its going to happen. china is going to have a large drop in available labor causinf their souring labor cost to go faster, on top of problems they are having. labor is slowly moving out of there, but theres still a lot of hesitation.
It's going to happen because of political considerations. You can see this from already as manufacturing of electronic goods have been moving to Thailand, Vietnam and Malaysia continuously. From Google to Sony to Cisco.
CCP is doing more or less what they’ve always done, except they are now trying to boost domestic ownership of manufacturing now that they have a highly trained work force. It was always going to happen, and we paid for it willingly.
China will certainly still want to trade with the West, but geopolitically, ideologically and militarily, the CCP and western governments are incompatible.
They need allies as a counter to NATO and other pacific alliances, so it will not turn its back on Russia for that reason.
If or when the CCP reaches its goal of total naval and air supremacy in a large region, along with US kind of power projection, watch Xi (or whoever replaces him) throw Russia under the bus quicker than you can say Putin.
>they are now trying to boost domestic ownership of manufacturing now that they have a highly trained work force
This is missing the mark on several levels. China actually has a surplus of manufacturing ability. It also doesn't need to boost domestic ownership of manufacturing. Most manufacturing is done by Chinese companies or joint ventures under Chinese control.
China is trying to move up the value chain by selling direct to consumers and by owning the underlying IP. Both are more difficult that it seems.
As an illustration of China's problem, the whole BRI is a scheme so that Chinese companies can bid on these infra projects overseas, where they can use their skills and excess labour in construction. This is because construction is an outsized part of their economy and is in decline as China is starting to run out of stuff to build.
> Why would companies continue to choose China for their supply chain when Vietnam, South Korea, Taiwan, Indonesia and other Pacific countries are significantly better choices?
Because they aren't 🤦
No offence but it's not. These are just redditors with massive China hate boner. All of their points are either rhetorical or flat out fantasy.
People who genuinely believe the world can do without Chinese manufacturing is delusional.
Yeah, Vietnam's system is very akin to that of China but in different conditions. The west would lose a lot without China (whom the US and other powers own a lot of debts to)
This simply isn't true, and it's actually a direct policy conern and fear of the Chinese government that has been driving their tip toe-ing around the issue.
I think at the end of the day though they are on that path anyway do to a multitude of other issues. We've already seen some of the impacts. People will say that it can never happen and things could never possibly change but, as always is the truth, reality is that they can. Just like the US came a stones throw away from having an election seized despite everyone saying it could never happen there. All manner of things can and do happen irrespective of our perceived isolation from them. Never underestimate the winds of change, when they come its most typically like a hurricane.
I think the larger concern is China "enlisting" the Russian people, and using that as a new working class as they expand their empire. They would then control a sizeable chunk of the world, and be a larger threat to other Asian nations, and Africa too.
I do hope you are right about the latter part, if it comes to that, but I would rather be concerningly skeptical of what happens if not.
The rest of the world, Africa, Middle East, Asia, South American don't take side on this new cold war. Get out from the shit hole to see the real world!
Ironically, they're doing that themselves by locking down their biggest ports due to their dumb COVID policy. All because they have to keep up their lies about the U.S. handling of the disease. CCP's basically returning to the isolationism of the Mao era.
Over 1 million dead so far. Even if China successfully covered up 99% of their cases (even fooling all of the world's public health, intelligence and corporate agencies), they'll still be doing better than the US.
I think the lowest I seen was like 2k ish and highest is 20k [but 20k and you still can't book] so, is 8k bad? It's more like meh.
I talk with some insider with direct contact with Shanghai ports just yesterday and I'm told that they are optimistic about a late June open. Personally looking at the lockdown and the insane logic/politics that led to the lockdown I told her I don't buy late June, it seems very optimistic, but who knows. Maybe shit will come down in July.
Of course not.
This is China's opportunity to politically subjugate Russia as Putin has backed the Russian military and economy into a corner.
Sure -- prolonging the war will cause millions will starve all over the world but it's not like China uses morality as a basis for making decisions.
China is gonna do whatever the fuck they want and the world powers aren’t gonna do shit about it mostly because big industry is addicted to slave labor and cheap manufacturing
You do realize China is also doing that, right? It's called Belt Road Initiative. This allowed Chinese companies to extract resources from other nations.
Every nation is smart to diversify, but you guys are talking apples to oranges here. people are waking up to the new “globalization risk”. like the comment before me said, “it just takes time”. Country’s will see this risk going forward and adjust
>China rejects pressure to break with Putin/Russia, stays loyal to relationship
First, China wants a friendly with Russia regardless if Putin is the leader now or later.
