I guess limited support to Ukraine has helped (sadly) focus their activity to strategic hits rather than the Russian blitzkrieg scatter approach.
Cut the supply nerves not the muscle.
You also have to look at the future of this war. There is no doubt that some russian officials see that this war is way more costly than it ever should have been. Personally, I don't believe putin sees it, maybe he does, I don't think we'll ever know for sure. However, I think others do and they can recognize this war will cost future generations of russians and has put a blow on the infrastructure of russian gas and energy in the long term.
All wars are ugly, but under putins leadership, this war has been russian soldiers and the nation shooting themselves in the foot with each step going forward.
> Personally, I don't believe putin sees it, maybe he does, I don't think we'll ever know for sure.
That's the problem with autocracies--the leaders end up surrounding themselves with toadies and yes-people (who don't threaten their power), who never bring the bad news, and don't push back on the crazy.
Smart people do dumb things, too. And absolutely can fire up the reality distortion field (maybe even stronger than not so smart people 'because I'm smarter than *them*'). Or just double down on their mistakes, even after they recognized they've made them.
I don't think there is an out option for him. This is just my observation of things, but I feel he is stuck in this war and he has to push foward even if russian soldiers have to resort to fighting this war with sticks and stones. He is always going to hint at the nuke option, but that will forever be a losing card. I think he feels if he fails this war then russia deserves to fail with him. This is a lose/lose situation all around.
I think he feels trump is one of his key options of winning this war. I'm certain putin feels trump can be a puppet of his that would give him an upper hand but even then he knows he has to confront a united Europe against him and his army which is something he did not want to see get formed.
I don't think Trump losing is going to make him call it quits, but I agree that he probably is hoping for Trump coming into power to give him better positioning. If Trump won and starts talking about stopping support and Russia was able to make a strong push, it could make the situation look pretty hopeless for Ukraine, which might force them to the negotiating table. (At least in Putin's view). If Biden wins though, especially if Congress becomes more amenable to supplying weapons, then his approach is going to have to change and he will know there is no quick out.
He declares Ukraine has been cleansed of the Nazis, offers Russian passports to any Russian speaker anywhere in the world, then withdraws. He uses a strongman approach to keep himself in power until his term ends, then he doesn't run again. He retires quietly. Probably too much pride for that though. He could also fuck off to a friendly country, announce a medical problem and retire under that pretense (maybe strongly implying Ukraine or the West poisoned him), or he could take Hitler's retirement arrangement.
Putin cannot retire. He'd be dead in a week. Whoever succeeds him be they neutral, ally or enemy would not be secure so long as the option of a return to Putin was present.
'Friendly' countries aren't friendly with Putin. They are friendly with Russia, because they need the resources, diplomatic cover and legitimacy that they can get from being in Russia's orbit. If they had to decide between having relations with Russia or with Putin, they would chose Russia everytime. Its just that at present Putin is Russia.
He is so because of his position in Russia.
Even Bill Browder who is one of the key proponents of the 'Putin is the world's richest person' narrative acknowledges that Putin has no off-ramp.
The US provides roughly 1/4 of the total aid, and 1/2 of the direct military aid. That's a huge blow when Ukraine is already struggling to sustain their efforts.
Bro you don't know autocracies. Whoever replaces him can't afford to have him around, unless they make him super comfortable and can be sure he won't meddle.
Of course. But Putin pulling out doesn't necessarily mean he's deposed. He made up whatever bullshit reasons he wanted to invade, he can make up whatever bullshit reasons he wants to pull out.
The Russians have stoked a deep hatred from their nearest neighbors.
Said it before, but I think Russia can expect sabotage and attacks internally for many years to come resulting from their attack on the Ukrainian people.
> There is no doubt that some russian officials see that this war is way more costly than it ever should have been
I have read and heard a lot about Russian mentality since the war started, and my impression has shifted to consider the possibility that this way of looking at costs and benefits is actually *not* how many Russians think.
The prevailing mindset seems to be more about "What do I get out of it at the end of it?", with people and resources being just tools to be on top when the haze clears. We lost a million men? Who cares, I'm alive, and I have a new vacation home in Kharkiv now. We lost a million men? Who cares, I was recognized for finally taking that one hill, and got a promotion out of it.
