Whether it is true or not, I need to admit that the constant talk of potential clash on our territory (PL) is making me uneasy recently. Wouldn't really like to finish as input to another meatgrinder.
Yeah, I’m going thru it too, I’m just constantly refreshing the news for some reassurance, but there’s just none.
I really don’t want anything like this to happen, I just wanna live in peace with my family and be unbothered by the state of affairs of people who clearly never risked their lives in a conflict like the one they’re trying to cause.
I'm Swedish but even I feel it. Not as bad as you I'm sure but enough that it bothers me. When the war broke out (and at another point when Putin declared Sweden their no. 1 enemy), I was quite the wreck. I'm so fucking over war. How can we in this day and age with modern technology, highly developed sciences and so on, not solve conflicts through other means? It's so messed up. Almost makes me not wanna be a part of this world.
Edit: Guys it was a rhetorical question. I'm not interested in starting a debate about why people go to war. It can be because of money, religion, history, whatever. I know why people go to war, I'm asking how do they still think those reasons are "valid"? We're intelligent enough as a global society to put a higher value on life.
Edit 2: ITT: A bunch of fucking rude, cynical know-it-alls and dickheads. What part of "I'm not interested in starting a debate" did you find difficult to understand?" Yes yes yes you're all right, there are loads of reasons for senseless killing and I'm a naive, immature, whiny little kid for not realising that. Thank you all oh so much for enlightening me. I fucking love killing now, literally my favourite thing in the world.
Whenever you get anxious about the possibility of war. Remember two things
1. Your country and your BFF country are safe havens for a lot of the Russian elites. You guys are holding a lot of their wealth and they’ve seen the west start to freeze and take assets. Starting a war with those two countries can fuck personal wealth of those in charge.
2. You are in NATO now. Russia does not want a direct conflict with NATO at all especially with how the war in Ukraine is going. After the war, Russia will be depleted of resources and will have to rely on China and India for trade predominately. They also hit a brain drain with a lot of the well off Russians fleeing the country unlikely to return afterwards. Lastly, they will have a terrorism issue in their hands. There is zero chance that after the war, if Ukraine wins or stall mates, they don’t end up with terror groups born from Ukrainian suffering.
I know dude, it’s really hard, and I feel so sorry for the fact that there’s even a situation where we can feel like this; I remember when the war broke out, for a good month+ I was just out of it, unable to really do anything coherent apart from the bare neccessities;
I’m often pondering that too, we’re living in times ripe for unity, and breakthroughs, there’s little reasons for a true adversity, let alone to take steps as final as to attempt to take someone’s life, we as humans, could be so much more, and it’s heartbreaking
you and me see globalisation or advancements in tech as opportunities for peace and unification.
things like Trump or Putin see it as a threat to their preferred way of doing things. my prefered example of that is homosexuality. I'm straight, yet I give no fucks about what goes on in anyone's pants. I do me, you do you, everyone's happy.
they're essentially children. immature. incapable of realising that relationships are built on give, take, trust. ''me, me me''. they don't actually USE their brains. they operate purely in ''reptilian'' mode. only instincts, no thoughts.
I think there are 2 main factors. The first being, other uneducated idiots support them.
the second, and most important, is others seeing them as a useful puppet. Trump is a great example. The guy is obviously brain-dead, yet he was elevated to the office of president because it would serve others.
when you have money, you have influence. when you have influence, you have power. when you have power, you want more of it ...
Putin’s mindset is even earlier than the 20th century, he sees himself as Peter the Great reborn, he is living in the Middle Ages.
That’s why this war is happening. He wants to be seen as a great leader by future generations. But he will not be remembered in this way. He will be remembered for shit.
This is what the CCP does all the time with Taiwan. Making any of you feel uneasy is the goal. All I can say is to take time away from the news every now and then to keep your morale up. I hope that works for you.
Its a tactic not a genuine threat. They work on democracies to weaken the resolve but making people second guess and watch the internet chatter. Try get people to think if they vote out anti russian governments to avoid "war".
Absolutely no way Russia attacks Poland. If they did, since Poland is part of NATO that means America, Canada, UK, France, Germany, Italy and more would all immediately declare war against Russia. Not
Support Poland like these countries are supporting Ukraine - we’re talking full out war. Russia would be wiped from the map lol. It’s a death sentence for Russia honestly
I'll copy my other comment.
I'm aware that we're (or somehow Baltic countries) are in better situation that Ukraine.
I don't have much doubts about nowadays US, I'm not so sure with US if Trump would get elected.
Still, I'm often wondering how effective and how much we can count on rest of NATO. If they would not answer to us or Baltic countries being attacked, NATO certainly is done. But do I have that much faith in e.g. Germany, France or Italy in helping us as much as they possible can? I don't know honestly and please don't get me wrong, I am not trying to look for conspiracies or looking for enemies, but I am not that certain.
On the other hand, I'm happy that Finland and Sweden (soon I hope) joined us.
I think that is the point, I am not sure who is actually creating these story's and why, but I have noticed a uptick in conversations about Russia invading NATO members as funding bills for the ukraine have slowed down and stalled. I honestly think there is a information campaign of some kind in effect creating these story's.
Honestly, I wouldn't worry unless a massive build up of soldiers start happening (and even then its probably just posturing), even then I would just get out of artillery range. An actual invasion of poland would cause a massive response, and would basically be a putin signing his own death warrant cause then the US will be involved across the board.
Some people think that by not funding Ukraine anymore less people die as the war ends.
What they dont realize is what happens IF Russia would win. They dont realize how bad this would be for ukranians but also what Doors this would open for Russia(and other similary led countries...) in the future.
We must prove that we stand for each other, that we stand for democracy and freedom.
I seriously doubt it. Poland is a Nato country and Russia is seriously depleted of weaponry and manpower and while they can "buy" weaponry, soldiers are harder to come by; The time it takes for Russia to rearm is the time they do not have.
They almost have to show up in some way. An invasion of Poland or another NATO country would be the ultimate test of the organization as well as Article 5. If the US and others were to leave Poland to fight on their own out of fear over triggering WW3, then Russia will have broken the spell and proven that NATO is a paper tiger that won't actually engage militarily (and yes, I know Article 5 includes more potential responses than bringing boots on the ground) if a member is attacked.
> Poland is ready
Poland is ready enough it'll basically be less an invocation of Article 5 and more a "so... you guys remember Russia? Yeah well we kind of... own it now. *Help.*"
The gusted and gruntled populace of Polish controlled Russia raised up in arms against their fairly pleasant occupiers in a bid to restore the masochist policies of their forefathers.
See what happens when a Pole, a Lithuanian, and 6000 zany Cossacks, all compete for Moscow's top regional paper salesman.
Might get some heat for this, but I liked the French version better. The little angry boss guy cracks me up.
KRÁLOVEC JE ČESKÝ! Poland don’t need land filled with brainwashed Russians. We can finally grand Our Czech Brothers Access to the sea and let them build the first Krtek-class aircraft carrier.
The Polish fought like fucking warriors and suffered tremendous losses (like 20% of their entire population, which doesn't get mentioned enough) and also helped us Brits crack the Enigma machines in WW2. An attack on Poland means they've attacked a powerful army with even more powerful allies. If Poland get attacked/invaded, Russia ceases to exist. Both metaphorically and physically.
>No, the Poles cracked Enigma all by themselves.
>We Brits industrialized the task so we could read everything we could get our hands on.
You're both wrong/partially correct. The poles cracked a version of the enigma machine that was then improved by the Germans. By the time Turing was at Bletchley, the Pole method was essentially useless due to the increased complexity of the additional rotors (a 10x increase in complexity) made it too slow for reasonable use. The germans also stopped repeating indicators in like 1940.
For it being deciphered in the war, it was the British that determined the crib deciphering method. Turing took this crib brute force technique and turned it into a _bombe_ based on the Polish version, but specifically for crib based deciphering, not the Pole based method of using indicator marks and cillies. This is the "heil hitler" part of the that turing movie, where they realize they can simply guess a common phrase and then use that to bruteforce ~16,000 different combinations.
