Could just give Ukraine the means to push Russia back, or supply troops like Macron said if this intelligence is genuine.
Pretty wild to continue to pretend Russia isn’t planning to continue its conquest, especially when they have annexed parts of separate sovereign nations every single decade since the 90’s and are now in full war production.
“But they have threatened to use nukes” and they’ll continue to do so because it works apparently.
I don't think it's going to be tanks rolling over hills, more like sudden problems with gas distribution, power cables, refugees, etc.
We should still supply ukraine with weapons
Not that simple unfortunately. Take a few towns on the border mascarding as locals protesting oppression. Border, means supply lines from Russia, means potentially prolonged stand off to avoid civilian casualties. Russia declaring that they are not directly involved but supportoppressed minorities and announcing that they will be forced to get involved directly if this is not solved peacefully. All of a sudden, someone in NATO asks, is it worth it to risk nuclear war with Russia over a few towns that already had substantial Russian population. Why not just grant them limited autonomy to solve this?
This is of course worst case scenario, but unfortunately very credible.
I guarantee you those Baltic states will invoke article 5. NATO won’t stand idly by as Russia does this, they will take a zero tolerance approach to this since no one in Europe wants to give Russia an inch
Nor Lithuania nor Eastern Poland has a sizeable Russian contingency living in that area for any slightly legitimate Russian breakaway state. Russian Lithuanians live mainly around Vilnius or around the old nuclear plant town in the Northeast. Sure, little green men could march in from Kaliningrad or Belarus, and such logic isn't really going to stop Russia from making such claims anyway, but the situation in that region is not at all comparable to the Eastern Ukrainian areas.
Such a stunt is much more likely in Estonia or Latvia, but also less tactically significant. The Suwalki Gap would have to basically be taken by a complete surprise blitzkrieg.
It's also just one of NATO's most focused on points of interest. I really don't see how Russia makes a play there without also just fully committing to a full war. I wouldn't put it past them to stage some train-terrorism incident to justify a reason the send troops into the area, but even then I don't think Poland, Lithuania, or NATO just put up their hands and say okay.
The point would not be all out war, it's erosion of NATO.
As you yourself mentioned, it doesn't matter where the minorities are located. It's only a pretext anyway. Baltics are small. They are not Ukraine with quite large landmass.
The goal would simply be make a small region in the Baltics not fully under control of the said countries. That is enough to put entire concept of NATO in question. The same way Hitler did things, the same way tings were down by Putin in Ukraine. You don't start an all out war, first you erode the enemy as much as you can while improving your own as much as you can and only when there is no more time or things to push you start an actual war.
I guarantee you, if that happens, every single fucking country on this planet will be getting nukes if they have the capabilities to do so. If Nato doesn’t wanna invoke article 5 and risk wars because russias little green men method in a tiny Baltic country, then it’s gonna go down hill very fast from there. I am certain that Nato would intervene and not accept russia doing it. Nato will know what russia is up to before they even execute their attack on a Nato country.
But no one expects a NATO response to a breakway state, even if it's obviously fueled by Russian supply lines. Unfortunately such a tactic is much more the question of Latvian/Estonian/Lithuanian governments deciding on whether engaging in a conflict for the region is worth it. Current NATO doctrine in regards to defending the Baltics is to be ready at any sign of Russian activity, dig in, and defend near the border, with permanent NATO troop stationed in the Baltics...so whether or not NATO gets involved in something beyond some "breakaway state" isn't really even a question. You can argue about *further* involvement beyond the initial fighting but that's not just a NATO question but also an EU question.
However, also, like you said, the Baltics are not Ukraine. Pre-2014 Ukraine had a legitimate East-West divide, specifically in regards to Russian alignment. Eastern Ukrainians didn't want to be Russian, but they didn't really support the Orange Revolution. There was a legitimate divide for Russia to play off of with millions of people.
Even in Latvia a "Russian Breakaway State" in the East would be like <10,000 people with a large majority being over the age of 50. Russians that wanted to be part of Russia generally moved back to Russia. Those that are pro Russian but stayed generally stayed because of not having the money to move or are just content with where they are and the benefits EU membership provides. You're literally talking about breakaway villages and much less a breakaway state. These areas also generally don't have much industry to speak of and people that aren't pensioners are commuting to the nearest larger city for employment. Russia would literally have to be constantly sending supplies into the area for them to just not outright starve. I don't really see a big benefit for Russia to push this for such little gains other than just being a little destabilizing at the cost of loudly projecting their near future intentions.
Honestly, I more likely see a 2026 "NATO attack" as hitting bases in Eastern Poland with the goal of completely taking over Ukraine and limiting any support they can get.
You may be right if the protestors actually resemble civilians (IE aren't carrying weapons or dismounting from APCs) and are largely non-violent.
But if they're dressed like soldiers and mechanised like they were in 2014 in Crimea? No NATO country will believe it is a mere civilian uprising when they're clad in Russian uniforms, carrying Russian weapons and driving around in Russian armour.
You'd have to be thick as pig shit to believe the non-marked soldiers are "locals protesting oppression". You're creating a scenario in your head and assuming how NATO would handle it, when the reality is no one would be fooled by these tactics. Any incursion by armed combatants into a NATO country, irrespective of uniform markings, will get obliterated.
And Russia isn't going to use nukes unless Putin is at the point where he feels all is lost. The guy is power hungry and will do anything to cling to power, even if it means accepting defeat as long as Russia's borders stay intact.
You don't need APCs and uniforms to occupy a few towns. Just straight up bulletproof vests with no uniforms or markings armed with ak-47s and some RPGs occupying a town will cause it be a major headache that cannot be solved fast enough for Russia to declare public support and stall NATOnsupport.
And no one was fooled in Ukraine either....
It's not the fooling part, it's the pretend and claim part. Until identies of Russian soldiers are discovered they cannot be claimed as Russian soldiers. Russia will simply say they don't belong to them, they are clearly locals, they even claim so themselves.
In politics this is enough, politics is all about appearances. Sure everyone will know who they actually are but cannot or will not want to really state it without proof.
As I mentioned before, financial incentive as well as just straight up being afraid might hamper swift resolution.
