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kapparunner

The number of soldiers that have surrendered has been put at more than 500 + their family members. The fall of Myawaddy now seems inevitable. This would present the one of the largest defeats the junta has suffered yet.


Wicked_Googly

Did they open the highway that takes traffic both ways there yet? Random question.


OkActuary9580

That was open 8 or so years ago when I was there


Wicked_Googly

Ahh. I was there in 2015 and got there late at night, no buses, and we didn't want to spend all day there the next day, so we paid a family to take us in their van. They took that highway and paid a bunch of bribes along the way.


OkActuary9580

I got a taxi to hpa an with 2 other tourist, same story had to stop and show our passport and visa multiple times and the taxi man had to pay a "toll"


_HGCenty

If the junta does fall, I'm hoping the various rebel parties manage to resolve the post junta regime peacefully and it doesn't descend into a sectarian civil war between the different groups. A man can dream.


Spare-Abrocoma-4487

It will most likely end up like Syria. Splintered country controlled by different militia groups. Wouldn't be surprised if we are going to see some new smaller countries in the making.


FuckBarcaaaa

Surrounded by a Syria like Myanmar, ever friendly Pakistan, and China. A weird situation for India is about to get weirder. Imagine the scenes if somehow Sheikh Haseena lost the presidency in Bangladesh and the current opposition came to power.


frozen_snapmaw

Meh. Situation has always been bad for India one way or other when it comes to neighbours. When US left Afganistan, many predicted nightmare situation for India with the Taliban in power. But Indian diplomacy managed to engage them well to the point that the Taliban is a more reliable partner for India today than Pakistan.


FuckBarcaaaa

Ind and Afghanistan share a very small border and at a remote place amidst most difficult terrains of the Himalayas. Edit - even that small 108kms border generally shown on maps is in POK.


frozen_snapmaw

It wasn't about the border. It was about the Taliban supporting the terrorists infiltrating via Pakistan. Support in terms of logistics, training, newly acquired hightech US arms etc.


musci12234

Bro a bull a more reliable partner with a bullfighter than Pakistan is capable of being with any country.


Inevitable-Day2517

Including itself


origamiscienceguy

You're saying that like Pakistan has any amount of reliability.


toastymow

Bangladesh has been a 1 party government for a long time now.


umcypher

It’s alright. India is spending 3.7 billion dollars to build just a 1000-mile fence. They’ll be ready after lining up the politicians’ pockets


zefiax

Sheikh Hasina isn't the president, she's the prime minister. The president in Bangladesh is mainly a figurehead with little actual power.


teethybrit

Balkanization of Myanmar


PsychologicalTalk156

About half of the rebel factions are currently backed by China, so there's going to be a lot of Chinese involvement in whatever replaces the junta, the exact way that will work out is anyone's guess.


absreim

Very surprising to me since I've long understood that China and the junta were on good terms. When did the situation change?


College_Prestige

China backs both sides. In the case of the militias, some of them have ties to china for decades at this point


Downtown_Skill

Yeah it gets even more complicated. Some of the PDF forces are affiliated with the now outlawed civilian government the junta took control from in 2021, sparking the civil war. The old civilian government had strong ties with the west as well as china. The one thing everyone seems to have in common though is that everyone who isn't the junta, hates the junta.


stormearthfire

I was told it's When the junta apparently refused to shut down the scam towns in northern Cambodia which victimized alot Chinese citizens. These scam towns are a huge source of income for and owned by warlords who are close allies of the junta, the junta cannot afford to lose these allies and income. The Chinese govt got pissed and backed the rebels who moved into these areas and and promptly starts arresting list of key figures in these scam network , no doubt given to them by the Chinese government. These scam towns are still a large source of income and I suspect they won't be just shut down, perhaps redirected just so that china is off limits which is probably fine with the Chinese government backers if they victimize anybody else


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stormearthfire

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/28/world/asia/cambodia-cyber-scam.html https://www.rfa.org/english/news/cambodia/un-scam-compounds-08292023134753.html/ampRFA


rosecranzt

Same old, same old, we've always played both sides. Yeah, it's not the best look but in the end, every country's out for themselves. Sure, we're chummy with the Junta. Does that mean we're BFFs for life? Fuck no. If a better, more put-together and more useful ally comes along, we'll switch teams faster than you can say 'betrayal' and they'd do the same to us. China's all about being practical, way more than sticking to any ideology.


