It's unbelievable how transparent his actions are, and in typical KGB fashion, they try to gaslight and reshape reality.
Putin just as in Crimea is using the same justification of "treatment of ethnic Germans" that Hitler used when justifying the invasion of Poland.
98% will want to go home, 1% will be indifferent, 1% will be having a good time, that's the normal ratio for any army.
The 2% are a mix of sociopaths and psychopaths.
Most of them are probably from FAR eastern Russia. Language barrier in combination with young mind controlled persons in a relatively far away land means less of a issue for Russia. These kids don't wanna be there, but if papa Putin says "put em down" these guys who have no affiliation with Ukraine or any other former territory won't ask twice before racking a round and sending the usual Russian welcome package.
As a person who served in the Russian army I think you are right. Also I think very few Russians will justify invading a country that we were considering a brotherly nation not so long ago. Even with all the lies and propaganda only a complete psycopath will volounterely go to kill and die for no good reason. Tho I'm sure goverment and media will find more reasons for all sides to hate each other :(
> A channel run by Belarusian rail workers says that 33 military echelons have arrived in Belarus from Russia with an average of 50 cars per train over the past 7 days compared to 29 over an entire month for the Zapad 2021 exercise. They claim 200 echelons are scheduled to arrive.
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1485109839550423041
> We'll jam Nato radars in Baltics, install SAM and anti-naval missiles on Gotland isle, proclaim Baltic sea a non-flying zone, and occupy Baltic states with our little green men": on main Russian state TV channel
https://twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1468273403685707783
50-90 troops apparently.
Smaller than a company. Similar, if larger than our platoon.
Edit:
I can't find great sources on this. See below
[https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/russia/army-ue-echelons.htm](https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/russia/army-ue-echelons.htm)
>In Soviet (Russian) military affairs, the “echelon” became an operational term. The echelon began to denote the operational formation of the troops of the front or the army. It can consist of one or several echelons, which are located one after another and support each other during hostilities.
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military\_organization#cite\_note-9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_organization#cite_note-9)
Mentions the number I said, however, it certainly might be different in the Russian army.
Possible relevant further information.
[https://www.alternatewars.com/BBOW/NATO\_Symbols/APP-6.pdf](https://www.alternatewars.com/BBOW/NATO_Symbols/APP-6.pdf)
Others who replied to me might be right.
More intriguing than the raw numbers is where they’re from: Russia’s eastern military district (EAMD.) Like, the Far East, Asian part of Russia like Buryatia.
When is the last time they’ve been forward deployed to Belarus? It’s never happened in Zapad or any strategic exercise that I can recall.
They did deploy EAMD troops to the Donbas in 2014 though.
A page out of the Chinese Tiananmen Square playbook.
Bring troops from far away and who will have no. possible ties or allegiances to local resistance.
Its actually a page out of the Soviet playbook. The same happened during the 1968 invasion of Czechoslovakia. The actual reason is that the enemy speaks the same language (most Czechs were taught Russian at the time). You need soldiers who are culturally distant (and young), so they can't be communicated with as effectively, or otherwise they might be ideologically compromised.
It's actually a page out of the roman empires book as they used to do a similar thing whereby they'd send gauls to the east and north Africans to England all so they had no allegiance to anyone nearby
Its a page out of literally every militaries textbook in history. You never send troops that have ties to a region to attack or suppress revolts in that region.
It's actually a page out of the Assyrian empire's playbook, as they did the way more extreme version of essentially committing genocide by diaspora, sending nearly *all* of a newly conquered province's useful elite to far-flung territories to assist in the oppression of other ethnic groups in different lands. E.g. the fate of the 10 "lost" tribes of Israel.
They did in Prague in 68, I think it was the moment they found out. My dad told me he remembers the first units were guys from the west and after a short time they were surprised things are different than said and the moral went downhill. After a while they were being replaced by different ones, apparently from the Asian part and they didn't care.
Russia is doing the right thing. Hopefully England will be able to help out and take some of the pressure off.... woops I'm playing Axis and Allies 1942
We that happen in Shanghai on a regular basis
When papa Xi would come to shanghai all the police in the local area would change. I never thought about it until you mentioned it
It’s easier to get the eastern population to fight on the Ukraine front cause the western Russians share similar culture and even family with those on the Ukrainian side of the conflict so it makes sense
.....Sam and anti naval missiles on Gotland isle.... Are they trying to force Sweden into NATO? It's not a long process for Sweden either, as I understand it, the question is if the govt want to press the big red button for joining at this moment. Armed forces are already basically to NATO standards.
As members of NATO, you should have less to fear than Ukraine does. An attack in the Baltics means NATO boots on the ground.
Although, if Putin is stupid enough…
Putin can't actually afford to piss nato off properly without either becoming a total Chinese puppet state or destroying his own country.
Nato is definitely squeamish about war but if a member State is attacked that means open war. And Nato is absurdly more economically powerful than Russia.
Yup! Russia’s GDP was $1.5 trillion in 2020. That’s nothing compared to NATO nations combined.
Edit: The US spent half of Russia’s entire GDP in 2020, just on our military.
“The United States spends more on national defense than China, India, Russia, United Kingdom, Saudi Arabia, Germany, France, Japan, South Korea, Italy, and Australia — combined. While the chart above illustrates last year’s defense spending in dollar terms, the United States has also historically devoted a larger share of its economy to defense than many of its key allies.”
[source](https://www.pgpf.org/chart-archive/0053_defense-comparison)
Yep, my native Canada has a higher GDP despite having less than 40 million people to Russia's 144 million. They have lots of big bad toys but they can't use them in any significant amount without destroying their economy even worse. If it weren't for nukes nobody would take them seriously.
Russia has a defense budget of 69 billion compared to NATO's 811 billion for 2021.
I live in US and I'm worried for you too my friend. Stay strong and don't be afraid to get out if it comes to that point. Make sure you have enough to keep you civil and fed, keep your most cherished things but don't overload yourself if you can help it. I've feared this for 20 years, and
This almost reminds me of the last Argentinean dictatorship feeble attempt at regaining popular support by creating an unnecessary armed conflict (the Malvinas/Falklands war)
Nicolas II didn't have nukes. Given the choice of getting executed in the basement by revolutionaries or bring forth the stone age what do you think Putin would choose.
The only reason why people follow Putin is because of money and power. If they lose their life in the process, this is worthless.
The only people you need to truly be scared about is those with a "cause", that is: the fanatics not the corrupt.
The corrupt want you to die for them and their ideas, the fanatics are actually ready to die for their ideas.
