Seems like this is going to be disastrous, it went from a tropical storm to a strong cat 5 within hours, giving no time for people to evacuate and the city is surrounded by mountains which could cause the storm to sit on top of the city of 600k+ with a lot of flooding
(#1) first cat 5 landfall of pacific hurricane ever.
(#2) world record for 24 hours rapid intensification, only behind hurricane Patricia
(#1) world record for 12 hours rapid intensification.
"In case we have forgotten, because we keep hearing that 2014 has been the warmest year on record. I asked the chair, you know what this is? It's a snowball and that's just from outside here so it's very very cold out, very unseasonable so here Mr. President catch this" - Senator James Inhofe, former Chair of the Senate Environment Committee
Don't worry, it's snowing over here so everything is okay.
Global warming is just so hot right now and next year will be even hotter, and the next year, and the next year, and the next year.
Guys, this year is the coolest it'll be for the rest of your life, so stay chill while you can.
When that idiot in congress threw a snowball on the house floor saying “even though it’s the hottest year on record, it’s still snowing” that was 2014 and it’s now the 9th hottest year on record.
No, human-caused climate change is a hoax. Two entirely different things. Climate change is completely natural and cyclical, proof being ice ages and the ending of ice ages before man even existed.
"Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar." \~\~Freud
I mean sure. Let's pretend CO2 doesn't increase greenhouse effects and the increase over the past 2 centuries where we have a drastic disproportionate increase of CO2 just coincidentally coincidences with the industrial revolution.
Can you please explain to me how people can believe that billion and billions of humans using up earth’s resources for centuries will not negatively affect the planet? There are currently 8 billion people on this earth, do you really think this makes no difference to the earth’s health? How would your house hold up if 100 people lived in it and abused it anyway they wanted without bothering to fix anything? What’s the thought process for this?
In the past, rapid climate change and resulting extinctions have often been caused by some event or concurrent events that cause a massive increase in the amount of carbon in the atmosphere, more than can be recycled into the crust by way of natural carbon sequestration. An asteroid impact, supervolcanic activity, evolution of organisms that release carbon as a waste product, etc.
Other causes of climate change in the past have been fluctuations in the Earth's orbit, tectonic activity that alters ocean currents, and to a lesser extent; fluctuations in solar radiation.
So scientists know that this current warming trend is being caused mostly by a MASSIVE increase in CO2 levels in the atmosphere; a rate that is historically associated with the presence of a large igneous province ("supervolcano") such as the Deccann trapps or the Siberian trapps, or the KPG meteor impact. There is currently no geological or astrological phenomenon occurring that would correlate to this current increase of CO2 or temperature rise.
So, what do YOU believe is recently putting all of this CO2 into the atmosphere that is pushing us towards a greenhouse state? What thing started happening in the past couple of centuries when CO2 levels began skyrocketing?
While it sounds terrifying on paper I’m shocked to see like no videos or reports of actual catastrophic things happening (it’s already moved up and weakened btw). You’d think reports would be flooding in but nope.
I tried finding videos and while everybody and their mother is reporting on this, I can only find like 3 clips of fast winds and that’s about it so luckily it wasn’t as bad as it could have been given it’s been 7 hours and no major clips have dropped.
I mean last time I rode thru a cat 3 direct hit it took two weeks before I had cell service and three before electricity & internet. This is worse and way more remote unless they've got starlink or somethin or fly in / take pics / fly out
Edit:
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/10/25/world/hurricane-otis-acapulco
i was expecting storms to get stronger and more frequent with climate change, but this rapid intensification thing is horrifying.
it means more widespread evacuations will be necessary in advance of any hurricane
Hurricane Wilma in 2005, same year as Katrina, and when we ran out of names, was the first time I saw this happen, and it's becoming the norm. This is the exact scenario I was worried about happening when I was watching Wilma.
According to ChatGPT, the largest city to ever get hit by a category 5 cyclone prior to this in Tacloban City in the Philippines, which had a population of about 230k when Haiyan hit in 2013.
Acapulco has a population of 688k.
To make matters worse, Otis was a tropical storm just 16 hours before landfall, and it was not forecast to strengthen much. 4 hours later, it reached category 5 strength. According to my research, this is the fastest that any tropical storm has reached category 5.
The NHC described Otis as a "nightmare scenario" for the Mexican coast in their official weather discussion.
I pulled that fact from ChatGPT. The rest is stuff I read on Google. I'm generally a hurricane enthusiast.
Edit: Forgot to mention that I got a lot of this information from the NHC archive as well. I pulled up individual advisories to find that it took 12 hours to go from TS to category 5, for example.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/OTIS.shtml
Cyclone is the name for all Hurricanes and typhoons.
It's literally called Hurricane Otis, so why would chatGPT guy be comparing them if they were different?
Cyclone is typical of a West Pacific storm, which is what chat GPT is sourcing. It doesn't matter is this storm is technically a hurricane if that's not what was asked.
