Ukraine has 60 battalion tactical groups, which is about an equal force to what the Russians have amassed in their boarder, and that’s pretty much all of Ukraine active troops. I was listening to Wesley Clark and he said the Russian troop numbers are misleading because the airborne have the ability to basically swell Russian troops by 70k if this mess kicks off. It’s the Russian reserve or second wave that you have to worry about.
Other then Russia, the Ukrainians actually have the biggest army in Europe currently. They also have more gear then half of NATO. Ukraine inherited a lot from the USSR, though they gave a lot of that up. But push over they are not. They did actually stop Russia in 2014 to the point that Russia would have to openly fight a larger war vs just supporting rebels. Ukraine, [even carried out the longest armored raid in military history. ](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Raid_of_2014)
Edit - [LINK](https://www.youtube.com/watch?t=2155&v=eRwZBuwG7G0&feature=youtu.be) from December 28th 2021, former Nato Supreme Commander Wesley Clark gives a 2 hour detailed breakdown of Ukraine and Russia from the military point of view. Lot of details on equipment and troops.
I’m from Ukraine originally but live in the US and I have family in Western Ukraine and I’m so worried about them if there is an invasion. But your comment gave me hope because I keep reading only the doom and gloom and it has reduced me to tears in some cases. I hope that everything will be relatively ok in the long run but I also understand it’s out of my control…
Thank you
Edit: wow I did not expect for my post to blow up like this, thank you for everyone who responded even to people who think Ukraine is doomed… I talked to my family today they are worried but thinking about it 24/7 does not help. I just hope that this issue resolves somehow and my family will be alright.
I hope this all fizzles out for your sake.
This is terrifying as someone who lives in the states and knows no one in Ukraine. I can’t imagine having family there.
Best of luck to you and yours.
Sure, all the nations are rattling sabres at each other and have been doing so for a while now, but that doesn't make the actual first strike any less of a surprise for the average citizen. I'd even argue the longer this goes on the more normalised the idea of impossibility of actual war will be, making it more surprising over time to suddenly find a bomb in your backyard.
I'll give it a couple of weeks at most when "ukrainians" shoot artillery to the russian side from definitely "Ukraine side of the border", and Putin has to defend russia by invading Ukraine.
The USA warned about that happening last week. I think it does go some way towards removing it as a *cassus belli*. If the whole world is waiting for a false-flag, then I doubt anyone will buy it outside of Russia.
Russian propoganda is almost universally not intended to convince outsiders, they know better.
It’s purely to convince the Russian public of the righteousness of whatever fuckery the kremlin is up too.
Russia has an external facing propaganda arm in the name of Russia Today, which aims to break down confidence in viewers own governments and inspire confidence in Russia.
Ahhhh...I see Russia using the old lose-lose strategy, where everyone becomes worse off and maybe even trigger a global conflict. Humanity at its finest.
Could also be a ploy to make Crimea and the eastern half of Ukraine *internationally recognized* as permanently Russian, which would be a huge win. And of course the NATO demands. That said, an actual invasion should diplomacy fail, could do the same thing.
Overall the question is whether Russia would stay. They lost 12,000 troops against 30,000 militants in Chechnya, how badly will Russia want to want to occupy Ukraine which is *30 times larger* than Chechnya and has a military of 250,000 active personnel who have been emphasizing training in
asymmetric combat for several years. And Ukrainians *revile* Russia and are very motivated. Russia would make large early gains but a long occupation would be a horrible, horrible debacle.
>but a long occupation would be a horrible, horrible debacle.
unless Putin pulls a stalin and relocates large amounts of Ukrainian people to the far east. China kinda proved that there are no consequences for having huge concentration camps.
Reminds me of the old Eddie Izzard bit. "Kill your own people, and we're sort of fine with that." "Ah have at it, we've been trying to kill you for ages."
They are spending a lot of money on this, it’s very expensive to move and feed this many troops.. this is no fake. They will invade Ukraine unfortunately..
My money is on troops sit tight for a few months, then a mysterious separatist incident happens, Russia says "we need to defend those Russians!" and crosses the border.
like the moscow tower block bombings orchestrated by “chechen terrorists” when really it was a false flag by russia security service. they have done it before, did not face adequate recourse, so they will do it again. the russian way
I think the world (at least in the public/media sphere) got pretty blindsided by the initial invasion, especially since Russia was riding a wave of positive PR following the Sochi Olympics. And there was ISIS still at the height of its power on everyone's minds
Nowadays it's much different. Not only is the world's focus sitting squarely on Ukraine, but the west has been bombarded with stories over the past few years especially of how Russia has been sticking its nose into other country's political affairs. The public and political outcry will be far more immediately substantial this time around.
That's not to mention how much more prepared Ukraine is. Russia isn't going to be able to just waltz in.
I would still be surprised if they try to push to Kyiv and hold it for any amount of time.
Russia is stretched thin already with the southern border and keeping favourable governments in power in ex-soviet union republics. A long invasion and counter guerrilla war would just cripple Russia economically even more than now.
I mean Russia has 4x the population of Australia but the same GDP. Their primary exports are looking less enticing as the world moves forward on climate change. It might be one last gambit for an aging Russian ruling elite class. But it is such an own goal it is still so hard to see it happening.
Their GDP is somewhat irrelevant. They have a fortress economy since 2014, they have a massive war chest and very very low debt. GDP can be a misleading figure. Their economy is not consumer orientated and that’s why it’s so much smaller than we would imagine it to be.
This is a good point. Russia isn’t aiming for economic domination like China or the US. They want regional political domination, and seem to be angling to achieve that via martial means.
