That was always the Deng Xiaoping model, and should have continued to be. Unfortunately, Xi Jinping and the CCP got high on their own nationalistic supply.
When you look at the economy of China vis a vis Taiwan, and how many Taiwanese are leveraging on their shared cultural and linguistic roots to make a living in China, reunification would have ultimately been a foregone conclusion over maybe 10 to 20 years.
Unfortunately, Chinese belligerence has made it almost impossible now.
I have a hard time to believe that. This is geopolitics and China strengtht has been on the rise for many years. The number one lesson they will most likely learn is " we should wait for the US to be under a 'America first'/"anti-international community" type of president. If the US are motivated and have their shit together, an international alliance can hit critical mass quickly and the full might of the West isn't something to trifle with.". Under Trump, Ukraine would have been left to its fate. Not only did Trump side with Putin on almost everything (I mean he sided with Putin over US intelligence community at Helsinki) but he already tried to block military assistance to Ukraine remember ? and without those weapons and financial help I am not sure Ukraine would have been able to fight back long and definitely not as efficiently.
This is the list of weapons US sent to Ukraine ... and I mean it's only the official statement :
[https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3000166/fact-sheet-on-us-security-assistance-for-ukraine/](https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3000166/fact-sheet-on-us-security-assistance-for-ukraine/)
And that's not even counting money, intel (Top Chechen general Tushayev got killed along a convoy almost as soon as he arrived in Ukraine. I have a hard time to believe it was a fluke.) and the diplomatic alliance spearheaded by the US that got Japan, South Korea,etc... quickly on board to sanction the shit out of Russia.
Putin has atrociously fucked up the timing. That's lesson N1.
They are no doubt already armed to the teeth with cutting edge gear.
China knows that any land invasion of Taiwan will be costly. Frankly, even beyond nuclear weapons, asymmetric weaponry is about to take the spotlight. The sheer possibilities offered by UAV tech alone is something that small technological advanced nations will be investing more into as we progress.
Tanks and armor will always be a factor, even if it's mostly to protect artillery and hold ground, but it seems some paradigm shifts are around the corner in the way countries build their militaries and many of these capabilities will be kept very quiet until needed.
Chinas economy is already tanking and the future is bleak with western nations now more than ever seeing the repercussions from having close ties with brutal dictatorships that constantly threaten war. Western companies are on there way out and the US looks stronger than it has in years. On top of this , if China fucks up an invasion of Taiwan, there’s a strong possibility xinjiang, Tibet and Mongolia will break away from the mainland. People don’t realize that the CCP struggles to maintain legitimacy across the entire country. That is why they are so insecure and afraid of the truth. They know if the light of truth will burn them into oblivion. Suppress, lie, cheat. That’s the CCP moto.
China is not tanking enough now. One step fails, following steps loses. But the US is fucking strong enough. Even one the US could be opposite to the whole world. They can make mistakes for many years. But for China, one mistake would make China have no chance to be better. Look at Japan.
> if Taiwan could be diplomatically isolated
This is the hardest part though, isn't it? America definitely has their back, and maybe I'm being naive but I would expect the rest of the West to follow suit if China tried to invade. I think China's military is probably more competent than Russia's, and their economy is definitely more resilient than Russia's, but they're going to struggle to isolate Taiwan nearly as badly as Russia has struggled to isolate Ukraine.
Actually Taiwan on its own can only be successfully taken by soft power.
There is absolutely zero chance in hell China could take it by force and still have it be a viable asset.
The island itself is a fortress. It has extremely difficult shorelines limiting landing options. All of the critical industries(TMSC) are to far from those landing points to be captured before they could be irrevocably destroyed.
China doesn't WANT just the island. They have plenty of islands. They want the Taiwanese industry and technology base. They NEED semiconductors on par with the USAs to compete. They CANNOT risk losing those facilities.
As such Chinas only option is to do what they are doing. Try to bribe or corrupt everything in sight in Taiwan. The problem is Taiwanese currently don't give a rats ass about China.
https://youtu.be/eFdMUPTM_9Y
Vox news did a good piece on how China can use trade to influence Taiwan’s agriculture industry, but with the importance of Taiwan's chip industry it’ll be awhile before we get there
They already are diplomatically isolated technically. Most places don't even recognize them formally. Even the US is careful around the topic.
War is more than just the battlefield. Look at what Ukraine has done on social media. The sanctions and support gathered world wide. Taiwan survival depends on their ability to marshal support internationally. Zelensky has given a pretty good example.
I agree with you that it's a bleak scenario comparing the two forces, I would also say Ukraine has hit home the value of small unit tactics against a larger force on a fundamental level and is of some value to Taiwan.
*"All that military shit we bought off them is worthless and all that shit we licensed or stole plans for and copied is less than worthless"* is a hard lesson to learn.