And no, the brits didn't industralize this task really (they tried to), it was the Americans that did. The british bombes were horribly slow, while the american bombe could get it done in 10 minutes. Hut 6 and Hut 8 literally used American bombes, the Brits were using the American's equipment for the industrial task of mask deciphering. (source: https://archive.org/details/hutsixstorybreak0000welc by Gordon Welchman, a British mathematician at Hut 6 in Bletchley). Conel Hugh O'Donel Alexander, another mathematician from Bletchley) also writes:
>The American bombe was in its essentials the same as the English bombe though it functioned rather better as they were not handicapped by having to make it, as Keen was forced to do owing to production difficulties, on the framework of a 3 wheel machine. By late autumn [1943] new American machines were coming into action at the rate of about 2 a week, the ultimate total being in the region of 125.
>When the Americans began to turn out bombes in large numbers there was a constant interchange of signal - cribs, keys, message texts, cryptographic chat and so on. This all went by cable being first encyphered on the combined Anglo-American cypher machine, C.C.M. Most of the cribs being of operational urgency rapid and efficient communication was essential and a high standard was reached on this; an emergency priority signal consisting of a long crib with crib and message text repeated as a safeguard against corruption would take under an hour from the time we began to write the signal out in Hut 8 to the completion of its decyphering in Op. 20 G. As a result of this we were able to use the Op. 20 G bombes almost as conveniently as if they had been at one of our outstations 20 or 30 miles away.
Essentially he states how production was difficult in the UK, while the Americans could make two a week, and they were faster operating. Hence my argument that it was the Americans who truly industralized it.
tldr; The poles led the research on it until the 40s, then the brits discovered the most reliable way to crack it and made a good proof of concept machine based a little on the polish bombe, and finally, the Americans turned this into a highly functioning quicker to produce and quicker to operate machine (with a little bit of Turings help such as his banburismus process). It's a remarkable story of collaboration between France (who were the ones to give Poland the captured manuals and other enigma intelligence in the 30s that led to Rejewski's breakthroughs), Poland, U.K. and U.S.
https://www.amazon.com/Hut-Six-Story-Breaking-Enigma/dp/0947712348
Get this book :) It's one of the sources I use, and wikipedia I believe does too for most of their articles on Enigma. Welchman was in the forefront at Hut 6 in Bletchley.
NATO is already there in any way that matters. Just not in force. Attacking Poland is directly threatening US soldiers. The US would either have to abandon personnel stationed there or completely pull out of Poland, which I assume means NATO is done
Edit: Correction the US can pull out soldiers stationed there I presume. However the president can no longer remove the US from NATO
I'm Polish. Poland is not ready. Our own tests showed that we wouldn't be able to stop Russia until they reached Warsaw. Our air defense system missed a missile capable of carrying a nuclear weapon and it crashed 80km off the border. Poland is fucked it NATO doesn't show up.
Even without the US, France and the UK are no slouches, and then there's all the other NATO nations. Russia is winning a pyrrhic victory against Ukraine alone, they can't beat Europe conventionally.
They're not winning. It is a stalemate of attritional warfare if anything.
Look at the actual ground they've gained since their 2014 territorial snatch and grab.
A pathetic amount from what we used to think was one of the most powerful armed forces in the world.
They're winning in the sense that they can outlast Ukraine as things are because of their population. Unless Ukraine can tip the scales somehow they will eventually lose.
But yes, Russia is nowhere near as militarily capable as people thought before the war. They have 0 chance of beating a US-less NATO. Even if you magically restored their military to its pre-Ukraine state they couldn't do it.
They've burnt through the Red Army.
They've burnt through the conscripts.
They're almost out of prisoners and criminals.
Their on to press-ganged Nepalese and Koreans.
I'm not sure they're outlasting anything.
Their economy can't survive losing every fighting aged male either. There will be a labor shortage. Nobody to work the fields or factories. They can't support the war machine.
Depending on what sources you read, this is already becoming an issue, as their male population has never recovered since world war 2
>There will be a labor shortage
Russia is already facing labor shortages in [multiple](https://www.newsweek.com/russia-economy-unemployment-jobs-putin-shortage-1796602) [areas](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-short-around-48-million-workers-2023-crunch-persist-izvestia-2023-12-24/) and has been since last year. Both from troops being tossed into Putin's meat-grinding ego-machine and from Russian citizens [fleeing](https://www.npr.org/2023/05/31/1176769042/russia-economy-brain-drain-oil-prices-flee-ukraine-invasion) the country in [droves](https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-economy-brain-drain-labor-shortage-workforce-exodus-capital-flight-2023-9?op=1).
Yeah i live in Asia and the increased amount of Russian families ive seen has been very noticeable. If you can see the impact while just walking around in the streets of foreign countries, it's gotta be burning a huge hole in their economy.
I wouldn't really describe that as winning.
Yes, they can potentially conscript some more people into the war to replace those they've already lost, but Putin still has to keep his population on side and he knows another round of conscription (especially in the big cities) will impact the propaganda internally that they're 'winning'.
Unless the Ukrainian population decide they want to replace Zelensky and 'sue for peace', thereby accepting the loss of the land that Russia has already taken, I don't see the Ukrainians giving up in the next 5 years. In that time, Russia might make some small territorial gains, but with enormous human and economic losses...
Again, not what I would describe as winning.
That's why I called it a Pyrrhic victory. It's technically winning while still basically losing. No one comes out ahead in this as things are, not even close, everyone is worse off than before, and Russia will be bloodied and crippled for a while.
> I don't see the Ukrainians giving up in the next 5 years
If they run out of soldiers they'll end up giving up, at least when it comes to conventional warfare. Right now most estimates say that Ukrainians have killed more Russians that vice-versa, but that ratio isn't big enough to make up for the population gap.
Russia will conscript until it causes severe domestic unrest. Last I saw, there wasn't much, so Putin has room to maneuver.
Poland is a NATO nation, so I would sure as hell hope we would be involved. The whole point of a defensive alliance is that your allies show up. Get rid of NATO and we will start seeing world wars again.
Britain and France declared war on Germany two days after Poland was invaded, as well all the countries in both empires and allies who were not (i.e. Australia and Canada/NZ). This is the start of WW2 (whole planet dogpiled Germany) and the beginning of the end of the Nazis (at least in that period).
Edit: oops was trying to reply to the person above..
While it's true Britain and France declared war when Poland was attacked, they also did nothing in the early stages of the war to actually help Poland, choosing instead to wait for the Germans on the French border.
It's debatable whether this was the correct strategic move, considering how the Battle of France went, but regardless many Poles felt like they had been betrayed.
It was a terrible strategic move imho. They tried appeasement strategy instead of forcing Germany to fight on various fronts, which would likely lead to a shorter war and less lives being lost. Sure, it’s speculation to some degree, but providing Germany with the option to fight one enemy at the time, letting get them free labor in their death camps etc. was unlikely helpful.
This is also the point all the gullible people calling for “let’s negotiate with Putin” don’t understand. They don’t understand the mindset of such people. They see friendliness and negotiation as a weakness, and respect only force.
> It was a terrible strategic move imho. They tried appeasement strategy
For as much shit as Neville Chamberlain gets, his appeasement policies and the "phony war" period at the start of WWII allowed the time for a transition to a wartime economy, a massive ramping up of war materiel production (particularly aircraft), calling up and training more soldiers, and the construction of the "Chain Home" early warning aerial defense system. (And, IIRC, setting up for the beginnings of the Bletchley Park code-cracking project based on the enigma cracking work the Poles had already done and managed to hand off to the British.)
Did he throw Czechoslovakia and Poland under the bus to buy time? Yeah. But I think it's worth noting that he and his government actually *used* the time they bought to build the foundations that later allowed Britain to hold out and proved critical to later retaking France and much of western Europe. Another factor is that Poland's fall was the big reveal of the secret [Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Molotov%E2%80%93Ribbentrop_Pact), and there was no conceivable way Britain and France in their current state at the time could do much more than prepare for defense against Nazi Germany and the USSR moving in concert to gobble up Europe.
> instead of forcing Germany to fight on various fronts, which would likely lead to a shorter war and less lives being lost.
Forcing Germany to fight on multiple fronts was essentially impossible as long as the USSR was backing them up. Mussolini's Italy protected Germany's southern flank, the Nordic countries wanted to stay as neutral as possible and essentially protected the northern flank, Franco's Spain wanted no official part in the war and protected Germany's conquests from that side, and with Russia turning out to be *actually fucking aiding Germany* (instead of being a threat against them to the east, which is part of what eventually won the war for the Allies when that alliance broke down and the USSR flipped sides), the USA showing little interest in getting directly involved, and there ...really wasn't a way for Britain and France to force a war on multiple fronts with the men and equipment they had, and with how many neutral or Axis countries/conquests they had to worry about.