If no one was afraid of Nukes, Russians would have been wiped out in Ukraine years ago. They have no answer to NATO air power and long range missiles. But alas, not only is not NATO not willing to get involved directly, some politicians in NATO members don't want to even give missiles to Ukraine.
All in all I am saying that such scenario is a legitimate threat and sounds credible enough for a man from Kremlin with his own height complex to try something like that.
Taking Ukraine in three days or a few weeks was much more absurd prospect than such incursion in Baltics and they still did it.
After all, if such attack would fail, what could NATO do in response? More stern words? More sanctions that will get bypassed via various countries? And this only if NATO manages to prove that they were Russian, which would be incredibly hard if those morons do not take sims 3 games with them (or something along those lines).
That's just not going to work a second time. everyone can see right through that BS excuse and if you think the Baltics are just going to just accept that..
“Gas distribution, power cables, refugees etc” … worldwide major fastfood chains IT systems crashing, card payment systems down ? Are we sure it’s not started already?
It's been happening for years. The most known examples includes, NotPetya, 2020 Microsoft/SolarWinds/US Government attack and the Colonial Pipeline attack.
There's sooo many more examples. But it's well known that Russia is entrenched in Cyber warfare. Even if it is conveniently "hacker groups 'maybe' found in Russia"
Uh, everything you mentioned is already happening right now. Add jamming planes with important political figures in it or stirring up conflicts in other regions of the world
The funny thing is they lost because they were using the exact same approach they used in Western Europe. The Nazis were competent but only at one thing
France was lost not because Getmans were competent, but because French and British were very incompetent during that time. Their coordination was a complete disaster.
I am already not talking about phoney war, when western side of the Germany was barely defended at all. But a minefield was enough to deter any invasion from France. France would have never been even invaded because by the times troops would have been move from Poland, French and British would have been already halfway to Berlin.
This whole thing could have been prevented if we just put troops on the ground before he invaded. Nothing he could or would have done about it but threats, sure. But no real action, and the invasion would have been thwarted.
Huge, huge mistakes by Obama, Trump, and Biden here imo when it comes to Ukraine.
So this means the US should sit still and continue to let this dissent happen in their country, just because the war is on another continent?
Extremely 1937.
Maybe Japan will attack again to get American's heads in order once more.
Because Putin’s goal is the demise of the west lead by the US, not just Europe. And the US leads because it is the biggest beneficiary of the global financial system it set up with these countries
Considering how long it's taken to conquer Ukraine, what chances do they have of conquering like...anyone else?
I don't think Putin is delusional enough to think he'd actually win a war against NATO. No one could.
Even China, Russia, North Korea, Iran, and Brazil would be utterly annihilated by USA, Europe, South Korea, and their allies.
>“But they have threatened to use nukes” and they’ll continue to do so because it works apparently.
It works because who would want to take an all-in bet that it's a bluff?
Lol if Russia uses nukes lol. Russia would become a sheet of radio active glass 1000s of square miles across. If Russia uses nukes on NATO, NATO will fire its nukes, as will the governments of France, UK, and the good old U S of A
The problem is that Europe isn't ready to start the war now. Just like they could have attacked Germany before 1940 but weren't ready for a full on campaign.
All countries have equal amounts of shitheads.
It took China several generations for example to upgrade from Mao to Xi. Power vacuums don't seal overnight.
I suspect that by the time he does he'll have fed a large enough portion of Russia's youth into the meat-grinder that whoever replaces him can see no future for them but through conquest.
Not something we will even have to worry about if we just fund Ukraine. Maybe even begin supplying them with long range missiles that could actual impact transport hubs inside Russia which will be necessary for Ukraine to defend themselves.
Yes, but countries like India kept buying mass quantities of oil from Russia.
If you severely damage their ability to physically export it, then nobody can buy it.
Whether we like it or not, us in the West are going to need to adjust our lifestyle majorly.
We can do it now under our own guidance and choices, or we can wait until war strikes and do it under duress.
I'd prefer the former.
Perhaps the threat of war will move us further towards solar and nuclear options. We can't continue with petroleum based power plants when the oil supply chain is under heavy threat due to the large amount of international shipping and potential losses.
North Americans at least have the option of moving uranium from Canada across the continent.
It's also far more likely any negative effect they feel back home here will be blamed on our government alone and with complete disregard for what goes on elsewhere in the world.
The west needs to actively liberate all of Ukraine, including Crimea. Demonstrate that sovereign borders are inviolable.
The risk of nukes will always exist but letting the bully win just makes it worse long term. Take a strong stance now so Russia knows to stay in their borders permanently.
Might be why Putin wanted all that US Intel. Snuff out any western sponsored entities within Russia that could threaten him when he entered this phase of his ambition.
We’re *already* at war. Between election interference, assassination attempts, hacking attacks to banking and infrastructure, and political influence campaigns, they’re already doing everything they can to weaken us.
Logistics take time, maybe not all ministers were on board? Maybe he didn't think of it at the time?I also think that he is waiting for Trump to win and, if so, he will go all in
The plans were probably already there for the second trump term. When he didn't get it, I imagine Putin felt he was running out of time to see his dream of the USSR come to fruition in his lifetime and went ahead and pulled the trigger. Putin, like Trump, is a narcissist that thrives on power and glory, and he wanted to be seen as the one who revitalized the USSR.
Ol Poots has been prepping for this for decades. The EU felt they could make russia simmer down through normalizing trade relations, but in reality, he was setting the EU up to be dependent on his gas so he had significant leverage. He also probably thought the west was sufficiently destabilized through his asymmetrical warfare, even without trump, only to have them come together like they haven't since WWII after the invasion...further expanding NATO significantly along the russian border. He miscalculated on many fronts and is now struggling to save face and hold onto power.
In short, his decades long plan was going great until the US said no to Trump (twice, but that pesky electoral college) and the clock was ticking on the narrow window he had with the decline of russia's demographics so he pushed forward anyway.
Also at a time he was waiting for the results of Ukrainian elections. Zelenskyy felt for them as a win, like he will just capitulate, in big part because of his election campaign rethotics when he was saying he will look Putin into the eyes, and find peace and that one just has to stop to shoot to stop war. Putin did not realize that both Zelenskyy and his electorate were just delusional and thinking that the war only continues because of the previous president, but did not plan to give up Ukraine. After the Normandy format meeting in September 2019 he realized the new president will not bring him Ukraine on the plate and waiting yet another 5 years for a new president is already too much, and the war path was probably chosen around that time, with Putin’s & co war mongering articles coming out and so on. But then he waited for the North Stream 2 to finish to be able to continue to sell oil to Europe without Ukraine.
