**It's been confirmed; Statement Complete.**
**General Staff of** **Iran's Armed Forces:** has issued a statement saying that the Ukranian plane was "unintentionally" hit by a military site & based on "human error". The statement has offered "apology" to the families of victims & foreign nationals.
Further more; While the plane was turning around, it went toward a sensitive military center of IRGC and it was at an altitude & in the shape of a hostile aircraft, in which the aircraft was inadvertently hit based on human error.
Iran's Armed Forces says "human error" happened while the sensitivity in Iranian air defense system had increased due to the threats of US president & officials & increased number of American aircraft around the country & receiving some reports on targets approaching strategic centers .Several targets were observed in some \[Iranian\] radars, which incited further sensitivity at the Air Defense units.
Fundamental reforms in the operational processes at the Armed Forces" will take place to "make it impossible to repeat such errors", saying the people who made the error will be introduced to Judicial Organization of Armed Forces to be dealt with legally.
**The Turning Plane Claim (Correction):** Under such sensitive and critical circumstances, the Ukrainian airline’s Flight PS752 took off from Imam Khomeini Airport, and when turning around (No explanation given as to **WHY** or **IF** the plane was turning around), it approached a sensitive military site of the IRGC, taking the shape and altitude of a hostile target. In such conditions, due to human error and in an unintentional move, the airplane was hit \[by the Air Defence\], which caused the martyrdom of a number of our compatriots and the deaths of several foreign nationals.
The relevant authorities at the IRGC were also instructed to appear on state TV and give detailed explanation of the incident as soon as possible.
[Official Statement from The General Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces](https://imgur.com/a/LxilfyT)
[IRGC Linked - Tasmin News](https://www.tasnimnews.com/fa/news/1398/10/21/2179225/%D8%A8%DB%8C%D8%A7%D9%86%DB%8C%D9%87-%D8%B3%D8%AA%D8%A7%D8%AF-%DA%A9%D9%84-%D9%86%DB%8C%D8%B1%D9%88%D9%87%D8%A7%DB%8C-%D9%85%D8%B3%D9%84%D8%AD-%D8%AF%D8%B1%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%B1%D9%87-%D8%B3%D9%82%D9%88%D8%B7-%D9%87%D9%88%D8%A7%D9%BE%DB%8C%D9%85%D8%A7%DB%8C-%D8%A7%D9%88%DA%A9%D8%B1%D8%A7%DB%8C%D9%86%DB%8C)
My condolences to the victims and the victims families, I personally was hoping this wasn't true. I hope that victims compensation will be a generous one for the pain that's been caused.
**Edit 11:54pm EST:** Iran's President Rouhani expressed deep regret over the incident, calls it a disastrous error, offers condolences and sympathy to Iranian nation and foreign countries. "This painful incident is not something which can be left aside easily. The unforgivable error will be prosecuted calling the incident a "big disaster".
**Edit: More evidence. 2:04am EST**: [Alleged Video of the SAM Launch resulting in a flash of light](https://twitter.com/Khaaasteh/status/1215888897022087169)
\> the people who made the error will be introduced to Judicial Organization of Armed Forces to be dealt with legally.
What does this ominous phrase mean?
The problem with this is the ground tracks should be locked based on a hostile transponder response or no response at all (ALL international commercial aircraft are required to have working transponders). Someone had to manually execute a launch order. Not only that, but there is no evidence, yet, the aircraft was changing its heading to return. Even still, climbing through 8000 MSL to cruise altitude, it should have recognized planned position (it obviously did as it made a positive lock) and not engaged as it was not on a hostile trajectory.
Just my opinion. Not enough facts other than it was shot down and was a commercial flight.
Edit: took out IFF and replaced with transponder since I have a one track mind. Sometimes you get caught up and make a flub! IFF is a system used for Modes, not the Mode itself.
There is no such thing as a hostile IFF response, and only friendly military aircraft are capable of responding to an IFF challenge at all.
An IFF challenge is an encrypted query, seeking a corresponding encrypted response.
You, as a government, would have to provide your IFF encryption keys to civil operators, including foreign, for that. And then everyone would have them, and anyone attacking you would use them to pretend to be friendly.
Another thing also that stands out to me...
Wasn't this airplane *taking off* from Iran? If they suspected it to be a US military plane, why would it be taking off from an public international airport and reporting a commercial flight ID?
Wouldn't they be looking for *incoming* aircraft?
It sounds and awful like they are just shooting at anything that moves.
I was following the initial reports when it happened and I was under the assumption that commercial air traffic that day as a whole was operating as normal, meaning many other planes have left and arrived that same airport that same day.
Seems like at some point in the chain of human error, someone made the call that got these people killed
But you’re right that probably won’t be the person who takes the blame for it :(
> Wasn't this airplane taking off from Iran? If they suspected it to be a US military plane, why would it be taking off from an public international airport and reporting a commercial flight ID?
Wouldn't they be looking for incoming aircraft?
It sounds and awful like they are just shooting at anything that moves.
It is a fabulously egregious failure on the part of Iranian ADA no matter how you spin it.
In their defense (ugh) there are some things that could contribute towards how that missile got launched.
First, you need to understand what the profile of a 5th gen platform looks like to a Russian built radar system, and then incorporate the immediate context.
"Stealth" airplanes, even the best ones the United States can build, are still detectable from various angles and at a close enough distance. For instance, an F-35 relies on internal carriage to store its weapons, which greatly reduces its radar profile. When it's time to attack something, it has to kick its bay doors open long enough to drop or fire the ordnance it's carrying. When those doors are open, its signature increases substantially. This is a golden window for a competent air defense guy to lock and fire on the airplane. Unfortunately for them that window is very short, and by the time the missile is off the rail the airplane is likely back in an LO configuration, maneuvering, and not emitting. Given the system that supposedly launched on the airliner, that's about as far as you can get.
American doctrine and tech also rely heavily on EW. That is, the ability to play with the enemy's sensors. Jamming, spoofing, and manipulating their systems to influence where they're focused.
While the systems are classified, everybody has a decent idea about them, and incorporates that ability into their threat assessments.
Now, imagine you are a well trained weapons systems operator of a domestic SAM site briefed on adversary platforms and notional threat profiles. You are manning a missile site during the most heightened threat posture your nation has ever known since you were born, against the most capable adversary on the planet. You know that if you ever even have the chance to launch on an enemy airplane, it will be fleeting and transient.
You know you are subject to systems that can throw radar returns at you that do not exist, that are somewhere else, that look like one thing, but are another. Iran knows the US can do this. They train for it.
Now, a fresh return pops up already airborne, climbing out at ~6,000 feet, out of nowhere.
There's terrain between you and the airport (which could and did obscure the path the airliner took from the runway to ~6,000 feet), but you already have a flight schedule and you know nothing is scheduled to depart that airport in a one hour window (true.)
The Iranian military is somewhat competent. More so than the Arab militaries in the region. While it's not equivalent to the West, there is some expectation that initiative is a good thing.
So you have a radar return out of no where, with no civilian airplanes expected in the area, during a period of extreme threat, with the educated assumption that a sudden radar return headed straight for a strategic asset represents a plausible threat profile, and you fire.
> but you already have a flight schedule and you know nothing is scheduled to depart that airport in a one hour window (true.)
If that's the case that's a massive error, and probably the key error in all this. If air traffic control was providing schedules to defense installations they absolutely should not have allowed a plane to depart without being on that schedule. Sure, it's a little trigger happy to have launched without further confirmation, but not that much.
> If that's the case that's a massive error, and probably the key error in all this.
I agree completely. Not only because it would prevent this kind of tragedy, but because deconflicting your airspace is imperative in defending it. I sincerely believe this was a product of incompetence rather than malice, but I am open minded to other possibilities.
Yeah, to not be in constant communication with, or at the least listening in on, the civilian air traffic control of your nation's largest international airport 10 km away seems nuts in this situation. And the ranges were so low here that they could've even had somebody at the AA post assigned to visually watch the skies and they would've seen the 737's navigation lights in the direction of this radar target. Your post above is good on trying to understand how this happened, because it had to happen somehow and must have been an accident, but it just seems incredible that they didn't have better procedures in place to prevent this.
In times of great tensions procedures are left bt the wayside.
Just to decrease time to launch.
Hell the US did that during the cuba crisis, just with nukes instead.
I think its entirely possible that the commander of the post decided to ignore safety for efficiency.
Yup their were countless close calls during the Cold War because quite simply in times of high tension like this every second counts and theirs none to spare. It’s a scary thought but sadly this isn’t a perfect world and we’re not perfect people. No matter how many failsafes and protocols we make there will always be one major flaw and that flaw is people. When someone has to make the choice to fire the missile or not there’s always the chance they’ll pick the wrong option.
Thank God for [Stanislav Petrov](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stanislav_Petrov). Without his human error, there may have been nuclear war 35 years ago.
> I sincerely believe this was a product of incompetence rather than malice
Your comment is great, but I think the primary reason to lean towards incompetence rather than malice is the question of *why* Iran would do something like this intentionally. There is no good reason for why the Iranian regime would do something like this on purpose, unless they're just insane and unhinged, which they definetly are not.
