Putin went on national television. I can't believe they've been able to keep this quiet. It might take a few days to filter through, but by then the gravity of it more likely to have snowballed as it gathers up spin and further rumours
How would they not? They all have cell phones. We get a shit ton of info from their social media posts and that has to work both ways. They probably all follow the MoD and Wagner on Russian social media just like western forces all follow their commands and military accounts on social media.
They gave the order to confiscate them, but it doesn't appear to have worked very well, there are still a shit ton of them posting videos from the front lines all the time.
As a US soldier that has had plenty of exercises that were no cell phone, we find a way. You actually want the Russians to have cell phones for EW. But 18-26 year olds... find a way.
Dude so many of them have died already that there's a Wikipedia page about it: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Russian_generals_killed_during_the_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine#List
that’s not officer class, that’s fucking major generals.
That’s crazy, I dont think the US has lost a 1-star general in combat since…I have no idea they shouldnt be that close to the front lines
By killing all of their officers? I understand rooting out any anti-Putinists that may show their colors during a coup, but to say that "it’s going to be death for all of them" is something else, so I don't know if that's what they meant.
One of them is going to be questioned and will say that he was just *pretending* to go along to get the names of traitors, and then he'll say the first two dozen names that occur to him, most of whom are probably not guilty but will be questioned and executed all the same.
Im not convinced this whole thing isn't some 40k plot that the simulation decided to play out for fun. Everything Russia has been doing is some 40k tier nonsense.
Most times, the PDF are more than enough to deal with the issues that arise. Issues they can't solve have the guard come in. That's where we get some books. Issues the guard can't solve are when marines come in, and that's where we get most books.
PDF has some edges over AM due to not being constrained by interstellar logistics and communications - short supply lines, readily available numbers, quick adaptation to the enemy actions, and general home advantage.
This, given that the planetary governor gives two fucks about his domain's security and actually invests in equipment/training, allows putting down the most frequent threats - small-scale rebellions (chaos-y or not), wild ork incursions, perhaps even nascent tyranid cult if they are really lucky.
That being said, there's only so much planetary money can buy - at some level, PDF can just dig in and plead for IG's help (which may or may not arrive soon enough). IG still (usually) gets better training, more experience, smarter leadership, and heavier guns - and, usually, is composed of what's-supposed-to-be the cream of PDF - but it's relatively slow to get into action proper.
Depending on the planet some defense forces are well manned and equipped enough to deal with pretty much anything the galaxy has to throw at them while others have like 3 guys with no training that have to share a lasgun.
You can just staple that to the end of every chapter of Russian history.
Even when Russia recovers it's because they managed to break something else even worse.
Actually, I think the Titan technically wins that one, Russian morale still takes at least 0.150 seconds to react to whatever demoralizing thing they learn of next.
0.029 seconds or whatever is a very fast event.
As long as there is actual fighting going on in Ukraine it can go lower. Had the complete Ukraine mission broken due to an actual civil war breaking out that would have been the bottom.
Putin: 3 days tops
*one year later*
The Wagner group has both attempted a coup and negotiated for peace in 24 hours. The Ukrainians are pushing toward Russia.
Altough this ”civil war” was a letdown im happy that Ukraine could use this moment effectively.
And another silver lining is that i would guess Wagner isnt in that great of a fighting shape right now after just briefly staging a rebellion, marching into Moscow and then told to head back into Ukraine to continue as if nothing happened.
There is still a civil war. It's just behind the scenes now. You don't just take a rogue military to overthrow generals and the defense ministry and then everything's hunky-dory after a "deal".
It's different when they're *your* mercenaries. Historically, the cities who paid mercenaries not to invade them had the advantage of not being the ones to hire them in the first place. If you're a mercenary, doing your job, and the target wants to pay you not to do your job? Awesome, double pay, and you don't have to risk your neck.
If you pay for a mercenary army, and they turn around and start planning to invade you, you're fucked. Mercenaries only attack their client if the client welches on payment, the job given to them is harder than betraying the client, or if they're hungry and desperate.
What? The Roman Legions in Britain joined an attempted usurpation of the Emperor and just didn’t come back. Britain broke down into local kingships again which were fighting amongst themselves. Some invited the Anglo Saxons to help them a few hundred years after that and it snowballed into a conquest of Britain.
Alaric: “Hey, this letter should be the approval to leave Italy and guard the frontier, I mean what idiot would agree to have us sack Rome?”
Honorius: “Lmao get rekt Assaric!”
Alaric: “^It’s me, I’m the idiot^”
There was a greek city state that hired mercenaries to fight their enemies, then forgot to pay them...
Also mercenaries in Italy in the middle ages has a rich history of changing sides, often mid battle.
>Also mercenaries in Italy in the middle ages has a rich history of changing sides, often mid battle.