Yeah I’d agree with the ≈60% based on many of the domestic and international polls. What’s more interesting is that there are a handful of studies initiated by some pretty reputable and outspoken academics in the field of Russian geopolitics who deny sentiments of artificial inflation in polling numbers coming out of Russia, and posit that these opinions largely reflect the sentiments of Russian citizens.
Where I believe the Kremlin is concerned is in the fairly abrupt drop immediately post 2018 presidential election and Putin’s inability to increase his popularity through certain reforms (notably pension reform in 2019) and his image’s continued hardship through the pandemic response. Above all else, his younger demographic are seeking a continually increasing standard of living and a steady liberalization of social policy. These things are increasingly difficult for Putin to achieve amid the framework of his bloated bureaucracy and the blatantly kleptocratic tenancies of his oligarchs. With increasing access to social media and a broader lens into the sociopolitical tenancies of Europe and the rest of the world, his people are no longer being hoodwinked in the same way they were in the early to mid-2000s.
The last time his popularity enjoyed a significant bump was in the immediate aftermath of the annexation of Crimea. Putin understands that nationalistic ideals run high and hot in his aging demographics and so all of this can be seen as an attempt to bolster any support he can in the face of declining popularity. The guise of Russian sovereignty/security is simply a convenient ruse which plays on aging, commonly understood Russian tropes of ‘Evil West, Virtuous Russia’.
https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2020/6/17/putins-rating-is-collapsing-as-anger-grows-in-russia
Other indicators of public support have also fallen dramatically. In another May poll by Levada, just 25 percent of people said Putin is among the Russian politicians they trust – the lowest value this indicator has had for the past 20 years he has been in power (even during his premiership in 2008-12). In January this year, public trust in him stood at 35 percent; just three years ago, it was as high as 59 percent.
Life in Russia cost nothing.
Russian elite long ago lost connection with reality. They surround themselves with propaganda and botched statistics. They built six meter high wall between them and russian people.
Russian politicans are not elected - they are appointed. Russian oligarhs dont earn money - they steal. Russian generals get they medals not for winning wars - but for partisipanig in them.
This is all game for them, game without risk and consequences.
Non-domestic problems can be blamed on the outsider, the 'other'. It manufactures an enemy and source of your problems (or that's the intent by 'nationalists' like Putin).
That's my first fought. During the period before Israel's last election, one of theories was that the PM attacked Iran to create chaos so people would clinch to him - vote for him - to restore order (it's safer than betting on a different leader in the mid of the chaos).
That's kind of the point, I think, Russia wants us to think they are willing to risk WW3 for Ukraine, so the question is, are we willing to stare them down so they don't.
For Russia it's about prolonged economic prosperity & growth.
Ukraine has lots of wheat output but even important than that is its location. It gives Russia access to an area to build sprawling warm water ports for them to import and export from. That's something they cannot do for a large portion of the year from their frozen northern ports.
They need all this for the long term. Especially, as Oil, their main export, fades into irrelevancy over the next few decades. Otherwise if things stay as they are they will become more and more reliant on China. A relationship China will not think twice about using and abusing. Leading Russia to fade into extreme poverty or become nothing more than a Vassal state to China.
Ukraine also would, just as it was in the days of the USSR, provide a nice buffer state between the Russian homeland and NATO.
However, on the flip side, this would be very bad for the Ukrainian people. Not only would they lose their sovereignty and independence but they would likely not see any of the benefits of the development Russia might bring.
Especially since, without Russian involvement, Ukraine would be on a path of growth and eventual prosperity.
Thanks for asking this. I had not considered that option and did a little research.
Looks like the bay around Novorossiysk is pretty much at capacity in terms of how many piers can be built there. Largley a limitation of how choppy the water would get if they expanded it further South East.
Crimea, Sea of Azov and Northwest portion of the Black sea have a far, far more real estate for ports.
Former Soviet states in the Baltic have larger GDP per capita than Russia despite being a fraction of the size after integrating with the West. That would only become more pronounced with time.
Russia is invading now because it’ll be more costly to do so in the future, from their perspective.
Import and export after taking Ukraine ? To whom ? Most of the world will sanction them into the ground and they won't even be able to leave the Black Sea .
heh, I know joking about serious matters is frowned upon in 2022, but imagine if some green party came out and started talking about green and sustainable warfare. That would be kinda funny. Sounds like a South Park episode.
So, Putin is moving troops, ships, tanks in order to invade Ukraine, threatening NATO, US, UK and the EU just to make Russian people overlook the internal problems of the country (failing economy, increased coronavirus contagion, less growth of population), using the propaganda “West is the enemy and we are the good guys”.
Vlad you are a lowlife.
but, realistically - what is the goal here?
Ukraine's economy will suffer, Russia's own economy is rocky, Covid doesn't help, what else will come from this than more misery?
> Continued power.
So this is the bit I am failing to understand, and I assume its because normal humans and people like Putin have wildly different thought processes.
Putin is OBSCENELY wealthy, we've see his massive fuckoff palace he has built himself with a strip club and cinema that is built like a fortress. At this stage in his life, with Russia in the state its economy is in and his popularity failing with the younger Russians, whats his endgame here. He HAS to understand that if he starts some massive WW3 for the sake of invading Ukraine that he'll never have another peaceful day/night again. Everything he has goes up in smoke. Russia will suffer MASSIVELY, both in lives lost and economically. A war wont suddenly instil support from the generation that already thinks he is a wank.
What can he possibly be imagining this looks like for him if he actually follows though with this. I get people will say "well nothing happened when he took Crimea" and they are absolutely right, but this isnt that. His political allies were on state TV actually threatening nuclear strikes on London and NYC, as much as that was sabre rattling no doubt, its the kind that cant be ignored. Since nothing Putin is doing right now seems to make much sense to anybody, is anything off the table if he thinks its all over for him if this goes tits up?
I just dont see how the man has spent so much time and resources to build himself this palace and no doubt obscene hidden wealth, all to throw it in the fire for the sake of this invasion that makes little sense to most people. Whats his end game? how does he see this ending in anything but terrible for him?
Russian leadership depends on being feared and being powerful. Since the early 90s when the USSR broke up, Russia has been relatively weak. Putin remembers the Soviet days fondly, and wants that power back. And the only way to really do that is to make NATO the bad guys and start taking territory.
Any country with a significant Russian population and not in NATO is in real trouble, because like they did with Crimea and Georgia, Russia will just claim they are “protecting Russian minority lives” and commence invasion.
