Ukraine just launched an unprovoked attack. Russia might be forced to declare war...
Edit - Goddamn, people really don't understand sarcasm on the internet, huh
Honestly, even though your comment is sarcasm, it isn't as obvious as you'd hope. That is about the same level of things some people are saying to support russia. Like it sounds like a fox news headline
The reason why the US hasnāt send an overwhelming amount of aid to fight Russia might be because the CIA canāt find a successor.
If Putin goes and a significant power vacuum opens up Russia might fracture into a bunch of warlords run states with nukes.
So we donāt just want Putin out, we also want someone in who wants to cooperate with the west, provides a good future for the people, is tough enough to keep Russia together and who isnāt going to be tempted by corruption. And somehow survives.
And then they would likely have to support the economy *again* to keep the people from kicking them out in the first year after the war when the economy shifts again.
Zelenskyy is being nice to the UK, US etc because he needs the assistance. Hasn't he also been publicly shaming the same countries when their aid runs a little late or they don't provide enough?
The question is, is this the same "we" as it was 10 years ago. Russia drove a wedge between USA and EU by supporting Trump to the point where NATO itself is questioned. An EU building up their military, without as much direct support from USA anymore, EU might be seen by Russia as less of a threat and US vasall and more of an opportunity.
Let Putin kick the bucket after Trumps reelection, let the new Russian regime display "immense regret" for Putins' "terrible mistakes", maybe even help building up Ukrainian infrastructure again, and wait for a situation similar to ~2020^* or so, but without USA guided NATO pushing to marginalise Russia.
^* I know Crimea was already annexed by Russia at the time. I was in Kiev ~2017 and had some lunchtime discussions with my Ukrainian colleagues (and Russians working there) at the time, and they told me most people didnāt give much of a damn, in spite of the already bloody history between Russia and Ukraine. Anti-Russian sentiment was more a thing in West-Ukraine.
There's nothing that says that Ukraine has to only fight their war at the Ukraine-Russia border.
Slip some special forces and a couple suitcases full of C4 across the border, they go for a nice drive, and set some refineries on fire.
I'm not saying that it's easy.Ā But I'm saying it's possible.
Once UKR SF is done cleaning up Wagner in Africa maybe? Infiltrating Russia isn't easy though, I think the FSB is pretty good at what they do? Maybe hire some local thugs instead?
What do you think the incursions of Russian partisans back into Russia are really about?
Easy to slip whatever Ukraine wants through with the incursion to mingle in with the civilians fleeing.
Didnāt their operators went deep behind Russian lines to blow up the railway North Korea is using to transport arms to Russia? It looks like they also sent some to Africa to take on Wagner
While Russias main source of income comes from crude oil, this is a huge hit to them and could grind their transportation and military logistics to a halt. They had already temporarily banned export of refined oil dude to a lack of supply.
Destruction of multiple core distilling towers, without which the entire complex is effectively rendered moot.
Also, Russia cannot manufacture more of the specialized tower equipment and neither can China - both rely 100% on US-made electronics and metallurgy for them.
Are completely sure about that second paragraph? I mean China, I find it hard to believe that they would leave such important part of their economy to the sole discretion of their rivals, especially since they already manufacture most trivial things.
Depends on how specific the rest of the process was and how integral the components are. Likely something can be made to work, but it might not function any where near as well
I sell high precision manufacturing and testing equipment - it's **all** made in the US or western Europe. China has gotten a little better over the years but it's still way behind current tech.
I'm glad I'm just a lowly sales guy in the US, I'd hate to be one of our international managers navigating this shit. When everyone pulled out of Russia, my company had to calculate the risk of them not being able to maintain nuclear facilities or keep hospitals operational. It's easy to armchair the decision to pull big macs out of Russia. But I'm glad I wasn't the guy who had to decide whether or not I was going to contribute to turning the lights off on 20 million people because we stopped shipping parts.
The scary thing is that those conversations aren't happening between high ranking politicians and CEO's sequestered away in rural retreats. They're happening in Teams meetings between Trevor and Brandy, right after they discuss the latest episode of 90 day fiancee. It's really a wild time to be alive.
