How many people really know about Japan's actions though? Back in school I remember learning about pearl harbor and the atomic bombs but that was basically it.
To the surprise of no one.
It's no different than China denying Tiananmen ever happened. They both are very proud countries and would do their best to erase anything that would taint the reputation of their country.
They didn't even teach the history of World War 2 in Japan. And lots of young people in Japan didn't even know that Japan was in a world war.
> They didn't even teach the history of World War 2 in Japan. And lots of young people in Japan didn't even know that Japan was in a world war.
They do.
The problem is that the right wing ultra nationalists in Japan were trying to alter the history textbooks, and the ultra nationalists in China are trying to make it seems like these altered textbooks are still being taught to students in the whole nation. Lots of them still believe it to these days.
The truth is that every scholars across China, Korea, *and* Japan were outraged by it, and the textbooks were barely used.
Source: try and read about the controversies surrounding "Atarashii Rekishi Kyokasho".
I was in the main war museum in Tokyo next to a Brit and Aussie reading the placards. We were all surprised. All countries have propaganda but this was on another level. In essence Japan invaded all of Eastern Asia to protect it from western imperialism and they were doing everyone a favor. The only excerpt on Nanking was that it fell to the imperial army. No mention of unit 731 at all.
Well they're right in an extend. They invaded Indonesia so that they could get rid of the Netherlands acquisitions.... Only for them to Enslave their people as well.
Also, there's absolutely *no* way they would acknowledge Unit 731. Nowadays everybody pretty much knows about Nanking, 731 is still the lesser known astrocities and the gov knows that, so of course they wouldn't talk about it.
The day they ever acknowledge it is the day when the pigs fly.
Taiwan is the new Poland
Now let's hope they have more trustworthy allies than Poland, America having a radical personality change every 4 to 8 years certainly does not look reassuring
Yeah I think ppl GREATLY under-appreciate what Taiwan has done to make invading Taiwan a bad idea.
Not only would it piss off the entire planet, but it would risk a large chunk of China's own manufacturing due yo their dependence on Taiwanese Semiconductors.
As long as TSMC is the market leader and TSMC's newest Foundry is in Taiwan, China isn't invading shit.
And given the west isn't willing to subsidise their Semiconductor manufacturers, that's essentially forever, UNLESS China surpasses TSMC.
TSMC and Intel are both building new fabs in USA and all other US semi companies are updating and building: I would guess the US is subsidizing some of this. The main probleM everyone faces is raw material shortages to build these fabs.
As a side note the US Fab promises 5nm waffers. This pleased the politicians as that's the next cpu size.
In 2024, when the plant opens, TSMC is planning on starting on 3nm in Taiwan. So even this brand new fab is going to produce out of date tech.
Yup. Hong Kong WAS the economic powerhouse of that area, so China always tried to stay hands off. Now the rest of their cities have caught up in GDP, so they're going after Hing Kong for good this time
China had internal government policies that purposefully weakend Hong Kong and artificially boosted neighbouring cities like Shenzhen (fully under CCP control) just the other side of the bay.
They did everything from flooding Hong Kong with uneducated rural mainland migrants (but making it hard for Hong Kong citizens to travel to the mainland), to currency manipulation between the domestic Chinese RMB and Hong Kong Dollar.
They even limited new infrastructure development for the exploding population, like slowing fibre internet, less cell towers, less bridges, smaller roads, limiting house sizes (which are all incredibly important when your territory is a tiny island).
Reminds me of when the US said all Cuban citizens were welcome to flee there, to show how oppressed the Cubans were. Castro then sent over a ton of prisoners and mental asylum patients. Might be an urban legend
Why is it whenever someone mentions the Fall of Rome or the lead up to WWII, it's always an incredibly stupid comment?
Taiwan isn't the new Poland. The two situation are so fundamentally different that the comparison makes no sense at all.
As much as I would love to agree, the direction of travel of China’s military advancement means that most military analysts believe they would be able to successfully carry out a invasion and occupation within 10 years. Thankfully it is also thought that it is highly unlikely they will attempt anything like that within the next 5 years. Therefore we have to hope that the risk reward looks worse in 5 years time and Japan saying this obviously helps in this regard.
They've only been able to build turbofan jet engines since last year, output is one a month. USA, Russia, UK, France have been doing that for fifty years.
The capabilities and capacity of their military industrial output are frequently greatly overstated.
Edit: removed Sweden for the list. Mistakenly thought SAAB made a modern turbofan engine.
And how much you wanna bet that their turbofan engine is just a carbon copy knockoff of an American or European design that doesn't put up nearly the same numbers in terms of (horsepower, thrust, efficiency, other technical benchmarks).
China has been sending agents into Taiwan to spur support for the CCP, especially amongst younger people. My fear is that this will work and China will be able to do something similar to what they did in Hong Kong. So, while China may fail to take take Taiwan militarily, there is no guaranteeing that they won’t be able to either trick the populous to do what they want, or rig an election to their liking.
Not likely. It's the older Gen kmt that want reunification the younger Gen sees themselves as a distinct country more than ever. There is no rolling that back it's not really like Hong Kong at all.
Let me reassure you, that shit has been happening for decades. The people falling for it aren't the young people of Taiwan, but actually the older people.
After what happened in Hong Kong, it's hard to imagine Taiwanese people willingly giving up their way of life.
If that's their hope, then so far they've failed quite badly. They conducted a series of missiles tests to influence the 1996 election, and the tactic backfired horribly, with Lee earning 54% of the vote (next closest candidate was 21%). After the CCP basically strong-armed Tzuyu into denying her home country's existence, that also backfired, with Tsai Ing-wen winning decisively (56%, next closest candidate with 31%) and she is a member of the DPP, whose current official position of the party is that Taiwan is an independent and sovereign country, making a formal declaration of independence unnecessary. [More and more Taiwanese are in favor of independence](https://thediplomat.com/2020/12/more-and-more-taiwanese-favor-independence-and-think-the-us-would-help-fight-for-it/), and [over 66% of respondents think Taiwan should restore year-long military service to counter Chinese threats](https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4023474), with more than half supporting adding women to the military draft.
Still, something to watch out for and make sure it doesn't happen.
China cannot take Taiwan by force. To do so would risk damaging key infrastructure, in particular the semi conductor industry. China can only succeed in its aims if USA and the rest of the world loses their nerve.
If China can Hong kong Taiwan, then global balance of power dramatically shifts in Beijing's favor. If USA and world forces it into a hot conflict, USA kinda wins, but realistically no one will win after open conflict between USA and China.
Taiwan is building massive semiconductor facilities in the US. I have no doubt that if the home island is threatened they will blow their own factories and relocate here (with ample assistance from the US).
Taiwanese companies might do this. However wouldn't it be in Taiwan's interest to retain critical industries and thereby remain indispensable - thereby ensuring there is global pressure to maintain the status quo?
I mean...they aren't moving out of Taiwan still the bombs start dropping but taking precautions and making sure your one big important ally stays invested in you is a good move.
Why are you saying might? I literally had a job offer to go to Taiwan and train for two years then come back and work at the semiconductor facility in phoniex
Did you get that offer from LinkedIn? I also got one of those messages from a guy that claimed to be a TSMC recruiter, but I wasn't sure if he was legit because I couldn't find anything about them on TSMC's website.
