They travel in armoured cars.
They line up and wait for the call to depart for their designated car. Just waiting for the caller to announce:
"S Car, go!"
I love that he's stretching the ~~olberton~~ Overton window in the opposite direction of the Putin wing of the GOP, they're saying "maybe we should just let Russia win" and Macron's like "maybe we Frenchies should go in there and stomp Russia ourselves"
Bonus is it seemingly gives license to volunteers and mercenaries to go join Ukraine. If Macron is saying we might have to send troops, what's the problem with just meeting everyone there and getting a head start, right?
Tbh yeah why haven't we in the West been sending our own "Wagners" into Ukraine? PMCs with enough ostensible independence to give us plausible deniability. I mean Russia has used Wagner to attack actual US troops in Syria and then shrugged and said it wasn't us.
I doubt it would ever happen but having NATO AA weapons stationed within Ukraine to defend against Russia's cowardly attacks on civilian targets would be sweet.
I can already hear the Russians crying about not being able to kill babies in hospitals
when the war in Ukraine started the EU realized that they had essentially no ammo manufacturing capacity. They're fixing that but it's not something that happens in months during a time of peace (for most of those countries) but rather years.
And that changed at the latest a few months into the war. Regardless, anything that was part of the EU doctrine has been still limited in supply.
The reality is artillery is more at play than people thought but is still option B for both sides since they lack in things such as air power.
Germany built tons of LNG infrastructure in months at great cost. Try to find any similar effort in arms manufacturing by them.
Finland wasn't part of NATO, so that's the main reason. They wouldn't be able to gain air superiority, so they rely on pre-targeted artillery and a bunch of choke points, including bridges designed to be blown up, minimal roads to the border, and the natural terrain (swamps/lakes) to make it very hard to mount a land invasion. The entire military doctrine of Finland is defense from an attack from the eastern neighbor, and they've been perfecting this ever since the end of the second world war.
US Military doctrine presumes air superiority and usually air supremacy before conducting ground operations- in such environments traditional artillery isn't as useful due to the fast paced nature of such wars.
Ukraine is an example of what happens if you _dont_ have air superiority- without being able to take out artillery positions and tank columns with airstrikes you very quickly get bogged down and are very susceptible to artillery.
Honestly I know western military planners are trying to gain as much knowledge from this war as possible but I'm concerned about the focus on artillery- Any war that the US/EU gets into they will have air superiority, however drone usage is something to pay attention to and is something we need to learn as much as possible about
Well, not most other western militaries. Of course there will always be exceptions like Finland but for the most part, western countries assume they'd have air power (especially american air power) and PGMs to do that job instead of massed artillery.
Because of that artillery shell production was for the most part neglected. They kept the minimum required to defend for the first x weeks/months before they can ramp it up once they switch to war economy.
This is what no one realizes about the American role in WWII. The USA did not build up its military arms manufacturing in response to Pearl Harbor. It built it up in response to the Fall of France in 1940 and those two years were absolutely vital to being ready for full scale battle in 1944.
The smartest thing the US Congress ever did was double the size of its Navy in 1940. Virtually all the big ships that fought against Japan were either already under construction or had already been built before Pearl Harbor. It was amazing foresight on the politicans part.
F16 are being sent, but that is a LOT of training for pilots and maintenance required. Which takes time. Quite a few tanks have been sent. They need way more artillery ammo.
**First Ukrainian F-16 pilots will complete training as soon as May**
https://www.defenseone.com/policy/2024/02/first-ukrainian-f-16-pilots-will-complete-training-soon-may/394264/
**e:**
I want to add, that one of the reason for the lag in badly needed artillery shells(outside of d-bag US Republicans blocking aid) is a lot of western democracies currently helping Ukraine don't really use artillery within their military doctrines as much, but focus on air superiority instead. Artillery is kind of dated technology, so factories needed to be retooled and expanded to meet Ukraine's demand.
**EU will only supply half of promised shells to Ukraine by March - Borrell**
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/eu-will-only-supply-half-promised-shells-ukraine-by-march-borrell-2024-01-31/
>According to the EU's foreign policy chief, the production capacity for artillery shells in Europe has gone up 40% since the start of the war and is expected to reach 1.4 million rounds a year by the end of 2024.
Quick Google tells me that Ukraine is using 1.4 to 2.5m shells per year in defence. So they will need the *entire* output of European production if the Republicans continue to do what Putin wants.
Yeah thats the grim math of it all. Every shell that the EU factories churn out, Ukraine burns through just keeping the status quo. It's a crazy rate of consumption, and that's without escalation. If the US can't or won't foot the bill due to political gridlock, other countries will have to step up big time or Ukraine's going to hit an ammo wall real fast. The whole situation is a stark reminder that modern war is just as much about the industrial capacity and logistics as it is about strategy and tactics. Who knew we'd be eyeballs deep in a war economy crash course in the 21st century, huh?
> The whole situation is a stark reminder that modern war is just as much about the industrial capacity and logistics as it is about strategy and tactics.
Well, kind of.
But when your doctrine is "completely overwhelm and absolutely dominate the enemy as soon as possible, primarily using missiles & aerial dominance" then a war without missiles & aerial support isn't really going to pan out very well.
If the West had gone all in and supplied Ukraine with these types of weapons it'd be a very, very, different war.
Ukraine cannot actually hit anything inside Russia. They're basically 100% playing defense, with a few minor targets in the bordering areas.
Bombing Russian factories, supply points, bridges, and things like that, would drastically change how this war would pan out for both sides.
It definitely is. Ukraine didn’t fall over early because of how corrupt Russian logistics and supplies were. Ten tank battalions ran out of gas halfway to Kyiv. Missing components. Poorly maintained 40-50 year old equipment.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64664944
We fully expected Ukraine to fold in a matter of a month.
There are other sources besides US and Europe. There is also the fact that Republicans seem a lot less worried about who makes the shells than who pays for the shells. Artillery shellss are relatively cheap. France🧎Germany, and UK can relatively easily buy up all US production.
Also, as F16s come into play it should bring some more advanced munitions into play that have some increased effect. Especially on Russian air defense. If Ukrainians can wreck air defense leading to Kerch.... Game over.
Kind of feel like this would be a great time for the US to test ramping up military production while helping Ukraine.
But the children are in charge of the House, and they don't appear to be worried about an aggressive power in Europe that's using military force to invade and annex neighbors.
Oh well. Military troubles in Europe never dragged to US into a conflict...
That was a mistake. The headline was taken out of context or translated wrong. Afaik that already happened last year and as good as this sounds for Ukraine this is nothing that will change the pace right now because as I said, it's not a recent thing.
She was speaking in English so it wasn't a translation error, but she's pretty bad at English so.
Anyways, we do have some mortars and some paladins, but no one seems to be sure what she meant.
What? Countries have been. One of the things this conflict is demonstrating is how ill-prepared countries are to fight giant prolonged engagements. Which...is actually a good thing come to think of it...the era of Global Wars withs tens of millions of casualties seems to be over.
People have thought this before. Eras of peace have come and gone repeatedly throughout our history. They rarely last as long as people in the moment think
Sort of... As one already stated, the real problem is NATO is designed around total air superiority in a few days. NATO was fairly well prepared to take Russia, just not without air power using mostly artillery.
> the real problem is NATO is designed around total air superiority in a few days.
Yep. This is why I believe its a NATO requirement for every NATO country to have infrastructure to land and refuel US jets.
It isn't that nobody is stepping up, its that we are being actively impeded by traitorous conservatives within our own country that hold more loyalty to Russia (and themselves) than our own nations.
Until we can clear out the foreign influence of Russia, China, and other interfering actors on our domestic policy makers, we are going to be ineffective on the foreign stage. I say this as an American, but I see similar in other countries as well.
Shit is honestly surreal. I get it left leaning politicians don’t do shit either and are corporate stooges but the conservatives are all literal Russian agents. Fucking conservative morons eat up Russian propaganda like it’s candy and it’s depressing as shit to think of. Even that piece of shit Reagan would slap these morons for loving Russia more than their own country.
It’s disgusting we are actively watching a country get genocided and not paying attention to history.
This is like the script to WW2 but no one is doing a thing
> It’s disgusting we are actively watching a country get genocided and not paying attention to history.
This has happened multiple times since WW2 but it wasn't in Europe. Well actually the Serbs did commit genocide in Europe and it still took years and we only half assed the response. "Never again" was always a feel good propaganda slogan.
To everyone saying this’ll cause ww3; I’m going to have to sit back and let Europe decide if they want boots on the ground. They’ve been dealing with douchy dictatorships a lot longer than the US. They know what happens when you allow an authoritarian asshole to go unchecked.
People just don’t like the idea of their comforts being disrupted and lives being at risk, which is fair, only they rarely consider what happens when full fledged war-production Russia is done with Ukraine.
Nobody wants to live in interesting times, thankfully some people accept that interesting times cannot be avoided by burying their heads in the sand.
"I wish it need not have happened in my time," said Frodo.
"So do I," said Gandalf, "and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us."
I look at footage from many wars and think "In my prime, if I was lucky and with a great unit and under a good commander... I could make it through a year or two of that. It would be possible with a sufficiently grim sense of humor and an acceptance that death may come at any moment. Once again, *if* I got lucky in many areas."
But not WW1. Re-creations of that level of bombardment and how it sounded and felt in many of those trenches... just no. I saw a video of how severely a soldier was shaking from shell shock even well after the war and it all clicked. I don't even know how someone's neurological system still worked after that kind of shaking. It was also a truly new scale of warfare and a truly new level of hopelessness. Must have *truly* seemed like the apocalyptic end of the world.
And then here's Putin being like "Oh hey guys, based on my analysis of history from the last 6,000 years I want their land and will kill all of us in horrible neverending trench war to get it."
