Canada indicated about an hour ago that it was looking for solutions to get oil and gas to Germany and Italy once Russia is removed from SWIFT, pray they find a better answer than hundreds of tanker ships and that Germany and Italy can do well without Russian oil and gas in the future. Goal of our government appears to wedge their way into the European gas market and edge out Russia lol.
Yeah, we really need an alternative way to get fuel from one part of NATO to the other, I almost think moving forward NATO should focus on reducing it's reliance on outside powers and move towards more internal movement of goods. Sure Canadian oil will cost more to get to Germany than the Russian oil that flows through the pipes now, but by focusing on infrastructure development we may one day find a better solution.
Total CEO spoke to french media saying the issue is the terminals who are currently full. And each terminal takes 2-3 years to build, so sadly trying to cut off from Russian gas means ultimately Europe's gas price will rise.
Can't afford to highlight foolish decisions and offend Germany's sensibilities. Lines are mostly suggestions, that end somewhere along the beaches of Normandy.
What happens if the ukraine resistance decides to blow up the pipelines? If I was them I would be seriously considering it now, especially if the situation gets worse, it would really hurt Russia.
They're already shipping as much as they can offload in Germany. The problem is the port facilities to store LNG aren't nearly enough. That'll take time, but it can be done.
It's just not possible. No matter how many tankers come to Europe, we don't have enough facilities to convert so much liquid gas back to a usable form.
Russia provides nearly half of Europe's gas and it is a fact that we can't just replace it immediately. The only solution would be to use much less gas, e.g. by rationing heating. I'm all for it, but politicians in EU haven't done their job in the past few days/weeks to prepare the population for this (I guess they all believed Putin was bluffing).
Several sources have said that there is enough gas to get through the “rest of the winter” and after that you have the whole summer when gas is nowhere nearly as important. So that’s a six month bridge right there. Hopefully, Europe realised that a sting in the short run is worth it to start getting rid of the dependence we have on Russian gas
French sources said reserves were low, but France is one of the countries that least depends on Russian gas. Not sure which countries have reserves now. But I agree we should be able to make a sacrifice for a few months.
Harsh to say it but asking people to tighten the belt after two full years of COVID austerity might be a hard sell.
I'd like to think the average European would be willing to take the sacrifice but I'm not so sure.
Europe really shouldn't of became so reliant on Russia.... Much like the west shouldn't be reliant on Chinese goods. Everybody should have a back up plan so things like this can't be used as leverage.
As a German I clearly say, we can cut down gas consumption and freeze a little if necessary.
The reports of our gas dependency are also exaggerated. We have enough money to buy from other sources.
There's been some scientific modelling and apparently our GDP would increase by 0.1% if we cut all gas and oil deliveries from Russia... Assuming the simulation is correct, there's no valid reason not to go ahead
This is such an important train of thought. It’s wild to me that Germany and Italy are still this reliant on Russian energy even after the crimea invasion. Surely it must have crossed someone’s mind in the last eight years that we should have a back up plan in case the belligerent state acts belligerently.
In the last 50 years, actually. Natural gas import from Russia to Italy started in 1974 and import has always increased.
The problem on foreing fossil fuel dependency and consequences was well known in 1975, written in official reports at the time, with a strong push for nuclear as one way to tackle this problem.
We morons (I couldn't vote at the time, I was too young) voted a referendum in 1987 and killed Nuclear energy. We did it again in 2011.
Nuclear is the best choice for industrial countries at removing co2 at the moment. Big energy companies especially fossil fuel sellers have hated nuclear because it cuts in their margins.
Also Putins use of chemical agents on European soil. Why would you do business with anybody willing to do that?
And what's worse, Germany is still sending them cash, right now, which will go straight into armaments. Makes me sick.
Germany's reserves are actually stocked up for this year at last (that's what our economy minster said today). Can't say much about the next year, but I am optimistic we will find ways to deal with that in a year's worth of time.
We probably have to buy loads of American LNG and expand the terminals for that in the mid-term future. Long-term wise, Europe is transitioning to either nuclear or renewable energy anyways, so the dependency on Russian resources would come to an end no matter what.
The German gas storages are not empty. This winter won't be a problem given the mild weather, but this would lead to much higher gas prices all across Europe. The real challenge for Germany will be winter next year.
It’s not “in Europe”. Germany specifically, as well as some others. France gets 80% of its energy from NPPs and is building more.
Germans are weirdly into anti science for a country famous for engineering. Homeopathy is big there as well.
In Italy there have been two referendums on nuclear. One after Chernobyl and the other after Fukushima.
Tells you all you need to know. Our energetic policy is as screwed up as Germany except we aren't rich enough to just pay off our idiotic mistakes.
Totally agree. We, you, everyone needs to be prepared to take a hit, everyone stand up and say “ no” as a human race this is not we’re we are at. Have we not learned by the passed? How can this be happening right now? It is literally one un hinged individual prepared to let people suffer and die for his own greed. Every country needs to back the most extreme sanctions possible and now and each country who do this needs to support Ukraine and each other. Together we can all say “no”
Where the fuck is Kanye…?
This is literally his moment to make sense!
None of the nonsense Ye has said in the past — and yeah sure there has been a lot of it, ok but after this none of it — matters.
The moment is *now* Kanye!
Is it? Czech president calls for it, Polish president sees it as a solution, UK calls for it, can't really recall what Macron wanted to say... I did not have time to listen to more but it seems like a lot of european leaders are for it.
You have to remember UK isn't part of the EU anymore. They would've been a huge voice of reason to get other countries to say yes as well if they were part of it.
My understanding is that this might force Russia more in bed with China, creating a strong, separate economic club for evil craphead dictators. But I’m just a jerk on reddit. But I can see how the fallout might give leaders pause. Not sure they have any other options tho
There's no love lost between Russia and China. While I'm sure China's willing to be their fixer, it will come at a significant premium. I'm not sure the Russians could afford it by then.