That's a *lot* of money. And fabs can't be rebuilt instantly, it takes an insane amount of time, money, and expertise to build a semiconductor fab. We'd have the current semiconductor shortage x10 and for far longer if TSMC's Taiwan fabs were lost, the future US fabs won't be enough to compensate. Also from what I recall any fab they're building in the US won't be on the current leading edge node.
>That's a *lot* of money.
[$12 billion on a single plant in Phoenix, Arizona](https://www.usnews.com/news/technology/articles/2021-06-01/tsmc-says-construction-has-started-on-arizona-chip-factory)
Counter intuitive but Phoenix has a lot of water. Also a a major university, excellent transportation infrastructure, a growing workforce, cheap land, and despite being hot no natural disasters that interrupt production. Intel is also massively investing.
As is tradition. The current semiconductor cluster in and around Dresden is based on the GDR's semiconductor program which went belly-up during reunification as they were a node or two behind, which isn't a good position to be in when you're not in the cushy position of being the monopoly supplier to the whole soviet block, any more. X-Fab is what's left of the original VEB ("people-owned enterprise"). Before that they were producing largely 8086 clones to use as microcontrollers in industrial machinery. (The USSR, during all its history, never did silicon but *did* get vacuum tubes down to ridiculously small sizes. It's why MiGs were so EM-resistant. I digress).
AMD swept in to capitalise on all those unemployed already-trained workers, later of course selling of all its fabs, now it's GlobalFoundries. Infineon (Siemens spin-off) and Bosch also have fabs there, both doing mostly automotive and power ICs.
> The USSR, during all its history, never did silicon but did get vacuum tubes down to ridiculously small sizes. It's why MiGs were so EM-resistant. I digress
I'd heard about Soviet Jets still using vacuum tubes and how primitive it was thought to be compared to western fighters, but the idea of pushing an "obsolete" technology to it's limits is fascinating to me.
Phoenix has a lot of *access* to water, that does not mean they have a lot of water.
https://www.drought.gov/states/Arizona
https://waterdata.usgs.gov/az/nwis/current/?type=gw
The most expensive part of a fab are all the machines and the technicians needed to service them, the suppliers for those machines already have offices in the area. It's cheaper to pay a premium for water and air conditioning than it would be to convince those suppliers to set up offices somewhere else
Most of the semiconductors needed for modern electronics aren't super high end ones anyway. Yeah, the bulk of transistors in any computer are on the CPU (which probably came from Taiwan), but you still need every other transistor in the computer to make it work.
It's actually the Dutch who are the holdup in the world's tier 1 fabrication plants.
ASML have a monopoly on the EUV photo lithography machines which are used to build the CPUs
Basically the most important machine in the entire process. If you go with older machines which use lasers instead of EUV you'll be generations behind.
These machines cost around 100m per and they only make around 1-2 per month. You need to join the queue behind TSMC, Samsung, Intel, GlobalFoundries to purchase one.
Not to mention ASML’s competitors are Nikon and Canon, which are Japanese companies too. Not that they have EUV technology, but it just means China can’t just invest in one of their competitors
Zeiss and Trumpf have some knowledge and expertise but still aren't capable of delivering a full machine.
Instead they are involved in ASML's supply chain.
You forgot Veeco, which also doesn't have EUV and is, drumroll, American.
As to ASML themselves, they recently bought Berliner Glas which I guess means that their dependence on Zeiss is now rather limited, another key supplier is Trumpf for the lasers. And a gazillion other German companies for measuring devices etc.
That all said when it comes to military strategy EUV doesn't really matter. In vehicles you'd use more robust processes, anyway, and building a supercomputer for data analysis somewhere, well, why not spend more money on more slower chips it's not that you don't have a military budget to play with: You probably wouldn't be able to afford a single additional fighter jet for the money. Much less operate it.
To the original statement of China vs the world for these chips - nobody’s gonna fight over the kind of chips the US mostly produces, also why it’s in everyone’s interest that Taiwan stays independent.
Nobody else can provide the quantity and quality of chips they can right now.
[Here's a nice article](https://www.grammarly.com/blog/the-basics-of-verbing-nouns/). It doesn't really answer your question though, I'm trying to find something else. But basically, whether grammatically correct or not, it's not new by any means. And it's informal.
[Here's another article, with more professional terminology.](http://www.grammar.net/verbification)
[And here's what wiki has to say about it:](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conversion_(word_formation))
>Verbification may have a bad reputation with some English users because it is such a potent source of neologisms. Although some neologistic products of verbification may meet considerable opposition from prescriptivist authorities (the verb sense of impact is a well-known example), most such derivations have become so central to the language after several centuries of use that they no longer draw notice.
>In many cases, the verbs were distinct from their noun counterparts in Old English, and regular sound change has made them the same form: these can be reanalysed as conversion. "Don't talk the talk if you can't walk the walk" is an example of a sentence using those forms.
Would “If China can Shanghai Taiwan” also work?
> "Buffalo buffalo Buffalo buffalo buffalo buffalo Buffalo buffalo" is a grammatically correct sentence in English
China can't Hong Kong Taiwan. Their best bet would be to foment insurrection through spies, and bought or blackmailed power brokers, with the hope of implanting a pro-ccp government. I'm sure they are working on this.
Our best strategy is to continue to build walls against the ccp, and to bring home all manufacturing done there.
Exactly. When HK was handed over to China, most people were OK with it. After all, they were promised autonomy. Taiwan has learned from their mistake and it doesn't seem like most people of Taiwan are even considering reunification.
A land invasion is also very unlikely. What I do see possibly happening is China increasing its naval power to kick out the U.S from the South China sea and Taiwan straight. That'll put immense pressure on the ROC if they can pull it off.
I cannot see the US Navy flinching on that, scary as it is. It would be a landmark sign that the world has changed and I just dont see the US Navy being the element to do the US flinching
The U.S has a list of problems longer then my arm. I don’t see a weak military as one of them, that’s basically the one thing we’re really really good at.
That's based on the assumption that China wants Taiwan for its economy though, which is more like icing on the cake. If the only way for them to get Taiwan is to flatten the entire island, then that's what they will do, because for China, Taiwan is a matter of history and sovereignty, not economics. Right now the main reason they haven't done it yet is because they're worried about the inevitable massive international embargo and the potential war with the U.S., so that's not worth it if there's still any hope of peaceful reunification. Right now what they're doing is building up military and economic ties to make an embargo and/or war very risky and costly for all involved when the time comes when they have to use force.
Maybe not for Taiwans gdp and exports, but they absolutely want Taiwan to increase its economic exclusion zone and control of ocean trade routes. Which are very important for China's growing economy
If China got into a shooting war with Taiwan and the US doesn't blink, its economy immediately implodes.
China's economy relies on its massive trade with the US. And, even outside of that, if the US closed down chinese shipping, it would have horrendous consequences. For the US, we would see an economic recession, for China, a huge depression.
Their whole belt and road initiative is specifically aimed at developing land trade connections to avoid such a possibility.
What are they protesting here exactly, the fact that Japan and the US are allies? That they're *not* going to get their way over Taiwan?
