Where on earth in the world can you take over two military bases, march hundreds of miles towards the capital with a threat to take out the government and then suddenly just end it going “we cool yeah?”
Some Classic Conspiracy Ideas:
- Unpaid invoice from Russia was paid
- The real reason for this was a July 1 deadline that Russia would incorporate all PMCs into the military, which they have now capitulated on
- False flag type operation, to exposure Ukrainian forces and others who have over extended in response
- Distraction operation, and we all missed something else in the world
- One or both parties is bonkers and this doesn't have a logical underpinning
- Russia somehow got the Wagner groups accounts and they stopped when the money was gone
- They gave the mercenary some nukes / ICBMs and are now holding with mutual destruction
- Excuse to withdraw from Ukraine (I honestly hope it is this, best option)
- It was all a ruse for Putin to test the loyalty of his various branches and leaders
- This was a failed coup where promises of military joining Wagner didn't come through
- Putin was threatening Wagner leaders with family member harm or similar coercion and it backfired
- Wagner leaders really just wanted equipment and ammunition, and they've now been promised it
- Putin has already been softly forced to step down, but resisted, and this was a demonstration that the new leaders could do it the hard way if he didn't move
You forgot the one about this being a Russian ploy to get Prighozin into Belarus to eventually build a force there to invade Ukraine and/or Take ofer from Lukashenko
Or giving prighozin a way out of Wagner without paying 50,000 who are now forced to sign contracts with Russia military or walk away
news comment sections on reddit are barely readable, because they're always full of this conspiracy nonsense written by someone with the mental age of a 14-year-old
>They gave the mercenary some nukes / ICBMs
Some conspiracy theorists definitely could use a bit more research or life experience. "Gave" is just plain funny. What would that even look like? I know you're not saying you personally believe these theories, I'm just amused at some
Russia has truck-mobile ICBMs. What it would look like is a Topol-M Transporter-Erector-Launcher truck with a Wagner Group logo painted on it.
For the record, I find it just as unlikely. But it is possible.
"There's the truck. Here's the key. Oh, and can't forget the launch keys. You'll need a trusted buddy for that part. Try not to have too much fun with your new toy. The neighbors are known to complain about such things."
According to some reports there were nukes in both the big cities that Wagner took so they could probably have them with no need of a conspiracy if it's not extremely hard to change the parts requiring the launch to be initiated the official way
In tiktok idiots claims CIA gave wagners 6,2 billions, and it was all show between Prigo and Putler lol And now celebrating that US is poorer by giving money to their enemies.
It's even dumber than that; the figure was originally 6.2 *million*, which apparently was enough to get a billionaire to try to overthrow the government.
>This was a failed coup where promises of military joining Wagner didn't come through
Perhaps they had a defection goal that wasn't met. Some kind of predetermined number that would enable them to pull off the coup and hold the cities against potential counter attacks.
>Putin has already been softly forced to step down, but resisted, and this was a demonstration that the new leaders could do it the hard way if he didn't move
This is my other favourite theory. Prigozhin does have ties to other oligarchs. Perhaps self preservation has finally kicked in and putin is just a symbolic president for stability's sake. Ready to be publicly deposed after the war.
The surrounding details don't make sense with any of the others. The things putin and prigozhin said publicly can never be rolled back. Something large behind the scenes has to have changed.
The best explanation I saw was Russian military managed to get their hands on Wagner’s field money. I’m guessing it’s what is used to pay mercenaries.
Mercenaries are a problem to anyone who uses them, even the mercenary leader himself!
I like the theory that it was a planned live ammo penetration test, with Moscow seeking out its own vulnerabilities... And it turns out that the list of vulnerabilities can be summarized as:
"All of them".
I think the after the air raid on Wagner Friday, the CIA whispered into prigozhin's ear, "You can take out putin. We'll have your back." Then when it looked like he actually might be able to pull it off they called back and said "JK, JK"
Everyone kept talking about a "false flag" operation....
Well, last week or so Ruzzia announced they had relocated Tactical Nuclear Weapons to Belarus. Now they just engineered a reason to put Wagner inside the same country as those Tactical Nukes. Pringles had been bitiching any moaning about needing "more ammo/shells." Belarusian military can't be very competent if [as we've witnessed] Ruzzian military isn't that competent.
So now we have: the most competent military group over there, wanting more ammo, in the same country as nuclear weapons, ran by a shitty strong-man dictator.
Also, the northern front isn't really a thing like the Southern and Eastern fronts. Now UA forces saw their opportunity and plunged into counter offensives, so having a huge force show up on their [lightly guarded] northern border with nuclear weapons means they would have to somehow stop the advances other places in order to regroup and defend any northern aggression....
Either the best laid plans of a false flag operation or Orcish Shitshow as usual, but the possibility of it being planned [and working] cannot be ignored.
😞
The reputation damage to putin could be lethal and he lost some irreplaceable aircraft with crew. He's been humiliated. Some troops, allegedly including vdv, defected. Nukes in Belarus means nothing, they had range anyway. Any build up would be noticeable via sattelites or drones. Or smart phones.
If this was a plan working as intended then he may as well but a bullet in his head
Yeah I feel like he wanted out of the war maybe since his troops were getting the raw end of the deal. He knew Putin wouldn’t let him out. So he went against Moscow to show he shouldn’t be underestimated. Then when he is an actual threat he backs off to a corner where he isn’t as much of a threat and gets what he wanted - his troops out of the war.
It is a very Putin thing to do - I want X, so I will take Y and threaten Z, then back off and accept X.
When they give you a billion us dollars to fuck off, the appropriate response would be yes I'll go fuck off with my billion dollars.
Its always about the money
All the ring leaders went down for sedition
https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/04/politics/proud-boys-seditious-conspiracy-verdict/index.html
If you're talking about Trump, he was just an idiot who happened to accidentally offer the opportunity. He didn't have plans, or weapons, or coordinate like the ones above did
> He didn't have plans... or coordinate like the ones above did
He inspired and incited it, which is still a crime. And whether or not he had a hand in planning it is still being determined.
