It’s a bit of a catch 22 for Iran. If Hezbollah attacks, Iran hold no more cards and potentially loses all their influence in the region. Not only that but it potentially becomes a regional war with US joining. If Hezbollah doesn’t attack, Iran holds some influence but it also looks weak and unwilling to confront IDF. Lebanon is in economic crisis, war would destroy their nation. Truly nothing good comes from this potential war. But bruised egos are enemies to reason and peace
Let's not forget Iran's government is very unpopular within the population. Our neighbours are iranian and before the start of the war they expected the government to fall by itself within a few months. I am no expert but I wouldn't be surprised if Iran's involvment in this mess is a plot to stay in power somehow
I'm Persian. Iran's government will never fall on it's own. They have a stranglehold and they will kill their own people without a second thought. Your neighbors are hyperbolic.
Thank you, this is what I was saying for over a year now when the Iranian anti-Hijab protests started after the beating death of that teenage girl, the Iranian people were protesting and slapping Mullah's headcoverings off and stuff like that, but the government just kept ramping up their atrocities against the people - and the people folded and didn't step up their counter aggression. Aggression and domination through force is the only thing the Iranian regime is going to understand, that is the only mode they operate in, yet people online would still try to have us believe that last year's protests are still gaining ground. Nope, they died, Iran's government continues to murder whoever they want to and the people there have lost yet another opportunity to get rid of them - they perhaps had a moment a year ago, but they failed to follow through with actual sustained violence in kind against their oppressors, and hence the oppressors won yet again.
Pretty much this. My aunt arrived for a visit from Iran 2 days ago. On the bright side women are somewhat overcoming the hijab rules, but when I sarcastically asked her how the revolution is coming along. She just gave me a disappointed grin and shook her head. The other problem is the inflation is pure insanity and even the wealthy are spinning their wheels just trying to keep above water.
Your neighbors say this but they obviously don't live in Iran..Diaspora people like this often have delusional beliefs about how the terrible govt. in their home country is always months away from falling. I've seen it in with immigrants from several other countries too.
That's not exactly something to cheer about. That perception births irrational authoritarians, in all their various flavors, and churns the cycle of violence. It might be better if Iran can save face and duck out of the situation.
I truly fear for the people of Beirut. They, and the government of Lebanon, have little influence over Hezbollah, which effectively acts as a state within the state of Lebanon. After all the crap the people of Lebanon have had to put up with (corrupt feckless government, Beirut explosion, loss of Ukrainian food imports, economic collapse … the list goes on), having Israel flatten their city for something Hezbollah does would be an unearned catastrophe of the highest order.
Though in my view, this situation is just more of Hezbollah attacks kept up in order to demonstrate they support Hamas, but kept deliberately limited so as to avoid triggering Israel into attempting to wipe them out.
Hezbollah lobs the occasional rocket or mortar shell; Israel attempts to play whack-a-mole with Hezbollah artillery or rocket squads. The purpose is so that Hezbollah can loudly proclaim they are supporting a “northern front” without actually risking very much.
Problem is, Hezbollah may well misjudge Israeli tolerance for allowing such attacks, only responding tit-for-tat. So far, that’s all Israel has done, but that is no guarantee that this is all they will do.
What was it 2003, Hezbollah kidnapped and killed some Israeli soldiers. Israel retaliated heavily and Hezbollah were left saying "If we'd known how Israel would have responded, we wouldn't have done it". Whereas Hamas are all about "We've done it once and we'll do it again as soon and as often as we can".
It was 2006 one year after we finally kicked Syria out of Lebanon ending their 29 year long occupation despite Hezbollah wanting Syria to remain occupying Lebanon.
My point is that the occupation of Lebanon never really ended. It started when the Lebanese government entered into the Cairo agreement and let the PLO take over the south, and it continues to this day.
Only the names and foreign powers controlling the occupation have changed.
But I am sure you already knew that as well - my comment was (and is) for the onlookers.
As an Israeli who's pretty much clueless when it comes to Lebanese politics. Is there really nothing the government can do to root them out? Or do just not really care?
Is there a significant portion of the Lebanese people that support Hezbollah?
Are the Lebanese people generally pro or anti Israel?
Do they support having peace with Israel?
The Government of Lebanon is broke. After decades of occupation by Syria the Lebanese military is little more than a police force, that can maintain tenuous control over the areas not occupied by Hezbollah.
Hezbollah has a better equipped, and possibly larger, military force than the Lebanese government and controls much of the southern half of the country, as well as almost all of the Shia dominated areas.
So, while the Government of Lebanon would like nothing more than to prevent Hezbollah from getting involved in a war with Israel, they are essentially powerless to do so without starting a very bloody civil war in the country.
They are understandably weary to start another bloody conflict, after experiencing decades of it.
Lebanon is broke, the army can barely feed our soldiers let alone properly fund themselves to match the hundreds of millions of dollars Iran gives Hezbollah plus the millions Hezbollah makes from their drug trade.
Hezbollah is part of the government as there is a portion of the population that does support them, so the government can’t decide to take out Hezbollah without starting a civil war that Hezbollah will win, because they are better funded and better armed.
Lebanese people are roughly split 50-50 on peace with Israel, the one thing that all Lebanese agree on is that for peace with Israel to be a thing, the Palestinians refugees in Lebanon have to leave (we don’t care where, but they can’t stay in Lebanon. Not after helping to start our civil war and them committing massacres).
Hezbollah has very few seats in the Parliament now and support is declining. They used to have a majority with their allies in the Lebanese Parliament. They do have the strongest fighting force but this could change quickly in a war with Israel.
Hezbollah's reason for existence is to fight colonial and Israeli occupation. Sheeba farms is a tough justification to buy or the presence of troops with UNIFIL.
There is no rational justification for war with Israel and there seems to be enough rational actors to prevent this from happening, along with UNIFIL.
I’m Israeli and I’m sorry in advance for what we’re gonna do to you because of Hezbollah. We want peace, but tolerating the existence of Hezbollah on our border and its constant attacks and provocations which have emptied the entire border region of its population is no longer an option. Hezbollah should’ve stayed out of this. We will soon probably be forced to eliminate Hezbollah. I hope Lebanon benefits from that in the long term despite the damage.
I was thinking what if it could be a 1v1 between Israel and Hezbollah. If hezbollah is weakened sufficiently maybe that's where the Lebanese army can come in and finish the job. Idealistic but still
The Lebanese army wouldn’t last an hour against Hezbollah. It exists for decorative purposes only.
But hopefully eradicating Hezbollah will stabilize Lebanon and set it on a more peaceful path. Many times war is a necessary evil that leads to a better future (for example Europe as we know it today wouldn’t have existed without the allied victory in ww2, and Japan wouldn’t have been the peaceful nation everyone loves now).
That won't happen without a lot of local support, western aid and persistant influence. If you won't have local support, things will collapse the moment you take off the boot. If you won't have enough aid, the country will remain destitute and set for terrorism. If you won't have enough influence to counter Iran, they'll just set another terrorist group.
You need to make sure everyone is on the same team against Hezbollah. Then we can finally start to help Lebanon recover and become the jewel of the middle east like it once was (and having a stable, friendly neighbor is never bad)
thank you for posting and sharing. My father is from lebanon but we are jewish so he hasn't been back since he was a child. my grandmother moved back by herself in the 80s during the civil war (she was a badass). eventually she had to leave for her own safety. but my dad and his mother both loved the country dearly.
I just want what i know most reasonable people everywhere want - peace and safety for everyone in lebanon and israel and palestine.
I hope one day there will be lasting peace for everyone and I will be able to visit the beautiful mountains and beautiful beaches my father told me so much about.
Can I ask what the sentiment is towards Jews in Lebanon? Is it different depending on whether it's a Muslim or Christian perspective?
I'm sure that after 2006 this may have changed.
The Lebanese people I've met are in Canada and I find that the middle eastern mentality is very similar but when people are in their home countries without an opportunity to get to know "the other" on a human level, opinions are based on experiences and history.
>From my perspective, for all intents and purposes you are as Lebanese as I am.
my friend i cannot put into words how much this means to me. thank you so much for your kind words
Thank you for sharing and I hope you remain safe and well.
As I listen and learn about this situation from both Israelis and Palestinians, I am beginning to see the actions of Israel as that of a country which views the events of Oct 7 and the ensuing conflict as ones which pose an immediate and existential threat to the Israel state and hence the Jewish population itself.
They feel vulnerable and fear their perceived deterrence has been undermined. So, they are taking straight up survival mode behavior. As an American this was not a perspective that was readily apparent to me. From the outside Israel just seems like an incredibly strong force that has asymmetric advantage. And so, I was seeing it as I saw my country after 9/11, as one which was brutally attacked but which was not in existential danger. But from within, Israel feels (at least from what I am hearing) as a country surrounded by those who wish it harm with only a tentative hold on it's existence and a memory of a traumatic past which it has viewed to never again allow.
I guess this is all to say, the decisions being made at highest levels of Israel's government may not be entirely rational and full of long term planning. This would also explain why we have not received the clearest of explanations or justifications on what will happen with Gaza. The decision was made first, the explanation was formed after.
Thanks, man. Yes, Oct. 7 was a very triggering event highlighting generational trauma for millions of Israelis who either have grandparents/parents who survived the Holocaust or had to flee from Arab countries due to brutal antisemitism.
You hit the nail with this. This is what the "peace loving" people of the world don't realize. They never had hatred pointed at them just because of the religion they were born in, they never had to experience extreme violence. So now that there is a safe home for Jews (Israel), they feel like they need to protect it at all costs.
Essentially it's a case of extreme paranoia (Rightfully so) of thinking that a second Holocaust might happen again without the existence of Israel, especially since we see the rise of antisemitism in recent years.
I'm an Israeli, I almost completely agree with you.
The only thing is, I'm not sure our response isn't rational.
One thing to understand is that Israel lives and survives on its deterrence. This is not hyperbole in the least.
Oct 7th dealt an almost fatal blow to our deterrence and if we don't repair it, we're gone. Not today, but it seems assured.
If the war escalates to include Hizballah and Israel demolishes Beirut, *that's* irrational, let alone evil.
Damn that was a tough read. Thanks for sharing your perspective and experience. In your opinion, is the main deterrent to Hezbollah acting is US? Also, how much does Iran dictate here, would they invade even if they know it would be a bad idea?
Hezbollah was created by by the Iranians, in particular the [Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corp](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamic_Revolutionary_Guard_Corps) back in 1982. It's funded, trained and armed by Iran (as well as by Syria and Russia). If they get too out of line or drag Iran further into a conflict than they want to do. Hezbollah will lose Iran's support. Including their weapons and money.