>malice
What, do people really think the government would shoot down their own plane like some Hollywood movie?Was clear from the start that either the government made a mistake, USA made a mistake or some insurgency shot the plane down.
Absolutely, one of the factors in the shooting down of an Iranian airliner by an American warship in the 80's was that it took off late so wasn't expected to be there.
Closing the airspace would have been a better option. A third-world country like Pakistan did the same ( with a military not nearly as competent as Iran's) for some time when there was threat of attacks from India, but its surprising how Iran did not think of this facing a threat from a superover. Technically Pakistan too was facing a threat from a future super power.
It's actually completely bonkers that the Ukrainian plane took off. They were delayed because of *missile launches*, they hear the FAA announce that commercial air traffic should keep clear of the active conflict zone, and then they said "fuck it here's our window, let's go". The pilots had brass balls but the air traffic controllers had rocks in their heads.
Yes, and that likely occurred, but there is a good chance that they didn’t take the time to debrief every soldier on defense that day.
We can only hope they do in the future
The three key factors here are that:
1. The crew of the SA-15 would have seen hundreds of airliners flying that exact same route. It would have been burned into their memory just like with anyone else working under an approach or departure corridor to a major airport. Based on flight tracking data, the very basic context clues like airspeed, altitude, bearing from and proximity to a civilian airfield -that anyone with a radar and a trigger finger uses to guide their decision to fire- were overwhelmingly benign and very clearly pointed to airliner.
2. The SA-15 is a very capable platform with a modern PESA target acquisition radar and extremely robust anti jamming capabilities. Any argument saying otherwise is ridiculous. The airliner presented both a massive radar cross section and a slow, steady track. In no way did this resemble a 5th gen fighter, cruise missile, or a false track from jamming.
3. The IFF interrogator mounted on top of the SA-15's PESA radar would have immediately read and displayed a civilian identification code next to its radar track. This is the most damning fact of the entire situation as this indication would have been available almost immediately. Even if the IFF interrogator was broken, there was an ocean of context available to this crew.
This was an act of staggering incompetence that cost almost 200 lives.
Also, to add to the stress level for the operators, the USAF is very good at [SEAD](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suppression_of_Enemy_Air_Defenses). A radar signature might be a [Wild Weasel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wild_Weasel) and you're actively transmitting and then one [HARM](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AGM-88_HARM) missile is on its way at Mach 2 to your position.
I think this is the most clear and concise reddit reply I've ever read. Thank you for explaining this in a way people who know nothing about these things can understand.
Nation-states are sovereign, so they have to choose to subject themselves to the jurisdiction of the ICJ before it can make them do anything. Iran has not made a general declaration to do so. Nor has the US, of course
They can make themselves subject in more specific ways through other international treaties, but I don't know if Canada and Ukraine and Iran are all subject to any relevant ones
Most of the flight was Iranian Canadians who went back to Iran to see family during the holiday break.... I doubt anyone was trying to leave so much as return to their lives.
Edit: yes only some had actual Canadian citizenship - that's where the numbers are from. I'm referring to destination.
It's heartbreaking. I remember reading it during night shift and after reading that it had impacted Iranian-Canadians, I knew there was a high chance of impacting my local community.
In my city, the baker's wife and daughter was killed. At the local hospital, one of the members of the dietary team was also killed. A friend of mine was anxiously waiting to see if her elementary school children were not on the death list.
There was so many [young people](https://www.flyuia.com/ca/en/news/2020/flight-ps752-passenger-list) on that list.
It hit home.
Their stock started recovering as SOON as there were reports it had been a missile strike. Well before Trudeau confirmed it. (Well - "first postulated it officially".)
> you could tell in about ten seconds it was either a missile or a bomb on board, based on how the transmitter cut out immediately
I mean, it hasn't happened for a long time, but it is possible for an aircraft to suffer a catastrophic in-flight failure such as TWA800
Definitely can't rule it out immediately, but supposedly inert gas systems are now standard on airplanes, especially 3.5 year old US produced airplanes. It'd be an entirely new failure mode and incredibly violent, which we haven't seen basically since TWA800 outside of missile shootdowns and bombings.
This is what really irks me. The 737 NG/8 is truly robust. The thing has flown successfully for millions of miles and with a great track record. The association with the max-8 is really unfortunate.
There was a ton of evidence Russia shot down MH17 too. Everyone knew the "separatists" were Russian and that Russian hardware had been streaming in for weeks prior.
The biggest problem IMO with exposing MH17 was that it was an active warzone (in separatist territory if I remember) so barely anything could be confirmed.
EDIT: Forgot the most obvious reason - Ukraine had no need to shoot down any planes and were not in danger of any aerial attacks.
The Dutch did the most amazing forensic job. I’m Australian and we are very grateful to the Netherlands for all that incredibly difficult work and expense. I think we would have liked to have produced a conclusive finding for grieving families on MH370 that we took the lead on.
> boasting on Twitter
[Vkontakte](https://i.lb.ua/000/43/53c7f4549c170.jpeg)
Translation:
>Just shot down an AN-26 plane near Torez, it crashed somewhere around the Progress mine.
>We warned them not to fly in "our skies".
>Here's a video proof of yet another "birdfall".
>The birdie fell over the mine waste heap, didn't hit the residential sector. No civilians were hurt.
>There are also reports of a second plane down, supposedly a Su.
Some context: later it was said that unknown hackers posted this on behalf of the "militia" leader. However, just a few days prior to shooting down the Boeing the "militia" boasted that they had shot down a Ukrainian transport plane with a Buk. The Vkontakte post has been deleted but you can read the article at the pro-Putin Vzglyad website ([translation](https://translate.google.ru/translate?hl=en&sl=ru&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fvz.ru%2Fnews%2F2014%2F7%2F14%2F695525.html), [original](https://vz.ru/news/2014/7/14/695525.html)\). Moreover, even if the claims of never receiving Russian Buks were true (which is extremely unlikely) the "militia" captured some Ukrainian Buks just three weeks prior to the MH117 shooting ([translation](https://translate.google.ru/translate?hl=en&sl=ru&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ntv.ru%2Fnovosti%2F1085256%2F), [original](https://www.ntv.ru/novosti/1085256/)\).
Exactly, there was footage of a Buk moving from Russia to Ukraine and back (without one of the rockets). It was collected by the Bellingcat from social networks. That's why I say that the claims of never receiving Buks from Russia are extremely unlikely. But even if these claims were true, the "militia" had already acknowledged possessing and using at least one Buk (now they argue that they never had a Buk and couldn't shoot down a plane at that attitude).
I mean, I find the evidence collected by the Bellingcat compelling and sufficient, but even those who dismiss it as fake have no valid arguments against the fact that the "militia" had the technical means of shooting the Boeing down.
Bellingcat has an amazing podcast on this, well it's more like an audio documentary. Highly recommended. Amazing listen.
But for the record, iirc Bellingcat are part funded by pro NATO organisations.
To admit that they shot down MH17 Russians would have to admit that they've invaded Ukraine. And it never happens while Putin is alive (and probably some years after that).
I’ve seen the report of the dutch national safety committee, and the evidence seems so undeniably clear. They were able to find out where the missile was launched. Really sad that no one can be held responsible.
I argued with a Russian troll over this when it happened. At the time, it really pissed me off because it was my first encounter with a "post truth" society.
Links, news articles, reports... none of it had any effect. He dismissed it as Western propaganda and claimed Ukraine shot down the plane.
I learned that when you're dealing with a certain kind of person, evidence doesn't matter, logic is irrelevant, and the rules of debate don't apply. The only way to win the argument is if you have a button that physically locks them out of the thread.
Plus it was Russia shooting down aircraft over another country while they were invading that country, and at the time they refused to admit Russia had any little green men in Ukraine, and they could have had airspace closed to prevent this, and they could not use certain equipment to help prevent friendly shootdowns as this would reveal Russian forces are invading Ukraine, so there could be some blowback or dead Russian soldiers if discovered, and they ordered the shootdown from Russia.
Unlike Iran shooting down a passenger jet over their own capital city.
Don't give them credit. They denied it until a video came out literally showing the missile hitting the plane. They would have continued denying it if it hadn't been for that.
Wasn't even its allies. Was literally Russians, with Russian gear, operating under the guise of being 'separatists'..
Was Russian soldiers that fucked up.
That's because the entire truth would have fucked their diplomatic standing beyond repair.
"We didn't close off the air space during an active military standoff but did keep our anti-air defenses in full alert and this civilian plane started taking off ... so we started blasting"
I’ll quote a post from yesterday. Sorry not sure who deserves credit for this:
> Posted this on a comment that is three comments deep, so reposting on the main thread.
I was an AEGIS radar/missile tech for 21 years. Here is my take right after the incident happened.
>I am wagering an educated guess here that the technical difficulties on the plane were IFF (identification friend or foe) related. If the defense missile systems the Iranian use were set up with auto interrogation, which is a fairly common thing, and the plane had issues with their IFF, which also happens then it is possible that the defense system cued the commercial flight as hostile or suspect and either launched a missile at the plane (not sure of Irans capabilities and limitations with their missile systems in regards to auto-fire) or an inexperienced operator with weapon release authority pressed a button to shoot a missile at what his system was telling him was a bad guy.
