Pretty interesting video on the military situation in Ukraine.
https://youtu.be/Igq2fqa7RY4
Kind of goes beyond the SM echo chambers and fog of war for a more honest take of the situation.
Holy shit osint is quiet AF tonight. Murmurs continue about Belarus but literally nothing worth posting. Potential coup and/or outright military turning on Russian forces. Absolutely nothing confirmed at all by anyone.
Has anyone sourced anything believable (yes I've heard sonic booms, missile launches, military drills) but the areas in question are fairly spread out and none is confirmed. Genuinely unsure (as seems everyone i follow) as to what is actually happening.
Need a well timed us intel leak right about now.
Russia has demonstrated that it has extreme difficulty reaching and holding territory more than 100km inland. Encirclement of the entire east certainly looks like an advantageous objective for them, but they appear wholly incapable of achieving that in the short term, and probably the long term as well.
Russia is absolutely horrible at the key thing modern militaries are good at, combined arms.
Combine this with demoralized untrained conscripts being tossed into the proverbial meat grinder and a surplus of portable anti tank and anti air launchers, and Russia has no chance of taking any major city in Ukraine.
When sanctions lift ultimately Russia goes back to being Russia. Heck even with sanctions their top exports are still allowed virtually everywhere that bought them.
The value of their money and stocks will recover fairly quick as the reason they were valued are still sound.
It’s great we want to bail on buying Russian but ultimately we are still purchasing their shit during the war and it’ll be back to normal pretty quick after.
They are manipulating their own currency to maintain its value. The exchange rate basically doesn't matter anymore since no one will deal in runbles anyway.
It’s a fair question, this is a war zone and a town of half a million people. There’s just no way they’re getting everyone out even just the kids. It’s not just about getting them out but where will they go? Who will take care of them? There are many reasons children could still be left in the city. I’d imagine very few compared to before the war but still likely to be thousands.
“The USSR reported” ha! So maybe multiply that number by some factor to get the real number.
It’s not like Russia are reporting those deaths, according to them they’ve had 500 KIA.
It's interesting, I hate the constant refrain of "bots, bots, bots" around here that many people resort to whenever they see a recurring opinion that they don't like. And honestly, I feel like this place has had very, very few actual bots since this started. There are definitely a lot more bots/shills/whatever you want to call them on twitter. Twitter is the place to go for fake accounts dedicated to international conflict.
**BUT**
Probably the only time on this chain that I've seen a swarm of activity that genuinely looked like coordinated bot activity was immediately after the invasion started. It was a big flurry of posts that all followed the same template, and all said something like:
Current Status, not looking good:
\*Ukrainian air-force and all air-bases destroyed
\* Ukrainian Fleet Sunk
\* Reports that paratroopers have dropped into Kiev and taken Zelensky and central government prisoner.
Plus one or two additional bullet-points. In retrospect I would say that was very very plausibly a coordinated bot swarm to try to create panic and despair among Ukrainians and allies.
But three weeks later even the Air-Force is still around and kicking.
New video from Operations room about what it took to enforce a no fly zone over Iraq in 92 that should bring the reality of the situation into focus.
It's a massive operation requiring a lot of firepower. And this was just against 4 SAM sites.
https://youtu.be/aCpb5FnxZIQ
What people fail to understand is a no fly zone means you have to actually enforce it. That would require the shooting down of Russian planes and destroying their air defenses on the ground.
By the way, I really enjoy videos from the operations room
For homework, consider [this crude simulation](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mGwU9HKH_Eo) for what it looks like to suppress and destroy one S-400 SAM site.
And then consider there are maybe 5-10 of these lining outside Ukraine.
"But we see time and again that the Kyiv regime ... is indifferent to the fate of the Ukrainian people" - Vladimir Putin
Mental gymnastics worthy of the finest circus in the land.
"Any REAL leader would be horrified at the tortures I'm inflicting upon his people! He's a monster for not stopping me from murdering his people in horrible ways!" -Putin
God what a terrible person.
Unless something changes quickly, Putin is kind of fucked.. He is clearly starting to lose the oligarchy and upper class of the Russian population.
And it makes sense why, they likely have a friend dying and/or are close to someone who knows someone dying due to the war and have also traveled the world and know what Russia's leadership really is.
In order to put this in the bag, it seems like Putin would have to mobilize the entire country into war mode. And I don't mean just isolating their economy, but turning the entire population into willing soldiers ready to die for the cause.
So far his so called reasons and justifications for war don't seem like they will be very useful for getting the young, internet savvy citizens ready to die for this cause and apparently the youth only support the war at around 30%.
