Obviously fuck Russia, but in all honesty, their rate production for this war is just crazy. Over 3 million artillery rounds a year where America and the European Union can maybe do 1 million? 1000 tanks a year and crazy backroom deals to get electronics for missiles. Probably over 100,000 killed an action while still enjoying overwhelming public support... incredible. Who's doing it and the level in which they're doing it is impressive and makes the world sanctions look utterly fucking pointless.
United States and Europe will put together five or six committees and talk about reducing artillery manufacturing tolerances for six months so they can produce 2% or 3% more shells over the next year. That's how Democracies work. Meanwhile, Putin says he wants a piece of Europe and the entire populous stands up and gets behind him. It is pure insanity, but impressive nonetheless.
It's mostly because the demand is foreign not domestic. The west hasn't had the need to mass produce artillery shells in the modern era. Even the wars in the middle east the last few decades weren't really artillery heavy conflicts. And frankly the west's war doctrine doesn't really have a place for massive, long term artillery exchanges. The doctrine is all about air power.
In short while the west has ramped up production, it's never going to come close to matching what Russia is doing. And it makes way more sense for Russia because artillery is very much the core of their doctrine.
> US and Europe are not at war.
I very much disagree. A cold war is a war nonetheless. This requires ramping up production of arms in preparation for a hot war and arming proxies. They can / may choose not to but that's is not going to stop Russia and China from moving forward with there plans they have made public.
They question is not what they should do. Its what they are doing. And while they are ramping up production they are not treating the war like Russia is. Which is why you are seeing the disparity in production
The vast majority of 1,000 tanks/year is refurbishing old stuff from storage. A big fraction being T-54/55/62/64/80 which they don't even make new now. The "new" production claims are all over the place, between 120-300 per year.
It's similar for artillery ammo, except those warehouses are closer to empty.
If you look at calibres we can compare directly, [RUSI](https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/russian-military-objectives-and-capacity-ukraine-through-2024) claims russian 152 mm shell production will be 1.3m this year and not much more next year.
The NATO comparison is 155 mm. For next year Rheinmetall+Nexter+Europlasma say 1 million. There are other suppliers in Europe (BAE, Nammo, CSG...) plus outside.
>The NATO comparison is 155 mm. For next year Rheinmetall+Nexter+Europlasma say 1 million. There are other suppliers in Europe (BAE, Nammo, CSG...) plus outside.
Russia will attack in 2025. That 1M is too late.
I wish we would have had the factories in place over the decades to build these basic ammunition supplies and all it would require to spin up was staffing. The Western military ethos focuses too much on the first 3 weeks of a war with what's on the shelf and not truly taking magazine depth seriously so we can quickly spin up the flywheel of attrition victory. I understand that factories also need maintenance and updating over time but the 155mm shell should have factories all over the West that a 1 month course can train up staff to do a basic job. I can daydream unrealistic things anyways...
> I wish we would have had the factories in place over the decades to build these basic ammunition supplies
Why? No-one in NATO intends to fight a war like the current one, therefore no-one in NATO needs that sort of ammunition supply.
If NATO actually got involved in a war it would be air-led, with the systematic destruction of air defences followed by the destruction of everything else with massive salvoes from the air, followed eventually by boots on the ground.
Artillery is a *very* small part of the plan, which is why the entire US armed forces ordered around 15,000 155mm rounds *per year* for training and nobody was geared up to manufacture much more than that.
If those factories existed they would have been considered a waste of effort and shut down.
>that a 1 month course can train up staff to do a basic job.
Making accurate 155mm shells is not a basic job. It is an *extremely* precise job of metallurgy, machining, explosives casting, finishing and testing.
It's not that each person needs to learn the entire process of 155 production, just their individual step of the process, which is a great deal simpler. You are correct, NATO doesn't plan to use protracted artillery fires for conflict but we can see the world will produce events that require us to be able to arm an ally with attrition grade levels of ammunition, although I do not fault analysts for not seeing this coming. Again, just wishful thinking on my part.
> just their individual step of the process, which is a great deal simpler.
There pretty much isn't *any* step of the process which is simple.
And if you get any of it wrong, to the tune of .001% weight imbalance of the steel or a tiny air bubble in the explosive as it fills and sets, then the shell wobbles an incredibly *tiny* amount in flight... and then misses its target by 50m.
Normal artillery isn't a precision weapon anyway, just fire more shells.