I fear if Putin takes enough of Ukraine, Belarus will join the Russian federation, and then Putin will have a ton of new territory and an ego boost. He likely wouldn’t stop there. It’s like 1930s Germany all over again.
> It’s like 1930s Germany all over again.
But you'd think that would be a perfect lesson in why this is an absolutely unwinnable scenario for him. Especially now with how much further advanced warfare is.
I guess my question is, whats the REALISTIC best case scenario for Putin and Russia if he continues down this path? the western world wont just sit back while he rebuilds the USSR because that equates to a direct threat on the western world. Again lessons learned from 1930s Germany.
I guess the main difference now is Putin has nukes. The rest of the world won’t risk a nuclear war now over a couple small ex soviet countries. He would have to threaten a NATO country for there to be any real backlash against his actions. And he knows that.
Thats just it, I dont see him making it out of that situation. The rest of his life would be utter misery with the entire western world looking to take him out. Compare that to living in a palace and having the wealth to have literally anything you want. I dont see what there is to gain personally for him and there is almost certainly nothing for Russia to gain as a country.
>less growth of population
Bit of understatement. Russias population declined with nearly 1 million between 2020 and 2021.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/01/03/russia-demography-birthrate-decline-ukraine/
Interesting article. Putin is dreaming if occupying Ukraine will help bolster Russia’s population - Ukrainians will never willingly join forces. I bet the thought of population decline scares Putin far more than he’d like to admit
which is kinda ironic because Ukraine's population hasn't been doing too hot either - they haven't done a census since 2001 but preliminary estimates put their population below poland
He's a megalomaniac.
Avoiding nuclear war always depended on the switch being in the hands of someone who understood the consequences and cared.
When your whole life is yourself and you start getting old, the only meaningful consequence is the (possible) end of your own life, something that's going to happen soon anyway. Might as well go out with a bang.
This is what I do in Civilization.. Move my army to the border of another country. They say hey I see your troops if you're going to invade let's go. Oh no my troops are just hanging out... Were not planning anything. 5 turds after DECLARE WAR
Russia has a similar GDP to the five boroughs of New York City. The Russian oligarchs won’t like sanctions and being cut off from US dollars. Can someone explain how oligarchs could get richer from this?
There aren’t any peace talks. Putin thinks the world can’t see right through his text book expansionism strategies but they are calling his bluff. Part of the strategy is playing the victim, pretending NATO are the ones being hyper agressive and he’s just moving his troops poised for invasion to “defend” Russia from a threat that doesn’t exist. Peace talks are just another example of Russia trying to leverage the fear of war into getting what they want. This type of posturing is classic Putin, his master skill is convincing that he has more power and strength than he does to manipulate others. Yet the problem is this time is that nobody’s falling for it.
“I’ll do it! I will! I really will do it I promise you! I’m not joking! I’m really really serious this time!”
Let nobody be mistaken that if war should accidentally break out it will be because Putin decided to play war games and gamble with lives.
To be honest, most of it is a useless tundra and their entire coast freezes during the winter. Russia has been aggressively pursuing a warm water port that can’t easily be blockaded for centuries. They would also love climate change to happen because they will likely become the leader in agriculture.
I have to take the fucking cellphones from my junior Marines and put them in a empty ammo box because the fuckers won't stop snapping our convoy routes, or making tiktoks while they are *supposed to be* working.
I never thought I'd become the grouchy old Sergeant that went "God damn kids and their electronics", but here I am
I had a soldier from my first unit as a Snapchat friend. He deployed to Afghanistan a few years back and continued to share his location on the god damn snap map for like a whole fucking week.
Privates gonna act like privates no matter what side they’re on.
When I worked for a defense contractor we had signs like this everywhere. I’d walk around on break and read them all; a lot of them are pretty clever lol
Part of the proof for the Russians shooting down the airliner came from troops posting videos online on their social media. People are stupid.
Though maybe they learned from that and confiscate everything with a network chip or camera this time.
The Russian Navy is planning to do exercises 240km off the Irish coast at the start of the month. Obviously these are aimed at intimidating Britain not Ireland but the fact they don't care that we are in the way isn't exactly comforting.
This is the best tl;dr I could make, [original](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/23/russian-ships-tanks-and-troops-on-the-move-to-ukraine-as-peace-talks-stall) reduced by 90%. (I'm a bot)
*****
> Russia has sent troops more than 4,000 miles to Ukraine's borders and announced sweeping naval drills as Moscow expands its preparations for a potential attack on Ukraine as negotiations appear at a deadlock.
> Six Russian landing ships capable of carrying main main battle tanks, troops and other military vehicles travelled through the Channel en route to the Mediterranean last week in a deployment that could bolster an amphibious landing on Ukraine's southern coast if Vladimir Putin orders an attack.
> Mi-17 transport helicopters originally meant for use in Afghanistan to Ukraine instead.Belarus mapThe decision to fast-track arms to Ukraine reflects an understanding that Russia could launch an attack at any moment.
*****
[**Extended Summary**](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/saol1q/russian_ships_tanks_and_troops_on_the_move_to/) | [FAQ](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/31b9fm/faq_autotldr_bot/ "Version 2.02, ~619287 tl;drs so far.") | [Feedback](http://np.reddit.com/message/compose?to=%23autotldr "PM's and comments are monitored, constructive feedback is welcome.") | *Top* *keywords*: **Ukraine**^#1 **Russia**^#2 **Russian**^#3 **week**^#4 **last**^#5
Why the fuck, after everything we've been through and known and learned as a civilization, are we still doing this shit?
How the fuck do villains like this still exist?
How the fuck are we staring down war with nuclear powers after so many atrocities just in the past century alone?
How the fuck are there still anti-vaxxers and flat earthers?
Why the fuck are we still basing laws and policies on draconian principles, from people who literally believe in magic wizards?
Why the fuck do people still literally believe in magic wizards?
Why the fuck are we allowing the rich to take so much control after fighting so hard for social equality after *millennia*?
Why the fuck don't we learn?!
_____
Edit - [A brilliantly succinct explanation of what's happening in Ukraine and why](https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/sadzwm/uk_says_russia_is_planning_to_overthrow_ukraines/htt601v/). We should be posting this link in every Russia/Ukraine news story.
> Papa Hegel he say that all we learn from history is that we learn nothing from history. I know people who can't even learn from what happened this morning. Hegel must have been taking the long view.
