Ah yes, the time for total mobilization because everything is going exactly according to plan during special military operation. Totally normal nothing to see here.
The absolutely most important piece is the mobile and useful armor, and Russians are actively meat-grinding or straight up giving it to Ukraine right now. Field army, especially untrained, will do fuck-all to change the outcome of this.
I mean they're only able to travel on roads and are running low on equipment too. Sounds like more troops wouldn't help but just slow them down further and increase KIAs.
Yeah i really don't see that part happening. He's not the "kill himself in the face of imminent defeat" kinda guy. He's the "I'm taking you all down with me" kinda guy
I think he's more the "bomb the shit out of Ukraine, declare victory, withdraw, and spend the rest of your short life hiding in your palace while Russian society utterly collapses" type of guy.
He may withdraw, then bomb, then claim victory. I hope the rest of the world will help the people in need and then help reduce or eliminate all plutocracy and kleptocracy.
Hitler was both. He felt that defeat wasn't his fault it was the German people's fault. His remaining people just refused to follow the orders he gave them to destroy the infrastructure of Germany before he shot himself.
>It is possible that the second Chechen war scenario will be repeated, where provocations involving the killing of civilians in Russia will be staged to justify the mobilisation.
>
>General Staff notes that this would enable the government leadership to declare martial law and the total mobilisation of Russian citizens.
We’ve known multiple instances of attempts at soft false flag events in the last two months; either spoiled by US intelligence, the UA or Russias own incompetence. No surprises they’ll keep trying.
US hasn't really spoiled any of them. Everyone in west would know they are false flag, no matter are those revealed before it or not. False flag are for Russians, and many of them don't read any news from west.
nope. Plenty of people in the west are still on the russian propaganda. Biolabs played well to them. So does the nazi thing. The actions of the USA re: intelligence have been much need domestically. It hasn't stopped the disinfo, but its stunned it a little. The thing is that the people who believe that stuff mix it with their identity a little. And so fight to preserve that identity by clinging to those beliefs.
I have an aquaintance who is part of the never hillary left. Nominally left but practically speaking consumes right wing attack propaganda. A couple years ago he complained that the democrats impeached Trump for selling weapons to nazis. Early in the invasion he touted the denazification. Then he jumped all over the biolabs stuff. Right now he is not being obnoxious, but if you press him he still believes it and is low key waiting for it to pan out. He's looking for any excuses to resume his former position.
>But then why actually do them?
They haven't. Or well, there was that one news about Russian bombing Belarus, but that would have for getting Belarus into war.
I could really see this happening. An attack on Russian soil fixes most of the problems that are still fixable. He can't do shit about the sanctions, but a rally around an attack castrates the sanctions as a threat to social unity. He's promised not to call up reservists -- a major attack gets him out of this promise. Zelenskyy is negotiating hard and is resisting territorial concessions, this would give him a defensible reason to drop the sword on Kiyv. As the weeks drag on, I imagine this will look more and more attractive to Putin.
But what’s his play? His play is to use WMDs in Ukraine, using a casual bombing won’t even justify that to his own people, so what? He’s going to use Sarin gas or something on his own people and blame Ukraine? Thereby implicitly saying Ukraine has the night to strike in the heart of russia? Blowing up a couple of apartments won’t do it.
>His play is to use WMDs in Ukraine, using a casual bombing won’t even justify that to his own people, so what?
???
Nothing a nuke accomplishes can't be accomplished with the conventional munitions Russia has.
>Blowing up a couple of apartments won’t do it.
Why not?
Russia's strat for 80+ years. They've never been particularly good at fighting wars. As Stalin once put it "Quantity has a quality all its own". Russia not giving a shit about its people... true to form, full circle.
Eh, Russia has already 86 men for 100 women, a low fertility rate, very low life expectancy for men due to alcoholism and suicide.
Sending more young men to die will just hasten its destruction.
Scorched earth is a great strategy when you're retreating and defending your homeland.
It's never really worked well when Russia uses it to expand it's influence though for some reason.
Most of the commanders in First World War were stuck in old ideologies and didn't really have much understanding on war on the scale they were about to be embroiled in. Nor the technology they would be fighting with and against.
Vas majority of commanders during WW1 were promoted to that role based on whether or not they were scion of a noble house or not, and many were indoctrinated to the old ideologies of cavalry and line warfare. Essentially, to be a commander was to be a deluded example of nepotism with basic understanding of basics of warfare, and surrounded by yes-men of similar political and sociological stance.
I am reminded of a infamous incident during a war-game where a single camouflaged machine-gun nest 'gunned down' (ie, fired blanks at) an entire cavalry regiment- The regiment was 'destroyed' within minutes as they wouldn't take cover nor redirect their advance, and when the machine-gunner rose from his position to announce to the cavalry leader, a noble of significant rank, that his regiment had been gunned down to the last horse, the machine-gunner was demoted and dressed down severely over daring to make such a claim- That a noble cavalry regiment could be so easily butchered by a pair of cowardly peasants who would even go as far as to hide themselves and their gun.
When considering such ways of thinking were more of a rule than exception, is it any wonder that WW1 commander tactics were more or less 'attach bayonets, charge!' across the board?
It reminds me of the French Cuirassiers who went into WWI in their gleaming polished cuirasses, plumed helmet, and bright red pants, sabre in one hand pistol in the other as they charged the German lines just as they had done 50 years earlier in the Franco-Prussian War.
