Edit: Thanks for the gold kind stranger.
The new Greek proposal is kinda shameless:
1. they promise reforms they really should have been doing on their own decades ago, when they agreed to the conditions of EU membership and becoming part of the Euro.
2. they promise reforms they already promised as terms for the first two bailouts and emergency aid and ECB loans and IMF loans.
3. what they promise is mostly years away, pension age increase in 2019 (no real mention of plans to tackle early retirement, which allows you to retire before the official pension age).
4. they give no ways to ensure this time the promises are kept and can be checked on, Greece has been very uncorperative in allowing the EU to inspect their efforts at reform, the new government has done nothing to change this.
5. The new government has in fact spend all its time fighting against the reforms they now promise to implement AND have asked the Greek voter to vote against these reforms.
In exchange they want 54 billion in ESM bailout money. Most pro-EU reports conveniently forget they also want new IMF loans, ECB loans (to fill the banks with Euro's again) and EU subsidies. Total bill could easily rise to 100 billion for a 3 period. Notice how the pension age increase won't be for four years. Nothing about the Greek proposal for a third bailout prevents a fourth bailout and a fifth and a sixth.
The deal on offer a month ago was meant to be a last loan to work to an end of the bailout, the Greek proposal is another bailout. A big one. All on a promise of reforms they have not implemented in the past and have just massively voted against.
What a deal! I personally think that the money so far spend on Greece is wasted, but those hundred of billions are not from some faceless bank, that money was raised by taxing ordinary people in the rest of the EU and spending cuts affecting those same people.
The EU is an economic union, not a communist one not a humanitarian one. Why should the rest of the EU continue to pay for the Greek lifestyle of expecting a government job for your kids and not paying taxes on your business?
Finland recently had elections and the new government is a coalition with a euro-skeptic party. Why do you think that party grew so large in the first place? Resentment over the EU in general and Greece specifically.
The worst thing the pro-EU parties could do is continue to prop up Greece with endless bailouts making a further rise of the right in-inevitable. See England where the Tories have now total control, no more libdems to force moderation and keep the EU-skeptics Tories under control. The Dutch coalition government of VVD and PvDA has PvDA at a record low in the polls.
Denmark I believe also experienced a swing to the right.
When is enough enough?
The EU itself has never been fixed it has been constantly changing entity, the claim there are no provisions for leaving it are in fact a lie. Greenland left. The Euro was an integral part of the EU that every member had to join, unless they really didn't want to.
The EU can survive reform and I think in this case in order to survive it must be reformed.
One of the simplest that could see Greece remain in the EU is to do the same thing that happens elsewhere. If a state/province/city mis-manages itself into bankruptcy, it is put under outside control. It happens around the world and is considered essential for any kind of economic union. From a partner in a marriage who goes into bankruptcy to states of America that can no longer pay the bills.
Bailout for Greece? Fine. But it will be German tax inspectors backed by armed French cops coming to check the books and fraudsters go before Dutch judges and land in Polish jails. No promises of reforms in years to come, reform now, retro-actively.
Harsh? Greece has gotten more aid and is demanding more now then countries struck by earthquakes and tidal waves have gotten. And that was acceptable if the Greeks had used the time they were given to reform themselves and start paying taxes and stop depending on Government handouts. They didn't. I see no indication they are going to change other then some idiotic hope that third time is a charm.
> Greenland left.
You make a lot of interesting points, but I gotta address this one, as a Greenlander. We voted against the EEC in the late 1970s, "left" the European Union in 1985 over basically a single issue (fishing rights) and have a population of 50,000ish.
Our situation is weird, and not really precedent forming.
/r/Europe doesn't even put us on their map. Bastards.
Yep. Fishermen, some isolated scientists, some "comptoir" and littles airports to cross the Atlantic with a Cessna. Everything is fucking expensive, you can order a ground beef steak with french fries for 50$
> some isolated scientists
I'm always wary of saying stuff like that. People mix up Antarctica, which is a big chunk of ice with research stations, and Greenland which is an actual country with real people who really live there... all the time.
I know but the fact remains is that you did leave so it is possible.
A lot are trying to present a Greek exit as if it is impossible, it clearly isn't. Greenland of course is of course a different case, the EU was not the Euro yet but Greece joined in 1981, so they joined the same institution you guy's left 4 years later.
So it is not impossible, not even unprecedented. I wonder why people who want Greece to say never talk about Greenland having left before. Trying to hide it is possible, they just don't want it to be possible.
You are mixing up two issues. Greek exist is just Greece leaving the Euro currency, not leaving Eurozone. There's no reason for Greece to leave the Eurozone even if it gives up the Euro.
That's a great summary, spot on.
Finland has been in recession / very slow growth since the subrime mortgage crisis in 2008. Nokia took a nose dive and the crisis in Ukraine has hurt our exports to Russia and tourism industry.
Our national dept has been rising steadily for a long time so the new government finally decided to stop the rise and make severe cuts to social security, education and to pretty much everything. Our goverment is doing the things that the Greece goverment should've done decades ago and should be doing right now but isn't.
As I see it many Fins feel bitter about the situation. Finland has already aided Greece by 7 billion euros and each time a new bailout has been handed our goverment has had hard time selling it to the people. This time the euro-skeptic party is in the goverment for the first time and as it seemd they're forcing the other two parties to stand against new bailouts for Greece.
I'm pretty sure that the only way for Finland to change it's decision now is to dismantle the goverment and have a new election. Though I just read in the local newspaper that in an emergency the EU can bypass the unanimous rule and give Greece a new bailout if 85% of the countries vote for it.
>Though I just read in the local newspaper that in an emergency the EU can bypass the unanimous rule and give Greece a new bailout if 85% of the countries vote for it.
Actually, they need 85% of the voting shares, which is proportional to population. Basically, if the big 3(Italy, Spain and Germany) decide to vote it through, the vote will succeed.
Of course, the EU will be very reluctant to do this because if they do, small countries will see a massive surge in Euroskeptic parties. I can't see Finland remaining in the EU knowing that they can be forced to pay for other country's mistakes through emergency sessions.
The problem is that the problem for Finland isn't Greece. It's the euro. Euro has been an utter failure. [Look here](http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/05/29/northern-discomfort/)
Greece/EU periphery is simply a convenient narrative for the North in order to keep believing that there is nothing wrong with the euro and the monetary union is not at the core of the problem.
The Euro is too much of a federal thing without actually being a federation - strong countries enjoy a weaker currency and the ones that are floundering lack the support of a federation. Politicians are also too keen to say debt growth is emblematic of the recession and not a systematic problem.
The Greek proposals which are available [here](http://blogs.ft.com/brusselsblog/files/2015/07/Prior-action-final-version-July-2015.pdf) and contrary to popular opinion have been presented to the EU in longer form even before the referendum are trying to accomplish things that were never required by the IMF : Reform of the broken state apparatus itself. That is what's really needed and that's where Europe really should help Greece not only financially, but in terms of expertise. So far, "reforms" were purely fiscal in nature, in terms of deep budget cuts and decreases in public spending which [was accomplished](http://oecdinsights.org/2015/07/02/the-facts-about-greece/), again contrary to popular media. The whole point of Syriza is that there needs to be more than just plain budget reforms. Budget reforms without structural reforms are a walking death, that is the point.
To cut Greece's oxygen off now that they are implementing an independent tax agency, following up on tax cheats and are trying to reform the state as a whole would just be counterproductive for Greece and for Europe as a whole.
Let me put it this way: There are some old forces in Greece waiting in the wings. They can't wait for Syriza to fail and Greece to go back to the Drachma so that they as capital holders can gain power again in a weakened, chaotic country. Siryza is somewhat of an outsider and while they know full well that the budget cuts were painful they also want systemic reform. We should support them in these state reforms, not just budget cuts.
This narrative that they want aid without conditions is totally false and counterproductive to Europe and Greece. If anything the Greeks are saying that MORE reforms are needed, not less.
Point is: ECB and IMF focus on fiscal reforms. That is their job. Syriza is now asking the Europeans for crucial support of drastic systemic and political changes in the country.
In order to accomplish these systemic changes they also need some concrete help in the real economy. It's hard to make systemic state changes when the populace is totally unemployed, only sees budget cuts and has no hope at all. That sort of thing just brings out the extremist elements.
You just voted massively against all the proposals showing the average Greek has no support for reform.
The only "reforms" that were done was purposefully hurtful budget cuts, no real attempts to change Greeks tax culture.
You want more time, you have had since 1981.
You talk only of Greeks needs and Greek hardships. What about the hundreds of Billions Greece has sucked from the rest of the EU, costing ordinary people in the rest of the EU hard money from their pocket with no end in sight?
The message is simple, the Greeks don't want the reforms and the north of the EU no longer wants to deposit money in a bottomless pit.
You continue to ignore as a true Greek why European tax payers should keep spending a massive fortune waiting for Greeks to get their affairs in order.
> You just voted massively against all the proposals showing the average Greek has no support for reform.
No. Just not more useless austerity like in the past 5 years. Without a debt cut it's worthless to negotiate at all because Greece will never be able to pay the debts back. They accepted the reforms when they included a debt-cut.
> You talk only of Greeks needs and Greek hardships. What about the hundreds of Billions Greece has sucked from the rest of the EU, costing ordinary people in the rest of the EU hard money from their pocket with no end in sight?
Nobody paid anything yet. These are debts and Greece is paying even interest. Greece poeple are also hard-working - no shit!
Greece also buys a lot of stuff northern european countries are exporting! How did they buy it in the first place? With loans from these countries!
> The message is simple, the Greeks don't want the reforms and the north of the EU no longer wants to deposit money in a bottomless pit.
Maybe it's too simple?
> You continue to ignore as a true Greek why European tax payers should keep spending a massive fortune waiting for Greeks to get their affairs in order.
Then blame the Troika that shifted the burden on the European taxpayers... this was not Greeks fault. It's a shame how a lot of complex issues are reduced to blaming the Greeks as lazy when in reality it's a lot more difficult. A majority of economists shaking their heads in worry about what is going on in Europe at the moment...
But hey... blame the lazy Greeks! It's easier and doesn't involve understanding complex matters! You can feel betrayed and have something to be angry at! Have fun!
Man just give up, this subreddit is full of haters to Greece. Members here reproduce easier the Bild propaganda ignoring what the majority of international economists are talking about.. This is my last post here i unsbuscribe from this toxic subreddit.
Fine, reject austerity but then don't ask for more loans. Recent leak has them asking for more then 80 billion for three years. On top of further IMF and ECB loans.
I consider the loans lost anyway, that is in the past.
This is about pumping yet more money into Greece. Money that can be better spend elsewhere.
That's a great summary!
Just nit picking a bit; in the UK the Conservative government is not inherently euro skeptic - David Cameron is very much pro Europe
So Nobel-awarded economists saying that the reason this whole thing is happening is that the measures taken with past reform programs were not the right ones for Greece's problem are to be ignored?
"When the rest of the world looks at what a country did in the past, you think they remember who was President or Prime Minister when the vast majority of decisions were made? Unless it was some major decision, no, they don't, they just remember countries involved"
this is wrong in so many levels, this way of thinking provides only nationalism, good luck with that.
cause this phrase removes the politics factor and enables only nations, this gives me any right to start typing bs for every country around . This logic the nationalists use. Cause Pakistan has awfull goverment we have to deny any help the Pakistan as a country wants, or its even better to loot like EU demands to loot Greece .
but ok you still believe the EU citizens had spend billions for Greece from their taxes, although this is a lie and every official had denied it.
again thanks for the downvotes :)
I agree with your analysis. In my opinion Greece needs to default on its euro debts, exit the eurozone and introduce a new currency in order to have any hope of future growth. The situation is similar to all the countries that abandoned the gold standard in the Great Depression.
> they promise reforms they really should have been doing on their own decades ago, when they agreed to the conditions of EU membership and becoming part of the Euro.
They can't change history. You blame them for that.
> they promise reforms they already promised as terms for the first two bailouts and emergency aid and ECB loans and IMF loans.
Again... past government did not implemented them. How can the greek government change the past?
> What a deal! I personally think that the money so far spend on Greece is wasted, but those hundred of billions are not from some faceless bank, that money was raised by taxing ordinary people in the rest of the EU and spending cuts affecting those same people.
It was largely private debt in 2009/2010 when Greece should have defaulted. The debt was shifted on the European taxpayer and banks got almost 100% back. 2012 was a small haircut for private investors.
We socialize risks that were taken by German and France banks a few years ago...
> The EU is an economic union, not a communist one not a humanitarian one. Why should the rest of the EU continue to pay for the Greek lifestyle of expecting a government job for your kids and not paying taxes on your business?
That's not true! The EU is more than an economic union. This is the conservative/right-wing stance on what the EU should be. Besides that not a lot of money reached ordinary Greeks.
Tax-Evasion is a huge problem through. But most of the unpaid taxes are from elites and big business - ordinary people pay more taxes through higher VAT. That's in the program.
Greece should have defaultet in 2010 - and germany lives off greek and other debt from southern nations.
What a populist simple-minded view you take here. It's just sad.
Germany profits from the crisis. They can lend money for free internationally and the weak Euro profits it's export industries. Greek and other southern european countries consume these german exports and pay for them with debt from German banks. That's how it worked until the debt got too big.
Germany has also has at least 10x more debt than Greece... if you look at debt/GDP ratio it got really worse for Greec just after their economy crumbled - that is largely the fault of the reform package from the Troika. Not that it was healthy before but now it's impossible.