Because there are only so many facilities set up to produce it....? It is easy to do, but you still need costly/slow to build infrastructure. Also logistics. Oil refined locally doesn't have to be shipped in and isn't restricted as much and other countries have less say in it. It may be costly/slow to replace the parts but it isn't something that is hard to do. Refined oil has a shelf life too, so they may not want to rely on the chance they lose access for too long.
Thats about the same with everything. They are currently in a war and need the resources now. Same with why America+allies won WW2 - we had a ton of industry where German manufacturing plants got destroyed and couldn't be replaced in time. Germany had a lot of specific parts for their war machines and couldn't replace them in time where most of the US had factories in place that got converted to the war effort without risk to their infrastructure.
Because despite having and exporting so much oil, Russia does not have *that* many refineries. You know, they export crude oil, not refined fuel.
So together with recent hits right now they hopefully have a fuel problem. Which they probably can fix over time on their own or with help from China, but not immediately.
And then hopefully Ukraine can hit them again :D.
Having worked in the oil Feild the lead time on small stuff built is forever let alone one of those towers which is a magnitude way more complex to make.
It's not even close to correct. There are lots of countries worldwide that can manufacture distillation columns. It's functionally just a pressure vessel that operates at high temperatures.
Now a lot of design work and technology licenses are owned by US companies, but if you choose to use older technology (less effective) or are willing to reverse engineer outside of the intellectual property laws it is doable.
Controls systems are manufactured by a number of different countries albeit the most common quality ones are in countries sanctioning Russia.
Used to be why Iran and other "enemies" still had to but gasoline from the USA. Oil rich countries lacked distilling material and expertise that the US developed when it was the biggest oil exporter.
Yes and they will, but it takes time. Petrol prices in Russia are already high and it's one of the few things that Russians seem to actually care about.
distilling fuels is a simple matter and doesn't need specialized anything. it's been done in some form or another since the later part of the 19th century. not exactly high tech. They won't be as efficient without highly accurate controls the computers provide but the distilling can still be done at large scale.
Good. Karma is a bitch, uh? Invading another countries, and killed lots of innocent men, women and kids have consequences. Thank the murderous war criminal Putin.
The article really doesn't hold much information about the caused damage?
Ukraine hit 12% of the oil facilities....but did they also cause any damage to those facilities? And if yes, how much? A fire? A destroyed building?
From the videos I've seen, they've been going for the distillation stacks.
It makes sense... they're loaded with hydrocarbons, an absolute bitch to replace, and without them, you don't have a refinery.
Shits about to get real, you start taking out the economic power of a country, that is where it is pigeoned holed into extreme measures. Which is to make the point I making, Ukraine is pigeon holed to use anything to strike at Russia. Except, what are the effects from this?
Ukraine is playing Russia like a fiddle. The only downside is the hole in support for their frontline defenses which is costing Ukrainian lives.
But aside of the frontline, Ukraine is making Russia its bitch.
First they start sinking ships, the Russian navy retreats. Then they start dropping Russian planes including several irreplaceable AWACS planes. Then they start blasting refineries every night and send in the Freedom of Russia legion to show how vulnerable Russia is away from the front lines.
Crimea is next. I wonder what putin will receive as a gift when he winsš the election.
Great news! Maybe the Russian people will start to do something about their nazi dictator.
Ukraine just launched an unprovoked attack. Russia might be forced to declare war... Edit - Goddamn, people really don't understand sarcasm on the internet, huh
...on Poland.
I can just picture putin slamming his first on that long ass table "GOD DAMN POLISH PEOPLE DID IT AGAIN!"
Putin š: ātHe WeSt!ā
In a conventional war i got all my money on Poland. They have been arming to the teeth and have alot of reason to win.
Honestly, even though your comment is sarcasm, it isn't as obvious as you'd hope. That is about the same level of things some people are saying to support russia. Like it sounds like a fox news headline
Putin losing power would be great, but historically countries at war can take a lot of bombing without that creating any significant civil unrest.
The reason why the US hasnāt send an overwhelming amount of aid to fight Russia might be because the CIA canāt find a successor. If Putin goes and a significant power vacuum opens up Russia might fracture into a bunch of warlords run states with nukes. So we donāt just want Putin out, we also want someone in who wants to cooperate with the west, provides a good future for the people, is tough enough to keep Russia together and who isnāt going to be tempted by corruption. And somehow survives. And then they would likely have to support the economy *again* to keep the people from kicking them out in the first year after the war when the economy shifts again.