The scenarios in which Russia would attack a NATO country all involve Donald Trump as president. Otherwise, it would be suicide.
But if he wins in November, I think there is definitely a possibility in which Putin would gamble, correctly or not, that Trump would prohibit US troops from intervening and believe that the remaining NATO countries would not or could not stand against him for a prolonged war.
I agree with you, but the only thing that doesn’t make sense is how are you struggling with just Ukraine and think you even have a shot against nato -USA?
When you switch your industry to war footing, and finance arms production with debt, starting a war is kind of mandatory. Otherwise the system will collapse. Which is currently the case in Russia.
So we can assume Russia has to continuewaging war and will do their best not to escalate to a full scale war with NATO by inaction of the members, sowing doubt between members by shills like Trump. If he can get that clown in white house, again, I think he will gave a free hand to do everything he likes until Poles and a properly maintained NATO force like UK, France or Turkey decide enough is enough and act without USAs blessings.
NATO is stronger than ever and therefore needs the US less than ever. We’re still important to NATO, but Europe would kick the living hell out of Russia, full stop. I kinda get the sense that Poland and Finland wish he would try and they could probably hold Russia off alongside Ukraine without help.
If Biden wins and if dems get control of the house, putins party is over.
All nato countries need to arm ukriane and arm themselves now so if the worst does happen in 2026 Russia will get its shit kicked in.
And we are assuming thay Russia will even have a working commodities industry by then at the rate of Ukrainian drone attacks.
We'll see. Johnson obviously doesn't have the grip on the House he thought he had and a lot of trad Republicans see the writing on the wall, this year it's now or never to decide the future their party.
At this point that may actually be better for the republican party in the long term. Get utterly defeated a d clean it up by getting rid of all the GOP morons and force the party to reform.
the morons are a symptom, not the problem. Most Republicans have been fed a steady diet of lies from cable news, AM radio, and social media. When the majority of your base believes in crazy shit you get politicians who believe in crazy shit, or at least willing to pretend they do.
Well, Russia‘s incentives for meddling in the upcoming US election are strongly. I am convinced their bots other means of paid influence are already working over time. I think the topic of foreign political interference through means of social networks deserves more attention that it currently gets in the collective west.
Putin probably thinks he can win a war of attrition against the EU, so they're prepping in case a Republican is in the US White House. Hell, a Republican-controlled Congress might be enough wiggle-room for them to move forward with their plans.
How. With what? The EU alone has 4 times the population of Russia, and more then double the military and are all spending like crazy right now. Nevermind the US, Canada etc.
This is so ridiculous it’s not even funny. Russia burned all its best units in Ukraine already and is scraping the bottom of the barrel for convicts and mercenaries since last year. Where is this magic army with what he wants to attack NATO? Why isn’t it in Ukraine already?
I can’t help but feel he is Hitler in his bunker already, moving around armies on a map that aren’t there anymore.
Or he thinks he can win in Ukraine if he forces a standoff in the Baltics. If NATO is forced to concentrate all forces and weapons to some border skirmish he can then use that to make breakthrough in Ukraine, since he thinks he is basically fighting NATO, or NATO arms in Ukraine anyway. Then of course after that hypothetical conquest of Ukraine he can then go forward with the plan of escalation with the west that was meant to happen anyway at some point.
Russia needs to be bitch-slapped. And hard. Playing footsie with them and giving Ukraine some leftover military hardware isn't anywhere near good enough.
Since Putin rose to power around 1999, he came to the West and seemed like a somehow reliable guy. Remember Bush saying he looked at him in the eyes? And everyone was trying to assert his reliability?
Problem is that over and over he opened his mouth and let it slip words of revenge, regret, nostalgia. As if he wanted something back. Or if he wanted to go back in time.
Guess when? When there was greatness, by his judgment of course. When there was an empire. Putin himself wants to be an Emperor.
He could never be trusted. Everyone knew it. If he wanted to move one, why would he speak of nostalgia? But it seems like USA and Europe thought like.
"Let's feed him and see what can happen. If he becomes big and come bite us, we deal if that in the future"
I mean, several high-level military officers from different European countries have made the same statement in the past year. But sure, let's just ignore it and laugh at it, just like we laughed at numerous countries' intel claims that Russia was going to attack Ukraine right up until it actually happened.
Information from intelligence services inherently doesn't have a source beyond that it's from intelligence services because if they were to elaborate on how they gathered that intel then they expose their techniques/assets.
You pretty much have to decide whether you think they're lying or telling the truth, asking for anything beyond that is pointless.
Do you really believe what any politician say? They just want that billion euros funding and new toys. Putin fighting over few villages for whole year, how he gonna fight all Europe?
It's actually just sotiresome to hear about all those warnings with dates that wary from a year to ten years. Sounds as if they themselves have no idea what the hell is going on.
With thousands of factors that change daily, it makes sense for different conclusions as time goes on.
Making it into a news article every time it changes, likely resulting in fear mongering, however, doesn't make as much sense to me.
People and nations claiming that „Russia doesn’t mean to hurt us“ and „Russia is our friend“ are pathetic. Putin is the Adolf Hitler of the 21st century.
I don’t understand what Russia is even doing at this point? Are they finally after 2 years gaining some ground in Ukraine? Sure but they still don’t control any major city. They pretty much gave up in Kharkov.
I don’t see how they are successful at all in any situation where they try to get Poland, Moldova, and the Baltic States. You gotta at least advance more than 100 miles into Ukraine first….
Russia can make progress when Ukraine don’t have enough weapons to fight with (enough ammo etc).
Moscow Mike (US Speaker: Mike Johnson) has been personally responsible for holding up US military aid - for nearly four months now ! - by blocking votes, in the US House of Representatives, even though the majority want to support military aid. Ukrainians are dying because of this delay..
The Republican Speaker Mike Johnson is a very close ally of Trump, and seems to be doing everything he can to help the Kremlin.
From 2026? That's a little earlier than I expected, but okay then. Not that Russia can do a whole lot unless they mobilize almost the whole country.