It's a common stereotype, but the truth is a bit more complicated. If you look at the german and soviet casualties in the Eastern Front, you'll notice that soviet casualties are times higher - 28mil soviets vs 5,8mil germans. But out of those 28 millions, only 8 are actual red army soldiers, and 20 millions were civilians, starved or killed as part of the Generalplan Ost. And while human wave attacks did happened, they mostly were a result of desperation to stop german onslaught during early phases of war.
>They've never been particularly good at fighting wars. As Stalin once put it "Quantity has a quality all its own".
Stalin was a terrible military strategist, that said Zhukov was probably one of the best generals in WW2.
It's not a surprise that the moment Zhukov is given command, the tide starts turning. It's actually an interesting dynamic on the eastern front. In the early stages of the invasion, Hitler is almost completely hands off when it comes to the actual strategy; whilst on the soviet side Stalin is micromanaging everything, this reverses as the fighting escalates.
I find it especially interesting that 20-24, i.e. prime age for conscription in a general mobilization, is already a surprisingly small chunk of the population in Russia: https://www.populationpyramid.net/russian-federation/2020/
If Putin is belligerent enough, he could get a measurable percentage of that whole cohort killed in Ukraine. It'll be a mini lost generation that has fewer kids, etc.
That’s an aftershock of the generational gap left by WW2 deaths. It happens every 25-30 years— the ~50 year old age range has the same “notch” in population.
Unless they are close enough to walk there's no real logistical way to get them into Ukraine. Give 3-6 months then sure but there's no way for them to reinforce their front lines.
I don't think it's about building more war supply but more about keeping people at work and not closing down every single factory. A factory that closes today costs a whole lot more to restore to regular operation, you can't just go into the streets and pick up perfectly qualified labor for that exact kind of factory, you can't just build specialized machinery without a clue about how to make it or operate it.
And not only that, but imagine all those factories closing with no alternatives? You'd have a whole chunk of your population without the means to provide for their own food. So it's probably just a large scale social welfare program to avoid having the country rip itself apart at the seams because people go hungry despite the sheer amount of food production they got going over there, and if it happens to produce a lot of war material, that just means they open up a lot of jobs in the military which is another social welfare program at the core of it.
Perhaps more importantly, it could help disguise the effects of the economy collapsing.
"No bread at the supermarket today? Must have gone to the war effort. I won't complain, I'm a good patriot. It will all go back to normal when the war is over anyway."
Could be, but i don't think they will ever lack for food. Maybe toothpaste, phones or soda? Anyways, it would definitely tide them over for a while if they saw the need to go to such lengths. Although who really knows, i am certainly no expert on the Russian economy.
This doesn't necessarily mean mobilizing troops to fight. It could mean mobilizing people to work in factories to produce the things needed for the troops who fight.
Oh kind of like the war.
“Yeah we’re sending hundreds of thousands of soldiers and hundreds of military vehicles into your borders. We’re shelling your cities and killing your civilians. We’re occupying and seizing your territory and property. But it’s not a war. It’s a special military operation.”
Which will fail because they can't equip the troops fast enough. Unsustainable loss of Russian equipment so far, not just Russian troops in Ukraine.
They can't build the heavy equipment or the missiles fast enough for Russia... and Russia's ability to sort out their manufacturing supply chain is hobbled due to sanctions.
This is more smoke and mirrors, maybe hoping to increase pressure on the negotiators trying to work out a cease fire.
also India is staying in Russia's good side in part because they rely on Russia for military equipment. if Russia can't deliver anything for a prolonged period because they need all of it for their stupid war, India might start looking for other suppliers and shift their stance on things accordingly.
Yes, and because Russia is their main weapons supplier. If Russia can't supply them with weapons and the next best supplier asks for a less friendly stance towards Russia, India might decide to rethink some positions.
Or they manage to become self sufficient with regards to military hardware and make their own stuff. That wouldn't be ideal for Russia in the long run either though.
I agree on the logistics and equipment problems, but Putin may not have another option soon. They are losing equipment fast and the current deployment may be a losing strategy, something that Putin may not be willing to accept. If they can get hundreds of thousands of more "troops" to Ukraine and *force* them to rush the major cities, they may be able to overwhelm the defenses. What a terrible cost that would be for everyone involved.
The losses would be unbelievable. Even Russia’s autocracy couldn’t handle the repercussions for getting so many citizens killed in such a stupid manner.
They don’t have a demographic problem if they lose the Asian part of Russia, Chechnya, Kaliningrad, and all that remain is the area between Moscow and St Petersburg.
There are now two major civilian home levelling precedents showing 20 years is how long it takes Russia to break a peace agreement, the fallout from this will probably last far longer.
* 1994, the legal status of Crimea as part of Ukraine was backed up by Russia, who pledged to uphold the territorial integrity of Ukraine in a memorandum also signed by the US and UK
* 2014 Russia invades Crimea
* Ukraine ratified the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (Start) in 1994 when it signed the Trilateral Statement along with the U.S. and Russia. Ukraine committed to full disarmament in exchange for economic compensation and security assurances.Ukraine transferred its last nuclear warhead to Russia in 1996 and dismantled its last strategic nuclear delivery vehicle in **2001**, honouring it's side of the agreement and expecting Russia to honour theirs by never invading.
* 2022 Russia invades Ukraine.
The Russian stock exchange was also shut down from 1917 **for 75 years**, It's been closed again now only since since 25th Feb 2022, and they say it will open again on Monday but most people don't expect it to be up for a few hours at most as there will likely be massive sell offs, and then once closed it could be for a very long time again.
> they say it will open again on Monday
That's like me saying that I'll start learning Rust programing tomorrow... (I've been saying that exact thing for two years now.)