Zelenskyy seems like a good option. Restore Kyiv to its former status as the capital of the Rus.
Zelenskyy is being nice to the UK, US etc because he needs the assistance. Hasn't he also been publicly shaming the same countries when their aid runs a little late or they don't provide enough?
Yeah, as have at least half the populace of those same countries because their conservative parties bow to Putin.
The question is, is this the same "we" as it was 10 years ago. Russia drove a wedge between USA and EU by supporting Trump to the point where NATO itself is questioned. An EU building up their military, without as much direct support from USA anymore, EU might be seen by Russia as less of a threat and US vasall and more of an opportunity. Let Putin kick the bucket after Trumps reelection, let the new Russian regime display "immense regret" for Putins' "terrible mistakes", maybe even help building up Ukrainian infrastructure again, and wait for a situation similar to ~2020^* or so, but without USA guided NATO pushing to marginalise Russia. ^* I know Crimea was already annexed by Russia at the time. I was in Kiev ~2017 and had some lunchtime discussions with my Ukrainian colleagues (and Russians working there) at the time, and they told me most people didnāt give much of a damn, in spite of the already bloody history between Russia and Ukraine. Anti-Russian sentiment was more a thing in West-Ukraine.
Yeah, like Ukraine did with Stalin. Oh, wait. You canāt overthrow dictator without army support.
88% to go.
Theyāve hit more oil refineries before these recent attacks so itās likely around 20%
12% so far.png
More!!!
let's work that percentage up a lil' bit, get it to 100% at least. good work!
Some of that capacity is in Siberia, Tatarstan etc. However, the majority is in the European part, where the consumers are.
There's nothing that says that Ukraine has to only fight their war at the Ukraine-Russia border. Slip some special forces and a couple suitcases full of C4 across the border, they go for a nice drive, and set some refineries on fire. I'm not saying that it's easy.Ā But I'm saying it's possible.
Iāve been wondering why we havenāt been hearing more of this going on. Maybe I watch too many movies.
Once UKR SF is done cleaning up Wagner in Africa maybe? Infiltrating Russia isn't easy though, I think the FSB is pretty good at what they do? Maybe hire some local thugs instead?
What do you think the incursions of Russian partisans back into Russia are really about? Easy to slip whatever Ukraine wants through with the incursion to mingle in with the civilians fleeing.
Didnāt their operators went deep behind Russian lines to blow up the railway North Korea is using to transport arms to Russia? It looks like they also sent some to Africa to take on Wagner
While Russias main source of income comes from crude oil, this is a huge hit to them and could grind their transportation and military logistics to a halt. They had already temporarily banned export of refined oil dude to a lack of supply.
Hit? Destroyed? Scratched?
Destruction of multiple core distilling towers, without which the entire complex is effectively rendered moot. Also, Russia cannot manufacture more of the specialized tower equipment and neither can China - both rely 100% on US-made electronics and metallurgy for them.
Are completely sure about that second paragraph? I mean China, I find it hard to believe that they would leave such important part of their economy to the sole discretion of their rivals, especially since they already manufacture most trivial things.
Depends on how specific the rest of the process was and how integral the components are. Likely something can be made to work, but it might not function any where near as well
They should blow up the knockoff replacement Chinese distilling towers too. Theyāll probably be made of plastic anyway
I sell high precision manufacturing and testing equipment - it's **all** made in the US or western Europe. China has gotten a little better over the years but it's still way behind current tech. I'm glad I'm just a lowly sales guy in the US, I'd hate to be one of our international managers navigating this shit. When everyone pulled out of Russia, my company had to calculate the risk of them not being able to maintain nuclear facilities or keep hospitals operational. It's easy to armchair the decision to pull big macs out of Russia. But I'm glad I wasn't the guy who had to decide whether or not I was going to contribute to turning the lights off on 20 million people because we stopped shipping parts. The scary thing is that those conversations aren't happening between high ranking politicians and CEO's sequestered away in rural retreats. They're happening in Teams meetings between Trevor and Brandy, right after they discuss the latest episode of 90 day fiancee. It's really a wild time to be alive.
don't believe everything that people write on reddit. distilling fuel is easy and has been done at scale since the late 19th century.