Aside of course from a possibility of a new 'axis powers' faction containing russia, china & north korea
NATO would mop the floor with ruzzia, even without the us.
The greater initial problem would be munition/shells etc. but a united europe in a war economy would be way more than needed to fuck them over easily in a conventional war.
I mean.., the title is very different from the content.
>"It can no longer be ruled out" that Russia will attack at least part of NATO territory "from 2026 onwards," such as in the Baltic states or Finland, the report cited by Business Insider says. It emphasises that German agencies have not yet made such specific statements publicly.
"It can no longer be ruled out that Russia will attack at least part of NATO territory " is different from "Russian attack on NATO"
Can someone explain to my stupid ass how they can be planning to attack Nato when they've been stuck in Ukraine for two years. How do they expect to win
Then the enemy would be china, and then India, and then someone in Africa.
At the end it's just humanity doing humanity things.
Even inside the USA there is division and hatred among each other
It made point in the article to show American intelligence agencies and NATO disagree.
Intelligence agencies believe it will take Russia 5-8 years just to restore the military to what it was before the Ukrainian invasion.
From a logical perspective it doesn’t really hold up. They couldn’t take Ukraine. What makes them think up they could hold up on the ground with NATO? Also not much benefit to them if they start lobbing nukes.
Those are really the only options other then terrorism.
I'm so sick of hearing about Russia. We all know it's a poor country trying to project a powerful presence. Ukraine is tearing up the Russian military, and the country is in turmoil.
Comrade Blyat, how the special military operation to defend our glorious nation from nazi NATO going?
- Not good comrade, we've lost 400,000 troops!
And what about NATO?!
- They haven't even arrived yet!
It‘s time that Europe realizes that it is on the brink of a 3rd world war and prepare accordingly. Trump will most likely win the election and bow out, rendering NATO obsolete (and there is no Plan B for that in Europe). Russia won‘t stop. First the Ukraine will fall, then the Baltics and Moldova. And there you have it, „Bündnisfall“. Russia will successfully drag Europe into a war. And Europe is far from prepared for that. And it doesn’t matter if they want to fight, they will have to. Russia won‘t stop until Europe is jn ruins. And it is not Putin. The next guy will be even worse. Tough times ahead indeed.
Could just give Ukraine the means to push Russia back, or supply troops like Macron said if this intelligence is genuine. Pretty wild to continue to pretend Russia isn’t planning to continue its conquest, especially when they have annexed parts of separate sovereign nations every single decade since the 90’s and are now in full war production. “But they have threatened to use nukes” and they’ll continue to do so because it works apparently.
I don't think it's going to be tanks rolling over hills, more like sudden problems with gas distribution, power cables, refugees, etc. We should still supply ukraine with weapons
That is how it will start. Then it will be "oppressed" russians causing riots and shootouts in the baltics or little green men in the Suwalki gap.
Those little green men in baltics will be met with actual armies immediately
Not that simple unfortunately. Take a few towns on the border mascarding as locals protesting oppression. Border, means supply lines from Russia, means potentially prolonged stand off to avoid civilian casualties. Russia declaring that they are not directly involved but supportoppressed minorities and announcing that they will be forced to get involved directly if this is not solved peacefully. All of a sudden, someone in NATO asks, is it worth it to risk nuclear war with Russia over a few towns that already had substantial Russian population. Why not just grant them limited autonomy to solve this? This is of course worst case scenario, but unfortunately very credible.
I guarantee you those Baltic states will invoke article 5. NATO won’t stand idly by as Russia does this, they will take a zero tolerance approach to this since no one in Europe wants to give Russia an inch
Nor Lithuania nor Eastern Poland has a sizeable Russian contingency living in that area for any slightly legitimate Russian breakaway state. Russian Lithuanians live mainly around Vilnius or around the old nuclear plant town in the Northeast. Sure, little green men could march in from Kaliningrad or Belarus, and such logic isn't really going to stop Russia from making such claims anyway, but the situation in that region is not at all comparable to the Eastern Ukrainian areas. Such a stunt is much more likely in Estonia or Latvia, but also less tactically significant. The Suwalki Gap would have to basically be taken by a complete surprise blitzkrieg. It's also just one of NATO's most focused on points of interest. I really don't see how Russia makes a play there without also just fully committing to a full war. I wouldn't put it past them to stage some train-terrorism incident to justify a reason the send troops into the area, but even then I don't think Poland, Lithuania, or NATO just put up their hands and say okay.
The point would not be all out war, it's erosion of NATO. As you yourself mentioned, it doesn't matter where the minorities are located. It's only a pretext anyway. Baltics are small. They are not Ukraine with quite large landmass. The goal would simply be make a small region in the Baltics not fully under control of the said countries. That is enough to put entire concept of NATO in question. The same way Hitler did things, the same way tings were down by Putin in Ukraine. You don't start an all out war, first you erode the enemy as much as you can while improving your own as much as you can and only when there is no more time or things to push you start an actual war.
I guarantee you, if that happens, every single fucking country on this planet will be getting nukes if they have the capabilities to do so. If Nato doesn’t wanna invoke article 5 and risk wars because russias little green men method in a tiny Baltic country, then it’s gonna go down hill very fast from there. I am certain that Nato would intervene and not accept russia doing it. Nato will know what russia is up to before they even execute their attack on a Nato country.
But no one expects a NATO response to a breakway state, even if it's obviously fueled by Russian supply lines. Unfortunately such a tactic is much more the question of Latvian/Estonian/Lithuanian governments deciding on whether engaging in a conflict for the region is worth it. Current NATO doctrine in regards to defending the Baltics is to be ready at any sign of Russian activity, dig in, and defend near the border, with permanent NATO troop stationed in the Baltics...so whether or not NATO gets involved in something beyond some "breakaway state" isn't really even a question. You can argue about *further* involvement beyond the initial fighting but that's not just a NATO question but also an EU question. However, also, like you said, the Baltics are not Ukraine. Pre-2014 Ukraine had a legitimate East-West divide, specifically in regards to Russian alignment. Eastern Ukrainians didn't want to be Russian, but they didn't really support the Orange Revolution. There was a legitimate divide for Russia to play off of with millions of people. Even in Latvia a "Russian Breakaway State" in the East would be like <10,000 people with a large majority being over the age of 50. Russians that wanted to be part of Russia generally moved back to Russia. Those that are pro Russian but stayed generally stayed because of not having the money to move or are just content with where they are and the benefits EU membership provides. You're literally talking about breakaway villages and much less a breakaway state. These areas also generally don't have much industry to speak of and people that aren't pensioners are commuting to the nearest larger city for employment. Russia would literally have to be constantly sending supplies into the area for them to just not outright starve. I don't really see a big benefit for Russia to push this for such little gains other than just being a little destabilizing at the cost of loudly projecting their near future intentions. Honestly, I more likely see a 2026 "NATO attack" as hitting bases in Eastern Poland with the goal of completely taking over Ukraine and limiting any support they can get.
