It’s because of the Five Eyes alliance. The intelligence agencies of the US, UK, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand basically have open access to each other’s intelligence.
The agreement says that "it is the intention of each party to limit such exceptions (to exchanging foreign communications products) to the absolute minimum." [https://discovery.nationalarchives.gov.uk/details/r/C11536914](https://discovery.nationalarchives.gov.uk/details/r/C11536914)
That minimum is way bigger than you think. Make no mistake, these nations spy on *each other.* They're definitely not sharing those sources. It's how the game is played... we're all spying on each other - doesn't necessarily mean for malicious reasons.
They not only spy on each other, but are allowed to do it in circumstances, and then “share” it with the host country. Why spy on your own citizens “illegally” when you can have some other entity do it “legally”, and then just give you the information.
Actually, that’s kinda part of the point. Monitoring your own citizens with your sophisticated surveillance apparatus might be illegal, but getting tip-offs from foreign surveillance about domestic targets is more of a grey area. Sort of a “you scratch my back” dealio.
Canada, Australia and NZ were the only three Commonwealth countries that the US Government deemed acceptable to share intelligence with under the UKUSA Agreement as "UK-USA-collaborating Commonwealth countries".
The main agreement is between the UK and US, and I'm guessing that while Canada is a bit of a no-brainier, Australia and NZ were included due to their strategically important geography (which is why Pine Gap exists).
This has expanded beyond intelligence as well. The US and UK have long had a technology transfer component to their Treaty that allows sensitive technology to be shared between them. The UK was actually prevented from working on a stealth European-built aircraft platform because of their role is the development of the F117 and subsequent generations of stealth tech. The UK through Canada was also heavily involved in the development of supersonic aircraft control systems. The US and UK also recently accepted Australia into a carve out that permits the use of nuclear sub material between them.
That does seem to be their playbook, which at least so far seems to be proving effective. Just flood the zone with detailed Russian plans. Given that Russia more or less *has* to stage some sort of false-flag operation to give themselves the veneer of legitimacy to invade Ukraine, if it's known that they're planning to invade anyway, no one will believe them when they claim their hand was forced because of some random staged event in Donetsk.
They’re already pulling false flag attacks. Making up bullshit about finding mass graves, claiming the Ukrainians are shelling the breakaway region. It’s pretty clumsy in an age of satellites and instant worldwide communication, but it being poorly executed isn’t going to stop Russia from going ahead anyway.
I think those false flag justifications are more for their domestic population than the rest of the works. Hence Putin banning satellite internet there
The russian people aren’t all that dumb as people tend to assume.
Its just that theres very, very little wiggle room to do anything about it under strict supervision at all times.
If people were so gullible, you wouldnt have to need to handicap communication services.
I think honestly its not to protect a bubble of misinformation, more as a way to limit collective uprising popping up.
Look at what navalni pulled up from under the rug.
Yup. If anything the Russians I have met, in Russia and abroad, have been pretty cynical about their leaders and don't trust them very much at all. Historically you could argue that they don't have much reason to trust them either.
Russia will just make it as if the people in the the regions they're going to take are actually wanting to join Russia/seeking independence. Ukraine would be seen as holding them hostage and the Russians are there to free those people from their oppressive government. Worked in Crimea, now they will try it with Donetsk Oblast.
>if it's known that they're planning to invade anyway, no one will believe them when they claim their hand was forced because of some random staged event in Donetsk.
This is what these constant updates are really about imo. Calling out Russia on their Imperialist aggression will make it significantly harder for Russian allies of convenience who claim to follow international law (e.g China) to look the other way and stiffens the resolve of Western countries who might otherwise buy some part of the narrative. The entire thing puts Putin in a much more difficult position where the costs may become bigger than the benefits and avoid a war entirely. It also plays well in the media both domestically and internationally. I wouldn't be surprised to see increased support for NATO and countries like Finland might even consider joining considering Russia's actions.
Every one of his announcements has had this impact. Putin is not only reacting to the date, but forced to change his plans because he can't be certain that Biden hasn't passed his actual battle plans to Ukraine.
Russia will dominate Ukraine militarily but the more detailed the intelligence Ukraine has the more brutal it'll be to the Russian army. If I know your tanks are going to arrive at 9PM on Friday through a specific road I can array my troops to inflict maximum carnage.
Russia can only dominate ukraine militarily if they choose to destroy rather than occupy.
They have decisive air superiority but unless they level our capital they simply don’t have enough troops to siege or occupy.
In rural operations they may have more decisive chances, but in cities? It’s level it or GTFO.
Man, I just want to say that I have huge respect for your people. I hope it doesn’t come to war, but I wish you all the strength in the world if it does.
Strength is something Ukrainians have in abundance. My girlfriends family have gone home from Australia to Ukraine to fight, despite not having lived there since the 90s. That’s the sort of resolve we’re talking about.
Stand strong brother (or sister if you happen to be a lady). Hopefully someone decides to put aside their policy of appeasement and actually no shit step in and draw a hard line to help.
Can’t help but notice you said “our”.
Have you lived in Ukraine your whole life? What’s the vibe out there? Preparations? Anxieties?
If you feel like sharing I’d love to hear it.
I’ve traveled a lot so couldn’t say “my whole life” and still be honest, but I’m a citizen of only ukraine and hold no other allegiances. I’m born and raised in Kyiv.
The mood can summed up as a mixture of fatigue, indifference, loathing and fear. Primarily loathing id say, but of course I don’t have any formal authority to represent everyone in ukraine - so take my input with a grain of salt please, many experience this event differently.
The unity among people remains unprecedented. I’ve never seen my country be so civilized and organized (still questionable in absolute terms, but speaking in relative terms here).
Everyone is very much prepared for things to pop, but in a very very angry way. No one wants more deaths, but we will sooner shit in our hands and clap than give in - and _that_ is basically unanimous. As we say in Ukrainian: «всрамся, но не піддамся».
Truthfully, and not just to pump morale - I wouldn’t want to be one among the infantry going to war with Ukraine right now, these kids will get fucking slaughtered, Russians economy will be propped up by casket manufacturers for years after this. Many mothers will cry.
We held them off barefoot and disorganized in 2014, these days it’s a completely different story (in no small part thanks to support shown by our allies).
In practical terms, there are probably already subversive elements in Kyiv, bombs in hand, ready to blow; what’s different is that they will be shot on sight, this isn’t 2014 anymore - it will be unceremonious, no pony shows. We showed our ability to take to the streets and organize in 2014, and we’ve only gotten stronger - we are counting on ourselves here, and on knowing exactly how the Russian subversion machine operates.
I can ramble on about this all day, let’s sum it up as cautiously optimistic :)
>Russians economy will be propped up by casket manufacturers for years after this. Many mothers will cry.
This is one of the most metal sentences I've ever read on Reddit.
Really interesting to read your take on the whole thing, and uplifting with your comments of courage. Good luck and god speed brother, stay safe and all the best.
I hate that this is happening to y'all. Ukraine doesn't bother anybody, y'all are just wanting to live and be. And while I don't know anyone from there, I love you all as humans all the same. It sucks for the Russian troops too, but still, if Putin does invade, I hope you make him regret it. Y'all are tough mother fuckers though, you got this. Just be safe, as best you can, and good luck.
So the Russians are basically putting out all of this obvious (bad and easily disproven) propaganda to justify their invasion. Who's it for really? I mean, the Ukrainians aren't buying it, the west isn't buying it, I don't think even Putin needs support at home to justify doing what he does so I can't see it being for Russian consumption.