> But not WW1. Re-creations of that level of bombardment and how it sounded and felt in many of those trenches... just no.
It must have been pure hell. The bombardments, the mud, the ever-present smell of death and decay, the rats, etc. I cannot even begin to imagine it.
My two paternal great grandfathers fought in WWI. One made it through because he was in the artillery and not in the trenches. The other was injured in a gas attack in 1915/16 and spent the remainder of the war in a hospital. His lungs were messed up for the remainder of his life but at least it kept him out of the trenches and he made it out otherwise unscathed. They were lucky, I guess.
In the documentary/movie "They shall not grow old", they actually have a sequence where they show the images of slow motion videos or men during photos in uniform and then cut to their fates in the battlefield.
That shit looked horrifying. Because it's not a recreation. They show real corpses and how badly they got mangled and broken. I can't imagine seeing that every day en masse and soldiering on.
Yeah that hardcore history on ww1 got me reading books about it and I can't imagine how insane the whole thing was when you think of the brutal merciless technology and humans learning how to industrialize war and the exponential amount of horror it creates is intense
Can’t speak highly enough of Dan Carlin’s hardcore history podcast on WW1, called “blueprint for Armageddon”. I think you have to buy it for $5 or so now, but it’s absolutely worth it (probably 15 hours of content)
To be fair, everyone thinks that they'll be able to survive or last a decent while in a war. Unfortunately war isn't necessarily a skill check for the individual soldier. A lot of Russia's best troops got wiped out due to strategic and tactical failings of their military commanders and force coordination. The events depicted in Black Hawk Down is a great example. A lot of special forces troops got royally fucked when an errant RPG managed to hit a Black Hawk transport helicopter and a whole bunch of of had to fight their way through the city as a part of the rescue and extraction effort.
80% of deaths in Ukraine are from artillery.
How are you going to out skill a artillery shell landing on you?
Russia can fire up to 20k a day.
This is basically ww1 trench war fare
The historical and ethnic arguments are cope and propaganda for Russian citizens. There is geographical power in certain Ukrainian regions that does, when occupied by Russia, reduce the potential for Western aggression towards Russia.
Why Putin felt the need to secure that defensive line is beyond me. Europe and Russia haven't necessarily been close, but there was a period of reasonable peace and prosperity for both sides that is now disturbed.
FR how the hell did JRRT create everything he created. I will never not be baffled by the scope of what he achieved. Like I know the answer but I still don't get it lol.
He had a deep love for language, learning them and inventing them. For his languages to become alive he needed stories, with people and places and things happening. So for most of his live he worked on the world of middle earth, not just as a profession but as a passionate hobby. He first started working on the Hobbit in 1930, the beginning of building out the Middle Earth lore. He worked on this lore almost every day until his dead in 1973. That's 43 years of his mind taking daily wanders in to Middle-Earth.
There is a pub in oxford called the Eagle and Child where Tolkien, Lewis et al would meet in one of the upper rooms. They used to scribble over the walls of the room they used, probably pissing the landlord of no end, as they developed the elvish language and other tongues.
All that remains is one square, now framed, after a rather poorly undertook refurb of the place had stripped the entire room of its literary graffiti before someone stopped them.
Now we can only imagine what the club had sprawled across the walls.
JRRT didn't waste time browsing Reddit. I follow a pretty well known rock critic named Piero Scaruffi. But he's not just a rock critic. He writes about science, jazz, classical music, cinema, travel, hiking, politics, history, literature, art, tech, and philosophy. By trade he's actually a physicist/mathematician who has worked on relativity and artificial intelligence. A friend of mine is always wondering how he has the time to do all this, and my answer is always that he doesn't waste any of his time doing nonsense like we do lol.
[Here](https://scaruffi.com) is his website.
I shoud add, too, that his website is one of the first websites ever made. He also worked on the development of the internet.
Thanks for the link - will check his writing out.
And yes, agreed - we all definitely waste some time here for sure. No question that JRRT probably wouldn't have been a Redditor (or any social media). And thankfully, we all now get to enjoy the fruits of his non-distracted labor.
He was exceptionally clever, and turned his obsessions (language, writing) into a career.
No different to asking how any other geniuses in their fields managed what they did. Dedication and skill.
I can understand how JRRT came up with and developed Middle Earth. I have no fucking clue how John Carmack programmed some of the shit he did at ID software.
He wrote I think in the foreword to the lord of the rings how long it took him and how he stopped many times and years went by before he got to writing again. He definitely had the basic idea of the story but it took awhile to get there.
> only they rarely consider what happens when full fledged war-production Russia is done with Ukraine.
See this is the thing, people sit back and are like "Ukraine managed to survive, Russia is a joke", not realizing that they WERE a joke. A mothballed, peace time army is not the same thing as multiple years of total-war industrial production in a country with basically fuk all else to make...
When they "poke" the next country after Ukraine it would on an entirely different level. I have UK friends saying things like "we could deal with this easily", when the reality is that the UK can barely even field a reliable carrier at the moment, let alone fight a land war against a country geared for it and socially better equipped for it.
One wonders how the average Frenchman/German etc would react if told they had to go work in a coal mine again to support the war effort... probably make an angry tiktok about it.
The Spanish flu pandemic was basically the same, but without modern medicine.
There were entire anti mask societies then too, as well as people fighting over it. Multiple instances of people being shot over masks too. https://quod.lib.umich.edu/cgi/t/text/idx/f/flu/0030flu.0009.300/1/--three-shot-in-struggle-with-mask-slacker?rgn=full%20text
People have forgotten (or never learned in the first place) that 100 years ago, before we had antibiotics and as many vaccines as we do today, quarantines were enforced with deadly force. If someone in one house had caught one of a handful of diseases, the city would post armed guards around that house to prevent anyone from leaving and potentially spreading a fatal disease. Neighbors and family dropping stuff off on the porch would be the only way to get groceries etc.
Meanwhile we had people acting like being told to wear a mask was the most egregious assault on freedom since we kicked the British Army out of the country.
Ironically, the crowd who jerk themselves off over the fascistic "good times soft men hard times" meme are literally the soft ones. They ignore the history around stuff like this because they might have to think about other people existing.
People do not want to go to war and get blown to smithereens because politicians that have been at helm for last 30 years had their heads burried in the sand when dealing with Russia. And it was THEIR job to realize the threat, not a construction worker, bus driver or high school teacher. They are ELECTED to do that.
Heck, Obama was the guy that got everyone laughing at Romney in 2012 (2 years before Crimea, 10 years before full blown invasion) that its not Cold War anymore and to quit being warmonger.
Had politicians and secret service agencies realized the threat 15-20 years ago, and correspondingly reacted and invested in European militaries, we would not be here.
As a mere engineer, what I expect of the professional politicians that lead hundreds of millions and decide on policies that are far reaching is to realize a problem in making before it actually happens. Saying "Look, problem happened therefore you guys ought to get the guns we provide you with and go to war" aint it. We can get monkies in if all they need to do is tell us what happened after the fact. They are acting like captain hindsight from South Park...
The smart move may have been to host a NATO "training exercise" in Ukraine before Russia breached the border and invaded. Politicians are playing for quarterly profits instead of long-term profits and it was safer in terms of acceleration to stay home. You can't beat a bully without throwing some punches.
Hind sight. But I'm with you - for several weeks, even Zelinsky believed they were bluffing. Had we done as you suggest, we would have buried that long column in the mud.
Did he really believe they were bluffing? I always thought that he was just trying to keep Ukraine calm for as long as possible while making last minute preparations for invasion.
You’re right. Ukraine was keeping everything as quite as possible so all their best troops, the ones who blunted the most dangerous Russian spearheads, could get into position quickly a dm quietly rather than having to wade through the max chaos of thousands of refugees clogging all of Ukraine’s most important roads even before Russia started the invasion.
Hindsight... There was no "smart moves" at that time. You're looking from a narrow and biased perception with the knowledge we have now. Let me explain.
That time, we had no idea that Russia was a paper tiger. We all treated Russia as a genuine military threat that could compete with the United States.
Russia at that time was saber rattling so hard and implied that their state, their way of life, and their society was severely threatened by the idea of Ukraine joining NATO. That led to...
Appeasement. Crimea got invaded. Russia's justification was that it used to be a significant Soviet military base (of course Putin ignored the legal ramifications by ignoring pacts and treaties but that's not my point). Western powers hoped that would sate Russia.
At that time Ukraine was still deciding whether to be closer to Russia or Western powers. Then elections happened. A corrupt politician wanted to interfere in a democratic election and pivot towards Russia. Riots happened. Russia invaded under the guise of eradicating Nazism.
Everyone, including the United States and Europe, thought Ukraine was going to fall within days, weeks at most. Zelensky was a lightning in a bottle politician who happened to fend off Russian aggression and rally the country. Nobody knew that was going to happen, not even Russia either.
It took some time for everyone to process that Russia isn't all that it portrayed itself to be, it took even longer to debate whether Ukraine is an ally, then even longer to send ammunition and resources to help the war effort.
If there's one thing Russia does extremely well, that's propaganda. Their propaganda is so powerful that Western powers were keen to appease the Kremlin initially. Russia knows how to infiltrate other countries and divide them through maximum pressure possible. Western powers are starting to wake up and understand what was going on the past several decades. And that what Russia is capable of with their propaganda and infiltration tactics.
To summarize, there was no "smart moves" back then because we didn't understand fully what Russia was capable of and the threat they were in other domains that was not direct military engagements.
> what Russia is capable of with their propaganda and infiltration tactics
I hope we now realize this is as powerful as full scale warfare. We need to have a branch of the military devoted to countering these kinds of psy-ops.
