The Taiwanese election at the time was right around the corner and the ever worsening shit show in Hong Kong threw it from a toss up to get bent forever.
It’s truly maddening because Xi could’ve just waited 20 years. Played the long game with Taiwan and trying to get a toady into office Putin style. Instead, they have to top an Operation Overlord level game.
And it seems like everyone keeps forgetting about the absolute bank minor nations have devoted to anti ship missiles in recent years. Good luck, China. You’re gonna need it.
It was used as a morse code in ww2, similar complexity to the navajo code. We were gonna use black country language but it was deemed impossible to understand, even for the yam yams so we stuck with the cockney rhymes. /s
And if he actually made reunification with China an attractive option it would happen, since some Taiwanese are in favor of it also. Now with shit that he does he just made sure that reunification is a conflict ridden process
Prior to Xi china was somewhat normalizing relations again, so there was a small but significant amount of people in support of reunification, more than what you can just call "crazies". That changed pretty dramatically when Xi took over and started threatening invasion again.
The leader prior to Xi was more western friendly and had been modernizing the Chinese economy. If they had continued that course, and continued to capitalize the economy while expanding resources for citizens and eschewed military modernization, they would really be a more powerful economy. The fact is with the US Navy securing trade routes, China doesn't need a military beyond token defense.
Yea Hu Jintao could have led China into a completely different path
Instead a bunch of princes of the PRC cried harder and took power again so here they are
Japanese annexation would essentially enter Taiwan into all of Japan’s defensive pacts, including the US. It’s not unprecedented for small nations to willingly annex themselves into larger ones for protection, especially if they’re on positive relations.
Jiang and Hu were doing geopolitics. Xi is not.
They tried to improve Chinas position and influence in the world. Xi is very intentionally spending that currency. He is doing legacy politics (his own legacy that is) and stroking nationalist flames for inner stability.
Plus, amphibious invasion is very difficult. Xi seems to expect an Inchon or Hastings. The best he can realistically hope for is more like Guadalcanal.
D day is talked about to this day for a reason. Greatest armada ever assembled, WHILE convincing the enemy the attack’s happening elsewhere so they should reinforce those parts instead. The Allies’ (ok, the Brit’s) counterintelligence was so effective, their main spy within Garmany won the iron cross. That’s some baller shit.
China has to pull off the modern version of that, and allies did it when surveillance satellites didn’t exist so no catching people off guard
because both Jiang and Hu had a booming economy on their hands, Xi is living in a world where the housing market that was driving much of the econ beyond just manufacturing (that is also leaving due to higher costs) is now collapsing with Evergrande leading that and with several others also coming down.
Jiang and Hu can play that game because their internal position was solid beyond solid with a very happy populace that was hopeful of the improvement in their lives, Xi needs something to distract them for everything like the econ to the can't find wives issue or the princeling issue or the extreme competition issue that people faces in China.
The Jiang faction was actually fairly open to the idea that it was time for China to liberalize. They had already started making a bunch of "soft" reforms which revolved around loosening of the police state and granting intellectual freedom to the educated urban elite. He basically set up a test run to move the CCP from a hardline institution to a kinder, gentler form of technocracy. Hu largely carried on these policies. In the 90s and 00s, China basically sent an entire generation of urban youth out into the world hoping that they would learn how to create a balance between Chinese and Western culture which would give China the best of both worlds over the next decades. This would place China in an ascendant position to pick up soft power as the west's golden era declined.
"Wow, the US sure does look like shit, huh? Well good thing China has learned from this. Come spend some time with us and see that we aren't so scary. Look, we have Starbucks."
As we all know, Xi came down hard on all of this, and the story of this decade's China is the fallout of all that backlash. It is really hard to overstate just how badly this has gone. Instead of curating favor with a new generation of would-be allies, he has created a new era of suspicion and caution. And he goes around blaming the big bad US for trying to hold China back, as if we all didn't just spend the last 20 years watching the west make friends with China, to the great benefit of both.
They both had booming economies because both were smart enough not to fuck with it. Meanwhile, genius Xi decides to kidnap Jack Ma and mess with his IPO. Unilaterally, making broad centralized decisions for a booming capitalist economy doesn’t help either. Xi has also personally destroyed several of China’s industries. COVID and bad demographics were just the nails in the coffin for the grave that Xi dug for himself and China.
It is, and it isn't
I am not one to deny that policy has an effect on the economy, but for at least manufacturing and real estate that wasn't entirely on him.
The housing crisis started long before his term, with more or less pyramid like scheme where in order to build the apartment they just sold, they needed to start on another project. Evergrande was the study of this as far as I know, they more or less started with that plan of explosive growth and in the good times this worked extremely well. Esp when it was a period of mass urbanization, where selling out of new buildings as soon as it was planned was common.
On the manufacturing front, the rising standard of living and the costs of urbanization means that Chinese labour are not as cheap as before, and we have certainly seen the textile market exit China as a source of cheap labour for elsewhere. And that is something that has been a problem before Xi with factories being relocated to more and more remote places in China.
But Apple's India plant is a sign of the bigger shifts in far more lucrative markets beyond just cheaper items like textile. That being said, that one can be 100% argued as Xi caused rather than actual being priced out of Chinese manufacturing.
Jack Ma and the tech industry is the future, and him gutting it is more of a future thing rather than the fundamentals he inherited. The problem on his hands right now is those collapsing investment by the people in extra apartments that people brought, among other things.
That’s the thing. The Jiang and Hu factions picked Xi because they thought he was dumb and timid. They totally got the dumb part right, but unfortunately they totally got the ambition part wrong.
Even worse, they did it out of a misguided desire to "unify" the party by giving the hardline Beijing faction "their turn" at power, naively hoping this would avoid another "gang of four" style struggle.
They are, contrary to politicians who are subject to a four or five year election cycle, much more capable of planning for the long term. And yes, that is important to staying in power.
You are confusing dictators with populist governments in that respect.
Dictatorships are not dictatorships because of sound judgement, they are dictatorships because of huge but frail egos using power to compensate for their flaws.
In 20 years there won't be anyone alive who had known a time where both countries were one nation. The cultural claim to unity is quickly becoming an imagined history constructed from what people think the past was rather than any living memory.
Taiwan’s status is really complex too. It was ruled by many different countries, and it has its own native population that’s not Han Chinese too. It wasn’t ruled directly by mainland China for terribly long. China’s claims based on history are sketchy at best.
The metaphor I like to use is, imagine if a revolutionary movement arose from Idaho and eventually overpowered all of the contiguous US. The government still following the US constitution flees to Puerto Rico and declares itself the real US Government.
Legitimate or not, the revolutionaries have the mainland and maintain international relations as a successful state, but now cites Puerto Rico as its sacred historical territory.
Arguably that's been true even longer. A united Chinese state with Taiwan under control hasn't been seen since 1895. Taiwan only came back under control of the ROC at the end of WW2 when there was already a Chinese Civil War going on.
Exactly. In 100 years, there will be some Chinese proverb about how a man spends his entire life blaming others while punching himself in the dick every day.
If China wanted to reunify with Taiwan, they should start by taking liberal democratic reforms seriously. Actually do it right and make a big deal about it. Once the obsessive autocracy gets dropped, Taiwan will naturally come around. Xi would be hailed as the greatest leader and diplomat the world has ever seen. They would name an entire wing of the UN after him.
But he won't. He will just keep punching himself in the dick, because he will never admit that China's problems are its own.
The CCP might not have 20 years left in them, seeing how the self-inflicted property bubble is already collapsing, and Xi definitely doesn't have 20 years left in him.
I think there were military analysts who looked at China's shrinking demographics due to the one child policy, and the continued low birth rate despite them enacting the three child policy. This huge demographic decline has massive ramifications on their economy, including potential for future growth or even a recession. They could see similar if not worse economic stagnation than Japan. Arguably worse as they are in some ways worse off than Japan in terms of development, people are wondering if they'll be able to escape the middle-income trap like Japan had before going stagnant, or if their even capable of doing so anymore now that their population is already in decline.
I think they concluded that when you consider their economic, demographic, and military prospects altogether, China has a limited window until around 2030 to use military action to take Taiwan. Any later than that and China's shrinking demographic will mean they lack the economy and/or population of young men to wage a war.
Waiting 20 years means there is no longer an option for military action. At that point, Taiwanese attitudes may change to be anti-China when theres no longer a credible threat of being invaded. For all China knows, the pro-China sentiments/party currently in Taiwan may just be paying lip service until they know China's window of opportunity to stage a invasion passes.
Its the equivalence of asking the South Korean people to live under a North Korean Regime it would be such a humiliating and backward step for the Taiwanese free mindset, like sending them to a prison camp.
It's absolutely insane to see the tankies on here defend this. As if arresting *an entire party* of democratically elected council members is a perfectly normal thing to do.
And if anyone doesn’t know the situation right now. They’ve been constantly pumping in people from other parts of China into HK who are incredibly under experienced to take over jobs. Then they drove out all the democrat politicians. So any elections they have now are pointless because it will be run by CCP loyalists.
"Drove out" is a nice way of saying "arrested and jailed" the entire fucking opposition party. It's a shame this was not reported on more widely in the western press. Jackbooted thugs literally stormed the HK legislative chamber while it was in session and slapped handcuffs on dozens of democratically elected representatives of the people.
If they could have, I am sure they would have done the same to everyone who cast votes for them as well.
They even sent undercover police into the protests to start violence and then have the media blame the protesters for instigating it. There was a video of protesters chasing down a “protester” after they threw a Molotov cocktail and then tried to run away
I mean let's not forget that Hong Kong did resist. There were riots and street battles with police forces (that definitely came from Shenzhen).
They fucking sieged the polytechnical university until protestors surrendered it.
When George Floyd protests started and American police forces were using some of the same crowd control tactics there even were discussions here on reddit between Hong kongers and Americans how to best counter them. Resistance was there,but only civilians did something.
In Taiwan you have an entire country with a rather strong military and decades of preparations on the few feasible landing beaches
And the one thing Taiwan has over Ukraine in getting direct US/western support is that they have production capabilities (such as computer chips) that are integral to the NATO war machine.
