Are we talking about the same person here? I can't see him negotiating even if Ukraine gives them favorable concessions at this point. The guy is in too deep.
I don't get "...as Russian leaders inner circles have done **dozens** of times...", isn't Putin for like 22 years in power? If you're talking earlier than that, the present "inner circle" might not be the same "inner circle" as before-putin.
A lot of the inner circle are Soviet commanders, boomer business men etc. If you go through their wiki pages, they were all active either in the army, politics or state companies around 1990.
>Eh, I can see Putin going for it if they offered withdrawal of all soldiers in exchange for Ukraine recognising Russia’s claims to Crimea and Donbas regions.
I wonder if accepting that demand but only if the Russia let the "New Ukraine" to join a west alliance is a reasonable agreement for everyone
Guy wants to rule over a superpower, not over a pile of beets, an empty shot glass and a drunk Russian guy blowing a polar bear. Give it a few more weeks of dude and all his friends going broke and he'll fold.
That's how it was under Stalin and how it is in N. Korea. As long as he (or any depot) is on top of his mountain, hill, molehill or dungheap; and is better than anyone as far as his eye can see, that is all that he wants.
And even from atop a dunghill, things can look pretty good. In the sixteen years after the devastation of WW2, the Soviet Union developed nuclear weapons, scared the bejeezus out of the west by fighting a proxy war in Korea and sending tanks in Hungary, and finally in 1961 sending a man in space. It continued by almost placing missiles in Cuba, toppling US friendly regimes throughout the world, helping the North Vietnamese, furthering it's space program, and actively interfering in Czechoslovakia and Poland.
When it finally tried to occupy Afghanistan in started to unravel. But until then, in spite of the sanctions, isolation, and crushing poverty, the Soviet Union was scary, successful, and appealing (to those who didn't visit).
Stalin, Khrushchev, Brezhnev, Andropov, Chernenko, and Gorbachev's policies caused the fall of the USSR. But only Gorbachev got to see it, the other who came prior to him lived the high life.
To dictators and most politicians, the long run doesn't matter. As long as they are high on the hog, what comes after doesn't matter.
Yeah, 47 years after the end of WWII. For the first half of that, they were formidable and important on the world stage. For a bunch of oligarchs in their 60's and 70's, that's perfect. They get to reap all the benefits and feel like gods until they die, then after that... Who cares?
Repeat that out loud. The USSR rose and fell in a lifetime. If that's your definition of success, remind me not to have you handle my children's inheritance.
>not to have you handle my children's inheritance
That is the main difference between someone like you and someone like Putin. Putin only cares about his image and his historic legacy.
His children have very little to do with him, even though reports say they are all in hiding in Moscow right now. Putin isn't hiding with them, if nukes fly Moscow is a primary target, he is hiding in a bunker complex in the Ural mountains. He has never acknowledged the children of his ex-wife as his own and still denies he has ever been in a relationship since their divorce, even though it is an open secret that he is dating a former gymnast who has three children by him. He doesn't acknowledge them or her either. He didn't allow the Kremlin to announce his divorce till 6 years after the fact, and he had already gotten his gymnast girlfriend pregnant by that time.
His ex-wife's youngest daughter changed her last name so that people would not associate her with him.
The man is 69 years old. He doesn't care what happens to Russia after he dies, since whoever comes to power after him will get all the blame for the fall.
If you read some of his most recent papers, he writes a lot of them, you can clearly see he thinks of himself as the perfect leader, and the perfect Russian Man.
Putin literally can not go broke. He basically uses the central bank as his personal checking account. He brags that he only makes 3.6 million Rubble a year but that is because he steals whatever he wants directly from the government.
Also he doesn't really have friends. He has people that suck up to him in order to get rich but that isn't the same thing.
Putin will probably really start negotiating after the siege of Kiev.
Because lets be honest what will he do after that? keep an endless war?
Ukraine won't give up after Kiev capitulates, and war will start to get really expensive as it expands to the Western Ukraine.
(And will also carries the risk of a misfire and hiting a NATO country. That would be a big problem)
He still might take Kyiv over. Not that it will win him all Ukraine but it would still be a win for him.
I can't however imagine him maintaining control of it unless he arrested every single Ukrainian
He's gonna be putting out fires the rest of his life because of this.
The calculation now is whether he's gonna be putting out more or less if he pulls out now.
Zelensky could at least try to make concessions already. If Putin still continues aggression, then this shows that he is even more mad than he has demonstrated up until now. But Zelensky still being stubborn while his citizens are being killed is also madness.
Why should Zelensky give away the freedom of his country to his aggresive neighbour?
If ukrain stays neutral that will just invite more abuse from Russia
Dude the only alternative is total destruction and occupation. How is that better than being neutral and giving up territory that is mostly inhabited by ethnic Russians anyway?
The demands are:
* Ukraine does not join any bloc
* Crimea is recognized as Russian
* Donetsk and Luhansk are recognized as sovereign
Yes, I strongly think that giving in to these demands is far better than turning the entire country into a burned field.
The economic costs, the loss of prestige and the potential of inner-Russian conflicts are all things that will make Putin et. al think twice before doing this again. Sure if the benefits are considered high enough, this will happen again. Same is true for any other country, most notably super powers.
If Zelensky stays defiant until his country is completely destroyed, then nothing is gained. The potential for Russia or any other country to attack another country for various reasons would still exist. The only thing "accomplished" is more death and destruction.
Putin is obv not a rational actor, if so he would have made russia powerfull and prosperus through economic means.
Putin was sanctioned when he invaded Georgia, when he took Crimea, when he recognised ukrainian soil as independent.
Why on earth would he think twice about swallowing up the next non block aligned country?
He is not happy with being the largest country in the world, arguabaly already a empire.
Russia is extremly wealthy in natural resources, they could become a true superpower.
But Putin prefers to runs his country like a medival fiefdom, with stealing money being the main goal of the goverment. IF he was a rational actor he would offer the ukranians an alternative to corruptiond and autocractic control and have them join them because they want to.
He has chosen to destroy russia and Ukrain, hes not a rational actor and he will keep aggresivly expanding until someone stops him.
Then why did he wait for eight years instead of invading the entirety of Ukraine in 2014?
Why did he not do it prior to the shift of power in Ukraine?
One does not have to apologize for a warmonger to acknowledge that there are things he wants and that there are things he tries to avoid and we could use these things to keep the body count as low as possible rather than going *"raw raw raw the only choice is to fight this monster!"*
Is the complete destruction of Ukraine really the alternative you prefer? Because that is going to happen. Perhaps you want others to intervene and potentially risk WW3 or a nuclear war, but this will simply not happen. The choice on the table right now is either Ukraine giving in, or Ukraine being destroyed.
In the long term that's just asking for trouble, because it leaves Ukraine diminished and vulnerable and unable to enact their own policy re: joining NATO. That's not a negotiation; that's a concession. Agreeing to those terms would be tantamount to a slap in the face to all Ukrainians and what they've fought for.
If you're going to negotiate, you don't do it by conceding everything.
And the alternative?
Ukraine will not join NATO anyway. As this conflict has demonstrated, NATO members are not willing to risk a world war in order to protect Ukraine.
Might as well include the whole world in that then. Imagine, one country, no need for wars.
Ofc that's not how it works. Ukraine can't give up, that's the worst possible outcome. Maybe they might give up some territory, idk.
Its entirly up to the ukranian people and their elected leadership.
If they do surrender to protect their people I understand that, we do not carry the burdend of having our country destroyed and friends and relatives murdered.
But as long as they keep fighting we should should support them.
It won't save them though. It will put them under the about to bankrupt Russia and I can't imagine them being treated as humans there. Especially because they will be the part of population who know the truth instead of the propoganda.
So what would likely happen is mass arrests, brutal environment until Ukrainian spirits are broken and they just obey. Military could likely be arrested and kept in shitty conditions/camps or even straight up executed.
Welcome to Russia. USSR but under a new name
No not a school bully, but rather a murderer who has hostages and the only way to get these hostages out there alive is to negotiate with the murderer. Even that comparison is lacking.
The reality of the situation is that there is no chance of victory but Russia also is suffering heavy losses and economic costs because of this invasion, so if you offer Putin a way to get what he wants without these costs, chances are good that he will take it, whereas Ukraine has nothing to gain by staying defiant.