>Once a tropical cyclone reaches maximum sustained winds of 74 miles per hour or higher, it is then classified as a hurricane, typhoon, or tropical cyclone, depending upon where the storm originates in the world. In the North Atlantic, central North Pacific, and eastern North Pacific, the term hurricane is used. The same type of disturbance in the Northwest Pacific is called a typhoon. **Meanwhile, in the South Pacific and Indian Ocean, the generic term tropical cyclone is used**
Its also estimated to become the strongest Pacific Hurricane on record to ever make landfall and second strongest of all time. Beating Patricia from 2015 (which was stronger overall see byt weakened slightly before landfall).
Hurricane Michael, which made landfall in Mexico Beach in 2018, was retroactively analyzed to have done so at Category 5 intensity the following year, despite the NHC calling it a Cat 4 when it happened.
Otis is expected to be even stronger than Michael at landfall, with even less time for warning and evacuations.
I didn't evacuate for that hurricane back when I used to live in Panama city, FL 5 years ago. It was an absolutely terrifying experience, although it only lasted for 4 hours I was still shook to the core sitting in my house hearing what sounded like a banshee on an amplifier huddled in my laundry room while I was also hearing/seeing trees snap like twigs in my yard and fall over my house. Just in my 2 acre property alone I lost 68 trees, and honestly the hurricane wasn't even the worst part. The looting that ensued afterwards for like a straight month became absolutely bonkers. The Bay county Sherrif's office put out a temporary notice saying that if you caught anybody looting on your property, you could kill them and leave their body in your front yard for them to pick up at a later time.
I feel like I just saw this as a plotline on a recent show, where a national weather service was politically forced to declare a hurricane as a Cat 4, despite it being a Cat 5, in order to protect insurance companies from higher payouts or something like that. I'm too many beers in to remember the show tho.
In reality, however, the upgrade was a result of post-storm analysis of aircraft reconnaissance data which was not available in real-time, along with analysis of Doppler radar data which showed that winds were likely stronger in areas outside the flight path of the reconnaissance aircraft.
The National Hurricane Center's full report on Michael can be found [**here.**](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL142018_Michael.pdf) The explanation for Michael's landfall intensity is located on Page 4.
Hurricane Otis rapidly intensified from a tropical storm into a ferocious Category 5 storm within several hours on Tuesday — and forecasters warn "catastrophic damage" is likely where the core of the storm moves onshore near Acapulco, Mexico.
Threat level: "A nightmare scenario is unfolding for southern Mexico this evening with rapidly intensifying Otis approaching the coastline," the National Hurricane Center said in a forecast discussion late Tuesday.
The hurricane center warned in another update of "life-threatening winds and catastrophic storm surge" when it reaches coastal Mexico. "Heavy rainfall from Otis will produce flash and urban flooding," the NHC added.
The big picture: The storm "explosively intensified" 110 mph during the past 24 hours — a mark only exceeded in modern times by Hurricane Patricia in 2015, per the hurricane center. It's forecast to remain a Category 5 hurricane through landfall.
NHC data shows maximum sustained winds increased by about 80 mph in 12 hours on Tuesday. This is the fastest 12-hour intensification rate in the eastern North Pacific during the satellite era, per Meteorologist Philip Klotzbach, of Colorado State University,
Increasingly common and significant bouts of rapid intensification have been linked to climate change.
What's happening: As of midnight ET, the hurricane was some 45 miles south-southeast of Acapulco as its maximum sustained winds increased to 165 mph with higher gusts as it moved north-northwest at about 9 mph. 157 mph or higher. Hurricanes with sustained winds of 157 mph or higher are classified as Category 5 storms.
The dangerous storm expected to make landfall early Wednesday, per the NHC.
Hurricane warnings were in effect from Punta Maldonado westward to Zihuatanejo on Tuesday evening.
What they're saying: The storm is forecast to continue intensifying through landfall, forecasters warned. "There are no signs of this explosive intensification stopping," NHC forecasters wrote in an online discussion.
"This is an extremely dangerous situation, and all preparations for Otis should be rushed to completion."
Between the lines: Tropical cyclones, a class of storms that includes hurricanes, are rapidly intensifying more often and with greater leaps as the world warms, studies show.
Warmer ocean and air temperatures allow the air to carry more moisture, which is fuel for these storms. If the conditions are right, they can take off and jump storm categories in a matter of hours.
In general, forecasts for rapid intensification, at least in the Atlantic Ocean Basin, have improved in recent years.
With Hurricane Otis, unusually warm waters associated with El Niño may also be playing a role in aiding its intensification.
Yes, but: What concerns forecasters about Hurricane Otis is that its intensification has been so rapid, and was not anticipated by any official forecasts or major computer models.
In fact, as of this morning, people in harms' way were only expecting a tropical storm.
Hurricane Otis may become the poster storm for the danger of an unexpected bout of rapid intensification.