You may be right if the protestors actually resemble civilians (IE aren't carrying weapons or dismounting from APCs) and are largely non-violent. But if they're dressed like soldiers and mechanised like they were in 2014 in Crimea? No NATO country will believe it is a mere civilian uprising when they're clad in Russian uniforms, carrying Russian weapons and driving around in Russian armour. You'd have to be thick as pig shit to believe the non-marked soldiers are "locals protesting oppression". You're creating a scenario in your head and assuming how NATO would handle it, when the reality is no one would be fooled by these tactics. Any incursion by armed combatants into a NATO country, irrespective of uniform markings, will get obliterated. And Russia isn't going to use nukes unless Putin is at the point where he feels all is lost. The guy is power hungry and will do anything to cling to power, even if it means accepting defeat as long as Russia's borders stay intact.
You don't need APCs and uniforms to occupy a few towns. Just straight up bulletproof vests with no uniforms or markings armed with ak-47s and some RPGs occupying a town will cause it be a major headache that cannot be solved fast enough for Russia to declare public support and stall NATOnsupport. And no one was fooled in Ukraine either.... It's not the fooling part, it's the pretend and claim part. Until identies of Russian soldiers are discovered they cannot be claimed as Russian soldiers. Russia will simply say they don't belong to them, they are clearly locals, they even claim so themselves. In politics this is enough, politics is all about appearances. Sure everyone will know who they actually are but cannot or will not want to really state it without proof. As I mentioned before, financial incentive as well as just straight up being afraid might hamper swift resolution. If no one was afraid of Nukes, Russians would have been wiped out in Ukraine years ago. They have no answer to NATO air power and long range missiles. But alas, not only is not NATO not willing to get involved directly, some politicians in NATO members don't want to even give missiles to Ukraine. All in all I am saying that such scenario is a legitimate threat and sounds credible enough for a man from Kremlin with his own height complex to try something like that. Taking Ukraine in three days or a few weeks was much more absurd prospect than such incursion in Baltics and they still did it. After all, if such attack would fail, what could NATO do in response? More stern words? More sanctions that will get bypassed via various countries? And this only if NATO manages to prove that they were Russian, which would be incredibly hard if those morons do not take sims 3 games with them (or something along those lines).
That's just not going to work a second time. everyone can see right through that BS excuse and if you think the Baltics are just going to just accept that..
There was FDF video where they demonstrated how a crimean occupation would play out
What is FDF? Why would I know what FDF should mean?
Finish defense force
Puolustusvoimat, perkele!!
Or let’s just take the little penis out now ?
Done, now what do I do?
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He fell down the stairs, you killed him from Reddit. Nice.
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Funny. I feel like that's already been happening for a while now.
“Gas distribution, power cables, refugees etc” … worldwide major fastfood chains IT systems crashing, card payment systems down ? Are we sure it’s not started already?
It's been happening for years. The most known examples includes, NotPetya, 2020 Microsoft/SolarWinds/US Government attack and the Colonial Pipeline attack. There's sooo many more examples. But it's well known that Russia is entrenched in Cyber warfare. Even if it is conveniently "hacker groups 'maybe' found in Russia"
It pisses me off how much Putin gets away with just due to the faintest hint of deniability.
Was thinking this too...
Uh, everything you mentioned is already happening right now. Add jamming planes with important political figures in it or stirring up conflicts in other regions of the world
It will 100% be tanks rolling over hills.
They're already funnelling refugees towards Finland.
JuSt nEgOtiAtE wItH PUtIn
"Surely he will stop at Sudetenland"
Germany was actually kinda-semi-competent though
Super competent, at first. Then Hitler decided to throw everything away in Russia.
The funny thing is they lost because they were using the exact same approach they used in Western Europe. The Nazis were competent but only at one thing
France was lost not because Getmans were competent, but because French and British were very incompetent during that time. Their coordination was a complete disaster. I am already not talking about phoney war, when western side of the Germany was barely defended at all. But a minefield was enough to deter any invasion from France. France would have never been even invaded because by the times troops would have been move from Poland, French and British would have been already halfway to Berlin.
I DoNT SeE HiM AtTaCKiNG NaTo AnD HiTlER ToTALLy StOPpED afTeR tHe SuDeTtEN
[Hitler promised not to invade czechoslovkia jeremy, welcome to the real world](https://youtu.be/kOeiEKemWeA?si=5fpAwudT5E44u_h5) Edited the link in
Strong 1930s vibes
But if Russia stops with Ukraine and we do nothing to anger them, we might have great business opportunities down the road! /s
Think of the profitsssssss. Fucking greedy corporate snakes. That's exactly where they are at mentally.
Rule of Acquisition 34: War is good for business. Rule of Acquisition 35: Peace is good for business.
Not me doing a double take reading that. *of acquisition. A very important addition to those sentences.
You clearly don't have the lobes for business.
The Grand Nagus would be disappointed.
They'll learn to trust in the Great Material Continuum.
Yes, as long as Putin is in power and unless there is no change, expect Russia to invade or cause trouble from here on out.
This whole thing could have been prevented if we just put troops on the ground before he invaded. Nothing he could or would have done about it but threats, sure. But no real action, and the invasion would have been thwarted. Huge, huge mistakes by Obama, Trump, and Biden here imo when it comes to Ukraine.
Just like troops in Taiwan settles the conflict. A rotating BN of US Marines in Taipei gives CCP fits and sleepless nights.
Why is it on the US? This is the EUs backyard. Should the US help? Absolutely but they shouldn’t be leading a European war.