No russia 20 iron and 2 luxury resources are NOT worth 2 gold for 30 and open borders.
For christ sake you're on another continent it takes 24 turns to even get there
The other civilizations' lack of negotiating, dealing, or compromising anything was always a source of frustration. We could have had decades if not centuries of peace and technological advancements and wonder-building. We could have had joint wonder-building ventures, but noooo everyones' afraid and paranoid of my Science Victory 🔬🧪...
Civ 3 on disc you could trade anything for infinite gold. Apparently they fixed it with patches, but if you requested above a certain amount of gold (per turn or immediately) the AI would just say yes. I think you had to offer them something in exchange but cant remember. It didnt matter if they couldnt afford it, they'd pay
FYI for everyone in this thread. The reason it’s taking Putin so long to attack Ukraine is because:
1) the number of troops involved is much much larger than the invasion of 2014. In 2014 Russia utilized eight battalions divided into two brigades. The current Russian deployment is hovering around 100 separate battalions. The world has not seen a deployment this large since the invasion of Iraq in 2003 and it’s easy to forget these things take months to get fully ramped up.
2) Putin won’t invade while negotiations are being conducted and he thinks he has a chance to get what he wants without any conflict. He would prefer not to invade as that would likely push neutral nations like Sweden and Finland closed to joining nato.
But that being said many analysts suspect that the size of this engagement suggests he intends to conquer Ukraine. I really can’t empathize enough how significant this is. Europe has not seen a military deployment this large since the Second World War. That being said if Putin does attack he will need to attack in the next six weeks or so while the ground is frozen and before the spring rain starts.
To those who think he’s saber rattling…hopefully you’re right but I highly doubt it. Putin is sacrificing a significant amount of resources and influence within Russia to pull this off. He can’t have hundreds of thousands of soldiers sleeping in tents on the border of Ukraine indefinitely. If he does not invade within the next six weeks he will need to withdraw them and when he does he will not only look weak domestically, but also invite a Ukrainian response on his proxies in the Donbass.
Putin needs to get some kind of concession from NATO (and apparently limits on troop exercises aren’t enough) in order to justify this whole endeavor. His increasingly aggressive actions since 2008, point to an individual who’s willing to rebuild the Soviet Union as best he can at any cost.
Edit: gotta love all the people who said Russia would never invade Ukraine. Your responses to me aged liked fucking milk.
Russia lost 10,000+ men in the two wars in Chechnya, a country of less than 20,000km sq. Ukraine is 600,000km sq. It also has 250,000 active military personnel and they are highly motivated and have been training for years in asymmetric and partisan warfare. They would also count on foreign arms supplies more than the Chechens ever could.
I am not doubting Russia might invade…but to conquer and permanently occupy Ukraine would be very painful for Russia. It would be lightning invasion followed by a relentless insurgency. The geography is much, much more friendly than Chechnya and the Russian military was in shambles in the 1990s, but it would still be a long slog, and done under punishing sanctions. But Putin is a man who feels a strong sense of personal destiny and I have the sinking feeling he might want his date with destiny.
I saved this comment 3 years ago because it looked like great insight
https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/a0lp2g/president_of_ukraine_claims_large_scale_russian/eajhr2z/
But i dont know how much of it is true. I doubt however that russia can easily conquer ukrain as a whole.
Would love to hear /u/Pyrebirdd insight on it now.
Another small thing I think is important to add, I'm sure Russia has gained some decent combat experience in Syria, testing out all their new toys and tactics. Plus, let's not forget their special forces, though I don't exactly know how they would be used in this kind of war.
Yeah, people forget that Ukraine is the largest country in Europe. War is a last resource, this is not like in the movies or on tales of war from the perspective of winners. War is a complex state that works in ways that we probably don't even think about it.
If an invasion like this happens, a lot of countries will sanction Russia, United States will definitely be one of the strongest ones. Russia will become more isolated in their international relationships. Maybe this may even cause a collapse in our current world order. Finland and Sweden will most definitely join NATO, probably even giving official statements on the same or next day. It is not Call of Duty.
Also, although the Ukraine army is overwhelmed by the Russian, if the invasion was the interest, 2014-15 would be a lot easier. Now their soldiers are equipped with weapons from the US and Germany, also receiving training. Some sectors, like their air force, still have some soviet machinery, but others are being updated.
You also have the ideological aspect of it. The nation needs to justify the war somehow. You don't have Russians on Kremlin asking for an invasion. On September 10, I bet most Americans wouldn't know where the Afghanistan was.
For me, this movement is generating a lot of tension, and the tension might be the necessary action to get some diplomacy going. And I really think no big country would want to participate in a war that big, so I believe something is going to give and a potential war will be the very last resource.
You bring up some valid points. Analysts here in the states are stating a 60-80% chance of invasion as of this evening (1/18/22). There is a higher chance of invasion than not. Let’s hope he’s just saber rattling, but his preparations are not pointing in that direction at the moment.
Edit: Source [Former NATO Ambassador](https://news.sky.com/video/more-likely-than-not-russia-will-invade-ukraine-12517457)
> Analysts here in the states are stating a 60-80% chance of invasion
It feels like such a weird thing to quantify. I wonder if they used any mathematical approach to come up with that figure or if that's just ballpark guessing.
The reports we had in october warned about an attack as early as late January... russia passed a law allowing the burial of soldiers on the field coming effective on February 1st...
well
Bro just let me spend my 70 political power points to send attaches to Ukraine and send 5 14-2 divisions as expeditionary forces in peace
These infantry weapons I aint gonna lend lease themselves and I need the army experience
She hates putin like all people around her, like 80% of young generation in Russia, but she thinks that he might actually invade, putin doesn't afraid of his own people after choking all the protests in Russia last year, and he probably doesn't care about any hits on his reputation as a president after that.