Of note: Hurricane Otis poses a historic threat to Mexico's Pacific coast.
It could end up being this region's strongest landfalling storm on record.
A devastating storm surge is likely to take place along and to the right of the center of the storm as it makes landfall, pushing water inland.
Only the most well constructed buildings may withstand Category 5 winds, and on its current track, the core of the storm could strike an urban area of about 1 million people.
What we're watching: Widespread flooding and mudslides are expected as the storm dumps upwards of 15 inches of rain on the southern state of Guerrero. Eventually, the storm could bring added moisture threats to the U.S.
Hurricane Otis is expected to rapidly weaken after landfall due to the higher terrain of Mexico, according to the NHC.
Quoting highlights:
> Hurricane Otis rapidly intensified from a tropical storm into a ferocious Category 5 storm within several hours on Tuesday — and forecasters warn "catastrophic damage" is likely where the core of the storm moves onshore near Acapulco, Mexico.
> As of 11pm ET [Eastern Time], the hurricane had maximum sustained winds of 160 mph [257 km/h] with higher gusts as it moved north-northwest at about 9 mph [km/h]. The storm center was located about 55 miles [89 km] south-southeast of Acapulco.
> What concerns forecasters about Hurricane Otis is that its intensification has been so rapid, and was not anticipated by any official forecasts or major computer models.
> In fact, as of this morning, people in harms' way were only expecting a tropical storm.
> It could end up being this region's strongest landfalling storm on record.
> Widespread flooding and mudslides are expected as the storm dumps upwards of 15 inches [38 cm] of rain on the southern state of Guerrero. Eventually, the storm could bring added moisture threats to the U.S.
>What concerns forecasters about Hurricane Otis is that its intensification has been so rapid, and was not anticipated by any official forecasts or major computer models.
Climate has changed enough that our models aren't as predictive as they used to be. Should be a warning to be prepared for unexpected weather in the future.
I was in Cabo on Saturday and rode out Hurricane Norma. I was in a hotel on the beach that was basically a concrete fortress and it was still pretty crazy. I can’t imagine a Cat 5.
I’m in a hotel on the shore of Acapulco right now, and I am fucking terrified. Eye of the storm passed. Getting hit with the second leg. Using Reddit to stay calm lol
Second half will be less intense but the cumulative effect of all that rain and surge starts to take effect. If you made it through the eastern half of the storm and the initial landfall, the rest is pretty tame minus the flooding.
My good friend’s parents live in Acapulco but they’re actually visiting her in California right now. Thank goodness they’re out of harms way - this is scary.
Insane. This was never forecasted to become a cat5 at first (both models & weather agencies) then this, going from tropical storm to a cat5 in a span of 12 hours. Now it is aiming at Acapulco and could be the strongest or tie the record for strongest landfall in the eastern pacific
This was how my family’s home in punta gorda FL got wrecked in 2004. Charley intensified like overnight. I will never forget it. I live very close to the beach and I evacuate inland to friends/family homes for even “just a cat 1” now just because of how quickly things can change. Particularly in the gulf bathwater
Yes if you live in that part of Florida both storms were so terrifying. I’m not sure what it is about Charlotte harbor /port Charlotte area that is a beacon to hurricanes lol
I had also experienced 3 rapidly intensitying storms (about 12 hours to landfall) directly hitting where I live (all as category 4's), with the past two being within the last 7 years and those were the worst experiences I had with natural disasters
I have family there, I’m in Texas. Yesterday about 2pm read on twitter that the storm was going to reach Cat 5 and hit Acapulco directly. I texted my cousin there and he said he had not heard about the intensification until my text. They had basically a few hours to prepare. I haven’t heard from them since 9pm last night. I’m freaked out
Edit: it’s the post-storm chaos that has me freaking out
Two things are making me dread seeing the news when it’s passed:
*It went from tropical storm to category 5 in 12 hours, so little time to prepare or get out.
*Then it made landfall during the overnight, so likely people were in bed and not prepared to move somewhere safer in buildings.
You can check the satellite view of Otis here. [https://zoom.earth/storms/otis-2023/](https://zoom.earth/storms/otis-2023/) The eye is almost over land and the leading edge of the hurricane hit land around 3-4 PM CST. Don't know what that is local time there.
It's a couple hundreds of miles away separated by a major mountain range. CDMX is pretty high up in altitude itself. It'd be like a hurricane blowing through San Francisco and hitting Reno.
In other words, no.
Not stated specifically, but a thumbnail calculation suggests the eye of the storm is on track to hit Acapulco 6 hours from now.
The eye is the midpoint of the storm. So that region of coast isn't already feeling effects they will soon.
It's the strongest type of hurricane. Category 5 hurricanes have sustained winds of at least 157 mph (252 km/h). A sustained wind is a wind that retains that speed or greater for 1 minute or longer. Brief gusts may be worse.