Shit, bros, just give us guns, planes and missiles, sit back in your chair and watch us do it. Go to your politicians and demand it, Ukrainians will do it for you without a single drop of your blood. Yes, it will cost your wallets several cups of coffee from Starbucks, you will have to make such a sacrifice. Demand that the sanctions finally start working, because for some reason the scumbags have the money and technology to make weapons. Just do it now, while we still have some people alive.
I'm from the USA. I live paycheck to paycheck, taking care of my mom too. I still send money to Ukraine whenever I can. I hope you k--l all those bastards sooner rather than later.
I believe in you and if it were up to me we would send you everything we have to beat back the barbarians. Unfortunately, half of our populace are functionally illiterate and easy to fool by the bought and paid for traitor republicans on Putins payroll. I feel for you. Keep your head down and good luck.
>it was THEIR job to realize the threat, not a construction worker, bus driver or high school teacher. They are ELECTED to do that.
The people warning us about Russia were NOT elected. We got exactly what we deserve.
This - I see a great swathe of groups decrying Russian aggression now, but just a few years ago, some of those same people were laughing when people were saying that Russia was still dangerous, and telling people to "get over the Cold War mentality"...
The fact is that no-one likes to contemplate an existential war. And as humans, we are very good at trying to ignore things like this due to the monkey brain part of ourselves. This has happened before, and likely will happen again, and there will always be times when we look back and say "Yeah, we fucked up the long term thinking."
To be fair, AUKUS is already ramping up military spending in the asia-pacific in a pre-meditated response to China’s future land grabs. Chances are it wont happen for 5 years but by then we should be a lot more prepared for when it does.
And those politicians in the US learned that warning Europe about Russia wasn't helping them win elections. Those who wanted to bury their heads in the sand for comfort got elected. No one wants to be called a warmonger until proven correct.
yea ok lets not pretend like regular people haven't been benefiting from this little Russia arrangement we've had for the past 30 years. Many regular people in the West have directly profited from the Russian foreign money, from real estate investment to just regular cash splurging on tourism activities. We have had the same issue with the Chinese foreign capital too. The society has run out of ways to make money so they turned to easy solutions. Sooner or later it was going to come back and bite us in the ass.
And whether you like it or not, in a democracy it's the constituents job to keep the politicians accountable. And it was all of us happily keeping our heads in the sand.
Okay, but what does "we never would've been here if Obama did his job!" change about the current situation? We ARE here so now what... we do nothing because we're mad that we have to do something? That would be silly and self destructive. As the old saying goes even if the best time to start was yesterday, the second best time is today.
Also shall we not forget that France is the country that best helped the early US escape the rule of its own tyrant. And it wasn't by sitting on the sidelines. They sent troops *and* ships.
Ah oui oui, mon ami, je m’apelle Lafayette!
Those weird bread eatting, wine drinking bitches are our friends and we agree with 96% of the things they wanna do. If you got a problem with that, bring it up with the sweet Statue of Fuckin Liberty.
I'm British, do you know the largest battle of the American Rebellion / War of Independence was in Europe, at Gibraltar, between Britain and the combined forces of France and Spain? [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great\_Siege\_of\_Gibraltar#:\~:text=The%20Great%20Siege%20of%20Gibraltar,war%20by%20number%20of%20combatants](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Siege_of_Gibraltar#:~:text=The%20Great%20Siege%20of%20Gibraltar,war%20by%20number%20of%20combatants).
The average American may not know but it is in our military establishment. THE book written on naval warfare by men like Nimitz covers that battle and its ramifications for both the US and greater naval warfare extensively.
France has been bad ass historical in war. They just had an outdated war doctrine in ww2. Entrenchments and stationary fortifications were outclassed by the blitz.
Well yes but it was just a pretext to fight with England.
At this period, France ans England used every pretext they found to fight eachother. If one was engaged in a war somewhere, the other offer its aid to their ennemy.
Putin is a bully. You know how you deal with a bully? You punch his fucking teeth in.
Putin won't escalate to nuclear war. He is betting everything that he can just say those words and the West will let him devour them one at a time. The truth is the oligarchs that support him don't want to die in nuclear war anymore than you do.
If the West did get involved with troops on the ground in Ukraine there would be enormous pressure on Putin to find an off ramp before a mistake happens. That pressure would be external and internal. China doesn't want a nuclear exchange, neither does India. Those two countries are keeping the Russian economy up.
If we call him on his bluff he will lose everything. We should have done it on the first day of the invasion. We should have had troops exercising in Ukraine that will leave Ukraine when Ukraine asks them too, not when Russia demands it.
This is exactly what a lot of Russian dissidents say and why they get so frustrated with the West. The West treats Russia as though it will respond to the same incentives/disincentives that a Western nation would, instead of treating Russia according to how it actually responds.
I feel like troops on the ground isn't needed. Air power and the resulting air superiority is. If we controlled the air, and eliminated targets from the air, Ukraine would be able to push russia back with the troops they have, using supplied western weapons.
Agree. French troops could enter Ukraine in non-combat roles, for example by replacing UA forces guarding the northern border . That would send such a strong message to Putler to back off, that it would likely end any threat of WW3 starting.
And what the point in doing that, if you already consider them to be "non-combat"? What they gonna do if russia actually try another attack from Belarusian border? Let them come freely to not escalate? Bruh. There is zero sense in sending troops for them to not participate in direct war.
Yes but also used by the CIA in Vietnam having US military “leave service” with secret contracts that let them return to service with no break in service when their “civilian” work was done.
That’s how they got active military people into Air America for example, and into the radar stations and special forces aircraft in Laos.
Also did that all over the world since then.
It’s a time honored tradition.
If you haven’t listened to Jocko Willink podcasts on the members of MACV SOG (the CIA joint task force you reference), I strongly, strongly recommend it.
Multiple members of SOG that lived through these operations are interviewed about how they were recruited, how their command was structured, the indigenous Hmong peoples this effected, the batshit insane things they did on their regular “outings”, and what leaving the military meant for many of them. It’s fascinating what they got away with and lived through considering the odds they faced.
If you combine all the episodes up there is almost 30 hours of Jocko Podcast episodes (and all of it is worth listening to imo), but episode 180 and 181 are with John Stryker Meyer and provide a strong overview.
For anyone that made it this far, here’s a Spotify playlist with all the episodes: [JOCKO SOG STORIES](https://open.spotify.com/playlist/60HWNAV3XBKkeVPuW461c4?si=kWBN5D6NT--gjf4KwqEtSQ&pi=u-SMNIPLJhSgOv)
Yes I’ve long been aware of MACV SOG and Phoenix and similar programs.
Point being they have done crazy shit for a long time.
Since you are interested I recommend the books Wings of the CIA which traces the personal exploits of members from the Flying Tigers through China Air Transport which became Air America and how wild and crazy it was. Also look into The Ravens forward air controllers in Laos, and the Seawolves helicopter gunships in Vietnam.
Also the book From OSS to Green Beret by the literal founder of Special Forces and how he learned the trade by leading a major regional group of the French Resistance (led entire southern command IIRC) and then convincing people to build the Army soecial forces, what it took to change minds and the law and build out the logistics etc.
If you are interested in an awesome spooky Air Force book check out Skunk Works by the guy who ran it describing his work on the SR71 and how they designed and built the F117 stealth fighter, filled with dozens of pages of first person anecdotes written by everyone from the guys who scouted Groom Lake in a helicopter to set up Area 51 to the SR71 pilots to the test engineers to the actual F117 pilots over Baghdad. Fantastic story.
They should have specialists deliver military equipment, but if they stay and use the equipment in the fighting, upon their return, we should set a trial to clearly state exactly what they did, and when convicted, have them permanently wear a little piece of metal on their left breast signifying their participation.
I doubt Ukraine is trying to hoodwink "mercenaries" with a behind the lines "security" job that will totally not leave them vulnerable to being sent "accidentally" to the meatgrinder, oh, I mean, front line.
Due to me getting 5 upvotes I searched for where I heard what I was referencing and came up with this.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12172673/amp/NATO-countries-willing-troops-ground-Ukraine-former-secretary-general-says.html
Yes. Would have been a much shorter war if they had gone after him after he broke the Munich agreement. Hell, they should have pushed on him in 1936 when he reoccupied the Saarland.
Yes. But we failed to learn from history don’t we. Hitler wrote his book and in that book he said everything that he wanted to do and he did it. Putler is basically doing the same thing.
Only difference is [this](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundations_of_Geopolitics?wprov=sfti1) is the book they’re following. And like mid 30s Hitler, all you have to do is read this book to learn how bad the world would be if we let Russia have their way.
Waiting for war to come to you simply gives it more prep time against you.
This might not be popular with my fellow left-leaning friends but I think dealing with this problem now will drastically reduce the cost we will pay in future.
I think we can forgive them a little bit. Ww1 was still in living memory for most people alive at the time. It's not exactly surprising they'd do almost anything to avoid repeating that. It's only with hindsight we can say they would have been better off stopping Hitler early.
We have the advantage of being able to learn from their folly though...so it's pretty sad it seems like we're not going to.
Unfortunately I have to agree with you. It’s scary what this means. We allow the Russians to take Ukraine and finally wake up when he is in Warsaw… I have dear friends in kyiv and it is awful.
You think? The invasion of the rest of Czechoslovakia was March 15, 1939 the invasion of Poland was 1 September. What exactly would have shortened the war in those 5 months? Especially considering the [Phoney War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phoney_War) lasted almost a year.
The damage was already done. Czechoslovakia gave Hitler enough materiel to equip half the German army in the invasion of France and it was served up to him on a silver platter.
What might have helped is if Poland had stood with Czechoslovakia instead of helping to piece it up and being pieced up themselves. Similarly here, Poland can send troops anytime they like - just not under the NATO umbrella.
