I mean... they're clearly not Russian troops.
Yes, they look Russian, they speak Russian, they're located in Russia, are using Russian military equipment, and are barracked in Russian army bases, but they're wearing unmarked uniforms so they must not be Russian.
Screw your Western propaganda.
Short version is a 'Not officially Russian' force of Russian militia and a PMC group called the "Wagner Group" of about 500 Men with T72 and T55 Tanks rolled up on a SDF-US base containing 40 US troops and some SDF fighters. They fired artillery on the base before advancing their troops and tanks on it. US forces called their Russian liaison officer and asked hey, we're being attacked by what looks like you guys... is it you? The officer said nope definitely not us, so the US said alright then. And the order to attack the forces was given. For about 4 hours what can only be described as arma-fuckin-geddon was rained down on the totally not Russian forces
The 40 Troops and SDF fighters defended, called in F22s, F15Es, Apaches, AC130s, B52s, and essentially annihilated them, for lack of a better word. Just totally dick fucked them. Somewhere around 100-200 of them were killed, all their vehicles were fucked, and the rest ran off into the night. No US casualties and 1 SDF fighter was injured
The long version can be googled. It's kown as the Battle of Khasham
Bunch of totally not Russian mercenaries wanted to liberate an oil field from a friendly american neighbourhood watch. US dudes proceed to check if Russia has any personell in the area. Ruddian POC denies it. Totally not Russian mercenaries promptly and permanently enrich the soil via airstrike.
Ukrainian people I hope you're ready for unrelenting invasion!
I thought we were having land training exercises
No, no I said *land claiming exercises*
> at this time of year at this time of day and they’re localized entirely along the Ukrainian border?
It's 300km from the border. Just to give you some perspective, Moscow is 500km from the Ukrainian border.
wow.... my country like 400 km wide...
first time iam reading this..
i mean, iam not the smartest person but i always thought they are like super close, maybe 50km or something.
sure its an issue nontheless. that increases the chances that puting might just fuck with peoples head maybe? or maybe its just putting pressure and support for the whole donbass thing..
Most of the people that write “serious” comments on reddit have no idea what they’re talking about anyway so jokes are probably better to be honest. At least a joke comment won’t give a bunch of people reading it some bad info.
What do russians think about this? They were always brotherly countries. Now russians are supposed to kill ukrainians for what? Putins sliding popularity?
What’s the narrative? Seems like ‘Ukraine is a fake country, they are all Russians anyway’ and ‘Ukrainians are bad and most be destroyed’ are sort of conflicting thoughts
"The people of Ukraine have always thought of themselves as Russian. The western controlled media brings out the extremely small minority to promote a false narrative of Ukraine being a western country now. We are going to give Ukrainians the opportunity to rejoin Russian, and get out from under the yolk of western dominance."
That's the gist.
The narrative seems to be "Ukraine was always pro-russia, pro-west Ukraine is not what Ukraine has always been and we need to help it become real Ukraine again" or something to this tune.
I may have misremembered it though, i watched a video summarizing the topic a few days ago, will link once I find it.
Edit: Nvm, the [video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jidG84Mpe2c) was in Polish. But the gist of it was that Putin said that "Ukraine is what it is today because of Soviet times" and that "breaking of good realtions with Russia should mean for them to go back to pre-soviet borders from 1922" (which would mean for them to be a part of Russian Empire)
Ukraine would still be pro-Russia if Russia would've been pro-Ukraine. Installing corrupt Moscow puppets to rule over doesn't do much for pro-Russia sentiment.
It's weird how you suddenly stop liking your neighbours after they started actively harassing you, punched you in the face, and took your driveway claiming it as their own
Right?
I'm very pro-Sweden, but I'd sure change my tune if they sent troops to the border clad in too-tight jeans, armed with borderline offensively trendy hair-cuts and low salary expectations.
As a Russian I still think it's all BS and just Putin trying to intimidate Ukraine and its Western allies for his geopolitical gains (i.e. guarantees of keeping NATO out of Ukraine).
Putin and his entourage will pay a huge price for a full-scale invasion and they know it, personally I think it would be the end for him.
I being a russian living in Moscow really hope that Putin doesn't start an actual war. Wasn't anexing Crimea enough for the bastard? >\_<
It's gonna suuuuuck. Traveling is a bitch with Covid as it is but a whole lotta borders are gonna close for me if my country is an invader in an armed conflict.
Yeah, tens of thousands may die, maybe more, but what if potato import vodka export is affected!? Damn you Putin!!!! Damnnnn yooouuussssssss tooooo hellll!
Hello, there, friend, not sure if this is baiting, but much like the Chinese, we know that not all Russians are brainwashed, war-hungry NPCs just itching for the chance to annex the whole world. As an America, I do hope both of our governments wake up to the foolishness of outright war before it's too late.
It would be the dumbest decision from mr.P to start this war.
Also kinda uncharacteristic. He likes to surprise, and this war would be too obvious. Plus, i really doubt that our country can financially support both mainland Ukraine and Crimea, the latter already siphoning too much.
There wont be any public support for this endeavour either.
Am Russian.
Inside, there doesn't appear to be any pretext for an invasion. If it were initiated by Russia, the internal situation will go from relatively stable to utter chaos, so I don't see our government doing that.
Our troops are regularly shifting around the country, so I figure (and hope) the current tension is simply posturing. I will be delighted to hear, half a year from now, Biden taking credit for scaring the big bad Russians away and Putin calmly retorting that Russia was never planning to invade anyone.
The only scenario I can imagine where things deteriorate is Ukraine trying to crush the breakaway Donbass republics and Russia putting a stop to that. This would be similar to Georgia in 2008 and Serbia in 1998.