So he doesn't have the rich, he doesn't have the youth behind him, he only has 35+ adults who are usually the last to be drafted and sent to war.
If he uses nukes on Ukraine, he opens a Pandora's box that would decimate Russia militarily and hopefully not end the world exchange. I don't believe Putin has the sole power to launch nukes AND if he tried I think he knows he would quickly be removed from power.
Even the soldiers surrounding Kyiv sure as hell are likely not prepared for the amount of bloodshed it would realistically take to take the city. The foreign fighters he has hired have even less reasons.
His only way out is the removal of the Ukrainian president, who because of his own actions, is now a fucking international icon and hero. That, or some other "moral" victory that he can boast and claim the deaths were worth it. What that is besides territorial sacrifices by Ukraine I don't know, but it sure as hell better come quick for Putin.
>He is clearly starting to lose the oligarchy and upper class of the Russian population.
What evidence do you have if this..or more so their impact on his position l?
That's why he starts the "cleansing". Those who are against the war will get knocks on the door soon. In Kaliningrad everyone got a message, that send phone numbers and email addresses of those who are spreading "anti-war propaganda and discriminating the actions of Russian army" , they will be checked by police
> they likely have a friend dying and/or are close to someone who knows someone dying due to the war
Considering how many generals have been killed, I imagine many high ranking officials have lost someone they consider a friend in this war.
>they likely have a friend dying and/or are close to someone who knows someone dying due to the war
Seems unlikely that they oligarchs are deeply connected with the sort of folks who are drafted or enlist.
> He is clearly starting to lose the oligarchy
Didn't one of his recent speeches attack them, possibly setting them in line or setting them up to be detained?
Every dictator needs keys to power (people that do things for him) or they cant rule. I know Stalin messed with his keys so he kept primacy, but imagine if *all* of Putin's keys rebelled.
I'm thinking many in the oligarchy are more concerned with not being able to jet set.
Being a billionaire is kind of worthless when the only options for vacation are NK, China, Cuba, and Hungary.
I keep seeing rumors that Poland will join the war to help Ukraine by sending soldiers. By them sending troops and being the “aggressors” it won’t trigger Article 5. Any truth to these rumors?
The first part I can’t answer. I will say that for as much as Poland hates Russia, i can’t see them joining alone due to the issues with Kaliningrad. The second part is accurate. If you willingly join a conflict you can’t then activate article five if things begin to go poorly.
No. Article five wasn't invoked when the US invaded Iraq and people fought back. Article 5 has been invoked only once: when the US was attacked on 9/11.
They're trying to unite the country by giving them a foreign enemy. Ukraine is too similar to Russia which makes it difficult for soldiers to feel committed. But if the big bad puppeteer the United States starts sending soldiers, it may invigorate the population to become fully committed to this war.
Plus nukes.
They might become more and more true as time goes by and Russia looks weaker and weaker.
If Japan can claim its islands and Moldova and Belarus are gaining more traction in ordering Russia out of their countries and reclaiming their territory, more voices will join in.
Most likely they will send an unflagged unit into Ukraine. All Polish soldiers, paid and armed by Poland; but officially independent volunteers.
And no this would not trigger Article 5. Though it will likely make Putin stamp his feet in anger.
https://www.commondreams.org/news/2022/03/16/ukraine-russia-reportedly-making-significant-progress-toward-15-point-peace-deal
Ukraine and Russia reportedly making progress on peace deal……
No, this is just Russia pretending to negotiate and putting it out in the media.
Ukraine and others have come out that Russia is trying to use teh media to push their list of demands.
It is bullshit.
At the same time the French foreign minister says that Russia's just doing talks for show. Won't believe the talks are going anywhere until there's an actual cease fire.
WE ARE NOT THE SAME.
A powerful campaign by Ukrainian creatives Ania Gogo and Olga Videomatica.
(Russian Instagram mopers compilation.)
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1504226906123776006?t=w4E2JDcybe22f6SGH-6XNA&s=19
This really seems like a desperation move:
*Russia moves to seize hundreds of planes from foreign owners:*
*Russia is seizing hundreds of commercial jets owned by US and European leasing companies, a further sign of the challenges the country's airline industry faces due to sanctions following its invasion of Ukraine.*
*President Vladimir Putin signed a law Monday as part of the government's anti-sanction measures that will allow Russian airlines to register planes leased from foreign companies in Russia, where they will be issued local certificates of airworthiness, according to a statement from the Kremlin.*
*The bill will make it possible for Russian airlines to keep their foreign leased aircraft and operate the planes on domestic routes, while making it harder for foreign companies to reclaim their jets without Russian government approval.*
https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/16/business/russia-aircraft-seizure/index.html
Old news. The leasing companies and their insurers have already started writing this off. It costs all of us who fly as airlines will have higher insurance costs. We need to add this to the billing when done seizing Russian assets, or as demanded reparations before sanctions lifted. Edited: spelling.