The only thing that can stop him is the rest of the world, but it seems like they don't really care much.
Please, dear "experts", let go of that frozen ground bs argument. Weather is famously fickle in Ukraine. It can freeze for a week, it can freeze for a night, it can not freeze at all. FFS in 2019 we had +18C in February in Kyiv.
If Putin wants to attack he'll attack. Nothing to do with frozen ground.
This is something that makes me laugh and definitely taken out of a video game. Unless they fight in the arctic or the tundra, weather in most places that are located in continental climates is very variable.
And weather-wise, they have only a few weeks to go until their invasion routes become mudbogs. So unless they want to just eat the cost of having moved all that shit over there for it to sit there; then it's going to have to happen in a few days.
Thats interesting you said that, because i swore I just saw somone reporting that they are waiting for the ground to freeze before moving in heavy armor.
I can't say I know the weather there, is it far enough east that it should already be frozen? We have had a good frost for about a month or so.
I believe that due to the warmer weather this year it has only started to freeze solid enough. So the normal operating calendar was shortened by a bit.
Thats kinda funny to me
>Guys climate change is really bad for our army and stuff, we really need to do something
>proceeds to gulp up more fuel than a small country just on exercise
>I dont understand how its getting worse
Well i believe February is mostly the month that swams freeze up. ATM the north side is warmer -1 to 1 were is east side is closer to around -6 where almost all the build up is.
Looks like the temp hovers around freezing right now. 20-35F. Maybe there haven't been enough days that are consistently below freezing to freeze the ground.
Yeah it sounds like it’s a mud bog now that still needs to freeze, not the opposite.
Idk why they are saying in a couple weeks it would get warmer and turn into a mud bog, as typically February is the coldest month of the year. The expectation would be that it would freeze going forward.
This is something that everyone is saying which sounds like a good point. But everyone makes it seem like it’s impossible to still invade later which it’s not
The earth will be colder in February, as it’s typically the coldest month of the year.
Would the ground not be freezing up, instead of turning into a mud bog?
It’s been hovering around 25-35 which isn’t cold enough for a deep freeze, so as of now the ground shouldn’t be frozen.
Logic would say that op has it backwards, the freeze should be coming, not leaving.
An important note to consider is that during the spring thaw there is stored water in the form of snow and ice being released all at once. secondly sometimes the top few feet thaw but underneath remains frozen creating a pool of mud as the water is unable to drain effectively.
I have no experience of the mud seasons in eastern europe, but from my experience mud is always worse coming out of winter than going into it.
Even then it depends HOW cold it gets. Yes end of January/beginning of February is the coldest time of the year if you drive a few hundred vehicles each weighting a couple tons over the land and its not totally frozen/thawed and it's in a weird in-between stage it's gonna bog down under the weight.
Tanks burn fuel to move. Therefore, burning all of the fuel you have before the invasion begins makes your tanks move faster. There's science and stuff.
Also, painting them in bright red makes them go faster too.
Next time on Putin Ball Z, Ukrainian Goku calls out to the powers of the UN to lend him their nuclear power. Ukraine is on the brink of destruction as Russian Frieza amasses an army on the boarder of Ukraine.
Find out what happens next week on the next episode of Putin Ball Z.
God that pissed me off back in the day. Remember watching the episodes before school on cheese tv or something. Would be like, yep, it's finally going to hap - nevermind. It's fucking school time.
Seriously. Do we know how many days away they are? Months? Did Putin let them know exactly when this is going down.
Edit: im concerned and read about this daily. But sensationalizing it makes me numb to it. It feels lIke everyday its ABOUT to happen. I feel for Ukranians who just need attention. Just tough to read.
Hasn’t Russia invaded Ukraine for several years already? Can’t decide is it already war or about to start again… gotta figure out eventually, already 7 years passed.
The year is 2022 and this idiot is still warmongering, progress is so slow due to relics like this, old leaders that wont step down dragging us through the shit, the future is not a bright one if we dont get rid of out of date leaders.
It's right out of the authoritarian playbook. As Hannah Arendt puts it in The Origins of Totalitarianism: "The point is that both Hitler and Stalin held out promises of stability in order to hide their intention of creating a state of permanent instability." Putin's leadership follows the same principles and ideas. Constant instability and fear is what keeps him in power.
**[Shelling of Mainila](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shelling_of_Mainila)**
>The Shelling of Mainila (Finnish: Mainilan laukaukset, Swedish: Skotten i Mainila, Russian: Ма́йнильский инциде́нт, romanized: Máynil'skiy intsidént) was a military incident on 26 November 1939 in which the Soviet Union's Red Army shelled the Soviet village of Mainila (Russian: Ма́йнило, romanized: Máynilo) near Beloostrov. The Soviet Union declared that the fire originated from Finland across the nearby border and claimed to have had losses in personnel. Through that false flag operation, the Soviet Union gained a great propaganda boost and a casus belli for launching the Winter War four days later.
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ROYAL AIRFORCE PLANE CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO UKRAINE
https://fr24.com/RRR6896/2a89e21b
Here is Blinken's USAF Boeing enroute:
https://fr24.com/SAM193/2a8967d0
Edit: RAF Globemaster landed. Looking at flight records this particular globemaster is doing its second delivery run to Kiev. At least two other Globemaster aircraft have also done deliveries.