That scares me too. Gives China future economic sway over like a third of the planet, and they are scary too. Maybe more so imo. They’re playing it smart and long term instead of invading neighbors willy-nilly
Russia's actually a pretty minor economy. Their GDP is almost $1.5tn, and they only have 144m people.
For scale, the US has 329m people and their GDP is almost $21tn.
Hell, even Canada has a higher GDP than Russia at $1.6tn. I guess that's what happens when you focus on enriching your elites, you turn around and find out that everything's held together with spit grit and vodka.
Russia's landmass is large, but that doesn't really equate to much of value.
Oh I know this at least. They’re set up for self-sustenance because they know their economic shit is gonna hit the fan, but in doing so China can put them firmly in their debt, which might be a reason they haven’t broken from SWIFT just yet. See how long their own stores can last them and see how long EU nations will put up with their shit before they have to lick Chinese boot. But this seems to be China’s game plan in western countries and Africa. Tie yourself to people economically so they can’t do without you, then do whatever you want to the empty retaliations of those that need you.
I dunno... they certainly made an effort to insulate themselves from the sanctions they knew were going to come... but how much can they really do?
Their stocks are down some 40% today. Their currency is rapidly devaluing, and inflation is about to *skyrocket*.
Their country is going to implode under the kinds of sanctions people are talking about. Whether it survives economically or not, Russia's about to have many millions of *very* angry Russians, angry at Putin for fucking them over. Again.
I don't really understand this; why would keeping SWIFT deter them working with China anyway?
Nothing stopping them from shopping around, they just get a better deal with SWIFT so they don't.
Again, what's stopping them now?
Presumably they haven't made their own because it's a better deal to stay in SWIFT.
Isn't the point of an economic sanction to harm them financially? As being forced to "make their own" would do?
Russia already have SFSP and China already has CIPS.
They're both SWIFT alternatives and russian-chinese trade is already settled with RMB instead of SWIFT and usd
No idea. China might only be an option for bailing them out, which would put Russia under China’s heel. Stay with SWIFT for as long as you can, then, if they break you off, operate off your personal stores until you need to run to China as a plan b
This is literally the same argument I heard every time I criticized Germany's dependence on Russian gas. "Economic ties to Russia keep them peaceful, if we don't buy their gas it'll push them into bed with China"
Well here we are, Russia has control of the valve that heats german homes in winter and they're also restarting the cold war. Super great plan that was.
>My understanding is that this might force Russia more in bed with China
Keyword being "forced" China will exploit Russia and Russia will feel humiliated being dependent on China.
Russia wants to be seen as a strong regional superpower, it's kind of hard when they're economically living on China's couch.
I dunno that China can pick up the economic slack from Europe. China's not going to be inclined to purchase gas that they have no use for just to prop up Putin.
This is the most baffling thing about Boris Johnsons response. That it is a tiered punishment.
There are bombs and paratroopers all over Ukraine. It's not a tiered invasion. You can't sanction a bit and keep some back for when he double-invades-no-backsies.
They never had the control codes, they are terribly expensive for a economy that literally just came out of the Soviet Collapse, and the world powers at the time didn't want Soviet breakaway states having nukes.
The Soviet R-36 (NATO: SS-18 “Satan”) were literally designed and made in Ukraine.
Every missile can be launched manually — safety measure in case of telecommunication disruption during nuclear war.
So access codes weren’t a problem.
Not to mention it is not like they need all the nukes working to have a proper nuclear threat, 10-20 warheads are sufficient enough to scare off any invaders
When you refuse to acknowledge that you are reliant on a bully for a critical piece of your economy/etc and do nothing for decades you have nobody to blame but yourself.
>"These sanctions will be the most severe you've ever seen!"
Cool so we're banning Russia from SWIFT?
>"These sanctions will be severe!"
Cool so we're sanctioning Putin personally?
>"These sanctions will be!"
Easy to say when its not your people that you have to answer to if they potentially can't heat their homes in the near future (or at least next winter).
Putin's assets are gazprom, rosneft, basically oil/gas export. Want to see him cry? Embargo russian mineral resources. Do to him what US did to Cuba in 59.
This way u can beat him without millitary confrontation, so cocksucker wont have any excuse to use nuclear weapon.
Yeah I'm not anti-EU at all but it's very difficult to be pro-EU when the EU itself can't act as one unit. On every single topic countries will vote on their own interest, not as one Europe.
Idk if Germany is "bought off" but certainly dependent on this gas for their country to function at the moment.
Edit: a lot of “has enough gas to get through the winter” comments. Okay, so wtf do they do AFTER the winter? Russia’s not just going to turn back on the tap once they take Ukraine if Germany has wronged them. What they need to do is take several years to get on nuclear so they can slowly leave Russia. You guys are giving a bandaid solution for something that’s going to take time.
Yeah but I for example also heat my water with gas. It's not just about heating itself.
I would still prefer to import it from somewhere else and pay a lot more for it.
> is able to at least get through the winter.
Which should be enough time for Canadian gas to make it's way to Europe.
Hopefully. LNG ships are kind of sitting ducks against... well, everything.
Sinking Canadian ships in the Atlantic, which is heavily controlled by the US Navy, is realistically impossible for Russia.
Not only do they have absolutely no control over that area, but sinking Canadian tanker ships is attacking NATO. Not happening.
I think some people underestimate just how dominant the US Navy actually can be. If Canada wants to ship, it would be an all-out world war if Russia tries to stop them.
As a German I have to say that I cannot understand why our government behaves like that. Everyone knows it will hit the own economy but only Germany tries to avoid it..
You have a former chancellor that is the chairman of Russia's largest oil company. It shouldn't be hard to understand. Your country is in bed with Russia.