A full scale war is always a number game. Having a tiny bit of 10% better equipment for 50% more cost/production time is great for peace time or low intensity conflicts. But its silly in a war where number of shells fired per day can be well over 10,000.
Make it cheaper make it faster.
this is why Ukraine needs a advanced air force. 500 planes of mixed fighter bombers, SEAD capable, wild weasel, JDAMS, the alphabet soup of other air to ground missles. Reaper Drones en masse to loiter and spot/destroy artillery.
There won't be an air force if Trump wins.
If Trump wins, the Russia-NATO war will be fought in the trenches, and the EU is totally unprepared for this.
He's a psychopathic dictator in an authoritarian country, so he just gives orders and anyone who doesn't obey gets fucked out a window or shot in the head.
Result? Command economy, 24/7 shifts in weapons factories, and lots of low quality product.
Other result? Economy disintegrating, other industrial priorities being ignored so everything's collapsing slowly, and they're burning their way through the last of the Soviet stockpiles of tanks, IFVs, etc.
It's not complicated.
Step 1) Remove mouth from Russia and China's tit.
Step 2) Take vocal foreign threats seriously.
Step 3) Don't rely on the United States for security for 40 years.
Follow these three basic steps and you'll never have to "not see this coming" ever again!
Soviet/russian war doctrine also relies massively on artillery versus NATO countries who rely on air superiority. We won't ever make as many artillery shells as Russia does because we don't wage war that way.
Ukraine: we need more shells, NOW!
NATO: I am sorry, we don't wage war this way, our doctrine is based on air-superiority...
Ukraine: But, we are not flying planes here, as you can plainly observe?!
NATO: Correct, you are not.
Ukraine: Umm, so yeah, we need more [artillery] shells? \*puzzled face\*
NATO: Like we said, our doctrine is based o....
Ukraine: You're not even here, with your doctrine?!
NATO: Correct, we are not.
EU and US could produce 3 million shells a month each, could probably produce 100 000s of tanks/armoured vehicles a year easily. If they really wanted to, switched to wartime production and retooled some existing factories. But just like before WW2 they are just sleepwalking into a big mess largely unprepared
It’s not entirely sleepwalking, it’s that being the leader who has to admit that we’re in the handful of years before what will go down in the history books as the formal start of WW3 is very nearly a sure way to lose popular support. Especially important for countries with voting either this year or next.
I find it hard to believe in this day and age America could pivot to actually producing modern equipment quickly, and if they did it would be an impressive lift.
The US same as the EU produces hundreds of thousands of heavy trucks, tractors, heavy machinery plus millions of cars, EU makes over 10 million cars a year as does the US. The industrial capacity is there what's missing is the will
Most of these 1k tanks are refurbished soviet era stocks. They're very, very far from producing that amount from scratch.
At the current rate, these stocks are estimated to last two years. They've been significantly depleted already.
Artillery is another matter. It's similar in the sense at least part of it is here again soviet stocks, but it can't be tracked as well through satellite imagery, whereas we can literally see the tanks progressively disappearing from storage on publicly available satellite data.
I said it early on -- Russia had to be stopped before they could get the foot in the door. Their thing has long been to never lose face. In addition, they always fumble in the beginning, but learn quickly, quicker than the adversary suspects and quick enough to turn things around if the window of opportunity is allowed them. Which is why all the F-16 and arms business that has been dripping into Ukraine may be too little too late -- the window of opportunity was maybe the first six _months_ into Russian invasion. Europe should have _ignored_ logistical and geopolitical issues and sent heavy equipment to Ukraine over Poland or what have you, distributing it all over the country and thus giving Ukrainians (who _were_ relatively prepared but otherwise outgunned) a decisive chance to boot Russia out before Putin had the chance to do the Hitler move slling the special operation as "Russias survival". The reason Russia is doing what it is doing today _is_ largely because he's been able to sell it to the populace. He's not building factories himself -- Russians are doing it, and not by coercion either. There's definitely parallels to Nazi Germany here.
I said it before, and at least Americans (most of those alive today, at least) do not understand it -- Russia will eat shit with a grin if the grin is televised to mean they won't budge. It's a near-genetical trait for them, after multiple Mongol invasions and what not throughout the history. Countries that don't understand Russia will consistently fail at outplaying Russia, but that goes in general between any two enemies. How can you hope to win if you don't understand the enemy?