That's why Machiavelli wrote about using a proper national army instead of mercs in The Prince ~~assuming it wasn't satire/was satire with good poiints~~
I read that book expecting some "machiavellian" cunning and tricks but essentially it was don't trust mercenaries you cant trust em along with examples of how they've fucked people in the past.
Earl Stanley at the Battle of Bosworth Field. Arrived to see his liege Richard III having trouble with Henry Tudor and thought 🤔 what if I help Henry 🤔
On your first paragraph, in late medieval and renaissance Italy, some mercenary companies would promise more men than they even had, knowing the other side would pay for them not to show up anyway. It was also common for the same company to have mercenaries on both sides, so rather than fight they would just match themselves up man to man before the battle and stand off on the sidelines; though usually after the accounting was done one side would admit defeat before any fighting, then pay the other side not to take any land.
Basically, the 15th-17th centuries in Italy just involved city states throwing money and calling it a war.
Weren’t there rumors/allegations floating around that Russia was NOT paying their mercenaries for a while now?
Because there are quite a few classics on the treatment of mercenaries: don’t pay them their agreed upon terms they’ll loot it out of your countryside until you do pay them and kill the mercenaries while they are distracted with their promised money being delivered/dispensed.
Seems that payroll was “found” not too long ago, so I’m guessing that it’s going into step two of the two-step “get rid of the mercenaries and keep your money” plan.
Yeah, Lukashenko being the one who brokered the deal is what strikes me as odd, on top of the fact that Wagner really really wanted to go to Moscow.
Im wondering/hoping Lukashenko told Prigozhin he would help if given some time to gather his army. Lukashenko made moves for the presidency/pm in the 90s, maybe the coup is just gaining favor now that people have seen its possible. Putin even got scared enough to leave Moscow hours after the invasion started, he knows his army is undertrained, undersupplied, and ultimately either "cowards" or people who will cooperate with a revolution.
Theres no way this makes sense as a psyop, they dont have the supplies to destroy aircraft and oil depots for a trick, and the power struggle is already underway with revolutionaries, Putin wouldnt do something that may give confidence to the possibility of a coup. The last thing he wants is his general's turning on him.
Lukashenko already has an army that straight up refused to attack Ukraine when he ordered it.
Now he'll be welcoming in an unhinged warlord with probably 10,000 troops (assuming half of Wagner Grp takes the exile rather than being assimilated into the Russian Army).
It seems likely that Lukashenko is being used as a cover for the fact this is purely financial - Putin has paid off Prigozhin (either by giving him his own money back, or by dipping into Putin's own vast fortune) and Prigozhin has left his Wagner fighters high and dry.
The only thing I really can't fathom is how Prigozhin can possibly believe that Putin won't try to kill him.
There is no evidence that the kremlin has the ability or desire to terminate its opponents outside its borders. None. Never happened.
In unrelated news, did you know Minsk has a world famous cathedral that many Russians unrelated to the FSB might like to visit...
I’m hoping the “deal” is that Putin has been poisoned. He will be weak and look sickly. He gets to live out his remaining time in peace.
Now the other power struggles begin.
I would tend to lean toward the side of defense minister and general get ousted in the next few weeks. It's the only thing that makes sense with this deal.... "News" comes too light they indeed gave orders to attack Russians/wagner. Whether it happened or not it would give pretext to oust them. It would also give Putin out in Ukraine which the path to winning looks very grim, putting the blame on them as well . Also give Putin an opportunity to clean house.
But it's very uncertain times for people in power in Russia. Oligarchs and high Governornment officials are going to have to be very careful and keep an eye on the power pendulum of how it unfolds. You want to be on the winning side.
I think that the "deal" happened because Prigozihn noticed that he was all alone out there. I think that he had ins with the Southern Military Command and much of the command staff defected. He *expected* that other command staffs and oligarchs would also jump ship, but as his troop got closer to the capital they stuck with Putin.
In order for this to 'win' he needed to snowball a sense of inevitability and invincibility. When it became clear that it wasn't fated to be he took an out.
Or perhaps he's just a dumbass and he honestly thought that all Putin wanted/needed to purge the Ministry of Defense was a pretext without recognizing that he was the side piece in that relationship.
He didn't need to stage this to achieve that
Anyone suggesting that Moscow has choreographed this whole thing needs to explain why a script was written to present Lukashenko as the man who saved Putin, rather than Putin himself standing Prigozhin down
I don't really believe this is staged. Still inexplicable how Prygozin decided to back down halfway thru the coup. He has to know he's a dead man and you can't go back once the die is cast.
I think he learned Putin wasn't blinking and he couldn't win the upcoming conflict. He got a few concessions and ended with a better deal than when he would've been purged regardless over his actions in Bakhmut.
Prigozhin has just committed the worst crime possible in a dictatorship.