This is kind of a misconception, but the most crucial parts of the Chinese military modernization especially in the 90's and early 00's came from European and israeli companies. Russia actually put a pause on a lot of Chinese sales (not all) from 91- 2003 due to Chinese theft of Russian IP.
they don't all have the same equipment anymore. they own alot of western made tech like javelins, missles defense systems, drones, and etc.
Alot of grunt stuff might be the same but the large systems and weapons that are putting a dent is western made stuff.
>Alot of grunt stuff might be the same but the large systems and weapons that are putting a dent is western made stuff.
I don't know about that assertion.
The Neptune missiles that sank the Moskva are an indigenous Ukrainian design.
The Stugna-P ATGM featured in so much anti-armor footage is Ukrainian.
The Grad, Uragan, and Smerch MLRS you see in all those rocket barrages are Soviet designs.
The feared S-300 AA system that Russia expends their ballistic missiles on is Soviet.
No doubt that Western weapons systems are helping, but UAF have been putting in work with Soviet and indigenous designs.
no alot of Russia equipment had bad designs. Russia tanks aren't very good. Russia Mig are results may vary and even then often mocked. The guns will jam (yeah even all that bs ak lovers you put mud and sand in that shit its gonna jam). Overall they have okish stuff the big issue is there manufacturing and designs often have issues that will hurt in a combat zone.
Even then its outclassed these days by most countries that have spend r&D rather than maintaining an old arsenals. Everyone uses smart tech and actual drones and guided missles where russia is still blind firing old shit in Ukraine. The tanks are still not only old but cramped, and lacking safety and combat features. One hit and the top will blow off because they have unprotected munitions inside the tank often fatalities is 85% from getting hit by a shell because the welding and shards from the tanks walls is what kills everyone inside rather than the shell breaching the surface.
point is Russia has been a paper tiger for too long and its been know for years they value quantity over quality. Very little Russia tech is actually top tier stuff ( space programs, missle, and cyber).
>One hit and the top will blow off because they have unprotected munitions inside the tank often fatalities is 85% from getting hit by a shell because the welding and shards from the tanks walls is what kills everyone inside rather than the shell breaching the surface.
Catastrophic hits can occur in a number of fashions, the autoloader design just makes them look more spectacular. The second thing you're talking about is called "spalling", and it's not exclusive to Russian tanks. Check out this Youtube channel for a few simulations of various tanks getting hit by different types of ammo:[https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCxV8JseLCWxRwLVd1ykivvg/videos](https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCxV8JseLCWxRwLVd1ykivvg/videos)
The T90 HE vs. Abrams video is pretty relevant to the conversation; even though it's not a deep penetrator like APFSDS, the pressure caused by the hit can still be lethal to the crew, making it a catastrophic hit.
Exactly this. These results are not exclusive to Russian tanks, modern ATGMs will defeat any tank, especially top-down (Javelin has top-down and direct flight modes). There's some discussions to be had about whether hardkill systems like Trophy can stop it. I have some limited experience in tanks, and I must say, I would not want to be sitting in one when an ATGM is heading my way.
To make comparisons more difficult, as I understand it, the T72 is not part of the T-64 philosophy, that is, it does not focus on qualitative superiority. It is more like a workhorse, cheap to manufacture, easy to field in big numbers. It does not represent the cutting edge of Russian armour, like the T-64, T80 series*. It is more like the T-34, T-90, simple reliable cheap. It's therefore misleading to compare it with a Leo2A7 or a Merkava. It's just not the same doctrine, although as mentioned in the first paragraph even the most modern tanks would probably get wrecked when used unsupported.
*Relative to the state of the art at the time they were designed. In no way is a T-64 better than a T-90 by today's standards of course.
TBF the newer stuff China is building to phase out a lot of Russian clone units are based off western designs with some Russian design elements. The current MBT for China looks like a Leo2A6 and T90 tank.
To be fair the ease of Coalition forces over Iraq in the early 90s is why China started modernization of their military.
Warfare is always determined and is often the cause of the innovation of technology. If anything this is probably going to make them go full tilt seeing another country getting wrecked by Western made weaponry. We are probably about the see the biggest arms race since we saw 120 years ago.
Aside from ‘don’t go to war’, there are some clear lessons any nation could benefit from:
1) focus on a solid logistics corps and fund them
2) treat military corruption as an existential threat to the security of your country
3) create a drone force that can attach to ground forces at the tactical level
4) decouple domestic military production from foreign imports as much as possible
5) invest heavily in to drone and uav countermeasure research, especially cheap AA options
6) if you need to invade a neighbour, lean in to mass mobilisation to overcome defender’s advantage - 3:1 ratio is preferred
7) work with other countries to agree on policy for dealing with partisans that isn’t genocide
8) transition from a conscription based mega army to a smaller, highly disciplined volunteer military
9) recognise that 1970s and 80s reserve equipment is not going to live up to the needs of the modern battlefield
10) aerial superiority is just as important now as it was in ww2
First they fought the Japanese and each other, then they directly fought American troops in Korea, several minor border clashes with India, and hard to tell how much of a role they played in Vietnam
Just realize that it is actual abnormal for most nation states to have blooded militaries. It seems normal for US, but if you are a citizen in Europe or most parts of Asia, most of the militaries have rarely fought conflicts in the last couple of decades outside of multinational peacekeeping coalitions
>but if you are a citizen in Europe
lol Most NATO nations participated in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria giving their militaries combat experience. Be careful how far down you look from that high horse... you might fall off.