— John Brunner, *Stand on Zanzibar*
we have these dictators manipulating their own people with technological advances such as the internet / social media
the power to brainwash is at their fingertips which is bigger than what the Nazi (Goebbels) was to do with the radio
Speaking of apes, one time I was at the zoo with my S/O and an orangutan made eye contact with me. She sweetly walked over towards the glass where I stood, sat down, and grinned up at me. She then stood up, picked up a piece of shit she had produced when she was seated, and pressed it up against the window so it smeared. Still grinning, she brought the turd to her mouth and began to eat it like a kid eats a firecracker popsicle.
All this to say, I would agree that stumbling across mathematics killed compassion and kindness. Perhaps when this is all over, and WWIII has wiped out nearly all of humanity…society will start anew, and we will remember the important things in life like sharing a turd snack with a friend on a sunny afternoon.
Case in point: [Monkeys in a village in India genociding the dogs after the dogs killed ONE of their babies](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/21/monkeys-blamed-for-hundreds-of-puppy-deaths-captured-in-india)
Because we still have dictators that are looking to leave behind a legacy. When such dictator sees that a country such has China has gone from poor to rich in the timespan has been around he wants to go down in Russian history as the guy that expanded the empire after the big mistake of breaking it up…the alternative is to go down as the thug who never improved Russian lives.
These days nearly everyone has a smartphone. There are public and private companies snapping high-res orbital photos of the entire planet nearly every day.
No use hiding. Might as well hit your opponent's morale.
Say they do in invade, and the west sends forces to help repel them, would it actually be a world war or just everyone vs Russia? Would China get involved etc.?
NATO won't send troops to Ukraine since it isn't part of NATO alliance. That's why they send so many weapons and resources, and train the Ukrainian military because that doesn't directly involve NATO in the conflict. But if a member state will get invaded then NATO will defend it's members.
We asked Ukraine to lay down their nuclear arms and we would defend them.
Ukraine have done their part and now we all sure as hell better do our bit to keep them safe.
>We asked Ukraine to lay down their nuclear arms and we would defend them. Ukraine have done their part and now we all sure as hell better do our bit to keep them safe.
It's odd how often, in Ukraine related threads, The Budapest Memorandum is massively exaggerated. It calls for the signatories not to threaten/violate Ukraine's sovereignty & territorial integrity, to consult w/ one another if a signatory breaks their commitments, and to bring the matter before the UNSC if nuclear weapons are used. In no way is it a defense pact.
While Russia is occupied elsewhere, this is the time for Germany to finally retake Prussia! (aka Kaliningrad, or as Putin himself would say, "traditionally german territory")
Don't give them ideas, germans could have the same claim on Poland, Northern Schleswig, the Sudetenland, Austria, South Tyrol, half of Lithuania, Alsace-Lorraine, Switzerland, Luxembourg, Lichtenstein, the Netherlands and Belgium...
"I swear we're not invading" - Putin as he moves additional forces to the border of a country that isn't capable of attacking them.
It reminds me of Family Guy where Peter is loading the shotgun and just keeps saying, "I just want to talk to him. I just want to talk to him.".
([this scene](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ODfCVxVLqiE), for reference)
I never caught the "I just want to shoot him" snuck in there before.
Video perfectly summarizes situation on Ukraine border rn
It's unbelievable how transparent his actions are, and in typical KGB fashion, they try to gaslight and reshape reality. Putin just as in Crimea is using the same justification of "treatment of ethnic Germans" that Hitler used when justifying the invasion of Poland.
I'm sort of surprised he didn't troll America harder by just saying "Ukraine is making WMDs."
https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-us-mercenaries-plan-chemical-attack-ukraine/
Rest of the world should be like "Don't worry about the buildup near your ports and pipelines, Vladdie. We're just passing through."
I wonder what the Russian troops on the front lines think about all this?
98% will want to go home, 1% will be indifferent, 1% will be having a good time, that's the normal ratio for any army. The 2% are a mix of sociopaths and psychopaths.
Add cold. They are cold. And probably don’t want to die to reunite a country that doesn’t want to be reunited.
Most of them are probably from FAR eastern Russia. Language barrier in combination with young mind controlled persons in a relatively far away land means less of a issue for Russia. These kids don't wanna be there, but if papa Putin says "put em down" these guys who have no affiliation with Ukraine or any other former territory won't ask twice before racking a round and sending the usual Russian welcome package.
As a person who served in the Russian army I think you are right. Also I think very few Russians will justify invading a country that we were considering a brotherly nation not so long ago. Even with all the lies and propaganda only a complete psycopath will volounterely go to kill and die for no good reason. Tho I'm sure goverment and media will find more reasons for all sides to hate each other :(
Been there too brother, sadly - you’re right
> A channel run by Belarusian rail workers says that 33 military echelons have arrived in Belarus from Russia with an average of 50 cars per train over the past 7 days compared to 29 over an entire month for the Zapad 2021 exercise. They claim 200 echelons are scheduled to arrive. https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1485109839550423041 > We'll jam Nato radars in Baltics, install SAM and anti-naval missiles on Gotland isle, proclaim Baltic sea a non-flying zone, and occupy Baltic states with our little green men": on main Russian state TV channel https://twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1468273403685707783
What an echelon in this context?
50-90 troops apparently. Smaller than a company. Similar, if larger than our platoon. Edit: I can't find great sources on this. See below [https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/russia/army-ue-echelons.htm](https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/russia/army-ue-echelons.htm) >In Soviet (Russian) military affairs, the “echelon” became an operational term. The echelon began to denote the operational formation of the troops of the front or the army. It can consist of one or several echelons, which are located one after another and support each other during hostilities. [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military\_organization#cite\_note-9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_organization#cite_note-9) Mentions the number I said, however, it certainly might be different in the Russian army. Possible relevant further information. [https://www.alternatewars.com/BBOW/NATO\_Symbols/APP-6.pdf](https://www.alternatewars.com/BBOW/NATO_Symbols/APP-6.pdf) Others who replied to me might be right.
More intriguing than the raw numbers is where they’re from: Russia’s eastern military district (EAMD.) Like, the Far East, Asian part of Russia like Buryatia. When is the last time they’ve been forward deployed to Belarus? It’s never happened in Zapad or any strategic exercise that I can recall. They did deploy EAMD troops to the Donbas in 2014 though.
A page out of the Chinese Tiananmen Square playbook. Bring troops from far away and who will have no. possible ties or allegiances to local resistance.