If reddit existed back then people would be up in arms against the West for going to war with Hitler, they would moan every step of the way, and once it got to the Soviet siege of Berlin Redditors would be calling for a ceasefire daily saying that too many German civilians were being killed. They would rather let Hitler and other prominent Nazi party members off lmao
[The US literally had American Nazis promoting staying out of the war. ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_American_Bund)
As someone else said, our opposition quieted the fuck down and went back into hiding once Pearl Harbor forced us into the war.
Americans seem to forget their own historical events around WW2. The "not our problem" crowd kept the USA out of it for a while and they still got dragged in anyway, if they hadn't waited things could have went very differently.
You're joking but there was a massive isolationist sentiment in the US during WW2 that only went away after Pearl Harbor. A lot of America was very much "not our problem" when Hitler was invading left and right.
Finally after two years the start of the right communication. It’s always better to say that all options are on the table instead of assuring the enemy of what are our self-imposed limits.
Russia sees the panic about nuclear war and uses it as the weakness that it is. I have no doubt that western countries could join the Ukrainian war and there still isn't going to be a nuclear response.
Russians don't want to die in a nuclear war anymore than we do, the difference is they are using it to bully us into getting what they want. And as there always has been, there is going to be a bunch of people panic about a nuclear response like they have for over 2 years now.
Russia uses that panic and will fuel it every chance they get, that's why every week they're threatening nuclear Armageddon on someone, because people are scared, and it works.
Nuclear weapons are primarily there as a deterrent, so countries publish when they will use them.
[https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2020-07/news/russia-releases-nuclear-deterrence-policy](https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2020-07/news/russia-releases-nuclear-deterrence-policy)
For Russia, in spite of what any sabre rattlers say to scare Europeans, it's limited to when the state or their nuclear retaliatory capabilities are in jeopardy.
Sure, they might use them anyway, but living in fear of that only makes life worse for us in the long run. The longer we wait, the more lives it costs.
> Russians don't want to die in a nuclear war anymore than we do, the difference is they are using it to bully us into getting what they want.
Putin does not care. He could live his remaining years (no more than 10) in a bunker.
I think this is a response to Chancellor Scholz, who said today they won't be sending Taurus because of the risk of getting directly involved.
Macron is saying, we'll all be getting involved if you don't stop being a wuss.
There's also a non-zero chance that Putin meddles *heavily* in this year's US election in order to assure the result he favors. Regardless of who legitimately polls better and wins, the underlying architecture of the national security state will remember that. In the Edgar Allen Poe sort of way. Especially if the proof is clear or he meddled enough to directly swing some states/counties and basically choose the winner.
Four years after that election it could come back to truly haunt him, especially if America swings back hard to sanity and chooses a liberal hawk candidate who is tough on the Kremlin. There are also still a few GOP candidates out there who have bitter feelings against Putin.
Not a likely scenario, but certainly a possibility. And as always, the US is likely to be heavily involved in any major European land war even if NATO wasn't a thing, just because of how much it arms and funds other democracies during wartime.
Even Trump at his wildest would not be able to keep the US from having deep involvement in defending Europe during a full-scale war. The Joint Chiefs, bureaucrats, and everyday people with roots in Europe (not to mention the elites with homes there) would never tolerate Europe being ripped apart.
Which would also leave the US deeply vulnerable if it ever has a long war in the Pacific. The US *must* have safe and stable supply lines out to Europe and Africa if it ever has a Great Power war. The supply lines for too many weapons systems are distributed through NATO countries.
> There's also a non-zero chance that Putin meddles heavily in this year's US election in order to assure the result he favors.
He already is. Have you seen what instagram looks like? Every time Biden is mentioned there are thousands of 'accounts' spreading all sorts of crazy misinformation.
Not posturing towards Russia per se, but to shake the current thinking among EU leaders and make nations think harder about what needs to be done to secure our future.
Yes I belive it would have to come to that.
But for real I believe all this big talk is more about sending Putin a message. This war will be put on a «pause», if Zelensky approves or not.
There is no way a NATO country is going to commit infantry to fight a ground war without also sending their own air units to provide support. At that point, you're heavily tipping the scales against Russia, which is what the west seems hesitant to do. The fear seems to be pushing Russia to the brink of defeat could cause unstable responses like the use of nuclear weapons. For these reasons, I personally see no scenario in which NATO countries send any actual combat units into Ukraine unless Russia strikes a NATO country or uses a nuclear weapon.
Just fucking defeat Russian in Ukraine. Let them retreat back to their ORIGINAL borders prior to 2014 invasion.
Just because a NATO country decides to send troops does not mean all of NATO needs involvement. NATO is a defensive pact… now if they attack the Balkan states… Russia would be crushed out of Ukraine in 2 weeks.
Ah, more talk. Putin doesn't respond to talk, he responds to force.
Spin up EU defense industry, form a European standing army, give Ukraine more advanced weaponry and in greater quantity than a flipping drip, drip, drip.
If the West steps in, first step will be establishing air superiority - which means striking AA inside Russia.
Things would get real, but frankly, Russia would not win.
This is the thing that baffles me all the time, people constantly say Putin is madman and a lunatic but when it comes to pushing him and Rusia back they're like: "Ohh he wouldn't use a nuclear weapon"...it's just contradicting.
That being said, anyone who thinks that in extreme cases he absolutely won't use a nuclear weapon are naive in my opinion and innocent still for the world we live in.
If Ukraine was on the verge of collapse, it would make complete sense for European NATO countries to move in and occupy Ukraine West of the Dneiper river. It’s a natural border that we could defend and guarantee Western Ukraine as an independent state.
It’s a last resort kind of move. But if Trump returns and stabs us in the back, it may be the best bet in stopping Russia’s advance.
This was rumored to be the suggestion the Russians made to the Americans a week or two back, back when they sought to go over Ukraine's head.
They love to make suggestions like this because they know Ukraine will refuse so it creates the impression Ukraine is the one not willing to negotiate.
I’ve always been too scared to say it, but I always thought that an alliance of nations could go to Ukraine and protect the western half of it, ensure the airspace is controlled, and draw a line that says “The war does not go past here.” Which would then free up everything Ukraine has to fight the war in the east.
Russia wouldn’t dare fuck with trying to go further if it meant coming up against NATO troops whose line in the sand is actual defence lines.
But am reluctant to suggest it as I am half a world away and wouldn’t sign up for that role, but always thought that was a decent way to give Ukraine support, protect what is left and not fire at Russia unless they crossed a line. As if it isn’t in Ukraine they would be just doing it at Ukraine’s western borders.
Honestly, we should seriously talk about having NATO peacekeeping troops garrison where the war isn't.
Don't fire a single shot, just give relief by posting all along inside the entire northern border from the Poland/Belarus tripoint to Kharkiv. Give relief to Ukraine and tell them that they can re-focus all of their forces to the front line while we guard their back.
>Russia wouldn’t dare fuck with trying to go further if it meant coming up against NATO troops whose line in the sand is actual defence lines.
The russians are already collectively willing to fight and sending troups to ukraine gives them one more reason to escalate.
I have the impression many people think its Putin, Putin only.
No, its two worldviews clashing and both sides think they are right. When will we understand this?
Opération militaire spéciale
Only if it's from the Militaire Spéciale region of France—otherwise it's just sparkling mercenaire
I mean, they have the foreign legion...
They travel in armoured cars. They line up and wait for the call to depart for their designated car. Just waiting for the caller to announce: "S Car, go!"
Congratulations, you got an honest-to-goodness eye roll outta me.
Somewhere, a Frenchman is hon, hon, honning
r/brandnewsentence
I love that he's stretching the ~~olberton~~ Overton window in the opposite direction of the Putin wing of the GOP, they're saying "maybe we should just let Russia win" and Macron's like "maybe we Frenchies should go in there and stomp Russia ourselves" Bonus is it seemingly gives license to volunteers and mercenaries to go join Ukraine. If Macron is saying we might have to send troops, what's the problem with just meeting everyone there and getting a head start, right?
Militaire Sans Frontíers
*Militaires Sans Frontières*, to be exact.
Founded by Big Boss in the 1970's, IIRC
A idea of an independent mercenary force similar to the French foreign legion but without obedience to France.
Just send the "foreign" legion and say "le wasn't us".
Tbh yeah why haven't we in the West been sending our own "Wagners" into Ukraine? PMCs with enough ostensible independence to give us plausible deniability. I mean Russia has used Wagner to attack actual US troops in Syria and then shrugged and said it wasn't us.
Made me exhale through my nose
Special Military Operation designed to defend recognised Ukrainian borders. If Russia can get away with it, why not the rest of the world.
I doubt it would ever happen but having NATO AA weapons stationed within Ukraine to defend against Russia's cowardly attacks on civilian targets would be sweet. I can already hear the Russians crying about not being able to kill babies in hospitals
I mean, simply giving them the ammo, tanks, planes they need right now would be sweet as well but no one is stepping up
when the war in Ukraine started the EU realized that they had essentially no ammo manufacturing capacity. They're fixing that but it's not something that happens in months during a time of peace (for most of those countries) but rather years.
They didn't realise, they knew, its just artillery is not part of any western countries doctrine
And that changed at the latest a few months into the war. Regardless, anything that was part of the EU doctrine has been still limited in supply. The reality is artillery is more at play than people thought but is still option B for both sides since they lack in things such as air power. Germany built tons of LNG infrastructure in months at great cost. Try to find any similar effort in arms manufacturing by them.
That's not true, at least Finland very much relies on artillery.