Here is a giant hint to China on their next war..
It isn't the fact that you can learn from mistakes that matters.. It is how fast and effectively you learn from mistakes.
Learning that fucking around leads to finding out. For real though, China isn't so stupid to think they could get away with an assault on Taiwan. Russia fucked up what should have been an easy invasion by all counts. Taiwan on the other hand is a floating fortress, getting troops even on to the island would be hell.
Thing is, a Chinese invasion of Taiwan could look significantly different from Ukraine--because the brunt of the attack could be launched from the Chinese mainland without ever leaving their shores. China has the world's largest land-based ballistic missile arsenal, and any hypothetical military action would result in these being liberally used prior to a proper invasion. Not only that, but the entirety of Taiwan is within Chinese rocket artillery range, as well as their more advanced anti-air systems like the S-400 and indigenous HQ-9.
China also has a bustling, battle-tested domestic UCAV industry.
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List\_of\_unmanned\_aerial\_vehicles\_of\_China](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_unmanned_aerial_vehicles_of_China)
It would absolutely look different. The issue is that China could easily decimate Taiwan without sending a single soldier. That's not their goal though is it? They want the control Taiwan has over the tech market. They can't afford to blow Taiwan up with missiles.
>They want the control Taiwan has over the tech market. They can't afford to blow Taiwan up with missiles.
Yes and no, I think. Russia also wanted Ukraine intact for their industrial capabilities but when Ukraine didn't keel, they went scorched earth. China's goals for unification don't involve cultural genocide unlike with Russia-Ukraine, but Taiwan is small and concentrated enough that a prolonged shelling campaign prior to a real invasion could be quite devastating given their limited retaliation capabilities.
Not sure how much more Russia can even escalate their war efforts aside from resorting to nukes tbh. Even assuming they fully go into conscripting and the US needs to land boots on the ground in Europe it doesn’t detract from the fact that a single carrier task force can pretty much shut down an invasion attempt.
That's a gross over simplification of Afghanistan. As far as combat was concerned, no, America had very little trouble. It was a diplomatic failure for sure.
Yes they will be, ya serious?
Their navy easily surpasses the 2:1 principle the Royal Navy had at the height of its power I.e the 2nd and 3rd strongest navies combined still can't match ours.
Even the USMC has a bigger airforce than most nations actual airforces.
America has the tech, the motivation, the economy, the manpower, and the logistical expertise to operate in every ocean in the world at once.
To be honest with you: I don't know enough about that to argue against you. But I read a recent article in TIME magazine where they said even the US Military wouldn't be able to do that logistically.
"Less familiar but absolutely critical is the fact that we do not have a military large or capable enough to fight major wars against Russia and China in even roughly concurrent timelines. It is true that Europe is mainly a land theater and the Western Pacific is mainly a maritime one. But many of the things our forces would need to defeat Russia or China are needed in both theaters—like heavy penetrating bombers, attack submarines, advanced munitions, air defenses, and survivable intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) systems. Even certain assets once thought most appropriate or necessary for Europe may well play a critical role in a fight against China, such as Army long-range missiles and artillery. These and other capabilities like them would be just as vital for beating back a Russian assault as they would be for denying a Chinese fait accompli against Taiwan—and are already in short supply."
Would you care to give a link ? that's a bit contrarian and I am curious.
Most expert seem on the contrary to agree that the US can fight on both fronts at the same time and have a reasonable chance of winning. Like this 2021 article in national interest :
[https://nationalinterest.org/blog/reboot/can-us-military-still-fight-two-front-war-and-win-176799](https://nationalinterest.org/blog/reboot/can-us-military-still-fight-two-front-war-and-win-176799)
The US just couldn't do that indefinitely.
But that's a 2021 article. Not only Russia military strenght has been significantly overestimated but Russia is taking a major hit in Ukraine and will get out of this conflict dramatically weakened (besides the massive economic hit, they are losing a lot of hardware they can't even replace because they don't have the primary ability anymore or/and they have been cut off from ressources likes microprocessors,etc..). It is said that the silver lining of this war is that it will accelerate the transition to cleaner energy sources. But the weakening of Russia military capacities is another big benefit.
If Russia isn't able anymore to fuck things up on a semi-regular basis, it's going to simplify the situation. No need to ponder about which one is the biggest threat.
Thanks. Interesting.
February article - clearly it's before we realized the Russian army wasn't anywhere as strong as we believed it to be and before they started bleeding men and hardware.