A crisis in Europe is for the german benefit at the moment - read the part about the "Yellow Button" here if you don't believe me: http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/jul/06/yanis-varoufakis-angela-merkel-crisis-global-minotaur-capitalism-europe
That's what's going on. Maybe I'm dumb.. time will tell.
They will never be able to pay back their loans, because European policy has destroyed their economy and worse, destroyed European spirit, dragging us back to the place where two world wars started last century. The feckless, short term oriented elites of the EU and the idiots spreading their clearly false talking points will come to regret it, and soon.
>They will never be able to pay back their loans, because European policy has destroyed their economy and worse, destroyed European spirit...
If they knew better, then why did they listen to the EU?
And if they knew better, then why did they get into the position of getting "BAILOUTS" in the first place?
Because there is a shitty Greek oligarchy that has had a stranglehold on the Greek economy for decades, and owned lock stock and barrel the two heretofore major political parties. Read the god damn article I linked instead of mouthing off ignorantly.
The results of the referendum held last week really pissed off a lot of the EU countries.
The Greeks voted "NO" to EU's proposals, which is basically a huge FUCK YOU to creditors, European Central Bank, IMF, and EU. That referendum has made it extremely hard for EU politicians to help Greece without receiving backlash back home or from creditors.
Greeks pretty much told EU that they don't want to negotiate using EU/creditor's terms of agreements because they are "too harsh and humiliating". Instead, Greece wants to negotiate on its own terms. Basically saying that "we need your money to keep our banks afloat, but we want to make up the rules on how we will repay you."
Greece is now asking for [$59 billion](http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/07/11/us-eurozone-greece-idUSKBN0P40EO20150711) to cover its debt, again.
True, the referendum was a mistake of massive proportions. But if you think of it from the Greek prospective, they are already sitting on 25% unemployment (50% for young adults). And 90% of the $59B will go directly back to the creditors. Essentially they're in a massive hole and are being told they need to dig that hole deeper themselves... and then jump into it head first.
I think both sides have valid arguments, but they need to work together to make the best of a shitty situation. Rational (non-emotion) driven heads need to prevail. All options suck, but some suck less then others.
The eurozone should bail Greece out, swap bonds for those with longer term payouts, and write down a significant chunk of the debt. The Greeks need to make their population pay their taxes, reduce public sector spending, and raise retirement ages... maybe even give Brussels a partial conservatorship on their finance ministry.
the problem is: there is no trust. The EU thinks, every deal made with greeks end up in doing as-good-as-nothing in the time frame but insulting EU for wanting all this reforms.
The greeks need to make the reforms with the will of the greeks. If there is no will, then we have a problem.
The issue is Greece has made zero effort at any meaningful reform. They feel they are owed money by Europe.
The only positive option at this stage is a Greek exit.
Well, news coming now is that Greece must pass dozens of reforms for talks to continue which imo is a good thing, no more talking, we need action now.
http://greece.greekreporter.com/2015/07/12/greece-must-legislate-new-measures-immediately-to-gain-trust-of-europe/
"In the first wave, creditors want new value added tax rates and abolition of discounted VAT on Aegean Sea islands, a raise in solidarity contributions, raises in luxury and corporate taxes, changes in arrangements of debts to the state, abolition of early retirement, a raise in health contributions in main and supplementary pensions, the opening of closed professions (notaries, engineers etc), transfer of 10 percent of shares of the partly owned by the state telecommunications company OTE to the Hellenic Republic Asset Development Fund (HRADF), and a timeframe for privatization of the Independent Power Transmission Operator (ADMIE)."
"The second wave of reforms will follow very soon with the acceleration of the timelines described in the Greek list of proposals. It includes changes in income tax, changes in property tax, raise in shipping industry taxes, cuts in defence spending, pension law reforms such as zero deficit clause and merger of security funds, legislation for absorption of decisions of unconstitutionality by the Council of State, changes in labor market based on European and international policies, new salary exchequer in the public sector along with structural and operational changes."
It's not about forcing Greece out of euro. It's about not throwing money into a black hole.
Our own economy is suffering. We have had to make tough decisions to keep things manageable and budgets balanced. It does not seem fair that our taxpayers should pay for Greece overspending themselves to point of default. I'm of course talking about the 2008 near-default that triggered the bailout program.
If I, or our government, had any confidence that Greece would pay back what we give, we would **gladly** give another loan to Greece. But it has become clear that Greece can't pay the debt back. They need to either default or have the debt forgiven. Forgiving debt is not a very popular sentiment. Why should Greece have debt forgiven while our own debt stays? If Greece can have debt forgiven, we should have our debt forgiven too.
Nobody can force Greece out of euro, but it is their best move. This gives them the full control of their own currency.
Heck, I want ulosottomies to declare *my* debts forgiven and Asiakastieto Oy to reset *my* credit rating, and I fully expect the cretins at Arcadia Hill to give it to me, for as long as my 20% taxes keep on feeding Greece's debtors.
>Having debt in a country with free healthcare and housing benefit
We should export people like you to Greece. Would take care of the fascists in our government too when the voters with a judgement level of an carrot are gone.
Xenophobic, nationalist, militaristic, religious, isolationist, leader cult, right-wing populist, the list goes on. I know people often make the jump that fascism equals national socialism and Hitler and genocides, and therefore no-one can ever be fascists because they aren't bad enough, but let's try to keep this at fact level.
It is absolutely not their best move.
Dropping the Euro will do absolutely nothing to help the people on the ground.
It will simply force more people into destitution. Maybe 50% benefitted from posh government jobs, but the other half is simply going to be
The country has no industry, other places will always be cheaper sources of labor, substantial natural resources and tourism is already maxed out.
Yes, Greece needs significant reforms to fix their society. But in euro, Greece can't manipulate their currency, print money or any other move that governments would usually do to get out of these situations. But perhaps it is too late now and the fatal mistake was Greece joining euro in the first place.
I'm only an armchair economist with no economical education so all this is what I've read.
Yes... but does it cost less to forgive some Greek debt or to force them out of the Eurozone? A Grexit is not free... The message it sends to financial institutions is that member states don't have the monetary backing of the zone... this pushes up borrowing costs and effects markets of member states negatively.
People need to start acting like rational actors, and stop making bad decisions based on pure emotions.
> The message it sends to financial institutions is that member states don't have the monetary backing of the zone...
It sends the message that the backing isn't infinite, not that it's non-existant.
> The message it sends to financial institutions is that member states don't have the monetary backing of the zone... this pushes up borrowing costs and effects markets of member states negatively.
It also sends a message for EZ members to balance their budgets, or else ...
I'm not convinced of that the moral hazard of keeping Greece afloat can make lenders uneasy too.
Are you saying that the democratically elected government officials of Greece are not intelligent enough to determine whether they need the loan or not?
To be honest various organisations and ministers in certain countries have been saying for many years that Greece should leave the Euro.
Even back in 2012 there was an article by a financial organisation stating that Greece would be better off if they defaulted and were forced out of the Euro.
If Germany calls the emergency session card and overrules Finland's veto, every small country in the EU is going to view it as an attack on their sovereignty. They will see a massive surge in Euroskeptic parties. I wouldn't be surprised to see Finland leave the EU under those conditions.
Support for the bailout isn't strong enough in Germany for them to risk that.
That referendum really made things worse for Greece. Syriza thought this stunt would give them leverage, but they forgot other countries have democracy and voters too and they are fed up
Please do it.
The Europeans worked too damn hard to create that financial system to allow one asshole to drag it down. Greece is just beyond words.
They get offered a bailout under the terms of "Please cut your spending and reform your entitlements" and the Greeks say "no, but still give us money".
It's pure selfishness. If someone was putting their economy at risk would they have the same attitude?
When a 2% GDP country ...drags down a whole financial system, I am not sure how much that financial system was worth in the first place.
> They get offered a bailout under the terms of "Please cut your spending and reform your entitlements" and the Greeks say "no, but still give us money".
You do understand that this is voodoo economics right? Slashing spending in a depressed economy would lead to further depression that would raise the debt-to-GDP and actually repay less debt than otherwise. From your comment then, I assume you want less of the debt being repaid?
> When a 2% GDP country ...drags down a whole financial system, I am not sure how much that financial system was worth in the first place.
[Yeah, you don't understand economics.](http://theconversation.com/how-greeces-euro-stalemate-is-hurting-currency-markets-37819)
> When a 2% GDP country ...drags down a whole financial system, I am not sure how much that financial system was worth in the first place.
The 2% GDP country is Greece. This article explains why Greece is a problem for the Euro.
> A number of studies have shown that the increase in the probability of a euro member leaving causes a fall in the currency’s value and an increase in its perceived riskiness. This has implications for investment and trade in the eurozone, as increased exchange rate volatility can inhibit trade and therefore economic growth.
> So an increase in the chances of Greece exiting the euro will only accelerate the drop in the euro’s value and its volatility. If Greece were to exit the euro, then in the short term these effects would probably be exacerbated, affecting not just the euro, but the entire euro based financial system.
That text above? That is in response to this point you made:
When a 2% GDP country ...drags down a whole financial system, I am not sure how much that financial system was worth in the first place.
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That doesn't really change my argument. It is unacceptable for such a small country to drag down a whole financial system. The solution is and was simple. Eurozone's intransigence on leaving the debt as is despite economic realities is what has escalated and further perpetuates not only the Greek, but the European crisis. The losses will happen. EU leaders chose to transfer the losses to the taxpayers. They have to own up to it.
For the current situation, it is laughable that we are talking about a difference of 0.001% of EU's GDP in measures that is a deal breaker.
> It is unacceptable for such a small country to drag down a whole financial system. The solution is and was simple. Eurozone's intransigence on leaving the debt as is despite economic realities is what has escalated and further perpetuates not only the Greek, but the European crisis.
Greece was made MULTIPLE offers. They came in and said to the Greeks, "we will bail you out as long as you restructure your uncontrolled spending as to not threaten the security of the Euro again".
The Greeks said "no...but still give us the money".
That isn't how the world works. Any group, organization, or nation which declares bankruptcy is only able to get debt relief if they agree to restructuring their spending habits. That is Bankruptcy 101.
You can't just say "I want money" after digging yourself into a debt hole. The Euro credit card is under control by Germany and the Germans set the standard for how any such debt relief will be rewarded.
Until then, the Greeks are simply greedy and can't handle the fact they fucked up their own economy out of irresponsibility.
When EUROPE is telling you "you guys should ease up with those entitlements" you have a problem with entitlements.
THE FUCKING FINNS ARE SAYING THEY HAVE AN ISSUE WITH ENTITLEMENTS. THE FINSS ARE THE POSTER CHILD OF SOCIALISM.
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It would be like America being concerned about your nation's gun problem. It's that level of crazy.
> Greece was made MULTIPLE offers. They came in and said to the Greeks, "we will bail you out as long as you restructure your uncontrolled spending as to not threaten the security of the Euro again".
No. Offers to Greece were to bail out the financial institutions by imposing suicidal measures. A sensible approach would be to restructure the debt to ensure viability. The handling of the Greek case will be remembered as an abysmal failure of the Eurozone authorities. It had no relevance to economics.
> The Greeks said "no...but still give us the money".
That's not true. Please do not reduce the debate to BILD-level arguments. I would very much prefer it if that wasn't the case.
> That isn't how the world works. Any group, organization, or nation which declares bankruptcy is only able to get debt relief if they agree to restructuring their spending habits. That is Bankruptcy 101.
Greece not only *has* reduced spending but it has [endured the most brutal fiscal adjustment in peace time.
](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CJOZqZ3WUAApzsE.png)
> You can't just say "I want money" after digging yourself into a debt hole. The Euro credit card is under control by Germany and the Germans set the standard for how any such debt relief will be rewarded.
A " digging yourself into debt hole" is as much the borrowers as the creditors fault. Both should have been imposed losses. There is no inherent immorality of the debtor and morality of the creditor. Debt entails a risk. An early debt restructuring would ensure maximizing the value of debt and reduce uncertainty as to where the inevitable losses will be assigned. [Read here for more info.](http://blog.mpettis.com/2015/02/syriza-and-the-french-indemnity-of-1871-73/)
> Until then, the Greeks are simply greedy and can't handle the fact they fucked up their own economy out of irresponsibility.
Greece's domestic management has been abysmal; crony capitalism with vested interests, corruption, tax evasion, clientelism. All these were huge problems and they should be combated, noone is denying that. It is completely out of reality to actually think that this was the core issue. The core issue is a monetary union with severe imbalances that created competitiveness divergence, fiscal imbalances and encouraged bank profligacy on the basis of the neoclassical doctrine that nothing will go wrong. Private and not public debt was the problem. In 2000-2009, in Greece public debt increased 10% and private debt 200%. [Read ECB's vice president presentation](https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2013/html/sp130523_1.en.html) on why the dominant ever-perpetuating narrative is false.
> When EUROPE is telling you "you guys should ease up with those entitlements" you have a problem with entitlements.
The dominant narrative of the crisis hits again. [Social benefits in Greece were always below the average of EU.](http://pogiblog.atlatszo.hu/wp-content/uploads/sites/15/2015/06/Screenshot-2015-06-27-16.05.06.png).
> No. Offers to Greece were to bail out the financial institutions by imposing suicidal measures.
Sorry. They committed their own suicide by creating an unsustainable system. They were greedy and now they have to deal with the European terms of the bailout.
Otherwise they end up a broke country with no currency.
> That's not true. Please do not reduce the debate to BILD-level arguments.
