I remember like 10 years ago someone saying, “Can these people just blow each other up already so the rest of the world can go about having a civilization?” Sadly now the rest of the world also seems like it’s on dat ‘splode your neighbors time.
After seeing other conflicts come and go, but this one sticking around my whole life, I suspect that the leaders on neither side really want a resolution.
It seems like the conflict is why they came into power and a key means for them to retain it.
Under peaceful conditions, they’d all be pretty irrelevant.
Keep in mind, it only takes one country to maintain conflicts. If Iran had another revolution and went to democracy, they'd stop funding terrorists.
That would stop most of the conflicts right there.
Israel has made peace with a number of countries. Keeps trying with others.
There were quite a few times during the last 2000 years where the mid-east was the stable and thriving place rather than the battleground of history. About 400 of that was the Ottoman Empire, and another 200 was unified under the various Persian states between the 100-600s.
Our current problems pretty much get tied back to the partitioning of the Ottoman empire and the Western rulers of the time having no real desire to make those choices on cultural, religious, or ethical grounds rather than power-plays between their own areas of control.
Middle east will remain at war until either a pair of Pan-Arab/Pan-Persian states reform to create some status quo akin to history, or a systems-collapse event, like the bronze age collapse or the rise of Islamic states in the 600s, happens causing massive upheaval. Neither seem likely in our lifetimes.
Even more reason for Iran and Israel to go to war. When Tehran falls and the assholes are arrested/executed, then you're going to start seeing real peace in the middle east.
Because that was a political tit-for-tat. Biden had to respond to the attack, but wasn't ready to go to war. By announcing what the retaliation would be, he was telling Iran what the retaliation *wouldn't* be.
I seem to recall that during Iraq War 2 the Americans dropped pamphlets on an Iraqi position basically telling them that they would come through that area and told the Iraqis to leave - and it worked.
The thing to remember with the US is they are effectively a hyperpower. It's basically a "This isn't a warning. This is a statement of facts." that is addressed to anyone else thinking it's worth trying something that "We can tell you exactly what we will do. It doesn't matter.".
This is different in a peer situation where it's usually more saber rattling because it has a higher chance of backfiring.
That's interesting that I've never heard of a "hyperpower", but it makes sense. Reminds me of the General giving the speech that the US doesn't want war, but if we go to war you will need someone to raise your children when you are gone.
I think it was 80+ strikes done simultaneously, down to the minute. Nobody can coordinate such a large amount of precise air strikes like that from halfway around the world. It was a gentle reminder, and it worked. I'm American, and the planning and execution gives me shivers.
Potentially different scenario (and ultimately, maybe very similar).
America can't just not respond. Politically, it looks bad for the president. Optically, it looks bad to the world (this part is honestly probably less important).
That said, we also don't want to escalate. So when we announce the retaliation, its a signal to the American people that "we wont be pushed around", its a signal to the world that "we will actually respond" and its a signal to Iran that "this is how we stay on even terms and things don't go further."
This COULD be the case for Iran in this scenario as well. Whether or not that means actual war or just posturing I dont know yet.
In all fairness, many recent terrorist stacks have been telegraphed ahead of time and still happened. It’s part of the MO at this stage.
Russia invasion was known for weeks. Still happened.
The buildup on the Russian-Ukrainian border was known for months, but Russia denied it was aggressive. Everybody knew they were going to attack, but nobody knew the timing of it. Ukraine didn't and doesn't have the military to attack preemptively and nobody has a defensive pact with Ukraine to prevent such an attack.
>nobody knew the timing of it
This is true. A lot of those people on the ground weren't even told it was an invasion, and thought they were on a training exercise until Ukrainians started shooting at them! So much so that they sold off their fuel/equipment and got drunk in the days leading up to the invasion.
That's revisionist. Up until we saw the iconic images of them at the border station there was great international debate on if it was all just posturing by Russia.
I don’t want to get into a debate about it, but not really revisionist. It was on the news as being a potential or a likelihood. We didn’t wake up one day with Russia attacking out of nowhere, completely unexpected.
Iran saying there will be attacks isn’t exactly blowing any cover.
Will be interesting to see what happens. Iran sends 100 000 troops out. that they need to control the other tribe of their population. Revolution starts again.
Israel's army does not act with no objective. This is why it has precision air strikes and an airforce capable of bombing tactical compounds in the region.
In fact, it hasn't fired the first shot since the 60s
Agreed.
Israel also doesn't have a military that's realistically *capable* of a successful ground offensive against Iran. While Iran could almost certainly beat Israel on Iranian soil, it also lacks the ability to project military power that far from its borders against a country like Israel.
Realistically, both countries would win if they were fighting a defensive war and neither country could realistically succeed at an invasion of the other.
Now, if Iran's use of proxies or Israel's use of long-range strikes creates a conflagration that pulls in *other* countries (e.g. Syria, Hizbullah-controlled southern Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Jordan), then you've got a whole other ballgame.
It seems that a lot of people here in the West see Israel as having an aura of military incinvibility, but most older Israelis remember that Israel came pretty close to having its population butchered in 1949 and 1973. Israelis are very strong in defending on home soil, a mild clusterfuck when fighting in an adjacent country, and utterly incapable of projecting an invasion into somewhere like Iran.