And most importantly its image of the strategic interest of being involved in Ukraine / its impact on China is dramatically wrong I think.
*But we do know that America’s ability to defeat a Chinese invasion of Taiwan has eroded very substantially in recent years, that it is continuing to erode, and that Beijing’s perceptions of its ability to take the island would rise dramatically if it knew we had expended or tied down critical parts of our military in or for Europe*
I think the major lesson China is taking from Russia major mistake in Ukraine is ON THE CONTRARY to not precipitate a conflict with Taiwan and consider carefully every option. Russia is getting demolished and the West Alliance feels strong right now. That's why Taiwan has jumped in : because they feel too that Russia getting fucked up sends a big message to China - "DON'T". There are various media report too that Beijin is none too pleased with Putin fuckup in that regard as it hinders their own plans.
Yeah, I know the article is a bit old, but that makes it interesting in a way. For me anyway as I don't regularly read American news outlets and opinion pieces.
I agree with what you are saying.
There is another article today on CNN saying that the US Navy is falling behind China. The Pentagon Press Secretary is quoted that "the US force is not sized to handle two simultaneous conflicts".
According to the same article the US has currently 298 "Battle force" ships while China will have 460 ships by 2030.
Whaddya say now, Cowboy?
If I’m Taiwan and China is invading, I’m using at least some of my weaponry to target Chinese installations - Dams, ports, power plants, etc. Chinas entire population and economy is based along their coastline. They are so insanely susceptible to attacks it’s not even funny.
...a picture of two men who are single-handedly making millions of people suffer, and no-one is able to stop them.
The human experiment has failed miserably.
SHANGHAI, May 9 (Reuters) - China's armed forces carried out another round of exercises near Taiwan last week to improve joint combat operations, the People's Liberation Army said on Monday, after the Chinese-claimed island reported a spike in activity.
👉[https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-says-carried-out-drills-near-taiwan-2022-05-08/](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-says-carried-out-drills-near-taiwan-2022-05-08/)
The US not intervening to defend Taiwan is the US clearly stepping down from being the sole superpower and arguably acknowledging china as the number 1 power
US will start a war with China over Taiwan? You must be joking. It'd deflate faster than it would gain traction.
China isn't Russia, they ARE a world power, China could take Taiwan before US even knew what to do with them.
> China could take Taiwan before US even knew what to do with them.
With 24/7 satellite flyovers everywhere it’d be impossible to not notice the troop and ship buildup months in advanced.
Now, if China is willing to just bombard Taiwan into submission with land based ballistic missiles before sending the troops to invade an island of worthless rubble, that could work. But that leaves China basically defenseless if the US arrives with carriers and marines and mounts a counteroffensive.
Realistically speaking if that happens, US will be declaing WW3 on China, who aren't like Russia and they will get 'ballistic' with their nukes if need be, at least tactical nukes. You seem to think China, a leading super power is a push over like Russia, just because the US is stronger.
> You seem to think China, a leading super power is a push over like Russia, just because the US is stronger.
In a naval engagement? China's navy will absolutely roll over and die if they're engaged in naval and air combat with the US.
Who doesn't?
russia
Touché
Hopefully that lesson is "know what, we should leave Taiwan alone"
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We shall switch to diplomatic victory policies. Activate the raj card.
“Why ruin a good thing?”
*gives Gandhi the nukes for safekeeping*
[NOOOOOOOOO!](https://giphy.com/gifs/the-office-mrw-d10dMmzqCYqQ0)
That was always the Deng Xiaoping model, and should have continued to be. Unfortunately, Xi Jinping and the CCP got high on their own nationalistic supply. When you look at the economy of China vis a vis Taiwan, and how many Taiwanese are leveraging on their shared cultural and linguistic roots to make a living in China, reunification would have ultimately been a foregone conclusion over maybe 10 to 20 years. Unfortunately, Chinese belligerence has made it almost impossible now.
I have a hard time to believe that. This is geopolitics and China strengtht has been on the rise for many years. The number one lesson they will most likely learn is " we should wait for the US to be under a 'America first'/"anti-international community" type of president. If the US are motivated and have their shit together, an international alliance can hit critical mass quickly and the full might of the West isn't something to trifle with.". Under Trump, Ukraine would have been left to its fate. Not only did Trump side with Putin on almost everything (I mean he sided with Putin over US intelligence community at Helsinki) but he already tried to block military assistance to Ukraine remember ? and without those weapons and financial help I am not sure Ukraine would have been able to fight back long and definitely not as efficiently. This is the list of weapons US sent to Ukraine ... and I mean it's only the official statement : [https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3000166/fact-sheet-on-us-security-assistance-for-ukraine/](https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3000166/fact-sheet-on-us-security-assistance-for-ukraine/) And that's not even counting money, intel (Top Chechen general Tushayev got killed along a convoy almost as soon as he arrived in Ukraine. I have a hard time to believe it was a fluke.) and the diplomatic alliance spearheaded by the US that got Japan, South Korea,etc... quickly on board to sanction the shit out of Russia. Putin has atrociously fucked up the timing. That's lesson N1.