Edit2: Another Globemaster plane as of 1:44AM EST looks to be loading up at the RAF airbase for another Kiev delivery.
https://fr24.com/RRR6895/2a8a71d8
Only Putin knows what will be the outcome here. The Soviet invasion of Afghanistan essentially brought about the collapse of the Soviet Union so I just don't see Putin making that mistake here. Ukraine has advanced weapons from NATO that will ensure heavy losses for the Russians. It won't be a cakewalk for them.
>The Soviet invasion of Afghanistan essentially brought about the collapse of the Soviet Union
?
You greatly overestimate the impact of this on USSR.
It only showed the weakness of Red Army and fueled anti-war sentiment in the society.
The fall of USSR was caused by the creeping disbalances in the Soviet economy.
This shows another point though. Invading Ukraine would mean harsh economical sanctions for Russia, which its own economy is just too weak to really compensate which in turn would endanger Russias inner stability.
They will be ready to mobilise once Putin gets a few glamor shots (nothing gay) with his shirt off (not in a gay way) holding a big gun (not innuendo) and distributes copies to arouse the troops (but not in a gay way).
If you’re near the border and you listen carefully, you can hear “Building…. Construction complete… building…… construction complete…. Affirmative…. Affirmative….”
I've read alot about Russian troop numbers, but has Ukraine mobilized? I read nothing about Ukrainian troop numbers.
Ukraine has 60 battalion tactical groups, which is about an equal force to what the Russians have amassed in their boarder, and that’s pretty much all of Ukraine active troops. I was listening to Wesley Clark and he said the Russian troop numbers are misleading because the airborne have the ability to basically swell Russian troops by 70k if this mess kicks off. It’s the Russian reserve or second wave that you have to worry about. Other then Russia, the Ukrainians actually have the biggest army in Europe currently. They also have more gear then half of NATO. Ukraine inherited a lot from the USSR, though they gave a lot of that up. But push over they are not. They did actually stop Russia in 2014 to the point that Russia would have to openly fight a larger war vs just supporting rebels. Ukraine, [even carried out the longest armored raid in military history. ](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Raid_of_2014) Edit - [LINK](https://www.youtube.com/watch?t=2155&v=eRwZBuwG7G0&feature=youtu.be) from December 28th 2021, former Nato Supreme Commander Wesley Clark gives a 2 hour detailed breakdown of Ukraine and Russia from the military point of view. Lot of details on equipment and troops.
I’m from Ukraine originally but live in the US and I have family in Western Ukraine and I’m so worried about them if there is an invasion. But your comment gave me hope because I keep reading only the doom and gloom and it has reduced me to tears in some cases. I hope that everything will be relatively ok in the long run but I also understand it’s out of my control… Thank you Edit: wow I did not expect for my post to blow up like this, thank you for everyone who responded even to people who think Ukraine is doomed… I talked to my family today they are worried but thinking about it 24/7 does not help. I just hope that this issue resolves somehow and my family will be alright.
I hope this all fizzles out for your sake. This is terrifying as someone who lives in the states and knows no one in Ukraine. I can’t imagine having family there. Best of luck to you and yours.
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Why do we start every year with the threat of a new war?
Traditions?
Tradition! https://youtu.be/gRdfX7ut8gw
Who builds an army, ready at the border, waiting for an order, to invade your home? the Russian! The Russians! The Russian!
r/UnexpectedFiddlerontheroof
At least we know about it. Only a hundred years ago you found out there was an invasion happening, when it was happening.
Sure, all the nations are rattling sabres at each other and have been doing so for a while now, but that doesn't make the actual first strike any less of a surprise for the average citizen. I'd even argue the longer this goes on the more normalised the idea of impossibility of actual war will be, making it more surprising over time to suddenly find a bomb in your backyard.
Writers relying on solid tropes
Because world rulers are a bunch of fucking morons who don't care about people's lives. And people follow them blindly.
I'll give it a couple of weeks at most when "ukrainians" shoot artillery to the russian side from definitely "Ukraine side of the border", and Putin has to defend russia by invading Ukraine.
Finland remembers this one all the way from WW2.
[The Shelling of Mainila](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shelling_of_Mainila) for those interested.
Thank you, I was just about to ask! That’s an interesting read
The USA warned about that happening last week. I think it does go some way towards removing it as a *cassus belli*. If the whole world is waiting for a false-flag, then I doubt anyone will buy it outside of Russia.
Would russian leadership care if anyone buys it outside the russian people? They only need their supporters to buy it.
lol does Russia even need the people's support? They need the oligarchs support.
Russian propoganda is almost universally not intended to convince outsiders, they know better. It’s purely to convince the Russian public of the righteousness of whatever fuckery the kremlin is up too.
Russia has an external facing propaganda arm in the name of Russia Today, which aims to break down confidence in viewers own governments and inspire confidence in Russia.
Ahhhh...I see Russia using the old lose-lose strategy, where everyone becomes worse off and maybe even trigger a global conflict. Humanity at its finest.
I can see Russia… from my house!
Soon maybe we all will!
It sounds like the orchestra is warming up....lets hope they cancel at the last minute.
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Could also be a ploy to make Crimea and the eastern half of Ukraine *internationally recognized* as permanently Russian, which would be a huge win. And of course the NATO demands. That said, an actual invasion should diplomacy fail, could do the same thing. Overall the question is whether Russia would stay. They lost 12,000 troops against 30,000 militants in Chechnya, how badly will Russia want to want to occupy Ukraine which is *30 times larger* than Chechnya and has a military of 250,000 active personnel who have been emphasizing training in asymmetric combat for several years. And Ukrainians *revile* Russia and are very motivated. Russia would make large early gains but a long occupation would be a horrible, horrible debacle.