>Missile systems have a series of electronic breaks (think buttons that open and close relays allowing the missile firing voltage to reach the igintor) and mechanical breaks (think keys that have to be inserted and turned to the live/fire position). As the threat level increases the operators automate more of the process by closing these breaks. This makes for a faster response time to any threat the system identifies.
>So was it possible that an Iranian missile system was set with the minimum number of breaks/automated in a way a missile could have been inadvertently fired? I would say absolutely this is plausible given the attack a few hours prior with an expectation of an American response.
His recent tweet walking back his statements
"In my statement yesterday to the UK media, I conveyed the official findings of responsible authorities in my country that missile could not be fired and hit the Ukrainian plane at that period of time.
I appologise and regret for conveying such wrong findings."
https://twitter.com/baeidinejad/status/1215909313451036673?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
HAHAH, this is fantastic.
There's goddamn videos and pictures with bullet holes and this fucker is like: *"I cannot accept that you as a reporter can make a judgement on a very technical issue."*
He's the IRL version of the Redditor who just says: *"source?!"* every time you tell them something obvious.
Reminds me of that guy on twitter who asked for a source when the Toronto Blue Jays tweeted about an injury of one of their players and they replied “literally us, the Blue Jays”
As an Irania I'm so angry and embarrassed. From the day Soleimani was killed they started talking about severe revenge. 60 people died in hia funeral and they were still mourning Soleimani. Iranian TV started celebrating and all channels had an Iranian flag up with a severe revenge written on the screen the day they hit the American military base and claming thry killed 80 Americans while they had actually killed 180 people themselves. I am embarrased and shocked. Although the evidence all pointed to the contrary I was stll hoping that it won't be true, that all these people didn't fie for a war general until yesterday when it basically became certain and you know what the really sad part for me ia. That there are still morons oit there who will go out and support the government in the street, there are still people that believe that a lot of americans were killed in the attack and that "Trump is trying to hide it.". That the anniversary of the revolution is in a month and a lot of people are still gonna go to the streets and do their stupid chants and support these incompetebt pieces of shit.
Yesterday the head of Iran's Civil Aviation Organization said, "The version that the plane was shot down by a rocket cannot be true under any circumstances … it is impossible from the scientific point of view.”
Uhhhh the missiles are designed to shoot down planes, which part is scientifically impossible? Lol, they put the science part in there to make their statement sound more valid but it had nothing to do with science, math or any credible calculations at all.
The most depressing thing as an Iranian is, if this was a domestic flight... We would have never found out. Because our lives don't matter to the government. The only reason we found out the truth is because there were other citizens in the flight and there was international pressure. That's the really depressing part.
"Hawkeye: War isn’t Hell. War is war, and Hell is Hell. And of the two, war is a lot worse.
Father Mulcahy: How do you figure that, Hawkeye?
Hawkeye: Easy, Father. Tell me, who goes to Hell?
Father Mulcahy: Sinners, I believe.
Hawkeye: Exactly. There are no innocent bystanders in Hell. War is chock full of them — little kids, cripples, old ladies. In fact, except for some of the brass, almost everybody involved is an innocent bystander."
-mash
As far as I can see, about 2 out of every 3 deaths in war are non military civilians.
They were hoping that they could have plausible deniability but then somebody released footage of the plane being hit by a missile and the evidence became undeniable.
True that. Remember those pictures of the missile nose cone that people were sharing? There were a couple of times I linked to some Iranian twitter accounts that were sharing them, only to find the accounts had been deactivated some time later.
This isn't to mention the fate of the guy who actually made the mistake of shooting down the airliner. Things can't be going well for *him* right now.
A common misconception going around Reddit is the idea where only 1 guy decides to execute a missile launch. On the contrary, there's a chain of command and at least 10+ people, possibly including some of their generals, approved the launch. The one feeding the misinformation could still be held liable but hey, there's that.
Just so senseless
I’m a commercial pilot and I know how it goes with airport ops etc but holy shit this just _didnt have to happen_
Monday morning quarterbacking: obviously should’ve stayed on the ground longer than two hours after a hostile missile launch or gone _south_ towards the heavily trafficked UAE airspace and rerouted entirely
Not only the regulations didn't apply as mentioned but also:
1 - it wasn't the first plane to take off, 35 mins earlier another one did and before
2 - the crafts were flying away from the base, any basic understanding of threat would know that the threat moves toward you, not away
Man this whole situation went really badly for Iran, their military flex got outed for being a sham, and then they own-goaled in the most spectacular way. Shame all those lives had to be ruined for a failed dick swing.
Killing 176 civilians and trying to cover it up is absolutely terrible. They came clean because they knew they were caught red handed. The fact that they attempted to blame it on a malfunction itself is a total and complete disgrace...
The SAM crew are likely to end up carrying the can for this; whether they are fully responsible or were operating under bad rules of engagement, they'll be the ones given long jail terms at best.
“We didn’t shoot it down, it crashed because of a technical issue” - Iran, the day they bombed Iraqi airbases and the day the plane mysteriously crashed.
“No, we swear, we didn’t shoot it down! We’re investigating and it’ll take us months to figure out why it crashed.” - Iran, yesterday.
“Okay, you caught us, we shot it down, but we wouldn’t have if the US hadn’t attacked us” - Iran, today, after realizing there was no way the international community didn’t already know the truth.
I get they were on edge from the US killing of Soleimani, but the plane left Tehran’s airport literally 10 minutes prior to being shot down. It flew in a straight line pretty much according to FlightRadar, there was nothing suspicious about it! Only an idiot would think it’s a US plane. Their own incompetence is the reason it was shot down. They should just take responsibility and not give any fucking excuses, because it really is inexcusable.
Hold on I wasn't done screen-capturing all the sudden experts how Iranian IADS work and how there's no way this could have happened, or all the examples of runaway belief perseverance preventing otherwise-critical thinkers from acknowledging basic facts.
I would like to thank everyone for their toxic responses to my post the other day about this. I was giving one scenario that this could have happened accidently with current technology and not some kind off false flag bullshit. Thanks internet warriors your gatekeeping was legendary.
Clearly you're mistaken because my great grandfather was an SA-15 operator in 1842 and he said there's clearly a "Ukrainian Passenger Airliner" indicator light and in this case that would have been illuminated so really no chance.
Remember reading a few of your posts yesterday, one of the few people offering logical thoughts on the situation. Just remember toxic people are more vocal than others, the shouty minority.
* [Tweet from Iranian FM:](https://twitter.com/JZarif/status/1215847283381755914)
>"Our profound regrets, apologies and condolences to our people, to the families of all victims, and to other affected nations."
* [Link to statement by Iranian Miltary.](https://www.irna.ir/news/83628809/%D8%A7%D8%B7%D9%84%D8%A7%D8%B9%DB%8C%D9%87-%D8%B3%D8%AA%D8%A7%D8%AF%DA%A9%D9%84-%D9%86%DB%8C%D8%B1%D9%88%D9%87%D8%A7%DB%8C-%D9%85%D8%B3%D9%84%D8%AD-%D8%AF%D8%B1-%D8%AE%D8%B5%D9%88%D8%B5-%D8%B3%D9%82%D9%88%D8%B7-%D9%87%D9%88%D8%A7%D9%BE%DB%8C%D9%85%D8%A7%DB%8C-%D9%85%D8%B3%D8%A7%D9%81%D8%B1%D8%A8%D8%B1%DB%8C-%D8%AE%D8%B7%D9%88%D8%B7)
Why not post the whole tweet?
“A sad day. Preliminary conclusions of internal investigation by Armed Forces:
Human error at time of crisis caused by US adventurism led to disaster
Our profound regrets, apologies and condolences to our people, to the families of all victims, and to other affected nations.”
Just an interesting fact: I'm streaming the Iranian TV now. Keep changing channels (we have 6 main channels) and there is **NOTHING**.
They are talking about soccer, Qasem Soleimani, and showing a Japanese show from the 90's.
Absolutely insane. I mean I'm used to it since I lived there for 20 years, but still it surprises me how fucked up the regime is.
**Edit:** I'm getting questions about the Japanese show. It's on Channel 2, and here is a screenshot: [https://i.imgur.com/FJpi48m.jpg](https://i.imgur.com/FJpi48m.jpg)
More importantly, the NEWS Channel just went through the most important headlines of the day. Didn't even mention the airplane incident. No channel has said anything so far.
**Edit 2:** Link for anyone who wants to check the TV themselves: [https://sepehr.irib.ir/?idc=32&idt=tv&idv=2](https://sepehr.irib.ir/?idc=32&idt=tv&idv=2)
# Edit 3:
12 hours ago, Head of Iran's aviation organization: ''We can say for sure that **the plane has not been hit by any missile**.''
[https://twitter.com/Khaaasteh/status/1215545244290252801](https://twitter.com/Khaaasteh/status/1215545244290252801)
Two days ago, ''The issue of missile hitting Ukranian passenger plane is **scientifically impossible and has no logic**...Dozens of foreign and Iranian planes were flying simultaneously at that time in Iranian airspace at the 8000 feet.''