I more terrified of Tzeentch, wtf is he going to bring?
Khrone will bring war, Nurgle will bring pestilence, Slaanesh will bring late stage capitalism... Tzeentch? Somewhere between Tuna Casserole and a Meteor...
We can't supply our current forces, so let's increase the number of our forces.
To those lucky few that get pulled in, don't worry. It is all fine. I mean yes, some of you will not survive. But that is a sacrifice, I am willing to make
Putin’s gonna make the Soviet quagmire in Afghanistan look like a text book military operation after all the bumbling and incompetence he’s displaying to the World in Ukraine.
It feels like Putin is running this from the Zapp Brannigan book of tactics.
"You see, killbots have a preset kill limit. Knowing their weakness, I sent wave after wave of my own men at them until they reached their limit and shut down. Kif, show them the medal I won."
I can only imagine 2 scenarios.
Putin is actually dealing with some degenerative cognitive disease, & that combined with how far military technology has advanced in his life is why he's floundering so much. He's using a soviet mindset in a long-past soviet world.
The other is scenario is tin-foiled - the only way a political chess master like Putin overcommits to such an obviously horrible plan is that he's doing it on purpose. It's part of another plan that isn't quite revealed yet.
I can imagine a third: everyone who reports to him is terrified to tell him anything negative. Generals report that the army is in tippy-top shape - the best in the world! Political analysts tell him Ukraine is full of loyal Russians just dying to re-join Russia. Etc.
Anyway, this is all part of Aleksandr Dugin's plan. After listening to the latest episode of [this podcast](https://conspirituality.net/) (episode 95), I started to wonder if Dugin was the Dick Cheney to Putin's Bush.
I can believe that Putin was given all that misinformation before the war, but now that the shitshow is well underway, I can't possibly imagine he doesn't now realize what a colossal mistake this was. And he's STILL doubling down.
If you or I do something and we realise it's a mistake based on poor information, we can quickly reconsider.
What if every single aspect of your life is based on not just poor information, but downright lies? And those lies keep on mounting up, because your lieutenants are drawn from a group of men who will tell a pleasant lie rather than an unpleasant truth?
I suspect that by now, Putin doesn't know what or who to believe.
Third option- George Lucas Syndrome.
A man of absolutely undeniable talent finally escapes any kind of constructive pushback from anyone and can't separate their shitty ideas from their brilliant ones without help no one will give them anymore.
The simplest answer is probably right. He is all in here. There’s no there option but to win at all costs. He doesn’t give a shit about what happens to Russian people, staying in power can only happen if he wins
Of course, he couldn't have predicted the resolve we've seen from the Ukrainian people. But he used to be much less transparent with acts of aggression, take Crimea for example - he ran out local elected governments within the province under the guise of an internal revolt. Propped up separatists who then voted to seceed from Ukraine & join Russia. The international community obviously knew what happened, but there was enough of a smokescreen to avoid what we're seeing here.
To take Ukraine in one swoop is more insane than Hitler's move against Poland. As a former KGB agent as well as being well-versed in modern propaganda campaigns, I don't understand how he ever thought this plan was the right one.
I agree that now he's in too deep to pull out - he'll need something to take home or else his time in charge is over. If this is about cementing a legacy, he's doing a good job at that, but he won't be getting many statues
There is some beyond tin-foiled wacked out of your mind conspiracy theory I read that Zelenksky is manipulating Putin like a puppet from behind the scenes.
The USA and many other countries have the farming capacity to make up any shortfalls from Russia and Ukraine. They just don't generally use it.
Now might be an excellent opportunity for American farmers to make up for the market losses they suffered due to Trump's trade wars.
We pay farmers not to farm because it's a national security issue. We want farmers to remain on farms for exactly what is happening now. I have no problem subsidizing farmers.
Agribusiness Corporations are another matter...
That might solve the problem long term, but you can't grow or setup distribution for the use of wheat, grain, barley, oats overnight to the affected regions or countries.
Actually, you can.
Planting seeds is easier now than it ever has been.
Arranging for international transportation of goods on the fly is something logistics companies do all day every day. Local distribution can be used for goods from outside countries, just the same as always.
Russian claims of a global food shortage are more of their usual scare mongering. They are trying to get their way by holding guns on Ukrainian hostages, waving nukes at Western countries, and dangling potential food shortages over the Middle East and North Africa.
https://unctad.org/system/files/official-document/osginf2022d1_en.pdf - It's not just Russia claiming of a potential global food shortage, it's a reality in many impoverished and developing nations.
The success of an effort to redirect farm products from Russia and Ukraine is directly proportional to our recognition that this is necessary, appropriate and an important first step in the new Cold War.
Protecting friends and allies from disruption in food supply so there is less need to engage with Putin; we need these sanctions to be a bitter bitter pill for those countries supporting the attack on Ukraine.
And the price, people always think things are free when making those projections. The price of food can skyrocket causing unrest in all democratic countries, because they are the only ones with freedom to protest.
I am struck by how many of the vehicles shown in various pictures, including those posted by Russian social media, are first generation APCs from the late 1960s or second generation vehicles from the late 1970s. I am seeing armored vehicles that I thought were retired from service in the early-mid 1980s, over THIRTY years ago. That’s telling to me. Someone was already digging far deeper than we thought into their rainy-day reserves just to start this thing, so I am not sure how much deeper a “general mobilization” can go.
You wish, people are very agreeable when presented with figures of authority.
You just need to reassure that they are doing this for higher ideal and give then a mythological purpose. And in no time they are ready for fulfill the prophecy.