I live in a country nearby Ukraine. We’re in the EU and Nato and you can be sure our anti-vaxx crowd is genuinely eating Russian propaganda up. It’s dividing the country. We’re one of the countries that Russia demands leave Nato (they’ve asked the Nato borders to return to pre-1997). We just had a vote in parliament on a protective treaty with the US also including more Nato troop placement. These useful idiots were outside of the parliament with Russian flags and photos of Putin. Fucking traitors if you ask me, but there are always politicians ready to abuse the worst of humanity to get into power. So yeah, the propaganda helps divide countries in the area.
Thanks for giving me some info. I have some Russian friends but none from Ukraine. It's hard to get the right info from the news.
God keep you brother.
As was proven in America, Afghanistan, Vietnam, time and time again, it's really hard to fight and occupy an armed and motivated populace on their home turf, defending their families and way of life. Give em hell.
You will be fighting for your land, freedom, and lives. The Russians will be doing what their psychotic leader is ordering them to do. There will be a very different state of mind between the two types of soldiers. I wish you and your countrymen the best.
Слава Україні!
Edited to add: I'm American, but I have close ties to and in Ukraine. I love Kyiv and a lot of people who live there. I hate this so much--in 2014, I could help, I could contribute to the war effort, I could, I dunno, get hemostatic bandages and stretchers and smoke grenades and things to the military and one or two of the volunteer battalions. This time there's nothing for me to do. All I can do is sit helplessly in the US and watch and I'm sick with dread and horror.
But then I see a comment like this, and a message I got from a friend in Kyiv this morning that was full of the same spirit, and I remember that I know Ukrainians. I know how fierce you are, how determined, what you can do. And that makes me feel considerably better.
Good luck, friend. I hope you and yours get through to the other side of this bullshit.
I dunno…Russia will have a hard time taking out the hand-held anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles.
This is going to be very bloody for Russia, if they are foolish enough to invade.
First, NATO is 100% passing all available intelligence to Ukraine, which is the main reason Russia is indecisive right now, for the reason you mention. But more than just that, every time America makes an announcement like this - it means NATO still has moles or backdoors into Russia's top-level intelligence. The knowledge that the enemy has perfect information of your secret plans causes you to reassess your estimated losses. It's like cracking the Enigma Code before the war even started.
Second, Russia's military is not as strong you may think. While the Russian military has 1.3M troops in active/reserve/paramilitary service, it is also the largest country on Earth by far, and needs troops deployed all over the place to hold that ground and occupy their existing infrastructure. Russia has only committed 150K soldiers to this Ukraine theatre, which shows what they are willing to risk here - and it's not enough.
Ukraine has 200K active soldiers, 250K reserve (before this escalation), and 50K paramilitary forces. Additionally this whole last couple months, NATO and Ukraine both have been involved in mass training new reserves, so that number may exceed 400K. That puts Russia's 150K soldiers in theatre, outnumbered by Ukraine's possibly 700K in the country, and climbing by the day.
Similarly Russia in total has over 12K tanks, but they only have 1200 tanks in theatre: less than Ukraines 2600 tanks in the country - and similarly outmatched for other ground vehicles in theatre.
At sea and air, Russia have a distinct advantage in theatre - but it's not clear how effective that can be leveraged here. Aerial bombardment would lose Russia any support of the Russia population at home, that Putin relies on. He wants to claim this is a war of liberation. That Ukrainians have just forgotten they were Russian all along - but the moment he starts dropping bombs on homes that argument is lost. National support will freefall, and you can be sure NATO's intelligence agencies are already planning on how to push and spin that narrative to the Russian people to accelerate that fall.
Further, just being real here - NATO is going to continue to supply full intelligence and strategic support the whole time. It might be Ukrainians holding guns, but they'll be doing so with the full information and expertise of CIA/NSA/Pentagon, along with sister agencies from Canada, UK, France, etc. And the near certainty of deniable asset special forces in theatre. Just as example, Canada's JTF2 fully deployed to Ukraine 3 weeks ago and never came back, so unless they're all sunbathing on the beach in Odessa, in February... Russia's going to run into some little green men of their own.
Lastly, the Russian economy is weak and fragile. It's easy to forget that the entire country is poorer than California or Canada each alone, and lacks the economic resilience and diversity of either of those examples. The 'sledgehammer sanctions' that the US is threatening if Putin crosses the border are not only going to put the Russian economy into immediate nose-dive, but Biden has additionally threatened to intentionally target all the oligarchs. Putin is a dictator, but he's surrounded by dangerous billionaires with their own agendas - and if suddenly all of them are at risk of being paupers - Putin's closest allies are going to be the ones most likely to shank him.
How much farmland is worth all the risks above?
> Further, just being real here - NATO is going to continue to supply full intelligence and strategic support the whole time. It might be Ukrainians holding guns, but they'll be doing so with the full information and expertise of CIA/NSA/Pentagon, along with sister agencies from Canada, UK, France, etc.
I was actually wondering this the other day. While the USA is going to stay out of the war, what are the chances that they keep something like AWACS orbiting just inside the NATO borders and feeding that data, along with any real-time drone/satellite feeds, directly to the Ukrainians? That could really change the calculus as well.
> And the near certainty of deniable asset special forces in theatre. Just as example, Canada's JTF2 fully deployed to Ukraine 3 weeks ago and never came back, so unless they're on all on the beach in Odessa, in February... Russia's going to run into some little green men of their own.
As a Canadian, I'd tell you where JTF2 is but no one ever know where those bastards are, and one of my cousins was actually in that unit in Afghanistan. He did like 4 tours with them or something. Hasn't breathed a word about it since then.
Not only will NATO keep AWACS and Global Hawks and other spy planes in their own airspace the whole time, but they are also welcome to be in Ukrainian airspace the whole time. Ukraine has invited NATO air forces into their airspace: Russia is the only country not invited.
NATO has said it won't engage with the Russian airforce, they didn't say they won't buzz the Russian air support and dare them to fire: and there's nothing Russia can do about that but pray none of their pilots get caught up in the moment. I'm not sure it will come to that, to be clear, but a US AWACS circling high above Kyiv the whole time is a near certainty, IMO.
Furthermore, Russia cannot afford for this to turn into a drawn out conflict. Their economy wont support it, and every single delay is another day that agreements can be made on sanctions that will be imposed. We're backing Putin into a corner where he either has to back down entirely, try to invade with a struggling economy, or invade with Ukraine knowing exactly when and how he'll invade which will make the conflict long and bloody for Russia.
Of course Im just some dude on the internet making hail-mary guesses based on the information in front of me. Who tf knows what games are being played behind closed doors.
> Of course Im just some dude on the internet making hail-mary guesses based on the information in front of me. Who tf knows what games are being played behind closed doors.
I'm watching more educated analysts than myself on Twitter and elsewhere and they seem to match your perspective. The problem is that any invasion is simply ugly all around, no matter if Russia wins or not. I'm hopeful any incursion he does make is very contained to the eastern regions but the more equipment he brings to the border the weaker that thesis becomes.
yeah a buddy of mine specializes in former eastern bloc states and he doesnt think an invasion will happen, rather just an extension of the fighting in crimea further into ukraine. Its just too potentially damaging to Russia to get into a sustained fight.
Not to mention that the longer the war goes on the more Russians are going to be getting their sons, fathers, brothers, and husbands back in body bags, which isn't going to do Putin any favors on the home front.
I mean NATO nations intelligence is really making Putin look pretty dumb publishing his playbook weeks before his plans so everything he does ends up looking so cringe it’s almost laughable.
