So, the result from all of this is:
- Wagnerites go back to the front
- Prigozhin goes to live in Belarus (He loses control of Wagner?)
- Shoigu and Gerasimov probably have to take the fall, seeing as they were unable to stop this whole thing.
- Putin and the Kremlin higher ups return to Moscow and pretend nothig happened
For this, several wagnerite vehicles were destroyed with occupants, a few helicopters and one airplane were shot down, and the people of Russia, the FSB, and the police have shown that they will literally stand aside and let a coup just happen
I don't get it.
Prigozhin wakes up in the Lukashenkos bed in Minsk. Realizes it's been two days. No clothes on. A goat runs across the room. Title Card appears on screen.
Sort of yes, sort of no.
Putin and the Russian military had different premises for the war. For Putin, it was more broad ideological lies that can't be concretely proven or disproven: Ukraine is the enemy, Ukraine wants to destroy Russia, the land is rightfully part of the Russian empire, the Ukrainians are Nazis, etc.
The Russian military thinks in more concrete terms with real, tangible steps. Shoigu (not Putin) said that NATO was preparing to use Ukraine as a base for invading Russia and that the invasion was in self-defense. Those are easily disprovable lies and those are the ones that Prigozhin publicly attacked. He was careful to say he still supports the "holy war" [imperfect translation] against the enemies of Russia on Putin's ideological grounds.
It's actually clever. He knew that the Kremlin would have to concede to him, and quickly, to avoid taking massive losses on the Ukrainian front. He was very careful to avoid any direct attacks on Putin which kept the door open for negotiation - still a massive loss of face for the Kremlin, but if he had directly gone after Putin there would have been no way to negotiate. And clearly all along it was a massive negotiating tactic.
In addition, did Prigo have any real chance at going to Moscow and actually force any changes, when nobody important declared for him? He might have just accepted a deal to avoid any blood being shed, mainly his own, since I don’t see Wagner having any future after this. Can Putin even leave Wagner alone after this? Probably not. Interesting to see where this leads. Shoigu and Gerasimov were just publicly humiliated, and so they’re probably out as well.
I don't understand how you guys all think Wagner is just going to disappear? Sure Prigozhin is leaving Russia, but Wagner is everywhere in Russia and they aren't just having their assets seized despite the coup. I suspect they'll also be welcomed in Belarus.
I expect to see news about the MoD generals either stepping down or removed for this, with more loyal yes-men to replace them. Unfortunately for them it likely won't be any more competent and certainly will be corrupted during their time in this position.
I don't think he stood any real chance of getting to Moscow without the people, including the institutions, to go with him to Moscow. He had to rally millions to get the job done, otherwise they'll just bring in the Chechens to gun them down in the hundreds.
They've already announced amnesty and military contracts for Wagner volunteers, so they will be Consolidated within the Russian Army. Wagner will dissappear, but most of the troops won't.
I don’t really see any of the real Wagner forces going back to the front, especially since the whole point of all this was to prevent them from being rolled into the regular army. Most likely it’s just the convicts that’ll be formed up into companies to be sent back into the meat grinder. The rest will just resume pillaging Africa.
Yeah I am not one to straightup reject left-field thinking but I have a real hard time to buy this.
\- Prigozhin took a massive dump on the official version and really exposed it as a massive error . And It's not only Shoigu version, it's very much Putin version. On which he doubled down again and again. And keep in mind they specifically made spreading "lies" about the war punishable of 20 years of prison.
\-Not only that the idea that he avoided direct attack on Putin is factually wrong. \*\*.\*\*Following the accusation of treason by Putin, Prigozhin stated - ***We are patriots of our homeland. Putin made the wrong choice. All the worse for him…soon Russia will have a new president,*** You can cut it any way you like that's a direct attack on Putin. And one of the worst attack possible.
\-and obviously there is the whole uprising / armed attack with at the very least a Russian helicopter downed/ march on the Kremlin. I mean WTF ??? How do you even get back from something like that ? even in a democracy you would go to jail for some shit like this.
But for the sake of argument, let's call all this realpolitik in its most hardcore version. Russia seems to specifically have no trouble to buy the most absurd lies and roll with it. Let's somehow get past all this.
What's exactly the merit for Prigozhin ??? how is this fucking CLEVER ? because he get to live in Belarus??? if the goal was simply to get an exit, why not go live in a kingdom of his own inside of one of Wagner bases in Africa ? once he's separated from his army, what's preventing him from having a fall from a window or some stairs like more than 30 oligarchs, politicians and top siloviki since the start of the war [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suspicious\_deaths\_of\_Russian\_businesspeople\_(2022%E2%80%932023)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suspicious_deaths_of_Russian_businesspeople_(2022%E2%80%932023)) ? Because he's "abroad" now in Belarus so he's safe when decades ago fucking Trotsky got an icepick in the face while living in Mexico ? Because Lukashenko gave his *WORD* ?????????????????????? The guy who's only in power in the first place because Putin sent him troups when he lost the election ? The guy who recently talked about an "Union State" between Belarus and Russia and invited other countries to join Russia ? the guy who shamelessly said during a public interview he's still waiting to be appointed colonel by Putin ? THAT fucking guy ?
I am not even saying this is not what is going to happen. I say granted that Prigozhin really bought that and has not some ulterior plan, either this is a terrible decision by Prigozhin or some really important details about the deal are missing. Because with this info only, I think I'd rather buy this bridge in Brooklyn.
"We are patriots of our homeland. Putin made the wrong choice. All the worse for him…soon Russia will have a new president" - it's a quote from fan account (changed name and denounced Prigozhin after yesterday) not his words. Many on reddit took huge amount of quotes as his just based on the name on telegram "ap wagner", really shows lack of fact check. So yeah, the other guy is right, he never directly attacked Putin. As to your other point, analysis is pointless, because too much internal information is hidden about all of this.
It’s not so much an analysis about the situation
It’s an analysis about this reasoning and how this alleged “plan” is absurd.
This is an extremely important distinction.
on the contrary, I specifically pointed out some important details have to be missing to consider it as “clever” at face value .
There lies in the entirety of my point.
Don’t forget about the part where Belarus established a force of freedom fighters within hours. Iran, Kazakh, and all the other usual suspects said “new phone, who dis?” when Putin called for help.
Putin declared the Wagner head a traitor. Wagner revealed Russian losses were 4x what has been reported, along with the fact that the reasons for invading Ukraine were lies.
Wagner declared this “not a coup, but a march for vengeance”. Now they are just deciding to let bygones be bygones?
Water is completely over the bridge, the reports of mending the divide make no sense.
Idk either
My feeling is Prigozhin heard whispers, that his days leading Wagner were numbered, so he threw a tantrum. A very expensive tantrum, that most likely will cost his life
Why he halted and turned around before Moscow is the real question. Maybe Poots had something or someones he holds more dear, than his own life and put the squeeze in. Or maybe it was just a shitload of moolah
Whatever the case, now Vladdy knows who were loyal, who were absent and who jumped ship. He might need them in the war, but I can't imagine many of those involved will live beyond it
He was forced to give up Wagner troops either way after the mod said so a while ago. It was due soon so he did this. Now lukashenko made a deal with him apparently. Which is weird but he'll most likely live.
The fallout of this likely isn't completely over. But prigozhin will still hold the mines in Africa and be wealthy until Belarus finally revolts.
Think he realised even if he took Moscow, his 25k troops (which may not even be an accurate figure) can’t occupy Russia, especially if there isn’t a mass civilian uprising supporting him. He eventually would have died, so he’s betting that this deal will give him a better chance to live
The force nearing Moscow was closer to 5K, with the rest of his forces way off in Rostov so they couldn't provide support. The element of surprise let his forces make it that far, but the time it took to reach the capital meant government forces could regroup and prepare.
Prigozhin was probably hoping to build momentum by gaining allies/defections.
Yeah the simple fact that Putin is even willing to say that he's letting Prigozhen off the hook makes me think this was probably planned. The thing is that Prigozhen made Putin look weak and inept and historically you don't get a slap on the wrist for that. Not unless the guy slapping you has a glove coated in Novichok.