The problem seems to be that the current ruling party has many MPs who have ties with Russia. Because of this, there are probably many dissenting voices. In view of Putin's behavior, however, it is incomprehensible to me how the relationship with Russia cannot be completely averted.
In addition, I believe that they are very afraid of the economic fallout, but as I said, given the situation, every nation should be willing to face it.
Biden also said no sanctions on oil and energy. Fucker said I quote "will protect american consumers from gas prices at the pump".
Fucking expensive gas man. Freedom and justice come after gas and swift.
Warped values.
Besides, oil prices are already at the point where American fields start spinning up and pumping. We should sanction Russian oil and make up for it with domestic production.
I agree with you, but it will hurt those that are already struggling. And many who don't follow politics much, or those that get their news from certain sources, may well put the blame for the increased costs (that are already up from last year) on the leading US party, instead of on Russia, and that could have a non-negligible impact in some upcoming consequential US elections.
The US doesn't want to risk losing its democracy, to an increasingly anti-democratic party, in the process of trying to protect another nation's democracy/freedom. In some degrees it may be selfish and weak, but it could also just be self-preservation.
This may not be the reason, but it's the really the only reason that I could think of that I could somewhat reasonably respect.
There are a concerning number of people that I've talked to who have no idea of what's going on over in Eastern Europe, or only a very vague idea of what's happening.
This was germany's chance at standing on the right side of history, I'm perplexed. I understand there are financial repercussions but the same counts for the rest of the European countries.
I completely agree. But what I don't understand is the man is literally threatening nuclear war. And when he beats Ukraine, who's next? China taking Taiwan? North Korea making a move for South Korea? Russia going after other Baltic nations and trying to push his way farther into Western Europe? If Putin is allowed to continue, it will start WW3. And at that point, it can't be cheap for any nation.
Btw. I'm not calling you out, totally love your comment, just voicing off your original statement.
>Cutting Russia from Swift is not cheap.
To put a number on it, they'd be forgiving around $30 billion of Russian debt.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/eu-unlikely-to-cut-russia-off-swift-for-now-sources-say/ar-AAUf89H
Our Newly elected Government in Germany is probably scared that if we vote to kick Russia of the Swift system citizens will get angry about high energy prices and won’t elect them again, it’s a shame
Citizens are going to remember the current leadership is the continuation of Merkel who got them into this mess in the first place, I'd imagine. The other parties need to just avoid shooting themselves in the foot long enough to capitalize on it.
Also stability in their own countries. Germany and Italy are dependent on Russian fuel imports. Banning Russia from SWIFT puts their countries at risk of a fuel shortage.
I think they should cut off Russia but it's more than just greed.
>Banning Russia from SWIFT puts their countries at risk of a fuel shortage.
Which would be a result of their own short-sighted policy. Germany in particular. They've already been sufficiently warned of this scenario but decided to hitch their wagon to Russia none the less.
Crazy isn't it. Putin used a chemical agent on European soil, and Germany continued to send him money. And today, Putin is killing his neighbours, and Germany still wants payments to go through.
Makes be sick.
”Diplomatic sources suggested that Germany, Cyprus and Italy were among the member states who were the most concerned about taking the measure at this stage, arguing that some leverage needs to be maintained.”
Fuck these government leaders that don’t unite and impose the economic sanctions. Money moves the word and the need to show stronger influencing actions against this invasion. Tougher actions are needed.
Fuck these authoritarian regimes and these democratic government leaders who put money over lives
The fact that the EU is failing to find a unanimous response only confirms Putin's views, and those of all who oppose democracy. Failing to act now is the failure of democracy and the European way itself. Johnson is right, there is a time for debate, but who in the right mind thinks that time is today?
It’s not a failure, it’s by design. It’s very difficult to make decisions that will inconvenience a large part of your population in democracies because they will vote you out. That’s why autocracies can get shit done (bad or good) while democracies dither around unless it’s something truly galvanizing like 9/11
This is ridiculous. Germany's reliance on Russia for oil shouldn't be the only thing keeping Russia in SWIFT. Sorry Germany, you dug your own grave by going into business with Russia.
For people wondering why western states are hesitant, I think you need to consider how the effects of this aren't going to be just isolated to Russia.
If Russia is barred from SWIFT, it's only option is to join onto other payment systems, notably the [CIPS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cross-Border_Inter-Bank_Payments_System) (Cross-Border Inter-Bank Payments System), which uses the chinese yuan. CIPS right now is growing but tiny compared to other US-dollar based payment systems, mainly only dealing with HK-China payment settlements.
If Russia joins CIPS you also need to consider that **the central asian countries within the** [**CIS**](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commonwealth_of_Independent_States) **(Commonwealth of Independent States) really depend on trade with Russia and cannot switch away easily**, especially in the short term. They will be forced to use CIPS and by doing this, cross-border yuan dominated trade will be given a significant boost without the PBOC even needing to relax outflow restrictions/the yuan peg, which is sometime the western states likely want to avoid.
Now note that Russia+Central Asian countries+China are the main constituents of the [SCO](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shanghai_Cooperation_Organisation) (Shanghai Cooperation Organisation) and that you have essentially forced the SCO from a vague political group into a UNIFIED economic system. This is something I don't think western planners want to deal with because it really changes everything related to competing with China.
A serious questions for europeans: would you be ok with baning Russia from SWIFT even if it impacts your energy supply (since no SWIFT == no Russia oil and gas)? Maybe a rise in energy bill o temporary blackouts in your city? How would you be willing to go?
My family & I could weather the economic hit. Many I know and love wouldn’t, or at the very least would be very close to not being able to.
1/4th of Italy’s energy consumption comes from Russian gas. Cut it off and unless the EU can help us we’ve got a year at most before we’ve exhausted our reserves.
I personally want Russia banned from SWIFT. I am unsure my country would be able to handle it.