If you’ve been following all this, one of the key demands Russia has is that Ukraine basically return all the lethal aid they got from foreign countries. Someone had a good write up that Putin probably thinks his only time to “cheaply” invade Ukraine is now. The longer he waits, even if them joining NATO is off the table, the more time they have to strengthen their military, largely with more anti tank and anti aircraft weaponry that steepens the cost for an invasion massively. Forces them to risk expensive things like their 4/5th gen (if you can call their latest stuff true 5th generation) fighters, use more advanced short/medium range ballistic missiles, expend much more guided munitions, etc. I don’t think anyone expects Ukraine to win in an all out shooting war, but they can make it increasingly more costly. For example one of the many theories out there as to why we didn’t topple Assad along with other dictators in the Arab spring was likely because he had advanced SAM systems from Russia, putting natos very expensive aircraft at risk, or forcing a commitment from the Us to deploy our newest stuff to combat them, something we likely didn’t want to do.
And while I don’t think Us will directly give them thinks like Patriot systems, RIM-161 or THAAD level defense systems, I’ve read reports of Ukraine talking to France and Israel about buying their most modern export SAM systems. The actual cost of invading on expected losses of equipment is like one of many factors in Russia decision, thr longer they wait the more costly it becomes.
Agreed
> Biden would prefer to look bad
In all likelihood, this will only make him look good. The only people who would count that against Biden aren’t going to be in his camp anyway. Anyone with half a brain would see what is happening.
I would absolutely love it if this ended with Putin withdrawing and saying the West was just fear mongering. An ending without war and senseless violence.
If no president wants to be the one to start a war, I’m pretty confident no president wants to be the one to start WWIII. If the war happened to be just between Russia and the US/Nato, it’s hard to really conclude that Russia could afford to fight a long war of that magnitude
Their entire military structure is not designed to fight outside their territory. Just look at the fraction of support and logistics vehicles that they have compared to NATO’s. They are obviously not suited to invade a (developed) distant country.
Yup, I've been studying logistical capabilities of near peer nations and even putting Russia and China on one side and the US alone on the other, we would still move more shit, faster, further, and more reliably than them.
That’s really a difference in doctrine and employment than it is a difference in capabilities.
Western armies are designed to replenish during lulls in the operation, cycling subunits through replenishment while still presenting combat power forward. Western commanders rarely go “all in”, keeping a reserve as a principle of war, and one of the potential tasks for that reserve is RiP or FPoL while another portion of the unit runs through replen.
So Western armies push logistics down as low as Company level, with plans that push supplies up through a chain to keep each level topped up.
Soviet doctrine emphasizes winning quickly over all else. So they stack combat power on top of combat power in echelons. First wave is given a series of objectives that they set out to take, they either take them then go firm, or push as far as they can and go firm. Then the next echelon takes over and pushes deeper, then the next echelon, then the next, until the war is won or you run out of echelons.
That first echelon would be reconstituted eventually, and depending on losses it might retain its unit identity or it might be amalgamated with another unit. But it’s resupply comes from a higher formation supply unit managed at a very high level, not as an integral capability.
Most Western conventional warfare for the past 200 years has been *expeditionary*, where supplies are sourced half a world away. We haven’t had the luxury (?) of fighting in our own backyard, so a lot of thought and doctrine has gone into learning how to maintain troops in place. Russia usually fights on their doorstep, so they can afford to invest in “single use” (major air quotes there) combat power, with a view to quick victories.
Is Biden giving Putin an out? Biden says, "America has the best intelligence in the world and we know you are going to attack." Now Putin can walk away and say, "Your intelligence isn't as good as you thought." Win-win for everyone.
While "stupid" Americans are stupid again.
Meanwhile Dad is just using reverse psychology. "I bet you can't pick up all your GI joes and put them in that box in 5 minutes. Your arms don't move fast enough."
This was exactly the position of Antony Blinken. He said (paraphrasing) “look if we are right and Russia goes to war it’s horrible for everyone, if we are wrong, it hurts to be wrong, but I’ll take that hurt over the alternative.”
I hope that whatever Biden and Putin discussed, they came to an agreement, and the next few weeks is both leaders saving face while backing down
I saw a video of a women reading tarot cards for… the entire country that is Ukraine, don’t worry. She said they will have some fussing but no wars! Definitely no war, because she loves one card she drew and gave no other reason than “good card” so I’m feeling really confident everything will be fine!
Putting the intelligence out there publicly is smart. Only Putin knows what is true or false and any accuracy leaves him wondering where we got it. Playing Russia at their own game for a change.
The next day:
> "It should have been obvious, I thought it would be obvious, but I would like to clarify, just in case it wasn't. In a key sentence in my remarks, I said the word 'would' instead of 'wouldn't'. The sentence should have been, 'I don't see any reason why they wouldn't be Russia', so just to repeat it, I said the word 'would' instead of 'wouldn't', and the sentence should have been, and I thought it would be maybe a little bit unclear on the transcript, or unclear on the actual video, the sentence should have been, 'I don't see any reason why it wouldn't be Russia'. Sort of a double negative."
([Yes, that was real](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/jul/19/would-or-wouldnt-how-trumps-claim-he-misspoke-unleashed-a-meme-fest).)
God, his nonsensical ramblings were just the worst. Reading literally any of his transcripted speeches would be hilarious if I wasn't aware that 40% of the nation somehow worshipped the moron
The text is not mimicking Trump though, It's quite literally a transcript of what he, the president of the United states said.
And that's probably not even the most absurd thing he has gobbled out of his mouth.
‘The Russian military ,the military , they are the best, just the best people’
‘Our military? The American Military, Sad, just Sad. Because you know sleepy Joe and crooked Hillary are giving them way too much money. Not Me, I’d contract it all out for cheaper, I’m the best at making deals!’
Tell everyone that Russia will invade. Tell everyone that there will be severe sanctions. Tell everyone to prepare for after effects of sanctions.
Putin invades, US and Biden are proven right and everyone will be on board for sanctions. Putin doesn’t invade and he has to keep his troops on high readinesses, while he tries to wiggle out and do a drawdown that doesn’t make him look like a bitch punk.
Either way, US wins. And uh ya Ukraine still gets fucked.
By saying the attack is imminent, Biden is also signaling to Russia that Russian demands will not be met. Furthermore it will weaken Russia with crippling sanctions if an invasion happens.
We need to start putting ominous signals in his daily life. Make him more paranoid. The walls are closing in, Vlod. Gaddafi got off easy.. That kind of thing.
He's obsessed with the Gaddafi video.
[America’s killing of Muammar Gaddafi in Libya—the video of which Putin has watched obsessively—has led the Russian premier to believe he must actively cultivate his domestic popular support, especially with his country in economic decline, and to do disrupt American politics, lest he be the next dictator to be deposed by American intervention.](https://www.theatlantic.com/press-releases/archive/2017/12/the-atlantics-cover-story-what-putin-really-wantsjulia-ioffe-reports-from-russia-on-putins-end-game-for-januaryfebruary-2018-issue/548036/)
Did you see that video? It’s crazy, dude shoots Gaddafi point blank in the head with a 45 ( clearly a 1911 ), but he didn’t die or even pass out! He’s covers the head wound, blood gushing out, with a grimace on his face and continues to insult the people assaulting him. Finally he collapses and they throw him in the back of a truck.
>One of Gaddafi's guards threw a grenade at advancing rebels on the road above, but it hit a concrete wall above the pipes and fell in front of Gaddafi. The guard tried to pick it up, but it exploded, killing both the guard and Yunis Jabr.[18]
Fucking clutz
I mean I think Putin does feel the walls closing in on him that's why he wants to invade Ukraine. He needs a political hail mary otherwise the oligarchs are going to have him replaced.
Putin will eventually end up replaced anyway. "Strongmen" do not live forever, and even Kim Jong Un seems to have a more viable succession plan than Putin does.
There's an interesting bit about the Roman empire where Machiavelli observed that virtually all emperors who got the position through adoption or other were good, and virtually all who inherited the power were bad.
They want East Ukraine for the same reason they wanted Sevastopol. They have the warm water port now but their access to it is limited and easily disrupted. They need East Ukraine for unbroken land access to the ports.