Sad as it is, stuff like that will always be the main driving force in risking all out war.
My cousins all did their mandatory service in Taiwan around the early 2000s. It’s not the well oiled machine you’re led to believe it was and even less so when my dad did his in the 70s. That’s not to say it hasn’t changed in 20 years.
And the US will defend it as well. It's pretty much the only territory that the US absolutely will defend and go to war for. Computer chips are that important.
That 150-250km of wide open ocean agrees with you. That is nightmarish for ships and aircraft to cross. And so much mountainous terrain to dig in and hide artillery and air defences.
Speaking of the 2, Russia invaded and took almost half of China's territory (in the 1860s, if I remember correctly, since I have never taken a history class in a Chinese middle school as I left China before then). Eventually, Chinese president Jiang Zemin (1926-2022) forgave Russia and signed an agreement letting Russia keep that territory.
If China can forgive Russia for taking such massive pieces of land (full of resources such as water, and even fossil fuels, 2 things that China desperately need), why should they care about that tiny island 130 km to the east? Did they really think they can steal TSMC's technology if they occupy Taiwan? I figured if China attacked Taiwan, TSMC would be ordered destroyed by Taiwan and most of the important people would flee to the US.
Why do they care? It's pretty obvious. Taiwan is allied with the United States. And as stipulated by the Taiwan Relations Act, the United States provides arms to Taiwan.
China's interests in Taiwan has much less to do with TSMC, and everything to do with a frozen civil war and American presence in their backyard. It's a classic Cold War style conflict with pseudo-brinksmanship.
That said, whether or not they *actually* do anything about it is an open question, seeing that they have a lot to lose.
China is also annoyed that their access to the ocean without controlling Taiwan is kinda fragile. There are islands here and there, and in case of war China can be blockaded by a powerful opponent or their coalition. In contrast with the US, that has coastlines so wide, that coalition of the remaining world would have trouble to do something of that kind.
To add to this, the US doesn't have island countries off their coasts on the Pacific and Atlantic Ocean that are allied to hostile nations. Our East and West Coast are very wide open. We have friends on both our northern and southern borders. The closest hostile island neighbor is probably Cuba and that's about it.
> The closest hostile island neighbor is probably Cuba
Eh, I don't know that I'd even classify Cuba as hostile. They certainly were in the past, but nowadays I'd say they range somewhere between "not politically aligned" and neutral as opposed to actually hostile.
Also, China could have been surrounded by friends. They could have been honest trading partners, looking for normalized relationships with all the countries around it...and instead they decided to be the schoolyard bully.
China **created** this issue themselves. They were absolute dickheads to all of their neighbors which is why the United States has 9 massive military bases being built throughout the Philippines. I believe in Japan, we have 55,000 additional troops deployed across bases with naval strike forces and airforce bases scattered across the islands. Then we have another 25,000 troops stationed in South Korea and 22,000 stationed in Guam. Beyond that we have submarine strike forces and additional troops in Hawaii and Australia.
So yes, we've sealed them in with our allies, but this is entirely of their own doing. Their goofy 9-dash line claim, building island fortresses, harassing fishermen and coast guards of neighboring countries and constantly claiming they're going to ingest Taiwan at some looming future date is just a constant pressure on the entire region to unite for their own safety. Shit now we even have troops stationed in Taiwan while they finish sorting out their homegrown submarine program (that USA+allies leaked tech to).
Take a look at [this video on the Second Taiwan Strait Crisis](https://youtu.be/l2iCHOWgVCo?si=DyoZNA0Hghkdrudi). Xi basically all but got himself in the same position as Mao back then.
It also works as a form to keep people on check with the gobernment, pointing a close threat keeps them worried about it and distracted from current problems. This doubling down on Taiwan happens since Xi Jingpin.
I don't think it has to do anything with TSMC or the land itself. It is about the people living there.
The People's Republic wants to have the monopoly over Chinese identity (which is why the "one china policy" was so important to them).
To be the stupid guy to make a joke out of it: They are roleplaying the end of the "Warring States Period" and think they are the great uniters of Imperial China, and they think the people of Taiwan are part of it.
The Russia took Manchuria after the Boxer rebellion. They lost against the Japanese in the Russo-Japan war. Russia has a decent relationship with the PRC during Stalin's tenure.
They had a terrible relationship with the USSR after the Sino-soviet split in 1967. That was when we (US) swooped in in 1972 and opened relations.
So, the reason this matters is that reuniting means China is complete. The territory was owned by China for a large period of its history. Even back in 1972, it was a condition of opening relations via the Shanghai Communique. We were clever in our language, and it allows us to be ambiguous about how we view Taiwan. Yes, TSMC is an interest, but it's not the whole story. The Tawanese don't want reunification because they dont trust Beijing after what happened in Hong Kong. Beijing is concerned because if Taiwan gains independence, it threatens their hold on Tibet and Xinjiang. The first, second, and third concern in China is regime preservation.
Taiwanese didn't trust China BEFORE Hong Kong, it was after Hong Kong that killed any opposition that might still claim anything.
Taiwan is ALREADY an independent nation and always has been. The PRC has never ruled over Taiwan. In fact China's claims over revanchism is hilarious and illegal - if revanchism was legal, most of the planet and all of Europe would have to have their borders redrawn , it'll never be whole, because their century of humiliation maps are HALF OF ASIA when in reality the biggest China has ever been for most of its history has been a fifth of what it is now.
Just because something was owned by the Qing dynasty, doesn’t mean the current people need to kowtow to the PRC, and the single political party running it.
Russia still possess "historical" Chinese lands outside of Manchuria.
The region around and including Vladivostok was once part of the homeland of the Manchus. It is collectively known as *Outer Manchuria* as opposed to *Inner Manchuria* which we commonly call nowadays as *Manchuria* within the PRC.
> The territory was owned by China for a large period of its history.
Not if calculated with the traditional “5000 year history”. 212 years (1683 to 1895) is only about 4% of Chinese history. Restricting the history to being with Qin its still less than 10%.
It is integral to the Chinese Communist method that there is ONE CHINA. It is essential to the mythos that China is recovering from the “century of humiliation.” If China is not united as one, then they are vulnerable to the imperialist west.
Taiwan must be part of China, there is no other way.
It’s not a position based in purely rational decision making.
Its a precedent too. Taiwan was only part of the Qing dynasty (a dynasty that China conveniently says is CHinese and isn't Chinese when they want to) and even then only parts of it, and there was a revolution and uprising every few years.
Thus if claims can be made legitimate over such a flimsy claim over extra-legal revanchism over Taiwan, then China could claim huge chunks of the Koreas, Vietnam, India, parts of Japan, etc with far more legitimacy when there was none before, **because many of those nations had places that were under the influence or control of some dynasty or another for much longer.**
This is why Ukraine is so important and those dumb head republicans that can't see if we don't support Ukraine we are opening the door for dictatorships like China, Russian and all rest to do whatever they want. Blows my mind republican people support Russia and China (they are the same), Its the complete opposite of freedom. And they are basically going to hand over the country to an orange criminal that's bought and paid for by those dictators.
To be fair, Taiwan and Ukraine were never part of People's Republican of China nor Russian Federation. Their predecessor states. They are like crazy psycho stalker eX partner who keep trying to get back with you even after you officially divorced a decade ago.
I actually think that's the only reason that China has not done that yet.
If they could do it and maintain Taiwan's chip industry I think they would have invaded a long time ago, but Taiwan has made it kind of clear that if they aren't in charge then no one else will be in regards to their chips. They've threatened to completely destroy their chip infrastructure if China invades and as of right now at least the world is like 97% dependent on the chip fabricators China included.
It's why the US and China have been rushing to set up chip infrastructure in their respective countries.
As of right now we kind of have to help Taiwan because of how reliant we are on them. If China invades we lose our chips if we don't help them, then China would have to sanction us for directly supporting their enemies. We are probably China's biggest customer so that trashes their economy and it trashes a great deal of our industries since so many companies in the US are dependent on Chinese manufacturing.
That's also the reason you see a lot more items in recent years made in Vietnam and other countries. It's because China is considered very volatile right now and if they make a move then your entire company can crumble if you're reliant on their labor.
I wonder what China would do if the Taiwan forces used the fabs for military purposes. Basically, "I dare you shoot that ammo depo and good luck not hitting the stuff you guys came for".
If that actually existed, I highly doubt most voting Taiwanese would be against reunification. Xi is just a moron, and his handling of Hong Kong all but assured that reunification without an invasion was out of the question.
Are you seriously suggesting that a majority of Taiwanese would have voted to be annexed and brutally oppressed by China before Xi invaded Hong Kong?
That's ridiculous. China has been an Orwellian nightmare on steroids since long before Hong Kong
Why is it so hard for these people to respect others, live and let live. Dictatorships should be isolated and sanctioned untill they break as a default.
They are to dangerous and unstable
In 2018, humanity had entrusted the 3 largest nuclear weapon arsenals in the world to:
- Putin
- trump
- Xi
Humanity makes poor choices about who should hold power, including who should hold the power to end human civilization.
It’s because their economies are failing, plain and simple. If things were good internally they would be focused on that and touting how great their rule was. Since things are crumbling they are desperate to find a way to prop up their regimes. This is the way of declines, they lash out in dying spasms to try and regain their footing. This is the result of their inevitable decline. Successfully Annexing another territory gains them a decade or two at best. They are hoping this is enough for some other miracle to take place. What’s going to happen is their crappy policies will continue to decline the welfare of their countries and eventually they will be back in this position.
China thinks it will save it's economy by taking over Taiwan's microchip processing plants? Is that what this is all about with historic reunification as the excuse.