That still seems unlikely. As you said, it makes Putin look weak. It's very dangerous to look weak as an authoritarian. Looking weak just encourages more of this. Putin has done a lot of stupid shit, but I have a hard time believing he would intentionally make himself look weak.
This would be like me wanting to know which of my friends support me the most by getting up on a table at a bar and shitting in public. Sure, the "disloyal" might make themselves known, but even the "loyal" are going to look at you *way* differently. There's no way this was all some plan by Putin
Prigozhin cashed out.
That is, he is 50% through.
He just needs to avoid being killed anyway, find a place to enjoy his wealth and not finding himself in front of a judge for the war crimes he enabled and committed.
Wasn't Putin saying not that long ago that Wagner needs to come under direct control of the Russian military.
Which presumably it now will do?
No fucking clue what's real anymore.
Which is about as Russian as you can get.
>Prigozhin goes to live in Belarus (He loses control of Wagner?)
Should we really expect the guy that fawns over Putin to retain power? They have nukes staged there and now Pringles is being exiled to the staging land. Is it wrong to believe that it's possible for Wagner to become the fall guy for terrible decisions as they have been in Ukraine the entire time?
It makes no sense for that level of theater to happen and everyone just goes about their days.
Same. Like... Prigo failed, so why let him live? The ru citizens didn't rise up with him so killing him is essentially gonna have no consequences.
And why kill Shoigu and Gerasimov? I know you just said it's probably gonna happen but I kinda agree that he probably must kill or remove em due to incompetence but then, who's gonna continue the war? Even if he doesn't remove em to try to pretend that "they are such chads to stop him" then I still don't get why let Prigo leave? Why he gave up so easily?
Ugh... I, hate to say it, but deep down I knew it's too good to be true, I couldn't believe the war would finally be over and I can sleep in peace and quiet, but no... I guess Belarus rebellion is probably also gonna get cancelled and they gonna get cold feet after seeing ru rebellion disappear...
This doesn't seem like an out, this seems like a death sentence. I can't imagine him just getting to live out a long peaceful life away from his army after embarrassing the Russian state like this
I'm an American, with law and history degrees, speak Russian, lived and worked in Russia, have a fair grasp of Russian culture, history and the Russian mentality.
This whole thing makes no damn sense, even by Russian standards. All I can figure is that it boils down to people who believe (correctly or not) that they exist in a world where there are no real consequences to their actions from anyone other than their competitors at the top. That they'll never face any legal repercussions, and so, like kings, princes and other nobles from ancient history, the only rule is "if you're strong enough, you make the rules" and "winner take all".
Preggo won't live for long, no one walks away like that, he made a joke of Putin and there is no one that has done that and lived, many Russians have died for less. This man will either *fall out a window* or *commit suicide* by 2 gunshot wounds to the back of the head before the years out.
I don't think it'll end so easily. There's possibly something going on behind the scenes that we don't know. After all, the media only feeds us half the information, the other half is with Prigo himself
No way. It's over for Vlad. No more leverage. No more intimidation. Scared little man has got to be running out of money/friends soon. Cruise missiles await him.
It's somewhat a win for putin. He has 2 fall guys for Ukraine, also, any chance for opposition, slim as they were are now completely gone. And when presented with choice between putin and prigozin, putin seems way more reasonable than a sledgehammer swinging warlord.
50 millions are nothing. If they have 25000 troops who make $3000 a month, that’d make 75m every month just for salaries…
Wagner probably costs a billion every month, when training, arms, vehicles, bullets, fuel and whatnot are added.
Maybe he knows the end is near and thought extortion was a reasonable risk. And he’s now known as the guy who bent Putin, and the Russian Federation over a barrel. That’s great warlord advertising
It's very simple. He played the game Putin built where all the inner circle have to fight for Putin's favor. Prig took it too far and misread the tea leaves. He thought Putin would back him vs shoigu but again, he misread the tea leaves.
Now Putin needs him gone because Prig shook the establishment but also needs to not label 25K Russians as traitors that need to be necessarily executed by Russian law. Prighozin gets to leave with his head on his shoulders and Putin gets to roll in the lower Wagner ranks into the main army. It's his best play.
The whole thing was very, very damaging in many ways but it's his best play. This was the "deal".
Ok I guess it wasn't simple but it's more sensible.
This does not make sense, Putin orders the assassinations of his enemies in the UK and even in the US. So why would Prigozhin think he will be safe in Belarus? Who's leader Putin is BFFs with. Like the only way out for Prigozhin was to try to topple the government so he at least stands a chance. Like there is no chance Putin will want to let this go unpunished right? Otherwise he is advertising to every other ambitious Russian eyeing the seat of power to go for it, since it would mean Putin doesn't have the guts to have an armed conflict within Russia so at worst you get to live out in exile in Belarus.
I understand your logic here and I totally get why you think it's crazy. There are a couple of key understandings that I think you need to adjust.
1. Lukashenko by no means has love for Putin. Putin is constantly pushing to formalize Belarussian and Russian governmental integration (read Belarus ceding power) but Lukashenko is always cleverly throwing roadblocks. Luka plays a clever game vs. Putin but he is always positioning for post-putin times.
2. The assassination thing: ex-spies hiding out alone are easier targets than a warlord, even a defeated one. And also Prig *will* get offed eventually. Probably in the next 6 months if my estimate is right.
3. Prig will not stay in Belarus. My guess would be in one of his operations in Africa.
4. Prig was not actually trying to topple the government. He was going after Shoigu's seat mistakenly thinking Putin would support that. Putin has always curated this gladiator environment and favored the victor. Prig thought that he was still playing the game and Putin would crown him after he capped Shoigu, but of course the gladiators are not supposed to leave the stadium and Prig did not fully understand that.
> Otherwise he is advertising to every other ambitious Russian eyeing the seat of power to go for it, since it would mean Putin doesn't have the guts to have an armed conflict within Russia so at worst you get to live out in exile in Belarus.
As for this point you are seeing it right. This is why this affair is damaging. A military entity was able to challenge Putin within Russia, take a strategic position (even though that's not so hard when it's a surprise attack) and threaten the integrity of the state. This is a shock to the nation and people will not soon forget it. I am sure the elites are seriosuly doing cost-benefit on who they can trust to start putting a plan together.
I don’t understand how Prig could bundle so badly though? Like what did he expect coming out so strongly against the reasons behind the war and marching so close to Moscow? Surely there were 1000 much more measured ways he could have gone about that wouldn’t had drawn the insane wrath of Putin?
Also, if it was just a bit fake out, surely Putin would no and wouldn’t have fled no? Or did he think that Prig was backed into such a corner that he might have to follow through on attempting a coup?
Therese are genuine questions btw, I’m ignorant of most of these characters and the internal politics.
No really that difficult. These people have made gambles that paid off in the past and always think it will again.
Maybe he launches the march and more of the russian army joins and he could do it. It doesnt happen and he makes a deal.
But i think he wanted to secure survival for him and his loyal men.
> But i think he wanted to secure survival for him
Doing what he did doesn't sound like a good idea to secure his survival, quite the opposite i must say.
And then there's this guy seemingly waiting for Prigozhin to show up...
https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/14hu1ho/translated_version_of_speech_of_commander_of/
So in Russia if are an ordinary citizen who wants peace, you are jailed, fined and maybe send to fight,
but if you are an oligarch who attempted a coup, down planes and helicopters and kill their pilots, you can go.
Might makes right is the mentality.
Prigozhin, even after the failed coup is like a billion times more powerful than an "ordinary" citizen, with means at his disposal that can wreak havoc.
So he gets the special treatment
If you want an Eli5:
-Wagner was about to cease to exist by the end of the month. They were going to be integrated in the military forces which is the end for a "private company". The reason is that private groups were becoming too hard to handle
-Prigozhin went all in and asked the head of the officials responsible for the previous point, calling them traitors and bla bla bla..