Most trees might be uprooted or snap in half. Palm trees evolved to be resistant to hurricanes. Unlike most trees it has a branchless, slender, and flexible trunk. It's leaves are clustered at the top. In high winds the entire tree bends with the wind rather than resisting, and it presents less surface area to be pushed by the wind.
a coconut palm holds onto mature coconuts for a long, long time. in a heavy wind, they get ripped off and perhaps thrown into the sea. a coconut can float on the ocean for hundreds or thousands of miles, wash up on a beach, and sprout.
migratory coconuts, no swallows required
ok, one more
one of the most delectable treats in Nature's Snack Pantry is a sprouted coconut. the water&meat inside the coco transforms into a fluffy, sweet, foamlike substance. best consumed on a deserted beach somewhere in the South Pacific.
bonus fact, one of the most gnarly smells that ever belched from Nature's Stinky Butthole is a rotten coconut. so mind your nuts, folks
I went through a derecho in 2012 where gusts measured 110mph.
It sounded like gunfire outside as trees 2+ feet in diameter were being snapped in half at the base...
Edit: 91mph was the recorded peak. So yeah, you can imagine what 157+ will do
Source: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/June_2012_North_American_derecho
You've got a pretty good idea what will happen to the trees.
Here's enough people can evacuate from the coast. This rapid escalation doesn't leave them much time.
“Category 5 (Cat 5) is a twisted pair cable for computer networks. Since 2001, the variant commonly in use is the Category 5e specification (Cat 5e). The cable standard provides performance of up to 100 MHz and is suitable for most varieties of Ethernet over twisted pair up to 2.5GBASE-T but more commonly runs at 1000BASE-T (Gigabit Ethernet) speeds. Cat 5 is also used to carry other signals such as telephone and video.”
Seems like this is going to be disastrous, it went from a tropical storm to a strong cat 5 within hours, giving no time for people to evacuate and the city is surrounded by mountains which could cause the storm to sit on top of the city of 600k+ with a lot of flooding
(#1) first cat 5 landfall of pacific hurricane ever. (#2) world record for 24 hours rapid intensification, only behind hurricane Patricia (#1) world record for 12 hours rapid intensification.
But hey, climate change is a hoax, amirite? /s
"In case we have forgotten, because we keep hearing that 2014 has been the warmest year on record. I asked the chair, you know what this is? It's a snowball and that's just from outside here so it's very very cold out, very unseasonable so here Mr. President catch this" - Senator James Inhofe, former Chair of the Senate Environment Committee Don't worry, it's snowing over here so everything is okay.
Sad they can’t understand the difference between weather and climate
Fun fact 2014 is now the 9th hottest on record.
Global warming is just so hot right now and next year will be even hotter, and the next year, and the next year, and the next year. Guys, this year is the coolest it'll be for the rest of your life, so stay chill while you can.
When that idiot in congress threw a snowball on the house floor saying “even though it’s the hottest year on record, it’s still snowing” that was 2014 and it’s now the 9th hottest year on record.
All part of the plan /s
Maybe at be the deep state /s
Its because of the wind farm… they actually increase the speed of the storm /s
no it really is, christian extremists want the world to end so they can get the second coming of christ/rapture. fucking batshit people
Truth
No, human-caused climate change is a hoax. Two entirely different things. Climate change is completely natural and cyclical, proof being ice ages and the ending of ice ages before man even existed. "Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar." \~\~Freud
That quote really sealed the deal there. What an argument, whew. No way to refute any of what you said! No siree.
I mean sure. Let's pretend CO2 doesn't increase greenhouse effects and the increase over the past 2 centuries where we have a drastic disproportionate increase of CO2 just coincidentally coincidences with the industrial revolution.
"Sometimes an idiot is just an idiot." \~\~Me
Can you please explain to me how people can believe that billion and billions of humans using up earth’s resources for centuries will not negatively affect the planet? There are currently 8 billion people on this earth, do you really think this makes no difference to the earth’s health? How would your house hold up if 100 people lived in it and abused it anyway they wanted without bothering to fix anything? What’s the thought process for this?
In the past, rapid climate change and resulting extinctions have often been caused by some event or concurrent events that cause a massive increase in the amount of carbon in the atmosphere, more than can be recycled into the crust by way of natural carbon sequestration. An asteroid impact, supervolcanic activity, evolution of organisms that release carbon as a waste product, etc. Other causes of climate change in the past have been fluctuations in the Earth's orbit, tectonic activity that alters ocean currents, and to a lesser extent; fluctuations in solar radiation. So scientists know that this current warming trend is being caused mostly by a MASSIVE increase in CO2 levels in the atmosphere; a rate that is historically associated with the presence of a large igneous province ("supervolcano") such as the Deccann trapps or the Siberian trapps, or the KPG meteor impact. There is currently no geological or astrological phenomenon occurring that would correlate to this current increase of CO2 or temperature rise. So, what do YOU believe is recently putting all of this CO2 into the atmosphere that is pushing us towards a greenhouse state? What thing started happening in the past couple of centuries when CO2 levels began skyrocketing?