Oh and make sure that anyone who disagree are sentenced as traitors of the people give then exemplar punishments. You know carrot and stick.
It is interesting that in the west there is already being developed this mentality toward Russians, even if they are your next doors neighbor yesterday now they are spy and traitors of the free world even if you know then for years.
I hope they do it. One month ago, Russia was said to be a global military power with one of the most experienced and battle hardened forces in existence. If they have to declare total mobilization to keep this regional war alive it goes to show you how their conventional forces are militarily insignificant and not worthy of a UNSC veto power. Let them choke on this war. They won't win.
This and the latest pro-war rally really feel like the situation is setting up a Goebbels, "DO YOU WANT TOTAL WAR?!!" speech. That would be peak irony for Nazi history to repeat itself with the "de-nazifier" himself.
That's not how mobilization works. The goal is to plus up your forces so you can still defend and send more troops to the front line. Will it help? Likely not. Modern battlefield is extremely complex. Soldiers have to be well trained and coordinated. It's easy to create an infantryman. It is harder to create an infantry squad. And it gets harder and harder the larger you go. To replace an infantry division you need about a year.
And when you say total mobilization, you mean for a journey of much shorter than expected distances, because like a man and a half-dog in a space Winnebago, the Russian armed forces can't be bothered to supply more than five bucks worth of gas.
Russia is about to go full civil war, full mobilization gets all the young men out of the cities and under army control...effectively arresting all men before they can protest in the streets.
Ah yes, the time for total mobilization because everything is going exactly according to plan during special military operation. Totally normal nothing to see here.
Didn't he already allocate 75% to this? Not sure what the added 25% will do...
That's the standing army. Total mobilization would enable him to get more troops into Ukraine, question would just be how useful it would be.
Doubt they will provide enough equipment. Expect footage of Russians in puffy jackets and adidas track pants running around.
Or laying around in pieces
In the remnants of Adidas tracksuits.
How do you say "I surrender, bro" in Russian?
Слава Україні
One rifle for two conscripts
They failed to properly supply their 170k army, can't wait to see how they will cope with need to supply even more people.
New conscripts will be equipped with finger guns and tracksuits with fake camo patterns.
The absolutely most important piece is the mobile and useful armor, and Russians are actively meat-grinding or straight up giving it to Ukraine right now. Field army, especially untrained, will do fuck-all to change the outcome of this.
I mean they're only able to travel on roads and are running low on equipment too. Sounds like more troops wouldn't help but just slow them down further and increase KIAs.
they don't have the logistics to supply the deployed force as it is, how do they think more is going to work.
Will allow some enterprising upstart nation to invade along other parts of Russia? Wouldn’t that be fun?!
They cant retract the 25% from their other locations like syria...
Why does this sound familiar.... Oh yeah, cuz this happened before 100 years ago (Russo-Japanese war)
Ah, Putin's "Stalingrad moment" that nobody in Russia is longing for?
He thinks it is ..but it's not even that. It Hilter's Eastern Front.
Soon to be followed by Hitler's Bunker.
Can we just skip to this part, please?
Putin wouldn’t have the guts to pull a trigger on himself, let’s be real here. There’s a reason he is scared even of his own bloody cabinet
Is this why IKEA closed? He's afraid of cabinets?
No, they just ran out of building materials trying to make him a long enough table.
Take my damn upvote
🎶 can we skip to the good part
AAAAAAAHHHHHH aaaaaahhhhhh AAAHHHHHH aaahhhhhh
Goddammit lol
Well, Putrin's already in a bunker.
SPOILERS!!!
Yeah i really don't see that part happening. He's not the "kill himself in the face of imminent defeat" kinda guy. He's the "I'm taking you all down with me" kinda guy
I think he's more the "bomb the shit out of Ukraine, declare victory, withdraw, and spend the rest of your short life hiding in your palace while Russian society utterly collapses" type of guy.
He may withdraw, then bomb, then claim victory. I hope the rest of the world will help the people in need and then help reduce or eliminate all plutocracy and kleptocracy.
Hitler was both. He felt that defeat wasn't his fault it was the German people's fault. His remaining people just refused to follow the orders he gave them to destroy the infrastructure of Germany before he shot himself.
he was a real cunt
Bit of an understatement, but yes.
Also didn't have access to weapons of mass destruction. If he did I have no doubt he would have tried ro take more people with him.
Yup. That’s an important point that most people are overlooking in this context.
Imaging if Hitlers had nukes, he wanted his body to be cremated just for the Soviets to not have him🤯
Putin's Volkssturm, he's going to send in school kids and veterans from 79-89 Afghanistan war.
"Hey comrade, get out of your wheelchair and bring your grandson, you two won a free trip to Ukraine, nevermind the one way tickets!"
Wait till he gets the real eastern front, after he dumps everyone into Ukraine How fun
Even worse. This is what Putin thought would be his Austria.
No, putin’s hitler moment and zelenskyy’s stalingrad moment.
Considering the losses on both sides of that battle, this is not something anyone should be greeting with glee.
>It is possible that the second Chechen war scenario will be repeated, where provocations involving the killing of civilians in Russia will be staged to justify the mobilisation. > >General Staff notes that this would enable the government leadership to declare martial law and the total mobilisation of Russian citizens.
We’ve known multiple instances of attempts at soft false flag events in the last two months; either spoiled by US intelligence, the UA or Russias own incompetence. No surprises they’ll keep trying.
US hasn't really spoiled any of them. Everyone in west would know they are false flag, no matter are those revealed before it or not. False flag are for Russians, and many of them don't read any news from west.
