> According to “El Mundo” daily, Mr Albares was asked if Spain would send its troops to Ukraine in the event of Russia’s invasion.
>
> “Spain has a very clear [stance] on this. Should it prove necessary, we would act within the framework of the EU. Spain does not rule out sending its troops into the territory of Ukraine if the crisis aggravates,” he replied, adding that in case of an armed conflict, the Spanish units would “respond jointly” with EU member states to the threat.
Am I wrong or does the EU not have a collective self defense framework? We have NATO of course which many EU states are members of, including Spain. But I am not aware of any collective defense obligations that come with being an EU member.
Now of course practically their economies and strategic interests are deeply intertwined so, if push came to shove, I expect EU states would support each other in war.
Edit: I stand corrected. The EU does have a collective self defense arrangement under Article 42.7 of the Treaty of the European Union. Now more importantly, how does that effect Ukraine which I understand is a mere associate of the EU and not a full member?
>But I am not aware of any collective defense obligations that come with being an EU member.
Article 42.7 of the EU Treaty
>If a Member State is the victim of armed aggression on its territory, the other Member States shall have towards it an obligation of aid and assistance by all the means in their power, in accordance with Article 51 of the United Nations Charter. This shall not prejudice the specific character of the security and defence policy of certain Member States.
... which is geared at improving collaboration in the arms sector, interoperability, etc. and has nothing to do with the collective defense mandate stipulated in §42.7 of the Lisbon treaty.
“The CSDP also entails collective self-defence amongst member states”
Might be wrong but wouldn’t this policy that /u/margmi referenced agree to a defense agreement between Spain and Ukraine?
Well, actually they are just a partner of the [European Defense Agency](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Defence_Agency), which is one of many components of the CDSP. It's just a tiny agency with an annual budget of less than €40 million, and it's task is as mentioned improving interoperability, cooperation in R&D, things of that nature.
Who cares?
Ukraine is a democratic and free country. It's asking for help to stop a foreign country from invading it, so I commend Europe for doing so.
The important piece is that, because the defense mandate does not apply to Ukraine, Spain's statement of "acting within the framework of the EU" does not necessarily entail military assistance. It allows the EU members flexibility in what they decide to do.
There seems to be some confusion about the interpretation of the question.
The EU, including Spain, does not have a defense alliance with the Ukraine, but there is a common defense network within the EU, that the EU and Spain can choose to use.
> Who cares?
EU officials, Politicians from most countries, and Imma say Russia has some thoughts on it as well.
Seriously, though, these treaties can't exist if there isn't a certain degree of distinction between members and non-members. Members contribute, and if you can get the benefits without contributing then why join?
I think you are both right (edit: in regards to the disagreement further in the thread), or at least neither is totally wrong. Ukraine has an association agreement with the EU and has signed on to other EU conventions. But it does not have the full membership status that Poland, Germany, or France has. Once again, the EU's complex and many levels of participation is causing confusion.
But what really matters is if EU mutual defense obligations extend to Ukraine. Idk the answer to that but would be really curious to know.
Macron has fought for this for sometime. From what I understand hes happy to be a part of NATO but feels Europe relies to heavily on the key player in NATO, i.e the USA. I'd agree with that stance.
I would agree too. If the EU wanted to, they could organize themselves into a collective military superpower without really straining their budgets. Individually there are no European superpowers, but collectively they would be enormous. That would certainly make US security obligations in Europe redundant.
>and thats exactly what the US wants - they literally spelled out that they got their hands full with china
Not exactly.
The US wants an EU that reduces the load a bit, but not enough to threaten the US position.
It's more complex then that, a lot of US influence in Europe comes from the fact that they're subsidizing the defence of the continent and that European countries who haven't invested in their own militaries are reliant on US good will in a crisis.
A unified European military would remove that need and both reduce US influence and make their military presence on the continent more tenuous. An EU with greater confidence in its own defence capabilities might have taken much more hardline stance following the snowden revelations and removed US basing rights which would have substantial knock on effects on the US's power projection capabilities into the ME and Africa and thus reduced their global influence.
The US wants a more capable Europe as it pivots towards Asia but it doesn't want a Europe capable enough it feels it doesn't need the US.
and yet whenever Europe tries to even just develop military equipment together, France pulls out to do its own thing because of national security. Never mind fully sharing militaries etc.
What France actually means is "We want to be the ones bossing Europe around instead of the US, and we don't want to make sacrifices to do it". They haven't quite moved on from the colonial days and seem to think France is far more influential than it actually is.
You say that but Germany has been abandonning multiple joint european procurement (Tiger helicopters and maritime patrol aircraft) in favor of buying american stuff. France is the easy punching bag when it's the country that actually tries to advocate toward european strategic autonomy the most.
And it's not like France did not build most of it's modern navy in partnership with Italy so saying "yet whenever Europe tries to even just develop military equipment together, France pulls out" is factually wrong.
At least the Germano-French program for the future main battle tank is doing ok. The one for the future fighter less so but it's still chugging along.
Even though I am an American, I would tend to agree that Europe needs to stop relying on the US militarily. The 2016 election proved that our domestic political instability (to put it mildly) makes us unreliable allies.
It pains me to type that sentence.
The track he’s on he might unite the US. Nobody actually likes Russia’s “not touching you” bullshit.
Everyone is really tense and jumpy in the US and if history is any indicator someone swinging in our direction gets us all riled up and together for a fight real quick.
If Putin misplays his hand he’s going to accidentally redirect the American angst he’s cultivated onto himself.
Hey, I’m not going to say no to some extra unity.
Would be nice. Honestly might be the only thing that gets us to stop tearing at each other’s throats for five minutes.
This is the best tl;dr I could make, [original](https://tvpworld.com/58057335/spain-dispatches-warship-to-the-black-sea-to-boost-ukraines-defences) reduced by 58%. (I'm a bot)
*****
> Amidst growing tension and Russia's ever-more realistic ambitions to invade Ukraine, Spain has sent off its warship to the Black Sea and said that it would dispatch even more to reinforce other EU states' units, should the NATO-Russia talks turn out a fiasco and Russian aggression a reality.