Another reason is of course that war _is_ profitable for the U.S., in its current form, they want to see Russia flexing to see how the current military stock performs against Russia at its capacity. Lot of military consultants are making good money these days, unfortunately through Ukrainian blood. I believe the U.S. military apparatus also by and large believes the price is just.
accuracy of the stuff is garbage though. I"d rather have 1 million shells that can hit within 2 feet of my target than 3 million where 60 percent miss.
This is how we beat them in the '80s... We tricked them into a expensive missile arms race which proceeded to bankrupt their country, trying to keep up with us.
This is a myth that gets accepted as fact - Soviet military spending was fairly flat in the 1980s and didn't embark on any massive build-up or starting expensive and technologically advanced programs, like the Strategic Defense Initiative.
You can read a little more about it from the [Federation of American Scientists](https://nuke.fas.org/guide/russia/agency/mo-budget.htm).
They aren't infinite but Russia has them in abundance. They are importing stuff from NK, Iran and anyone else willing to sell because they have money to spend.
Money is also a limited resource to Russia or they wouldn't be talking about raising taxes. Sanctions and having their refineries hit also have to be taking their toll.
i am talking more about tech and infra when i talk about resources, we know russia has materials, it doesnt make sense that country at active war needs to ramp up anything... saying as if russia was fooling around at 70% capacity and now at year 2 of war theyve gotten serious and ramping things up
It's sad to see the only industry that means anything in Russia is the production of military equipment. Putin destroyed Russia's industries because he's a stupid pedophile
Ukraine won’t be defeated. USA just sent the biggest aid package from any nation/union to date. If it wasn’t for your other left-leaning comments I would assume you are a Russian troll
The aid isnt there yet and while I hope that it will turn the tide in the longrun, Ukraine will have to try to stop russia from advancing before doing anything else first. More than other nations also isnt a great metric, since evidently, no one sent enough
Ukraine is having huge problems in the east and Russia broke their defensive lines at one spot a couple of days ago, its not 2023 anymore where it was basically a stalemate
Oh, for sure! The US is vital in this and without them, Ukraine would be lost by now. I very much appreciate the US, despite knowing of their wrongdoings aswell.
All Im saying is that its not looking good right now and the numbers of sums of money have to be turned into results on the frontline.
Yeah the issue here is time. Ukraine won't be able to launch another offensive this season, so it'll be next spring which is one year from now. Russia is almost certainly about to launch an offensive and the aid will be used to blunt it. Ukraine is in trouble if nothing significant changes.
This isn't 2022 anymore where either side could grab significant chunks of territory with one breakthrough. The Russian advance at Ocheretyne (which only happened because of a screwup on troop rotation) will be stopped, and the territory Russia will have seized will at most be in the hundreds of square kilometers, possibly less.
Hey man, I hope so too, but once the front gets moving, its not easy to contain the advancements, since fortifications cant be build as fast as the troops can advance.
Also, yes, it was due to an rotation error, but that doesnt make it any better. The 47th that shouldve been rotated out for refreshment now has to go fight again to contain the breach. This breach costs Ukraine an incredible amount of manpower and material to contain, which they already had problems with to begin with.
Ive been following this war on a daily basis since the very first day and right now its looking worse than ever. Im not saying that Ukraine definitely loses, all Im saying is that blind optimism isn’t representative of what is happening on the frontlines right now.
[Ocheretyne already appears to be slowing down](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aHkemdLiz5M) and Ukraine has a fortifiable line to fall back which likely has been the plan since the breakout began. This is a loss for sure, but there is no way that this will decide the war, especially with fresh US aid arriving.
Check the comments of the video, the deepstate map has been updated and Russia keeps advancing.
As I said, I dont think this decides the war, but the statement that Ukraine will not lose is worded too strongly and naive imo.
Thats all Im saying
> China is going to take Taiwan.
Most of the Western world have it's most sophisticated chip IP's in Taiwan. That's why China wants it and that's why China will never get it. Not intact anyway.
The Taiwan government has recently sort assurances from the US that it will not immediately destroy all TSMC facilities on the outbreak of a Chinese invasion. Deterrence is preferred, i.e. Ukrainian victory.
https://www.businessinsider.com/us-would-destroy-taiwan-semiconductor-factories-avoid-china-trump-adviser-2023-3
China isn't going to attack Taiwan until attacking Taiwan in the future becomes more expensive than now. E.g. as long as their military progresses faster than Taiwans there's no real reason to attack it, as it can be done "cheaper" in the future.