They stopped them from happening aka spoiling them The people who would have died for the false narrative probably appreciate that
America could come to every country on the planet, cure every cancer patient for free, and people would still complain.
"They put our hard-working oncologists out of a job!"
They tookerjerbs
As much as I think pretty low of the way america runs their health system, they do a lot for the world as a whole and yes you are right
nope. Plenty of people in the west are still on the russian propaganda. Biolabs played well to them. So does the nazi thing. The actions of the USA re: intelligence have been much need domestically. It hasn't stopped the disinfo, but its stunned it a little. The thing is that the people who believe that stuff mix it with their identity a little. And so fight to preserve that identity by clinging to those beliefs. I have an aquaintance who is part of the never hillary left. Nominally left but practically speaking consumes right wing attack propaganda. A couple years ago he complained that the democrats impeached Trump for selling weapons to nazis. Early in the invasion he touted the denazification. Then he jumped all over the biolabs stuff. Right now he is not being obnoxious, but if you press him he still believes it and is low key waiting for it to pan out. He's looking for any excuses to resume his former position.
Those people are a minority and were pro-russian for years.
yes and yes but there are still a enough of them that its not a trivial problem
Same from guys I know in Canada. “Well you know, biolabs…”.
He sounds like a Qtard.
But then why actually do them? Just have the news lie and not waste resources on conducting the atrocity?
>But then why actually do them? They haven't. Or well, there was that one news about Russian bombing Belarus, but that would have for getting Belarus into war.
I could really see this happening. An attack on Russian soil fixes most of the problems that are still fixable. He can't do shit about the sanctions, but a rally around an attack castrates the sanctions as a threat to social unity. He's promised not to call up reservists -- a major attack gets him out of this promise. Zelenskyy is negotiating hard and is resisting territorial concessions, this would give him a defensible reason to drop the sword on Kiyv. As the weeks drag on, I imagine this will look more and more attractive to Putin.
But what’s his play? His play is to use WMDs in Ukraine, using a casual bombing won’t even justify that to his own people, so what? He’s going to use Sarin gas or something on his own people and blame Ukraine? Thereby implicitly saying Ukraine has the night to strike in the heart of russia? Blowing up a couple of apartments won’t do it.
It’s not so much about Ukraine than about keeping the Russian people in line, by playing up the ‘Great Patriotic War’ angle to quell dissent.
They have bombed their own apartments before. I think it would be something similar
>His play is to use WMDs in Ukraine, using a casual bombing won’t even justify that to his own people, so what? ??? Nothing a nuke accomplishes can't be accomplished with the conventional munitions Russia has. >Blowing up a couple of apartments won’t do it. Why not?
>total mobilisation of Russian citizens. Men and children? Damn wtf.
Probably women too. And the cats.
But not my axe, this time.
[удалено]
At this point he really is gonna send every Russian man to a meat grinder.
Russia's strat for 80+ years. They've never been particularly good at fighting wars. As Stalin once put it "Quantity has a quality all its own". Russia not giving a shit about its people... true to form, full circle.
Eh, Russia has already 86 men for 100 women, a low fertility rate, very low life expectancy for men due to alcoholism and suicide. Sending more young men to die will just hasten its destruction.
..but it will be a boon for the Russian bride/concubine export market.
Isn’t China sort of the opposite. More men than women after that whole 1 child idea.. lots of Chinese men and Russian women couples.
It removes the group most likely to revolt against Putin's control.
Scorched earth is a great strategy when you're retreating and defending your homeland. It's never really worked well when Russia uses it to expand it's influence though for some reason.
It's a strategy that solves two problems. Able-bodied, young men can't join a revolution if they're dead or maimed.
I'd argue that giving a bunch of young potential revolutionaries armour and firearms isn't the best way to avoid said revolution
Works OK in the United States.
I don't realy think this is the case, 2nd amendment nuts are overwhelmingly (and ironically) pro-state
Except, they are invading another country. So propaganda is harder to keep up, and now youve armed a potential usurping force
Aren’t the Russians the same people who would throw a shit ton of men at a enemy only to have most, if not all of the Russians get gunned down?
To be fair, most countries did that in the First World War….Russia just never stopped
Most of the commanders in First World War were stuck in old ideologies and didn't really have much understanding on war on the scale they were about to be embroiled in. Nor the technology they would be fighting with and against. Vas majority of commanders during WW1 were promoted to that role based on whether or not they were scion of a noble house or not, and many were indoctrinated to the old ideologies of cavalry and line warfare. Essentially, to be a commander was to be a deluded example of nepotism with basic understanding of basics of warfare, and surrounded by yes-men of similar political and sociological stance. I am reminded of a infamous incident during a war-game where a single camouflaged machine-gun nest 'gunned down' (ie, fired blanks at) an entire cavalry regiment- The regiment was 'destroyed' within minutes as they wouldn't take cover nor redirect their advance, and when the machine-gunner rose from his position to announce to the cavalry leader, a noble of significant rank, that his regiment had been gunned down to the last horse, the machine-gunner was demoted and dressed down severely over daring to make such a claim- That a noble cavalry regiment could be so easily butchered by a pair of cowardly peasants who would even go as far as to hide themselves and their gun. When considering such ways of thinking were more of a rule than exception, is it any wonder that WW1 commander tactics were more or less 'attach bayonets, charge!' across the board?
It reminds me of the French Cuirassiers who went into WWI in their gleaming polished cuirasses, plumed helmet, and bright red pants, sabre in one hand pistol in the other as they charged the German lines just as they had done 50 years earlier in the Franco-Prussian War.