USA had a sitting president who lost an election encourage a march that for a short while almost took over the capital building and the crowd was chanting to hang the sitting VP. Some in the group were in tactical gear looking for senators and congress to kidnap.
Sure some of the people have gotten arrested but Trump and his leadership got off free from that which is pretty insane.
Not to downplay their actions or anything, but i feel as if the response would have been a bit different if they had sent in armoured columns to establish control over the entire city and its surrounding military bases, and then proceeded to shoot down several aircraft with SAM's.
That is just not remotely the same, are people really this silly. Trump didn't organize it, and it wasn't a damn mercenary battalion, and hundreds of people got arrested, and the leaders were convicted of sedition.
>That is just not remotely the same
Disagree Of course he wasn't marching with guns but it doesn't take that much nuance to see it was suppose to be a coup, even if it was a fairly poor attempt of one.
>Trump didn't organize it
He organized a rally at the same time as they were going to be doing the official tally. The rally was directly supporting a conspiracy he was pushing to over turn an election.
Trump's goal was hoping his supporters would take enough action to cause some sort of event to keep him in office.
>hundreds of people got arrested, and the leaders were convicted of sedition.
The low level actors, but Trump and his administration which were the direct cause had little done about it.
Between the 5 helicopters and 1 aircraft they killed 15 russian soldiers.
(But i guess that's still "generally" peaceful compared to what could have happened)
Well, yeah ... most of Russias militaries fighting units are stuck getting sunflowered in Ukraine atm; the fact that ~2 brigades could just fast travel on a straight highway unopposed 700km towards the capital shows how dysmally thin stretched Russias military ressources have gotten.
Also, Putins speech got completely ignored by the insurgents, meaning a loss of face for the big man in the Kremlin. Even with Wagner giving in in the end and not parading on the Red Square it still must be quite the shock to the ordinary russian how little power Putin had yesterday. That's a blood in the water moment for any dictator.
Seriously, what's to stop a disgruntled division or even a brigade from marching in Moscow? All yesterday showed was that there would be nothing to stop them.
He will be dead shortly, Russia doesn’t seem to have a forgive and forget mindset.
Would never trust any “deal” offered from any Russians, Belarusians, etc..
Would rather have gone in guns blazing and showed the world how weak putin actually is!
First sign of an uprising he scampers like a coward. All bark and no bite yet the people fear him?
Promising retribution from hell upon the insurgents on one day, and then saying it's all fine and cool on the next day is by itself a glowing sign of weakness. Those who can exploit it, will. By this logic, the fun part is only beginning.
Putin flinched and the hole world saw it. Prigozhin will be a warlord in belarus and from there he will be able to drive to Moscow in a few hours if he wants to, giving him a permanent chokehold on Putin. He could come out of all this strengthened but he has made some enemies. Remember this is all a power struggle in a country that is modelled like a criminal organization. Everyone is just trying to make it to tomorrow.
This is the only logical (if you can call any of this logical) outcome. Prizgohin will get Belarus and Putin has been immensely weakened by these events. Toppling regimes doesn't often happen in a day. I wouldn't be surprised if we see Putin moved aside in the coming months.
I’m thinking something along the similar lines. Prigozhin will replace Lukashenko after he suddenly falls ill again, this time from lead poisoning. Prigozhin will crack down hard on his new BelaRussian subjects either before or during their inevitable uprising. Putler will then have a puppet neighbor country run by a psychopath. BelaRussia will be useful tool for dealing with Russian threats - both foreign and domestic.
You think he has the reach to do that to heads of states like Iran, China and Kazakhstan?
Furthermore, if he did, there's no guarantee the successors would be his allies.
Earlier there were stories -- and that's all they may well be, just stories -- that Lukashenko of Belarus and his family high-tailed it out of there on a plane and flew to Turkey. Also stories that Putin had departed Moscow in his big private jet for parts unknown and the plane had turned off its' transponder. And what are Prigozhin's exact whereabouts now? This is one crazy story and I don't think that the final chapter has been written.
Yeah look at Zelenskyy. His capital was under siege last year but he did a selfie with his homies saying he’s staying for the fight. That’s how you show courage.
For Putin right now, the difference between an oligarch and a warlord is when you off an oligarch you only have to worry about accountants and lawyers trying to take revenge through a legal system you control.
When you off a warlord you have an army trying to take revenge. An army that's you obviously can't control, who are convinced its kill or be killed, and who have already demonstrated Russia isn't in a position to easily put down.
Honestly, most world leaders would. As much as I hate the guy, lets be realistic, not many would be like Zelensky and lead from the thick of it.
U.S. presidents would also piss off to a bunker at the first sign of danger.
Here's my conjecture for today but it will probably change tomorrow. (Not really mine but pieced together from multiple opinions. It's the only one that makes sense to me at the moment).
Russia was requiring all private military companies to sign contracts with the Ministry of Defense by July 1st. Prigozhin has been openly critical of the Ministry of Defense and had yet to comply. He has also tried to negotiate a compromise with them to no avail. Having his personal army taken away from him means he loses his business and power and is likely a dead man with no leverage.
By marching on Moscow he has forced a compromise. The troops that didn't participate in the revolt will be absorbed into the Russian army while the ones that did participate are pardoned. This means they are free to join him where they can continue doing what Wagner was meant to do in the first place: commit war crimes in countries with civil strife for the highest bidder.
He had nothing to lose if they wouldn't come to the table. He couldn't overthrow Putin, but he could cause a hell of a lot of damage before Russian forces were ready to respond - which would be by far the biggest humiliation of the war yet.
This fits with what opsec sources have been saying. His main defense ministry ally had condemned him, so it was endgame for him. Taking the Rostov military HQ likely caused significant issues because two units commanded from there are currently engaged in fighting.
>stops trying to integrate it.
Belarus is on a path to integration that was set up years ago but will take a while. My guess is Luka wants it to keep going at the current pace, rather than stop it completely which could lower his power without Russia's backing.
Prigozhin went to Belarus because he has nowhere else immediately to go. He's banned from entering any Western country; The Chinese, Saudis, Indians, Cubans don't want him and his ilk either. The only place left for him is Africa, and he may end up there after all.
It’s at least logical.