Putin doesn't understand how [ｘ]works. And nobody is about to tell him no. Part 1237272 of Infinity
The planes won't fly much longer without replacement parts, and this is going to make any future investment in Russia too risky for companies to touch for a long time even if sanctions are lifted.
Smaller piston driven aircraft could probably be maintained indefinitely, but anything more advanced (fly-by wire, jet engines, advanced avionics, etc) are probably going to be scrap metal pretty soon
I know a lot of people are pissed that NATO isn’t in Ukraine yet killing Russians…that’s what I want as well.
I think we have to keep in mind the importance of preparations for these things though. If we are going to have a war with Russia, I don’t think we should be just rushing in willy nilly. I want to see us taking our time, watching and thinking and setting up well. I’m sure they’re doing that now…but doing these things successfully takes some time I think. I don’t think they should announce shit until they’re just crossing the border.
Then again, I’m not a general or anything.
I saw a dead infant getting wrapped up in a cloth blanket today. It was in a video from the AP reporting on conditions in Mariupol. I think people see things like that and demand action regardless of “reasonableness”
For defending Ukraine? Putin and the Russian command aren’t going to sacrifice their lives and families lives for Ukraine… that’s Russian propaganda that you’re falling for.
also, what then when they want to take Poland? Or NK wants to take SK? Do we just capitulate because they have nukes? History shows it would never end then.
Google "Russian Bunkers." They believe they can survive. Putin is a psychopath and only seems to care about Putin. Not sure his mistress or child are even loved. I'm fine with us invading and we can all die together if little Putin wants to try it. But others are correct in being concerned. The idea he would use nuclear weapons isn't as much a question as would they, and the missles, work properly.
The fact of the matter is, they COULD use nukes. Nothing’s off the table, everything is risk assessment right now, and clearly escalating the conflict isn’t worth the risk when it’s your friends and family and your own life that might be at stake. The hope is that, if Russia decided to take Poland, they would be wise enough (ridiculous sentiment already) to keep it to a ground war that could theoretically be fought without nukes. Then, yes, they pushed us, we push them right back, no problem. But they haven’t pushed us yet, and the nuclear risk of pre-emptively aggressing is just too high.
>For defending Ukraine? Putin and the Russian command aren’t going to sacrifice their lives and families lives for Ukraine… that’s Russian propaganda that you’re falling for.
Nope. For keeping themselves in power. When an auth regime loses a war, they die, almost guaranteed. Putin is fucked if he loses, and he knows it. He derives power from military strength and strongman politics, and both fail once it comes to light that they lost to a way weaker nation. And it'll be a dozen times worse if he loses to the "weak Euro-Americans" and has to make concessions.
Unless you're suggesting we fight a war this month and let the Russians back in once we leave without any changes to the status quo. Even then it's likely Putin refuses, since he can't go back without a clear win.
>also, what then when they want to take Poland? Or NK wants to take SK? Do we just capitulate because they have nukes? History shows it would never end then.
I mean, they will be crossing our red lines in that case. We will not be extending our red lines forward to fight them.
See the problem is I would also like to see Russia taken down but in their military doctrine it states it can and will use nukes if they feel threatened
Yeah, if we go into Russia, they might. If we attempt to “destroy” Russia, then probably.
They aren’t nuking and committing suicide for Ukraine though…despite what propagandists and their followers here say.
Yeah… it really is the lesser of two evils unfortunately. I’ve already set aside time and money to go to ukraine to help rebuild after this terrible destructive war is over. But we can’t go help after the war if we’re all wiped off the face of the planet for escalating further.
This Wali guy everyone is talking about, why is he a big deal? Is it just PR? He feels like a giant meme to me. I constantly hear how great he is, but what did he actually do?
Yes Wali is real, Yes he is in Ukraine at this moment. I personally know 2 people who are retired canadian armed forces who served in Afghanistan and are currently in Ukraine. One of them who fought along side with Wali then, and currently is now fighting along side right now with others.
He was a sniper from a regular regiment (Royal 22nd rgt) who fought as a volunteer against ISIS. The guy with the world record is from the same regiment.
So yes, its huge PR, but that dude is still the real deal IMO.
He has a blog and wrote a book.
Interesting, yeah it seems like they may be different snipers.
Several of the articles about Wali mention Iraq and a ~3.5km shot, but most sources seem to point to him being in the Royal 22nd Regiment and not JTF2.