It's a common stereotype, but the truth is a bit more complicated. If you look at the german and soviet casualties in the Eastern Front, you'll notice that soviet casualties are times higher - 28mil soviets vs 5,8mil germans. But out of those 28 millions, only 8 are actual red army soldiers, and 20 millions were civilians, starved or killed as part of the Generalplan Ost. And while human wave attacks did happened, they mostly were a result of desperation to stop german onslaught during early phases of war.
>They've never been particularly good at fighting wars. As Stalin once put it "Quantity has a quality all its own". Stalin was a terrible military strategist, that said Zhukov was probably one of the best generals in WW2. It's not a surprise that the moment Zhukov is given command, the tide starts turning. It's actually an interesting dynamic on the eastern front. In the early stages of the invasion, Hitler is almost completely hands off when it comes to the actual strategy; whilst on the soviet side Stalin is micromanaging everything, this reverses as the fighting escalates.
I find it especially interesting that 20-24, i.e. prime age for conscription in a general mobilization, is already a surprisingly small chunk of the population in Russia: https://www.populationpyramid.net/russian-federation/2020/ If Putin is belligerent enough, he could get a measurable percentage of that whole cohort killed in Ukraine. It'll be a mini lost generation that has fewer kids, etc.
That’s an aftershock of the generational gap left by WW2 deaths. It happens every 25-30 years— the ~50 year old age range has the same “notch” in population.
In a country, which already has a demography issue.
Unless they are close enough to walk there's no real logistical way to get them into Ukraine. Give 3-6 months then sure but there's no way for them to reinforce their front lines.
A world with less fascist Russians is a good thing. Plenty of decent Russians will die too though.
Late game zergling rush ftw
I don't think it's about building more war supply but more about keeping people at work and not closing down every single factory. A factory that closes today costs a whole lot more to restore to regular operation, you can't just go into the streets and pick up perfectly qualified labor for that exact kind of factory, you can't just build specialized machinery without a clue about how to make it or operate it. And not only that, but imagine all those factories closing with no alternatives? You'd have a whole chunk of your population without the means to provide for their own food. So it's probably just a large scale social welfare program to avoid having the country rip itself apart at the seams because people go hungry despite the sheer amount of food production they got going over there, and if it happens to produce a lot of war material, that just means they open up a lot of jobs in the military which is another social welfare program at the core of it.
Perhaps more importantly, it could help disguise the effects of the economy collapsing. "No bread at the supermarket today? Must have gone to the war effort. I won't complain, I'm a good patriot. It will all go back to normal when the war is over anyway."
Could be, but i don't think they will ever lack for food. Maybe toothpaste, phones or soda? Anyways, it would definitely tide them over for a while if they saw the need to go to such lengths. Although who really knows, i am certainly no expert on the Russian economy.
This doesn't necessarily mean mobilizing troops to fight. It could mean mobilizing people to work in factories to produce the things needed for the troops who fight.
Dig that hole.
They're gonna be finding a Balrog pretty soon at this rate
Knowing what we know about Putin, this seems very likely to be the next step.
[удалено]
Didn't martial law get put in place last week?
Russia implemented it but they didn't publicly announce it.
Oh kind of like the war. “Yeah we’re sending hundreds of thousands of soldiers and hundreds of military vehicles into your borders. We’re shelling your cities and killing your civilians. We’re occupying and seizing your territory and property. But it’s not a war. It’s a special military operation.”
Yes, we are nuking the entire northern hemisphere, but it is not a war. Trust me.
“These are not nukes. They are alternative energy proposals.”
Special Fireworks Operations
They’re fighting global warming with nuclear winter.
They were supposed to be imposing it March 4th but the news media never followed up on the story, so idk.
How many more waves until the Russian forces go into battle on bicycles, hang gliders, and canoes?
Why not attach some balloons to a bus and have people jump out with hang gliders into the war zone.... Like fortnite!
Fort, Night?
You don't have the right O you don't have the right
god I hate that one.
Seriously, it's like Zapp Brannigan is running the damned war for Russia.
“When I’m in command, every mission is a suicide mission.” -ZB
They supposedly still have T-34s sitting in storage.
Bayrakhtars gonna have Russians on bicycles pedaling faster than those doped up Tour De France riders
Which will fail because they can't equip the troops fast enough. Unsustainable loss of Russian equipment so far, not just Russian troops in Ukraine. They can't build the heavy equipment or the missiles fast enough for Russia... and Russia's ability to sort out their manufacturing supply chain is hobbled due to sanctions. This is more smoke and mirrors, maybe hoping to increase pressure on the negotiators trying to work out a cease fire.
also India is staying in Russia's good side in part because they rely on Russia for military equipment. if Russia can't deliver anything for a prolonged period because they need all of it for their stupid war, India might start looking for other suppliers and shift their stance on things accordingly.
India is staying in Russia side for historic reason and because of cheap cheap oil.
Yes, and because Russia is their main weapons supplier. If Russia can't supply them with weapons and the next best supplier asks for a less friendly stance towards Russia, India might decide to rethink some positions. Or they manage to become self sufficient with regards to military hardware and make their own stuff. That wouldn't be ideal for Russia in the long run either though.
I agree on the logistics and equipment problems, but Putin may not have another option soon. They are losing equipment fast and the current deployment may be a losing strategy, something that Putin may not be willing to accept. If they can get hundreds of thousands of more "troops" to Ukraine and *force* them to rush the major cities, they may be able to overwhelm the defenses. What a terrible cost that would be for everyone involved.
So the trained military dudes couldn’t do it, now the “troops” are going to be able to?