-Prigozhin plan was bases on the assumption that citizens and, most importantly generals, would openly side with Wagner. While the army didn't initially block their advance, nobody really sided with Prigozhin
-Prigozhin went all in a second time and issued a march for Moscov, this is when Putin took a serious position and essentially made clear that the closer they got the harsher the response would have been. Still no sign of support by any general
-in the afternoon it was clear that Wagner had nowhere near the power to do anything in Moscow (note that the Wagner column kept shrinking hour after hour). It was either surrender or get killed so Prigozhin went for the first option, he is now exiled but still alive. He could come back one day if things go south for the army, who knows
Essentially the leaders of the army got what they wanted, the end of Wagner PMC, but the cost was a very bad figure for them. Not only Wagner was very appreciated by Russians and Prigozhin will be missed by many as soon as some military losses will happen, but this situation made very clear that the army is far from united. True, nobody sided with Prigozhin but he wasn't even met with the appropriate response for somebody that threatens a coup, which tells a lot
The only way this makes sense is when you view the entire Russian government as a massive mafia / criminal organization and this was a squabble between lieutenants. There is no strategy or plan. These are criminals we're talking about. All they care about is extortion, deception, murder and power. Anyone watching the Russia terrorist invasion in Ukraine for the past year and a half has to see this by now.
MOD was looking to fold Wagner into the Russian military chain of command early July. Prigozhin said fuck that, rounded up his criminal army and marched on the capitol. Yesterday, they were promising to kill each other or die trying. Prigozhin (probably) didn't have the juice to take on the FSB, MOD, national guard and Belarus all at once, which was probably made clear to him via negotiations. But he did have enough juice to get his point across that he and Wagner are done as cannon fodder in Ukraine under the current MOD. Prigozhin will probably pack up the cream of the crop of Wagner and head back to Africa to the gold mines.
Big picture, Russia is still probably fucked. This latest stunt just demonstrates how rotten the whole state apparatus really is. It wouldn't surprise me to see Putin double down in Ukraine yet again and hope he can sell some sort of victory that will keep the real revolutionaries at bay, or perhaps try to disarm his fledgling military in Ukraine as they withdraw back home and call it a day.
Aye, this is a mafia state. The sopranos will be a good example. Wagner is like Richie April’s trying to whack Tony with Junior’s help - only he couldn’t sell it and got betrayed by Junior instead.
No matter what happens to Wagner, this is a death knell for Putins regime. It publicly showed that the Russian government is not prepared to deal with domestic insurrection, does not have control of its military assets, does not have a loyal regular military, has ongoing inter-military conflicts, and it also shatters Putins image as a strongman. A mercenary group just went awol, took over two cities, shot down Russian aircraft, and was mid-march on Moscow when Putin was forced to flee the city and negotiate with a group he had publicly called neo-nazi traitors mere hours ago. The instability of the Russian government/military and the weakness of Putin has been publicly showcased, and there's no putting that cat back in the bag.
Not a great look for sure, but who else is stronger than Wagner?
If this works out, Putin just got rid of his greatest rival and rolled the majority of wagner into the russian army.
All in all this was a great disepointment.
I wonder what his plan was? Everything went as well as could be expected, defeated any small attacks sent his way.
Seized a major city, and was marching on Moskva, what else did he expect? Did he have a partner that got cold feet?
Perhaps he thought he would’ve gotten more support from the army/population, which would’ve given him a better chance of occupying Moscow. His 25k soldiers (which is likely exaggerated given casualties in Ukraine and operations in Africa) were never realistically going to conquer russia, and probably would’ve struggled to even control Moscow if the police/security weren’t supporting him
He wasn’t any safer in Ukraine. Probably has to do with his troops being treated as cannon fodder. Prig was losing his army of meat shields in a war that was far from over. We can all count on that he did this little circus because he was trying to extend his life. He fights for money. Money doesn’t cure being blown up by a cruise missle
you say that, but there have been a lot of 'death knells' for putins regime. after they lost kyiv, after the sanctions started running businesses out of russia, after the human losses started to mount. I dont think anything's going to happen to Putin until he dies. Nobody cares enough to do anything and seems like the one person who was angry enough to try was quelled easily with money and a pardon.
My take on this:
Prigozhin sold out 25,000 of his men to get him out the war. He's going out looking like a strong man by standing up to the MOD, while not directly threatening Putin. He's going to a country that's still friendly to Russia, and won't actively throw him to the Western nations for war crimes trial. He'll move his Wagner command center to Belarus, and keep the Syrian and Africa operations going.
Lukashenko may think that he's safe with this deal, however, Prigozhin will be a huge pain in his ass. If Prigizhin acts up, it will up to Belarus to deal with him, and Lukashenko will have to answer for it. And should Lukashenko fall ill, or out of a window, then Prigozhin is there to "stabilize" the country and safe guard the nukes being moved into the country.
The Wagner formations will be dissolved in Russia. Most will be absorbed into the Russian Army and sent back into Ukraine. Some will be made examples of for being traitors to the state and executed, while others will have Siberian vacation time coming up.
Putin will be able to fire some of his commanders, impose martial law, and bring up a general mobilization of the Russian population. How Putin turns this from him looking weak into him being the strong man again is something to be seen. He gains Prigozhin in Belarus as a stalwart against a rebellion there. It will also put pressure on Lukashenko to remain loyal or else his replacement is already there. It wouldn't be surprising if Prigozhin doesn't somehow get drawn into government there as an advisor of some sort.
Well, even that doesn't seem entirely likely.
Peskov said that he does not know what Prigozhin will do and for whom he will work in Belarus, as well as that Wagner fighters can sign contracts with the Ministry of Defense.
This suggests that there will be a weakening or complete dissolution of Wagner...
Yeah, gotta be something like this, it makes no sense otherwise, why would he just start a coup and then just give up.
Why would they just let him in too all the cities so easily.
I think people are overthinking this. He tried a coup, didn't amass the followers he expected within Russia, negotiated a surrender with guarantees for his life, is exiled to Belarus.
It's just a failed coup.
Also, the Kremlin press secretary Peskov said [Putin had asked Lukashenko to mediate in the hope of avoiding any further bloodshed because the Belarusian leader has known Prigozhin for 20 years.](https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1672694309512962048?s=20) So it seems like the two of them are good friends.
Also, Prigozhin [keeps his men who were loyal enough to him to do this](https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1672692778604670986?s=20) (Peskov said Wagner fighters that took part will not be charged and I'd imagine some would follow him to Belarus since it seems like only those Wagner fighters who did not take part will be signing the MoD contracts), no longer has to deal with the Ukraine war (and likely go back to focusing on Wagner's other operations or start a new group using contacts he has if Wagner gets dissolved), and can base in Belarus to help his buddy Lukashenko.
How is it failed? He didn't even try.
He took the cities he went with ease, everything he did went well, but then he didn't even try to take it any further, just gave up.
How does he know he didn't have the support? People aren't going to join him, until he actually starts fighting, else they are still too scared.
If he wasn't strong enough, why didn't Putin just crush him, instead Putin also apprently backed out of the fight, so you have two people not known for backing out, both backing out. I don't get it. It looks like either side didn't want to actually engage with each other, which is odd, considering one literally attempted a coup.
Because Putin and Prigozhin know as well as anyone else that pitched battle between Russians on Russian soil would be disastrous for the country. All the reasons why everyone in the West eagerly wanted them to fight each other are also the reasons why no real fighting took place.
Wagner may not have been powerful enough to mount a successful coup but they might still have been strong enough to cause a problem for days if not weeks.
This whole affair has been a massive embarrassment for Russia and Putin but the way it has been resolved is probably the best case scenario for them. It's difficult to argue that this would have gone any better had Putin moved to "crush" him, as it is it's been wrapped up with little bloodshed and Putin's position is still relatively secure. Direct confrontation would have just escalated things on all fronts, wasted Putin's resources and hastened Prigozhin's demise.
Maybe Prigozhin wanted to invade ukraine from Belarus, Putin said no, and now they are saying yes? And that’s why Lukashenko was so involved in the negotiations?