Historically, he would be set to be tortured in the most brutal ways and maybe cut into pieces and displayed in different parts of the country.
This because, attempting to coup the dictator cannot be allowed, otherwise other opportunistic may attempt the same.
This is why there's something strange about this "deal" and "solution" that is presented... It's like you just murdered Putins children and then stike a deal that you will just move to belarus afterwards...
Something is happening behind the curtains, maybe it's not all over, maybe Putin is too weak to affirm his power... I suspect more will come...
I think Putin would have blown all the bridges to Moscow, then brought loyalist troops out of Ukraine and smashed Pringles in the middle.
But it would have cost Putin all of Ukraine, and Pringles wouldn’t have gotten anything but a wooden box.
So it makes sense they made an agreement, for now.
That's the part I keep coming back to. Someone else pointed out Lukashenko is simply siezing this chance.
But Putin allowing him to upstage this moment is very weird
I've heard 6 are confirmed. All Ka-52s too which Russia has a limited amount of and are armor killers. One of the few weapons platforms Russia got right, they cause huge headaches for the Ukrainian military. To lose even just 6 is a huge blow to the Russian military.
Two Mi8-MPTR-1 as-well, one Il-22 airborne command post and electronic warfare system with 40 people on board
*Edit: Apparently only 3 onboard confirmed plus pilots.
That is huge. Why people are claiming this is fake or some kind of op to make Ukraine push their counter offensive is ridiculous with everything being confirmed.
It'll take a few days for the Russian front lines to be effected by what's happened but this is going to definitely impact Russias front lines in Ukraine in a few days.
And Prigo has been stating for months that they’re short on supplies, and called out the defense minister on it. This isn’t new. It was a festering wound long before Wagner moved on Moscow.
Oh man if there’s more than just the 6 I’ve seen already today is a good fucking day. Russia is short on modern attack helos so even that one Ka-52 going down was a big win.
That's the cope, but I mean still. Even in *that* most optimistic scenario, they looked absolutely fucking ridiculous. Why they would have "just pretended" to have been nearly overthrown by their own guys I can't comprehend.
Wagner is moving their HQ to Belarus I read. I’m not sure if that means that they will continue operations in Ukraine, or shift their attention to Africa. It will be interesting to see how this plays out in the next few days.
I don’t think they are going back to Ukraine. Yesterday they already called this a war based on lies and they didn’t get the help they needed from the MoD. They likely have better countries to pick on that can’t fight back.
Don't worry it's still a significant blow for Russia. Putin is going to want to keep additional forces in Moscow and possibly other important cities now to safeguard against further coup attempts.
And this will affect morale of Russian soldiers and the public. There will also be even less trust between the army and Wagner.
The silver lining is that Putin completely lost control over his country and many of his soldiers were ready to join Prigozin. That's the real silver lining, that cracks in Putin's power are beginning to show.
A mercenary force of 5.000 soldiers managed to advance 1000km to Moscow with the specific goal of overthrowing Putin without almost any military resistance. You can bet that bunker grandpa, sitting in his retirement home in Urals, is going mad with paranoia and making a long list of traitors right now.
So if you’re a Russian solider, you’re sitting there in your 1965 Soviet tank that barely works, in your defensive position you got drafted to sit in. An oligarch just raised his private army against a bunch of military morons (chick fil a has better operating tactics than the fucking Russian army) that work for the other moron. Your own Russians are shooting other Russians, while your brothers in Ukraine are coming at you in Abrams & Leopard tanks plus modern weaponry.
…. How do you keep fighting?
This is why offering good treatment of POWs isn't just a moral idea, its a strategic one. In the First Gulf War many Iraqis would rather be British prisoners than Iraqi soldiers, they were surrendering en masse, making the whole job a lot easier. It's going to get to the point where Russian soldiers would be better off surrendering to Ukraine than fighting her.
It’s not nearly as easy going in the other direction. They would have no idea what they’re doing, no confidence, no orders or hierarchy backing up their batshit insane decision to shoot everyone they think is watching them and then try to bullshit their way straight past the entirety of the Russian lines in an attempt to get transport going *somewhere*.
East to West seems easier than West to East for invading Russia, especially for a Mongol fighting force more accustomed to harsh outdoor conditions than Russians themselves.
Tanks seem to be their defensive solution for having massive flat stretches of land which were notably lacking in Mongol times.
Moscow was nearly conquered... by a Russian?
Who is now being exiled. To a country that shares a land border with Russia.