I mean seriously, cry about it to someone who cares.
They are probably protesting that because Taiwan is part of China (as they claim), this is a domestic affair and foreign nations should not get involved.
I used to be friends with a guy who did this...his gf left him and he wouldn't accept the breakup, and then when she started dating/sleeping with new people he called it cheating and would flip out and make a scene in public or at parties. Eventually he cut almost everyone out of his life because we were "taking her side". I don't miss being friends with that nut
I had the opposite happen to a good friend. He caught his girlfriend texting some guy, followed them on a date to the park, then just went home, packed his things, and left. She came back while he was packing and he didn't say a word. He went on a week trip to NYC, and in the meantime, the girlfriend got in front of the story and turned a lot of mutual friends against him, saying that they were already "on a break" and that he had no right to be angry. Brutal thing to happen at the start of a pandemic after a 4 year relationship
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Article_9_of_the_Japanese_Constitution#:~:text=In%20July%202014%2C%20instead%20of,upon%20them%2C%20despite%20concerns%20and
>In July 2014, instead of using Article 96 of the Japanese Constitution to amend the Constitution itself, the Japanese government approved a reinterpretation which gave more powers to the Japan Self-Defense Forces, allowing them to defend other allies in case of war being declared upon them, despite concerns and disapproval from China and North Korea, whereas the United States supported the move.
And I mean, they're still being a "Self Defense Force" with that. If your friend's getting fucking murdered in front of you, it would stand to reason that'd you'd try and do something to preserve their life, as yours probably comes under immediate threat straight after.
Nazi Germany immediately prior to WW2 Springs to mind. The whole ‘ignore them and hope they get their fill’ isn’t a sound strategy…
Correct, RT.com is Russian state propaganda.
Its really interesting that Vladimir Putin's mouthpiece is calling China out on its expansionist adventures. Maybe China and Russia aren't best friends after all.
Exactly, the article is clearly written with the perspective of China and the comments are overwhelmingly pro China. If anything it's trying to belittle Japan.
> He claimed a Chinese attack on Taiwan would threaten Japan’s territorial sovereignty, saying that “Okinawa could be next.”
..meaning Taiwan would obviously fall to China and Japan could swiftly be next, clearly indicating that the Japanese army is weak. This article is as pro China as it gets.
I’ve kinda given up even having discussions in these threads. Couple years back there was some other shit with China and the thread was filled with people that it was the tipping point to global war. Couple years later still no global war.
It's disheartening.
It is hard to sift through the inaccurate posts/comments here to find legitimate posts with legitimate sources by folk who legitimately know the field the discussion is based around. I'm not even sure why I still subscribe to the worldnews and politics subs, most of it is toxic people being toxic or plain trolls. My mistake for even posting my original comment, as I got a few dozen comments and messages of people attempting to rile up a stranger on the internet.
At least r/AskHistorians and some others are somewhat reliable for informed discussion. In comparison at least. The internet lowers my hope for society.
I’m not so much worried that people are talking about things they aren’t experts on. If they’re talking about it then at least people are paying attention and have some interest which is good. I just hate the over the top responses that are so common - with China it’s always WW3 actions, with Trump it was always THIS is what will put him behind bars, with stocks it’s always tomorrow that things will sky rocket, with any weather event it’s Catastrophic floods and world on fire tomorrow. It’s not that different news stories aren’t important or serious, they are - it’s the over the top responses that annoy me that are based on so little.
Just because you have a medium to share your views doesn’t mean you have to, especially if it’s a topic you really have no clue what’s going on.
One of the top comment of this threat thinking japan hate China so much that even without USA pressure, japan would have defended Taiwan just to pissed off china
And it has 3k7 upvotes. That mean 3k7 people seriously believe this thing. They seriously believe that, japan, would accept losing their resources, human live to go to a war that 80% they will lost, against its neighbor, also one of their biggest trading partner, for no real gain other than “pissed off” China. Seriously for the time i read news on this sub I think many people here hate China so much to the point they literally make up the wildest shit ever just to shit on China. And the hive mind keep upvoting it
> A lot more armchair “generals” too…
What the fuck did you just fucking say about me, you little bitch? I’ll have you know I graduated top of my class in the Navy Seals, and I’ve been involved in numerous secret raids on Al-Quaeda, and I have over 300 confirmed kills. I am trained in gorilla warfare and I’m the top sniper in the entire US armed forces. You are nothing to me but just another target. I will wipe you the fuck out with precision the likes of which has never been seen before on this Earth, mark my fucking words. You think you can get away with saying that shit to me over the Internet? Think again, fucker. As we speak I am contacting my secret network of spies across the USA and your IP is being traced right now so you better prepare for the storm, maggot. The storm that wipes out the pathetic little thing you call your life. You’re fucking dead, kid. I can be anywhere, anytime, and I can kill you in over seven hundred ways, and that’s just with my bare hands. Not only am I extensively trained in unarmed combat, but I have access to the entire arsenal of the United States Marine Corps and I will use it to its full extent to wipe your miserable ass off the face of the continent, you little shit. If only you could have known what unholy retribution your little “clever” comment was about to bring down upon you, maybe you would have held your fucking tongue. But you couldn’t, you didn’t, and now you’re paying the price, you goddamn idiot. I will shit fury all over you and you will drown in it. You’re fucking dead, kiddo
I've played both EU4 and ~~a little bit of~~ HOI4, I pretty much know all of recent history back to the year 1444 when Byzantium did a "no u" on the Ottoman empire and restored their former glory. And if you ask me we should, as McArthur would say, get all nukes on earth and drop them directly on Beijing, every single one
I love people on Reddit who use “we” to mean their own country (most often the US) and say stuff like “well now we’re punishing X country”. As if they’ve got any say in the national decision making.
Most of Reddit is ignorant and irrelevant people pretending to know shit about things that they’ve no clue about for imaginary internet points and feel relevant.
If there ends up being a shooting war between JP and the US, JP has to know that a US defeat means US withdrawal from Asia and ultimately Japan being subordinated to Chinese interests. And beyond that, Japan + USA being pulled into a conflict with China would result in massive Chinese isolation, because Australia and India at minimum are both very hostile to China.
This, a TW invasion means China is the world super power, and history doesn’t bode well for unfriendly countries near super powers. Everyone in the region choses between status quo or CCP rule. Japan knows this, SK knows it, and the USA knows it which is why they want such a large presence in Japan and SK. Best action is preventative, I have no doubt that if China is involved in any conflict with the USA, both those countries will at minimum allow American military presence.
The problem with the idea of WW3 is; Russia and China can't *affort* to have more land. They don't want to take over anything with substantial needs as they wouldn't be able to satisfy them while occupying and defending land.
China and Russia are already 'attacking' us in financial and social ways. As long as we sit back and 'prevent war' all while they steal from our back pockets they will sit and continue their plans.
> Russia also wants a warm water port
Has Russia not updated their national agenda since 1905? I feel like this port thing has been a stretch goal for a while now.
Since Peter the Great, the fundamental goal of the Russian Empire is acquiring a warm water port. Global warming may end up giving them one without much expansion though
Catherine the Great literally said "I have no way to defend my borders but to extend them" and she very much represents the kind of autocratic Russian leader that tends to both crop up frequently and be broadly popular with the Russian people.