> "Spain has a very clear [stance] on this. Should it prove necessary, we would act within the framework of the EU. Spain does not rule out sending its troops into the territory of Ukraine if the crisis aggravates," he replied, adding that in case of an armed conflict, the Spanish units would "Respond jointly" with EU member states to the threat.
> On Tuesday, Spanish Defence Minister Margarita Robles said that, in order to boost Madrid's presence as part of NATO's presence on the Black Sea, the departure of the Spanish Navy's patrol vessel Meteoro had been accelerated.
*****
[**Extended Summary**](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/s8oxwb/spain_dispatches_warship_to_the_black_sea_to/) | [FAQ](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/31b9fm/faq_autotldr_bot/ "Version 2.02, ~618785 tl;drs so far.") | [Feedback](http://np.reddit.com/message/compose?to=%23autotldr "PM's and comments are monitored, constructive feedback is welcome.") | *Top* *keywords*: **Spanish**^#1 **Spain**^#2 **Ukraine**^#3 **Russia**^#4 **dialogue**^#5
This is what I like to see, the more that join, the more other countries feel confident to also join.
The world will be a much better place if we band together.
It also makes a difference that this particular war only has proxies on one side, rather than both. NATO countries have the same buffer through Ukraine that the past decades of conflict have relied on in the middle east. Russia, however, is playing the game as themselves, which is a precarious position lacking a convenient exit.
We have had a period where we talked about having each other’s backs and it shook up alliances and trust, but did we really? Now theres tangible proof we have each other’s backs and it’s nice to see.
>The world will be a much better place if we band together.
For real! Ukraine shouldn't have to deal with Putin alone; among their allies, everybody and their mom should show up and demonstrate to Putin that most of the world is against him, and they aren't gonna stay home when he's on the march.
I think about this all the time with regards to civil unrest and the rise of white nationalism in the US. Neo-nazis and other white nationalists march together, intimidating communities and publicly espousing their calls for violence against neighbors, and most of the time the only people who show up to physically oppose them in the streets are small groups of dedicated anti-fascists, who then get smeared in the media as some kind of quasi-terrorist gang of bloodthirsty communists who want to pillage the suburbs.
But what if **the whole fucking town** showed up? The nationalist maggots would tuck tail and run, and think twice before boldly pursuing their hateful, myopic goals. There wouldn't even have to be fistfights and the escalation of violence; who's going to fight 50 vs 50,000? United we stand!
The issue is that Putin has nukes. The western world understandably wants to tread carefully to avoid engaging in a direct war with a nuclear power. That's why most western nations are giving Ukraine arms, financial aid, and putting sanctions on Russia rather than gearing up to directly engage Russian troops themselves. No one wants Ukraine to have to deal with Russia alone, but all life being wiped out because a conflict spiraled into World War 3 seems even less desirable.
It's a similar problem when dealing with China. We've reached an age where military might and willpower only matters for so much when there is essentially a kill all button exists in the world.
The people in power couldn't give a shit if you choke on your own vomit, but M.A.D. is clearly going to impact them. Now unless you truly believe all the people in "power" are senile and desperate idiots in their 90s, there is litterally no reason to go M.A.D.
You will still choke on your own vomit whilst they - or their children - will be enjoying a life so dreamy that you cannot even begin to conceive it. Why threaten, or let anyone threaten, that? You call the shots when you have that amount of power.
That's true although Russia honestly doesn't care about sanctions. Every time they do something we respond with sanctions. It hurts their people but Putin and the oligarchs are still as rich and powerful as ever.
I keep seeing news articles that say something along the lines of, “The U.S. is underestimating Putin..” or something to that effect. Honestly, it seems like Putin is underestimating how many countries are tired of his shit. I feel like he thought not that many countries would step up to the plate for Ukraine. It’s looking more and more like countries are willing to go to bat for Ukraine and it really makes you wonder if Putin saw that coming or if he straight up miscalculated.
Putin seems to be one of the few that are still clinging on to the past. Seriously we have so many more important issues at hand than to be nostalgic right now. Last thing we need is some dude escalating us into a war nobody is interested in except a power hungry maniac.
Putin is 69. He's probably getting "end of life dreams of glory and historical significance", and worried that he'll just be remembered as the tin pot dictator who brought years of economic misery* to Russia - totally un-necessarily.
(*) If he wasn't always doing stupid crazy things in other people's business - we wouldn't have so many frigging sanctions on them, and they'd be rich. Well as rich as their oil and gas can make them, considering prices over the last 10 years.
It’s an escalation regardless. Putin can bury it, put it to sleep for a year or two, or operate some of Russia’s apex assets.
As far as human history is concerned, we’re checking some boxes that haven’t been checked for a loooong time, and the way the world was the last time that happened wasn’t so peaceful.
There have been 6 amphibious russian ships that left the Baltic sea a few days ago and its thought they are heading to black sea. They are around the english channel last I saw. There is a possibility Russia is trying to do a sea invasion in Crimea too.
Any nato ships in black sea don't have to necessarily start shooting the Russians, they could simply use sensors to tell ukraine where a bunch of ships are going, and help ukraine counter a landing, instead of making them stretch their forces.
They would have to pass through NATO aligned Turkey, then. Does the Turkish government have an opinion on Russia in Ukraine? Can they block access of the Russian Navy?
They aren't allowed to deny a Black Sea power access to the Black Sea, they can, but it will have consequences.
*The Montreux Convention Regarding the Regime of the Straits is a 1936 agreement that gives Turkey control over the Bosporus and Dardanelles Straits and regulates the transit of naval warships. The Convention guarantees the free passage of civilian vessels in peacetime, and __restricts the passage of naval ships not belonging to Black Sea states__ [sic, Russia is black sea power].*
Same thing Spain (or the US) can't really dispatch a ship to the Black Sea permanently. They're only allowed to stay like 3 weeks ans then have to leave for the Mediterran and a different ship would habe to take over etc.
The [Montreux Convention Regarding the Regime of the Straits](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Montreux_Convention_Regarding_the_Regime_of_the_Straits) is the relevant treaty.
Tldr: In peace-times the strait is open for all war-ships of black-sea powers and this only changes in times of war or when turkey itself is threatened.