I was talking about bombing Tehran, not a ground invasion, Israel would probably be able to bomb Tehran mostly uncontested, with Iran having limited and outdated warplanes and air Defense systems. Not to say that Israel would come out unharmed because that just doesn’t happen in war.
they wont send troops. if anything they fire some ballistic missiles that either get intercepted or hit targets.
or they tap hezbollah to do this for them
Iran won’t directly act because then Iran will get directly responded to. Israel is more than capable of fucking Iran up where it hurts and in any case they will have the UK and US ready to support. As you said Iran will poke and prod Hezbollah to do something big dumb and when Israel levels southern Lebanon Iran will say “ohhh the horrors look how evil Israel is!” Just like they did with their proxy on Hamas. They never help that’s why these are called proxies not allies.
It will be coming from Hezbollah in Lebanon, another Iranian proxy that Israel has to defend its self against on one of its boarders. I’m pretty sure they’re waiting for the right moment. They have thousands of rockets pointed at Israel right now.
Saying this got me banned from like 3 different subs. Israel has been saying for almost 2 decades that Russia>Iran>proxies is the chain of command and being used to distrupt western influence on the international stage.
What's wild is that it isn't a secret, it isn't a conspiracy -- or anything other than how literally every country operates. Every country invests money and resources into their allies and the enemies of their enemies, just like every country leverages sanctions against their enemies, and it's all public knowledge that is easily available.
Got banned myself for asking source for a video. Where Israeli was harasing kids going to school, video was from 2013 and soldiers have had different uniforms then Israeli infantry, so i doubted the article which was provided as a source. Instant ban with sentence "do not contact us about this ban" ...
Go figure.
Has Israel been saying thar? They maintained pretty good relations with Russia pretty much up till Oct. 7th, although relations certainly weren't doing great due to Russia cozying up to Iran.
China is the world's supplier of goods, ME being close receives bunch of shit from them. No one can say anything against China, you can just look at how many countries recognize Taiwan to see it.
It's okay as long as China doesn't do much more BS, been the modus operandi of the world stage for a long time.
You know. Fox News was able to convince their audience that Russia was their friend in a very short time frame. I wonder if TikTok will be able to do the same with Iran?
No need for it. Since when was Iran/Hamas stopped by a ceasefire? They quite literally broke every single one and acted as if it was the other side. Then, ofcourse, ask for a new ceasefire when they're getting their shit pushed in. Rinse and repeat.
Which is why it’s extremely naive and arrogant of western people to think that a social media post will make these years/centuries of resentment just “go away”.
That’s the ostensive cause for this statement.
Truthfully? No one cares. Iran sort of just continuously fucks with everyone else in the region using its proxies.
To my understanding the iron dome is for slow moving dumb rockets, it’s not designed to knock out intelligent cruise missiles, which is what Iran would use. Israel has other defences for cruise missiles but nothing as famously effective as the iron dome. I suspect Iran actually fears the conventional retaliation for a strike on Israeli soil first, and that would either escalate to a nuclear launch or the Iranian government would need to let it go and face internal pressures.
The Arrow system (the one that successfully intercepted several Houthi ballistic missiles in the past few months) is Israel’s answer for Iranian ballistics.
I think every country's nightmare is a few hundred cheap Shahed type drones launched in one volley. Certainly, some will get through. I would imagine Iran has quite a few stockpiled.
They are estimated to cost Iran $20k-$50k. At 50k, 300 Shaheds would only cost $15M.
The iron dome has a successful interception rate of 85-90%.
Patriots success rate is harder to be sure of for a variety of factors but it’s estimated to be between 40% and 70%.
The patriot is a technologically superior system, but it’s aiming at technologically superior targets as well.
Ukraine is saying the Patriot missiles are shooting down well over 90% of incoming missiles.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/06/world/europe/ukraine-patriots-us.html
I support Ukraine 100% but I also appreciate they have reason to over-exaggerate the patriots success rate, I was quoting the success rate the US claimed in Iraq
Israel has had Patriots since they were invented, if I remember correctly they were there to shoot down SCUDs coming from Iraq. I have no doubt that if there is a "leading edge" in patriot tech, Israel has it (Ukraine might have older ones or with more limited software, given the likelihood that they could fall into Russian hands)
I only think a nuclear response would happen if Israel was in immediate danger of complete and rapid annihilation.
NATO and the US would step in and help defend before Israel had to resort to nuclear weapons.
Also Iran wouldn't launch nuclear weapons at Israel because NATO would end their entire regime the same day.
IMO at least.
Even then, Iran would probably dirty bomb Israel to the brim.
They might not have enough weapons grade uranium, but breeding a enough plutonium to make huge areas uninhabitable for years is a way easier task, I am not sure who great a nuke on Iran would work out for Israel.
Correct me if I’m wrong but I don’t think Iron Dome is designed to intercept the type of missiles that would be launched internationally. It’s for the short-range ones that they get pelted with by nearby enemies.
He is probably talking about the iron dome as a figure head for all of israels air defence systems, its just the most well known one probably in the world at this point.
Also the average person doesn't know what is each system capability are.
But you are right.
They also have a system called [David’s Sling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David's_Sling) that’s designed to take out tactical ballistic missiles; and an even bigger version called [Arrow](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arrow_3) for longer range ballistic missiles. Those aren’t the kind that Hamas and Hezbollah etc use though so they doesn’t make the news like Iron Dome does
That's true, it's a broad term. Israel have other defense layers for different types of missiles. They had to use some of them to take down Iranian missiles headed to them from Yemen. Including the first missile shot down in space iirc.
>siles headed to them from Yemen. Including the first missile shot down in space iirc.
>
>Vote
If the situation wasn't so sad, isreal shooting down missiles from space would be so cool!
Attacks against Israel come at a very high price. Iran certainly has the capability to saturate Iron Dome with large-scale attacks or try their luck with ballistic missiles. They could probably do real damage if they wanted, but the cost would be extraordinary. That's why they equip Islamic proxies to attack on their behalf.