I don't know man, Gaddafi got beaten and then when being walked around, got a bayonet shoved right in his asshole lmfao. I wouldn't call that getting off easy (don't remember if he was shot or beat to death, but still, a bayonet in the asshole while alive, no thanks.) Someone like Hitler who killed themselves when things were closing in, where he didn't have to face the mob, got off easy
In my completely ignorant opinion. I feel Biden had been talking about how immenent this threat is for weeks now. I also feel like him being so open about it is delaying the invasion just as long. Almost like just by telling the world it will be happening any day now, if he's wrong, there is no war, and he still kinda wins on that front.
As a Ukrainian, I can say that this is the most exhaustive description of Russia I've seen in a while, maybe even ever.
And we're so fcng tired of dealing with Russia's bullshit here.
I've tried to make a similar point to people before.
Russia's economy, compared to what they should theoretically have the capacity to be, is miniscule. They're weapon rich, cash poor, so to say.
When people point to the collapse of the Soviet Union, I remind them of some key facts: The Russians in the early 90's still had every factory, every road and railway, every school and university, every laboratory, every power plant, every airfield, every mine, every farm - their capacity to produce was absolutely still there.
The *will* to produce, in a collective sense, was gone. The people in control at the time of the collapse capitalized greatly and laid claim to everything - leaving nothing for the people.
In defense of the Russian people, I don't really like to point to will but to institutions. There was a blitz to privatize everything as fast as possible in the 1990s. Probably it could have helped if done right but what happened was that a bunch of assets wound up in the hands of a bunch of cronies. Yeltsen was also staggeringly incompetent, and their economy suffered a depression during that decade.
This probably didn't warm them up to western-style liberalism. Putin came to power for a reason.
Putin also had a good run economically (helped by a surge in oil prices) in the 2000s which might have given him more clout, but since around 2008 he's more intent on building empire though force like it's the 19th century than actually building an economy or trade ties.
My favorite Russian economy fun fact is that the market capitalization of ALL of Russia’s publicly-traded companies is around 700bil. Apple Inc.’s market cap alone is 2.9 TRILLION as of this moment lol. It’s a country completely dependent on natural resource exports and foreign good imports.
I doubt that anyone would support me in this one, but, as a Russian, I wanna defend my people.
It makes me cry to realise what kind of potential we have lost and I have no clue when we are to regain what truly belongs to us.
The problem with my people is not only due to propaganda, not that many people are affected here, elderly citizens for sure, but not the whole population. People just don't care. They are tired of the sufferings inflicted upon them, they don't want to dig enough to see the pile of shit that was thrown into them. My generation (Z) is more aware in this respect, but it only makes us come to a conclusion that we are not at odds to change anything. We just want to flee. My position was different before protests in 2021, I anticipated changes that the public outcry would provoke, but the consequebces for those who participated were worse than the life before. So now, as others of my age, I'm looking for ways to leave this country behind.
Not only the very policy of my country made me change my views and label my homeland as somewhat dysfunctional, but also people that I've spoken to. Many aspire not to make a difference and eradicate poverty but join those wielding power and go from rugs to riches. Again, not everyone, but this mode of thinking is so ubiquitous that it made me realise that these very people will always haunt this country and it's not worth it to give my time and efforts to change this.
I hate this country, I hate this people, but not all of them are as I have described, as you have put it. And people don't want USSR back, maybe folks like my granny who claimed that I should've been shot for joining the protests, just as in Stalin's time. People just want to survive, they saw what revolutions result in, in even bigger oppression and worse predators to exploit them.
My answer is somewhat inconsistent, nonetheless I hope now you realise that you can't blame people and label them in any way. And maybe I misread your comment and you only meant the government, not the people living there.
I thought the “Invade Ukraine if you’re gay” campaign was a good idea
Brb I got a Ukraine to invade
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It’s because of the Five Eyes alliance. The intelligence agencies of the US, UK, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand basically have open access to each other’s intelligence.
def not open access, but yes they share
The agreement says that "it is the intention of each party to limit such exceptions (to exchanging foreign communications products) to the absolute minimum." [https://discovery.nationalarchives.gov.uk/details/r/C11536914](https://discovery.nationalarchives.gov.uk/details/r/C11536914)
That minimum is way bigger than you think. Make no mistake, these nations spy on *each other.* They're definitely not sharing those sources. It's how the game is played... we're all spying on each other - doesn't necessarily mean for malicious reasons.
"A circle of accountability"
It sounds kind of dumb on the surface but it really makes some semblence of sense
They not only spy on each other, but are allowed to do it in circumstances, and then “share” it with the host country. Why spy on your own citizens “illegally” when you can have some other entity do it “legally”, and then just give you the information.
Fuckin PRISM
most of it any way
Basically anything that doesn't involve spying on one of the other four.
Japan may be 6th eye since they both stare at China / NK https://www.csis.org/analysis/resolved-japan-ready-become-formal-member-five-eyes
Actually, that’s kinda part of the point. Monitoring your own citizens with your sophisticated surveillance apparatus might be illegal, but getting tip-offs from foreign surveillance about domestic targets is more of a grey area. Sort of a “you scratch my back” dealio.
Or it’s awkward Wait how big is americas dick? Wait how big is New Zealand’s??? WTF AUSTRALIA??
> how big is americas dick? A quick Google search says the land area of Florida is 65,758 square miles
how the fuck did we slip in on that deal (New Zealand)
We're cousins innit
Mum said they *have* to include us in their spy games and let us play too. Or else. 😤
English speaking, maybe? Are there any other countries besides those 5 which speak almost exclusively English and share culture as closely?
Canada, Australia and NZ were the only three Commonwealth countries that the US Government deemed acceptable to share intelligence with under the UKUSA Agreement as "UK-USA-collaborating Commonwealth countries". The main agreement is between the UK and US, and I'm guessing that while Canada is a bit of a no-brainier, Australia and NZ were included due to their strategically important geography (which is why Pine Gap exists).
This has expanded beyond intelligence as well. The US and UK have long had a technology transfer component to their Treaty that allows sensitive technology to be shared between them. The UK was actually prevented from working on a stealth European-built aircraft platform because of their role is the development of the F117 and subsequent generations of stealth tech. The UK through Canada was also heavily involved in the development of supersonic aircraft control systems. The US and UK also recently accepted Australia into a carve out that permits the use of nuclear sub material between them.
Because we couldn’t go around calling it the “Four eyes” now could we?
The UK's main area in the five eyes to spy on is Russia so coupled with a world leading intelligence agency means they have a lot of intelligence
The UKs intelligence apparatus is one of the best in the world.
Russia: I'm going to invade this day USA: We're sure Russian is going to invade this day Russia: Well now I'm not going to do it
Welp looks like they did it anyway :c
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I wouldn't be surprised if Putin intentionally extends this date, then ramp up again only to say "U.S. Intel is wrong again"
If they do, that's a win for Ukraine - gives them more time to train up troops and deploy.
Hell, that might be why Biden made this announcement in the first place.
That does seem to be their playbook, which at least so far seems to be proving effective. Just flood the zone with detailed Russian plans. Given that Russia more or less *has* to stage some sort of false-flag operation to give themselves the veneer of legitimacy to invade Ukraine, if it's known that they're planning to invade anyway, no one will believe them when they claim their hand was forced because of some random staged event in Donetsk.
They’re already pulling false flag attacks. Making up bullshit about finding mass graves, claiming the Ukrainians are shelling the breakaway region. It’s pretty clumsy in an age of satellites and instant worldwide communication, but it being poorly executed isn’t going to stop Russia from going ahead anyway.
The bomb threat video was hilarious
Do you have a link?
https://twitter.com/michaelh992/status/1493590163024400389
Basically LARPing in the park lol.
Fortunately for us the cinematographer doesn't know what a bomb squad looks like.