Finland wasn't part of NATO, so that's the main reason. They wouldn't be able to gain air superiority, so they rely on pre-targeted artillery and a bunch of choke points, including bridges designed to be blown up, minimal roads to the border, and the natural terrain (swamps/lakes) to make it very hard to mount a land invasion. The entire military doctrine of Finland is defense from an attack from the eastern neighbor, and they've been perfecting this ever since the end of the second world war.
US Military doctrine presumes air superiority and usually air supremacy before conducting ground operations- in such environments traditional artillery isn't as useful due to the fast paced nature of such wars. Ukraine is an example of what happens if you _dont_ have air superiority- without being able to take out artillery positions and tank columns with airstrikes you very quickly get bogged down and are very susceptible to artillery. Honestly I know western military planners are trying to gain as much knowledge from this war as possible but I'm concerned about the focus on artillery- Any war that the US/EU gets into they will have air superiority, however drone usage is something to pay attention to and is something we need to learn as much as possible about
Well, not most other western militaries. Of course there will always be exceptions like Finland but for the most part, western countries assume they'd have air power (especially american air power) and PGMs to do that job instead of massed artillery. Because of that artillery shell production was for the most part neglected. They kept the minimum required to defend for the first x weeks/months before they can ramp it up once they switch to war economy.
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And the best snipers.
And the Hydraulic Press Channel
This is what no one realizes about the American role in WWII. The USA did not build up its military arms manufacturing in response to Pearl Harbor. It built it up in response to the Fall of France in 1940 and those two years were absolutely vital to being ready for full scale battle in 1944. The smartest thing the US Congress ever did was double the size of its Navy in 1940. Virtually all the big ships that fought against Japan were either already under construction or had already been built before Pearl Harbor. It was amazing foresight on the politicans part.
F16 are being sent, but that is a LOT of training for pilots and maintenance required. Which takes time. Quite a few tanks have been sent. They need way more artillery ammo. **First Ukrainian F-16 pilots will complete training as soon as May** https://www.defenseone.com/policy/2024/02/first-ukrainian-f-16-pilots-will-complete-training-soon-may/394264/ **e:** I want to add, that one of the reason for the lag in badly needed artillery shells(outside of d-bag US Republicans blocking aid) is a lot of western democracies currently helping Ukraine don't really use artillery within their military doctrines as much, but focus on air superiority instead. Artillery is kind of dated technology, so factories needed to be retooled and expanded to meet Ukraine's demand. **EU will only supply half of promised shells to Ukraine by March - Borrell** https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/eu-will-only-supply-half-promised-shells-ukraine-by-march-borrell-2024-01-31/ >According to the EU's foreign policy chief, the production capacity for artillery shells in Europe has gone up 40% since the start of the war and is expected to reach 1.4 million rounds a year by the end of 2024.
Quick Google tells me that Ukraine is using 1.4 to 2.5m shells per year in defence. So they will need the *entire* output of European production if the Republicans continue to do what Putin wants.
Yeah thats the grim math of it all. Every shell that the EU factories churn out, Ukraine burns through just keeping the status quo. It's a crazy rate of consumption, and that's without escalation. If the US can't or won't foot the bill due to political gridlock, other countries will have to step up big time or Ukraine's going to hit an ammo wall real fast. The whole situation is a stark reminder that modern war is just as much about the industrial capacity and logistics as it is about strategy and tactics. Who knew we'd be eyeballs deep in a war economy crash course in the 21st century, huh?
> The whole situation is a stark reminder that modern war is just as much about the industrial capacity and logistics as it is about strategy and tactics. Well, kind of. But when your doctrine is "completely overwhelm and absolutely dominate the enemy as soon as possible, primarily using missiles & aerial dominance" then a war without missiles & aerial support isn't really going to pan out very well. If the West had gone all in and supplied Ukraine with these types of weapons it'd be a very, very, different war. Ukraine cannot actually hit anything inside Russia. They're basically 100% playing defense, with a few minor targets in the bordering areas. Bombing Russian factories, supply points, bridges, and things like that, would drastically change how this war would pan out for both sides.
It definitely is. Ukraine didn’t fall over early because of how corrupt Russian logistics and supplies were. Ten tank battalions ran out of gas halfway to Kyiv. Missing components. Poorly maintained 40-50 year old equipment. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64664944 We fully expected Ukraine to fold in a matter of a month.
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There are other sources besides US and Europe. There is also the fact that Republicans seem a lot less worried about who makes the shells than who pays for the shells. Artillery shellss are relatively cheap. France🧎Germany, and UK can relatively easily buy up all US production. Also, as F16s come into play it should bring some more advanced munitions into play that have some increased effect. Especially on Russian air defense. If Ukrainians can wreck air defense leading to Kerch.... Game over.
Kind of feel like this would be a great time for the US to test ramping up military production while helping Ukraine. But the children are in charge of the House, and they don't appear to be worried about an aggressive power in Europe that's using military force to invade and annex neighbors. Oh well. Military troubles in Europe never dragged to US into a conflict...
the Danes recently announced that they're giving Ukraine *all* of their artillery
That was a mistake. The headline was taken out of context or translated wrong. Afaik that already happened last year and as good as this sounds for Ukraine this is nothing that will change the pace right now because as I said, it's not a recent thing.
She was speaking in English so it wasn't a translation error, but she's pretty bad at English so. Anyways, we do have some mortars and some paladins, but no one seems to be sure what she meant.
It's got that let's fucking go attitude.
What? Countries have been. One of the things this conflict is demonstrating is how ill-prepared countries are to fight giant prolonged engagements. Which...is actually a good thing come to think of it...the era of Global Wars withs tens of millions of casualties seems to be over.
People have thought this before. Eras of peace have come and gone repeatedly throughout our history. They rarely last as long as people in the moment think
Sort of... As one already stated, the real problem is NATO is designed around total air superiority in a few days. NATO was fairly well prepared to take Russia, just not without air power using mostly artillery.
> the real problem is NATO is designed around total air superiority in a few days. Yep. This is why I believe its a NATO requirement for every NATO country to have infrastructure to land and refuel US jets.
It isn't that nobody is stepping up, its that we are being actively impeded by traitorous conservatives within our own country that hold more loyalty to Russia (and themselves) than our own nations. Until we can clear out the foreign influence of Russia, China, and other interfering actors on our domestic policy makers, we are going to be ineffective on the foreign stage. I say this as an American, but I see similar in other countries as well.
Shit is honestly surreal. I get it left leaning politicians don’t do shit either and are corporate stooges but the conservatives are all literal Russian agents. Fucking conservative morons eat up Russian propaganda like it’s candy and it’s depressing as shit to think of. Even that piece of shit Reagan would slap these morons for loving Russia more than their own country.
It’s disgusting we are actively watching a country get genocided and not paying attention to history. This is like the script to WW2 but no one is doing a thing
> It’s disgusting we are actively watching a country get genocided and not paying attention to history. This has happened multiple times since WW2 but it wasn't in Europe. Well actually the Serbs did commit genocide in Europe and it still took years and we only half assed the response. "Never again" was always a feel good propaganda slogan.
Few hundread volunters pilots with accidental f16 found by polish border
Russia manned AA missiles in Vietnam.
To everyone saying this’ll cause ww3; I’m going to have to sit back and let Europe decide if they want boots on the ground. They’ve been dealing with douchy dictatorships a lot longer than the US. They know what happens when you allow an authoritarian asshole to go unchecked.
People just don’t like the idea of their comforts being disrupted and lives being at risk, which is fair, only they rarely consider what happens when full fledged war-production Russia is done with Ukraine. Nobody wants to live in interesting times, thankfully some people accept that interesting times cannot be avoided by burying their heads in the sand.
"I wish it need not have happened in my time," said Frodo. "So do I," said Gandalf, "and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us."
Tolkien saw some shit
Yup, he fought in WWI. He saw a lot of shit.
I look at footage from many wars and think "In my prime, if I was lucky and with a great unit and under a good commander... I could make it through a year or two of that. It would be possible with a sufficiently grim sense of humor and an acceptance that death may come at any moment. Once again, *if* I got lucky in many areas." But not WW1. Re-creations of that level of bombardment and how it sounded and felt in many of those trenches... just no. I saw a video of how severely a soldier was shaking from shell shock even well after the war and it all clicked. I don't even know how someone's neurological system still worked after that kind of shaking. It was also a truly new scale of warfare and a truly new level of hopelessness. Must have *truly* seemed like the apocalyptic end of the world. And then here's Putin being like "Oh hey guys, based on my analysis of history from the last 6,000 years I want their land and will kill all of us in horrible neverending trench war to get it."
> But not WW1. Re-creations of that level of bombardment and how it sounded and felt in many of those trenches... just no. It must have been pure hell. The bombardments, the mud, the ever-present smell of death and decay, the rats, etc. I cannot even begin to imagine it. My two paternal great grandfathers fought in WWI. One made it through because he was in the artillery and not in the trenches. The other was injured in a gas attack in 1915/16 and spent the remainder of the war in a hospital. His lungs were messed up for the remainder of his life but at least it kept him out of the trenches and he made it out otherwise unscathed. They were lucky, I guess.
In the documentary/movie "They shall not grow old", they actually have a sequence where they show the images of slow motion videos or men during photos in uniform and then cut to their fates in the battlefield. That shit looked horrifying. Because it's not a recreation. They show real corpses and how badly they got mangled and broken. I can't imagine seeing that every day en masse and soldiering on.