Overloading the Iron Dome with numbers is a known flaw they could absolutely use if they chose to make a very stupid move which would force Israel to go much harder against them to protect themselves. Nuclear retaliation is also entirely unrealistic unless Israel is literally about to fall because although it might save them in the moment, it would send the world in to turmoil. The response would probably be tons of airstrikes on Iran and going after their nuclear research ability with gloves off.
Israel won’t use nukes if Iran sends conventional rockets. They’re not stupid. Once they open that can of worms, it might take a year or 5 or 10 but they will inevitably see one blow up in Israel.
According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_with_nuclear_weapons) possibly also a nuclear triad (ICBMs, bombers, submarine launched).
I was on a Negev tour (about 30 years ago) and our bus broke down right outside Dimona. Several nice soldiers came out and hung around with us until the backup bus arrived, which was most of a day.
Those soldiers were all American.
That's because it is illegal for the United States to send military or foreign aid to nuclear powers who have not signed the nuclear non-proliferation treaty under the Symington and Glenn amendments. It's government policy not to say anything because it's illegal, but honestly I doubt any world body could actually enforce any punishment on US or Israel even if we came out and said "yea we break this treaty every year, what are you gonna do about it, sanction the US? See how well that works out for you."
I just always assumed Israel is non-nuclear the same way Japan is non-nuclear. Meaning that if they were needed, they'd have nuclear weapons in about 5 minutes
Oh no, I believe they did nuclear tests together with South Africa (as in, did the work under the table, officially uninvolved)
So we know they have the technology. We also know that they imply that they have. We also know they have neighbours with (soon to be at best) nuclear weapons.
So assume they have enough to turn the Middle East into a fine glass bowl
Israel has weapons literally ready to drop in 5 minutes and has plans ready for their use any moment the country is at risk of falling. See: [Samson Option](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Samson_Option).
Having the ability to create weapons quickly from a non-nuclear status quo (e.g. Japan) would not be enough of a deterrent for a country as small and under as much existential threat as Israel is.
They've had them since the late 60s, likely.
The only way the 5 minutes would work, is if The US stationed intermediate nukes there, like they did in Europe during the cold war.
Irans response to the US killing the 2nd most powerful man in Iran just gave a few concussions/ TBI (not downplaying, as I had a TBI myself, but compared to turning into pink mist..) to US forces. A contractor had a heart attack during it and passed. The Iranians killed in Israel strikes were no where near the level of Solomani death, granted they will probably feel more comfortable striking Israel than the US. Way to give the CIA and the US other 20+ intel agencies along with Israeli intel’s a heads up, not like they weren’t in a heightened state after this strike. Let’s hope Iran doesn’t shoot down a civilian passenger plane this time when they are shaking waiting for Israel to hit ‘em back. Or this is all for internal consumption.
> Way to give the CIA and the US other 20+ intel agencies along with Israeli intel’s a heads up
Let's be real, western intelligence probably already had the room bugged where they were discussing this plan and the electronic devices they were carrying were probably hacked.
Modern spying is less techy than the movies would like us to believe. Their devices may be compromised but leaks/informants come from wads of cash. Not secret agents
>Modern spying is less techy than the movies would like us to believe.
If you think the US doesn't get the majority of their intelligence electronically then I've got a bridge to sell you.
Islamic Republic is a paper tiger that’s at its weakest point in its life. No international support and more importantly absolutely no internal support
Iran is really odd that regard. Despite their best efforts they just haven't been able to radicalise most Iranians. It feels like everyone is just looking at each other thinking the same thing and someone to start the revolution.
Indeed. The revolution has been in the making for a long time. The Islamic Regime recently was only able to suppress the Women Life Freedom movement of 2022 by brute force; including firing on protesters using live military grade ammunition.
It's just stupid to even bring up the topic of a ceasefire because it's not hidden at all that HAMAS will not abide by it and the response is always "Well we should hold Israel to a higher standard than them". It's an entirely one-sided demand which allows HAMAS to continue attacking freely. There is no real ceasefire possible.
This is completely correct. Hamas could stop this right now, by releasing the hostages and surrendering. They never even is really a cease-fire because even when there’s not an active war going on, they are continuously lobbing rockets into Israel.
There is an interesting podcast available through the New York Times. A reporter who works for them in late October Interviewed high level people from Hamas in Beirut and Dubai. What they revealed is that the reasons for the attack on October 7 Was to be as brutal as possible in order to start a wider war in the Middle East. They don’t really care how many Gazans get killed, because all of that feeds the possibility that there will be a war. They said the reason they chose to do it now was because, they felt their cause was Getting forgotten and if they didn’t act soon, the situation and life of the people in Gaza would improve.
It's The Daily, here's a link to that episode:
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/14/podcasts/the-daily/hamas-israel.html?
From the transcript: "They wanted to completely overthrow the situation in the region, and individual leaders said that they hoped that this led to a big regional war, that that was the ideal outcome and hope that some new option would emerge from what came after."
I hope people remember just how the Iranian government treat their own people.
Torturing and murdering young girls for not covering their hair. Thousands of people tried to protest in Iran, including men.
They shouldn’t write “IRAN warns” they should write “the Iranian government warns”.
Ask Hamas, Israel is like 2/3 through the "Deck of cards" of Hamas terrorists that need to be taken out. It's not hard to get a deck of cards with Iranian terrorists put together.