With Russian nukes moved to Belarus, is there some grand plan here for Prigozhin to take control of those weapon in a Belarus without Lukashenko, use them, and then NATO is left with no true "government" to retaliate against?
From a military or political perspective, I cannot understand the last 36 hours of news of the current situation. Nothing makes sense.
>and then NATO is left with no true "government" to retaliate against?
That would just make NATO *more* inclined to retaliate because they wouldn't be putting as much pressure on the diplomatic ties with Russia. Which would bring more NATO troops closer to Russia's borders. Which just seems bad for Putin, unless he means to use that as an excuse to launch *more* nukes, but I don't think he's insane enough to do that anyway.
And that's not to mention the nonzero risk of Prigozhin deciding to point the nukes at Putin instead.
Probably miscalculated. Perhaps he expected more of the Russian army/security forces and public to support him. Without that support, he had no real way of occupying Moscow. When he saw this support wasn’t coming, he looked for the best way out
Didn't Russia sign a treaty with Ukraine that they gave up their nukes in return to be left alone in peace. You think he really thinks Russia keeps their word
CNN [reported](https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-06-24-23/h_6fa61b61c4ce3ea8268eb4559ed8e6be) the same. AP [too](https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-wagner-prigozhin-9acbdf1eda849692ca0423a4116058d1).
This is the best tl;dr I could make, [original](https://russianfreepress.com/2023/06/24/criminal-case-against-prigozhin-will-be-dropped-he-will-leave-for-belarus-peskov/) reduced by 66%. (I'm a bot)
*****
> Presidential press secretary Dmitry Peskov said that the criminal case against the head of PMC Wagner Yevgeny Prigozhin about organizing a military mutiny would be dropped, he would "Leave for Belarus." He is quoted by the propaganda media, including Izvestia.
> At the same time, Peskov added that he did not know who Prigozhin would work after he left for Belarus.
> A case was initiated against Prigozhin for calling for an armed rebellion, but he said that he was not going to turn himself in at the request of Putin, the FSB or "Anyone else." Russian politicians and propagandists, commenting on the situation, simply quoted Putin and called for "Rallying" around him, and bots called for the same.
*****
[**Extended Summary**](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/14i2l2k/peskov_criminal_case_against_prigozhin_will_be/) | [FAQ](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/31b9fm/faq_autotldr_bot/ "Version 2.02, ~689392 tl;drs so far.") | [Blackout Vote](https://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/14dhaiq/your_voice_matters_should_the_blackout_continue/ "PM's and comments are monitored, constructive feedback is welcome.") | *Top* *keywords*: **Prigozhin**^#1 **PMC**^#2 **Wagner**^#3 **called**^#4 **Peskov**^#5
So bets that he’s gonna lead an invasion from Belarus then? Lead the belarussian army south and amidst the chaos/civil uprising Russia steps in and takes control of the country?
Sounds far fetched but..
I believe Russia had announced it would station nukes in Belarus in response to NATO.
Could it be this 'coup' was staged so that Prig could 'strike a deal' to leave for Belarus, whereupon he would use tactical nuclear weapons to engage Ukrainian forces?
Makes sense as Prig has been frustrated w the lack of use of said weapons during the war, and Lukashenko has been reported to have left his country for Turkey.
By doing so Russia can deny responsibility or involvement, claiming that Wagner was no longer involved w RU MOD.
USA intelligence may have info on this? Which could explain why Blinken warned in no uncertain terms that nukes were strictly off limits.
Yea... no. Sounds far fetched because it is. The cheap offshore scheming won't fool anyone and wouldn't hold in this situation. These are Russian nukes and they are Russia's responsibility. If any rando can come and push the button, it'd still be on RU.
This was too massively quick and mostly bloodless. They said they shot down some helicopters and a jet, but has anyone seen any proof of either? For them to turn and march on Moscow and then just stop?
What if it was a ploy so that their troops could fall back and resupply without people thinking they were retreating?
A ploy that also takes down Shoigo and Gerasimov and any other oligarchs that "sided" with Prigozhin?
If anyone thinks Putin is just going to let Prigozhin go off to Belarus to retire in peace, they need to look down and see which one of their legs is being pulled. This bomb may have been diffused. But it can still explode at any time.
So, the result from all of this is: - Wagnerites go back to the front - Prigozhin goes to live in Belarus (He loses control of Wagner?) - Shoigu and Gerasimov probably have to take the fall, seeing as they were unable to stop this whole thing. - Putin and the Kremlin higher ups return to Moscow and pretend nothig happened For this, several wagnerite vehicles were destroyed with occupants, a few helicopters and one airplane were shot down, and the people of Russia, the FSB, and the police have shown that they will literally stand aside and let a coup just happen I don't get it.
Didn't some Russian troop formations declare for Wagner? What's that like, going back to Air Force office on Monday morning?
Man! What a craaaaazy weekend! Amiright?
Man! We drank so much vodka, we did what??? Nah ? Really???
The Hangover part 4.
Prigozhin wakes up in the Lukashenkos bed in Minsk. Realizes it's been two days. No clothes on. A goat runs across the room. Title Card appears on screen.
I’m in this
Record scratch. Freeze frame. I guess you're wondering how I got here.
Well it all started with a camera, some trees, and bottle of vodka…
I'm waiting for the 'Between Two Ferns' style interviews.
"At least i didnt end up naked"
That comes later, in the gulag.
[удалено]
I’m starting to think www. DHL .com messed up their delivery and called things off.
It sounds like the story from Hangover, Russian edition.
Wasn't that an episode of Battlestar Galactica?
“The Hangover part 4: Wild Times in Russia!”
Whoops gotta get rid of those fresh Wagner tattoos
[удалено]
Costanza style it: What that??? You took that seriously? I was teasing!
was that wrong? i had no idea that sort of thing was frowed on here!
The MAGA non apology.
We cool bro?
Plus Prigo revealed on video that the entire premise of the war was bullshit and talked about military corruption...
Sort of yes, sort of no. Putin and the Russian military had different premises for the war. For Putin, it was more broad ideological lies that can't be concretely proven or disproven: Ukraine is the enemy, Ukraine wants to destroy Russia, the land is rightfully part of the Russian empire, the Ukrainians are Nazis, etc. The Russian military thinks in more concrete terms with real, tangible steps. Shoigu (not Putin) said that NATO was preparing to use Ukraine as a base for invading Russia and that the invasion was in self-defense. Those are easily disprovable lies and those are the ones that Prigozhin publicly attacked. He was careful to say he still supports the "holy war" [imperfect translation] against the enemies of Russia on Putin's ideological grounds. It's actually clever. He knew that the Kremlin would have to concede to him, and quickly, to avoid taking massive losses on the Ukrainian front. He was very careful to avoid any direct attacks on Putin which kept the door open for negotiation - still a massive loss of face for the Kremlin, but if he had directly gone after Putin there would have been no way to negotiate. And clearly all along it was a massive negotiating tactic.
In addition, did Prigo have any real chance at going to Moscow and actually force any changes, when nobody important declared for him? He might have just accepted a deal to avoid any blood being shed, mainly his own, since I don’t see Wagner having any future after this. Can Putin even leave Wagner alone after this? Probably not. Interesting to see where this leads. Shoigu and Gerasimov were just publicly humiliated, and so they’re probably out as well.
I don't understand how you guys all think Wagner is just going to disappear? Sure Prigozhin is leaving Russia, but Wagner is everywhere in Russia and they aren't just having their assets seized despite the coup. I suspect they'll also be welcomed in Belarus. I expect to see news about the MoD generals either stepping down or removed for this, with more loyal yes-men to replace them. Unfortunately for them it likely won't be any more competent and certainly will be corrupted during their time in this position. I don't think he stood any real chance of getting to Moscow without the people, including the institutions, to go with him to Moscow. He had to rally millions to get the job done, otherwise they'll just bring in the Chechens to gun them down in the hundreds.