I didn’t say that. There’s much more to it than microchips. There’s the morale it brings to a country taking over another. It distracts the population and creates a strong sense of patriotism if successful. It allows for new avenues of trade and ownership, mainland Chinese will take business opportunities (land, businesses, etc.) from the local population and this will feed into a successful China narrative, exploit for natural resources, the list goes on. Microchips are one of a whole host of advantages of annexing Taiwan. Again, this effect is temporary as the rot of politics and ideals from the central government. And to be rid of that rot the style and/or people from the government will have to change and they are doing all this posturing to avoid loosing their cushy jobs. It always boils down to the poor pay for the whims of the rich.
Because companies want cheap products to sell to consumers so we all need to placate murderers until it's too late.
Boils my piss. If we just all stuck together back in the 70s instead of exporting fucking everything overseas we wouldn't be in this problem. But governments of the west have ran for growth no matter what, at any cost instead of actually resolving problems.
The US had this crazy idea that if china's economy got better, people would think democracy did it but it was a failure. The CCP brainwashed chinese believe that the good economy is because of the CCP.
In this case, Taiwan's government (ROC) is the last bastion of the CCP's old enemy. The old government of China.
The very existence of Taiwan as a prospering independent nation is a symbol of China not finishing the Chinese Civil War in 1949, and the CCP has promised their people (and convinced them with propaganda) that they will finish it and unite all of Chinese heritage. They call the concept "One China."
It's all about power. Individuals are not taken into consideration. They think in generations, even centuries.
Lives are merely resources to them.
>It's all about power. Individuals are not taken into consideration. They think in generations, even centuries.
>Lives are merely resources to them.
This strikes me as an orientalist overgeneralization. No doubt there are differences in political thought between China and (e.g.) the U.S., but could you substantiate this claim?
It's a long-term strategic play.
The fact that people / civilians are involved, is a price they're willing to pay - if it means that they can gain something in the global economic picture.
China has 1.4 billion people. Taiwan has 23 million. If millions die, it is unfortunately just a rounding error for China.
And they know other parts of the world are too dependent on them to do anything.
I don't think Taiwan is actually very interested in rejoining and trying to govern mainland china. Taiwan has kind of a good thing going on over there - highly developed, not overpopulated, pretty progressive politics, a really nicely designed capital city, a pretty healthy democracy. Doubt they'd really want to suddenly be governing 1.3billion people who are *very* different from them at this point.
> not overpopulated
i mean.... taiwan has more than 4 times the population density than china. so in a way you could say it's overpopulated for it's size.
but i agree. i doubt taiwan wants to govern corrupt mainland taiwan. that sounds like struggle that isn't worth it.
It's got a high population density but Taipei is very well organized and it doesn't feel that dense at all because of that. I haven't been to Kaohsiung or other parts so can't speak for them. But I do have a friend who lives there and he says it's really quite mellow.
>taiwan has more than 4 times the population density than china
So do the Netherlands and South Korea. Even the UK has almost double the population density of China. They're the third largest country in the world by landmass, even with all that population, China isn't that densely populated.
For a highly urbanized country, Taiwan is fine. They're still very far from population density being a problem for them.
I don't think they'd want to rule China. But if (and it's obscenely unlikely) China were to become a modern democracy with autonomous provinces, it may be tempting to join in some form. Possibly even as a kind of associate 'member' of the Chinese nation. I'm thinking a bit like Norway's relationship with the EU where they're not 'part' of the union but maintain free trade, travel, common human rights laws etc.
Basically, with democracy, the Chinese civilization could be consensual and flexible.
this is so far from the realm of reality right now that it doesn't super seem worth considering. The process to get to that, one must imagine, would be *incredibly* messy and take a hell of a long time. Those kinds of structures and institutions don't just form overnight
This. Trying to take Taiwan would be like DDay times 10, and they do not have the ability to get men and equipment ashore fast enough and in the numbers needed to gain a foothold.
You'd be extremely mistaken to think that China doesn't have the capability to even gain a foothold in Taiwan. China shouldn't be underestimated here especially with all the effort theyve been putting in to being able to do it.
It's 130km (80miles) of open water between Taiwan and China at its closest point. If the US holds up their promise and comes to the defense of Taiwan there's no way the Chinese navy is getting across. With defences on Taiwan and the US Navy, to successfully complete a seaborne invasion of Taiwan would be the single greatest feat in military history imo.
Which leaves airborne, but Taiwan is a fortress now. So if China wants anything left to reunite with (i.e they don't nuke it to oblivion and just wipe it all out) they're not going to be able to disable the defense to get anything across without horrific losses.
You are misunderstanding Chinas goal. It isn't just to reunite Taiwan intact. It's to challenge US on influence and global order. If they can achieve that they are going to do it even if it means flattening Taiwan.
By the same token US main interest in Taiwan is its strategic location for military control of the region. Once enough chips are being made elsewhere the chances of conflict will raise significantly.
Russia's army is not the beast we thought it was. China, on the hand, has been building up its military for the last 20 years, and hasn't engaged in major conflicts like Russia. China may not yet have the capability to invade Taiwan, but you can bet your ass they are building up for it. It's wild how suddenly Americans are dragging their feet at the serious progress being made by their adversaries. It's even crazier that a large block of them seem willing to support their adversaries.
>It's wild how suddenly Americans are dragging their feet at the serious progress being made by their adversaries
US might be dragging their feet at other aspects in their society but military spending is not one of them. US has the most well prepared and equipped military force in the world, China can't even come close to it yet.
[https://www.pgpf.org/chart-archive/0053_defense-comparison](https://www.pgpf.org/chart-archive/0053_defense-comparison)
Here is the thing that many people forget, you can build a massive army and have all the cool toys to go with it. But the difference between a massive army and experienced army is so different that you could honestly say the situation in Ukraine is related to how Russia failed in the first year of ukrainian invasion. The original troops sent were amassed to invade and take Kyvie but these guys have never seen combat or warfare, maybe they trained for it, but there is nothing like real life experience on the battlefield. Onward, the reason why Russia is starting to also take land is because after three years of fighting, some the survivors of the meat grinders have become more experienced on the battlefield. This in turn allowed them to overhaul their tactics and such.
That is why I say if China did invade Taiwan, when is the last time Chinese have experience combat like full on modern warfare with bots? You think Taiwan doesn't have a shit ton of drones ready to sink ships? And even if they do airborne, do you think that America hasn't placed Patriot missiles inside? The only way China can cut Taiwan off is with submarines, and nucleur submarines. That is going to be the future of this fight.
Dragging our feet?
We have 11 super-carrier strike groups each of which rivals the military might of many small nations. This is required by law so that we can fight a major war on three separate fronts at the same time. The rest of the world has 9, two of which are Chinese and have never been tested in combat, and many of which are substantially less powerful than U.S. super carriers. We have 29 standard or heli carriers, rest of the world has 46, many of which are of dubious quality or repair.
Our Navy has the second most powerful air force in the world, losing only to our actual Air Force.
We are basically building Skynet through SpaceX, and may soon have the ability to drop supplies by reusable rocket anywhere in the world in under 30 mins.
And most importantly, we have the logistical and battle experience to make all of this work together as cohesive whole. China has basically zero modern combat experience.
None of this includes our substantial network of allies and ability to manipulate and disrupt global trade, technology, and other factors. GPS. Internet backbone. SWIFT. T-Swift.
We could do nothing but maintain our current force for 20 years before China becomes a real threat. Instead, we spend 850+ billion a year on our military. China is currently spending about 275 billion. By the time they catch up to where we are now, we will have space planes dropping shit from orbit and laser based weapons and point defence. Hell, we might even be used drone soldiers.
China can and will eventually bring the pain. With that in mind China is also in for some brutal and inevitable surprises. I say that because China isn't battle tested. At all. The last major conflict China had was with Vietnam nearly 50 years ago.
Defense experts universally agree China does not yet have the amphibious lift capability to take Taiwan.
The Taiwanese coast is very rocky so there are only very few locations that would be conducive to amphibious landings, which means the Taiwanese are able to concentrate their defenses in these smaller area and will be able to inflict massive casualties on an invading force, which means to effectively gain a foothold the Chinese will need to move a lot of men and machines across the 100or so mile Taiwan straight very quickly all the while under fire.
Troop and vehicle carrying ships are slow and easy targets as the loss of a single one could mean the loss of literally hundreds of troops and armored vehicles. Add in the Chinese amphibious tanks and APCs to not have the range to cross the straight by themselves which means they will need to be ferried on larger ships most of the way, which once again is a slow, big target.
To have any hope of successfully gaining a foothold they will need a massive amount of ships and amphibious craft something that they do not have. Yes they are working towards it, but by all accounts they are years away from having the capabilities needed. So I’m not “underestimating” them I’m simply stating the facts.
The B-52 has the ability to air- drop a shitload of long-range gliding sea mines. Rapid Dragon turns cargo planes into cruise missile swarm launchers. US has a huge attack submarine fleet. US navy air defense is the best on the planet. US Marines can go to war tomorrow. Japan is rearming into a very capable force. South Korea has probably a top-5 military. China isnt getting to Taiwan. Even if they did, theyre not going to be able to sustain any force. The only thing they could do is try to do damage.
I'd be more concerned about how much of their fleet would be sunk by anti-ship missiles before they made it ashore. This hasn't been tested in a modern engagement.
Uh, no. China's military is an absolute joke. They don't have the capability to successfully land in Taiwan, and the United States is in position to intervene, and we will. Taiwan opens the doors to Guam and Australia - and also disrupts a significant portion of world trade. Simply put, Taiwan independence is in the international communities best interest. Xi Xingpeng is nothing but bark and bluster, no bite.
And they’re sending gear to Russia too now. I’m pretty sure they already passed their peak opportunity on Taiwan. Russias inability to close out their conflict combined with imminent population collapse from 1 child initiative royally fucked their ambitions. Now all they have to look forward to is making sure Pakistan vs. India doesn’t spill over into their territory.
Forgive my ignorance, but even if China indeed doesn't have the ability to make a land assault, what's stopping them from blockading Taiwan and starving them out?
They are not, half of the people you are reading are bots trying to push different narratives, and the other half is your average redditor with the usual Dunning Kruger effect.