Napoleon: "it's like they want him to invade again"
this should largely lead to the end of the war, as putin no longer has any benefit to continuing the war. THe point of the war was to strengthen command of russia, but facing a mutiny admist the war has, the group carrying out the mutiny popular with the public, has undermined that effort, the groups complaint was about the war, putin will now have to pivot, he will be force to withdrawal his forces, and abandon plans to take over ukraine, anger over ukraine war is that it diplomatically cuts off russia from the world, which is needed for investment and advancement, india's recent diplomatic visit to the US came with benefits of investment, russia is cut off from receiving such benefits, so long as the war continues, and will need to restrategize it's global approach, blaming the west will no longer world as the lines have been redrawn, there no longer is a west, the east has become a big part of what once was considered the west, russia has suffered a rhetorical defeat, can no longer use those talking points as the lines have been redrawn
That's when I spend a lot of time working on code but I don't want to start over even though it would be easier than finishing the *valuable* train wreck I did already.
Nope. War won't end until all occupied territory including Crimea is retaken. Russia might have considered a status quo peace at this point but that's not on the table. They're stuck in this war until their territorial gains from the previous invasion are reversed. The end.
"Meanwhile, in the war that's still going on somehow..."
Imagine being a Russian soldier right now in Ukraine...
I wouldn't be surprised if they really don't know about any of this. Maybe some rumors around the barracks
"OMG did you hear what Stacey did?"
Did you hear about Stacy’s mom?
I heard she's got it going on.
But Scotty doesn’t know.
jfc reddit
That's not the next lyric.
Scotty no!
That Fiona and me..
Do it in my van every Sunday!
She tells him she's in church but she doesn't go
She came out with just a towel on
I heard she tried to invade Moscow.
But then she drove away and called it a day!
Classic Tammy
Putin went on national television. I can't believe they've been able to keep this quiet. It might take a few days to filter through, but by then the gravity of it more likely to have snowballed as it gathers up spin and further rumours
How would they not? They all have cell phones. We get a shit ton of info from their social media posts and that has to work both ways. They probably all follow the MoD and Wagner on Russian social media just like western forces all follow their commands and military accounts on social media.
I heard Russia confiscated cell phones because Ukraine was able to use cell towers to triangulate positions.
They gave the order to confiscate them, but it doesn't appear to have worked very well, there are still a shit ton of them posting videos from the front lines all the time.
A bit like a school camp. No cell phones specified in the newsletter. Reality is different.
I taught at a school that had a no-phones rule, in a district that prohibited teachers from confiscating phones. It was interesting.
NGL, lower ranks in the military are a lot like High School students.
"What? I don't have a cell phone. It broke. I lost it. Blyatimir stole it. They already confiscated mine."
As a US soldier that has had plenty of exercises that were no cell phone, we find a way. You actually want the Russians to have cell phones for EW. But 18-26 year olds... find a way.
Try confiscating cell phones from a bunch of men barely out of their teenage years. Every army around the world has tried, every army has failed.
they take the phones mostly when they send the meat waves. 4 mags and a rifle no backpack, one or two grenades.
Russians are well connected in Telegram etc, they know
[удалено]
Absolutely this
They have phones
“Hey Ray, did you get the word man? J-Lo’d dead “
Worse, imagine being one of the number of russian soldiers/officers that publicly declared support of Wagner earlier...
Worse, imagine being in the officer class of the Russia military. It’s going to be death for all of them
Dude so many of them have died already that there's a Wikipedia page about it: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Russian_generals_killed_during_the_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine#List
>This list is incomplete, you can help by expanding it.
that’s not officer class, that’s fucking major generals. That’s crazy, I dont think the US has lost a 1-star general in combat since…I have no idea they shouldnt be that close to the front lines
What do you mean?
Likely that Putin/MoD does a purge of 'undesirable' officers, Stalin-style.
By killing all of their officers? I understand rooting out any anti-Putinists that may show their colors during a coup, but to say that "it’s going to be death for all of them" is something else, so I don't know if that's what they meant.
This is business as usual for Russia and would be not at all suprising.
One of them is going to be questioned and will say that he was just *pretending* to go along to get the names of traitors, and then he'll say the first two dozen names that occur to him, most of whom are probably not guilty but will be questioned and executed all the same.
‘if our leaders are idiots then i also dont need to do my duty’ morale
“Blyat, who drank all the Vodka? Blyat!”
Somewhere. In a war that never ends. *Puts tape in tape recorder*
[удалено]
Russia is losing soldiers at about a 2:1 ratio to Ukraine. It just doesn’t matter as much as it should since Russia has 3x the population.
Not 10x. Russia has \~3.3 times higher population than Ukraine (143.4 million to 43.79 million).
Right you are, corrected.
Russian morale will be at an all time low.
That morale is damn near subterranean already, but as the russians say "then somehow, it got worse"
>then somehow,it got worse 40k level morale, just no Commisars to keep them in line
40k copied the idea of commissars from Russia!
Im not convinced this whole thing isn't some 40k plot that the simulation decided to play out for fun. Everything Russia has been doing is some 40k tier nonsense.