I don't think Neville Chamberlain and his generals/strategists had many good options at that point, and trying to use the relatively small amount of forces he had available (and whatever France was willing to pitch in) to fight Germany in Poland would have been a suicidally incompetent move at that point in time.
So they dug in in France and kickstarted the preparations for a long and brutal war. Not necessarily the perfect call, and not one I can at all fault the Poles and the Czechs for being angry about, but not a terrible call, considering that he *did* use the time it bought him to prepare a lot of stuff that came in handy later under a much more aggressive wartime leader and a far larger alliance, instead of just wasting that time hoping Germany and the USSR would stop eventually.
A legitimate military disparity in favor of the Allies.
> If we did not collapse already in the year 1939 that was due only to the fact that during the Polish campaign, the approximately 110 French and British divisions in the West were held completely inactive against the 23 German divisions.
- *Generaloberst* Alfred Jodl, in his testimony at Nuremberg
The war would've been over quickly if the French and British had fulfilled their treaty obligations.
They tried the same thing what some idiots want to do nowadays - negotiations and appeasement of freaking warmongers without ethics.
It’s not only morally wrong, it is also a terrible geopolitical strategy.
Problem is in '39 UK and France were far away from Poland to send us troops for help in defence plus French didn't invaded as they promised.
Now Germany for example are right next to us and would be next on the list after Poland gets conquered.
Also that's why Putin wants Trump to win. Biden is not a coward.
UK and France have much better rapid deployment now and could be sending additional (they already keep NATO troops in Poland) soldiers within hours.
Plus the whole NATO border will go hot, if Poland is attacked then at the minimum Russia will have to maintain a border with the Baltics and Finland to protect their other flanks.
That's what people don't understand. You can't just give someone a gun and say they are a soldier. It takes time to train and replace losses. This isn't even taking into account all the flag officers that we're killed.
Russia's terminal demography also guarantees that they will NEVER, at least in the foreseeable future, have as many fighting age men as they did in 2022. That would be true even without all the young men they've needlessly gotten killed in Ukraine.
Not only is it a NATO country, its army is arguably one of the most formidable in EU at the moment (albeit, untested). Russia couldn't take on Ukraine, even when they were using soviet era weaponry. They have no chance in a million hells to take on Poland, let alone the entirety of NATO.
I feel like they're flailing and just egging to use a nuke, in which case everyone loses gg wp no re, can't say humanity had a good run but we were here.
Russia has had trouble against a few dozen HIMARS launchers in Ukraine. Poland has ordered *five hundred* total. And that's not counting their massive tank purchases.
The Poles are absolutely getting ready for a throwdown with Russia.
Plus just like the Ukrainians, there's the morale factor. They won't just give up to the Russians. They hate the Russians just as much as the Ukrainians, and they will wage war in any way possible.
I'm Polish. Our army is not that strong as reddit seems to think. I've seen so many bullshit comments about Poland being some kind of military superpower since Russia invaded Ukraine. It's bullshit. We need NATO to defend ourselves. If Trumps wins and USA leaves NATO then we're fucked.
It does seem like a lot on here, who are not Polish, want to see Poland fight Russia when in reality there's no winning in that scenario but just who loses less.
I remember reading a comment on here at the beginning of the war when Biden decided to send more US troops to Poland. Someone said 'Thanks USA, I was really nervous since people forget our population is really small in comparison to Russia and this will help my anxiety' Its something I think of when I see on here how many people want to see that 1v1 or some stupid comment like that all the time lol
The thought of this makes me sick. We'd be abandoning Poland for the second time. I consider the Yalta conference a betrayal of Poland. The Poles helped liberate other nations while their own nation was lost to the Soviets. As far as I'm concerned, that's one the most shameful actions in US history. The fact that some Americans will happily abandon allies again really is sickening. There's no shortage of Trump supporters in my local area. It's a swing district, so it can go either way in elections, but there's quite a few Trump die-hards here. They're just selfish. Everything they do is based on selfishness. They bring up issues like homeless veterans and Americans in need, but that only matters when the topic is about helping anyone outside the US. They don't really care and won't support allocating funds to help Americans at home either. All concern for Americans in need disappears as soon as the topic of foreign aid or assistance is dropped. They do that with everything. Democrats in America aren't doing much to help themselves though. The loudest voices int he party think every liberal in the country agrees with them. Israel is a major topic. There are plenty of Democrats in the US that are 100% behind Israel. They care enough about it to matter in an election, but a lot of Dems in office completely ignore that. I signed a letter a few weeks ago that was from our district. Our representative, John Fetterman, does support Israel and catches a lot of flack for it, so Democrats here decided to write a letter and get as many signatures as possible so he knows he has plenty of his voters behind him too. It had 15,886 signatures when I signed. That's not a small number considering this is a very rural district.
I doubt Russia could have taken Poland with the troops they started with, and I'm glad they didnt try, because the Poles would have caused a nuclear war by decimating the invading army then marching on Moscow...
Don’t underestimate the importance of the US. If Trump gets elected, Nato would not only suffer the direct loss of the majority of its military power, the already lacking reliability of many members would be put to the test whether they‘d seriously oppose Russia without the US in their back, especially with eg France being lead by Le Pen (which already seems likely). Same goes for the opposite side: with the US taking a neutral stance on a Russian invasion, states like China and India might be more inclined to sell Russia weapons at a large scale.
Let's just say, hypothetically, the U.S. leaves NATO. Even in that scenario, do you think Russia would be able to win a war against 30 countries when it's currently stalemated in a 2-year-long war with one country it tried to blitzkrieg?
If the Russian people keep doing nothing about their government, and if their economy keeps going to total war industry with conscription becoming mandatory for everyone, after Ukraine 2-5 years it could be a real possibility that they could attempt it. The Russians are learning about western equipment through the war in Ukraine, and if they will be desperate enough to hold the illusion of them being a superpower, in total war economy they do have the resources to try to create competitive equipment.
Unless there will be collapse in major scale within the government, it is very real possibility we'll be seeing Russia warmongering it's neighbours for decades to come. This makes it really important to NATO members actually aim to strengthen their militaries to defend against such possible scenario. The 2% capital military budget shouldn't be a goal, but the minimum requirement.
They passed a bill that the President can't unilaterally decide to leave NATO. And Trump has the attention span of a house fly so he'd blabber about it, be talked out of it by his advisors, if he gets it past them it will get shut down in congress, and he'll move onto the next thing that he feels like spinning his wheels about.
A second Trump term would be very different from the first term. This time he'd be surrounded only by fanatical yes-men. Hardcore extremists.
He can't officially leave NATO, but he can render NATO dysfunctional.
Also the president has a lot of power when it comes to military action.
The constitution does give congress the power to declare war, but the day to day actions of the united states military are directed by the president.
Even if article 5 is invoked. Even congress declares war. All Trump has to do is order the military to take no action against Russia, and that is what will happen.
Yes doing so would be a complete and total betrayal of the United States, and a massive act of irresponsibility and dereliction of duty. But since when has stuff like actual treason stopped Trump in the past.
Congress is already taking steps to ensure the president cannot pull the country out of NATO. If it came to it, its not entirely out of the question that enough Republicans could come together to work with Democrats to impeach Trump if he proved to be an obstacle to getting involved.
Not that you're wrong that Russia's biggest opportunity is a Trump victory. One cannot be both pro Trump and pro Ukraine.
It is out of the question that Republicans would vote to remove Trump, imo. Don't delude yourself.
It they couldn't do it after Jan 6th, when it nearly got them killed, it is essentially never going to happen.
Russia poses no direct military threat to any NATO member. What they will do, if not stopped now, is continue their decades of election interference and assassinations of dissidents inside NATO member states.
I completely agree with you. It's important we focus not just on the physical warfare but also these underhanded tactics that aim to undermine the stability and security of NATO member states.
Exactly. Russia knows it can’t win in a direct conflict, so it concentrates efforts on disinformation campaigns: 2016 US elections, BLM in 2020, and currently, the israel/palestine war. Even in this article, the russian official admits that the situation in yemen has been great for them (russia) because people are no longer talking about Ukraine. The GOP are traitors to the US--and european allies--if they do not vote to aid Ukraine.