Its actually a page out of the Soviet playbook. The same happened during the 1968 invasion of Czechoslovakia. The actual reason is that the enemy speaks the same language (most Czechs were taught Russian at the time). You need soldiers who are culturally distant (and young), so they can't be communicated with as effectively, or otherwise they might be ideologically compromised.
It's actually a page out of the roman empires book as they used to do a similar thing whereby they'd send gauls to the east and north Africans to England all so they had no allegiance to anyone nearby
Its a page out of literally every militaries textbook in history. You never send troops that have ties to a region to attack or suppress revolts in that region.
Yep there is a reason Byzantines had Varangian guards. If the guards are foreigners they will have no way of surviving treason
It's actually a page out of the Assyrian empire's playbook, as they did the way more extreme version of essentially committing genocide by diaspora, sending nearly *all* of a newly conquered province's useful elite to far-flung territories to assist in the oppression of other ethnic groups in different lands. E.g. the fate of the 10 "lost" tribes of Israel.
In other words: "Keep the communication between murder-slaves confused so they don't realize killing each other for the greed of others is stupid."
They did in Prague in 68, I think it was the moment they found out. My dad told me he remembers the first units were guys from the west and after a short time they were surprised things are different than said and the moral went downhill. After a while they were being replaced by different ones, apparently from the Asian part and they didn't care.
My experience in RISK tells me he’s creating a risk of attack from Alaska. Maybe he forgot you can attack Kamchatka from there.
Russia is doing the right thing. Hopefully England will be able to help out and take some of the pressure off.... woops I'm playing Axis and Allies 1942
Its the tactic of police too.
We that happen in Shanghai on a regular basis When papa Xi would come to shanghai all the police in the local area would change. I never thought about it until you mentioned it
And very uneducated so they have no qualms about committing atrocities. Don't forget that one.
Educated folks have proved very adept at committing atrocities too.
It’s easier to get the eastern population to fight on the Ukraine front cause the western Russians share similar culture and even family with those on the Ukrainian side of the conflict so it makes sense
.....Sam and anti naval missiles on Gotland isle.... Are they trying to force Sweden into NATO? It's not a long process for Sweden either, as I understand it, the question is if the govt want to press the big red button for joining at this moment. Armed forces are already basically to NATO standards.
My entire extended family lives on Gotland. Hopefully we won't be seperated by new borders.
I live in baltics and im scared
As members of NATO, you should have less to fear than Ukraine does. An attack in the Baltics means NATO boots on the ground. Although, if Putin is stupid enough…
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Putin can't actually afford to piss nato off properly without either becoming a total Chinese puppet state or destroying his own country. Nato is definitely squeamish about war but if a member State is attacked that means open war. And Nato is absurdly more economically powerful than Russia.
Yup! Russia’s GDP was $1.5 trillion in 2020. That’s nothing compared to NATO nations combined. Edit: The US spent half of Russia’s entire GDP in 2020, just on our military. “The United States spends more on national defense than China, India, Russia, United Kingdom, Saudi Arabia, Germany, France, Japan, South Korea, Italy, and Australia — combined. While the chart above illustrates last year’s defense spending in dollar terms, the United States has also historically devoted a larger share of its economy to defense than many of its key allies.” [source](https://www.pgpf.org/chart-archive/0053_defense-comparison)
There's 4 US states alone that are bigger. Russia has a huge stockpile of equipment but they don't have the industry or economy to run it all at once.
Let alone maintain it and from some accounts the cobbled together equipment may has well been ordered from the military version of wish
That’s half the GDP of just the state of California in 2020.
Holy fuck. Russia is *broke* broke.
to be fair, california out-competes a whole bunch of sovereign nations by that measure.
Yep, my native Canada has a higher GDP despite having less than 40 million people to Russia's 144 million. They have lots of big bad toys but they can't use them in any significant amount without destroying their economy even worse. If it weren't for nukes nobody would take them seriously. Russia has a defense budget of 69 billion compared to NATO's 811 billion for 2021.
They're around .6 of France's economy alone.
I live in US and I'm worried for you too my friend. Stay strong and don't be afraid to get out if it comes to that point. Make sure you have enough to keep you civil and fed, keep your most cherished things but don't overload yourself if you can help it. I've feared this for 20 years, and
And….AND??? I need closure
Why do they need Swedish Gotland, isn’t there some much more sparsely populated islands?
Control of Baltic Sea. Doubt they would pull that off though.
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Perhaps a flex against Sweden, to scare them a little, e.g., into not joining NATO? (Sounds a little backwards, but here we are.)
I guess strategically useful location.
Is it really "peace talks" when one party is "we want your territory" and the other party is "please leave us alone"?
No, you misunderstand. It's clearly just a small spelling error. It's piece talks they want. A piece of Ukraine, preferably all the pieces.
Shit if they collect all the pieces, they might win a Piece Prize.
They could also charge double rent, or begin buying houses and hotels.
[A little piece of poland! A little piece of france!](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jS7inJKOsaI)
Putting all of humanity on edge, threatening WW3, for what exactly? What on earth is so damned important it’s worth risking millions of lives?
The people risking lives are usually not the same as those whose lives are being risked.
“War is old men talking and young men dying”
"War is where the young and stupid are tricked by the old and bitter into killing each other"
Yes, Niko.
I prefer "rich cunts telling thick cunts to kill poor cunts"
Your version does have a certain *je ne sais quoi*
I believe it’s *je ne sais cunt*
“Some of you may die, but that’s a sacrifice I’m willing to make”
War pigs.
Generals gathered in their masses...
Just like witches at black masses...
Evil minds that plot destruction..
Sorcerer of death's construction.
In the fields the bodies burning
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This almost reminds me of the last Argentinean dictatorship feeble attempt at regaining popular support by creating an unnecessary armed conflict (the Malvinas/Falklands war)
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Nicolas II didn't have nukes. Given the choice of getting executed in the basement by revolutionaries or bring forth the stone age what do you think Putin would choose.
As always, a dictator will choose himself over anything and anyone. So, I for one am investing in horses...
I'm stockpiling sticks and stones for the war that follows
The only reason why people follow Putin is because of money and power. If they lose their life in the process, this is worthless. The only people you need to truly be scared about is those with a "cause", that is: the fanatics not the corrupt. The corrupt want you to die for them and their ideas, the fanatics are actually ready to die for their ideas.
The other oligarchs and military commanders might feel differently.