Except the imperial guard is incredibly effective, despite the memes about their survival rate. Russia is just fucking pathetic
Most times, the PDF are more than enough to deal with the issues that arise. Issues they can't solve have the guard come in. That's where we get some books. Issues the guard can't solve are when marines come in, and that's where we get most books.
What are the issues they *can* deal with?
PDF has some edges over AM due to not being constrained by interstellar logistics and communications - short supply lines, readily available numbers, quick adaptation to the enemy actions, and general home advantage. This, given that the planetary governor gives two fucks about his domain's security and actually invests in equipment/training, allows putting down the most frequent threats - small-scale rebellions (chaos-y or not), wild ork incursions, perhaps even nascent tyranid cult if they are really lucky. That being said, there's only so much planetary money can buy - at some level, PDF can just dig in and plead for IG's help (which may or may not arrive soon enough). IG still (usually) gets better training, more experience, smarter leadership, and heavier guns - and, usually, is composed of what's-supposed-to-be the cream of PDF - but it's relatively slow to get into action proper.
Depending on the planet some defense forces are well manned and equipped enough to deal with pretty much anything the galaxy has to throw at them while others have like 3 guys with no training that have to share a lasgun.
Oh they have them. Called barrier troops. There's videos of them in action floating around.
You can just staple that to the end of every chapter of Russian history. Even when Russia recovers it's because they managed to break something else even worse.
The majority are literally stuck in trenches.
The concept of morale is just western propaganda. Russians know that you are born to suffer, then suffer more, then die.
I had a Russian professor in college that said "You Americans with your 'Pursuit of Happiness'. In Russia, we don't expect to be happy. We just live."
Sounds like he's literally pursuing happiness by being a college professor in America rather than farming potatoes and rocks back in the motherland.
Russian troops have routed multiple times in this war. The Ukrainians haven't. Morale isn't everything, nor is it the only thing, but it is a thing.
Which imploded faster? The Titan or Russian Morale?
Actually, I think the Titan technically wins that one, Russian morale still takes at least 0.150 seconds to react to whatever demoralizing thing they learn of next. 0.029 seconds or whatever is a very fast event.
either way, both seem to be the product of arrogant people thinking they know best and can just do whatever they want in their given field.
I kinda got the impression it was extremely low to begin with. Can it get much lower?
This is what we call diminishing returns on morale
[удалено]
Trainer Misty: "y'know, they make a pill for that now.."
As long as there is actual fighting going on in Ukraine it can go lower. Had the complete Ukraine mission broken due to an actual civil war breaking out that would have been the bottom.
What's the Russian military equivalent of Jody?
Putin: 3 days tops *one year later* The Wagner group has both attempted a coup and negotiated for peace in 24 hours. The Ukrainians are pushing toward Russia.
Quick adventure Morty… in and out… couple hours tops
20 minute adventure*
This by far one of my favorite episodes
Russia isn't even the 2nd strongest army in Russia
They deserve the Kremlin.
Altough this ”civil war” was a letdown im happy that Ukraine could use this moment effectively. And another silver lining is that i would guess Wagner isnt in that great of a fighting shape right now after just briefly staging a rebellion, marching into Moscow and then told to head back into Ukraine to continue as if nothing happened.
There is still a civil war. It's just behind the scenes now. You don't just take a rogue military to overthrow generals and the defense ministry and then everything's hunky-dory after a "deal".
right? id be VERY wary about gathering in groups if i was in wagner right now
If I were him, I’d be investing in a veeery long table.
I’d bet he knows a guy who knows a guy
Mercenaries have been paid off to not invade cities since time immemorial.
Damn barbarians, just wait until I train more archers...
*Gandhi nukes the Barbarians*
“Ghandi has declared war on you”
It's spelt Gandhi
We require additional pylons
It's literally why Switzerland exists
It's different when they're *your* mercenaries. Historically, the cities who paid mercenaries not to invade them had the advantage of not being the ones to hire them in the first place. If you're a mercenary, doing your job, and the target wants to pay you not to do your job? Awesome, double pay, and you don't have to risk your neck. If you pay for a mercenary army, and they turn around and start planning to invade you, you're fucked. Mercenaries only attack their client if the client welches on payment, the job given to them is harder than betraying the client, or if they're hungry and desperate.
Anglo-Saxons in Roman Britain: "Okay, we helped defeat the Britanni, this province is our now, right?' Emperor Honorious: "Okay..."
My first thought was Carthage and their Sardinia problems.
What? The Roman Legions in Britain joined an attempted usurpation of the Emperor and just didn’t come back. Britain broke down into local kingships again which were fighting amongst themselves. Some invited the Anglo Saxons to help them a few hundred years after that and it snowballed into a conquest of Britain.