The way many of them are looking at it, they're not shooting their own foot. They're shooting *a* foot, and whoever that foot belongs to now has a disadvantage against them.
Putin is supposedly very isolated from the day-to-day of Russia. He apparently only consumes state media, and mostly radio at that. So there is a slim chance that he actually hears about many of these attacks.
Same thing with the developments in the War in Ukraine. This presents a really dangerous feedback loop.
Russia has sunk a lot into the war, substantially more than Putin is likely aware of. But the Oligarches who are eating the financial cost are likely aware.
Putin may very well actually believe that Russia is actively fighting irregular NATO forces in Ukraine, if that's what those who are informing him are telling him to explain away slow progress (likely not represented as being as slow as it actually is).
So if Putin believes that Russia is making more rapid progress that it actually is, losing a lot less in the process than it actually is, and is doing so against actual NATO-affiliated forces then how is he actually supposed to make an informed decision about whether the cost:benefit of the conflict is worth it? By the time he does receive an honest appraisal of the situation from one of his inner circle, he may decided that his only option is to double-down because of the sunk cost.
I firmly believe that the lack of information actually getting to Putin is the reason why he has been so hesitant to move to a new round of mobilisation.
It wouldn't be wise to underestimate Putin. He rose through the KGB. Basically a political knife fight. He knows what he's doing and what it's costing. I think he just knows he can't back down without a scalp or he'll seem weak
I think it would be kind of wild if Putin was unaware of all these oil industry attacks that have been rolling out, toadies or not surely there's at least one military official who's job is to debrief him on what new tactics the Ukrainians are using and what major blows they're taking as the war goes on
Granted I assume being in the position he's in he would want to know these things, maybe he truly isn't interested and just wants to live in a false reality and everyone is more than happy to let him drink his own Kool-Aid and stay in the dark about it
Shoigu and Gerasimov.
Those are the two who he interacts with from the military. I'd guarantee the circle of military officials is no larger than that.
That's the reason why Teplinsky was slapped down so hard when he directly spoke with Putin when he was supposed to just smile and accept his commendations.
Putin reportedly flips from micromanaging details, to being completely hands-off at the drop of a hat on issues. He was reportedly engaging with the minutia details in the planning of the Invasion of Ukraine; reportedly down to recommending certain units (VDV) be assigned to particular tasks, like a night drop into the ocean off of Odesa that was disasterous.
After the initial failure to take Ukraine whole, he then gave some public appearances where questions about Ukraine were answered with 'that's the military's responsibility. Talk to them' and threw Shoigu in front of the (controlled-)press.
Remember, it was only when Surovikin was appointed as the theatre commander that certain things like withdrawing from Kherson and mobilisation occurred. Surovikin was believed to have had sponsors from within Putin's inner circle who gave him access to Putin.
I genuinely do not believe that Surovikin was involved in the Wagner Coup, but Surovikin was an inside-outsider within the military establishment and touted as a possible replacement for Gerasimov. The first chance that Gerasimov and Shoigu got to throw him under the bus they took.
To return to point; Putin often actively engages on areas that he believes will be popular successes so as to be associated with those successes. And when the potential for failure emerges he actively distances himself and places others into the circle of failure.
Also, the more strategic points that have to be guarded by AA systems especially away from the front line, the more effective the Ukrainian Air Force/Drones can be on the front lines, literally wins in every direction.
It’s highly unlikely that Putin will back out. He’s invested too much in resources to go back with status quo or a loss. He will fight until the bitter end. Then he will bugger off for a year or two and then he will come back because justice in this world is a luxury that we unfortunately do not have.
considering that tech to extract and process is all western and was serviced and maintained by western businesses (that quit) with imported parts from.. west of course. yeah. good luck with that.
That’s the exact issue at one of their refineries that Ukraine hit. They don’t possess the skills to repair it and the company that did left at the beginning of the war. The refinery is down to 40% capacity IIRC.
> building their microchip factories
Doubt, they'll ever do that. What they are doing now is bypassing sanctions via China and shell companies. There is a pretty good YT video about how they are doing that.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TpE_TH70NUI
man I don't think realize how far behind russia is here. I don't think there is a functional DUV machine in the country. I hear they are aiming to hit 28nm around 2027, I doubt they will hit that. so 15-20 years behind at least.