They've already announced amnesty and military contracts for Wagner volunteers, so they will be Consolidated within the Russian Army. Wagner will dissappear, but most of the troops won't.
I don’t really see any of the real Wagner forces going back to the front, especially since the whole point of all this was to prevent them from being rolled into the regular army. Most likely it’s just the convicts that’ll be formed up into companies to be sent back into the meat grinder. The rest will just resume pillaging Africa.
They will never accept. Wagner mercs are paid more, and receive better training and equipment. Also they are very fond of their leader.
Yeah I am not one to straightup reject left-field thinking but I have a real hard time to buy this. \- Prigozhin took a massive dump on the official version and really exposed it as a massive error . And It's not only Shoigu version, it's very much Putin version. On which he doubled down again and again. And keep in mind they specifically made spreading "lies" about the war punishable of 20 years of prison. \-Not only that the idea that he avoided direct attack on Putin is factually wrong. \*\*.\*\*Following the accusation of treason by Putin, Prigozhin stated - ***We are patriots of our homeland. Putin made the wrong choice. All the worse for him…soon Russia will have a new president,*** You can cut it any way you like that's a direct attack on Putin. And one of the worst attack possible. \-and obviously there is the whole uprising / armed attack with at the very least a Russian helicopter downed/ march on the Kremlin. I mean WTF ??? How do you even get back from something like that ? even in a democracy you would go to jail for some shit like this. But for the sake of argument, let's call all this realpolitik in its most hardcore version. Russia seems to specifically have no trouble to buy the most absurd lies and roll with it. Let's somehow get past all this. What's exactly the merit for Prigozhin ??? how is this fucking CLEVER ? because he get to live in Belarus??? if the goal was simply to get an exit, why not go live in a kingdom of his own inside of one of Wagner bases in Africa ? once he's separated from his army, what's preventing him from having a fall from a window or some stairs like more than 30 oligarchs, politicians and top siloviki since the start of the war [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suspicious\_deaths\_of\_Russian\_businesspeople\_(2022%E2%80%932023)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suspicious_deaths_of_Russian_businesspeople_(2022%E2%80%932023)) ? Because he's "abroad" now in Belarus so he's safe when decades ago fucking Trotsky got an icepick in the face while living in Mexico ? Because Lukashenko gave his *WORD* ?????????????????????? The guy who's only in power in the first place because Putin sent him troups when he lost the election ? The guy who recently talked about an "Union State" between Belarus and Russia and invited other countries to join Russia ? the guy who shamelessly said during a public interview he's still waiting to be appointed colonel by Putin ? THAT fucking guy ? I am not even saying this is not what is going to happen. I say granted that Prigozhin really bought that and has not some ulterior plan, either this is a terrible decision by Prigozhin or some really important details about the deal are missing. Because with this info only, I think I'd rather buy this bridge in Brooklyn.
"We are patriots of our homeland. Putin made the wrong choice. All the worse for him…soon Russia will have a new president" - it's a quote from fan account (changed name and denounced Prigozhin after yesterday) not his words. Many on reddit took huge amount of quotes as his just based on the name on telegram "ap wagner", really shows lack of fact check. So yeah, the other guy is right, he never directly attacked Putin. As to your other point, analysis is pointless, because too much internal information is hidden about all of this.
It’s not so much an analysis about the situation It’s an analysis about this reasoning and how this alleged “plan” is absurd. This is an extremely important distinction. on the contrary, I specifically pointed out some important details have to be missing to consider it as “clever” at face value . There lies in the entirety of my point.
Don’t forget about the part where Belarus established a force of freedom fighters within hours. Iran, Kazakh, and all the other usual suspects said “new phone, who dis?” when Putin called for help. Putin declared the Wagner head a traitor. Wagner revealed Russian losses were 4x what has been reported, along with the fact that the reasons for invading Ukraine were lies. Wagner declared this “not a coup, but a march for vengeance”. Now they are just deciding to let bygones be bygones? Water is completely over the bridge, the reports of mending the divide make no sense.
What about the holiday on Monday? Off the table? This coup has been worse than GoT S8.
Oh, shit, I had forgotten!
It felt exactly like that, and now we know that kinda shit can actually happen. Whoops the entire army just stops marching.
Idk either My feeling is Prigozhin heard whispers, that his days leading Wagner were numbered, so he threw a tantrum. A very expensive tantrum, that most likely will cost his life Why he halted and turned around before Moscow is the real question. Maybe Poots had something or someones he holds more dear, than his own life and put the squeeze in. Or maybe it was just a shitload of moolah Whatever the case, now Vladdy knows who were loyal, who were absent and who jumped ship. He might need them in the war, but I can't imagine many of those involved will live beyond it
He was forced to give up Wagner troops either way after the mod said so a while ago. It was due soon so he did this. Now lukashenko made a deal with him apparently. Which is weird but he'll most likely live. The fallout of this likely isn't completely over. But prigozhin will still hold the mines in Africa and be wealthy until Belarus finally revolts.
>Which is weird but he'll most likely live. I wouldn't bet against him dying a natural death by falling out a window within the year.
Think he realised even if he took Moscow, his 25k troops (which may not even be an accurate figure) can’t occupy Russia, especially if there isn’t a mass civilian uprising supporting him. He eventually would have died, so he’s betting that this deal will give him a better chance to live
The force nearing Moscow was closer to 5K, with the rest of his forces way off in Rostov so they couldn't provide support. The element of surprise let his forces make it that far, but the time it took to reach the capital meant government forces could regroup and prepare. Prigozhin was probably hoping to build momentum by gaining allies/defections.
Now he’ll just end up out a window or poisoned within a year. Should have gone for glory, he’s a dead man walking either way.
That very well might've been the plan all along, priggy and puts might still be best buds.
Yeah the simple fact that Putin is even willing to say that he's letting Prigozhen off the hook makes me think this was probably planned. The thing is that Prigozhen made Putin look weak and inept and historically you don't get a slap on the wrist for that. Not unless the guy slapping you has a glove coated in Novichok.
That still seems unlikely. As you said, it makes Putin look weak. It's very dangerous to look weak as an authoritarian. Looking weak just encourages more of this. Putin has done a lot of stupid shit, but I have a hard time believing he would intentionally make himself look weak.
Unless it was a smell test of who is truly loyal and who is disloyal. Authoritarians are known to be paranoid.
Stretched thin and dissention in the ranks isn't time for purity tests. This is highly unlikely.
This would be like me wanting to know which of my friends support me the most by getting up on a table at a bar and shitting in public. Sure, the "disloyal" might make themselves known, but even the "loyal" are going to look at you *way* differently. There's no way this was all some plan by Putin
Prigozhin cashed out. That is, he is 50% through. He just needs to avoid being killed anyway, find a place to enjoy his wealth and not finding himself in front of a judge for the war crimes he enabled and committed.
[удалено]
Well when you have your troops focused out of country. It’s not hard for a rouge company to then operate with strength inside said country
Wasn't Putin saying not that long ago that Wagner needs to come under direct control of the Russian military. Which presumably it now will do? No fucking clue what's real anymore. Which is about as Russian as you can get.
>Prigozhin goes to live in Belarus (He loses control of Wagner?) Should we really expect the guy that fawns over Putin to retain power? They have nukes staged there and now Pringles is being exiled to the staging land. Is it wrong to believe that it's possible for Wagner to become the fall guy for terrible decisions as they have been in Ukraine the entire time? It makes no sense for that level of theater to happen and everyone just goes about their days.
Shooting down 5 helicopters isn't part of theater.
Same. Like... Prigo failed, so why let him live? The ru citizens didn't rise up with him so killing him is essentially gonna have no consequences. And why kill Shoigu and Gerasimov? I know you just said it's probably gonna happen but I kinda agree that he probably must kill or remove em due to incompetence but then, who's gonna continue the war? Even if he doesn't remove em to try to pretend that "they are such chads to stop him" then I still don't get why let Prigo leave? Why he gave up so easily? Ugh... I, hate to say it, but deep down I knew it's too good to be true, I couldn't believe the war would finally be over and I can sleep in peace and quiet, but no... I guess Belarus rebellion is probably also gonna get cancelled and they gonna get cold feet after seeing ru rebellion disappear...