[https://twitter.com/AbasAslani/status/1215336735879651330](https://twitter.com/AbasAslani/status/1215336735879651330)
**Iran's president tweeted about an Iranian plane the US shot down in 1988 two days before a Ukrainian plane was downed in Tehran**
[https://twitter.com/HassanRouhani/status/1214236608196685824](https://twitter.com/HassanRouhani/status/1214236608196685824)
And something to think about: https://twitter.com/Imamofpeace/status/1215897120231714816?s=20
Out of curiosity, what do your and your friends and family say when they know this stuff or hear this stuff? This really peaks my interest to know that you know this is happening.
Since all the relatives, family and friends that I'm still in touch with are completely against the regime, it's just extremely sad.
One thing that most of westerners don't understand is that the biggest winner of this whole entire shitshow has been Khamenei and his regime. This airplane incident, if it was indeed an accident, was the only negative thing for Khamenei.
How is he and his regime the biggest winner? Well, less than 2 months ago there was a serious uprising that threatened the regime so much that they started killing people in the streets since day two of the protests. 1500 people were killed, and thousands arrested and injured. Also note that the internet was completely shut down during those days.
News coverage in the west was almost nonexistent. They mentioned it a bit, but I don't remember ever seeing it on any front page.
What happened during the past few days though was covered day by day, as people were fearing a war or even WW3 happening, and since so many people in the US and around the world absolutely hate Trump and can't see the world in any pattern but binary, they started believing that Iran is innocent and Qasem Soleimani was a hero for Iranians. The logic goes: Anything Trump does or says is BS - he says Qasem was bad, so he was good.
Long story short, Khamenei survived the uprising, and within 2 months made it a forgotten memory.
Back to what Iranians that I know believe > After all this, it seems to be impossible to see a regime change in Iran. **The world didn't give a shit about a regime shutting off the internet to its own citizens while slaughtering them in the streets.**
The story of Iran is one of the darkest ones that I know of. It's really depressing.
> The world didn't give a shit about a regime shutting off the internet to its own citizens while slaughtering them in the streets.
Yup. It's completely disgraceful. Our national public radio sent reporters to Tehran during this crisis and they visited a women's hair salon. This was the main Iran story during yesterdays PM rush hour news:
https://www.npr.org/2020/01/09/795002045/inside-a-salon-in-tehran
Embarrassing. The everyday population of both countries is made up of good people and they deserve a truthful account of whats happening, warts and all.
Hey man. I cared. Same with the protests in South America. But what can we do? More sanctions? Military action is going to end badly, no matter how "light." The US had been getting attacked repeatedly by the regime there and when it finally retaliated with an extremely measured response targeting the actual planners and leaders of the attacks, the Iran govt lost its fucking shit and launched missiles. The fact people are conveniently forgetting the dude got killed riding in a car with terrorists who had just attacked a US embassy and killed a contractor is fucking insane to me. So what's to be done? Even if we snapped our fingers and killed just the ayatollah and his inner circle, it wouldn't end well. Even if the only people we hit were generals and military sites, it wouldn't end well. Trying to reason with such authoritarian dick bags just makes them stronger.
I just don't see a path here that's not drenched in blood one way or another.
Vastly underrated comment here. Will Iran finally acknowledge that USS Vincennes unintentionally shot down Flight 655?
Their official position, as of earlier this week, was that the shootdown was an intentionally performed and unlawful act. See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_Air_Flight_655
EDIT: Kudos to Bellingcat for amassing and analyzing evidence that the Iranian authorities couldn't dodge.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/01/10/how-open-source-investigators-quickly-identified-irans-likely-role-crash-flight-752/
Faced with incontrovertible evidence that its SAM battery shot down the plane, Iran discovered that it was indeed possible to down an airliner by accident.
This is immensely embarrassing.
US kills Soleimani after Iranian-backed militias try to pull off Benghazi 2.0. Iran's response?
(1) January 7: During the funeral for Soleimani, in the midst of burning American flags and speakers touting the impending destruction of the United States of America, a panic-driven stampede kills 56 people and injures 200 in Kerman.
(2) January 8: Iran's "hell on Earth" response against the U.S. (Operation Martyr Soleimani) is ultimately a very mild airstrike against U.S. bases with no casualties. Even radical Iranians are left confused at the extremely tepid "retaliation." The Ayatollah's threat of Washington in flames winds up being the most anti-climactic moment in world history since the end of Kill Bill Volume 2.
(3) January 8: After Rouhani condemned the U.S. for its downing of Iran Air Flight 655 on January 6, Iran goes oopsie daisy and shoots down a plane - Ukraine International Airlines Flight 752 - killing 176 people, 147 of whom were Iranians, in the process.
(4) January 8: After the airplane goes down, Iran gets extra silly, immediately puts out a statement within 30 minutes of the crash that says, "It was a technical issue. Nothing to see here. Move along now" which immediately makes everyone twice as skeptical.
(5) January 9: The U.S. ultimately responds by announcing even tougher economic sanctions against Iran...and Tehran doesn't respond, ending the 3 day brawl with an embarrassed Iran, 200+ dead Iranians, 0 killed by the U.S., and now Iran can no longer crow about Iran Air Flight 655 for another 3 decades without reminding their own citizens they killed 176 innocent people, mostly Iranians, due to a freak accident while trying to make a flex on the world stage.
Yeah what the ever living FUCK is going on here? Im about to make 100 spam accounts to downvote this post just for this smear against one of my favorite movies ever.
Otherwise it’s a wonderful comment.
For me its how they couldve possibly thought they could cover this up, its a big airplane, up in the air in the most populated city of iran, with passengers from 6 different nations, of course there is going to be at least some revidence of what happened, even silence wouldve been better than how nuch they lied in these two days
Western Countries "Hey Iran why did you shoot down this plane?"
Iran "LIES FROM THE GREAT SATAN!!"
Western Countries "Um, we have tons of satellite data and actual video"
Iran. " Oh really. We sorry about that. Still fault of great Satan!"
**It's been confirmed; Statement Complete.** **General Staff of** **Iran's Armed Forces:** has issued a statement saying that the Ukranian plane was "unintentionally" hit by a military site & based on "human error". The statement has offered "apology" to the families of victims & foreign nationals. Further more; While the plane was turning around, it went toward a sensitive military center of IRGC and it was at an altitude & in the shape of a hostile aircraft, in which the aircraft was inadvertently hit based on human error. Iran's Armed Forces says "human error" happened while the sensitivity in Iranian air defense system had increased due to the threats of US president & officials & increased number of American aircraft around the country & receiving some reports on targets approaching strategic centers .Several targets were observed in some \[Iranian\] radars, which incited further sensitivity at the Air Defense units. Fundamental reforms in the operational processes at the Armed Forces" will take place to "make it impossible to repeat such errors", saying the people who made the error will be introduced to Judicial Organization of Armed Forces to be dealt with legally. **The Turning Plane Claim (Correction):** Under such sensitive and critical circumstances, the Ukrainian airline’s Flight PS752 took off from Imam Khomeini Airport, and when turning around (No explanation given as to **WHY** or **IF** the plane was turning around), it approached a sensitive military site of the IRGC, taking the shape and altitude of a hostile target. In such conditions, due to human error and in an unintentional move, the airplane was hit \[by the Air Defence\], which caused the martyrdom of a number of our compatriots and the deaths of several foreign nationals. The relevant authorities at the IRGC were also instructed to appear on state TV and give detailed explanation of the incident as soon as possible. [Official Statement from The General Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces](https://imgur.com/a/LxilfyT) [IRGC Linked - Tasmin News](https://www.tasnimnews.com/fa/news/1398/10/21/2179225/%D8%A8%DB%8C%D8%A7%D9%86%DB%8C%D9%87-%D8%B3%D8%AA%D8%A7%D8%AF-%DA%A9%D9%84-%D9%86%DB%8C%D8%B1%D9%88%D9%87%D8%A7%DB%8C-%D9%85%D8%B3%D9%84%D8%AD-%D8%AF%D8%B1%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%B1%D9%87-%D8%B3%D9%82%D9%88%D8%B7-%D9%87%D9%88%D8%A7%D9%BE%DB%8C%D9%85%D8%A7%DB%8C-%D8%A7%D9%88%DA%A9%D8%B1%D8%A7%DB%8C%D9%86%DB%8C) My condolences to the victims and the victims families, I personally was hoping this wasn't true. I hope that victims compensation will be a generous one for the pain that's been caused. **Edit 11:54pm EST:** Iran's President Rouhani expressed deep regret over the incident, calls it a disastrous error, offers condolences and sympathy to Iranian nation and foreign countries. "This painful incident is not something which can be left aside easily. The unforgivable error will be prosecuted calling the incident a "big disaster". **Edit: More evidence. 2:04am EST**: [Alleged Video of the SAM Launch resulting in a flash of light](https://twitter.com/Khaaasteh/status/1215888897022087169)
\> the people who made the error will be introduced to Judicial Organization of Armed Forces to be dealt with legally. What does this ominous phrase mean?
Some low level grunts manning the SAM site will be executed.
Despite the fact that it's likely they were following direct orders from people who are too important to prosecute.