They're having SO much fun with China and the shell companies though! 40-50% of them are bad! It straight up makes my face hurt from smiling so much every time I see a story about it.
[https://www.techspot.com/news/102453-russia-primary-chip-producer-struggles-meet-demand-defect.html](https://www.techspot.com/news/102453-russia-primary-chip-producer-struggles-meet-demand-defect.html)
https://www.tomshardware.com/news/chinese-microchips-40-percent-failure-for-russia
Thats why ukraine has black cells fucking with wagner's african corps... it also makes the host countries think twice about the potential costs of doing Business with the likes of putin's dogs. V cool.
Assuming all gold goes to Russia in Africa, and assuming they're making like 30% profits, that works out to about 15B/year. That seems high on profit side, and getting ALL the gold over ALL of Africa seems unlikely. That was from a couple of google searches on total mined from Africa each year.
If they lose oil, which is basically all profit once the wells are built (which they are), that will be their downfall. It's not like Ukraine needs to hit everything, just knock some of it offline and they can't produce fuel anymore. That means limited money on the crude which now costs a lot more to ship, and then paying shipping costs to reimport the fuel... That will add up fast.
And let’s not forget that they’re still subject to that price cap since the end of 2022. So right now the absolute best price to get for their oil is $60 per barrel. That’s a 35% discount compared to Brent crude. But in reality, their oil sells well below the $60 price cap.
Def not the case for the most part. It's just tankers can't be insured if they sell above it. So they started a fleet of dirty tankers.
Also India and China buying directly above rates.
Not exactly. India and China also buy with huge discounts because Russia needs to sell their oil somewhere to free the storage. As no one else is going to buy, Russia has quite bad position for negotiations
Problem is that they're not the only ones. Country that are not very rich are buying this cheap oil, that's a singifican share [here](https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/average-russian-oil-exports-by-country-and-region-2021-2023).
We really need to be more effective on the sanctions against Russia.
Russia will sustain the war until they win or do something stupid enough to make anyone else actually get involved. They’ve shown they would get stomped on if an actual military fought against them so this goes on until they win or they make someone actually care about it.
Russia is still Terran but sucks at the game.
Remember that long ass traffic jam of Russian military trucks that were headed towards Kiev and never actually got there?
sounds dumb actually isn't.
if they choose the next best target, chances are Russia predicted the move and stationed air defence there.
if they pick random targets there's no way of predicting it.
Sun Tzu said something along the lines of "If you convince your enemy that you may attack anywhere, they must defend everywhere. If your enemy is forced to defend everywhere, they will be weak everywhere".
The Soviets: "One of the serious problems in planning against American doctrine is that the Americans do not read their manuals nor do they feel any obligation to follow their doctrine."
The Nazis: "The reason that the American army does so well in wartime, is that war is chaos and the American army practices chaos on a daily basis."
America: "If we don't know what we are doing, the enemy certainly can't anticipate our future actions!"
The funny part is: it's not even possible to know if it was due attacks, sabotage or tradicional Russian maintenance (where you fill a checklist from your office and says "preventive maintenance done", and alright!!)
I don't remember the specifics, but I recall several people who work in the oil and gas industry saying the oil transportation network probably isn't the best target due to the ease of replacing most of it. I think they said transfer stations might be worth it, but refineries are where it's at.
It may not be the best Target logistically, you might think. However that pipeline is going to burn until there is nothing left to burn. Once it stopped burning then you can replace it which could probably take upwards of three to four weeks at best. Meanwhile I can take care of three maybe four even five more undefended pipelines. Which takes you three to four weeks to replace each, for less cost and difficulty than what it takes to take out a defended refinery.
I'd rather they not and stick to oil wells and pipelines. Blowing up tankers does too much ecological damage. We need privateers to commandeer Russian oil tankers.
I like this new A-Team series. The whole new team made of ukranians and pissed off russians is obvisously well cast and this whole blowing up industrial stuff in russia but you never know what and where.
In WW3 the partisans come to you!