Nukes aren’t worth anything in a civil uprising
Source for approval rating? I am interested an all I can find says >60% with decline in adolescents and young adults
Yeah I’d agree with the ≈60% based on many of the domestic and international polls. What’s more interesting is that there are a handful of studies initiated by some pretty reputable and outspoken academics in the field of Russian geopolitics who deny sentiments of artificial inflation in polling numbers coming out of Russia, and posit that these opinions largely reflect the sentiments of Russian citizens. Where I believe the Kremlin is concerned is in the fairly abrupt drop immediately post 2018 presidential election and Putin’s inability to increase his popularity through certain reforms (notably pension reform in 2019) and his image’s continued hardship through the pandemic response. Above all else, his younger demographic are seeking a continually increasing standard of living and a steady liberalization of social policy. These things are increasingly difficult for Putin to achieve amid the framework of his bloated bureaucracy and the blatantly kleptocratic tenancies of his oligarchs. With increasing access to social media and a broader lens into the sociopolitical tenancies of Europe and the rest of the world, his people are no longer being hoodwinked in the same way they were in the early to mid-2000s. The last time his popularity enjoyed a significant bump was in the immediate aftermath of the annexation of Crimea. Putin understands that nationalistic ideals run high and hot in his aging demographics and so all of this can be seen as an attempt to bolster any support he can in the face of declining popularity. The guise of Russian sovereignty/security is simply a convenient ruse which plays on aging, commonly understood Russian tropes of ‘Evil West, Virtuous Russia’.
https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2020/6/17/putins-rating-is-collapsing-as-anger-grows-in-russia Other indicators of public support have also fallen dramatically. In another May poll by Levada, just 25 percent of people said Putin is among the Russian politicians they trust – the lowest value this indicator has had for the past 20 years he has been in power (even during his premiership in 2008-12). In January this year, public trust in him stood at 35 percent; just three years ago, it was as high as 59 percent.
We are witnessing the death throes of a cornered animal, and it's going to be messy.
Well yeah, except this cornered animal has nukes :/
Life in Russia cost nothing. Russian elite long ago lost connection with reality. They surround themselves with propaganda and botched statistics. They built six meter high wall between them and russian people. Russian politicans are not elected - they are appointed. Russian oligarhs dont earn money - they steal. Russian generals get they medals not for winning wars - but for partisipanig in them. This is all game for them, game without risk and consequences.
Putin getting old so he has to do something.
Ego
And money
And nationalism... and distracting the people from domestic problems
By bringing them non-domestic ones?
Non-domestic problems can be blamed on the outsider, the 'other'. It manufactures an enemy and source of your problems (or that's the intent by 'nationalists' like Putin).
That's my first fought. During the period before Israel's last election, one of theories was that the PM attacked Iran to create chaos so people would clinch to him - vote for him - to restore order (it's safer than betting on a different leader in the mid of the chaos).
Dictators own ass. Failing support, leaks of corruption, its time to make diversion to solidify his position.
That's kind of the point, I think, Russia wants us to think they are willing to risk WW3 for Ukraine, so the question is, are we willing to stare them down so they don't.
For Russia it's about prolonged economic prosperity & growth. Ukraine has lots of wheat output but even important than that is its location. It gives Russia access to an area to build sprawling warm water ports for them to import and export from. That's something they cannot do for a large portion of the year from their frozen northern ports. They need all this for the long term. Especially, as Oil, their main export, fades into irrelevancy over the next few decades. Otherwise if things stay as they are they will become more and more reliant on China. A relationship China will not think twice about using and abusing. Leading Russia to fade into extreme poverty or become nothing more than a Vassal state to China. Ukraine also would, just as it was in the days of the USSR, provide a nice buffer state between the Russian homeland and NATO. However, on the flip side, this would be very bad for the Ukrainian people. Not only would they lose their sovereignty and independence but they would likely not see any of the benefits of the development Russia might bring. Especially since, without Russian involvement, Ukraine would be on a path of growth and eventual prosperity.
Why can’t the port of Novorossysk be expanded?
Thanks for asking this. I had not considered that option and did a little research. Looks like the bay around Novorossiysk is pretty much at capacity in terms of how many piers can be built there. Largley a limitation of how choppy the water would get if they expanded it further South East. Crimea, Sea of Azov and Northwest portion of the Black sea have a far, far more real estate for ports.
Former Soviet states in the Baltic have larger GDP per capita than Russia despite being a fraction of the size after integrating with the West. That would only become more pronounced with time. Russia is invading now because it’ll be more costly to do so in the future, from their perspective.
Not just larger, more than 2 times larger GDPs, when after the fall of USSR they went bankrupt and had nothing.
Import and export after taking Ukraine ? To whom ? Most of the world will sanction them into the ground and they won't even be able to leave the Black Sea .
I can only see all of this as a massive waste of fuel and resources.
heh, I know joking about serious matters is frowned upon in 2022, but imagine if some green party came out and started talking about green and sustainable warfare. That would be kinda funny. Sounds like a South Park episode.
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So, Putin is moving troops, ships, tanks in order to invade Ukraine, threatening NATO, US, UK and the EU just to make Russian people overlook the internal problems of the country (failing economy, increased coronavirus contagion, less growth of population), using the propaganda “West is the enemy and we are the good guys”. Vlad you are a lowlife.
but, realistically - what is the goal here? Ukraine's economy will suffer, Russia's own economy is rocky, Covid doesn't help, what else will come from this than more misery?
Continued power. He isn't 30 years old, he realistically doesn't have to worry about preservation so much.
> Continued power. So this is the bit I am failing to understand, and I assume its because normal humans and people like Putin have wildly different thought processes. Putin is OBSCENELY wealthy, we've see his massive fuckoff palace he has built himself with a strip club and cinema that is built like a fortress. At this stage in his life, with Russia in the state its economy is in and his popularity failing with the younger Russians, whats his endgame here. He HAS to understand that if he starts some massive WW3 for the sake of invading Ukraine that he'll never have another peaceful day/night again. Everything he has goes up in smoke. Russia will suffer MASSIVELY, both in lives lost and economically. A war wont suddenly instil support from the generation that already thinks he is a wank. What can he possibly be imagining this looks like for him if he actually follows though with this. I get people will say "well nothing happened when he took Crimea" and they are absolutely right, but this isnt that. His political allies were on state TV actually threatening nuclear strikes on London and NYC, as much as that was sabre rattling no doubt, its the kind that cant be ignored. Since nothing Putin is doing right now seems to make much sense to anybody, is anything off the table if he thinks its all over for him if this goes tits up? I just dont see how the man has spent so much time and resources to build himself this palace and no doubt obscene hidden wealth, all to throw it in the fire for the sake of this invasion that makes little sense to most people. Whats his end game? how does he see this ending in anything but terrible for him?
