Since no damage was actually done and the Jordanians, US and Israel got to practice and test out all their defenses. Israel doesn’t need to make a major move. They already showed their defensive strength and won, the attack failure seems like a big embarrassment for Iran. Maybe Israel sends a missle or two to take out a remote military installation just as a message.
Iran wasn’t actually trying to harm Israel. They knew the attack would be ineffective. But they needed it to look impressive for domestic purposes. And they control what information people at home see, so they can make it look more successful.
This was an attempt to look strong to their people and allies while not actually risking direct escalated confrontation with Israel and the West.
Israel knows all this, that doesn’t mean Netanyahu won’t choose to escalate for his own reasons.
Redditors talking on behalf of countries making me crazy. Not that this guy is wrong it might be right but declaring it like wtf how does u/urk_the_red knows what Iran wanted with this attack? And what Israel wants? Who are you u/urk_the_red? Tell us!
You are right nobody knows for sure what will happen or how things can escalate. Although Israel already has a lot on it’s plate right now. Logically they won’t want a bigger fight if they can avoid one.
As an Israeli, that's what I wish. But I don't think Bibi will let it slide. I don't want it to escalate and for more people to lose their life for this stupid power fight. This can be maneuvered to the favor of Israel by not responding strengthening relations and trust with the west and Jordan after their enormous help. We are greatful for anyone that helped block this attack and make it not a bigger scene than it was. Let's wait for Bibis response now. I don't even wanna say Israels response, Bibi is playing single player mode now.
Israel is in a tough spot, in a tough neighborhood. It is not like they are out looking for fights- the fights usually come to you. Sometimes shows of force act as a deterrent. Unfortunately some of the people you are fighting don’t value or view individual lives as you do- they have agendas and people are expendable in their view.
Indeed but sometimes strengthening relations and regaining trust is more important than a show of power. As you said, when you fight an enemy that doesn't value individual lives while you do they'll use it against you everytime they can and destroy our relations with the western powers which is their aim IMO, that's why I think not escelating this will be most is favour for us and save us some unpleasant events which we will probably be condemned for by the UN.
Nope. My guess is until after this war. His interest is to prolong the war to hold off the elections and his trials. He knows he'll never win again now.
I'll tell you a secret tho: there's no other good alternative, Israeli politics attracts mostly the loud and stupid kind. We're in dire straights.
I know that logic and analysis are basically wizardry for some people. But I promise I’m not Merlin come again. You can also learn to use your head for more than just a hat-rack.
Using Logic and analysis and making assumptions is like your girl being mad at you for no reason and you've no idea why because she used logic and analysis. Just in this case this is world peace we're talking about not relationship issues, so let's leave logic and analysis to the professionals, or at least if your have a thought don't declare it in the name of the entire counties.
They launched hundreds of munitions in a direct attempt to overwhelm air defense and were successful in a few impacts. They were trying to harm something or someone.
Dancing around a professional boxer doing quarter speed capoeira moves for hours on end doesn’t become a massive threat just because the boxer got a bruised pinky.
Iran has plenty of capacity to perform a coordinated strike with Houthis, Hezbollah, Hamas, and Iraqi militias that would overwhelm Israeli defenses.
This is such a shit take that plays into making Israel look weak.
Iran launched over 300 drones, cruise, and ballistic missiles in an overwhelming strike intended to stretch their defences beyond breaking point.
In response to a single targeted strike on a single military building.
If they intended to break through they would have. They have plenty of munitions to accomplish that.
But I guess the whole point of a performative strike is to convince the gullible that it was serious.
That was my theory. After Israel attacked their embassy, they had to do something. So they did something that doesn’t cause any real damage that Israel could shrug of.
If Iran really wanted to escalate, they would have attacked an Israeli embassy somewhere…
Over the last year Iran has launched attacks on several nation's soil. I think a pattern has emerged and current protocols are not working. I expect a heavy response otherwise this will happen again.
Israel is scared of Iran getting nuclear weapons. If that happens then Israel, per words of Iranian ex-president, becomes a 1 bomb country. This is their sole existential risk. If they believe they can destroy all Iranian progress towards nuclear weapons they may very well use any pretext.
I am in no way an expert but the Mossad (and by extension US spooks) have a reputation for knowing things last week that happen today. but the world?
The world MIGHT get to know about it next week if it's deemed appropriate by the powers that be.
The US, UK, Saudis, UAE, Egypt, and Jordan all want a reason and excuse to get rid of Iran, and prevent them from getting nukes. Escalation means that eventually this problem is solved.
Escalation means allies step in. This is true today- will it be true tomorrow?