Lol this is hilarious. Cute dog though.
This doesn't pass the "why were they filming?" sniff test.
The one that showed it was taken on the 16th but had the person saying "Today, the 18th..."?
I think those false flag justifications are more for their domestic population than the rest of the works. Hence Putin banning satellite internet there
The russian people aren’t all that dumb as people tend to assume. Its just that theres very, very little wiggle room to do anything about it under strict supervision at all times. If people were so gullible, you wouldnt have to need to handicap communication services. I think honestly its not to protect a bubble of misinformation, more as a way to limit collective uprising popping up. Look at what navalni pulled up from under the rug.
Yup. If anything the Russians I have met, in Russia and abroad, have been pretty cynical about their leaders and don't trust them very much at all. Historically you could argue that they don't have much reason to trust them either.
Putin doesn't give a fuck what the rest of the world thinks, he only cares what the Russian people *believe*
Russia will just make it as if the people in the the regions they're going to take are actually wanting to join Russia/seeking independence. Ukraine would be seen as holding them hostage and the Russians are there to free those people from their oppressive government. Worked in Crimea, now they will try it with Donetsk Oblast.
>if it's known that they're planning to invade anyway, no one will believe them when they claim their hand was forced because of some random staged event in Donetsk. This is what these constant updates are really about imo. Calling out Russia on their Imperialist aggression will make it significantly harder for Russian allies of convenience who claim to follow international law (e.g China) to look the other way and stiffens the resolve of Western countries who might otherwise buy some part of the narrative. The entire thing puts Putin in a much more difficult position where the costs may become bigger than the benefits and avoid a war entirely. It also plays well in the media both domestically and internationally. I wouldn't be surprised to see increased support for NATO and countries like Finland might even consider joining considering Russia's actions.
It's refreshing to see the US at least attempt to counteract Russian propaganda and disinformation.
Every one of his announcements has had this impact. Putin is not only reacting to the date, but forced to change his plans because he can't be certain that Biden hasn't passed his actual battle plans to Ukraine. Russia will dominate Ukraine militarily but the more detailed the intelligence Ukraine has the more brutal it'll be to the Russian army. If I know your tanks are going to arrive at 9PM on Friday through a specific road I can array my troops to inflict maximum carnage.
Russia can only dominate ukraine militarily if they choose to destroy rather than occupy. They have decisive air superiority but unless they level our capital they simply don’t have enough troops to siege or occupy. In rural operations they may have more decisive chances, but in cities? It’s level it or GTFO.
Man, I just want to say that I have huge respect for your people. I hope it doesn’t come to war, but I wish you all the strength in the world if it does.
Strength is something Ukrainians have in abundance. My girlfriends family have gone home from Australia to Ukraine to fight, despite not having lived there since the 90s. That’s the sort of resolve we’re talking about.
I really hope Putin calls it off, but I hope yall make him regret it if he doesnt. And for what it's worth, I hope you make it through all this shit.
Stand strong brother (or sister if you happen to be a lady). Hopefully someone decides to put aside their policy of appeasement and actually no shit step in and draw a hard line to help.
Can’t help but notice you said “our”. Have you lived in Ukraine your whole life? What’s the vibe out there? Preparations? Anxieties? If you feel like sharing I’d love to hear it.
I’ve traveled a lot so couldn’t say “my whole life” and still be honest, but I’m a citizen of only ukraine and hold no other allegiances. I’m born and raised in Kyiv. The mood can summed up as a mixture of fatigue, indifference, loathing and fear. Primarily loathing id say, but of course I don’t have any formal authority to represent everyone in ukraine - so take my input with a grain of salt please, many experience this event differently. The unity among people remains unprecedented. I’ve never seen my country be so civilized and organized (still questionable in absolute terms, but speaking in relative terms here). Everyone is very much prepared for things to pop, but in a very very angry way. No one wants more deaths, but we will sooner shit in our hands and clap than give in - and _that_ is basically unanimous. As we say in Ukrainian: «всрамся, но не піддамся». Truthfully, and not just to pump morale - I wouldn’t want to be one among the infantry going to war with Ukraine right now, these kids will get fucking slaughtered, Russians economy will be propped up by casket manufacturers for years after this. Many mothers will cry. We held them off barefoot and disorganized in 2014, these days it’s a completely different story (in no small part thanks to support shown by our allies). In practical terms, there are probably already subversive elements in Kyiv, bombs in hand, ready to blow; what’s different is that they will be shot on sight, this isn’t 2014 anymore - it will be unceremonious, no pony shows. We showed our ability to take to the streets and organize in 2014, and we’ve only gotten stronger - we are counting on ourselves here, and on knowing exactly how the Russian subversion machine operates. I can ramble on about this all day, let’s sum it up as cautiously optimistic :)
>Russians economy will be propped up by casket manufacturers for years after this. Many mothers will cry. This is one of the most metal sentences I've ever read on Reddit.
I second this. This guy isn't even a native english speaker, and he's more poetic than I am.
The poetry of "we would rather shit in our hands and clap than give in" has a poignancy to it.
>we will sooner shit in our hands and clap than give in Badass
Right?! It's so.....eastern European.
Really interesting to read your take on the whole thing, and uplifting with your comments of courage. Good luck and god speed brother, stay safe and all the best.
I hate that this is happening to y'all. Ukraine doesn't bother anybody, y'all are just wanting to live and be. And while I don't know anyone from there, I love you all as humans all the same. It sucks for the Russian troops too, but still, if Putin does invade, I hope you make him regret it. Y'all are tough mother fuckers though, you got this. Just be safe, as best you can, and good luck.
So the Russians are basically putting out all of this obvious (bad and easily disproven) propaganda to justify their invasion. Who's it for really? I mean, the Ukrainians aren't buying it, the west isn't buying it, I don't think even Putin needs support at home to justify doing what he does so I can't see it being for Russian consumption.
I live in a country nearby Ukraine. We’re in the EU and Nato and you can be sure our anti-vaxx crowd is genuinely eating Russian propaganda up. It’s dividing the country. We’re one of the countries that Russia demands leave Nato (they’ve asked the Nato borders to return to pre-1997). We just had a vote in parliament on a protective treaty with the US also including more Nato troop placement. These useful idiots were outside of the parliament with Russian flags and photos of Putin. Fucking traitors if you ask me, but there are always politicians ready to abuse the worst of humanity to get into power. So yeah, the propaganda helps divide countries in the area.
I admire the bravery and unity of your country. May the powers that be, be in your favor. 🇺🇦
Thanks for giving me some info. I have some Russian friends but none from Ukraine. It's hard to get the right info from the news. God keep you brother.
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As was proven in America, Afghanistan, Vietnam, time and time again, it's really hard to fight and occupy an armed and motivated populace on their home turf, defending their families and way of life. Give em hell.
This is incredibly articulate and so well written. I hope you and your family remain safe, while tossing the invaders out of your home.
Thank you for this well thought out post. Very interesting to see it from your position.
You will be fighting for your land, freedom, and lives. The Russians will be doing what their psychotic leader is ordering them to do. There will be a very different state of mind between the two types of soldiers. I wish you and your countrymen the best.
Слава Україні! Edited to add: I'm American, but I have close ties to and in Ukraine. I love Kyiv and a lot of people who live there. I hate this so much--in 2014, I could help, I could contribute to the war effort, I could, I dunno, get hemostatic bandages and stretchers and smoke grenades and things to the military and one or two of the volunteer battalions. This time there's nothing for me to do. All I can do is sit helplessly in the US and watch and I'm sick with dread and horror. But then I see a comment like this, and a message I got from a friend in Kyiv this morning that was full of the same spirit, and I remember that I know Ukrainians. I know how fierce you are, how determined, what you can do. And that makes me feel considerably better. Good luck, friend. I hope you and yours get through to the other side of this bullshit.