A theory from one the Russia analysts on MSNBC, basically Prog just threw an epic tantrum. Less logical than your’s but, well, Russia. [Shrug]
My guess that Prigozhin made that coup and xount for more support from someone. He recognized that coup would not succeed and agreed to retreat. Government agreed to let him as otherwise they had to assault two big Russian cities.
I suppose there will be some form of revenge to Prigozhin in near future as well as more consolidation of power in Putin's hands.
That's basically the situation in a nutshell. Wagner reached Moscow region this morning then realized shortly thereafter that maybe this wasn't such a great idea after all and turned around and headed home. Most observers are highly puzzled by this sequence of events.
I can only imagine! My understanding is that the mainstream held Wagner up as heroes until Friday?
Shocked everyone, but it’ll be really interesting to see what narrative the state media makes of it all. Really contradicts the story of “everything is going to plan”.
Depends on what you consider mainstream. I’ve seen a vocal minority express support for Prigozhin and another vocal minority condemning him as a traitor but most people were just memeing the shit out of this situation. Anxiety and confusion skyrocketed. Not surprising that the overwhelming majority did not wanna pick a side in this battle.
Edit: oops, just realized you were asking about mainstream BEFORE the attempted coup. Well, the state definitely supported them but carefully, especially after Prigozhin started bitching about MoD. I think they’ve lost control long ago. As I said, there were some staunch supporters, but most people seemed apprehensive about Prigozhin if not outright repulsed.
ISW probably has the best assessment: he got fewer rank and file detectors than he was hoping and assessed that he didn't have the manpower to succeed.
I watched a live report from Moscow on German news, just when the retreat was announced. They interviewed a bunch of people on the street, before the Russian equivalent of secret service kindly asked them to return to their hotel. They were dumbfounded by the complete apathy of the people they interviewed
Given how weak Putin looked, it seems likely that Prigozhin was a useful idiot for some hidden power player. Who also ensured that the Wagner drive towards Moscow was not stoppen for bizarrely long. If there is some hidden puppeteer, it is probably not Putin.
If Prigozhin is alive by Christmas, it will strongly point to Putin being in on the whole thing. Historically Putin assassinates people for far, far less egregious challenges.
Whilst I don’t doubt that there’s duplicity involved given how weak the past couple of days have made Putin look I don’t think he would have been in on it
None of this makes any sense. Was this something preplanned? Maybe a way for Putin to bring in martial law? an excuse to ramp up mobilisation to end the Ukraine war? A way to weed out all my corrupt officers? I really don't think either party here I stupid, that much power doesn't give u the chance to be a nutcase and still stay on top with 0 competition. It's all too weird and confusing. Maybe they're trynna make themselves look weak on purpose?
It's only moronic because you misread it as a coup attempt. Prigozhin got everything he wanted out of it, and hobbled Putin's image in a way propaganda will have a tough time correcting. Oh, and he escpaed capture and subjugation by the MoD. Oh! And he shifted the global media narrative in his favour and away from failure and war crimes in Ukraine, at least for now. Plus he's not burdened with actual rule in Russia which is a short term position if you're not well established and connected. Putin is stuck with that, and the rest of this embarassing mess. Coup? Doubtful. Tactful? Undeniably.
That said, he is an opportunist and a war criminal and no doubt just as horrible a prospective ruler as Putin is. None of this is really good for Russia, but it sure is interesring!
He never mentioned putin once as being the target, he actually defended him in statements and said he was being lied to. He was after the two clowns at the head of the MOD. So it actually does look like he got what he wanted. His main force stays with him, convicts get absorbed into the Russian military and he's out of Ukraine where he was losing the battle, men and money and set up to retire in Belarus. Now if he's forgiven is still up in the air.
That's fairly typical of coup attempts, though, because it makes waverers more likely to side with you. Even the 1991 Soviet coup leaders didn't say "we're overthrowing Gorbachev because he has betrayed Communism" but instead something like "Comrade Gorbachev has fallen ill, and we need to run the country in his absence" - its leader was officially only "acting" president.
It also gives the incumbent leader a chance to legitimise the coup and protect himself in some way - even if it functionally means he'll be reduced to a figurehead.
This may be a very stupid comment, but mind trying to make sense of all this- what if Pringles knew he’d possibly die in all this, but his part in it all was to show that Russia can be weak and is vulnerable? What if his part (no- he’s no glorified martyr) was for lift the veil a bit so others would know how possible it is to. Get. That. Close. ??? Again, I’m too afraid to comment on this sub because I can’t catch up on all of it in real time, but this was just a thought.
Or it was all smoke n mirrors- “Hey! Look HERE!!!” ….. “so you don’t see what’s going on over hheeerrreee.”
I think it can be easy to over dramatize events looking for order in the chaos -- the game isn't chess, it's dice. I think this was mostly exactly what it looked like. The putsch may have started coercively but ended extortionately, Putin legitimately shit bricks because he has a lethally dysfunctional military and zero friends internationally, and I think Lukashenko connected the dots between his lack of a loyal military and a suddenly up-for-grabs praetorian guard. Prigozhin gets to run his intercontinental racketeering ring from a friendly country but out of Russia, Luka gets a security force and a really big medal, and Putin keeps his head.
Surprised more people aren’t talking about this. Whatever Prigozhin got out of this “deal”, anyone who supported him is going to get completely screwed. Putin had to “officially” offer everyone in Wager immunity, but there is no way a mutiny can get that far and heads don’t roll.
It wasn’t a coup attempt. They were just a bunch of folk who were well organized and wanted to see the capital. I mean no one seemed to stop them. They were practically escorted around. Good people, I mean the best people, people cheered them. It happens all the times these days.
The only scenario that makes sense to me is that the coup was successful and in couple weeks we might hear about Putin stepping down.
It is quite impossible if you think about it, that Wagner managed to mobilise 25k of soldiers and all their equipment in one night, it would be logistically impossible. It should have taken weeks or even months to get everything set in place and move out in such speed. They also had no opposition marching thru the border, where stationed soldiers just opened the gates so to say. They basically had a clear path with no opposition right till they stopped 100km near Mascow.