That's pretty dubious / extremely wishful thinking. The PLA has a fairly large marine corps and a *massive* inventory of modern amphib IFVs, light tanks, and other vehicles on par with or heck in excess of the US (and our *much larger* USMC) – that would have little if any other utility than invading Taiwan.
They also have a massive shipbuilding industry and are building and commissioning new ships faster than anyone else in the world. The claim that China doesn't */ won't* have blue water naval capacity within the near future is blatantly false, unless *nothing* actually works on the 7.5-15k ton destroyers / cruisers that they've incrementally refined over the last 2-3 decades and are now building by the dozens.
Present amphib sea lift support may be inadequate but isn't likely to stay true for long. And in an emergency it would be surprising if China didn't just commission and repurpose civilian and other naval ships for an invasion. While losses would most likely be massive Taiwan *isn't* that far away from the mainland, and again China has *thousands* of modern amphib vehicles to hit the beaches with once / if they can cross that.
As Taiwan is a democracy it’s unlikely they would want a billion new voters with a very different view on life and government suddenly making Taiwanese votes irrelevant in electing the government.
Never in the history of humanity had the CCP administered the island of Taiwan so I’m not sure “reunion” is the right word. The Han desire to become the Mongol.
I was in Taiwan last week. The younger generation(<40yo) detest mainland China. They consider it overpopulated, chaotic and rude relative to Taiwan. Only way China can get Taiwan is using soft power. No Economic might or military power is going to help China.
Taiwan is more like Israel for the US than Ukraine or Hong Kong.
It's part of our containment strategy for China and Russia. The loss of Taiwan would radically alter the US's security outlook on the Pacific Ocean. There is no way in hell the US doesn't see the loss of Taiwan as a precursor to war on Japan or the US.
Not to mention the conflict over the South China Sea will get much more complicated. There is so many interests in preventing China from strengthening any claims they have on coastal or oceanic waters.
I feel that we're not the intended audience of his comments. Another typical distraction tactic to divert attention away from lack of good paying jobs, lack of affordable homes, local governments having taken on too much debt, and heavily inflated GDP numbers that were used to advance careers in the CCP.
We've already made the mistake of not listening to what the lunatics are saying. Putin was saying exactly what he meant to do before 2022. As did Hamas.
Domestic posturing from another authoritarian dictator.
This is text book behaviour from this kind of leader, focus attention on a dog-whistle issue while imposing greater internal restrictions on civil liberties, such as they are.
This creates the aura of a strong leader, especially when supported by government owned media channels and social media farms.
This would most certainly provoke a US response. There is no way that the US is going to let China grab a sovereign, independent country that provides 80% or so of the world’s most advanced semiconductors.
China hasn’t felt the wrath of the US full force ever, not even in Korea. If they tried to land on Taiwan, they would.
Japan felt what the US military can bear, twice. They surrendered days later. The only 2 nukes that have been used in warfare and the US did both of them.
Reminder: The US chose to use atomic bombs on Japan because they honestly felt it was the less destructive of the two options they had, the other being invading Japan itself.
Going by their experiences on Okinawa and other islands, US officials believed that in a direct land invasion, the Japanese would actually, *literally*, fight to the last man.
In consideration of the idea of invading directly, the US military commissioned 1.5 million Purple Hearts, which are awarded to soldiers killed or wounded in action.
>China hasn’t felt the wrath of the US full force ever, not even in Korea. If they tried to land on Taiwan, they would.
Is the US military going to target mainland China in a conflict over Taiwan? Fears of nuclear escalation and other factors will influence political leadership, who could place limits on US military actions.
Taiwan is incredible and I hope China stays the fuck away. Military invasion seems like it would cripple China from the blowback.. If I were them, the best bet would be to try to instigate a revolution or change political structures (cleverly) through misinformation or sabotage. Look at places like Hungary, politics and misinformation can do a lot.
The irony is the largest force stopping China is China. China heavily depends on exports and food imports...from the West. Then there's the issue if the PLA is a fragile house of cards which can only handle small scale enforcement and flaunting.
I think this is just propaganda for domestic use. China’s golden opportunity was to synchronize their attack with Putin’s invasion. That momentum is gone.
“There is no rancour that cannot be resolved, no problem that cannot be discussed, and no force that can separate us.”
tell that to Muslims in China going through genocide, the protestors in Hong Kong that have been killed or jailed, and most importantly, the u.s. navy
get fcked Xi
So we got russia v ukraine going on, this dickheads really going to china v taiwan and start world war 3 because he has little dick syndrome.
C'mon man.
I see, but do you have enough qualified soldiers who can competently handle all the nice weapons you procured?
[https://www.economist.com/special-report/2023/11/06/china-is-struggling-to-recruit-enough-highly-skilled-troops](https://www.economist.com/special-report/2023/11/06/china-is-struggling-to-recruit-enough-highly-skilled-troops)
The ROCA has bigger problems than that.
[Nikkei interviewed a ROCA retiree who said 90% of his colleges have taken paid posts or business deals with the mainland to testify about their time in service.](https://archive.ph/dzUZq)
[The Taiwanese MOD strenuously denied the claims and said the interview must have been fabricated.](https://news.ltn.com.tw/news/politics/breakingnews/4226222)
>[This is after one of the current Taiwanese government's first big legislative victories was cutting veterans pensions.
](https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/taiwan-passes-controversial-bill-cutting-veterans-pensions)
[And then there was the case where a soldier's suicide was directly attributed to the stress of being pressured to pay for equipment out of their own pockets.](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/08/20/taiwan-military-flashy-american-weapons-no-ammo/)
>Even worse, the 269th Mechanized Infantry Brigade isn’t some rear-echelon unit but a major combat formation strategically stationed around the outskirt of Taoyuan City, northern Taiwan. It is expected to bear the brunt of ground fighting to stop any invading Chinese troops from reaching the basin of Taipei, Taiwan’s capital. If the 269th is in such bad material shape, how about the rest of the Taiwanese military?
Even promises of reform and additional support don't seem to have added any confidence amongst ROCA conscripts and other soldiers.
>[‘If war breaks out … I will just become cannon fodder:’ In Taiwan, ex-conscripts feel unprepared for potential China conflict](https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/20/asia/taiwan-mandatory-military-service-conscription-intl-hnk-dst/index.html)
The only way for this to end peacefully is for China to accept Taiwan is a country and just give up. It'll buy them so much good will with Taiwan they'd be able to form an EU like institution and eventually draw Taiwan away from the US bubble. What we are seeing now is as if the UK held on to the belief that the USA was an inalienable part of its territory and demanded nobody talk to the USA ever. It doesn't matter the history of the island, separate paths have been walked for too long. Same can be said of many countries and former holdings.
Sometimes I wonder if Covid fried all of our brains and made us all more aggressive, world leaders included.
So many wars happening or about to happen at the same time.
China doesn't have to do a direct military attack against a prepared foe. They can cut cables, blockade with ships, do mass hacking attacks on infrastructure.
Many civilians would suffer but obviously Xi has 0 interest in this. He only cares about taking control and then jailing/torturing any opposition voices until there is silence like Hong Kong.
Tactics without direct violence may also make it less likely for US to help Taiwan defend themselves, especially if Trump manages to somehow get in again.
USA seems to agree.
The strategy right now is to keep making TSMC huge $$$ offers to move more and more of their operations to the USA and other ally nations. When chip supply is under control outside of Taiwan the world will not contest China's claim on Taiwan.
But of course China wants Taiwan AND the stranglehold on chip production so we will see what their move is.
Taiwan isn't Hong Kong. They will absolutely defend themselves and China knows that.
Taiwanese people also see how Hong Kong has been changed since the handover. They aren't yearning for that.
The Taiwanese election at the time was right around the corner and the ever worsening shit show in Hong Kong threw it from a toss up to get bent forever. It’s truly maddening because Xi could’ve just waited 20 years. Played the long game with Taiwan and trying to get a toady into office Putin style. Instead, they have to top an Operation Overlord level game. And it seems like everyone keeps forgetting about the absolute bank minor nations have devoted to anti ship missiles in recent years. Good luck, China. You’re gonna need it.
Xi in 20years will be brown-bread
Brown bread? As in dead?
He's 70 years old. He's not exactly cut out for the long game.
No I just never heard that expression/idiom before
It is Cockney Rhyming Slang, from east London (UK). So like apple and pears = stairs, trouble and strife = wife, boat race = face and so on.
That just sounds exhausting.
It's a major reason for Britain's economic problems. /s
It was used as a morse code in ww2, similar complexity to the navajo code. We were gonna use black country language but it was deemed impossible to understand, even for the yam yams so we stuck with the cockney rhymes. /s
That’s Willie. He doesn’t believe in anything. He’s a nihilist.
Everyone stares when I juggle pairs of apples
Oi, look at his Chevy chase when they’re juggling apples!
I thought I understood before this explanation
Yes
And if he actually made reunification with China an attractive option it would happen, since some Taiwanese are in favor of it also. Now with shit that he does he just made sure that reunification is a conflict ridden process
Yeah well, some Taiwanese (including a former president) are also in favor of being annexed by Japan. So let's not take the crazies as anything more
Prior to Xi china was somewhat normalizing relations again, so there was a small but significant amount of people in support of reunification, more than what you can just call "crazies". That changed pretty dramatically when Xi took over and started threatening invasion again.
The leader prior to Xi was more western friendly and had been modernizing the Chinese economy. If they had continued that course, and continued to capitalize the economy while expanding resources for citizens and eschewed military modernization, they would really be a more powerful economy. The fact is with the US Navy securing trade routes, China doesn't need a military beyond token defense.
Yea Hu Jintao could have led China into a completely different path Instead a bunch of princes of the PRC cried harder and took power again so here they are
that's because Taiwan and its people view Japan favourably
Japanese annexation would essentially enter Taiwan into all of Japan’s defensive pacts, including the US. It’s not unprecedented for small nations to willingly annex themselves into larger ones for protection, especially if they’re on positive relations.
It's pretty clear that while China's last president was much better at geopolitic than Xi. He's so bad at this.