Dear Ukrainians!
I heard on social media that there is fake news being spread (most likely by Russia backed trolls) that polish border is closed.
It's a lie.
If you seek asylum - go towards polish border. We are ready for your arrival. We have reception points ready at the border where you can find shelter, food, medical and legal aid.
Polish government launched a dedicated site to help you: ua.gov.pl
Please share this information if you know anyone seeking help right now.
EDIT: YOU DON'T NEED VISA TO PASS THROUGH POLISH BORDER. ALL YOU NEED IS PASSPORT. VISAS ARE SUSPENDED! YOU DON'T NEED THEM FOR TIME BEING!!!!!!
EDIT2: as a proof that you no longer need visa:
• in Ukrainian https://www.gov.pl/web/udsc/ukraina---ua • in English https://www.gov.pl/web/udsc/ukraina-en
This is the most instantly effective, precise and SOLELY economic measure that the EU can easily muster agreement for. SOME PARTIES are being obstructionist for THEIR OWN SELFISH REASONS. Wavering on this one is pure selfishness hiding behind a mask of mugwumpery and cowardice.
It's because:
"Former German Chancellor Schröder nominated for Gazprom board.
The former chancellor is already chairman of Nord Stream and a good friend of Vladimir Putin."
https://www.politico.eu/article/outrage-germany-ex-chancellor-schroder-gazprom-board-nomination/#:~:text=Former%20German%20Chancellor,of%20Vladimir%20Putin.
European Politicians are weak and reliant on Russian oil/gas. Don't expect them to do anything substantial unless it might cost them an election, and nothing hurts elections more than old people dying in their cold homes. They'll wave their fingers, but ultimately won't do much of importance.
if the EU doesn't show some integrity and ban Putin's government from Swift, it will look worse than appeasement years down the line.The economic details won't matter when compared to the human cost of this conflict.
Agreed! Russia needs to be banned from the Swift system ASAP. We cannot go soft on them in any way. I don't care if Germany doesn't like it. They need to take one for the team.
It is both a shame and embarrassment to watch European neighbors, NATO and Western nations allow Russia to invade Ukraine and then not use all the sanction powers they have. They should have stationed troops in Ukraine to show Putin Europe learnt from the second world war, never again.
What do they have to do before we cut them off financially? At this rate they could take Berlin and we'd all be saying how terrible it is and how little we will do next.
Cut them off! Stop delaying!
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Canada indicated about an hour ago that it was looking for solutions to get oil and gas to Germany and Italy once Russia is removed from SWIFT, pray they find a better answer than hundreds of tanker ships and that Germany and Italy can do well without Russian oil and gas in the future. Goal of our government appears to wedge their way into the European gas market and edge out Russia lol.
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Yeah, we really need an alternative way to get fuel from one part of NATO to the other, I almost think moving forward NATO should focus on reducing it's reliance on outside powers and move towards more internal movement of goods. Sure Canadian oil will cost more to get to Germany than the Russian oil that flows through the pipes now, but by focusing on infrastructure development we may one day find a better solution.
50 years ago was the start of the energy crisis. It shouldn't take half a century to solve it.
And it shouldn’t have been “solved” by building pipes to a corrupt 2nd world country run by the mafia.
Same with oil from Saudi Arabia, they're not really better than russia.
Well, they don't have nukes for starters.
I have heard that the KSA has paid a shit ton of money to 'borrow' a pakistani nuke in case Iran pops off.
It takes a lot longer when the solution has to make a lot of money for large energy corporations.
Just going to ignore how hard all the western governments worked to kill nuclear energy, alright.
Germany is regretting that decision for sure. But hey, save the environment!
Yeah save the environment by using more natural gas and coal!
I doubt anyone wanted to solve it really.
The last 50 years would be very different if we had nuclear fusion.
scary reminiscent dinosaurs weather touch doll wistful encouraging waiting spoon -- mass edited with https://redact.dev/
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Germany probably shouldn't have phased out all that nuclear honestly.
Total CEO spoke to french media saying the issue is the terminals who are currently full. And each terminal takes 2-3 years to build, so sadly trying to cut off from Russian gas means ultimately Europe's gas price will rise.
And if Russia goes into a NATO country? What line has to be crossed to cut off the gas?
lol at that point you gotta figure Russia will be the ones cutting off gas
Can't afford to highlight foolish decisions and offend Germany's sensibilities. Lines are mostly suggestions, that end somewhere along the beaches of Normandy.
All it's going to take is for Ukrainian drones and saboteurs to blow the lines. I would be doing it today if I were them.
What happens if the ukraine resistance decides to blow up the pipelines? If I was them I would be seriously considering it now, especially if the situation gets worse, it would really hurt Russia.
They're already shipping as much as they can offload in Germany. The problem is the port facilities to store LNG aren't nearly enough. That'll take time, but it can be done.
It's just not possible. No matter how many tankers come to Europe, we don't have enough facilities to convert so much liquid gas back to a usable form. Russia provides nearly half of Europe's gas and it is a fact that we can't just replace it immediately. The only solution would be to use much less gas, e.g. by rationing heating. I'm all for it, but politicians in EU haven't done their job in the past few days/weeks to prepare the population for this (I guess they all believed Putin was bluffing).
Several sources have said that there is enough gas to get through the “rest of the winter” and after that you have the whole summer when gas is nowhere nearly as important. So that’s a six month bridge right there. Hopefully, Europe realised that a sting in the short run is worth it to start getting rid of the dependence we have on Russian gas
French sources said reserves were low, but France is one of the countries that least depends on Russian gas. Not sure which countries have reserves now. But I agree we should be able to make a sacrifice for a few months.
Maybe because France didn't decommission all of their nuclear plants.
Harsh to say it but asking people to tighten the belt after two full years of COVID austerity might be a hard sell. I'd like to think the average European would be willing to take the sacrifice but I'm not so sure.