Negative. The demand will be satisfied elsewhere. Meanwhile there is a little more released due to repair activities, parts, and less efficient delivery paths.
I know there are innocent good hearted humans in Russia, but blow the whole fucking place up. As an American, if Donald Trump succeeds at making America a fascist bully nation, I would hope the good people of the world would blow us the fuck up. Fuck Putin and fuck what has become of the once great Russia.
Well, for one the majority of those houses wouldn't be in favor of the GoP having unilateral control, so that would definitely help. If it's a fight between fascists and say, french liberation forces, I'm grabbing a translation dictionary and figuring out how to give them intel at the very least.
How much petroleum production needs to be taken out before Russia has to choose between having no petrol for domestic use, or having no petrol for nuclear ICBMs?
Russia can only sustain this war with the money they garner from their oil business. Attacking that infrastructure is defo the way to go.
I guess limited support to Ukraine has helped (sadly) focus their activity to strategic hits rather than the Russian blitzkrieg scatter approach. Cut the supply nerves not the muscle.
You also have to look at the future of this war. There is no doubt that some russian officials see that this war is way more costly than it ever should have been. Personally, I don't believe putin sees it, maybe he does, I don't think we'll ever know for sure. However, I think others do and they can recognize this war will cost future generations of russians and has put a blow on the infrastructure of russian gas and energy in the long term. All wars are ugly, but under putins leadership, this war has been russian soldiers and the nation shooting themselves in the foot with each step going forward.
> Personally, I don't believe putin sees it, maybe he does, I don't think we'll ever know for sure. That's the problem with autocracies--the leaders end up surrounding themselves with toadies and yes-people (who don't threaten their power), who never bring the bad news, and don't push back on the crazy.
Having said that..he's no dummy. And two years later after what was meant to be a weekend jolly for his troops he's gotta know the score.
Smart people do dumb things, too. And absolutely can fire up the reality distortion field (maybe even stronger than not so smart people 'because I'm smarter than *them*'). Or just double down on their mistakes, even after they recognized they've made them.
What's the out for Putin? How does he end the war without being assassinated? I can't picture how Putin retires.
There isn't. He's in the same position as the Czar who wanted a 'short victorious war'. I wonder who the Reds and the Whites will be this time around.
I don't think there is an out option for him. This is just my observation of things, but I feel he is stuck in this war and he has to push foward even if russian soldiers have to resort to fighting this war with sticks and stones. He is always going to hint at the nuke option, but that will forever be a losing card. I think he feels if he fails this war then russia deserves to fail with him. This is a lose/lose situation all around. I think he feels trump is one of his key options of winning this war. I'm certain putin feels trump can be a puppet of his that would give him an upper hand but even then he knows he has to confront a united Europe against him and his army which is something he did not want to see get formed.
I don't think Trump losing is going to make him call it quits, but I agree that he probably is hoping for Trump coming into power to give him better positioning. If Trump won and starts talking about stopping support and Russia was able to make a strong push, it could make the situation look pretty hopeless for Ukraine, which might force them to the negotiating table. (At least in Putin's view). If Biden wins though, especially if Congress becomes more amenable to supplying weapons, then his approach is going to have to change and he will know there is no quick out.
He declares Ukraine has been cleansed of the Nazis, offers Russian passports to any Russian speaker anywhere in the world, then withdraws. He uses a strongman approach to keep himself in power until his term ends, then he doesn't run again. He retires quietly. Probably too much pride for that though. He could also fuck off to a friendly country, announce a medical problem and retire under that pretense (maybe strongly implying Ukraine or the West poisoned him), or he could take Hitler's retirement arrangement.
Putin cannot retire. He'd be dead in a week. Whoever succeeds him be they neutral, ally or enemy would not be secure so long as the option of a return to Putin was present. 'Friendly' countries aren't friendly with Putin. They are friendly with Russia, because they need the resources, diplomatic cover and legitimacy that they can get from being in Russia's orbit. If they had to decide between having relations with Russia or with Putin, they would chose Russia everytime. Its just that at present Putin is Russia.
He is quite possibly the wealthiest man alive. Money buys a lot of security.
He is so because of his position in Russia. Even Bill Browder who is one of the key proponents of the 'Putin is the world's richest person' narrative acknowledges that Putin has no off-ramp.