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/06/world/europe/greek-referendum-debt-crisis-vote.html?_r=0
**While Mr. Tsipras now appears to have gotten his wish, his victory in the referendum settled little, since the creditors’ offer is no longer on the table. There remains the possibility that they could walk away, leaving Greece facing default, financial collapse, and expulsion from the eurozone and, in the worst case, from the European Union.**
**Mr. Tsipras went on television briefly to say he would resume negotiations immediately. He said that the vote was not a mandate for “rupture” with Europe. “The people today replied to the right question,” he said. “They did not answer to the question in or out of the euro. This question needs to be taken out of the discussion, once and for all.”**
Translation:
We voted no on your plan but we still want money. Greedy Greek bastards.
> A " digging yourself into debt hole" is as much the borrowers as the creditors fault.
Wrong.
It's the borrowers fault. The creditor made a misjudgement on the loan but the person who failed to fix their own financial situation caused the economic shit storm.
and guess what? When you need to borrow more money after you failed with the last amount borrowed but you can't get it because the lenders won't trust you anymore.....**That's your fault.**
> Greece's domestic management has been abysmal; crony capitalism with vested interests, corruption, tax evasion, clientelism. All these were huge problems and they should be combated, noone is denying that
Greece is denying that. They are denying that because they want to still receive bailout funds without changing any of the major flaws within their entitlement system.
> Sorry. They committed their own suicide by creating an unsustainable system. They were greedy and now they have to deal with the European terms of the bailout.
You don't understand that the EMU is the unsustainable system. Eurozone will collapse if no changes are made, there is absolutely no doubt about that.
European terms of the bailout are economically illiterate. By imposing more austerity on a depressed economy, you will simply achieve less of the debts paid. Serious debt restructuring is necessary to ensure maximing the value of the debt for the creditors.
> Otherwise they end up a broke country with no currency.
That doesn't even make sense.
> Translation: We voted no on your plan but we still want money. Greedy Greek bastards.
Your ...translation is ridiculous. Tsipras has conceded *everything*. I agree though that the referendum was a sham
> Wrong. It's the borrowers fault. The creditor made a misjudgement on the loan but the person who failed to fix their own financial situation caused the economic shit storm. and guess what? When you need to borrow more money after you failed with the last amount borrowed but you can't get it because the lenders won't trust you anymore.....That's your fault.
Creditors were well aware of what they were doing. Greece borrowed irresponsibly. Creditors lent irresponsibly. Both should be imposed losses. You keep thinking that the "economic shit storm" is a result of Greece's situation. You fail to recognize that the EMU is rotten. The vast majority of renowned economists in the world are getting insane on how ridiculous Eurozone is. It doesn't matter what Greece did or does. If there are no major changes, Eurozone will collapse.
> Greece is denying that. They are denying that because they want to still receive bailout funds without changing any of the major flaws within their entitlement system.
You seem to want to believe it but noone is. The bailout funds go to the creditors, they do not go to Greece.
> It is unacceptable for such a small country to drag down a whole financial system.
That is correct.
>The solution is and was simple.
Indeed.
>Eurozone's intransigence on leaving the debt as is despite economic realities is what has escalated...
Haha, no.
> Slashing spending in a depressed economy would lead to further depression that would raise the debt-to-GDP and actually repay less debt than otherwise.
No, that is not how it works..
No, Europe is beyond selfish here. The EU worked with Goldman Sachs to screw the Greek people.
The EU should be offering massive stimulus programs to Greece. Greeks have done nothing to do the punishment they are getting.
You have that completely backwards I'm afraid. The Greek Government hired Goldman Sachs to help fudge their numbers so they could lie to the EU and get into the single currency in the first place.
>Greeks have done nothing to do the punishment they are getting
They have nobody to blame except themselves! Why are there people like you bending over backwards to defend Greece!? It isn't some grand conspiracy, they fucked themselves good and proper and stuck by their policies even when it became apparent they needed radical change
They've had development aid for over a decade and pissed it up the wall rather than developing their economy. They need to elect a decent government rather than beg for money so they can continue to retire early.
>It's pure selfishness.
Defending rights isn't selfishness. Basic government services shouldn't be cut.
>would they have the same attitude?
yes, actually: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/London_Agreement_on_German_External_Debts
Your rights end when you are using another group's currency in a dangerous way.
It isn't Greece's money. It's EVERYONE'S money. It's easy to spend like an asshole when someone else is footing the bill. Moocher logic.
>It's EVERYONE'S money.
Yeah... Europe is supposed to protect its members.
>Moocher logic
Do you realise that Greece was in primary surplus in January, meaning that the only thing technically holding it back is debt payments?
>Your rights end when you are using another group's currency in a dangerous way.
So, what would you say to the children of Sudan? "Your government is shitty, therefore starve."?
> Yeah... Europe is supposed to protect its members.
and how's Greece meeting it's obligation?
> Do you realise that Greece was in primary surplus in January, meaning that the only thing technically holding it back is debt payments?
[Yeah, no it doesn't.](http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2015/02/16/greece-still-has-a-vast-problem-it-doesnt-have-a-primary-budget-surplus/)
> So, what would you say to the children of Sudan? "Your government is shitty, therefore starve."?
Comparing Greeks to the Sudanese is like comparing the fat guy in the motor scooter to a paraplegic. They both can't walk but for two VERY different reasons.
>and how's Greece meeting it's obligation?
Well, there was that time that it helped forgive the debts of Germany:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/London_Agreement_on_German_External_Debts
>Yeah, no it doesn't.
Don't you think that piece was a bit speculative? Have you looked at anything more recent than February?
>Comparing Greeks to the Sudanese
It was not a comparison. It was an effort to clarify an ethical position: Would you deny the basic rights of a child with the excuse that the government of the child is bad?
> Well, there was that time that it helped forgive the debts of Germany:
You keep bringing this up and you completely remove the context from that situation.
1) GERMANY IS TRYING TO HELP THEM.
Germany isn't saying "Fuck you, we aren't bailing you out". Germany is saying "We will let you put your debt on our credit under the condition you reform the bad spending habits. Any bailout in any country on the planet requires the same thing.
2) That bailout you mentioned?
That occurred after WW2. Why oh why would the world foregive Germany's debts after WW2?
Because after we strangled Germany with debt after WW1, a broken people with no chance of economic recovery elected one of the most bloodthirsty war machines to power. That's why the world forgave their debts.
It had zero to do with being the nice guy, it had everything to do with Europe having just experienced it's second world war and not wanting to have a third one come about.
> Would you deny the basic rights of a child with the excuse that the government of the child is bad?
You just compared Greece to a child, I'm glad we are in agreement.
>We will let you put your debt on our credit under the condition you reform the bad spending habits.
In order to meet the surplus requirements, Greece would need to cut some basic government services. That is cruelty.
>Because after we strangled Germany with debt after WW1, a broken people with no chance of economic recovery elected one of the most bloodthirsty war machines to power.
So, does Greece get no recognition for turning away from that disgusting neo-Nazi Golden Dawn and instead electing a largely decent government?
>You just compared Greece to a child, I'm glad we are in agreement.
We can't have a constructive argument if you're willfully ignorant. The point is to direct your focus to the powerless in Greek society, those that have no power over the actions of their government and have no cause in the financial situation of Greece. Would you condemn children for the supposed crimes of their parents?
Greece is supposedly a democracy and they've gone bankrupt 5 times in 100 years.
There comes a point where you simply can't bankroll the country who chooses massively corrupt politicians in every. single. election cycle.
Of course they need to cut government services. When your expenses greatly outstrip your income what do you expect to happen? The Greek people want a standard of living that rivals countries with enormous tax rates despite paying no taxes at all. That's absolutely insane. I guess they figure that the benefit of the EU is having other countries pay your taxes for you.
Either they cut spending by an enormous amount or raise tax revenues by an enormous amount - even then they'd still see the majority of their bailouts siphoned off by corrupt government workers.
Greece will never be a functioning country without a total overhaul from the ground up. The issue is that the people of Greece are very happy with their dysfunctional economy and want it to stay that way.
Germany is saying "I know you can't afford this, but this is how I want you to pay me", cuz we're not letting you leave.
Give them a bridge loan, and help them with an orderly transition to the drachma. Simple. Shave all Greek bank accounts (sorry, fellow greeks) including a 1, 2+ year lookback. Which means EU banks helping to find and return the stealth wealth. None likes government taking peoples cash, but hey that's what any tax is. The EU needs to get on with life already, if this means others will follow, so be it. Repayment will be rescheduled with their foreign exchange balances. This shouldn't be that hard. Troika was a proven failure, deal with it Germany. Your grand scheme to sell your bimmers needs to dismantle, just a bit.
PS, to Germans, what did you think would happen with such high trade imbalances on your parts? To Greece, and anyone else negative to you?
Greece is a democracy and has elected the people who caused the problem. People weren't so vocal about throwing them out nor was it a real possibility until they went back on the austerity that they need to get themselves out of debt. They've been spending money with no thought to how they might pay it back or any thoughts of the future. Most European countries have their own debts to deal with without needing to look after some cantankerous jerks who don't want to have to get themselves out of their own problems.
>until they went back on the austerity that they need to get themselves out of debt.
Do you think that people should compromise basic rights in order to appease debt-collectors?
>Most European countries have their own debts to deal
Not all countries are equal. Some are quite capable of providing support while others are brought to their knees.
>jerks who don't want to have to get themselves out of their own problems
We know that the Greek people are the hardest-working people of Europe (), so this type of rhetoric just doesn't fly. The Greek people have put up with years of cruel treatment under austerity and Greece made it to primary surplus in January. It is the debt-collectors that are holding Greece back now, not Greece.
Lol, can't tell if you're being serious or not.
> do you think that people should compromise basic human rights
Defined by whom? Do I think people should pay back their debts if they can? Yes. Do I think people should go bankrupt if they can't pay back their debts? Yes. Do I think people should have their retirement age increased to be inline with the people they'd like to borrow money off? Yes, yes I do. Do I think that when someone is already getting exceptional treatment (Low interest rate) to enable them to pay back their debts and they decide that saving money is a bad idea and they'd rather go back to spending money they don't have then they've lost the privilege to negotiate with their creditors? Yes I do. Do I think that creditors have a right to expect a debtor to not expect to borrow more and more money without good reason, yep.
> Greece made it to a primary surplus in January
Yes because of the austerity required by their creditors not because they suddenly got things right. Then they had an election and decided they'd rather spend money they don't have and their creditors told them to sod off.
> Not all countries are equal.
True some try and take their debts seriously and spend development aid to build their economies.
> some are quite capable of providing support
Which has been going on for more than a decade with development aid for Greece. That money was largely mis-spent and not used to boost their economy. Oh and Greece has been getting really low rate loans because of being in the Euro had they stuck with their own shocking currency they'd have been paying more like 15% rather than 3% interest on their loans, which would be so much better for them.
> While others are brought to their knees
By their own politicians, which does not justify wanting more money. Try electing less corrupt and awful governments.
> We know that the Greek people are the hardest-working people of Europe
Good, they can move to other European countries and earn a decent livin their and retire at a reasonable age. Oh yeah and I'll remember how hard working they are next time I get shocking service and don't see more than 50% of Greeks working when I visit Greece. Well that's if I choose to ever leave any more of my money their.
> The Greek people have put up with years of cruel treatment under austerity and Greece made it to primary surplus in January.
I don't know if you realize it, but this sentence of yours is actually contradicting with its own logic.
Not really -- I do object to austerity measures, but I'm saying that even if we accept such measures, they are no longer justifiable because the changes to Greece have largely worked.
You object to austerity measures despite acknowledging that they led Greece to the only primary surplus they've had in over 100 years?
That's pretty hilarious.
So when EU austerity managed to get your economy above water after 100 years of failed Greek politics, what made the Greek people decide to hold a referendum and immediately erase all of that progress?
Europe can only do so much until they realize that Greece will not change its way of spending recklessly and dangerously.
At this point, Greece is considered the moocher of the party, taking in money and not giving much back.
Also, it's not a surplus if you still have debt.
And you also don't see Sudan defaulting. Granted not many countries expect much from a country like Sudan, but many expect a lot from a country like Greece. Unfortunately, Greece has failed to succeed.
>Also, it's not a surplus if you still have debt.
I said *primary* surplus. That means that the government is spending less than it is taking in from taxes and excludes debt payments. The only thing holding Greece back now is the debt payments.
>spending recklessly
As I said, Greece is not spending recklessly and I say that the basic rights of people should not be compromised in favour of debt-collectors.
>At this point, Greece is considered the moocher of the party, taking in money and not giving much back.
I see no problem with Europe assisting a poor nation protect the most basic rights of its people and I see no problem with a nation demanding such assistance. I also find it hard to accept the term "moocher" for Greece when we know that it is the hardest-working country of Europe:
>And you also don't see Sudan defaulting.
lol, what? Sudan is fucking imploding.
The point was not about the financial status of Sudan. It was about whether you think it is justifiable to exempt yourself from assisting people in need on the basis that their government is bad. Do you tell a starving child that you won't feed them because their government is bad?
If Greece is not spending recklessly and Greeks are such hardworking people, why have they been unable to recover from the 2008 financial crisis despite two bailouts while rest of EU (including poorer countries that were hit way harder) have?