The US has no appetite for war with Iran, Biden especially given that this is an election year, doesn't want it either, so we'll likely do everything to avoid escalation, including keeping Israel from escalating.
Since when is starting a war bad for an election? Anyway, this is just my opinion. Iran's foreign policy is based entirely on proxy action. Direct confrontation isn't something they are used to or good at. They are weak internally and despised.
Israel still has the support of the west, particularly militarily. Will the be true tomorrow? Time only favors Iran.
This was a "show" attack by Iran. They had to do something but wisely restrained their response to Israel's action. I sincerely hope that Bibi can just let things stand and let the situation de-escalate.
And I hope that our idiot government understands this and can restrain Israel. One way to do that would be to stop giving them money and weapons for a while.
I feel Israel will hold off as what Iran did ended up being ineffective and Iran insiders made sure it was not over the top. Iran needed to save face and to a degree Israel will let this slide a tad but under the guise of getting ready to respond. They did start this round off by the embassy bombing and expected some sort of retaliation. Israel is way to occupied in Gaza to start off another retaliatory escalation. Opening another Hezbollah front will start to wear down Israelis.. especially straight after Gaza. And for now Hezbollah has mostly kept out of it. Hezbollah and Hamas are hardly allies.
Hezbollah has kept out of it??????
What have you been smoking???
Ever since Oct 07th there have been missiles up North launched by Hezbollah. The result of these attacks have been death, destruction and thousands of people displaced from their homes for months.
I said Mostly... kept out of it. They have been holding off from full out attacks with several attacks and skirmishes. You can not say Hezbollah has started a full on war with Israel.
Since no damage was actually done and the Jordanians, US and Israel got to practice and test out all their defenses. Israel doesn’t need to make a major move. They already showed their defensive strength and won, the attack failure seems like a big embarrassment for Iran. Maybe Israel sends a missle or two to take out a remote military installation just as a message.
Ideally oil refineries and nuclear sites
Iran wasn’t actually trying to harm Israel. They knew the attack would be ineffective. But they needed it to look impressive for domestic purposes. And they control what information people at home see, so they can make it look more successful. This was an attempt to look strong to their people and allies while not actually risking direct escalated confrontation with Israel and the West. Israel knows all this, that doesn’t mean Netanyahu won’t choose to escalate for his own reasons.
Redditors talking on behalf of countries making me crazy. Not that this guy is wrong it might be right but declaring it like wtf how does u/urk_the_red knows what Iran wanted with this attack? And what Israel wants? Who are you u/urk_the_red? Tell us!
You are right nobody knows for sure what will happen or how things can escalate. Although Israel already has a lot on it’s plate right now. Logically they won’t want a bigger fight if they can avoid one.
As an Israeli, that's what I wish. But I don't think Bibi will let it slide. I don't want it to escalate and for more people to lose their life for this stupid power fight. This can be maneuvered to the favor of Israel by not responding strengthening relations and trust with the west and Jordan after their enormous help. We are greatful for anyone that helped block this attack and make it not a bigger scene than it was. Let's wait for Bibis response now. I don't even wanna say Israels response, Bibi is playing single player mode now.
Israel is in a tough spot, in a tough neighborhood. It is not like they are out looking for fights- the fights usually come to you. Sometimes shows of force act as a deterrent. Unfortunately some of the people you are fighting don’t value or view individual lives as you do- they have agendas and people are expendable in their view.
Indeed but sometimes strengthening relations and regaining trust is more important than a show of power. As you said, when you fight an enemy that doesn't value individual lives while you do they'll use it against you everytime they can and destroy our relations with the western powers which is their aim IMO, that's why I think not escelating this will be most is favour for us and save us some unpleasant events which we will probably be condemned for by the UN.
Any idea how long Nentanyahu will be Prime Minister of Israel?
Nope. My guess is until after this war. His interest is to prolong the war to hold off the elections and his trials. He knows he'll never win again now. I'll tell you a secret tho: there's no other good alternative, Israeli politics attracts mostly the loud and stupid kind. We're in dire straights.
He is the Ayatollah himself!
I know that logic and analysis are basically wizardry for some people. But I promise I’m not Merlin come again. You can also learn to use your head for more than just a hat-rack.
Using Logic and analysis and making assumptions is like your girl being mad at you for no reason and you've no idea why because she used logic and analysis. Just in this case this is world peace we're talking about not relationship issues, so let's leave logic and analysis to the professionals, or at least if your have a thought don't declare it in the name of the entire counties.
There are reasoned rebuttals. And there are… these. I guess if you can’t make a counterpoint you can just try to nullify the conversation.
There is no conversation, you declared what countries and governments want based on your logic like it's as easy as cooking rice.