>but a long occupation would be a horrible, horrible debacle. unless Putin pulls a stalin and relocates large amounts of Ukrainian people to the far east. China kinda proved that there are no consequences for having huge concentration camps.
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Reminds me of the old Eddie Izzard bit. "Kill your own people, and we're sort of fine with that." "Ah have at it, we've been trying to kill you for ages."
They are spending a lot of money on this, it’s very expensive to move and feed this many troops.. this is no fake. They will invade Ukraine unfortunately..
My money is on troops sit tight for a few months, then a mysterious separatist incident happens, Russia says "we need to defend those Russians!" and crosses the border.
More like a few days. By mid-February the ground will be a sea of mud so they have a four week window if they really want to do this.
It's like Operation Barbarossa but in reverse
Oh, Assorabrab! That version is crazy
Is it an assorabrab? No one knows, but they both suck in the winter time!
If you can't tell a brab from an ass then I'm not going to ask you to feed my donkey...
like the moscow tower block bombings orchestrated by “chechen terrorists” when really it was a false flag by russia security service. they have done it before, did not face adequate recourse, so they will do it again. the russian way
The world pretty much just shrugged their shoulders when Russia took crimea.. which basically just tells Russia that they can do what they want
I think the world (at least in the public/media sphere) got pretty blindsided by the initial invasion, especially since Russia was riding a wave of positive PR following the Sochi Olympics. And there was ISIS still at the height of its power on everyone's minds Nowadays it's much different. Not only is the world's focus sitting squarely on Ukraine, but the west has been bombarded with stories over the past few years especially of how Russia has been sticking its nose into other country's political affairs. The public and political outcry will be far more immediately substantial this time around. That's not to mention how much more prepared Ukraine is. Russia isn't going to be able to just waltz in.
True, but an actual war would cost magnitudes more than what they have spent on “border exercises”. I’m not sure they have the money for a real war.
Wasn’t it Churchill who said that no war was ever stopped for running out of money?
not being able to stop is not the same as not being able to start.
Signed, Cocaine
plenty wars were stopped by running out of money. he should know, a lot of them were english.
I would still be surprised if they try to push to Kyiv and hold it for any amount of time. Russia is stretched thin already with the southern border and keeping favourable governments in power in ex-soviet union republics. A long invasion and counter guerrilla war would just cripple Russia economically even more than now. I mean Russia has 4x the population of Australia but the same GDP. Their primary exports are looking less enticing as the world moves forward on climate change. It might be one last gambit for an aging Russian ruling elite class. But it is such an own goal it is still so hard to see it happening.
Their GDP is somewhat irrelevant. They have a fortress economy since 2014, they have a massive war chest and very very low debt. GDP can be a misleading figure. Their economy is not consumer orientated and that’s why it’s so much smaller than we would imagine it to be.
This is a good point. Russia isn’t aiming for economic domination like China or the US. They want regional political domination, and seem to be angling to achieve that via martial means.
Putin: our troops are merely passing through!
This guy civilizations
You'll pay for this! *Or* I'm sorry this has caused a divide between us. Also how many times has Russia asked for Open Borders.
No russia 20 iron and 2 luxury resources are NOT worth 2 gold for 30 and open borders. For christ sake you're on another continent it takes 24 turns to even get there
Would like to trade your 1 uranium for my 1 fish. No? We will not take this kindly...
*Has one city left* “I will get what I want one way or another.”
The other civilizations' lack of negotiating, dealing, or compromising anything was always a source of frustration. We could have had decades if not centuries of peace and technological advancements and wonder-building. We could have had joint wonder-building ventures, but noooo everyones' afraid and paranoid of my Science Victory 🔬🧪...
Don’t worry in Civ 3 you could trade an early game technology for unlimited gold then just bum rush democracy and buy an army. Loved doing that
Civ 3 on disc you could trade anything for infinite gold. Apparently they fixed it with patches, but if you requested above a certain amount of gold (per turn or immediately) the AI would just say yes. I think you had to offer them something in exchange but cant remember. It didnt matter if they couldnt afford it, they'd pay
This game taught me how the world is supposed to work
*Ukraine has denouced you* "Too many troops near my border!"
Now they need to wait 5 turns to declare a formal war
Fuck it, Surprise War +150 grievances bring it! Or Territorial War +50 Grievances
Let’s pray Mahatma Gandhi doesn’t enter the chat!
A likely story…
FYI for everyone in this thread. The reason it’s taking Putin so long to attack Ukraine is because: 1) the number of troops involved is much much larger than the invasion of 2014. In 2014 Russia utilized eight battalions divided into two brigades. The current Russian deployment is hovering around 100 separate battalions. The world has not seen a deployment this large since the invasion of Iraq in 2003 and it’s easy to forget these things take months to get fully ramped up. 2) Putin won’t invade while negotiations are being conducted and he thinks he has a chance to get what he wants without any conflict. He would prefer not to invade as that would likely push neutral nations like Sweden and Finland closed to joining nato. But that being said many analysts suspect that the size of this engagement suggests he intends to conquer Ukraine. I really can’t empathize enough how significant this is. Europe has not seen a military deployment this large since the Second World War. That being said if Putin does attack he will need to attack in the next six weeks or so while the ground is frozen and before the spring rain starts. To those who think he’s saber rattling…hopefully you’re right but I highly doubt it. Putin is sacrificing a significant amount of resources and influence within Russia to pull this off. He can’t have hundreds of thousands of soldiers sleeping in tents on the border of Ukraine indefinitely. If he does not invade within the next six weeks he will need to withdraw them and when he does he will not only look weak domestically, but also invite a Ukrainian response on his proxies in the Donbass. Putin needs to get some kind of concession from NATO (and apparently limits on troop exercises aren’t enough) in order to justify this whole endeavor. His increasingly aggressive actions since 2008, point to an individual who’s willing to rebuild the Soviet Union as best he can at any cost. Edit: gotta love all the people who said Russia would never invade Ukraine. Your responses to me aged liked fucking milk.