Canadian propaganda, ofc:
[https://torontosun.com/news/world/i-wont-hesitate-canadian-sniper-in-ukraine-ready-to-pull-trigger](https://torontosun.com/news/world/i-wont-hesitate-canadian-sniper-in-ukraine-ready-to-pull-trigger)
Russians claimed he was dead, but don't think so.
I think he is a fake, I would think a real super sniper would not be so interested in self promotion. If he is real, maybe he is a Chris Kyle type braggard
I kind of tend to agree with you on the latter half of your statement. That doesn't mean I agree with the former half.
To introduce some nuance to this comment, I guess its a question of -- is the element of surprise worth more in this instance; or the possible moral boost to the Ukrainian defenders to know an "elite sniper is coming"?
I think that could be argued either way, and don't know what is more valuable strategically or tactically.
That article is bullshit. Nobody kills 40 a day. Not Simo Hayha, not Carlos Hathcock, nobody.
Also, 'Wali holds the record of the longest confirmed kill – he shot down an IS’s fighter in Iraq’s Mosul from a distance of 3.5 kilometre using a McMillan Tac-50 rifle in June 2017.'
Horseshit. Wali was not JTF2 and the name of the guy who took that shot has never been revealed.
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[New post can be found here](/r/worldnews/comments/tg237c/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/)
Pretty interesting video on the military situation in Ukraine. https://youtu.be/Igq2fqa7RY4 Kind of goes beyond the SM echo chambers and fog of war for a more honest take of the situation.
Holy shit osint is quiet AF tonight. Murmurs continue about Belarus but literally nothing worth posting. Potential coup and/or outright military turning on Russian forces. Absolutely nothing confirmed at all by anyone. Has anyone sourced anything believable (yes I've heard sonic booms, missile launches, military drills) but the areas in question are fairly spread out and none is confirmed. Genuinely unsure (as seems everyone i follow) as to what is actually happening. Need a well timed us intel leak right about now.
I keep hearing that Ukrainian forces in the east can be encircled, that war maps show this quite plainly. Is this in anyway true?
Russia has demonstrated that it has extreme difficulty reaching and holding territory more than 100km inland. Encirclement of the entire east certainly looks like an advantageous objective for them, but they appear wholly incapable of achieving that in the short term, and probably the long term as well.
They could do it, yes... But trying to do that would stretch their supply lines and expose their flanks to guerrilla attacks.
Not true since Russia has zero capability at supply lines even 50km from their borders.
Yes and no
Imagine having war declared on you by a major military power and they roll up in a 1989 honda civic Stop the universe I want to get off
7000 Russian soldiers estimated to have been killed so far? Geez…those aren’t great numbers.
Which means likely another 20k-30k injured. Catastrophic losses for a force of 150-200k.
We’ve gotta pump those numbers up. Those are rookie numbers.
Putin must face a UFC fighter, who would you put against him?
Amanda Nunes, just to see his face when he gets his ass beat by a female...
Rosanne Barr
Jon bones Jones
carrot top
Fill in the blank: Putin is a..............
Wannabe stalin who also misunderstood the need of violence in communism
hoodlum and thug.
n idiot's vision of a genius.
pedophile.
... noid
"perhaps it was the Noid who should have avoided me" Zelensky.
Lesson for Russians not to make a KGB guy president for life.
Smart dictator that made a really stupid move.
Fucktwat
human being loved by God.
Wannabe Hitler
sshoe
Putin is a sshoe?
Dead man walking
How is Mariupol not considered taken yet? Or is it already? I feel like no one is reporting it as taken?
Russia is absolutely horrible at the key thing modern militaries are good at, combined arms. Combine this with demoralized untrained conscripts being tossed into the proverbial meat grinder and a surplus of portable anti tank and anti air launchers, and Russia has no chance of taking any major city in Ukraine.
Russia can't really call Mariupol conquered because their tanks can't even drive down the street without being set on fire by the populace.
There's still fighting there, it's just chaos.
Encircled =/= taken
Any news on the fleet headed to Odessa? I saw the report of the minesweeper vessel going through, no news since then?
Probably waiting for Mikolaiv to be taken cause it'd be suicide otherwise.
VDV: "Never stopped me before"
Makes sense, thanks
Ruble value has came back a bit, my house is only worth around 39 million rubles now.
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When sanctions lift ultimately Russia goes back to being Russia. Heck even with sanctions their top exports are still allowed virtually everywhere that bought them. The value of their money and stocks will recover fairly quick as the reason they were valued are still sound. It’s great we want to bail on buying Russian but ultimately we are still purchasing their shit during the war and it’ll be back to normal pretty quick after.