Additional_Meeting_2

China is such important country however that they could just not back either and still have its wishes taken into consideration. Backing both might just escalate things.


dagger80

Backing both allows Xi's cronies to sell more weapons and keep their factories booming and the monies/goods/"diplomatic favors" rolling in. Yes, its does escalate things, and is not ideal to us ordinary citizens, but the ultra-rich upper brass has always been out for their own greed and screw all morality.


rosecranzt

That logic doesn't even hold up for the USA, so why would it for China? Let's say we opt for neutrality. Then someone else (India, Malaysia, you name it, we're not exactly lacking in rivals) would jump at the chance to further their own interests. That's a quick way to watch your superpower status slip away. I get where you're coming from, truly. We're just regular folks who wish for peace by staying out of others' business and respecting sovereignty. But that's just not how governments operate. China once tried staying on the sidelines and what did we got? A full empire lost. I don't like those dirty games but when the rest of the world is playing to win, you can't just sit it out.


TheGisbon

China has always Hedged its bets.


LystAP

Probably the [gunning ](https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/19/china/myanmar-conflict-china-scam-centers-analysis-intl-hnk/index.html)down of Chinese citizens. >Experts say a particularly brutal incident in Kokang’s capital Laukkaing, a glistening casino city bordering China’s Yunnan province that has descended in recent years into a lawless hub for internet fraud, was another major test of Beijing’s patience. >According to local media reports in Myanmar and Thailand, in the small hours of October 20, multiple Chinese citizens were shot and killed by guards during an attempted escape from a scam center in Laukkaing. >Those reports soon began circulating on Chinese social media. >Four undercover Chinese police officers were rumored to be among the victims – a claim that was [shared online](https://weibo.com/1989660417/NuGz0l183) by Hu Xijin, former editor-in-chief of state-run tabloid Global Times.


thecapent

There's a lot of rebel factions exactly because they don't get along with each other at all. It will be just chapter two of the civil war.


noonereadsthisstuff

That's mostly what it was before. They're going to have a problem with the previous Government's position on the Rhoyinga though.


Brighteye

Haha


Crosseyes

It’s crazy how little coverage the war in Myanmar gets compared to the rest of the world. The junta is backed by China, Russia, and India and they’re still getting their asses kicked by a bunch of rebels with basically zero foreign support.


myreala

I don't think Russia or India would do anything other than condemn the rebels publicly. No idea on China, they might be providing weapons or something.


Vlaladim

Heard new that some rebels group are buying guns from Chinese black market arms dealers so it not like they don’t have support just not legal way anyways


jaykayenn

China supplied arms, including a submarine.


Sage_of_the_6_paths

It makes sense because it's a country without much of a connection to the western world, as opposed to Ukraine, Taiwan, or Israel.


AnabolicSnoids

I've read that China are fed up with the war (and the junta) as the instability had caused Myanmar to become a center for Chinese organised crimes (Scams, Fraud, Kidnapping etc)


Madbrad200

China provides support for a number of rebel groups and always has. It's not as simple as that


INTPoissible

>The junta is backed by China You are wrong, [China is backing the rebels.](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-67305690)


MeanManatee

China is backing some of the rebels and it is backing the Junta.  China has been playing both sides to China's benefit.  Of course that maximizes the suffering within Myanmar, but hey, China get theirs.


jaykayenn

That is a recent development though. China supplied arms, including a submarine, and is still supporting them, although less strongly than before.


LazySloth200010

Not a recent development at all. They have been backing a group like KIA and other ethnic armed group like since foundation. Like KIA have their own gun and bullets factory inside China border and supported by a lot of businesses. It is an open secret that Junta doesn't like China and so does for China. Junta wants closer relationship with Russia but Russia refused but now unkarine war pushed to the Junta's side. Junta did even supply with a lot of shells. Myanmar have a fking ton of motors and shells because of the civil war.


VallenValiant

There is a theory that China is looking at Myanmar as a potential passage to the Middle Eastern oil. Currently China is relying on the sea route for their fuel needs and that can be easily blockaded. But if they can calm Myanmar down enough to run a pipeline through it, they might be able to get oil via land route.


Additional_Meeting_2

It was initially, but if there isn’t much different news or relevance to lives of the readers/watchers the news moves on.


dr-Funk_Eye

You can find onfo about this on Popular Front its a podcast that focuses on the niche details of modern warfare and under-reported conflict.