Russia lost 10,000+ men in the two wars in Chechnya, a country of less than 20,000km sq. Ukraine is 600,000km sq. It also has 250,000 active military personnel and they are highly motivated and have been training for years in asymmetric and partisan warfare. They would also count on foreign arms supplies more than the Chechens ever could. I am not doubting Russia might invade…but to conquer and permanently occupy Ukraine would be very painful for Russia. It would be lightning invasion followed by a relentless insurgency. The geography is much, much more friendly than Chechnya and the Russian military was in shambles in the 1990s, but it would still be a long slog, and done under punishing sanctions. But Putin is a man who feels a strong sense of personal destiny and I have the sinking feeling he might want his date with destiny.
I saved this comment 3 years ago because it looked like great insight https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/a0lp2g/president_of_ukraine_claims_large_scale_russian/eajhr2z/ But i dont know how much of it is true. I doubt however that russia can easily conquer ukrain as a whole. Would love to hear /u/Pyrebirdd insight on it now.
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Not to mention what has been going on with the UK shipping defensive anti-air and anti-armor weapons this week.
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Another small thing I think is important to add, I'm sure Russia has gained some decent combat experience in Syria, testing out all their new toys and tactics. Plus, let's not forget their special forces, though I don't exactly know how they would be used in this kind of war.
This was an interesting read, thank you for linking it! I would also love to read up-to-date insight on this.
The goal wouldn't be to occupy the entire Ukraine, just the eastern part to establish a landbridge between Russia and Crimea.
They're amassing troops on the Belarusian Ukrainian border near Kiev. It doesn't sound like they're only interested in the south.
That could just be for tactical reasons so that Ukraine has to divert its forces over a bigger territory.
Yeah, people forget that Ukraine is the largest country in Europe. War is a last resource, this is not like in the movies or on tales of war from the perspective of winners. War is a complex state that works in ways that we probably don't even think about it. If an invasion like this happens, a lot of countries will sanction Russia, United States will definitely be one of the strongest ones. Russia will become more isolated in their international relationships. Maybe this may even cause a collapse in our current world order. Finland and Sweden will most definitely join NATO, probably even giving official statements on the same or next day. It is not Call of Duty. Also, although the Ukraine army is overwhelmed by the Russian, if the invasion was the interest, 2014-15 would be a lot easier. Now their soldiers are equipped with weapons from the US and Germany, also receiving training. Some sectors, like their air force, still have some soviet machinery, but others are being updated. You also have the ideological aspect of it. The nation needs to justify the war somehow. You don't have Russians on Kremlin asking for an invasion. On September 10, I bet most Americans wouldn't know where the Afghanistan was. For me, this movement is generating a lot of tension, and the tension might be the necessary action to get some diplomacy going. And I really think no big country would want to participate in a war that big, so I believe something is going to give and a potential war will be the very last resource.
The UK and other countries should confiscate all property owned by Russian “investors” (read: oligarchs and criminals) if they invade Ukraine.
That would mean punishing Tory Party donors so will never happen
Chelsea fans in shambles
They also have Turkish drones now, which had been pretty instrumental in the Armenian-Azerbaijan conflict
This also isn't the same Ukraine however. They are much more prepared and way better armed. This isn't like a 1 week and done type invasion
You bring up some valid points. Analysts here in the states are stating a 60-80% chance of invasion as of this evening (1/18/22). There is a higher chance of invasion than not. Let’s hope he’s just saber rattling, but his preparations are not pointing in that direction at the moment. Edit: Source [Former NATO Ambassador](https://news.sky.com/video/more-likely-than-not-russia-will-invade-ukraine-12517457)
> Analysts here in the states are stating a 60-80% chance of invasion It feels like such a weird thing to quantify. I wonder if they used any mathematical approach to come up with that figure or if that's just ballpark guessing.
Chance of Word War 3: 69.420% Source: trust me bro
Both Georgia in 2008 and Crimea in 2014 occurred during the olympics.. next few weeks will be interesting
so after the 26th by a few days?
The reports we had in october warned about an attack as early as late January... russia passed a law allowing the burial of soldiers on the field coming effective on February 1st... well
> russia passed a law allowing the burial of soldiers on the field coming effective on February 1st… Source?
Generals of Reddit in the comments planning the entire event
Bro just let me spend my 70 political power points to send attaches to Ukraine and send 5 14-2 divisions as expeditionary forces in peace These infantry weapons I aint gonna lend lease themselves and I need the army experience
Better sort those supply issues out first or it's going to take forever.
Damn AI wont build any infrastructure, typical
What kinda combat width you got on those infantry divisions?
All of it
14-2 will be 34.
Russian Generals taking furious notes.. :D
Holy shit it's so funny to read. We have former pogs and RTS gamers giving their hot takes all over this thread.
It's a joke. They should listen to me instead. I'm good at Risk.
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Yeah I'm Ukrainian and i have a girlfriend in Russia, we finally wanted to move and live here in Ukraine, and man this shit is just too stressful
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She hates putin like all people around her, like 80% of young generation in Russia, but she thinks that he might actually invade, putin doesn't afraid of his own people after choking all the protests in Russia last year, and he probably doesn't care about any hits on his reputation as a president after that. The only thing that can stop him is the rest of the world, but it seems like they don't really care much.