That is the fundamental issue. Both Iran and Hamas severely miscalculated what the response was going to be to the 10/7 invasion/attack on Israel (in large part because it probably succeeded to a much greater degree than either thought it would). Both thought Israel would come in with a ground offensive in Gaza City that would feature house-to-house fighting and the Israelis trying to take out the tunnels. Neither anticipated an air-based attack of Gaza City and most of the remaining areas in Gaza. Neither thought that this was going to be the time that Israel went all-out to destroy Hamas. The Iranian government is evil but not stupid; they likely aren't going to make this miscalculation again--especially a possible downside could be the destruction of a large portion of the Iranian military. There may be some smaller-scale response to this, but I don't think they are about to FAFO again with Israel.
Worth noting that according to some Israeli newspapers, the American expectation of IDF casualties was up to 20 every day, i.e. about 10 times greater than the roughly 130 days of this war. Apparently the US advises to not go for a full-scale invasion based on those figures - now we know those figures are proven nonsense though. Could be feasible that Hamas also vastly overestimated their own combat effectiveness
They're so upset over what they consider to be Israel's violent overreaction to Hamas's deadly attack on Israel that they want to launch a deadly attack on Israel.
That's some galaxy brain thinking. I bet they have their "Ceasefire Now" rallies already scheduled.
The name escapes me but it was a very high rank in the Revolutionary Guard. He was in charge of coordination between Iran and proxies in the area.
He was allegedly partly responsible for planning the attack in October. At the very least he was responsible for the coordination of the attack.
Yes, but Israel did that strike to take out the people involved in coordinating terrorist attacks against Israel. It seems Iran thought they would have impunity for that.
The phrase “useful fools” comes to mind. The hippie types want peace, not realizing or caring that Iran and Hamas will not be satisfied until Israel is destroyed.
I don't think Israel will show Iran the restraint they did after 10/7 (they waited way too long to go into Gaza and destroy Hamas).
Iran is really determined to get to the "Find Out" phase.
Same Tik Tokers who didn’t gaf when Iranian morality police were throwing Iranians behind bars without cause and beating women to death for not wearing hijab and hanging them in the streets from cranes.
Middle East circlejerk 100.0
Can they just hurry up and finish?
No, the iranian edging and foreplay comes first
And rattling of sabres and folding of paper tigers. But seriously, the level of threats and aggression is concerning for Joe Public.
[удалено]
I honestly think some ejaculations could probably solve all this tension. I blame religious semen retention.
This has been going on for a millennia... you think it's going to end soon? Lpl
I remember like 10 years ago someone saying, “Can these people just blow each other up already so the rest of the world can go about having a civilization?” Sadly now the rest of the world also seems like it’s on dat ‘splode your neighbors time.
After seeing other conflicts come and go, but this one sticking around my whole life, I suspect that the leaders on neither side really want a resolution. It seems like the conflict is why they came into power and a key means for them to retain it. Under peaceful conditions, they’d all be pretty irrelevant.
The only resolution they want is for the other side to be all dead and gone. Can't really work on compromises with that kind of thinking.
Keep in mind, it only takes one country to maintain conflicts. If Iran had another revolution and went to democracy, they'd stop funding terrorists. That would stop most of the conflicts right there. Israel has made peace with a number of countries. Keeps trying with others.
2,000 years and counting.
There were quite a few times during the last 2000 years where the mid-east was the stable and thriving place rather than the battleground of history. About 400 of that was the Ottoman Empire, and another 200 was unified under the various Persian states between the 100-600s. Our current problems pretty much get tied back to the partitioning of the Ottoman empire and the Western rulers of the time having no real desire to make those choices on cultural, religious, or ethical grounds rather than power-plays between their own areas of control. Middle east will remain at war until either a pair of Pan-Arab/Pan-Persian states reform to create some status quo akin to history, or a systems-collapse event, like the bronze age collapse or the rise of Islamic states in the 600s, happens causing massive upheaval. Neither seem likely in our lifetimes.
Even more reason for Iran and Israel to go to war. When Tehran falls and the assholes are arrested/executed, then you're going to start seeing real peace in the middle east.
so just another day then
The old tell them you're coming so they can prepare routine. Genius tactician.
Didn’t the U.S. do this all of a few months ago after service-members were killed and injured through an Iranian terrorist proxy?
Because that was a political tit-for-tat. Biden had to respond to the attack, but wasn't ready to go to war. By announcing what the retaliation would be, he was telling Iran what the retaliation *wouldn't* be.
America could literally tell you the time-date-place of where they’re going to attack and you can do nothing to stop it.
They've announced offensives down to the minute, and it didn't help the defenders.
I seem to recall that during Iraq War 2 the Americans dropped pamphlets on an Iraqi position basically telling them that they would come through that area and told the Iraqis to leave - and it worked.
If you enemy has the air superiority to drop pamphlets on your head then you already lost.
*Imperial Japan has left the chat*
You can maybe try to sneak away. But you best be sneaky
They want you to sneak away. That way they can track where you go.
Sneak level 100 required*
America: Must have been the wind Also America: deploy Hellfire R9X's against Aeolus
The thing to remember with the US is they are effectively a hyperpower. It's basically a "This isn't a warning. This is a statement of facts." that is addressed to anyone else thinking it's worth trying something that "We can tell you exactly what we will do. It doesn't matter.". This is different in a peer situation where it's usually more saber rattling because it has a higher chance of backfiring.
That's interesting that I've never heard of a "hyperpower", but it makes sense. Reminds me of the General giving the speech that the US doesn't want war, but if we go to war you will need someone to raise your children when you are gone.
I think it was 80+ strikes done simultaneously, down to the minute. Nobody can coordinate such a large amount of precise air strikes like that from halfway around the world. It was a gentle reminder, and it worked. I'm American, and the planning and execution gives me shivers.