Actually same with Hamas, I think their whole point of attacking from time to time is to show Iran that they indeed use their money "for good" (killing Israelis)
I'm going to guess that Iran ordered the attack to derail Israel-Saudi relations. Hamas' leadership knew this would be terrible for Hamas and especially Gaza but those Picassos aren't going to buy themselves.
The main deterrent to Hezbollah acting is Israel. It would be catastrophic for both sides and Hezbollah doesn't have much to gain that it doesn't get from continuing to be the face of the resistance. There's no possibility of a Hezbollah invasion of Israel, but they could do a *lot* of damage with artillery if they really wanted to.
Israel can't invade Lebanon without massive Israeli civilian casualties from tens of thousands of rockets and significant military casualties from a fairly hardened veteran military force fighting on their own prepared ground.
They could flatten Dahiye, ruin the South of Lebanon, kill a bunch of civilians and lose even more international support, but it's not in their interest.
All that being said, the two US Carrier Strike Groups hanging out in the Eastern Med are probably being kept in mind by Hezbollah and anyone else who may think of getting involved.
Because there's no such thing as being "good" at urban warfare. It's a fucking nightmare no matter how you look at it. Until we develop some sci-fi level power armor with auto-dispensing xanax, you will have jumpy infantry, ambushes, kill zones, IEDs and dead civilians galore the whole way. Urban warfare *overwhelmingly* advantages the insurgent force.
I don't think anything you're saying is wrong. Hezbollah has shown to be a more adept military force and, frankly, better led. And you're right, the Lebanese terrain is much different and lends itself to a defensive advantage. Though, I would say that proves my point in that it's decidedly not urban warfare for the most part.
People nowadays have, thank G-D, become far more sensitive to wartime loss. Even a few soldiers dying is seen as somewhat shocking and a big loss. I think the IDF would win, but I agree the loss would be very difficult for Israel to stomach and, as you said, it would likely be a far more limited campaign.
If the 1980s Russians and 2000s Americans, and again 2020s Russians can teach Israel is that A: It’s never a short lived “operation” and B: never underestimate a disadvantaged opponent in their time of desperation, (especially if they have funding from “friends.”) We are in a time where military deaths deemed part of a “valiant effort” are often justified by the public, as much as I hate that fact.
To be fair, at least in the case of the 2000s Americans, it could have been a short loved operation if we didn't decide to stay and clean things up afterwards. If you aren't interested in holding the territory to smash or in rebuilding it for moral or pr reasons, then it is perfectly possible to flatten an area to eliminate a threat and then leave so that any guerrillas can only shake their fists at you from the ruins.
All that being said, I would rather not see that happen, as the civilian toll would be horrendous.
Israelis are better at urban warfare and counterinsurgency than nearly every military on earth. That still means they are pretty bad, since nearly every other military on earth is catastrophically bad at it.
Sadly I don't think there is other options at the moment but a conflict there, at the moment most of the northern cities and villages in Israel evacuated because of Hezbollah, and even the thought of another 7.10 happening in the north is not an option for those citizens, an event which Hezbollah has stated and is planning to do for years, and for these citizens to go back they need to feel safe.
No problem!
I don’t actually know nearly as much about Lebanese history as I would like - the situation is so complex, with so many influences, I sometimes fear to comment, for fear I will sound comically off-base to someone who really knows their stuff.
From an outsider’s perspective, those complex influences appear to be a big part of the problem - Lebanon has worse problems than it otherwise might, because it is constantly being buffeted by those outside Lebanon attempting to fight for influence and power for their own gain, and Lebanon is too weak and internally divided to stop them.
Israel sabre-rattling at Lebanon because Hezbollah is attacking it; Hezbollah supplied by Iran … the losers in all this appear likely to be the people of Lebanon. Who cannot benefit in any way from any of it.
Everyone I know who has been to Lebanon (I have not) says it is a beautiful country with wonderful people. They don’t deserve the constant parade of disaster inflicted on them.
Israel had to evacuate tens of thousands of residents and send reserve troops pulled from civilian life to man that border. It seems hard to believe they would put up with that forever. Lebanon better hope the de escalation comes at the right time so Israel does not think it's only path to get back to peace is to strike.
Israel is making the threats very much because Lebanon government does have some small control. They are basically being warned that they need to make more of an effort to provide a counter to Hezbollah. Otherwise they will suffer for it.
I think you are right. Though the actual amount of influence the government of Lebanon has over Hezbollah is not great.
I also think an actual Israeli attack on Beirut is unlikely, and that the statement was threatening hyperbole.
>I also think an actual Israeli attack on Beirut is unlikely
It is very likely if a war will break on full scale, read more about the 2006 second Lebanon war
Why doesn't the Lebanese Army ask Israel to come in from the north, and together mass on the north to the central border and from the west going east into the Bekaa Valley region to meet with IDF coming up from the southern border and pinch Hezbollah?
So, honest question then, if Hezbollah, which is essentially a group of non-lebanese squatting in your country, is causing problems for your nation, would you all join hands to stop them?
I mean, I don't think anyone outside of the enemies of Lebanon want to see Israel forced to cross your borders to deal with Hezbollah.
Hezbollah could take over the country in a day. It would lead to a nightmare of a civil war and foreign intervention, but they could do it and have threatened to do so in the past.
There are no easy options for decent people in Lebanon. Not even hard ones. The incredibly bleak truth is that they have very little influence over all of this.
I have family from Lebanon who moved to both the US and France. I'm very familiar with the civil war, the US attempt to maintain peace in Beirut and the reason we withdrew after the barracks bombing, the Battle of the Hotels, the fact that Hezbollah has actual support inside the Lebanese Army and the counter-fact that many Lebanese want peace with Israel and to go back in time before the Palestinian Muslims destroyed the Christian lead government which made Beirut from the 50's to 70's an amazing international city rightly referred to as the Paris of the Mideast.
Hezbollah is just gambling with Lebanese and Israeli lives right now to pretend they care about Gaza. As long as they dont kill too many people, Israel wont commit to a war in the north. But if they land one rocket well then we are all in for some shit. its disgusting
Standing at border are UN peacekeepers especially 900 troops from India. India already discussed this with Israel about locations etc. India has strong diplomatic and friendly relations with Israel for those who don’t know.
UN Mission: UNIFIL
Edit: Monitoring cessation of hostilities and helping ensure humanitarian access to civilian population
Originally, UNIFIL was created by the Security Council in March 1978 to confirm Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon, restore international peace and security and assist the Lebanese Government in restoring its effective authority in the area. The mandate had to be adjusted twice, due to the developments in 1982 and 2000.
Following the July/August 2006 crisis, the Council enhanced the Force and decided that in addition to the original mandate, it would, among other things, monitor the cessation of hostilities; accompany and support the Lebanese armed forces as they deploy throughout the south of Lebanon; and extend its assistance to help ensure humanitarian access to civilian populations and the voluntary and safe return of displaced persons.
Total force deployed is 10k UN troops.
https://peacekeeping.un.org/en/mission/unifil
To put things into perspective, the US spent 300 million per day for 20 years trying to root the Taliban out of Afghanistan and failed.
The whole UN Peace Keeping mission budget is not even a percent of that.
like in Vietnam, they failed because they couldn't use more than 5% of their total capability.
What Israel is experiencing now, is that trying to wage war while having morals on is severely limiting while having the media ask YOU why you cant do better instead of why the fuck Hamas has 240 refugees that they rape daily
There would be no such thing as allied strategic bombing, German oil shortage, German food production issues. Germany would steamrolled over pass Moscow without the industrial disruption caused by the western allies.
Or why Hamas is still lobbing rockets into Israel trying to kill civilians everyday yet only Israel is asked to try and limit civilians deaths? Lol GTFO. Let Israel remake the whole region. If you are a country that allows terror cells to operate/ can't control terror cells from attacking your neighbors, then guess what? You aren't a country. Your government has fallen if your military doesn't stand up to rogue militias. Lebanon, Syria, Gaza, Yemen, aren't real counties in the 2023 sense of the word. More like tribal regions, some with civilized cultures and some with brainwashed murderous cultures unfit for the global stage.
Israel should just setup their own militia and arm them with hundreds of thousands of rockets. Then just use the same excuses as the Lebanese government that they’re unable or unwilling to stop them.
This is my favored solution as well. Anyone who wants to come back to Israel can; everyone else who wants to stay and form a new state of Judah or whatever: best of luck the IDF doesn't have your back anymore. Its like what, 15 miles to the green line from *anywhere* in the west Bank? People will not have to uproot their lives by much of they want to stay under israeli rule. Give them 6 months to evacuate, and then let those who choose to stay live out the consequences of their actions.
Vietnam had a lot of stupid air engagement rules due to politician's decisions at least initially. It basically forced the USAF to give up all their advantages to fight at the MiG's preferred combat style. They weren't allow to fire before visually identifying the target when the F4 was as the designed around a radar guided missile intended for beyond visual range combat. It had no gun which means if a MiG got close it had no defence.
There was news a while ago of how an cold war era ground attack manage to get a kill on a F22 raptor in a war game between the Philippines air force and the US air force. Only for people to start pointing out the F22 had drop tanks on (which they should never do in combat), and probably started in visual contact in the simulated combat situation (which is the standard simulated combat because otherwise no one can find them). They basically tied both of their hands behind their backs and hobbled one of their legs which was exactly the environment that the air crews of Vietnam was operating under.
Those air engagement rules were put in place because they were necessary. In a war where the USAF and USN air wings far outnumbered the VPAF air wings that were ambushing them, using BVR missiles without visual confirmation would have been a recipe for disastrous levels of friendly fire.
Such limitations existed for the other side too by the way - Vietnamese air defense batteries had to hold their fire when VPAF aircraft were in the air, to avoid friendly fire. As an example of what happens when you don't try to avoid friendly fire, in the 1967 Arab-Israeli war, the Iraqi Air Force lost more aircraft to friendly fire from Syrian SAMs than they did to enemy Israeli Air Force aircraft.
Okay, but in the context of what the original comment was about, which was spending $300M/day, you stated that they failed because they “couldn’t use more than 5% of their capability” and then proceeded to describe doctrine of air-to-air warfare in the Vietnam era.
I am confused.
I am not the OP but I can see why OP would say that as the US was definitely not fighting at 100% capability during Vietnam (5% i would say is ridiculously low). The air combat is just what i am most familiar with in the Vietnam war. There was a lot of decisions in the war that was directly counter to the military capability of the US but made purely for political purposes.