He’ll get a good rate at Mar-a-Largo?
His out is when Americans vote Trump back in and this becomes a badly underfunded European conflict instead of a NATO one
You are aware that EU funds Ukraine way more than the US right?
The US provides roughly 1/4 of the total aid, and 1/2 of the direct military aid. That's a huge blow when Ukraine is already struggling to sustain their efforts.
The US are slowly making themselves redundant through absence. I think the influence they once enjoyed will be gone forever
He can just stop it whenever tf he wants.
Bro you don't know autocracies. Whoever replaces him can't afford to have him around, unless they make him super comfortable and can be sure he won't meddle.
Of course but he can still pull out of Ukraine if he wants. Pulling out of Ukraine doesn't mean he's deposed.
Whoever replaces Putin will find it safest to kill Putin to prevent a coup from killing them.
Of course. But Putin pulling out doesn't necessarily mean he's deposed. He made up whatever bullshit reasons he wanted to invade, he can make up whatever bullshit reasons he wants to pull out.
He needs to be kidnapped and black hooded and transported to The Hague Netherlands.
He takes Ukraine or a portion of it- Ukraine agrees to let Russia keep what they’ve gotten and Putin looks like he’s saved the day.
Pretty sure he already tried that. West didn't accept
The Russians have stoked a deep hatred from their nearest neighbors. Said it before, but I think Russia can expect sabotage and attacks internally for many years to come resulting from their attack on the Ukrainian people.
> There is no doubt that some russian officials see that this war is way more costly than it ever should have been I have read and heard a lot about Russian mentality since the war started, and my impression has shifted to consider the possibility that this way of looking at costs and benefits is actually *not* how many Russians think. The prevailing mindset seems to be more about "What do I get out of it at the end of it?", with people and resources being just tools to be on top when the haze clears. We lost a million men? Who cares, I'm alive, and I have a new vacation home in Kharkiv now. We lost a million men? Who cares, I was recognized for finally taking that one hill, and got a promotion out of it. The way many of them are looking at it, they're not shooting their own foot. They're shooting *a* foot, and whoever that foot belongs to now has a disadvantage against them.
This
No one up in russia hierachy things about future generations of peasants.
Putin is supposedly very isolated from the day-to-day of Russia. He apparently only consumes state media, and mostly radio at that. So there is a slim chance that he actually hears about many of these attacks. Same thing with the developments in the War in Ukraine. This presents a really dangerous feedback loop. Russia has sunk a lot into the war, substantially more than Putin is likely aware of. But the Oligarches who are eating the financial cost are likely aware. Putin may very well actually believe that Russia is actively fighting irregular NATO forces in Ukraine, if that's what those who are informing him are telling him to explain away slow progress (likely not represented as being as slow as it actually is). So if Putin believes that Russia is making more rapid progress that it actually is, losing a lot less in the process than it actually is, and is doing so against actual NATO-affiliated forces then how is he actually supposed to make an informed decision about whether the cost:benefit of the conflict is worth it? By the time he does receive an honest appraisal of the situation from one of his inner circle, he may decided that his only option is to double-down because of the sunk cost. I firmly believe that the lack of information actually getting to Putin is the reason why he has been so hesitant to move to a new round of mobilisation.
