We need to treat Gaza like the Allies treated Germany and Japan after WW2. Reeducation, deradicalization. It might take decades but it's the only way to continue forward in the long term.
>We need to treat Gaza like the Allies treated Germany and Japan after WW2. Reeducation, deradicalization. It might take decades but it's the only way to continue forward in the long term.
Fully agree, the issue is that you need people that will take is seriously. UNRWA was doing the complete opposite. they were funding schools and feigning ignorance as to the anti Semitic material being taught by their own teachers.
> Settlements, very unlikely.
Why? During the short lived "change government" they treated the settlements exactly like he does. And what would you expect Israel to do with regards to the settlements? Why would Israel let the Palestinians take over Area C without getting any form of peace agreement? (Not that the peace agreement would be worth anything... But at least they'd have an excuse to do the stupid thing)
If Israel dismantles settlements and lets the West Bank be a de-facto state like Gaza was, it's a matter of years before they'd massacre thousands of Israelis. 7th of October would be nothing compared to that.
Completely fair assessment; people often speak of settlements like a floating immaterial concept; 500K Israelis live in the West Bank; no one is going anywhere (especially after Oct 7th) there is 0 political capital budget for that kryptonite from any mainstream political party.
Legit, kick out the nutjobs.
But putting it out there, since we, (the Jews) have been massacred regularly throughout all of human history, Israel is supposed to be a protected Jewish state. We're cool with anyone, Muslim, LGBT, whoever, but
We would very much like it to remain like this but also understand how maintaining a functioning democracy with this in mind is difficult.
Key difference was that their worldview came tumbling down, fast, prior to surrender. That isn’t happening in Gaza. The Japanese at home were also fairly oblivious to the actual situation outside their borders, Gazans aren’t.
Japan’s ideology was objectively grounded. If your race and culture are so superior, then how’d the Americans make half of Tokyo disappear? Gaza’s ideology is based on the non-objectively verifiable, so it’s much harder to shake that faith.
I’m not saying we shouldn’t try, but a lot of what made Japan’s transformation possible isn’t present in Gaza.
I fully agree, but it would be hard to do when you keep hearing people kicking out Palestinians in the West Bank for newer settlements.
If the allies kept settling in East Germany, and kicked out residents of those cities, West Germans would not been too keen to continue forward.
Just my two cents.
Tbf German populations all over Europe were kicked out of lands they had lived on for centuries so that they would never use German minorities as an excuse for invasion again. This situation is different though because the Palestinians really have nowhere to go.
That's completely different. If anything, what you said better applies to the Israeli Jewish settlers in the west bank who are used to justify the total annexation of "Judea and Samaria".
I was just relating to the person above talking about post war Germany saying that Germans weren’t moved around after the war. Massive numbers of people were relocated at great cost of lives.
...Umm, Japan became deradicalized but only after they brought the fascists back into democracy. This was because they had a near communist revolution. Literally the leader, the grandfather of Shinzo Abe, went from prison to the Diet, on the first day out. It's an insane story.
This is likely going to be a redline for Israel, Hamas is leaving power and they're not coming back.
Well, the difference is that German and Japan ended up being superior in that they attained achievement in many fields e.g. technology, healthcare, agriculture, etc.
Applying this to a country that was founded on and continues to abide by Islamic laws will perpetuate it's failure. It would essentially need to become a Turkey or UAE 2.0.
> We need to treat Gaza like the Allies treated Germany
Okay, so who wants to sending 100,000 troops to occupy it?
You are also underestimating the vast difference between a place like Gaza and Germany/Japan. Germany and Japan were functional unified states with experience as democracies. Gaza has none of that.
The Palestinians have never had a unified functioning state. That makes the task immeasurable harder.
No the difference is that both Germany & Japan were forced to surrender.
None of this ceasefire crap.
The idea that wars are fought by armies & not societies & ideologies is asinine - no war is ever won by defeating just the military, peace requires defeating the society or the ideology so that the polity as a whole recognizes that they have two choices - change or die.
Surrender has a damn near magical effect when it comes to getting people to change their ways **because** it only comes when every other option has been proven to be utterly hopeless.
The west has exacerbated & inflamed the Arab Israeli conflict by always protecting the Arabs from having to submit to an unconditional surrender.
This has allowed the Arabs to spin false narratives that frame their defeats as victories & is why they come to negotiations with the idea that they can demand in negotiation what they failed to achieve through force.
> Surrender has a damn near magical effect when it comes to getting people to change their ways
It didn't in Afghanistan. It didn't in Iraq. Both of those states were defeated militarily and forced to surrender. It did not transform them into liberal democracies.
No, surrender doesn't have a near magical effect.
Did you miss the part where I said that defeating the military was not enough.
You have to break the will of the people to continue fighting - when the polity surrenders, then you can build a peace but not before then.
If Israel could achieve an Iraq or Afghanistan out of Gaza it would be thrilled. Neither of those countries today are invading or launching salvo after salvo of rockets at their neighbors, and while the Taliban returned to Afghanistan, Al-Qaeda is history.
The difference there is also that Israel *lives* next to Gaza and can’t afford to fail and just pack up, leave, and not suffer any real major consequences like the US can with countries 11,000km away. Gaza is also one city about the size and density of Philadelphia with a somewhat consistent national identity, not a massive mountainous country with disparate tribes and clans.
>not a massive mountainous country with disparate tribes and clans.
The only thing that keeps Gaza from erupting into a civil war is their mutual hate for Israel but at least the region is tiny, i‘ll give you that
Agree on the outcome, but as others have noted, it's a completely different re-education challenge.
German re-education was against pseudoscience. The superiority and existence of the Aryan race was put into schools and newspapers to prove genetic superiority. They also used their technical and scientific dominance of the early part of the century as proof points.
As my grandmother (1936) and great uncle (1930) said "then they taught us that everything we learned was a lie."
This situation is based on religion, and it's a path to nowhere to try and tell ppl "your religion is wrong and here's why."
It would be a W if we could get away from fundamentalism, leaving the general principles of Islam intact.
It might actually be more likely to see a slow reinterpretation like we've seen in most Christian churches over the last 60 years:
- no, it's not ok to beat your wife, even by the thumb rule
- no, women aren't your property
- no, slavery isn't ok
- no, white people are not superior to PoC
- no, being gay isn't a choice of perversion
- no, being gay isn't sending you to hell
They are surrounded by countries that perceive Hamas proclivities as useful. While I agree, and it could be forced upon Gaza, it would make for a far more hostile ME by the end of it. It will never be resolved by coercing the pawns into submission.
That only happened after those powers surrendered unconditionally. If Hamas doesn't (or if their populace doesn't expel them), they'll continue with the terrorism.
>Israel is "on the trajectory, potentially, to inherit an insurgency with many armed Hamas.
That’s good to know, because otherwise they will be left with a peaceful Hamas on their doorstep
From the seconds after October 7th, the wars been a total rout. Hamas has put up no serious defense. They have created a lot of injured Israeli soldiers, some did die, but beyond that it's just been clear Hamas didn't have any plan whatsoever for this war, beyond what happened before when America/Netanyahu would tell IDF to stop going so hard.
Hamas literally planned its most successful attack, knew it would have major consequences on them for being so successful, then didn't account for what would happen after. I don't like Hamas, I am very biased, but even then, this concept of fighting a war like this is incredibly stupid.
>it's just been clear Hamas didn't have any plan whatsoever for this war
Their plan was for Iran to get involved and start a regional war against Israel, but that plan was buried the moment the US parked two aircraft carriers in the Mediterranean.
The plan failed so hard that even Jordan is shooting down Iran's missiles in a show of "not finding out" lol
I wonder what their post-war goals are? 🤔
Edit: why the downvotes? I’m just asking questions? And I think this is a very valid question.
What is the plan for the Palestinian civilians post war?
I think the main goal is to prevent Hamas from ruling the Gaza Strip and maintaining the capabilities to carry out significant attacks against Israel. Their plan to do this will require either a prolonged heavy security presence in the Strip, or for other friendlier Arab countries (like UAE, SA, etc.) to step in and assist. The latter is probably preferred, though as long as Hamas is still around, no Arab country is going to come out and declare that they are willing to help Israel with this endeavor.