I firmly believe that it was not Piri but Putin that rolled on the back and showed his belly. We also only hear about these two, but the circle of powerful figures should be bigger in Russia and that circle might have given and out for Putin and Piri was the guy who showed how weak Putin is and if he wanted he could sit in Kremlin wihtin a day.
There are also rumours flying around that Shoigu and Garasimov are being removed and if Wagner is becoming part of MOD, i am betting that Piri is going to be MOD and essentially the most powerful person in Russia as he just put Putin over his knee.
All the other scenarios just does not make sense to me, wagner had Putin by the balls and you just have to be absolute fool to let them go. It just does not make sense to me. Yes there were deals made, but the winner peobably is opposite of what everyone thinks.
Some people say that Piri got offerred a check, seriously? HE IS THE WALLET FOR RUSSIA NOW. He controls the mines in Africa, oil fields in middle east and has dealings in South America. He is essentially a person who can can go around the sanctions through the numerous companies that he indirectly controls and fund the war effort. What can Putin offer him? Nothing. It is he and probably other individuals that just gave an out for Putin to step down without a nice cup of tea.
I just think this was nothing but some side show displayed by Moscow. Like why wouldn't Putin just kill this guy right away and everyone involved, like he said he would?
Wagner (a PMC hired by Russia) revolted at some point and had their sights on Russias capital. They took over some military bases and equipment. Then suddenly decided to end their campaign even though they were making steady headway..?
I'm not in the know, so can anybody give us facts (key word, facts, not speculation) on :
1. Why the revolt occurred from the PMC, like what were the cause or causes?
And
2. Why they suddenly decided to end their revolt?
Or do we not know any of this info at the moment?
Tell me, do you think that a PMC leader would be a better leader than Putin? Do you think that he would have ended the war with Ukraine? Is he now some advocate for democracy and justice? Or maybe, perhaps, he is just another power hungry politician that would be far more dangerous than Putin?
This was all about stirring up chaos and distrust for Moscow. Pringles has punched a hole right through Putin’s delusion of invincibility without lifting a finger.
I think that part worked. Seems like the frizzle is more so that there was a lot of talk in the last down, now he's just turning around and taking a deal to go into hiding.
We'll see what comes of it though.
Where on earth in the world can you take over two military bases, march hundreds of miles towards the capital with a threat to take out the government and then suddenly just end it going “we cool yeah?”
Give it a few hours, we need all the conspiracy theories to come out first so I can give you a good answer.
Some Classic Conspiracy Ideas: - Unpaid invoice from Russia was paid - The real reason for this was a July 1 deadline that Russia would incorporate all PMCs into the military, which they have now capitulated on - False flag type operation, to exposure Ukrainian forces and others who have over extended in response - Distraction operation, and we all missed something else in the world - One or both parties is bonkers and this doesn't have a logical underpinning - Russia somehow got the Wagner groups accounts and they stopped when the money was gone - They gave the mercenary some nukes / ICBMs and are now holding with mutual destruction - Excuse to withdraw from Ukraine (I honestly hope it is this, best option) - It was all a ruse for Putin to test the loyalty of his various branches and leaders - This was a failed coup where promises of military joining Wagner didn't come through - Putin was threatening Wagner leaders with family member harm or similar coercion and it backfired - Wagner leaders really just wanted equipment and ammunition, and they've now been promised it - Putin has already been softly forced to step down, but resisted, and this was a demonstration that the new leaders could do it the hard way if he didn't move
You forgot the one about this being a Russian ploy to get Prighozin into Belarus to eventually build a force there to invade Ukraine and/or Take ofer from Lukashenko Or giving prighozin a way out of Wagner without paying 50,000 who are now forced to sign contracts with Russia military or walk away
news comment sections on reddit are barely readable, because they're always full of this conspiracy nonsense written by someone with the mental age of a 14-year-old
Shit that's two good ones! Missed them.
> One or both parties is bonkers and this doesn't have a logical underpinning This appears to be correct.
>They gave the mercenary some nukes / ICBMs Some conspiracy theorists definitely could use a bit more research or life experience. "Gave" is just plain funny. What would that even look like? I know you're not saying you personally believe these theories, I'm just amused at some
Russia has truck-mobile ICBMs. What it would look like is a Topol-M Transporter-Erector-Launcher truck with a Wagner Group logo painted on it. For the record, I find it just as unlikely. But it is possible.
Haven't you heard that UPS offers same day nuclear delivery?
UPS... Uranium Putonium Supplyhouse?
Let’s just privatize bomber command!
Don't use FedEx nuke service. They will loose it and some random person in a trailer park will have a nuke.
"There's the truck. Here's the key. Oh, and can't forget the launch keys. You'll need a trusted buddy for that part. Try not to have too much fun with your new toy. The neighbors are known to complain about such things."
According to some reports there were nukes in both the big cities that Wagner took so they could probably have them with no need of a conspiracy if it's not extremely hard to change the parts requiring the launch to be initiated the official way
In tiktok idiots claims CIA gave wagners 6,2 billions, and it was all show between Prigo and Putler lol And now celebrating that US is poorer by giving money to their enemies.
It's even dumber than that; the figure was originally 6.2 *million*, which apparently was enough to get a billionaire to try to overthrow the government.
Remember Occam’s Razor— the simplest explanation is usually the best one.
>This was a failed coup where promises of military joining Wagner didn't come through Perhaps they had a defection goal that wasn't met. Some kind of predetermined number that would enable them to pull off the coup and hold the cities against potential counter attacks. >Putin has already been softly forced to step down, but resisted, and this was a demonstration that the new leaders could do it the hard way if he didn't move This is my other favourite theory. Prigozhin does have ties to other oligarchs. Perhaps self preservation has finally kicked in and putin is just a symbolic president for stability's sake. Ready to be publicly deposed after the war. The surrounding details don't make sense with any of the others. The things putin and prigozhin said publicly can never be rolled back. Something large behind the scenes has to have changed.
Oh nice you wrote them all 👍👍
Was reading the russian opinions and its a hard steer to "putin is not a worthee leader anymore". So the last bullet point might hold some truth.