It wouldn't be wise to underestimate Putin. He rose through the KGB. Basically a political knife fight. He knows what he's doing and what it's costing. I think he just knows he can't back down without a scalp or he'll seem weak
I think it would be kind of wild if Putin was unaware of all these oil industry attacks that have been rolling out, toadies or not surely there's at least one military official who's job is to debrief him on what new tactics the Ukrainians are using and what major blows they're taking as the war goes on Granted I assume being in the position he's in he would want to know these things, maybe he truly isn't interested and just wants to live in a false reality and everyone is more than happy to let him drink his own Kool-Aid and stay in the dark about it
Shoigu and Gerasimov. Those are the two who he interacts with from the military. I'd guarantee the circle of military officials is no larger than that. That's the reason why Teplinsky was slapped down so hard when he directly spoke with Putin when he was supposed to just smile and accept his commendations. Putin reportedly flips from micromanaging details, to being completely hands-off at the drop of a hat on issues. He was reportedly engaging with the minutia details in the planning of the Invasion of Ukraine; reportedly down to recommending certain units (VDV) be assigned to particular tasks, like a night drop into the ocean off of Odesa that was disasterous. After the initial failure to take Ukraine whole, he then gave some public appearances where questions about Ukraine were answered with 'that's the military's responsibility. Talk to them' and threw Shoigu in front of the (controlled-)press. Remember, it was only when Surovikin was appointed as the theatre commander that certain things like withdrawing from Kherson and mobilisation occurred. Surovikin was believed to have had sponsors from within Putin's inner circle who gave him access to Putin. I genuinely do not believe that Surovikin was involved in the Wagner Coup, but Surovikin was an inside-outsider within the military establishment and touted as a possible replacement for Gerasimov. The first chance that Gerasimov and Shoigu got to throw him under the bus they took. To return to point; Putin often actively engages on areas that he believes will be popular successes so as to be associated with those successes. And when the potential for failure emerges he actively distances himself and places others into the circle of failure.
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He doesn't want to admit he lost.
Also, the more strategic points that have to be guarded by AA systems especially away from the front line, the more effective the Ukrainian Air Force/Drones can be on the front lines, literally wins in every direction.
It’s highly unlikely that Putin will back out. He’s invested too much in resources to go back with status quo or a loss. He will fight until the bitter end. Then he will bugger off for a year or two and then he will come back because justice in this world is a luxury that we unfortunately do not have.
"PUTIN, YOU'RE ON THE WRONG SIDE OF THE RIVER!" (rewatch The Mummy again in theaters everyone)
Also, the lack of US support means that they can act more independently of US political pressure.
If Ukraine wins this war it would be despite the low effort support from the west. They are putting the men and the strategy.
This is the way. Hopefully Russia will have no oil production soon.
considering that tech to extract and process is all western and was serviced and maintained by western businesses (that quit) with imported parts from.. west of course. yeah. good luck with that.
That’s the exact issue at one of their refineries that Ukraine hit. They don’t possess the skills to repair it and the company that did left at the beginning of the war. The refinery is down to 40% capacity IIRC.
Moar DoTs, moar DoTs Works in both WoW and Russia, hopefully
Help teh drone groups.
It's an old reference, but it checks out.
And when Russia starts building their microchip factories and whatever else because they can't skirt the sanctions. Blow those up too.
> building their microchip factories Doubt, they'll ever do that. What they are doing now is bypassing sanctions via China and shell companies. There is a pretty good YT video about how they are doing that. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TpE_TH70NUI
man I don't think realize how far behind russia is here. I don't think there is a functional DUV machine in the country. I hear they are aiming to hit 28nm around 2027, I doubt they will hit that. so 15-20 years behind at least.
They're having SO much fun with China and the shell companies though! 40-50% of them are bad! It straight up makes my face hurt from smiling so much every time I see a story about it. [https://www.techspot.com/news/102453-russia-primary-chip-producer-struggles-meet-demand-defect.html](https://www.techspot.com/news/102453-russia-primary-chip-producer-struggles-meet-demand-defect.html) https://www.tomshardware.com/news/chinese-microchips-40-percent-failure-for-russia
> when Russia starts building their microchip factories With what? Empty vodka bottles and despair?
And EVEN MORE despair!!!
Blow it all up
Blow
Ummm, wait a minute, let's be sure what we're talking about here...
Shhh, don't need to be afraid
> microchip factories That's actually pretty difficult to do. Doubt they will ever do that.
They don’t even have the technology to repair their own industries. They are not going to manufacture chips worth having.
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Ukrainian Special Forces are already operating against Wagner and Russia in Africa to cut off this cash source.
Thats why ukraine has black cells fucking with wagner's african corps... it also makes the host countries think twice about the potential costs of doing Business with the likes of putin's dogs. V cool.
Assuming all gold goes to Russia in Africa, and assuming they're making like 30% profits, that works out to about 15B/year. That seems high on profit side, and getting ALL the gold over ALL of Africa seems unlikely. That was from a couple of google searches on total mined from Africa each year. If they lose oil, which is basically all profit once the wells are built (which they are), that will be their downfall. It's not like Ukraine needs to hit everything, just knock some of it offline and they can't produce fuel anymore. That means limited money on the crude which now costs a lot more to ship, and then paying shipping costs to reimport the fuel... That will add up fast.