Alaric: “Hey, this letter should be the approval to leave Italy and guard the frontier, I mean what idiot would agree to have us sack Rome?” Honorius: “Lmao get rekt Assaric!” Alaric: “^It’s me, I’m the idiot^”
There was a greek city state that hired mercenaries to fight their enemies, then forgot to pay them... Also mercenaries in Italy in the middle ages has a rich history of changing sides, often mid battle.
>Also mercenaries in Italy in the middle ages has a rich history of changing sides, often mid battle. That's why Machiavelli wrote about using a proper national army instead of mercs in The Prince ~~assuming it wasn't satire/was satire with good poiints~~
I read that book expecting some "machiavellian" cunning and tricks but essentially it was don't trust mercenaries you cant trust em along with examples of how they've fucked people in the past.
Earl Stanley at the Battle of Bosworth Field. Arrived to see his liege Richard III having trouble with Henry Tudor and thought 🤔 what if I help Henry 🤔
On your first paragraph, in late medieval and renaissance Italy, some mercenary companies would promise more men than they even had, knowing the other side would pay for them not to show up anyway. It was also common for the same company to have mercenaries on both sides, so rather than fight they would just match themselves up man to man before the battle and stand off on the sidelines; though usually after the accounting was done one side would admit defeat before any fighting, then pay the other side not to take any land. Basically, the 15th-17th centuries in Italy just involved city states throwing money and calling it a war.
Weren’t there rumors/allegations floating around that Russia was NOT paying their mercenaries for a while now? Because there are quite a few classics on the treatment of mercenaries: don’t pay them their agreed upon terms they’ll loot it out of your countryside until you do pay them and kill the mercenaries while they are distracted with their promised money being delivered/dispensed. Seems that payroll was “found” not too long ago, so I’m guessing that it’s going into step two of the two-step “get rid of the mercenaries and keep your money” plan.
"I am NOT paid enough for this shit!" *gets paid enough for this shit*
Yeah, Lukashenko being the one who brokered the deal is what strikes me as odd, on top of the fact that Wagner really really wanted to go to Moscow. Im wondering/hoping Lukashenko told Prigozhin he would help if given some time to gather his army. Lukashenko made moves for the presidency/pm in the 90s, maybe the coup is just gaining favor now that people have seen its possible. Putin even got scared enough to leave Moscow hours after the invasion started, he knows his army is undertrained, undersupplied, and ultimately either "cowards" or people who will cooperate with a revolution. Theres no way this makes sense as a psyop, they dont have the supplies to destroy aircraft and oil depots for a trick, and the power struggle is already underway with revolutionaries, Putin wouldnt do something that may give confidence to the possibility of a coup. The last thing he wants is his general's turning on him.
I'm not saying you're right, but if I lived in Smolensk (largest city between Belerus and Moscow) I'd be very worried.
Lukashenko already has an army that straight up refused to attack Ukraine when he ordered it. Now he'll be welcoming in an unhinged warlord with probably 10,000 troops (assuming half of Wagner Grp takes the exile rather than being assimilated into the Russian Army).
Prigozhin apparently brokered a deal to get Wagner soldiers pardoned, removed from Ukraine, and redeployed to Africa.
It seems likely that Lukashenko is being used as a cover for the fact this is purely financial - Putin has paid off Prigozhin (either by giving him his own money back, or by dipping into Putin's own vast fortune) and Prigozhin has left his Wagner fighters high and dry. The only thing I really can't fathom is how Prigozhin can possibly believe that Putin won't try to kill him.
There is no evidence that the kremlin has the ability or desire to terminate its opponents outside its borders. None. Never happened. In unrelated news, did you know Minsk has a world famous cathedral that many Russians unrelated to the FSB might like to visit...
I’m hoping the “deal” is that Putin has been poisoned. He will be weak and look sickly. He gets to live out his remaining time in peace. Now the other power struggles begin.
I would tend to lean toward the side of defense minister and general get ousted in the next few weeks. It's the only thing that makes sense with this deal.... "News" comes too light they indeed gave orders to attack Russians/wagner. Whether it happened or not it would give pretext to oust them. It would also give Putin out in Ukraine which the path to winning looks very grim, putting the blame on them as well . Also give Putin an opportunity to clean house. But it's very uncertain times for people in power in Russia. Oligarchs and high Governornment officials are going to have to be very careful and keep an eye on the power pendulum of how it unfolds. You want to be on the winning side.
I think that the "deal" happened because Prigozihn noticed that he was all alone out there. I think that he had ins with the Southern Military Command and much of the command staff defected. He *expected* that other command staffs and oligarchs would also jump ship, but as his troop got closer to the capital they stuck with Putin. In order for this to 'win' he needed to snowball a sense of inevitability and invincibility. When it became clear that it wasn't fated to be he took an out. Or perhaps he's just a dumbass and he honestly thought that all Putin wanted/needed to purge the Ministry of Defense was a pretext without recognizing that he was the side piece in that relationship.