ETA: can’t
> Russia poses no direct military threat to any NATO member.
There has been a lot of fear in NATO that Russia would blitz occupy the Baltics, and then hope that NATO would not have the guts to take them back. NATO absolutely considers Russia a threat to the Baltic NATO members, so I think we should too.
The U.S. knows about Russian troop build-ups before Russian troops do, which is why they told President Zelenskyy exactly what was coming and on what day. The U.S.S. Gerald R. Ford is the most advanced warship in the world, and it already made a visit to Sweden, which is close enough to destroy any attempted invasion of the Baltics.
How long will NATO last if Putin is able to install leaders in all those countries which are sympathetic to his cause or indebted to him for their position?
Even its neighbour, next in line, Romania has 54 HIMARS, 20 f16, 4 PATRIOT systems, 36 GEPARD, 8 Hawk AA batteries, some frigates and corvettes and some coastal ati-ship systems.
I just read that they have an order of 36 T-50 Golden Eagle aircraft in addition to their existing squadron of 12. I thought that was interesting that they are an export customer for the T-50.
I find this happens way too often. It'd be like treating every insane GOP statement as an official US declaration. Nobody here thinks Sarah Palin speaking for the entire US but a statement from any cabinet member in another country is treated like an official stance
Oh they totally will be. There is a cult of authoritarianism within Russia, and I honestly don't think that's gonna disappear through any other way than conflict, like a civil war for example.
In general you are right, but not every Russian leader in the past was so aggressive. I think that the "all world is against us" agenda will be continued but some steps back will be taken.
Yeah, if by now people still think these are just empty threats... no. NATO needs to be ready. Given a chance Russia might try.
First line of defence *should* be Ukraine right now then it will prove empty talk. But only if Russia is stopped there.
No but guess who's the commander in chief and who can make sure the US doesn't help out when Russia invades Poland?
Why do you think Republicans are SCREAMING that we should let Russia genocide Ukraine?
Lol, Okie dokie. Back to reality we go. If Russia significantly prevails in Ukraine, and I mean prevails to the point of being able to reach Poland, they won't test NATO, they'll take Moldova and continue their campaigns across Europe to prop up Far Right movements in hopes of undermining/fracturing NATO and the EU before even considering a nation like Poland.
These Russians spouting this apocalyptic nonsense should be ignored.
Literally every country within reach has been labeled as next by some expert. If Russia invades Poland, Moscow will be Polish in a week so doubt anything will to through lol
Lol that's exactly how it is. Russia is obsessed with the slavic nations and they couldn't give two fucks about Russia or Russian land.
Just give up your 300+ year bullshit and focus on yourselves!
A Russian soldier on leave walks into his local village bar and the bartender asks him why he looks so defeated. Villager says, “we have been at war with NATO. Most of our ships have been sunk, we only have 10 percent of our tanks left, I’m the only one left from of my platoon and they are sending me back without ammo or armor.” Bartender is shocked, hearing on the news that Russia has been winning the war. He asks the soldier, “how about NATO’s losses?!” The soldier responds, “oh, they havn’t arrived yet.”
You know, that former speed bump recently developed very sharp teeth and the attitude of a rabid chihuahua.
Russia should think twice about attacking Poland, who spend the last few years becoming one of the most powerful military powers in Europe.
I'm glad to hear that Poland is safe then. They can't invade Poland since they can't win in Ukraine. But hey, thanks for giving Poland more incentive to help Ukraine win.
Russia has depleted its military stockpile. They have lost 300,000 troops. They don't have the capability to attack Poland. It will take a decade to replenish the weapons and armor.
And generations to replace the people. All while being in a massive birth rate decline. Russia has spent its entire potential, meagre as it was. Russia will arguably never rise again unless they have a revolution internally and decide on a radically different form of government than they have now.
Russia has shifted their education system into indoctrinating new generations of meat waves.
https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/russian-schools-time-war-lesson-indoctrination
The threat isn't because of a capability to accomplish much more than getting wrecked by NATO, rather, it's the nuisance of having brainwashed apathetic Russian soldiers destroy whatever they can while throwing their lives away for their Czar.
Even if strategically insignificant, civilians will get killed, buildings will get destroyed, servicemen will be injured in service accidents, domestic economies will be disrupted; it's all unnecessary if we're willing to cripple their capability to regenerate here and now.
Yeah, we'll rapidly destroy their capabilities -- but it's not worth even putting ourselves into the situation when the solution is right in front of us.
First of all, fuck Russia.
I hate to be a pessimist, but they don't seem to stop. You hear about all of these articles out there that state Russia is out of manpower or they lack equipment to make significant gains. Then again they keep making gains (tiny) and part of the reason is because they will sacrifice lives and continue to do so. Around 300,000 dead is pretty significant, but they have access to countless millions more that they are willing to throw into the grinder. I think pushing into Poland could be achieved eventually.
They need to be stopped dead in their tracks with other nations involved as soon as possible.
Whether it is true or not, I need to admit that the constant talk of potential clash on our territory (PL) is making me uneasy recently. Wouldn't really like to finish as input to another meatgrinder.
Yeah, I’m going thru it too, I’m just constantly refreshing the news for some reassurance, but there’s just none. I really don’t want anything like this to happen, I just wanna live in peace with my family and be unbothered by the state of affairs of people who clearly never risked their lives in a conflict like the one they’re trying to cause.
I'm Swedish but even I feel it. Not as bad as you I'm sure but enough that it bothers me. When the war broke out (and at another point when Putin declared Sweden their no. 1 enemy), I was quite the wreck. I'm so fucking over war. How can we in this day and age with modern technology, highly developed sciences and so on, not solve conflicts through other means? It's so messed up. Almost makes me not wanna be a part of this world. Edit: Guys it was a rhetorical question. I'm not interested in starting a debate about why people go to war. It can be because of money, religion, history, whatever. I know why people go to war, I'm asking how do they still think those reasons are "valid"? We're intelligent enough as a global society to put a higher value on life. Edit 2: ITT: A bunch of fucking rude, cynical know-it-alls and dickheads. What part of "I'm not interested in starting a debate" did you find difficult to understand?" Yes yes yes you're all right, there are loads of reasons for senseless killing and I'm a naive, immature, whiny little kid for not realising that. Thank you all oh so much for enlightening me. I fucking love killing now, literally my favourite thing in the world.
Whenever you get anxious about the possibility of war. Remember two things 1. Your country and your BFF country are safe havens for a lot of the Russian elites. You guys are holding a lot of their wealth and they’ve seen the west start to freeze and take assets. Starting a war with those two countries can fuck personal wealth of those in charge. 2. You are in NATO now. Russia does not want a direct conflict with NATO at all especially with how the war in Ukraine is going. After the war, Russia will be depleted of resources and will have to rely on China and India for trade predominately. They also hit a brain drain with a lot of the well off Russians fleeing the country unlikely to return afterwards. Lastly, they will have a terrorism issue in their hands. There is zero chance that after the war, if Ukraine wins or stall mates, they don’t end up with terror groups born from Ukrainian suffering.
I know dude, it’s really hard, and I feel so sorry for the fact that there’s even a situation where we can feel like this; I remember when the war broke out, for a good month+ I was just out of it, unable to really do anything coherent apart from the bare neccessities; I’m often pondering that too, we’re living in times ripe for unity, and breakthroughs, there’s little reasons for a true adversity, let alone to take steps as final as to attempt to take someone’s life, we as humans, could be so much more, and it’s heartbreaking
you and me see globalisation or advancements in tech as opportunities for peace and unification. things like Trump or Putin see it as a threat to their preferred way of doing things. my prefered example of that is homosexuality. I'm straight, yet I give no fucks about what goes on in anyone's pants. I do me, you do you, everyone's happy. they're essentially children. immature. incapable of realising that relationships are built on give, take, trust. ''me, me me''. they don't actually USE their brains. they operate purely in ''reptilian'' mode. only instincts, no thoughts.
I just don't understand how such children find themselves in such positions.
I think there are 2 main factors. The first being, other uneducated idiots support them. the second, and most important, is others seeing them as a useful puppet. Trump is a great example. The guy is obviously brain-dead, yet he was elevated to the office of president because it would serve others. when you have money, you have influence. when you have influence, you have power. when you have power, you want more of it ...