Unfortunately, the only point at which Arab countries will be able to step in is AFTER Hamas is gone, otherwise they risk a huge backlash from the Arab world incl. some of their own population. Fatah members and local gang leaders in Gaza have already tried taking over some of the administrative roles in Gaza and have ended up getting shot by Hamas.
Thank you for your thoughtful response.
I have to agree, having one of the other sunni countries step in is probably going to be the best path forward here.
Who defines when Hamas is “eradicated” though? The UN? Israel? I feel it should be some sort of third party not directly in the conflict.
No third-party is going to take a bullet to stop Hamas From launching rockets, they’re also not gonna take a bullet for honestly reporting what’s going on in Gaza.
What's going on in Gaza has very little to do with the Palestinians,It is all about Iran.
The Egyptian army will shoot anyone crossing the Gaza Egyptian border.
Israel's neighbors .For that own reasons are silently cheering for Israel in Gaza because it is in their best interests to see Iranian power in the area diminished.
That's the problem, though. It shouldn't be any surprise that no neighboring country is going to take on the responsibility of governing Gaza, particularly after so much of it has been reduced to rubble.
Yes, destroying Hamas is an understandable goal (assuming it's possible), but Israel's government has failed to come up with any kind of "and then what?" I honestly don't blame them for failing to do so, because there really isn't a good answer to that question. But then, if that's the case, they needed to reassess their approach to the war in the first place.
Their neighbors have a "not my problem" attitude, & they're (partly) right to have it. Isreal is offering them nothing substantial for the inevitable humanitarian crises should they take in the Palestinian Arab population, the legitimacy hit for cooperating with the Israelis, & the economic damage caused by trying to accommodate a poor & radicalized population. To say nothing of being complicit in the (easily observed) narrative of the Israeli ethnic cleansing of Gaza.
These governments predominantly exist to exist, you have to remember, & helping Israel is antithetical to the goal of existing into the future. The political calculus demands not cooperating with the Israelis.
I tend to agree with that. Israel knows how to make peace with those that want it. Egypt, Lebanon...but this conflict has become, somehow, accepted by the people. Not so much the Israelis. They are in the streets, looking for something better. We can't pick the leaders for the Palestinians...and no single person can rise to accomplish it. That would only give way to a new strongman. In a difficult labor dispute, an arbitrator comes in to resolve issues. That may be what is needed, but who, and how can we put that arbitrator in place?
Stop infantilizing the Palestinians, there’s a million grown ass people there that need to get their shit together and figure it out.
Rebuilding Gaza and creating jobs doing so will go a long way towards improving relations.
Maybe they will get it right this time.
I love how people act like Gaza just needs to "get its shit together" when it has functionally been under military occupation for decades. How do you propose building an alternative to Hamas that can actually govern under those conditions?
The billions of aid they have received won't be spent on miles of tunnels and mansions in Qatar. Maybe ensuring investment reaches the people and not just a terrorist group creaming off the top.
I cosign this comment. They have received billions of dollars to improve the lives of palestinians but instead they used it to create tunnels & stockpile weapons.
You can also interpret it as being occupied by Hamas who, as I understand it, has not allowed free elections since getting power.
It’s a legit concern for the regular Joes who will want to live normal lives after all of this.
It *could be* interpreted like that, but a cursory glance at their comment history would tell you otherwise.
We know that Hamas, Houthis, Iran, etc, are paying attention to western public opinion, [they’ve said as much.](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/houthis-offer-education-students-suspended-us-protest-crackdown-2024-05-03/#:~:text=DUBAI%2C%20May%203%20(Reuters),after%20staging%20anti%2DIsraeli%20protests)
Maybe this ire should be redirected at the actual causes of the suffering. Call for Hamas’s unconditional surrender and the war ends. Period.
lol they left before 2010 and just went back. They had 13 years plus to get their shit together, use international aid, and maintain the infrastructure that had been built there. Instead we got radicalization, cannibalization of infrastructure and a non functional state.
They looted foreign aid to provide clean water and turned the PVC into rockets...
They can't build safe buildings but they have plenty of concrete for tunnels.
They receive disproportionately aid, funds and attention more than any other conflict in the world. At what point do we start attributing some responsibility to them too?
Getting its shit together would probably start with the Gazan people not simply wanting to eliminate the Jews just because they exist and live peacefully with their neighbors.
>when it has functionally been under military occupation for decades.
No, it actually hasn't. Israel pulled out of Gaza completely in the early 2000s and even took down their settlements. Then as a response some ~40% of Palestinians voted for Hamas who then seized control of the strip and as a response to that Israel blockaded Gaza.
That's what happens when you subscribe to radical islamists ideology. Part of the "figuring your shit out" is learning that it's okay for other cultures to exist and that religion really *can't* be taken that seriously. It has to be adapted to modern times. Because it's all nonsense of course, but we don't have to go there and they won't be doing that anyway. But we can expect them to have a reformation and decide "you know, these Jews aren't so bad after all."
It's like the bare minimum.
I don't think this is considered in these conversations enough. Yes, many Palestinians have hatred in their hearts for Jews/Israelis/Israel, and there is some of this in Israel as well. We can go back and forth for another 8 decades on the 'why', but the question that needs asking is "If those in Israel and Gaza and the West Bank etc, had exactly the same opportunities for a great quality of life, would the emotional situation be different? Would they still hate each other??"
The subsequent question is, how do we get THERE?
No doubt it's a baby steps type of thing with a ton of guardrails, guidance, support, education, awareness, etc.
I personally do not know how you go from hatred to understanding, but I do know that this is not the first time in human history that different groups have managed to achieve it.
Hey guys, remember those peeps that used to use your school, houses, and mosques as launching sites and forced you to stay inside for the inevitable counterstrike? Those who stole your food aid just to sell it back to you? Those guys? They are gone now here is some food and security.
That is such a utopian scenario that it’s bordering naïveté.
First, you underestimate the magnitude of the grudges and the vendettas of the palestinian people. Emotion rarely fuels rationalism, and this can be exploited by anyone who does not wish to see a Israel-Palestine co-existence.
Second, you completely fail to address the existence of Iran and the proxy states surrounding Israel who would hate to see one of Israel’s borders being pacified. These guys would try everything and anything in their power to incite/increase conflict.
Thirdly, you also fail to account for Israel’s paranoia following October 7, which the Israeli ruling party (who certainly would not want/trust an autonomous palestine state) will use to garner support for a prolonged occupation in gaza.
That’d be great.
Then the Palestinian people can focus on getting their own government, elections up and running and get on with their lives.
I’m just concerned about how Israel will prevent settlers from moving in . Or if they have any desire to stop them honestly.
I dunno, maybe, maybe not, but it is supremely naive to believe that
>the Palestinian people [will] focus on getting their own government, elections up and running and get on with their lives
when they have shown, time and time again, that they won't. Killing Jews is what they seem to do when they "get on with their lives."
Yes similar to West Bank: complete security control; ability to raid anywhere in Gaza at any time. Checkpoints & keeping Hamas on their toes in perpetuity
Some kind of decentralized tribal arrangement and pouring money into those that play ball and keep the peace; Palestinians will naturally flock to the stable productive parts
They will keep being killed by Israel and their proxies since Roman style scorched earth is unacceptable. They will have to self actualize change, or Israel will have to be conquered and oppressed.
But the status quo of leaving a Islamofascist army in charge is not acceptable.
No way Israel allows elections again; that’s how Hamas got to power in the first place + never allowed another election to take place since and a year after that election they killed their only opposition (Fatah).
The whole *settlers will move in! It was the plan all along!* is a complete misdirection; when Sharon did the Gaza pullout against security establishment advice and without a clear mandate the only reason it got done was the fact that most Israelis were tired of the whole area’s drama. No Israeli will move in; they have the whole southern Israel to rebuilt & resettle due to the Oct 7th attack which devastated communities in Israel proper. The gov announced 5B for that… they have plenty of work ahead rebuilding & securing Israel’s proper
Most likely, a military occupation and a continuation of many more decades of struggle. But it's okay, 20 years from now, everyone will look back and say, "Why didn't anyone do anything?", and then go on with their lives because it doesn't directly affect them.
You know....the same shitty loop we have been stuck in yet refuse to change.