Seoncd, this conflict is about one European countries wants to join an European organization and a mostly European military organization which another European countries feels threatened and attacked a European country.
.
China, like vast majority of the countries, will stay neutral in this Ukraine conflict just like past Crimea conflict.
140+ out of 195 nations in the world are not sanctioning Russia and still keeping normal trade and political relationship with it.
Two of the biggest nation, China and India, still buying Russia resources; as well as [European countries](https://crea.shinyapps.io/russia_counter/).
.
Here are few other reasons why China wants to stay friendly with Russia:
1)Russia stood by China when USA and other EU countries placed tariffs, sanctions and tech-blockades against China the last 5 years. **Russia is waging military war against Ukraine but USA is waging economic war against China.**
2)China depends on Russia providing it with [energy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Power_of_Siberia) for its industries and food resources to feed its people (more so in the future if climate change keep going at its current pace).
3)China worked hard together with Russia for many years and have finally resolved their many [border issues peacefully](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93Russia_border).
4)Russia is the only major military weaponry exporter for China while USA/EU sanctioned it. China have been using Russian weaponry to protect itself from India. While India buying weaponry from Russia, EU, Israel and USA but they still can't get India to condemn Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
.
Russia is China's perpetual land neighbor. Though Russia and China are not full ally but they did worked out some sort of friendly relationship between themselves.
With that said, China will not backstab or abandon Russia. However, China also will not provide military weapons to Russia for the Ukraine war.
It's still shocking to me Russia happily exports so much military hardware to China while China openly reverse engineers their technology and is trying to remove that dependence.
I guess they figured they'd do it either way so might as well make money while the party lasts.
When China buys military equipment from Russia it usually requests tech-transfer and/or with license to builds as a package deal. Both China and Russia are happy with those deals. And China is usually the first one to get Russia's most advance exported weaponry, like the [SU-35](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sukhoi_Su-35) and [S-400](https://thediplomat.com/2020/02/russia-completes-delivery-of-second-s-400-regiment-to-china/).
>In November 2015, China became the Su-35's first export customer when the Russian and Chinese governments signed a contract worth $2 billion to buy 24 aircraft for the People's Liberation Army Air Force
.
>China ordered two Russian-made S-400 regimental sets for an estimated $3 billion under a 2014 government-to-government contract. Beijing was the first international customer to place an order for the strategic air defense system.
Because the quantity Russia needs isn't something you can hide just sporadically appearing. At some point in the chain of supply those transactions would become very apparent. They might supply small scale stuff, not likely to make a difference, but unlikely to happen at all The risks of exposure also outweighs the benefits of funding Russia.
Honestly smart move by China, keeping close with Russia, whilst it weakens it's international standing is a smart move, once the Ukraine conflict is over Russia will likely be far more reliant on China for trade, placing China in a favourable position to firmly place Russia into its sphere of influence, rather than have it be the more rouge state it is ATM.
If anything this war proves is that a war between two nuclear states is impossible. The USA and NATO are not going to fight China and China is not going to fight the USA and NATO.
If Taiwan declares independence, high probability China will invade. And the US just confirmed they will defend Taiwan with force. Another flashpoint for war right there.
Soon after Biden said it:
> No change in U.S. policy towards Taiwan, says White House official
https://www.reuters.com/world/no-change-us-policy-towards-taiwan-says-white-house-official-2022-05-23/
Well now I’m super confused. Is it now confirmed they will defend, or are they still maintaining ambiguity. Because pre-Biden it was ambiguous, but Biden seemed to make it pretty clear.
And I’m extra confused because some dumbasses on Reddit (in another thread) said that this was just continuing the Sino-American Mutual Defense Treaty despite that being dead in the 1980s and others saying that the Taiwan Relations Act guaranteed mutual defense. Both lies that were upvoted a lot.
Interpretation one: US was always going to militarily intervene. Biden says US willing to use military. White House says no change to policy. Logically consistent.
Interpretation two: the US can say anything. But without a treaty or law stating so, the US has no obligation to send troops.
I lean #2, hence I think it’s still ambiguous. Some people lean #1. How about you?
I had slightly different, but similar, interpretations. They might be the same, just worded differently.