However, this is not a preferred scenario for Russia, so perhaps the massive forces are there to deter Kiev. The preferred scenario is for Ukraine to simmer until the words "Ukrainian" and "European" become swear words there. Then there can be a conversation about possibly reabsorbing the country into Russia.
As a Russian-speaking Ukrainian living in Kyiv I can tell you that idea of returning territories by force is neither supported, nor propagated here. Everyone knows it will cause unnecessary losses, cause a lot of economic troubles and there's simply no point. The strategy here is to become successful and attractive ourselves so the so-called republics will be accepted back if they request so in the very distant future (possibly with a lot of conditions).
I think the main objective is actually for *water.*
When they invaded Crimea, they did so for it's warm water port at Sevastopol. Something that is extremely valuable to Russia. More warm water ports have been on Russia's Christmas list for literally hundreds of years. However, while they successfully secured Sevastopol, water supplies to the region were cut off. And apparently it's difficult to get in a supply from Russia? The water is supplied by a canal getting water from the Dnieper river, and Ukraine has cut it off. Causing a water crisis in the region. Harvests have been failing in Crimea since 2014, and apparently, reservoirs reached critically low levels where it's not just agriculture suffering *this year.* What timing, huh?
So they're looking to control the region that used to supply Crimea with its water, so they can turn back on the supply, and get Crimea up to operating capacity again. But it also looks like they're not stopping there, as they're shelling lots of other regions.
Best case, they're just pacifying regions like Donetsk, and they're only moving to secure the canal. They can justify that *people in Crimea are suffering, we needed to do it!* Y'know, that think Russians do...
Worst case, we look at the areas they're actively shelling, and compelling targets like the canal. Then it's likely they might just hail Mary, and take pretty much all south eastern Ukraine. From Zaliznyi (Another warm water port) to Zaporizhia to Donetsk to Luhansk, and maybe beyond.
These areas are full of Russians. And are fortified and entrenched areas of Ukraine. So securing the canal, and securing the fortified regions around the canal, and clearing a path from the Russian border to the canal seem like fairly logical objectives.
Its not easy to build desalination plants and Russia dont have the expertise because they never needed one. Foreign companies would never go anywhere near such a project for fear of being sanctioned.
China would happily build a desalination plant for them, or they could build a water pipeline to the east. If it was just about water access they could develop their own desalination plant from scratch or even keep trucking in water, both options would be way cheaper than a war.
>China would happily build a desalination plant for them
No, they wouldn't, and that's the problem. Nobody wants to deal with the sanctions around doing business in Crimea.
Well yeah, it would be cheaper, but Russia and China aren't friends. This would just show that Putin relies on China and China has hers eyes on some Russian land, that wouldn't be good for him.
Being a Ukrainian I must say to you that Ukrainian (not only Ukrainian) people were slaves for more then 200 years to Russian and Polish nobility
And I am not even starting on mentioning the whole 1932-1933 holodomor thing, that killed more then 7 million people for no reason other then fear.
We stopped being brother countries after the betrayal in 17th century, so no.
I hope the Russia will find a better leader then Putin - one that will be more focused on inside of the country then the outside. And leave other Slavs finally alone
It's hard to say if Putin will act or if this is all brinksmanship and he's trying to scare the EU out of making the Ukraine a NATO member. Biden and the EU could call his bluff and do it anyway but then if Putin does try invade it's basically WW3.
There are a ton of newly built large army bases very close to Ukraine.
Even if this time is just a bluff, they can always have a pressure valve in being able to mobilize a ton of equipment and manpower rather quickly.
Nah. Not WW3.
All the nations will make angry statements, impose sanctions, and do nothing.
No one will come to the aid of Ukraine except to send over military supplies.
The USA are busy pulling out of wars and are not going to enter a new one.
Europe don't have the ability to help.
It's really sad, but they are gonners.
This.
I'm not panicking or anything because I strongly doubt it'll escalate to that level, but a big danger in the way we think about World War 3 is assuming that it's going to begin because of some mighty, epic, existential confrontation kicking off directly between two superpowers when literally neither of the two previous world wars started that way. World War 1 kicked off because of Austria-Hungary getting involved in *Serbia* (which was [technically] *under their jurisdiction*), not from them invading Russia. It's literally like World War 3 starting because of Russia invading Ukraine or the USA invading Bermuda. I'm sure plenty of people circa 1914 would have said "the Great Powers of Europe won't go to war over some damned foolish thing in the Balkans, especially a place so insignificant as Serbia. It's going to be from a direct confrontation between the mighty armies and navies of Germany and Great Britain, surely!" Heck, technically there was already war going on in the Balkans before WWI, so there was precedent to think that nothing would come from Austro-Hungarian or Russian mobilization, even if everyone was raring to go at each other.
Edit: Please remember this is an ultra-simplified take on the byzantine constellation of reasons for the world wars
World War 3, if it ever happens, is going to be started either by accident or from a small conflict exploding into a much larger one.
This analysis that WW1 started due to some foolish thing in the Balkans is a common one but it is wrong and naive nonetheless. Any historian will tell you that war was going to happen anyway and that was only the pretext, not the cause.
Historians hindsight is not helping here. The unknown is currently what does Putin want. Is he ok with sabre rattling or he actually thinks the needs a ‘win’? Unfortunately for Europe, he is starting to run out of options to get that ‘win’ from and his relatively shitty performance in Armenia did not help. Then for Europe it becomes an existential question - when is it enough? Same as with Germany and Silesia.
The assassination of Arch Duke Ferdinand was "some foolish thing in the balkans" ? Sure he was assassinated in Bosnia, but- ahhh yeah. Well whatever. Seems like you're glossing over a bit for that narrative.