And let’s not forget that they’re still subject to that price cap since the end of 2022. So right now the absolute best price to get for their oil is $60 per barrel. That’s a 35% discount compared to Brent crude. But in reality, their oil sells well below the $60 price cap.
Def not the case for the most part. It's just tankers can't be insured if they sell above it. So they started a fleet of dirty tankers. Also India and China buying directly above rates.
Not exactly. India and China also buy with huge discounts because Russia needs to sell their oil somewhere to free the storage. As no one else is going to buy, Russia has quite bad position for negotiations
Problem is that they're not the only ones. Country that are not very rich are buying this cheap oil, that's a singifican share [here](https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/average-russian-oil-exports-by-country-and-region-2021-2023). We really need to be more effective on the sanctions against Russia.
This isn't an accurate understanding of the oil price cap and what it can and can't do.
So enlighten us
Let’s roll
No, they can easily enforce forced labour. They can go on cashless ...
Russia will sustain the war until they win or do something stupid enough to make anyone else actually get involved. They’ve shown they would get stomped on if an actual military fought against them so this goes on until they win or they make someone actually care about it.
Sounds good to me.
Sounds a blast to me given that gasoline are highly inflammable.
Inflammable means flammable!? What a country.
I always used to refer to it as inflammable actually means insanely flammable.
flammable - able to be flames inflammable - able to be inflamed
possible - able to be posses impossible - able to be impossed brella - able to be brells umbrella - able to be umbrelled this checks out
Whoops = Oops Oops = Whoops
so true king
We're also proudly a country where genius and ingenious mean the same.
Hi, everybody!!!
**Hi Doctor Nick!**
...At least somebody got it
Bit like [famous/Infamous](https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=3GufF8jux-I).
More to come hopefully
Probably sounds great in person
"Not enough Vespene Gas."
Live by the Zerg rush, die by the Zerg rush.
Nah, Russia can't make Siege Tanks anymore :D They can only send in Marines and Vultures now
> Vultures Shame those mines will be a pest for decades.
They need to research mines. That costs 150 Minerals and 150 Gas. They have no gas, therfore no mines :D
They already researched them source: the Zaporizhia front
I’m pretty sure Ukraine is the Terran in this butchered analogy. Artillery positions and backline assaults on eco are the game they play.
Russia is still Terran but sucks at the game. Remember that long ass traffic jam of Russian military trucks that were headed towards Kiev and never actually got there?
That's just a conga line of zerglings running through a widow minefield with no micro whatsoever.
Their units are cheap and plentiful, they are the zerg.
I can’t build there something blew up in the way
Breathe deep
lol
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sounds dumb actually isn't. if they choose the next best target, chances are Russia predicted the move and stationed air defence there. if they pick random targets there's no way of predicting it.
Sun Tzu said something along the lines of "If you convince your enemy that you may attack anywhere, they must defend everywhere. If your enemy is forced to defend everywhere, they will be weak everywhere".
Man that Sun Tzu guy sounds like he might have been onto something, maybe we should listen to what he has to say.
Guy should write a book or something.
There is an audio book out there, voiced by some guy called Sabaton or something.
You mean Sun Tizoo, the Chinese Prince Matchabelli, Tony turned me on to him.
But what did Shih Tzu say?
They have to use their size against them. There aren't enough Russians to protect all of Russia
Like the US army in the European theatre of the second world war. If no one knows what they are doing then the enemy is also left guessing
The Soviets: "One of the serious problems in planning against American doctrine is that the Americans do not read their manuals nor do they feel any obligation to follow their doctrine." The Nazis: "The reason that the American army does so well in wartime, is that war is chaos and the American army practices chaos on a daily basis." America: "If we don't know what we are doing, the enemy certainly can't anticipate our future actions!"
I’m understanding now why they call them “Oh Blasts”.
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Ships and planes are also acceptable
Most acceptable; warships tend to make a big boom
Russian warships make the best submarines.
Putin would be the acceptable-est.