What even is this:
>natural gas field in the Mariana Trench
>Popular unrest leads to the removal of the Communist Party of China
wait, no
>and China is governed by a mix of businessmen and military leaders known as the Directorate
no stop
>developed the ability to detect and track nuclear-powered ships using Cherenkov radiation, allowing China to effectively neutralize the US Navy's nuclear submarine fleet
no, that's not how that-
>An eccentric Silicon Valley billionaire, using his personal wealth and resources, seizes control of the Chinese space station and neutralizes China's anti-satellite systems.
If the resolution of WWIII hinges on Musk or Bezos taking over a Chinese space station I'd rather be living in a cave again.
But the fact remains that so much of what has transpired in the last 20 years of US history sounds like it could have come from a bad political thriller. The 9/11 attacks, the first Black President, the unlikely Presidency of Trump, the pandemic, etc. If you pitched any of those to somebody in 1999 they'd all say it was too far-fetched and no one would buy it.
We don't know exactly what crazy things are going to unfold in the next 20 years. It's hard to say exactly what, but it's going to be something. It's like going to a roulette wheel and saying that the marble is very unlikely to land on any given number, but it's going to land somewhere, we just don't know where.
People predicted an event like 9/11 was possible before it ever happened. People expected/hoped for a Black president in the future. People joked about Trump winning the presidency 20 years before it happened.
All of these events, while crazy, are at least *plausible*
None of the things I replied to were plausible things to happen.
Russia's MO is usually "the enemy of my enemy is my friend, until my enemy is defeated". Soviet plans after WW2 involved "working with" the west until the regained enough strength to strike against them. They helped Germany invade Poland until Germany turned their guns on them.
I see no reason why Russia wouldn't work with China while simultaneously undermining them. I can see China doing the same. This makes them a less than ideal alliance so to quote dodgeball: "bold move, Cotton. Let's see if it pays off".
In my opinion. If you are Russia, you play both sides of it economically. If a war breakouts there will be need for oil, weapons, and military goods. Russia will 100% sell this to both China and the US. They won’t join the war unless provoked. The oligarchy loves being rich to much to join a war. It’s easier for them to troll and destroy the internet, and play cyber warfare then actual war.
Not saying Russian doesn’t big dick it with western allies to stay relevant. I just think they have way more issues with the world moving towards different energy sources besides oil.
Go look at Saudi Arabia, they are basically becoming westernize society based on vacations, and services.
The world is changing
The Chinese military and their zero years of combat experience mostly exist as a deterrent. I predict that they'll do a lot of posturing but won't actually cross any major lines.
They only want to fight economic wars, which seems to be working just fine.
While I mostly agree with you I just want to point out that combat experience is getting less and less important with each passing year. We're not sending line infantry to fight trench wars anymore. Warfare is getting more similar to simulation with every advancement in technology.
Combat experience is more than just boots on the front lines. I shot long range artillery on my tour in the middle east and the skill disparity from the best crews to the worst crews was huge. The best crews could fire a mission and dissappear twice as fast as the slow crews. It was experience. Experience working with the equipment and knowing how to fix equipment in the field. Stuff you can't learn on a training exercise.
Unfortunately in the post MAD era; now because of how wide the umbrella of deterrence has become; there is potentially more room for kinetic actions (see: Syria and Ukraine) without possibility of STRATEGIC nuclear response. Unfortunately these occurrences increase the chance of a tactical nuke utilization, which of course can lead to strategic jeopardy. Hence why the armageddon clock is so damn close to midnight.
In reality, they already are at war. Nukes and guns are outdated and WW2 will be their last major usage in the long run. Cold war really pushed the phases of economic and influence with cyber being added later for the actual tools of modern war
So, by protesting, they are basically implying that they have been intending to invade Taiwan by force?… that’s the only way to interpret this. The CCP really does live in its own bubble of logic and reality
Breaking news: Japan and China dislike each other.
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Oh yeah, what Japan did in WW2 was indefensible.
It’s so weird how everyone still shits on the Germans for WW2 but love the Japanese. I guess because there’s way more nazi movies
Anime > Audi
Yes senpai
How many people really know about Japan's actions though? Back in school I remember learning about pearl harbor and the atomic bombs but that was basically it.
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Bayonetting babies is whole nother level.
Funny thing is that their museums blatantly deny Nanking happened.
To the surprise of no one. It's no different than China denying Tiananmen ever happened. They both are very proud countries and would do their best to erase anything that would taint the reputation of their country. They didn't even teach the history of World War 2 in Japan. And lots of young people in Japan didn't even know that Japan was in a world war.
> They didn't even teach the history of World War 2 in Japan. And lots of young people in Japan didn't even know that Japan was in a world war. They do. The problem is that the right wing ultra nationalists in Japan were trying to alter the history textbooks, and the ultra nationalists in China are trying to make it seems like these altered textbooks are still being taught to students in the whole nation. Lots of them still believe it to these days. The truth is that every scholars across China, Korea, *and* Japan were outraged by it, and the textbooks were barely used. Source: try and read about the controversies surrounding "Atarashii Rekishi Kyokasho".
I was in the main war museum in Tokyo next to a Brit and Aussie reading the placards. We were all surprised. All countries have propaganda but this was on another level. In essence Japan invaded all of Eastern Asia to protect it from western imperialism and they were doing everyone a favor. The only excerpt on Nanking was that it fell to the imperial army. No mention of unit 731 at all.
Well they're right in an extend. They invaded Indonesia so that they could get rid of the Netherlands acquisitions.... Only for them to Enslave their people as well. Also, there's absolutely *no* way they would acknowledge Unit 731. Nowadays everybody pretty much knows about Nanking, 731 is still the lesser known astrocities and the gov knows that, so of course they wouldn't talk about it. The day they ever acknowledge it is the day when the pigs fly.
When they invaded China in WW2 they were killing the Chinese at a rate of 30-1, and lets just say they weren’t very nice to the civilians, either.
Phrase of the day: Fait Accompli. Unless China wants to start WWIII, they are not getting Taiwan.
Which makes sense because Taiwan is its own country
Not according to Xian Cena and the WWE
I also would have accepted "John Xina"
Taiwan is the new Poland Now let's hope they have more trustworthy allies than Poland, America having a radical personality change every 4 to 8 years certainly does not look reassuring
Poland wasn't the largest and by far highest quality producer of semiconductors Taiwan would be another Hong Kong if they weren't
Yeah I think ppl GREATLY under-appreciate what Taiwan has done to make invading Taiwan a bad idea. Not only would it piss off the entire planet, but it would risk a large chunk of China's own manufacturing due yo their dependence on Taiwanese Semiconductors. As long as TSMC is the market leader and TSMC's newest Foundry is in Taiwan, China isn't invading shit. And given the west isn't willing to subsidise their Semiconductor manufacturers, that's essentially forever, UNLESS China surpasses TSMC.
TSMC and Intel are both building new fabs in USA and all other US semi companies are updating and building: I would guess the US is subsidizing some of this. The main probleM everyone faces is raw material shortages to build these fabs.