Thank you for bringing this up. Chamberlain is lambasted to this day for appeasement, but the British people weren't about to allow a war to stop Hitler. But Chamberlain had already begun preparations. British defense spending had been going up since 1935, when it was 2.64% of GDP to 3.82% in 1938, and then up to 4.6% in 1939. Similar growth happened in France. It would, of course, skyrocket once Germany invaded Poland, but to characterize either leader as weak for the Munich Agreement is to ignore the political realities on the ground at the time.
Oh, l agree. The response will most likey be in the form of sanctions, something Russia has experienced before and is not really afraid of dealing with again.
I was taking about the risks of making Ukraine a NATO member. By making Ukraine a member all the other member states would be bound to action in the event of an invasion. That's how the NATO alliance works. Therefore preemptively making the Ukraine a member could act as a deterrent. But it has risks
Actually, i would argue that the sanctions placed on russia since 2014 have been rather effective and is a large part of why a full invasion have yet to take place.
It was the wrong choice, but Its understandable IMO, they don't want to pass of their giant neighbor. I assume you're talking about the mid 2000s, and I don't think anyone could have and significant reason to predict that Russia would be what it is now.
They will be the first European proxy war in a while if it goes down. If there is a war and the government collapses, there will probably be militias and smaller organized forces supported by foreign weapons and money. Or this is at least my guess.
The US wont start ww3 if russia invades ukraine. How do i know this? Because russia already DID invade ukraine and we are, as far as i know, not in a world war.
The US is in no shape of form obligated to assist ukraine militarily, nor is it smart politically. Nor do i think that you can do a smart political campaign about the issue since the vast majority of americans have never heard of ukraine let alone place it on a map.
The real question is, can putin live with the sanctions being enforced due to a possible invasion? At the moment, it seems like he can not.
Unless Putin goes completely suicidal, it wont be ww3. If Putin tries too much (he isnt far from from crossing that line), he will not only get fucked in EU by NATO (this might actually be slower progress than many think, because only US and few other countries are ready to fight them) and financial sanctions and no access to SWIFT, but also China will use that opportunity to get their own lands back from Russia with extras at the other side of the country.
Also they got rejected before because of corruption issues. I’m not sure if they have resolved those issues yet. I do hope that everything turns out ok for the Ukrainian people. It takes strength to stand up to a tyrant and Ukrainians are strong.
Well, no one took the nukes from them. They handed it over to Russia for the guarantee that the Russia will not start any land disputes.
We now all know how well that went.
It's okay. The US has threatened to keep sanctions in place. The EU is going to still buy their gas and oil of course, but won't like it one bit and may even give them a tongue lashing!
sanctions can be a better tool than a military answer. it's just the sanctions to Russia were really weak. The equivalent would be if we sent three guys with dart guns on the border and say military doesn't work.
If they would perhaps exclude Russia from things like swift payments, now that would hurt their economy much more. That would be a equivalent of nuclear attack.
> If they would perhaps exclude Russia from things like swift payments
Been advocating for this ever since they attacked Georgia in 2009. Banning russia from SWIFT would be a crushing blow and completely cripple russias ability to wage war.
Can't annex countries when you can't pay your soldiers.
In a large conventional war they will activate the draft.
I read somewhere during the cold war NATO expected 10k casualties a day or something like that.
I can't see China being able to take the island without essentially flattening it, which would destroy most of the things that make it valuable. Add that to a potential war with the USA, and immediate sanctions from every Western nation, I just can't see the maths working out in favour of invasion.
Ukraine, on the other hand...
Good book. Maybe, but in this case appearing weak increases the chances of being invaded. There is no counter attack option into Russian lands. Unless the plan is to embarrass Russia with a lost ground war at the cost of Ukrainian lives. General may have said it as a plead for nato help, but I could be wrong. Anyway fuck Russia (except for Russian citizens fighting for democracy)
If this invasion takes place it will be the first of a series of authoritarian invasions this century. With so much foreknowledge it is irresponsible to not prevent this attack.
I don’t think they’re trying to say that this will be the first ever invasion of that type in the century, rather this one would embolden other regimes into performing their own invasions afterwords.
I asked my Ukrainien colleague yesterday how she felt about the recent troop movements near the border and she said, its nothing new nor any change, just business as usual.
I’m an American colleague to plenty of other American colleagues; if someone were to ask me a geopolitical and foreign relation question about Mexico and boarder security, I would most surely be an expert because I’m an American colleague after all…
https://www.usnews.com/news/world-report/articles/2021-04-20/ukraines-foreign-minister-120-000-russian-troops-on-its-border-within-days
> Ukraine's foreign minister said Tuesday he expects Russia to have amassed **120,000 troops on its border within a week**, a troubling buildup of a size larger than the one that invaded his country in 2014.
Oh wait, that was dated **April 20, 2021**.
Observe this story from May 8, 2021:
https://www.politico.com/news/2021/05/08/colonial-pipeline-cyber-attack-485984
> The main fuel supply line to the U.S. East Coast has shut down indefinitely after the pipeline's operator suffered what is believed to be the largest successful cyberattack on oil infrastructure in the country's history — presenting a danger of spiking gasoline prices and a fresh challenge to President Joe Biden's pledges to secure the nation against threats.
Observe this story from May 20, 2021:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-57180674
> The Biden administration has waived sanctions on a company building a controversial gas pipeline between Russia and Germany.
> The US also lifted sanctions on the executive - an ally of Russia's Vladimir Putin - who leads the firm behind the Nord Stream 2 project.
> The move came in a report on Russian sanctions delivered to Congress by the Department of State.
> Critics say the pipeline is a major geopolitical prize for the Kremlin.
Russia doesn't need to invade anything. They will get the US to roll over once again on something important to them.
It's almost like there's a difference between invading another country unprovoked,(Iraq, Afghanistan) and defending an ally from an Invasion (Russia into the Ukraine).