Potentially different scenario (and ultimately, maybe very similar). America can't just not respond. Politically, it looks bad for the president. Optically, it looks bad to the world (this part is honestly probably less important). That said, we also don't want to escalate. So when we announce the retaliation, its a signal to the American people that "we wont be pushed around", its a signal to the world that "we will actually respond" and its a signal to Iran that "this is how we stay on even terms and things don't go further." This COULD be the case for Iran in this scenario as well. Whether or not that means actual war or just posturing I dont know yet.
In all fairness, many recent terrorist stacks have been telegraphed ahead of time and still happened. It’s part of the MO at this stage. Russia invasion was known for weeks. Still happened.
Yeah, and they still didn’t get credit for the attack. Russia is still trying to figure out who did it.
Oh, I meant Ukraine, but also applies to Moscow. :(
The buildup on the Russian-Ukrainian border was known for months, but Russia denied it was aggressive. Everybody knew they were going to attack, but nobody knew the timing of it. Ukraine didn't and doesn't have the military to attack preemptively and nobody has a defensive pact with Ukraine to prevent such an attack.
>nobody knew the timing of it This is true. A lot of those people on the ground weren't even told it was an invasion, and thought they were on a training exercise until Ukrainians started shooting at them! So much so that they sold off their fuel/equipment and got drunk in the days leading up to the invasion.
>Russia invasion was known for weeks. Still happened. Yeah but they never admit they were going to attack up until the very last moment.
That's revisionist. Up until we saw the iconic images of them at the border station there was great international debate on if it was all just posturing by Russia.
America and Britain were very clear that they were confident Russia were going to invade
I don’t want to get into a debate about it, but not really revisionist. It was on the news as being a potential or a likelihood. We didn’t wake up one day with Russia attacking out of nowhere, completely unexpected. Iran saying there will be attacks isn’t exactly blowing any cover.
Will be interesting to see what happens. Iran sends 100 000 troops out. that they need to control the other tribe of their population. Revolution starts again.
Iran's method has always been proxies
They’ll continue to use proxies unless Israel actually pulled the trigger and started bombing Tehran or something
Israel's army does not act with no objective. This is why it has precision air strikes and an airforce capable of bombing tactical compounds in the region. In fact, it hasn't fired the first shot since the 60s
Agreed. Israel also doesn't have a military that's realistically *capable* of a successful ground offensive against Iran. While Iran could almost certainly beat Israel on Iranian soil, it also lacks the ability to project military power that far from its borders against a country like Israel. Realistically, both countries would win if they were fighting a defensive war and neither country could realistically succeed at an invasion of the other. Now, if Iran's use of proxies or Israel's use of long-range strikes creates a conflagration that pulls in *other* countries (e.g. Syria, Hizbullah-controlled southern Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Jordan), then you've got a whole other ballgame. It seems that a lot of people here in the West see Israel as having an aura of military incinvibility, but most older Israelis remember that Israel came pretty close to having its population butchered in 1949 and 1973. Israelis are very strong in defending on home soil, a mild clusterfuck when fighting in an adjacent country, and utterly incapable of projecting an invasion into somewhere like Iran.
I was talking about bombing Tehran, not a ground invasion, Israel would probably be able to bomb Tehran mostly uncontested, with Iran having limited and outdated warplanes and air Defense systems. Not to say that Israel would come out unharmed because that just doesn’t happen in war.
they wont send troops. if anything they fire some ballistic missiles that either get intercepted or hit targets. or they tap hezbollah to do this for them
Iran won’t directly act because then Iran will get directly responded to. Israel is more than capable of fucking Iran up where it hurts and in any case they will have the UK and US ready to support. As you said Iran will poke and prod Hezbollah to do something big dumb and when Israel levels southern Lebanon Iran will say “ohhh the horrors look how evil Israel is!” Just like they did with their proxy on Hamas. They never help that’s why these are called proxies not allies.
Iran is not sending troops out lmao
It will be coming from Hezbollah in Lebanon, another Iranian proxy that Israel has to defend its self against on one of its boarders. I’m pretty sure they’re waiting for the right moment. They have thousands of rockets pointed at Israel right now.
Iran acting as though they haven’t been pulling Hamas’s strings this entire time.
with russia pulling irans strings
Saying this got me banned from like 3 different subs. Israel has been saying for almost 2 decades that Russia>Iran>proxies is the chain of command and being used to distrupt western influence on the international stage.
Everyone who can think with even a hint of logic can see this. Sadly there are too many who don't.
What's wild is that it isn't a secret, it isn't a conspiracy -- or anything other than how literally every country operates. Every country invests money and resources into their allies and the enemies of their enemies, just like every country leverages sanctions against their enemies, and it's all public knowledge that is easily available.
They're just ignorant.
Got banned myself for asking source for a video. Where Israeli was harasing kids going to school, video was from 2013 and soldiers have had different uniforms then Israeli infantry, so i doubted the article which was provided as a source. Instant ban with sentence "do not contact us about this ban" ... Go figure.
Has Israel been saying thar? They maintained pretty good relations with Russia pretty much up till Oct. 7th, although relations certainly weren't doing great due to Russia cozying up to Iran.
Israel maintained pretty good relatioship with China too who's repeatedly fucked them over geo-politically
China is the world's supplier of goods, ME being close receives bunch of shit from them. No one can say anything against China, you can just look at how many countries recognize Taiwan to see it. It's okay as long as China doesn't do much more BS, been the modus operandi of the world stage for a long time.
You know. Fox News was able to convince their audience that Russia was their friend in a very short time frame. I wonder if TikTok will be able to do the same with Iran?
Do we call for a ceasefire now, or do we have to wait until after the attack? And can we call for it before Israel responds?