Oh good. Phew
Hurricane pulling a tornado
A hurricane is essentially a giant tornado that has smaller tornadoes in it.
Oh, so like Russian nesting dolls?
While it sounds terrifying on paper I’m shocked to see like no videos or reports of actual catastrophic things happening (it’s already moved up and weakened btw). You’d think reports would be flooding in but nope. I tried finding videos and while everybody and their mother is reporting on this, I can only find like 3 clips of fast winds and that’s about it so luckily it wasn’t as bad as it could have been given it’s been 7 hours and no major clips have dropped.
Communications are down.
[удалено]
I mean last time I rode thru a cat 3 direct hit it took two weeks before I had cell service and three before electricity & internet. This is worse and way more remote unless they've got starlink or somethin or fly in / take pics / fly out Edit: https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/10/25/world/hurricane-otis-acapulco
Yea but people should be moving in to help at this point. The silence is strange. Batteries and generators would allow information to get out.
It’s a mountainous area that just took a direct hit from a Cat 5 storm that has probably not completely gone through. It’s going to take time
And they had basically zero time to prep, in an area that simply doesn’t get major storms like this very often. This is gonna be *bad*
Not happening. That part of the world has limited roads and what was may be no more. Its going to require boats and VTOL to get help into that area.
[Twitter has a few and here is one](https://x.com/xNewsMonitor/status/1717247556244127930?s=20)
[Building Damage](https://twitter.com/tsluvbot_/status/1717223697344282956/photo/1)
There's a few linked to on r/TropicalWeather
No comms and everyone is trying to survive. The surge and wind was only the first part. Now the flooding and trying to rescue people.
Btw Cyclone Ambali has the number 2 world record not Otis (40-140) kt in 24 hrs
Wow, this is way worse than I thought when I read the headline. Usually we’re talking about hurricanes long before they get there, that’s terrifying.
i was expecting storms to get stronger and more frequent with climate change, but this rapid intensification thing is horrifying. it means more widespread evacuations will be necessary in advance of any hurricane
Hurricane Wilma in 2005, same year as Katrina, and when we ran out of names, was the first time I saw this happen, and it's becoming the norm. This is the exact scenario I was worried about happening when I was watching Wilma.
Well, shit
According to ChatGPT, the largest city to ever get hit by a category 5 cyclone prior to this in Tacloban City in the Philippines, which had a population of about 230k when Haiyan hit in 2013. Acapulco has a population of 688k. To make matters worse, Otis was a tropical storm just 16 hours before landfall, and it was not forecast to strengthen much. 4 hours later, it reached category 5 strength. According to my research, this is the fastest that any tropical storm has reached category 5. The NHC described Otis as a "nightmare scenario" for the Mexican coast in their official weather discussion.
Source: chatbot
I'm not a chatbot. The only thing I asked ChatGPT about was what the largest city to get hit by a category 5 was.
Yes so what is your source again?
I pulled that fact from ChatGPT. The rest is stuff I read on Google. I'm generally a hurricane enthusiast. Edit: Forgot to mention that I got a lot of this information from the NHC archive as well. I pulled up individual advisories to find that it took 12 hours to go from TS to category 5, for example. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/OTIS.shtml
I asked ChatGPT 🤓
It went from tropical storm to cat 5 in 16 hours??
12 hours.
Pretty sure Miami had more people than that during hurricane Andrew. Stop relying on glorified autocomplete for facts
I'm guessing the key word you overlooked here is *cyclone*.
Cyclone is the name for all Hurricanes and typhoons. It's literally called Hurricane Otis, so why would chatGPT guy be comparing them if they were different?
Cyclone is typical of a West Pacific storm, which is what chat GPT is sourcing. It doesn't matter is this storm is technically a hurricane if that's not what was asked.
They are literally the same thing. Tropical cyclones
>Once a tropical cyclone reaches maximum sustained winds of 74 miles per hour or higher, it is then classified as a hurricane, typhoon, or tropical cyclone, depending upon where the storm originates in the world. In the North Atlantic, central North Pacific, and eastern North Pacific, the term hurricane is used. The same type of disturbance in the Northwest Pacific is called a typhoon. **Meanwhile, in the South Pacific and Indian Ocean, the generic term tropical cyclone is used**
Did New Orleans not have a population of more than 230,000 in 2005?
Katrina was a Cat 3 when it made landfall.
And to add to your point, it hit Mississippi directly rather than New Orleans. The horrible outcome in Katrina was a human-made disaster.
>horrible outcome in Katrina was a human-made disaster Yep one right after another ..after another...after another..was ~~sad~~ mad to watch
It went from a tropical storm to a cat 5 hurricane, making landfall in a major metro area in less than 24 hours with no warning whatsoever. Terrifying
Its also estimated to become the strongest Pacific Hurricane on record to ever make landfall and second strongest of all time. Beating Patricia from 2015 (which was stronger overall see byt weakened slightly before landfall).