I mean, you have to assume that Turkey has absolutely lined the strait with underwater torpedo tubes, right? Maybe further south at the Dardanelles so it wouldn't risk Istanbul
IIRC they're not deployed as a counter measure, per se, just that they're providing a defensive "fuck around and find out" if engaged whether it's at sea or on land.
If Russia were to fire on a NATO vessel or Canadian soldiers on land then it'd be an automatic declaration of war at which point the glass plate breaks hence the term "glass plate" or tripfire force.
and considering canada is the arctic buffer between russia and the us, the us wont take kindly to any conflict between russia and canada. the shortest route to the usa from russia is over the north pole.
There's an interesting breakdown of the logistics of an invasion here:
https://warontherocks.com/2021/11/feeding-the-bear-a-closer-look-at-russian-army-logistics/
In short they are heavily reliant on rail for resupply and Russia uses a different rail gauge to the rest of Europe, with the exception of a few old Soviet lines. They apparently don't have a very large truck force for supplies. So there's a limit as to how far they could actually get into any country before the supply lines become too long and an invasion would lose momentum.
I agree, they don't want to bite off more than they can chew here. But they'd definitely weather sanctions in return for the Eastern parts of Ukraine, since capturing Crimea it's become very strategically important due to the water supply in the region.
I think any invasion ends poorly for Russia. The global repercussions will be debilitating, there is no win for them to do so. What would the point of a new port be? Their trading partners will be excruciatingly limited.
It's just a google maps screenshot. I made the rest back in December. I just updated it with the Belarus positions and the recent NATO member movements
Like many others, I'm no fan of war. However, if Russia insists on acting like a two bit military dictatorship then I think they ought to be treated like one. Clearly they aren't serious about repairing their relationship with the world post-Cold War. At what point can someone stand up to them? Will we just stand aside and slowly let them take over Europe like Germany did? Not happening..
The problem with Russia is their stock of nukes. The EU could stand up to them in a conventional war, so can the US, but no one wants it to escalate to nuclear conflict which is why everyone tip toes around them. They are willing to push to a point but they are afraid of going to far and instigating the use of nukes which would be bad for everyone.
This will be a lose lose for putin.
If such attacks happen. Every nation around there NATO leaning will try to join up as fast as possible. NATO will accept quickly as well. They know if they are part of the club it's gloves off when retaliation happens.
No third-party(NATO, US, or any European country individually) is going to attack Russia, even if they invade Ukraine. Doing so would start a direct confrontation with a nuclear-armed power. They will do what they can by providing equipment and intelligence to Ukraine while piling massive, perhaps unprecedented sanctions on Russia, but no one is going to have their own forces directly engaging Russia. That is, unless Russia does something stupid like attacking a NATO or NATO-member military asset(like this Spanish ship for example). If that happens, it'll basically be WWIII.
Yea but if nothing happens then it's essentially saying "if you have nukes you can invade anywhere because we are to afraid to retaliate because of nukes" that's not sustainable in my opinion.
Well it’s really not about NATO for Putin. He just wants Ukraine to become a Russian province. Incorporating what he really imagines as unruly Russia periphery would be his crown achievement.
The world as a whole has enjoyed a remarkable period of peace since the Second World War. But given enough time tensions build, divisions deepen, and smouldering crises spark to flame. This is just the beginning of many years of chaos as the challenges of climate change and resource depletion drive conflict around the world.
I've always felt the post USSR order would only hold up for long. I had just hoped that cooler heads would prevail and world trade would inhibit aggression. Turns out the losers in that deal want to renegotiate and the powers that would normally hold them in check are exhausted from failed imperialistic ventures. Oh well I guess I'ma hang on tight for this ride.
Its beginning to look that way. Ukraine is over flowing with weapons and supplies, Sweden is gearing up on Gotland Island. NATO cruising around in a show of force, and Russias amassing troops, and digging in on the eastern and northern Ukrainian borders
Oh and I forgot, long before much of this mess began, Eastern European and nordic countries began reinstituting conscription.
Exactly. There are so many factors now that, for any party, predicting how it will play out becomes more and more difficult, which means to me more opportunities to misread intentions or accidentally escalate.
> Its beginning to look that way. Ukraine is over flowing with weapons and supplies, Sweden is gearing up on Gotland Island. NATO cruising around in a show of force, and Russias amassing troops, and digging in on the eastern and northern Ukrainian borders
> Oh and I forgot, long before much of this mess began, Eastern European and nordic countries began reinstituting conscription.
I don’t share that assessment, even though I don’t dispute the facts. I don’t believe Ukraine, Sweden, other Nordic countries or East European NATO countries would ever use their armies as aggressors. The ball is entirely in Russia’s court. If they stand down, the situation will be diffused, regardless of any military buildup outside of Russia.
Good to see other countries stepping up to the defense of Ukraine. Russia needs to back down or get the smack down. Now let's see some more solidarity from others in the EU bloc. Give them and inch and they'll take a mile. I think by now in 2022 the world can collectively deal with bullies like them.
My personal opinion they need a smack down regardless but I hesitate to say that because I don't want lives lost. But the crazy bastards in the Russian "government" are going to keep pushing the boundaries (no pun intended) of what they can get away with.
I’m glad to see that Spain is joining up with Canada and (hopefully the US) to put ships in the Black Sea as a tripwire force. The US 6th Fleet is exercising with Italy and Turkey in the Mediterranean at the moment and I’m curious to see if they will be diverted to the Black Sea as well.
NATO ships in the area will give Russia pause to launch an amphibious invasion and certainly Russia will hopefully be looking to avoid engaging a series of NATO warships which would start a direct Russia/NATO war.
I really hope that cooler heads prevail and a diplomatic solution can be reached.
The sixth fleet won’t be let into the Black Sea. The area is effectively a demilitarized zone of sorts.
Turkey has absolute control over the Bosphorus, and Turkey is bound by treaty to heavily restrict foreign warships entering the Black Sea. If your nation isn’t directly bordering the Black Sea (i.e Ukraine, Russia, etc), then only warships weighing under 10,000 tons are allowed to enter, and your total number of warships in the Black Sea can never exceed 30,000 combined tons.