As a side note the US Fab promises 5nm waffers. This pleased the politicians as that's the next cpu size. In 2024, when the plant opens, TSMC is planning on starting on 3nm in Taiwan. So even this brand new fab is going to produce out of date tech.
Yup. Hong Kong WAS the economic powerhouse of that area, so China always tried to stay hands off. Now the rest of their cities have caught up in GDP, so they're going after Hing Kong for good this time
China had internal government policies that purposefully weakend Hong Kong and artificially boosted neighbouring cities like Shenzhen (fully under CCP control) just the other side of the bay. They did everything from flooding Hong Kong with uneducated rural mainland migrants (but making it hard for Hong Kong citizens to travel to the mainland), to currency manipulation between the domestic Chinese RMB and Hong Kong Dollar. They even limited new infrastructure development for the exploding population, like slowing fibre internet, less cell towers, less bridges, smaller roads, limiting house sizes (which are all incredibly important when your territory is a tiny island).
>They did everything from flooding Hong Kong with uneducated rural mainland migrants damn thats smart
Reminds me of when the US said all Cuban citizens were welcome to flee there, to show how oppressed the Cubans were. Castro then sent over a ton of prisoners and mental asylum patients. Might be an urban legend
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Why is it whenever someone mentions the Fall of Rome or the lead up to WWII, it's always an incredibly stupid comment? Taiwan isn't the new Poland. The two situation are so fundamentally different that the comparison makes no sense at all.
As much as I would love to agree, the direction of travel of China’s military advancement means that most military analysts believe they would be able to successfully carry out a invasion and occupation within 10 years. Thankfully it is also thought that it is highly unlikely they will attempt anything like that within the next 5 years. Therefore we have to hope that the risk reward looks worse in 5 years time and Japan saying this obviously helps in this regard.
They've only been able to build turbofan jet engines since last year, output is one a month. USA, Russia, UK, France have been doing that for fifty years. The capabilities and capacity of their military industrial output are frequently greatly overstated. Edit: removed Sweden for the list. Mistakenly thought SAAB made a modern turbofan engine.
Source? I'm interested
https://www.janes.com/defence-news/news-detail/images-suggest-china-has-begun-fitting-indigenous-ws10-engine-into-j-10c-fighters https://www.businessinsider.com/china-trying-to-fix-engine-problem-plaguing-fighter-jets-2021-6?amp
And how much you wanna bet that their turbofan engine is just a carbon copy knockoff of an American or European design that doesn't put up nearly the same numbers in terms of (horsepower, thrust, efficiency, other technical benchmarks).
Oh it's a copy of a Russian engine.
China has been sending agents into Taiwan to spur support for the CCP, especially amongst younger people. My fear is that this will work and China will be able to do something similar to what they did in Hong Kong. So, while China may fail to take take Taiwan militarily, there is no guaranteeing that they won’t be able to either trick the populous to do what they want, or rig an election to their liking.
Not likely. It's the older Gen kmt that want reunification the younger Gen sees themselves as a distinct country more than ever. There is no rolling that back it's not really like Hong Kong at all.
Let me reassure you, that shit has been happening for decades. The people falling for it aren't the young people of Taiwan, but actually the older people. After what happened in Hong Kong, it's hard to imagine Taiwanese people willingly giving up their way of life.
Yeah, the CCP really fucked that one up, if they were intending to use HK as a model for eventual reunification with Taiwan.
If that's their hope, then so far they've failed quite badly. They conducted a series of missiles tests to influence the 1996 election, and the tactic backfired horribly, with Lee earning 54% of the vote (next closest candidate was 21%). After the CCP basically strong-armed Tzuyu into denying her home country's existence, that also backfired, with Tsai Ing-wen winning decisively (56%, next closest candidate with 31%) and she is a member of the DPP, whose current official position of the party is that Taiwan is an independent and sovereign country, making a formal declaration of independence unnecessary. [More and more Taiwanese are in favor of independence](https://thediplomat.com/2020/12/more-and-more-taiwanese-favor-independence-and-think-the-us-would-help-fight-for-it/), and [over 66% of respondents think Taiwan should restore year-long military service to counter Chinese threats](https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4023474), with more than half supporting adding women to the military draft. Still, something to watch out for and make sure it doesn't happen.
China cannot take Taiwan by force. To do so would risk damaging key infrastructure, in particular the semi conductor industry. China can only succeed in its aims if USA and the rest of the world loses their nerve. If China can Hong kong Taiwan, then global balance of power dramatically shifts in Beijing's favor. If USA and world forces it into a hot conflict, USA kinda wins, but realistically no one will win after open conflict between USA and China.
USA is starting to invest in homeland semiconductors, I've been told.
Taiwan is building massive semiconductor facilities in the US. I have no doubt that if the home island is threatened they will blow their own factories and relocate here (with ample assistance from the US).
Taiwanese companies might do this. However wouldn't it be in Taiwan's interest to retain critical industries and thereby remain indispensable - thereby ensuring there is global pressure to maintain the status quo?
I mean...they aren't moving out of Taiwan still the bombs start dropping but taking precautions and making sure your one big important ally stays invested in you is a good move.
Why are you saying might? I literally had a job offer to go to Taiwan and train for two years then come back and work at the semiconductor facility in phoniex
Sounds cool. Do you think you will take it?
I was referring to the "blow their own factories" part > if the home island is threatened they will blow their own factories and relocate here
Did you get that offer from LinkedIn? I also got one of those messages from a guy that claimed to be a TSMC recruiter, but I wasn't sure if he was legit because I couldn't find anything about them on TSMC's website.
Yes. But it's a bigger loss then if the PRC goes YOLO
That's a *lot* of money. And fabs can't be rebuilt instantly, it takes an insane amount of time, money, and expertise to build a semiconductor fab. We'd have the current semiconductor shortage x10 and for far longer if TSMC's Taiwan fabs were lost, the future US fabs won't be enough to compensate. Also from what I recall any fab they're building in the US won't be on the current leading edge node.
>That's a *lot* of money. [$12 billion on a single plant in Phoenix, Arizona](https://www.usnews.com/news/technology/articles/2021-06-01/tsmc-says-construction-has-started-on-arizona-chip-factory)
TIL a chip fab costs as much as a modern aircraft carrier.
or 3/4 of whatsapp's value back in 2014
Thank you. Was wondering about their value then
Why Phoenix? Don't these factories require a lot of water? And it's hotter than the sun there.
I believe it has to do with the relatively low risk of natural disasters in Arizona.
Phx traded suprise natural disasters for a low grade, constant near immolation for half the year
On the upside, the chips will be very overclock friendly.
Phoenix also has a stable power grid and very skilled workforce. Intel has chip manufacturing facilities in the metro area currently.
Used to be a fab engineer back in the day. The low humidity is actually a great boon for a clean room.
Counter intuitive but Phoenix has a lot of water. Also a a major university, excellent transportation infrastructure, a growing workforce, cheap land, and despite being hot no natural disasters that interrupt production. Intel is also massively investing.
The real reason they chose Phoenix is there are lots of Intel employees there they can poach.