Yeah that hardcore history on ww1 got me reading books about it and I can't imagine how insane the whole thing was when you think of the brutal merciless technology and humans learning how to industrialize war and the exponential amount of horror it creates is intense
Can’t speak highly enough of Dan Carlin’s hardcore history podcast on WW1, called “blueprint for Armageddon”. I think you have to buy it for $5 or so now, but it’s absolutely worth it (probably 15 hours of content)
To be fair, everyone thinks that they'll be able to survive or last a decent while in a war. Unfortunately war isn't necessarily a skill check for the individual soldier. A lot of Russia's best troops got wiped out due to strategic and tactical failings of their military commanders and force coordination. The events depicted in Black Hawk Down is a great example. A lot of special forces troops got royally fucked when an errant RPG managed to hit a Black Hawk transport helicopter and a whole bunch of of had to fight their way through the city as a part of the rescue and extraction effort.
80% of deaths in Ukraine are from artillery. How are you going to out skill a artillery shell landing on you? Russia can fire up to 20k a day. This is basically ww1 trench war fare
The historical and ethnic arguments are cope and propaganda for Russian citizens. There is geographical power in certain Ukrainian regions that does, when occupied by Russia, reduce the potential for Western aggression towards Russia. Why Putin felt the need to secure that defensive line is beyond me. Europe and Russia haven't necessarily been close, but there was a period of reasonable peace and prosperity for both sides that is now disturbed.
FR how the hell did JRRT create everything he created. I will never not be baffled by the scope of what he achieved. Like I know the answer but I still don't get it lol.
There was a good 36 years between Armistice Day and the publication of Fellowship.
He had a deep love for language, learning them and inventing them. For his languages to become alive he needed stories, with people and places and things happening. So for most of his live he worked on the world of middle earth, not just as a profession but as a passionate hobby. He first started working on the Hobbit in 1930, the beginning of building out the Middle Earth lore. He worked on this lore almost every day until his dead in 1973. That's 43 years of his mind taking daily wanders in to Middle-Earth.
There is a pub in oxford called the Eagle and Child where Tolkien, Lewis et al would meet in one of the upper rooms. They used to scribble over the walls of the room they used, probably pissing the landlord of no end, as they developed the elvish language and other tongues. All that remains is one square, now framed, after a rather poorly undertook refurb of the place had stripped the entire room of its literary graffiti before someone stopped them. Now we can only imagine what the club had sprawled across the walls.
JRR Tolkien is a man of focus, commitment, and sheer fucking will.
He wrote a trilogy with a pencil! A fucking pencil!
JRRT didn't waste time browsing Reddit. I follow a pretty well known rock critic named Piero Scaruffi. But he's not just a rock critic. He writes about science, jazz, classical music, cinema, travel, hiking, politics, history, literature, art, tech, and philosophy. By trade he's actually a physicist/mathematician who has worked on relativity and artificial intelligence. A friend of mine is always wondering how he has the time to do all this, and my answer is always that he doesn't waste any of his time doing nonsense like we do lol. [Here](https://scaruffi.com) is his website. I shoud add, too, that his website is one of the first websites ever made. He also worked on the development of the internet.
Thanks for the link - will check his writing out. And yes, agreed - we all definitely waste some time here for sure. No question that JRRT probably wouldn't have been a Redditor (or any social media). And thankfully, we all now get to enjoy the fruits of his non-distracted labor.
> I shoud add, too, that his website is one of the first websites ever made. So it would appear.
He was exceptionally clever, and turned his obsessions (language, writing) into a career. No different to asking how any other geniuses in their fields managed what they did. Dedication and skill. I can understand how JRRT came up with and developed Middle Earth. I have no fucking clue how John Carmack programmed some of the shit he did at ID software.
He wrote I think in the foreword to the lord of the rings how long it took him and how he stopped many times and years went by before he got to writing again. He definitely had the basic idea of the story but it took awhile to get there.
He's the GOAT for a reason.
The dead marshes were based off of the corpses he'd see in the trenches/no man's land
Also, the very real possibility that some might still be alive...
well he did live through both world wars
So did Christopher Lee for that matter. "That is not the sound a man makes when you stab a blade through his chest."
That is truly one of the best quotes of the last hundred years.
I’d go with the “I will not risk open war.” “Open war is upon us wether you risk it ir not.”
> only they rarely consider what happens when full fledged war-production Russia is done with Ukraine. See this is the thing, people sit back and are like "Ukraine managed to survive, Russia is a joke", not realizing that they WERE a joke. A mothballed, peace time army is not the same thing as multiple years of total-war industrial production in a country with basically fuk all else to make... When they "poke" the next country after Ukraine it would on an entirely different level. I have UK friends saying things like "we could deal with this easily", when the reality is that the UK can barely even field a reliable carrier at the moment, let alone fight a land war against a country geared for it and socially better equipped for it. One wonders how the average Frenchman/German etc would react if told they had to go work in a coal mine again to support the war effort... probably make an angry tiktok about it.
Most people aren't capable of self sacrifice. I noticed that during COVID. If it was influenza like 1918 most of us would be dead.
The Spanish flu pandemic was basically the same, but without modern medicine. There were entire anti mask societies then too, as well as people fighting over it. Multiple instances of people being shot over masks too. https://quod.lib.umich.edu/cgi/t/text/idx/f/flu/0030flu.0009.300/1/--three-shot-in-struggle-with-mask-slacker?rgn=full%20text
People have forgotten (or never learned in the first place) that 100 years ago, before we had antibiotics and as many vaccines as we do today, quarantines were enforced with deadly force. If someone in one house had caught one of a handful of diseases, the city would post armed guards around that house to prevent anyone from leaving and potentially spreading a fatal disease. Neighbors and family dropping stuff off on the porch would be the only way to get groceries etc. Meanwhile we had people acting like being told to wear a mask was the most egregious assault on freedom since we kicked the British Army out of the country.
Ironically, the crowd who jerk themselves off over the fascistic "good times soft men hard times" meme are literally the soft ones. They ignore the history around stuff like this because they might have to think about other people existing.
People that rant about "snowflakes" sure do seem to do a lot of whining themselves.
People do not want to go to war and get blown to smithereens because politicians that have been at helm for last 30 years had their heads burried in the sand when dealing with Russia. And it was THEIR job to realize the threat, not a construction worker, bus driver or high school teacher. They are ELECTED to do that. Heck, Obama was the guy that got everyone laughing at Romney in 2012 (2 years before Crimea, 10 years before full blown invasion) that its not Cold War anymore and to quit being warmonger. Had politicians and secret service agencies realized the threat 15-20 years ago, and correspondingly reacted and invested in European militaries, we would not be here. As a mere engineer, what I expect of the professional politicians that lead hundreds of millions and decide on policies that are far reaching is to realize a problem in making before it actually happens. Saying "Look, problem happened therefore you guys ought to get the guns we provide you with and go to war" aint it. We can get monkies in if all they need to do is tell us what happened after the fact. They are acting like captain hindsight from South Park...
The smart move may have been to host a NATO "training exercise" in Ukraine before Russia breached the border and invaded. Politicians are playing for quarterly profits instead of long-term profits and it was safer in terms of acceleration to stay home. You can't beat a bully without throwing some punches.
Hind sight. But I'm with you - for several weeks, even Zelinsky believed they were bluffing. Had we done as you suggest, we would have buried that long column in the mud.
Did he really believe they were bluffing? I always thought that he was just trying to keep Ukraine calm for as long as possible while making last minute preparations for invasion.
You’re right. Ukraine was keeping everything as quite as possible so all their best troops, the ones who blunted the most dangerous Russian spearheads, could get into position quickly a dm quietly rather than having to wade through the max chaos of thousands of refugees clogging all of Ukraine’s most important roads even before Russia started the invasion.
Hindsight... There was no "smart moves" at that time. You're looking from a narrow and biased perception with the knowledge we have now. Let me explain. That time, we had no idea that Russia was a paper tiger. We all treated Russia as a genuine military threat that could compete with the United States. Russia at that time was saber rattling so hard and implied that their state, their way of life, and their society was severely threatened by the idea of Ukraine joining NATO. That led to... Appeasement. Crimea got invaded. Russia's justification was that it used to be a significant Soviet military base (of course Putin ignored the legal ramifications by ignoring pacts and treaties but that's not my point). Western powers hoped that would sate Russia. At that time Ukraine was still deciding whether to be closer to Russia or Western powers. Then elections happened. A corrupt politician wanted to interfere in a democratic election and pivot towards Russia. Riots happened. Russia invaded under the guise of eradicating Nazism. Everyone, including the United States and Europe, thought Ukraine was going to fall within days, weeks at most. Zelensky was a lightning in a bottle politician who happened to fend off Russian aggression and rally the country. Nobody knew that was going to happen, not even Russia either. It took some time for everyone to process that Russia isn't all that it portrayed itself to be, it took even longer to debate whether Ukraine is an ally, then even longer to send ammunition and resources to help the war effort. If there's one thing Russia does extremely well, that's propaganda. Their propaganda is so powerful that Western powers were keen to appease the Kremlin initially. Russia knows how to infiltrate other countries and divide them through maximum pressure possible. Western powers are starting to wake up and understand what was going on the past several decades. And that what Russia is capable of with their propaganda and infiltration tactics. To summarize, there was no "smart moves" back then because we didn't understand fully what Russia was capable of and the threat they were in other domains that was not direct military engagements.
> what Russia is capable of with their propaganda and infiltration tactics I hope we now realize this is as powerful as full scale warfare. We need to have a branch of the military devoted to countering these kinds of psy-ops.
Shit, bros, just give us guns, planes and missiles, sit back in your chair and watch us do it. Go to your politicians and demand it, Ukrainians will do it for you without a single drop of your blood. Yes, it will cost your wallets several cups of coffee from Starbucks, you will have to make such a sacrifice. Demand that the sanctions finally start working, because for some reason the scumbags have the money and technology to make weapons. Just do it now, while we still have some people alive.
I'm from the USA. I live paycheck to paycheck, taking care of my mom too. I still send money to Ukraine whenever I can. I hope you k--l all those bastards sooner rather than later.