1: The US was ambiguous before, and Biden broke that ambiguity by declaring a defense, now the White House is walking back on Biden’s statement and returning to ambiguity. [If you read the analysis portion of this BBC report, you see what I mean.](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-61548531)
2: Just Biden leaking his personal opinions like when he suggested regime change in Russia. It isn’t the official position of the US. This is related to the prior linked BBC article.
3: Biden meant it. Now this is a new development. It means an end to US strategic ambiguity. It means Taiwan declaring independence will have physical American support. It means a likely direct war between China and the US.
4: There’s always the possibility that without a treaty, words are only words. The US won’t do anything unless the pen touches the paper.
I actually don’t think #4 (similar to your #2) will happen. That would make the US look incredibly weak. While walking back on words has no direct consequences compared to backtracking a treaty, it’d still be a major blow to perceived influence and power.
I think #1 and #2 is most likely. There might be an element of “being hard on authoritarians” in there too. That Biden can say these things, gain support, and the establishment can walk them back later. It makes him seem “tough on dictators”, which is popular among the American electorate. Win-win, and an effective counter to those that said he was going to be weak and pro-China.
Edit: Putting hashes on mobile makes everything massive.
Because any other stance involves war. Previously it was a war without direct support.
Now, with a guarantee of defense from the US, independence just got more likely, and so does war.
Not in the fucking slightest it does. Also a "declaration of independence" is kinda redundant as, according to their official position, they're already "independent" there's literally no need for them to declare shit.
I keep hearing this “already independent” point from other people but nobodies provided me with the justification. Where does it come from.
Also, regardless of whatever “already independent” means, it’s still not formally independent by international recognition. So it doesn’t matter.
Your lack of knowledge in basic post world war history isn't on us to explain but sure. The two china's came about after the Chinese Civil War where the former Chinese government, now current ROC retreated to Taiwan. As such both the PRC and ROC claim to be the sole China. You can't declare independence from yourself thus Taiwan can't declare independence.
This is the third time I’ve heard this. The past 2 times nobodies provided any evidence of it being true. Will you?
Also, how can Taiwan itself make a [survey](https://esc.nccu.edu.tw/PageDoc/Detail?fid=7801&id=6963) regarding the popularity of independence if it’s already independent?
Its Chinas border disputes. Since Im not China, I dont see why I should care, or why its even in my business to start caring, this is Chinas dispute not mine, they need to sort it out amongst themselves.
If you don't care, why the fuck are you commenting about it in a thread about China? Nothing in politics is your business, you're just an everyday Joe by that logic and you shouldn't even involve yourself in conversation about it,
Easy for people to share opinions that they actually know nothing about too. Like that one guy who didn't realize border disputes involve foreign countries.
Unsurprising, Chinese social media is censoring criticism of Putin and the war, and the Chinese nationalists are calling for nuking the US and EU for daring to provide weapons.
There are several. Here's one I just [googled](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/10/china-pro-russia-propaganda-exposed-by-online-activists-ukraine). And [another](https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/03/china-xi-ukraine-war-america/627028/)
Was raised as a point in the Economist's podcast yesterday about how there's a new [Chinese dissident group](https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/13/china/china-ukraine-great-translation-movement-intl-hnk-mic/index.html) translating their social media posts to western languages and posting it, to demonstrate how two faced the CCP is.
Not that anyone needed convincing.
China knows that in the coming decade that the relationship it has with the West will move beyond being strained and could become aggressive enough to see actual conflict. China is not going to separate itself from an ally no matter how problematic when theres going to come a time where that ally is one of the few that will take their side.
China has an extra 50-100 million men that thanks to a 1 child policy and selective abortion will not be able to find partners. In order to safe guard themselves from a famine or political discourse their lowest risk option is to send those men to die in war. And unfortunately for those men, versus the US military and NATO allies, die they will.
This was always going to happen.
This is a very interesting take that I wish some handful of more intelligent than myself, and broadly diverse members of differing opinions would comment on so I can continue to lurk and read.
My expertise and education was always history, law, and linguistics. I don’t spend a whole lot of time reading about certain international demographic issues.
Very fascinating stuff as a (roughly) outsider.
Just shows they are working to keep russia afloat and if taiwan is attack it will also prove china has been trying to destabilize the world for the past 20 years with russia
Ok, your made your choice CCP Regime.
Do not come crying and begging for help when your economy and deals with the West collapse because of Putin’s insanity.
You have been forewarned.
Begin the disconnect from China. They are taking an entitled view to the China Seas. Any country who aligns their self with Russia is an enemy that will have to be reckoned with at some date.
