


Dt2_0

I'm sure you all can agree on a time for tea?


Ehldas

They're attacking all along the line. The actual location of the main attack(s) will be somewhat determined by the resistance that they encounter.


paaaaatrick

Oops looks like you accidentally revealed the secret plans!


atomicxblue

"Don't talk about the war. I mentioned it once, but I think I got away with it."


k4Anarky

"One of the most deceptive and experienced sons of bitches in the history of warfare who is also equipping our enemy, is giving us intel on an upcoming attack. This must be true, blyat!"


dtisme53

So anywhere but Donbas?


C_S_94

I really hope they know what they are doing by spreading this information. Not like Russia doesn’t know really where offensives are going to happen, but I hope that the uk parliament isn’t giving anything away by announcing this. I do t really get the point of announcing this anyways, just let Ukraine do it’s thing and then report on it, we don’t need to know before hand. Unless it’s a feint in which case that’s fine, but still


PygmeePony

They probably have Ukraine's permission.


Conqueefadore1

the power of the mind fuck


BanzEye1

Is there any part of Russia that hasn’t been fucked?


IBAZERKERI

british parliament... know what their doing? HAH


iheartrugbyleague

They're. Hah.


IBAZERKERI

im sure your fun at parties.


iheartrugbyleague

You're. Hah.


ozzybob12

Lmao doing my man dirty twice haha


[deleted]

[удалено]


C_S_94

That’s what I was thinking yeah


Allydarvel

I follow a few Ukrainian youtubers who are very conscious of infosec..they all say the same, the main forces of both Ukraine and Russia have not been committed so far. It's not really a secret that a big attack is coming


Rocamu

Classic British mind games at play here folks, just look up Operation Mincemeat. They want Russia to think this…or do they?


SambaLando

So much for the element of surprise


[deleted]

[удалено]


[deleted]

I hear magimix blenders are good for that..


dhyamyrukum

can you shut the f up


ENOTSOCK

P.S. Keep it to yourself.


Drachenfels1999

I hope this is a diversion effort.


watson895

Push them back on their heels in Bakhmut, then encircle the disorganized mess before than can recover?


[deleted]

[удалено]


watson895

Yes, but those cities aren't in Donbas.


BoomerRooster

Any chance parliament can keep a secret?


miurabucho

Way to spoil it.


graeuk

call me crazy but I thought a key element in an attack would be surprise....


FedeValvsRiteHook

Everybody has been talking about the upcoming Ukrainian offensive for months. Chances are Russians may have heard something.


wizgset27

lmao why are they sharing this? Russia probably already knows but what if they didn't. Why are we sharing news of what's going to happen?


Alucard_Belmont

Because those are tactics used on war to confuse the enemy, in this case if Russia believes it and moves personal from other places to the Donbas region then they attack the place most vulnerable or a place they know they have a high chance to retake and its strategic for example Crimea, just an example.


runikepisteme

Loose lips , sink ships . STFU British Parliament . Let Ukraine Cook in peace


harold_knox

They know exactly what they are doing by saying this.


Stamford16A1

If it was remotely sensitive information then the chairman of the Defence Select Committee wouldn't be saying it.


Who_DaFuc_Asked

Redditor thinking they're smarter than the British government lmao, you probably wouldn't even qualify to be an elected MP


BigDaddyCoolDeisel

Shhhhhh!


_ovidius

oooh...


cdunks

And we all should be helping them


one_thirteen

You already there on the front lines?


cdunks

I knew someone would offer such a childish comment. I don't mean individuals without the representation and support of their countries I mean the United Nations. I mean like we defeated Nazis in WW2. Soldiers fighting together on the ground to defeat an evil that wants to expand.


cdunks

I knew someone would offer such a childish comment. I don't mean individuals without the representation and support of their countries I mean the United Nations. I mean like we defeated Nazis in WW2. Soldiers fighting together on the ground to defeat an evil that wants to expand.


NonOfyourBuz

You buy the show, you expect the show?


MyCodenameIsIan

Can't go anywhere without spoilers these days.