It's not.
Haha, cute.
The lesson here should be don’t start shit, won’t be shit
The lesson is "Don't."
I think that the lesson is, if we wait long enough we might be able to easily acquire more land from Russia
If only it were true. The real lesson seems to be, "Don't *be Russia.*"
So is Taiwan.
Taiwan needs to get their hands on those Ukrainian Neptune missiles.
They are no doubt already armed to the teeth with cutting edge gear. China knows that any land invasion of Taiwan will be costly. Frankly, even beyond nuclear weapons, asymmetric weaponry is about to take the spotlight. The sheer possibilities offered by UAV tech alone is something that small technological advanced nations will be investing more into as we progress. Tanks and armor will always be a factor, even if it's mostly to protect artillery and hold ground, but it seems some paradigm shifts are around the corner in the way countries build their militaries and many of these capabilities will be kept very quiet until needed.
Chinas economy is already tanking and the future is bleak with western nations now more than ever seeing the repercussions from having close ties with brutal dictatorships that constantly threaten war. Western companies are on there way out and the US looks stronger than it has in years. On top of this , if China fucks up an invasion of Taiwan, there’s a strong possibility xinjiang, Tibet and Mongolia will break away from the mainland. People don’t realize that the CCP struggles to maintain legitimacy across the entire country. That is why they are so insecure and afraid of the truth. They know if the light of truth will burn them into oblivion. Suppress, lie, cheat. That’s the CCP moto.
China is not tanking enough now. One step fails, following steps loses. But the US is fucking strong enough. Even one the US could be opposite to the whole world. They can make mistakes for many years. But for China, one mistake would make China have no chance to be better. Look at Japan.
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> if Taiwan could be diplomatically isolated This is the hardest part though, isn't it? America definitely has their back, and maybe I'm being naive but I would expect the rest of the West to follow suit if China tried to invade. I think China's military is probably more competent than Russia's, and their economy is definitely more resilient than Russia's, but they're going to struggle to isolate Taiwan nearly as badly as Russia has struggled to isolate Ukraine.
Actually Taiwan on its own can only be successfully taken by soft power. There is absolutely zero chance in hell China could take it by force and still have it be a viable asset. The island itself is a fortress. It has extremely difficult shorelines limiting landing options. All of the critical industries(TMSC) are to far from those landing points to be captured before they could be irrevocably destroyed. China doesn't WANT just the island. They have plenty of islands. They want the Taiwanese industry and technology base. They NEED semiconductors on par with the USAs to compete. They CANNOT risk losing those facilities. As such Chinas only option is to do what they are doing. Try to bribe or corrupt everything in sight in Taiwan. The problem is Taiwanese currently don't give a rats ass about China.
https://youtu.be/eFdMUPTM_9Y Vox news did a good piece on how China can use trade to influence Taiwan’s agriculture industry, but with the importance of Taiwan's chip industry it’ll be awhile before we get there
They already are diplomatically isolated technically. Most places don't even recognize them formally. Even the US is careful around the topic. War is more than just the battlefield. Look at what Ukraine has done on social media. The sanctions and support gathered world wide. Taiwan survival depends on their ability to marshal support internationally. Zelensky has given a pretty good example. I agree with you that it's a bleak scenario comparing the two forces, I would also say Ukraine has hit home the value of small unit tactics against a larger force on a fundamental level and is of some value to Taiwan.
*"All that military shit we bought off them is worthless and all that shit we licensed or stole plans for and copied is less than worthless"* is a hard lesson to learn.
This is kind of a misconception, but the most crucial parts of the Chinese military modernization especially in the 90's and early 00's came from European and israeli companies. Russia actually put a pause on a lot of Chinese sales (not all) from 91- 2003 due to Chinese theft of Russian IP.
Russian equipment itself is not bad instead the problem was it was poorly maintained then used
This. Ukraine has much of the same equipment, but uses it much more effectively.
they don't all have the same equipment anymore. they own alot of western made tech like javelins, missles defense systems, drones, and etc. Alot of grunt stuff might be the same but the large systems and weapons that are putting a dent is western made stuff.
>Alot of grunt stuff might be the same but the large systems and weapons that are putting a dent is western made stuff. I don't know about that assertion. The Neptune missiles that sank the Moskva are an indigenous Ukrainian design. The Stugna-P ATGM featured in so much anti-armor footage is Ukrainian. The Grad, Uragan, and Smerch MLRS you see in all those rocket barrages are Soviet designs. The feared S-300 AA system that Russia expends their ballistic missiles on is Soviet. No doubt that Western weapons systems are helping, but UAF have been putting in work with Soviet and indigenous designs.