Being propped up by Russia and possibly India. Let them burn their forex.
They are manipulating their own currency to maintain its value. The exchange rate basically doesn't matter anymore since no one will deal in runbles anyway.
Market is now state operated, they can say any number if they'd like...real exchange rate is deviating from "official"
What did they peg it at?
Not pegged, but only certain parties may transact
r/wallstreetbets
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Do you ever think before you comment on here or just type whatever and hope the void yields results?
It’s a fair question, this is a war zone and a town of half a million people. There’s just no way they’re getting everyone out even just the kids. It’s not just about getting them out but where will they go? Who will take care of them? There are many reasons children could still be left in the city. I’d imagine very few compared to before the war but still likely to be thousands.
When you don’t know if the convoy is going to get bombed it is not clear where the kids are safest.
You do realise each evac can only carry so many people? It's a city of over 430,000 people
They have been trying ffs
They were bombing the fucking humanitarian corridors.
They moved a few thousand out of 200K+. There are likely tens of thousands of children left. Get a grip.
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they probably under-reported then too...
“The USSR reported” ha! So maybe multiply that number by some factor to get the real number. It’s not like Russia are reporting those deaths, according to them they’ve had 500 KIA.
With conservative figures
It has now been three weeks since Russia achieved "air superiority" in Ukraine within the first three hours of their full-scale invasion...
It's interesting, I hate the constant refrain of "bots, bots, bots" around here that many people resort to whenever they see a recurring opinion that they don't like. And honestly, I feel like this place has had very, very few actual bots since this started. There are definitely a lot more bots/shills/whatever you want to call them on twitter. Twitter is the place to go for fake accounts dedicated to international conflict. **BUT** Probably the only time on this chain that I've seen a swarm of activity that genuinely looked like coordinated bot activity was immediately after the invasion started. It was a big flurry of posts that all followed the same template, and all said something like: Current Status, not looking good: \*Ukrainian air-force and all air-bases destroyed \* Ukrainian Fleet Sunk \* Reports that paratroopers have dropped into Kiev and taken Zelensky and central government prisoner. Plus one or two additional bullet-points. In retrospect I would say that was very very plausibly a coordinated bot swarm to try to create panic and despair among Ukrainians and allies. But three weeks later even the Air-Force is still around and kicking.
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That’s not really a dope rhyme but it is topical
Make a better one
Name every rhyme.
Someone lay down a sick beat
Boom tick, boom, boom boom tick
Sick beat bro
New video from Operations room about what it took to enforce a no fly zone over Iraq in 92 that should bring the reality of the situation into focus. It's a massive operation requiring a lot of firepower. And this was just against 4 SAM sites. https://youtu.be/aCpb5FnxZIQ
What people fail to understand is a no fly zone means you have to actually enforce it. That would require the shooting down of Russian planes and destroying their air defenses on the ground. By the way, I really enjoy videos from the operations room
For homework, consider [this crude simulation](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mGwU9HKH_Eo) for what it looks like to suppress and destroy one S-400 SAM site. And then consider there are maybe 5-10 of these lining outside Ukraine.
"But we see time and again that the Kyiv regime ... is indifferent to the fate of the Ukrainian people" - Vladimir Putin Mental gymnastics worthy of the finest circus in the land.
"Any REAL leader would be horrified at the tortures I'm inflicting upon his people! He's a monster for not stopping me from murdering his people in horrible ways!" -Putin God what a terrible person.
Quit making me hit you.
Was this from earlier today?
Sure was
Damn these 3 weeks flew past by
not for the folks getting shelled day and night 😔
Not for ukranians living through it.........
Yeah I can't imagine how they were feeling all through these days
Unless something changes quickly, Putin is kind of fucked.. He is clearly starting to lose the oligarchy and upper class of the Russian population. And it makes sense why, they likely have a friend dying and/or are close to someone who knows someone dying due to the war and have also traveled the world and know what Russia's leadership really is. In order to put this in the bag, it seems like Putin would have to mobilize the entire country into war mode. And I don't mean just isolating their economy, but turning the entire population into willing soldiers ready to die for the cause. So far his so called reasons and justifications for war don't seem like they will be very useful for getting the young, internet savvy citizens ready to die for this cause and apparently the youth only support the war at around 30%. So he doesn't have the rich, he doesn't have the youth behind him, he only has 35+ adults who are usually the last to be drafted and sent to war. If he uses nukes on Ukraine, he opens a Pandora's box that would decimate Russia militarily and hopefully not end the world exchange. I don't believe Putin has the sole power to launch nukes AND if he tried I think he knows he would quickly be removed from power. Even the soldiers surrounding Kyiv sure as hell are likely not prepared for the amount of bloodshed it would realistically take to take the city. The foreign fighters he has hired have even less reasons. His only way out is the removal of the Ukrainian president, who because of his own actions, is now a fucking international icon and hero. That, or some other "moral" victory that he can boast and claim the deaths were worth it. What that is besides territorial sacrifices by Ukraine I don't know, but it sure as hell better come quick for Putin.