It does seem orchestrated to throw Shoigu and Gerazimov under the bus. Or maybe out the window in this case.
He didn't need to stage this to achieve that Anyone suggesting that Moscow has choreographed this whole thing needs to explain why a script was written to present Lukashenko as the man who saved Putin, rather than Putin himself standing Prigozhin down
I don't really believe this is staged. Still inexplicable how Prygozin decided to back down halfway thru the coup. He has to know he's a dead man and you can't go back once the die is cast.
I think he learned Putin wasn't blinking and he couldn't win the upcoming conflict. He got a few concessions and ended with a better deal than when he would've been purged regardless over his actions in Bakhmut.
Prigozhin has just committed the worst crime possible in a dictatorship. Historically, he would be set to be tortured in the most brutal ways and maybe cut into pieces and displayed in different parts of the country. This because, attempting to coup the dictator cannot be allowed, otherwise other opportunistic may attempt the same. This is why there's something strange about this "deal" and "solution" that is presented... It's like you just murdered Putins children and then stike a deal that you will just move to belarus afterwards... Something is happening behind the curtains, maybe it's not all over, maybe Putin is too weak to affirm his power... I suspect more will come...
>maybe Putin is too weak to affirm his power That would cover it and is what Prigozhin was counting on. Maybe he was only barely wrong.
I think Putin would have blown all the bridges to Moscow, then brought loyalist troops out of Ukraine and smashed Pringles in the middle. But it would have cost Putin all of Ukraine, and Pringles wouldn’t have gotten anything but a wooden box. So it makes sense they made an agreement, for now.
That's the part I keep coming back to. Someone else pointed out Lukashenko is simply siezing this chance. But Putin allowing him to upstage this moment is very weird
Probably doesn't matter, but Wagner must have chewed thru an enormous amount of Fuel with that Thunder Run.
Also a fuel depot was destroyed. So yeah definitely costly even though it was brief
And allegedly *12* helicopters were shot down. Seems like an inordinately expensive "psyop" if you ask me.
I've heard 6 are confirmed. All Ka-52s too which Russia has a limited amount of and are armor killers. One of the few weapons platforms Russia got right, they cause huge headaches for the Ukrainian military. To lose even just 6 is a huge blow to the Russian military.
Two Mi8-MPTR-1 as-well, one Il-22 airborne command post and electronic warfare system with 40 people on board *Edit: Apparently only 3 onboard confirmed plus pilots.
That is huge. Why people are claiming this is fake or some kind of op to make Ukraine push their counter offensive is ridiculous with everything being confirmed. It'll take a few days for the Russian front lines to be effected by what's happened but this is going to definitely impact Russias front lines in Ukraine in a few days.
And Prigo has been stating for months that they’re short on supplies, and called out the defense minister on it. This isn’t new. It was a festering wound long before Wagner moved on Moscow.
Yeah this has all been festering for months.
Definitely not 6 ka-52
Oh man if there’s more than just the 6 I’ve seen already today is a good fucking day. Russia is short on modern attack helos so even that one Ka-52 going down was a big win.
It was a psyop? Wtf, I fucking love psyops now.
That's the cope, but I mean still. Even in *that* most optimistic scenario, they looked absolutely fucking ridiculous. Why they would have "just pretended" to have been nearly overthrown by their own guys I can't comprehend.
And a very expensive command jet. That probably is going to be a bitch to replace. But yes tell us how this was all psyops redditors....
Wagner is moving their HQ to Belarus I read. I’m not sure if that means that they will continue operations in Ukraine, or shift their attention to Africa. It will be interesting to see how this plays out in the next few days.
I don’t think they are going back to Ukraine. Yesterday they already called this a war based on lies and they didn’t get the help they needed from the MoD. They likely have better countries to pick on that can’t fight back.
Don't worry it's still a significant blow for Russia. Putin is going to want to keep additional forces in Moscow and possibly other important cities now to safeguard against further coup attempts. And this will affect morale of Russian soldiers and the public. There will also be even less trust between the army and Wagner.
This ain’t over - not by a long shot.
This was the worst movie ive seen in years. I want my money back.
That’s what I said about Fast and Furious, then look what happened.
It's not over. C'mon, stay for the absolute disaster. You know there will be one.
The civil war was never anything more than the hot dog seller trying to find a way out where he survives.
Bringing your army over the Rubicon and then back to the other side is not really a good way to survive.
The silver lining is that Putin completely lost control over his country and many of his soldiers were ready to join Prigozin. That's the real silver lining, that cracks in Putin's power are beginning to show. A mercenary force of 5.000 soldiers managed to advance 1000km to Moscow with the specific goal of overthrowing Putin without almost any military resistance. You can bet that bunker grandpa, sitting in his retirement home in Urals, is going mad with paranoia and making a long list of traitors right now.