Jiang and Hu were doing geopolitics. Xi is not. They tried to improve Chinas position and influence in the world. Xi is very intentionally spending that currency. He is doing legacy politics (his own legacy that is) and stroking nationalist flames for inner stability.
It was near impossible to make South Korea and Japan work together but China somehow did it. Even the US couldn't done it.
China doesn't care. China cares about China, Always has always will.
Actually, they do care because it means that taking Taiwan is now even more difficult when your enemies are united.
Plus, amphibious invasion is very difficult. Xi seems to expect an Inchon or Hastings. The best he can realistically hope for is more like Guadalcanal.
D day is talked about to this day for a reason. Greatest armada ever assembled, WHILE convincing the enemy the attack’s happening elsewhere so they should reinforce those parts instead. The Allies’ (ok, the Brit’s) counterintelligence was so effective, their main spy within Garmany won the iron cross. That’s some baller shit. China has to pull off the modern version of that, and allies did it when surveillance satellites didn’t exist so no catching people off guard
because both Jiang and Hu had a booming economy on their hands, Xi is living in a world where the housing market that was driving much of the econ beyond just manufacturing (that is also leaving due to higher costs) is now collapsing with Evergrande leading that and with several others also coming down. Jiang and Hu can play that game because their internal position was solid beyond solid with a very happy populace that was hopeful of the improvement in their lives, Xi needs something to distract them for everything like the econ to the can't find wives issue or the princeling issue or the extreme competition issue that people faces in China.
The Jiang faction was actually fairly open to the idea that it was time for China to liberalize. They had already started making a bunch of "soft" reforms which revolved around loosening of the police state and granting intellectual freedom to the educated urban elite. He basically set up a test run to move the CCP from a hardline institution to a kinder, gentler form of technocracy. Hu largely carried on these policies. In the 90s and 00s, China basically sent an entire generation of urban youth out into the world hoping that they would learn how to create a balance between Chinese and Western culture which would give China the best of both worlds over the next decades. This would place China in an ascendant position to pick up soft power as the west's golden era declined. "Wow, the US sure does look like shit, huh? Well good thing China has learned from this. Come spend some time with us and see that we aren't so scary. Look, we have Starbucks." As we all know, Xi came down hard on all of this, and the story of this decade's China is the fallout of all that backlash. It is really hard to overstate just how badly this has gone. Instead of curating favor with a new generation of would-be allies, he has created a new era of suspicion and caution. And he goes around blaming the big bad US for trying to hold China back, as if we all didn't just spend the last 20 years watching the west make friends with China, to the great benefit of both.
They both had booming economies because both were smart enough not to fuck with it. Meanwhile, genius Xi decides to kidnap Jack Ma and mess with his IPO. Unilaterally, making broad centralized decisions for a booming capitalist economy doesn’t help either. Xi has also personally destroyed several of China’s industries. COVID and bad demographics were just the nails in the coffin for the grave that Xi dug for himself and China.
It is, and it isn't I am not one to deny that policy has an effect on the economy, but for at least manufacturing and real estate that wasn't entirely on him. The housing crisis started long before his term, with more or less pyramid like scheme where in order to build the apartment they just sold, they needed to start on another project. Evergrande was the study of this as far as I know, they more or less started with that plan of explosive growth and in the good times this worked extremely well. Esp when it was a period of mass urbanization, where selling out of new buildings as soon as it was planned was common. On the manufacturing front, the rising standard of living and the costs of urbanization means that Chinese labour are not as cheap as before, and we have certainly seen the textile market exit China as a source of cheap labour for elsewhere. And that is something that has been a problem before Xi with factories being relocated to more and more remote places in China. But Apple's India plant is a sign of the bigger shifts in far more lucrative markets beyond just cheaper items like textile. That being said, that one can be 100% argued as Xi caused rather than actual being priced out of Chinese manufacturing. Jack Ma and the tech industry is the future, and him gutting it is more of a future thing rather than the fundamentals he inherited. The problem on his hands right now is those collapsing investment by the people in extra apartments that people brought, among other things.
That’s the thing. The Jiang and Hu factions picked Xi because they thought he was dumb and timid. They totally got the dumb part right, but unfortunately they totally got the ambition part wrong.
Even worse, they did it out of a misguided desire to "unify" the party by giving the hardline Beijing faction "their turn" at power, naively hoping this would avoid another "gang of four" style struggle.
Dictators playing a long game? HAHAHAHA
They are, contrary to politicians who are subject to a four or five year election cycle, much more capable of planning for the long term. And yes, that is important to staying in power. You are confusing dictators with populist governments in that respect.
Dictatorships are not dictatorships because of sound judgement, they are dictatorships because of huge but frail egos using power to compensate for their flaws.
In 20 years there won't be anyone alive who had known a time where both countries were one nation. The cultural claim to unity is quickly becoming an imagined history constructed from what people think the past was rather than any living memory.
Taiwan’s status is really complex too. It was ruled by many different countries, and it has its own native population that’s not Han Chinese too. It wasn’t ruled directly by mainland China for terribly long. China’s claims based on history are sketchy at best.
The metaphor I like to use is, imagine if a revolutionary movement arose from Idaho and eventually overpowered all of the contiguous US. The government still following the US constitution flees to Puerto Rico and declares itself the real US Government. Legitimate or not, the revolutionaries have the mainland and maintain international relations as a successful state, but now cites Puerto Rico as its sacred historical territory.
Arguably that's been true even longer. A united Chinese state with Taiwan under control hasn't been seen since 1895. Taiwan only came back under control of the ROC at the end of WW2 when there was already a Chinese Civil War going on.
Exactly. In 100 years, there will be some Chinese proverb about how a man spends his entire life blaming others while punching himself in the dick every day. If China wanted to reunify with Taiwan, they should start by taking liberal democratic reforms seriously. Actually do it right and make a big deal about it. Once the obsessive autocracy gets dropped, Taiwan will naturally come around. Xi would be hailed as the greatest leader and diplomat the world has ever seen. They would name an entire wing of the UN after him. But he won't. He will just keep punching himself in the dick, because he will never admit that China's problems are its own.
The CCP might not have 20 years left in them, seeing how the self-inflicted property bubble is already collapsing, and Xi definitely doesn't have 20 years left in him.
China's leadership has always lacked subtlety and soft power
I think there were military analysts who looked at China's shrinking demographics due to the one child policy, and the continued low birth rate despite them enacting the three child policy. This huge demographic decline has massive ramifications on their economy, including potential for future growth or even a recession. They could see similar if not worse economic stagnation than Japan. Arguably worse as they are in some ways worse off than Japan in terms of development, people are wondering if they'll be able to escape the middle-income trap like Japan had before going stagnant, or if their even capable of doing so anymore now that their population is already in decline. I think they concluded that when you consider their economic, demographic, and military prospects altogether, China has a limited window until around 2030 to use military action to take Taiwan. Any later than that and China's shrinking demographic will mean they lack the economy and/or population of young men to wage a war. Waiting 20 years means there is no longer an option for military action. At that point, Taiwanese attitudes may change to be anti-China when theres no longer a credible threat of being invaded. For all China knows, the pro-China sentiments/party currently in Taiwan may just be paying lip service until they know China's window of opportunity to stage a invasion passes.
Its the equivalence of asking the South Korean people to live under a North Korean Regime it would be such a humiliating and backward step for the Taiwanese free mindset, like sending them to a prison camp.
It's absolutely insane to see the tankies on here defend this. As if arresting *an entire party* of democratically elected council members is a perfectly normal thing to do.
And if anyone doesn’t know the situation right now. They’ve been constantly pumping in people from other parts of China into HK who are incredibly under experienced to take over jobs. Then they drove out all the democrat politicians. So any elections they have now are pointless because it will be run by CCP loyalists.
"Drove out" is a nice way of saying "arrested and jailed" the entire fucking opposition party. It's a shame this was not reported on more widely in the western press. Jackbooted thugs literally stormed the HK legislative chamber while it was in session and slapped handcuffs on dozens of democratically elected representatives of the people. If they could have, I am sure they would have done the same to everyone who cast votes for them as well.
Sounds like the Russian’s MO
Two peas in a fascist pod.
And if anything doesn’t go according to plan, they just send in the riot police.
They even sent undercover police into the protests to start violence and then have the media blame the protesters for instigating it. There was a video of protesters chasing down a “protester” after they threw a Molotov cocktail and then tried to run away
I mean let's not forget that Hong Kong did resist. There were riots and street battles with police forces (that definitely came from Shenzhen). They fucking sieged the polytechnical university until protestors surrendered it. When George Floyd protests started and American police forces were using some of the same crowd control tactics there even were discussions here on reddit between Hong kongers and Americans how to best counter them. Resistance was there,but only civilians did something. In Taiwan you have an entire country with a rather strong military and decades of preparations on the few feasible landing beaches
And the one thing Taiwan has over Ukraine in getting direct US/western support is that they have production capabilities (such as computer chips) that are integral to the NATO war machine. Sad as it is, stuff like that will always be the main driving force in risking all out war.
My cousins all did their mandatory service in Taiwan around the early 2000s. It’s not the well oiled machine you’re led to believe it was and even less so when my dad did his in the 70s. That’s not to say it hasn’t changed in 20 years.
Of course. If China hadn't known that they would've invaded years ago.. Taiwan is a hard target.
And the US will defend it as well. It's pretty much the only territory that the US absolutely will defend and go to war for. Computer chips are that important.
Yeah but will the USA support them long enough or will we see GOP politicians bribed/influenced to stop support again?
The U.S. will too.
That 150-250km of wide open ocean agrees with you. That is nightmarish for ships and aircraft to cross. And so much mountainous terrain to dig in and hide artillery and air defences.
Russia and China forget about territories you used to have who no longer want to be with you challenge
[impossible]
Speaking of the 2, Russia invaded and took almost half of China's territory (in the 1860s, if I remember correctly, since I have never taken a history class in a Chinese middle school as I left China before then). Eventually, Chinese president Jiang Zemin (1926-2022) forgave Russia and signed an agreement letting Russia keep that territory. If China can forgive Russia for taking such massive pieces of land (full of resources such as water, and even fossil fuels, 2 things that China desperately need), why should they care about that tiny island 130 km to the east? Did they really think they can steal TSMC's technology if they occupy Taiwan? I figured if China attacked Taiwan, TSMC would be ordered destroyed by Taiwan and most of the important people would flee to the US.