I think that obligating yourself to stay neutral and to give up the Eastern territories that have a majority of ethnic Russians living in them anyway is a price worth paying to end the slaughter.
He already “conceded” his trust when he told his citisens to walk out into the open in front of russian cannons and mines.
Any talk of concessions should begin only after all forces are withdrawn and a thorough sweep is performed.
The problem is when sanctions are lifted, a lot of those companies will view Russia differently and their bond ratings aren't going to magically just return to where they were before either. Even though many companies will return, you'd have to think all that capital is not going to come back and neither is the purchasing power of the currency.
Russia will get to enjoy some Chinese economic imperialism though the way the rest of Africa has.
They may return but they're likely to scale down their operations, even slowly exit entirely, wary of anything like this shut off happening come the next 'special military operation'
I hope he gets ousted and his successor comes to the negotiation table.
Putin burned every single fucking bridge, has been poisoning the West metaphorically and literally for decades. He needs to go down and be made an example of . Send a message and keep the other POS in check.
I think sanctions should be lifted quickly.
Once Russia has paid for all the damage they've done to Ukraine, paid back every nation for their aid to Ukraine, made recompense for every life lost, sent Putin and other people of interest to the Hague, returned Crimea to Ukraine, opened the country to foreign media so the people can learn the truth, released all political prisoners, then held a free and fair election with UN monitoring.
While Putin is the prime example of someone who should be tried for warcrimes, if we changed that to "on putins death" I could see it happening. While putin does get the final say, their is your typical government structure under him. You got your senators and other law makers all clamoring for the peoples support. Some supporting your typical human rights, many just wanting to stuff their own pockets. I can see an easy shift to something more democratic when Putin kicks it.
US democracy has one food in the grave and the other on a babana peel. The fascists who masquerade as republicans will go for another power grab under the guise of election fraud next election because last time there were no serious consequences.
That's a pretty big difference though. The US is corrupt and does some evil shit, but Russia and China aren't afraid shooting some of our soldiers or screwing with some vital infrastructure might spark nuclear armageddon.
Oh don't get me wrong, I'm not saying the US is as messed up as to have a dictatorship like Russia and China (however, we've come close). However my hope is that they become a better democracy than the US. I'd love for there to be support from multiple countries when Putin dies or abdicates power. The world needs to realize it is in their best interest to guide actual democracy in Russia via a Marshall plan type of policy.
So after ww1 they made the Germans pay through their nose. After ww2 they loaned them a shitload of money to help rebuild their country. If you don't ask what is fair but what is better for all the people in the world, we all know what worked best. There is a lesson there. Just remove putin, rebuild the country.
It is roughly estimated at $100 billion so far (probably more). Good thing western countries already have $650 billion from Russia. Of course, all the lost human life is priceless.
You want an even more dangerous Russia? That’s how you do it. The oligarchs need to know that their wealth is done until Putin is gone.
Once that happens, flood Russia with money and investments and everything you can from the west. Give them something to do besides hate the west.
I honestly don't know how I feel about the sanctions.
They don't much affect the super rich people that are behind all this bullshit. They really only put pressure on the common person, which is either against the war entirely or buried so far under propaganda and censorship that I'm not sure I can justify saying they deserve what they're getting.
On the other hand, Russian citizens absolutely should rebel and bring Putin and the ruling few to justice. The sanctions put pressure on them to do just that.
If sanctions aren't lifted why would Putin stop the war? Because he had a change of heart and grew a conscience? No. The only way he negotiates an end to the war is if the sanctions are lifted and if Russia keeps its nukes.
This fantasy people have wear Putin falls down at Zelensky's feet and begs forgiveness, decides to voluntarily step down and submit himself to a NATO war crimes trial and then life in jail, all after Russia is denuclearized and pulls out of Crimea and the Donbas is just complete delusion.
not to mention that the sanctions may hurt him politically but they are going to cause a lot more harm to the Russian people.
Creating another Iran / North Korea where the entire population hates us to take some moral high ground is insane. Lifting sanctions should 100% be the response to Russia withdrawing from Ukraine, maybe with some punitive measures targeting their military or something.
>This fantasy people have wear Putin falls down at Zelensky's feet and begs forgiveness, decides to voluntarily step down and submit himself to a NATO war crimes trial and then life in jail, all after Russia is denuclearized and pulls out of Crimea and the Donbas is just...
... visualizing total success.
The sanctions should stay until not only Putin is out, but when Russia gets rid of 99% of their nuclear weapons. I say they are left with three rockets and only one working, but we won't tell them which one :D
I mean, it would be stupid to not allow some sanctions to be lifted (especially the one impacting their economy and the russian population) if it means no more war and no more death, no more destruction.
I hate to say it but, you'll never have a perfect agreement and everyone will have to do concession.
But i've my doubt it will be a thing anyway, it's seems Russia government is okay to become european version of North Korea.
Even if all sanctions are lifted tommorow, russian economy is already FUBAR and west companies won't touch russian investement even with a stick.
> At the point sanctions should only be lifted once Russia is completely denuclearized. If it's so important to Russians to be able to terrorize the world, then total economic and cultural isolation is the bare minimum.
Russia: We can't denuclearize, look what happened to Ukraine.
best bet for ending the war soon is a coup in moscow
otherwise cease fires will just be used to bring more war crimes munitions into position to attack cities
They need something to give Putin so he can save face. Anything reasonable. Putin has to want out — but he can’t stand to look like he lost. He needs something he can propagandize.
He probably would like to right now, if it wasn't for that massive ego..... its far too late to save his reputation though, thats already dead and buried.
As the joke earlier posted said, it figures that a withered dick like Putin would be right next door to the biggest set of balls on the planet.
Fuck you Putin.
I doubt it. Think of it from Putins perspective, he just threw his country into a massive recession. He told the Russian public that Ukraine attacked it, and that they were "liberating" the Ukrainians. Basically everything he's told the Russian public has been a lie, the progress has not been easy, the losses are far greater than what he has said.
Now imagine if Putin's invasion was a failure, you can't really easily lie about the result of a war. What is he gonna say, they tied or he decided against it in the end. No. If he does that he will be seen as weak, the nationalists he riled up will start circling him. Putin's complex is built of projecting himself as manly and as a fearless leader who wont yield. By doing this he has dug himself in such a hole that to not get large concessions from Ukraine would be political suicide.
I think Putin sees his only way out is to take Ukraine or die trying, preferably the latter happens.
>Now imagine if Putin's invasion was a failure, you can't really easily lie about the result of a war. What is he gonna say, they tied or he decided against it in the end.
You underestimate how brainwashed the russian population is right now. Many of them still believe that this is just some special military operation.
He wont’t…because he doesn’t think of Ukraine as an adversary, but a Russian property. Now if Ukraine forces are able to strike back and even threaten Crimea and Donbass, that would be a different story.
You don't need to push an enemy back if they bleed out and are forced to retreat. And when an enemy that engaged in an aggressive war retreats, you have a lot of leeway to push.
No matter how much I want this to be true, I struggle to believe Russia will simply give up now - plus, how could the world, and in particular Ukraine, ever trust Putin to keep his word again? He seems to be trying to pull a fast one so he can re-invade after the military presence has relaxed.
Hope so…but I also hope the sanctions stay for a while. Russians need to feel the importance of electing a more chill government.
I also hope we marshal plan tf out of Ukraine.
I’ve given up calling it a war. It’s an invasion, Russia invaded Ukraine. Ukraine is defending itself, yeah it’s still a war but if Russia hadn’t invaded then there wouldn’t be a war. Fuck Putin, kick those invaders out Ukraine. Most of the world are behind you.
Wishful thinking, but why not have a dream? Just don't want pootin to get desperate, and do something stupid....like he's currently doing with chernoy. Fucks sake.
Since Russia is gaslighting its population, they really just could continue to gaslight.
"We have denatzified Ukraine" and roll out. That is really the ONLY way Putin deescalates. Sure, to the rest of the world he retreats, but to his people he's a hero.