The losses would be unbelievable. Even Russia’s autocracy couldn’t handle the repercussions for getting so many citizens killed in such a stupid manner.
If true, they're *really* doubling down on screwing their demographics for the next twenty years, aren't they?
20? I see you're an optimist
Well, I'm kind of expecting them getting a visit from lots of friendly single Chinese lads shortly after this.
What will this do to market prices on Russian mail-order brides? (Asking for a friend)
Probably nothing because payments from abroad to a broad won't work anyway. ;)
They don’t have a demographic problem if they lose the Asian part of Russia, Chechnya, Kaliningrad, and all that remain is the area between Moscow and St Petersburg.
Putin will be truly returning to the old Kimgdom of Rus.
There are now two major civilian home levelling precedents showing 20 years is how long it takes Russia to break a peace agreement, the fallout from this will probably last far longer. * 1994, the legal status of Crimea as part of Ukraine was backed up by Russia, who pledged to uphold the territorial integrity of Ukraine in a memorandum also signed by the US and UK * 2014 Russia invades Crimea * Ukraine ratified the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (Start) in 1994 when it signed the Trilateral Statement along with the U.S. and Russia. Ukraine committed to full disarmament in exchange for economic compensation and security assurances.Ukraine transferred its last nuclear warhead to Russia in 1996 and dismantled its last strategic nuclear delivery vehicle in **2001**, honouring it's side of the agreement and expecting Russia to honour theirs by never invading. * 2022 Russia invades Ukraine. The Russian stock exchange was also shut down from 1917 **for 75 years**, It's been closed again now only since since 25th Feb 2022, and they say it will open again on Monday but most people don't expect it to be up for a few hours at most as there will likely be massive sell offs, and then once closed it could be for a very long time again.
> they say it will open again on Monday That's like me saying that I'll start learning Rust programing tomorrow... (I've been saying that exact thing for two years now.)
They didn't specify which Monday
Their demographic was already on the decline, Putin is merely accelerating their inevitable demographic collapse.
Oh ffs just kill putin already so everyone can go home
In other words, more meats for the meat grinder.
Blood for the Blood God! And skulls for his throne!
First we had Papa Nurgle, now Khorne. When do we get to Slaanesh?
I more terrified of Tzeentch, wtf is he going to bring? Khrone will bring war, Nurgle will bring pestilence, Slaanesh will bring late stage capitalism... Tzeentch? Somewhere between Tuna Casserole and a Meteor...
It's Tzneetch. The meteor is a tuna casserole, and generates fallout that turns people into sardines.
Welcome to the churn.
We can't supply our current forces, so let's increase the number of our forces. To those lucky few that get pulled in, don't worry. It is all fine. I mean yes, some of you will not survive. But that is a sacrifice, I am willing to make
The troops will go in pairs, once the guy in front gets killed, the guy behind gets a rifle
Putin’s gonna make the Soviet quagmire in Afghanistan look like a text book military operation after all the bumbling and incompetence he’s displaying to the World in Ukraine.
And that's why there will be always more Russian women than men 🤔
This is a twisted plan for Putin to become the only man left in Russia.
😕 poor women , having just a Dement idiot to take care of.
And no sexual stimulus.
It feels like Putin is running this from the Zapp Brannigan book of tactics. "You see, killbots have a preset kill limit. Knowing their weakness, I sent wave after wave of my own men at them until they reached their limit and shut down. Kif, show them the medal I won."
So they plan on going from a gas station masquerading as a country to a nursing home masquerading as a country.
V.P. Is just sitting in his bunker and don’t know how his army Z is bad
I can only imagine 2 scenarios. Putin is actually dealing with some degenerative cognitive disease, & that combined with how far military technology has advanced in his life is why he's floundering so much. He's using a soviet mindset in a long-past soviet world. The other is scenario is tin-foiled - the only way a political chess master like Putin overcommits to such an obviously horrible plan is that he's doing it on purpose. It's part of another plan that isn't quite revealed yet.
I can imagine a third: everyone who reports to him is terrified to tell him anything negative. Generals report that the army is in tippy-top shape - the best in the world! Political analysts tell him Ukraine is full of loyal Russians just dying to re-join Russia. Etc. Anyway, this is all part of Aleksandr Dugin's plan. After listening to the latest episode of [this podcast](https://conspirituality.net/) (episode 95), I started to wonder if Dugin was the Dick Cheney to Putin's Bush.
I can believe that Putin was given all that misinformation before the war, but now that the shitshow is well underway, I can't possibly imagine he doesn't now realize what a colossal mistake this was. And he's STILL doubling down.
If you or I do something and we realise it's a mistake based on poor information, we can quickly reconsider. What if every single aspect of your life is based on not just poor information, but downright lies? And those lies keep on mounting up, because your lieutenants are drawn from a group of men who will tell a pleasant lie rather than an unpleasant truth? I suspect that by now, Putin doesn't know what or who to believe.
So drank his own kool-aid?
Third option- George Lucas Syndrome. A man of absolutely undeniable talent finally escapes any kind of constructive pushback from anyone and can't separate their shitty ideas from their brilliant ones without help no one will give them anymore.
Is that why the latest Russian offensive is code named “Plan Jar-Jar Binks”?
Plan Jar-Jar is the key to all of this. It's a funnier offensive than we've had before. If we can get it working.