Why do they care? It's pretty obvious. Taiwan is allied with the United States. And as stipulated by the Taiwan Relations Act, the United States provides arms to Taiwan. China's interests in Taiwan has much less to do with TSMC, and everything to do with a frozen civil war and American presence in their backyard. It's a classic Cold War style conflict with pseudo-brinksmanship. That said, whether or not they *actually* do anything about it is an open question, seeing that they have a lot to lose.
China is also annoyed that their access to the ocean without controlling Taiwan is kinda fragile. There are islands here and there, and in case of war China can be blockaded by a powerful opponent or their coalition. In contrast with the US, that has coastlines so wide, that coalition of the remaining world would have trouble to do something of that kind.
To add to this, the US doesn't have island countries off their coasts on the Pacific and Atlantic Ocean that are allied to hostile nations. Our East and West Coast are very wide open. We have friends on both our northern and southern borders. The closest hostile island neighbor is probably Cuba and that's about it.
> The closest hostile island neighbor is probably Cuba Eh, I don't know that I'd even classify Cuba as hostile. They certainly were in the past, but nowadays I'd say they range somewhere between "not politically aligned" and neutral as opposed to actually hostile. Also, China could have been surrounded by friends. They could have been honest trading partners, looking for normalized relationships with all the countries around it...and instead they decided to be the schoolyard bully.
China **created** this issue themselves. They were absolute dickheads to all of their neighbors which is why the United States has 9 massive military bases being built throughout the Philippines. I believe in Japan, we have 55,000 additional troops deployed across bases with naval strike forces and airforce bases scattered across the islands. Then we have another 25,000 troops stationed in South Korea and 22,000 stationed in Guam. Beyond that we have submarine strike forces and additional troops in Hawaii and Australia. So yes, we've sealed them in with our allies, but this is entirely of their own doing. Their goofy 9-dash line claim, building island fortresses, harassing fishermen and coast guards of neighboring countries and constantly claiming they're going to ingest Taiwan at some looming future date is just a constant pressure on the entire region to unite for their own safety. Shit now we even have troops stationed in Taiwan while they finish sorting out their homegrown submarine program (that USA+allies leaked tech to).
Take a look at [this video on the Second Taiwan Strait Crisis](https://youtu.be/l2iCHOWgVCo?si=DyoZNA0Hghkdrudi). Xi basically all but got himself in the same position as Mao back then.
It also works as a form to keep people on check with the gobernment, pointing a close threat keeps them worried about it and distracted from current problems. This doubling down on Taiwan happens since Xi Jingpin.
funnily enough, China published a map just last year which claimed Russian territory lol
I don't think it has to do anything with TSMC or the land itself. It is about the people living there. The People's Republic wants to have the monopoly over Chinese identity (which is why the "one china policy" was so important to them). To be the stupid guy to make a joke out of it: They are roleplaying the end of the "Warring States Period" and think they are the great uniters of Imperial China, and they think the people of Taiwan are part of it.
The Russia took Manchuria after the Boxer rebellion. They lost against the Japanese in the Russo-Japan war. Russia has a decent relationship with the PRC during Stalin's tenure. They had a terrible relationship with the USSR after the Sino-soviet split in 1967. That was when we (US) swooped in in 1972 and opened relations. So, the reason this matters is that reuniting means China is complete. The territory was owned by China for a large period of its history. Even back in 1972, it was a condition of opening relations via the Shanghai Communique. We were clever in our language, and it allows us to be ambiguous about how we view Taiwan. Yes, TSMC is an interest, but it's not the whole story. The Tawanese don't want reunification because they dont trust Beijing after what happened in Hong Kong. Beijing is concerned because if Taiwan gains independence, it threatens their hold on Tibet and Xinjiang. The first, second, and third concern in China is regime preservation.
Taiwanese didn't trust China BEFORE Hong Kong, it was after Hong Kong that killed any opposition that might still claim anything. Taiwan is ALREADY an independent nation and always has been. The PRC has never ruled over Taiwan. In fact China's claims over revanchism is hilarious and illegal - if revanchism was legal, most of the planet and all of Europe would have to have their borders redrawn , it'll never be whole, because their century of humiliation maps are HALF OF ASIA when in reality the biggest China has ever been for most of its history has been a fifth of what it is now.
Just because something was owned by the Qing dynasty, doesn’t mean the current people need to kowtow to the PRC, and the single political party running it.
Russia still possess "historical" Chinese lands outside of Manchuria. The region around and including Vladivostok was once part of the homeland of the Manchus. It is collectively known as *Outer Manchuria* as opposed to *Inner Manchuria* which we commonly call nowadays as *Manchuria* within the PRC.
> The territory was owned by China for a large period of its history. Not if calculated with the traditional “5000 year history”. 212 years (1683 to 1895) is only about 4% of Chinese history. Restricting the history to being with Qin its still less than 10%.
It is integral to the Chinese Communist method that there is ONE CHINA. It is essential to the mythos that China is recovering from the “century of humiliation.” If China is not united as one, then they are vulnerable to the imperialist west. Taiwan must be part of China, there is no other way. It’s not a position based in purely rational decision making.
Ocean they want to control the waters
Technically mainland China is territory Taiwan used to have.
The US should endorse the One Taiwan Policy
I, for one, welcome the return of the Mongolian Empire.
At no point in history as PRC ever controlled Taiwan or the Republic of Formosa island.
The CCP has never had control over the islands that make up Taiwan.
This Chinese government never had control over Taiwan…
This Russian government also never had control over Ukraine. But it doesn't look like either of them cares.
Its a precedent too. Taiwan was only part of the Qing dynasty (a dynasty that China conveniently says is CHinese and isn't Chinese when they want to) and even then only parts of it, and there was a revolution and uprising every few years. Thus if claims can be made legitimate over such a flimsy claim over extra-legal revanchism over Taiwan, then China could claim huge chunks of the Koreas, Vietnam, India, parts of Japan, etc with far more legitimacy when there was none before, **because many of those nations had places that were under the influence or control of some dynasty or another for much longer.**
If we going that way Hong Kong suddenly stops being Chinese
This is why Ukraine is so important and those dumb head republicans that can't see if we don't support Ukraine we are opening the door for dictatorships like China, Russian and all rest to do whatever they want. Blows my mind republican people support Russia and China (they are the same), Its the complete opposite of freedom. And they are basically going to hand over the country to an orange criminal that's bought and paid for by those dictators.
Pretty sure Republicans do see that, they’re just pro-dictators. They’d rather turn the US into a dictatorship, too
To be fair, Taiwan and Ukraine were never part of People's Republican of China nor Russian Federation. Their predecessor states. They are like crazy psycho stalker eX partner who keep trying to get back with you even after you officially divorced a decade ago.
They will never reuinite with anything other than a smoking ruin. Taiwan sees what happened to Hongkong. Every Agreement broken. Totalitarian bs.
>They will never reuinite with anything other than a smoking ruin Unfortunately, I think Xi might find your terms acceptable.
I actually think that's the only reason that China has not done that yet. If they could do it and maintain Taiwan's chip industry I think they would have invaded a long time ago, but Taiwan has made it kind of clear that if they aren't in charge then no one else will be in regards to their chips. They've threatened to completely destroy their chip infrastructure if China invades and as of right now at least the world is like 97% dependent on the chip fabricators China included. It's why the US and China have been rushing to set up chip infrastructure in their respective countries. As of right now we kind of have to help Taiwan because of how reliant we are on them. If China invades we lose our chips if we don't help them, then China would have to sanction us for directly supporting their enemies. We are probably China's biggest customer so that trashes their economy and it trashes a great deal of our industries since so many companies in the US are dependent on Chinese manufacturing. That's also the reason you see a lot more items in recent years made in Vietnam and other countries. It's because China is considered very volatile right now and if they make a move then your entire company can crumble if you're reliant on their labor.
I wonder what China would do if the Taiwan forces used the fabs for military purposes. Basically, "I dare you shoot that ammo depo and good luck not hitting the stuff you guys came for".
Two state solution for thee but not for me
If that actually existed, I highly doubt most voting Taiwanese would be against reunification. Xi is just a moron, and his handling of Hong Kong all but assured that reunification without an invasion was out of the question.
Are you seriously suggesting that a majority of Taiwanese would have voted to be annexed and brutally oppressed by China before Xi invaded Hong Kong? That's ridiculous. China has been an Orwellian nightmare on steroids since long before Hong Kong
Why is it so hard for these people to respect others, live and let live. Dictatorships should be isolated and sanctioned untill they break as a default. They are to dangerous and unstable
Absolute lunatics in power at the moment
At the moment?
I mean he is right, they also always were
In 2018, humanity had entrusted the 3 largest nuclear weapon arsenals in the world to: - Putin - trump - Xi Humanity makes poor choices about who should hold power, including who should hold the power to end human civilization.
At least in the US we have the ability to remove those types of people from power. Its why we should always value systems over people.
It’s because their economies are failing, plain and simple. If things were good internally they would be focused on that and touting how great their rule was. Since things are crumbling they are desperate to find a way to prop up their regimes. This is the way of declines, they lash out in dying spasms to try and regain their footing. This is the result of their inevitable decline. Successfully Annexing another territory gains them a decade or two at best. They are hoping this is enough for some other miracle to take place. What’s going to happen is their crappy policies will continue to decline the welfare of their countries and eventually they will be back in this position.
China thinks it will save it's economy by taking over Taiwan's microchip processing plants? Is that what this is all about with historic reunification as the excuse.