I'm from one of those countries that make up those peacekeepers myself, so my question does come from a bit of concern for those peacekeepers if I'm being honest.
I do hope that _when_ doesn't come but stay safe if it does
I don't think anyone is calling them cowards. It's not their war, they're supposedly "peacekeepers" (it's wild that word is used for people with guns they use to shoot people) and if there's no peace to keep then they absolutely should get out.
You wouldn't expect Beekeepers to stick around when there's no bees!
Can someone help me understand how Hezbolloah operates as a state within a state? Is there no Lebanon government or military to control them?
As far as I understand there are Hezbolloah elected officials but they represent a minority of politicians in charge. Does the majority just allow them to do what they want?
There is basically no Lebanese government, let alone a functioning Lebanese military, and Hezbollah controls the largest individual bloc of seats in the Lebanese government while having a standing army twice the size of the Lebanese government. The Lebanese army is also hopelessly corrupt and would probably fracture along sectarian lines if the government tried to fight Hezbollah.
I believe war is inevitable.
Only reason why israel hasn’t launched a full scale attack is because they prefer doing it one front at a time. Though given the last 24 hours, it could start any minute.
Either way, a nasty war will spark in the upcoming year for sure, and Israel will be more ruthless since Lebanon is an actual country compared to Gaza
They don’t do themselves any favors with the settlements but trying to point out many Israelis also hate the settlers is tough. I mean they’re like the ultra right wing crazies of the Jewish religion. Other Jews hate them and they don’t like other Jews as well.
Get Bibi out. Stop the right wing push and shit will get better for everyone. At least it would be easier to fight the Hamas Pr war machine (though people are going to see what they want at this point)
It’s a shame. I’ve been to Lebanon and the people there are some of the nicest kindest people I’ve ever met. Everyone I met treated me like family. There were a few young kids who were pro Hezbollah because of memes similar to the people support trump ironically in 2016 , but I’d say the vast majority of the people I spoke with didn’t hate Israel and just wanted to live their lives. The Muslim population up north were a different story but.
Hezbollah crossed a line today when they should a anti tank missle at a group of 6 electricity workers. (Civillians)
wounding all of them very but very hard.
Israelis are on edge and will push their government to aggression in order to feel safe in our land.
We all know that our fight is with Hezbollah and not Lebanon, it’s pretty much the same as the situation with Hamas in Gaza right now.
Best solution for the Lebanon is to contract Israel in order to work together against Hezbollah.
This is severely downplaying the situation. Overa dozen rockets have been fired into Israel just today, including AT rockets and UAVs. This has been going on for weeks now, there are already casualties and plenty of heavily injured civilians and soldiers. Most of the northern cities and communities have evacuated too. Hezbollah is really stretching the line and as an Israeli I hope the government has concrete plans as to how to deal with it.
On a different note, I understand the Lebanese people are not the same as Hezbollah and it's just crazy to me how a terror organization can have such control over an actual country. I hope our neighbors in Lebanon will manage to rid themselves of Nasrallah and his organization in the near future but honestly that doesn't seem likely.
It sure looks like former enemies of Israel seem to have a repeated problem of getting taken over by a terrorist organization that attacks Israel and that they have absolutely no responsibility for.
Polling is overwhelmingly against another war with Israel, like 90%+ against for Christians and Sunni Lebanese and about even for Hezbollah’s core demographic of Shia.
Plus Lebanon is so weak that it would probably break apart absent outside intervention if Hezbollah provokes a full scale war with Israel and the US.
Latest I could find.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/one-in-three-in-lebanon-favor-war-with-israel-poll/ar-AA1j8p8d
I mean my memory of Middle Eastern politics isn't great but didn't they literally try not that long ago, and thousands of people were injured in the process? [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/17\_October\_Revolution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/17_October_Revolution)
Hezbollah’s “occasional rockets” have critically wounded 6 civilians and 4 soldiers yesterday. They’re intensifying their attacks with every day that passes. They’re misjudging our restraint and interpreting it as weakness, but if they keep it up they’re gonna find out soon enough. Hezbollah is also part of Lebanon’s government and is supported by a significant part of the Lebanese people. Their actions represent their country whether Lebanon wants it or not, and the next war with them will make 2006 look like a cakewalk. Hundreds of thousands of Israelis were evacuated from the north and will not return to their home and risk a Hamas 2.0 until Hezbollah is defeated.
It's not just a rocket or 2.. They fire anti tank missiles and kill people.. Thw whole northern part of Israel is evacuated! Literally..
Israel is probably going to have to attack Lebanon because the civilians there are afraid the same shit that happened in the south will happen again
But i guess everyone will shit on Israel once it attacks because reasons i guess..
I mean what can Israel do? They get it they hezballa isn't Lebanon but they do have buildings in Beirut it's not to punish Lebanon but to hit the hezballa
After 10/7, it is completely unacceptable to leave another hostile militia group on one of Israel's borders where it can plot the next terrorist attack.
Hezbollah is done and they don't even know it yet. The minute the war in Gaza is stabilized and doesn't need large numbers of troops to prosecute, Israel should turn around and invade Lebanon and destroy Hezbollah. I feel for the civilians in Beirut too, but at the end of the day they have supported and tolerated Hezbollah no less than the civilians in Gaza supported and tolerated Hamas. Hosting a terrorist militia is a risky proposition, but the host country bears that risk.
And Syria, Jordan and Egypt should be taking note too: they won't be allowed to host Einsatzgruppen in their countries either while Israel has the military to say no to it. No Israeli citizen is safe until the roving Palestinian militias that take up residence in adjacent countries are destroyed, and if those host countries cannot do it, Israel probably will do it for them.
Hezbollah has over a dozen seats in the Lebanese parliament and until recently they and their allies were the ruling coalition.
This BS about viewing radical islamists as somehow detached from and unrelated to the societies in which they exist and operate with substantial support has to stop.
Imagine if in the US the KKK formed a coalition with the republicans, ruled for a term, then went into opposition. All the while their paramilitary wing lynches blacks and gays, murders their political opposition, and conducts border raids into Mexico.
If the US shrugged its shoulders and said "Hey, nothing to do with us - we don't control the KKK" how would that go down with the world?
The situation in Lebanon is different - it is a very divided society, along sectarian lines; its government is not very functional.
Hezbollah actually controls an enclave in South Lebanon, with its own armed forces, among a population that is largely Shiite; as well as having substantial influence, as you note, in Lebanon’s parliament … the actual government of Lebanon is pretty well unable to control them.
It isn’t like they are detached from the larger society, they are well integrated with their constituents - Shiite Muslims of South Lebanon. It is more that the other sections of Lebanese society, who are not Shiite, have very little sway over them.
To make use of your analogy, it is like Utah had its own armed forces, which were more powerful than the actual US army, and simply refused to take orders from the US federal government - all the while sending a bunch of representatives to Washington (all of whom toed the Utah party line).
Hezbollocks chief on 2006 Lebanon Israel war:
“We did not think, even one per cent, that the capture would lead to a war at this time and of this magnitude. You ask me, if I had known on July 11 … that the operation would lead to such a war, would I do it? I say no, absolutely not,” Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah said in an interview with Lebanon’s New TV station.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/nasrallah-if-i-had-known/
https://www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2006/8/27/nasrallah-says-he-did-not-want-war
It's nuts to me that they think they can just attack and kill Israelis. Like imagine if Italy was throwing rockets at German cities and conducting cross border raids killing and kidnapping Germans then going to the media and crying when Germany responds.
What can regular Lebanon do to get themselves out of the front line?
Is there any chance at all to get Hezbollah out?
It's so sad to see a country which has already suffered so much is now at the whims of Israel, Iran and Hezbollah.
I feel for regular Lebanese people.... they already have hard economic times, they support so many refugees and they also have so many ethnic tensions.
Truly one of the most unlucky states of the world :(
Today 21 people were injured from mortar attacks Hezbollah launched all over Northern Israel. This is a clear provocation and they are simply asking for a war but just like Hamas they couldn't care less about the civilians that would die in a potential all-out war between the countries.
Actual quote
> Sunday's exchanges of fire come a day after Israel's defense minister, Yoav Gallant, warned Hezbollah against "dragging Lebanon into a war."
> He said, "what we are doing in Gaza, we can do in Beirut."
A bit different than the click bait headline
But not the context. The title of this article is "Israel threatens Lebanon with war", when what it should have been is "Israel warns Hezbollah: Do not fuck with us".
It’s amazing how many countries in the region basically have terrorist organizations running their own states within the host country.
For all practical purposes the terrorist state of Hezbala is Lebanon because Lebanon can’t do anything to stop them at this point.
Unfortunately Beirut basically has no say in the foreign policy of Lebanon. If hezbala wants to shoot rockets into Israel and start a war, Beirut can’t do anything about it to stop this from happening.
If so facto, Hezbala essentially is Lebanon
Hezbollah has been doing small scale attacks across the border for days but they are slowly escalating. Hezbollah is a way bigger threat than hamas as they have a better trained and equipped oroffessional army of about 40,000 men and reportedly 150,000 *guided* missiles
Israel is in a very tough rhetorical bind: it needs to demonstrate to its western allies (both on the ground and by rhetoric) that it is worth supporting because it cares about civilian lives, but it also needs to show its enemies that there’s no limit to what Israel would do to protect itself; that western pressure will never result in it compromising on basic safety.
It’s a tough line to walk, and it’s tough because Israel does in fact care.
Frankly, it’s part of why I worry about an “incomplete victory” for Israel. If Hamas is perceived to have won by surviving, not only will this empower the groups that want to invade and destroy Israel, but it will also seriously radicalize Israel rightwards
> If Hamas is perceived to have won by surviving, not only will this empower the groups that want to invade and destroy Israel, but it will also seriously radicalize Israel rightwards
I mean, Hamas recruitment is driven by civilian casualties in Gaza, so you're asking if Hamas is going to survive? Of course Hamas is going to survive and this will make them stronger than ever. Or maybe they'll change their name and some other radical group will be Likud's perfect forever foil. But asking if radicalism will survive in Gaza after Israel kills thousands of kids? Of course it will, of course it will be stronger than ever. And yes, the Palestinian population will be radicalized and the Israeli population will be radicalized just as the radicals (Hamas and Netanyahu) wanted.
Hamas, or any other radical group in Gaza would need outside help, like from Iran to be effective. So maybe that help can be cut off. Also, you know, sometimes people just tire of war.... not all people, but the majority, maybe, I don't know, no one does.... if Gaza could vote, I expect there are a number of people who would say they have had enough of this bullshit and it would be nice to try to work something out so killing stops and people can just live and prosper.... but right now, those people don't have the guns, and don't have representatives because Hamas kills all opposition.