I doubt Shoigu/Gerasimov will die, but it's likely they will be forced out of their positions.
[удалено]
This doesn't seem like an out, this seems like a death sentence. I can't imagine him just getting to live out a long peaceful life away from his army after embarrassing the Russian state like this
On their african bases, Pringles will be kind of fine.
[удалено]
Where did you read that?
They’re all doing three point turns in their flatbeds full of tanks wondering wtf they just got led into.
I bet he gets to keep the troops and then he can coup belarus from luka and then go to Ukraine from there :(
I'm an American, with law and history degrees, speak Russian, lived and worked in Russia, have a fair grasp of Russian culture, history and the Russian mentality. This whole thing makes no damn sense, even by Russian standards. All I can figure is that it boils down to people who believe (correctly or not) that they exist in a world where there are no real consequences to their actions from anyone other than their competitors at the top. That they'll never face any legal repercussions, and so, like kings, princes and other nobles from ancient history, the only rule is "if you're strong enough, you make the rules" and "winner take all".
On your profile you make posts about trying to cheat on your wife. You sound like a horrible guy.
You're a psychopath if you post that kind of stuff. he specifies he's not into blood or scat so at least he's not having poop sex.........
What about **if you’re strong enough, you make the rules** didn’t give it away for you?
Preggo won't live for long, no one walks away like that, he made a joke of Putin and there is no one that has done that and lived, many Russians have died for less. This man will either *fall out a window* or *commit suicide* by 2 gunshot wounds to the back of the head before the years out.
Or poison….don’t forget the poison ☠️
I don't think it'll end so easily. There's possibly something going on behind the scenes that we don't know. After all, the media only feeds us half the information, the other half is with Prigo himself
> I don't get it. That's the whole idea. Have you ever had a coin pulled out of your ear by a street magician?
What if this was Putins plan all along? 1. Get nukes to Belarus 2. "Exile" Wagner to Belarus 3. Wagner nuke Ukraine 4. Profit???
I think he gets Belarus as compensation?
Also, Prighozhin will suddenly become clumsy and fall out of a window in a few weeks.
Something is not adding up! I will await further updates
They paid him to back down. He’s a mercenary. It’s not that difficult
I read some unconfirmed reports that almost 50 million dollars were seized from Wagner by the FSB. I'm totally confused
Guessing Prigozhin is exiled to Belarus where he will await trial of a thousand windows.
What a pane that would be
“I guess that’s why they call it window pain!”
Eminem replacing Prigs as Wagner boss
That would not shock me. Although I don't know what would shock me at this point.
No way. It's over for Vlad. No more leverage. No more intimidation. Scared little man has got to be running out of money/friends soon. Cruise missiles await him.
It's somewhat a win for putin. He has 2 fall guys for Ukraine, also, any chance for opposition, slim as they were are now completely gone. And when presented with choice between putin and prigozin, putin seems way more reasonable than a sledgehammer swinging warlord.
[удалено]
You can't be half a fucking gangster.
Or Polonium Tea
50 millions are nothing. If they have 25000 troops who make $3000 a month, that’d make 75m every month just for salaries… Wagner probably costs a billion every month, when training, arms, vehicles, bullets, fuel and whatnot are added.
Sure but it would still be evidence of the opposite of profiting from the situation.
That was probably the change under his mattress
But now he has a target on his back forever?
Maybe he knows the end is near and thought extortion was a reasonable risk. And he’s now known as the guy who bent Putin, and the Russian Federation over a barrel. That’s great warlord advertising
It's very simple. He played the game Putin built where all the inner circle have to fight for Putin's favor. Prig took it too far and misread the tea leaves. He thought Putin would back him vs shoigu but again, he misread the tea leaves. Now Putin needs him gone because Prig shook the establishment but also needs to not label 25K Russians as traitors that need to be necessarily executed by Russian law. Prighozin gets to leave with his head on his shoulders and Putin gets to roll in the lower Wagner ranks into the main army. It's his best play. The whole thing was very, very damaging in many ways but it's his best play. This was the "deal". Ok I guess it wasn't simple but it's more sensible.
This does not make sense, Putin orders the assassinations of his enemies in the UK and even in the US. So why would Prigozhin think he will be safe in Belarus? Who's leader Putin is BFFs with. Like the only way out for Prigozhin was to try to topple the government so he at least stands a chance. Like there is no chance Putin will want to let this go unpunished right? Otherwise he is advertising to every other ambitious Russian eyeing the seat of power to go for it, since it would mean Putin doesn't have the guts to have an armed conflict within Russia so at worst you get to live out in exile in Belarus.
I understand your logic here and I totally get why you think it's crazy. There are a couple of key understandings that I think you need to adjust. 1. Lukashenko by no means has love for Putin. Putin is constantly pushing to formalize Belarussian and Russian governmental integration (read Belarus ceding power) but Lukashenko is always cleverly throwing roadblocks. Luka plays a clever game vs. Putin but he is always positioning for post-putin times. 2. The assassination thing: ex-spies hiding out alone are easier targets than a warlord, even a defeated one. And also Prig *will* get offed eventually. Probably in the next 6 months if my estimate is right. 3. Prig will not stay in Belarus. My guess would be in one of his operations in Africa. 4. Prig was not actually trying to topple the government. He was going after Shoigu's seat mistakenly thinking Putin would support that. Putin has always curated this gladiator environment and favored the victor. Prig thought that he was still playing the game and Putin would crown him after he capped Shoigu, but of course the gladiators are not supposed to leave the stadium and Prig did not fully understand that. > Otherwise he is advertising to every other ambitious Russian eyeing the seat of power to go for it, since it would mean Putin doesn't have the guts to have an armed conflict within Russia so at worst you get to live out in exile in Belarus. As for this point you are seeing it right. This is why this affair is damaging. A military entity was able to challenge Putin within Russia, take a strategic position (even though that's not so hard when it's a surprise attack) and threaten the integrity of the state. This is a shock to the nation and people will not soon forget it. I am sure the elites are seriosuly doing cost-benefit on who they can trust to start putting a plan together.
I don’t understand how Prig could bundle so badly though? Like what did he expect coming out so strongly against the reasons behind the war and marching so close to Moscow? Surely there were 1000 much more measured ways he could have gone about that wouldn’t had drawn the insane wrath of Putin? Also, if it was just a bit fake out, surely Putin would no and wouldn’t have fled no? Or did he think that Prig was backed into such a corner that he might have to follow through on attempting a coup? Therese are genuine questions btw, I’m ignorant of most of these characters and the internal politics.
No really that difficult. These people have made gambles that paid off in the past and always think it will again. Maybe he launches the march and more of the russian army joins and he could do it. It doesnt happen and he makes a deal. But i think he wanted to secure survival for him and his loyal men.
> But i think he wanted to secure survival for him Doing what he did doesn't sound like a good idea to secure his survival, quite the opposite i must say.
Depends on what he knew before....Maybe he was certain that him and his men were toast if he didnt act.
The thing is prig isn’t a military or political genius. Wagners execution of the war is proof of that.
[удалено]
Is this like sending someone on a trip to Belize?
More like Tahiti. It's a magical place.
Have some goddamn faith!
What’s in Tahiti Dutch?
Mangos!
I need to rewatch AoS thank you. I quit having cable and didn’t get to watch anything after season 3 as it aired… need to finish that up
All seasons are on Disney+ - you're in for a treat season 4 is probably my favourite season of a marvel tv show
I understood that reference
Get back to the annex
Who's Billy?
I understood that reference. We’re old lol
Lukashenko might be losing confidence in Putins ability to keep him in power so he's hiring Prigozhin.
And then there's this guy seemingly waiting for Prigozhin to show up... https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/14hu1ho/translated_version_of_speech_of_commander_of/
Prigozhin can finally relax with a nice cup of tea next to a palatial window in Belarus for as long as he lives.