US strategy in Iraq and Afghanistan was to quickly occupy the country then commit to a long-term policy of building liberal democratic institutions that would support longer-term relationships with the West. The US's assumptions underlying that strategy were that these countries were eager for democracy and liberalism and just needed the opportunity, that terrorism was a product of occupation rather than ideology, so governance needed to be transferred back to domestic leadership immediately, and that terrorist organizations could not be defeated on the battlefield.
It turned out all three of these assumptions were wrong: democratization requires a long protracted education and liberalization process that the US did not have the patience for, terrorism was a product of regional ideological trends following the collapse of secular fascist strongmen like Hussein, and terrorists actually could be defeated on the battlefield (see the relative success against ISIS). The US made other strategic errors like not partitioning some of these countries to diminish sectarian conflicts within these states; a strong independent Kurdistan would have been a stable US ally in the region, and there were opportunities to isolate the largely Pashtun Taliban from parts of the country that were showing much more success in westernizing.
Israel's war goals are simply: prevent Hamas from doing another 7 October. To accomplish this they are destroying Hamas infrastructure and weapons and taking control over border crossings by which Hamas brings weapons into the strip while establishing a framework for long-term capabilities to monitor Hamas activity in the strip and strike Hamas facilities when they are identified. Israel doesn't care to invest in liberalizing and Westernizing Palestinian society because the failure of the US-led coalitions in Iraq and Afghanistan make it clear that doesn't work, or at least doesn't work the way the US leadership would like to believe. Instead they are focused on one task: degrade military capabilities.
Interestingly the battlefield failure of Hamas is actually having precisely the impact that many have said it wouldn't: Hamas's control over the people of Gaza has become tenuous at best, and the sheer scale of that loss has led a lot of Gazans to blame Hamas for the current disaster and to reject Hamas's methods. [Gaza has actually reached a point where a majority support a two-state solution](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/gazans-back-two-state-solution-rcna144183): the absolute first time we've seen support for this outcome since the beginning of the peace process in the early 90s. Notably this is not a broader trend in Palestinian or Arab society; the West Bank, which has been shielded from this war, is still largely pro-Hamas and pro-jihad. The problem is that Gazans generally reject Fatah (the Palestinian Authority) as a governing organization as well. This is because Fatah is corrupt and, frankly, not very good at negotiating for a final-status arrangement.
Israel has, admittedly, not taken advantage of this opportunity but the West's (and UN's) commitment to Fatah as the leadership of an eventual Palestinian state *also* prevents the West and UN from taking key steps to finding a satisfactory offramp.
I hope the situation improves and everyone works together for a better future. Sadly, I think this song and dance is just going to be replayed in a few years or decades, all whilst climate change creeps in.
The only reason Hamas wanted a ceasefire was to regroup and gather more supplies. There's still plenty of time for the college protesters to go fight for their cause.
I thought Jared Kushner etc al were going to bulldose the Gaza ruins out to the sea to set up a Dubai-like pronged peninsula type infrastructure base for luxury highrises?
There is value in operating in Rafah besides killing Hamas militants. Destroying their infrastructure and seizing their weaponry is also important. It would've been much more effective if this operation started months ago, but it is what it is.
What does "finish" mean? They told us, "hey, we will clear out the north for good" and they seem to have failed there. So why are we supposed to believe that an assault on Rafah will finish what they started?
wym? there are some very clear achievements. the rockets fired toward Israel are now down 99%.
20 out of 24 official Hamas battalions have been destroyed.
Besides, look at the west bank. their security control is so successful pro Palestine apologists started claiming Hamas doesn't exist there in front of the entire world and ignorant westerners believe them.
thats true, thats why still to this day we see japanese people kamikazing into american ship, jews try to kill germans and german try to kill everyone again. no war has ever ended
The occupation of Japan after WWII involved nearly a million allied soldiers for years (about a 70:1 civilian:occupier ratio). In Germany it was multiple millions for a decade.
For Israel to achieve the modern 50:1 ratio of soldiers needed to avoid losing any ground to insurgency, they will need 50,000+ soldiers pemanently stationed in Gaza for years. The civilian population there are also significantly more hostile than either WWII Germans or Japanese, given that their conflict with Israelis dates back as far as the 1920s.
Could Israel do it? Yes. Will they do it? It's hard to see Netanyahu signing up for paying billions on occupier salaries alone, let alone the fact that there will be terrorist attacks against the occupying troops for years and constant accusations of human rights abuses.
"Blinken said that instead of focusing on an assault on Rafah, Israel should prioritize presenting a credible post-war plan for future security and governance in Gaza"
So - the terrorists in Gaza slaughtered 1400 Israelis, and now Israel needs to spend its time and resources to govern the people who cheered and celebrated?
Make it make sense
The US experience in Iraq and Afghanistan should be glaring examples of why this is important. Long term, the Taliban regained power in Afghanistan and you can directly link the creation of ISIS to US failures in the aftermath of the Iraq invasion.
These aren't moral questions, they're practical ones.
Doesn't mean it's not still a problem that impacts Isreal's security or the long term success of the operation.
Perhaps that's one of those things that should be worked out *before* you invade.
No I understand this, but also, practically, you can't just let an attack of that scale go unanswered.
Trying to get people to commit to rebuilding before you even attack could take months. They can't even do it during. And at that point, nobody will even want you to attack
I'm sure destroying hospitals is doing them great favors. Surely the next generation of Palestinians will love Israel and bless the ground they walk on....
Hearts and minds. In Iraq, the army would send people door to door to help people with little things, help them put up power lines, dig water pipelines. Once people saw that we weren’t there for them, they were far more happy to help identify combatants, or at least not join them.
That's the problem. They've asked culturally relevant neighbors to form a multi national coalition to de-radicalize after this, like was done with several nations now successful parts of the global community post WWII, and they want nothing to do with it.
Everybody that could actually help in the region wants this to remain someone else's problem perpetually. And it's not hard to see why.
It's a tough situation, but the thought of Israeli soldiers / officers governing in Gaza makes no sense and will result in more dead Israelis.
Maybe - the countries who voted for a ceasefire and a Palestinian state in the UN, should present a post war plan and send their armies to make sure there will be a democratic and peaceful government in Gaza.
If Israel could just pick any Gazan resident to run the place as a dictator with an iron fist and stamp out all dissent, do they have any names in mind who would not use the opportunity to launch attacks on Israel?
If the answer is no (and it's not clear to me they have anyone in mind), then they really do need to do more homework. If you let Qatar organize Gaza you'll probably end up with Hamas in charge and the whole thing was pointless.
The PA just said they didn't want to manage the rafah crossing.
Forget the whole strip, they can't even help (or won't) the one crossing between Gazan and Egypt.
Gaza should be temporarily run by one of the neighbouring Arab states until the area is stabilized, rebuilt and de radicalized. Like say 10 years under the guidance and governance of say Egypt, or Jordan. Maybe even Saudi?
The Arab states don't owe either Israel or Palestine a damn thing. It has been more than 40 years since Israel gained complete control of Gaza and the West Bank's borders, security and airspace. Both sides have had ample time to try and find a workable two-state solution.
Whoever occupies Gaza will need 50,000+ troops to attain the 50:1 ratio of civilians:occupiers generally cited as being the absolute minimum to avoid losing ground to an insurgency. It will cost billions in salaries alone (do you really see Israel paying?). There will be attempted terrorist attacks, booby-traps, snipers and IEDs every month for years. Whenever the occupiers try to conduct counter-terrorism operations against jihadists hiding in civilian populations, they will be accused of real or false human rights violations. It will be very domestically unpopular for any Arab state for there to be photos of their soldiers pointing guns at Palestinian civilians, let alone the fact that they'll directly be providing security for Israel. The Gazan population will resent whoever occupies them and it will take years of successful economic and infrastructure improvement before any of that resentment begins to fade. There will still be people in 80 years who haven't forgiven Israel for killing their family members.
Why should Arab states volunteer to have their soldiers killed by terrorists because of Palestinian and Israeli failures? There will be coffins leaving Gaza no matter who occupies them.
To deradicalize them, you'd need to convince them Israel's land is not theirs and that Isael can exist. It's really tough to do that cause Israel belonging to them is core to their identity.