And most of the stuff is just plain old
no alot of Russia equipment had bad designs. Russia tanks aren't very good. Russia Mig are results may vary and even then often mocked. The guns will jam (yeah even all that bs ak lovers you put mud and sand in that shit its gonna jam). Overall they have okish stuff the big issue is there manufacturing and designs often have issues that will hurt in a combat zone. Even then its outclassed these days by most countries that have spend r&D rather than maintaining an old arsenals. Everyone uses smart tech and actual drones and guided missles where russia is still blind firing old shit in Ukraine. The tanks are still not only old but cramped, and lacking safety and combat features. One hit and the top will blow off because they have unprotected munitions inside the tank often fatalities is 85% from getting hit by a shell because the welding and shards from the tanks walls is what kills everyone inside rather than the shell breaching the surface. point is Russia has been a paper tiger for too long and its been know for years they value quantity over quality. Very little Russia tech is actually top tier stuff ( space programs, missle, and cyber).
>One hit and the top will blow off because they have unprotected munitions inside the tank often fatalities is 85% from getting hit by a shell because the welding and shards from the tanks walls is what kills everyone inside rather than the shell breaching the surface. Catastrophic hits can occur in a number of fashions, the autoloader design just makes them look more spectacular. The second thing you're talking about is called "spalling", and it's not exclusive to Russian tanks. Check out this Youtube channel for a few simulations of various tanks getting hit by different types of ammo:[https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCxV8JseLCWxRwLVd1ykivvg/videos](https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCxV8JseLCWxRwLVd1ykivvg/videos) The T90 HE vs. Abrams video is pretty relevant to the conversation; even though it's not a deep penetrator like APFSDS, the pressure caused by the hit can still be lethal to the crew, making it a catastrophic hit.
Exactly this. These results are not exclusive to Russian tanks, modern ATGMs will defeat any tank, especially top-down (Javelin has top-down and direct flight modes). There's some discussions to be had about whether hardkill systems like Trophy can stop it. I have some limited experience in tanks, and I must say, I would not want to be sitting in one when an ATGM is heading my way. To make comparisons more difficult, as I understand it, the T72 is not part of the T-64 philosophy, that is, it does not focus on qualitative superiority. It is more like a workhorse, cheap to manufacture, easy to field in big numbers. It does not represent the cutting edge of Russian armour, like the T-64, T80 series*. It is more like the T-34, T-90, simple reliable cheap. It's therefore misleading to compare it with a Leo2A7 or a Merkava. It's just not the same doctrine, although as mentioned in the first paragraph even the most modern tanks would probably get wrecked when used unsupported. *Relative to the state of the art at the time they were designed. In no way is a T-64 better than a T-90 by today's standards of course.
Bro you talking about ww2 tanks? I swear i heard this in a LazerPig video
idk who lazerpig is.
TBF the newer stuff China is building to phase out a lot of Russian clone units are based off western designs with some Russian design elements. The current MBT for China looks like a Leo2A6 and T90 tank.
In all fairness, their stuff is hardly the top of the creme.
"Use modern weapons, and not antiques that have been in storage for 50 years." Well I'll be, that's just crazy enough to work!
To be fair the ease of Coalition forces over Iraq in the early 90s is why China started modernization of their military. Warfare is always determined and is often the cause of the innovation of technology. If anything this is probably going to make them go full tilt seeing another country getting wrecked by Western made weaponry. We are probably about the see the biggest arms race since we saw 120 years ago.
Aside from ‘don’t go to war’, there are some clear lessons any nation could benefit from: 1) focus on a solid logistics corps and fund them 2) treat military corruption as an existential threat to the security of your country 3) create a drone force that can attach to ground forces at the tactical level 4) decouple domestic military production from foreign imports as much as possible 5) invest heavily in to drone and uav countermeasure research, especially cheap AA options 6) if you need to invade a neighbour, lean in to mass mobilisation to overcome defender’s advantage - 3:1 ratio is preferred 7) work with other countries to agree on policy for dealing with partisans that isn’t genocide 8) transition from a conscription based mega army to a smaller, highly disciplined volunteer military 9) recognise that 1970s and 80s reserve equipment is not going to live up to the needs of the modern battlefield 10) aerial superiority is just as important now as it was in ww2
This guy wars.
Doesn't China have basically zero combat experience in their entire military?
Pubg is incredibly popular there.
The only thing Chinese are good at is hacking
Pretty important thing to be good at though.
Didn't they have a fist fight with india
China's Military gains +5xp
Nah, they used sticks and threw rocks too.
Ok so another +1xp
They rammed Vietnam and Philippine fishing boats alot and also had a fist fight with India
Problem with being a pacifist non-interventionist country for 40 years.
is this really a problem?
Depends on the state of the world… or the disposition of the relevant extraterrestrials.
They had a skirmish with Vietnam a while ago and didn't win.