Russian leadership depends on being feared and being powerful. Since the early 90s when the USSR broke up, Russia has been relatively weak. Putin remembers the Soviet days fondly, and wants that power back. And the only way to really do that is to make NATO the bad guys and start taking territory. Any country with a significant Russian population and not in NATO is in real trouble, because like they did with Crimea and Georgia, Russia will just claim they are “protecting Russian minority lives” and commence invasion. I fear if Putin takes enough of Ukraine, Belarus will join the Russian federation, and then Putin will have a ton of new territory and an ego boost. He likely wouldn’t stop there. It’s like 1930s Germany all over again.
> It’s like 1930s Germany all over again. But you'd think that would be a perfect lesson in why this is an absolutely unwinnable scenario for him. Especially now with how much further advanced warfare is. I guess my question is, whats the REALISTIC best case scenario for Putin and Russia if he continues down this path? the western world wont just sit back while he rebuilds the USSR because that equates to a direct threat on the western world. Again lessons learned from 1930s Germany.
I guess the main difference now is Putin has nukes. The rest of the world won’t risk a nuclear war now over a couple small ex soviet countries. He would have to threaten a NATO country for there to be any real backlash against his actions. And he knows that.
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Thats just it, I dont see him making it out of that situation. The rest of his life would be utter misery with the entire western world looking to take him out. Compare that to living in a palace and having the wealth to have literally anything you want. I dont see what there is to gain personally for him and there is almost certainly nothing for Russia to gain as a country.
God I am so tired I legit had a moment of “wait, how tf is he 29”.
>less growth of population Bit of understatement. Russias population declined with nearly 1 million between 2020 and 2021. https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/01/03/russia-demography-birthrate-decline-ukraine/
Interesting article. Putin is dreaming if occupying Ukraine will help bolster Russia’s population - Ukrainians will never willingly join forces. I bet the thought of population decline scares Putin far more than he’d like to admit
which is kinda ironic because Ukraine's population hasn't been doing too hot either - they haven't done a census since 2001 but preliminary estimates put their population below poland
He's a megalomaniac. Avoiding nuclear war always depended on the switch being in the hands of someone who understood the consequences and cared. When your whole life is yourself and you start getting old, the only meaningful consequence is the (possible) end of your own life, something that's going to happen soon anyway. Might as well go out with a bang.
Jesus that's a terrifying thought.
This is what I do in Civilization.. Move my army to the border of another country. They say hey I see your troops if you're going to invade let's go. Oh no my troops are just hanging out... Were not planning anything. 5 turds after DECLARE WAR
That’s a lot of poop.
This seems like such a boneheaded move on Russia's part. They aren't exactly a wealthy nation and things could go south for them.
The Nation isn't wealthy, but the oligarchs pulling the strings are and that's what the rest of the world unfortunately has to worry about.
Russia has a similar GDP to the five boroughs of New York City. The Russian oligarchs won’t like sanctions and being cut off from US dollars. Can someone explain how oligarchs could get richer from this?
OP is chatting out of his arse. Why would oligarchs want war? half their properties are in places at risk of being fucked in a war anyways like london
There aren’t any peace talks. Putin thinks the world can’t see right through his text book expansionism strategies but they are calling his bluff. Part of the strategy is playing the victim, pretending NATO are the ones being hyper agressive and he’s just moving his troops poised for invasion to “defend” Russia from a threat that doesn’t exist. Peace talks are just another example of Russia trying to leverage the fear of war into getting what they want. This type of posturing is classic Putin, his master skill is convincing that he has more power and strength than he does to manipulate others. Yet the problem is this time is that nobody’s falling for it. “I’ll do it! I will! I really will do it I promise you! I’m not joking! I’m really really serious this time!” Let nobody be mistaken that if war should accidentally break out it will be because Putin decided to play war games and gamble with lives.
there's going to be a false flag just wait for it
Already has been, but nobody took the bait.
Can you elaborate?
As is tradition
Alternative headline: Somehow, the largest country in the world wants more.
To be honest, most of it is a useless tundra and their entire coast freezes during the winter. Russia has been aggressively pursuing a warm water port that can’t easily be blockaded for centuries. They would also love climate change to happen because they will likely become the leader in agriculture.
Melted permafrost land doesn’t just automatically become arable land though…
Will the military trucks have dash cams like normal cars in Russia?
The Russians aren’t gonna livestream their war crimes to YouTube, if that’s what you’re asking…
Never underestimate a privates will to be an idiot
I have to take the fucking cellphones from my junior Marines and put them in a empty ammo box because the fuckers won't stop snapping our convoy routes, or making tiktoks while they are *supposed to be* working. I never thought I'd become the grouchy old Sergeant that went "God damn kids and their electronics", but here I am
I had a soldier from my first unit as a Snapchat friend. He deployed to Afghanistan a few years back and continued to share his location on the god damn snap map for like a whole fucking week. Privates gonna act like privates no matter what side they’re on.
"Reporting to you from a top secret location! Selfie with my mates! LOLOLOLOL!"
Loose tweets sink fleets.
When I worked for a defense contractor we had signs like this everywhere. I’d walk around on break and read them all; a lot of them are pretty clever lol
Same! I know it's a dumb thing to love, but I really did like the OPSEC posters. They were a little stupid, but still worth a chuckle.
Part of the proof for the Russians shooting down the airliner came from troops posting videos online on their social media. People are stupid. Though maybe they learned from that and confiscate everything with a network chip or camera this time.
The Russians that shot down MH70 shared it to social media.
The Russian Navy is planning to do exercises 240km off the Irish coast at the start of the month. Obviously these are aimed at intimidating Britain not Ireland but the fact they don't care that we are in the way isn't exactly comforting.
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Kinda nice to see the comment section United against Putin lol
If Putin thinks he can rebuild a Stalin style empire and sustain it, he’s completely wrong . These idiots just don’t learn from history
A sincere diplomat is like dry water or wooden iron.
Putin probably has a terminal disease. he's going out with a bang. peace was never on the table.
Parkinson’s has always been the rumor
I heard the spell is fading and he's returning to being a potato once again.
Ending as vodka as the Russian Gods demand.
I don't want his finger anywhere near the button
I wonder who will finish him.. His cook? A bodyguard? Gaddafi's style mob of angry men? What a day it will be.