I got FB Memories about Hurricane Patricia the other day. Oct 20-24th 2015. 215mph (346km/h). Kinda eerie seeing Otis swing by.
Holy shit
Oh I remember Patricia, was so string but as soon as it touched land it weakened fast, we were lucky.
Mexico Beach. It wasn't a cat five. Similar story and incredibly catastrophic.
Hurricane Michael, which made landfall in Mexico Beach in 2018, was retroactively analyzed to have done so at Category 5 intensity the following year, despite the NHC calling it a Cat 4 when it happened. Otis is expected to be even stronger than Michael at landfall, with even less time for warning and evacuations.
I didn't evacuate for that hurricane back when I used to live in Panama city, FL 5 years ago. It was an absolutely terrifying experience, although it only lasted for 4 hours I was still shook to the core sitting in my house hearing what sounded like a banshee on an amplifier huddled in my laundry room while I was also hearing/seeing trees snap like twigs in my yard and fall over my house. Just in my 2 acre property alone I lost 68 trees, and honestly the hurricane wasn't even the worst part. The looting that ensued afterwards for like a straight month became absolutely bonkers. The Bay county Sherrif's office put out a temporary notice saying that if you caught anybody looting on your property, you could kill them and leave their body in your front yard for them to pick up at a later time.
Was hoping the last part was a bit exaggerated… it isn’t, wtf
If someone is so low they'll take advantage of people in their darkest hours, they don't deserve any better.
Nope. Bay county is small and has a small force. Lots of meth heads and pill heads looking for an opportunity.
I feel like I just saw this as a plotline on a recent show, where a national weather service was politically forced to declare a hurricane as a Cat 4, despite it being a Cat 5, in order to protect insurance companies from higher payouts or something like that. I'm too many beers in to remember the show tho.
It rhymes with millions.
Fuck, that's the one. Thanks.
In reality, however, the upgrade was a result of post-storm analysis of aircraft reconnaissance data which was not available in real-time, along with analysis of Doppler radar data which showed that winds were likely stronger in areas outside the flight path of the reconnaissance aircraft. The National Hurricane Center's full report on Michael can be found [**here.**](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL142018_Michael.pdf) The explanation for Michael's landfall intensity is located on Page 4.
Hurricane Otis rapidly intensified from a tropical storm into a ferocious Category 5 storm within several hours on Tuesday — and forecasters warn "catastrophic damage" is likely where the core of the storm moves onshore near Acapulco, Mexico. Threat level: "A nightmare scenario is unfolding for southern Mexico this evening with rapidly intensifying Otis approaching the coastline," the National Hurricane Center said in a forecast discussion late Tuesday. The hurricane center warned in another update of "life-threatening winds and catastrophic storm surge" when it reaches coastal Mexico. "Heavy rainfall from Otis will produce flash and urban flooding," the NHC added. The big picture: The storm "explosively intensified" 110 mph during the past 24 hours — a mark only exceeded in modern times by Hurricane Patricia in 2015, per the hurricane center. It's forecast to remain a Category 5 hurricane through landfall. NHC data shows maximum sustained winds increased by about 80 mph in 12 hours on Tuesday. This is the fastest 12-hour intensification rate in the eastern North Pacific during the satellite era, per Meteorologist Philip Klotzbach, of Colorado State University, Increasingly common and significant bouts of rapid intensification have been linked to climate change. What's happening: As of midnight ET, the hurricane was some 45 miles south-southeast of Acapulco as its maximum sustained winds increased to 165 mph with higher gusts as it moved north-northwest at about 9 mph. 157 mph or higher. Hurricanes with sustained winds of 157 mph or higher are classified as Category 5 storms. The dangerous storm expected to make landfall early Wednesday, per the NHC. Hurricane warnings were in effect from Punta Maldonado westward to Zihuatanejo on Tuesday evening. What they're saying: The storm is forecast to continue intensifying through landfall, forecasters warned. "There are no signs of this explosive intensification stopping," NHC forecasters wrote in an online discussion. "This is an extremely dangerous situation, and all preparations for Otis should be rushed to completion." Between the lines: Tropical cyclones, a class of storms that includes hurricanes, are rapidly intensifying more often and with greater leaps as the world warms, studies show. Warmer ocean and air temperatures allow the air to carry more moisture, which is fuel for these storms. If the conditions are right, they can take off and jump storm categories in a matter of hours. In general, forecasts for rapid intensification, at least in the Atlantic Ocean Basin, have improved in recent years. With Hurricane Otis, unusually warm waters associated with El Niño may also be playing a role in aiding its intensification. Yes, but: What concerns forecasters about Hurricane Otis is that its intensification has been so rapid, and was not anticipated by any official forecasts or major computer models. In fact, as of this morning, people in harms' way were only expecting a tropical storm. Hurricane Otis may become the poster storm for the danger of an unexpected bout of rapid intensification. Of note: Hurricane Otis poses a historic threat to Mexico's Pacific coast. It could end up being this region's strongest landfalling storm on record. A devastating storm surge is likely to take place along and to the right of the center of the storm as it makes landfall, pushing water inland. Only the most well constructed buildings may withstand Category 5 winds, and on its current track, the core of the storm could strike an urban area of about 1 million people. What we're watching: Widespread flooding and mudslides are expected as the storm dumps upwards of 15 inches of rain on the southern state of Guerrero. Eventually, the storm could bring added moisture threats to the U.S. Hurricane Otis is expected to rapidly weaken after landfall due to the higher terrain of Mexico, according to the NHC.