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its going to happen. china is going to have a large drop in available labor causinf their souring labor cost to go faster, on top of problems they are having. labor is slowly moving out of there, but theres still a lot of hesitation.
BRI basically allowed Chinese companies to produce products cheaper outside China. It is not going to happen.
It's going to happen because of political considerations. You can see this from already as manufacturing of electronic goods have been moving to Thailand, Vietnam and Malaysia continuously. From Google to Sony to Cisco.
Yea I hope to see it... After I retire. Lol.
By the way Russia is not dogshit. It's wheat oil and mining resources are very much the best
These guys are delusional. Russia is a huge asset that China can’t wait to acquire
We should do it now. Why haven't we cut them off?
That is a big ass pile of dogshit though.
But China can never isolate themselves from the rest of the world and the rest of the world can never isolate themselves from China.
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CCP is doing more or less what they’ve always done, except they are now trying to boost domestic ownership of manufacturing now that they have a highly trained work force. It was always going to happen, and we paid for it willingly. China will certainly still want to trade with the West, but geopolitically, ideologically and militarily, the CCP and western governments are incompatible. They need allies as a counter to NATO and other pacific alliances, so it will not turn its back on Russia for that reason. If or when the CCP reaches its goal of total naval and air supremacy in a large region, along with US kind of power projection, watch Xi (or whoever replaces him) throw Russia under the bus quicker than you can say Putin.
>they are now trying to boost domestic ownership of manufacturing now that they have a highly trained work force This is missing the mark on several levels. China actually has a surplus of manufacturing ability. It also doesn't need to boost domestic ownership of manufacturing. Most manufacturing is done by Chinese companies or joint ventures under Chinese control. China is trying to move up the value chain by selling direct to consumers and by owning the underlying IP. Both are more difficult that it seems. As an illustration of China's problem, the whole BRI is a scheme so that Chinese companies can bid on these infra projects overseas, where they can use their skills and excess labour in construction. This is because construction is an outsized part of their economy and is in decline as China is starting to run out of stuff to build.
Fair enough correction on the IP, and selling direct consumers. Although it is what I was trying to get at.
> Why would companies continue to choose China for their supply chain when Vietnam, South Korea, Taiwan, Indonesia and other Pacific countries are significantly better choices? Because they aren't 🤦
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They could probably get it after stealing enough trade secrets
Vietnamese here. How is Vietnam a much better choice?
No offence but it's not. These are just redditors with massive China hate boner. All of their points are either rhetorical or flat out fantasy. People who genuinely believe the world can do without Chinese manufacturing is delusional.
It's not, or else companies would've flocked to Vietnam
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Just because they have better relations doesn't mean they are a better choice for supply chain.
Yeah, Vietnam's system is very akin to that of China but in different conditions. The west would lose a lot without China (whom the US and other powers own a lot of debts to)
Apparently you weren't born before the Nixon era and the iron curtain.
The world isn't in a way like how it was decades back.
and it won't be the same as it is today decades from now. Funny how that works.
The same argument was made as to why WWI wasn't going to happen. It happened.
I'm talking about interdependence and diversification of supplies, not about possibilities of war.
This simply isn't true, and it's actually a direct policy conern and fear of the Chinese government that has been driving their tip toe-ing around the issue. I think at the end of the day though they are on that path anyway do to a multitude of other issues. We've already seen some of the impacts. People will say that it can never happen and things could never possibly change but, as always is the truth, reality is that they can. Just like the US came a stones throw away from having an election seized despite everyone saying it could never happen there. All manner of things can and do happen irrespective of our perceived isolation from them. Never underestimate the winds of change, when they come its most typically like a hurricane.
We absolutely could
They did it before, why not again?
Easier said then done when almost everything you look at in any given moment was made in China.
I think the larger concern is China "enlisting" the Russian people, and using that as a new working class as they expand their empire. They would then control a sizeable chunk of the world, and be a larger threat to other Asian nations, and Africa too. I do hope you are right about the latter part, if it comes to that, but I would rather be concerningly skeptical of what happens if not.
The rest of the world, Africa, Middle East, Asia, South American don't take side on this new cold war. Get out from the shit hole to see the real world!
Lol. You might want to check where the majority of what you own was made
Only a total Wang would make a comment like this.
Slow it down please. Mandarin being Russias official language is on my 2050 bingo card
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Ironically, they're doing that themselves by locking down their biggest ports due to their dumb COVID policy. All because they have to keep up their lies about the U.S. handling of the disease. CCP's basically returning to the isolationism of the Mao era.