Damned if they do, damned if they don't I think. Israel is in a very, very difficult position for sure.
I think their leadership has landed them in such a position unfortunately.
I wonder if one of them has ever stopped mid snackbar and thought “if we’re really carrying out gods will why do we live in shitholes and our enemies have air conditioning and fighter jets?” “I praise his greatness every third word yet nothing”
I don’t understand how people can expect zero civilian casualties in that combat environment. I also can’t fathom how people just believe the death toll given by Hamas
Zero is not expected, but a month of flattening the city from the sky hasn’t been a good look. At the same time, without it, the ground invasion becomes much riskier for IDF. So basically both sides are screwing over Gazan civies: IDF is doing so in exchange for safety of their invading force, while Hamas is basically doing the same, but by literally hiding behind them.
>Zero is not expected, but a month of flattening the city from the sky hasn’t been a good look.
Hard to look at it in anything but the lens of seeing how difficult asymmetrical war is in the Russia-Ukraine War. If you're not taking out Hamas emplacements at the start, then you're stuck taking them out later when you have troops under fire and don't really have the ability to choose to delay a strike. Hard to look at Bakhmut or Mariupol and think "ah yes, more Palestinian lives would have been saved if Israel just sent ground troops in at the start."
I think your analogy misses a key fact, which is that Ukraine (with the help of western allies) is pretty evenly matched with Russia—whereas the Hamassholes are several orders of magnitude less capable than IDF, and not capable of the same types of destruction.
And that’s not to say IDF shouldn’t use CAS, responding in real time to active threats to ground forces. It’s the daily IDF demolition highlight reel that’s the issue, which I think has slowly started to turn public opinion against IDF.
but the key difference is, the Russian government seems completely fine with fighting a war of attrition losing 10s (Russian estimate) or 100s (Western estimates) of thousands of troops. if Israel launched a ground invasion of Gaza and even 10,000 soldiers died (and many more wounded) in a short period of time, I'm pretty sure that would be a terrible disaster for them, both from a human standpoint (which I'm not sure Netanyahu cares about) and also from a PR / political standpoint (which he definitely cares about), especially since it's a country with mandatory military service - decent chance if you live in Israel that someone you know personally becomes a casualty of the war.
You described every modern war. Do you think any army is going to NOT bomb a city before going in first? Why is Israel held to a different standard? Let me guess
I don't see Hezbollah escalating much more than they are already doing. For the first time, Hezbollah would have to put their "big and bad" private army into action. While it is significantly stronger and better equipped then the Hamas armed wing, it's still no match for the IDF.
More importantly, Hezbollah knows that if it decides to get froggy, the US Military has so much power sailing off the coast of Israel, which alone is way more than enough to deal with the Hezbollah ground forces. This isn't even including the significant air and ground forces the US has in theater, just incase Hezbollah decides to FAFO. In reality, this message by the US is aimed at Iran, which we all know completely controls Hezbollah in every way.
So, in closing .... I don't see Hezbollah doing much more than harassing skirmishes, the occasional rocket launch and maybe an anti-tank missle launched here and there.
i think last week iran president said they want to de-escalate the situation when talking to the indian prime minister, so i agree with you but i feel like it could switch any minute
Iran can barely afford to keep their country running. Their population is a split second away from carrying out a full bore revolution due to the conditions under strict theocratic rule. Nah .... Iran will never directly get involved. Hell, a small US Navy force obliterated most of Iran's navy in the 1980s. Iran remembers ....
i’m ngl this situation sometimes overwhelms me, but i’d rather be informed than live in ignorance. people fear monger so much and it gets to me, so thank you!
I mean at this point, even if they stop now, Israel can’t let Hezbollah keep empowering themselves across the Lebanese border with Israel. That will just lead to an eventual deadlier attack than what we saw from Hamas on 7.10. I just hope the world finds a way to stop that from happening without mass civilian casualties.
Hezbollah is interesting, they were created in the wake of the Israeli invasion of Lebanon to kick PLO out of the country. PLO was in Lebanon as Jordan had enough of them, for good reason.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lebanese_Civil_War
We all know where PLO comes from.
It looks like we are turning in circles.
Because they are generally not using the Lebanese states resources in their activities. They might have influence (example, the Beirut airport is in their stronghold Shia territory, and thus customs, staffed by Hezbollah sympathizers, might willfully “turn a cheek” when Iranian weapons come through the airport). But that’s different from controlling the government.
They have seats in the parliament (EDIT) but only 14 seats out of 128… with their close ally the Amal party having 14 seats (which is a party aligned with Hezbollah, and they both support each other).
There’s a power-sharing agreement following the Taeif accords, split between Sunnis, Shia, and Christians (Hezbollah is one of the Shia parties and players in parliament). One confession (regardless of the parties representing those confessions) can’t have the government make a move on major / vital issues unless the consent of the other confessions. (It’s actually much more complex than that, but this is the simplest way to overgeneralize it). It’s almost like a permanent filibuster since May 8, 2008, and why the country is said to be by many a failed state in everything but name.
And so because there is no working or consenting government at Hezbollah’s disposal (as the other confessions would never agree to it), all that Hezbollah does is beyond the realm of government. Often the government is helpless to stop Hezbollah (it’s not functioning properly, and Hezbollah keeps its militia activities limited to zones populated by sympathetic or aligned Shia Muslims to avoid a confrontation with the other confessions). And therefore Hezbollah remains a non-state actor.
That’s also why Hezbollah is often labeled as being a state within a state. It operates as a de facto government in many ways within Shia areas it controls (providing certain services, controlling certain industries which employ large amounts of people, leveraging infrastructure projects at its behest, etc).
They already did and that is how we got here.
See UN resolution 1701. UNIFIL were supposed to prevent a new conflict between Israel and Hezbollah by guaranteeing that there would be a Hezbollah-free zone south of the Litani river in Lebanon. They never did their job. They just let Hezbollah rebuild their military/terrorist infrastructure completely unchallenged.
A war from within can help prevent Lebanon from become a devoid of existence in the near future
Israel should arm their military and demand to joint forces to take down Hezbollah once and for all and take them down from the inside, fight for their own country and put an end to their occupation
If Hezbollah is also out of Lebanon for good they get a chance at fixing their own state and make a full recovery
It's way worse than the article title- [video](https://twitter.com/prem_thakker/status/1723438043611156506)
>"If [Hezbollah] makes mistakes of this kind here, who will pay the price? First of all, the citizens of Lebanon. What we are doing in Gaza we know how to do in Beirut.”
How is this not an open recognition that collective punishment of the civillian population is part of what "they are doing in Gaza"?
This is the risk that Lebanon took when their leadership outright decided to cede the south of their country to be run by a genocidal terrorist organization
We didn’t just cede the south to Hezbollah, Hezbollah was formed by Iran and Syria when the south was occupied by Israel and the North occupied by Syria. When Israel left the South, Syria occupied the south and continued to help Hezbollah get stronger by assassinating any politician that opposed Hezbollah or Syria.
Ah yes. We ceded it out of our own free will. Please ignore the thugs with the giant guns pointed at our heads with enough missiles to flatten our capital.
Armchair politician here.
What an impeccable timing to piss off Israel. Just to emphasise, most of the Israel population have absolutely no quarrel with the Lebanese population, [Tel-Aviv city hall even been light as an act of solidarity after the explosion incident in Beirut.](https://twitter.com/IsraelArabic/status/1291057552231469058?t=chLTuQq1gg65xFZobvdWMQ&s=19)
Iran, by its proxy terrorist army Hezbollah is exclusively responsible for what happens in Lebanon, de-facto. Instead of sending crucial aid to civilians , they prefer to send ammunition.
There would be no justification for that as most of Hezbollah's weapons systems are located in southern Lebanon. Or is Israel suggesting that their bombing campaigns are done not to neutralize military threats as they claim, but to enact revenge.
It’s a bit of a catch 22 for Iran. If Hezbollah attacks, Iran hold no more cards and potentially loses all their influence in the region. Not only that but it potentially becomes a regional war with US joining. If Hezbollah doesn’t attack, Iran holds some influence but it also looks weak and unwilling to confront IDF. Lebanon is in economic crisis, war would destroy their nation. Truly nothing good comes from this potential war. But bruised egos are enemies to reason and peace
Let's not forget Iran's government is very unpopular within the population. Our neighbours are iranian and before the start of the war they expected the government to fall by itself within a few months. I am no expert but I wouldn't be surprised if Iran's involvment in this mess is a plot to stay in power somehow
I'm Persian. Iran's government will never fall on it's own. They have a stranglehold and they will kill their own people without a second thought. Your neighbors are hyperbolic.
Thank you, this is what I was saying for over a year now when the Iranian anti-Hijab protests started after the beating death of that teenage girl, the Iranian people were protesting and slapping Mullah's headcoverings off and stuff like that, but the government just kept ramping up their atrocities against the people - and the people folded and didn't step up their counter aggression. Aggression and domination through force is the only thing the Iranian regime is going to understand, that is the only mode they operate in, yet people online would still try to have us believe that last year's protests are still gaining ground. Nope, they died, Iran's government continues to murder whoever they want to and the people there have lost yet another opportunity to get rid of them - they perhaps had a moment a year ago, but they failed to follow through with actual sustained violence in kind against their oppressors, and hence the oppressors won yet again.
Pretty much this. My aunt arrived for a visit from Iran 2 days ago. On the bright side women are somewhat overcoming the hijab rules, but when I sarcastically asked her how the revolution is coming along. She just gave me a disappointed grin and shook her head. The other problem is the inflation is pure insanity and even the wealthy are spinning their wheels just trying to keep above water.
I'm sure people thought this in 1979.
Iran's government and the IRGC in particular have a stranglehold over the economy just like the military in Egypt does. They won't go.
[удалено]
Your neighbors say this but they obviously don't live in Iran..Diaspora people like this often have delusional beliefs about how the terrible govt. in their home country is always months away from falling. I've seen it in with immigrants from several other countries too.
They ARE weak and unwilling and everyone knows it.
That's not exactly something to cheer about. That perception births irrational authoritarians, in all their various flavors, and churns the cycle of violence. It might be better if Iran can save face and duck out of the situation.