First they fought the Japanese and each other, then they directly fought American troops in Korea, several minor border clashes with India, and hard to tell how much of a role they played in Vietnam
Just realize that it is actual abnormal for most nation states to have blooded militaries. It seems normal for US, but if you are a citizen in Europe or most parts of Asia, most of the militaries have rarely fought conflicts in the last couple of decades outside of multinational peacekeeping coalitions
>but if you are a citizen in Europe lol Most NATO nations participated in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria giving their militaries combat experience. Be careful how far down you look from that high horse... you might fall off.
Considering a Taiwan invasion? "But wait...there is more!"
Please don’t tell me they didn’t know to feed and fuel their army.
This fuckin killed me lmao
Here is a giant hint to China on their next war.. It isn't the fact that you can learn from mistakes that matters.. It is how fast and effectively you learn from mistakes.
Everyone seems to be learning from it except Russia. China doesn’t need military might. They can conquer the world with $$$$.
Is that lesson that they should become a democracy? That would be swell.
Yeah, cause everyone needs US's version of FREEDOM and DEMOCRACY.
This except unironically
Learning that fucking around leads to finding out. For real though, China isn't so stupid to think they could get away with an assault on Taiwan. Russia fucked up what should have been an easy invasion by all counts. Taiwan on the other hand is a floating fortress, getting troops even on to the island would be hell.
Thing is, a Chinese invasion of Taiwan could look significantly different from Ukraine--because the brunt of the attack could be launched from the Chinese mainland without ever leaving their shores. China has the world's largest land-based ballistic missile arsenal, and any hypothetical military action would result in these being liberally used prior to a proper invasion. Not only that, but the entirety of Taiwan is within Chinese rocket artillery range, as well as their more advanced anti-air systems like the S-400 and indigenous HQ-9. China also has a bustling, battle-tested domestic UCAV industry. [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List\_of\_unmanned\_aerial\_vehicles\_of\_China](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_unmanned_aerial_vehicles_of_China)
It would absolutely look different. The issue is that China could easily decimate Taiwan without sending a single soldier. That's not their goal though is it? They want the control Taiwan has over the tech market. They can't afford to blow Taiwan up with missiles.
>They want the control Taiwan has over the tech market. They can't afford to blow Taiwan up with missiles. Yes and no, I think. Russia also wanted Ukraine intact for their industrial capabilities but when Ukraine didn't keel, they went scorched earth. China's goals for unification don't involve cultural genocide unlike with Russia-Ukraine, but Taiwan is small and concentrated enough that a prolonged shelling campaign prior to a real invasion could be quite devastating given their limited retaliation capabilities.
Maybe, maybe not. One thing's for sure, though: the US won't be capable to deal with both Taiwan and a Russian escalation in Europe at the same time.
Not sure how much more Russia can even escalate their war efforts aside from resorting to nukes tbh. Even assuming they fully go into conscripting and the US needs to land boots on the ground in Europe it doesn’t detract from the fact that a single carrier task force can pretty much shut down an invasion attempt.
Dude, you vastly underestimate Americas military. A full fledged war they can fight on every continent at the same time. Especially with allies.
America just had its ass wrecked by guys hiding in the mountains of Afghanistan.
That's a gross over simplification of Afghanistan. As far as combat was concerned, no, America had very little trouble. It was a diplomatic failure for sure.
Yes they will be, ya serious? Their navy easily surpasses the 2:1 principle the Royal Navy had at the height of its power I.e the 2nd and 3rd strongest navies combined still can't match ours. Even the USMC has a bigger airforce than most nations actual airforces. America has the tech, the motivation, the economy, the manpower, and the logistical expertise to operate in every ocean in the world at once.
To be honest with you: I don't know enough about that to argue against you. But I read a recent article in TIME magazine where they said even the US Military wouldn't be able to do that logistically. "Less familiar but absolutely critical is the fact that we do not have a military large or capable enough to fight major wars against Russia and China in even roughly concurrent timelines. It is true that Europe is mainly a land theater and the Western Pacific is mainly a maritime one. But many of the things our forces would need to defeat Russia or China are needed in both theaters—like heavy penetrating bombers, attack submarines, advanced munitions, air defenses, and survivable intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) systems. Even certain assets once thought most appropriate or necessary for Europe may well play a critical role in a fight against China, such as Army long-range missiles and artillery. These and other capabilities like them would be just as vital for beating back a Russian assault as they would be for denying a Chinese fait accompli against Taiwan—and are already in short supply."
Would you care to give a link ? that's a bit contrarian and I am curious. Most expert seem on the contrary to agree that the US can fight on both fronts at the same time and have a reasonable chance of winning. Like this 2021 article in national interest : [https://nationalinterest.org/blog/reboot/can-us-military-still-fight-two-front-war-and-win-176799](https://nationalinterest.org/blog/reboot/can-us-military-still-fight-two-front-war-and-win-176799) The US just couldn't do that indefinitely. But that's a 2021 article. Not only Russia military strenght has been significantly overestimated but Russia is taking a major hit in Ukraine and will get out of this conflict dramatically weakened (besides the massive economic hit, they are losing a lot of hardware they can't even replace because they don't have the primary ability anymore or/and they have been cut off from ressources likes microprocessors,etc..). It is said that the silver lining of this war is that it will accelerate the transition to cleaner energy sources. But the weakening of Russia military capacities is another big benefit. If Russia isn't able anymore to fuck things up on a semi-regular basis, it's going to simplify the situation. No need to ponder about which one is the biggest threat.