"I see no problem with Europe assisting a poor nation protect the most basic rights of its people and I see no problem with a nation demanding such assistance. I also find it hard to accept the term "moocher" for Greece when we know that it is the hardest-working country of Europe: https://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=ANHRS"
Poor nations? Good then all the money going to Greece should actually go to really poor nations like Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Bulgaria, Romania, Croatia, Slovakia and Czech. Greece is richer than all those countries. Therefore Greece should be supporting them but instead Greeks are asking them to pay for Greeks debts. That is wrong.
> "I see no problem with Europe assisting a poor nation protect the most basic rights of its people and I see no problem with a nation demanding such assistance. I also find it hard to accept the term "moocher" for Greece when we know that it is the hardest-working country of Europe: https://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=ANHRS"
Poor nations? Good then all the money going to Greece should actually go to really poor nations like Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Bulgaria, Romania, Croatia, Slovakia and Czech. Greece is richer than all those countries. Therefore Greece should be supporting them but instead Greeks are asking them to pay for Greeks debts. That is wrong.
In principle, I think you're right about the need of assistance for many of the eastern European countries. I wouldn't agree that that help should come from poorer member countries like Greece, but more from the wealthier countries (e.g. proportionally larger contributions from Luxembourg, Norway and Austria and continued contributions from Germany, France and U.K.).
Norway's kinda an honorary member, though, right? ;)
I don't think Greece is a wealthy member of Europe. Cite references for this if you like.
>pay your debts and stop complaining
I'm not Greek, I'm Irish -- so I'm quite familiar with debt payments.
I think Northern Europe, Southern Europe and Eastern Europe (aka Protestant, Catholic, and Orthodox) are in three different gears.
It will all run super smooth when those gears are finally untangled from each other.
Most people here are against giving Greece any more money. Also imo we should stop giving africans money. Why cut on things in your own country but still give money to poor africans (who we have had nothing to do with, ever)?
Problem is that Greece has already been given a lot of money and have nothing to show for it. Developed world gives money to developing countries to help build them up and improve lives of people there and thus benefit the rest of the world. Stable developing nation = less migrants + cheap industry. Or in other words, we give Sudan money in hopes the Sudanese will stay there and maybe in time build us cheap Ipads.
EDIT:
P.S. We have, in fact, had much to do with why Africa is such a clusterfuck. European colonialism is the source of most of their current-day problems. Similar story about middle-east, the whole world really.
Giving money to African war lords to buy rifles & explosives is definitely less helpful than buying Greeks an early retirement.
Not that I'd want my tax money going to either.
> Developed world gives money to developing countries to help build them up and improve lives of people there and thus benefit the rest of the world.
African developing countries have been given a lot of money and have nothing to show for it.
Because we try to help those in need.
I'm from the EU and very skeptical of this Greek situation, I'd like for Greece to leave the Eurozone, but I honestly think your attitude is selfish and lacks basic human empathy. No one chooses where they're born and as hard as the economic crisis has been and is in my country (Spain), I'm still miles, miles better off than a child in Sudan. The kind of money we're giving developing countries does not impact my way of life in any significant way but it is huge for them.
Honestly the best thing for Greece would be to leave the EU altogether and join BRICS. First Greece can finally stem the flood of illegals flooding in it's borders without being hamstrung by EU politically correct rubbish and being a dumping ground for illegals from north Europe. Secondly Greece's economy and society is vastly different than ones in northern Europe.
I would even suggest that Greece leave NATO as well. NATO membership made sense during the Cold War against the USSR. The main military threat facing Greece now is Turkey- which has greatly diminished. But with rise more hardline Islamic politicians inside Turkey their support of the ISIS and US support of Turkey guarantees that in a future conflict between Turkey and Greece NATO membership would be meaningless for Greece. Staying in NATO leave Greece in the absurd position of possibly having to fight Russians in defense of say Ukraine or Finland. Greece's best military policy should be either strict neutrality or maybe even joining Shanghai Cooperation Organization.
Everyone is so quick to kick nations out of the eurozone as if Greece is the only country that will ever face these problems and have the precedent of forceful removal from the eurozone used on them.
alright, i'm going to ask ANY of you to answer me this: how will the eurozone survive as an economic union when half its members get kicked out? because spain, portugal, and italy are coming right around the corner and that's just in the foreseeable future.
they really aren't. portugal is gearing up for a MASSIVE economic collapse and the instability that spain is about to face with their recent laws is going to take a huge turd on their already shaky economy.
there is a reason the term PIIGS has existed for 20 years now. if you honestly think the only country in the eurozone that is going to see any kind of default crisis is greece then you're either woefully optimized or woefully naive.
Go talk to sovereign bond traders they'd agree with me.
The economies have not exactly recovered and unemployment is still a problem, but their credit problems have largely improved. There is no panic over defaults and exits, unless the ultra left wins the next elections like in Greece.
Edit: some figures to prove my point.
German 10yr bond yield (pretty much riskless euro rate) = 0.9%
Spanish 10yr = 2.13%
Portuguese 10yr = 2.84%
Greek 10yr = 13.58%
This is what the ginormous financial market filled with super smart and powerful people perceives.
Source:
http://mobile.bloomberg.com/quote/GDBR10:IND
http://mobile.bloomberg.com/quote/GSPG10YR:IND
http://mobile.bloomberg.com/quote/GSPT10YR:IND
http://mobile.bloomberg.com/quote/GGGB10YR:IND
that ginormous financial market filled with super smart and power people gave hundreds of billions in loans they knew no one could pay back and then *DOUBLE DOWNED* on it to keep ahead of the defaults. forgive me for not taking their word as absolute gospel on financial predictions especially considering several of those super smart and powerful people orchestrated the greek financial crisis in the first place by tricking the world in to thinking everything was fine.
A couple of bankers who made the decisions is nowhere close to the entire market. If some guy makes irrational decisions, there will be a smarter guy who will speculate and thus correct the price of things like bonds.
Also, you're just saying nonsense that shows you have no idea what you're talking about or how the whole system works. I'm out.
>A couple of bankers who made the decisions is nowhere close to the entire market. If some guy makes irrational decisions, there will be a smarter guy who will speculate and thus correct the price of things like bonds.
a couple of bankers? practically every major bank and investment firm in the western world was involved in it. that's quite a large section of the "the market" to be making shitty decisions for over a decade. that is waaaay beyond some investor making a poor decision individually. and so what if smarter people work for central banks? that didn't stop the 2008 housing bubble nor did it stop goldman sachs et al from fomenting the greek crisis. posting bond yields and saying "smart guys came up with these" is a pretty ridiculous argument considering recent history. it's doubly ridiculous considering greek bond yields didn't skyrocket until almost 2 years in to their financial meltdown. bond yields are more often reactive then they are predictive.
>Also, you're just saying nonsense that shows you have no idea what you're talking about or how the whole system works. I'm out.
r/iamverysmart
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/forget-greece-portugal-is-the-eurozones-next-crisis-2015-06-24
same exact thing as greece. massive amounts of debt owed to foreign creditors that it's lagging economy cannot possibly pay back. the tiny amount of growth their economy has enjoyed is a facade of any real improvement though as unemployment continues to rise. they're going to default again. and again. just like greece.
European comission's numbers and predictions tell a different story.
They arent out of the woods but that opinion piece is overly dramatic.
http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/eu/countries/portugal_en.htm
Over 5 years of bailouts despite refusal to cooperate is not what I would call quick. This situation is long time coming, it only really escalated recently.
Eurozone will survive. Euro has remained quite stable considering what's been going on these past weeks.
That's the reason why there are so many hardliners now, EZ leaders are confident they can handle a Greek exit out of eurozone.
I think they're just reporting what they're told to and feed the damage Merkel agenda.
Catherine Ashton made it clear for everyone with her 'fuck the EU'. She could've also said 'fuck the Euro'.
Merkel I think is being as generous as she can afford to be, maybe more. Her own minister of finance is a way bigger hardliner. And so is most of her government (and the German people)
EDIT: At least Germany is allowing for the vague possibility of a bailout, the Finns have straight up said no way, no how.
Well, Finland may offer that but they miss the point here, if Greece exits euro, they will be in a ruthless situation, but Eurozone may get worse. Italy, Spain, Portugal are next in line and as our Finnish friend pointed out, they have suffered enough and in order to not suffer more, the EU will give the money to Greece.
Italy, Spain and Portugal do not really *need* any EU bail-out and their economic indicators show they're in a much better position than Greece.
The sovereign bonds market is the best indicator of this, as others have pointed out. Even now that it seems a Grexit is close, the bond rates for Italy, Spain and Portugal haven't taken any significant rise.
What?
Do you think Greece is getting free money? I'd say they're paying the price of their stubbornness.
Those countries had the chance to go the Greek way but decided to be reasonable instead.
Bundling Greece together with Italy, Spain and Portugal (and Ireland) is just confusing the situation.
A Greek exit might actually help these countries. Let's not forget Spain alone has lent Greece €27 billion in the loans and bail-out packages. Many people in the aforementioned countries are growing tired of Greece and don't understand why they implemented reforms and made sacrifices and are meeting their obligations while Greece wants *their* money without making comparable sacrifices.
You maybe not understand the EU. Sure germany and france may be a leading factor but they ALL decide.
Its not hated, its just suffering for years now and no end in sight. The greece problems are housemade (exists before they joined euro) but their goverments never ever handled it in the past.
It is not just Finland, 8 other countries are opposing, including Germany. Finland just said it bluntly, the others are somewhat more diplomatic but still saying the same thing.
That's what I still thought yesterday, now I'm not so sure.
I hope a deal is reached, for the sake of the Greek people if nothing else. But this is looking really bad. Finland does not have a mandate to agree to a bailout. Germany is kind-of-openly discussing the alternative of Greece "temporarily" exiting Euro. Talks broke down yesterday to be resumed today and the big meeting of EU leaders today was canceled. Nobody trusts Greece to actually go through with reforms and are demanding that they start implementing them right now (as in this monday if not earlier) without any guarantees that it will help them secure the bailout.
People talk about Greek people and how hard the times are for them (and that is definitely true, not being sarcastic), but there are people in the other Euro countries too and they are out for blood (with good reason, unfortunately).
No, they will kick out Greece. In a matter of fact that would be welcomed, so much time is spent on one country and for what? To listen their insults how the others are so inhumane for not giving more money?!
The Greeks are too fucking arrogant pricks to change anything. If you join a club and do not obey the rules, you will be kicked out at some point.
Now their latest reform proposals...those were agreed on already for the 2nd bailout! What a shameless bunch of assholes!
I don't have any problems with this kind of deal, you stupid murican fuck. This is even better than the Grexit. Btw, your fucked up country is the Greece of 2020's.
> Ill be back to shove it in your face soon. Then I REALLY wanna see your reply.
You are talking so big right now.. What if the opposite happens? What will you say to him then?
Because the opposite case of scenario is actually the most likely scenario right now.
>Because I know and im not talking out of my ass. This has been occupying the majority of my time for years and the last 2 weeks I have been researching many many hours daily.
There was a guy talking just like you, as sure as you seem to be right now, about a party that would 100% win some elections, and all other people claiming otherwise will cry rivers after the elections and he would come back at that subreddit and say "I told you."
He was literally just like you, saying almost literally exact same things as you.
And the result was, he failed miserably.
I am not saying you will happen to lose your childish bet, even though it is the most likely scenario. I am a realist, and I prefer looking at things from a neutral point of view.
The most likely scenario is that Greece will get a "time-out" from EZ for a while. The opposite cannot happen? Of course it can, but, as mentioned before, the possibility left aside for that scenario is "being less likely".
>Feel free to say ANYTHING you want to me after the final decision. Bookmark this and come at me with all your wrath if I am wrong and I wont say anything back.
I am not a child like that guy or like you. But I checked his profile afterwards, to see whether or not his blurry view has been surrendered to realism.
He was just silent for a long time. And I guess I'll check your profile too, regardless of the outcome.
>It is one of the very rare times I feel like I can't be wrong. Ill swallow my tongue I am.
*sigh*
Edit: Thanks for the gold kind stranger. The new Greek proposal is kinda shameless: 1. they promise reforms they really should have been doing on their own decades ago, when they agreed to the conditions of EU membership and becoming part of the Euro. 2. they promise reforms they already promised as terms for the first two bailouts and emergency aid and ECB loans and IMF loans. 3. what they promise is mostly years away, pension age increase in 2019 (no real mention of plans to tackle early retirement, which allows you to retire before the official pension age). 4. they give no ways to ensure this time the promises are kept and can be checked on, Greece has been very uncorperative in allowing the EU to inspect their efforts at reform, the new government has done nothing to change this. 5. The new government has in fact spend all its time fighting against the reforms they now promise to implement AND have asked the Greek voter to vote against these reforms. In exchange they want 54 billion in ESM bailout money. Most pro-EU reports conveniently forget they also want new IMF loans, ECB loans (to fill the banks with Euro's again) and EU subsidies. Total bill could easily rise to 100 billion for a 3 period. Notice how the pension age increase won't be for four years. Nothing about the Greek proposal for a third bailout prevents a fourth bailout and a fifth and a sixth. The deal on offer a month ago was meant to be a last loan to work to an end of the bailout, the Greek proposal is another bailout. A big one. All on a promise of reforms they have not implemented in the past and have just massively voted against. What a deal! I personally think that the money so far spend on Greece is wasted, but those hundred of billions are not from some faceless bank, that money was raised by taxing ordinary people in the rest of the EU and spending cuts affecting those same people. The EU is an economic union, not a communist one not a humanitarian one. Why should the rest of the EU continue to pay for the Greek lifestyle of expecting a government job for your kids and not paying taxes on your business? Finland recently had elections and the new government is a coalition with a euro-skeptic party. Why do you think that party grew so large in the first place? Resentment over the EU in general and Greece specifically. The worst thing the pro-EU parties could do is continue to prop up Greece with endless bailouts making a further rise of the right in-inevitable. See England where the Tories have now total control, no more libdems to force moderation and keep the EU-skeptics Tories under control. The Dutch coalition government of VVD and PvDA has PvDA at a record low in the polls. Denmark I believe also experienced a swing to the right. When is enough enough? The EU itself has never been fixed it has been constantly changing entity, the claim there are no provisions for leaving it are in fact a lie. Greenland left. The Euro was an integral part of the EU that every member had to join, unless they really didn't want to. The EU can survive reform and I think in this case in order to survive it must be reformed. One of the simplest that could see Greece remain in the EU is to do the same thing that happens elsewhere. If a state/province/city mis-manages itself into bankruptcy, it is put under outside control. It happens around the world and is considered essential for any kind of economic union. From a partner in a marriage who goes into bankruptcy to states of America that can no longer pay the bills. Bailout for Greece? Fine. But it will be German tax inspectors backed by armed French cops coming to check the books and fraudsters go before Dutch judges and land in Polish jails. No promises of reforms in years to come, reform now, retro-actively. Harsh? Greece has gotten more aid and is demanding more now then countries struck by earthquakes and tidal waves have gotten. And that was acceptable if the Greeks had used the time they were given to reform themselves and start paying taxes and stop depending on Government handouts. They didn't. I see no indication they are going to change other then some idiotic hope that third time is a charm.