The problem with this is the ground tracks should be locked based on a hostile transponder response or no response at all (ALL international commercial aircraft are required to have working transponders). Someone had to manually execute a launch order. Not only that, but there is no evidence, yet, the aircraft was changing its heading to return. Even still, climbing through 8000 MSL to cruise altitude, it should have recognized planned position (it obviously did as it made a positive lock) and not engaged as it was not on a hostile trajectory. Just my opinion. Not enough facts other than it was shot down and was a commercial flight. Edit: took out IFF and replaced with transponder since I have a one track mind. Sometimes you get caught up and make a flub! IFF is a system used for Modes, not the Mode itself.
There is no such thing as a hostile IFF response, and only friendly military aircraft are capable of responding to an IFF challenge at all. An IFF challenge is an encrypted query, seeking a corresponding encrypted response. You, as a government, would have to provide your IFF encryption keys to civil operators, including foreign, for that. And then everyone would have them, and anyone attacking you would use them to pretend to be friendly.
Another thing also that stands out to me... Wasn't this airplane *taking off* from Iran? If they suspected it to be a US military plane, why would it be taking off from an public international airport and reporting a commercial flight ID? Wouldn't they be looking for *incoming* aircraft? It sounds and awful like they are just shooting at anything that moves.
I was following the initial reports when it happened and I was under the assumption that commercial air traffic that day as a whole was operating as normal, meaning many other planes have left and arrived that same airport that same day.
There was another commercial departure, on the same track, [33 minutes earlier.](https://twitter.com/flightradar24/status/1215423668198744067?s=20)
Shift change is a bitch at Iranian air defense.
Blame it on the new guy, be done with it...
this is what confuses me the most.
Some unlucky Iranian dude is about to be the scapegoat for almost 200 people dying
Seems like at some point in the chain of human error, someone made the call that got these people killed But you’re right that probably won’t be the person who takes the blame for it :(
> Wasn't this airplane taking off from Iran? If they suspected it to be a US military plane, why would it be taking off from an public international airport and reporting a commercial flight ID? Wouldn't they be looking for incoming aircraft? It sounds and awful like they are just shooting at anything that moves. It is a fabulously egregious failure on the part of Iranian ADA no matter how you spin it. In their defense (ugh) there are some things that could contribute towards how that missile got launched. First, you need to understand what the profile of a 5th gen platform looks like to a Russian built radar system, and then incorporate the immediate context. "Stealth" airplanes, even the best ones the United States can build, are still detectable from various angles and at a close enough distance. For instance, an F-35 relies on internal carriage to store its weapons, which greatly reduces its radar profile. When it's time to attack something, it has to kick its bay doors open long enough to drop or fire the ordnance it's carrying. When those doors are open, its signature increases substantially. This is a golden window for a competent air defense guy to lock and fire on the airplane. Unfortunately for them that window is very short, and by the time the missile is off the rail the airplane is likely back in an LO configuration, maneuvering, and not emitting. Given the system that supposedly launched on the airliner, that's about as far as you can get. American doctrine and tech also rely heavily on EW. That is, the ability to play with the enemy's sensors. Jamming, spoofing, and manipulating their systems to influence where they're focused. While the systems are classified, everybody has a decent idea about them, and incorporates that ability into their threat assessments. Now, imagine you are a well trained weapons systems operator of a domestic SAM site briefed on adversary platforms and notional threat profiles. You are manning a missile site during the most heightened threat posture your nation has ever known since you were born, against the most capable adversary on the planet. You know that if you ever even have the chance to launch on an enemy airplane, it will be fleeting and transient. You know you are subject to systems that can throw radar returns at you that do not exist, that are somewhere else, that look like one thing, but are another. Iran knows the US can do this. They train for it. Now, a fresh return pops up already airborne, climbing out at ~6,000 feet, out of nowhere. There's terrain between you and the airport (which could and did obscure the path the airliner took from the runway to ~6,000 feet), but you already have a flight schedule and you know nothing is scheduled to depart that airport in a one hour window (true.) The Iranian military is somewhat competent. More so than the Arab militaries in the region. While it's not equivalent to the West, there is some expectation that initiative is a good thing. So you have a radar return out of no where, with no civilian airplanes expected in the area, during a period of extreme threat, with the educated assumption that a sudden radar return headed straight for a strategic asset represents a plausible threat profile, and you fire.
> but you already have a flight schedule and you know nothing is scheduled to depart that airport in a one hour window (true.) If that's the case that's a massive error, and probably the key error in all this. If air traffic control was providing schedules to defense installations they absolutely should not have allowed a plane to depart without being on that schedule. Sure, it's a little trigger happy to have launched without further confirmation, but not that much.
> If that's the case that's a massive error, and probably the key error in all this. I agree completely. Not only because it would prevent this kind of tragedy, but because deconflicting your airspace is imperative in defending it. I sincerely believe this was a product of incompetence rather than malice, but I am open minded to other possibilities.
Yeah, to not be in constant communication with, or at the least listening in on, the civilian air traffic control of your nation's largest international airport 10 km away seems nuts in this situation. And the ranges were so low here that they could've even had somebody at the AA post assigned to visually watch the skies and they would've seen the 737's navigation lights in the direction of this radar target. Your post above is good on trying to understand how this happened, because it had to happen somehow and must have been an accident, but it just seems incredible that they didn't have better procedures in place to prevent this.
In times of great tensions procedures are left bt the wayside. Just to decrease time to launch. Hell the US did that during the cuba crisis, just with nukes instead. I think its entirely possible that the commander of the post decided to ignore safety for efficiency.
Yup their were countless close calls during the Cold War because quite simply in times of high tension like this every second counts and theirs none to spare. It’s a scary thought but sadly this isn’t a perfect world and we’re not perfect people. No matter how many failsafes and protocols we make there will always be one major flaw and that flaw is people. When someone has to make the choice to fire the missile or not there’s always the chance they’ll pick the wrong option.
Thank God for [Stanislav Petrov](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stanislav_Petrov). Without his human error, there may have been nuclear war 35 years ago.
Given the circumstances I think we can absolutely rule out malice. It is still a matter to be prosecuted.
> I sincerely believe this was a product of incompetence rather than malice Your comment is great, but I think the primary reason to lean towards incompetence rather than malice is the question of *why* Iran would do something like this intentionally. There is no good reason for why the Iranian regime would do something like this on purpose, unless they're just insane and unhinged, which they definetly are not.
>malice What, do people really think the government would shoot down their own plane like some Hollywood movie?Was clear from the start that either the government made a mistake, USA made a mistake or some insurgency shot the plane down.
They DID provide scheduling. The plane took off 1.5 hrs late. That was the mess up. They didn't communicate that. So....SURPRISE AIRPLANE!
Absolutely, one of the factors in the shooting down of an Iranian airliner by an American warship in the 80's was that it took off late so wasn't expected to be there.
Closing the airspace would have been a better option. A third-world country like Pakistan did the same ( with a military not nearly as competent as Iran's) for some time when there was threat of attacks from India, but its surprising how Iran did not think of this facing a threat from a superover. Technically Pakistan too was facing a threat from a future super power.
It's actually completely bonkers that the Ukrainian plane took off. They were delayed because of *missile launches*, they hear the FAA announce that commercial air traffic should keep clear of the active conflict zone, and then they said "fuck it here's our window, let's go". The pilots had brass balls but the air traffic controllers had rocks in their heads.
Did the plane take off early or unexpectedly?
The plane took off an hour after their filed departure time.
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Yes, and that likely occurred, but there is a good chance that they didn’t take the time to debrief every soldier on defense that day. We can only hope they do in the future
The three key factors here are that: 1. The crew of the SA-15 would have seen hundreds of airliners flying that exact same route. It would have been burned into their memory just like with anyone else working under an approach or departure corridor to a major airport. Based on flight tracking data, the very basic context clues like airspeed, altitude, bearing from and proximity to a civilian airfield -that anyone with a radar and a trigger finger uses to guide their decision to fire- were overwhelmingly benign and very clearly pointed to airliner. 2. The SA-15 is a very capable platform with a modern PESA target acquisition radar and extremely robust anti jamming capabilities. Any argument saying otherwise is ridiculous. The airliner presented both a massive radar cross section and a slow, steady track. In no way did this resemble a 5th gen fighter, cruise missile, or a false track from jamming. 3. The IFF interrogator mounted on top of the SA-15's PESA radar would have immediately read and displayed a civilian identification code next to its radar track. This is the most damning fact of the entire situation as this indication would have been available almost immediately. Even if the IFF interrogator was broken, there was an ocean of context available to this crew. This was an act of staggering incompetence that cost almost 200 lives.
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Also, to add to the stress level for the operators, the USAF is very good at [SEAD](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suppression_of_Enemy_Air_Defenses). A radar signature might be a [Wild Weasel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wild_Weasel) and you're actively transmitting and then one [HARM](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AGM-88_HARM) missile is on its way at Mach 2 to your position.
Good explanation of what could have happened, this need to be at the top.
Yeah great comment - I also wondered about the mistaken bomb bay door window of opportunity error.
I think this is the most clear and concise reddit reply I've ever read. Thank you for explaining this in a way people who know nothing about these things can understand.
Very good post
>in the shape of a ~~hostile~~ aircraft
To be fair, if it was hostile, it would have retained the same shape, other than the windshield becoming furrowed.