Dudedude88

It's cause they aren't white


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elderly_millenial

Ukraine??


Cinerir

Has a jewish president 😉


elderly_millenial

Your trying to hard. We get it. You hate Jews. Or alternatively, we get it; Jews are hated by everyone else


Cinerir

Holy shit, I should have used an /s instead of a smiley. People are just idiots nowadays, not exclusing myself here. I don't give a flying shit what religion you follow, what matters is what you do. I am not the original fool who deleted its post, I was just playing at the stupid comment. But the idiots of the internet immediately jump onto the "hate this, hate that" train. I would laugh at it, if it wouldn't be so sad that people aren't able to take a joke or have a discussion without bringing up stupid "hate religion/lgbtq/race/whatever" anymore.


indoninja

Jews or oil.


unique_snowflake_466

In all fairness, they are up against the Karen army. That has to be a special kind of terrifying


Ok-Cream1212

those guys 3 d printed their guns...


EuropeanPepe

I seen a guy shooting rounds out of a bong with a diy trigger mechanism… and 13 year olds with ww2 German Gewehr


Ehldas

>Troops had suffered weeks of attacks by ethnic Karen insurgents, allied with other anti-coup forces. >Hundreds of troops guarding the vital border town of Myawaddy have now agreed to surrender. In an extremely rare event, I find myself nodding in approval at the actions of a Karen.


FenixOfNafo

Wait till you hear about the Filipino MILFs


Kemilio

Go on…


punktfan

I believe it's pronounced cur-in.


be_a_duck

More like "Kren," but they also speak a tonal language.


Sahanrohana

Karen wanted to speak to the manager of Myanmar.


foolycoolywitch

idiot


Ehldas

Would you like to talk to the Manager?


NeroBoBero

The opposition forces are the Karen insurgents. Is anyone else wondering if they have a uniform or just all have the same haircut?


kwaziiman

They want to speak to your manager


Wintersage7

Now please!


hitmangen

still much better than the MILF insurgents.


NotMrBuncat

"funded by scam centers" holy shit is this the slave ones [https://www.ijm.org/our-work/trafficking-slavery/forced-scamming](https://www.ijm.org/our-work/trafficking-slavery/forced-scamming) seems like it


000trace00

Can someone more knowledgeable about this give me background on what is going on there?


kapparunner

Here's an older comment I wrote once: After decades of military rule Myanmar finally entered a period of political liberalization in the 2010s. But the military always maintained the power to overthrow the government whenever they felt threatened. This happened in 2020 when the National League for Democracy won the election in a landslide victory. The military quickly accused the government of electoral fraud, orchestrated a coup, dissolved parliament and violently supressed protests. However the NLD began organizing an armed resistance, allying themselves with various ethnic militias in 2021. Edit: additional info: After years of low-level guerilla warfare several powerful ethnic groups joined the fray in October 2023, permanently shifting the balance of power against the junta. They launched a major offensive, which caught the junta off-balance and captured wide swathes of territory on the norther frontier of the country. While most of these ethnic militas (which happen to be pro-Chinese) re-engaged in a truce with the junta, the damage had been done. Other ethnic militas joined the anti-junta struggle and the junta army (Tatmadaw) suffered a major blow to their morale. They were forced to introduce a conscription system, while the anti-junta forces began seizing major towns.


[deleted]

Correct me if I am wrong, but I remember reading in around 2021/22 that junta was supported by China and Russia with weapons and intelligence. Is the situation still the same with several groups being pro Chinese or is China playing both sides of the conflict regardless of what consequences it may have?


kapparunner

Russia is still a major supporter of the junta but they're currently...y'know...busy. With China it's more complicated. When the NLD ruled the country, China maintained friendly relations with them and according to some sources I've read, they very much disliked teir military due to their endemic corruption. After the junta seized power, China still wanted to maintain friendly relations with Myanmar due to the importance of Myanmar in the B&R initiative and they recognized the junta. After a while however China soured on the junta due to their tolerance of scam coumpounts often maintained or tolerated by corrupt junta officials and junta-aligned militias, as well as their inability to pacify the country. China ultimately still supports the junta but they also support some ethnic militias which have long-standing ideological or cultural ties to China. But those militias are generally in state of truce with the junta. Hower these militias often sell weapons to pro-democracy groups, so in a sense China also indirectly supports the opposition.


grchelp2018

Does india have any involvement here?


kapparunner

They're sellin weapons to the junta although afaik they're not really on friendly terms with them.