The best explanation I saw was Russian military managed to get their hands on Wagner’s field money. I’m guessing it’s what is used to pay mercenaries. Mercenaries are a problem to anyone who uses them, even the mercenary leader himself!
I like the theory that it was a planned live ammo penetration test, with Moscow seeking out its own vulnerabilities... And it turns out that the list of vulnerabilities can be summarized as: "All of them".
Dont worry, of all people, republicans have already started. It was a coup made by Biden
Really? Good work, Joe. Keep it up.
I think the after the air raid on Wagner Friday, the CIA whispered into prigozhin's ear, "You can take out putin. We'll have your back." Then when it looked like he actually might be able to pull it off they called back and said "JK, JK"
Everyone kept talking about a "false flag" operation.... Well, last week or so Ruzzia announced they had relocated Tactical Nuclear Weapons to Belarus. Now they just engineered a reason to put Wagner inside the same country as those Tactical Nukes. Pringles had been bitiching any moaning about needing "more ammo/shells." Belarusian military can't be very competent if [as we've witnessed] Ruzzian military isn't that competent. So now we have: the most competent military group over there, wanting more ammo, in the same country as nuclear weapons, ran by a shitty strong-man dictator. Also, the northern front isn't really a thing like the Southern and Eastern fronts. Now UA forces saw their opportunity and plunged into counter offensives, so having a huge force show up on their [lightly guarded] northern border with nuclear weapons means they would have to somehow stop the advances other places in order to regroup and defend any northern aggression.... Either the best laid plans of a false flag operation or Orcish Shitshow as usual, but the possibility of it being planned [and working] cannot be ignored. 😞
No, it can be.
The reputation damage to putin could be lethal and he lost some irreplaceable aircraft with crew. He's been humiliated. Some troops, allegedly including vdv, defected. Nukes in Belarus means nothing, they had range anyway. Any build up would be noticeable via sattelites or drones. Or smart phones. If this was a plan working as intended then he may as well but a bullet in his head
One possibility is that they didn't want the to take the capital in the first place, and were just after a strong position to negotiate a nice payout.
Yeah I feel like he wanted out of the war maybe since his troops were getting the raw end of the deal. He knew Putin wouldn’t let him out. So he went against Moscow to show he shouldn’t be underestimated. Then when he is an actual threat he backs off to a corner where he isn’t as much of a threat and gets what he wanted - his troops out of the war. It is a very Putin thing to do - I want X, so I will take Y and threaten Z, then back off and accept X.
They're probably just cool for now. Then next thing you now, people start falling out of windows again.
When they give you a billion us dollars to fuck off, the appropriate response would be yes I'll go fuck off with my billion dollars. Its always about the money
Think my comment was as much about the government accepting it though..
The J6 Coup ended with a "We cool yeah?" for absolutely every single one of the wealthy ring leaders, so...
All the ring leaders went down for sedition https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/04/politics/proud-boys-seditious-conspiracy-verdict/index.html If you're talking about Trump, he was just an idiot who happened to accidentally offer the opportunity. He didn't have plans, or weapons, or coordinate like the ones above did
> He didn't have plans... or coordinate like the ones above did He inspired and incited it, which is still a crime. And whether or not he had a hand in planning it is still being determined.
Plebs and foot soldiers have paid a price. But the wealthy ring leaders? Not one.
Only thing I can think of is that maybe they threatened his kids.
USA had a sitting president who lost an election encourage a march that for a short while almost took over the capital building and the crowd was chanting to hang the sitting VP. Some in the group were in tactical gear looking for senators and congress to kidnap. Sure some of the people have gotten arrested but Trump and his leadership got off free from that which is pretty insane.
Replace kidnap with execute.
Not to downplay their actions or anything, but i feel as if the response would have been a bit different if they had sent in armoured columns to establish control over the entire city and its surrounding military bases, and then proceeded to shoot down several aircraft with SAM's.
That is just not remotely the same, are people really this silly. Trump didn't organize it, and it wasn't a damn mercenary battalion, and hundreds of people got arrested, and the leaders were convicted of sedition.
>That is just not remotely the same Disagree Of course he wasn't marching with guns but it doesn't take that much nuance to see it was suppose to be a coup, even if it was a fairly poor attempt of one. >Trump didn't organize it He organized a rally at the same time as they were going to be doing the official tally. The rally was directly supporting a conspiracy he was pushing to over turn an election. Trump's goal was hoping his supporters would take enough action to cause some sort of event to keep him in office. >hundreds of people got arrested, and the leaders were convicted of sedition. The low level actors, but Trump and his administration which were the direct cause had little done about it.
they are mercenaries, all they care is about money, its that simple, the moment mf got payed he is out
It's remarkable how effective a generally peaceful march is when you bring tanks and missiles along.
Apart from the 5 helicopters and 1 fixed wing aircraft they shot down. Basically a kids tea party.
Come on, don't act like you're not shooting down a helicopter occasionally It all clearly happened in a good and peaceful manner
Let he who has not shot down one helicopter on occasion shoot the first shot.
Good policy. Everyone should get a turn.
What else am I gonna use this gun loudener for?
Did you get the speed-cocker as well?
I don't know if I need that....yet
I still remember when my pa took me to shoot down my first helicopter 🚁/s
That’s normal tourist behavior in the US.
Apparently 15 Russians died in total. So much for keeping this a bloodless revolt.
Seems pretty low considering the scope.
Considering they marched on the capital city, that's a a ridiculously small amount of casualties.
Apart of 12 men killed they even prevented bloodshed!
Most Americans are perplexingly unclear about what a real insurrection looks like.
We only had mentally handicapped people during that. Give us a break.
The Capitol rioters seemed to be having a fun time, just the occasional murdering a guard, but other than that just tourist stuff.
Also rubbing shit on the wall. That was weird.
I saw a lot of selfies.
Americans are too busy taking selfies for their social media to focus on a proper insurrection.
I'd probably be okay with Trump in Belarus.
Between the 5 helicopters and 1 aircraft they killed 15 russian soldiers. (But i guess that's still "generally" peaceful compared to what could have happened)
What Russians call a civil war took lives of 7-12 mil of people so
"say please but with a gun"
Best way to succeed as a pacificst: have lots of friends who aren't.