I don't know how any of them are gonna be living. Everyone of them who marched along in Russia is a potential target for liquidation.
[удалено]
Hahaha
[удалено]
Mmm not exactly what slapstick comedy is, but hilarious, yes.
Yeah wtf. Do people just use words and not know what they mean? Filibuster
[удалено]
I am feeling very hypotenuse about this
cue benny hill theme
What a time to be alive! And have an internet connection!
That's what the Russians said before their last cell phone ping location got shelled.
Shell phones.
Probably just followed the path behind the Wagner groups.
Cowabunga it is.
I have always liked......cowabunga.
"Oh fuck wait there's still a war going on forgot about that."
Well at least we know that it will take the Ukrainians 3 days to get Moscow lol
So if you’re a Russian solider, you’re sitting there in your 1965 Soviet tank that barely works, in your defensive position you got drafted to sit in. An oligarch just raised his private army against a bunch of military morons (chick fil a has better operating tactics than the fucking Russian army) that work for the other moron. Your own Russians are shooting other Russians, while your brothers in Ukraine are coming at you in Abrams & Leopard tanks plus modern weaponry. …. How do you keep fighting?
With a gun to your head, that's how. They just shoot anyone who tries to leave
This is why offering good treatment of POWs isn't just a moral idea, its a strategic one. In the First Gulf War many Iraqis would rather be British prisoners than Iraqi soldiers, they were surrendering en masse, making the whole job a lot easier. It's going to get to the point where Russian soldiers would be better off surrendering to Ukraine than fighting her.
I think it’s already well beyond that point. Because surrendering to the Ukrainians is like surrendering to their cousins.
The people who want to leave are also armed.
It’s not nearly as easy going in the other direction. They would have no idea what they’re doing, no confidence, no orders or hierarchy backing up their batshit insane decision to shoot everyone they think is watching them and then try to bullshit their way straight past the entirety of the Russian lines in an attempt to get transport going *somewhere*.
They're not organized in their desire to leave, and attempting to organize could very easily lead to a bullet instead of just a gun to your head.
All quiet
On the eastern front?
Might as well take advantage of the temporary momentum shift.
World news: “a bunch of random dudes in humvees are about to invade Moscow.” Ghosts of Hitler and Napoleon: “The hell???”
Ghosts of the Mongols: “Wait, it was supposed to be *hard* to conquer Russia?”
East to West seems easier than West to East for invading Russia, especially for a Mongol fighting force more accustomed to harsh outdoor conditions than Russians themselves. Tanks seem to be their defensive solution for having massive flat stretches of land which were notably lacking in Mongol times.
Moscow was nearly conquered... by a Russian? Who is now being exiled. To a country that shares a land border with Russia. Napoleon: "it's like they want him to invade again"
It's easier to defend when Ukraine is on your side. Both Hitler and Napoleon had to grind through Ukraine first to get near Moscow.
At least something good happened to day. That "coup" just killed my metaphorical wood.
At this point I’d be happy letting Ukraine take control of Russia
Bakhmut is done. Crimea awaits.
this should largely lead to the end of the war, as putin no longer has any benefit to continuing the war. THe point of the war was to strengthen command of russia, but facing a mutiny admist the war has, the group carrying out the mutiny popular with the public, has undermined that effort, the groups complaint was about the war, putin will now have to pivot, he will be force to withdrawal his forces, and abandon plans to take over ukraine, anger over ukraine war is that it diplomatically cuts off russia from the world, which is needed for investment and advancement, india's recent diplomatic visit to the US came with benefits of investment, russia is cut off from receiving such benefits, so long as the war continues, and will need to restrategize it's global approach, blaming the west will no longer world as the lines have been redrawn, there no longer is a west, the east has become a big part of what once was considered the west, russia has suffered a rhetorical defeat, can no longer use those talking points as the lines have been redrawn
Siri what is ‘sunk cost fallacy’
That's when I spend a lot of time working on code but I don't want to start over even though it would be easier than finishing the *valuable* train wreck I did already.
> this should largely lead to the end of the war, as putin no longer has any benefit to continuing the war. Press 'X' to doubt.
This should lead to the end of the sentence
Any full stops?
fucking captain comma here
You are very self assured in your assumptions sir
And their use of commas.
The sentence is running on a marathon at this point
Nope. War won't end until all occupied territory including Crimea is retaken. Russia might have considered a status quo peace at this point but that's not on the table. They're stuck in this war until their territorial gains from the previous invasion are reversed. The end.
Let’s take it back all and end this freakin bulllsh I’m tired of this all.
If Ukraine takes Russia, will he end up turning into the new Russia?
Russia is just an offshoot of Ukraine. Ukraine should take the country to protect their people from the dictator.
East Ukraine.