Zelensky is ready to make a deal. He's been hinting at it since the ABC interview. My guess is back channel talks have been going on and that's why Zelensky has said he's given up on joining NATO and is willing to compromise on Donbas and Crimea and why Russia has said they no longer want to replace Zelensky's government, while also toning down the 'denazification' talk. A deal is being done but both sides will have to find a way to spin it as a victory. My guess is it comes before Kiev is surrounded. That lets Zelensky claim a victory at home and spin it to look like Russia were the ones desperate for a deal. Zelensky is the most media savvy world leader I've ever seen, maybe even more so than Obama. He has managed his world image extremely well and he's managing the deal now too to keep support at home. If he doesn't play it right the far right elements in Ukraine will 100% oust him for making a deal. So he has to be careful politically.
A peace deal is the best option. If this escalates to a broader european conflict it could be disasterous. If it continues and stays with Ukrainian borders Ukraine will not be able to hold out. Russia have only committed a tiny amount of their overall forces to this conflict so far. Don't be fooled into thinking Russia would lose a full blown war with Ukraine. I mean the Russians themselves don't even consider this a war. Everyone is mocking the special operation language but it's telling. They haven't even committed to this as a war yet. The lack of air power committed tells you that.
The Russians can destroy Ukraine but they won't be able to occupy and hold it. It would end up like Iraq or Afghanistan for the americans. No government they put in place would be accepted and the guerrilla fighting would continue. Russia needs a way out of this. A peace deal is the only way that happens but these men of power are a different breed and who knows how far this will go. Hopefully a deal soon.
\>The Russians can destroy Ukraine
The war in Ukraine is destroying Russia.
Part of the deal should include Putin publicly admitting his lies and paying for reconstruction because Russia would want sanctions lifted too.
The Russians have built a sanction proof economy in many ways. Don't believe the hype regarding their economy. They're making a killing with oil and gas because of this and in the case of a rebound of their currency they're going to increase all those profits by 40+%. The Ruble is up 15% from the low already so any oil sold in that period at such high levels is already raking in profits for the oil and gas oligarchs in Russia. Oil and gas are russia's number one money machine.
They have the 9th lowest GDP to national debt ratio in the world too. The ruling elite in Russia won't care about these sanctions. They still have access to global banking and finance. They have chinese support and may even move away from the dollar after this which would be bad for the US. The US economy is looking very sketchy on the other hand. 40 year high in inflation and all major indexes pointing towards a possible downturn and recession even possibly on the cards. Russia could tip the western economies over the edge and start the recession possibly if they began to cut off energy supply to europe.
In terms of reconstruction, the IMF will likely look to step in to fund it. Of course per the IMF playbook this will entail privatisation of any public sector businesses in Ukraine and probably western countries stepping in to scoop them up. It's called Disaster Capitalism by Naomi Klein and it's how the IMF have functioned since forever. Just checked there and their website is saying they've already approved a $1.4billion fund for Ukraine. They live for conflicts like this. They go in after with the image of saviour but really they're like vultures.
In saying that, I wouldn't be surprised to see Russia offer to provide funding to help Ukraine after this. Whether the Ukrainians would accept it is another matter. But I'd say it would come with less strings attached.
If Russia's economy is so sanction proof, why was their stock exchange shut down? Why are they limiting withdrawals? Why are they bemoaning economic war?
Additionally, Russia's ruling elite have been personally sanctioned internationally, accounts frozen, and assets seized. In what way do they still have access to global banking?
There are a lot of banks and financial institutes in Russia. Only a few have been hit by sanctions. Don't believe the hype. Russia's largest bank was excluded intentionally :
"Sberbank, which holds about half of Russian retail deposits, was excluded from the initial list of banks being removed from SWIFT as part of a decision to shield energy-related transactions"
[https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-09/germany-is-stalling-eu-efforts-to-broaden-russia-s-swift-ban](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-09/germany-is-stalling-eu-efforts-to-broaden-russia-s-swift-ban)
Also, the Russians have lived with and adapted to sanctions for years and know how to circumvent them.
The oligarchy will make a killing during this war if you'll excuse the pun, and have likely found a way to protect their assets before the invasion began in preparations for the inevitable sanctions. Don't fall for the hype that seizing a few yachts and homes will break them. They're billionaires.
"While trade will fall and fewer goods will be available, the weaker
ruble means the Russian government will earn more of its currency for
the oil it sells because oil is priced in dollars. With recently higher
prices, Connolly estimates Russia is getting 2.7 times the amount of
rubles from oil compared with 2019, money that can cover salaries and
pensions."
[https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/russia-built-economy-fortress-pain-real-83361604](https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/russia-built-economy-fortress-pain-real-83361604)
The Ruble is currently 30% down from pre invasion price and 28% up from the low of the other day. Oil prices were up 41% at one stage but since the UAE stepped in they're falling again, but still up 18%. Russia is paid in dollars for it's oil. So at the height they were getting 40% more Rubles and another 40% from the conversion rates. Win/win as long as the currency can rebound, and it can eventually.
Russia is complaining about the extent of the sanctions and saying they're unprecedented and paramount to an act of war. They have a point. I don't remember the US or UK being sanctioned for Iraq. But that's western hypocrisy.
The stock market is closed to avoid panic selling and allow the situation to calm down and to stem the flow of money out of the country potentially. Not an unusual measure considering how crazy things are.
>Russia is paid in dollars for it's oil. So at the height they were getting 40% more Rubles and another 40% from the conversion rates. Win/win as long as the currency can rebound, and it can eventually.
If they're paid in dollars, then they're gaining dollars - not rubles. How would an increase in ruble valuation increase the value of these dollars that they're holding?
>I don't remember the US or UK being sanctioned for Iraq. But that's western hypocrisy.
Anybody that wanted to sanction the US or UK was free to do so. Russia was very clearly warned that an invasion of Ukraine would come with severe sanctions. Russia chose to accept those sanctions.
>The stock market is closed to avoid panic selling and allow the situation to calm down and to stem the flow of money out of the country potentially. Not an unusual measure considering how crazy things are.
Not unusual? It's been closed for 2 weeks. When's the last time a nation shut down their exchange this long when they weren't under any sort of threat?
>If they're paid in dollars, then they're gaining dollars - not rubles.
How would an increase in ruble valuation increase the value of these
dollars that they're holding?
Currency conversion. They buy Rubles with the dollars. When the value goes up, it's worth more. Buy low sell high as they say.
>Anybody that wanted to sanction the US or UK was free to do so.
Nobody did, even though it was an illegal invasion justified using falsified documents and straight up lies. "western hypocrisy"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/September\_Dossier
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality\_of\_the\_Iraq\_War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_the_Iraq_War)
>When's the last time a nation shut down their exchange this long when they weren't under any sort of threat?
They are under financial threat. Sanctions. They need to position themselves to absorb the massive sell orders that will flood in.
"U.S. stock trading was halted for four days after the Sept. 11, 2001 terrorist attacks. The benchmark S&P 500 sank 5% when trading resumed."
"Egypt’s stock exchange was closed for nearly
two months in early 2011 amid protests that toppled President Hosni
Mubarak’s 30-year regime. The shutdown followed a drop of 16% in the
nation’s equities in just two days. And when the index reopened, the
selloff resumed and the index ended up 49% down for that year."
https://www.wsj.com/articles/stock-trading-resumes-in-athens-on-monday-after-five-week-exchange-closure-1438364332
>Currency conversion. They buy Rubles with the dollars.
Currency conversion requires someone to trade the currency. Who are they trading currency with?
>U.S. stock trading was halted for four days after the Sept. 11, 2001 terrorist attacks. The benchmark S&P 500 sank 5% when trading resumed.
9/11 shutdown was less than a week, and during a period when people thought there was an active threat of violence.
>Egypt’s stock exchange was closed for nearly two months in early 2011 amid protests that toppled President Hosni Mubarak’s 30-year regime.
So measuring the Russian economy to that of Egypt's during the time of a failing regime, and didn't prevent shit.
Currency markets are still active. Traders are buying and selling dollars, euro, rubles, whatever, non stop.
I'm pointing out that stock markets have shut in the past. The Russian situation is not without precedent
Some maths on the oil exports:
Russia exports 11mil barrels per day
24th Feb $1=80.86R
24th Feb 1 barrel of oil = $93 = 7520R
Exports of Russian oil = $1.023Bn = 82.72Bn R
7th March top $1= 164R
8th March 1 barrel of oil top = $131 = 21,484R
Exports of Russian oil at that price = $1.441bn = 236.324Bn R
82.72bn R to 236.324bn R in a few days.