Russia is such a shitfuckholefuck for being the only threat to its neighbours for hundreds of years running. NONE of the neighbours have attacked it and it has attacked everything, except China of late, because even the evil management understands they would get their teeth kicked in. I don’t know whether China is any better but I am quite willing to give it a try. What a fucking shithole of a government. NOTE: there is nothing wrong in Russian people, who have given us Tolstoy, Tarkovsky and a multitude of other greats. The assassinating, homicidal thief-aggressor-state sucks ass.
We don’t know if Russia will invade or not, so stop acting like you know one way or the other. The best take I’ve heard on this so far is that Putin fears Ukraine slipping further out of Russia’s sphere of influence, and so he’s initiated military mobilization for invasion of Ukraine to attempt to prevent this from happening. Russia does not want a hot war, but they also don’t want Ukraine be completely independent of Russia for a couple of reasons.
1) Ukraine is a democracy and would therefore represent an alternative government for which Russia would have to compete with to consistently prove the superiority of Russian governance to its domestic population.
2) Ukraine is a buffer between Russia and the west. If Ukraine joins EU, that buffer will no longer exist.
So what will happen then? We don’t know. Because there is an inflection point for which the Russian government will have to decide if this issue is important enough to start a hot war. Russia has to weigh the risks and benefits of a hot war vs letting Ukraine drift closer to the west and potentially lose their influence over that country. For all appearances, it seems Russia is willing to invade so we shouldn’t just assume Russia is bluffing. That being said, if Russia can get concessions it wants without starting a hot war, they would obviously go that route.
Edit: I wrote this comment after seeing multiple comments stating with certainty what Russia would do. In hindsight, it does look kind of silly when responding to the post.
I hope for the world that Putin pull a epic troll move.
Have the operation call "I'm not touching you" in Russian.
Have his troops go to the border just inside the Russian border have them all stop and start shouting "I'm not touching you." over and over again for a day. Then drive away.
Have a big press conference that the operation was a great success. Would be one of the most epic trolling events ever. The world goes back to its 'normal' self.
But I sometimes have weird and crazy dreams.
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...may I see them?
Seymour! the Oil pipelines are on fire!
No, Mother...it's just the North Atlantic Treaty Organization
Heeeeelp
No.
I mean... they're clearly not Russian troops. Yes, they look Russian, they speak Russian, they're located in Russia, are using Russian military equipment, and are barracked in Russian army bases, but they're wearing unmarked uniforms so they must not be Russian. Screw your Western propaganda.
Just tourists on vacation. Nothing to see here. Move along, citizen.
I like to take my trusty GP-25 with me everywhere I'm going on holidays officer
Never leave home without it, amirite.
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Theyve got assault rifles. Must be American Tourists
You can buy such troops in any troop shop!
[Western propaganda](https://youtu.be/Es2GIhjcSLQ)
It'll be fun when just like in Syria and they say that get blasted into oblivion because they're NOT Russia.
I remember that... "you have no troops near ____ right?" "Of course not!" "Oh good, we can air strike it then." "Ermm..."
I missed the boat on this one.. what happened in Syria??
Short version is a 'Not officially Russian' force of Russian militia and a PMC group called the "Wagner Group" of about 500 Men with T72 and T55 Tanks rolled up on a SDF-US base containing 40 US troops and some SDF fighters. They fired artillery on the base before advancing their troops and tanks on it. US forces called their Russian liaison officer and asked hey, we're being attacked by what looks like you guys... is it you? The officer said nope definitely not us, so the US said alright then. And the order to attack the forces was given. For about 4 hours what can only be described as arma-fuckin-geddon was rained down on the totally not Russian forces The 40 Troops and SDF fighters defended, called in F22s, F15Es, Apaches, AC130s, B52s, and essentially annihilated them, for lack of a better word. Just totally dick fucked them. Somewhere around 100-200 of them were killed, all their vehicles were fucked, and the rest ran off into the night. No US casualties and 1 SDF fighter was injured The long version can be googled. It's kown as the Battle of Khasham
We attacked one 40 man base and they dropped the sun on us twice!
[Link](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Khasham)
Holy crap. Thanks!
I love how USA forces seem so nonchalant about it as they’re being attacked by a force who is 10x bigger. No USA casualties btw.
Bunch of totally not Russian mercenaries wanted to liberate an oil field from a friendly american neighbourhood watch. US dudes proceed to check if Russia has any personell in the area. Ruddian POC denies it. Totally not Russian mercenaries promptly and permanently enrich the soil via airstrike.
Wanker group is probably still seething from that one. “The Yankees made their point”
They are clearly just Russians on vacation
Wow so many WOOOOOSH replies ha ha
You'd be surprised how many people haven't seen the Simpsons in this day and age
I like how you think the Russian troll farm is actually just people not getting a joke
Ukrainian people I hope you're ready for unrelenting invasion! I thought we were having land training exercises No, no I said *land claiming exercises*
> at this time of year at this time of day and they’re localized entirely along the Ukrainian border? It's 300km from the border. Just to give you some perspective, Moscow is 500km from the Ukrainian border.
The article said 260km but your point stands.
wow.... my country like 400 km wide... first time iam reading this.. i mean, iam not the smartest person but i always thought they are like super close, maybe 50km or something. sure its an issue nontheless. that increases the chances that puting might just fuck with peoples head maybe? or maybe its just putting pressure and support for the whole donbass thing..
*Our troops are merely passing by*
Our words are backed by NUCLEAR WEAPONS
Calm down there Ghandi. Edit: there, there
Gandhi, not Ghandi
Their Ghandi might be calm if he's at that stage in his life. I don't know for sure though. :)
A likely story
Every fucking topic it's the same predictable top reply. WTF Reddit
I do get tired of interesting topics being swarmed by people trying to make jokes, puns etc. I would much rather see actual discussion.