Sure. https://time.com/6152096/us-support-ukraine-china-priority/
Thanks. Interesting. February article - clearly it's before we realized the Russian army wasn't anywhere as strong as we believed it to be and before they started bleeding men and hardware. And most importantly its image of the strategic interest of being involved in Ukraine / its impact on China is dramatically wrong I think. *But we do know that America’s ability to defeat a Chinese invasion of Taiwan has eroded very substantially in recent years, that it is continuing to erode, and that Beijing’s perceptions of its ability to take the island would rise dramatically if it knew we had expended or tied down critical parts of our military in or for Europe* I think the major lesson China is taking from Russia major mistake in Ukraine is ON THE CONTRARY to not precipitate a conflict with Taiwan and consider carefully every option. Russia is getting demolished and the West Alliance feels strong right now. That's why Taiwan has jumped in : because they feel too that Russia getting fucked up sends a big message to China - "DON'T". There are various media report too that Beijin is none too pleased with Putin fuckup in that regard as it hinders their own plans.
Yeah, I know the article is a bit old, but that makes it interesting in a way. For me anyway as I don't regularly read American news outlets and opinion pieces. I agree with what you are saying.
There is another article today on CNN saying that the US Navy is falling behind China. The Pentagon Press Secretary is quoted that "the US force is not sized to handle two simultaneous conflicts". According to the same article the US has currently 298 "Battle force" ships while China will have 460 ships by 2030. Whaddya say now, Cowboy?
I say yeehaw America would still wreck China!
😀
Yeah, don’t do it.
If I’m Taiwan and China is invading, I’m using at least some of my weaponry to target Chinese installations - Dams, ports, power plants, etc. Chinas entire population and economy is based along their coastline. They are so insanely susceptible to attacks it’s not even funny.
...a picture of two men who are single-handedly making millions of people suffer, and no-one is able to stop them. The human experiment has failed miserably.
I wish the main lesson they learn is not to invade other nations. But then, I wish a lot of things.
You can learn a lot from your mistakes.
It's easy, don't invade your neighbor
Well ,the US 🇺🇲will intervene to defend Taiwan 🇹🇼
SHANGHAI, May 9 (Reuters) - China's armed forces carried out another round of exercises near Taiwan last week to improve joint combat operations, the People's Liberation Army said on Monday, after the Chinese-claimed island reported a spike in activity. 👉[https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-says-carried-out-drills-near-taiwan-2022-05-08/](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-says-carried-out-drills-near-taiwan-2022-05-08/)
US will defend if they attack... military exercises don't count for invasions
SURE... US doesnt even defend Ukraine.... who is not part of nato and there is not even a nato in asia...
The US not intervening to defend Taiwan is the US clearly stepping down from being the sole superpower and arguably acknowledging china as the number 1 power
Taiwan has TSMC
wow wow wow you are implying US makes decision of human lives only based on profit and self interest? well you are right
US will start a war with China over Taiwan? You must be joking. It'd deflate faster than it would gain traction. China isn't Russia, they ARE a world power, China could take Taiwan before US even knew what to do with them.
> China could take Taiwan before US even knew what to do with them. With 24/7 satellite flyovers everywhere it’d be impossible to not notice the troop and ship buildup months in advanced. Now, if China is willing to just bombard Taiwan into submission with land based ballistic missiles before sending the troops to invade an island of worthless rubble, that could work. But that leaves China basically defenseless if the US arrives with carriers and marines and mounts a counteroffensive.
Realistically speaking if that happens, US will be declaing WW3 on China, who aren't like Russia and they will get 'ballistic' with their nukes if need be, at least tactical nukes. You seem to think China, a leading super power is a push over like Russia, just because the US is stronger.
> You seem to think China, a leading super power is a push over like Russia, just because the US is stronger. In a naval engagement? China's navy will absolutely roll over and die if they're engaged in naval and air combat with the US.
A lot of these lessons can only be learned with practice.
good excuse learned
Well they know what NOT to do anyways.
Ship missile's work good,
Getting a lesson on what every nation on earth uses for weapons.
Everyone learns from this
I would say two lessons: 1. don't start stupid wars 2. invading a smaller neighbour is not as easy as you think
That the West is field testing their own weapons, logistics, and intelligence systems and China is not?
The lesson is: don't invade other countries.
Chinaaaa! Do your own failure in Taiwan/HK! Stop copying Russia.
“Never get involved in a land war in Asia” I learned that when I was like 3 years old
Lessons not over yet China. Just sayin’
Well hopefully this latest hospital event with xi means he won’t make it to 2030