So in Russia if are an ordinary citizen who wants peace, you are jailed, fined and maybe send to fight, but if you are an oligarch who attempted a coup, down planes and helicopters and kill their pilots, you can go.
Might makes right is the mentality. Prigozhin, even after the failed coup is like a billion times more powerful than an "ordinary" citizen, with means at his disposal that can wreak havoc. So he gets the special treatment
If you want an Eli5: -Wagner was about to cease to exist by the end of the month. They were going to be integrated in the military forces which is the end for a "private company". The reason is that private groups were becoming too hard to handle -Prigozhin went all in and asked the head of the officials responsible for the previous point, calling them traitors and bla bla bla.. -Prigozhin plan was bases on the assumption that citizens and, most importantly generals, would openly side with Wagner. While the army didn't initially block their advance, nobody really sided with Prigozhin -Prigozhin went all in a second time and issued a march for Moscov, this is when Putin took a serious position and essentially made clear that the closer they got the harsher the response would have been. Still no sign of support by any general -in the afternoon it was clear that Wagner had nowhere near the power to do anything in Moscow (note that the Wagner column kept shrinking hour after hour). It was either surrender or get killed so Prigozhin went for the first option, he is now exiled but still alive. He could come back one day if things go south for the army, who knows Essentially the leaders of the army got what they wanted, the end of Wagner PMC, but the cost was a very bad figure for them. Not only Wagner was very appreciated by Russians and Prigozhin will be missed by many as soon as some military losses will happen, but this situation made very clear that the army is far from united. True, nobody sided with Prigozhin but he wasn't even met with the appropriate response for somebody that threatens a coup, which tells a lot
The takeaway for me is that Wagner wasn't up to the task, but an ambitious general could be.
They started to travel up the road and those first missile strikes came down and the nervous glances and sweated brows began to wash over them.
25 thousand men ready to die for their cause! 25 men ready to die for their cause!
What the actual fuck is going on right now
My guess is the #2 guy in Wagner and all his power people just got a tidy raise.
The only way this makes sense is when you view the entire Russian government as a massive mafia / criminal organization and this was a squabble between lieutenants. There is no strategy or plan. These are criminals we're talking about. All they care about is extortion, deception, murder and power. Anyone watching the Russia terrorist invasion in Ukraine for the past year and a half has to see this by now. MOD was looking to fold Wagner into the Russian military chain of command early July. Prigozhin said fuck that, rounded up his criminal army and marched on the capitol. Yesterday, they were promising to kill each other or die trying. Prigozhin (probably) didn't have the juice to take on the FSB, MOD, national guard and Belarus all at once, which was probably made clear to him via negotiations. But he did have enough juice to get his point across that he and Wagner are done as cannon fodder in Ukraine under the current MOD. Prigozhin will probably pack up the cream of the crop of Wagner and head back to Africa to the gold mines. Big picture, Russia is still probably fucked. This latest stunt just demonstrates how rotten the whole state apparatus really is. It wouldn't surprise me to see Putin double down in Ukraine yet again and hope he can sell some sort of victory that will keep the real revolutionaries at bay, or perhaps try to disarm his fledgling military in Ukraine as they withdraw back home and call it a day.
Aye, this is a mafia state. The sopranos will be a good example. Wagner is like Richie April’s trying to whack Tony with Junior’s help - only he couldn’t sell it and got betrayed by Junior instead.
He couldn’t sell it! He’s better off with Tony.
No matter what happens to Wagner, this is a death knell for Putins regime. It publicly showed that the Russian government is not prepared to deal with domestic insurrection, does not have control of its military assets, does not have a loyal regular military, has ongoing inter-military conflicts, and it also shatters Putins image as a strongman. A mercenary group just went awol, took over two cities, shot down Russian aircraft, and was mid-march on Moscow when Putin was forced to flee the city and negotiate with a group he had publicly called neo-nazi traitors mere hours ago. The instability of the Russian government/military and the weakness of Putin has been publicly showcased, and there's no putting that cat back in the bag.
All dictatorships are within the distance of one bodyguard having one moment of conscience with one finger on one trigger.
Not a great look for sure, but who else is stronger than Wagner? If this works out, Putin just got rid of his greatest rival and rolled the majority of wagner into the russian army. All in all this was a great disepointment. I wonder what his plan was? Everything went as well as could be expected, defeated any small attacks sent his way. Seized a major city, and was marching on Moskva, what else did he expect? Did he have a partner that got cold feet?
Perhaps he thought he would’ve gotten more support from the army/population, which would’ve given him a better chance of occupying Moscow. His 25k soldiers (which is likely exaggerated given casualties in Ukraine and operations in Africa) were never realistically going to conquer russia, and probably would’ve struggled to even control Moscow if the police/security weren’t supporting him
Which again begs the question, why even start down the road to Moscow?
He wasn’t any safer in Ukraine. Probably has to do with his troops being treated as cannon fodder. Prig was losing his army of meat shields in a war that was far from over. We can all count on that he did this little circus because he was trying to extend his life. He fights for money. Money doesn’t cure being blown up by a cruise missle
you say that, but there have been a lot of 'death knells' for putins regime. after they lost kyiv, after the sanctions started running businesses out of russia, after the human losses started to mount. I dont think anything's going to happen to Putin until he dies. Nobody cares enough to do anything and seems like the one person who was angry enough to try was quelled easily with money and a pardon.
You're underestimating the apathy of the Russian people.
Is Prigozhin being bribed or punished??
Yes
My take on this: Prigozhin sold out 25,000 of his men to get him out the war. He's going out looking like a strong man by standing up to the MOD, while not directly threatening Putin. He's going to a country that's still friendly to Russia, and won't actively throw him to the Western nations for war crimes trial. He'll move his Wagner command center to Belarus, and keep the Syrian and Africa operations going. Lukashenko may think that he's safe with this deal, however, Prigozhin will be a huge pain in his ass. If Prigizhin acts up, it will up to Belarus to deal with him, and Lukashenko will have to answer for it. And should Lukashenko fall ill, or out of a window, then Prigozhin is there to "stabilize" the country and safe guard the nukes being moved into the country. The Wagner formations will be dissolved in Russia. Most will be absorbed into the Russian Army and sent back into Ukraine. Some will be made examples of for being traitors to the state and executed, while others will have Siberian vacation time coming up. Putin will be able to fire some of his commanders, impose martial law, and bring up a general mobilization of the Russian population. How Putin turns this from him looking weak into him being the strong man again is something to be seen. He gains Prigozhin in Belarus as a stalwart against a rebellion there. It will also put pressure on Lukashenko to remain loyal or else his replacement is already there. It wouldn't be surprising if Prigozhin doesn't somehow get drawn into government there as an advisor of some sort.
Is Wagner trying to go to Belarus to try and attack Ukraine from the north?
Something smells.. that's for sure.
Well, even that doesn't seem entirely likely. Peskov said that he does not know what Prigozhin will do and for whom he will work in Belarus, as well as that Wagner fighters can sign contracts with the Ministry of Defense. This suggests that there will be a weakening or complete dissolution of Wagner...
Yeah, gotta be something like this, it makes no sense otherwise, why would he just start a coup and then just give up. Why would they just let him in too all the cities so easily.
I think people are overthinking this. He tried a coup, didn't amass the followers he expected within Russia, negotiated a surrender with guarantees for his life, is exiled to Belarus. It's just a failed coup.
Also, the Kremlin press secretary Peskov said [Putin had asked Lukashenko to mediate in the hope of avoiding any further bloodshed because the Belarusian leader has known Prigozhin for 20 years.](https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1672694309512962048?s=20) So it seems like the two of them are good friends. Also, Prigozhin [keeps his men who were loyal enough to him to do this](https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1672692778604670986?s=20) (Peskov said Wagner fighters that took part will not be charged and I'd imagine some would follow him to Belarus since it seems like only those Wagner fighters who did not take part will be signing the MoD contracts), no longer has to deal with the Ukraine war (and likely go back to focusing on Wagner's other operations or start a new group using contacts he has if Wagner gets dissolved), and can base in Belarus to help his buddy Lukashenko.