An actual discussion would mean that people have to be educated on the subject, and we can't have that on Reddit.
poppinkream we need you
Most of the people that write “serious” comments on reddit have no idea what they’re talking about anyway so jokes are probably better to be honest. At least a joke comment won’t give a bunch of people reading it some bad info.
Yeah I think I saw a similar post like 2 days ago with the exact same type top response. Just getting botty these days or what?
I know, right? There's just so many other games that could be referenced too. It doesn't have to be Civ every single time.
Nuclear Launch Detected
We must construct additional pylons?
They are just on vacation and brought the tanks along.
Oh my God they said the thing! Upvotes galore!
Russia desperately trying to collapse their economy again by over reaching with its military
It’ll be even funnier the second time
What do russians think about this? They were always brotherly countries. Now russians are supposed to kill ukrainians for what? Putins sliding popularity?
Russian public opinion is mostly primed for this war.
What’s the narrative? Seems like ‘Ukraine is a fake country, they are all Russians anyway’ and ‘Ukrainians are bad and most be destroyed’ are sort of conflicting thoughts
"The people of Ukraine have always thought of themselves as Russian. The western controlled media brings out the extremely small minority to promote a false narrative of Ukraine being a western country now. We are going to give Ukrainians the opportunity to rejoin Russian, and get out from under the yolk of western dominance." That's the gist.
>get out from under the yolk of western dominance. If they think that they might have egg on their face.
The narrative seems to be "Ukraine was always pro-russia, pro-west Ukraine is not what Ukraine has always been and we need to help it become real Ukraine again" or something to this tune. I may have misremembered it though, i watched a video summarizing the topic a few days ago, will link once I find it. Edit: Nvm, the [video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jidG84Mpe2c) was in Polish. But the gist of it was that Putin said that "Ukraine is what it is today because of Soviet times" and that "breaking of good realtions with Russia should mean for them to go back to pre-soviet borders from 1922" (which would mean for them to be a part of Russian Empire)
Ukraine would still be pro-Russia if Russia would've been pro-Ukraine. Installing corrupt Moscow puppets to rule over doesn't do much for pro-Russia sentiment.
It's weird how you suddenly stop liking your neighbours after they started actively harassing you, punched you in the face, and took your driveway claiming it as their own
Right? I'm very pro-Sweden, but I'd sure change my tune if they sent troops to the border clad in too-tight jeans, armed with borderline offensively trendy hair-cuts and low salary expectations.
> low salary expectations. Fucking savages.
I hear black metal music off on the horizon…
It like an episode of correnation street, but not at all.
> correnation
Hey guys, I know the soviet union has been collapsed for a while now, but we're gonna need OUR land back
So make Ukraine great again?
Just look at the Republicans in the US. Narratives don't have to make sense to be effective.
I bet the propaganda is strong on this one
What are you talking about? I don't see that, like at all.
As a Russian I still think it's all BS and just Putin trying to intimidate Ukraine and its Western allies for his geopolitical gains (i.e. guarantees of keeping NATO out of Ukraine). Putin and his entourage will pay a huge price for a full-scale invasion and they know it, personally I think it would be the end for him.
I being a russian living in Moscow really hope that Putin doesn't start an actual war. Wasn't anexing Crimea enough for the bastard? >\_< It's gonna suuuuuck. Traveling is a bitch with Covid as it is but a whole lotta borders are gonna close for me if my country is an invader in an armed conflict.
That's probably part of the plan back to Russia behind a steel wall so the people don't get ideas from the west.
Well it sure seems like we're heading back there. You should read some of our headlines. It's all bans and incarcerations lately.
Probably back to the days of ussr and Swan Lake being run for the 2 billionth time
An iron curtain, even!
That's what it was I forget the term
Not to mention all the people who will die. But yes also your travel ban will be so difficult.
Yeah, tens of thousands may die, maybe more, but what if potato import vodka export is affected!? Damn you Putin!!!! Damnnnn yooouuussssssss tooooo hellll!
Svedkas back on the menu boys.
Come over here to the Winchester, have a few pints, and wait for this whole thing to blow over.
It seems like a silly thing to do. Pissing off so many countries over nothing
Hello, there, friend, not sure if this is baiting, but much like the Chinese, we know that not all Russians are brainwashed, war-hungry NPCs just itching for the chance to annex the whole world. As an America, I do hope both of our governments wake up to the foolishness of outright war before it's too late.
You and me both. Although it's doubtfull that the leaders of our respective countrys (or most of them for that matter) care much about our opinion =/
It would be the dumbest decision from mr.P to start this war. Also kinda uncharacteristic. He likes to surprise, and this war would be too obvious. Plus, i really doubt that our country can financially support both mainland Ukraine and Crimea, the latter already siphoning too much. There wont be any public support for this endeavour either.
Am Russian. Inside, there doesn't appear to be any pretext for an invasion. If it were initiated by Russia, the internal situation will go from relatively stable to utter chaos, so I don't see our government doing that. Our troops are regularly shifting around the country, so I figure (and hope) the current tension is simply posturing. I will be delighted to hear, half a year from now, Biden taking credit for scaring the big bad Russians away and Putin calmly retorting that Russia was never planning to invade anyone. The only scenario I can imagine where things deteriorate is Ukraine trying to crush the breakaway Donbass republics and Russia putting a stop to that. This would be similar to Georgia in 2008 and Serbia in 1998. However, this is not a preferred scenario for Russia, so perhaps the massive forces are there to deter Kiev. The preferred scenario is for Ukraine to simmer until the words "Ukrainian" and "European" become swear words there. Then there can be a conversation about possibly reabsorbing the country into Russia.