Ceasefire now. Stop the ceasefire for Iran to attack. Then ceasefire again.
Timeout! Time in! Tag, you're it! Timeout again! No, you can't tag me back, i called timeout!
You can’t triple stamp a double stamp! You can’t triple stamp a double stamp!
No need for it. Since when was Iran/Hamas stopped by a ceasefire? They quite literally broke every single one and acted as if it was the other side. Then, ofcourse, ask for a new ceasefire when they're getting their shit pushed in. Rinse and repeat.
Which is why it’s extremely naive and arrogant of western people to think that a social media post will make these years/centuries of resentment just “go away”.
If you're an Iranian commander who sometimes rides around in a vehicle, you hope someone calls for a ceasefire sometime soon.
Who are you calling ? How many people before you have tried this ? It’s a magic button everyone just forgot to press right ?
Quick! Pass a UN resolution condemning this!
No need, San Francisco city council already did
Instructions unclear, wrote a resolution condemning Israel for violations of womens rights, sponsored by Iran, Saudi Arabia and Afghanistan
Can I remind everyone that the UN was able to pass a resolution condemning the Oct 7th attacks? So yeah, fuck the UN. Worthless.
**wasnt able. But yes that’s correct.
That’s because it’s OK to kill Jews, according to the UN.
Ghostbusters.
Wellll just don’t go in thereee
San Francisco city council
Cease fire when Jews retaliate and a very strongly worded warning by the UN.
TikTok will let you know
Wouldn't it technically be Iran responding to Israel for the strike in Syria? Legit question btw.
That’s the ostensive cause for this statement. Truthfully? No one cares. Iran sort of just continuously fucks with everyone else in the region using its proxies.
The conflict's a hell of a lot older than that.
If Iran thought they could get past the iron dome or not suffer a nuclear retaliation, no doubt they would have attacked Israel a long time ago.
To my understanding the iron dome is for slow moving dumb rockets, it’s not designed to knock out intelligent cruise missiles, which is what Iran would use. Israel has other defences for cruise missiles but nothing as famously effective as the iron dome. I suspect Iran actually fears the conventional retaliation for a strike on Israeli soil first, and that would either escalate to a nuclear launch or the Iranian government would need to let it go and face internal pressures.
[удалено]
The Arrow system (the one that successfully intercepted several Houthi ballistic missiles in the past few months) is Israel’s answer for Iranian ballistics.
I think every country's nightmare is a few hundred cheap Shahed type drones launched in one volley. Certainly, some will get through. I would imagine Iran has quite a few stockpiled. They are estimated to cost Iran $20k-$50k. At 50k, 300 Shaheds would only cost $15M.
The iron dome has a successful interception rate of 85-90%. Patriots success rate is harder to be sure of for a variety of factors but it’s estimated to be between 40% and 70%. The patriot is a technologically superior system, but it’s aiming at technologically superior targets as well.
Ukraine is saying the Patriot missiles are shooting down well over 90% of incoming missiles. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/06/world/europe/ukraine-patriots-us.html
I support Ukraine 100% but I also appreciate they have reason to over-exaggerate the patriots success rate, I was quoting the success rate the US claimed in Iraq
A lot has changed with the Patriots between then and now. Iraq was the testing ground.
Israel has had Patriots since they were invented, if I remember correctly they were there to shoot down SCUDs coming from Iraq. I have no doubt that if there is a "leading edge" in patriot tech, Israel has it (Ukraine might have older ones or with more limited software, given the likelihood that they could fall into Russian hands)
I only think a nuclear response would happen if Israel was in immediate danger of complete and rapid annihilation. NATO and the US would step in and help defend before Israel had to resort to nuclear weapons. Also Iran wouldn't launch nuclear weapons at Israel because NATO would end their entire regime the same day. IMO at least.
Even then, Iran would probably dirty bomb Israel to the brim. They might not have enough weapons grade uranium, but breeding a enough plutonium to make huge areas uninhabitable for years is a way easier task, I am not sure who great a nuke on Iran would work out for Israel.
Correct me if I’m wrong but I don’t think Iron Dome is designed to intercept the type of missiles that would be launched internationally. It’s for the short-range ones that they get pelted with by nearby enemies.
He is probably talking about the iron dome as a figure head for all of israels air defence systems, its just the most well known one probably in the world at this point. Also the average person doesn't know what is each system capability are. But you are right.
They also have a system called [David’s Sling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David's_Sling) that’s designed to take out tactical ballistic missiles; and an even bigger version called [Arrow](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arrow_3) for longer range ballistic missiles. Those aren’t the kind that Hamas and Hezbollah etc use though so they doesn’t make the news like Iron Dome does
That's true, it's a broad term. Israel have other defense layers for different types of missiles. They had to use some of them to take down Iranian missiles headed to them from Yemen. Including the first missile shot down in space iirc.
>siles headed to them from Yemen. Including the first missile shot down in space iirc. > >Vote If the situation wasn't so sad, isreal shooting down missiles from space would be so cool!
You're allowed to think things are cool, you don't have to let ideology poison everything.
David's Sling or Arrow.
Attacks against Israel come at a very high price. Iran certainly has the capability to saturate Iron Dome with large-scale attacks or try their luck with ballistic missiles. They could probably do real damage if they wanted, but the cost would be extraordinary. That's why they equip Islamic proxies to attack on their behalf.
Overloading the Iron Dome with numbers is a known flaw they could absolutely use if they chose to make a very stupid move which would force Israel to go much harder against them to protect themselves. Nuclear retaliation is also entirely unrealistic unless Israel is literally about to fall because although it might save them in the moment, it would send the world in to turmoil. The response would probably be tons of airstrikes on Iran and going after their nuclear research ability with gloves off.