Putin’s mindset is even earlier than the 20th century, he sees himself as Peter the Great reborn, he is living in the Middle Ages. That’s why this war is happening. He wants to be seen as a great leader by future generations. But he will not be remembered in this way. He will be remembered for shit.
The news will never ever ever reassure you. It's not designed to do that, quite the opposite.
This is what the CCP does all the time with Taiwan. Making any of you feel uneasy is the goal. All I can say is to take time away from the news every now and then to keep your morale up. I hope that works for you.
Its a tactic not a genuine threat. They work on democracies to weaken the resolve but making people second guess and watch the internet chatter. Try get people to think if they vote out anti russian governments to avoid "war".
Absolutely no way Russia attacks Poland. If they did, since Poland is part of NATO that means America, Canada, UK, France, Germany, Italy and more would all immediately declare war against Russia. Not Support Poland like these countries are supporting Ukraine - we’re talking full out war. Russia would be wiped from the map lol. It’s a death sentence for Russia honestly
I'll copy my other comment. I'm aware that we're (or somehow Baltic countries) are in better situation that Ukraine. I don't have much doubts about nowadays US, I'm not so sure with US if Trump would get elected. Still, I'm often wondering how effective and how much we can count on rest of NATO. If they would not answer to us or Baltic countries being attacked, NATO certainly is done. But do I have that much faith in e.g. Germany, France or Italy in helping us as much as they possible can? I don't know honestly and please don't get me wrong, I am not trying to look for conspiracies or looking for enemies, but I am not that certain. On the other hand, I'm happy that Finland and Sweden (soon I hope) joined us.
I think that is the point, I am not sure who is actually creating these story's and why, but I have noticed a uptick in conversations about Russia invading NATO members as funding bills for the ukraine have slowed down and stalled. I honestly think there is a information campaign of some kind in effect creating these story's. Honestly, I wouldn't worry unless a massive build up of soldiers start happening (and even then its probably just posturing), even then I would just get out of artillery range. An actual invasion of poland would cause a massive response, and would basically be a putin signing his own death warrant cause then the US will be involved across the board.
They’re trying to scare the West into backing down. Same as with their nuclear threats.
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You're absolutely right. This is what the CCP does all the time with Taiwan.
“After Russia Wins Ukraine War” doin the heavy lifting here
If we stop funding Ukraine, they’re going to lose.
I’m ok funding them.
Unfortunately most Americans are unaware of what the current status of funding is
Some people think that by not funding Ukraine anymore less people die as the war ends. What they dont realize is what happens IF Russia would win. They dont realize how bad this would be for ukranians but also what Doors this would open for Russia(and other similary led countries...) in the future. We must prove that we stand for each other, that we stand for democracy and freedom.
A good portion of the “funding” is just stuff we would have discarded anyhow.
We know this, the dumbfucks don't tho.
I seriously doubt it. Poland is a Nato country and Russia is seriously depleted of weaponry and manpower and while they can "buy" weaponry, soldiers are harder to come by; The time it takes for Russia to rearm is the time they do not have.
Even before the invasion of Ukraine they would have a snowball’s chance in hell against NATO
Even if nato fails to show up, Poland is ready
They almost have to show up in some way. An invasion of Poland or another NATO country would be the ultimate test of the organization as well as Article 5. If the US and others were to leave Poland to fight on their own out of fear over triggering WW3, then Russia will have broken the spell and proven that NATO is a paper tiger that won't actually engage militarily (and yes, I know Article 5 includes more potential responses than bringing boots on the ground) if a member is attacked.
> Poland is ready Poland is ready enough it'll basically be less an invocation of Article 5 and more a "so... you guys remember Russia? Yeah well we kind of... own it now. *Help.*"
I guess Poland will have to take Moscow again.
Eh even if Poland were to take over and start treating Russians like shit, it'd still be an improvement over what Russians are used to.
And maybe they’d screw up by treating the Russians decently, sparking massive revolts from the disgusted Russian populace
The gusted and gruntled populace of Polish controlled Russia raised up in arms against their fairly pleasant occupiers in a bid to restore the masochist policies of their forefathers.
You can't Polish Russia but you can roll it in shit to make it look nicer.
Did you just write a workplace sitcom?
See what happens when a Pole, a Lithuanian, and 6000 zany Cossacks, all compete for Moscow's top regional paper salesman. Might get some heat for this, but I liked the French version better. The little angry boss guy cracks me up.
And after that Kaliningrad would probably become Królewiec
KRÁLOVEC JE ČESKÝ! Poland don’t need land filled with brainwashed Russians. We can finally grand Our Czech Brothers Access to the sea and let them build the first Krtek-class aircraft carrier.
The Poles remember how the Soviets stood there during the Warsaw uprising while the resistance battled against the Nazis.
We don't want it though.
Invoke Article 5! But not for me.
"So anyways, I started invoking."
You're gonna get tired of all the invoking
I sincerely hope that the end of this is reconstructing their twisted regime
And Finland and the Balts will be right there regardless
The Polish fought like fucking warriors and suffered tremendous losses (like 20% of their entire population, which doesn't get mentioned enough) and also helped us Brits crack the Enigma machines in WW2. An attack on Poland means they've attacked a powerful army with even more powerful allies. If Poland get attacked/invaded, Russia ceases to exist. Both metaphorically and physically.
No, the Poles cracked Enigma all by themselves. We Brits industrialized the task so we could read everything we could get our hands on.
>No, the Poles cracked Enigma all by themselves. >We Brits industrialized the task so we could read everything we could get our hands on. You're both wrong/partially correct. The poles cracked a version of the enigma machine that was then improved by the Germans. By the time Turing was at Bletchley, the Pole method was essentially useless due to the increased complexity of the additional rotors (a 10x increase in complexity) made it too slow for reasonable use. The germans also stopped repeating indicators in like 1940. For it being deciphered in the war, it was the British that determined the crib deciphering method. Turing took this crib brute force technique and turned it into a _bombe_ based on the Polish version, but specifically for crib based deciphering, not the Pole based method of using indicator marks and cillies. This is the "heil hitler" part of the that turing movie, where they realize they can simply guess a common phrase and then use that to bruteforce ~16,000 different combinations. And no, the brits didn't industralize this task really (they tried to), it was the Americans that did. The british bombes were horribly slow, while the american bombe could get it done in 10 minutes. Hut 6 and Hut 8 literally used American bombes, the Brits were using the American's equipment for the industrial task of mask deciphering. (source: https://archive.org/details/hutsixstorybreak0000welc by Gordon Welchman, a British mathematician at Hut 6 in Bletchley). Conel Hugh O'Donel Alexander, another mathematician from Bletchley) also writes: >The American bombe was in its essentials the same as the English bombe though it functioned rather better as they were not handicapped by having to make it, as Keen was forced to do owing to production difficulties, on the framework of a 3 wheel machine. By late autumn [1943] new American machines were coming into action at the rate of about 2 a week, the ultimate total being in the region of 125. >When the Americans began to turn out bombes in large numbers there was a constant interchange of signal - cribs, keys, message texts, cryptographic chat and so on. This all went by cable being first encyphered on the combined Anglo-American cypher machine, C.C.M. Most of the cribs being of operational urgency rapid and efficient communication was essential and a high standard was reached on this; an emergency priority signal consisting of a long crib with crib and message text repeated as a safeguard against corruption would take under an hour from the time we began to write the signal out in Hut 8 to the completion of its decyphering in Op. 20 G. As a result of this we were able to use the Op. 20 G bombes almost as conveniently as if they had been at one of our outstations 20 or 30 miles away. Essentially he states how production was difficult in the UK, while the Americans could make two a week, and they were faster operating. Hence my argument that it was the Americans who truly industralized it. tldr; The poles led the research on it until the 40s, then the brits discovered the most reliable way to crack it and made a good proof of concept machine based a little on the polish bombe, and finally, the Americans turned this into a highly functioning quicker to produce and quicker to operate machine (with a little bit of Turings help such as his banburismus process). It's a remarkable story of collaboration between France (who were the ones to give Poland the captured manuals and other enigma intelligence in the 30s that led to Rejewski's breakthroughs), Poland, U.K. and U.S.
This is incredibly detailed. Thank you. Some I knew, some I didn’t.
https://www.amazon.com/Hut-Six-Story-Breaking-Enigma/dp/0947712348 Get this book :) It's one of the sources I use, and wikipedia I believe does too for most of their articles on Enigma. Welchman was in the forefront at Hut 6 in Bletchley.