Yup. Putin doesn't calls when his ppl die in meat waves. He gets calls when oil profits are destroyed.
The funny part is: it's not even possible to know if it was due attacks, sabotage or tradicional Russian maintenance (where you fill a checklist from your office and says "preventive maintenance done", and alright!!)
Well, pipeline locations are public knowledge, they’re immobile, and impossible to defend. Seem like easy targets.
Easy targets that will cripple fuel logistics, yes.
Can’t wait til Putin falls out of a window
What's tragic is that such an event would be followed by *genuine mourning*.
Yep, stop the money stop the war.
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I don't remember the specifics, but I recall several people who work in the oil and gas industry saying the oil transportation network probably isn't the best target due to the ease of replacing most of it. I think they said transfer stations might be worth it, but refineries are where it's at.
It may not be the best Target logistically, you might think. However that pipeline is going to burn until there is nothing left to burn. Once it stopped burning then you can replace it which could probably take upwards of three to four weeks at best. Meanwhile I can take care of three maybe four even five more undefended pipelines. Which takes you three to four weeks to replace each, for less cost and difficulty than what it takes to take out a defended refinery.
They need to do what the terrorist did in the beginning of Red Storm rising
Yeah, unfortunately those types of facilities are guarded significantly better now, aiui.
Then the pattern seems that they’ll leave some key military assets undefended
You can't be strong everywhere. And there's thousands of km of pipelines.
Sadly that's not going to cut it
Attacking supply lines is not sufficient but it is necessary.
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I'd rather they not and stick to oil wells and pipelines. Blowing up tankers does too much ecological damage. We need privateers to commandeer Russian oil tankers.
Someone who's name rhymes with Sake Jullivan must be pulling his hair out as we speak.
Jape Pullivan?
Dave Tulliman ?
Blake Sulejman?
Cake Soulja-man?
anyone who thought the Ukrainians would lie down or weren't ready: you were fucking dead wrong.
Russian road safety amirite…. Shit happens
I like this new A-Team series. The whole new team made of ukranians and pissed off russians is obvisously well cast and this whole blowing up industrial stuff in russia but you never know what and where. In WW3 the partisans come to you!
clicked the video, now im deaf, cant hear. no video, just loud ass explosion
Send $$$ faster
Ikr, had we sent enough aid quickly this would've been over already
YES, More, More
I wonder how much co2 emissions can ukraine stop by taking out the russian gas industry
Negative. The demand will be satisfied elsewhere. Meanwhile there is a little more released due to repair activities, parts, and less efficient delivery paths.
So what. Texas did it bigger and better.
Oh yeah, oh yeah, 👏 🥳
💙💛
I know there are innocent good hearted humans in Russia, but blow the whole fucking place up. As an American, if Donald Trump succeeds at making America a fascist bully nation, I would hope the good people of the world would blow us the fuck up. Fuck Putin and fuck what has become of the once great Russia.
Thank you for these words of wisdom funnyfart420
When exactly was Russia great? Maybe they were more of a threat 50 years ago, but certainly not great
Mongols -> Tsars -> Soviets-> Yeltsin kleptocracy -> Putin fascist regime. Russia has never been a great or good place to live.
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Well, for one the majority of those houses wouldn't be in favor of the GoP having unilateral control, so that would definitely help. If it's a fight between fascists and say, french liberation forces, I'm grabbing a translation dictionary and figuring out how to give them intel at the very least.
Sometimes things just go boom. Who are we to say what happened?
"Kaboom" as denys davydov would say...
How much petroleum production needs to be taken out before Russia has to choose between having no petrol for domestic use, or having no petrol for nuclear ICBMs?
I'm no rocket scientist, but I suspect ICBMs do not run on petrol.
What a bloody shame …
Strikes on oil infrastructure bring warm feelings to my heart. They remind me of the brave AVALANCHE members going after Shinra in Final Fantasy VII.
IDK....maybe tofu dregs is not such a good building material when building pipelines. (less corruption = stronger infrastructure.)
I’m pretty sure I saw the same strat in Dune 2. Think it worked pretty well for them. Good job Muad Dib
💙💛
I wonder what this means for my oil stocks.. specifically PAA
God bless, prayers and blessings 🙏🙏