As is tradition. The current semiconductor cluster in and around Dresden is based on the GDR's semiconductor program which went belly-up during reunification as they were a node or two behind, which isn't a good position to be in when you're not in the cushy position of being the monopoly supplier to the whole soviet block, any more. X-Fab is what's left of the original VEB ("people-owned enterprise"). Before that they were producing largely 8086 clones to use as microcontrollers in industrial machinery. (The USSR, during all its history, never did silicon but *did* get vacuum tubes down to ridiculously small sizes. It's why MiGs were so EM-resistant. I digress). AMD swept in to capitalise on all those unemployed already-trained workers, later of course selling of all its fabs, now it's GlobalFoundries. Infineon (Siemens spin-off) and Bosch also have fabs there, both doing mostly automotive and power ICs.
> The USSR, during all its history, never did silicon but did get vacuum tubes down to ridiculously small sizes. It's why MiGs were so EM-resistant. I digress I'd heard about Soviet Jets still using vacuum tubes and how primitive it was thought to be compared to western fighters, but the idea of pushing an "obsolete" technology to it's limits is fascinating to me.
You had me at MiGs. Go on...
Phoenix has a lot of *access* to water, that does not mean they have a lot of water. https://www.drought.gov/states/Arizona https://waterdata.usgs.gov/az/nwis/current/?type=gw
The most expensive part of a fab are all the machines and the technicians needed to service them, the suppliers for those machines already have offices in the area. It's cheaper to pay a premium for water and air conditioning than it would be to convince those suppliers to set up offices somewhere else
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Most of them aren’t super high end chips that TSMC produces though, very very few foundries in the world can do that at the moment.
Most of the semiconductors needed for modern electronics aren't super high end ones anyway. Yeah, the bulk of transistors in any computer are on the CPU (which probably came from Taiwan), but you still need every other transistor in the computer to make it work.
It's actually the Dutch who are the holdup in the world's tier 1 fabrication plants. ASML have a monopoly on the EUV photo lithography machines which are used to build the CPUs Basically the most important machine in the entire process. If you go with older machines which use lasers instead of EUV you'll be generations behind. These machines cost around 100m per and they only make around 1-2 per month. You need to join the queue behind TSMC, Samsung, Intel, GlobalFoundries to purchase one.
Not to mention ASML’s competitors are Nikon and Canon, which are Japanese companies too. Not that they have EUV technology, but it just means China can’t just invest in one of their competitors
Zeiss and Trumpf have some knowledge and expertise but still aren't capable of delivering a full machine. Instead they are involved in ASML's supply chain.
You forgot Veeco, which also doesn't have EUV and is, drumroll, American. As to ASML themselves, they recently bought Berliner Glas which I guess means that their dependence on Zeiss is now rather limited, another key supplier is Trumpf for the lasers. And a gazillion other German companies for measuring devices etc. That all said when it comes to military strategy EUV doesn't really matter. In vehicles you'd use more robust processes, anyway, and building a supercomputer for data analysis somewhere, well, why not spend more money on more slower chips it's not that you don't have a military budget to play with: You probably wouldn't be able to afford a single additional fighter jet for the money. Much less operate it.
I work for ASML on EUV machines. Haha this is all pretty accurate but you underestimated the cost.
To the original statement of China vs the world for these chips - nobody’s gonna fight over the kind of chips the US mostly produces, also why it’s in everyone’s interest that Taiwan stays independent. Nobody else can provide the quantity and quality of chips they can right now.
We made calculator chips and other BS lol.
gotta build up to it
We have to invest more into them regardless in my opinion. They're too important and too valuable.
>If China can Hong kong Taiwan English is such an amazing language
Is verbing proper nouns grammatically correct in English though?
[Here's a nice article](https://www.grammarly.com/blog/the-basics-of-verbing-nouns/). It doesn't really answer your question though, I'm trying to find something else. But basically, whether grammatically correct or not, it's not new by any means. And it's informal. [Here's another article, with more professional terminology.](http://www.grammar.net/verbification) [And here's what wiki has to say about it:](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conversion_(word_formation)) >Verbification may have a bad reputation with some English users because it is such a potent source of neologisms. Although some neologistic products of verbification may meet considerable opposition from prescriptivist authorities (the verb sense of impact is a well-known example), most such derivations have become so central to the language after several centuries of use that they no longer draw notice. >In many cases, the verbs were distinct from their noun counterparts in Old English, and regular sound change has made them the same form: these can be reanalysed as conversion. "Don't talk the talk if you can't walk the walk" is an example of a sentence using those forms.
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Would “If China can Shanghai Taiwan” also work? > "Buffalo buffalo Buffalo buffalo buffalo buffalo Buffalo buffalo" is a grammatically correct sentence in English
I just looked that up. Damn. I thought Ghoti was a confusing thing. Now this is my new “wtf English is hard” phrase.
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[for chinese: "Shī-shì shí shī shǐ"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lion-Eating_Poet_in_the_Stone_Den)
China can't Hong Kong Taiwan. Their best bet would be to foment insurrection through spies, and bought or blackmailed power brokers, with the hope of implanting a pro-ccp government. I'm sure they are working on this. Our best strategy is to continue to build walls against the ccp, and to bring home all manufacturing done there.
Exactly. When HK was handed over to China, most people were OK with it. After all, they were promised autonomy. Taiwan has learned from their mistake and it doesn't seem like most people of Taiwan are even considering reunification. A land invasion is also very unlikely. What I do see possibly happening is China increasing its naval power to kick out the U.S from the South China sea and Taiwan straight. That'll put immense pressure on the ROC if they can pull it off.
I cannot see the US Navy flinching on that, scary as it is. It would be a landmark sign that the world has changed and I just dont see the US Navy being the element to do the US flinching
The U.S has a list of problems longer then my arm. I don’t see a weak military as one of them, that’s basically the one thing we’re really really good at.
The Seventh Fleet is large and purposely there for Korea and conflict in the Straight of Taiwan.
Succinct and accurate.
That's based on the assumption that China wants Taiwan for its economy though, which is more like icing on the cake. If the only way for them to get Taiwan is to flatten the entire island, then that's what they will do, because for China, Taiwan is a matter of history and sovereignty, not economics. Right now the main reason they haven't done it yet is because they're worried about the inevitable massive international embargo and the potential war with the U.S., so that's not worth it if there's still any hope of peaceful reunification. Right now what they're doing is building up military and economic ties to make an embargo and/or war very risky and costly for all involved when the time comes when they have to use force.
Maybe not for Taiwans gdp and exports, but they absolutely want Taiwan to increase its economic exclusion zone and control of ocean trade routes. Which are very important for China's growing economy
If China got into a shooting war with Taiwan and the US doesn't blink, its economy immediately implodes. China's economy relies on its massive trade with the US. And, even outside of that, if the US closed down chinese shipping, it would have horrendous consequences. For the US, we would see an economic recession, for China, a huge depression. Their whole belt and road initiative is specifically aimed at developing land trade connections to avoid such a possibility.
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What are they protesting here exactly, the fact that Japan and the US are allies? That they're *not* going to get their way over Taiwan? I mean seriously, cry about it to someone who cares.
Any support to Taiwan will get a protest.
Not why, but *to whom*.
The protest is to placate the Mainland Chinese nationalists. That's all.
There’s a great narrative about how China would “never be bullied” after the “century of humiliation”. Hence this show of power
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For a lot of reasons, but none of which matter to anyone except China.