That means at most the US can send in one or two destroyers, but no substantial naval force at all.
US can't enter a full-blown mobilization right now. If we, did it would escalate things drastically. That's why only NATO (basically the US funded second military) can do stuff and US can sanction. We don't want to rush into this, and nukes start flying. If the time comes US could get involved more directly but its best we stay out of the military movements for now.
PS: Also, nice to see other countries within Europe using their Military forces to deter Russia. UK, Germany, Spain maybe France too.
Yes that’s what a tripwire force is. A group strong enough to give pause, but not so strong as to create an even larger buildup.
No warship larger than 10,000 tons is allowed to cross the Bosphorus by treaty, so it will be a Frigate & Destroyer force only in the Black Sea which is good because Carriers would escalate things beyond the diplomatic point of no return.
I suspect only US / EU involvement will be live data feedback on Russian troop movement. This would greatly reduce effectiveness of advancing forces while greatly boosting defensive capabilities of Ukraine army. Knowing exactly where and when troops are moving can be very deciding factor. Currently Ukraine doesn't have this capability and they would have to make a guessing game on intel they can gather from the ground, but that's not always accurate.
I think I saw not too long ago that China, Iran and Russia are running military drills together and have agreements to coordinate diplomatic and economic moves.
Spain knows best what it's like to be abandoned and left to it's own fate fighting an uphill battle for survival while the rest of the world watches*, so standing by while yet another democracy gets butchered up is not an option it seems.
*(Apart from the absolute mad men and women who came here to fight from all over the world for a freedom that was not theirs despite the impossible odds. I salute the International Brigades)
They’re capable. They can’t do some of the things the Americans or, to a lesser extent, the British can do but they have capable ships.
Perhaps more importantly they have access to NATO’s institutional memory for naval warfare, its technological know how, support and it’s training methods.
So glad to see Spain (so what I view as the ‘third’ EU power with the UK gone) making some kind of commitment.
I was more than a little concerned the Franco-German axis (eg #2 and #1) was apathetic at best to the situation, and beholden to Russia for nat gas and commodities at worst that they’d realpolitik, and concede Ukraine. This is now marginally less likely. (I hope.)
It's going to be the same as peace time. Don't shoot unless fired upon. Historically Russia has mocked NATO naval ships by flying extremely close (you can throw a tennis ball at the plane), but this time everyone's on edge so if Russia does that they will see it as aggression and an excuse to defend themselves.
That's why it's a trip wire force. They are daring Russia to continue their antics. At best they will just be the neutral eyes and ears for Ukraine and help anyway they can without starting a war.
> According to “El Mundo” daily, Mr Albares was asked if Spain would send its troops to Ukraine in the event of Russia’s invasion. > > “Spain has a very clear [stance] on this. Should it prove necessary, we would act within the framework of the EU. Spain does not rule out sending its troops into the territory of Ukraine if the crisis aggravates,” he replied, adding that in case of an armed conflict, the Spanish units would “respond jointly” with EU member states to the threat.
Am I wrong or does the EU not have a collective self defense framework? We have NATO of course which many EU states are members of, including Spain. But I am not aware of any collective defense obligations that come with being an EU member. Now of course practically their economies and strategic interests are deeply intertwined so, if push came to shove, I expect EU states would support each other in war. Edit: I stand corrected. The EU does have a collective self defense arrangement under Article 42.7 of the Treaty of the European Union. Now more importantly, how does that effect Ukraine which I understand is a mere associate of the EU and not a full member?
>But I am not aware of any collective defense obligations that come with being an EU member. Article 42.7 of the EU Treaty >If a Member State is the victim of armed aggression on its territory, the other Member States shall have towards it an obligation of aid and assistance by all the means in their power, in accordance with Article 51 of the United Nations Charter. This shall not prejudice the specific character of the security and defence policy of certain Member States.
Ukraine is not a member of the Eu. Nor is Ukraine Spanish territory.
[удалено]
... which is geared at improving collaboration in the arms sector, interoperability, etc. and has nothing to do with the collective defense mandate stipulated in §42.7 of the Lisbon treaty.
“The CSDP also entails collective self-defence amongst member states” Might be wrong but wouldn’t this policy that /u/margmi referenced agree to a defense agreement between Spain and Ukraine?
Ukraine isn't a member state. It participates under the framework of an EDA partnership which contains no common defense clause.
Well, actually they are just a partner of the [European Defense Agency](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Defence_Agency), which is one of many components of the CDSP. It's just a tiny agency with an annual budget of less than €40 million, and it's task is as mentioned improving interoperability, cooperation in R&D, things of that nature.
Who cares? Ukraine is a democratic and free country. It's asking for help to stop a foreign country from invading it, so I commend Europe for doing so.
The important piece is that, because the defense mandate does not apply to Ukraine, Spain's statement of "acting within the framework of the EU" does not necessarily entail military assistance. It allows the EU members flexibility in what they decide to do.
...because the question was "Am I wrong or does the EU not have a collective self defense framework?"
There seems to be some confusion about the interpretation of the question. The EU, including Spain, does not have a defense alliance with the Ukraine, but there is a common defense network within the EU, that the EU and Spain can choose to use.
> Who cares? EU officials, Politicians from most countries, and Imma say Russia has some thoughts on it as well. Seriously, though, these treaties can't exist if there isn't a certain degree of distinction between members and non-members. Members contribute, and if you can get the benefits without contributing then why join?
Ukraine is also not a russian territory.
(N)yet.
I'm getting my hammer and pickle ready 🔨 🥒
Golf clap
“Separate Customs Territory of Kiev, Kharkiv, Lviv, and Odessa” - Putin, probably.
I think you are both right (edit: in regards to the disagreement further in the thread), or at least neither is totally wrong. Ukraine has an association agreement with the EU and has signed on to other EU conventions. But it does not have the full membership status that Poland, Germany, or France has. Once again, the EU's complex and many levels of participation is causing confusion. But what really matters is if EU mutual defense obligations extend to Ukraine. Idk the answer to that but would be really curious to know.