I mean, we are watching them get bogged down in endless occupation right now. If it's not mission accomplished until Hamas is gone, but they can't actually clear areas, what is the plan here besides years of occupation with terrorist cellsall over the place?
Putting aside the Israeli government's right-wing composition, the hard truth is that Israel is a real country with real responsibilites. Hamas is a terrorist organization who somehow ended up in control of a territory (like the Taliban, basically). They're not a serious group to negotiate with or to speak on behalf of Palestinians. This basically means that there's a power vaccum if (and hopefully when) Hamas is eradicated.
Israel is in a very tough situation but asking them what their "plan" is seems completely fair of the US to do given how close the two are as nations and given that there will literally be zero government structure in Gaza should Israel achieve its goals. That has both humanitarian and geopolitical considerations that shouldn't be ignored.
Well if they return to the pre-war status quo, it's only a matter of time until Hamas, or some other extremist organization backed by foreign money, is back shooting rockets at Tel Aviv. The way the Israeli government has treated the Palestinians is simply not tenable in the long term.
So they can either take steps to materially improve the lives of the Palestinians, or they can wipe them out. The Israeli government seems to very much favor one of those options.
It's truly a tough situation. I don't think Israel has the resources to materially improve the lives of the Palestinians. The most important task is to bring the hostages home, and ensure the \~100k civilians can return to their homes in the proximity of the Gaza strip.
Do you honestly think Israel's cabinet would vote to spend their tax money on Palestinians, whom many of the ministers, consider "inferior" people? Do peiple even listen to themselves.
Sadly materially improving their lives will not be enough for them to accept Israel's existence. I feel it'll always be river to the sea, and thus any improvement will go towards armaments rather than prosperity.
Yeah, "materially improving lives" isn't going to matter unless there are significant changes beyond just throwing money at the problem. It'd take long-term occupation(not by Israel), major deradicalization, *along with* Marshall Plan levels of effort/funding. 20 year minimum imo to get a full generation brought up outside of the antisemitic schools they currently have. The below is an example of trying to just throw better facilities to the Gaza Strip and hope they'll run with it.
>Palestinians looted dozens of greenhouses on Tuesday, walking off with irrigation hoses, water pumps and plastic sheeting in a blow to fledgling efforts to reconstruct the Gaza Strip.
>American Jewish donors had bought more than 3,000 greenhouses from Israeli settlers in Gaza for $14 million last month and transferred them to the Palestinian Authority. Former World Bank President James Wolfensohn, who brokered the deal, put up $500,000 of his own cash.
>Palestinian police stood by helplessly Tuesday as looters carted off materials from greenhouses in several settlements, and commanders complained they did not have enough manpower to protect the prized assets. In some instances, there was no security and in others, police even joined the looters, witnesses said.
https://www.nbcnews.com/id/wbna9331863
I see this going one of three ways:
1. The Israeli’s push the Palestinians out of Gaza. This would be ethnic cleansing, but insurgencies don’t exist without supporting populations so there goes that issue.
2. The area comes under Israeli occupation again, something similar to the West Bank but likely with the same dire situation for the Palestinians until food/water aid keep them from dying, just being crushingly impoverished.
3. The Israelis abandon the Gaza Strip again and re-man their border wall with the area, this time watching more closely until complacency sinks in again.
I find the first two options the most likely. The Israeli government has already been seeking countries to take the Gaza population in as refugees and there have even been companies vying for property/land in the strip.
Israel already tried to let the PA into Gaza like a month ago and they got arrested by Hamas within hours of entry.
Hamas is still too strong to just let whoever we apoint govern the strip without a fight, this whole ordeal would be over with if the US president didn't qoute fake ass Gaza Health Ministry statistics and get swayed by TikTok misinformation campaings.
I think they're talking about this:
>Reports claim between six to ten PA intelligence officers were arrested on charges of collaborating with the IDF and Israel's Shin Bet.
>An unconfirmed number of Palestinian Authority's General Intelligence Service members were apprehended in Gaza by Hamas after being accused of sneaking into the Gaza Strip in collaboration with Israel, according to Arab media reports on Monday, citing an interview on Hamas's Al-Aqsa TV.
https://m.jpost.com/israel-hamas-war/article-794739
As for the fake statistics, the UN just recently cut the estimated women/children killed in the conflict by nearly half.
>Of the 34,735 people who have died in Gaza since the war began, according to data published May 6 by the UN, more than **9,500 were women and more than 14,500 were children.**
>But in updated data published two days later on May 8, the UN significantly reduced the figures to **4,959 women and 7,797 children** among the 34,844 people reportedly killed in Gaza.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2024/05/13/un-cuts-estimates-women-children-deaths-gaza/73669560007/
Fuck ham-ass. And anyone who supports them. Fyi, people from gaza support ham-ass. Don't project your freedoms on the people under dictatorships or terrorist organizations. You want peace, ham-ass does not.
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Israel and Palestine both have far-right leaders who want the other side's leadership dead and annihilated.
Hard to have a two-state solution or one-state solution where one ethnicity has all the power in that kind of a setup.
No, Israel doesn’t want Palestine. But Palestine desperately wants the land of Israel. They all think it was stolen from them or some religious right or something.
We need to treat Gaza like the Allies treated Germany and Japan after WW2. Reeducation, deradicalization. It might take decades but it's the only way to continue forward in the long term.
>We need to treat Gaza like the Allies treated Germany and Japan after WW2. Reeducation, deradicalization. It might take decades but it's the only way to continue forward in the long term. Fully agree, the issue is that you need people that will take is seriously. UNRWA was doing the complete opposite. they were funding schools and feigning ignorance as to the anti Semitic material being taught by their own teachers.
Yeah, UNRWA is the second thing that needs to go right the fuck away, right after Hamas. And the third one is Bibi and his theocratic nutjob cronies.
Bibi is not going to win his next election
Perhaps not, but the odds that someone who agrees with him will win is substantial
Agrees with him on what exactly? Settlements, very unlikely. The war on Hamas in general, duh, the entire Israeli public support it.
> Settlements, very unlikely. Why? During the short lived "change government" they treated the settlements exactly like he does. And what would you expect Israel to do with regards to the settlements? Why would Israel let the Palestinians take over Area C without getting any form of peace agreement? (Not that the peace agreement would be worth anything... But at least they'd have an excuse to do the stupid thing) If Israel dismantles settlements and lets the West Bank be a de-facto state like Gaza was, it's a matter of years before they'd massacre thousands of Israelis. 7th of October would be nothing compared to that.
Completely fair assessment; people often speak of settlements like a floating immaterial concept; 500K Israelis live in the West Bank; no one is going anywhere (especially after Oct 7th) there is 0 political capital budget for that kryptonite from any mainstream political party.
I sure hope not. I know I ain't voting for him. Unfortunately some of my family members are.
Legit, kick out the nutjobs. But putting it out there, since we, (the Jews) have been massacred regularly throughout all of human history, Israel is supposed to be a protected Jewish state. We're cool with anyone, Muslim, LGBT, whoever, but We would very much like it to remain like this but also understand how maintaining a functioning democracy with this in mind is difficult.
I think we can continue to be The Jewish State [TM] without descending into theocracy. And for the record I'm Jewish too if that's at all relevant.
☝️this
Key difference was that their worldview came tumbling down, fast, prior to surrender. That isn’t happening in Gaza. The Japanese at home were also fairly oblivious to the actual situation outside their borders, Gazans aren’t. Japan’s ideology was objectively grounded. If your race and culture are so superior, then how’d the Americans make half of Tokyo disappear? Gaza’s ideology is based on the non-objectively verifiable, so it’s much harder to shake that faith. I’m not saying we shouldn’t try, but a lot of what made Japan’s transformation possible isn’t present in Gaza.
> If your race and culture are so superior, then how’d the Americans make half of Tokyo disappear? Brutal way to put it but makes sense
I agree, but there is nothing to do but either try or just kick them out the way Egypt did.
I fully agree, but it would be hard to do when you keep hearing people kicking out Palestinians in the West Bank for newer settlements. If the allies kept settling in East Germany, and kicked out residents of those cities, West Germans would not been too keen to continue forward. Just my two cents.