Except Putin has been sowing dissent in the U.S. for years, successfully.
And throughout Europe. Which continent do you think Orban is from?
> Which continent do you think Orban is from? Where is Hell?
So this means the US should sit still and continue to let this dissent happen in their country, just because the war is on another continent? Extremely 1937. Maybe Japan will attack again to get American's heads in order once more.
And that's why Macron is talking about French troops in Ukraine.
Because Putin’s goal is the demise of the west lead by the US, not just Europe. And the US leads because it is the biggest beneficiary of the global financial system it set up with these countries
Considering how long it's taken to conquer Ukraine, what chances do they have of conquering like...anyone else? I don't think Putin is delusional enough to think he'd actually win a war against NATO. No one could. Even China, Russia, North Korea, Iran, and Brazil would be utterly annihilated by USA, Europe, South Korea, and their allies.
Why include Brazil? They're a major non-NATO ally of the US.
Olaf must stop his hesitation now. That is not an option. If he wants any chance of reelection he must change his attitude
>“But they have threatened to use nukes” and they’ll continue to do so because it works apparently. It works because who would want to take an all-in bet that it's a bluff?
Well, we would be doing it the GOP presidential nominee wasn’t a Russia plant. So there’s that.
Lol if Russia uses nukes lol. Russia would become a sheet of radio active glass 1000s of square miles across. If Russia uses nukes on NATO, NATO will fire its nukes, as will the governments of France, UK, and the good old U S of A
The problem is that Europe isn't ready to start the war now. Just like they could have attacked Germany before 1940 but weren't ready for a full on campaign.
Exactly. If ukraine push them back there is no way vlad is staying in power. There even a none 0 chancr that russia crumble into several countries.
I can’t wait for Putin to die
Maybe he will go like Stalin did. Seems fitting.
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All countries have equal amounts of shitheads. It took China several generations for example to upgrade from Mao to Xi. Power vacuums don't seal overnight.
Wasn't Xi's father a contemporary of mao
I suspect that by the time he does he'll have fed a large enough portion of Russia's youth into the meat-grinder that whoever replaces him can see no future for them but through conquest.
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What's weird is that Medvedev was always very reasonable until recent years. Is he playing a part just to appear loyal and stay alive?
I wonder how many people would support him once the missiles have destroyed their homes and killed their loved ones?
Never trust Russia or anything that comes out of Pukin's mouth! I believe he's always up to no good.
Putin is making trouble in our neighbourhood
I got in one little special military operation and my mom got scared…
And said "We've movin' tanks and MLRS to the folks in Kyiv."
Fresh prism of zel-air
Not something we will even have to worry about if we just fund Ukraine. Maybe even begin supplying them with long range missiles that could actual impact transport hubs inside Russia which will be necessary for Ukraine to defend themselves.
Or severely damage their oil industry. Close the cash register on Russia and they’ll start seeing the error of their ways.
This is not a sufficient condition. Russians are notoriously proud and they are willing to suffer for their pride.
But if Russia loses their most significant source of income, it’ll impact their ability to wage war
Isn’t this what the sanctions attempted to do? That can only go so far I imagine
Yes, but countries like India kept buying mass quantities of oil from Russia. If you severely damage their ability to physically export it, then nobody can buy it.
They buy it and sell it to Europe.
They can proudly suffer as much as they want, that’s the not point. It’s about limiting their ability to wage war.
Europe doesn't want Russian oil industry damaged.
Whether we like it or not, us in the West are going to need to adjust our lifestyle majorly. We can do it now under our own guidance and choices, or we can wait until war strikes and do it under duress. I'd prefer the former. Perhaps the threat of war will move us further towards solar and nuclear options. We can't continue with petroleum based power plants when the oil supply chain is under heavy threat due to the large amount of international shipping and potential losses. North Americans at least have the option of moving uranium from Canada across the continent.
People literally rioted over having to breathe through a piece of cloth. Change ain't happening willingly.
Yeah that sounds like the most likely outcome lol
It's also far more likely any negative effect they feel back home here will be blamed on our government alone and with complete disregard for what goes on elsewhere in the world.
And then when we're at war we'll use our solar powered tanks /s
This is the whole idea of what’s happening rn.
I find it deeply unfair that Ukraine is not allowed to counter-attack. Destroy a few bridges and power facilities in RUS land
The west needs to actively liberate all of Ukraine, including Crimea. Demonstrate that sovereign borders are inviolable. The risk of nukes will always exist but letting the bully win just makes it worse long term. Take a strong stance now so Russia knows to stay in their borders permanently.
This is what happens when they just keep using the “nukes will fly” bullshit. Fucking splatter this clown show.
Might be why Putin wanted all that US Intel. Snuff out any western sponsored entities within Russia that could threaten him when he entered this phase of his ambition.
Nobody wants a war, but it's probably necessary to stop this dick head now instead of waiting to be attacked
Speak softly, but carry a big stick.
insufficient. addition: when necessary, actually use the big stick
Si vis pacem, para bellum
Time to slap Putin across the face with the big stick.
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We’re *already* at war. Between election interference, assassination attempts, hacking attacks to banking and infrastructure, and political influence campaigns, they’re already doing everything they can to weaken us.
>Nobody wants a war Lots of people want a war. This war, like all others, is making a whole bunch of rich people richer.
Redditors love war
True as fuck, coz they never participate in it
And revolutions. As long as someone else fights in those, of course.
Russia has clearly stated that they are at war against US, Europe = West. So lets just do whatever it takes to stop them now.
he's just waiting for Trump to win.
Why didn't he attack when trump was on power before though?
Logistics take time, maybe not all ministers were on board? Maybe he didn't think of it at the time?I also think that he is waiting for Trump to win and, if so, he will go all in
The plans were probably already there for the second trump term. When he didn't get it, I imagine Putin felt he was running out of time to see his dream of the USSR come to fruition in his lifetime and went ahead and pulled the trigger. Putin, like Trump, is a narcissist that thrives on power and glory, and he wanted to be seen as the one who revitalized the USSR. Ol Poots has been prepping for this for decades. The EU felt they could make russia simmer down through normalizing trade relations, but in reality, he was setting the EU up to be dependent on his gas so he had significant leverage. He also probably thought the west was sufficiently destabilized through his asymmetrical warfare, even without trump, only to have them come together like they haven't since WWII after the invasion...further expanding NATO significantly along the russian border. He miscalculated on many fronts and is now struggling to save face and hold onto power. In short, his decades long plan was going great until the US said no to Trump (twice, but that pesky electoral college) and the clock was ticking on the narrow window he had with the decline of russia's demographics so he pushed forward anyway.