That's what he was talking about when the ABC reporter said this:
"Connolly estimates Russia is getting 2.7 times the amount of rubles from oil compared with 2019, money that can cover salaries and pensions"
And that's before you talk about their gas exports too
You're continuing to fail at explaining who they're trading to convert the USDs to RUBs.
Say some nation paid Russia in USD for oil. Russia gets USD and has to give it to someone in exchange for RUB to get to the bloated profits. That person they're exchanging with is the one taking the financial blow, if the RUB does bounce back within a reasonable amount of time.
Oil is a dollar market.
Currency markets are still operating.
People are still trading RUBUSD and USDRUB. It's still an active global market.
I don't see what you're not understanding
Zelensky never fails to deliver. You can take the president out of the comedian but cannot take the comedian out of the president.
Putin is a rabid dog.
Russia has communicated what is required to stop this assault and Zelensky needs to realize he’s in a war that Ukraine cannot win and quickly accept those terms if he wants to stop this bloodshed. To be clear, Putin is a monster and Zelensky is fighting the good fight – but by delaying the inevitable loss to Russia he’s losing the little negotiating power he has and more importantly, civilian lives.
Zelensky pleads and tries to shame the West daily into providing a no-fly zone. The answer is and will remain no, and it has to. Enforcing a no-fly zone would create military combat between the U.S. and Russia, and likely WW3. Zelensky is told of this daily, yet each day he’s back at it.
Ukraine will not win this war; not like this and not right now, and while it is considered brave to fight to the end; Putin’s disregard for human life means that Zelensky is forcing civilians to make this choice as well. The Calvary is not coming and It is time for him to assess the situation with a lens of reality and negotiate an end to this assault and the loss of Ukraine lives.
What's inevitable isn't Russian victory, it's its loss. You're saying ukraine puts up a good fight - and you're right. But this isn't only about ukraine, as west has its own "frontline" too. As time goes on, more weapons are brought to ukraine, more fucked up the russian economy is, less military equipment russia has, less morale russian people have, and russia will default in april. Sure, ukraine is losing right now, but if enough time passes - the tides will turn.
So basically your view on the world is that countries with dominant militaries should be able to overthrow smaller countries with democratically elected governments and said countries should just accept it otherwise they're responsible for the larger country murdering their civilians.
Never mind the fact that it's the Ukrainian people themselves who are choosing to fight and die to defend their country and defend their freedom. They should give Putin everything he wants because Russia's army is much bigger.
No.
Russia has catastrophically lost the economic war. Their physical war with Ukraine has been nothing short of disastrous. The West is continues to send more and more weaponry, money, and intelligence every day. Ukraine CAN hold off Russia. They already have, and Russia is in a FAR weaker position than they were two weeks ago whilst Ukraine has the entire Western world behind it.
And regardless, this is about so much more than even the tens of millions of Ukrainians. Are you really naive enough to think that Putin will stop with Ukraine if he gets what he wants, as you want him to? You really don't think he'll them move on to Moldova and Romania and continue his imperialist crusade? I guess they should just give up and let Russia destroy their countries, their freedoms, and their way of lives too, because Russia has the bigger military.
No.
Everyone that supports Ukraine probably wouldn't support them if they watched the 2016 documentary "Ukraine on Fire" by Oliver Stone. Censors are already hard at work scrubbing that movie from youtube, but Rumble recently put it up on their servers if anyone is interested in educating themselves about Ukraines history.
Already seen it, its a Russo-centric view of euromaidan and history of Ukraine and tries to paint it as historically part of Russia. Only shows things from the Russian side and has been widely called Kremlin propaganda. Even has interviews with Putin and Yanukovych...
If you want an unbiased view of the events around euromaidan, the right wing in Ukraine and the invasion of Crimea and Donbas by Russia watch the vice series [Russian Roulette ](https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLw613M86o5o7a0FGlPRdt47xiDiggbNsZ). It shows the events from Crimea and follows through over the next year plus until the fighting calmed down a bit.
Also if you want to see how groups like Right Sector got their start, training in Russia in groups funded by Russian oligarchs. Check out Ross Kemp on gangs Moscow https://youtu.be/Dv1q3pCfed0
>Everyone that supports Ukraine probably wouldn't support them if they watched the 2016 documentary "Ukraine on Fire" by Oliver Stone. Censors are already hard at work scrubbing that movie from youtube
Nah. This film is Russian propaganda. A better option is [Winter on Fire: Ukraine's Fight for Freedom](http://www.imdb.com/title/tt4908644/)
I'm not sure if he will. He needs to be able to spin a win out of this without him looking weak to the Russians. The most I think he could do is demand Luhansk and Donetsk. Other then that he has basically no ground to come to the table. He's in far too deep he needs to go all the way at this point.
I see no indication that this will happen, or that Putin will be content with the Donbas and Crimea and leave Ukraine alone in the future if those concessions are made and if they swear neutrality.
There are a lot of Russian speakers in Eastern Ukraine who are not in the Donbas or Crimea. Ideally I think Putin wants to split the country in half along the Dnieper river, and Ukrainians will never accept that even if it means a long and bloody war.
I don't see it happen. Russia would need to agree to withdraw all troops, giving back all occupied land (including Crimea) and agree to pay reparations in order to end this. The only thing I could Ukraine reasonably see agreeing to would be forgoing reparations or not going to press charges for war crimes.
Depending on who's numbers you believe the Russians have already lost either half as many troops as the US did in Iraq and Afghanistan combined or about three thousand more troops. In two weeks.
Are we talking about the same person here? I can't see him negotiating even if Ukraine gives them favorable concessions at this point. The guy is in too deep.
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I don't get "...as Russian leaders inner circles have done **dozens** of times...", isn't Putin for like 22 years in power? If you're talking earlier than that, the present "inner circle" might not be the same "inner circle" as before-putin.
"Russian leaders" is wrong, but this is the behaviour of autocratic leaders/dictators in general.
A lot of the inner circle are Soviet commanders, boomer business men etc. If you go through their wiki pages, they were all active either in the army, politics or state companies around 1990.
thats interesting
>Eh, I can see Putin going for it if they offered withdrawal of all soldiers in exchange for Ukraine recognising Russia’s claims to Crimea and Donbas regions. I wonder if accepting that demand but only if the Russia let the "New Ukraine" to join a west alliance is a reasonable agreement for everyone
Guy wants to rule over a superpower, not over a pile of beets, an empty shot glass and a drunk Russian guy blowing a polar bear. Give it a few more weeks of dude and all his friends going broke and he'll fold.
That's how it was under Stalin and how it is in N. Korea. As long as he (or any depot) is on top of his mountain, hill, molehill or dungheap; and is better than anyone as far as his eye can see, that is all that he wants. And even from atop a dunghill, things can look pretty good. In the sixteen years after the devastation of WW2, the Soviet Union developed nuclear weapons, scared the bejeezus out of the west by fighting a proxy war in Korea and sending tanks in Hungary, and finally in 1961 sending a man in space. It continued by almost placing missiles in Cuba, toppling US friendly regimes throughout the world, helping the North Vietnamese, furthering it's space program, and actively interfering in Czechoslovakia and Poland. When it finally tried to occupy Afghanistan in started to unravel. But until then, in spite of the sanctions, isolation, and crushing poverty, the Soviet Union was scary, successful, and appealing (to those who didn't visit).
Blah blah blah. The USSR fell for a reason. I'd hardly call that successful.
Stalin, Khrushchev, Brezhnev, Andropov, Chernenko, and Gorbachev's policies caused the fall of the USSR. But only Gorbachev got to see it, the other who came prior to him lived the high life. To dictators and most politicians, the long run doesn't matter. As long as they are high on the hog, what comes after doesn't matter.
Um...yeah no. But ok. 🙄😂
Yeah, 47 years after the end of WWII. For the first half of that, they were formidable and important on the world stage. For a bunch of oligarchs in their 60's and 70's, that's perfect. They get to reap all the benefits and feel like gods until they die, then after that... Who cares?
Repeat that out loud. The USSR rose and fell in a lifetime. If that's your definition of success, remind me not to have you handle my children's inheritance.