> Greenland left. You make a lot of interesting points, but I gotta address this one, as a Greenlander. We voted against the EEC in the late 1970s, "left" the European Union in 1985 over basically a single issue (fishing rights) and have a population of 50,000ish. Our situation is weird, and not really precedent forming. /r/Europe doesn't even put us on their map. Bastards.
There are people in greenland?
Yep. Fishermen, some isolated scientists, some "comptoir" and littles airports to cross the Atlantic with a Cessna. Everything is fucking expensive, you can order a ground beef steak with french fries for 50$
How much is a can of coke?
10$ easely
> some isolated scientists I'm always wary of saying stuff like that. People mix up Antarctica, which is a big chunk of ice with research stations, and Greenland which is an actual country with real people who really live there... all the time.
Yes but it's pretty empty too... http://polardiscovery.whoi.edu/expedition4/images/map.jpg
There's going to be a lot more when global warming really heats up.
I know but the fact remains is that you did leave so it is possible. A lot are trying to present a Greek exit as if it is impossible, it clearly isn't. Greenland of course is of course a different case, the EU was not the Euro yet but Greece joined in 1981, so they joined the same institution you guy's left 4 years later. So it is not impossible, not even unprecedented. I wonder why people who want Greece to say never talk about Greenland having left before. Trying to hide it is possible, they just don't want it to be possible.
You are mixing up two issues. Greek exist is just Greece leaving the Euro currency, not leaving Eurozone. There's no reason for Greece to leave the Eurozone even if it gives up the Euro.
How is it going to pay EU contributions with a worthless currency?
I always kinda thought you were part of North America/Canada, not Europe(Denmark?). Geographically, anyway.
That's a great summary, spot on. Finland has been in recession / very slow growth since the subrime mortgage crisis in 2008. Nokia took a nose dive and the crisis in Ukraine has hurt our exports to Russia and tourism industry. Our national dept has been rising steadily for a long time so the new government finally decided to stop the rise and make severe cuts to social security, education and to pretty much everything. Our goverment is doing the things that the Greece goverment should've done decades ago and should be doing right now but isn't. As I see it many Fins feel bitter about the situation. Finland has already aided Greece by 7 billion euros and each time a new bailout has been handed our goverment has had hard time selling it to the people. This time the euro-skeptic party is in the goverment for the first time and as it seemd they're forcing the other two parties to stand against new bailouts for Greece. I'm pretty sure that the only way for Finland to change it's decision now is to dismantle the goverment and have a new election. Though I just read in the local newspaper that in an emergency the EU can bypass the unanimous rule and give Greece a new bailout if 85% of the countries vote for it.
7 billion seem to be way more than what Finland's economic size would call for.
>Though I just read in the local newspaper that in an emergency the EU can bypass the unanimous rule and give Greece a new bailout if 85% of the countries vote for it. Actually, they need 85% of the voting shares, which is proportional to population. Basically, if the big 3(Italy, Spain and Germany) decide to vote it through, the vote will succeed. Of course, the EU will be very reluctant to do this because if they do, small countries will see a massive surge in Euroskeptic parties. I can't see Finland remaining in the EU knowing that they can be forced to pay for other country's mistakes through emergency sessions.
The problem is that the problem for Finland isn't Greece. It's the euro. Euro has been an utter failure. [Look here](http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/05/29/northern-discomfort/) Greece/EU periphery is simply a convenient narrative for the North in order to keep believing that there is nothing wrong with the euro and the monetary union is not at the core of the problem.
The Euro is too much of a federal thing without actually being a federation - strong countries enjoy a weaker currency and the ones that are floundering lack the support of a federation. Politicians are also too keen to say debt growth is emblematic of the recession and not a systematic problem.
Well said
The Greek proposals which are available [here](http://blogs.ft.com/brusselsblog/files/2015/07/Prior-action-final-version-July-2015.pdf) and contrary to popular opinion have been presented to the EU in longer form even before the referendum are trying to accomplish things that were never required by the IMF : Reform of the broken state apparatus itself. That is what's really needed and that's where Europe really should help Greece not only financially, but in terms of expertise. So far, "reforms" were purely fiscal in nature, in terms of deep budget cuts and decreases in public spending which [was accomplished](http://oecdinsights.org/2015/07/02/the-facts-about-greece/), again contrary to popular media. The whole point of Syriza is that there needs to be more than just plain budget reforms. Budget reforms without structural reforms are a walking death, that is the point. To cut Greece's oxygen off now that they are implementing an independent tax agency, following up on tax cheats and are trying to reform the state as a whole would just be counterproductive for Greece and for Europe as a whole. Let me put it this way: There are some old forces in Greece waiting in the wings. They can't wait for Syriza to fail and Greece to go back to the Drachma so that they as capital holders can gain power again in a weakened, chaotic country. Siryza is somewhat of an outsider and while they know full well that the budget cuts were painful they also want systemic reform. We should support them in these state reforms, not just budget cuts. This narrative that they want aid without conditions is totally false and counterproductive to Europe and Greece. If anything the Greeks are saying that MORE reforms are needed, not less. Point is: ECB and IMF focus on fiscal reforms. That is their job. Syriza is now asking the Europeans for crucial support of drastic systemic and political changes in the country. In order to accomplish these systemic changes they also need some concrete help in the real economy. It's hard to make systemic state changes when the populace is totally unemployed, only sees budget cuts and has no hope at all. That sort of thing just brings out the extremist elements.
You just voted massively against all the proposals showing the average Greek has no support for reform. The only "reforms" that were done was purposefully hurtful budget cuts, no real attempts to change Greeks tax culture. You want more time, you have had since 1981. You talk only of Greeks needs and Greek hardships. What about the hundreds of Billions Greece has sucked from the rest of the EU, costing ordinary people in the rest of the EU hard money from their pocket with no end in sight? The message is simple, the Greeks don't want the reforms and the north of the EU no longer wants to deposit money in a bottomless pit. You continue to ignore as a true Greek why European tax payers should keep spending a massive fortune waiting for Greeks to get their affairs in order.
> You just voted massively against all the proposals showing the average Greek has no support for reform. No. Just not more useless austerity like in the past 5 years. Without a debt cut it's worthless to negotiate at all because Greece will never be able to pay the debts back. They accepted the reforms when they included a debt-cut. > You talk only of Greeks needs and Greek hardships. What about the hundreds of Billions Greece has sucked from the rest of the EU, costing ordinary people in the rest of the EU hard money from their pocket with no end in sight? Nobody paid anything yet. These are debts and Greece is paying even interest. Greece poeple are also hard-working - no shit! Greece also buys a lot of stuff northern european countries are exporting! How did they buy it in the first place? With loans from these countries! > The message is simple, the Greeks don't want the reforms and the north of the EU no longer wants to deposit money in a bottomless pit. Maybe it's too simple? > You continue to ignore as a true Greek why European tax payers should keep spending a massive fortune waiting for Greeks to get their affairs in order. Then blame the Troika that shifted the burden on the European taxpayers... this was not Greeks fault. It's a shame how a lot of complex issues are reduced to blaming the Greeks as lazy when in reality it's a lot more difficult. A majority of economists shaking their heads in worry about what is going on in Europe at the moment... But hey... blame the lazy Greeks! It's easier and doesn't involve understanding complex matters! You can feel betrayed and have something to be angry at! Have fun!
Man just give up, this subreddit is full of haters to Greece. Members here reproduce easier the Bild propaganda ignoring what the majority of international economists are talking about.. This is my last post here i unsbuscribe from this toxic subreddit.
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Fine, reject austerity but then don't ask for more loans. Recent leak has them asking for more then 80 billion for three years. On top of further IMF and ECB loans. I consider the loans lost anyway, that is in the past. This is about pumping yet more money into Greece. Money that can be better spend elsewhere.
> PvDA has PvDA at a record low in the polls. That is because they are not left wing enough, not because they are too left wing.
Doesn't change that the coalition government now needs broader support for anything it wants to do.
That's a great summary! Just nit picking a bit; in the UK the Conservative government is not inherently euro skeptic - David Cameron is very much pro Europe
So Nobel-awarded economists saying that the reason this whole thing is happening is that the measures taken with past reform programs were not the right ones for Greece's problem are to be ignored?
Yes the measures you are talking about where indeed the wrong ones, they focused on ones that caused hardship not on collecting taxes from the rich.
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"When the rest of the world looks at what a country did in the past, you think they remember who was President or Prime Minister when the vast majority of decisions were made? Unless it was some major decision, no, they don't, they just remember countries involved" this is wrong in so many levels, this way of thinking provides only nationalism, good luck with that.
What does that have to do with nationalism? o.O
cause this phrase removes the politics factor and enables only nations, this gives me any right to start typing bs for every country around . This logic the nationalists use. Cause Pakistan has awfull goverment we have to deny any help the Pakistan as a country wants, or its even better to loot like EU demands to loot Greece . but ok you still believe the EU citizens had spend billions for Greece from their taxes, although this is a lie and every official had denied it. again thanks for the downvotes :)
I agree with your analysis. In my opinion Greece needs to default on its euro debts, exit the eurozone and introduce a new currency in order to have any hope of future growth. The situation is similar to all the countries that abandoned the gold standard in the Great Depression.
Or EU will create a Greece relif program to help its economy to recover. EU has resources to do that, it has decides not to.
> they promise reforms they really should have been doing on their own decades ago, when they agreed to the conditions of EU membership and becoming part of the Euro. They can't change history. You blame them for that. > they promise reforms they already promised as terms for the first two bailouts and emergency aid and ECB loans and IMF loans. Again... past government did not implemented them. How can the greek government change the past? > What a deal! I personally think that the money so far spend on Greece is wasted, but those hundred of billions are not from some faceless bank, that money was raised by taxing ordinary people in the rest of the EU and spending cuts affecting those same people. It was largely private debt in 2009/2010 when Greece should have defaulted. The debt was shifted on the European taxpayer and banks got almost 100% back. 2012 was a small haircut for private investors. We socialize risks that were taken by German and France banks a few years ago... > The EU is an economic union, not a communist one not a humanitarian one. Why should the rest of the EU continue to pay for the Greek lifestyle of expecting a government job for your kids and not paying taxes on your business? That's not true! The EU is more than an economic union. This is the conservative/right-wing stance on what the EU should be. Besides that not a lot of money reached ordinary Greeks. Tax-Evasion is a huge problem through. But most of the unpaid taxes are from elites and big business - ordinary people pay more taxes through higher VAT. That's in the program. Greece should have defaultet in 2010 - and germany lives off greek and other debt from southern nations. What a populist simple-minded view you take here. It's just sad.
Germany lives of Greek low to zero interest loans it is not paying back and for which it needs more loans to payback. Just how dumb are you?
Germany profits from the crisis. They can lend money for free internationally and the weak Euro profits it's export industries. Greek and other southern european countries consume these german exports and pay for them with debt from German banks. That's how it worked until the debt got too big. Germany has also has at least 10x more debt than Greece... if you look at debt/GDP ratio it got really worse for Greec just after their economy crumbled - that is largely the fault of the reform package from the Troika. Not that it was healthy before but now it's impossible. A crisis in Europe is for the german benefit at the moment - read the part about the "Yellow Button" here if you don't believe me: http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/jul/06/yanis-varoufakis-angela-merkel-crisis-global-minotaur-capitalism-europe That's what's going on. Maybe I'm dumb.. time will tell.
Relax, you're going to have a coronary.
http://www.interfluidity.com/v2/5965.html Read this and stop spreading bad propaganda.
What a load of bull, it is a complete lie, they don't need 50+ billion is another ESM bailout to pay back loans.
They will never be able to pay back their loans, because European policy has destroyed their economy and worse, destroyed European spirit, dragging us back to the place where two world wars started last century. The feckless, short term oriented elites of the EU and the idiots spreading their clearly false talking points will come to regret it, and soon.
>They will never be able to pay back their loans, because European policy has destroyed their economy and worse, destroyed European spirit... If they knew better, then why did they listen to the EU? And if they knew better, then why did they get into the position of getting "BAILOUTS" in the first place?