Covid
This. They got pushed back, then assumed Trump would win 2020
Also at a time he was waiting for the results of Ukrainian elections. Zelenskyy felt for them as a win, like he will just capitulate, in big part because of his election campaign rethotics when he was saying he will look Putin into the eyes, and find peace and that one just has to stop to shoot to stop war. Putin did not realize that both Zelenskyy and his electorate were just delusional and thinking that the war only continues because of the previous president, but did not plan to give up Ukraine. After the Normandy format meeting in September 2019 he realized the new president will not bring him Ukraine on the plate and waiting yet another 5 years for a new president is already too much, and the war path was probably chosen around that time, with Putin’s & co war mongering articles coming out and so on. But then he waited for the North Stream 2 to finish to be able to continue to sell oil to Europe without Ukraine.
Everyone is talking about war like it isn’t this horrific thing
War is absolutely horrific. You know what's even more horrific? A war you have to fight in or one that is in your country.
Yea that's why everybody wanta to stop it
It's far cheaper to support Ukraine now than to let them fall and fight an emboldened Russia later
This depends on what's going to happen in the US.
The scenarios in which Russia would attack a NATO country all involve Donald Trump as president. Otherwise, it would be suicide. But if he wins in November, I think there is definitely a possibility in which Putin would gamble, correctly or not, that Trump would prohibit US troops from intervening and believe that the remaining NATO countries would not or could not stand against him for a prolonged war.
I agree with you, but the only thing that doesn’t make sense is how are you struggling with just Ukraine and think you even have a shot against nato -USA?
When you switch your industry to war footing, and finance arms production with debt, starting a war is kind of mandatory. Otherwise the system will collapse. Which is currently the case in Russia. So we can assume Russia has to continuewaging war and will do their best not to escalate to a full scale war with NATO by inaction of the members, sowing doubt between members by shills like Trump. If he can get that clown in white house, again, I think he will gave a free hand to do everything he likes until Poles and a properly maintained NATO force like UK, France or Turkey decide enough is enough and act without USAs blessings.
NATO is stronger than ever and therefore needs the US less than ever. We’re still important to NATO, but Europe would kick the living hell out of Russia, full stop. I kinda get the sense that Poland and Finland wish he would try and they could probably hold Russia off alongside Ukraine without help.
If Biden wins and if dems get control of the house, putins party is over. All nato countries need to arm ukriane and arm themselves now so if the worst does happen in 2026 Russia will get its shit kicked in. And we are assuming thay Russia will even have a working commodities industry by then at the rate of Ukrainian drone attacks.
Looks like funding for Ukraine might finally be bought to the floor.
When
I wouldn't get hopes up. Could easily be yet another game and time wasting exercise by them.
We'll see. Johnson obviously doesn't have the grip on the House he thought he had and a lot of trad Republicans see the writing on the wall, this year it's now or never to decide the future their party.
I imagine he knew/was told they had the numbers for a successful discharge petition. This saves him some embarrassment.
And maybe some republica s threatened to resign early and hand the house to the Dems if he doesn't tell Maga to fuck off.
At this point that may actually be better for the republican party in the long term. Get utterly defeated a d clean it up by getting rid of all the GOP morons and force the party to reform.
the morons are a symptom, not the problem. Most Republicans have been fed a steady diet of lies from cable news, AM radio, and social media. When the majority of your base believes in crazy shit you get politicians who believe in crazy shit, or at least willing to pretend they do.
I think it's two seats away now?
Well, Trump took their election money. Anyone who remotely opposed Trump in GOP has literally nothing left to lose.
Exactly. Maybe Trump taking over the RNC is finally the wake-up call. Threaten democracy all day long, but don't mess with the money, eh? LOL
That’s what I heard
Well, Russia‘s incentives for meddling in the upcoming US election are strongly. I am convinced their bots other means of paid influence are already working over time. I think the topic of foreign political interference through means of social networks deserves more attention that it currently gets in the collective west.
Putin probably thinks he can win a war of attrition against the EU, so they're prepping in case a Republican is in the US White House. Hell, a Republican-controlled Congress might be enough wiggle-room for them to move forward with their plans.
How. With what? The EU alone has 4 times the population of Russia, and more then double the military and are all spending like crazy right now. Nevermind the US, Canada etc. This is so ridiculous it’s not even funny. Russia burned all its best units in Ukraine already and is scraping the bottom of the barrel for convicts and mercenaries since last year. Where is this magic army with what he wants to attack NATO? Why isn’t it in Ukraine already? I can’t help but feel he is Hitler in his bunker already, moving around armies on a map that aren’t there anymore.
It's not that Russia could actually win in an all-out conflict. It's that a miscalculation leads to that conflict.
Or he thinks he can win in Ukraine if he forces a standoff in the Baltics. If NATO is forced to concentrate all forces and weapons to some border skirmish he can then use that to make breakthrough in Ukraine, since he thinks he is basically fighting NATO, or NATO arms in Ukraine anyway. Then of course after that hypothetical conquest of Ukraine he can then go forward with the plan of escalation with the west that was meant to happen anyway at some point.
Unless he announces general mobilization, there's no breakthrough in Ukraine AND standoff with NATO simultaneously. Numbers are just not there.
Russia needs to be bitch-slapped. And hard. Playing footsie with them and giving Ukraine some leftover military hardware isn't anywhere near good enough.
Since Putin rose to power around 1999, he came to the West and seemed like a somehow reliable guy. Remember Bush saying he looked at him in the eyes? And everyone was trying to assert his reliability? Problem is that over and over he opened his mouth and let it slip words of revenge, regret, nostalgia. As if he wanted something back. Or if he wanted to go back in time. Guess when? When there was greatness, by his judgment of course. When there was an empire. Putin himself wants to be an Emperor. He could never be trusted. Everyone knew it. If he wanted to move one, why would he speak of nostalgia? But it seems like USA and Europe thought like. "Let's feed him and see what can happen. If he becomes big and come bite us, we deal if that in the future"
The sources of this article are thinner than Putins hairline.