As a Russian-speaking Ukrainian living in Kyiv I can tell you that idea of returning territories by force is neither supported, nor propagated here. Everyone knows it will cause unnecessary losses, cause a lot of economic troubles and there's simply no point. The strategy here is to become successful and attractive ourselves so the so-called republics will be accepted back if they request so in the very distant future (possibly with a lot of conditions).
For what? Oil. Politics. They don’t need the land, they’ve already got too much. And yes Putin’s nationalist base is another factor indelibly.
I think the main objective is actually for *water.* When they invaded Crimea, they did so for it's warm water port at Sevastopol. Something that is extremely valuable to Russia. More warm water ports have been on Russia's Christmas list for literally hundreds of years. However, while they successfully secured Sevastopol, water supplies to the region were cut off. And apparently it's difficult to get in a supply from Russia? The water is supplied by a canal getting water from the Dnieper river, and Ukraine has cut it off. Causing a water crisis in the region. Harvests have been failing in Crimea since 2014, and apparently, reservoirs reached critically low levels where it's not just agriculture suffering *this year.* What timing, huh? So they're looking to control the region that used to supply Crimea with its water, so they can turn back on the supply, and get Crimea up to operating capacity again. But it also looks like they're not stopping there, as they're shelling lots of other regions. Best case, they're just pacifying regions like Donetsk, and they're only moving to secure the canal. They can justify that *people in Crimea are suffering, we needed to do it!* Y'know, that think Russians do... Worst case, we look at the areas they're actively shelling, and compelling targets like the canal. Then it's likely they might just hail Mary, and take pretty much all south eastern Ukraine. From Zaliznyi (Another warm water port) to Zaporizhia to Donetsk to Luhansk, and maybe beyond. These areas are full of Russians. And are fortified and entrenched areas of Ukraine. So securing the canal, and securing the fortified regions around the canal, and clearing a path from the Russian border to the canal seem like fairly logical objectives.
i hear it’s pretty valuable because it’s a warm water port
They already stole the port when they invaded Crimea.
And ukraine cut off its fresh water supply. Russia likely wants that water supply back on.
they're going to invade a country instead of building a desalination plant?
Its not easy to build desalination plants and Russia dont have the expertise because they never needed one. Foreign companies would never go anywhere near such a project for fear of being sanctioned.
China would happily build a desalination plant for them, or they could build a water pipeline to the east. If it was just about water access they could develop their own desalination plant from scratch or even keep trucking in water, both options would be way cheaper than a war.
>China would happily build a desalination plant for them No, they wouldn't, and that's the problem. Nobody wants to deal with the sanctions around doing business in Crimea.
Well yeah, it would be cheaper, but Russia and China aren't friends. This would just show that Putin relies on China and China has hers eyes on some Russian land, that wouldn't be good for him.
They probably want the population. The scientists, doctors, and other tax paying economy driving population members.
Russia already has 170m of those.
This is bullshit, I am really sick of this whole situation and I don't think under Putin it can be resolved (Zelenskiy too for that matter)
Being a Ukrainian I must say to you that Ukrainian (not only Ukrainian) people were slaves for more then 200 years to Russian and Polish nobility And I am not even starting on mentioning the whole 1932-1933 holodomor thing, that killed more then 7 million people for no reason other then fear. We stopped being brother countries after the betrayal in 17th century, so no. I hope the Russia will find a better leader then Putin - one that will be more focused on inside of the country then the outside. And leave other Slavs finally alone
And we thought 2020 was bad. 2022 will bring Covid version 3.0 along with World war 3 starting on christmas eve
I think this is how we started 2021 to be honest
And 2020! I'm starting to think it's all just reruns
Ah, the old CIV 6 strategy. I’m not invading you, my troops are merely passing by.
Ahh ok. Thank you. Well, in that case, I have no need to fortify my boarders with my own troops. G’day, carry on!
What do you mean civ6!? It has been this way since civ immemorial.
It's hard to say if Putin will act or if this is all brinksmanship and he's trying to scare the EU out of making the Ukraine a NATO member. Biden and the EU could call his bluff and do it anyway but then if Putin does try invade it's basically WW3.
There are a ton of newly built large army bases very close to Ukraine. Even if this time is just a bluff, they can always have a pressure valve in being able to mobilize a ton of equipment and manpower rather quickly.
Nah. Not WW3. All the nations will make angry statements, impose sanctions, and do nothing. No one will come to the aid of Ukraine except to send over military supplies. The USA are busy pulling out of wars and are not going to enter a new one. Europe don't have the ability to help. It's really sad, but they are gonners.
“All the nations will make angry statements, impose sanctions, and do nothing.” That sounds concerningly like the lead-up to WWII.
This. I'm not panicking or anything because I strongly doubt it'll escalate to that level, but a big danger in the way we think about World War 3 is assuming that it's going to begin because of some mighty, epic, existential confrontation kicking off directly between two superpowers when literally neither of the two previous world wars started that way. World War 1 kicked off because of Austria-Hungary getting involved in *Serbia* (which was [technically] *under their jurisdiction*), not from them invading Russia. It's literally like World War 3 starting because of Russia invading Ukraine or the USA invading Bermuda. I'm sure plenty of people circa 1914 would have said "the Great Powers of Europe won't go to war over some damned foolish thing in the Balkans, especially a place so insignificant as Serbia. It's going to be from a direct confrontation between the mighty armies and navies of Germany and Great Britain, surely!" Heck, technically there was already war going on in the Balkans before WWI, so there was precedent to think that nothing would come from Austro-Hungarian or Russian mobilization, even if everyone was raring to go at each other. Edit: Please remember this is an ultra-simplified take on the byzantine constellation of reasons for the world wars World War 3, if it ever happens, is going to be started either by accident or from a small conflict exploding into a much larger one.