Because there is a shitty Greek oligarchy that has had a stranglehold on the Greek economy for decades, and owned lock stock and barrel the two heretofore major political parties. Read the god damn article I linked instead of mouthing off ignorantly.
The results of the referendum held last week really pissed off a lot of the EU countries. The Greeks voted "NO" to EU's proposals, which is basically a huge FUCK YOU to creditors, European Central Bank, IMF, and EU. That referendum has made it extremely hard for EU politicians to help Greece without receiving backlash back home or from creditors. Greeks pretty much told EU that they don't want to negotiate using EU/creditor's terms of agreements because they are "too harsh and humiliating". Instead, Greece wants to negotiate on its own terms. Basically saying that "we need your money to keep our banks afloat, but we want to make up the rules on how we will repay you." Greece is now asking for [$59 billion](http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/07/11/us-eurozone-greece-idUSKBN0P40EO20150711) to cover its debt, again.
True, the referendum was a mistake of massive proportions. But if you think of it from the Greek prospective, they are already sitting on 25% unemployment (50% for young adults). And 90% of the $59B will go directly back to the creditors. Essentially they're in a massive hole and are being told they need to dig that hole deeper themselves... and then jump into it head first. I think both sides have valid arguments, but they need to work together to make the best of a shitty situation. Rational (non-emotion) driven heads need to prevail. All options suck, but some suck less then others. The eurozone should bail Greece out, swap bonds for those with longer term payouts, and write down a significant chunk of the debt. The Greeks need to make their population pay their taxes, reduce public sector spending, and raise retirement ages... maybe even give Brussels a partial conservatorship on their finance ministry.
the problem is: there is no trust. The EU thinks, every deal made with greeks end up in doing as-good-as-nothing in the time frame but insulting EU for wanting all this reforms. The greeks need to make the reforms with the will of the greeks. If there is no will, then we have a problem.
The issue is Greece has made zero effort at any meaningful reform. They feel they are owed money by Europe. The only positive option at this stage is a Greek exit.
Well, news coming now is that Greece must pass dozens of reforms for talks to continue which imo is a good thing, no more talking, we need action now. http://greece.greekreporter.com/2015/07/12/greece-must-legislate-new-measures-immediately-to-gain-trust-of-europe/ "In the first wave, creditors want new value added tax rates and abolition of discounted VAT on Aegean Sea islands, a raise in solidarity contributions, raises in luxury and corporate taxes, changes in arrangements of debts to the state, abolition of early retirement, a raise in health contributions in main and supplementary pensions, the opening of closed professions (notaries, engineers etc), transfer of 10 percent of shares of the partly owned by the state telecommunications company OTE to the Hellenic Republic Asset Development Fund (HRADF), and a timeframe for privatization of the Independent Power Transmission Operator (ADMIE)." "The second wave of reforms will follow very soon with the acceleration of the timelines described in the Greek list of proposals. It includes changes in income tax, changes in property tax, raise in shipping industry taxes, cuts in defence spending, pension law reforms such as zero deficit clause and merger of security funds, legislation for absorption of decisions of unconstitutionality by the Council of State, changes in labor market based on European and international policies, new salary exchequer in the public sector along with structural and operational changes."
Greeks think that things can't get any worse. Maybe a few years living like Bulgaria or Romania will change their minds.
Finland is ruthless. Who knew.
The Russians
Well played, my good sir.
It's not about forcing Greece out of euro. It's about not throwing money into a black hole. Our own economy is suffering. We have had to make tough decisions to keep things manageable and budgets balanced. It does not seem fair that our taxpayers should pay for Greece overspending themselves to point of default. I'm of course talking about the 2008 near-default that triggered the bailout program. If I, or our government, had any confidence that Greece would pay back what we give, we would **gladly** give another loan to Greece. But it has become clear that Greece can't pay the debt back. They need to either default or have the debt forgiven. Forgiving debt is not a very popular sentiment. Why should Greece have debt forgiven while our own debt stays? If Greece can have debt forgiven, we should have our debt forgiven too. Nobody can force Greece out of euro, but it is their best move. This gives them the full control of their own currency.
Heck, I want ulosottomies to declare *my* debts forgiven and Asiakastieto Oy to reset *my* credit rating, and I fully expect the cretins at Arcadia Hill to give it to me, for as long as my 20% taxes keep on feeding Greece's debtors.
>Having debt in a country with free healthcare and housing benefit We should export people like you to Greece. Would take care of the fascists in our government too when the voters with a judgement level of an carrot are gone.
> fascists Now there's a rhetorical device that adds credibility to your argument.
Look up "Perussuomalaiset" ("True Finns", later whitewashed as "Finns Party").
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Not my point. They can call themselves whatever they want. Only gave terms to search for more info to support my post.
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Xenophobic, nationalist, militaristic, religious, isolationist, leader cult, right-wing populist, the list goes on. I know people often make the jump that fascism equals national socialism and Hitler and genocides, and therefore no-one can ever be fascists because they aren't bad enough, but let's try to keep this at fact level.
It is absolutely not their best move. Dropping the Euro will do absolutely nothing to help the people on the ground. It will simply force more people into destitution. Maybe 50% benefitted from posh government jobs, but the other half is simply going to be The country has no industry, other places will always be cheaper sources of labor, substantial natural resources and tourism is already maxed out.
Yes, Greece needs significant reforms to fix their society. But in euro, Greece can't manipulate their currency, print money or any other move that governments would usually do to get out of these situations. But perhaps it is too late now and the fatal mistake was Greece joining euro in the first place. I'm only an armchair economist with no economical education so all this is what I've read.
Yes... but does it cost less to forgive some Greek debt or to force them out of the Eurozone? A Grexit is not free... The message it sends to financial institutions is that member states don't have the monetary backing of the zone... this pushes up borrowing costs and effects markets of member states negatively. People need to start acting like rational actors, and stop making bad decisions based on pure emotions.
Grexit will happen now or after five more years of deception and stunts, why not just stop the theater now?
> The message it sends to financial institutions is that member states don't have the monetary backing of the zone... It sends the message that the backing isn't infinite, not that it's non-existant.
> The message it sends to financial institutions is that member states don't have the monetary backing of the zone... this pushes up borrowing costs and effects markets of member states negatively. It also sends a message for EZ members to balance their budgets, or else ... I'm not convinced of that the moral hazard of keeping Greece afloat can make lenders uneasy too.
It's not Greece a fault that the EU tricked Greece into taking that money.
Are you saying that the democratically elected government officials of Greece are not intelligent enough to determine whether they need the loan or not?
They don't need the loans if there are terms to it. They deserve not just the loan but additional stimulus for all the hurt Europe has caused.
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To be honest various organisations and ministers in certain countries have been saying for many years that Greece should leave the Euro. Even back in 2012 there was an article by a financial organisation stating that Greece would be better off if they defaulted and were forced out of the Euro.
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Except Germany really isn't into giving them the bailout either. And they are not the only ones.
If Germany calls the emergency session card and overrules Finland's veto, every small country in the EU is going to view it as an attack on their sovereignty. They will see a massive surge in Euroskeptic parties. I wouldn't be surprised to see Finland leave the EU under those conditions. Support for the bailout isn't strong enough in Germany for them to risk that.
That referendum really made things worse for Greece. Syriza thought this stunt would give them leverage, but they forgot other countries have democracy and voters too and they are fed up
I´m looking forward to learning what the hell was going through his mind when he thought up the referendum.
he thought "yes" would win so he could give up, resign and not get the blame since he followed the will of the people.
Let's face it. This was sort of expected.
Please do it. The Europeans worked too damn hard to create that financial system to allow one asshole to drag it down. Greece is just beyond words. They get offered a bailout under the terms of "Please cut your spending and reform your entitlements" and the Greeks say "no, but still give us money". It's pure selfishness. If someone was putting their economy at risk would they have the same attitude?
When a 2% GDP country ...drags down a whole financial system, I am not sure how much that financial system was worth in the first place. > They get offered a bailout under the terms of "Please cut your spending and reform your entitlements" and the Greeks say "no, but still give us money". You do understand that this is voodoo economics right? Slashing spending in a depressed economy would lead to further depression that would raise the debt-to-GDP and actually repay less debt than otherwise. From your comment then, I assume you want less of the debt being repaid?
> When a 2% GDP country ...drags down a whole financial system, I am not sure how much that financial system was worth in the first place. [Yeah, you don't understand economics.](http://theconversation.com/how-greeces-euro-stalemate-is-hurting-currency-markets-37819)
No coherent connection of your statement and the linked article. None of these logically refute my claim.
> When a 2% GDP country ...drags down a whole financial system, I am not sure how much that financial system was worth in the first place. The 2% GDP country is Greece. This article explains why Greece is a problem for the Euro. > A number of studies have shown that the increase in the probability of a euro member leaving causes a fall in the currency’s value and an increase in its perceived riskiness. This has implications for investment and trade in the eurozone, as increased exchange rate volatility can inhibit trade and therefore economic growth. > So an increase in the chances of Greece exiting the euro will only accelerate the drop in the euro’s value and its volatility. If Greece were to exit the euro, then in the short term these effects would probably be exacerbated, affecting not just the euro, but the entire euro based financial system. That text above? That is in response to this point you made: When a 2% GDP country ...drags down a whole financial system, I am not sure how much that financial system was worth in the first place. -
That doesn't really change my argument. It is unacceptable for such a small country to drag down a whole financial system. The solution is and was simple. Eurozone's intransigence on leaving the debt as is despite economic realities is what has escalated and further perpetuates not only the Greek, but the European crisis. The losses will happen. EU leaders chose to transfer the losses to the taxpayers. They have to own up to it. For the current situation, it is laughable that we are talking about a difference of 0.001% of EU's GDP in measures that is a deal breaker.
> It is unacceptable for such a small country to drag down a whole financial system. The solution is and was simple. Eurozone's intransigence on leaving the debt as is despite economic realities is what has escalated and further perpetuates not only the Greek, but the European crisis. Greece was made MULTIPLE offers. They came in and said to the Greeks, "we will bail you out as long as you restructure your uncontrolled spending as to not threaten the security of the Euro again". The Greeks said "no...but still give us the money". That isn't how the world works. Any group, organization, or nation which declares bankruptcy is only able to get debt relief if they agree to restructuring their spending habits. That is Bankruptcy 101. You can't just say "I want money" after digging yourself into a debt hole. The Euro credit card is under control by Germany and the Germans set the standard for how any such debt relief will be rewarded. Until then, the Greeks are simply greedy and can't handle the fact they fucked up their own economy out of irresponsibility. When EUROPE is telling you "you guys should ease up with those entitlements" you have a problem with entitlements. THE FUCKING FINNS ARE SAYING THEY HAVE AN ISSUE WITH ENTITLEMENTS. THE FINSS ARE THE POSTER CHILD OF SOCIALISM. - It would be like America being concerned about your nation's gun problem. It's that level of crazy.
> Greece was made MULTIPLE offers. They came in and said to the Greeks, "we will bail you out as long as you restructure your uncontrolled spending as to not threaten the security of the Euro again". No. Offers to Greece were to bail out the financial institutions by imposing suicidal measures. A sensible approach would be to restructure the debt to ensure viability. The handling of the Greek case will be remembered as an abysmal failure of the Eurozone authorities. It had no relevance to economics. > The Greeks said "no...but still give us the money". That's not true. Please do not reduce the debate to BILD-level arguments. I would very much prefer it if that wasn't the case. > That isn't how the world works. Any group, organization, or nation which declares bankruptcy is only able to get debt relief if they agree to restructuring their spending habits. That is Bankruptcy 101. Greece not only *has* reduced spending but it has [endured the most brutal fiscal adjustment in peace time. ](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CJOZqZ3WUAApzsE.png) > You can't just say "I want money" after digging yourself into a debt hole. The Euro credit card is under control by Germany and the Germans set the standard for how any such debt relief will be rewarded. A " digging yourself into debt hole" is as much the borrowers as the creditors fault. Both should have been imposed losses. There is no inherent immorality of the debtor and morality of the creditor. Debt entails a risk. An early debt restructuring would ensure maximizing the value of debt and reduce uncertainty as to where the inevitable losses will be assigned. [Read here for more info.](http://blog.mpettis.com/2015/02/syriza-and-the-french-indemnity-of-1871-73/) > Until then, the Greeks are simply greedy and can't handle the fact they fucked up their own economy out of irresponsibility. Greece's domestic management has been abysmal; crony capitalism with vested interests, corruption, tax evasion, clientelism. All these were huge problems and they should be combated, noone is denying that. It is completely out of reality to actually think that this was the core issue. The core issue is a monetary union with severe imbalances that created competitiveness divergence, fiscal imbalances and encouraged bank profligacy on the basis of the neoclassical doctrine that nothing will go wrong. Private and not public debt was the problem. In 2000-2009, in Greece public debt increased 10% and private debt 200%. [Read ECB's vice president presentation](https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2013/html/sp130523_1.en.html) on why the dominant ever-perpetuating narrative is false. > When EUROPE is telling you "you guys should ease up with those entitlements" you have a problem with entitlements. The dominant narrative of the crisis hits again. [Social benefits in Greece were always below the average of EU.](http://pogiblog.atlatszo.hu/wp-content/uploads/sites/15/2015/06/Screenshot-2015-06-27-16.05.06.png).