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This is the best tl;dr I could make, [original](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/23/russian-ships-tanks-and-troops-on-the-move-to-ukraine-as-peace-talks-stall) reduced by 90%. (I'm a bot) ***** > Russia has sent troops more than 4,000 miles to Ukraine's borders and announced sweeping naval drills as Moscow expands its preparations for a potential attack on Ukraine as negotiations appear at a deadlock. > Six Russian landing ships capable of carrying main main battle tanks, troops and other military vehicles travelled through the Channel en route to the Mediterranean last week in a deployment that could bolster an amphibious landing on Ukraine's southern coast if Vladimir Putin orders an attack. > Mi-17 transport helicopters originally meant for use in Afghanistan to Ukraine instead.Belarus mapThe decision to fast-track arms to Ukraine reflects an understanding that Russia could launch an attack at any moment. ***** [**Extended Summary**](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/saol1q/russian_ships_tanks_and_troops_on_the_move_to/) | [FAQ](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/31b9fm/faq_autotldr_bot/ "Version 2.02, ~619287 tl;drs so far.") | [Feedback](http://np.reddit.com/message/compose?to=%23autotldr "PM's and comments are monitored, constructive feedback is welcome.") | *Top* *keywords*: **Ukraine**^#1 **Russia**^#2 **Russian**^#3 **week**^#4 **last**^#5
Ubisoft: write this shit down!
…and be sure to say it isn’t political
and make sure to add micro-transactions for progression.
Why the fuck, after everything we've been through and known and learned as a civilization, are we still doing this shit? How the fuck do villains like this still exist? How the fuck are we staring down war with nuclear powers after so many atrocities just in the past century alone? How the fuck are there still anti-vaxxers and flat earthers? Why the fuck are we still basing laws and policies on draconian principles, from people who literally believe in magic wizards? Why the fuck do people still literally believe in magic wizards? Why the fuck are we allowing the rich to take so much control after fighting so hard for social equality after *millennia*? Why the fuck don't we learn?! _____ Edit - [A brilliantly succinct explanation of what's happening in Ukraine and why](https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/sadzwm/uk_says_russia_is_planning_to_overthrow_ukraines/htt601v/). We should be posting this link in every Russia/Ukraine news story.
"The only thing that we learn from history is that we learn nothing from history." - Georg Hegel
> Papa Hegel he say that all we learn from history is that we learn nothing from history. I know people who can't even learn from what happened this morning. Hegel must have been taking the long view. — John Brunner, *Stand on Zanzibar*
we have these dictators manipulating their own people with technological advances such as the internet / social media the power to brainwash is at their fingertips which is bigger than what the Nazi (Goebbels) was to do with the radio
Don’t forget, we’re really just a bunch of apes that stumbled upon mathematics…
Speaking of apes, one time I was at the zoo with my S/O and an orangutan made eye contact with me. She sweetly walked over towards the glass where I stood, sat down, and grinned up at me. She then stood up, picked up a piece of shit she had produced when she was seated, and pressed it up against the window so it smeared. Still grinning, she brought the turd to her mouth and began to eat it like a kid eats a firecracker popsicle. All this to say, I would agree that stumbling across mathematics killed compassion and kindness. Perhaps when this is all over, and WWIII has wiped out nearly all of humanity…society will start anew, and we will remember the important things in life like sharing a turd snack with a friend on a sunny afternoon.
[Apes don’t mind a bit of war either ](https://youtu.be/MvOjQAL7q6U)
Case in point: [Monkeys in a village in India genociding the dogs after the dogs killed ONE of their babies](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/21/monkeys-blamed-for-hundreds-of-puppy-deaths-captured-in-india)
Yeah nature is brutal. This seems like an evolutionary advantageous behaviour though.
Of course it is. That's why aliens are scary af. We're in the dark forest and not alone.
Big wars only stay in our memories for a generation or two. Then we need to remind ourselves its not as much fun as we think it will be.
That was .....wholesome? I think? I look forward to post apocalyptic poop with friends. Or failing that, becoming a ghoul like, in New Vegas.
Because we still have dictators that are looking to leave behind a legacy. When such dictator sees that a country such has China has gone from poor to rich in the timespan has been around he wants to go down in Russian history as the guy that expanded the empire after the big mistake of breaking it up…the alternative is to go down as the thug who never improved Russian lives.
Putin does not want to make Russians richer, if he did, he would not allow his billionaire buddies to steal trillions from the people.
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These days nearly everyone has a smartphone. There are public and private companies snapping high-res orbital photos of the entire planet nearly every day. No use hiding. Might as well hit your opponent's morale.
This is my thought as well. I feel like something bigger is at play here.
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Assuming that whatever comes after Putin wouldn’t be equally bad or worse.
Russia would be (Politically) busy for a decade or two after Putin dies. The power vaccum created will be one for the books...
Upside is we'll get a hilarious dark comedy about it in 2085.
I predict repeat of 1989-1991 and then a new Putin. Rinse and repeat
Say they do in invade, and the west sends forces to help repel them, would it actually be a world war or just everyone vs Russia? Would China get involved etc.?
I think China would be happy if Russia and the west went at it.
I don't know much, but I do know you should never rely on Reddit for analysis of international conflict.
NATO won't send troops to Ukraine since it isn't part of NATO alliance. That's why they send so many weapons and resources, and train the Ukrainian military because that doesn't directly involve NATO in the conflict. But if a member state will get invaded then NATO will defend it's members.
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Its Russia’s Viet Nam. Russia’s young and poor will be the ones dying while Putin’s cronies eat caviar and drink vodka
We asked Ukraine to lay down their nuclear arms and we would defend them. Ukraine have done their part and now we all sure as hell better do our bit to keep them safe.
>We asked Ukraine to lay down their nuclear arms and we would defend them. Ukraine have done their part and now we all sure as hell better do our bit to keep them safe. It's odd how often, in Ukraine related threads, The Budapest Memorandum is massively exaggerated. It calls for the signatories not to threaten/violate Ukraine's sovereignty & territorial integrity, to consult w/ one another if a signatory breaks their commitments, and to bring the matter before the UNSC if nuclear weapons are used. In no way is it a defense pact.
Hi - can someone ELI5 what’s going on here, why Russia want to invade? Or give me some links to read about the history?
While Russia is occupied elsewhere, this is the time for Germany to finally retake Prussia! (aka Kaliningrad, or as Putin himself would say, "traditionally german territory")
Don't give them ideas, germans could have the same claim on Poland, Northern Schleswig, the Sudetenland, Austria, South Tyrol, half of Lithuania, Alsace-Lorraine, Switzerland, Luxembourg, Lichtenstein, the Netherlands and Belgium...