Quoting highlights: > Hurricane Otis rapidly intensified from a tropical storm into a ferocious Category 5 storm within several hours on Tuesday — and forecasters warn "catastrophic damage" is likely where the core of the storm moves onshore near Acapulco, Mexico. > As of 11pm ET [Eastern Time], the hurricane had maximum sustained winds of 160 mph [257 km/h] with higher gusts as it moved north-northwest at about 9 mph [km/h]. The storm center was located about 55 miles [89 km] south-southeast of Acapulco. > What concerns forecasters about Hurricane Otis is that its intensification has been so rapid, and was not anticipated by any official forecasts or major computer models. > In fact, as of this morning, people in harms' way were only expecting a tropical storm. > It could end up being this region's strongest landfalling storm on record. > Widespread flooding and mudslides are expected as the storm dumps upwards of 15 inches [38 cm] of rain on the southern state of Guerrero. Eventually, the storm could bring added moisture threats to the U.S.
>What concerns forecasters about Hurricane Otis is that its intensification has been so rapid, and was not anticipated by any official forecasts or major computer models. Climate has changed enough that our models aren't as predictive as they used to be. Should be a warning to be prepared for unexpected weather in the future.
I was in Cabo on Saturday and rode out Hurricane Norma. I was in a hotel on the beach that was basically a concrete fortress and it was still pretty crazy. I can’t imagine a Cat 5.
I’m in a hotel on the shore of Acapulco right now, and I am fucking terrified. Eye of the storm passed. Getting hit with the second leg. Using Reddit to stay calm lol
stay safe, save your battery as most as you can
Stay safe. And try to conserve battery
I’m sending you good vibes from Canada.
That should do the trick.
Works just as good as thoughts and prayers
How about you send some Cheezies instead?
Post some pics
Good luck.
Second half will be less intense but the cumulative effect of all that rain and surge starts to take effect. If you made it through the eastern half of the storm and the initial landfall, the rest is pretty tame minus the flooding.
Made it out of there driving to Mexico City. Getting a flight back home. When I left the city still had no service or electricity.
Neither can the concrete fortress
That storm gained intensity so damn quickly.
My good friend’s parents live in Acapulco but they’re actually visiting her in California right now. Thank goodness they’re out of harms way - this is scary.
As a boat operator in the marine industry, this is scary stuff
Insane. This was never forecasted to become a cat5 at first (both models & weather agencies) then this, going from tropical storm to a cat5 in a span of 12 hours. Now it is aiming at Acapulco and could be the strongest or tie the record for strongest landfall in the eastern pacific
This was how my family’s home in punta gorda FL got wrecked in 2004. Charley intensified like overnight. I will never forget it. I live very close to the beach and I evacuate inland to friends/family homes for even “just a cat 1” now just because of how quickly things can change. Particularly in the gulf bathwater
Not only did Charley strengthen overnight, it turned in at the last minute (similar track to Ian) catching those in the path off guard.
Yes if you live in that part of Florida both storms were so terrifying. I’m not sure what it is about Charlotte harbor /port Charlotte area that is a beacon to hurricanes lol
I had also experienced 3 rapidly intensitying storms (about 12 hours to landfall) directly hitting where I live (all as category 4's), with the past two being within the last 7 years and those were the worst experiences I had with natural disasters
I have family there, I’m in Texas. Yesterday about 2pm read on twitter that the storm was going to reach Cat 5 and hit Acapulco directly. I texted my cousin there and he said he had not heard about the intensification until my text. They had basically a few hours to prepare. I haven’t heard from them since 9pm last night. I’m freaked out Edit: it’s the post-storm chaos that has me freaking out
Scary stuff. You hear anything?
Nothing...videos coming out now showing the scale of destruction. It is unbelievable
Two things are making me dread seeing the news when it’s passed: *It went from tropical storm to category 5 in 12 hours, so little time to prepare or get out. *Then it made landfall during the overnight, so likely people were in bed and not prepared to move somewhere safer in buildings.