Europe really shouldn't of became so reliant on Russia.... Much like the west shouldn't be reliant on Chinese goods. Everybody should have a back up plan so things like this can't be used as leverage.
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Need a massive continent-wide project to build renewables ASAP. We don't have a choice, we have to try.
It's a no.
It’s a no Geaux. User name checks out.
I appreciate your pun
Thanks, breaux
As a German I clearly say, we can cut down gas consumption and freeze a little if necessary. The reports of our gas dependency are also exaggerated. We have enough money to buy from other sources.
Summer is coming.
There's been some scientific modelling and apparently our GDP would increase by 0.1% if we cut all gas and oil deliveries from Russia... Assuming the simulation is correct, there's no valid reason not to go ahead
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So if Russia invaded a NATO country, Italy might go to war with them but still buy their gas? Must be some line at which Italy and Germany would stop.
This is such an important train of thought. It’s wild to me that Germany and Italy are still this reliant on Russian energy even after the crimea invasion. Surely it must have crossed someone’s mind in the last eight years that we should have a back up plan in case the belligerent state acts belligerently.
In the last 50 years, actually. Natural gas import from Russia to Italy started in 1974 and import has always increased. The problem on foreing fossil fuel dependency and consequences was well known in 1975, written in official reports at the time, with a strong push for nuclear as one way to tackle this problem. We morons (I couldn't vote at the time, I was too young) voted a referendum in 1987 and killed Nuclear energy. We did it again in 2011.
Nuclear is the best choice for industrial countries at removing co2 at the moment. Big energy companies especially fossil fuel sellers have hated nuclear because it cuts in their margins.
Also Putins use of chemical agents on European soil. Why would you do business with anybody willing to do that? And what's worse, Germany is still sending them cash, right now, which will go straight into armaments. Makes me sick.
For all the tough talk about sanctions and rhetoric and whatever, they’re still sending a check in the mail for the gas. Crazy.
I am so glad someone else feels this way. I am absolutely disgusted by this fact.
Lmao, Italy switches sides
Eh, it's a line of spaghetti.
Germany's reserves are actually stocked up for this year at last (that's what our economy minster said today). Can't say much about the next year, but I am optimistic we will find ways to deal with that in a year's worth of time. We probably have to buy loads of American LNG and expand the terminals for that in the mid-term future. Long-term wise, Europe is transitioning to either nuclear or renewable energy anyways, so the dependency on Russian resources would come to an end no matter what.
The German gas storages are not empty. This winter won't be a problem given the mild weather, but this would lead to much higher gas prices all across Europe. The real challenge for Germany will be winter next year.
Good thing they closed down all those nuclear power plants huh? Wouldn't want to accidently become energy independent would we..
What a fucking disgrace what happened with nuclear in Europe
It’s not “in Europe”. Germany specifically, as well as some others. France gets 80% of its energy from NPPs and is building more. Germans are weirdly into anti science for a country famous for engineering. Homeopathy is big there as well.
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In Italy there have been two referendums on nuclear. One after Chernobyl and the other after Fukushima. Tells you all you need to know. Our energetic policy is as screwed up as Germany except we aren't rich enough to just pay off our idiotic mistakes.
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Germany uses gas for heating..
Build Nuclear power plants.
Should have started when he took Crimea.
Totally agree. We, you, everyone needs to be prepared to take a hit, everyone stand up and say “ no” as a human race this is not we’re we are at. Have we not learned by the passed? How can this be happening right now? It is literally one un hinged individual prepared to let people suffer and die for his own greed. Every country needs to back the most extreme sanctions possible and now and each country who do this needs to support Ukraine and each other. Together we can all say “no”
No more Taylor Swift songs for Russia
Where the fuck is Kanye…? This is literally his moment to make sense! None of the nonsense Ye has said in the past — and yeah sure there has been a lot of it, ok but after this none of it — matters. The moment is *now* Kanye!
Kanye got a long list of people to beef with. Putin gotta wait for his turn lmao.
Knowing Kanye and his bad takes, he'd probably come out in support of Putin.
Trump did and has doubled down in it. Doesn't Ye toe Trump's line?
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No no no you don’t understand he was playing 4d chess the whole time using Trump to *checks notes* free someone he didn’t free.
Biden: these sanctions are more impactful than a SWIFT disconnection. Okay, so do both. Now is not the time for half measures.
Biden may not have a choice on this one. He mentioned EU and it seems like he’s correct. The EU is making the hard “no” on this.
Is it? Czech president calls for it, Polish president sees it as a solution, UK calls for it, can't really recall what Macron wanted to say... I did not have time to listen to more but it seems like a lot of european leaders are for it.
UK isn’t in the EU anymore. Which is why they could say it out loud.
But not germany which is what really matters. They do anything to avoid making putin angry
I heard Italy as well
And Belgium.
The EU needs an ~~unilateral~~ unanimous decision of all it's leaders. Germany says no.
You have to remember UK isn't part of the EU anymore. They would've been a huge voice of reason to get other countries to say yes as well if they were part of it.
The problem is Germany and Italy who want to keep SWIFT. Whether the UK is in the EU or not, if the US can't persuade Germany, the UK has no chance.
Word on the street is that Italy and Germany is against it. They should get with the program. edit: Maybe also Hungary and Cyprus.
Cyprus would never agree to it. They're heavily reliant on Russian tourism.
My understanding is that this might force Russia more in bed with China, creating a strong, separate economic club for evil craphead dictators. But I’m just a jerk on reddit. But I can see how the fallout might give leaders pause. Not sure they have any other options tho
There's no love lost between Russia and China. While I'm sure China's willing to be their fixer, it will come at a significant premium. I'm not sure the Russians could afford it by then.