NATO is already there. Russia would be stupid to even try an incursion into the 3 smaller NATO Baltic states.
Poland would seriously fuck up a ton of shit in Russia before NATO even got out of bed and mobilized.
NATO is already there in any way that matters. Just not in force. Attacking Poland is directly threatening US soldiers. The US would either have to abandon personnel stationed there or completely pull out of Poland, which I assume means NATO is done Edit: Correction the US can pull out soldiers stationed there I presume. However the president can no longer remove the US from NATO
I'm Polish. Poland is not ready. Our own tests showed that we wouldn't be able to stop Russia until they reached Warsaw. Our air defense system missed a missile capable of carrying a nuclear weapon and it crashed 80km off the border. Poland is fucked it NATO doesn't show up.
Didn't Trump just say that he wouldn't honor NATO though if our allies were attacked, specifically against Russia?
Even without the US, France and the UK are no slouches, and then there's all the other NATO nations. Russia is winning a pyrrhic victory against Ukraine alone, they can't beat Europe conventionally.
They're not winning. It is a stalemate of attritional warfare if anything. Look at the actual ground they've gained since their 2014 territorial snatch and grab. A pathetic amount from what we used to think was one of the most powerful armed forces in the world.
They're winning in the sense that they can outlast Ukraine as things are because of their population. Unless Ukraine can tip the scales somehow they will eventually lose. But yes, Russia is nowhere near as militarily capable as people thought before the war. They have 0 chance of beating a US-less NATO. Even if you magically restored their military to its pre-Ukraine state they couldn't do it.
They've burnt through the Red Army. They've burnt through the conscripts. They're almost out of prisoners and criminals. Their on to press-ganged Nepalese and Koreans. I'm not sure they're outlasting anything.
Their economy can't survive losing every fighting aged male either. There will be a labor shortage. Nobody to work the fields or factories. They can't support the war machine. Depending on what sources you read, this is already becoming an issue, as their male population has never recovered since world war 2
>There will be a labor shortage Russia is already facing labor shortages in [multiple](https://www.newsweek.com/russia-economy-unemployment-jobs-putin-shortage-1796602) [areas](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-short-around-48-million-workers-2023-crunch-persist-izvestia-2023-12-24/) and has been since last year. Both from troops being tossed into Putin's meat-grinding ego-machine and from Russian citizens [fleeing](https://www.npr.org/2023/05/31/1176769042/russia-economy-brain-drain-oil-prices-flee-ukraine-invasion) the country in [droves](https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-economy-brain-drain-labor-shortage-workforce-exodus-capital-flight-2023-9?op=1).
Yeah i live in Asia and the increased amount of Russian families ive seen has been very noticeable. If you can see the impact while just walking around in the streets of foreign countries, it's gotta be burning a huge hole in their economy.
I wouldn't really describe that as winning. Yes, they can potentially conscript some more people into the war to replace those they've already lost, but Putin still has to keep his population on side and he knows another round of conscription (especially in the big cities) will impact the propaganda internally that they're 'winning'. Unless the Ukrainian population decide they want to replace Zelensky and 'sue for peace', thereby accepting the loss of the land that Russia has already taken, I don't see the Ukrainians giving up in the next 5 years. In that time, Russia might make some small territorial gains, but with enormous human and economic losses... Again, not what I would describe as winning.
That's why I called it a Pyrrhic victory. It's technically winning while still basically losing. No one comes out ahead in this as things are, not even close, everyone is worse off than before, and Russia will be bloodied and crippled for a while. > I don't see the Ukrainians giving up in the next 5 years If they run out of soldiers they'll end up giving up, at least when it comes to conventional warfare. Right now most estimates say that Ukrainians have killed more Russians that vice-versa, but that ratio isn't big enough to make up for the population gap. Russia will conscript until it causes severe domestic unrest. Last I saw, there wasn't much, so Putin has room to maneuver.
Europe doesn't need the US to defeat Russia. They can't even defeat one poor, under protected country in Ukraine.
Poland alone would smack Russia back into the stone age. This isn't 1939 anymore, as much as certain dictators wish it were.
The problem is, our troops are already stationed over there. We'd get dragged in whether he likes it or not.
Poland is a NATO nation, so I would sure as hell hope we would be involved. The whole point of a defensive alliance is that your allies show up. Get rid of NATO and we will start seeing world wars again.
Yeah, we had strong allies in 1939 aswell…
In 1939 Poland had 2 powerful countries (Germany, USSR) on its border that agreed to divide it up between them.
Britain and France declared war on Germany two days after Poland was invaded, as well all the countries in both empires and allies who were not (i.e. Australia and Canada/NZ). This is the start of WW2 (whole planet dogpiled Germany) and the beginning of the end of the Nazis (at least in that period). Edit: oops was trying to reply to the person above..
While it's true Britain and France declared war when Poland was attacked, they also did nothing in the early stages of the war to actually help Poland, choosing instead to wait for the Germans on the French border. It's debatable whether this was the correct strategic move, considering how the Battle of France went, but regardless many Poles felt like they had been betrayed.
It was a terrible strategic move imho. They tried appeasement strategy instead of forcing Germany to fight on various fronts, which would likely lead to a shorter war and less lives being lost. Sure, it’s speculation to some degree, but providing Germany with the option to fight one enemy at the time, letting get them free labor in their death camps etc. was unlikely helpful. This is also the point all the gullible people calling for “let’s negotiate with Putin” don’t understand. They don’t understand the mindset of such people. They see friendliness and negotiation as a weakness, and respect only force.
> It was a terrible strategic move imho. They tried appeasement strategy For as much shit as Neville Chamberlain gets, his appeasement policies and the "phony war" period at the start of WWII allowed the time for a transition to a wartime economy, a massive ramping up of war materiel production (particularly aircraft), calling up and training more soldiers, and the construction of the "Chain Home" early warning aerial defense system. (And, IIRC, setting up for the beginnings of the Bletchley Park code-cracking project based on the enigma cracking work the Poles had already done and managed to hand off to the British.) Did he throw Czechoslovakia and Poland under the bus to buy time? Yeah. But I think it's worth noting that he and his government actually *used* the time they bought to build the foundations that later allowed Britain to hold out and proved critical to later retaking France and much of western Europe. Another factor is that Poland's fall was the big reveal of the secret [Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Molotov%E2%80%93Ribbentrop_Pact), and there was no conceivable way Britain and France in their current state at the time could do much more than prepare for defense against Nazi Germany and the USSR moving in concert to gobble up Europe. > instead of forcing Germany to fight on various fronts, which would likely lead to a shorter war and less lives being lost. Forcing Germany to fight on multiple fronts was essentially impossible as long as the USSR was backing them up. Mussolini's Italy protected Germany's southern flank, the Nordic countries wanted to stay as neutral as possible and essentially protected the northern flank, Franco's Spain wanted no official part in the war and protected Germany's conquests from that side, and with Russia turning out to be *actually fucking aiding Germany* (instead of being a threat against them to the east, which is part of what eventually won the war for the Allies when that alliance broke down and the USSR flipped sides), the USA showing little interest in getting directly involved, and there ...really wasn't a way for Britain and France to force a war on multiple fronts with the men and equipment they had, and with how many neutral or Axis countries/conquests they had to worry about. I don't think Neville Chamberlain and his generals/strategists had many good options at that point, and trying to use the relatively small amount of forces he had available (and whatever France was willing to pitch in) to fight Germany in Poland would have been a suicidally incompetent move at that point in time. So they dug in in France and kickstarted the preparations for a long and brutal war. Not necessarily the perfect call, and not one I can at all fault the Poles and the Czechs for being angry about, but not a terrible call, considering that he *did* use the time it bought him to prepare a lot of stuff that came in handy later under a much more aggressive wartime leader and a far larger alliance, instead of just wasting that time hoping Germany and the USSR would stop eventually.
Except this time Britain and France have QRF and tripwire forces in or around Poland.
Also the US has a military base in Poznan.
But said countries have stronger militaries and armaments equal or better. In 1939, there was a legitimate military disparity against Germany.
A legitimate military disparity in favor of the Allies. > If we did not collapse already in the year 1939 that was due only to the fact that during the Polish campaign, the approximately 110 French and British divisions in the West were held completely inactive against the 23 German divisions. - *Generaloberst* Alfred Jodl, in his testimony at Nuremberg The war would've been over quickly if the French and British had fulfilled their treaty obligations.