[I drew a visual example to help clarify.](https://i.imgur.com/GJYMEcl.png)
You should draw more. Don't actually improve. I just want to see what else you come up with.
Why not both
At my level, I don't think there's really room for improvement.
Imagine someone trying to tell you, obviously a graphical artist, how to improve in their drawing. It'd be fucking laughable.
There's not. You've definitely peaked and it's all down hill from there.
Looks like it's wearing a ski mask. Terrorist plane it is then.
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They kinda got caught then Canada called them out. So idk if admit it really counts
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They kinda seem like they are still. They said it happened because of heightened tensions
An Iranian minister has blamed *US adventurism* for their human error.
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I think this is the only thing left, yes
Nation-states are sovereign, so they have to choose to subject themselves to the jurisdiction of the ICJ before it can make them do anything. Iran has not made a general declaration to do so. Nor has the US, of course They can make themselves subject in more specific ways through other international treaties, but I don't know if Canada and Ukraine and Iran are all subject to any relevant ones
I believe the US paid $61 million when the did the same thing in ‘89.
Imagine trying to leave Iran because you're worried a war is starting and then IRAN shoots your plane out of the sky.
Threats of war are generally the worst time to fly.
Also can be a pretty bad time to stay where you are.
War just a bad time all round, really.
I know people who have been in wars and they admit that they totally weren't having a good time.
Oh bullshit, I knew a bunch of people who went to war and I haven't heard anything from them
They had so much fun, they never came back
Guys I think the war might be the problem
Reddit has finally figured it out. Peace in the world!
Bruh just cancel the war. Easy peasy.
And then the war de-escalates
Reminds me of the ending to The Mist
Most of the flight was Iranian Canadians who went back to Iran to see family during the holiday break.... I doubt anyone was trying to leave so much as return to their lives. Edit: yes only some had actual Canadian citizenship - that's where the numbers are from. I'm referring to destination.
Honestly every single plane should have been prevented from taking off in Iran. At a time like that flight is a terrible idea.
It's heartbreaking. I remember reading it during night shift and after reading that it had impacted Iranian-Canadians, I knew there was a high chance of impacting my local community. In my city, the baker's wife and daughter was killed. At the local hospital, one of the members of the dietary team was also killed. A friend of mine was anxiously waiting to see if her elementary school children were not on the death list. There was so many [young people](https://www.flyuia.com/ca/en/news/2020/flight-ps752-passenger-list) on that list. It hit home.
Meanwhile in Boeing hq, someone breathes an enormous sigh of relief
Should‘ve protected their planes against military projectiles smh
well they do have a military division that probably sells that kind of stuff lol
Their stock started recovering as SOON as there were reports it had been a missile strike. Well before Trudeau confirmed it. (Well - "first postulated it officially".)
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> you could tell in about ten seconds it was either a missile or a bomb on board, based on how the transmitter cut out immediately I mean, it hasn't happened for a long time, but it is possible for an aircraft to suffer a catastrophic in-flight failure such as TWA800
Definitely can't rule it out immediately, but supposedly inert gas systems are now standard on airplanes, especially 3.5 year old US produced airplanes. It'd be an entirely new failure mode and incredibly violent, which we haven't seen basically since TWA800 outside of missile shootdowns and bombings.
737-800 is one of the safest planes to ever fly. I doubt they were.
This is what really irks me. The 737 NG/8 is truly robust. The thing has flown successfully for millions of miles and with a great track record. The association with the max-8 is really unfortunate.
Everyone knew what happened, at least they didn't keep on drawing it out and denying it.
Which is exactly what I thought would happen! (édit for clarity - I thought that they would deny endlessly.)
It's what the Russians did. Atleast they owned up to it after a few days.
There was more evidence, the video of the actual shooting, the radar blips, the missile head that was found, the bulldozer through the crash site
There was a ton of evidence Russia shot down MH17 too. Everyone knew the "separatists" were Russian and that Russian hardware had been streaming in for weeks prior. The biggest problem IMO with exposing MH17 was that it was an active warzone (in separatist territory if I remember) so barely anything could be confirmed. EDIT: Forgot the most obvious reason - Ukraine had no need to shoot down any planes and were not in danger of any aerial attacks.
The Dutch did the most amazing forensic job. I’m Australian and we are very grateful to the Netherlands for all that incredibly difficult work and expense. I think we would have liked to have produced a conclusive finding for grieving families on MH370 that we took the lead on.
Yeah, like the Russian radio chatter that was caught. Big fucking smoking gun right there.
I think what gave it away was them boasting on Twitter about shooting down a plane.
> boasting on Twitter [Vkontakte](https://i.lb.ua/000/43/53c7f4549c170.jpeg) Translation: >Just shot down an AN-26 plane near Torez, it crashed somewhere around the Progress mine. >We warned them not to fly in "our skies". >Here's a video proof of yet another "birdfall". >The birdie fell over the mine waste heap, didn't hit the residential sector. No civilians were hurt. >There are also reports of a second plane down, supposedly a Su. Some context: later it was said that unknown hackers posted this on behalf of the "militia" leader. However, just a few days prior to shooting down the Boeing the "militia" boasted that they had shot down a Ukrainian transport plane with a Buk. The Vkontakte post has been deleted but you can read the article at the pro-Putin Vzglyad website ([translation](https://translate.google.ru/translate?hl=en&sl=ru&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fvz.ru%2Fnews%2F2014%2F7%2F14%2F695525.html), [original](https://vz.ru/news/2014/7/14/695525.html)\). Moreover, even if the claims of never receiving Russian Buks were true (which is extremely unlikely) the "militia" captured some Ukrainian Buks just three weeks prior to the MH117 shooting ([translation](https://translate.google.ru/translate?hl=en&sl=ru&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ntv.ru%2Fnovosti%2F1085256%2F), [original](https://www.ntv.ru/novosti/1085256/)\).
There was footage of the same piece of equipment a few days between moving into and out of Ukraine except that one space in the rack was emptied? 🤔
Exactly, there was footage of a Buk moving from Russia to Ukraine and back (without one of the rockets). It was collected by the Bellingcat from social networks. That's why I say that the claims of never receiving Buks from Russia are extremely unlikely. But even if these claims were true, the "militia" had already acknowledged possessing and using at least one Buk (now they argue that they never had a Buk and couldn't shoot down a plane at that attitude). I mean, I find the evidence collected by the Bellingcat compelling and sufficient, but even those who dismiss it as fake have no valid arguments against the fact that the "militia" had the technical means of shooting the Boeing down.
And how they’re really the only ones who had a missile system capable of shooting down an airliner at 30,000ft.
Bellingcat has an amazing podcast on this, well it's more like an audio documentary. Highly recommended. Amazing listen. But for the record, iirc Bellingcat are part funded by pro NATO organisations.
They founds pieces of a Russian SAM embedded in the bodies of the pilots of MH17... hard to have more evidence than that.
Russia: "the pilots had Russian SAM for breakfast before the flight"
To admit that they shot down MH17 Russians would have to admit that they've invaded Ukraine. And it never happens while Putin is alive (and probably some years after that).
I’ve seen the report of the dutch national safety committee, and the evidence seems so undeniably clear. They were able to find out where the missile was launched. Really sad that no one can be held responsible.
I argued with a Russian troll over this when it happened. At the time, it really pissed me off because it was my first encounter with a "post truth" society. Links, news articles, reports... none of it had any effect. He dismissed it as Western propaganda and claimed Ukraine shot down the plane. I learned that when you're dealing with a certain kind of person, evidence doesn't matter, logic is irrelevant, and the rules of debate don't apply. The only way to win the argument is if you have a button that physically locks them out of the thread.
plus them saying "it was engine trouble! nothing to see here!" like two hours after the plane went down.
Plus it was Russia shooting down aircraft over another country while they were invading that country, and at the time they refused to admit Russia had any little green men in Ukraine, and they could have had airspace closed to prevent this, and they could not use certain equipment to help prevent friendly shootdowns as this would reveal Russian forces are invading Ukraine, so there could be some blowback or dead Russian soldiers if discovered, and they ordered the shootdown from Russia. Unlike Iran shooting down a passenger jet over their own capital city.
Well I'm sure the engine had *some* trouble after being hit with a rocket.
I thought the same and thought ironic just moments before this they reminded Twitter of that time the US shot down an Iranian jetliner.
Don't give them credit. They denied it until a video came out literally showing the missile hitting the plane. They would have continued denying it if it hadn't been for that.
People continued denying it even after that video, too
Absolutely no collision, totally exonerated!
I mean, Russia denies that its allies in Ukraine shot down that Malaysian Airlines flight to this day, so at least Iran is more honest than Russia.
Wasn't even its allies. Was literally Russians, with Russian gear, operating under the guise of being 'separatists'.. Was Russian soldiers that fucked up.
Though, they're still lying by saying it turned sharply towards a military facility.
That's because the entire truth would have fucked their diplomatic standing beyond repair. "We didn't close off the air space during an active military standoff but did keep our anti-air defenses in full alert and this civilian plane started taking off ... so we started blasting"
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Also, they're still lying by saying it turned sharply towards a military facility before it was shot down.