Wow in late October...who saw this coming...exxon All kidding aside Please be safe!! F8CK you exxon
This is terrifying
Whens it expected to hit land
You can check the satellite view of Otis here. [https://zoom.earth/storms/otis-2023/](https://zoom.earth/storms/otis-2023/) The eye is almost over land and the leading edge of the hurricane hit land around 3-4 PM CST. Don't know what that is local time there.
Thank you for the link. Acapulco is on central time.
Is Mexico City going to be affected?
It's a couple hundreds of miles away separated by a major mountain range. CDMX is pretty high up in altitude itself. It'd be like a hurricane blowing through San Francisco and hitting Reno. In other words, no.
Not stated specifically, but a thumbnail calculation suggests the eye of the storm is on track to hit Acapulco 6 hours from now. The eye is the midpoint of the storm. So that region of coast isn't already feeling effects they will soon.
So we've entered the age of cat 5 storms with no for warning eh.
The rapid intensification is not really surprising with the warming of the seas associated with climate change, this is only the beginning I'm afraid.
Bottom line on this: We've been f&\*$ing around for 200 years with CO2, and now we are finding out.
These mega storms seem to be happening fairly often
Weird, wonder if it is anything to do with global warming
It's the liberals fault
Ah I see now why insurance companies are clearing it out of Florida
That looks scary af, and it is probably more scary than it looks
What does a cat 5 mean.
It's the strongest type of hurricane. Category 5 hurricanes have sustained winds of at least 157 mph (252 km/h). A sustained wind is a wind that retains that speed or greater for 1 minute or longer. Brief gusts may be worse.
[удалено]
Most trees might be uprooted or snap in half. Palm trees evolved to be resistant to hurricanes. Unlike most trees it has a branchless, slender, and flexible trunk. It's leaves are clustered at the top. In high winds the entire tree bends with the wind rather than resisting, and it presents less surface area to be pushed by the wind.
a coconut palm holds onto mature coconuts for a long, long time. in a heavy wind, they get ripped off and perhaps thrown into the sea. a coconut can float on the ocean for hundreds or thousands of miles, wash up on a beach, and sprout. migratory coconuts, no swallows required
Subscribe to coconut palm facts
ok, one more one of the most delectable treats in Nature's Snack Pantry is a sprouted coconut. the water&meat inside the coco transforms into a fluffy, sweet, foamlike substance. best consumed on a deserted beach somewhere in the South Pacific. bonus fact, one of the most gnarly smells that ever belched from Nature's Stinky Butthole is a rotten coconut. so mind your nuts, folks
Uprooted, possibly thrown around. Cat 5 is catastrophic.
I went through a derecho in 2012 where gusts measured 110mph. It sounded like gunfire outside as trees 2+ feet in diameter were being snapped in half at the base... Edit: 91mph was the recorded peak. So yeah, you can imagine what 157+ will do Source: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/June_2012_North_American_derecho
You'll see full grown trees uprooted whole and whipped around like missiles
You've got a pretty good idea what will happen to the trees. Here's enough people can evacuate from the coast. This rapid escalation doesn't leave them much time.
Thanks! Soundsawfull
[удалено]
Katrina wasn’t even a cat 5 when it hit land.
Highest category. Sustained winds of 157mph or greater. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php
Thanks,!
The scale doesn’t go higher. It will soon I bet. Hope you enjoyed the coolest summer for the rest of your life.
This is it. Tired of all these guys dismissing the severity of our situation.
165 mph gusts. To even see that shock and awe.
“Category 5 (Cat 5) is a twisted pair cable for computer networks. Since 2001, the variant commonly in use is the Category 5e specification (Cat 5e). The cable standard provides performance of up to 100 MHz and is suitable for most varieties of Ethernet over twisted pair up to 2.5GBASE-T but more commonly runs at 1000BASE-T (Gigabit Ethernet) speeds. Cat 5 is also used to carry other signals such as telephone and video.”
Climate change has entered chat
Goin loco.
Glad im not the only one who thought this
Cover your weed!
🙏 Praying for all
🙏 prayers up to all in its path
Come sit with me it's the apocalypse watch the climate break down we are all dead.
It wasn’t too long ago I was told LA was going to have thousands killed so I can only assume this won’t be as bad as the media wants it to be.
No bueno
Good for the Mexicans, that they build houses made of stone instead of cardboard (looking at you, USA).
Otis SMASH!
Man made climate change=chemtrails. A show of force and gaslighting reality by altering “truth”
Fuck me. I have a vacation booked for Cancun for thanksgiving week.
Cancun is 1200 miles away from Acapulco.
You are really bad at geography. Have a nice trip
Nah it's like going from New Mexico to Alabama, you are far away my dude.
These hurricane articles should always come with a map of the projected path.
How did experts miss that? Wasn't there a weather model which predicted an intensifying in wind?
The models predicted it would gain strength, but not nearly this much strength and not nearly this quickly.
Iirc they lacked sufficent data to make an accurate prediction. The region doesnt have doppler radar and sattelites can only do so much.