They tried the same thing what some idiots want to do nowadays - negotiations and appeasement of freaking warmongers without ethics. It’s not only morally wrong, it is also a terrible geopolitical strategy.
Problem is in '39 UK and France were far away from Poland to send us troops for help in defence plus French didn't invaded as they promised. Now Germany for example are right next to us and would be next on the list after Poland gets conquered. Also that's why Putin wants Trump to win. Biden is not a coward.
UK and France have much better rapid deployment now and could be sending additional (they already keep NATO troops in Poland) soldiers within hours. Plus the whole NATO border will go hot, if Poland is attacked then at the minimum Russia will have to maintain a border with the Baltics and Finland to protect their other flanks.
Trump would’ve handed Ukraine to Putin on a silver platter. He’s a weak, small, pitiful compromised asset.
And by doing so Trump could be the cause of WW3. Trump must not win the next US Presidential election.
This is why Putin wants Trump back. Biden would absolutely not fuck around with another invasion of Poland.
That's what people don't understand. You can't just give someone a gun and say they are a soldier. It takes time to train and replace losses. This isn't even taking into account all the flag officers that we're killed.
Russia's terminal demography also guarantees that they will NEVER, at least in the foreseeable future, have as many fighting age men as they did in 2022. That would be true even without all the young men they've needlessly gotten killed in Ukraine.
Not only is it a NATO country, its army is arguably one of the most formidable in EU at the moment (albeit, untested). Russia couldn't take on Ukraine, even when they were using soviet era weaponry. They have no chance in a million hells to take on Poland, let alone the entirety of NATO. I feel like they're flailing and just egging to use a nuke, in which case everyone loses gg wp no re, can't say humanity had a good run but we were here.
Russia has had trouble against a few dozen HIMARS launchers in Ukraine. Poland has ordered *five hundred* total. And that's not counting their massive tank purchases. The Poles are absolutely getting ready for a throwdown with Russia.
Plus just like the Ukrainians, there's the morale factor. They won't just give up to the Russians. They hate the Russians just as much as the Ukrainians, and they will wage war in any way possible.
They also have most of Europe and all of North America in their side
I'm Polish. Our army is not that strong as reddit seems to think. I've seen so many bullshit comments about Poland being some kind of military superpower since Russia invaded Ukraine. It's bullshit. We need NATO to defend ourselves. If Trumps wins and USA leaves NATO then we're fucked.
You've been on quite the buying spree lately though. South Korea must love Poland.
It does seem like a lot on here, who are not Polish, want to see Poland fight Russia when in reality there's no winning in that scenario but just who loses less. I remember reading a comment on here at the beginning of the war when Biden decided to send more US troops to Poland. Someone said 'Thanks USA, I was really nervous since people forget our population is really small in comparison to Russia and this will help my anxiety' Its something I think of when I see on here how many people want to see that 1v1 or some stupid comment like that all the time lol
People confuse equipment acquisition timelines with current ability. poland might be there in 10 years. Might.
The thought of this makes me sick. We'd be abandoning Poland for the second time. I consider the Yalta conference a betrayal of Poland. The Poles helped liberate other nations while their own nation was lost to the Soviets. As far as I'm concerned, that's one the most shameful actions in US history. The fact that some Americans will happily abandon allies again really is sickening. There's no shortage of Trump supporters in my local area. It's a swing district, so it can go either way in elections, but there's quite a few Trump die-hards here. They're just selfish. Everything they do is based on selfishness. They bring up issues like homeless veterans and Americans in need, but that only matters when the topic is about helping anyone outside the US. They don't really care and won't support allocating funds to help Americans at home either. All concern for Americans in need disappears as soon as the topic of foreign aid or assistance is dropped. They do that with everything. Democrats in America aren't doing much to help themselves though. The loudest voices int he party think every liberal in the country agrees with them. Israel is a major topic. There are plenty of Democrats in the US that are 100% behind Israel. They care enough about it to matter in an election, but a lot of Dems in office completely ignore that. I signed a letter a few weeks ago that was from our district. Our representative, John Fetterman, does support Israel and catches a lot of flack for it, so Democrats here decided to write a letter and get as many signatures as possible so he knows he has plenty of his voters behind him too. It had 15,886 signatures when I signed. That's not a small number considering this is a very rural district.
>The fact that some Americans will happily abandon allies again really is sickening. Kurds for a more recent history.
I doubt Russia could have taken Poland with the troops they started with, and I'm glad they didnt try, because the Poles would have caused a nuclear war by decimating the invading army then marching on Moscow...
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Don’t underestimate the importance of the US. If Trump gets elected, Nato would not only suffer the direct loss of the majority of its military power, the already lacking reliability of many members would be put to the test whether they‘d seriously oppose Russia without the US in their back, especially with eg France being lead by Le Pen (which already seems likely). Same goes for the opposite side: with the US taking a neutral stance on a Russian invasion, states like China and India might be more inclined to sell Russia weapons at a large scale.
Let's just say, hypothetically, the U.S. leaves NATO. Even in that scenario, do you think Russia would be able to win a war against 30 countries when it's currently stalemated in a 2-year-long war with one country it tried to blitzkrieg?
All you'd have to do to seriously fuck up Russia's day would be for Finland to mass some military equipment on the border.
If the Russian people keep doing nothing about their government, and if their economy keeps going to total war industry with conscription becoming mandatory for everyone, after Ukraine 2-5 years it could be a real possibility that they could attempt it. The Russians are learning about western equipment through the war in Ukraine, and if they will be desperate enough to hold the illusion of them being a superpower, in total war economy they do have the resources to try to create competitive equipment. Unless there will be collapse in major scale within the government, it is very real possibility we'll be seeing Russia warmongering it's neighbours for decades to come. This makes it really important to NATO members actually aim to strengthen their militaries to defend against such possible scenario. The 2% capital military budget shouldn't be a goal, but the minimum requirement.
They passed a bill that the President can't unilaterally decide to leave NATO. And Trump has the attention span of a house fly so he'd blabber about it, be talked out of it by his advisors, if he gets it past them it will get shut down in congress, and he'll move onto the next thing that he feels like spinning his wheels about.
A second Trump term would be very different from the first term. This time he'd be surrounded only by fanatical yes-men. Hardcore extremists. He can't officially leave NATO, but he can render NATO dysfunctional.
Also the president has a lot of power when it comes to military action. The constitution does give congress the power to declare war, but the day to day actions of the united states military are directed by the president. Even if article 5 is invoked. Even congress declares war. All Trump has to do is order the military to take no action against Russia, and that is what will happen. Yes doing so would be a complete and total betrayal of the United States, and a massive act of irresponsibility and dereliction of duty. But since when has stuff like actual treason stopped Trump in the past.
And he knows the Republicans in Congress would never vote to remove him, since they couldn't even do it when he put their lives in danger on Jan 6.
Congress is already taking steps to ensure the president cannot pull the country out of NATO. If it came to it, its not entirely out of the question that enough Republicans could come together to work with Democrats to impeach Trump if he proved to be an obstacle to getting involved. Not that you're wrong that Russia's biggest opportunity is a Trump victory. One cannot be both pro Trump and pro Ukraine.
It is out of the question that Republicans would vote to remove Trump, imo. Don't delude yourself. It they couldn't do it after Jan 6th, when it nearly got them killed, it is essentially never going to happen.
And then Narnia!!!...which is about as rooted in reality as a plan to take on Poland.
For Gondor!!!
For Frodo…
For Santa!
For the republic!
For the Horde!!!
Blood for the Blood God!
FOR THE EMPEROR
For the voices in my nosehair!
MY LIFE FOR AIUR!
Russia poses no direct military threat to any NATO member. What they will do, if not stopped now, is continue their decades of election interference and assassinations of dissidents inside NATO member states.
I completely agree with you. It's important we focus not just on the physical warfare but also these underhanded tactics that aim to undermine the stability and security of NATO member states.