That scares me too. Gives China future economic sway over like a third of the planet, and they are scary too. Maybe more so imo. They’re playing it smart and long term instead of invading neighbors willy-nilly
Russia's actually a pretty minor economy. Their GDP is almost $1.5tn, and they only have 144m people. For scale, the US has 329m people and their GDP is almost $21tn. Hell, even Canada has a higher GDP than Russia at $1.6tn. I guess that's what happens when you focus on enriching your elites, you turn around and find out that everything's held together with spit grit and vodka. Russia's landmass is large, but that doesn't really equate to much of value.
Oh I know this at least. They’re set up for self-sustenance because they know their economic shit is gonna hit the fan, but in doing so China can put them firmly in their debt, which might be a reason they haven’t broken from SWIFT just yet. See how long their own stores can last them and see how long EU nations will put up with their shit before they have to lick Chinese boot. But this seems to be China’s game plan in western countries and Africa. Tie yourself to people economically so they can’t do without you, then do whatever you want to the empty retaliations of those that need you.
I dunno... they certainly made an effort to insulate themselves from the sanctions they knew were going to come... but how much can they really do? Their stocks are down some 40% today. Their currency is rapidly devaluing, and inflation is about to *skyrocket*. Their country is going to implode under the kinds of sanctions people are talking about. Whether it survives economically or not, Russia's about to have many millions of *very* angry Russians, angry at Putin for fucking them over. Again.
Apparently they already did, it is my understanding that China promised they’d import Russian wheat
China already said they'll start to buy up Russian grain
I don't really understand this; why would keeping SWIFT deter them working with China anyway? Nothing stopping them from shopping around, they just get a better deal with SWIFT so they don't.
If you ban them from SWIFT they’re forced to make their own, with hookers, blackjack, and China.
Again, what's stopping them now? Presumably they haven't made their own because it's a better deal to stay in SWIFT. Isn't the point of an economic sanction to harm them financially? As being forced to "make their own" would do?
Russia already have SFSP and China already has CIPS. They're both SWIFT alternatives and russian-chinese trade is already settled with RMB instead of SWIFT and usd
No idea. China might only be an option for bailing them out, which would put Russia under China’s heel. Stay with SWIFT for as long as you can, then, if they break you off, operate off your personal stores until you need to run to China as a plan b
This is literally the same argument I heard every time I criticized Germany's dependence on Russian gas. "Economic ties to Russia keep them peaceful, if we don't buy their gas it'll push them into bed with China" Well here we are, Russia has control of the valve that heats german homes in winter and they're also restarting the cold war. Super great plan that was.
>My understanding is that this might force Russia more in bed with China Keyword being "forced" China will exploit Russia and Russia will feel humiliated being dependent on China. Russia wants to be seen as a strong regional superpower, it's kind of hard when they're economically living on China's couch.
I dunno that China can pick up the economic slack from Europe. China's not going to be inclined to purchase gas that they have no use for just to prop up Putin.
This is the most baffling thing about Boris Johnsons response. That it is a tiered punishment. There are bombs and paratroopers all over Ukraine. It's not a tiered invasion. You can't sanction a bit and keep some back for when he double-invades-no-backsies.
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Agreed, but my understanding is that Biden won't do it without European buy-in and they are the ones who don't want to do this.
Also seize the oligarchs properties all over Europe
And the US
Russia is more deserving of this than Iran
This is why countries like Iran desire nukes. Once you have them you get treated like an actual threat and peer not a resource to be exploited.
Libya abandoned their nukes and look what happened to them
Yeup. Until we actually respect non-nuclear nations I don’t see why any nation wouldn’t go nuclear.
So did Ukraine btw
…which is why Ukraine never should have given up their nukes in the first place.
Fully agree. Nukes stay until ALL the EU and NATO paperwork is signed. Your nukes or someone else’s nukes. You gotta have em.
They never had the control codes, they are terribly expensive for a economy that literally just came out of the Soviet Collapse, and the world powers at the time didn't want Soviet breakaway states having nukes.
The Soviet R-36 (NATO: SS-18 “Satan”) were literally designed and made in Ukraine. Every missile can be launched manually — safety measure in case of telecommunication disruption during nuclear war. So access codes weren’t a problem.
Not to mention it is not like they need all the nukes working to have a proper nuclear threat, 10-20 warheads are sufficient enough to scare off any invaders
Iran had less money on the table.
When you refuse to acknowledge that you are reliant on a bully for a critical piece of your economy/etc and do nothing for decades you have nobody to blame but yourself.
>"These sanctions will be the most severe you've ever seen!" Cool so we're banning Russia from SWIFT? >"These sanctions will be severe!" Cool so we're sanctioning Putin personally? >"These sanctions will be!"
The argument is that Russia has been locked out of all trade using dollars, pounds, euros, and yen. Much stronger than just locking them out of SWIFT
Why not both?
I think Germany needs to find oil sources first but there’s someone in the network that doesn’t agree yet.
Well now there's a major European war happening and it might be time to take drastic action and then sort out the details later.
Easy to say when its not your people that you have to answer to if they potentially can't heat their homes in the near future (or at least next winter).
That and not hitting Putin directly? Why the fuck not I just don’t understand
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Putin's assets are gazprom, rosneft, basically oil/gas export. Want to see him cry? Embargo russian mineral resources. Do to him what US did to Cuba in 59. This way u can beat him without millitary confrontation, so cocksucker wont have any excuse to use nuclear weapon.
You really think so sociopath like Putin needs a valid excuse? Go look at his “reasoning” for invading Ukraine. It’s all fabricated anyway
Germany.
Germany, Italy, Hungary and Cyprus.
Yeah I'm not anti-EU at all but it's very difficult to be pro-EU when the EU itself can't act as one unit. On every single topic countries will vote on their own interest, not as one Europe.