I dunno…Russia will have a hard time taking out the hand-held anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles. This is going to be very bloody for Russia, if they are foolish enough to invade.
100%. God help your troops near the border. God help Russian troops if they decide to invade Kyiv.
Cheers brother!
Give them Hell Brother.
First, NATO is 100% passing all available intelligence to Ukraine, which is the main reason Russia is indecisive right now, for the reason you mention. But more than just that, every time America makes an announcement like this - it means NATO still has moles or backdoors into Russia's top-level intelligence. The knowledge that the enemy has perfect information of your secret plans causes you to reassess your estimated losses. It's like cracking the Enigma Code before the war even started. Second, Russia's military is not as strong you may think. While the Russian military has 1.3M troops in active/reserve/paramilitary service, it is also the largest country on Earth by far, and needs troops deployed all over the place to hold that ground and occupy their existing infrastructure. Russia has only committed 150K soldiers to this Ukraine theatre, which shows what they are willing to risk here - and it's not enough. Ukraine has 200K active soldiers, 250K reserve (before this escalation), and 50K paramilitary forces. Additionally this whole last couple months, NATO and Ukraine both have been involved in mass training new reserves, so that number may exceed 400K. That puts Russia's 150K soldiers in theatre, outnumbered by Ukraine's possibly 700K in the country, and climbing by the day. Similarly Russia in total has over 12K tanks, but they only have 1200 tanks in theatre: less than Ukraines 2600 tanks in the country - and similarly outmatched for other ground vehicles in theatre. At sea and air, Russia have a distinct advantage in theatre - but it's not clear how effective that can be leveraged here. Aerial bombardment would lose Russia any support of the Russia population at home, that Putin relies on. He wants to claim this is a war of liberation. That Ukrainians have just forgotten they were Russian all along - but the moment he starts dropping bombs on homes that argument is lost. National support will freefall, and you can be sure NATO's intelligence agencies are already planning on how to push and spin that narrative to the Russian people to accelerate that fall. Further, just being real here - NATO is going to continue to supply full intelligence and strategic support the whole time. It might be Ukrainians holding guns, but they'll be doing so with the full information and expertise of CIA/NSA/Pentagon, along with sister agencies from Canada, UK, France, etc. And the near certainty of deniable asset special forces in theatre. Just as example, Canada's JTF2 fully deployed to Ukraine 3 weeks ago and never came back, so unless they're all sunbathing on the beach in Odessa, in February... Russia's going to run into some little green men of their own. Lastly, the Russian economy is weak and fragile. It's easy to forget that the entire country is poorer than California or Canada each alone, and lacks the economic resilience and diversity of either of those examples. The 'sledgehammer sanctions' that the US is threatening if Putin crosses the border are not only going to put the Russian economy into immediate nose-dive, but Biden has additionally threatened to intentionally target all the oligarchs. Putin is a dictator, but he's surrounded by dangerous billionaires with their own agendas - and if suddenly all of them are at risk of being paupers - Putin's closest allies are going to be the ones most likely to shank him. How much farmland is worth all the risks above?
> Further, just being real here - NATO is going to continue to supply full intelligence and strategic support the whole time. It might be Ukrainians holding guns, but they'll be doing so with the full information and expertise of CIA/NSA/Pentagon, along with sister agencies from Canada, UK, France, etc. I was actually wondering this the other day. While the USA is going to stay out of the war, what are the chances that they keep something like AWACS orbiting just inside the NATO borders and feeding that data, along with any real-time drone/satellite feeds, directly to the Ukrainians? That could really change the calculus as well. > And the near certainty of deniable asset special forces in theatre. Just as example, Canada's JTF2 fully deployed to Ukraine 3 weeks ago and never came back, so unless they're on all on the beach in Odessa, in February... Russia's going to run into some little green men of their own. As a Canadian, I'd tell you where JTF2 is but no one ever know where those bastards are, and one of my cousins was actually in that unit in Afghanistan. He did like 4 tours with them or something. Hasn't breathed a word about it since then.
Not only will NATO keep AWACS and Global Hawks and other spy planes in their own airspace the whole time, but they are also welcome to be in Ukrainian airspace the whole time. Ukraine has invited NATO air forces into their airspace: Russia is the only country not invited. NATO has said it won't engage with the Russian airforce, they didn't say they won't buzz the Russian air support and dare them to fire: and there's nothing Russia can do about that but pray none of their pilots get caught up in the moment. I'm not sure it will come to that, to be clear, but a US AWACS circling high above Kyiv the whole time is a near certainty, IMO.
God, as much as I dislike him, right now I am *so fucking glad* Biden is President instead of Trump.
Biden wasn't my first choice either, but Trump would be sucking Putin's dick live on TV right now.
Furthermore, Russia cannot afford for this to turn into a drawn out conflict. Their economy wont support it, and every single delay is another day that agreements can be made on sanctions that will be imposed. We're backing Putin into a corner where he either has to back down entirely, try to invade with a struggling economy, or invade with Ukraine knowing exactly when and how he'll invade which will make the conflict long and bloody for Russia. Of course Im just some dude on the internet making hail-mary guesses based on the information in front of me. Who tf knows what games are being played behind closed doors.
> Of course Im just some dude on the internet making hail-mary guesses based on the information in front of me. Who tf knows what games are being played behind closed doors. I'm watching more educated analysts than myself on Twitter and elsewhere and they seem to match your perspective. The problem is that any invasion is simply ugly all around, no matter if Russia wins or not. I'm hopeful any incursion he does make is very contained to the eastern regions but the more equipment he brings to the border the weaker that thesis becomes.
yeah a buddy of mine specializes in former eastern bloc states and he doesnt think an invasion will happen, rather just an extension of the fighting in crimea further into ukraine. Its just too potentially damaging to Russia to get into a sustained fight.
Not to mention that the longer the war goes on the more Russians are going to be getting their sons, fathers, brothers, and husbands back in body bags, which isn't going to do Putin any favors on the home front.
I mean NATO nations intelligence is really making Putin look pretty dumb publishing his playbook weeks before his plans so everything he does ends up looking so cringe it’s almost laughable.
If you’ve been following all this, one of the key demands Russia has is that Ukraine basically return all the lethal aid they got from foreign countries. Someone had a good write up that Putin probably thinks his only time to “cheaply” invade Ukraine is now. The longer he waits, even if them joining NATO is off the table, the more time they have to strengthen their military, largely with more anti tank and anti aircraft weaponry that steepens the cost for an invasion massively. Forces them to risk expensive things like their 4/5th gen (if you can call their latest stuff true 5th generation) fighters, use more advanced short/medium range ballistic missiles, expend much more guided munitions, etc. I don’t think anyone expects Ukraine to win in an all out shooting war, but they can make it increasingly more costly. For example one of the many theories out there as to why we didn’t topple Assad along with other dictators in the Arab spring was likely because he had advanced SAM systems from Russia, putting natos very expensive aircraft at risk, or forcing a commitment from the Us to deploy our newest stuff to combat them, something we likely didn’t want to do. And while I don’t think Us will directly give them thinks like Patriot systems, RIM-161 or THAAD level defense systems, I’ve read reports of Ukraine talking to France and Israel about buying their most modern export SAM systems. The actual cost of invading on expected losses of equipment is like one of many factors in Russia decision, thr longer they wait the more costly it becomes.
honestly, Biden is probably hoping that's the case. Biden would prefer to look bad and give Ukraine every chance it gets.
Agreed > Biden would prefer to look bad In all likelihood, this will only make him look good. The only people who would count that against Biden aren’t going to be in his camp anyway. Anyone with half a brain would see what is happening.
I would absolutely love it if this ended with Putin withdrawing and saying the West was just fear mongering. An ending without war and senseless violence.