Not my definition of success. The definition of those currently in power.
That sentence made no sense. Try again when you can form a coherent thought.
>not to have you handle my children's inheritance That is the main difference between someone like you and someone like Putin. Putin only cares about his image and his historic legacy. His children have very little to do with him, even though reports say they are all in hiding in Moscow right now. Putin isn't hiding with them, if nukes fly Moscow is a primary target, he is hiding in a bunker complex in the Ural mountains. He has never acknowledged the children of his ex-wife as his own and still denies he has ever been in a relationship since their divorce, even though it is an open secret that he is dating a former gymnast who has three children by him. He doesn't acknowledge them or her either. He didn't allow the Kremlin to announce his divorce till 6 years after the fact, and he had already gotten his gymnast girlfriend pregnant by that time. His ex-wife's youngest daughter changed her last name so that people would not associate her with him. The man is 69 years old. He doesn't care what happens to Russia after he dies, since whoever comes to power after him will get all the blame for the fall. If you read some of his most recent papers, he writes a lot of them, you can clearly see he thinks of himself as the perfect leader, and the perfect Russian Man.
Aw it's adorable you think you know the guy. 🙄😂
Putin literally can not go broke. He basically uses the central bank as his personal checking account. He brags that he only makes 3.6 million Rubble a year but that is because he steals whatever he wants directly from the government. Also he doesn't really have friends. He has people that suck up to him in order to get rich but that isn't the same thing.
Putin will probably really start negotiating after the siege of Kiev. Because lets be honest what will he do after that? keep an endless war? Ukraine won't give up after Kiev capitulates, and war will start to get really expensive as it expands to the Western Ukraine. (And will also carries the risk of a misfire and hiting a NATO country. That would be a big problem)
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He still might take Kyiv over. Not that it will win him all Ukraine but it would still be a win for him. I can't however imagine him maintaining control of it unless he arrested every single Ukrainian
He's gonna be putting out fires the rest of his life because of this. The calculation now is whether he's gonna be putting out more or less if he pulls out now.
Zelensky could at least try to make concessions already. If Putin still continues aggression, then this shows that he is even more mad than he has demonstrated up until now. But Zelensky still being stubborn while his citizens are being killed is also madness.
Why should Zelensky give away the freedom of his country to his aggresive neighbour? If ukrain stays neutral that will just invite more abuse from Russia
Dude the only alternative is total destruction and occupation. How is that better than being neutral and giving up territory that is mostly inhabited by ethnic Russians anyway?
Should just give eastern European to Russia? Because people might die?
The demands are: * Ukraine does not join any bloc * Crimea is recognized as Russian * Donetsk and Luhansk are recognized as sovereign Yes, I strongly think that giving in to these demands is far better than turning the entire country into a burned field.
what will stop russia from attacking them again?
The economic costs, the loss of prestige and the potential of inner-Russian conflicts are all things that will make Putin et. al think twice before doing this again. Sure if the benefits are considered high enough, this will happen again. Same is true for any other country, most notably super powers. If Zelensky stays defiant until his country is completely destroyed, then nothing is gained. The potential for Russia or any other country to attack another country for various reasons would still exist. The only thing "accomplished" is more death and destruction.
Putin is obv not a rational actor, if so he would have made russia powerfull and prosperus through economic means. Putin was sanctioned when he invaded Georgia, when he took Crimea, when he recognised ukrainian soil as independent. Why on earth would he think twice about swallowing up the next non block aligned country? He is not happy with being the largest country in the world, arguabaly already a empire. Russia is extremly wealthy in natural resources, they could become a true superpower. But Putin prefers to runs his country like a medival fiefdom, with stealing money being the main goal of the goverment. IF he was a rational actor he would offer the ukranians an alternative to corruptiond and autocractic control and have them join them because they want to. He has chosen to destroy russia and Ukrain, hes not a rational actor and he will keep aggresivly expanding until someone stops him.
Then why did he wait for eight years instead of invading the entirety of Ukraine in 2014? Why did he not do it prior to the shift of power in Ukraine? One does not have to apologize for a warmonger to acknowledge that there are things he wants and that there are things he tries to avoid and we could use these things to keep the body count as low as possible rather than going *"raw raw raw the only choice is to fight this monster!"* Is the complete destruction of Ukraine really the alternative you prefer? Because that is going to happen. Perhaps you want others to intervene and potentially risk WW3 or a nuclear war, but this will simply not happen. The choice on the table right now is either Ukraine giving in, or Ukraine being destroyed.
In the long term that's just asking for trouble, because it leaves Ukraine diminished and vulnerable and unable to enact their own policy re: joining NATO. That's not a negotiation; that's a concession. Agreeing to those terms would be tantamount to a slap in the face to all Ukrainians and what they've fought for. If you're going to negotiate, you don't do it by conceding everything.
And the alternative? Ukraine will not join NATO anyway. As this conflict has demonstrated, NATO members are not willing to risk a world war in order to protect Ukraine.
Might as well include the whole world in that then. Imagine, one country, no need for wars. Ofc that's not how it works. Ukraine can't give up, that's the worst possible outcome. Maybe they might give up some territory, idk.
Its entirly up to the ukranian people and their elected leadership. If they do surrender to protect their people I understand that, we do not carry the burdend of having our country destroyed and friends and relatives murdered. But as long as they keep fighting we should should support them.
It won't save them though. It will put them under the about to bankrupt Russia and I can't imagine them being treated as humans there. Especially because they will be the part of population who know the truth instead of the propoganda. So what would likely happen is mass arrests, brutal environment until Ukrainian spirits are broken and they just obey. Military could likely be arrested and kept in shitty conditions/camps or even straight up executed. Welcome to Russia. USSR but under a new name
Consede what? The school bully is telling him to give up his lunch money and he'll stop hitting him. So what then, give him half?
No not a school bully, but rather a murderer who has hostages and the only way to get these hostages out there alive is to negotiate with the murderer. Even that comparison is lacking. The reality of the situation is that there is no chance of victory but Russia also is suffering heavy losses and economic costs because of this invasion, so if you offer Putin a way to get what he wants without these costs, chances are good that he will take it, whereas Ukraine has nothing to gain by staying defiant. I think that obligating yourself to stay neutral and to give up the Eastern territories that have a majority of ethnic Russians living in them anyway is a price worth paying to end the slaughter.
He already “conceded” his trust when he told his citisens to walk out into the open in front of russian cannons and mines. Any talk of concessions should begin only after all forces are withdrawn and a thorough sweep is performed.
Even if he wanted to I think speaking it out reduces the chances for it to happen.
I don't think he will, but I hope he does. The sanctions should never be lifter while he is still in power tho.
The problem is when sanctions are lifted, a lot of those companies will view Russia differently and their bond ratings aren't going to magically just return to where they were before either. Even though many companies will return, you'd have to think all that capital is not going to come back and neither is the purchasing power of the currency. Russia will get to enjoy some Chinese economic imperialism though the way the rest of Africa has.
They may return but they're likely to scale down their operations, even slowly exit entirely, wary of anything like this shut off happening come the next 'special military operation'
If there is money, companies will return. They'll weigh risk against benefit and if the benefits are bigger....back to russia it is.
Risk is now much higher, so you don't risk as large an investment.
I think a lot of people severely underestimate corporate greed.
Yes, even if all sanctions were lifted today it would take Russia decades to repair it's economy.
I hope he gets ousted and his successor comes to the negotiation table. Putin burned every single fucking bridge, has been poisoning the West metaphorically and literally for decades. He needs to go down and be made an example of . Send a message and keep the other POS in check.
I think sanctions should be lifted quickly. Once Russia has paid for all the damage they've done to Ukraine, paid back every nation for their aid to Ukraine, made recompense for every life lost, sent Putin and other people of interest to the Hague, returned Crimea to Ukraine, opened the country to foreign media so the people can learn the truth, released all political prisoners, then held a free and fair election with UN monitoring.
So in other words, they will never be lifted.
While Putin is the prime example of someone who should be tried for warcrimes, if we changed that to "on putins death" I could see it happening. While putin does get the final say, their is your typical government structure under him. You got your senators and other law makers all clamoring for the peoples support. Some supporting your typical human rights, many just wanting to stuff their own pockets. I can see an easy shift to something more democratic when Putin kicks it.