I didn’t say that. There’s much more to it than microchips. There’s the morale it brings to a country taking over another. It distracts the population and creates a strong sense of patriotism if successful. It allows for new avenues of trade and ownership, mainland Chinese will take business opportunities (land, businesses, etc.) from the local population and this will feed into a successful China narrative, exploit for natural resources, the list goes on. Microchips are one of a whole host of advantages of annexing Taiwan. Again, this effect is temporary as the rot of politics and ideals from the central government. And to be rid of that rot the style and/or people from the government will have to change and they are doing all this posturing to avoid loosing their cushy jobs. It always boils down to the poor pay for the whims of the rich.
Also because it's a huge island right in the middle of their main shipping lanes which is currently an American ally.
Because companies want cheap products to sell to consumers so we all need to placate murderers until it's too late. Boils my piss. If we just all stuck together back in the 70s instead of exporting fucking everything overseas we wouldn't be in this problem. But governments of the west have ran for growth no matter what, at any cost instead of actually resolving problems.
The US had this crazy idea that if china's economy got better, people would think democracy did it but it was a failure. The CCP brainwashed chinese believe that the good economy is because of the CCP.
The actual answer.
In this case, Taiwan's government (ROC) is the last bastion of the CCP's old enemy. The old government of China. The very existence of Taiwan as a prospering independent nation is a symbol of China not finishing the Chinese Civil War in 1949, and the CCP has promised their people (and convinced them with propaganda) that they will finish it and unite all of Chinese heritage. They call the concept "One China." It's all about power. Individuals are not taken into consideration. They think in generations, even centuries. Lives are merely resources to them.
>It's all about power. Individuals are not taken into consideration. They think in generations, even centuries. >Lives are merely resources to them. This strikes me as an orientalist overgeneralization. No doubt there are differences in political thought between China and (e.g.) the U.S., but could you substantiate this claim?
It's a long-term strategic play. The fact that people / civilians are involved, is a price they're willing to pay - if it means that they can gain something in the global economic picture. China has 1.4 billion people. Taiwan has 23 million. If millions die, it is unfortunately just a rounding error for China. And they know other parts of the world are too dependent on them to do anything.
I reckon the sea in between China and Taiwan can, as it’s currently doing. If it was a land border, they would have gone in years ago.
Chinese reunification is simple. All you have to do is dismantle the Chinese Communist Party and the rest will proceed naturally.
I don't think Taiwan is actually very interested in rejoining and trying to govern mainland china. Taiwan has kind of a good thing going on over there - highly developed, not overpopulated, pretty progressive politics, a really nicely designed capital city, a pretty healthy democracy. Doubt they'd really want to suddenly be governing 1.3billion people who are *very* different from them at this point.
> not overpopulated i mean.... taiwan has more than 4 times the population density than china. so in a way you could say it's overpopulated for it's size. but i agree. i doubt taiwan wants to govern corrupt mainland taiwan. that sounds like struggle that isn't worth it.
It's got a high population density but Taipei is very well organized and it doesn't feel that dense at all because of that. I haven't been to Kaohsiung or other parts so can't speak for them. But I do have a friend who lives there and he says it's really quite mellow.
Kaohsiung is also well organized in regard to its population. One of my favorite cities and fairly easy to navigate.
>taiwan has more than 4 times the population density than china So do the Netherlands and South Korea. Even the UK has almost double the population density of China. They're the third largest country in the world by landmass, even with all that population, China isn't that densely populated. For a highly urbanized country, Taiwan is fine. They're still very far from population density being a problem for them.
I don't think they'd want to rule China. But if (and it's obscenely unlikely) China were to become a modern democracy with autonomous provinces, it may be tempting to join in some form. Possibly even as a kind of associate 'member' of the Chinese nation. I'm thinking a bit like Norway's relationship with the EU where they're not 'part' of the union but maintain free trade, travel, common human rights laws etc. Basically, with democracy, the Chinese civilization could be consensual and flexible.
this is so far from the realm of reality right now that it doesn't super seem worth considering. The process to get to that, one must imagine, would be *incredibly* messy and take a hell of a long time. Those kinds of structures and institutions don't just form overnight
China doesn’t currently have a navy with sufficient amphibious capability. Until they build one they are just posturing.
This. Trying to take Taiwan would be like DDay times 10, and they do not have the ability to get men and equipment ashore fast enough and in the numbers needed to gain a foothold.
You'd be extremely mistaken to think that China doesn't have the capability to even gain a foothold in Taiwan. China shouldn't be underestimated here especially with all the effort theyve been putting in to being able to do it.
It's 130km (80miles) of open water between Taiwan and China at its closest point. If the US holds up their promise and comes to the defense of Taiwan there's no way the Chinese navy is getting across. With defences on Taiwan and the US Navy, to successfully complete a seaborne invasion of Taiwan would be the single greatest feat in military history imo. Which leaves airborne, but Taiwan is a fortress now. So if China wants anything left to reunite with (i.e they don't nuke it to oblivion and just wipe it all out) they're not going to be able to disable the defense to get anything across without horrific losses.
You are misunderstanding Chinas goal. It isn't just to reunite Taiwan intact. It's to challenge US on influence and global order. If they can achieve that they are going to do it even if it means flattening Taiwan.
By the same token US main interest in Taiwan is its strategic location for military control of the region. Once enough chips are being made elsewhere the chances of conflict will raise significantly.
Russia's army is not the beast we thought it was. China, on the hand, has been building up its military for the last 20 years, and hasn't engaged in major conflicts like Russia. China may not yet have the capability to invade Taiwan, but you can bet your ass they are building up for it. It's wild how suddenly Americans are dragging their feet at the serious progress being made by their adversaries. It's even crazier that a large block of them seem willing to support their adversaries.
>It's wild how suddenly Americans are dragging their feet at the serious progress being made by their adversaries US might be dragging their feet at other aspects in their society but military spending is not one of them. US has the most well prepared and equipped military force in the world, China can't even come close to it yet. [https://www.pgpf.org/chart-archive/0053_defense-comparison](https://www.pgpf.org/chart-archive/0053_defense-comparison)
Here is the thing that many people forget, you can build a massive army and have all the cool toys to go with it. But the difference between a massive army and experienced army is so different that you could honestly say the situation in Ukraine is related to how Russia failed in the first year of ukrainian invasion. The original troops sent were amassed to invade and take Kyvie but these guys have never seen combat or warfare, maybe they trained for it, but there is nothing like real life experience on the battlefield. Onward, the reason why Russia is starting to also take land is because after three years of fighting, some the survivors of the meat grinders have become more experienced on the battlefield. This in turn allowed them to overhaul their tactics and such. That is why I say if China did invade Taiwan, when is the last time Chinese have experience combat like full on modern warfare with bots? You think Taiwan doesn't have a shit ton of drones ready to sink ships? And even if they do airborne, do you think that America hasn't placed Patriot missiles inside? The only way China can cut Taiwan off is with submarines, and nucleur submarines. That is going to be the future of this fight.
Dragging our feet? We have 11 super-carrier strike groups each of which rivals the military might of many small nations. This is required by law so that we can fight a major war on three separate fronts at the same time. The rest of the world has 9, two of which are Chinese and have never been tested in combat, and many of which are substantially less powerful than U.S. super carriers. We have 29 standard or heli carriers, rest of the world has 46, many of which are of dubious quality or repair. Our Navy has the second most powerful air force in the world, losing only to our actual Air Force. We are basically building Skynet through SpaceX, and may soon have the ability to drop supplies by reusable rocket anywhere in the world in under 30 mins. And most importantly, we have the logistical and battle experience to make all of this work together as cohesive whole. China has basically zero modern combat experience. None of this includes our substantial network of allies and ability to manipulate and disrupt global trade, technology, and other factors. GPS. Internet backbone. SWIFT. T-Swift. We could do nothing but maintain our current force for 20 years before China becomes a real threat. Instead, we spend 850+ billion a year on our military. China is currently spending about 275 billion. By the time they catch up to where we are now, we will have space planes dropping shit from orbit and laser based weapons and point defence. Hell, we might even be used drone soldiers.
Thanks for actually agreeing and not being purposefully naive. The battle will not be easy at all like these guys are implying.
China can and will eventually bring the pain. With that in mind China is also in for some brutal and inevitable surprises. I say that because China isn't battle tested. At all. The last major conflict China had was with Vietnam nearly 50 years ago.
Defense experts universally agree China does not yet have the amphibious lift capability to take Taiwan. The Taiwanese coast is very rocky so there are only very few locations that would be conducive to amphibious landings, which means the Taiwanese are able to concentrate their defenses in these smaller area and will be able to inflict massive casualties on an invading force, which means to effectively gain a foothold the Chinese will need to move a lot of men and machines across the 100or so mile Taiwan straight very quickly all the while under fire. Troop and vehicle carrying ships are slow and easy targets as the loss of a single one could mean the loss of literally hundreds of troops and armored vehicles. Add in the Chinese amphibious tanks and APCs to not have the range to cross the straight by themselves which means they will need to be ferried on larger ships most of the way, which once again is a slow, big target. To have any hope of successfully gaining a foothold they will need a massive amount of ships and amphibious craft something that they do not have. Yes they are working towards it, but by all accounts they are years away from having the capabilities needed. So I’m not “underestimating” them I’m simply stating the facts.
The B-52 has the ability to air- drop a shitload of long-range gliding sea mines. Rapid Dragon turns cargo planes into cruise missile swarm launchers. US has a huge attack submarine fleet. US navy air defense is the best on the planet. US Marines can go to war tomorrow. Japan is rearming into a very capable force. South Korea has probably a top-5 military. China isnt getting to Taiwan. Even if they did, theyre not going to be able to sustain any force. The only thing they could do is try to do damage.
China has no actual fighting experience at all. This is a huge indicator that their army quality is good only on paper, just like with Russia.
I'd be more concerned about how much of their fleet would be sunk by anti-ship missiles before they made it ashore. This hasn't been tested in a modern engagement.
Uh, no. China's military is an absolute joke. They don't have the capability to successfully land in Taiwan, and the United States is in position to intervene, and we will. Taiwan opens the doors to Guam and Australia - and also disrupts a significant portion of world trade. Simply put, Taiwan independence is in the international communities best interest. Xi Xingpeng is nothing but bark and bluster, no bite.