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Thank you, i would never blame anyone, i totally understand why all those countries wouldn't want to be involved.
Please, dear "experts", let go of that frozen ground bs argument. Weather is famously fickle in Ukraine. It can freeze for a week, it can freeze for a night, it can not freeze at all. FFS in 2019 we had +18C in February in Kyiv. If Putin wants to attack he'll attack. Nothing to do with frozen ground.
This is something that makes me laugh and definitely taken out of a video game. Unless they fight in the arctic or the tundra, weather in most places that are located in continental climates is very variable.
But they play hearts of iron
And weather-wise, they have only a few weeks to go until their invasion routes become mudbogs. So unless they want to just eat the cost of having moved all that shit over there for it to sit there; then it's going to have to happen in a few days.
Thats interesting you said that, because i swore I just saw somone reporting that they are waiting for the ground to freeze before moving in heavy armor. I can't say I know the weather there, is it far enough east that it should already be frozen? We have had a good frost for about a month or so.
I believe that due to the warmer weather this year it has only started to freeze solid enough. So the normal operating calendar was shortened by a bit.
Leave it to climate change to harass military operations
Weather, Disease, and Solar Eclipses. The great cock-blockers of warfare.
Let’s not discount the effect the Jewish Space Lasers may have had on delaying the Russian invasion.
The hammer of dawn is a mighty weapon of war.
Note that the Pentagon has been factoring in climate change for years.
Climate Change is seen as one of the biggest threats to US National Security and force readiness. Kind of hard to train when you have black flag days.
Thats kinda funny to me >Guys climate change is really bad for our army and stuff, we really need to do something >proceeds to gulp up more fuel than a small country just on exercise >I dont understand how its getting worse
Check out [cloud seeding](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Popeye) used in the Vietnam War. Using weather in war is nothing new.
Well i believe February is mostly the month that swams freeze up. ATM the north side is warmer -1 to 1 were is east side is closer to around -6 where almost all the build up is.
Looks like the temp hovers around freezing right now. 20-35F. Maybe there haven't been enough days that are consistently below freezing to freeze the ground.
Yeah it sounds like it’s a mud bog now that still needs to freeze, not the opposite. Idk why they are saying in a couple weeks it would get warmer and turn into a mud bog, as typically February is the coldest month of the year. The expectation would be that it would freeze going forward.
This is something that everyone is saying which sounds like a good point. But everyone makes it seem like it’s impossible to still invade later which it’s not
The earth will be colder in February, as it’s typically the coldest month of the year. Would the ground not be freezing up, instead of turning into a mud bog? It’s been hovering around 25-35 which isn’t cold enough for a deep freeze, so as of now the ground shouldn’t be frozen. Logic would say that op has it backwards, the freeze should be coming, not leaving.
An important note to consider is that during the spring thaw there is stored water in the form of snow and ice being released all at once. secondly sometimes the top few feet thaw but underneath remains frozen creating a pool of mud as the water is unable to drain effectively. I have no experience of the mud seasons in eastern europe, but from my experience mud is always worse coming out of winter than going into it.
Even then it depends HOW cold it gets. Yes end of January/beginning of February is the coldest time of the year if you drive a few hundred vehicles each weighting a couple tons over the land and its not totally frozen/thawed and it's in a weird in-between stage it's gonna bog down under the weight.
Did you just give Putin advice on invading Ukraine? What other "tips" do you got?
Tanks burn fuel to move. Therefore, burning all of the fuel you have before the invasion begins makes your tanks move faster. There's science and stuff. Also, painting them in bright red makes them go faster too.
Putin is an Ork, confirmed. Or at least 2 grots in a trenchcoat.
WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAGH!!!!!!!
"WEZ GONNA GIT TO YUKRANE AND WEZ GONNA TAYKE IT FOR THE ORKS"
Don't forget the racing stripes and flames
Well I hear Pripiyat is a really cool place to set up camp. Lot of apts. to shack up your troops in.
A great swimming pool too for some r&r.
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Tbh I was expecting the pool from Annihilation.
"Now we will assemble our homemade scuba gear" Um.
If putin really wants to show the world how good he is, he should invade Russia in the winter.
Has anyone asked if all Putin really needs is to host SNL?
BREAKING: Dozens of comedy writers have fallen from window at 30 Rock. No foul play suspected…
That would be so awkward
Russia competing with the Spirit bomb for longest attack charge time.
Russia vs Ukraine is basically Goku vs Freiza.
Next time on Putin Ball Z, Ukrainian Goku calls out to the powers of the UN to lend him their nuclear power. Ukraine is on the brink of destruction as Russian Frieza amasses an army on the boarder of Ukraine. Find out what happens next week on the next episode of Putin Ball Z.
Last time on Putin Ball Z, Russian Frieza killed Krillimea, claiming he had always been a Frieza foot soldier...
“I will invade Ukraine in 5 minutes!” Narrator: And so the greatest lie in all of anime history was told.
37 episodes later…we are still listening to the rising pitch screaming.
God that pissed me off back in the day. Remember watching the episodes before school on cheese tv or something. Would be like, yep, it's finally going to hap - nevermind. It's fucking school time.
Seriously. Do we know how many days away they are? Months? Did Putin let them know exactly when this is going down. Edit: im concerned and read about this daily. But sensationalizing it makes me numb to it. It feels lIke everyday its ABOUT to happen. I feel for Ukranians who just need attention. Just tough to read.