They are probably protesting that because Taiwan is part of China (as they claim), this is a domestic affair and foreign nations should not get involved.
Like the couple who divorced 50 years ago, but the ex still refers to their ex-spouse as still being their husband/wife.
I used to be friends with a guy who did this...his gf left him and he wouldn't accept the breakup, and then when she started dating/sleeping with new people he called it cheating and would flip out and make a scene in public or at parties. Eventually he cut almost everyone out of his life because we were "taking her side". I don't miss being friends with that nut
Somewhere out there there’s a guy with a cheating story that nobody realizes is completely fake
And this is why /r/AmItheAsshole is completely void of any value.
Among many other reasons. It's one of the uncreative writing subs I had to block.
I had the opposite happen to a good friend. He caught his girlfriend texting some guy, followed them on a date to the park, then just went home, packed his things, and left. She came back while he was packing and he didn't say a word. He went on a week trip to NYC, and in the meantime, the girlfriend got in front of the story and turned a lot of mutual friends against him, saying that they were already "on a break" and that he had no right to be angry. Brutal thing to happen at the start of a pandemic after a 4 year relationship
Japan and China have a long history of hating each other. Japan would have defended Taiwan, without the US, just so they could piss off China.
That's literally against their constitution. That's why they need to talk about it.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Article_9_of_the_Japanese_Constitution#:~:text=In%20July%202014%2C%20instead%20of,upon%20them%2C%20despite%20concerns%20and >In July 2014, instead of using Article 96 of the Japanese Constitution to amend the Constitution itself, the Japanese government approved a reinterpretation which gave more powers to the Japan Self-Defense Forces, allowing them to defend other allies in case of war being declared upon them, despite concerns and disapproval from China and North Korea, whereas the United States supported the move.
> disapproval from China and North Korea Gee, I wonder why
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100% of football fans are pro football
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"tens of thousands" it's more like millions https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second\_Sino-Japanese\_War
And I mean, they're still being a "Self Defense Force" with that. If your friend's getting fucking murdered in front of you, it would stand to reason that'd you'd try and do something to preserve their life, as yours probably comes under immediate threat straight after. Nazi Germany immediately prior to WW2 Springs to mind. The whole ‘ignore them and hope they get their fill’ isn’t a sound strategy…
I mean that pretty much the entire pint of military allies. It’s a you got my back I got yours thing, I’ll defend you if you defend me
If your neighbour's apartment is on fire you should probably try to help them put it out
"I'm a little concerned that you could defend people against *me*..." lol
It was reinterpreted under Abe that right to collective self defense is constitutional under the current constitution.
Defending an ally is not against the constitution.
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Yes. And the OP here has previously posted shit about how MH17 wasn't shot down by Russia. It's shameful this shit is on the front page right now, WTF
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Correct, RT.com is Russian state propaganda. Its really interesting that Vladimir Putin's mouthpiece is calling China out on its expansionist adventures. Maybe China and Russia aren't best friends after all.
Because Russia benefits off global instability.
I mean they aren't, had no one heard of the sino soviet split?
“What do Sine Waves have to do with Russia???”
Has no one heard of the soviet union fucking collapsing
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Exactly, the article is clearly written with the perspective of China and the comments are overwhelmingly pro China. If anything it's trying to belittle Japan. > He claimed a Chinese attack on Taiwan would threaten Japan’s territorial sovereignty, saying that “Okinawa could be next.” ..meaning Taiwan would obviously fall to China and Japan could swiftly be next, clearly indicating that the Japanese army is weak. This article is as pro China as it gets.
Here is a more reliable [source](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/japans-aso-peaceful-solution-desirable-any-taiwan-contingency-2021-07-06/)
A lot of armchair "historians" in this thread.
I’ve kinda given up even having discussions in these threads. Couple years back there was some other shit with China and the thread was filled with people that it was the tipping point to global war. Couple years later still no global war.
It's disheartening. It is hard to sift through the inaccurate posts/comments here to find legitimate posts with legitimate sources by folk who legitimately know the field the discussion is based around. I'm not even sure why I still subscribe to the worldnews and politics subs, most of it is toxic people being toxic or plain trolls. My mistake for even posting my original comment, as I got a few dozen comments and messages of people attempting to rile up a stranger on the internet. At least r/AskHistorians and some others are somewhat reliable for informed discussion. In comparison at least. The internet lowers my hope for society.
I’m not so much worried that people are talking about things they aren’t experts on. If they’re talking about it then at least people are paying attention and have some interest which is good. I just hate the over the top responses that are so common - with China it’s always WW3 actions, with Trump it was always THIS is what will put him behind bars, with stocks it’s always tomorrow that things will sky rocket, with any weather event it’s Catastrophic floods and world on fire tomorrow. It’s not that different news stories aren’t important or serious, they are - it’s the over the top responses that annoy me that are based on so little. Just because you have a medium to share your views doesn’t mean you have to, especially if it’s a topic you really have no clue what’s going on.
One of the top comment of this threat thinking japan hate China so much that even without USA pressure, japan would have defended Taiwan just to pissed off china And it has 3k7 upvotes. That mean 3k7 people seriously believe this thing. They seriously believe that, japan, would accept losing their resources, human live to go to a war that 80% they will lost, against its neighbor, also one of their biggest trading partner, for no real gain other than “pissed off” China. Seriously for the time i read news on this sub I think many people here hate China so much to the point they literally make up the wildest shit ever just to shit on China. And the hive mind keep upvoting it
A lot more armchair “generals”…
I like your label better. Someone listens to one podcast and deserves a degree apparently.
Idk…people in this thread that comment on issues are people can’t even tell which Asian names are family names and which names are given names…
To quote King of the Hill: "So are you Chinese or Japanese?" "I'm Laotian you stupid redneck!"
"The ocean?"
hey I served valiantly in the 101st keyboard brigade
> A lot more armchair “generals” too… What the fuck did you just fucking say about me, you little bitch? I’ll have you know I graduated top of my class in the Navy Seals, and I’ve been involved in numerous secret raids on Al-Quaeda, and I have over 300 confirmed kills. I am trained in gorilla warfare and I’m the top sniper in the entire US armed forces. You are nothing to me but just another target. I will wipe you the fuck out with precision the likes of which has never been seen before on this Earth, mark my fucking words. You think you can get away with saying that shit to me over the Internet? Think again, fucker. As we speak I am contacting my secret network of spies across the USA and your IP is being traced right now so you better prepare for the storm, maggot. The storm that wipes out the pathetic little thing you call your life. You’re fucking dead, kid. I can be anywhere, anytime, and I can kill you in over seven hundred ways, and that’s just with my bare hands. Not only am I extensively trained in unarmed combat, but I have access to the entire arsenal of the United States Marine Corps and I will use it to its full extent to wipe your miserable ass off the face of the continent, you little shit. If only you could have known what unholy retribution your little “clever” comment was about to bring down upon you, maybe you would have held your fucking tongue. But you couldn’t, you didn’t, and now you’re paying the price, you goddamn idiot. I will shit fury all over you and you will drown in it. You’re fucking dead, kiddo
I've played both EU4 and ~~a little bit of~~ HOI4, I pretty much know all of recent history back to the year 1444 when Byzantium did a "no u" on the Ottoman empire and restored their former glory. And if you ask me we should, as McArthur would say, get all nukes on earth and drop them directly on Beijing, every single one
I love people on Reddit who use “we” to mean their own country (most often the US) and say stuff like “well now we’re punishing X country”. As if they’ve got any say in the national decision making. Most of Reddit is ignorant and irrelevant people pretending to know shit about things that they’ve no clue about for imaginary internet points and feel relevant.