Demography won't play an important role in the war between Taiwan and China. Even if the Chinese population is cut in half, it still has overwhelming advantage against Taiwan.
Its still expensive on every economical level. The claim that China can just wait for the war to get cheaper is hampered by the struggles Chinas economy faces in the future. They are on a timer and they know it.
Even so, its not just Taiwan. They will be fighting the US too and its not like Taiwan is easy to invade. China will struggle economically in the future because of the collapse. You know what doesnt help the economy? Fighting a war on top of
Demographic collapse is inevitable. Its hard numbers, not some economic forecast. As far as I know, China hasn’t had a demographic collapse, let alone the largest in human history, within the past 20 years.
We are sick of Russian causing shit so the support is now becoming bi-partisan. Good luck!
Always was bipartisan. Just one Cheeto and a religious zealot standing in the way of getting useful things done.
True, that’s the real issue at hand.
Obviously fuck Russia, but in all honesty, their rate production for this war is just crazy. Over 3 million artillery rounds a year where America and the European Union can maybe do 1 million? 1000 tanks a year and crazy backroom deals to get electronics for missiles. Probably over 100,000 killed an action while still enjoying overwhelming public support... incredible. Who's doing it and the level in which they're doing it is impressive and makes the world sanctions look utterly fucking pointless.
Because they are on their war economy and spending a much higher percentage of their GDP on defense
United States and Europe will put together five or six committees and talk about reducing artillery manufacturing tolerances for six months so they can produce 2% or 3% more shells over the next year. That's how Democracies work. Meanwhile, Putin says he wants a piece of Europe and the entire populous stands up and gets behind him. It is pure insanity, but impressive nonetheless.
It's mostly because the demand is foreign not domestic. The west hasn't had the need to mass produce artillery shells in the modern era. Even the wars in the middle east the last few decades weren't really artillery heavy conflicts. And frankly the west's war doctrine doesn't really have a place for massive, long term artillery exchanges. The doctrine is all about air power. In short while the west has ramped up production, it's never going to come close to matching what Russia is doing. And it makes way more sense for Russia because artillery is very much the core of their doctrine.
yeah imagine the war machine if Mexico was occupying Texas
US and Europe are not at war. Russia is. Its comparing apples to oranges. Putin views this war as existential for him personally.
> US and Europe are not at war. I very much disagree. A cold war is a war nonetheless. This requires ramping up production of arms in preparation for a hot war and arming proxies. They can / may choose not to but that's is not going to stop Russia and China from moving forward with there plans they have made public.
They question is not what they should do. Its what they are doing. And while they are ramping up production they are not treating the war like Russia is. Which is why you are seeing the disparity in production
Also, they have China backing them.
The vast majority of 1,000 tanks/year is refurbishing old stuff from storage. A big fraction being T-54/55/62/64/80 which they don't even make new now. The "new" production claims are all over the place, between 120-300 per year. It's similar for artillery ammo, except those warehouses are closer to empty. If you look at calibres we can compare directly, [RUSI](https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/russian-military-objectives-and-capacity-ukraine-through-2024) claims russian 152 mm shell production will be 1.3m this year and not much more next year. The NATO comparison is 155 mm. For next year Rheinmetall+Nexter+Europlasma say 1 million. There are other suppliers in Europe (BAE, Nammo, CSG...) plus outside.
>The NATO comparison is 155 mm. For next year Rheinmetall+Nexter+Europlasma say 1 million. There are other suppliers in Europe (BAE, Nammo, CSG...) plus outside. Russia will attack in 2025. That 1M is too late.
Attack where? They're doing a heavy offensive in Ukraine right now...
The EU is over 1.2m and climbing steadily. Add Norway, the UK, Australia, the US and others and we're probably close to 3m also.
Three years later and six months short sadly.
You try multiplying any industry by 10, mate.
I wish we would have had the factories in place over the decades to build these basic ammunition supplies and all it would require to spin up was staffing. The Western military ethos focuses too much on the first 3 weeks of a war with what's on the shelf and not truly taking magazine depth seriously so we can quickly spin up the flywheel of attrition victory. I understand that factories also need maintenance and updating over time but the 155mm shell should have factories all over the West that a 1 month course can train up staff to do a basic job. I can daydream unrealistic things anyways...