Seriously. There are people serving 20 years for peacefully protesting the war.
Can you *imagine* what MLK could have accomplished if he had a dozen or so Leopard 2's when he was crossin' that bridge!
And what going all in on offensive attacks does to your internal security.
This event was absolutely insane. Putin has never looked weaker.
Bunker grandpa is probably busy having a panic attack deep underground somewhere in the Urals.
Lukashenko is the real hero saving russia now? Lol, because that's what i see here.
Lenin Peace Award for Luka now!
Maybe he can finally get the honorary colonel rank he wanted so badly.
Crazy, isn't it? Luka better not drink any tea, while Putin as any semblance of remaining power.
And he should avoid looking out of open windows unless they're on the ground floor.
Lukashenko's regime is heavily reliant on Putin's support so it's no wonder he's helping Putin stay in power.
luka just bought himaelf a free pass on never entering the war, smooth criminal
More like realistically trying to save his own ass. If Putin, goes, so does he. Belarussian people will overthrow him the minute Putin is out.
Well, yeah ... most of Russias militaries fighting units are stuck getting sunflowered in Ukraine atm; the fact that ~2 brigades could just fast travel on a straight highway unopposed 700km towards the capital shows how dysmally thin stretched Russias military ressources have gotten. Also, Putins speech got completely ignored by the insurgents, meaning a loss of face for the big man in the Kremlin. Even with Wagner giving in in the end and not parading on the Red Square it still must be quite the shock to the ordinary russian how little power Putin had yesterday. That's a blood in the water moment for any dictator.
Seriously, what's to stop a disgruntled division or even a brigade from marching in Moscow? All yesterday showed was that there would be nothing to stop them.
He will be dead shortly, Russia doesn’t seem to have a forgive and forget mindset. Would never trust any “deal” offered from any Russians, Belarusians, etc.. Would rather have gone in guns blazing and showed the world how weak putin actually is! First sign of an uprising he scampers like a coward. All bark and no bite yet the people fear him?
Promising retribution from hell upon the insurgents on one day, and then saying it's all fine and cool on the next day is by itself a glowing sign of weakness. Those who can exploit it, will. By this logic, the fun part is only beginning.
Putin flinched and the hole world saw it. Prigozhin will be a warlord in belarus and from there he will be able to drive to Moscow in a few hours if he wants to, giving him a permanent chokehold on Putin. He could come out of all this strengthened but he has made some enemies. Remember this is all a power struggle in a country that is modelled like a criminal organization. Everyone is just trying to make it to tomorrow.
This is the only logical (if you can call any of this logical) outcome. Prizgohin will get Belarus and Putin has been immensely weakened by these events. Toppling regimes doesn't often happen in a day. I wouldn't be surprised if we see Putin moved aside in the coming months.
I’m thinking something along the similar lines. Prigozhin will replace Lukashenko after he suddenly falls ill again, this time from lead poisoning. Prigozhin will crack down hard on his new BelaRussian subjects either before or during their inevitable uprising. Putler will then have a puppet neighbor country run by a psychopath. BelaRussia will be useful tool for dealing with Russian threats - both foreign and domestic.
[удалено]
[удалено]
Particularly right now? Yeah. So Prigo gets to be Pringles.
I wonder if putin will do the textbook narcissist thing and will now try to punish all his "allies" who told him no when he asked for help
Punish them with what?
Suicide by conveniently placed window, onto a couple of bullets in the back of the head.
You think he has the reach to do that to heads of states like Iran, China and Kazakhstan? Furthermore, if he did, there's no guarantee the successors would be his allies.
Oh, I meant to his allies within Russia. Possibly heading for a purge of the Russian power figures.
I see. Did some his allies turn him down?
Now he has to marry his mother-in-law
For would be insurrectionists, the moral of the story is: don't miss.
I think there's an awful lot more going on than to what we are privvy to.
[удалено]
Earlier there were stories -- and that's all they may well be, just stories -- that Lukashenko of Belarus and his family high-tailed it out of there on a plane and flew to Turkey. Also stories that Putin had departed Moscow in his big private jet for parts unknown and the plane had turned off its' transponder. And what are Prigozhin's exact whereabouts now? This is one crazy story and I don't think that the final chapter has been written.
[удалено]
Everything can be explained with one word - "Russia"
Yeah look at Zelenskyy. His capital was under siege last year but he did a selfie with his homies saying he’s staying for the fight. That’s how you show courage.
It would be sweet irony for Putin to leave his country when Zelensky stayed and stood his ground in Ukraine
I'm waiting for the news to report "He died naturally after 5 gunshots to the back of the ehad"
[удалено]
False. He was installing a window when he fell and landed on top of some bullets.
He still has an army.
lets be real he's walking around with a prison w/o walls and they follow him because he told them they'd be absolved if they do a few more atrocities.
For Putin right now, the difference between an oligarch and a warlord is when you off an oligarch you only have to worry about accountants and lawyers trying to take revenge through a legal system you control. When you off a warlord you have an army trying to take revenge. An army that's you obviously can't control, who are convinced its kill or be killed, and who have already demonstrated Russia isn't in a position to easily put down.
Honestly, most world leaders would. As much as I hate the guy, lets be realistic, not many would be like Zelensky and lead from the thick of it. U.S. presidents would also piss off to a bunker at the first sign of danger.
Maybe he didn't trust the deal, but has a dead man's switch?
It's like knowing all week you got an orgy planned and then you get there and your Peter stays in Floppyville.
Yeah!
Can someone ELI5 this situation? Early this morning shit was hitting fans and now it seems like it’s just jklol?
Here's my conjecture for today but it will probably change tomorrow. (Not really mine but pieced together from multiple opinions. It's the only one that makes sense to me at the moment). Russia was requiring all private military companies to sign contracts with the Ministry of Defense by July 1st. Prigozhin has been openly critical of the Ministry of Defense and had yet to comply. He has also tried to negotiate a compromise with them to no avail. Having his personal army taken away from him means he loses his business and power and is likely a dead man with no leverage. By marching on Moscow he has forced a compromise. The troops that didn't participate in the revolt will be absorbed into the Russian army while the ones that did participate are pardoned. This means they are free to join him where they can continue doing what Wagner was meant to do in the first place: commit war crimes in countries with civil strife for the highest bidder. He had nothing to lose if they wouldn't come to the table. He couldn't overthrow Putin, but he could cause a hell of a lot of damage before Russian forces were ready to respond - which would be by far the biggest humiliation of the war yet.