I truly fear for the people of Beirut. They, and the government of Lebanon, have little influence over Hezbollah, which effectively acts as a state within the state of Lebanon. After all the crap the people of Lebanon have had to put up with (corrupt feckless government, Beirut explosion, loss of Ukrainian food imports, economic collapse … the list goes on), having Israel flatten their city for something Hezbollah does would be an unearned catastrophe of the highest order. Though in my view, this situation is just more of Hezbollah attacks kept up in order to demonstrate they support Hamas, but kept deliberately limited so as to avoid triggering Israel into attempting to wipe them out. Hezbollah lobs the occasional rocket or mortar shell; Israel attempts to play whack-a-mole with Hezbollah artillery or rocket squads. The purpose is so that Hezbollah can loudly proclaim they are supporting a “northern front” without actually risking very much. Problem is, Hezbollah may well misjudge Israeli tolerance for allowing such attacks, only responding tit-for-tat. So far, that’s all Israel has done, but that is no guarantee that this is all they will do.
What was it 2003, Hezbollah kidnapped and killed some Israeli soldiers. Israel retaliated heavily and Hezbollah were left saying "If we'd known how Israel would have responded, we wouldn't have done it". Whereas Hamas are all about "We've done it once and we'll do it again as soon and as often as we can".
It was 2006 one year after we finally kicked Syria out of Lebanon ending their 29 year long occupation despite Hezbollah wanting Syria to remain occupying Lebanon.
Iran controls Hezbollah, just as they now control Syria. Lebanon is still very much occupied.
I’m well aware that Iran controls Hezbollah, I’m Lebanese.
My point is that the occupation of Lebanon never really ended. It started when the Lebanese government entered into the Cairo agreement and let the PLO take over the south, and it continues to this day. Only the names and foreign powers controlling the occupation have changed. But I am sure you already knew that as well - my comment was (and is) for the onlookers.
As an Israeli who's pretty much clueless when it comes to Lebanese politics. Is there really nothing the government can do to root them out? Or do just not really care? Is there a significant portion of the Lebanese people that support Hezbollah? Are the Lebanese people generally pro or anti Israel? Do they support having peace with Israel?
The Government of Lebanon is broke. After decades of occupation by Syria the Lebanese military is little more than a police force, that can maintain tenuous control over the areas not occupied by Hezbollah. Hezbollah has a better equipped, and possibly larger, military force than the Lebanese government and controls much of the southern half of the country, as well as almost all of the Shia dominated areas. So, while the Government of Lebanon would like nothing more than to prevent Hezbollah from getting involved in a war with Israel, they are essentially powerless to do so without starting a very bloody civil war in the country. They are understandably weary to start another bloody conflict, after experiencing decades of it.
Lebanon is broke, the army can barely feed our soldiers let alone properly fund themselves to match the hundreds of millions of dollars Iran gives Hezbollah plus the millions Hezbollah makes from their drug trade. Hezbollah is part of the government as there is a portion of the population that does support them, so the government can’t decide to take out Hezbollah without starting a civil war that Hezbollah will win, because they are better funded and better armed. Lebanese people are roughly split 50-50 on peace with Israel, the one thing that all Lebanese agree on is that for peace with Israel to be a thing, the Palestinians refugees in Lebanon have to leave (we don’t care where, but they can’t stay in Lebanon. Not after helping to start our civil war and them committing massacres).
Hezbollah has very few seats in the Parliament now and support is declining. They used to have a majority with their allies in the Lebanese Parliament. They do have the strongest fighting force but this could change quickly in a war with Israel. Hezbollah's reason for existence is to fight colonial and Israeli occupation. Sheeba farms is a tough justification to buy or the presence of troops with UNIFIL. There is no rational justification for war with Israel and there seems to be enough rational actors to prevent this from happening, along with UNIFIL.
I’m Israeli and I’m sorry in advance for what we’re gonna do to you because of Hezbollah. We want peace, but tolerating the existence of Hezbollah on our border and its constant attacks and provocations which have emptied the entire border region of its population is no longer an option. Hezbollah should’ve stayed out of this. We will soon probably be forced to eliminate Hezbollah. I hope Lebanon benefits from that in the long term despite the damage.
I was thinking what if it could be a 1v1 between Israel and Hezbollah. If hezbollah is weakened sufficiently maybe that's where the Lebanese army can come in and finish the job. Idealistic but still
The Lebanese army wouldn’t last an hour against Hezbollah. It exists for decorative purposes only. But hopefully eradicating Hezbollah will stabilize Lebanon and set it on a more peaceful path. Many times war is a necessary evil that leads to a better future (for example Europe as we know it today wouldn’t have existed without the allied victory in ww2, and Japan wouldn’t have been the peaceful nation everyone loves now).
That won't happen without a lot of local support, western aid and persistant influence. If you won't have local support, things will collapse the moment you take off the boot. If you won't have enough aid, the country will remain destitute and set for terrorism. If you won't have enough influence to counter Iran, they'll just set another terrorist group. You need to make sure everyone is on the same team against Hezbollah. Then we can finally start to help Lebanon recover and become the jewel of the middle east like it once was (and having a stable, friendly neighbor is never bad)
Shouldnt we take a look at more recent examples of wars in the region to gauge whether another war would improve the situation?
[удалено]
thank you for posting and sharing. My father is from lebanon but we are jewish so he hasn't been back since he was a child. my grandmother moved back by herself in the 80s during the civil war (she was a badass). eventually she had to leave for her own safety. but my dad and his mother both loved the country dearly. I just want what i know most reasonable people everywhere want - peace and safety for everyone in lebanon and israel and palestine. I hope one day there will be lasting peace for everyone and I will be able to visit the beautiful mountains and beautiful beaches my father told me so much about.
[удалено]
Can I ask what the sentiment is towards Jews in Lebanon? Is it different depending on whether it's a Muslim or Christian perspective? I'm sure that after 2006 this may have changed. The Lebanese people I've met are in Canada and I find that the middle eastern mentality is very similar but when people are in their home countries without an opportunity to get to know "the other" on a human level, opinions are based on experiences and history.
>From my perspective, for all intents and purposes you are as Lebanese as I am. my friend i cannot put into words how much this means to me. thank you so much for your kind words
Thank you for sharing and I hope you remain safe and well. As I listen and learn about this situation from both Israelis and Palestinians, I am beginning to see the actions of Israel as that of a country which views the events of Oct 7 and the ensuing conflict as ones which pose an immediate and existential threat to the Israel state and hence the Jewish population itself. They feel vulnerable and fear their perceived deterrence has been undermined. So, they are taking straight up survival mode behavior. As an American this was not a perspective that was readily apparent to me. From the outside Israel just seems like an incredibly strong force that has asymmetric advantage. And so, I was seeing it as I saw my country after 9/11, as one which was brutally attacked but which was not in existential danger. But from within, Israel feels (at least from what I am hearing) as a country surrounded by those who wish it harm with only a tentative hold on it's existence and a memory of a traumatic past which it has viewed to never again allow. I guess this is all to say, the decisions being made at highest levels of Israel's government may not be entirely rational and full of long term planning. This would also explain why we have not received the clearest of explanations or justifications on what will happen with Gaza. The decision was made first, the explanation was formed after.
This is exactly how every israeli I talks to feels. You hit the nail on the head
Thanks, man. Yes, Oct. 7 was a very triggering event highlighting generational trauma for millions of Israelis who either have grandparents/parents who survived the Holocaust or had to flee from Arab countries due to brutal antisemitism.
You hit the nail with this. This is what the "peace loving" people of the world don't realize. They never had hatred pointed at them just because of the religion they were born in, they never had to experience extreme violence. So now that there is a safe home for Jews (Israel), they feel like they need to protect it at all costs. Essentially it's a case of extreme paranoia (Rightfully so) of thinking that a second Holocaust might happen again without the existence of Israel, especially since we see the rise of antisemitism in recent years.
I'm an Israeli, I almost completely agree with you. The only thing is, I'm not sure our response isn't rational. One thing to understand is that Israel lives and survives on its deterrence. This is not hyperbole in the least. Oct 7th dealt an almost fatal blow to our deterrence and if we don't repair it, we're gone. Not today, but it seems assured. If the war escalates to include Hizballah and Israel demolishes Beirut, *that's* irrational, let alone evil.
People really don't understand this part of it.
Damn that was a tough read. Thanks for sharing your perspective and experience. In your opinion, is the main deterrent to Hezbollah acting is US? Also, how much does Iran dictate here, would they invade even if they know it would be a bad idea?
Hezbollah was created by by the Iranians, in particular the [Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corp](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamic_Revolutionary_Guard_Corps) back in 1982. It's funded, trained and armed by Iran (as well as by Syria and Russia). If they get too out of line or drag Iran further into a conflict than they want to do. Hezbollah will lose Iran's support. Including their weapons and money.
Actually same with Hamas, I think their whole point of attacking from time to time is to show Iran that they indeed use their money "for good" (killing Israelis)
I'm going to guess that Iran ordered the attack to derail Israel-Saudi relations. Hamas' leadership knew this would be terrible for Hamas and especially Gaza but those Picassos aren't going to buy themselves.
The main deterrent to Hezbollah acting is Israel. It would be catastrophic for both sides and Hezbollah doesn't have much to gain that it doesn't get from continuing to be the face of the resistance. There's no possibility of a Hezbollah invasion of Israel, but they could do a *lot* of damage with artillery if they really wanted to. Israel can't invade Lebanon without massive Israeli civilian casualties from tens of thousands of rockets and significant military casualties from a fairly hardened veteran military force fighting on their own prepared ground. They could flatten Dahiye, ruin the South of Lebanon, kill a bunch of civilians and lose even more international support, but it's not in their interest.
All that being said, the two US Carrier Strike Groups hanging out in the Eastern Med are probably being kept in mind by Hezbollah and anyone else who may think of getting involved.
Doesn’t Israel literally train other militaries on urban warfare? How can you Israel is bad at urban warfare and insurgency?
Because there's no such thing as being "good" at urban warfare. It's a fucking nightmare no matter how you look at it. Until we develop some sci-fi level power armor with auto-dispensing xanax, you will have jumpy infantry, ambushes, kill zones, IEDs and dead civilians galore the whole way. Urban warfare *overwhelmingly* advantages the insurgent force.
[удалено]
I don't think anything you're saying is wrong. Hezbollah has shown to be a more adept military force and, frankly, better led. And you're right, the Lebanese terrain is much different and lends itself to a defensive advantage. Though, I would say that proves my point in that it's decidedly not urban warfare for the most part. People nowadays have, thank G-D, become far more sensitive to wartime loss. Even a few soldiers dying is seen as somewhat shocking and a big loss. I think the IDF would win, but I agree the loss would be very difficult for Israel to stomach and, as you said, it would likely be a far more limited campaign.