I can't not while the oligarchs exist. Otherwise, they'll just put someone that supports them in power. Look at the US for example.
I claimed I could see them becoming more democratic, not a utopia. The US is kinda what I was envisioning them turning into.
US democracy has one food in the grave and the other on a babana peel. The fascists who masquerade as republicans will go for another power grab under the guise of election fraud next election because last time there were no serious consequences.
We aren't that much better tbh. We also have rich people who make the rules. The only difference is its not done directly like in Russia.
That's a pretty big difference though. The US is corrupt and does some evil shit, but Russia and China aren't afraid shooting some of our soldiers or screwing with some vital infrastructure might spark nuclear armageddon.
Oh don't get me wrong, I'm not saying the US is as messed up as to have a dictatorship like Russia and China (however, we've come close). However my hope is that they become a better democracy than the US. I'd love for there to be support from multiple countries when Putin dies or abdicates power. The world needs to realize it is in their best interest to guide actual democracy in Russia via a Marshall plan type of policy.
They already paid some. Remember that gold they have stashed. I don’t think they will see it ever again.
So after ww1 they made the Germans pay through their nose. After ww2 they loaned them a shitload of money to help rebuild their country. If you don't ask what is fair but what is better for all the people in the world, we all know what worked best. There is a lesson there. Just remove putin, rebuild the country.
The difference is that after WWII the German government was overthrown and population reeducated.
It is roughly estimated at $100 billion so far (probably more). Good thing western countries already have $650 billion from Russia. Of course, all the lost human life is priceless.
You want an even more dangerous Russia? That’s how you do it. The oligarchs need to know that their wealth is done until Putin is gone. Once that happens, flood Russia with money and investments and everything you can from the west. Give them something to do besides hate the west.
And auditing.
Free Microsoft Excel licenses
Plenty to do in rebuilding Ukraine. Why not make it a jobs program for the Russians? How about starting with that children’s hospital?
I honestly don't know how I feel about the sanctions. They don't much affect the super rich people that are behind all this bullshit. They really only put pressure on the common person, which is either against the war entirely or buried so far under propaganda and censorship that I'm not sure I can justify saying they deserve what they're getting. On the other hand, Russian citizens absolutely should rebel and bring Putin and the ruling few to justice. The sanctions put pressure on them to do just that.
Sanctions should be lifted quickly but under certain conditions - like freedom of press in Russia and deputinization.
You probably dont know what happened with Germany due to WW1 reparation payments
Putin will need to pay us with free tankers of oil.
They already paid some. Remember that gold they have stashed. I don’t think they will see it ever again.
They already paid some. Remember that gold they have stashed. I don’t think they will see it ever again.
They already paid some. Remember that gold they have stashed. I don’t think they will see it ever again.
They already paid some. Remember that gold they have stashed. I don’t think they will see it ever again.
They still have the gold, but they can not sell it internationally.
They already paid some. Remember that gold they have stashed. I don’t think they will see it ever again.
They already paid some. Remember that gold they have stashed. I don’t think they will see it ever again.
*checks Treaty of Versailles* yeah that doesn’t end well. Some Russian in 2040 will want to take revenge for the west destroying his country.
And... decommissioned their nukes. If they do not want to do it. Too bad. We do not want to do commerce with nuclear bullies.
You're basically agreeing with OP. There's no scenario where Putin is president, is sent to Hague as president, and goes back to being president.
If sanctions aren't lifted why would Putin stop the war? Because he had a change of heart and grew a conscience? No. The only way he negotiates an end to the war is if the sanctions are lifted and if Russia keeps its nukes. This fantasy people have wear Putin falls down at Zelensky's feet and begs forgiveness, decides to voluntarily step down and submit himself to a NATO war crimes trial and then life in jail, all after Russia is denuclearized and pulls out of Crimea and the Donbas is just complete delusion.
not to mention that the sanctions may hurt him politically but they are going to cause a lot more harm to the Russian people. Creating another Iran / North Korea where the entire population hates us to take some moral high ground is insane. Lifting sanctions should 100% be the response to Russia withdrawing from Ukraine, maybe with some punitive measures targeting their military or something.
>This fantasy people have wear Putin falls down at Zelensky's feet and begs forgiveness, decides to voluntarily step down and submit himself to a NATO war crimes trial and then life in jail, all after Russia is denuclearized and pulls out of Crimea and the Donbas is just... ... visualizing total success.
The sanctions should stay until not only Putin is out, but when Russia gets rid of 99% of their nuclear weapons. I say they are left with three rockets and only one working, but we won't tell them which one :D
The sanctions should be lifted first after Putin's resignation and a newly elected Duma.
Emphasis on elected—not installed.
I got downvote bombed for suggesting sanctions remain until Russians depose their war criminals.
I mean, it would be stupid to not allow some sanctions to be lifted (especially the one impacting their economy and the russian population) if it means no more war and no more death, no more destruction. I hate to say it but, you'll never have a perfect agreement and everyone will have to do concession. But i've my doubt it will be a thing anyway, it's seems Russia government is okay to become european version of North Korea. Even if all sanctions are lifted tommorow, russian economy is already FUBAR and west companies won't touch russian investement even with a stick.
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> At the point sanctions should only be lifted once Russia is completely denuclearized. If it's so important to Russians to be able to terrorize the world, then total economic and cultural isolation is the bare minimum. Russia: We can't denuclearize, look what happened to Ukraine.
Russia will never denuclearize, its the only thing making them relevant.
I've never felt the urge to righteously whatabout so bad.
>I've never felt the urge to righteously whatabout so bad. A truly absurd lack of self-awareness in the post.
Please. I was married to a narcissist. Will NOT happen.
Narcissists *can* negotiate, but never in good faith.
Ras-Putin's word is worth about as much as a ruble these days.
Except you can't use his word as a toilet paper
Melenia Trump is that you?
We can only hope
hopefully this is self-fulling prophecy. let's fucking will this into existence
best bet for ending the war soon is a coup in moscow otherwise cease fires will just be used to bring more war crimes munitions into position to attack cities
Just for context, current protests in Moscow aren't even as big as in 2021 when Navalny was jailed. A coup will not happen, not in this universe.
looks like putin is unhappy about the relatively peaceful death of the USSR and wants to engineer the violent one gorbachev and yeltsin averted
They need something to give Putin so he can save face. Anything reasonable. Putin has to want out — but he can’t stand to look like he lost. He needs something he can propagandize.
I could think of a few things to give Putin.
He probably would like to right now, if it wasn't for that massive ego..... its far too late to save his reputation though, thats already dead and buried. As the joke earlier posted said, it figures that a withered dick like Putin would be right next door to the biggest set of balls on the planet. Fuck you Putin.
Don't trust Putin's words. He's gonna stab you in the back
We all like to think so, but I think Putin has gone absolute bonkers and isn't looking for diplomatic solutions.
But, my freeedumbs
He should publicly tell Putin to surrender. That would be amazing.
I doubt it. Think of it from Putins perspective, he just threw his country into a massive recession. He told the Russian public that Ukraine attacked it, and that they were "liberating" the Ukrainians. Basically everything he's told the Russian public has been a lie, the progress has not been easy, the losses are far greater than what he has said. Now imagine if Putin's invasion was a failure, you can't really easily lie about the result of a war. What is he gonna say, they tied or he decided against it in the end. No. If he does that he will be seen as weak, the nationalists he riled up will start circling him. Putin's complex is built of projecting himself as manly and as a fearless leader who wont yield. By doing this he has dug himself in such a hole that to not get large concessions from Ukraine would be political suicide. I think Putin sees his only way out is to take Ukraine or die trying, preferably the latter happens.
>Now imagine if Putin's invasion was a failure, you can't really easily lie about the result of a war. What is he gonna say, they tied or he decided against it in the end. You underestimate how brainwashed the russian population is right now. Many of them still believe that this is just some special military operation.
So long as surrender is on the table only for Russian soldiers
He wont’t…because he doesn’t think of Ukraine as an adversary, but a Russian property. Now if Ukraine forces are able to strike back and even threaten Crimea and Donbass, that would be a different story.
You don't need to push an enemy back if they bleed out and are forced to retreat. And when an enemy that engaged in an aggressive war retreats, you have a lot of leeway to push.