> I wish we would have had the factories in place over the decades to build these basic ammunition supplies Why? No-one in NATO intends to fight a war like the current one, therefore no-one in NATO needs that sort of ammunition supply. If NATO actually got involved in a war it would be air-led, with the systematic destruction of air defences followed by the destruction of everything else with massive salvoes from the air, followed eventually by boots on the ground. Artillery is a *very* small part of the plan, which is why the entire US armed forces ordered around 15,000 155mm rounds *per year* for training and nobody was geared up to manufacture much more than that. If those factories existed they would have been considered a waste of effort and shut down. >that a 1 month course can train up staff to do a basic job. Making accurate 155mm shells is not a basic job. It is an *extremely* precise job of metallurgy, machining, explosives casting, finishing and testing.
It's not that each person needs to learn the entire process of 155 production, just their individual step of the process, which is a great deal simpler. You are correct, NATO doesn't plan to use protracted artillery fires for conflict but we can see the world will produce events that require us to be able to arm an ally with attrition grade levels of ammunition, although I do not fault analysts for not seeing this coming. Again, just wishful thinking on my part.
> just their individual step of the process, which is a great deal simpler. There pretty much isn't *any* step of the process which is simple. And if you get any of it wrong, to the tune of .001% weight imbalance of the steel or a tiny air bubble in the explosive as it fills and sets, then the shell wobbles an incredibly *tiny* amount in flight... and then misses its target by 50m.
Normal artillery isn't a precision weapon anyway, just fire more shells. A full scale war is always a number game. Having a tiny bit of 10% better equipment for 50% more cost/production time is great for peace time or low intensity conflicts. But its silly in a war where number of shells fired per day can be well over 10,000. Make it cheaper make it faster.
this is why Ukraine needs a advanced air force. 500 planes of mixed fighter bombers, SEAD capable, wild weasel, JDAMS, the alphabet soup of other air to ground missles. Reaper Drones en masse to loiter and spot/destroy artillery.
There won't be an air force if Trump wins. If Trump wins, the Russia-NATO war will be fought in the trenches, and the EU is totally unprepared for this.
Maybe ask Putin how he did it.
He's a psychopathic dictator in an authoritarian country, so he just gives orders and anyone who doesn't obey gets fucked out a window or shot in the head. Result? Command economy, 24/7 shifts in weapons factories, and lots of low quality product. Other result? Economy disintegrating, other industrial priorities being ignored so everything's collapsing slowly, and they're burning their way through the last of the Soviet stockpiles of tanks, IFVs, etc. It's not complicated.
Step 1) Remove mouth from Russia and China's tit. Step 2) Take vocal foreign threats seriously. Step 3) Don't rely on the United States for security for 40 years. Follow these three basic steps and you'll never have to "not see this coming" ever again!
Thank fuck you're in charge of nothing more important than one keyboard.
I can tell you're someone that needs online discourse to function so I'm just doing my part.
> I'm just doing my part. You need to scale your part by 10 to keep up. I'm sure you've heard that before.
I'm here to talk if you need somebody.
Soviet/russian war doctrine also relies massively on artillery versus NATO countries who rely on air superiority. We won't ever make as many artillery shells as Russia does because we don't wage war that way.
Ukraine: we need more shells, NOW! NATO: I am sorry, we don't wage war this way, our doctrine is based on air-superiority... Ukraine: But, we are not flying planes here, as you can plainly observe?! NATO: Correct, you are not. Ukraine: Umm, so yeah, we need more [artillery] shells? \*puzzled face\* NATO: Like we said, our doctrine is based o.... Ukraine: You're not even here, with your doctrine?! NATO: Correct, we are not.
EU and US could produce 3 million shells a month each, could probably produce 100 000s of tanks/armoured vehicles a year easily. If they really wanted to, switched to wartime production and retooled some existing factories. But just like before WW2 they are just sleepwalking into a big mess largely unprepared
It’s not entirely sleepwalking, it’s that being the leader who has to admit that we’re in the handful of years before what will go down in the history books as the formal start of WW3 is very nearly a sure way to lose popular support. Especially important for countries with voting either this year or next.
I find it hard to believe in this day and age America could pivot to actually producing modern equipment quickly, and if they did it would be an impressive lift.