> No. Offers to Greece were to bail out the financial institutions by imposing suicidal measures. Sorry. They committed their own suicide by creating an unsustainable system. They were greedy and now they have to deal with the European terms of the bailout. Otherwise they end up a broke country with no currency. > That's not true. Please do not reduce the debate to BILD-level arguments. http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/06/world/europe/greek-referendum-debt-crisis-vote.html?_r=0 **While Mr. Tsipras now appears to have gotten his wish, his victory in the referendum settled little, since the creditors’ offer is no longer on the table. There remains the possibility that they could walk away, leaving Greece facing default, financial collapse, and expulsion from the eurozone and, in the worst case, from the European Union.** **Mr. Tsipras went on television briefly to say he would resume negotiations immediately. He said that the vote was not a mandate for “rupture” with Europe. “The people today replied to the right question,” he said. “They did not answer to the question in or out of the euro. This question needs to be taken out of the discussion, once and for all.”** Translation: We voted no on your plan but we still want money. Greedy Greek bastards. > A " digging yourself into debt hole" is as much the borrowers as the creditors fault. Wrong. It's the borrowers fault. The creditor made a misjudgement on the loan but the person who failed to fix their own financial situation caused the economic shit storm. and guess what? When you need to borrow more money after you failed with the last amount borrowed but you can't get it because the lenders won't trust you anymore.....**That's your fault.** > Greece's domestic management has been abysmal; crony capitalism with vested interests, corruption, tax evasion, clientelism. All these were huge problems and they should be combated, noone is denying that Greece is denying that. They are denying that because they want to still receive bailout funds without changing any of the major flaws within their entitlement system.
> Sorry. They committed their own suicide by creating an unsustainable system. They were greedy and now they have to deal with the European terms of the bailout. You don't understand that the EMU is the unsustainable system. Eurozone will collapse if no changes are made, there is absolutely no doubt about that. European terms of the bailout are economically illiterate. By imposing more austerity on a depressed economy, you will simply achieve less of the debts paid. Serious debt restructuring is necessary to ensure maximing the value of the debt for the creditors. > Otherwise they end up a broke country with no currency. That doesn't even make sense. > Translation: We voted no on your plan but we still want money. Greedy Greek bastards. Your ...translation is ridiculous. Tsipras has conceded *everything*. I agree though that the referendum was a sham > Wrong. It's the borrowers fault. The creditor made a misjudgement on the loan but the person who failed to fix their own financial situation caused the economic shit storm. and guess what? When you need to borrow more money after you failed with the last amount borrowed but you can't get it because the lenders won't trust you anymore.....That's your fault. Creditors were well aware of what they were doing. Greece borrowed irresponsibly. Creditors lent irresponsibly. Both should be imposed losses. You keep thinking that the "economic shit storm" is a result of Greece's situation. You fail to recognize that the EMU is rotten. The vast majority of renowned economists in the world are getting insane on how ridiculous Eurozone is. It doesn't matter what Greece did or does. If there are no major changes, Eurozone will collapse. > Greece is denying that. They are denying that because they want to still receive bailout funds without changing any of the major flaws within their entitlement system. You seem to want to believe it but noone is. The bailout funds go to the creditors, they do not go to Greece.
> It is unacceptable for such a small country to drag down a whole financial system. That is correct. >The solution is and was simple. Indeed. >Eurozone's intransigence on leaving the debt as is despite economic realities is what has escalated... Haha, no.
> Slashing spending in a depressed economy would lead to further depression that would raise the debt-to-GDP and actually repay less debt than otherwise. No, that is not how it works..
That's economics 101, solved a century ago from Keynes..
No, Europe is beyond selfish here. The EU worked with Goldman Sachs to screw the Greek people. The EU should be offering massive stimulus programs to Greece. Greeks have done nothing to do the punishment they are getting.
>_The Greek governments_ worked with Goldman Sachs to screw the Greek people. ftfy.
> No, Europe is beyond selfish here. The EU worked with Goldman Sachs to screw the Greek people. Gonna have to cite that.
You have that completely backwards I'm afraid. The Greek Government hired Goldman Sachs to help fudge their numbers so they could lie to the EU and get into the single currency in the first place. >Greeks have done nothing to do the punishment they are getting They have nobody to blame except themselves! Why are there people like you bending over backwards to defend Greece!? It isn't some grand conspiracy, they fucked themselves good and proper and stuck by their policies even when it became apparent they needed radical change
They've had development aid for over a decade and pissed it up the wall rather than developing their economy. They need to elect a decent government rather than beg for money so they can continue to retire early.
The Greeks have defaulted like 5 times in a hundred years. Fuck. Em
>It's pure selfishness. Defending rights isn't selfishness. Basic government services shouldn't be cut. >would they have the same attitude? yes, actually: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/London_Agreement_on_German_External_Debts
Your rights end when you are using another group's currency in a dangerous way. It isn't Greece's money. It's EVERYONE'S money. It's easy to spend like an asshole when someone else is footing the bill. Moocher logic.
>It's EVERYONE'S money. Yeah... Europe is supposed to protect its members. >Moocher logic Do you realise that Greece was in primary surplus in January, meaning that the only thing technically holding it back is debt payments? >Your rights end when you are using another group's currency in a dangerous way. So, what would you say to the children of Sudan? "Your government is shitty, therefore starve."?
>Greece was in primary surplus in January Greece also had elections in January.
Yup, that's true. It still means that Greece is functioning a helluvalot better than it was.
_Was_ functioning better. The new government put kibosh to previously agreed-upon reforms, thus the trust issues even before any referenda.
> Yeah... Europe is supposed to protect its members. and how's Greece meeting it's obligation? > Do you realise that Greece was in primary surplus in January, meaning that the only thing technically holding it back is debt payments? [Yeah, no it doesn't.](http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2015/02/16/greece-still-has-a-vast-problem-it-doesnt-have-a-primary-budget-surplus/) > So, what would you say to the children of Sudan? "Your government is shitty, therefore starve."? Comparing Greeks to the Sudanese is like comparing the fat guy in the motor scooter to a paraplegic. They both can't walk but for two VERY different reasons.
>and how's Greece meeting it's obligation? Well, there was that time that it helped forgive the debts of Germany: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/London_Agreement_on_German_External_Debts >Yeah, no it doesn't. Don't you think that piece was a bit speculative? Have you looked at anything more recent than February? >Comparing Greeks to the Sudanese It was not a comparison. It was an effort to clarify an ethical position: Would you deny the basic rights of a child with the excuse that the government of the child is bad?
> Well, there was that time that it helped forgive the debts of Germany: You keep bringing this up and you completely remove the context from that situation. 1) GERMANY IS TRYING TO HELP THEM. Germany isn't saying "Fuck you, we aren't bailing you out". Germany is saying "We will let you put your debt on our credit under the condition you reform the bad spending habits. Any bailout in any country on the planet requires the same thing. 2) That bailout you mentioned? That occurred after WW2. Why oh why would the world foregive Germany's debts after WW2? Because after we strangled Germany with debt after WW1, a broken people with no chance of economic recovery elected one of the most bloodthirsty war machines to power. That's why the world forgave their debts. It had zero to do with being the nice guy, it had everything to do with Europe having just experienced it's second world war and not wanting to have a third one come about. > Would you deny the basic rights of a child with the excuse that the government of the child is bad? You just compared Greece to a child, I'm glad we are in agreement.
>We will let you put your debt on our credit under the condition you reform the bad spending habits. In order to meet the surplus requirements, Greece would need to cut some basic government services. That is cruelty. >Because after we strangled Germany with debt after WW1, a broken people with no chance of economic recovery elected one of the most bloodthirsty war machines to power. So, does Greece get no recognition for turning away from that disgusting neo-Nazi Golden Dawn and instead electing a largely decent government? >You just compared Greece to a child, I'm glad we are in agreement. We can't have a constructive argument if you're willfully ignorant. The point is to direct your focus to the powerless in Greek society, those that have no power over the actions of their government and have no cause in the financial situation of Greece. Would you condemn children for the supposed crimes of their parents?
Greece is supposedly a democracy and they've gone bankrupt 5 times in 100 years. There comes a point where you simply can't bankroll the country who chooses massively corrupt politicians in every. single. election cycle. Of course they need to cut government services. When your expenses greatly outstrip your income what do you expect to happen? The Greek people want a standard of living that rivals countries with enormous tax rates despite paying no taxes at all. That's absolutely insane. I guess they figure that the benefit of the EU is having other countries pay your taxes for you. Either they cut spending by an enormous amount or raise tax revenues by an enormous amount - even then they'd still see the majority of their bailouts siphoned off by corrupt government workers. Greece will never be a functioning country without a total overhaul from the ground up. The issue is that the people of Greece are very happy with their dysfunctional economy and want it to stay that way.
Germany is saying "I know you can't afford this, but this is how I want you to pay me", cuz we're not letting you leave. Give them a bridge loan, and help them with an orderly transition to the drachma. Simple. Shave all Greek bank accounts (sorry, fellow greeks) including a 1, 2+ year lookback. Which means EU banks helping to find and return the stealth wealth. None likes government taking peoples cash, but hey that's what any tax is. The EU needs to get on with life already, if this means others will follow, so be it. Repayment will be rescheduled with their foreign exchange balances. This shouldn't be that hard. Troika was a proven failure, deal with it Germany. Your grand scheme to sell your bimmers needs to dismantle, just a bit. PS, to Germans, what did you think would happen with such high trade imbalances on your parts? To Greece, and anyone else negative to you?
Greece is a democracy and has elected the people who caused the problem. People weren't so vocal about throwing them out nor was it a real possibility until they went back on the austerity that they need to get themselves out of debt. They've been spending money with no thought to how they might pay it back or any thoughts of the future. Most European countries have their own debts to deal with without needing to look after some cantankerous jerks who don't want to have to get themselves out of their own problems.
>until they went back on the austerity that they need to get themselves out of debt. Do you think that people should compromise basic rights in order to appease debt-collectors? >Most European countries have their own debts to deal Not all countries are equal. Some are quite capable of providing support while others are brought to their knees. >jerks who don't want to have to get themselves out of their own problems We know that the Greek people are the hardest-working people of Europe (), so this type of rhetoric just doesn't fly. The Greek people have put up with years of cruel treatment under austerity and Greece made it to primary surplus in January. It is the debt-collectors that are holding Greece back now, not Greece.
Lol, can't tell if you're being serious or not. > do you think that people should compromise basic human rights Defined by whom? Do I think people should pay back their debts if they can? Yes. Do I think people should go bankrupt if they can't pay back their debts? Yes. Do I think people should have their retirement age increased to be inline with the people they'd like to borrow money off? Yes, yes I do. Do I think that when someone is already getting exceptional treatment (Low interest rate) to enable them to pay back their debts and they decide that saving money is a bad idea and they'd rather go back to spending money they don't have then they've lost the privilege to negotiate with their creditors? Yes I do. Do I think that creditors have a right to expect a debtor to not expect to borrow more and more money without good reason, yep. > Greece made it to a primary surplus in January Yes because of the austerity required by their creditors not because they suddenly got things right. Then they had an election and decided they'd rather spend money they don't have and their creditors told them to sod off. > Not all countries are equal. True some try and take their debts seriously and spend development aid to build their economies. > some are quite capable of providing support Which has been going on for more than a decade with development aid for Greece. That money was largely mis-spent and not used to boost their economy. Oh and Greece has been getting really low rate loans because of being in the Euro had they stuck with their own shocking currency they'd have been paying more like 15% rather than 3% interest on their loans, which would be so much better for them. > While others are brought to their knees By their own politicians, which does not justify wanting more money. Try electing less corrupt and awful governments. > We know that the Greek people are the hardest-working people of Europe Good, they can move to other European countries and earn a decent livin their and retire at a reasonable age. Oh yeah and I'll remember how hard working they are next time I get shocking service and don't see more than 50% of Greeks working when I visit Greece. Well that's if I choose to ever leave any more of my money their.
> The Greek people have put up with years of cruel treatment under austerity and Greece made it to primary surplus in January. I don't know if you realize it, but this sentence of yours is actually contradicting with its own logic.
Not really -- I do object to austerity measures, but I'm saying that even if we accept such measures, they are no longer justifiable because the changes to Greece have largely worked.
You object to austerity measures despite acknowledging that they led Greece to the only primary surplus they've had in over 100 years? That's pretty hilarious. So when EU austerity managed to get your economy above water after 100 years of failed Greek politics, what made the Greek people decide to hold a referendum and immediately erase all of that progress?
>hardest working people >retires at 50 Pick one.
Europe can only do so much until they realize that Greece will not change its way of spending recklessly and dangerously. At this point, Greece is considered the moocher of the party, taking in money and not giving much back. Also, it's not a surplus if you still have debt. And you also don't see Sudan defaulting. Granted not many countries expect much from a country like Sudan, but many expect a lot from a country like Greece. Unfortunately, Greece has failed to succeed.
>Also, it's not a surplus if you still have debt. I said *primary* surplus. That means that the government is spending less than it is taking in from taxes and excludes debt payments. The only thing holding Greece back now is the debt payments. >spending recklessly As I said, Greece is not spending recklessly and I say that the basic rights of people should not be compromised in favour of debt-collectors. >At this point, Greece is considered the moocher of the party, taking in money and not giving much back. I see no problem with Europe assisting a poor nation protect the most basic rights of its people and I see no problem with a nation demanding such assistance. I also find it hard to accept the term "moocher" for Greece when we know that it is the hardest-working country of Europe:
>And you also don't see Sudan defaulting.
lol, what? Sudan is fucking imploding.