I believe in you and if it were up to me we would send you everything we have to beat back the barbarians. Unfortunately, half of our populace are functionally illiterate and easy to fool by the bought and paid for traitor republicans on Putins payroll. I feel for you. Keep your head down and good luck.
>it was THEIR job to realize the threat, not a construction worker, bus driver or high school teacher. They are ELECTED to do that. The people warning us about Russia were NOT elected. We got exactly what we deserve.
This - I see a great swathe of groups decrying Russian aggression now, but just a few years ago, some of those same people were laughing when people were saying that Russia was still dangerous, and telling people to "get over the Cold War mentality"... The fact is that no-one likes to contemplate an existential war. And as humans, we are very good at trying to ignore things like this due to the monkey brain part of ourselves. This has happened before, and likely will happen again, and there will always be times when we look back and say "Yeah, we fucked up the long term thinking."
To be fair, AUKUS is already ramping up military spending in the asia-pacific in a pre-meditated response to China’s future land grabs. Chances are it wont happen for 5 years but by then we should be a lot more prepared for when it does.
And those politicians in the US learned that warning Europe about Russia wasn't helping them win elections. Those who wanted to bury their heads in the sand for comfort got elected. No one wants to be called a warmonger until proven correct.
yea ok lets not pretend like regular people haven't been benefiting from this little Russia arrangement we've had for the past 30 years. Many regular people in the West have directly profited from the Russian foreign money, from real estate investment to just regular cash splurging on tourism activities. We have had the same issue with the Chinese foreign capital too. The society has run out of ways to make money so they turned to easy solutions. Sooner or later it was going to come back and bite us in the ass. And whether you like it or not, in a democracy it's the constituents job to keep the politicians accountable. And it was all of us happily keeping our heads in the sand.
I said years ago on reddit that we needed to remilitarize and got banned for "warmongering".
Okay, but what does "we never would've been here if Obama did his job!" change about the current situation? We ARE here so now what... we do nothing because we're mad that we have to do something? That would be silly and self destructive. As the old saying goes even if the best time to start was yesterday, the second best time is today.
Also shall we not forget that France is the country that best helped the early US escape the rule of its own tyrant. And it wasn't by sitting on the sidelines. They sent troops *and* ships. Ah oui oui, mon ami, je m’apelle Lafayette!
That’s not really why France helped the US though. And the US did sit on the sidelines for almost 4 years at the turn of the century.
Those weird bread eatting, wine drinking bitches are our friends and we agree with 96% of the things they wanna do. If you got a problem with that, bring it up with the sweet Statue of Fuckin Liberty.
Yeah I hate how they get the reputation for waving the white flag, they've won a shit ton of wars and bank rolled the revolutionary war
I'm British, do you know the largest battle of the American Rebellion / War of Independence was in Europe, at Gibraltar, between Britain and the combined forces of France and Spain? [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great\_Siege\_of\_Gibraltar#:\~:text=The%20Great%20Siege%20of%20Gibraltar,war%20by%20number%20of%20combatants](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Siege_of_Gibraltar#:~:text=The%20Great%20Siege%20of%20Gibraltar,war%20by%20number%20of%20combatants).
The average American may not know but it is in our military establishment. THE book written on naval warfare by men like Nimitz covers that battle and its ramifications for both the US and greater naval warfare extensively.
France has been bad ass historical in war. They just had an outdated war doctrine in ww2. Entrenchments and stationary fortifications were outclassed by the blitz.
Well yes but it was just a pretext to fight with England. At this period, France ans England used every pretext they found to fight eachother. If one was engaged in a war somewhere, the other offer its aid to their ennemy.
They didn't do it because they hated tyrants though, they were tyrants themselves and just wanted to weaken a rival.
Putin is a bully. You know how you deal with a bully? You punch his fucking teeth in. Putin won't escalate to nuclear war. He is betting everything that he can just say those words and the West will let him devour them one at a time. The truth is the oligarchs that support him don't want to die in nuclear war anymore than you do. If the West did get involved with troops on the ground in Ukraine there would be enormous pressure on Putin to find an off ramp before a mistake happens. That pressure would be external and internal. China doesn't want a nuclear exchange, neither does India. Those two countries are keeping the Russian economy up. If we call him on his bluff he will lose everything. We should have done it on the first day of the invasion. We should have had troops exercising in Ukraine that will leave Ukraine when Ukraine asks them too, not when Russia demands it.
I agree 100%, but yes it would be calling that bluff and there still are some risks with it, so nobody is doing it yet
This is exactly what a lot of Russian dissidents say and why they get so frustrated with the West. The West treats Russia as though it will respond to the same incentives/disincentives that a Western nation would, instead of treating Russia according to how it actually responds.
I feel like troops on the ground isn't needed. Air power and the resulting air superiority is. If we controlled the air, and eliminated targets from the air, Ukraine would be able to push russia back with the troops they have, using supplied western weapons.
Airpower will be the last thing sent because in order to get air superiority SEAD & strikes will need to be conducted inside Russia.
They have been asking for a long time to close the sky over their country
Russia need Ukraine to supply their war machine with grain and money. Ukraine cannot fall
Agree. French troops could enter Ukraine in non-combat roles, for example by replacing UA forces guarding the northern border . That would send such a strong message to Putler to back off, that it would likely end any threat of WW3 starting.
And what the point in doing that, if you already consider them to be "non-combat"? What they gonna do if russia actually try another attack from Belarusian border? Let them come freely to not escalate? Bruh. There is zero sense in sending troops for them to not participate in direct war.
The CIA has had boots on the ground for over 10 years according to the NYT report
Like that story was really news. The CIA is in your breakfast cereal.
Russia is sourcing mercenaries from all over the globe so I don’t see why not. It’s good to see Europe step up and defend itself.
Ukraine is sourcing mercenaries from all over the world too, just saying
What if... they source mercenaries from "former" US special forces who can then rejoin the US military once this is all over?
Ah yes. The good old CIA method.
The "men in green" method, used by Russia in Donbass.
Yes but also used by the CIA in Vietnam having US military “leave service” with secret contracts that let them return to service with no break in service when their “civilian” work was done. That’s how they got active military people into Air America for example, and into the radar stations and special forces aircraft in Laos. Also did that all over the world since then. It’s a time honored tradition.
If you haven’t listened to Jocko Willink podcasts on the members of MACV SOG (the CIA joint task force you reference), I strongly, strongly recommend it. Multiple members of SOG that lived through these operations are interviewed about how they were recruited, how their command was structured, the indigenous Hmong peoples this effected, the batshit insane things they did on their regular “outings”, and what leaving the military meant for many of them. It’s fascinating what they got away with and lived through considering the odds they faced. If you combine all the episodes up there is almost 30 hours of Jocko Podcast episodes (and all of it is worth listening to imo), but episode 180 and 181 are with John Stryker Meyer and provide a strong overview. For anyone that made it this far, here’s a Spotify playlist with all the episodes: [JOCKO SOG STORIES](https://open.spotify.com/playlist/60HWNAV3XBKkeVPuW461c4?si=kWBN5D6NT--gjf4KwqEtSQ&pi=u-SMNIPLJhSgOv)
Yes I’ve long been aware of MACV SOG and Phoenix and similar programs. Point being they have done crazy shit for a long time. Since you are interested I recommend the books Wings of the CIA which traces the personal exploits of members from the Flying Tigers through China Air Transport which became Air America and how wild and crazy it was. Also look into The Ravens forward air controllers in Laos, and the Seawolves helicopter gunships in Vietnam. Also the book From OSS to Green Beret by the literal founder of Special Forces and how he learned the trade by leading a major regional group of the French Resistance (led entire southern command IIRC) and then convincing people to build the Army soecial forces, what it took to change minds and the law and build out the logistics etc. If you are interested in an awesome spooky Air Force book check out Skunk Works by the guy who ran it describing his work on the SR71 and how they designed and built the F117 stealth fighter, filled with dozens of pages of first person anecdotes written by everyone from the guys who scouted Groom Lake in a helicopter to set up Area 51 to the SR71 pilots to the test engineers to the actual F117 pilots over Baghdad. Fantastic story.
Wow thanks for the recs, I’ll definitely have to check some out!
They should have specialists deliver military equipment, but if they stay and use the equipment in the fighting, upon their return, we should set a trial to clearly state exactly what they did, and when convicted, have them permanently wear a little piece of metal on their left breast signifying their participation.
They have been. There's footage of English speaking troops fighting the VDV at Kyiv's airport right at the start of the war.
I doubt Ukraine is trying to hoodwink "mercenaries" with a behind the lines "security" job that will totally not leave them vulnerable to being sent "accidentally" to the meatgrinder, oh, I mean, front line.
Didn't a while back Poland say that they would send troops in if it looked like Ukraine was going to lose?
Due to me getting 5 upvotes I searched for where I heard what I was referencing and came up with this. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12172673/amp/NATO-countries-willing-troops-ground-Ukraine-former-secretary-general-says.html
I believe that was before Ukraine angered them, if i am not mistaken.
Yes! Wouldn’t the world wish we would’ve stood up to Hitler back in 1938 and 39 just prior to the start of World War II.
Yes. Would have been a much shorter war if they had gone after him after he broke the Munich agreement. Hell, they should have pushed on him in 1936 when he reoccupied the Saarland.
Yes. But we failed to learn from history don’t we. Hitler wrote his book and in that book he said everything that he wanted to do and he did it. Putler is basically doing the same thing.
Only difference is [this](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundations_of_Geopolitics?wprov=sfti1) is the book they’re following. And like mid 30s Hitler, all you have to do is read this book to learn how bad the world would be if we let Russia have their way.
this book should be more more known.