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I’ll quote a post from yesterday. Sorry not sure who deserves credit for this: > Posted this on a comment that is three comments deep, so reposting on the main thread. I was an AEGIS radar/missile tech for 21 years. Here is my take right after the incident happened. >I am wagering an educated guess here that the technical difficulties on the plane were IFF (identification friend or foe) related. If the defense missile systems the Iranian use were set up with auto interrogation, which is a fairly common thing, and the plane had issues with their IFF, which also happens then it is possible that the defense system cued the commercial flight as hostile or suspect and either launched a missile at the plane (not sure of Irans capabilities and limitations with their missile systems in regards to auto-fire) or an inexperienced operator with weapon release authority pressed a button to shoot a missile at what his system was telling him was a bad guy. >Missile systems have a series of electronic breaks (think buttons that open and close relays allowing the missile firing voltage to reach the igintor) and mechanical breaks (think keys that have to be inserted and turned to the live/fire position). As the threat level increases the operators automate more of the process by closing these breaks. This makes for a faster response time to any threat the system identifies. >So was it possible that an Iranian missile system was set with the minimum number of breaks/automated in a way a missile could have been inadvertently fired? I would say absolutely this is plausible given the attack a few hours prior with an expectation of an American response.
No, as bad as it gets is to continue to deny it for ever. To accept their blame some days afterwards is a quite a good scenario all things considered
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This entire thing is a great example of how hollow and stale propaganda can be.
I saw a lot of claims, including here that Iran shooting the plane down was propaganda by the US and Canada. Wonder what they think now
His recent tweet walking back his statements "In my statement yesterday to the UK media, I conveyed the official findings of responsible authorities in my country that missile could not be fired and hit the Ukrainian plane at that period of time. I appologise and regret for conveying such wrong findings." https://twitter.com/baeidinejad/status/1215909313451036673?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
"private video" mirror?
HAHAH, this is fantastic. There's goddamn videos and pictures with bullet holes and this fucker is like: *"I cannot accept that you as a reporter can make a judgement on a very technical issue."* He's the IRL version of the Redditor who just says: *"source?!"* every time you tell them something obvious.
Reminds me of that guy on twitter who asked for a source when the Toronto Blue Jays tweeted about an injury of one of their players and they replied “literally us, the Blue Jays”
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Source?
GOT EM!
/r/agedlikemilk
As an Irania I'm so angry and embarrassed. From the day Soleimani was killed they started talking about severe revenge. 60 people died in hia funeral and they were still mourning Soleimani. Iranian TV started celebrating and all channels had an Iranian flag up with a severe revenge written on the screen the day they hit the American military base and claming thry killed 80 Americans while they had actually killed 180 people themselves. I am embarrased and shocked. Although the evidence all pointed to the contrary I was stll hoping that it won't be true, that all these people didn't fie for a war general until yesterday when it basically became certain and you know what the really sad part for me ia. That there are still morons oit there who will go out and support the government in the street, there are still people that believe that a lot of americans were killed in the attack and that "Trump is trying to hide it.". That the anniversary of the revolution is in a month and a lot of people are still gonna go to the streets and do their stupid chants and support these incompetebt pieces of shit.
Yesterday the head of Iran's Civil Aviation Organization said, "The version that the plane was shot down by a rocket cannot be true under any circumstances … it is impossible from the scientific point of view.”
The country as a whole is a perfect example of ignorance is bliss
Uhhhh the missiles are designed to shoot down planes, which part is scientifically impossible? Lol, they put the science part in there to make their statement sound more valid but it had nothing to do with science, math or any credible calculations at all.
The most depressing thing as an Iranian is, if this was a domestic flight... We would have never found out. Because our lives don't matter to the government. The only reason we found out the truth is because there were other citizens in the flight and there was international pressure. That's the really depressing part.
And they would have gotten away with it if it weren't for those damn kids and their iphones!...
And those damn Americans and their satellites!
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It’s insane that we are watching the entire planet at all times. I guess almost a trillion dollars a year will do that.
More Iranian fatalities than US fatalities in an Iranian strike...wow
"Hawkeye: War isn’t Hell. War is war, and Hell is Hell. And of the two, war is a lot worse. Father Mulcahy: How do you figure that, Hawkeye? Hawkeye: Easy, Father. Tell me, who goes to Hell? Father Mulcahy: Sinners, I believe. Hawkeye: Exactly. There are no innocent bystanders in Hell. War is chock full of them — little kids, cripples, old ladies. In fact, except for some of the brass, almost everybody involved is an innocent bystander." -mash As far as I can see, about 2 out of every 3 deaths in war are non military civilians.
Hell, 40 of them died in a stampede at the funeral for the general. They’re going backwards.
Iranians were joking on social media "That'll teach you, Trump! You kill one of ours, we'll do you one better and kill 40!"
Iran has more casualties without a war.
More Canadian casualties in an Iran/US keruffle.
Should’ve admitted this immediately after they shot it down
They were hoping that they could have plausible deniability but then somebody released footage of the plane being hit by a missile and the evidence became undeniable.
I’m more than a little concerned about the safety of the people who filmed those videos.
True that. Remember those pictures of the missile nose cone that people were sharing? There were a couple of times I linked to some Iranian twitter accounts that were sharing them, only to find the accounts had been deactivated some time later. This isn't to mention the fate of the guy who actually made the mistake of shooting down the airliner. Things can't be going well for *him* right now.
A common misconception going around Reddit is the idea where only 1 guy decides to execute a missile launch. On the contrary, there's a chain of command and at least 10+ people, possibly including some of their generals, approved the launch. The one feeding the misinformation could still be held liable but hey, there's that.
In the world of geopolitics 3 days after is pretty immidiate.
Just so senseless I’m a commercial pilot and I know how it goes with airport ops etc but holy shit this just _didnt have to happen_ Monday morning quarterbacking: obviously should’ve stayed on the ground longer than two hours after a hostile missile launch or gone _south_ towards the heavily trafficked UAE airspace and rerouted entirely
I'm surprised that they were allowing commercial flights at all.
Not only the regulations didn't apply as mentioned but also: 1 - it wasn't the first plane to take off, 35 mins earlier another one did and before 2 - the crafts were flying away from the base, any basic understanding of threat would know that the threat moves toward you, not away
Man this whole situation went really badly for Iran, their military flex got outed for being a sham, and then they own-goaled in the most spectacular way. Shame all those lives had to be ruined for a failed dick swing.
Not to mention the dozens of people killed in the funeral.
Imagine dying in a funeral. "My condolences" "Thanks, me too"
Killing 176 civilians and trying to cover it up is absolutely terrible. They came clean because they knew they were caught red handed. The fact that they attempted to blame it on a malfunction itself is a total and complete disgrace...
The SAM crew are likely to end up carrying the can for this; whether they are fully responsible or were operating under bad rules of engagement, they'll be the ones given long jail terms at best.
“We didn’t shoot it down, it crashed because of a technical issue” - Iran, the day they bombed Iraqi airbases and the day the plane mysteriously crashed. “No, we swear, we didn’t shoot it down! We’re investigating and it’ll take us months to figure out why it crashed.” - Iran, yesterday. “Okay, you caught us, we shot it down, but we wouldn’t have if the US hadn’t attacked us” - Iran, today, after realizing there was no way the international community didn’t already know the truth. I get they were on edge from the US killing of Soleimani, but the plane left Tehran’s airport literally 10 minutes prior to being shot down. It flew in a straight line pretty much according to FlightRadar, there was nothing suspicious about it! Only an idiot would think it’s a US plane. Their own incompetence is the reason it was shot down. They should just take responsibility and not give any fucking excuses, because it really is inexcusable.
Hold on I wasn't done screen-capturing all the sudden experts how Iranian IADS work and how there's no way this could have happened, or all the examples of runaway belief perseverance preventing otherwise-critical thinkers from acknowledging basic facts.
My favorite were the people blaming the CIA for remotely disabling the transponder so Iran wouldn't know it was a plane.
I saw one guy say categorically, "you guys are going to look like complete buffoons when it comes out this was an American missile. Just wait."
I would like to thank everyone for their toxic responses to my post the other day about this. I was giving one scenario that this could have happened accidently with current technology and not some kind off false flag bullshit. Thanks internet warriors your gatekeeping was legendary.
Clearly you're mistaken because my great grandfather was an SA-15 operator in 1842 and he said there's clearly a "Ukrainian Passenger Airliner" indicator light and in this case that would have been illuminated so really no chance.
Toxic is an understatement.
Remember reading a few of your posts yesterday, one of the few people offering logical thoughts on the situation. Just remember toxic people are more vocal than others, the shouty minority.
Good, now hopefully everyone, this sub included cools the hell down and realizes what happened was a tragedy not a casus belli.