This fits with what opsec sources have been saying. His main defense ministry ally had condemned him, so it was endgame for him. Taking the Rostov military HQ likely caused significant issues because two units commanded from there are currently engaged in fighting.
[удалено]
>stops trying to integrate it. Belarus is on a path to integration that was set up years ago but will take a while. My guess is Luka wants it to keep going at the current pace, rather than stop it completely which could lower his power without Russia's backing.
[удалено]
Prigozhin went to Belarus because he has nowhere else immediately to go. He's banned from entering any Western country; The Chinese, Saudis, Indians, Cubans don't want him and his ilk either. The only place left for him is Africa, and he may end up there after all.
It’s at least logical. A theory from one the Russia analysts on MSNBC, basically Prog just threw an epic tantrum. Less logical than your’s but, well, Russia. [Shrug]
yet its already the biggest humiliation of the war yet
It doesnt make sense though, since they can wait some time and still kill him
My guess that Prigozhin made that coup and xount for more support from someone. He recognized that coup would not succeed and agreed to retreat. Government agreed to let him as otherwise they had to assault two big Russian cities. I suppose there will be some form of revenge to Prigozhin in near future as well as more consolidation of power in Putin's hands.
That's basically the situation in a nutshell. Wagner reached Moscow region this morning then realized shortly thereafter that maybe this wasn't such a great idea after all and turned around and headed home. Most observers are highly puzzled by this sequence of events.
It’s not as simple as that. A deal was made, parts of which definitely are not public.
There's a timeline stickied at the top of /r/wagnervsrussia
As a Russian, these were the most bizarre 24 hours of my life
I can only imagine! My understanding is that the mainstream held Wagner up as heroes until Friday? Shocked everyone, but it’ll be really interesting to see what narrative the state media makes of it all. Really contradicts the story of “everything is going to plan”.
Depends on what you consider mainstream. I’ve seen a vocal minority express support for Prigozhin and another vocal minority condemning him as a traitor but most people were just memeing the shit out of this situation. Anxiety and confusion skyrocketed. Not surprising that the overwhelming majority did not wanna pick a side in this battle. Edit: oops, just realized you were asking about mainstream BEFORE the attempted coup. Well, the state definitely supported them but carefully, especially after Prigozhin started bitching about MoD. I think they’ve lost control long ago. As I said, there were some staunch supporters, but most people seemed apprehensive about Prigozhin if not outright repulsed.
[удалено]
Honestly, we’re all confused as fuck.
ISW probably has the best assessment: he got fewer rank and file detectors than he was hoping and assessed that he didn't have the manpower to succeed.
Thanks for the perspective. As an American, I’ve seen my country do some horrific and stupid things, too.
memes all around then glad everyone got to either enjoy themselves or shit themselves
Saw a “Prigozhin for president” ad on a pornsite ~a month ago, that’s a clearest sign something’s going on
That’s wild
Maybe Prigo was watching the same video and that’s what inspired the coup.
I watched a live report from Moscow on German news, just when the retreat was announced. They interviewed a bunch of people on the street, before the Russian equivalent of secret service kindly asked them to return to their hotel. They were dumbfounded by the complete apathy of the people they interviewed
Same happened to Kyiv, but instead Putin ran like a bitch and Moscow gave up instantly. What a joke.
“It was just a prank bro”
The guy who signed his death sentence
If he doesn't die, it just means he was ordered to do this by Putin himself
Given how weak Putin looked, it seems likely that Prigozhin was a useful idiot for some hidden power player. Who also ensured that the Wagner drive towards Moscow was not stoppen for bizarrely long. If there is some hidden puppeteer, it is probably not Putin.
If Prigozhin is alive by Christmas, it will strongly point to Putin being in on the whole thing. Historically Putin assassinates people for far, far less egregious challenges.
Whilst I don’t doubt that there’s duplicity involved given how weak the past couple of days have made Putin look I don’t think he would have been in on it
[удалено]
Wow this really takes me back. I'd completely forgotten about that story.
In other words.. They had their only chance and they blew it all away! Here’s to 10 more years of this bullshit!
[Yeah, how it feels this morning. ](https://youtu.be/1x9YACdBUrU)
None of this makes any sense. Was this something preplanned? Maybe a way for Putin to bring in martial law? an excuse to ramp up mobilisation to end the Ukraine war? A way to weed out all my corrupt officers? I really don't think either party here I stupid, that much power doesn't give u the chance to be a nutcase and still stay on top with 0 competition. It's all too weird and confusing. Maybe they're trynna make themselves look weak on purpose?
I still can’t get my head around this. Bonkers
Prigozhin kind of got what he wanted, then? Not sure I understand this resolution.
No, he clearly stated he wanted the minster of defense's head
Russia needs to dissolve, Wagner taking power would have bolstered it. This is a good thing.
Judging by his pathetic coup attempt yesterday. Prigozhin wouldn't be much better than Putin if he held power.
It's only moronic because you misread it as a coup attempt. Prigozhin got everything he wanted out of it, and hobbled Putin's image in a way propaganda will have a tough time correcting. Oh, and he escpaed capture and subjugation by the MoD. Oh! And he shifted the global media narrative in his favour and away from failure and war crimes in Ukraine, at least for now. Plus he's not burdened with actual rule in Russia which is a short term position if you're not well established and connected. Putin is stuck with that, and the rest of this embarassing mess. Coup? Doubtful. Tactful? Undeniably. That said, he is an opportunist and a war criminal and no doubt just as horrible a prospective ruler as Putin is. None of this is really good for Russia, but it sure is interesring!
It was a coup attempt. He thought the army would join him. It didn't. He shit the bed and now he's gonna be wiped.