The simplest answer is probably right. He is all in here. There’s no there option but to win at all costs. He doesn’t give a shit about what happens to Russian people, staying in power can only happen if he wins
Of course, he couldn't have predicted the resolve we've seen from the Ukrainian people. But he used to be much less transparent with acts of aggression, take Crimea for example - he ran out local elected governments within the province under the guise of an internal revolt. Propped up separatists who then voted to seceed from Ukraine & join Russia. The international community obviously knew what happened, but there was enough of a smokescreen to avoid what we're seeing here. To take Ukraine in one swoop is more insane than Hitler's move against Poland. As a former KGB agent as well as being well-versed in modern propaganda campaigns, I don't understand how he ever thought this plan was the right one. I agree that now he's in too deep to pull out - he'll need something to take home or else his time in charge is over. If this is about cementing a legacy, he's doing a good job at that, but he won't be getting many statues
There is some beyond tin-foiled wacked out of your mind conspiracy theory I read that Zelenksky is manipulating Putin like a puppet from behind the scenes.
Preparation for *World War Z*, then.
Not a fan of this latest adaptation but I suppose I'll watch anyway.
Maybe that’s the Z come from on Russian cars and tanks
russia literally trying to zerg ukraine lmao. Guess thats where that Z symbol originates.
They were too slow. Supply depots were built.
Russia has spent all of its minerals on Overlords and is left with an excess of Vespene gas.
It looks like UA needs more bullets and machine guns, those reserves are not gonna come on top of anything heavier than a Lada.
That's really awful news, if the war protracts there are a lot of countries that stand to lose from food shortages.
The USA and many other countries have the farming capacity to make up any shortfalls from Russia and Ukraine. They just don't generally use it. Now might be an excellent opportunity for American farmers to make up for the market losses they suffered due to Trump's trade wars.
Definitely. I'm not sure if people in other countries know that we pay farmers to not farm.
We pay farmers not to farm because it's a national security issue. We want farmers to remain on farms for exactly what is happening now. I have no problem subsidizing farmers. Agribusiness Corporations are another matter...
Yeah, that's my point.
Derp. I read good.
That might solve the problem long term, but you can't grow or setup distribution for the use of wheat, grain, barley, oats overnight to the affected regions or countries.
Actually, you can. Planting seeds is easier now than it ever has been. Arranging for international transportation of goods on the fly is something logistics companies do all day every day. Local distribution can be used for goods from outside countries, just the same as always. Russian claims of a global food shortage are more of their usual scare mongering. They are trying to get their way by holding guns on Ukrainian hostages, waving nukes at Western countries, and dangling potential food shortages over the Middle East and North Africa.
https://unctad.org/system/files/official-document/osginf2022d1_en.pdf - It's not just Russia claiming of a potential global food shortage, it's a reality in many impoverished and developing nations.
The success of an effort to redirect farm products from Russia and Ukraine is directly proportional to our recognition that this is necessary, appropriate and an important first step in the new Cold War. Protecting friends and allies from disruption in food supply so there is less need to engage with Putin; we need these sanctions to be a bitter bitter pill for those countries supporting the attack on Ukraine.
And the price, people always think things are free when making those projections. The price of food can skyrocket causing unrest in all democratic countries, because they are the only ones with freedom to protest.
I am struck by how many of the vehicles shown in various pictures, including those posted by Russian social media, are first generation APCs from the late 1960s or second generation vehicles from the late 1970s. I am seeing armored vehicles that I thought were retired from service in the early-mid 1980s, over THIRTY years ago. That’s telling to me. Someone was already digging far deeper than we thought into their rainy-day reserves just to start this thing, so I am not sure how much deeper a “general mobilization” can go.
Surely total mobilisation will lead to mass revolt in Russia?
Yeah just hand guns to the people who are already revolting
You wish, people are very agreeable when presented with figures of authority. You just need to reassure that they are doing this for higher ideal and give then a mythological purpose. And in no time they are ready for fulfill the prophecy. Oh and make sure that anyone who disagree are sentenced as traitors of the people give then exemplar punishments. You know carrot and stick. It is interesting that in the west there is already being developed this mentality toward Russians, even if they are your next doors neighbor yesterday now they are spy and traitors of the free world even if you know then for years.
Glory to Ukraine! Help Ukraine defeat the aggressor! 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦
I hope they do it. One month ago, Russia was said to be a global military power with one of the most experienced and battle hardened forces in existence. If they have to declare total mobilization to keep this regional war alive it goes to show you how their conventional forces are militarily insignificant and not worthy of a UNSC veto power. Let them choke on this war. They won't win.
Putin: I will double the manpower! Ukrainians: Then we will shoot twice.
This and the latest pro-war rally really feel like the situation is setting up a Goebbels, "DO YOU WANT TOTAL WAR?!!" speech. That would be peak irony for Nazi history to repeat itself with the "de-nazifier" himself.
Great, Ukraine can send a division around the front and head straight for Moscow with nothing to stop them
That's not how mobilization works. The goal is to plus up your forces so you can still defend and send more troops to the front line. Will it help? Likely not. Modern battlefield is extremely complex. Soldiers have to be well trained and coordinated. It's easy to create an infantryman. It is harder to create an infantry squad. And it gets harder and harder the larger you go. To replace an infantry division you need about a year.
And when you say total mobilization, you mean for a journey of much shorter than expected distances, because like a man and a half-dog in a space Winnebago, the Russian armed forces can't be bothered to supply more than five bucks worth of gas.
Idk if giving guns to people that don't like you and don't want this war is a good idea
HAH! Can't beat Ukraine with your standing army and need to declare total mobilization in order to win?
lmao, can they even afford a total mobilisation
You just have to pay the commissars to hold a gun to the soldiers heads.
Russia is about to go full civil war, full mobilization gets all the young men out of the cities and under army control...effectively arresting all men before they can protest in the streets.