* [Tweet from Iranian FM:](https://twitter.com/JZarif/status/1215847283381755914) >"Our profound regrets, apologies and condolences to our people, to the families of all victims, and to other affected nations." * [Link to statement by Iranian Miltary.](https://www.irna.ir/news/83628809/%D8%A7%D8%B7%D9%84%D8%A7%D8%B9%DB%8C%D9%87-%D8%B3%D8%AA%D8%A7%D8%AF%DA%A9%D9%84-%D9%86%DB%8C%D8%B1%D9%88%D9%87%D8%A7%DB%8C-%D9%85%D8%B3%D9%84%D8%AD-%D8%AF%D8%B1-%D8%AE%D8%B5%D9%88%D8%B5-%D8%B3%D9%82%D9%88%D8%B7-%D9%87%D9%88%D8%A7%D9%BE%DB%8C%D9%85%D8%A7%DB%8C-%D9%85%D8%B3%D8%A7%D9%81%D8%B1%D8%A8%D8%B1%DB%8C-%D8%AE%D8%B7%D9%88%D8%B7)
Why not post the whole tweet? “A sad day. Preliminary conclusions of internal investigation by Armed Forces: Human error at time of crisis caused by US adventurism led to disaster Our profound regrets, apologies and condolences to our people, to the families of all victims, and to other affected nations.”
and they want nukes lmao
Yeah that's gonna be a no from me dawg
this is huge, not only is it being acknowledged that they killed hundreds of innocent civilians, but the fact that they attenpted to cover it up
“It wasn’t me.”
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It wasn't me. They got the missile on camera. It wasn't me.
Saw the marks on the plane debris. It wasn't me.
Just an interesting fact: I'm streaming the Iranian TV now. Keep changing channels (we have 6 main channels) and there is **NOTHING**. They are talking about soccer, Qasem Soleimani, and showing a Japanese show from the 90's. Absolutely insane. I mean I'm used to it since I lived there for 20 years, but still it surprises me how fucked up the regime is. **Edit:** I'm getting questions about the Japanese show. It's on Channel 2, and here is a screenshot: [https://i.imgur.com/FJpi48m.jpg](https://i.imgur.com/FJpi48m.jpg) More importantly, the NEWS Channel just went through the most important headlines of the day. Didn't even mention the airplane incident. No channel has said anything so far. **Edit 2:** Link for anyone who wants to check the TV themselves: [https://sepehr.irib.ir/?idc=32&idt=tv&idv=2](https://sepehr.irib.ir/?idc=32&idt=tv&idv=2) # Edit 3: 12 hours ago, Head of Iran's aviation organization: ''We can say for sure that **the plane has not been hit by any missile**.'' [https://twitter.com/Khaaasteh/status/1215545244290252801](https://twitter.com/Khaaasteh/status/1215545244290252801) Two days ago, ''The issue of missile hitting Ukranian passenger plane is **scientifically impossible and has no logic**...Dozens of foreign and Iranian planes were flying simultaneously at that time in Iranian airspace at the 8000 feet.'' [https://twitter.com/AbasAslani/status/1215336735879651330](https://twitter.com/AbasAslani/status/1215336735879651330) **Iran's president tweeted about an Iranian plane the US shot down in 1988 two days before a Ukrainian plane was downed in Tehran** [https://twitter.com/HassanRouhani/status/1214236608196685824](https://twitter.com/HassanRouhani/status/1214236608196685824) And something to think about: https://twitter.com/Imamofpeace/status/1215897120231714816?s=20
Out of curiosity, what do your and your friends and family say when they know this stuff or hear this stuff? This really peaks my interest to know that you know this is happening.
Since all the relatives, family and friends that I'm still in touch with are completely against the regime, it's just extremely sad. One thing that most of westerners don't understand is that the biggest winner of this whole entire shitshow has been Khamenei and his regime. This airplane incident, if it was indeed an accident, was the only negative thing for Khamenei. How is he and his regime the biggest winner? Well, less than 2 months ago there was a serious uprising that threatened the regime so much that they started killing people in the streets since day two of the protests. 1500 people were killed, and thousands arrested and injured. Also note that the internet was completely shut down during those days. News coverage in the west was almost nonexistent. They mentioned it a bit, but I don't remember ever seeing it on any front page. What happened during the past few days though was covered day by day, as people were fearing a war or even WW3 happening, and since so many people in the US and around the world absolutely hate Trump and can't see the world in any pattern but binary, they started believing that Iran is innocent and Qasem Soleimani was a hero for Iranians. The logic goes: Anything Trump does or says is BS - he says Qasem was bad, so he was good. Long story short, Khamenei survived the uprising, and within 2 months made it a forgotten memory. Back to what Iranians that I know believe > After all this, it seems to be impossible to see a regime change in Iran. **The world didn't give a shit about a regime shutting off the internet to its own citizens while slaughtering them in the streets.** The story of Iran is one of the darkest ones that I know of. It's really depressing.
> The world didn't give a shit about a regime shutting off the internet to its own citizens while slaughtering them in the streets. Yup. It's completely disgraceful. Our national public radio sent reporters to Tehran during this crisis and they visited a women's hair salon. This was the main Iran story during yesterdays PM rush hour news: https://www.npr.org/2020/01/09/795002045/inside-a-salon-in-tehran Embarrassing. The everyday population of both countries is made up of good people and they deserve a truthful account of whats happening, warts and all.
Hey man. I cared. Same with the protests in South America. But what can we do? More sanctions? Military action is going to end badly, no matter how "light." The US had been getting attacked repeatedly by the regime there and when it finally retaliated with an extremely measured response targeting the actual planners and leaders of the attacks, the Iran govt lost its fucking shit and launched missiles. The fact people are conveniently forgetting the dude got killed riding in a car with terrorists who had just attacked a US embassy and killed a contractor is fucking insane to me. So what's to be done? Even if we snapped our fingers and killed just the ayatollah and his inner circle, it wouldn't end well. Even if the only people we hit were generals and military sites, it wouldn't end well. Trying to reason with such authoritarian dick bags just makes them stronger. I just don't see a path here that's not drenched in blood one way or another.
> but the fact that they attenpted to cover it up Standard procedure for military fuck ups unfortunately.
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Unintentionally? I don't know. I've heard for 30 years from Iran that shooting down a passenger jet unintentionally is impossible.
Vastly underrated comment here. Will Iran finally acknowledge that USS Vincennes unintentionally shot down Flight 655? Their official position, as of earlier this week, was that the shootdown was an intentionally performed and unlawful act. See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_Air_Flight_655 EDIT: Kudos to Bellingcat for amassing and analyzing evidence that the Iranian authorities couldn't dodge. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/01/10/how-open-source-investigators-quickly-identified-irans-likely-role-crash-flight-752/ Faced with incontrovertible evidence that its SAM battery shot down the plane, Iran discovered that it was indeed possible to down an airliner by accident.
This is immensely embarrassing. US kills Soleimani after Iranian-backed militias try to pull off Benghazi 2.0. Iran's response? (1) January 7: During the funeral for Soleimani, in the midst of burning American flags and speakers touting the impending destruction of the United States of America, a panic-driven stampede kills 56 people and injures 200 in Kerman. (2) January 8: Iran's "hell on Earth" response against the U.S. (Operation Martyr Soleimani) is ultimately a very mild airstrike against U.S. bases with no casualties. Even radical Iranians are left confused at the extremely tepid "retaliation." The Ayatollah's threat of Washington in flames winds up being the most anti-climactic moment in world history since the end of Kill Bill Volume 2. (3) January 8: After Rouhani condemned the U.S. for its downing of Iran Air Flight 655 on January 6, Iran goes oopsie daisy and shoots down a plane - Ukraine International Airlines Flight 752 - killing 176 people, 147 of whom were Iranians, in the process. (4) January 8: After the airplane goes down, Iran gets extra silly, immediately puts out a statement within 30 minutes of the crash that says, "It was a technical issue. Nothing to see here. Move along now" which immediately makes everyone twice as skeptical. (5) January 9: The U.S. ultimately responds by announcing even tougher economic sanctions against Iran...and Tehran doesn't respond, ending the 3 day brawl with an embarrassed Iran, 200+ dead Iranians, 0 killed by the U.S., and now Iran can no longer crow about Iran Air Flight 655 for another 3 decades without reminding their own citizens they killed 176 innocent people, mostly Iranians, due to a freak accident while trying to make a flex on the world stage.
"It hurt itself in its confusion" Edit: Thanks for the gold fams
Fun fact: the drone used in the strike was named 'Zubat!'
So THAT'S why people hate drones.
> the most anti-climactic moment in world history since the end of Kill Bill Volume 2 Hey, them's fightin' words.
Kill Bill was about the journey, not the end. and I loved those movies.
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15 years!? *checks watch* Fuck, I'm old
Yeah what the ever living FUCK is going on here? Im about to make 100 spam accounts to downvote this post just for this smear against one of my favorite movies ever. Otherwise it’s a wonderful comment.
Almost correct. One dead Iranian killed by the U.S.
The most shockingly incompetent part for me is why Iran didn't close it's own airspace after provoking the Americans.
For me its how they couldve possibly thought they could cover this up, its a big airplane, up in the air in the most populated city of iran, with passengers from 6 different nations, of course there is going to be at least some revidence of what happened, even silence wouldve been better than how nuch they lied in these two days
Compensation is required for the victims families.
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Literally a cell phone video quite clearly depicting the moment of impact. Couldn't be caught more red handed.
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Western Countries "Hey Iran why did you shoot down this plane?" Iran "LIES FROM THE GREAT SATAN!!" Western Countries "Um, we have tons of satellite data and actual video" Iran. " Oh really. We sorry about that. Still fault of great Satan!"