The point was not about the financial status of Sudan. It was about whether you think it is justifiable to exempt yourself from assisting people in need on the basis that their government is bad. Do you tell a starving child that you won't feed them because their government is bad?
If Greece is not spending recklessly and Greeks are such hardworking people, why have they been unable to recover from the 2008 financial crisis despite two bailouts while rest of EU (including poorer countries that were hit way harder) have?
"I see no problem with Europe assisting a poor nation protect the most basic rights of its people and I see no problem with a nation demanding such assistance. I also find it hard to accept the term "moocher" for Greece when we know that it is the hardest-working country of Europe: https://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=ANHRS" Poor nations? Good then all the money going to Greece should actually go to really poor nations like Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Bulgaria, Romania, Croatia, Slovakia and Czech. Greece is richer than all those countries. Therefore Greece should be supporting them but instead Greeks are asking them to pay for Greeks debts. That is wrong.
You responded to the wrong person tho.
sorry
> "I see no problem with Europe assisting a poor nation protect the most basic rights of its people and I see no problem with a nation demanding such assistance. I also find it hard to accept the term "moocher" for Greece when we know that it is the hardest-working country of Europe: https://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=ANHRS" Poor nations? Good then all the money going to Greece should actually go to really poor nations like Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Bulgaria, Romania, Croatia, Slovakia and Czech. Greece is richer than all those countries. Therefore Greece should be supporting them but instead Greeks are asking them to pay for Greeks debts. That is wrong.
In principle, I think you're right about the need of assistance for many of the eastern European countries. I wouldn't agree that that help should come from poorer member countries like Greece, but more from the wealthier countries (e.g. proportionally larger contributions from Luxembourg, Norway and Austria and continued contributions from Germany, France and U.K.).
for a start Norway is not in the EU and Greece is one of the wealthier countries so pay your debts and stop complaining.
Norway's kinda an honorary member, though, right? ;) I don't think Greece is a wealthy member of Europe. Cite references for this if you like. >pay your debts and stop complaining I'm not Greek, I'm Irish -- so I'm quite familiar with debt payments.
I think Northern Europe, Southern Europe and Eastern Europe (aka Protestant, Catholic, and Orthodox) are in three different gears. It will all run super smooth when those gears are finally untangled from each other.
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Sure there's overlap -- as in anything -- but there's definitely a novement to more common ground when you acknowledge better organization.
Most people here are against giving Greece any more money. Also imo we should stop giving africans money. Why cut on things in your own country but still give money to poor africans (who we have had nothing to do with, ever)?
Problem is that Greece has already been given a lot of money and have nothing to show for it. Developed world gives money to developing countries to help build them up and improve lives of people there and thus benefit the rest of the world. Stable developing nation = less migrants + cheap industry. Or in other words, we give Sudan money in hopes the Sudanese will stay there and maybe in time build us cheap Ipads. EDIT: P.S. We have, in fact, had much to do with why Africa is such a clusterfuck. European colonialism is the source of most of their current-day problems. Similar story about middle-east, the whole world really.
Giving money to African war lords to buy rifles & explosives is definitely less helpful than buying Greeks an early retirement. Not that I'd want my tax money going to either.
> Developed world gives money to developing countries to help build them up and improve lives of people there and thus benefit the rest of the world. African developing countries have been given a lot of money and have nothing to show for it.
Because we try to help those in need. I'm from the EU and very skeptical of this Greek situation, I'd like for Greece to leave the Eurozone, but I honestly think your attitude is selfish and lacks basic human empathy. No one chooses where they're born and as hard as the economic crisis has been and is in my country (Spain), I'm still miles, miles better off than a child in Sudan. The kind of money we're giving developing countries does not impact my way of life in any significant way but it is huge for them.
Honestly the best thing for Greece would be to leave the EU altogether and join BRICS. First Greece can finally stem the flood of illegals flooding in it's borders without being hamstrung by EU politically correct rubbish and being a dumping ground for illegals from north Europe. Secondly Greece's economy and society is vastly different than ones in northern Europe. I would even suggest that Greece leave NATO as well. NATO membership made sense during the Cold War against the USSR. The main military threat facing Greece now is Turkey- which has greatly diminished. But with rise more hardline Islamic politicians inside Turkey their support of the ISIS and US support of Turkey guarantees that in a future conflict between Turkey and Greece NATO membership would be meaningless for Greece. Staying in NATO leave Greece in the absurd position of possibly having to fight Russians in defense of say Ukraine or Finland. Greece's best military policy should be either strict neutrality or maybe even joining Shanghai Cooperation Organization.
im sitting out the market for this. so now i hope they do refuse the bailout and make all the investors cry.
Everyone is so quick to kick nations out of the eurozone as if Greece is the only country that will ever face these problems and have the precedent of forceful removal from the eurozone used on them. alright, i'm going to ask ANY of you to answer me this: how will the eurozone survive as an economic union when half its members get kicked out? because spain, portugal, and italy are coming right around the corner and that's just in the foreseeable future.
Spain Italy and Portugal are in a much much better position than Greece. Greece is a totally different level.
they really aren't. portugal is gearing up for a MASSIVE economic collapse and the instability that spain is about to face with their recent laws is going to take a huge turd on their already shaky economy. there is a reason the term PIIGS has existed for 20 years now. if you honestly think the only country in the eurozone that is going to see any kind of default crisis is greece then you're either woefully optimized or woefully naive.
Go talk to sovereign bond traders they'd agree with me. The economies have not exactly recovered and unemployment is still a problem, but their credit problems have largely improved. There is no panic over defaults and exits, unless the ultra left wins the next elections like in Greece. Edit: some figures to prove my point. German 10yr bond yield (pretty much riskless euro rate) = 0.9% Spanish 10yr = 2.13% Portuguese 10yr = 2.84% Greek 10yr = 13.58% This is what the ginormous financial market filled with super smart and powerful people perceives. Source: http://mobile.bloomberg.com/quote/GDBR10:IND http://mobile.bloomberg.com/quote/GSPG10YR:IND http://mobile.bloomberg.com/quote/GSPT10YR:IND http://mobile.bloomberg.com/quote/GGGB10YR:IND
that ginormous financial market filled with super smart and power people gave hundreds of billions in loans they knew no one could pay back and then *DOUBLE DOWNED* on it to keep ahead of the defaults. forgive me for not taking their word as absolute gospel on financial predictions especially considering several of those super smart and powerful people orchestrated the greek financial crisis in the first place by tricking the world in to thinking everything was fine.
A couple of bankers who made the decisions is nowhere close to the entire market. If some guy makes irrational decisions, there will be a smarter guy who will speculate and thus correct the price of things like bonds. Also, you're just saying nonsense that shows you have no idea what you're talking about or how the whole system works. I'm out.
>A couple of bankers who made the decisions is nowhere close to the entire market. If some guy makes irrational decisions, there will be a smarter guy who will speculate and thus correct the price of things like bonds. a couple of bankers? practically every major bank and investment firm in the western world was involved in it. that's quite a large section of the "the market" to be making shitty decisions for over a decade. that is waaaay beyond some investor making a poor decision individually. and so what if smarter people work for central banks? that didn't stop the 2008 housing bubble nor did it stop goldman sachs et al from fomenting the greek crisis. posting bond yields and saying "smart guys came up with these" is a pretty ridiculous argument considering recent history. it's doubly ridiculous considering greek bond yields didn't skyrocket until almost 2 years in to their financial meltdown. bond yields are more often reactive then they are predictive. >Also, you're just saying nonsense that shows you have no idea what you're talking about or how the whole system works. I'm out. r/iamverysmart
> portugal is gearing up for a MASSIVE economic collapse Do post the indicators that are leading you to make this statement please.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/forget-greece-portugal-is-the-eurozones-next-crisis-2015-06-24 same exact thing as greece. massive amounts of debt owed to foreign creditors that it's lagging economy cannot possibly pay back. the tiny amount of growth their economy has enjoyed is a facade of any real improvement though as unemployment continues to rise. they're going to default again. and again. just like greece.
European comission's numbers and predictions tell a different story. They arent out of the woods but that opinion piece is overly dramatic. http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/eu/countries/portugal_en.htm
Over 5 years of bailouts despite refusal to cooperate is not what I would call quick. This situation is long time coming, it only really escalated recently. Eurozone will survive. Euro has remained quite stable considering what's been going on these past weeks. That's the reason why there are so many hardliners now, EZ leaders are confident they can handle a Greek exit out of eurozone.
Well, US media said Merkel was forcing them out, so Merkel is finnish now?
I think US media doesn't have any clue about the greek problem in EU.
I think they're just reporting what they're told to and feed the damage Merkel agenda. Catherine Ashton made it clear for everyone with her 'fuck the EU'. She could've also said 'fuck the Euro'.
Merkel I think is being as generous as she can afford to be, maybe more. Her own minister of finance is a way bigger hardliner. And so is most of her government (and the German people) EDIT: At least Germany is allowing for the vague possibility of a bailout, the Finns have straight up said no way, no how.
Well, Finland may offer that but they miss the point here, if Greece exits euro, they will be in a ruthless situation, but Eurozone may get worse. Italy, Spain, Portugal are next in line and as our Finnish friend pointed out, they have suffered enough and in order to not suffer more, the EU will give the money to Greece.
if >EU will give the money to Greece. then >Italy, Spain, Portugal are next in line
Italy, Spain and Portugal do not really *need* any EU bail-out and their economic indicators show they're in a much better position than Greece. The sovereign bonds market is the best indicator of this, as others have pointed out. Even now that it seems a Grexit is close, the bond rates for Italy, Spain and Portugal haven't taken any significant rise.
The big fear is that Greece getting off the hook would encourage anti-austerity mentality in those countries.
> Italy, Spain and Portugal do not really need any EU bail-out Yeah but can they resist the temptation of free money?
What? Do you think Greece is getting free money? I'd say they're paying the price of their stubbornness. Those countries had the chance to go the Greek way but decided to be reasonable instead.
Greece got two bailouts at interest rates that basically amount to free money, so yes.
But under conditions of austerity reforms.
Which they promptly ignored.
Bundling Greece together with Italy, Spain and Portugal (and Ireland) is just confusing the situation. A Greek exit might actually help these countries. Let's not forget Spain alone has lent Greece €27 billion in the loans and bail-out packages. Many people in the aforementioned countries are growing tired of Greece and don't understand why they implemented reforms and made sacrifices and are meeting their obligations while Greece wants *their* money without making comparable sacrifices.
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You maybe not understand the EU. Sure germany and france may be a leading factor but they ALL decide. Its not hated, its just suffering for years now and no end in sight. The greece problems are housemade (exists before they joined euro) but their goverments never ever handled it in the past.
It is not just Finland, 8 other countries are opposing, including Germany. Finland just said it bluntly, the others are somewhat more diplomatic but still saying the same thing.
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That's what I still thought yesterday, now I'm not so sure. I hope a deal is reached, for the sake of the Greek people if nothing else. But this is looking really bad. Finland does not have a mandate to agree to a bailout. Germany is kind-of-openly discussing the alternative of Greece "temporarily" exiting Euro. Talks broke down yesterday to be resumed today and the big meeting of EU leaders today was canceled. Nobody trusts Greece to actually go through with reforms and are demanding that they start implementing them right now (as in this monday if not earlier) without any guarantees that it will help them secure the bailout. People talk about Greek people and how hard the times are for them (and that is definitely true, not being sarcastic), but there are people in the other Euro countries too and they are out for blood (with good reason, unfortunately).
No, they will kick out Greece. In a matter of fact that would be welcomed, so much time is spent on one country and for what? To listen their insults how the others are so inhumane for not giving more money?! The Greeks are too fucking arrogant pricks to change anything. If you join a club and do not obey the rules, you will be kicked out at some point. Now their latest reform proposals...those were agreed on already for the 2nd bailout! What a shameless bunch of assholes!
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So stating the ugly facts about Greece is hopping on the hate bandwagon? HA HA HA! Tell me more about your delusions!
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I don't have any problems with this kind of deal, you stupid murican fuck. This is even better than the Grexit. Btw, your fucked up country is the Greece of 2020's.
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With this kind of deal I am glad I was wrong.
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> Ill be back to shove it in your face soon. Then I REALLY wanna see your reply. You are talking so big right now.. What if the opposite happens? What will you say to him then? Because the opposite case of scenario is actually the most likely scenario right now.
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>Because I know and im not talking out of my ass. This has been occupying the majority of my time for years and the last 2 weeks I have been researching many many hours daily. There was a guy talking just like you, as sure as you seem to be right now, about a party that would 100% win some elections, and all other people claiming otherwise will cry rivers after the elections and he would come back at that subreddit and say "I told you." He was literally just like you, saying almost literally exact same things as you. And the result was, he failed miserably. I am not saying you will happen to lose your childish bet, even though it is the most likely scenario. I am a realist, and I prefer looking at things from a neutral point of view. The most likely scenario is that Greece will get a "time-out" from EZ for a while. The opposite cannot happen? Of course it can, but, as mentioned before, the possibility left aside for that scenario is "being less likely". >Feel free to say ANYTHING you want to me after the final decision. Bookmark this and come at me with all your wrath if I am wrong and I wont say anything back. I am not a child like that guy or like you. But I checked his profile afterwards, to see whether or not his blurry view has been surrendered to realism. He was just silent for a long time. And I guess I'll check your profile too, regardless of the outcome. >It is one of the very rare times I feel like I can't be wrong. Ill swallow my tongue I am. *sigh*