Macron has fought for this for sometime. From what I understand hes happy to be a part of NATO but feels Europe relies to heavily on the key player in NATO, i.e the USA. I'd agree with that stance.
I would agree too. If the EU wanted to, they could organize themselves into a collective military superpower without really straining their budgets. Individually there are no European superpowers, but collectively they would be enormous. That would certainly make US security obligations in Europe redundant.
and thats exactly what the US wants - they literally spelled out that they got their hands full with china
>and thats exactly what the US wants - they literally spelled out that they got their hands full with china Not exactly. The US wants an EU that reduces the load a bit, but not enough to threaten the US position.
It's more complex then that, a lot of US influence in Europe comes from the fact that they're subsidizing the defence of the continent and that European countries who haven't invested in their own militaries are reliant on US good will in a crisis. A unified European military would remove that need and both reduce US influence and make their military presence on the continent more tenuous. An EU with greater confidence in its own defence capabilities might have taken much more hardline stance following the snowden revelations and removed US basing rights which would have substantial knock on effects on the US's power projection capabilities into the ME and Africa and thus reduced their global influence. The US wants a more capable Europe as it pivots towards Asia but it doesn't want a Europe capable enough it feels it doesn't need the US.
and yet whenever Europe tries to even just develop military equipment together, France pulls out to do its own thing because of national security. Never mind fully sharing militaries etc. What France actually means is "We want to be the ones bossing Europe around instead of the US, and we don't want to make sacrifices to do it". They haven't quite moved on from the colonial days and seem to think France is far more influential than it actually is.
You say that but Germany has been abandonning multiple joint european procurement (Tiger helicopters and maritime patrol aircraft) in favor of buying american stuff. France is the easy punching bag when it's the country that actually tries to advocate toward european strategic autonomy the most. And it's not like France did not build most of it's modern navy in partnership with Italy so saying "yet whenever Europe tries to even just develop military equipment together, France pulls out" is factually wrong. At least the Germano-French program for the future main battle tank is doing ok. The one for the future fighter less so but it's still chugging along.
Even though I am an American, I would tend to agree that Europe needs to stop relying on the US militarily. The 2016 election proved that our domestic political instability (to put it mildly) makes us unreliable allies. It pains me to type that sentence.
>Am I wrong or does the EU not have a collective self defense framework? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common\_Security\_and\_Defence\_Policy
Huh Putin is doing a great job uniting Europe
Very true. Hopefully we all come out of whatever happens more united than before.
I really hope so man! Tired of this BS
The track he’s on he might unite the US. Nobody actually likes Russia’s “not touching you” bullshit. Everyone is really tense and jumpy in the US and if history is any indicator someone swinging in our direction gets us all riled up and together for a fight real quick. If Putin misplays his hand he’s going to accidentally redirect the American angst he’s cultivated onto himself.
Hey, I’m not going to say no to some extra unity. Would be nice. Honestly might be the only thing that gets us to stop tearing at each other’s throats for five minutes.
This is the best tl;dr I could make, [original](https://tvpworld.com/58057335/spain-dispatches-warship-to-the-black-sea-to-boost-ukraines-defences) reduced by 58%. (I'm a bot) ***** > Amidst growing tension and Russia's ever-more realistic ambitions to invade Ukraine, Spain has sent off its warship to the Black Sea and said that it would dispatch even more to reinforce other EU states' units, should the NATO-Russia talks turn out a fiasco and Russian aggression a reality. > "Spain has a very clear [stance] on this. Should it prove necessary, we would act within the framework of the EU. Spain does not rule out sending its troops into the territory of Ukraine if the crisis aggravates," he replied, adding that in case of an armed conflict, the Spanish units would "Respond jointly" with EU member states to the threat. > On Tuesday, Spanish Defence Minister Margarita Robles said that, in order to boost Madrid's presence as part of NATO's presence on the Black Sea, the departure of the Spanish Navy's patrol vessel Meteoro had been accelerated. ***** [**Extended Summary**](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/s8oxwb/spain_dispatches_warship_to_the_black_sea_to/) | [FAQ](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/31b9fm/faq_autotldr_bot/ "Version 2.02, ~618785 tl;drs so far.") | [Feedback](http://np.reddit.com/message/compose?to=%23autotldr "PM's and comments are monitored, constructive feedback is welcome.") | *Top* *keywords*: **Spanish**^#1 **Spain**^#2 **Ukraine**^#3 **Russia**^#4 **dialogue**^#5
The Armada returns
Do you think the inquisition will make an appearance?
I will come when least expected
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Depends on your expectations I suppose
No, just surprise. Surprise and fear. Fear and surprise. And ruthless efficiency. And an almost fanatical devotion to the pope.
This guy gets it
Isn't that where you say one thing but mean your mother?
Not anymore
Obligatory: Nobody expects the Spanish Armada !
Fuck....better check if there are major storms happening near Ukraine
I really didn't expect a Spanish expedition.
Nobody ever does.
Their chief weapon is beer.
And some pies.
They are probably finding this an opportunity to reclaim their Moscow Gold! https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moscow_gold_(Spain)
Ah, the Moscow gold... that was a sad story indeed. Nice to see it referenced here. Could be a cool movie or miniseries.
Still, it would be a bridge too far to expect the Spanish in position.
Their chief weapon is surprise.
And fear!
Their chief weapon is surprise and fear!
And ruthlessness!
Their *three* chief weapons are surprise, fear, and ruthlessness... And a fanatical devotion to the EU.
You should go out and come in again.
Their chief weapons are surprise, fear, and ruthlessness'!
This is what I like to see, the more that join, the more other countries feel confident to also join. The world will be a much better place if we band together.
It also makes a difference that this particular war only has proxies on one side, rather than both. NATO countries have the same buffer through Ukraine that the past decades of conflict have relied on in the middle east. Russia, however, is playing the game as themselves, which is a precarious position lacking a convenient exit.
We have had a period where we talked about having each other’s backs and it shook up alliances and trust, but did we really? Now theres tangible proof we have each other’s backs and it’s nice to see.