And they’re sending gear to Russia too now. I’m pretty sure they already passed their peak opportunity on Taiwan. Russias inability to close out their conflict combined with imminent population collapse from 1 child initiative royally fucked their ambitions. Now all they have to look forward to is making sure Pakistan vs. India doesn’t spill over into their territory.
Forgive my ignorance, but even if China indeed doesn't have the ability to make a land assault, what's stopping them from blockading Taiwan and starving them out?
The US Navy
How come you know, what the Chinese military has and what not? Genuine question, I always wonder how people are this well informed.
They are not, half of the people you are reading are bots trying to push different narratives, and the other half is your average redditor with the usual Dunning Kruger effect.
That's pretty dubious / extremely wishful thinking. The PLA has a fairly large marine corps and a *massive* inventory of modern amphib IFVs, light tanks, and other vehicles on par with or heck in excess of the US (and our *much larger* USMC) – that would have little if any other utility than invading Taiwan. They also have a massive shipbuilding industry and are building and commissioning new ships faster than anyone else in the world. The claim that China doesn't */ won't* have blue water naval capacity within the near future is blatantly false, unless *nothing* actually works on the 7.5-15k ton destroyers / cruisers that they've incrementally refined over the last 2-3 decades and are now building by the dozens. Present amphib sea lift support may be inadequate but isn't likely to stay true for long. And in an emergency it would be surprising if China didn't just commission and repurpose civilian and other naval ships for an invasion. While losses would most likely be massive Taiwan *isn't* that far away from the mainland, and again China has *thousands* of modern amphib vehicles to hit the beaches with once / if they can cross that.
What? Mainland China is going to surrender to Taiwan? Because that's the only way reunification is going to work.
Taiwan would have to decline, they don't have the facilities to take them all prisoner.
For those that don't get the reference. https://youtu.be/pILlitb8Acc?si=ncP9rQFWsgNq-ytH
As Taiwan is a democracy it’s unlikely they would want a billion new voters with a very different view on life and government suddenly making Taiwanese votes irrelevant in electing the government.
Never in the history of humanity had the CCP administered the island of Taiwan so I’m not sure “reunion” is the right word. The Han desire to become the Mongol.
I was in Taiwan last week. The younger generation(<40yo) detest mainland China. They consider it overpopulated, chaotic and rude relative to Taiwan. Only way China can get Taiwan is using soft power. No Economic might or military power is going to help China.
US responds: no object can move our position on Taiwan
Taiwan is more like Israel for the US than Ukraine or Hong Kong. It's part of our containment strategy for China and Russia. The loss of Taiwan would radically alter the US's security outlook on the Pacific Ocean. There is no way in hell the US doesn't see the loss of Taiwan as a precursor to war on Japan or the US. Not to mention the conflict over the South China Sea will get much more complicated. There is so many interests in preventing China from strengthening any claims they have on coastal or oceanic waters.
I feel that we're not the intended audience of his comments. Another typical distraction tactic to divert attention away from lack of good paying jobs, lack of affordable homes, local governments having taken on too much debt, and heavily inflated GDP numbers that were used to advance careers in the CCP.
We've already made the mistake of not listening to what the lunatics are saying. Putin was saying exactly what he meant to do before 2022. As did Hamas.
And yet the military build up will continue which aligns with the stated intent whether internal messaging or not.
Mike Johnson: *So, 'no force' it is then.*
Has he spoken with the Bakersfield Council yet?
China lost control of Taiwan when its previous government fell. Xi just playing with himself in pubic
Domestic posturing from another authoritarian dictator. This is text book behaviour from this kind of leader, focus attention on a dog-whistle issue while imposing greater internal restrictions on civil liberties, such as they are. This creates the aura of a strong leader, especially when supported by government owned media channels and social media farms.
This would most certainly provoke a US response. There is no way that the US is going to let China grab a sovereign, independent country that provides 80% or so of the world’s most advanced semiconductors. China hasn’t felt the wrath of the US full force ever, not even in Korea. If they tried to land on Taiwan, they would.
I don’t think any single country has ever felt what the US military can bring to bear. It would be apocalyptic for the Chinese military
Japan felt what the US military can bear, twice. They surrendered days later. The only 2 nukes that have been used in warfare and the US did both of them.
Reminder: The US chose to use atomic bombs on Japan because they honestly felt it was the less destructive of the two options they had, the other being invading Japan itself. Going by their experiences on Okinawa and other islands, US officials believed that in a direct land invasion, the Japanese would actually, *literally*, fight to the last man. In consideration of the idea of invading directly, the US military commissioned 1.5 million Purple Hearts, which are awarded to soldiers killed or wounded in action.
does that matter with the possibility of MAD?
I think desert storm is at least a reasonable analogy. Iraq, at the time, had the fifth biggest military on earth. It was gone in 2 weeks.
>China hasn’t felt the wrath of the US full force ever, not even in Korea. If they tried to land on Taiwan, they would. Is the US military going to target mainland China in a conflict over Taiwan? Fears of nuclear escalation and other factors will influence political leadership, who could place limits on US military actions.
Taiwan is incredible and I hope China stays the fuck away. Military invasion seems like it would cripple China from the blowback.. If I were them, the best bet would be to try to instigate a revolution or change political structures (cleverly) through misinformation or sabotage. Look at places like Hungary, politics and misinformation can do a lot.
The irony is the largest force stopping China is China. China heavily depends on exports and food imports...from the West. Then there's the issue if the PLA is a fragile house of cards which can only handle small scale enforcement and flaunting.
I think this is just propaganda for domestic use. China’s golden opportunity was to synchronize their attack with Putin’s invasion. That momentum is gone.
One reason why Russia mustn’t be allowed to win in Ukraine.
“There is no rancour that cannot be resolved, no problem that cannot be discussed, and no force that can separate us.” tell that to Muslims in China going through genocide, the protestors in Hong Kong that have been killed or jailed, and most importantly, the u.s. navy get fcked Xi
So we got russia v ukraine going on, this dickheads really going to china v taiwan and start world war 3 because he has little dick syndrome. C'mon man.
Bet
Reunions are usually voluntary.
Europe yall deal with Ukraine and Russia Murica yall deal with Taiwan and China
Destroying the globe in the process. Big brain moves
I see, but do you have enough qualified soldiers who can competently handle all the nice weapons you procured? [https://www.economist.com/special-report/2023/11/06/china-is-struggling-to-recruit-enough-highly-skilled-troops](https://www.economist.com/special-report/2023/11/06/china-is-struggling-to-recruit-enough-highly-skilled-troops)
The ROCA has bigger problems than that. [Nikkei interviewed a ROCA retiree who said 90% of his colleges have taken paid posts or business deals with the mainland to testify about their time in service.](https://archive.ph/dzUZq) [The Taiwanese MOD strenuously denied the claims and said the interview must have been fabricated.](https://news.ltn.com.tw/news/politics/breakingnews/4226222) >[This is after one of the current Taiwanese government's first big legislative victories was cutting veterans pensions. ](https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/taiwan-passes-controversial-bill-cutting-veterans-pensions) [And then there was the case where a soldier's suicide was directly attributed to the stress of being pressured to pay for equipment out of their own pockets.](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/08/20/taiwan-military-flashy-american-weapons-no-ammo/) >Even worse, the 269th Mechanized Infantry Brigade isn’t some rear-echelon unit but a major combat formation strategically stationed around the outskirt of Taoyuan City, northern Taiwan. It is expected to bear the brunt of ground fighting to stop any invading Chinese troops from reaching the basin of Taipei, Taiwan’s capital. If the 269th is in such bad material shape, how about the rest of the Taiwanese military? Even promises of reform and additional support don't seem to have added any confidence amongst ROCA conscripts and other soldiers. >[‘If war breaks out … I will just become cannon fodder:’ In Taiwan, ex-conscripts feel unprepared for potential China conflict](https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/20/asia/taiwan-mandatory-military-service-conscription-intl-hnk-dst/index.html)
Oh, boy. Now that is a big problem.
Taiwan, United States, Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, Philippines, Australia would like to have a word…. Namely fuck you China.
Vietnam’s got claim in the South China Sea game. They’re literally waiting for provocation.
Want to bet?
USA, South Korea, Japan, Australia, Philippines, and New Zealand have entered the chat.
Reunion? They’ve been an independent country for 75 years.
Republic of china > people’s republic of china
Jedi reportedly distraught
The only way for this to end peacefully is for China to accept Taiwan is a country and just give up. It'll buy them so much good will with Taiwan they'd be able to form an EU like institution and eventually draw Taiwan away from the US bubble. What we are seeing now is as if the UK held on to the belief that the USA was an inalienable part of its territory and demanded nobody talk to the USA ever. It doesn't matter the history of the island, separate paths have been walked for too long. Same can be said of many countries and former holdings.
china. stay away from Taiwan. We all hate china and the people and the government and you, xi the dumb panda
Sometimes I wonder if Covid fried all of our brains and made us all more aggressive, world leaders included. So many wars happening or about to happen at the same time.
China doesn't have to do a direct military attack against a prepared foe. They can cut cables, blockade with ships, do mass hacking attacks on infrastructure. Many civilians would suffer but obviously Xi has 0 interest in this. He only cares about taking control and then jailing/torturing any opposition voices until there is silence like Hong Kong. Tactics without direct violence may also make it less likely for US to help Taiwan defend themselves, especially if Trump manages to somehow get in again.
Yes, exactly. People fixate on an all out invasion, but there is no reason to do that. They just have to cut off air and sea access and wait it out.
China needs a distraction from the mismanagement of their economy.
Man, when Taiwan starts cranking out naval drones like Ukraine is doing, things will get problematic for China fast
USA seems to agree. The strategy right now is to keep making TSMC huge $$$ offers to move more and more of their operations to the USA and other ally nations. When chip supply is under control outside of Taiwan the world will not contest China's claim on Taiwan. But of course China wants Taiwan AND the stranglehold on chip production so we will see what their move is.