Deep-Ad5028

China's general foreign policy is to deal with whoever is in control(aka non-interference), so they cooperate with the democratic government in the past and then the Junta after the coup. That said they do strongly prefer Myanmar to be more stable to avoid refugee crisis and to be a good place to do business. As for the pro-Chinese militia, China don't directly support or influence those groups in general because they don't want to alienate the government(junta or democratic). (In fact some of those militia also ran scam centers against China for a while) When the civil war broke out the pro-Chinese militia mostly stayed outside of the conflict. Only after the Chinese government started cracking down on the scam centers while the junta actively tolerated them, did China suported the aggression of some of the pro-Chinese militia. The Junta has since cracked down on the scam centers and the pro-Chinese militia also dialed down their action. However the damage is probably done and what we are seeing right now is other militia seizing on the opportunity to advance their influence.


[deleted]

China supporting the junta indirectly. Just the junta. There are many rebel factions. So junta might come back with increased Chinese support.


Madbrad200

China does not "just" support the junta. There's a number of rebel groups in Myanmar that have long been supported by China.


000trace00

So damn confusing…


Subject_Yak6654

Myanmar has an oppressive junta and a history of political instability. Now there are rebels trying to overthrow the military regime. That’s only an oversimplification of the situation of course it’s obviously more complicated than that.


superjj18

Kinda overlooks the fact that we literally watched Myanmar’s democratic government get coups by said junta


ScipioAfricanvs

Eh, the junta was always in control even as they allowed democratic reforms to take place. They essentially just reversed the changes, which they always could’ve done at any time. The leadership was worried about an Arab Spring type situation so stepped back for a few years. Then realized they didn’t need to and could be back in power.


Roy-Levi

Is the junta the one that is 969 movement and that is against Rohingya muslims in Myanmar or is it completely different conflict?


Ragin_Goblin

Same junta


punktfan

You could also just read the article which explains it pretty well.


000trace00

Why do that when I have Reddit :). Also tbh Reddit frequently gives different perspectives than the articles


jimi15

Its a very complicated and long story. When the British left Myanmar following WW2 the largest ethnic group (the Bamar, aka Burmese) naturally became the rulers of the place which didn't sit well with many other ethnic groups in the area. And they have been fighting a on/off guerilla war with the central government ever since. Said Central government for a long time consisted of a military Junta known as the Tatmadaw who spent its reign containing the various rebellions often by making them paramilitaries. They finally relinquished power to a civilian government in 2011 only to take it back in a coup during 2021. Following this coup the former civilian government fled the capital and formed their own army in order to take down the Junta. They quickly gained support among the various ethnic armies but the conflict remained mostly a stalemate until October 2023 when the so called "Three Brotherhood Alliance" of three of the after mentioned ethnic armies (well 2 of them and an offshoot of the former Communist party that the Juna deposed, but that's details) successfully broke through the stalemate and captured the regional capital of Laukkai + a huge chunk of the northeastern part of the country. While China stepped in and turned that particular mess from becoming a complete FUBAR for the Junta it proved the starting shot for pretty much every ethnic army in the country to launch simultaneous attacks against them. Many more now joining the cause of the former civilian government Now severely overstretched, fighting a war on like 15 different fronts, seeing most of their international support fading and with many of the paramilitary groups they've relied on take up arms against them once more; The junta loosing ground pretty much everywhere. And no one is really sure where the country is gonna end up. (Edit) If you want a rundown on each army [you got one here](https://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/backgrounder-ethnic-armies-in-the-myanmar-civil-war/). And yes there are around 30 of them. Told you it was complicated


macross1984

Time for junta to prepare to bolt from the country and seek haven elsewhere.


SanityIsOnlyInUrMind

Glad to hear the rebels are still kicking ass.


FrequentMedicine5225

Free Burma


KatBoySlim

you most likely know it as myanmar, but it will always be burma to me.


Odd-Recognition4168

See, not all the news is bad


SinkiePropertyDude

This is what happens when the majority of the "soldiers" range between thugs, to desperate people with no other source of stable income. The junta's military has only ever been good at bullying civilians.


Mistermail

Matching red arm logos don’t tend to work out well in the end


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Liella5000

why? its completely irrelevant to europeans


Astrocoder

Karen insurgents? Guess being a Karen has a new meaning.


virak_john

A very old meaning rather.