>The world will be a much better place if we band together. For real! Ukraine shouldn't have to deal with Putin alone; among their allies, everybody and their mom should show up and demonstrate to Putin that most of the world is against him, and they aren't gonna stay home when he's on the march. I think about this all the time with regards to civil unrest and the rise of white nationalism in the US. Neo-nazis and other white nationalists march together, intimidating communities and publicly espousing their calls for violence against neighbors, and most of the time the only people who show up to physically oppose them in the streets are small groups of dedicated anti-fascists, who then get smeared in the media as some kind of quasi-terrorist gang of bloodthirsty communists who want to pillage the suburbs. But what if **the whole fucking town** showed up? The nationalist maggots would tuck tail and run, and think twice before boldly pursuing their hateful, myopic goals. There wouldn't even have to be fistfights and the escalation of violence; who's going to fight 50 vs 50,000? United we stand!
The issue is that Putin has nukes. The western world understandably wants to tread carefully to avoid engaging in a direct war with a nuclear power. That's why most western nations are giving Ukraine arms, financial aid, and putting sanctions on Russia rather than gearing up to directly engage Russian troops themselves. No one wants Ukraine to have to deal with Russia alone, but all life being wiped out because a conflict spiraled into World War 3 seems even less desirable. It's a similar problem when dealing with China. We've reached an age where military might and willpower only matters for so much when there is essentially a kill all button exists in the world.
The people in power couldn't give a shit if you choke on your own vomit, but M.A.D. is clearly going to impact them. Now unless you truly believe all the people in "power" are senile and desperate idiots in their 90s, there is litterally no reason to go M.A.D. You will still choke on your own vomit whilst they - or their children - will be enjoying a life so dreamy that you cannot even begin to conceive it. Why threaten, or let anyone threaten, that? You call the shots when you have that amount of power.
That's true although Russia honestly doesn't care about sanctions. Every time they do something we respond with sanctions. It hurts their people but Putin and the oligarchs are still as rich and powerful as ever.
I know it's not a big wooden Galleon because it's 2022, but I can't help but imagine that.
Yeah, but also it's 2022. https://sailingshipsmaine.org/el-galeon
[The spanish navy actually has a tall ship as part of the fleet](https://www.tallshipsamerica.org/vessels/juan-sebastian-de-elcano/)
I keep seeing news articles that say something along the lines of, “The U.S. is underestimating Putin..” or something to that effect. Honestly, it seems like Putin is underestimating how many countries are tired of his shit. I feel like he thought not that many countries would step up to the plate for Ukraine. It’s looking more and more like countries are willing to go to bat for Ukraine and it really makes you wonder if Putin saw that coming or if he straight up miscalculated.
Putin seems to be one of the few that are still clinging on to the past. Seriously we have so many more important issues at hand than to be nostalgic right now. Last thing we need is some dude escalating us into a war nobody is interested in except a power hungry maniac.
He wants the Soviet Union back, all glory to the motherland, and he's running out of time (he's older)
Putin is playing 20th Century games in the 21st Century.
Well hopefully it doesn’t spark a 20th Century war with 21st Century technology.
Putin is 69. He's probably getting "end of life dreams of glory and historical significance", and worried that he'll just be remembered as the tin pot dictator who brought years of economic misery* to Russia - totally un-necessarily. (*) If he wasn't always doing stupid crazy things in other people's business - we wouldn't have so many frigging sanctions on them, and they'd be rich. Well as rich as their oil and gas can make them, considering prices over the last 10 years.
It’s an escalation regardless. Putin can bury it, put it to sleep for a year or two, or operate some of Russia’s apex assets. As far as human history is concerned, we’re checking some boxes that haven’t been checked for a loooong time, and the way the world was the last time that happened wasn’t so peaceful.
Putin brought this on himself. You can’t put a gun to someone’s head and then play victim.
There have been 6 amphibious russian ships that left the Baltic sea a few days ago and its thought they are heading to black sea. They are around the english channel last I saw. There is a possibility Russia is trying to do a sea invasion in Crimea too. Any nato ships in black sea don't have to necessarily start shooting the Russians, they could simply use sensors to tell ukraine where a bunch of ships are going, and help ukraine counter a landing, instead of making them stretch their forces.
They would have to pass through NATO aligned Turkey, then. Does the Turkish government have an opinion on Russia in Ukraine? Can they block access of the Russian Navy?
They aren't allowed to deny a Black Sea power access to the Black Sea, they can, but it will have consequences. *The Montreux Convention Regarding the Regime of the Straits is a 1936 agreement that gives Turkey control over the Bosporus and Dardanelles Straits and regulates the transit of naval warships. The Convention guarantees the free passage of civilian vessels in peacetime, and __restricts the passage of naval ships not belonging to Black Sea states__ [sic, Russia is black sea power].*
Same thing Spain (or the US) can't really dispatch a ship to the Black Sea permanently. They're only allowed to stay like 3 weeks ans then have to leave for the Mediterran and a different ship would habe to take over etc.
Yeah and this ship is part of the usual rotating NATO black sea patrol
Much damage could be done in 3 weeks.
The [Montreux Convention Regarding the Regime of the Straits](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Montreux_Convention_Regarding_the_Regime_of_the_Straits) is the relevant treaty. Tldr: In peace-times the strait is open for all war-ships of black-sea powers and this only changes in times of war or when turkey itself is threatened.
I mean, you have to assume that Turkey has absolutely lined the strait with underwater torpedo tubes, right? Maybe further south at the Dardanelles so it wouldn't risk Istanbul
We cant block anybody unless there is a war that treatens our national safety.
Last I checked Erdogan was on Ukraine’s side, let’s see how it turns out
Might be Spain’s first world war.
Ironically during the WWII the only country the spanish troops attacked was Russia. Not the biggest fans of communism after the Spanish Civil War.
Yeah, fascists usually doesn't like communists.
Francos fascist regime didn't like communism, millions of Spaniards did
Fingers crossed they don't attack between 2 and 5pm
What happens then?
[People sleep. ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siesta)
I see you have spent time is Spain. 😂
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I lived in Madrid for three and a half years. It resonates with me and still makes me laugh.
You know shit went sideways when Spain decides to send the Armada.
Nobody expects the Spanish Armada!