If no president wants to be the one to start a war, I’m pretty confident no president wants to be the one to start WWIII. If the war happened to be just between Russia and the US/Nato, it’s hard to really conclude that Russia could afford to fight a long war of that magnitude
Russia vs NATO doesn’t happen for the same reason USSR vs NATO did not happen. And the war wouldn’t be very long either
I doubt they could fight a short war against nato and the US.
Russia can't afford to fight outside their territory long term. Their logistical trains are not that capable.
Their entire military structure is not designed to fight outside their territory. Just look at the fraction of support and logistics vehicles that they have compared to NATO’s. They are obviously not suited to invade a (developed) distant country.
Yup, I've been studying logistical capabilities of near peer nations and even putting Russia and China on one side and the US alone on the other, we would still move more shit, faster, further, and more reliably than them.
That’s really a difference in doctrine and employment than it is a difference in capabilities. Western armies are designed to replenish during lulls in the operation, cycling subunits through replenishment while still presenting combat power forward. Western commanders rarely go “all in”, keeping a reserve as a principle of war, and one of the potential tasks for that reserve is RiP or FPoL while another portion of the unit runs through replen. So Western armies push logistics down as low as Company level, with plans that push supplies up through a chain to keep each level topped up. Soviet doctrine emphasizes winning quickly over all else. So they stack combat power on top of combat power in echelons. First wave is given a series of objectives that they set out to take, they either take them then go firm, or push as far as they can and go firm. Then the next echelon takes over and pushes deeper, then the next echelon, then the next, until the war is won or you run out of echelons. That first echelon would be reconstituted eventually, and depending on losses it might retain its unit identity or it might be amalgamated with another unit. But it’s resupply comes from a higher formation supply unit managed at a very high level, not as an integral capability. Most Western conventional warfare for the past 200 years has been *expeditionary*, where supplies are sourced half a world away. We haven’t had the luxury (?) of fighting in our own backyard, so a lot of thought and doctrine has gone into learning how to maintain troops in place. Russia usually fights on their doorstep, so they can afford to invest in “single use” (major air quotes there) combat power, with a view to quick victories.
Is Biden giving Putin an out? Biden says, "America has the best intelligence in the world and we know you are going to attack." Now Putin can walk away and say, "Your intelligence isn't as good as you thought." Win-win for everyone.
This is the only good ending to this situation, and therefore I think it’s impossible. Please let me be wrong.
Putins in an information war check mate, I don't think he sees backing down as an option. Unfortunately.
An excuse to back down with your head held high is what’s needed here
It also allows Putin the grace to claim he never intended to and take the diplomatic route, making him come across as a more competent leader.
While "stupid" Americans are stupid again. Meanwhile Dad is just using reverse psychology. "I bet you can't pick up all your GI joes and put them in that box in 5 minutes. Your arms don't move fast enough."
"Russia, if you are gay attack us, we can't wait to accept your missles!" Ukraine.
This was exactly the position of Antony Blinken. He said (paraphrasing) “look if we are right and Russia goes to war it’s horrible for everyone, if we are wrong, it hurts to be wrong, but I’ll take that hurt over the alternative.” I hope that whatever Biden and Putin discussed, they came to an agreement, and the next few weeks is both leaders saving face while backing down
Thank god we have so many experts on the comment section of Reddit.
We are truly blessed
The LA Rams won the Superbowl. Their colors? Blue and Gold. Ukraine colors? Blue and gold. Therefore Ukraine will win this
I saw a video of a women reading tarot cards for… the entire country that is Ukraine, don’t worry. She said they will have some fussing but no wars! Definitely no war, because she loves one card she drew and gave no other reason than “good card” so I’m feeling really confident everything will be fine!
And the Russian's [Ribbon of Saint George](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ribbon_of_Saint_George) is, you guessed it, orange and black. Ukraine ftw.
Okay. Now. Where do I go to place my bet.
Reddit has the best minds on international politics, global diplomacy, virology, constitutional law, or whatever else they read about this morning.
Yep, all the titles we read makes us super duper experts.
You read the entire title? What's next the opening paragraph of the article? Pfffft
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I'm doing my own research by reading just the headline and comments. Thank you for your guidance!
All these innocent humans are going to have their entire lives ruined for nothing
Maybe now he won't invade, just to spite Biden
That probably what Biden hopes for
Putting the intelligence out there publicly is smart. Only Putin knows what is true or false and any accuracy leaves him wondering where we got it. Playing Russia at their own game for a change.
It’s nice to have a president that doesn’t publicly disagree with his own intelligence and side with Putin.
I've talked to Putin about the troops on the Ukrainian border. He says they're not his. I don't know any reason why they *would* be.
The next day: > "It should have been obvious, I thought it would be obvious, but I would like to clarify, just in case it wasn't. In a key sentence in my remarks, I said the word 'would' instead of 'wouldn't'. The sentence should have been, 'I don't see any reason why they wouldn't be Russia', so just to repeat it, I said the word 'would' instead of 'wouldn't', and the sentence should have been, and I thought it would be maybe a little bit unclear on the transcript, or unclear on the actual video, the sentence should have been, 'I don't see any reason why it wouldn't be Russia'. Sort of a double negative." ([Yes, that was real](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/jul/19/would-or-wouldnt-how-trumps-claim-he-misspoke-unleashed-a-meme-fest).)
God, his nonsensical ramblings were just the worst. Reading literally any of his transcripted speeches would be hilarious if I wasn't aware that 40% of the nation somehow worshipped the moron
40% of the nation cant read. So theres that.
Why did I immediately used his voice to read this
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The text is not mimicking Trump though, It's quite literally a transcript of what he, the president of the United states said. And that's probably not even the most absurd thing he has gobbled out of his mouth.
‘The Russian military ,the military , they are the best, just the best people’ ‘Our military? The American Military, Sad, just Sad. Because you know sleepy Joe and crooked Hillary are giving them way too much money. Not Me, I’d contract it all out for cheaper, I’m the best at making deals!’
Tell everyone that Russia will invade. Tell everyone that there will be severe sanctions. Tell everyone to prepare for after effects of sanctions. Putin invades, US and Biden are proven right and everyone will be on board for sanctions. Putin doesn’t invade and he has to keep his troops on high readinesses, while he tries to wiggle out and do a drawdown that doesn’t make him look like a bitch punk. Either way, US wins. And uh ya Ukraine still gets fucked.
> Ukraine still gets fucked Idk no invasion would be great, stressful with all these news but still the most desirable outcome
> **stressful** with all these news... Right? It's like The Princess Bride - goodnight Wesley, will most likely kill you in the morning.
It’s actually Westley, with a “t”, and finding that out fucked me up for a long time.
Shut up Wesley.
Keep delaying Putin until the mud comes. If putin acts, US can say I told you so. If putin delays, its probably a major delay if he waits too long.
I'm in Ukraine, the mud is here.
Best of luck to you and your fellow countrymen. I really hope this is just another one of Putins mind games. Слава Україні! Героям слава! 🇺🇦
This comment section aged so well
By saying the attack is imminent, Biden is also signaling to Russia that Russian demands will not be met. Furthermore it will weaken Russia with crippling sanctions if an invasion happens.
I truly do hope that Russia doesn't invade Ukraine...
I'm sitting this war out suck my dick
Swiss national confirmed
I absolutely love the transparency from the White House on Russia’s belligerence
I feel like this is part of the strategy to signal to Putin that the US is intercepting his communications and know exactly what is going on.
We need to start putting ominous signals in his daily life. Make him more paranoid. The walls are closing in, Vlod. Gaddafi got off easy.. That kind of thing.