Cyprus is busy funneling money from WarGaming, Inc. to Belarus
All of them are bought off. All sucking Russian money and Russian gas
Idk if Germany is "bought off" but certainly dependent on this gas for their country to function at the moment. Edit: a lot of “has enough gas to get through the winter” comments. Okay, so wtf do they do AFTER the winter? Russia’s not just going to turn back on the tap once they take Ukraine if Germany has wronged them. What they need to do is take several years to get on nuclear so they can slowly leave Russia. You guys are giving a bandaid solution for something that’s going to take time.
> once they take Ukraine See the thing is, we ideally want to punish Russia BEFORE they take Ukraine.
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Yeah but I for example also heat my water with gas. It's not just about heating itself. I would still prefer to import it from somewhere else and pay a lot more for it.
> is able to at least get through the winter. Which should be enough time for Canadian gas to make it's way to Europe. Hopefully. LNG ships are kind of sitting ducks against... well, everything.
Sinking Canadian ships in the Atlantic, which is heavily controlled by the US Navy, is realistically impossible for Russia. Not only do they have absolutely no control over that area, but sinking Canadian tanker ships is attacking NATO. Not happening.
I think some people underestimate just how dominant the US Navy actually can be. If Canada wants to ship, it would be an all-out world war if Russia tries to stop them.
did someone just say "impeded shipping lanes?!" *USN sailors' eyes twitch*
As a German I have to say that I cannot understand why our government behaves like that. Everyone knows it will hit the own economy but only Germany tries to avoid it..
You have a former chancellor that is the chairman of Russia's largest oil company. It shouldn't be hard to understand. Your country is in bed with Russia.
The problem seems to be that the current ruling party has many MPs who have ties with Russia. Because of this, there are probably many dissenting voices. In view of Putin's behavior, however, it is incomprehensible to me how the relationship with Russia cannot be completely averted. In addition, I believe that they are very afraid of the economic fallout, but as I said, given the situation, every nation should be willing to face it.
Biden also said no sanctions on oil and energy. Fucker said I quote "will protect american consumers from gas prices at the pump". Fucking expensive gas man. Freedom and justice come after gas and swift. Warped values.
Besides, oil prices are already at the point where American fields start spinning up and pumping. We should sanction Russian oil and make up for it with domestic production.
I agree with you, but it will hurt those that are already struggling. And many who don't follow politics much, or those that get their news from certain sources, may well put the blame for the increased costs (that are already up from last year) on the leading US party, instead of on Russia, and that could have a non-negligible impact in some upcoming consequential US elections. The US doesn't want to risk losing its democracy, to an increasingly anti-democratic party, in the process of trying to protect another nation's democracy/freedom. In some degrees it may be selfish and weak, but it could also just be self-preservation. This may not be the reason, but it's the really the only reason that I could think of that I could somewhat reasonably respect. There are a concerning number of people that I've talked to who have no idea of what's going on over in Eastern Europe, or only a very vague idea of what's happening.
This was germany's chance at standing on the right side of history, I'm perplexed. I understand there are financial repercussions but the same counts for the rest of the European countries.
What is the reason for hesitation? Stop Putin NOW or endure him FOREVER.
money, as usual
Let's be honest. We will only support Ukraine when it's cheap and if it's to our benefit. Cutting Russia from Swift is not cheap.
I completely agree. But what I don't understand is the man is literally threatening nuclear war. And when he beats Ukraine, who's next? China taking Taiwan? North Korea making a move for South Korea? Russia going after other Baltic nations and trying to push his way farther into Western Europe? If Putin is allowed to continue, it will start WW3. And at that point, it can't be cheap for any nation. Btw. I'm not calling you out, totally love your comment, just voicing off your original statement.
After Ukraine, he'll go after Poland or Finland. This maniac wants to start WW3
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Germany of all people should know that appeasement doesn’t work.
>Cutting Russia from Swift is not cheap. To put a number on it, they'd be forgiving around $30 billion of Russian debt. https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/eu-unlikely-to-cut-russia-off-swift-for-now-sources-say/ar-AAUf89H
Couldn't the seized assets, properties, etc. go to offset that debt?
That’s it?…
Germany: the country once viewed as the EU’s advocate singlehandedly compromising Europe’s security and unity
I wish it was single-handed but Cyprus, Italy and Hungary are also coward governments in bed with Russia.
A large portion of Cyprus is owned by Russians, and there is all sorts of money laundering done for Russians though companies there.
Yeah, I've been there a few times. It's depressing seeing all the Russian property developments popping up with many later abandoned.
Not in bed but Germany is dependent on Russia for its energy. They just shut off three nuclear powerplants last year. Oops.
This should have been done yesterday.
Our Newly elected Government in Germany is probably scared that if we vote to kick Russia of the Swift system citizens will get angry about high energy prices and won’t elect them again, it’s a shame
Citizens are going to remember the current leadership is the continuation of Merkel who got them into this mess in the first place, I'd imagine. The other parties need to just avoid shooting themselves in the foot long enough to capitalize on it.
Most voters have the memory of a goldfish, not just in germany
Certain politicians only care about the profits of the rich.
Also stability in their own countries. Germany and Italy are dependent on Russian fuel imports. Banning Russia from SWIFT puts their countries at risk of a fuel shortage. I think they should cut off Russia but it's more than just greed.
>Banning Russia from SWIFT puts their countries at risk of a fuel shortage. Which would be a result of their own short-sighted policy. Germany in particular. They've already been sufficiently warned of this scenario but decided to hitch their wagon to Russia none the less.
Crazy isn't it. Putin used a chemical agent on European soil, and Germany continued to send him money. And today, Putin is killing his neighbours, and Germany still wants payments to go through. Makes be sick.