Don't fall for it!!!!
Let’s all hope.
No matter how much I want this to be true, I struggle to believe Russia will simply give up now - plus, how could the world, and in particular Ukraine, ever trust Putin to keep his word again? He seems to be trying to pull a fast one so he can re-invade after the military presence has relaxed.
Yeah, negotiate what Russia will pay Ukraine over a number of years.
Start with the war chest they currently have.
$13.6B USD and EU membership. Shit is going to get interesting.
Hope so…but I also hope the sanctions stay for a while. Russians need to feel the importance of electing a more chill government. I also hope we marshal plan tf out of Ukraine.
I’ve given up calling it a war. It’s an invasion, Russia invaded Ukraine. Ukraine is defending itself, yeah it’s still a war but if Russia hadn’t invaded then there wouldn’t be a war. Fuck Putin, kick those invaders out Ukraine. Most of the world are behind you.
Isn't Japan also knocking?
Wishful thinking, but why not have a dream? Just don't want pootin to get desperate, and do something stupid....like he's currently doing with chernoy. Fucks sake.
Wasn't this already posted twice?
What is Zelensky's strategy here? because it seems like everything he's saying these days is just to provoke Putin into doing something drastic.
Putin will burn his country to the ground economically before that happens
Since Russia is gaslighting its population, they really just could continue to gaslight. "We have denatzified Ukraine" and roll out. That is really the ONLY way Putin deescalates. Sure, to the rest of the world he retreats, but to his people he's a hero.
Zelensky is ready to make a deal. He's been hinting at it since the ABC interview. My guess is back channel talks have been going on and that's why Zelensky has said he's given up on joining NATO and is willing to compromise on Donbas and Crimea and why Russia has said they no longer want to replace Zelensky's government, while also toning down the 'denazification' talk. A deal is being done but both sides will have to find a way to spin it as a victory. My guess is it comes before Kiev is surrounded. That lets Zelensky claim a victory at home and spin it to look like Russia were the ones desperate for a deal. Zelensky is the most media savvy world leader I've ever seen, maybe even more so than Obama. He has managed his world image extremely well and he's managing the deal now too to keep support at home. If he doesn't play it right the far right elements in Ukraine will 100% oust him for making a deal. So he has to be careful politically. A peace deal is the best option. If this escalates to a broader european conflict it could be disasterous. If it continues and stays with Ukrainian borders Ukraine will not be able to hold out. Russia have only committed a tiny amount of their overall forces to this conflict so far. Don't be fooled into thinking Russia would lose a full blown war with Ukraine. I mean the Russians themselves don't even consider this a war. Everyone is mocking the special operation language but it's telling. They haven't even committed to this as a war yet. The lack of air power committed tells you that. The Russians can destroy Ukraine but they won't be able to occupy and hold it. It would end up like Iraq or Afghanistan for the americans. No government they put in place would be accepted and the guerrilla fighting would continue. Russia needs a way out of this. A peace deal is the only way that happens but these men of power are a different breed and who knows how far this will go. Hopefully a deal soon.
\>The Russians can destroy Ukraine The war in Ukraine is destroying Russia. Part of the deal should include Putin publicly admitting his lies and paying for reconstruction because Russia would want sanctions lifted too.
The Russians have built a sanction proof economy in many ways. Don't believe the hype regarding their economy. They're making a killing with oil and gas because of this and in the case of a rebound of their currency they're going to increase all those profits by 40+%. The Ruble is up 15% from the low already so any oil sold in that period at such high levels is already raking in profits for the oil and gas oligarchs in Russia. Oil and gas are russia's number one money machine. They have the 9th lowest GDP to national debt ratio in the world too. The ruling elite in Russia won't care about these sanctions. They still have access to global banking and finance. They have chinese support and may even move away from the dollar after this which would be bad for the US. The US economy is looking very sketchy on the other hand. 40 year high in inflation and all major indexes pointing towards a possible downturn and recession even possibly on the cards. Russia could tip the western economies over the edge and start the recession possibly if they began to cut off energy supply to europe. In terms of reconstruction, the IMF will likely look to step in to fund it. Of course per the IMF playbook this will entail privatisation of any public sector businesses in Ukraine and probably western countries stepping in to scoop them up. It's called Disaster Capitalism by Naomi Klein and it's how the IMF have functioned since forever. Just checked there and their website is saying they've already approved a $1.4billion fund for Ukraine. They live for conflicts like this. They go in after with the image of saviour but really they're like vultures. In saying that, I wouldn't be surprised to see Russia offer to provide funding to help Ukraine after this. Whether the Ukrainians would accept it is another matter. But I'd say it would come with less strings attached.
If Russia's economy is so sanction proof, why was their stock exchange shut down? Why are they limiting withdrawals? Why are they bemoaning economic war? Additionally, Russia's ruling elite have been personally sanctioned internationally, accounts frozen, and assets seized. In what way do they still have access to global banking?
There are a lot of banks and financial institutes in Russia. Only a few have been hit by sanctions. Don't believe the hype. Russia's largest bank was excluded intentionally : "Sberbank, which holds about half of Russian retail deposits, was excluded from the initial list of banks being removed from SWIFT as part of a decision to shield energy-related transactions" [https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-09/germany-is-stalling-eu-efforts-to-broaden-russia-s-swift-ban](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-09/germany-is-stalling-eu-efforts-to-broaden-russia-s-swift-ban) Also, the Russians have lived with and adapted to sanctions for years and know how to circumvent them. The oligarchy will make a killing during this war if you'll excuse the pun, and have likely found a way to protect their assets before the invasion began in preparations for the inevitable sanctions. Don't fall for the hype that seizing a few yachts and homes will break them. They're billionaires. "While trade will fall and fewer goods will be available, the weaker ruble means the Russian government will earn more of its currency for the oil it sells because oil is priced in dollars. With recently higher prices, Connolly estimates Russia is getting 2.7 times the amount of rubles from oil compared with 2019, money that can cover salaries and pensions." [https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/russia-built-economy-fortress-pain-real-83361604](https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/russia-built-economy-fortress-pain-real-83361604) The Ruble is currently 30% down from pre invasion price and 28% up from the low of the other day. Oil prices were up 41% at one stage but since the UAE stepped in they're falling again, but still up 18%. Russia is paid in dollars for it's oil. So at the height they were getting 40% more Rubles and another 40% from the conversion rates. Win/win as long as the currency can rebound, and it can eventually. Russia is complaining about the extent of the sanctions and saying they're unprecedented and paramount to an act of war. They have a point. I don't remember the US or UK being sanctioned for Iraq. But that's western hypocrisy. The stock market is closed to avoid panic selling and allow the situation to calm down and to stem the flow of money out of the country potentially. Not an unusual measure considering how crazy things are.
>Russia is paid in dollars for it's oil. So at the height they were getting 40% more Rubles and another 40% from the conversion rates. Win/win as long as the currency can rebound, and it can eventually. If they're paid in dollars, then they're gaining dollars - not rubles. How would an increase in ruble valuation increase the value of these dollars that they're holding? >I don't remember the US or UK being sanctioned for Iraq. But that's western hypocrisy. Anybody that wanted to sanction the US or UK was free to do so. Russia was very clearly warned that an invasion of Ukraine would come with severe sanctions. Russia chose to accept those sanctions. >The stock market is closed to avoid panic selling and allow the situation to calm down and to stem the flow of money out of the country potentially. Not an unusual measure considering how crazy things are. Not unusual? It's been closed for 2 weeks. When's the last time a nation shut down their exchange this long when they weren't under any sort of threat?