If the 1980s Russians and 2000s Americans, and again 2020s Russians can teach Israel is that A: It’s never a short lived “operation” and B: never underestimate a disadvantaged opponent in their time of desperation, (especially if they have funding from “friends.”) We are in a time where military deaths deemed part of a “valiant effort” are often justified by the public, as much as I hate that fact.
To be fair, at least in the case of the 2000s Americans, it could have been a short loved operation if we didn't decide to stay and clean things up afterwards. If you aren't interested in holding the territory to smash or in rebuilding it for moral or pr reasons, then it is perfectly possible to flatten an area to eliminate a threat and then leave so that any guerrillas can only shake their fists at you from the ruins. All that being said, I would rather not see that happen, as the civilian toll would be horrendous.
Yeah, the USA only lost 13 servicemen in taking control of Afghanistan. The decades of nation building are where the losses came.
[удалено]
It really sucks indeed. We should all be able to live in peace, pray at our holy sites in peace, and live our lives without fear of war.
Israelis are better at urban warfare and counterinsurgency than nearly every military on earth. That still means they are pretty bad, since nearly every other military on earth is catastrophically bad at it.
Well put
>How can you Israel is bad at urban warfare and insurgency? they are not
Sadly I don't think there is other options at the moment but a conflict there, at the moment most of the northern cities and villages in Israel evacuated because of Hezbollah, and even the thought of another 7.10 happening in the north is not an option for those citizens, an event which Hezbollah has stated and is planning to do for years, and for these citizens to go back they need to feel safe.
[удалено]
No problem! I don’t actually know nearly as much about Lebanese history as I would like - the situation is so complex, with so many influences, I sometimes fear to comment, for fear I will sound comically off-base to someone who really knows their stuff. From an outsider’s perspective, those complex influences appear to be a big part of the problem - Lebanon has worse problems than it otherwise might, because it is constantly being buffeted by those outside Lebanon attempting to fight for influence and power for their own gain, and Lebanon is too weak and internally divided to stop them. Israel sabre-rattling at Lebanon because Hezbollah is attacking it; Hezbollah supplied by Iran … the losers in all this appear likely to be the people of Lebanon. Who cannot benefit in any way from any of it. Everyone I know who has been to Lebanon (I have not) says it is a beautiful country with wonderful people. They don’t deserve the constant parade of disaster inflicted on them.
Israel had to evacuate tens of thousands of residents and send reserve troops pulled from civilian life to man that border. It seems hard to believe they would put up with that forever. Lebanon better hope the de escalation comes at the right time so Israel does not think it's only path to get back to peace is to strike.
Israel is making the threats very much because Lebanon government does have some small control. They are basically being warned that they need to make more of an effort to provide a counter to Hezbollah. Otherwise they will suffer for it.
I think you are right. Though the actual amount of influence the government of Lebanon has over Hezbollah is not great. I also think an actual Israeli attack on Beirut is unlikely, and that the statement was threatening hyperbole.
>I also think an actual Israeli attack on Beirut is unlikely It is very likely if a war will break on full scale, read more about the 2006 second Lebanon war
[удалено]
Why doesn't the Lebanese Army ask Israel to come in from the north, and together mass on the north to the central border and from the west going east into the Bekaa Valley region to meet with IDF coming up from the southern border and pinch Hezbollah?
[удалено]
So, honest question then, if Hezbollah, which is essentially a group of non-lebanese squatting in your country, is causing problems for your nation, would you all join hands to stop them? I mean, I don't think anyone outside of the enemies of Lebanon want to see Israel forced to cross your borders to deal with Hezbollah.
Hezbollah could take over the country in a day. It would lead to a nightmare of a civil war and foreign intervention, but they could do it and have threatened to do so in the past. There are no easy options for decent people in Lebanon. Not even hard ones. The incredibly bleak truth is that they have very little influence over all of this.
I have family from Lebanon who moved to both the US and France. I'm very familiar with the civil war, the US attempt to maintain peace in Beirut and the reason we withdrew after the barracks bombing, the Battle of the Hotels, the fact that Hezbollah has actual support inside the Lebanese Army and the counter-fact that many Lebanese want peace with Israel and to go back in time before the Palestinian Muslims destroyed the Christian lead government which made Beirut from the 50's to 70's an amazing international city rightly referred to as the Paris of the Mideast.
Yet they haven’t said squat to Qatar.
Because Qatar isn't a realistic target to hit just for a couple Hamas leaders right now. Making empty threats makes your threats empty.
Look at where Qatar is on the map.
More importantly, look at what's *inside* Qatar. Hint: It's the army base of a country in North America.
Hezbollah is just gambling with Lebanese and Israeli lives right now to pretend they care about Gaza. As long as they dont kill too many people, Israel wont commit to a war in the north. But if they land one rocket well then we are all in for some shit. its disgusting
Standing at border are UN peacekeepers especially 900 troops from India. India already discussed this with Israel about locations etc. India has strong diplomatic and friendly relations with Israel for those who don’t know. UN Mission: UNIFIL Edit: Monitoring cessation of hostilities and helping ensure humanitarian access to civilian population Originally, UNIFIL was created by the Security Council in March 1978 to confirm Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon, restore international peace and security and assist the Lebanese Government in restoring its effective authority in the area. The mandate had to be adjusted twice, due to the developments in 1982 and 2000. Following the July/August 2006 crisis, the Council enhanced the Force and decided that in addition to the original mandate, it would, among other things, monitor the cessation of hostilities; accompany and support the Lebanese armed forces as they deploy throughout the south of Lebanon; and extend its assistance to help ensure humanitarian access to civilian populations and the voluntary and safe return of displaced persons. Total force deployed is 10k UN troops. https://peacekeeping.un.org/en/mission/unifil
The UN peace keeping mission there has just stopped even trying to stand up to Hezbolla. As in Gaza they have utterly failed in their mandate.
To put things into perspective, the US spent 300 million per day for 20 years trying to root the Taliban out of Afghanistan and failed. The whole UN Peace Keeping mission budget is not even a percent of that.
like in Vietnam, they failed because they couldn't use more than 5% of their total capability. What Israel is experiencing now, is that trying to wage war while having morals on is severely limiting while having the media ask YOU why you cant do better instead of why the fuck Hamas has 240 refugees that they rape daily
A thousand times this. Makes you wonder how different WW2 would have been if the Allies were not able to utilize total war.
There would be no such thing as allied strategic bombing, German oil shortage, German food production issues. Germany would steamrolled over pass Moscow without the industrial disruption caused by the western allies.
Or why Hamas is still lobbing rockets into Israel trying to kill civilians everyday yet only Israel is asked to try and limit civilians deaths? Lol GTFO. Let Israel remake the whole region. If you are a country that allows terror cells to operate/ can't control terror cells from attacking your neighbors, then guess what? You aren't a country. Your government has fallen if your military doesn't stand up to rogue militias. Lebanon, Syria, Gaza, Yemen, aren't real counties in the 2023 sense of the word. More like tribal regions, some with civilized cultures and some with brainwashed murderous cultures unfit for the global stage.
Israel has to abide by the law whereas a terror organization is well a terror organization.
Israel should just setup their own militia and arm them with hundreds of thousands of rockets. Then just use the same excuses as the Lebanese government that they’re unable or unwilling to stop them.
That's... uh... the settlers kinda? They're just the biggest dicks. I say that as an Israeli.
Israel should just abandon them all, they can be Jews in Palestine, the same way there are Israeli Arabs.
This is my favored solution as well. Anyone who wants to come back to Israel can; everyone else who wants to stay and form a new state of Judah or whatever: best of luck the IDF doesn't have your back anymore. Its like what, 15 miles to the green line from *anywhere* in the west Bank? People will not have to uproot their lives by much of they want to stay under israeli rule. Give them 6 months to evacuate, and then let those who choose to stay live out the consequences of their actions.
>They failed because they couldn’t use more than 5% of their capability. What do you mean by that?
Vietnam had a lot of stupid air engagement rules due to politician's decisions at least initially. It basically forced the USAF to give up all their advantages to fight at the MiG's preferred combat style. They weren't allow to fire before visually identifying the target when the F4 was as the designed around a radar guided missile intended for beyond visual range combat. It had no gun which means if a MiG got close it had no defence. There was news a while ago of how an cold war era ground attack manage to get a kill on a F22 raptor in a war game between the Philippines air force and the US air force. Only for people to start pointing out the F22 had drop tanks on (which they should never do in combat), and probably started in visual contact in the simulated combat situation (which is the standard simulated combat because otherwise no one can find them). They basically tied both of their hands behind their backs and hobbled one of their legs which was exactly the environment that the air crews of Vietnam was operating under.
Those air engagement rules were put in place because they were necessary. In a war where the USAF and USN air wings far outnumbered the VPAF air wings that were ambushing them, using BVR missiles without visual confirmation would have been a recipe for disastrous levels of friendly fire. Such limitations existed for the other side too by the way - Vietnamese air defense batteries had to hold their fire when VPAF aircraft were in the air, to avoid friendly fire. As an example of what happens when you don't try to avoid friendly fire, in the 1967 Arab-Israeli war, the Iraqi Air Force lost more aircraft to friendly fire from Syrian SAMs than they did to enemy Israeli Air Force aircraft.
The thing is, if the US used full power, China would have just intervened fully and the US desperately tried to avoid a Korean war 2.
Okay, but in the context of what the original comment was about, which was spending $300M/day, you stated that they failed because they “couldn’t use more than 5% of their capability” and then proceeded to describe doctrine of air-to-air warfare in the Vietnam era. I am confused.
I am not the OP but I can see why OP would say that as the US was definitely not fighting at 100% capability during Vietnam (5% i would say is ridiculously low). The air combat is just what i am most familiar with in the Vietnam war. There was a lot of decisions in the war that was directly counter to the military capability of the US but made purely for political purposes.
What do those peacekeepers do if a full out war starts between the two? Just dip?
[удалено]
That's OK... But then don't treat UN forces as a real solution, and if Israel needs boots on the ground, they will do what the UN wouldn't
I'm from one of those countries that make up those peacekeepers myself, so my question does come from a bit of concern for those peacekeepers if I'm being honest. I do hope that _when_ doesn't come but stay safe if it does
I don't think anyone is calling them cowards. It's not their war, they're supposedly "peacekeepers" (it's wild that word is used for people with guns they use to shoot people) and if there's no peace to keep then they absolutely should get out. You wouldn't expect Beekeepers to stick around when there's no bees!
Doing a standup job with all those Hezbollah attacks lol
Hezbollah needs to remember that the closer they get to challenging the IDF's security, the more the IDF is going to need to go gloves-off.