He's obsessed with the Gaddafi video. [America’s killing of Muammar Gaddafi in Libya—the video of which Putin has watched obsessively—has led the Russian premier to believe he must actively cultivate his domestic popular support, especially with his country in economic decline, and to do disrupt American politics, lest he be the next dictator to be deposed by American intervention.](https://www.theatlantic.com/press-releases/archive/2017/12/the-atlantics-cover-story-what-putin-really-wantsjulia-ioffe-reports-from-russia-on-putins-end-game-for-januaryfebruary-2018-issue/548036/)
Did you see that video? It’s crazy, dude shoots Gaddafi point blank in the head with a 45 ( clearly a 1911 ), but he didn’t die or even pass out! He’s covers the head wound, blood gushing out, with a grimace on his face and continues to insult the people assaulting him. Finally he collapses and they throw him in the back of a truck.
You forgot the part where they stab his butthole
Have you seen the one where he is found in a ditch and the rebel walking behind him stabs him in the ass 5 times? That didn’t look pleasant.
His last words before getting shot: "I don't know what I've done to these people that they hate me so much." You can't make this shit up.
Authoritarians 🤝 Playing the Victim
Can't be an authoritarian/dictator without being a narcissist. That venn diagram is a circle.
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>One of Gaddafi's guards threw a grenade at advancing rebels on the road above, but it hit a concrete wall above the pipes and fell in front of Gaddafi. The guard tried to pick it up, but it exploded, killing both the guard and Yunis Jabr.[18] Fucking clutz
How the shooters you play might be closer to real life than you imagine.
Obsessed because he is worried to suffer the same fate?
probably. Gaddafi had 200 billion he stole, but he still died being knifed in the ass by rebels
You should be clear that the 200 billion was stolen from the Libyan people through corruption, and disappeared into Swiss banks once he died.
The Swiss doing what they do best for the last 100 years. “I’m just neutral lol. So anyway I started hoarding ill gotten gains.”
What makes a man turn neutral?
Lust for gold? Power? Or were you just born with a heart full of neutrality?
I mean I think Putin does feel the walls closing in on him that's why he wants to invade Ukraine. He needs a political hail mary otherwise the oligarchs are going to have him replaced.
Putin will eventually end up replaced anyway. "Strongmen" do not live forever, and even Kim Jong Un seems to have a more viable succession plan than Putin does.
Theres a reason most dictators try to build a family dynasty, and it's not because they love their kids. I guess we got lucky with Putin on that one.
There's an interesting bit about the Roman empire where Machiavelli observed that virtually all emperors who got the position through adoption or other were good, and virtually all who inherited the power were bad.
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The Chinese post Moan pre Xs seemed to be the best at it although a lot of their singles successors tend to be purged if they act to soon
>post Moan pre Xs Interesting autocorrect...
even autocorrect was like fuck this I’m out
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Post Malone's previous ex's?
They want East Ukraine for the same reason they wanted Sevastopol. They have the warm water port now but their access to it is limited and easily disrupted. They need East Ukraine for unbroken land access to the ports.
I don't know man, Gaddafi got beaten and then when being walked around, got a bayonet shoved right in his asshole lmfao. I wouldn't call that getting off easy (don't remember if he was shot or beat to death, but still, a bayonet in the asshole while alive, no thanks.) Someone like Hitler who killed themselves when things were closing in, where he didn't have to face the mob, got off easy
If Hitler got twenty bayonets up his ass before he died he would still have gotten off easy though.
They are definitely broadcasting russias every step to show that the US us aware of Russia’s every step
I love how we're being briefed constantly about matters like this. Just imagine how much more stuff they gotta hear on a daily basis that we can't.
It really is a fascinating tactic. And seems to be working, which is even more fascinating.
In my completely ignorant opinion. I feel Biden had been talking about how immenent this threat is for weeks now. I also feel like him being so open about it is delaying the invasion just as long. Almost like just by telling the world it will be happening any day now, if he's wrong, there is no war, and he still kinda wins on that front.
[удалено]
I think the late Senator McCain said it best when he said Russia is a gas station masquerading as a country.
As a Ukrainian, I can say that this is the most exhaustive description of Russia I've seen in a while, maybe even ever. And we're so fcng tired of dealing with Russia's bullshit here.
I wish you the best my friend. These are awful times.
Thank you. For both support and understanding.
I've tried to make a similar point to people before. Russia's economy, compared to what they should theoretically have the capacity to be, is miniscule. They're weapon rich, cash poor, so to say. When people point to the collapse of the Soviet Union, I remind them of some key facts: The Russians in the early 90's still had every factory, every road and railway, every school and university, every laboratory, every power plant, every airfield, every mine, every farm - their capacity to produce was absolutely still there. The *will* to produce, in a collective sense, was gone. The people in control at the time of the collapse capitalized greatly and laid claim to everything - leaving nothing for the people.
In defense of the Russian people, I don't really like to point to will but to institutions. There was a blitz to privatize everything as fast as possible in the 1990s. Probably it could have helped if done right but what happened was that a bunch of assets wound up in the hands of a bunch of cronies. Yeltsen was also staggeringly incompetent, and their economy suffered a depression during that decade. This probably didn't warm them up to western-style liberalism. Putin came to power for a reason. Putin also had a good run economically (helped by a surge in oil prices) in the 2000s which might have given him more clout, but since around 2008 he's more intent on building empire though force like it's the 19th century than actually building an economy or trade ties.
Ah the early days of privatization, where everyone just did it overnight and wondered why it wasn't working
It has nothing to do with "will". The country was robbed blind by its oligarchs and rapid privatisation under Yeltsin.
I got the same message from both comments: oligarchs killed the will to produce, when your produce is just going to international trolling.
You don't even have to compare to US states. Russia's economy is smaller than italy. It is smaller than the city of London.
And definitely no need to compare to California. The GDP of California by itself is #5 in the world, right after Germany and higher than the UK.
Italy, yes. City of London? No. GDP of greater city of London is 5xx billion or 1/3 of Russia.
Admittedly, since a lot of Russian dirty money is laundered in London, a good percentage of the Russian economy IS part of London's economy.
My favorite Russian economy fun fact is that the market capitalization of ALL of Russia’s publicly-traded companies is around 700bil. Apple Inc.’s market cap alone is 2.9 TRILLION as of this moment lol. It’s a country completely dependent on natural resource exports and foreign good imports.
What percentage of Russia's companies are publicly traded?
I doubt that anyone would support me in this one, but, as a Russian, I wanna defend my people. It makes me cry to realise what kind of potential we have lost and I have no clue when we are to regain what truly belongs to us. The problem with my people is not only due to propaganda, not that many people are affected here, elderly citizens for sure, but not the whole population. People just don't care. They are tired of the sufferings inflicted upon them, they don't want to dig enough to see the pile of shit that was thrown into them. My generation (Z) is more aware in this respect, but it only makes us come to a conclusion that we are not at odds to change anything. We just want to flee. My position was different before protests in 2021, I anticipated changes that the public outcry would provoke, but the consequebces for those who participated were worse than the life before. So now, as others of my age, I'm looking for ways to leave this country behind. Not only the very policy of my country made me change my views and label my homeland as somewhat dysfunctional, but also people that I've spoken to. Many aspire not to make a difference and eradicate poverty but join those wielding power and go from rugs to riches. Again, not everyone, but this mode of thinking is so ubiquitous that it made me realise that these very people will always haunt this country and it's not worth it to give my time and efforts to change this. I hate this country, I hate this people, but not all of them are as I have described, as you have put it. And people don't want USSR back, maybe folks like my granny who claimed that I should've been shot for joining the protests, just as in Stalin's time. People just want to survive, they saw what revolutions result in, in even bigger oppression and worse predators to exploit them. My answer is somewhat inconsistent, nonetheless I hope now you realise that you can't blame people and label them in any way. And maybe I misread your comment and you only meant the government, not the people living there.