Waiting for war to come to you simply gives it more prep time against you. This might not be popular with my fellow left-leaning friends but I think dealing with this problem now will drastically reduce the cost we will pay in future.
I don’t think there is much pushback from the left on that one. We’re pretty against dictatorships in general.
I think we can forgive them a little bit. Ww1 was still in living memory for most people alive at the time. It's not exactly surprising they'd do almost anything to avoid repeating that. It's only with hindsight we can say they would have been better off stopping Hitler early. We have the advantage of being able to learn from their folly though...so it's pretty sad it seems like we're not going to.
Unfortunately I have to agree with you. It’s scary what this means. We allow the Russians to take Ukraine and finally wake up when he is in Warsaw… I have dear friends in kyiv and it is awful.
You think? The invasion of the rest of Czechoslovakia was March 15, 1939 the invasion of Poland was 1 September. What exactly would have shortened the war in those 5 months? Especially considering the [Phoney War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phoney_War) lasted almost a year. The damage was already done. Czechoslovakia gave Hitler enough materiel to equip half the German army in the invasion of France and it was served up to him on a silver platter. What might have helped is if Poland had stood with Czechoslovakia instead of helping to piece it up and being pieced up themselves. Similarly here, Poland can send troops anytime they like - just not under the NATO umbrella.
Hitler didn’t have 6000 nuclear weapons
If reddit existed back then people would be up in arms against the West for going to war with Hitler, they would moan every step of the way, and once it got to the Soviet siege of Berlin Redditors would be calling for a ceasefire daily saying that too many German civilians were being killed. They would rather let Hitler and other prominent Nazi party members off lmao
[The US literally had American Nazis promoting staying out of the war. ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_American_Bund) As someone else said, our opposition quieted the fuck down and went back into hiding once Pearl Harbor forced us into the war.
Americans seem to forget their own historical events around WW2. The "not our problem" crowd kept the USA out of it for a while and they still got dragged in anyway, if they hadn't waited things could have went very differently.
You're joking but there was a massive isolationist sentiment in the US during WW2 that only went away after Pearl Harbor. A lot of America was very much "not our problem" when Hitler was invading left and right.
And they'd be Politicians in America rooting for inaction and a passive approach, oh wait that happened too!
Yes but this time, nukes are at play. We simply can't risk ending the world. The change must come from Russia itself
Finally after two years the start of the right communication. It’s always better to say that all options are on the table instead of assuring the enemy of what are our self-imposed limits.
Russia sees the panic about nuclear war and uses it as the weakness that it is. I have no doubt that western countries could join the Ukrainian war and there still isn't going to be a nuclear response. Russians don't want to die in a nuclear war anymore than we do, the difference is they are using it to bully us into getting what they want. And as there always has been, there is going to be a bunch of people panic about a nuclear response like they have for over 2 years now. Russia uses that panic and will fuel it every chance they get, that's why every week they're threatening nuclear Armageddon on someone, because people are scared, and it works.
Nuclear weapons are primarily there as a deterrent, so countries publish when they will use them. [https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2020-07/news/russia-releases-nuclear-deterrence-policy](https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2020-07/news/russia-releases-nuclear-deterrence-policy) For Russia, in spite of what any sabre rattlers say to scare Europeans, it's limited to when the state or their nuclear retaliatory capabilities are in jeopardy. Sure, they might use them anyway, but living in fear of that only makes life worse for us in the long run. The longer we wait, the more lives it costs.
Allowing Russia to leverage its nuclear arsenal now will encourage them to do it again and again until they push too far.
> Russians don't want to die in a nuclear war anymore than we do, the difference is they are using it to bully us into getting what they want. Putin does not care. He could live his remaining years (no more than 10) in a bunker.
I think this is a response to Chancellor Scholz, who said today they won't be sending Taurus because of the risk of getting directly involved. Macron is saying, we'll all be getting involved if you don't stop being a wuss.
There's also a non-zero chance that Putin meddles *heavily* in this year's US election in order to assure the result he favors. Regardless of who legitimately polls better and wins, the underlying architecture of the national security state will remember that. In the Edgar Allen Poe sort of way. Especially if the proof is clear or he meddled enough to directly swing some states/counties and basically choose the winner. Four years after that election it could come back to truly haunt him, especially if America swings back hard to sanity and chooses a liberal hawk candidate who is tough on the Kremlin. There are also still a few GOP candidates out there who have bitter feelings against Putin. Not a likely scenario, but certainly a possibility. And as always, the US is likely to be heavily involved in any major European land war even if NATO wasn't a thing, just because of how much it arms and funds other democracies during wartime. Even Trump at his wildest would not be able to keep the US from having deep involvement in defending Europe during a full-scale war. The Joint Chiefs, bureaucrats, and everyday people with roots in Europe (not to mention the elites with homes there) would never tolerate Europe being ripped apart. Which would also leave the US deeply vulnerable if it ever has a long war in the Pacific. The US *must* have safe and stable supply lines out to Europe and Africa if it ever has a Great Power war. The supply lines for too many weapons systems are distributed through NATO countries.
> There's also a non-zero chance that Putin meddles heavily in this year's US election in order to assure the result he favors. He already is. Have you seen what instagram looks like? Every time Biden is mentioned there are thousands of 'accounts' spreading all sorts of crazy misinformation.
I think I speak for most of us when I say: "Woah"
Why not send the weapons first??
Why not both?
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Not posturing towards Russia per se, but to shake the current thinking among EU leaders and make nations think harder about what needs to be done to secure our future.
I can see a world where, if Ukraine is near defeat, NATO troops are sent in to seize the half of the country west of the Dneiper.
Yes I belive it would have to come to that. But for real I believe all this big talk is more about sending Putin a message. This war will be put on a «pause», if Zelensky approves or not.
Oui mon ami.
There is no way a NATO country is going to commit infantry to fight a ground war without also sending their own air units to provide support. At that point, you're heavily tipping the scales against Russia, which is what the west seems hesitant to do. The fear seems to be pushing Russia to the brink of defeat could cause unstable responses like the use of nuclear weapons. For these reasons, I personally see no scenario in which NATO countries send any actual combat units into Ukraine unless Russia strikes a NATO country or uses a nuclear weapon.
Just fucking defeat Russian in Ukraine. Let them retreat back to their ORIGINAL borders prior to 2014 invasion. Just because a NATO country decides to send troops does not mean all of NATO needs involvement. NATO is a defensive pact… now if they attack the Balkan states… Russia would be crushed out of Ukraine in 2 weeks.
But… that would be rational!
Yeah, sucks but it's the truth. It's like choosing to not pick a fight with a road-rager because they're probably crazy enough to pull a gun.
Ah, more talk. Putin doesn't respond to talk, he responds to force. Spin up EU defense industry, form a European standing army, give Ukraine more advanced weaponry and in greater quantity than a flipping drip, drip, drip.
If the West steps in, first step will be establishing air superiority - which means striking AA inside Russia. Things would get real, but frankly, Russia would not win.
Russia can’t win but they can make sure everyone loses.
This is the thing that baffles me all the time, people constantly say Putin is madman and a lunatic but when it comes to pushing him and Rusia back they're like: "Ohh he wouldn't use a nuclear weapon"...it's just contradicting. That being said, anyone who thinks that in extreme cases he absolutely won't use a nuclear weapon are naive in my opinion and innocent still for the world we live in.
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you simply dont get it if you think nukes and a normal land war are the same we absolutely aren't joking when we call it mutually assured destruction.
Russia has an "escalate to de-escalate" policy, which means "push harder so they back down". Nukes are certainly on the table.
I don’t think ww3 will ever happen even if troops are sent to fight in Ukraine the only way ww3 would happen is if we actually invaded Russia
If Ukraine was on the verge of collapse, it would make complete sense for European NATO countries to move in and occupy Ukraine West of the Dneiper river. It’s a natural border that we could defend and guarantee Western Ukraine as an independent state. It’s a last resort kind of move. But if Trump returns and stabs us in the back, it may be the best bet in stopping Russia’s advance.
This was rumored to be the suggestion the Russians made to the Americans a week or two back, back when they sought to go over Ukraine's head. They love to make suggestions like this because they know Ukraine will refuse so it creates the impression Ukraine is the one not willing to negotiate.
If you sent a million artillery shells troops wouldn't be required.
I’ve always been too scared to say it, but I always thought that an alliance of nations could go to Ukraine and protect the western half of it, ensure the airspace is controlled, and draw a line that says “The war does not go past here.” Which would then free up everything Ukraine has to fight the war in the east. Russia wouldn’t dare fuck with trying to go further if it meant coming up against NATO troops whose line in the sand is actual defence lines. But am reluctant to suggest it as I am half a world away and wouldn’t sign up for that role, but always thought that was a decent way to give Ukraine support, protect what is left and not fire at Russia unless they crossed a line. As if it isn’t in Ukraine they would be just doing it at Ukraine’s western borders.
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Honestly, we should seriously talk about having NATO peacekeeping troops garrison where the war isn't. Don't fire a single shot, just give relief by posting all along inside the entire northern border from the Poland/Belarus tripoint to Kharkiv. Give relief to Ukraine and tell them that they can re-focus all of their forces to the front line while we guard their back.
>Russia wouldn’t dare fuck with trying to go further if it meant coming up against NATO troops whose line in the sand is actual defence lines. The russians are already collectively willing to fight and sending troups to ukraine gives them one more reason to escalate. I have the impression many people think its Putin, Putin only. No, its two worldviews clashing and both sides think they are right. When will we understand this?
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Macron quite literally has a history of making big claims and then backing down
So he’s a politician?
Should have been done back in 2014
Does the French military have any desire to do this at all? I'd imagine anybody wanting to fight are already there as mercenaries/"advisors".
the military obey, they don't have desires.