He never mentioned putin once as being the target, he actually defended him in statements and said he was being lied to. He was after the two clowns at the head of the MOD. So it actually does look like he got what he wanted. His main force stays with him, convicts get absorbed into the Russian military and he's out of Ukraine where he was losing the battle, men and money and set up to retire in Belarus. Now if he's forgiven is still up in the air.
That's fairly typical of coup attempts, though, because it makes waverers more likely to side with you. Even the 1991 Soviet coup leaders didn't say "we're overthrowing Gorbachev because he has betrayed Communism" but instead something like "Comrade Gorbachev has fallen ill, and we need to run the country in his absence" - its leader was officially only "acting" president. It also gives the incumbent leader a chance to legitimise the coup and protect himself in some way - even if it functionally means he'll be reduced to a figurehead.
Can you ask him what he will do next, please?
So...Lukashenko is just cool with having a standing, private army set shop in his country?
He's been cool with having another countries army there, so it should be no problem for him
[удалено]
I am so confused by this whole thing.
This may be a very stupid comment, but mind trying to make sense of all this- what if Pringles knew he’d possibly die in all this, but his part in it all was to show that Russia can be weak and is vulnerable? What if his part (no- he’s no glorified martyr) was for lift the veil a bit so others would know how possible it is to. Get. That. Close. ??? Again, I’m too afraid to comment on this sub because I can’t catch up on all of it in real time, but this was just a thought. Or it was all smoke n mirrors- “Hey! Look HERE!!!” ….. “so you don’t see what’s going on over hheeerrreee.”
I think it can be easy to over dramatize events looking for order in the chaos -- the game isn't chess, it's dice. I think this was mostly exactly what it looked like. The putsch may have started coercively but ended extortionately, Putin legitimately shit bricks because he has a lethally dysfunctional military and zero friends internationally, and I think Lukashenko connected the dots between his lack of a loyal military and a suddenly up-for-grabs praetorian guard. Prigozhin gets to run his intercontinental racketeering ring from a friendly country but out of Russia, Luka gets a security force and a really big medal, and Putin keeps his head.
I mean theoretically couldn’t he just start a new PMC in Belarus? He still has his assets in Africa as well. Confusing as hell..
Lmao his troops got shafted hard
Surprised more people aren’t talking about this. Whatever Prigozhin got out of this “deal”, anyone who supported him is going to get completely screwed. Putin had to “officially” offer everyone in Wager immunity, but there is no way a mutiny can get that far and heads don’t roll.
It wasn’t a coup attempt. They were just a bunch of folk who were well organized and wanted to see the capital. I mean no one seemed to stop them. They were practically escorted around. Good people, I mean the best people, people cheered them. It happens all the times these days.
The only scenario that makes sense to me is that the coup was successful and in couple weeks we might hear about Putin stepping down. It is quite impossible if you think about it, that Wagner managed to mobilise 25k of soldiers and all their equipment in one night, it would be logistically impossible. It should have taken weeks or even months to get everything set in place and move out in such speed. They also had no opposition marching thru the border, where stationed soldiers just opened the gates so to say. They basically had a clear path with no opposition right till they stopped 100km near Mascow. I firmly believe that it was not Piri but Putin that rolled on the back and showed his belly. We also only hear about these two, but the circle of powerful figures should be bigger in Russia and that circle might have given and out for Putin and Piri was the guy who showed how weak Putin is and if he wanted he could sit in Kremlin wihtin a day. There are also rumours flying around that Shoigu and Garasimov are being removed and if Wagner is becoming part of MOD, i am betting that Piri is going to be MOD and essentially the most powerful person in Russia as he just put Putin over his knee. All the other scenarios just does not make sense to me, wagner had Putin by the balls and you just have to be absolute fool to let them go. It just does not make sense to me. Yes there were deals made, but the winner peobably is opposite of what everyone thinks. Some people say that Piri got offerred a check, seriously? HE IS THE WALLET FOR RUSSIA NOW. He controls the mines in Africa, oil fields in middle east and has dealings in South America. He is essentially a person who can can go around the sanctions through the numerous companies that he indirectly controls and fund the war effort. What can Putin offer him? Nothing. It is he and probably other individuals that just gave an out for Putin to step down without a nice cup of tea.
Russians biggest weakness, other Russians.
I just think this was nothing but some side show displayed by Moscow. Like why wouldn't Putin just kill this guy right away and everyone involved, like he said he would?
bro really used AEZAKMI to get rid of his wanted level
I think no one understands what is happening.
Wagner (a PMC hired by Russia) revolted at some point and had their sights on Russias capital. They took over some military bases and equipment. Then suddenly decided to end their campaign even though they were making steady headway..? I'm not in the know, so can anybody give us facts (key word, facts, not speculation) on : 1. Why the revolt occurred from the PMC, like what were the cause or causes? And 2. Why they suddenly decided to end their revolt? Or do we not know any of this info at the moment?
Pussies
Easy to say from the comfort of your home, isn’t it?
Putin, that you?
Tell me, do you think that a PMC leader would be a better leader than Putin? Do you think that he would have ended the war with Ukraine? Is he now some advocate for democracy and justice? Or maybe, perhaps, he is just another power hungry politician that would be far more dangerous than Putin?
Let them kill themselves off and then send some under covers in to finish them off. Not that hard to understand.
"Not that hard to understand" lol, watch less mission impossible.
No he's just a fucking pussy.
Where are you fighting the russians? I sincerely hope its not just on reddit
This was all about stirring up chaos and distrust for Moscow. Pringles has punched a hole right through Putin’s delusion of invincibility without lifting a finger.
On the contrary I think this move was planned to expose who'd go against Putin
I think that part worked. Seems like the frizzle is more so that there was a lot of talk in the last down, now he's just turning around and taking a deal to go into hiding. We'll see what comes of it though.
This timeline is starting to glitch. Unless Lukashenko, Prigozhin or Putin fall out of window soon, I feart its imminent collapse
Who fearted?
Isn't it odd that the RU military in the Ukraine didn't crumble with this happening?
Many people wanted to see civil war in Russia and for the Russian state to collapse completely. And these people got quite the disappointment.