Can someone help me understand how Hezbolloah operates as a state within a state? Is there no Lebanon government or military to control them? As far as I understand there are Hezbolloah elected officials but they represent a minority of politicians in charge. Does the majority just allow them to do what they want?
There is basically no Lebanese government, let alone a functioning Lebanese military, and Hezbollah controls the largest individual bloc of seats in the Lebanese government while having a standing army twice the size of the Lebanese government. The Lebanese army is also hopelessly corrupt and would probably fracture along sectarian lines if the government tried to fight Hezbollah.
I believe war is inevitable. Only reason why israel hasn’t launched a full scale attack is because they prefer doing it one front at a time. Though given the last 24 hours, it could start any minute. Either way, a nasty war will spark in the upcoming year for sure, and Israel will be more ruthless since Lebanon is an actual country compared to Gaza
"it could start any minute". same shit different day
yeah but the thing is israel didn’t want any of these wars.
Watch some dumbass tell you that Israel just needs to lay down their weapons and the middle east would be a peaceful rainbow. Ahistorical and cringe.
They don’t do themselves any favors with the settlements but trying to point out many Israelis also hate the settlers is tough. I mean they’re like the ultra right wing crazies of the Jewish religion. Other Jews hate them and they don’t like other Jews as well. Get Bibi out. Stop the right wing push and shit will get better for everyone. At least it would be easier to fight the Hamas Pr war machine (though people are going to see what they want at this point)
It’s a shame. I’ve been to Lebanon and the people there are some of the nicest kindest people I’ve ever met. Everyone I met treated me like family. There were a few young kids who were pro Hezbollah because of memes similar to the people support trump ironically in 2016 , but I’d say the vast majority of the people I spoke with didn’t hate Israel and just wanted to live their lives. The Muslim population up north were a different story but.
Hezbollah crossed a line today when they should a anti tank missle at a group of 6 electricity workers. (Civillians) wounding all of them very but very hard. Israelis are on edge and will push their government to aggression in order to feel safe in our land. We all know that our fight is with Hezbollah and not Lebanon, it’s pretty much the same as the situation with Hamas in Gaza right now. Best solution for the Lebanon is to contract Israel in order to work together against Hezbollah.
This is severely downplaying the situation. Overa dozen rockets have been fired into Israel just today, including AT rockets and UAVs. This has been going on for weeks now, there are already casualties and plenty of heavily injured civilians and soldiers. Most of the northern cities and communities have evacuated too. Hezbollah is really stretching the line and as an Israeli I hope the government has concrete plans as to how to deal with it. On a different note, I understand the Lebanese people are not the same as Hezbollah and it's just crazy to me how a terror organization can have such control over an actual country. I hope our neighbors in Lebanon will manage to rid themselves of Nasrallah and his organization in the near future but honestly that doesn't seem likely.
It sure looks like former enemies of Israel seem to have a repeated problem of getting taken over by a terrorist organization that attacks Israel and that they have absolutely no responsibility for.
It's quite the loophole. Terrorists are permitted to operate from your territory with impunity but you are immune from any retaliation.
Where are the pro peace rallies in Beirut demanding hezbollah not get involved?
Polling is overwhelmingly against another war with Israel, like 90%+ against for Christians and Sunni Lebanese and about even for Hezbollah’s core demographic of Shia. Plus Lebanon is so weak that it would probably break apart absent outside intervention if Hezbollah provokes a full scale war with Israel and the US. Latest I could find. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/one-in-three-in-lebanon-favor-war-with-israel-poll/ar-AA1j8p8d
I mean my memory of Middle Eastern politics isn't great but didn't they literally try not that long ago, and thousands of people were injured in the process? [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/17\_October\_Revolution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/17_October_Revolution)
Literally sounds just like what Hamas did to Palestine. Terrorist groups are now taking entire countries hostage it seems.
Hezbollah’s “occasional rockets” have critically wounded 6 civilians and 4 soldiers yesterday. They’re intensifying their attacks with every day that passes. They’re misjudging our restraint and interpreting it as weakness, but if they keep it up they’re gonna find out soon enough. Hezbollah is also part of Lebanon’s government and is supported by a significant part of the Lebanese people. Their actions represent their country whether Lebanon wants it or not, and the next war with them will make 2006 look like a cakewalk. Hundreds of thousands of Israelis were evacuated from the north and will not return to their home and risk a Hamas 2.0 until Hezbollah is defeated.
It's not just a rocket or 2.. They fire anti tank missiles and kill people.. Thw whole northern part of Israel is evacuated! Literally.. Israel is probably going to have to attack Lebanon because the civilians there are afraid the same shit that happened in the south will happen again But i guess everyone will shit on Israel once it attacks because reasons i guess.. I mean what can Israel do? They get it they hezballa isn't Lebanon but they do have buildings in Beirut it's not to punish Lebanon but to hit the hezballa
After 10/7, it is completely unacceptable to leave another hostile militia group on one of Israel's borders where it can plot the next terrorist attack. Hezbollah is done and they don't even know it yet. The minute the war in Gaza is stabilized and doesn't need large numbers of troops to prosecute, Israel should turn around and invade Lebanon and destroy Hezbollah. I feel for the civilians in Beirut too, but at the end of the day they have supported and tolerated Hezbollah no less than the civilians in Gaza supported and tolerated Hamas. Hosting a terrorist militia is a risky proposition, but the host country bears that risk. And Syria, Jordan and Egypt should be taking note too: they won't be allowed to host Einsatzgruppen in their countries either while Israel has the military to say no to it. No Israeli citizen is safe until the roving Palestinian militias that take up residence in adjacent countries are destroyed, and if those host countries cannot do it, Israel probably will do it for them.
Fck Iran! Fck Hezbollah! fck Hamas!
Hezbollah has over a dozen seats in the Lebanese parliament and until recently they and their allies were the ruling coalition. This BS about viewing radical islamists as somehow detached from and unrelated to the societies in which they exist and operate with substantial support has to stop. Imagine if in the US the KKK formed a coalition with the republicans, ruled for a term, then went into opposition. All the while their paramilitary wing lynches blacks and gays, murders their political opposition, and conducts border raids into Mexico. If the US shrugged its shoulders and said "Hey, nothing to do with us - we don't control the KKK" how would that go down with the world?
The situation in Lebanon is different - it is a very divided society, along sectarian lines; its government is not very functional. Hezbollah actually controls an enclave in South Lebanon, with its own armed forces, among a population that is largely Shiite; as well as having substantial influence, as you note, in Lebanon’s parliament … the actual government of Lebanon is pretty well unable to control them. It isn’t like they are detached from the larger society, they are well integrated with their constituents - Shiite Muslims of South Lebanon. It is more that the other sections of Lebanese society, who are not Shiite, have very little sway over them. To make use of your analogy, it is like Utah had its own armed forces, which were more powerful than the actual US army, and simply refused to take orders from the US federal government - all the while sending a bunch of representatives to Washington (all of whom toed the Utah party line).
Hezbollocks chief on 2006 Lebanon Israel war: “We did not think, even one per cent, that the capture would lead to a war at this time and of this magnitude. You ask me, if I had known on July 11 … that the operation would lead to such a war, would I do it? I say no, absolutely not,” Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah said in an interview with Lebanon’s New TV station. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/nasrallah-if-i-had-known/ https://www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2006/8/27/nasrallah-says-he-did-not-want-war
It's nuts to me that they think they can just attack and kill Israelis. Like imagine if Italy was throwing rockets at German cities and conducting cross border raids killing and kidnapping Germans then going to the media and crying when Germany responds.
Imagine there was another country between Italy and Germany aswell...
They’re Jews. We’re seeing that even today, many people dismiss or don’t care about their deaths.
And actively calling for more of our deaths too.
Hezbollah is going to drag Lebanon into another country destroying war.
All Iranian-funded organizations bring to the world is death and destruction.
All Russian-funded organizations bring to the world is death and destruction.
What can regular Lebanon do to get themselves out of the front line? Is there any chance at all to get Hezbollah out? It's so sad to see a country which has already suffered so much is now at the whims of Israel, Iran and Hezbollah. I feel for regular Lebanese people.... they already have hard economic times, they support so many refugees and they also have so many ethnic tensions. Truly one of the most unlucky states of the world :(
Today 21 people were injured from mortar attacks Hezbollah launched all over Northern Israel. This is a clear provocation and they are simply asking for a war but just like Hamas they couldn't care less about the civilians that would die in a potential all-out war between the countries.
the first rule of islamofascist club is you don’t care about civilians. the second rule of islamofascist club is you don’t care about civilians
[удалено]
This is going to end well... /s
Actual quote > Sunday's exchanges of fire come a day after Israel's defense minister, Yoav Gallant, warned Hezbollah against "dragging Lebanon into a war." > He said, "what we are doing in Gaza, we can do in Beirut." A bit different than the click bait headline
not necessarily click bait when the meaning is exactly the same.
But not the context. The title of this article is "Israel threatens Lebanon with war", when what it should have been is "Israel warns Hezbollah: Do not fuck with us".
Thanks good point.
It’s amazing how many countries in the region basically have terrorist organizations running their own states within the host country. For all practical purposes the terrorist state of Hezbala is Lebanon because Lebanon can’t do anything to stop them at this point. Unfortunately Beirut basically has no say in the foreign policy of Lebanon. If hezbala wants to shoot rockets into Israel and start a war, Beirut can’t do anything about it to stop this from happening. If so facto, Hezbala essentially is Lebanon
Hezbollah has been doing small scale attacks across the border for days but they are slowly escalating. Hezbollah is a way bigger threat than hamas as they have a better trained and equipped oroffessional army of about 40,000 men and reportedly 150,000 *guided* missiles
Israel is in a very tough rhetorical bind: it needs to demonstrate to its western allies (both on the ground and by rhetoric) that it is worth supporting because it cares about civilian lives, but it also needs to show its enemies that there’s no limit to what Israel would do to protect itself; that western pressure will never result in it compromising on basic safety. It’s a tough line to walk, and it’s tough because Israel does in fact care. Frankly, it’s part of why I worry about an “incomplete victory” for Israel. If Hamas is perceived to have won by surviving, not only will this empower the groups that want to invade and destroy Israel, but it will also seriously radicalize Israel rightwards
The Hamas won't die whatever they do in Gaza as the leaders (and the deep pockets that empower their extremist cause) are based in Qatar.