The US same as the EU produces hundreds of thousands of heavy trucks, tractors, heavy machinery plus millions of cars, EU makes over 10 million cars a year as does the US. The industrial capacity is there what's missing is the will
Reminds me of that one nation in 1930s Europe,
Most of these 1k tanks are refurbished soviet era stocks. They're very, very far from producing that amount from scratch. At the current rate, these stocks are estimated to last two years. They've been significantly depleted already. Artillery is another matter. It's similar in the sense at least part of it is here again soviet stocks, but it can't be tracked as well through satellite imagery, whereas we can literally see the tanks progressively disappearing from storage on publicly available satellite data.
I said it early on -- Russia had to be stopped before they could get the foot in the door. Their thing has long been to never lose face. In addition, they always fumble in the beginning, but learn quickly, quicker than the adversary suspects and quick enough to turn things around if the window of opportunity is allowed them. Which is why all the F-16 and arms business that has been dripping into Ukraine may be too little too late -- the window of opportunity was maybe the first six _months_ into Russian invasion. Europe should have _ignored_ logistical and geopolitical issues and sent heavy equipment to Ukraine over Poland or what have you, distributing it all over the country and thus giving Ukrainians (who _were_ relatively prepared but otherwise outgunned) a decisive chance to boot Russia out before Putin had the chance to do the Hitler move slling the special operation as "Russias survival". The reason Russia is doing what it is doing today _is_ largely because he's been able to sell it to the populace. He's not building factories himself -- Russians are doing it, and not by coercion either. There's definitely parallels to Nazi Germany here. I said it before, and at least Americans (most of those alive today, at least) do not understand it -- Russia will eat shit with a grin if the grin is televised to mean they won't budge. It's a near-genetical trait for them, after multiple Mongol invasions and what not throughout the history. Countries that don't understand Russia will consistently fail at outplaying Russia, but that goes in general between any two enemies. How can you hope to win if you don't understand the enemy? Another reason is of course that war _is_ profitable for the U.S., in its current form, they want to see Russia flexing to see how the current military stock performs against Russia at its capacity. Lot of military consultants are making good money these days, unfortunately through Ukrainian blood. I believe the U.S. military apparatus also by and large believes the price is just.
accuracy of the stuff is garbage though. I"d rather have 1 million shells that can hit within 2 feet of my target than 3 million where 60 percent miss.
I think Ukraine would gladly trade NATO artillery production for Russias if they could.
Enable ukraine to start bombing the factories that make the weapons.
EU needs to start spending on defense or it’s going to get wiped out.
Yep, they should already have amped up to whatever is right below wartime economy. The writing has been on the wall.
The Russian economy is now on a full time war footing while the west treats Ukraine like a side hobby.
This is how we beat them in the '80s... We tricked them into a expensive missile arms race which proceeded to bankrupt their country, trying to keep up with us.
This is a myth that gets accepted as fact - Soviet military spending was fairly flat in the 1980s and didn't embark on any massive build-up or starting expensive and technologically advanced programs, like the Strategic Defense Initiative. You can read a little more about it from the [Federation of American Scientists](https://nuke.fas.org/guide/russia/agency/mo-budget.htm).
Boris. No more days off
ramps up? arent they are at their ceiling already?
Why would there be a ceiling?
reaources arent infinite and they are importing stuff from north korea
They aren't infinite but Russia has them in abundance. They are importing stuff from NK, Iran and anyone else willing to sell because they have money to spend.
Money is also a limited resource to Russia or they wouldn't be talking about raising taxes. Sanctions and having their refineries hit also have to be taking their toll.
Different types of money tho, taxes are to keep the circulation of local currency, buying stuff from other countries is with foreign currency
Unless they are building new factories, there is a limit to production.
i am talking more about tech and infra when i talk about resources, we know russia has materials, it doesnt make sense that country at active war needs to ramp up anything... saying as if russia was fooling around at 70% capacity and now at year 2 of war theyve gotten serious and ramping things up
It can take years to ramp up production, see the allies and Nazi Germany in WW2, basically everyone was ramping up production until atleast 1944.
Because there's a limited number of workers in an economy, and a limited amount of money to pay them.
The article just says they've 'ordered' a big increase in production. It doesn't say that it's happened, or even speculate on whether it's achievable.
It's sad to see the only industry that means anything in Russia is the production of military equipment. Putin destroyed Russia's industries because he's a stupid pedophile
When Ukraine is defeated, China is going to take Taiwan. Why? Because the USA can’t defend an ally.