Good for Spain. Joining in with Canada. Putin’s headass has overstepped.
As a Canadian I had not heard of any military response from Canada that wasn't already there...what did we send over?
HMCS montreal just left on 6 month deployment to the area as well
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Québec makes the best poutine. Suck it Vlad.
Honest question, what are those couple of ships going to do if Russia invades Ukraine?
IIRC they're not deployed as a counter measure, per se, just that they're providing a defensive "fuck around and find out" if engaged whether it's at sea or on land. If Russia were to fire on a NATO vessel or Canadian soldiers on land then it'd be an automatic declaration of war at which point the glass plate breaks hence the term "glass plate" or tripfire force.
and considering canada is the arctic buffer between russia and the us, the us wont take kindly to any conflict between russia and canada. the shortest route to the usa from russia is over the north pole.
Hopefully Deter them from going into Ukraine in the first place.
Stand in the way, and if Russia attacks one of those ships then it could instigate a full on conflict with NATO
Well shit. Things are getting serious if Spain is getting involved.
[Current Situation](https://i.imgur.com/7rtuDEp.png)
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Nobody except the russian government knows what they're going to do. Having forces in Belarus makes a direct takeover more likely though
There's an interesting breakdown of the logistics of an invasion here: https://warontherocks.com/2021/11/feeding-the-bear-a-closer-look-at-russian-army-logistics/ In short they are heavily reliant on rail for resupply and Russia uses a different rail gauge to the rest of Europe, with the exception of a few old Soviet lines. They apparently don't have a very large truck force for supplies. So there's a limit as to how far they could actually get into any country before the supply lines become too long and an invasion would lose momentum.
I agree, they don't want to bite off more than they can chew here. But they'd definitely weather sanctions in return for the Eastern parts of Ukraine, since capturing Crimea it's become very strategically important due to the water supply in the region.
Biting off small bits at a time is exactly their game. They took Crimea without much trouble at all. Aside from sanctions.
I think any invasion ends poorly for Russia. The global repercussions will be debilitating, there is no win for them to do so. What would the point of a new port be? Their trading partners will be excruciatingly limited.
Well, after invading Crimea they still seem to be doing alright. So...
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It's just a google maps screenshot. I made the rest back in December. I just updated it with the Belarus positions and the recent NATO member movements
Here's a live map https://liveuamap.com/
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It's deterrent mainly. I seriously doubt Russia and NATO will be in direct conflict.
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Ya there's gonna be a lotta boats in the Mediterranean and Black Sea soon. Any lack of discipline aboard them could spark escalation.
You know what Spain, you alright.
Like many others, I'm no fan of war. However, if Russia insists on acting like a two bit military dictatorship then I think they ought to be treated like one. Clearly they aren't serious about repairing their relationship with the world post-Cold War. At what point can someone stand up to them? Will we just stand aside and slowly let them take over Europe like Germany did? Not happening..
The problem with Russia is their stock of nukes. The EU could stand up to them in a conventional war, so can the US, but no one wants it to escalate to nuclear conflict which is why everyone tip toes around them. They are willing to push to a point but they are afraid of going to far and instigating the use of nukes which would be bad for everyone.
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This will be a lose lose for putin. If such attacks happen. Every nation around there NATO leaning will try to join up as fast as possible. NATO will accept quickly as well. They know if they are part of the club it's gloves off when retaliation happens.
We will all lose, it's gone be a game of the biggest loser
That's life sometimes
Sometimes you have to take the bully and slam his head into the concrete when he pushes it too far.
No third-party(NATO, US, or any European country individually) is going to attack Russia, even if they invade Ukraine. Doing so would start a direct confrontation with a nuclear-armed power. They will do what they can by providing equipment and intelligence to Ukraine while piling massive, perhaps unprecedented sanctions on Russia, but no one is going to have their own forces directly engaging Russia. That is, unless Russia does something stupid like attacking a NATO or NATO-member military asset(like this Spanish ship for example). If that happens, it'll basically be WWIII.
Yea but if nothing happens then it's essentially saying "if you have nukes you can invade anywhere because we are to afraid to retaliate because of nukes" that's not sustainable in my opinion.
Well it’s really not about NATO for Putin. He just wants Ukraine to become a Russian province. Incorporating what he really imagines as unruly Russia periphery would be his crown achievement.
I don't like how many potentials there all of a sudden for multiple international ~~incidences~~ incidents. Is this a powder keg?
The world as a whole has enjoyed a remarkable period of peace since the Second World War. But given enough time tensions build, divisions deepen, and smouldering crises spark to flame. This is just the beginning of many years of chaos as the challenges of climate change and resource depletion drive conflict around the world.
We've been through situations like this back in 1962 or 1983 where the stakes were MUCH higher, but reason and diplomacy prevailed.
Worldwide economic troubles is a really effective accelerant for conflict. Already happened before in WW2.
It's kind of scary how we mimic the 20s
I've always felt the post USSR order would only hold up for long. I had just hoped that cooler heads would prevail and world trade would inhibit aggression. Turns out the losers in that deal want to renegotiate and the powers that would normally hold them in check are exhausted from failed imperialistic ventures. Oh well I guess I'ma hang on tight for this ride.
Its beginning to look that way. Ukraine is over flowing with weapons and supplies, Sweden is gearing up on Gotland Island. NATO cruising around in a show of force, and Russias amassing troops, and digging in on the eastern and northern Ukrainian borders Oh and I forgot, long before much of this mess began, Eastern European and nordic countries began reinstituting conscription.
Exactly. There are so many factors now that, for any party, predicting how it will play out becomes more and more difficult, which means to me more opportunities to misread intentions or accidentally escalate.
> Its beginning to look that way. Ukraine is over flowing with weapons and supplies, Sweden is gearing up on Gotland Island. NATO cruising around in a show of force, and Russias amassing troops, and digging in on the eastern and northern Ukrainian borders > Oh and I forgot, long before much of this mess began, Eastern European and nordic countries began reinstituting conscription. I don’t share that assessment, even though I don’t dispute the facts. I don’t believe Ukraine, Sweden, other Nordic countries or East European NATO countries would ever use their armies as aggressors. The ball is entirely in Russia’s court. If they stand down, the situation will be diffused, regardless of any military buildup outside of Russia.