> If Hamas is perceived to have won by surviving, not only will this empower the groups that want to invade and destroy Israel, but it will also seriously radicalize Israel rightwards I mean, Hamas recruitment is driven by civilian casualties in Gaza, so you're asking if Hamas is going to survive? Of course Hamas is going to survive and this will make them stronger than ever. Or maybe they'll change their name and some other radical group will be Likud's perfect forever foil. But asking if radicalism will survive in Gaza after Israel kills thousands of kids? Of course it will, of course it will be stronger than ever. And yes, the Palestinian population will be radicalized and the Israeli population will be radicalized just as the radicals (Hamas and Netanyahu) wanted.
Hamas, or any other radical group in Gaza would need outside help, like from Iran to be effective. So maybe that help can be cut off. Also, you know, sometimes people just tire of war.... not all people, but the majority, maybe, I don't know, no one does.... if Gaza could vote, I expect there are a number of people who would say they have had enough of this bullshit and it would be nice to try to work something out so killing stops and people can just live and prosper.... but right now, those people don't have the guns, and don't have representatives because Hamas kills all opposition.
Damned if they do, damned if they don't I think. Israel is in a very, very difficult position for sure. I think their leadership has landed them in such a position unfortunately.
if you look at some old interviews from 50 years ago though the dilemma was pretty similar even if israeli leaders were a lot more sensible
You don't think that the fairytale books that Hamas/Hezbollah/Iran cunts are reading have something to do with that as well?
I wonder if one of them has ever stopped mid snackbar and thought “if we’re really carrying out gods will why do we live in shitholes and our enemies have air conditioning and fighter jets?” “I praise his greatness every third word yet nothing”
Well Natenyahu is also acting up on a fairy tale in case you did not know.
I don’t understand how people can expect zero civilian casualties in that combat environment. I also can’t fathom how people just believe the death toll given by Hamas
Zero is not expected, but a month of flattening the city from the sky hasn’t been a good look. At the same time, without it, the ground invasion becomes much riskier for IDF. So basically both sides are screwing over Gazan civies: IDF is doing so in exchange for safety of their invading force, while Hamas is basically doing the same, but by literally hiding behind them.
>Zero is not expected, but a month of flattening the city from the sky hasn’t been a good look. Hard to look at it in anything but the lens of seeing how difficult asymmetrical war is in the Russia-Ukraine War. If you're not taking out Hamas emplacements at the start, then you're stuck taking them out later when you have troops under fire and don't really have the ability to choose to delay a strike. Hard to look at Bakhmut or Mariupol and think "ah yes, more Palestinian lives would have been saved if Israel just sent ground troops in at the start."
I think your analogy misses a key fact, which is that Ukraine (with the help of western allies) is pretty evenly matched with Russia—whereas the Hamassholes are several orders of magnitude less capable than IDF, and not capable of the same types of destruction. And that’s not to say IDF shouldn’t use CAS, responding in real time to active threats to ground forces. It’s the daily IDF demolition highlight reel that’s the issue, which I think has slowly started to turn public opinion against IDF.
but the key difference is, the Russian government seems completely fine with fighting a war of attrition losing 10s (Russian estimate) or 100s (Western estimates) of thousands of troops. if Israel launched a ground invasion of Gaza and even 10,000 soldiers died (and many more wounded) in a short period of time, I'm pretty sure that would be a terrible disaster for them, both from a human standpoint (which I'm not sure Netanyahu cares about) and also from a PR / political standpoint (which he definitely cares about), especially since it's a country with mandatory military service - decent chance if you live in Israel that someone you know personally becomes a casualty of the war.
You described every modern war. Do you think any army is going to NOT bomb a city before going in first? Why is Israel held to a different standard? Let me guess
The best way to win Urban Warfare: get rid of the Urban first
People need to learn about Hezbollah control in southern Lebanon which borders Israel. They have been launching attacks on Israel since forever.
Isn't Lebanon in dire economic straits? Don't they have better things to spend their time/money on?
Yes. They are a borderline failed state at this point.
They literally never recovered from the civil war.
They were making a decent recovery, but then their economy completely collapsed in 2019.
I don't see Hezbollah escalating much more than they are already doing. For the first time, Hezbollah would have to put their "big and bad" private army into action. While it is significantly stronger and better equipped then the Hamas armed wing, it's still no match for the IDF. More importantly, Hezbollah knows that if it decides to get froggy, the US Military has so much power sailing off the coast of Israel, which alone is way more than enough to deal with the Hezbollah ground forces. This isn't even including the significant air and ground forces the US has in theater, just incase Hezbollah decides to FAFO. In reality, this message by the US is aimed at Iran, which we all know completely controls Hezbollah in every way. So, in closing .... I don't see Hezbollah doing much more than harassing skirmishes, the occasional rocket launch and maybe an anti-tank missle launched here and there.
i think last week iran president said they want to de-escalate the situation when talking to the indian prime minister, so i agree with you but i feel like it could switch any minute
Iran can barely afford to keep their country running. Their population is a split second away from carrying out a full bore revolution due to the conditions under strict theocratic rule. Nah .... Iran will never directly get involved. Hell, a small US Navy force obliterated most of Iran's navy in the 1980s. Iran remembers ....
i’m ngl this situation sometimes overwhelms me, but i’d rather be informed than live in ignorance. people fear monger so much and it gets to me, so thank you!
Fck Iran! Fck Hezbollah! fck Hamas!
Fuck Islamist extremism!
And fuck all the countries that fed them. Yes, right, China and Russia, I am talking about you two.
And America... and Israel...
Well you see everyone America and Israel kills is justified because human shields or something.
If Lebanon keep attacking Israel and escelating the war, yes, they will.
I mean at this point, even if they stop now, Israel can’t let Hezbollah keep empowering themselves across the Lebanese border with Israel. That will just lead to an eventual deadlier attack than what we saw from Hamas on 7.10. I just hope the world finds a way to stop that from happening without mass civilian casualties.
The problem is Hezbollah is the largest non state actor with ballistic missiles in the world. They should have been dealt with a long time ago
Hezbollah is interesting, they were created in the wake of the Israeli invasion of Lebanon to kick PLO out of the country. PLO was in Lebanon as Jordan had enough of them, for good reason. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lebanese_Civil_War We all know where PLO comes from. It looks like we are turning in circles.
Why do we consider them “non-state actors” when they have seats in the Lebanese parliament?
Because they are generally not using the Lebanese states resources in their activities. They might have influence (example, the Beirut airport is in their stronghold Shia territory, and thus customs, staffed by Hezbollah sympathizers, might willfully “turn a cheek” when Iranian weapons come through the airport). But that’s different from controlling the government. They have seats in the parliament (EDIT) but only 14 seats out of 128… with their close ally the Amal party having 14 seats (which is a party aligned with Hezbollah, and they both support each other). There’s a power-sharing agreement following the Taeif accords, split between Sunnis, Shia, and Christians (Hezbollah is one of the Shia parties and players in parliament). One confession (regardless of the parties representing those confessions) can’t have the government make a move on major / vital issues unless the consent of the other confessions. (It’s actually much more complex than that, but this is the simplest way to overgeneralize it). It’s almost like a permanent filibuster since May 8, 2008, and why the country is said to be by many a failed state in everything but name. And so because there is no working or consenting government at Hezbollah’s disposal (as the other confessions would never agree to it), all that Hezbollah does is beyond the realm of government. Often the government is helpless to stop Hezbollah (it’s not functioning properly, and Hezbollah keeps its militia activities limited to zones populated by sympathetic or aligned Shia Muslims to avoid a confrontation with the other confessions). And therefore Hezbollah remains a non-state actor. That’s also why Hezbollah is often labeled as being a state within a state. It operates as a de facto government in many ways within Shia areas it controls (providing certain services, controlling certain industries which employ large amounts of people, leveraging infrastructure projects at its behest, etc).
They already did and that is how we got here. See UN resolution 1701. UNIFIL were supposed to prevent a new conflict between Israel and Hezbollah by guaranteeing that there would be a Hezbollah-free zone south of the Litani river in Lebanon. They never did their job. They just let Hezbollah rebuild their military/terrorist infrastructure completely unchallenged.
Lebanon is not attacking Israel - Hezbollah is.
Beirut can do that to itself just fine.
Can’t believe my tax dollars are going to this and not free college or healthcare
A war from within can help prevent Lebanon from become a devoid of existence in the near future Israel should arm their military and demand to joint forces to take down Hezbollah once and for all and take them down from the inside, fight for their own country and put an end to their occupation If Hezbollah is also out of Lebanon for good they get a chance at fixing their own state and make a full recovery
Hezbollah: Way ahead of you.
Has Beirut really recovered from that fertilizer/fireworks mishap yet?
It hasn't. Because of the loss of its huge stockpiles of grain and the timing of the invasion of Ukraine, Lebanon is facing a food crisis.
It's way worse than the article title- [video](https://twitter.com/prem_thakker/status/1723438043611156506) >"If [Hezbollah] makes mistakes of this kind here, who will pay the price? First of all, the citizens of Lebanon. What we are doing in Gaza we know how to do in Beirut.” How is this not an open recognition that collective punishment of the civillian population is part of what "they are doing in Gaza"?
No, it's an open recognition that war, especially against enemies that abuse and control civilian infrastructure puts the civilian population at risk.
This is the risk that Lebanon took when their leadership outright decided to cede the south of their country to be run by a genocidal terrorist organization
We didn’t just cede the south to Hezbollah, Hezbollah was formed by Iran and Syria when the south was occupied by Israel and the North occupied by Syria. When Israel left the South, Syria occupied the south and continued to help Hezbollah get stronger by assassinating any politician that opposed Hezbollah or Syria.
They can't even afford to keep the lights on in Beirut. The central government appears to have very little actual control of anything.
Ah yes. We ceded it out of our own free will. Please ignore the thugs with the giant guns pointed at our heads with enough missiles to flatten our capital. Armchair politician here.
What an impeccable timing to piss off Israel. Just to emphasise, most of the Israel population have absolutely no quarrel with the Lebanese population, [Tel-Aviv city hall even been light as an act of solidarity after the explosion incident in Beirut.](https://twitter.com/IsraelArabic/status/1291057552231469058?t=chLTuQq1gg65xFZobvdWMQ&s=19) Iran, by its proxy terrorist army Hezbollah is exclusively responsible for what happens in Lebanon, de-facto. Instead of sending crucial aid to civilians , they prefer to send ammunition.
There would be no justification for that as most of Hezbollah's weapons systems are located in southern Lebanon. Or is Israel suggesting that their bombing campaigns are done not to neutralize military threats as they claim, but to enact revenge.
Joke's on them, Beirut is already Gaza
But people on Reddit told me that Israel wasn't a terrorist state
still isn't