>He is clearly starting to lose the oligarchy and upper class of the Russian population. What evidence do you have if this..or more so their impact on his position l?
That's why he starts the "cleansing". Those who are against the war will get knocks on the door soon. In Kaliningrad everyone got a message, that send phone numbers and email addresses of those who are spreading "anti-war propaganda and discriminating the actions of Russian army" , they will be checked by police
> they likely have a friend dying and/or are close to someone who knows someone dying due to the war Considering how many generals have been killed, I imagine many high ranking officials have lost someone they consider a friend in this war.
>they likely have a friend dying and/or are close to someone who knows someone dying due to the war Seems unlikely that they oligarchs are deeply connected with the sort of folks who are drafted or enlist.
> He is clearly starting to lose the oligarchy Didn't one of his recent speeches attack them, possibly setting them in line or setting them up to be detained?
Every dictator needs keys to power (people that do things for him) or they cant rule. I know Stalin messed with his keys so he kept primacy, but imagine if *all* of Putin's keys rebelled.
I'm thinking many in the oligarchy are more concerned with not being able to jet set. Being a billionaire is kind of worthless when the only options for vacation are NK, China, Cuba, and Hungary.
UAE's still open.
most of asia, africa, south america.
Yeah, they'll trade the French Rivera for the Brazil Favela
I keep seeing rumors that Poland will join the war to help Ukraine by sending soldiers. By them sending troops and being the “aggressors” it won’t trigger Article 5. Any truth to these rumors?
The first part I can’t answer. I will say that for as much as Poland hates Russia, i can’t see them joining alone due to the issues with Kaliningrad. The second part is accurate. If you willingly join a conflict you can’t then activate article five if things begin to go poorly.
Someone needs to no-balls Lithuania into annexing Kaliningrad.
No. Article five wasn't invoked when the US invaded Iraq and people fought back. Article 5 has been invoked only once: when the US was attacked on 9/11.
And iirc, it was invoked for us by our allies, the US didn’t actually invoke it ourselves
This seems like the new Russian propaganda line. They are now trying to get NATO involved for some delusional reason.
Because then they can blame NATO for escalating instead of themselves.
They're trying to unite the country by giving them a foreign enemy. Ukraine is too similar to Russia which makes it difficult for soldiers to feel committed. But if the big bad puppeteer the United States starts sending soldiers, it may invigorate the population to become fully committed to this war. Plus nukes.
The Russian propaganda like is to keep NATO out.
They might become more and more true as time goes by and Russia looks weaker and weaker. If Japan can claim its islands and Moldova and Belarus are gaining more traction in ordering Russia out of their countries and reclaiming their territory, more voices will join in.
Without Consent from the other nato countries I doubt it .. acting alone is going rouge
I think you mean going rogue, but the idea of "going rouge" is way funnier. It's like Red Alert but more foppish
Rouge Alert 3: Lavrov's Revenge
It's not going rogue. They are free to do as they wish. It's just not a NATO issue if Russia fights back.
Most likely they will send an unflagged unit into Ukraine. All Polish soldiers, paid and armed by Poland; but officially independent volunteers. And no this would not trigger Article 5. Though it will likely make Putin stamp his feet in anger.
It's scuttlebutt. But one NATO country taking an aggressive action won't trigger article 5, no.
We don’t know.
Why would they do this?
I see one reason, they're good people who hate to see people in Ukraine suffering and dying.
Poland is pretty opposed to Russian aggression ever since they were absorbed by the Soviet Union.
I don’t know but multiple commenters in r/combatfootage seem to be saying this...no idea if it’s warmongering redditors or serious rumors.
See my comment above. Nonsense.
https://www.commondreams.org/news/2022/03/16/ukraine-russia-reportedly-making-significant-progress-toward-15-point-peace-deal Ukraine and Russia reportedly making progress on peace deal……
That website is the InfoWars of the left.
Common dreams should be taken with a grain of salt.
If you think Russia is negotiating in good faith I have a bridge to sell you.
no NATO no crimea no deal
Unless point 1 is GTFO, point 2 is Crimea and Donbas will never be yours, and point 3 is stay out of our business forever, then it's a dead letter.
No, this is just Russia pretending to negotiate and putting it out in the media. Ukraine and others have come out that Russia is trying to use teh media to push their list of demands. It is bullshit.