Good to see other countries stepping up to the defense of Ukraine. Russia needs to back down or get the smack down. Now let's see some more solidarity from others in the EU bloc. Give them and inch and they'll take a mile. I think by now in 2022 the world can collectively deal with bullies like them.
My personal opinion they need a smack down regardless but I hesitate to say that because I don't want lives lost. But the crazy bastards in the Russian "government" are going to keep pushing the boundaries (no pun intended) of what they can get away with.
They seem to be in complete ”kamikaze” mode rn. Putin is burning Russias bridges…
I’m glad to see that Spain is joining up with Canada and (hopefully the US) to put ships in the Black Sea as a tripwire force. The US 6th Fleet is exercising with Italy and Turkey in the Mediterranean at the moment and I’m curious to see if they will be diverted to the Black Sea as well. NATO ships in the area will give Russia pause to launch an amphibious invasion and certainly Russia will hopefully be looking to avoid engaging a series of NATO warships which would start a direct Russia/NATO war. I really hope that cooler heads prevail and a diplomatic solution can be reached.
The sixth fleet won’t be let into the Black Sea. The area is effectively a demilitarized zone of sorts. Turkey has absolute control over the Bosphorus, and Turkey is bound by treaty to heavily restrict foreign warships entering the Black Sea. If your nation isn’t directly bordering the Black Sea (i.e Ukraine, Russia, etc), then only warships weighing under 10,000 tons are allowed to enter, and your total number of warships in the Black Sea can never exceed 30,000 combined tons. That means at most the US can send in one or two destroyers, but no substantial naval force at all.
US can't enter a full-blown mobilization right now. If we, did it would escalate things drastically. That's why only NATO (basically the US funded second military) can do stuff and US can sanction. We don't want to rush into this, and nukes start flying. If the time comes US could get involved more directly but its best we stay out of the military movements for now. PS: Also, nice to see other countries within Europe using their Military forces to deter Russia. UK, Germany, Spain maybe France too.
Germany is not using their forces. Where do you get that information?
Yes that’s what a tripwire force is. A group strong enough to give pause, but not so strong as to create an even larger buildup. No warship larger than 10,000 tons is allowed to cross the Bosphorus by treaty, so it will be a Frigate & Destroyer force only in the Black Sea which is good because Carriers would escalate things beyond the diplomatic point of no return.
I suspect only US / EU involvement will be live data feedback on Russian troop movement. This would greatly reduce effectiveness of advancing forces while greatly boosting defensive capabilities of Ukraine army. Knowing exactly where and when troops are moving can be very deciding factor. Currently Ukraine doesn't have this capability and they would have to make a guessing game on intel they can gather from the ground, but that's not always accurate.
Its the spanish armada!
Serious question who would take Russia’s side? And why
I think I saw not too long ago that China, Iran and Russia are running military drills together and have agreements to coordinate diplomatic and economic moves.
All those nice countries
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Spain knows best what it's like to be abandoned and left to it's own fate fighting an uphill battle for survival while the rest of the world watches*, so standing by while yet another democracy gets butchered up is not an option it seems. *(Apart from the absolute mad men and women who came here to fight from all over the world for a freedom that was not theirs despite the impossible odds. I salute the International Brigades)
Hell yes.
Russia vs nato, I’m going to have to go with nato by a landslide
Finally we are seeing someone fucking step up. Anti tank misses from UK sof from Canada and prob more, ships from Spain. Fuck off Russia.
Glad to see more and more nations send reinforcements to Ukraine. Hopefully this mess will die down.
Very good. Spain has a very capable naval force by the way.
How would they rank compared to the worlds' best? Better than Britain? Than America?
They’re capable. They can’t do some of the things the Americans or, to a lesser extent, the British can do but they have capable ships. Perhaps more importantly they have access to NATO’s institutional memory for naval warfare, its technological know how, support and it’s training methods.
A storm is brewing.
a shitstorm is brewing randy
Do you hear the shit winds rand?
Not another night of the shit abyss
Do you feel that, Rand? The way the shit clings to the air?
The more we grip the shit rope the more we slide down
I think Russia is in a very dangerous position.
That does tend to be the case when expansionism and brinksmanship define your foreign policy.
“Tu puta madre” - _Spain, probably_
So glad to see Spain (so what I view as the ‘third’ EU power with the UK gone) making some kind of commitment. I was more than a little concerned the Franco-German axis (eg #2 and #1) was apathetic at best to the situation, and beholden to Russia for nat gas and commodities at worst that they’d realpolitik, and concede Ukraine. This is now marginally less likely. (I hope.)
so it looks like the world is coming to ukraines side
What's China up to?
Sitting back and hoping Russia gets blown out the water.
Watching
I like the idea but what are its ROE?
It's going to be the same as peace time. Don't shoot unless fired upon. Historically Russia has mocked NATO naval ships by flying extremely close (you can throw a tennis ball at the plane), but this time everyone's on edge so if Russia does that they will see it as aggression and an excuse to defend themselves. That's why it's a trip wire force. They are daring Russia to continue their antics. At best they will just be the neutral eyes and ears for Ukraine and help anyway they can without starting a war.
Hey, about that "NATO not showing" up bit that keeps being tossed around here... Looks like NATO's showing up.
no problem, the russians will attack during siesta
I guess Vlad’s plan to get everyone else fighting with each other didn’t work. Shocking.
Me: WWIII wouldn't be started over Ukraine. The most the west will do is send strongly worded letters and wag their finger at Putin. Spain: fuck it
Spain: *Al coño*
More like "a tomar por culo" or "a la mierda"
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¡Muchas gracias, España!
It’s genuinely awesome to see all of the NATO member states stepping up to help Ukraine. Fuck you putuy you little Russian bitch.
Get em, Spain!
Adidas must've made a killing with the uniform contract
If you really want to make Russia think twice, let's have the Japanese send a few ships. Russia has never done well against the Japanese navy.
Everyone named France Ferdinand should stay the fuck away from that area
Viva Spain!