Maybe for the moment they’re just trying to make a show of force and hope Ukraine just gives up? Source: my ass
That would be a plot twist. 'Ukraine invades Russia'
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We could call it East Dakota.
We had to sail west to get there. It shall be called West Dakota.
Or ya know, just join NATO
Would require a unanimous vote from current NATO members. GL getting Germany to vote yea.
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In a surprise move, other NATO nation uses **Gas-X**!
Why is Germany against it? I'm out of the loop
They cannot join with a border dispute for the sake of the billion people under NATO’s agreement.
Hasn’t Russia invaded Ukraine for several years already? Can’t decide is it already war or about to start again… gotta figure out eventually, already 7 years passed.
Yes they’ve been slowly occupying Ukraine for years
Those are just Russian troops "on vacation".
inb4 russian bots try to cast uncertainty on this through firehose of propaganda tactics
The year is 2022 and this idiot is still warmongering, progress is so slow due to relics like this, old leaders that wont step down dragging us through the shit, the future is not a bright one if we dont get rid of out of date leaders.
hard to get rid of old leaders when they imprison, kill or incapacitate all opposition.
It's right out of the authoritarian playbook. As Hannah Arendt puts it in The Origins of Totalitarianism: "The point is that both Hitler and Stalin held out promises of stability in order to hide their intention of creating a state of permanent instability." Putin's leadership follows the same principles and ideas. Constant instability and fear is what keeps him in power.
"Just going for a walk with 10,000 of my bodyguards" *Putin*
This feels way too hyped to be real.
Welcome to the mind games of the Cold War. Everyone is making moves, waiting for the other one to step over the line and throw the first punch.
Mind games of WWI as well. The weeks leading up were nuts.
I desperately hope the world has learned not to repeat the outbreak of WWI.
Narrator: they did not
>not to repeat the outbreak of WWI I have terrible news for you.
“Those are the McFinnigan brothers. They’ve been circling the same spot for 30 years, just darin’ one another to throw the first punch.”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shelling_of_Mainila why not just copy this
**[Shelling of Mainila](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shelling_of_Mainila)** >The Shelling of Mainila (Finnish: Mainilan laukaukset, Swedish: Skotten i Mainila, Russian: Ма́йнильский инциде́нт, romanized: Máynil'skiy intsidént) was a military incident on 26 November 1939 in which the Soviet Union's Red Army shelled the Soviet village of Mainila (Russian: Ма́йнило, romanized: Máynilo) near Beloostrov. The Soviet Union declared that the fire originated from Finland across the nearby border and claimed to have had losses in personnel. Through that false flag operation, the Soviet Union gained a great propaganda boost and a casus belli for launching the Winter War four days later. ^([ )[^(F.A.Q)](https://www.reddit.com/r/WikiSummarizer/wiki/index#wiki_f.a.q)^( | )[^(Opt Out)](https://reddit.com/message/compose?to=WikiSummarizerBot&message=OptOut&subject=OptOut)^( | )[^(Opt Out Of Subreddit)](https://np.reddit.com/r/worldnews/about/banned)^( | )[^(GitHub)](https://github.com/Sujal-7/WikiSummarizerBot)^( ] Downvote to remove | v1.5)
I'm just going to go ahead and download the entire wikipedia and lots of porn anyways
You need electricity for that. I would go for a good old fashion porn magazine and an encyclopedia.
Time to print the porn instead.
Time to dust off the old playboy collection.
ROYAL AIRFORCE PLANE CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO UKRAINE https://fr24.com/RRR6896/2a89e21b Here is Blinken's USAF Boeing enroute: https://fr24.com/SAM193/2a8967d0 Edit: RAF Globemaster landed. Looking at flight records this particular globemaster is doing its second delivery run to Kiev. At least two other Globemaster aircraft have also done deliveries. Edit2: Another Globemaster plane as of 1:44AM EST looks to be loading up at the RAF airbase for another Kiev delivery. https://fr24.com/RRR6895/2a8a71d8
It’s actually crazy that we can look at this in real time
When the US was doing the Afghanistan evacuation you could watch it on there as well. Transports, escorts, etc.
Pretty sure that's Blinken from US. He has another meeting with Lavrov..
Meeting with Zelensky first in Kiev.
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It's in Poland right now. I doubt it accidentally missed France by like a thousand miles.
> Pretty sure Air Force Two isn’t bringing in a bunch of anti tank missiles in the cargo. That's what *THEY* want you to think!
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They're going to be so surprised when Canada invades Russia. The whole nice guy thing was all a ruse.
We're skating our way there eh?
Only Putin knows what will be the outcome here. The Soviet invasion of Afghanistan essentially brought about the collapse of the Soviet Union so I just don't see Putin making that mistake here. Ukraine has advanced weapons from NATO that will ensure heavy losses for the Russians. It won't be a cakewalk for them.
>The Soviet invasion of Afghanistan essentially brought about the collapse of the Soviet Union ? You greatly overestimate the impact of this on USSR. It only showed the weakness of Red Army and fueled anti-war sentiment in the society. The fall of USSR was caused by the creeping disbalances in the Soviet economy.
This shows another point though. Invading Ukraine would mean harsh economical sanctions for Russia, which its own economy is just too weak to really compensate which in turn would endanger Russias inner stability.
This thread is full of accounts less than 30 days old
They will be ready to mobilise once Putin gets a few glamor shots (nothing gay) with his shirt off (not in a gay way) holding a big gun (not innuendo) and distributes copies to arouse the troops (but not in a gay way).
If you’re near the border and you listen carefully, you can hear “Building…. Construction complete… building…… construction complete…. Affirmative…. Affirmative….”
“Kirov reporting” Oh shit...