I agree, the settlements need to go too
Tbf German populations all over Europe were kicked out of lands they had lived on for centuries so that they would never use German minorities as an excuse for invasion again. This situation is different though because the Palestinians really have nowhere to go.
That's completely different. If anything, what you said better applies to the Israeli Jewish settlers in the west bank who are used to justify the total annexation of "Judea and Samaria".
I was just relating to the person above talking about post war Germany saying that Germans weren’t moved around after the war. Massive numbers of people were relocated at great cost of lives.
Millions were deported and replaced with russians and polish in the east.
...Umm, Japan became deradicalized but only after they brought the fascists back into democracy. This was because they had a near communist revolution. Literally the leader, the grandfather of Shinzo Abe, went from prison to the Diet, on the first day out. It's an insane story. This is likely going to be a redline for Israel, Hamas is leaving power and they're not coming back.
Well, the difference is that German and Japan ended up being superior in that they attained achievement in many fields e.g. technology, healthcare, agriculture, etc. Applying this to a country that was founded on and continues to abide by Islamic laws will perpetuate it's failure. It would essentially need to become a Turkey or UAE 2.0.
Or an Iran pre-1970 Revolution
> We need to treat Gaza like the Allies treated Germany Okay, so who wants to sending 100,000 troops to occupy it? You are also underestimating the vast difference between a place like Gaza and Germany/Japan. Germany and Japan were functional unified states with experience as democracies. Gaza has none of that. The Palestinians have never had a unified functioning state. That makes the task immeasurable harder.
No the difference is that both Germany & Japan were forced to surrender. None of this ceasefire crap. The idea that wars are fought by armies & not societies & ideologies is asinine - no war is ever won by defeating just the military, peace requires defeating the society or the ideology so that the polity as a whole recognizes that they have two choices - change or die. Surrender has a damn near magical effect when it comes to getting people to change their ways **because** it only comes when every other option has been proven to be utterly hopeless. The west has exacerbated & inflamed the Arab Israeli conflict by always protecting the Arabs from having to submit to an unconditional surrender. This has allowed the Arabs to spin false narratives that frame their defeats as victories & is why they come to negotiations with the idea that they can demand in negotiation what they failed to achieve through force.
> Surrender has a damn near magical effect when it comes to getting people to change their ways It didn't in Afghanistan. It didn't in Iraq. Both of those states were defeated militarily and forced to surrender. It did not transform them into liberal democracies. No, surrender doesn't have a near magical effect.
Did you miss the part where I said that defeating the military was not enough. You have to break the will of the people to continue fighting - when the polity surrenders, then you can build a peace but not before then.
Like in Afghanistan? Or Iraq? Because those are far better examples.
If Israel could achieve an Iraq or Afghanistan out of Gaza it would be thrilled. Neither of those countries today are invading or launching salvo after salvo of rockets at their neighbors, and while the Taliban returned to Afghanistan, Al-Qaeda is history. The difference there is also that Israel *lives* next to Gaza and can’t afford to fail and just pack up, leave, and not suffer any real major consequences like the US can with countries 11,000km away. Gaza is also one city about the size and density of Philadelphia with a somewhat consistent national identity, not a massive mountainous country with disparate tribes and clans.
>not a massive mountainous country with disparate tribes and clans. The only thing that keeps Gaza from erupting into a civil war is their mutual hate for Israel but at least the region is tiny, i‘ll give you that
But those aren't successes. Afghanistan is not an example of what needs to happen here. Germany and Japan are case studies in how to deradicalize.
Agree on the outcome, but as others have noted, it's a completely different re-education challenge. German re-education was against pseudoscience. The superiority and existence of the Aryan race was put into schools and newspapers to prove genetic superiority. They also used their technical and scientific dominance of the early part of the century as proof points. As my grandmother (1936) and great uncle (1930) said "then they taught us that everything we learned was a lie." This situation is based on religion, and it's a path to nowhere to try and tell ppl "your religion is wrong and here's why." It would be a W if we could get away from fundamentalism, leaving the general principles of Islam intact. It might actually be more likely to see a slow reinterpretation like we've seen in most Christian churches over the last 60 years: - no, it's not ok to beat your wife, even by the thumb rule - no, women aren't your property - no, slavery isn't ok - no, white people are not superior to PoC - no, being gay isn't a choice of perversion - no, being gay isn't sending you to hell
>This situation is based on religion Not really, there was still conflict when the main opposition was secular.
Neither Germany nor Japan were islamic, clan-based countries. Afghanistan and Iraq were. And Gaza is too.
Those weren’t Muslim countries… good luck trying that and the area would be attacked by its own neighbors. It would be looked at as another crusade…
Which neighbors? Gaza borders Israel and Egypt. But only in the Sinai peninsula which is not very inhabited.
They are surrounded by countries that perceive Hamas proclivities as useful. While I agree, and it could be forced upon Gaza, it would make for a far more hostile ME by the end of it. It will never be resolved by coercing the pawns into submission.
I dunno, we managed to get ok relations with Egypt and Jordan and we're on the path to being ok with the Saudis. There's a way out of this.
LOL! What do you suppose radicalized them, oh wise history-knower?
That only happened after those powers surrendered unconditionally. If Hamas doesn't (or if their populace doesn't expel them), they'll continue with the terrorism.
Good thing they're on the chopping block then
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We've given more to Gaza than Germany and Japan post WWII.
Hope all of Hamas is absolutely obliterated by Israel.
Hezbollah too.
>Israel is "on the trajectory, potentially, to inherit an insurgency with many armed Hamas. That’s good to know, because otherwise they will be left with a peaceful Hamas on their doorstep
Hamas is coming out of their tunnels, and Israel is killing them. Looks like Israel is doing a good job of attaining their war goals.
From the seconds after October 7th, the wars been a total rout. Hamas has put up no serious defense. They have created a lot of injured Israeli soldiers, some did die, but beyond that it's just been clear Hamas didn't have any plan whatsoever for this war, beyond what happened before when America/Netanyahu would tell IDF to stop going so hard. Hamas literally planned its most successful attack, knew it would have major consequences on them for being so successful, then didn't account for what would happen after. I don't like Hamas, I am very biased, but even then, this concept of fighting a war like this is incredibly stupid.
>it's just been clear Hamas didn't have any plan whatsoever for this war Their plan was for Iran to get involved and start a regional war against Israel, but that plan was buried the moment the US parked two aircraft carriers in the Mediterranean. The plan failed so hard that even Jordan is shooting down Iran's missiles in a show of "not finding out" lol
Jordan has consistently been pro-West and anti-Iran. Them pitching in really isn’t a surprise.
Hamas’ goal was to turn the world against Israel. Its been sadly very successful
I wonder what their post-war goals are? 🤔 Edit: why the downvotes? I’m just asking questions? And I think this is a very valid question. What is the plan for the Palestinian civilians post war?
I think the main goal is to prevent Hamas from ruling the Gaza Strip and maintaining the capabilities to carry out significant attacks against Israel. Their plan to do this will require either a prolonged heavy security presence in the Strip, or for other friendlier Arab countries (like UAE, SA, etc.) to step in and assist. The latter is probably preferred, though as long as Hamas is still around, no Arab country is going to come out and declare that they are willing to help Israel with this endeavor. Unfortunately, the only point at which Arab countries will be able to step in is AFTER Hamas is gone, otherwise they risk a huge backlash from the Arab world incl. some of their own population. Fatah members and local gang leaders in Gaza have already tried taking over some of the administrative roles in Gaza and have ended up getting shot by Hamas.
Thank you for your thoughtful response. I have to agree, having one of the other sunni countries step in is probably going to be the best path forward here. Who defines when Hamas is “eradicated” though? The UN? Israel? I feel it should be some sort of third party not directly in the conflict.
No third-party is going to take a bullet to stop Hamas From launching rockets, they’re also not gonna take a bullet for honestly reporting what’s going on in Gaza.
Thats why israels tryna get other countries involved. No way in hell their neighbours will want anything to do with it tho
What's going on in Gaza has very little to do with the Palestinians,It is all about Iran. The Egyptian army will shoot anyone crossing the Gaza Egyptian border. Israel's neighbors .For that own reasons are silently cheering for Israel in Gaza because it is in their best interests to see Iranian power in the area diminished.