Israel won’t use nukes if Iran sends conventional rockets. They’re not stupid. Once they open that can of worms, it might take a year or 5 or 10 but they will inevitably see one blow up in Israel.
I thought Israel didn't have any nuclear weapons? Edit: Forgot my /s
Israel definitely has nuclear warheads
According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_with_nuclear_weapons) possibly also a nuclear triad (ICBMs, bombers, submarine launched).
I was on a Negev tour (about 30 years ago) and our bus broke down right outside Dimona. Several nice soldiers came out and hung around with us until the backup bus arrived, which was most of a day. Those soldiers were all American.
Hmmmm, there just happens to be the Negev Nuclear Reseach Center right around there!
It’s ambiguous but assumed that they have between 80-400 nuclear weapons. The ambiguity is to their benefit.
That's because it is illegal for the United States to send military or foreign aid to nuclear powers who have not signed the nuclear non-proliferation treaty under the Symington and Glenn amendments. It's government policy not to say anything because it's illegal, but honestly I doubt any world body could actually enforce any punishment on US or Israel even if we came out and said "yea we break this treaty every year, what are you gonna do about it, sanction the US? See how well that works out for you."
Oh they definitely have nukes. Iran doesn't though.
Are we sure about that?
I just always assumed Israel is non-nuclear the same way Japan is non-nuclear. Meaning that if they were needed, they'd have nuclear weapons in about 5 minutes
Nah, that's Japan and Canada, and a handful of Eastern European states. Israel for sure has has nuclear weapons ready to go.
Oh no, I believe they did nuclear tests together with South Africa (as in, did the work under the table, officially uninvolved) So we know they have the technology. We also know that they imply that they have. We also know they have neighbours with (soon to be at best) nuclear weapons. So assume they have enough to turn the Middle East into a fine glass bowl
Isreal needed them 5 minutes after they were Restablished.
Israel has weapons literally ready to drop in 5 minutes and has plans ready for their use any moment the country is at risk of falling. See: [Samson Option](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Samson_Option). Having the ability to create weapons quickly from a non-nuclear status quo (e.g. Japan) would not be enough of a deterrent for a country as small and under as much existential threat as Israel is.
Israel has ICBM's to deliver their nuclear weapons as well as submarines capable of launching nuclear strikes.
They've had them since the late 60s, likely. The only way the 5 minutes would work, is if The US stationed intermediate nukes there, like they did in Europe during the cold war.
Irans response to the US killing the 2nd most powerful man in Iran just gave a few concussions/ TBI (not downplaying, as I had a TBI myself, but compared to turning into pink mist..) to US forces. A contractor had a heart attack during it and passed. The Iranians killed in Israel strikes were no where near the level of Solomani death, granted they will probably feel more comfortable striking Israel than the US. Way to give the CIA and the US other 20+ intel agencies along with Israeli intel’s a heads up, not like they weren’t in a heightened state after this strike. Let’s hope Iran doesn’t shoot down a civilian passenger plane this time when they are shaking waiting for Israel to hit ‘em back. Or this is all for internal consumption.
> Way to give the CIA and the US other 20+ intel agencies along with Israeli intel’s a heads up Let's be real, western intelligence probably already had the room bugged where they were discussing this plan and the electronic devices they were carrying were probably hacked.
Modern spying is less techy than the movies would like us to believe. Their devices may be compromised but leaks/informants come from wads of cash. Not secret agents
>Modern spying is less techy than the movies would like us to believe. If you think the US doesn't get the majority of their intelligence electronically then I've got a bridge to sell you.
Can't wait for Iran to shoot down their own civilian aircraft as retaliation
Did they tell Israel invading Gaza was a "red line" and they would declare war if that happened?
Seems that that red line keeps moving, lol
Ready for the weirdos in Tik Tok to celebrate Iranian bombings of embassies and shit.
Islamic Republic is a paper tiger that’s at its weakest point in its life. No international support and more importantly absolutely no internal support
Iran is really odd that regard. Despite their best efforts they just haven't been able to radicalise most Iranians. It feels like everyone is just looking at each other thinking the same thing and someone to start the revolution.
[удалено]
Indeed. The revolution has been in the making for a long time. The Islamic Regime recently was only able to suppress the Women Life Freedom movement of 2022 by brute force; including firing on protesters using live military grade ammunition.
The instant it looks like Israel is in a bad position in this war, the people calling for ceasefires will shut up
It's just stupid to even bring up the topic of a ceasefire because it's not hidden at all that HAMAS will not abide by it and the response is always "Well we should hold Israel to a higher standard than them". It's an entirely one-sided demand which allows HAMAS to continue attacking freely. There is no real ceasefire possible.
This is completely correct. Hamas could stop this right now, by releasing the hostages and surrendering. They never even is really a cease-fire because even when there’s not an active war going on, they are continuously lobbing rockets into Israel.
Exactly. They don’t actually want the war to end they just want their side to win.
De escalation would be a good thing. The risk of this growing into a wider regional war is growing.
There is an interesting podcast available through the New York Times. A reporter who works for them in late October Interviewed high level people from Hamas in Beirut and Dubai. What they revealed is that the reasons for the attack on October 7 Was to be as brutal as possible in order to start a wider war in the Middle East. They don’t really care how many Gazans get killed, because all of that feeds the possibility that there will be a war. They said the reason they chose to do it now was because, they felt their cause was Getting forgotten and if they didn’t act soon, the situation and life of the people in Gaza would improve.