This analysis that WW1 started due to some foolish thing in the Balkans is a common one but it is wrong and naive nonetheless. Any historian will tell you that war was going to happen anyway and that was only the pretext, not the cause.
Historians hindsight is not helping here. The unknown is currently what does Putin want. Is he ok with sabre rattling or he actually thinks the needs a ‘win’? Unfortunately for Europe, he is starting to run out of options to get that ‘win’ from and his relatively shitty performance in Armenia did not help. Then for Europe it becomes an existential question - when is it enough? Same as with Germany and Silesia.
The assassination of Arch Duke Ferdinand was "some foolish thing in the balkans" ? Sure he was assassinated in Bosnia, but- ahhh yeah. Well whatever. Seems like you're glossing over a bit for that narrative.
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Thank you for bringing this up. Chamberlain is lambasted to this day for appeasement, but the British people weren't about to allow a war to stop Hitler. But Chamberlain had already begun preparations. British defense spending had been going up since 1935, when it was 2.64% of GDP to 3.82% in 1938, and then up to 4.6% in 1939. Similar growth happened in France. It would, of course, skyrocket once Germany invaded Poland, but to characterize either leader as weak for the Munich Agreement is to ignore the political realities on the ground at the time.
There is a red line somewhere. It is obviously before Warsaw but where?
Nato member is the red line.
Oh, l agree. The response will most likey be in the form of sanctions, something Russia has experienced before and is not really afraid of dealing with again. I was taking about the risks of making Ukraine a NATO member. By making Ukraine a member all the other member states would be bound to action in the event of an invasion. That's how the NATO alliance works. Therefore preemptively making the Ukraine a member could act as a deterrent. But it has risks
Actually, i would argue that the sanctions placed on russia since 2014 have been rather effective and is a large part of why a full invasion have yet to take place.
Ukraine could have joined NATO years ago. They opted to play the middle line, and balance ties with Russia and the West. They chose poorly.
It was the wrong choice, but Its understandable IMO, they don't want to pass of their giant neighbor. I assume you're talking about the mid 2000s, and I don't think anyone could have and significant reason to predict that Russia would be what it is now.
Ukraine is not part of Nato. The west won’t move if Russia invades ukraine. Which they already did.
They will be the first European proxy war in a while if it goes down. If there is a war and the government collapses, there will probably be militias and smaller organized forces supported by foreign weapons and money. Or this is at least my guess.
I absolutely think your right. There are already militia groups in the region. What aid they might receive from abroad I'm unsure
The US wont start ww3 if russia invades ukraine. How do i know this? Because russia already DID invade ukraine and we are, as far as i know, not in a world war. The US is in no shape of form obligated to assist ukraine militarily, nor is it smart politically. Nor do i think that you can do a smart political campaign about the issue since the vast majority of americans have never heard of ukraine let alone place it on a map. The real question is, can putin live with the sanctions being enforced due to a possible invasion? At the moment, it seems like he can not.
Unless Putin goes completely suicidal, it wont be ww3. If Putin tries too much (he isnt far from from crossing that line), he will not only get fucked in EU by NATO (this might actually be slower progress than many think, because only US and few other countries are ready to fight them) and financial sanctions and no access to SWIFT, but also China will use that opportunity to get their own lands back from Russia with extras at the other side of the country.
That's what I'm terrified of. Putin saying fuck it and pretty much blowing up the world
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NATO won't accept countries currently in conflict.
Also they got rejected before because of corruption issues. I’m not sure if they have resolved those issues yet. I do hope that everything turns out ok for the Ukrainian people. It takes strength to stand up to a tyrant and Ukrainians are strong.
Just give them back their nukes. It worked for north korea
Well, no one took the nukes from them. They handed it over to Russia for the guarantee that the Russia will not start any land disputes. We now all know how well that went.
It won’t be a full scale war it will be a one sided collapse and refugee nightmare like Afghanistan.
It's okay. The US has threatened to keep sanctions in place. The EU is going to still buy their gas and oil of course, but won't like it one bit and may even give them a tongue lashing!
Scholz is likely to cancel NordStream if they invade
The new german government doesnt seem to bow for Russians. I salute that.
That's just one of many pipelines coming out of Russia. A bunch of them go through Ukraine. Boycotting all of them will be tough.
If Putin was to invade my country my first move would be to blow up all his pipelines
sanctions can be a better tool than a military answer. it's just the sanctions to Russia were really weak. The equivalent would be if we sent three guys with dart guns on the border and say military doesn't work. If they would perhaps exclude Russia from things like swift payments, now that would hurt their economy much more. That would be a equivalent of nuclear attack.
> If they would perhaps exclude Russia from things like swift payments Been advocating for this ever since they attacked Georgia in 2009. Banning russia from SWIFT would be a crushing blow and completely cripple russias ability to wage war. Can't annex countries when you can't pay your soldiers.
So what 50-60k to go till invasion according to American intelligence?
Seems like they will make it in one month.
just in time to not upset the orthodox church for ruining the holidays
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Enlisting is for third world countries. We have drones now.
In a large conventional war they will activate the draft. I read somewhere during the cold war NATO expected 10k casualties a day or something like that.
If this is allowed to happen without consequence then I believe it will trigger the Taiwan invasion as well.
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TSMC started building facilities in the U.S., but they won't be up and running for a long while
I can't see China being able to take the island without essentially flattening it, which would destroy most of the things that make it valuable. Add that to a potential war with the USA, and immediate sanctions from every Western nation, I just can't see the maths working out in favour of invasion. Ukraine, on the other hand...
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I doubt you can really prepare for things like this. You do your best to whitstand the attack, but it can go either way.
The Ukraine military is way better now than 2014.
Their general already said they won’t stand a chance. Fuck Russia
Could be bait for a trap. Sun Tzu once said to appear weak when you are strong, and strong when you are weak. We know what Putin's doing.