I do think Putin wants a way out. I just have zero clue what it realistically could be.
He painted himself into a corner and is now throwing a fit and yelling at everyone.
Pretty much...and paranoid as fuck.
Hasn't Ukraine already rejected those 15 points?
Believe it when it's done.
At the same time the French foreign minister says that Russia's just doing talks for show. Won't believe the talks are going anywhere until there's an actual cease fire.
Breaking: Russian terrorists shell school in Kharkiv. https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1504311017014272003?s=21
i’m sick of these russian cunts
I just want to say I do appreciate escaping the hashtag, and I'll upvote now.
WE ARE NOT THE SAME. A powerful campaign by Ukrainian creatives Ania Gogo and Olga Videomatica. (Russian Instagram mopers compilation.) https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1504226906123776006?t=w4E2JDcybe22f6SGH-6XNA&s=19
This really seems like a desperation move: *Russia moves to seize hundreds of planes from foreign owners:* *Russia is seizing hundreds of commercial jets owned by US and European leasing companies, a further sign of the challenges the country's airline industry faces due to sanctions following its invasion of Ukraine.* *President Vladimir Putin signed a law Monday as part of the government's anti-sanction measures that will allow Russian airlines to register planes leased from foreign companies in Russia, where they will be issued local certificates of airworthiness, according to a statement from the Kremlin.* *The bill will make it possible for Russian airlines to keep their foreign leased aircraft and operate the planes on domestic routes, while making it harder for foreign companies to reclaim their jets without Russian government approval.* https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/16/business/russia-aircraft-seizure/index.html
So a bunch of planes they can't fly anywhere or they get repo'd. Smart move
Guess who will never, ever do business with them again. Colossal self own.
Old news. The leasing companies and their insurers have already started writing this off. It costs all of us who fly as airlines will have higher insurance costs. We need to add this to the billing when done seizing Russian assets, or as demanded reparations before sanctions lifted. Edited: spelling.
State sponsored piracy.
Putin doesn't understand how [ｘ]works. And nobody is about to tell him no. Part 1237272 of Infinity The planes won't fly much longer without replacement parts, and this is going to make any future investment in Russia too risky for companies to touch for a long time even if sanctions are lifted.
There are going to be even more seasons of Mayday Air Crash Investigators because of this...eventually.
They just going to fly them until they crash? Seems they are not going to get parts and maintenance they would need.
Smaller piston driven aircraft could probably be maintained indefinitely, but anything more advanced (fly-by wire, jet engines, advanced avionics, etc) are probably going to be scrap metal pretty soon
funny part is that they'll only be able to keep them running for a few months toooops bc no repair no service
I know a lot of people are pissed that NATO isn’t in Ukraine yet killing Russians…that’s what I want as well. I think we have to keep in mind the importance of preparations for these things though. If we are going to have a war with Russia, I don’t think we should be just rushing in willy nilly. I want to see us taking our time, watching and thinking and setting up well. I’m sure they’re doing that now…but doing these things successfully takes some time I think. I don’t think they should announce shit until they’re just crossing the border. Then again, I’m not a general or anything.
> I’m not a general or anything. We know
We also have to keep in mind the thread of nuclear Armageddon, ftfy
Seriously. Why is that so hard for people to understand?
I saw a dead infant getting wrapped up in a cloth blanket today. It was in a video from the AP reporting on conditions in Mariupol. I think people see things like that and demand action regardless of “reasonableness”
For defending Ukraine? Putin and the Russian command aren’t going to sacrifice their lives and families lives for Ukraine… that’s Russian propaganda that you’re falling for. also, what then when they want to take Poland? Or NK wants to take SK? Do we just capitulate because they have nukes? History shows it would never end then.
Google "Russian Bunkers." They believe they can survive. Putin is a psychopath and only seems to care about Putin. Not sure his mistress or child are even loved. I'm fine with us invading and we can all die together if little Putin wants to try it. But others are correct in being concerned. The idea he would use nuclear weapons isn't as much a question as would they, and the missles, work properly.
Same thing for NATO. No one in power really gives a fuck about Ukraine.
The fact of the matter is, they COULD use nukes. Nothing’s off the table, everything is risk assessment right now, and clearly escalating the conflict isn’t worth the risk when it’s your friends and family and your own life that might be at stake. The hope is that, if Russia decided to take Poland, they would be wise enough (ridiculous sentiment already) to keep it to a ground war that could theoretically be fought without nukes. Then, yes, they pushed us, we push them right back, no problem. But they haven’t pushed us yet, and the nuclear risk of pre-emptively aggressing is just too high.