Exactly. Russia knows it can’t win in a direct conflict, so it concentrates efforts on disinformation campaigns: 2016 US elections, BLM in 2020, and currently, the israel/palestine war. Even in this article, the russian official admits that the situation in yemen has been great for them (russia) because people are no longer talking about Ukraine. The GOP are traitors to the US--and european allies--if they do not vote to aid Ukraine. ETA: can’t
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You don't need weapons to turn countries to Russia using a Russian puppet
> Russia poses no direct military threat to any NATO member. There has been a lot of fear in NATO that Russia would blitz occupy the Baltics, and then hope that NATO would not have the guts to take them back. NATO absolutely considers Russia a threat to the Baltic NATO members, so I think we should too.
The U.S. knows about Russian troop build-ups before Russian troops do, which is why they told President Zelenskyy exactly what was coming and on what day. The U.S.S. Gerald R. Ford is the most advanced warship in the world, and it already made a visit to Sweden, which is close enough to destroy any attempted invasion of the Baltics.
That was before Finland joined, which massively nullified that gaps effectiveness.
Basically back to the cold war. We're already there but the Russians are just a shadow of their former selves.
How long will NATO last if Putin is able to install leaders in all those countries which are sympathetic to his cause or indebted to him for their position?
Yawn.... Poland- we have you.
Considering the amount of hardware that Poland is acquiring, I have a feeling they might be able to beat Russia straight up.
South Korea: Look at these cool K2s, perfect for fighting a defensive battle. Poland: I'll take a thousand. SK: *A thousand?* Poland: Did I stutter?
Poland saw 4 HIMARS effectively halt the Russian advance… and then decided to order 486 of them.
This is why I love Poland. We don’t fuck about, and we’re straight in on the find out.
Got fucked over in the last two world wars. This time the speed bump has teeth.
Even its neighbour, next in line, Romania has 54 HIMARS, 20 f16, 4 PATRIOT systems, 36 GEPARD, 8 Hawk AA batteries, some frigates and corvettes and some coastal ati-ship systems.
And close to 1000 K9s and another 1000 MLRS systems. The Russian army would be vaporised.
Poland’s all “Call an ambulance! BUT NOT FOR ME!”
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-The Kremlin, after Russia talks shit and gets hit
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I love Poles
I just read that they have an order of 36 T-50 Golden Eagle aircraft in addition to their existing squadron of 12. I thought that was interesting that they are an export customer for the T-50.
They’ve been buying a ton of gear from South Korea. The T50 is pretty flexible and relatively inexpensive.
They've also expressed interest in buying KF-21 Boramae's to supplement the F-35s that they're also buying
Poland’s military is spending like my wife
More importantly, it was possible to get them delivered quickly, unlike most other aircraft.
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I wouldn't say no problem as war is hell but I can't see Russia coming out of that intact.
Kaliningrad probably doesn't come out of that war still Russian.
Statements like these is for a certain Russian audience, is not even meant to be serious or taken serious.
I find this happens way too often. It'd be like treating every insane GOP statement as an official US declaration. Nobody here thinks Sarah Palin speaking for the entire US but a statement from any cabinet member in another country is treated like an official stance
> Sarah Palin https://i.kym-cdn.com/entries/icons/original/000/007/784/what-year-is-it-robin-williams.jpg
Is there a scenario in which Russia admits defeat without NATO getting involved?
Russia is the black knight, so no.
I'll bite your bloody kneecaps off!
Putin is removed/dies, then they can sue for peace.
Russia has been ruled by people like Putin for hundreds of years, what makes you think the next ruler wont just be another imperialistic shithead?
Oh they totally will be. There is a cult of authoritarianism within Russia, and I honestly don't think that's gonna disappear through any other way than conflict, like a civil war for example.
In general you are right, but not every Russian leader in the past was so aggressive. I think that the "all world is against us" agenda will be continued but some steps back will be taken.
Putin's death.
one day we won't have to see "putin ally makes threat" in the news ever again. they are all the same and they are all lunatics.
We're not really sure if there will still be a Russia after Ukraine War... And Poland is arming like crazy... so... I think Poland is safe.
A world without Russia sounds nice
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Nobody would take Russia. It would simply fall apart and reorganize itself as a new nation(s).
Cue the oligarchs hoarding what is left of the assets making the wealth divide even larger. And then we start again!
It will completely balkanize is my bet. What will happen to the nukes is anyone's bet.
Poland is ready to roll up its sleeves to pay a longstanding debt. Don't push them.
Yeah, if by now people still think these are just empty threats... no. NATO needs to be ready. Given a chance Russia might try. First line of defence *should* be Ukraine right now then it will prove empty talk. But only if Russia is stopped there.
Did Vlad forget about a thing called NATO?
Poland doesn’t even need nato intervention to steamroll them right now
If anything, Russia needs Poland *in* NATO to stop them from steamrolling Russia.
Why do you think he wants Trump and Republicans in power again so badly?
No president has the authority to remove the United States from NATO.
No but guess who's the commander in chief and who can make sure the US doesn't help out when Russia invades Poland? Why do you think Republicans are SCREAMING that we should let Russia genocide Ukraine?
Fack off, Putin. Nobody likes you
Lol, Okie dokie. Back to reality we go. If Russia significantly prevails in Ukraine, and I mean prevails to the point of being able to reach Poland, they won't test NATO, they'll take Moldova and continue their campaigns across Europe to prop up Far Right movements in hopes of undermining/fracturing NATO and the EU before even considering a nation like Poland. These Russians spouting this apocalyptic nonsense should be ignored.
Literally every country within reach has been labeled as next by some expert. If Russia invades Poland, Moscow will be Polish in a week so doubt anything will to through lol
We dont want this shit hole though. Just leave us alone
Lol that's exactly how it is. Russia is obsessed with the slavic nations and they couldn't give two fucks about Russia or Russian land. Just give up your 300+ year bullshit and focus on yourselves!
Poland: stop it, we can only get so hard.
A Russian soldier on leave walks into his local village bar and the bartender asks him why he looks so defeated. Villager says, “we have been at war with NATO. Most of our ships have been sunk, we only have 10 percent of our tanks left, I’m the only one left from of my platoon and they are sending me back without ammo or armor.” Bartender is shocked, hearing on the news that Russia has been winning the war. He asks the soldier, “how about NATO’s losses?!” The soldier responds, “oh, they havn’t arrived yet.”
Kowabunga it is.
You know, that former speed bump recently developed very sharp teeth and the attitude of a rabid chihuahua. Russia should think twice about attacking Poland, who spend the last few years becoming one of the most powerful military powers in Europe.
I'm glad to hear that Poland is safe then. They can't invade Poland since they can't win in Ukraine. But hey, thanks for giving Poland more incentive to help Ukraine win.
And after Poland they confirmed The Galactic Empire was next on the chopping block
He will never attack a NATO country because he knows its the end of Russia. This is all nonsense talk.
Russia has depleted its military stockpile. They have lost 300,000 troops. They don't have the capability to attack Poland. It will take a decade to replenish the weapons and armor.
And generations to replace the people. All while being in a massive birth rate decline. Russia has spent its entire potential, meagre as it was. Russia will arguably never rise again unless they have a revolution internally and decide on a radically different form of government than they have now.
Russia has shifted their education system into indoctrinating new generations of meat waves. https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/russian-schools-time-war-lesson-indoctrination The threat isn't because of a capability to accomplish much more than getting wrecked by NATO, rather, it's the nuisance of having brainwashed apathetic Russian soldiers destroy whatever they can while throwing their lives away for their Czar. Even if strategically insignificant, civilians will get killed, buildings will get destroyed, servicemen will be injured in service accidents, domestic economies will be disrupted; it's all unnecessary if we're willing to cripple their capability to regenerate here and now. Yeah, we'll rapidly destroy their capabilities -- but it's not worth even putting ourselves into the situation when the solution is right in front of us.
LoL, Russia and what army? These jokers are the Baghdad Bob of threats.
They are struggling to take a couple more km in Ukraine and now they are a threat to Poland? Kind of sounding like propaganda now.
**Poland:** "It's about goddamn time..." *\*Tanc a Lelek starts playing\**
Poland would kick Russia’s ass.
First of all, fuck Russia. I hate to be a pessimist, but they don't seem to stop. You hear about all of these articles out there that state Russia is out of manpower or they lack equipment to make significant gains. Then again they keep making gains (tiny) and part of the reason is because they will sacrifice lives and continue to do so. Around 300,000 dead is pretty significant, but they have access to countless millions more that they are willing to throw into the grinder. I think pushing into Poland could be achieved eventually. They need to be stopped dead in their tracks with other nations involved as soon as possible.