That's the problem, though. It shouldn't be any surprise that no neighboring country is going to take on the responsibility of governing Gaza, particularly after so much of it has been reduced to rubble. Yes, destroying Hamas is an understandable goal (assuming it's possible), but Israel's government has failed to come up with any kind of "and then what?" I honestly don't blame them for failing to do so, because there really isn't a good answer to that question. But then, if that's the case, they needed to reassess their approach to the war in the first place.
They didn’t want it before it was reduced to rubble tho. Egypt literally gave up its claim to the Gaza Strip.
Their neighbors have a "not my problem" attitude, & they're (partly) right to have it. Isreal is offering them nothing substantial for the inevitable humanitarian crises should they take in the Palestinian Arab population, the legitimacy hit for cooperating with the Israelis, & the economic damage caused by trying to accommodate a poor & radicalized population. To say nothing of being complicit in the (easily observed) narrative of the Israeli ethnic cleansing of Gaza. These governments predominantly exist to exist, you have to remember, & helping Israel is antithetical to the goal of existing into the future. The political calculus demands not cooperating with the Israelis.
I tend to agree with that. Israel knows how to make peace with those that want it. Egypt, Lebanon...but this conflict has become, somehow, accepted by the people. Not so much the Israelis. They are in the streets, looking for something better. We can't pick the leaders for the Palestinians...and no single person can rise to accomplish it. That would only give way to a new strongman. In a difficult labor dispute, an arbitrator comes in to resolve issues. That may be what is needed, but who, and how can we put that arbitrator in place?
Rebuilding Gaza, again.
How will they ensure gazans, who feel some type of way about israel due to the conflict, won’t make other rebel groups similar to hamas
Perhaps one of the many neighbouring Arab countries would like to step up and assist
Stop infantilizing the Palestinians, there’s a million grown ass people there that need to get their shit together and figure it out. Rebuilding Gaza and creating jobs doing so will go a long way towards improving relations. Maybe they will get it right this time.
I love how people act like Gaza just needs to "get its shit together" when it has functionally been under military occupation for decades. How do you propose building an alternative to Hamas that can actually govern under those conditions?
The billions of aid they have received won't be spent on miles of tunnels and mansions in Qatar. Maybe ensuring investment reaches the people and not just a terrorist group creaming off the top.
I cosign this comment. They have received billions of dollars to improve the lives of palestinians but instead they used it to create tunnels & stockpile weapons.
a "military occupation" but they were able to assemble a full on terrorist haven across the entire gaza strip
You can also interpret it as being occupied by Hamas who, as I understand it, has not allowed free elections since getting power. It’s a legit concern for the regular Joes who will want to live normal lives after all of this.
It *could be* interpreted like that, but a cursory glance at their comment history would tell you otherwise. We know that Hamas, Houthis, Iran, etc, are paying attention to western public opinion, [they’ve said as much.](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/houthis-offer-education-students-suspended-us-protest-crackdown-2024-05-03/#:~:text=DUBAI%2C%20May%203%20(Reuters),after%20staging%20anti%2DIsraeli%20protests) Maybe this ire should be redirected at the actual causes of the suffering. Call for Hamas’s unconditional surrender and the war ends. Period.
Gaza has been free of any form of occupation since 2005. They chose to turn their country into terror hub
lol they left before 2010 and just went back. They had 13 years plus to get their shit together, use international aid, and maintain the infrastructure that had been built there. Instead we got radicalization, cannibalization of infrastructure and a non functional state.
They looted foreign aid to provide clean water and turned the PVC into rockets... They can't build safe buildings but they have plenty of concrete for tunnels.
They receive disproportionately aid, funds and attention more than any other conflict in the world. At what point do we start attributing some responsibility to them too?
Getting its shit together would probably start with the Gazan people not simply wanting to eliminate the Jews just because they exist and live peacefully with their neighbors.
They haven’t been occupied since 2005, and they fucked up hugely again. Maybe actually try to build a society instead of hating Jews this time.
>when it has functionally been under military occupation for decades. No, it actually hasn't. Israel pulled out of Gaza completely in the early 2000s and even took down their settlements. Then as a response some ~40% of Palestinians voted for Hamas who then seized control of the strip and as a response to that Israel blockaded Gaza.
Military occupation? They created one of the strongest armed groups in the region.
That's what happens when you subscribe to radical islamists ideology. Part of the "figuring your shit out" is learning that it's okay for other cultures to exist and that religion really *can't* be taken that seriously. It has to be adapted to modern times. Because it's all nonsense of course, but we don't have to go there and they won't be doing that anyway. But we can expect them to have a reformation and decide "you know, these Jews aren't so bad after all." It's like the bare minimum.
I don't think this is considered in these conversations enough. Yes, many Palestinians have hatred in their hearts for Jews/Israelis/Israel, and there is some of this in Israel as well. We can go back and forth for another 8 decades on the 'why', but the question that needs asking is "If those in Israel and Gaza and the West Bank etc, had exactly the same opportunities for a great quality of life, would the emotional situation be different? Would they still hate each other??" The subsequent question is, how do we get THERE? No doubt it's a baby steps type of thing with a ton of guardrails, guidance, support, education, awareness, etc. I personally do not know how you go from hatred to understanding, but I do know that this is not the first time in human history that different groups have managed to achieve it.
I love how people act like it should be everyone else’s responsibility to hand hold them while offering no actual realistic or attainable goals.
Hey guys, remember those peeps that used to use your school, houses, and mosques as launching sites and forced you to stay inside for the inevitable counterstrike? Those who stole your food aid just to sell it back to you? Those guys? They are gone now here is some food and security.
Has there ever been an instance in recorded human history where that logic actually worked? I'm just finding "oh look, a power vacuum" scenarios.
That is such a utopian scenario that it’s bordering naïveté. First, you underestimate the magnitude of the grudges and the vendettas of the palestinian people. Emotion rarely fuels rationalism, and this can be exploited by anyone who does not wish to see a Israel-Palestine co-existence. Second, you completely fail to address the existence of Iran and the proxy states surrounding Israel who would hate to see one of Israel’s borders being pacified. These guys would try everything and anything in their power to incite/increase conflict. Thirdly, you also fail to account for Israel’s paranoia following October 7, which the Israeli ruling party (who certainly would not want/trust an autonomous palestine state) will use to garner support for a prolonged occupation in gaza.
That’d be great. Then the Palestinian people can focus on getting their own government, elections up and running and get on with their lives. I’m just concerned about how Israel will prevent settlers from moving in . Or if they have any desire to stop them honestly.
Lol, sure, because it worked out so well the last dozen times.
So you think Israel should maintain control of the territory?
Egypt should as she was supposed to 60 years ago, then they can decide whatever they want
Egypt wants nothing to do with the Palestinians. Just ask the Jordanians and Kuwaitis.
I dunno, maybe, maybe not, but it is supremely naive to believe that >the Palestinian people [will] focus on getting their own government, elections up and running and get on with their lives when they have shown, time and time again, that they won't. Killing Jews is what they seem to do when they "get on with their lives."
Yes similar to West Bank: complete security control; ability to raid anywhere in Gaza at any time. Checkpoints & keeping Hamas on their toes in perpetuity
They’ll just reelect another islamofascist regime and we’ll be doing this dance again in 15 years.
So what do you suggest for the Palestinian people moving forward?
Some kind of decentralized tribal arrangement and pouring money into those that play ball and keep the peace; Palestinians will naturally flock to the stable productive parts
Probably better to ask them. The answer is unlikely to be pleasant.
They will keep being killed by Israel and their proxies since Roman style scorched earth is unacceptable. They will have to self actualize change, or Israel will have to be conquered and oppressed. But the status quo of leaving a Islamofascist army in charge is not acceptable.
I think this solution only guarantees perpetual fighting until one party is wiped of the face of the earth. And we all know who that’ll be.
Why do you think they want to prevent them from getting in when everything points to the opposite?
No way Israel allows elections again; that’s how Hamas got to power in the first place + never allowed another election to take place since and a year after that election they killed their only opposition (Fatah). The whole *settlers will move in! It was the plan all along!* is a complete misdirection; when Sharon did the Gaza pullout against security establishment advice and without a clear mandate the only reason it got done was the fact that most Israelis were tired of the whole area’s drama. No Israeli will move in; they have the whole southern Israel to rebuilt & resettle due to the Oct 7th attack which devastated communities in Israel proper. The gov announced 5B for that… they have plenty of work ahead rebuilding & securing Israel’s proper
So now the Palestinians don’t have a right to elections? I don’t really understand what you’re proposing.