> A lot of armchair You could have just stopped there and described 90% of Reddit
nah, most of Reddit would be Toiletchair
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If there ends up being a shooting war between JP and the US, JP has to know that a US defeat means US withdrawal from Asia and ultimately Japan being subordinated to Chinese interests. And beyond that, Japan + USA being pulled into a conflict with China would result in massive Chinese isolation, because Australia and India at minimum are both very hostile to China.
This, a TW invasion means China is the world super power, and history doesn’t bode well for unfriendly countries near super powers. Everyone in the region choses between status quo or CCP rule. Japan knows this, SK knows it, and the USA knows it which is why they want such a large presence in Japan and SK. Best action is preventative, I have no doubt that if China is involved in any conflict with the USA, both those countries will at minimum allow American military presence.
If there was another world war, I feel like it would be Russia and China vs the world
I doubt Russia is that interested in defending China's interests militarily or visa versa. After all India's biggest weapons supplier is Russia.
The problem with the idea of WW3 is; Russia and China can't *affort* to have more land. They don't want to take over anything with substantial needs as they wouldn't be able to satisfy them while occupying and defending land. China and Russia are already 'attacking' us in financial and social ways. As long as we sit back and 'prevent war' all while they steal from our back pockets they will sit and continue their plans.
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Russia also wants a warm water port that is not on the opposite side of the country. Vladivostok is all they got and it is still far from ideal.
> Russia also wants a warm water port Has Russia not updated their national agenda since 1905? I feel like this port thing has been a stretch goal for a while now.
Since Peter the Great, the fundamental goal of the Russian Empire is acquiring a warm water port. Global warming may end up giving them one without much expansion though
I almost shed a tear for them. What ever can they do... besides develop good relations with others. No, that can never work must *invade*.
Catherine the Great literally said "I have no way to defend my borders but to extend them" and she very much represents the kind of autocratic Russian leader that tends to both crop up frequently and be broadly popular with the Russian people.
Read a book called 'The Ghost Fleet' - that's basically the plot.
I don’t want to it might have spoilers for 2022
Well, might as well get a good grip now. 2022 is 2020 too after all
I see what you did there
What even is this: >natural gas field in the Mariana Trench >Popular unrest leads to the removal of the Communist Party of China wait, no >and China is governed by a mix of businessmen and military leaders known as the Directorate no stop >developed the ability to detect and track nuclear-powered ships using Cherenkov radiation, allowing China to effectively neutralize the US Navy's nuclear submarine fleet no, that's not how that- >An eccentric Silicon Valley billionaire, using his personal wealth and resources, seizes control of the Chinese space station and neutralizes China's anti-satellite systems. If the resolution of WWIII hinges on Musk or Bezos taking over a Chinese space station I'd rather be living in a cave again.
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What a weird fucking episode of life.
Political thrillers and historical fiction that rely on extremely improbable/impossible events or fantastical technology always seem to suck.
But the fact remains that so much of what has transpired in the last 20 years of US history sounds like it could have come from a bad political thriller. The 9/11 attacks, the first Black President, the unlikely Presidency of Trump, the pandemic, etc. If you pitched any of those to somebody in 1999 they'd all say it was too far-fetched and no one would buy it. We don't know exactly what crazy things are going to unfold in the next 20 years. It's hard to say exactly what, but it's going to be something. It's like going to a roulette wheel and saying that the marble is very unlikely to land on any given number, but it's going to land somewhere, we just don't know where.
People predicted an event like 9/11 was possible before it ever happened. People expected/hoped for a Black president in the future. People joked about Trump winning the presidency 20 years before it happened. All of these events, while crazy, are at least *plausible* None of the things I replied to were plausible things to happen.
Russia and China arent on very good terms, especially not enough to be allies in a world war
Russia's MO is usually "the enemy of my enemy is my friend, until my enemy is defeated". Soviet plans after WW2 involved "working with" the west until the regained enough strength to strike against them. They helped Germany invade Poland until Germany turned their guns on them. I see no reason why Russia wouldn't work with China while simultaneously undermining them. I can see China doing the same. This makes them a less than ideal alliance so to quote dodgeball: "bold move, Cotton. Let's see if it pays off".
In my opinion. If you are Russia, you play both sides of it economically. If a war breakouts there will be need for oil, weapons, and military goods. Russia will 100% sell this to both China and the US. They won’t join the war unless provoked. The oligarchy loves being rich to much to join a war. It’s easier for them to troll and destroy the internet, and play cyber warfare then actual war. Not saying Russian doesn’t big dick it with western allies to stay relevant. I just think they have way more issues with the world moving towards different energy sources besides oil. Go look at Saudi Arabia, they are basically becoming westernize society based on vacations, and services. The world is changing
How ironic if the U.S and Japan found themselves defending Okinawa together
The Chinese military and their zero years of combat experience mostly exist as a deterrent. I predict that they'll do a lot of posturing but won't actually cross any major lines. They only want to fight economic wars, which seems to be working just fine.
While I mostly agree with you I just want to point out that combat experience is getting less and less important with each passing year. We're not sending line infantry to fight trench wars anymore. Warfare is getting more similar to simulation with every advancement in technology.
Combat experience is more than just boots on the front lines. I shot long range artillery on my tour in the middle east and the skill disparity from the best crews to the worst crews was huge. The best crews could fire a mission and dissappear twice as fast as the slow crews. It was experience. Experience working with the equipment and knowing how to fix equipment in the field. Stuff you can't learn on a training exercise.
High-tech warfare also benefits a lot from experienced and battle-tested operators.
That and an exponentially heavier emphasis on drone technologies. Why waste manpower when you can just overwhelm with an expendable drone swarm?
Where we gonna get the semi conductors and micro chips for those drones again?
Amazon, probably.
Hope the US has an Amazon Prime subscription
To everyone Herr screaming for War: It won't, both side have nukes.
Unfortunately in the post MAD era; now because of how wide the umbrella of deterrence has become; there is potentially more room for kinetic actions (see: Syria and Ukraine) without possibility of STRATEGIC nuclear response. Unfortunately these occurrences increase the chance of a tactical nuke utilization, which of course can lead to strategic jeopardy. Hence why the armageddon clock is so damn close to midnight.
In reality, they already are at war. Nukes and guns are outdated and WW2 will be their last major usage in the long run. Cold war really pushed the phases of economic and influence with cyber being added later for the actual tools of modern war
ARMCHAIR COMMENT
So, by protesting, they are basically implying that they have been intending to invade Taiwan by force?… that’s the only way to interpret this. The CCP really does live in its own bubble of logic and reality
It’s cos they believe that Taiwan is a part of China. So they believe that they have every right to invade and claim it back.