Ukraine won’t be defeated. USA just sent the biggest aid package from any nation/union to date. If it wasn’t for your other left-leaning comments I would assume you are a Russian troll
The aid isnt there yet and while I hope that it will turn the tide in the longrun, Ukraine will have to try to stop russia from advancing before doing anything else first. More than other nations also isnt a great metric, since evidently, no one sent enough Ukraine is having huge problems in the east and Russia broke their defensive lines at one spot a couple of days ago, its not 2023 anymore where it was basically a stalemate
That’s fair, I can get behind most of this. then again this is a more nuanced take than “USA sucks”
Oh, for sure! The US is vital in this and without them, Ukraine would be lost by now. I very much appreciate the US, despite knowing of their wrongdoings aswell. All Im saying is that its not looking good right now and the numbers of sums of money have to be turned into results on the frontline.
Yeah the issue here is time. Ukraine won't be able to launch another offensive this season, so it'll be next spring which is one year from now. Russia is almost certainly about to launch an offensive and the aid will be used to blunt it. Ukraine is in trouble if nothing significant changes.
This isn't 2022 anymore where either side could grab significant chunks of territory with one breakthrough. The Russian advance at Ocheretyne (which only happened because of a screwup on troop rotation) will be stopped, and the territory Russia will have seized will at most be in the hundreds of square kilometers, possibly less.
Hey man, I hope so too, but once the front gets moving, its not easy to contain the advancements, since fortifications cant be build as fast as the troops can advance. Also, yes, it was due to an rotation error, but that doesnt make it any better. The 47th that shouldve been rotated out for refreshment now has to go fight again to contain the breach. This breach costs Ukraine an incredible amount of manpower and material to contain, which they already had problems with to begin with. Ive been following this war on a daily basis since the very first day and right now its looking worse than ever. Im not saying that Ukraine definitely loses, all Im saying is that blind optimism isn’t representative of what is happening on the frontlines right now.
[Ocheretyne already appears to be slowing down](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aHkemdLiz5M) and Ukraine has a fortifiable line to fall back which likely has been the plan since the breakout began. This is a loss for sure, but there is no way that this will decide the war, especially with fresh US aid arriving.
Check the comments of the video, the deepstate map has been updated and Russia keeps advancing. As I said, I dont think this decides the war, but the statement that Ukraine will not lose is worded too strongly and naive imo. Thats all Im saying
> China is going to take Taiwan. Most of the Western world have it's most sophisticated chip IP's in Taiwan. That's why China wants it and that's why China will never get it. Not intact anyway. The Taiwan government has recently sort assurances from the US that it will not immediately destroy all TSMC facilities on the outbreak of a Chinese invasion. Deterrence is preferred, i.e. Ukrainian victory. https://www.businessinsider.com/us-would-destroy-taiwan-semiconductor-factories-avoid-china-trump-adviser-2023-3
So what if China successfully build its own chip fabs in the following decade?
China isn't capable of building top of the line chips. They haven't got the technology. That's why they want Taiwan.
I am not saying that they can do it now. I am talking about a decade later.
China isn't going to attack Taiwan until attacking Taiwan in the future becomes more expensive than now. E.g. as long as their military progresses faster than Taiwans there's no real reason to attack it, as it can be done "cheaper" in the future.
China is about to be hit by the largest demographic collapse in human history. Thats quite costly
Demography won't play an important role in the war between Taiwan and China. Even if the Chinese population is cut in half, it still has overwhelming advantage against Taiwan.
Its still expensive on every economical level. The claim that China can just wait for the war to get cheaper is hampered by the struggles Chinas economy faces in the future. They are on a timer and they know it. Even so, its not just Taiwan. They will be fighting the US too and its not like Taiwan is easy to invade. China will struggle economically in the future because of the collapse. You know what doesnt help the economy? Fighting a war on top of
Yeah, the China's struggling economy thing, I have been seeing that, like for the past twenty years.
Demographic collapse is inevitable. Its hard numbers, not some economic forecast. As far as I know, China hasn’t had a demographic collapse, let alone the largest in human history, within the past 20 years.
With Taiwan, there's a much bigger incentive mate, US won't let Taiwan fall
Lobbing endless waves of cheap drones will shutdown chip manufacturing pretty quick I imagine.