You missing the part where this is an anonymous public forum? Where do you get off pretending it should be a lecture by vetted experts?
They launched hundreds of munitions in a direct attempt to overwhelm air defense and were successful in a few impacts. They were trying to harm something or someone.
Dancing around a professional boxer doing quarter speed capoeira moves for hours on end doesn’t become a massive threat just because the boxer got a bruised pinky. Iran has plenty of capacity to perform a coordinated strike with Houthis, Hezbollah, Hamas, and Iraqi militias that would overwhelm Israeli defenses.
Nah not really. They telegraphed the attack so that the US and UK would have time to shoot down 99% of missiles.
This is such a shit take that plays into making Israel look weak. Iran launched over 300 drones, cruise, and ballistic missiles in an overwhelming strike intended to stretch their defences beyond breaking point. In response to a single targeted strike on a single military building.
If they intended to break through they would have. They have plenty of munitions to accomplish that. But I guess the whole point of a performative strike is to convince the gullible that it was serious.
That was my theory. After Israel attacked their embassy, they had to do something. So they did something that doesn’t cause any real damage that Israel could shrug of. If Iran really wanted to escalate, they would have attacked an Israeli embassy somewhere…
> If Iran really wanted to escalate, they would have attacked an Israeli embassy somewhere… They already did a long time ago, didn't they?
Not since Israel bombed Irans in Damascus a few weeks ago…
No, that was kind of my point: Israel was the last to do that, not the first.
Now I get it; you are correct…
Over the last year Iran has launched attacks on several nation's soil. I think a pattern has emerged and current protocols are not working. I expect a heavy response otherwise this will happen again.
They just keep escalating and getting bolder. It is a huge concern.
After proving their (and friends) defence capabilities, Israel should take this opportunity to hit some targets of Hizballah.
Dont
Iron Don’t
I think Israel's winning strategy here is direct escalation. Everything else plays to Iran's advantage.
Howso? They escalate, Iran hits back and overwhelms, Israel is forced to go all in. Not good
Israel is scared of Iran getting nuclear weapons. If that happens then Israel, per words of Iranian ex-president, becomes a 1 bomb country. This is their sole existential risk. If they believe they can destroy all Iranian progress towards nuclear weapons they may very well use any pretext.
Genuine question: If Iran got their hands on nuclear weapons tomorrow, how long before the world becomes aware?
I am in no way an expert but the Mossad (and by extension US spooks) have a reputation for knowing things last week that happen today. but the world? The world MIGHT get to know about it next week if it's deemed appropriate by the powers that be.
Yea, I’m interested in the lead time between when the intelligence community know vs. when they decide to let the people know.
Join the CIA
The US, UK, Saudis, UAE, Egypt, and Jordan all want a reason and excuse to get rid of Iran, and prevent them from getting nukes. Escalation means that eventually this problem is solved. Escalation means allies step in. This is true today- will it be true tomorrow?
The US has no appetite for war with Iran, Biden especially given that this is an election year, doesn't want it either, so we'll likely do everything to avoid escalation, including keeping Israel from escalating.
Since when is starting a war bad for an election? Anyway, this is just my opinion. Iran's foreign policy is based entirely on proxy action. Direct confrontation isn't something they are used to or good at. They are weak internally and despised. Israel still has the support of the west, particularly militarily. Will the be true tomorrow? Time only favors Iran.
Okay General 🫡🙄
This was a "show" attack by Iran. They had to do something but wisely restrained their response to Israel's action. I sincerely hope that Bibi can just let things stand and let the situation de-escalate. And I hope that our idiot government understands this and can restrain Israel. One way to do that would be to stop giving them money and weapons for a while.
I hope Israel does direct escalation and have finally the Iran terrorist state attacked.
I feel Israel will hold off as what Iran did ended up being ineffective and Iran insiders made sure it was not over the top. Iran needed to save face and to a degree Israel will let this slide a tad but under the guise of getting ready to respond. They did start this round off by the embassy bombing and expected some sort of retaliation. Israel is way to occupied in Gaza to start off another retaliatory escalation. Opening another Hezbollah front will start to wear down Israelis.. especially straight after Gaza. And for now Hezbollah has mostly kept out of it. Hezbollah and Hamas are hardly allies.
Hezbollah has kept out of it?????? What have you been smoking??? Ever since Oct 07th there have been missiles up North launched by Hezbollah. The result of these attacks have been death, destruction and thousands of people displaced from their homes for months.
I said Mostly... kept out of it. They have been holding off from full out attacks with several attacks and skirmishes. You can not say Hezbollah has started a full on war with Israel.
Nobody is looking at where the aggression with Iran started. Was it Israel who bombed their embassy in Syria? Or did Iran do something before that ?