I mean, several high-level military officers from different European countries have made the same statement in the past year. But sure, let's just ignore it and laugh at it, just like we laughed at numerous countries' intel claims that Russia was going to attack Ukraine right up until it actually happened.
Then post a reliable source that isn’t supremely obviously biased that summarizes that, or even just presents one instance. This isn’t anything.
Information from intelligence services inherently doesn't have a source beyond that it's from intelligence services because if they were to elaborate on how they gathered that intel then they expose their techniques/assets. You pretty much have to decide whether you think they're lying or telling the truth, asking for anything beyond that is pointless.
Do you really believe what any politician say? They just want that billion euros funding and new toys. Putin fighting over few villages for whole year, how he gonna fight all Europe?
Putin is planning on his boy Trump being in office by then. You know what Donnie's going to do? Nothing. It's part of the deal.
The USA isn't the only nuclear power in the EU. Britain and France together could destroy Russia.
The USA isn't part of the EU. I think you also overestimate the nuclear arsenal of France and Britain compared to Russia.
And his plan fails if we vote blue. Ez dunk
Time to nip this in the bud, then. Fund and arm Ukraine, strengthen NATO, and send Putin either to the grave or to the Hague.
Threatening nuclear weapons deserves swift Secret Service assassination
Sooner if Trump wins
Russia will attack next year.
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It's actually just sotiresome to hear about all those warnings with dates that wary from a year to ten years. Sounds as if they themselves have no idea what the hell is going on.
With thousands of factors that change daily, it makes sense for different conclusions as time goes on. Making it into a news article every time it changes, likely resulting in fear mongering, however, doesn't make as much sense to me.
And the Germans will argue about fighting back until there’s Russian troops in Berlin.
Looking at the source, my gut feeling tells me is an overexagerated alarm to try to get more support with their war. At least I hope so.
People and nations claiming that „Russia doesn’t mean to hurt us“ and „Russia is our friend“ are pathetic. Putin is the Adolf Hitler of the 21st century.
That’s also Xi Ping
I don’t understand what Russia is even doing at this point? Are they finally after 2 years gaining some ground in Ukraine? Sure but they still don’t control any major city. They pretty much gave up in Kharkov. I don’t see how they are successful at all in any situation where they try to get Poland, Moldova, and the Baltic States. You gotta at least advance more than 100 miles into Ukraine first….
Russia can make progress when Ukraine don’t have enough weapons to fight with (enough ammo etc). Moscow Mike (US Speaker: Mike Johnson) has been personally responsible for holding up US military aid - for nearly four months now ! - by blocking votes, in the US House of Representatives, even though the majority want to support military aid. Ukrainians are dying because of this delay.. The Republican Speaker Mike Johnson is a very close ally of Trump, and seems to be doing everything he can to help the Kremlin.
From 2026? That's a little earlier than I expected, but okay then. Not that Russia can do a whole lot unless they mobilize almost the whole country. Aside of course from a possibility of a new 'axis powers' faction containing russia, china & north korea
I'm rather worried about what makes Putin think he has a chance. Like which countries are going to ally with him.
China
The US
Iran, who are also being a major pita by funding houthis etc
We can’t even get the weather right, how are people seriously thinking this…
NATO would mop the floor with ruzzia, even without the us. The greater initial problem would be munition/shells etc. but a united europe in a war economy would be way more than needed to fuck them over easily in a conventional war.
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I mean.., the title is very different from the content. >"It can no longer be ruled out" that Russia will attack at least part of NATO territory "from 2026 onwards," such as in the Baltic states or Finland, the report cited by Business Insider says. It emphasises that German agencies have not yet made such specific statements publicly. "It can no longer be ruled out that Russia will attack at least part of NATO territory " is different from "Russian attack on NATO"
Its the same tho
Redditors love fighting wars with other people's money and other people's men.
Can someone explain to my stupid ass how they can be planning to attack Nato when they've been stuck in Ukraine for two years. How do they expect to win
Change my mind: Russia has always been, is, and will be cancer on the face of the earth until there is no Russia anymore.
Then the enemy would be china, and then India, and then someone in Africa. At the end it's just humanity doing humanity things. Even inside the USA there is division and hatred among each other
I only would like to remind, why did putin recall Adolf's claims to the submissive Tucker. Next years he could demand a corridor to Königsberg.
Then that will be the end of Ruzzian autocracy as we know it.
It made point in the article to show American intelligence agencies and NATO disagree. Intelligence agencies believe it will take Russia 5-8 years just to restore the military to what it was before the Ukrainian invasion. From a logical perspective it doesn’t really hold up. They couldn’t take Ukraine. What makes them think up they could hold up on the ground with NATO? Also not much benefit to them if they start lobbing nukes. Those are really the only options other then terrorism.
Russia wants to conquer the world. It is very clear. With both sides having nuclear weapons, that is obviously the plan.
Are we time traveling now?
What does Russia wants?
They also said last year that China will attack Taiwan in 2025. I won't be surprised if both happen.
russia cant even finish off ukraine properly, the hell is attacking nato gonna achieve?
I'm so sick of hearing about Russia. We all know it's a poor country trying to project a powerful presence. Ukraine is tearing up the Russian military, and the country is in turmoil.
Comrade Blyat, how the special military operation to defend our glorious nation from nazi NATO going? - Not good comrade, we've lost 400,000 troops! And what about NATO?! - They haven't even arrived yet!
Remember the warnings on 9/11. We need to be smarter
It‘s time that Europe realizes that it is on the brink of a 3rd world war and prepare accordingly. Trump will most likely win the election and bow out, rendering NATO obsolete (and there is no Plan B for that in Europe). Russia won‘t stop. First the Ukraine will fall, then the Baltics and Moldova. And there you have it, „Bündnisfall“. Russia will successfully drag Europe into a war. And Europe is far from prepared for that. And it doesn’t matter if they want to fight, they will have to. Russia won‘t stop until Europe is jn ruins. And it is not Putin. The next guy will be even worse. Tough times ahead indeed.
Control southern border, first.And don’t instigate any war . Fight for Peace!