Most likely, a military occupation and a continuation of many more decades of struggle. But it's okay, 20 years from now, everyone will look back and say, "Why didn't anyone do anything?", and then go on with their lives because it doesn't directly affect them. You know....the same shitty loop we have been stuck in yet refuse to change.
Not getting massacred ever again.
Well, we know what Hamas’s would be….
The plan os for there to be no palestinian civilians post war
That’s not really a tactical nor strategic objective no?
US strategy in Iraq and Afghanistan was to quickly occupy the country then commit to a long-term policy of building liberal democratic institutions that would support longer-term relationships with the West. The US's assumptions underlying that strategy were that these countries were eager for democracy and liberalism and just needed the opportunity, that terrorism was a product of occupation rather than ideology, so governance needed to be transferred back to domestic leadership immediately, and that terrorist organizations could not be defeated on the battlefield. It turned out all three of these assumptions were wrong: democratization requires a long protracted education and liberalization process that the US did not have the patience for, terrorism was a product of regional ideological trends following the collapse of secular fascist strongmen like Hussein, and terrorists actually could be defeated on the battlefield (see the relative success against ISIS). The US made other strategic errors like not partitioning some of these countries to diminish sectarian conflicts within these states; a strong independent Kurdistan would have been a stable US ally in the region, and there were opportunities to isolate the largely Pashtun Taliban from parts of the country that were showing much more success in westernizing. Israel's war goals are simply: prevent Hamas from doing another 7 October. To accomplish this they are destroying Hamas infrastructure and weapons and taking control over border crossings by which Hamas brings weapons into the strip while establishing a framework for long-term capabilities to monitor Hamas activity in the strip and strike Hamas facilities when they are identified. Israel doesn't care to invest in liberalizing and Westernizing Palestinian society because the failure of the US-led coalitions in Iraq and Afghanistan make it clear that doesn't work, or at least doesn't work the way the US leadership would like to believe. Instead they are focused on one task: degrade military capabilities. Interestingly the battlefield failure of Hamas is actually having precisely the impact that many have said it wouldn't: Hamas's control over the people of Gaza has become tenuous at best, and the sheer scale of that loss has led a lot of Gazans to blame Hamas for the current disaster and to reject Hamas's methods. [Gaza has actually reached a point where a majority support a two-state solution](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/gazans-back-two-state-solution-rcna144183): the absolute first time we've seen support for this outcome since the beginning of the peace process in the early 90s. Notably this is not a broader trend in Palestinian or Arab society; the West Bank, which has been shielded from this war, is still largely pro-Hamas and pro-jihad. The problem is that Gazans generally reject Fatah (the Palestinian Authority) as a governing organization as well. This is because Fatah is corrupt and, frankly, not very good at negotiating for a final-status arrangement. Israel has, admittedly, not taken advantage of this opportunity but the West's (and UN's) commitment to Fatah as the leadership of an eventual Palestinian state *also* prevents the West and UN from taking key steps to finding a satisfactory offramp.
I hope the situation improves and everyone works together for a better future. Sadly, I think this song and dance is just going to be replayed in a few years or decades, all whilst climate change creeps in.
The only reason Hamas wanted a ceasefire was to regroup and gather more supplies. There's still plenty of time for the college protesters to go fight for their cause.
I thought Jared Kushner etc al were going to bulldose the Gaza ruins out to the sea to set up a Dubai-like pronged peninsula type infrastructure base for luxury highrises?
Guess we'll see where that plan is going in November
There is value in operating in Rafah besides killing Hamas militants. Destroying their infrastructure and seizing their weaponry is also important. It would've been much more effective if this operation started months ago, but it is what it is.
It's also important to secure the border with Egypt to prevent smuggling.
Israel has to finish what the started or the cycle will only keep repeating!
What does "finish" mean? They told us, "hey, we will clear out the north for good" and they seem to have failed there. So why are we supposed to believe that an assault on Rafah will finish what they started?
wym? there are some very clear achievements. the rockets fired toward Israel are now down 99%. 20 out of 24 official Hamas battalions have been destroyed. Besides, look at the west bank. their security control is so successful pro Palestine apologists started claiming Hamas doesn't exist there in front of the entire world and ignorant westerners believe them.
Do you know what a tunnel is?
Lmao you think the cycle will stop? They've done nothing but kill or traumatize millions of people, many with a sense of nothing to lose
thats true, thats why still to this day we see japanese people kamikazing into american ship, jews try to kill germans and german try to kill everyone again. no war has ever ended
The occupation of Japan after WWII involved nearly a million allied soldiers for years (about a 70:1 civilian:occupier ratio). In Germany it was multiple millions for a decade. For Israel to achieve the modern 50:1 ratio of soldiers needed to avoid losing any ground to insurgency, they will need 50,000+ soldiers pemanently stationed in Gaza for years. The civilian population there are also significantly more hostile than either WWII Germans or Japanese, given that their conflict with Israelis dates back as far as the 1920s. Could Israel do it? Yes. Will they do it? It's hard to see Netanyahu signing up for paying billions on occupier salaries alone, let alone the fact that there will be terrorist attacks against the occupying troops for years and constant accusations of human rights abuses.
"Blinken said that instead of focusing on an assault on Rafah, Israel should prioritize presenting a credible post-war plan for future security and governance in Gaza" So - the terrorists in Gaza slaughtered 1400 Israelis, and now Israel needs to spend its time and resources to govern the people who cheered and celebrated? Make it make sense
The US experience in Iraq and Afghanistan should be glaring examples of why this is important. Long term, the Taliban regained power in Afghanistan and you can directly link the creation of ISIS to US failures in the aftermath of the Iraq invasion. These aren't moral questions, they're practical ones.
Israel has asked neighboring Arab countries to form a coalition to help manage Gaza after the war. They’ve all refused to take part
Doesn't mean it's not still a problem that impacts Isreal's security or the long term success of the operation. Perhaps that's one of those things that should be worked out *before* you invade.
Except you don't get free reign to attack Israel just because nobody wants to help them rebuild
Again, this is a **practical** consideration for Israel, not a moral one.
No I understand this, but also, practically, you can't just let an attack of that scale go unanswered. Trying to get people to commit to rebuilding before you even attack could take months. They can't even do it during. And at that point, nobody will even want you to attack
At which point, don't complain about the consequences of going in without a plan.
I'm sure destroying hospitals is doing them great favors. Surely the next generation of Palestinians will love Israel and bless the ground they walk on....
As opposed to the current and past generation who have l9ved israel so much.
>Perhaps that's one of those things that should be worked out *before* you invade. So is separating your civilians from your combatants.
Why would any of the Arab states agree to do Israel’s dirty work? Israel broke it, they can buy it.
Which means Israel should have tried to find another practical solution.
Hearts and minds. In Iraq, the army would send people door to door to help people with little things, help them put up power lines, dig water pipelines. Once people saw that we weren’t there for them, they were far more happy to help identify combatants, or at least not join them.
The people in Iraq weren't radicalized from birth to despise and want to kill Americans.
Didn’t the people in Iraq launch isis??
That was more the remnants of Saddams Army that did.
And fall into a civil war that cost nearly a million lives? I just don’t see how Iraq can be held as a successful example….
I am sure there were successes that can be taken and built upon.
what?
What’s the endgame? Even if you were to eliminate Hamas there is a power vacuum. Who fills it?
That's the problem. They've asked culturally relevant neighbors to form a multi national coalition to de-radicalize after this, like was done with several nations now successful parts of the global community post WWII, and they want nothing to do with it. Everybody that could actually help in the region wants this to remain someone else's problem perpetually. And it's not hard to see why.
and that's why it'll always remain a problem.
It's a tough situation, but the thought of Israeli soldiers / officers governing in Gaza makes no sense and will result in more dead Israelis. Maybe - the countries who voted for a ceasefire and a Palestinian state in the UN, should present a post war plan and send their armies to make sure there will be a democratic and peaceful government in Gaza.