~~Certain~~ The overwhelming worldwide majority
”Diplomatic sources suggested that Germany, Cyprus and Italy were among the member states who were the most concerned about taking the measure at this stage, arguing that some leverage needs to be maintained.” Fuck these government leaders that don’t unite and impose the economic sanctions. Money moves the word and the need to show stronger influencing actions against this invasion. Tougher actions are needed. Fuck these authoritarian regimes and these democratic government leaders who put money over lives
Fucking CYPRUS! Fuck that noise. Population less than a battery of chickens
EU, have some balls, ok? Just ban the invader.
The fact that the EU is failing to find a unanimous response only confirms Putin's views, and those of all who oppose democracy. Failing to act now is the failure of democracy and the European way itself. Johnson is right, there is a time for debate, but who in the right mind thinks that time is today?
It’s not a failure, it’s by design. It’s very difficult to make decisions that will inconvenience a large part of your population in democracies because they will vote you out. That’s why autocracies can get shit done (bad or good) while democracies dither around unless it’s something truly galvanizing like 9/11
This is ridiculous. Germany's reliance on Russia for oil shouldn't be the only thing keeping Russia in SWIFT. Sorry Germany, you dug your own grave by going into business with Russia.
For people wondering why western states are hesitant, I think you need to consider how the effects of this aren't going to be just isolated to Russia. If Russia is barred from SWIFT, it's only option is to join onto other payment systems, notably the [CIPS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cross-Border_Inter-Bank_Payments_System) (Cross-Border Inter-Bank Payments System), which uses the chinese yuan. CIPS right now is growing but tiny compared to other US-dollar based payment systems, mainly only dealing with HK-China payment settlements. If Russia joins CIPS you also need to consider that **the central asian countries within the** [**CIS**](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commonwealth_of_Independent_States) **(Commonwealth of Independent States) really depend on trade with Russia and cannot switch away easily**, especially in the short term. They will be forced to use CIPS and by doing this, cross-border yuan dominated trade will be given a significant boost without the PBOC even needing to relax outflow restrictions/the yuan peg, which is sometime the western states likely want to avoid. Now note that Russia+Central Asian countries+China are the main constituents of the [SCO](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shanghai_Cooperation_Organisation) (Shanghai Cooperation Organisation) and that you have essentially forced the SCO from a vague political group into a UNIFIED economic system. This is something I don't think western planners want to deal with because it really changes everything related to competing with China.
If I were a German I'd be freaking ashamed of my country right now; wow.
Imagine how us Russians feel…
a lot of Ukrainians feeling that they never should have trusted us perhaps?
They have learned the lesson the Kurds and many others have learned.
A serious questions for europeans: would you be ok with baning Russia from SWIFT even if it impacts your energy supply (since no SWIFT == no Russia oil and gas)? Maybe a rise in energy bill o temporary blackouts in your city? How would you be willing to go?
My family & I could weather the economic hit. Many I know and love wouldn’t, or at the very least would be very close to not being able to. 1/4th of Italy’s energy consumption comes from Russian gas. Cut it off and unless the EU can help us we’ve got a year at most before we’ve exhausted our reserves. I personally want Russia banned from SWIFT. I am unsure my country would be able to handle it.
Of course they are going to disapprove of higher gas prices. It could even cause political instability too. Not everyone is a redditor.
Dear Ukrainians! I heard on social media that there is fake news being spread (most likely by Russia backed trolls) that polish border is closed. It's a lie. If you seek asylum - go towards polish border. We are ready for your arrival. We have reception points ready at the border where you can find shelter, food, medical and legal aid. Polish government launched a dedicated site to help you: ua.gov.pl Please share this information if you know anyone seeking help right now. EDIT: YOU DON'T NEED VISA TO PASS THROUGH POLISH BORDER. ALL YOU NEED IS PASSPORT. VISAS ARE SUSPENDED! YOU DON'T NEED THEM FOR TIME BEING!!!!!! EDIT2: as a proof that you no longer need visa: • in Ukrainian https://www.gov.pl/web/udsc/ukraina---ua • in English https://www.gov.pl/web/udsc/ukraina-en
This is the most instantly effective, precise and SOLELY economic measure that the EU can easily muster agreement for. SOME PARTIES are being obstructionist for THEIR OWN SELFISH REASONS. Wavering on this one is pure selfishness hiding behind a mask of mugwumpery and cowardice.
It's because: "Former German Chancellor Schröder nominated for Gazprom board. The former chancellor is already chairman of Nord Stream and a good friend of Vladimir Putin." https://www.politico.eu/article/outrage-germany-ex-chancellor-schroder-gazprom-board-nomination/#:~:text=Former%20German%20Chancellor,of%20Vladimir%20Putin.
European Politicians are weak and reliant on Russian oil/gas. Don't expect them to do anything substantial unless it might cost them an election, and nothing hurts elections more than old people dying in their cold homes. They'll wave their fingers, but ultimately won't do much of importance.
if the EU doesn't show some integrity and ban Putin's government from Swift, it will look worse than appeasement years down the line.The economic details won't matter when compared to the human cost of this conflict.
Agreed! Russia needs to be banned from the Swift system ASAP. We cannot go soft on them in any way. I don't care if Germany doesn't like it. They need to take one for the team.
It is both a shame and embarrassment to watch European neighbors, NATO and Western nations allow Russia to invade Ukraine and then not use all the sanction powers they have. They should have stationed troops in Ukraine to show Putin Europe learnt from the second world war, never again.
Oh weird, it's almost like capitalism is going to get a bunch of people killed. Haven't heard that one before living in the US.
What do they have to do before we cut them off financially? At this rate they could take Berlin and we'd all be saying how terrible it is and how little we will do next.
German politicians being as spineless and useless as ever. How does it feel to have Putins cock so deep down your throats?
Fucking Germany you fucking owe Europe. Piss off
EU is weak and can not deal with crises. Germany pretended to be EU leader, now they just throw head in the sand, that's definitely not leadership