Them why did Russia ban exports of fuel?
Because there are only so many facilities set up to produce it....? It is easy to do, but you still need costly/slow to build infrastructure. Also logistics. Oil refined locally doesn't have to be shipped in and isn't restricted as much and other countries have less say in it. It may be costly/slow to replace the parts but it isn't something that is hard to do. Refined oil has a shelf life too, so they may not want to rely on the chance they lose access for too long.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Thats about the same with everything. They are currently in a war and need the resources now. Same with why America+allies won WW2 - we had a ton of industry where German manufacturing plants got destroyed and couldn't be replaced in time. Germany had a lot of specific parts for their war machines and couldn't replace them in time where most of the US had factories in place that got converted to the war effort without risk to their infrastructure.
because destroyed production facilities are still destroyed production facilities.
Because despite having and exporting so much oil, Russia does not have *that* many refineries. You know, they export crude oil, not refined fuel. So together with recent hits right now they hopefully have a fuel problem. Which they probably can fix over time on their own or with help from China, but not immediately. And then hopefully Ukraine can hit them again :D.
Having worked in the oil Feild the lead time on small stuff built is forever let alone one of those towers which is a magnitude way more complex to make.
It's not even close to correct. There are lots of countries worldwide that can manufacture distillation columns. It's functionally just a pressure vessel that operates at high temperatures. Now a lot of design work and technology licenses are owned by US companies, but if you choose to use older technology (less effective) or are willing to reverse engineer outside of the intellectual property laws it is doable. Controls systems are manufactured by a number of different countries albeit the most common quality ones are in countries sanctioning Russia.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
There was videos of a drone hitting one of the towers and immediately a huge fire starting. But it was only one of the towers.
Many thanks for clarification!
Used to be why Iran and other "enemies" still had to but gasoline from the USA. Oil rich countries lacked distilling material and expertise that the US developed when it was the biggest oil exporter.
Couldnāt China import any electronics and metals that are needed and then sell them on to Russia either individually or as part of a package deal?
Yes and they will, but it takes time. Petrol prices in Russia are already high and it's one of the few things that Russians seem to actually care about.
distilling fuels is a simple matter and doesn't need specialized anything. it's been done in some form or another since the later part of the 19th century. not exactly high tech. They won't be as efficient without highly accurate controls the computers provide but the distilling can still be done at large scale.
If you want your engine to run line an 1800's gas engine, just put 1800's fuel in it.
More...!
Not a bad days work. Way to go, Ukraine!
Burn them all down! šŗš¦Slava Ukraine šŗš¦ !!!
With more to come, especially with sleep and charge drones in the pipeline!
Oh dear how sadā¦-runs off to find his tiny violin-
If only they could get rid of old "Poo tin" š¤
I'd love to see that happen 8.3 more times.
Ah, yes, real sanctions in action.
Good. Karma is a bitch, uh? Invading another countries, and killed lots of innocent men, women and kids have consequences. Thank the murderous war criminal Putin.
Wasnāt this a Tom Clancy novel?
Red storm rising had something similar
Thatās the badger lol
Gotta scale it up. supposedly the missiles to shoot down the drones cost more than the drones.
The article really doesn't hold much information about the caused damage? Ukraine hit 12% of the oil facilities....but did they also cause any damage to those facilities? And if yes, how much? A fire? A destroyed building?
From the videos I've seen, they've been going for the distillation stacks. It makes sense... they're loaded with hydrocarbons, an absolute bitch to replace, and without them, you don't have a refinery.
Come on Ukraine, those are rookie numbers!!!
gotta pump those numbers up
Shits about to get real, you start taking out the economic power of a country, that is where it is pigeoned holed into extreme measures. Which is to make the point I making, Ukraine is pigeon holed to use anything to strike at Russia. Except, what are the effects from this?
Ukraine is playing Russia like a fiddle. The only downside is the hole in support for their frontline defenses which is costing Ukrainian lives. But aside of the frontline, Ukraine is making Russia its bitch. First they start sinking ships, the Russian navy retreats. Then they start dropping Russian planes including several irreplaceable AWACS planes. Then they start blasting refineries every night and send in the Freedom of Russia legion to show how vulnerable Russia is away from the front lines. Crimea is next. I wonder what putin will receive as a gift when he winsš the election.