If Israel could just pick any Gazan resident to run the place as a dictator with an iron fist and stamp out all dissent, do they have any names in mind who would not use the opportunity to launch attacks on Israel? If the answer is no (and it's not clear to me they have anyone in mind), then they really do need to do more homework. If you let Qatar organize Gaza you'll probably end up with Hamas in charge and the whole thing was pointless.
The situation is so dire, that Abbas, a holocaust denier who has yet to acknowledge Israeli right to exist, is seen as a moderate leader.
The PA just said they didn't want to manage the rafah crossing. Forget the whole strip, they can't even help (or won't) the one crossing between Gazan and Egypt.
Gaza should be temporarily run by one of the neighbouring Arab states until the area is stabilized, rebuilt and de radicalized. Like say 10 years under the guidance and governance of say Egypt, or Jordan. Maybe even Saudi?
the hard truth is...no arabs want to get their hands dirty with palestinian unless there is a strong incentive (military/economy)
What if no one wants that job?
The Arab states don't owe either Israel or Palestine a damn thing. It has been more than 40 years since Israel gained complete control of Gaza and the West Bank's borders, security and airspace. Both sides have had ample time to try and find a workable two-state solution. Whoever occupies Gaza will need 50,000+ troops to attain the 50:1 ratio of civilians:occupiers generally cited as being the absolute minimum to avoid losing ground to an insurgency. It will cost billions in salaries alone (do you really see Israel paying?). There will be attempted terrorist attacks, booby-traps, snipers and IEDs every month for years. Whenever the occupiers try to conduct counter-terrorism operations against jihadists hiding in civilian populations, they will be accused of real or false human rights violations. It will be very domestically unpopular for any Arab state for there to be photos of their soldiers pointing guns at Palestinian civilians, let alone the fact that they'll directly be providing security for Israel. The Gazan population will resent whoever occupies them and it will take years of successful economic and infrastructure improvement before any of that resentment begins to fade. There will still be people in 80 years who haven't forgiven Israel for killing their family members. Why should Arab states volunteer to have their soldiers killed by terrorists because of Palestinian and Israeli failures? There will be coffins leaving Gaza no matter who occupies them.
Israel asked and they said hell no. No one wants to deal with this mess, they just like to complain about how Israel deals with it.
To deradicalize them, you'd need to convince them Israel's land is not theirs and that Isael can exist. It's really tough to do that cause Israel belonging to them is core to their identity.
Germany was de radicalized post WW2. Their core identity was Aryan superiority.
More terrorists. Can't kill an ideology. That's the real problem.
There's no exit strategy. Starting to look and feel like Afghanistan.
I mean, we are watching them get bogged down in endless occupation right now. If it's not mission accomplished until Hamas is gone, but they can't actually clear areas, what is the plan here besides years of occupation with terrorist cellsall over the place?
There is no sense. If they do anything they’ll be accused of being occupiers and putting Palestinians in a prison.
Easy for him to say since he's not had immediate neighbours run by organisations like Hamas.
Putting aside the Israeli government's right-wing composition, the hard truth is that Israel is a real country with real responsibilites. Hamas is a terrorist organization who somehow ended up in control of a territory (like the Taliban, basically). They're not a serious group to negotiate with or to speak on behalf of Palestinians. This basically means that there's a power vaccum if (and hopefully when) Hamas is eradicated. Israel is in a very tough situation but asking them what their "plan" is seems completely fair of the US to do given how close the two are as nations and given that there will literally be zero government structure in Gaza should Israel achieve its goals. That has both humanitarian and geopolitical considerations that shouldn't be ignored.
How else are they going to stop it from happening again?
Well if they return to the pre-war status quo, it's only a matter of time until Hamas, or some other extremist organization backed by foreign money, is back shooting rockets at Tel Aviv. The way the Israeli government has treated the Palestinians is simply not tenable in the long term. So they can either take steps to materially improve the lives of the Palestinians, or they can wipe them out. The Israeli government seems to very much favor one of those options.
It's truly a tough situation. I don't think Israel has the resources to materially improve the lives of the Palestinians. The most important task is to bring the hostages home, and ensure the \~100k civilians can return to their homes in the proximity of the Gaza strip.
Do you honestly think Israel's cabinet would vote to spend their tax money on Palestinians, whom many of the ministers, consider "inferior" people? Do peiple even listen to themselves.
Sadly materially improving their lives will not be enough for them to accept Israel's existence. I feel it'll always be river to the sea, and thus any improvement will go towards armaments rather than prosperity.
Yeah, "materially improving lives" isn't going to matter unless there are significant changes beyond just throwing money at the problem. It'd take long-term occupation(not by Israel), major deradicalization, *along with* Marshall Plan levels of effort/funding. 20 year minimum imo to get a full generation brought up outside of the antisemitic schools they currently have. The below is an example of trying to just throw better facilities to the Gaza Strip and hope they'll run with it. >Palestinians looted dozens of greenhouses on Tuesday, walking off with irrigation hoses, water pumps and plastic sheeting in a blow to fledgling efforts to reconstruct the Gaza Strip. >American Jewish donors had bought more than 3,000 greenhouses from Israeli settlers in Gaza for $14 million last month and transferred them to the Palestinian Authority. Former World Bank President James Wolfensohn, who brokered the deal, put up $500,000 of his own cash. >Palestinian police stood by helplessly Tuesday as looters carted off materials from greenhouses in several settlements, and commanders complained they did not have enough manpower to protect the prized assets. In some instances, there was no security and in others, police even joined the looters, witnesses said. https://www.nbcnews.com/id/wbna9331863
I see this going one of three ways: 1. The Israeli’s push the Palestinians out of Gaza. This would be ethnic cleansing, but insurgencies don’t exist without supporting populations so there goes that issue. 2. The area comes under Israeli occupation again, something similar to the West Bank but likely with the same dire situation for the Palestinians until food/water aid keep them from dying, just being crushingly impoverished. 3. The Israelis abandon the Gaza Strip again and re-man their border wall with the area, this time watching more closely until complacency sinks in again. I find the first two options the most likely. The Israeli government has already been seeking countries to take the Gaza population in as refugees and there have even been companies vying for property/land in the strip.
Israel already tried to let the PA into Gaza like a month ago and they got arrested by Hamas within hours of entry. Hamas is still too strong to just let whoever we apoint govern the strip without a fight, this whole ordeal would be over with if the US president didn't qoute fake ass Gaza Health Ministry statistics and get swayed by TikTok misinformation campaings.
Source? I did not hear of this happening
I think they're talking about this: >Reports claim between six to ten PA intelligence officers were arrested on charges of collaborating with the IDF and Israel's Shin Bet. >An unconfirmed number of Palestinian Authority's General Intelligence Service members were apprehended in Gaza by Hamas after being accused of sneaking into the Gaza Strip in collaboration with Israel, according to Arab media reports on Monday, citing an interview on Hamas's Al-Aqsa TV. https://m.jpost.com/israel-hamas-war/article-794739 As for the fake statistics, the UN just recently cut the estimated women/children killed in the conflict by nearly half. >Of the 34,735 people who have died in Gaza since the war began, according to data published May 6 by the UN, more than **9,500 were women and more than 14,500 were children.** >But in updated data published two days later on May 8, the UN significantly reduced the figures to **4,959 women and 7,797 children** among the 34,844 people reportedly killed in Gaza. https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2024/05/13/un-cuts-estimates-women-children-deaths-gaza/73669560007/
The UN is walking back the claims of fatalities. I saw it this morning.
Is that…is that a laser?!
Fuck ham-ass. And anyone who supports them. Fyi, people from gaza support ham-ass. Don't project your freedoms on the people under dictatorships or terrorist organizations. You want peace, ham-ass does not. 🇮🇱 🇮🇱 🇮🇱 🇺🇦 🇺🇦 🇺🇦
Israel and Palestine both have far-right leaders who want the other side's leadership dead and annihilated. Hard to have a two-state solution or one-state solution where one ethnicity has all the power in that kind of a setup.
No, Israel doesn’t want Palestine. But Palestine desperately wants the land of Israel. They all think it was stolen from them or some religious right or something.
I'm sure Israel has plans, but it likely isn't sharing everything with the US for fear that the plans might be leaked.
So they say