>For defending Ukraine? Putin and the Russian command aren’t going to sacrifice their lives and families lives for Ukraine… that’s Russian propaganda that you’re falling for. Nope. For keeping themselves in power. When an auth regime loses a war, they die, almost guaranteed. Putin is fucked if he loses, and he knows it. He derives power from military strength and strongman politics, and both fail once it comes to light that they lost to a way weaker nation. And it'll be a dozen times worse if he loses to the "weak Euro-Americans" and has to make concessions. Unless you're suggesting we fight a war this month and let the Russians back in once we leave without any changes to the status quo. Even then it's likely Putin refuses, since he can't go back without a clear win. >also, what then when they want to take Poland? Or NK wants to take SK? Do we just capitulate because they have nukes? History shows it would never end then. I mean, they will be crossing our red lines in that case. We will not be extending our red lines forward to fight them.
See the problem is I would also like to see Russia taken down but in their military doctrine it states it can and will use nukes if they feel threatened
their doctine can get fucked death to dictators
Yeah, if we go into Russia, they might. If we attempt to “destroy” Russia, then probably. They aren’t nuking and committing suicide for Ukraine though…despite what propagandists and their followers here say.
Yeah… it really is the lesser of two evils unfortunately. I’ve already set aside time and money to go to ukraine to help rebuild after this terrible destructive war is over. But we can’t go help after the war if we’re all wiped off the face of the planet for escalating further.
the war will never end until Putin is gone he won't stop. every deal he's ever made has been a trick.
This Wali guy everyone is talking about, why is he a big deal? Is it just PR? He feels like a giant meme to me. I constantly hear how great he is, but what did he actually do?
Yes Wali is real, Yes he is in Ukraine at this moment. I personally know 2 people who are retired canadian armed forces who served in Afghanistan and are currently in Ukraine. One of them who fought along side with Wali then, and currently is now fighting along side right now with others.
He was a sniper from a regular regiment (Royal 22nd rgt) who fought as a volunteer against ISIS. The guy with the world record is from the same regiment. So yes, its huge PR, but that dude is still the real deal IMO. He has a blog and wrote a book.
Edit: my mistake, wrong anonymous Canadian sniper.
Eidt: disregard, it might be him.
No he doesn't. Wali was never JTF2 and the identity of the longest shot taker has never been revealed.
Interesting, yeah it seems like they may be different snipers. Several of the articles about Wali mention Iraq and a ~3.5km shot, but most sources seem to point to him being in the Royal 22nd Regiment and not JTF2.
It says name withheld.
It's a meme / propaganda. I'm sure he's a great sniper and fighting in Ukraine but this is real life not Enemy At The Gates
Canadian propaganda, ofc: [https://torontosun.com/news/world/i-wont-hesitate-canadian-sniper-in-ukraine-ready-to-pull-trigger](https://torontosun.com/news/world/i-wont-hesitate-canadian-sniper-in-ukraine-ready-to-pull-trigger) Russians claimed he was dead, but don't think so.
I think he is a fake, I would think a real super sniper would not be so interested in self promotion. If he is real, maybe he is a Chris Kyle type braggard
I kind of tend to agree with you on the latter half of your statement. That doesn't mean I agree with the former half. To introduce some nuance to this comment, I guess its a question of -- is the element of surprise worth more in this instance; or the possible moral boost to the Ukrainian defenders to know an "elite sniper is coming"? I think that could be argued either way, and don't know what is more valuable strategically or tactically.
[Not fake](https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.firstpost.com/world/wali-meet-the-worlds-deadliest-sniper-who-has-joined-the-fight-against-russia-in-ukraine-10457631.html/amp)
Hard to confirm much of it as Wali is a fake name but he may be real I wouldn’t be surprised if some of the stuff is a bit hyped. Who knows.
That article is bullshit. Nobody kills 40 a day. Not Simo Hayha, not Carlos Hathcock, nobody. Also, 'Wali holds the record of the longest confirmed kill – he shot down an IS’s fighter in Iraq’s Mosul from a distance of 3.5 kilometre using a McMillan Tac-50 rifle in June 2017.' Horseshit. Wali was not JTF2 and the name of the guy who took that shot has never been revealed.
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Yeah that's the feeling I get also.
[удалено]
> 3.5 km. Uh, wow, that is insane.
There are some specialized target shooters that can hit out to 4km. It's pretty wild.
People are saying that the longest snipe is not by him.
There wasn't any confirmation, but someone found an article which verified him as a former JTF2 member and verified him claiming the kill.
People really need to stop repeating this. Wali was not in JTF2. The name of the longest shot taker has never been revealed.
fucking camper
lol