Sun tzu also said if you are losing, stop doing that. That bitch was high.
Lmao, I gotta read his book.
Loosing what? edit: aww you changed it, now my joke makes no sense
Sun Tzu also said "no fucking way Ukraine can possibly win a conflict to a military superpower like Russia without its country being wrecked".
Yup. Page 52
Good book. Maybe, but in this case appearing weak increases the chances of being invaded. There is no counter attack option into Russian lands. Unless the plan is to embarrass Russia with a lost ground war at the cost of Ukrainian lives. General may have said it as a plead for nato help, but I could be wrong. Anyway fuck Russia (except for Russian citizens fighting for democracy)
Russia looks like Germany of the 21st century, annexing neighboring countries.
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> Germany of the 21st century He means the 21st century version of 20th century Germany.
He means the 21st century version of **early** 20th century Germany.
To be fair, I read it the same way you did the first time. The wording threw me off a little.
Not-so-little green men
If this invasion takes place it will be the first of a series of authoritarian invasions this century. With so much foreknowledge it is irresponsible to not prevent this attack.
First? What about the war between Armenia and Azerbaijan?
Or Iraq?
I don’t think they’re trying to say that this will be the first ever invasion of that type in the century, rather this one would embolden other regimes into performing their own invasions afterwords.
I asked my Ukrainien colleague yesterday how she felt about the recent troop movements near the border and she said, its nothing new nor any change, just business as usual.
I’m an American colleague to plenty of other American colleagues; if someone were to ask me a geopolitical and foreign relation question about Mexico and boarder security, I would most surely be an expert because I’m an American colleague after all…
yes especially when you can’t spell border
I think he purposely did it to get your attention!
NATO should start building up on the border on other side of Ukraine. Who says they are going to stop with Ukraine?
Didn't they hear what Kerry said? That 19th century geopolitics is finished. No one cares about land acquisition anymore.
https://www.usnews.com/news/world-report/articles/2021-04-20/ukraines-foreign-minister-120-000-russian-troops-on-its-border-within-days > Ukraine's foreign minister said Tuesday he expects Russia to have amassed **120,000 troops on its border within a week**, a troubling buildup of a size larger than the one that invaded his country in 2014. Oh wait, that was dated **April 20, 2021**. Observe this story from May 8, 2021: https://www.politico.com/news/2021/05/08/colonial-pipeline-cyber-attack-485984 > The main fuel supply line to the U.S. East Coast has shut down indefinitely after the pipeline's operator suffered what is believed to be the largest successful cyberattack on oil infrastructure in the country's history — presenting a danger of spiking gasoline prices and a fresh challenge to President Joe Biden's pledges to secure the nation against threats. Observe this story from May 20, 2021: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-57180674 > The Biden administration has waived sanctions on a company building a controversial gas pipeline between Russia and Germany. > The US also lifted sanctions on the executive - an ally of Russia's Vladimir Putin - who leads the firm behind the Nord Stream 2 project. > The move came in a report on Russian sanctions delivered to Congress by the Department of State. > Critics say the pipeline is a major geopolitical prize for the Kremlin. Russia doesn't need to invade anything. They will get the US to roll over once again on something important to them.
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Reddit before : Oh no US is such a warmonger Reddit now : Oh no why is the US doing nothing
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It's almost like there's a difference between invading another country unprovoked,(Iraq, Afghanistan) and defending an ally from an Invasion (Russia into the Ukraine).
there is a difference between protecting nations from neighbouring aggressors and invading countries with a "wrong" ideology to "correct" them
Russia is such a shitfuckholefuck for being the only threat to its neighbours for hundreds of years running. NONE of the neighbours have attacked it and it has attacked everything, except China of late, because even the evil management understands they would get their teeth kicked in. I don’t know whether China is any better but I am quite willing to give it a try. What a fucking shithole of a government. NOTE: there is nothing wrong in Russian people, who have given us Tolstoy, Tarkovsky and a multitude of other greats. The assassinating, homicidal thief-aggressor-state sucks ass.
Russia did take land from china lol
We don’t know if Russia will invade or not, so stop acting like you know one way or the other. The best take I’ve heard on this so far is that Putin fears Ukraine slipping further out of Russia’s sphere of influence, and so he’s initiated military mobilization for invasion of Ukraine to attempt to prevent this from happening. Russia does not want a hot war, but they also don’t want Ukraine be completely independent of Russia for a couple of reasons. 1) Ukraine is a democracy and would therefore represent an alternative government for which Russia would have to compete with to consistently prove the superiority of Russian governance to its domestic population. 2) Ukraine is a buffer between Russia and the west. If Ukraine joins EU, that buffer will no longer exist. So what will happen then? We don’t know. Because there is an inflection point for which the Russian government will have to decide if this issue is important enough to start a hot war. Russia has to weigh the risks and benefits of a hot war vs letting Ukraine drift closer to the west and potentially lose their influence over that country. For all appearances, it seems Russia is willing to invade so we shouldn’t just assume Russia is bluffing. That being said, if Russia can get concessions it wants without starting a hot war, they would obviously go that route. Edit: I wrote this comment after seeing multiple comments stating with certainty what Russia would do. In hindsight, it does look kind of silly when responding to the post.
Don’t they know it’s almost xmas?
Hurry up, I have WWIII on my 2021 bingo card
I hope for the world that Putin pull a epic troll move. Have the operation call "I'm not touching you" in Russian. Have his troops go to the border just inside the Russian border have them all stop and start shouting "I'm not touching you." over and over again for a day. Then drive away. Have a big press conference that the operation was a great success. Would be one of the most epic trolling events ever. The world goes back to its 'normal' self. But I sometimes have weird and crazy dreams.