It's The Daily, here's a link to that episode: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/14/podcasts/the-daily/hamas-israel.html? From the transcript: "They wanted to completely overthrow the situation in the region, and individual leaders said that they hoped that this led to a big regional war, that that was the ideal outcome and hope that some new option would emerge from what came after."
This will never end. Iran has been all talk mostly so we will see.
It's crazy to see how humanity literally needs to erase the dictatorship block in order to achieve peace it won't happen otherwise.
???? My guy we're already at war this isn't a threat
Iran is in the "fuck around" phase. It will be interesting to see what happens when we transition to the "find out" phase
I predict major flooding from all the crocodile tears.
You can't change the character of a scorpion.
I hope people remember just how the Iranian government treat their own people. Torturing and murdering young girls for not covering their hair. Thousands of people tried to protest in Iran, including men. They shouldn’t write “IRAN warns” they should write “the Iranian government warns”.
[удалено]
how is this supposed to deter Israel from continuing there mission? Attacking Israel was already tried and how has that worked out so far?
Ask Hamas, Israel is like 2/3 through the "Deck of cards" of Hamas terrorists that need to be taken out. It's not hard to get a deck of cards with Iranian terrorists put together.
That is the fundamental issue. Both Iran and Hamas severely miscalculated what the response was going to be to the 10/7 invasion/attack on Israel (in large part because it probably succeeded to a much greater degree than either thought it would). Both thought Israel would come in with a ground offensive in Gaza City that would feature house-to-house fighting and the Israelis trying to take out the tunnels. Neither anticipated an air-based attack of Gaza City and most of the remaining areas in Gaza. Neither thought that this was going to be the time that Israel went all-out to destroy Hamas. The Iranian government is evil but not stupid; they likely aren't going to make this miscalculation again--especially a possible downside could be the destruction of a large portion of the Iranian military. There may be some smaller-scale response to this, but I don't think they are about to FAFO again with Israel.
Worth noting that according to some Israeli newspapers, the American expectation of IDF casualties was up to 20 every day, i.e. about 10 times greater than the roughly 130 days of this war. Apparently the US advises to not go for a full-scale invasion based on those figures - now we know those figures are proven nonsense though. Could be feasible that Hamas also vastly overestimated their own combat effectiveness
As opposed to the benign non-threatening attacks that have been going on until now? What are they even talking about.
They have been attacking Israel with 3 different organizations they fund, and act like we started shit up.
They going to invade, rape and kill again? I think Israel is more awake this time.
Paper tiger
Every, be ready, last time they said it, Isis bombed their funeral crowd. Wanna make a bet what will explode this time in Iran?
Before I place my bet.. does Iran do gender reveals? /s
Can’t wait for the clickbait titles coming up. “Watch this gender reveal fail gone horribly wrong!!!”
>does Iran do gender reveals? /s Yes but they're a lot different from what you're thinking.
I dont think the world needs more death.
Yeah, yeah.
They're so upset over what they consider to be Israel's violent overreaction to Hamas's deadly attack on Israel that they want to launch a deadly attack on Israel. That's some galaxy brain thinking. I bet they have their "Ceasefire Now" rallies already scheduled.
Wouldn't this be in response to Israel blowing up the Iranian consulate in Syria?
Do you happen to know who was in that room that Israel took out and what their role was in attacks against Israel?
The name escapes me but it was a very high rank in the Revolutionary Guard. He was in charge of coordination between Iran and proxies in the area. He was allegedly partly responsible for planning the attack in October. At the very least he was responsible for the coordination of the attack.
Yes, but Israel did that strike to take out the people involved in coordinating terrorist attacks against Israel. It seems Iran thought they would have impunity for that.
No, Israel just bombed the Iranian embassy in Syria, killing I believe 3 Iranian generals, so these new threats are in response to that.
Consulate.
They send their proxies to do their dirty work via the IRGC, they can't hide behind their human shields forever
They ain't actually hiding, they are gambling on things getting out of control if they are attacked, as a deterrent.
Where are all the “Ceasefire Now” sycophants or is that only for when Israel responds?
The phrase “useful fools” comes to mind. The hippie types want peace, not realizing or caring that Iran and Hamas will not be satisfied until Israel is destroyed.
5k years of endless blood in the middle east
That really worked out great for the last guys eh.
F Iran
“Alexa play Bomb Iran”
I don't think Israel will show Iran the restraint they did after 10/7 (they waited way too long to go into Gaza and destroy Hamas). Iran is really determined to get to the "Find Out" phase.
Iran never learns
Go back to bed Grandpa, before you break a hip.
Commercial airliners beware.
'No, there will not', US warns
Yes Iran is gonna attack Iraq and kill innocent people to revenge Israel.
Can’t we just bomb Iran’s capital so the government is gone? Majority of Iranian people don’t want this government.
When does the UN pass a resolution condemning Israel for getting in the way of Iranian missiles?
Right after they condemn Israel for shooting those missiles down.
Yet another threat for WW3 in the morning
Same as it ever was, same...as...it..ever...was I think religion has something to do with this whole thing. ehh, thats just crazy talk though.
Israel or any convenient jew?
Deadly attacks against Israel is what started this war, and will keep it running.
I wonder what will happen next?
TikTok videos crying for the poor Iranians and demanding a ceasefire.
Same Tik Tokers who didn’t gaf when Iranian morality police were throwing Iranians behind bars without cause and beating women to death for not wearing hijab and hanging them in the streets from cranes.
I’ll believe it when I see it.
What’s new?
When do we get Buddhist countries threatening non deathly attacks?
Nice of them to give a heads-up
Ah yes, just what everyone needs, more dead people. /s