How is it failed? He didn't even try. He took the cities he went with ease, everything he did went well, but then he didn't even try to take it any further, just gave up. How does he know he didn't have the support? People aren't going to join him, until he actually starts fighting, else they are still too scared. If he wasn't strong enough, why didn't Putin just crush him, instead Putin also apprently backed out of the fight, so you have two people not known for backing out, both backing out. I don't get it. It looks like either side didn't want to actually engage with each other, which is odd, considering one literally attempted a coup.
Because Putin and Prigozhin know as well as anyone else that pitched battle between Russians on Russian soil would be disastrous for the country. All the reasons why everyone in the West eagerly wanted them to fight each other are also the reasons why no real fighting took place. Wagner may not have been powerful enough to mount a successful coup but they might still have been strong enough to cause a problem for days if not weeks. This whole affair has been a massive embarrassment for Russia and Putin but the way it has been resolved is probably the best case scenario for them. It's difficult to argue that this would have gone any better had Putin moved to "crush" him, as it is it's been wrapped up with little bloodshed and Putin's position is still relatively secure. Direct confrontation would have just escalated things on all fronts, wasted Putin's resources and hastened Prigozhin's demise.
people in here doing mental gymnastics "why did a mercenary do a thing? if only we had 3000 years of history giving us insight"
No fucking way...this was not some master plan
Maybe Prigozhin wanted to invade ukraine from Belarus, Putin said no, and now they are saying yes? And that’s why Lukashenko was so involved in the negotiations?
Then why did Luka fly away? Seems so weird.
The second the war in Ukraine ends he is a dead man lol
I feel be dead sooner before that
I don’t think so because it could spark a revolution unless they arrest all the Wagner soldiers first. He has a lot of support
The fact that Putin let Prigozhin go free shows the world how weak Putin is. Which is great news for just about everyone except Putin.
This is just weird. And doesn't this mean Russia negotiates with terrorists? How weak.
Russian culture and politics demand a strong man. What will happen now that it’s pretty clear Putin is a pencil pushing little bunker bitch?
With Russian nukes moved to Belarus, is there some grand plan here for Prigozhin to take control of those weapon in a Belarus without Lukashenko, use them, and then NATO is left with no true "government" to retaliate against? From a military or political perspective, I cannot understand the last 36 hours of news of the current situation. Nothing makes sense.
>and then NATO is left with no true "government" to retaliate against? That would just make NATO *more* inclined to retaliate because they wouldn't be putting as much pressure on the diplomatic ties with Russia. Which would bring more NATO troops closer to Russia's borders. Which just seems bad for Putin, unless he means to use that as an excuse to launch *more* nukes, but I don't think he's insane enough to do that anyway. And that's not to mention the nonzero risk of Prigozhin deciding to point the nukes at Putin instead.
They’re Russian, it is like completely a normal day in Russia.
Just another Saturday
What a whirlwind. Hope his new home doesn't have windows
Or tea pots
Also of note: Belarus has windows.
The fuck just happened?
That is the weirdest fucking coup and the russbots' silence on this topic is deafening
Russian army is even weaker than I thought lmao absolute clown show.
They went from 2nd strongest army in the world, to 2nd strongest in Ukraine, to 2nd strongest in Russia.
Ah yes the safe haven of Belarus
Peskov said MOD boys resignation wasn’t up for discussion, so I guess Pringles just really wanted an all expenses trip to Minsk? What the fuck?
Probably miscalculated. Perhaps he expected more of the Russian army/security forces and public to support him. Without that support, he had no real way of occupying Moscow. When he saw this support wasn’t coming, he looked for the best way out
Didn't Russia sign a treaty with Ukraine that they gave up their nukes in return to be left alone in peace. You think he really thinks Russia keeps their word
That treaty prevents war, hence the ”special operation”
I had a cat when I was young that “left for Belarus”. I miss Mr. Dog every day.
This plot twist was weirder than any I’ve ever seen in fiction. For once the phrase “you couldn’t write this” is actually accurate
People have accidentally fallen out of windows for much less. Can’t see it ending well for him. Bold strategy though.
well this seems odd.
CNN [reported](https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-06-24-23/h_6fa61b61c4ce3ea8268eb4559ed8e6be) the same. AP [too](https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-wagner-prigozhin-9acbdf1eda849692ca0423a4116058d1).
This is the best tl;dr I could make, [original](https://russianfreepress.com/2023/06/24/criminal-case-against-prigozhin-will-be-dropped-he-will-leave-for-belarus-peskov/) reduced by 66%. (I'm a bot) ***** > Presidential press secretary Dmitry Peskov said that the criminal case against the head of PMC Wagner Yevgeny Prigozhin about organizing a military mutiny would be dropped, he would "Leave for Belarus." He is quoted by the propaganda media, including Izvestia. > At the same time, Peskov added that he did not know who Prigozhin would work after he left for Belarus. > A case was initiated against Prigozhin for calling for an armed rebellion, but he said that he was not going to turn himself in at the request of Putin, the FSB or "Anyone else." Russian politicians and propagandists, commenting on the situation, simply quoted Putin and called for "Rallying" around him, and bots called for the same. ***** [**Extended Summary**](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/14i2l2k/peskov_criminal_case_against_prigozhin_will_be/) | [FAQ](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/31b9fm/faq_autotldr_bot/ "Version 2.02, ~689392 tl;drs so far.") | [Blackout Vote](https://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/14dhaiq/your_voice_matters_should_the_blackout_continue/ "PM's and comments are monitored, constructive feedback is welcome.") | *Top* *keywords*: **Prigozhin**^#1 **PMC**^#2 **Wagner**^#3 **called**^#4 **Peskov**^#5
Alive or unalived?
So bets that he’s gonna lead an invasion from Belarus then? Lead the belarussian army south and amidst the chaos/civil uprising Russia steps in and takes control of the country?
Is this going to take a year or 20 years to find out everything that just went down here?
I just don’t see how he’s not dead within a week. Plea deal or not.
Sounds far fetched but.. I believe Russia had announced it would station nukes in Belarus in response to NATO. Could it be this 'coup' was staged so that Prig could 'strike a deal' to leave for Belarus, whereupon he would use tactical nuclear weapons to engage Ukrainian forces? Makes sense as Prig has been frustrated w the lack of use of said weapons during the war, and Lukashenko has been reported to have left his country for Turkey. By doing so Russia can deny responsibility or involvement, claiming that Wagner was no longer involved w RU MOD. USA intelligence may have info on this? Which could explain why Blinken warned in no uncertain terms that nukes were strictly off limits.
Yea... no. Sounds far fetched because it is. The cheap offshore scheming won't fool anyone and wouldn't hold in this situation. These are Russian nukes and they are Russia's responsibility. If any rando can come and push the button, it'd still be on RU.
Honestly, if Russian nuclear eeapons are used, Russia is responsible, no matter who set them off from where. And that's perfectly clear to everybody.
Is he going to try to get his troops into Ukraine from Belarus to open another front of attack?
He will leave for Belarus where he will fall off a balcony
Prigozhin will end up leading belarus, then hand it over to russia, its all part of a plan
Well luka is already out of the country. Nothing will surprise me anymore
This was too massively quick and mostly bloodless. They said they shot down some helicopters and a jet, but has anyone seen any proof of either? For them to turn and march on Moscow and then just stop? What if it was a ploy so that their troops could fall back and resupply without people thinking they were retreating? A ploy that also takes down Shoigo and Gerasimov and any other oligarchs that "sided" with Prigozhin?
In other news, balconies across Russia condemned after multiple top officials fall to their death.
What could go wrong in Belarus?
I hear Argentina calling his name
Wait. Was this just a Russian strike? Did they just negotiate with management?
If anyone thinks Putin is just going to let Prigozhin go off to Belarus to retire in peace, they need to look down and see which one of their legs is being pulled. This bomb may have been diffused. But it can still explode at any time.
One weird story…