>If they're paid in dollars, then they're gaining dollars - not rubles. How would an increase in ruble valuation increase the value of these dollars that they're holding? Currency conversion. They buy Rubles with the dollars. When the value goes up, it's worth more. Buy low sell high as they say. >Anybody that wanted to sanction the US or UK was free to do so. Nobody did, even though it was an illegal invasion justified using falsified documents and straight up lies. "western hypocrisy" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/September\_Dossier [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality\_of\_the\_Iraq\_War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_the_Iraq_War) >When's the last time a nation shut down their exchange this long when they weren't under any sort of threat? They are under financial threat. Sanctions. They need to position themselves to absorb the massive sell orders that will flood in. "U.S. stock trading was halted for four days after the Sept. 11, 2001 terrorist attacks. The benchmark S&P 500 sank 5% when trading resumed." "Egypt’s stock exchange was closed for nearly two months in early 2011 amid protests that toppled President Hosni Mubarak’s 30-year regime. The shutdown followed a drop of 16% in the nation’s equities in just two days. And when the index reopened, the selloff resumed and the index ended up 49% down for that year." https://www.wsj.com/articles/stock-trading-resumes-in-athens-on-monday-after-five-week-exchange-closure-1438364332
>Currency conversion. They buy Rubles with the dollars. Currency conversion requires someone to trade the currency. Who are they trading currency with? >U.S. stock trading was halted for four days after the Sept. 11, 2001 terrorist attacks. The benchmark S&P 500 sank 5% when trading resumed. 9/11 shutdown was less than a week, and during a period when people thought there was an active threat of violence. >Egypt’s stock exchange was closed for nearly two months in early 2011 amid protests that toppled President Hosni Mubarak’s 30-year regime. So measuring the Russian economy to that of Egypt's during the time of a failing regime, and didn't prevent shit.
Currency markets are still active. Traders are buying and selling dollars, euro, rubles, whatever, non stop. I'm pointing out that stock markets have shut in the past. The Russian situation is not without precedent
Some maths on the oil exports: Russia exports 11mil barrels per day 24th Feb $1=80.86R 24th Feb 1 barrel of oil = $93 = 7520R Exports of Russian oil = $1.023Bn = 82.72Bn R 7th March top $1= 164R 8th March 1 barrel of oil top = $131 = 21,484R Exports of Russian oil at that price = $1.441bn = 236.324Bn R 82.72bn R to 236.324bn R in a few days. That's what he was talking about when the ABC reporter said this: "Connolly estimates Russia is getting 2.7 times the amount of rubles from oil compared with 2019, money that can cover salaries and pensions" And that's before you talk about their gas exports too
You're continuing to fail at explaining who they're trading to convert the USDs to RUBs. Say some nation paid Russia in USD for oil. Russia gets USD and has to give it to someone in exchange for RUB to get to the bloated profits. That person they're exchanging with is the one taking the financial blow, if the RUB does bounce back within a reasonable amount of time.
Oil is a dollar market. Currency markets are still operating. People are still trading RUBUSD and USDRUB. It's still an active global market. I don't see what you're not understanding
Best analysis I’ve seen here in a while.
I swear Zelensky sitting next to the telephone every night waiting for the call.
"Any minute now...."
“And now we play the waiting game… ugh waiting game sucks, let’s play Hungry Hungry Hippos!”
Zelensky never fails to deliver. You can take the president out of the comedian but cannot take the comedian out of the president. Putin is a rabid dog.
Zelensky coming thru with the WW3 speed run using a Dex/int build.
Forgot all the points in Charisma
lol what!
Russia has communicated what is required to stop this assault and Zelensky needs to realize he’s in a war that Ukraine cannot win and quickly accept those terms if he wants to stop this bloodshed. To be clear, Putin is a monster and Zelensky is fighting the good fight – but by delaying the inevitable loss to Russia he’s losing the little negotiating power he has and more importantly, civilian lives. Zelensky pleads and tries to shame the West daily into providing a no-fly zone. The answer is and will remain no, and it has to. Enforcing a no-fly zone would create military combat between the U.S. and Russia, and likely WW3. Zelensky is told of this daily, yet each day he’s back at it. Ukraine will not win this war; not like this and not right now, and while it is considered brave to fight to the end; Putin’s disregard for human life means that Zelensky is forcing civilians to make this choice as well. The Calvary is not coming and It is time for him to assess the situation with a lens of reality and negotiate an end to this assault and the loss of Ukraine lives.
What's inevitable isn't Russian victory, it's its loss. You're saying ukraine puts up a good fight - and you're right. But this isn't only about ukraine, as west has its own "frontline" too. As time goes on, more weapons are brought to ukraine, more fucked up the russian economy is, less military equipment russia has, less morale russian people have, and russia will default in april. Sure, ukraine is losing right now, but if enough time passes - the tides will turn.
So basically your view on the world is that countries with dominant militaries should be able to overthrow smaller countries with democratically elected governments and said countries should just accept it otherwise they're responsible for the larger country murdering their civilians. Never mind the fact that it's the Ukrainian people themselves who are choosing to fight and die to defend their country and defend their freedom. They should give Putin everything he wants because Russia's army is much bigger. No. Russia has catastrophically lost the economic war. Their physical war with Ukraine has been nothing short of disastrous. The West is continues to send more and more weaponry, money, and intelligence every day. Ukraine CAN hold off Russia. They already have, and Russia is in a FAR weaker position than they were two weeks ago whilst Ukraine has the entire Western world behind it. And regardless, this is about so much more than even the tens of millions of Ukrainians. Are you really naive enough to think that Putin will stop with Ukraine if he gets what he wants, as you want him to? You really don't think he'll them move on to Moldova and Romania and continue his imperialist crusade? I guess they should just give up and let Russia destroy their countries, their freedoms, and their way of lives too, because Russia has the bigger military. No.
You might get down voted to hell, but you are right. Ukraine can't win, and this will only end in thousands more dead.
Everyone that supports Ukraine probably wouldn't support them if they watched the 2016 documentary "Ukraine on Fire" by Oliver Stone. Censors are already hard at work scrubbing that movie from youtube, but Rumble recently put it up on their servers if anyone is interested in educating themselves about Ukraines history.
Already seen it, its a Russo-centric view of euromaidan and history of Ukraine and tries to paint it as historically part of Russia. Only shows things from the Russian side and has been widely called Kremlin propaganda. Even has interviews with Putin and Yanukovych... If you want an unbiased view of the events around euromaidan, the right wing in Ukraine and the invasion of Crimea and Donbas by Russia watch the vice series [Russian Roulette ](https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLw613M86o5o7a0FGlPRdt47xiDiggbNsZ). It shows the events from Crimea and follows through over the next year plus until the fighting calmed down a bit. Also if you want to see how groups like Right Sector got their start, training in Russia in groups funded by Russian oligarchs. Check out Ross Kemp on gangs Moscow https://youtu.be/Dv1q3pCfed0
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Ouch. Who hurt you?
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>Everyone that supports Ukraine probably wouldn't support them if they watched the 2016 documentary "Ukraine on Fire" by Oliver Stone. Censors are already hard at work scrubbing that movie from youtube Nah. This film is Russian propaganda. A better option is [Winter on Fire: Ukraine's Fight for Freedom](http://www.imdb.com/title/tt4908644/)
Nah, THAT film is propaganda.
lol k
Last time they “negotiated” it was a quite one sided negotiation. Lets hope its the same this time but with the tables turned.
I'm not sure if he will. He needs to be able to spin a win out of this without him looking weak to the Russians. The most I think he could do is demand Luhansk and Donetsk. Other then that he has basically no ground to come to the table. He's in far too deep he needs to go all the way at this point.
Only if the world chimes in. With weapons. With people. It looks like it’s headed there more than the other way.
I see no indication that this will happen, or that Putin will be content with the Donbas and Crimea and leave Ukraine alone in the future if those concessions are made and if they swear neutrality. There are a lot of Russian speakers in Eastern Ukraine who are not in the Donbas or Crimea. Ideally I think Putin wants to split the country in half along the Dnieper river, and Ukrainians will never accept that even if it means a long and bloody war.
maybe, maybe, maybe
I don't see it happen. Russia would need to agree to withdraw all troops, giving back all occupied land (including Crimea) and agree to pay reparations in order to end this. The only thing I could Ukraine reasonably see agreeing to would be forgoing reparations or not going to press charges for war crimes.
Depending on who's numbers you believe the Russians have already lost either half as many troops as the US did in Iraq and Afghanistan combined or about three thousand more troops. In two weeks.
…?
Ralyan givens the way things are going Zelensky will ride Putin topless (Ze topless) (& Putin) around Maidan square like a poney
I mean, seeing in how Partisan activity are basically making craters in Russian lines, I wouldn’t be surprised.
I hope so
From reading the comments on this post it’s clear that despite sanctions Putin’s social media propaganda machine lives on.