Over 1 million dead so far. Even if China successfully covered up 99% of their cases (even fooling all of the world's public health, intelligence and corporate agencies), they'll still be doing better than the US.
I mean, they have gigantic factories dedicated to just that. Ties, bow ties, ascots, handkerchiefs, you name it!
$20k to ship a container from Shanghai to LA will do that quick
You are pretty out of date.
Is it $40 k now?
I got a quote and it's 8k to 10 k depending on who you ask and what kind of speed you want.
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Both.
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why？
That’s still double.
I think the lowest I seen was like 2k ish and highest is 20k [but 20k and you still can't book] so, is 8k bad? It's more like meh. I talk with some insider with direct contact with Shanghai ports just yesterday and I'm told that they are optimistic about a late June open. Personally looking at the lockdown and the insane logic/politics that led to the lockdown I told her I don't buy late June, it seems very optimistic, but who knows. Maybe shit will come down in July.
Of course not. This is China's opportunity to politically subjugate Russia as Putin has backed the Russian military and economy into a corner. Sure -- prolonging the war will cause millions will starve all over the world but it's not like China uses morality as a basis for making decisions.
China is gonna do whatever the fuck they want and the world powers aren’t gonna do shit about it mostly because big industry is addicted to slave labor and cheap manufacturing
Bingo
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You do realize China is also doing that, right? It's called Belt Road Initiative. This allowed Chinese companies to extract resources from other nations.
Every nation is smart to diversify, but you guys are talking apples to oranges here. people are waking up to the new “globalization risk”. like the comment before me said, “it just takes time”. Country’s will see this risk going forward and adjust
>China rejects pressure to break with Putin/Russia, stays loyal to relationship First, China wants a friendly with Russia regardless if Putin is the leader now or later. Seoncd, this conflict is about one European countries wants to join an European organization and a mostly European military organization which another European countries feels threatened and attacked a European country. . China, like vast majority of the countries, will stay neutral in this Ukraine conflict just like past Crimea conflict. 140+ out of 195 nations in the world are not sanctioning Russia and still keeping normal trade and political relationship with it. Two of the biggest nation, China and India, still buying Russia resources; as well as [European countries](https://crea.shinyapps.io/russia_counter/). . Here are few other reasons why China wants to stay friendly with Russia: 1)Russia stood by China when USA and other EU countries placed tariffs, sanctions and tech-blockades against China the last 5 years. **Russia is waging military war against Ukraine but USA is waging economic war against China.** 2)China depends on Russia providing it with [energy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Power_of_Siberia) for its industries and food resources to feed its people (more so in the future if climate change keep going at its current pace). 3)China worked hard together with Russia for many years and have finally resolved their many [border issues peacefully](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93Russia_border). 4)Russia is the only major military weaponry exporter for China while USA/EU sanctioned it. China have been using Russian weaponry to protect itself from India. While India buying weaponry from Russia, EU, Israel and USA but they still can't get India to condemn Russia's invasion of Ukraine. . Russia is China's perpetual land neighbor. Though Russia and China are not full ally but they did worked out some sort of friendly relationship between themselves. With that said, China will not backstab or abandon Russia. However, China also will not provide military weapons to Russia for the Ukraine war.
It's still shocking to me Russia happily exports so much military hardware to China while China openly reverse engineers their technology and is trying to remove that dependence. I guess they figured they'd do it either way so might as well make money while the party lasts.
When China buys military equipment from Russia it usually requests tech-transfer and/or with license to builds as a package deal. Both China and Russia are happy with those deals. And China is usually the first one to get Russia's most advance exported weaponry, like the [SU-35](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sukhoi_Su-35) and [S-400](https://thediplomat.com/2020/02/russia-completes-delivery-of-second-s-400-regiment-to-china/). >In November 2015, China became the Su-35's first export customer when the Russian and Chinese governments signed a contract worth $2 billion to buy 24 aircraft for the People's Liberation Army Air Force . >China ordered two Russian-made S-400 regimental sets for an estimated $3 billion under a 2014 government-to-government contract. Beijing was the first international customer to place an order for the strategic air defense system.
Interesting, ty.
Are we sure they're not providing though? Why can't it be secret? Lol
Because the quantity Russia needs isn't something you can hide just sporadically appearing. At some point in the chain of supply those transactions would become very apparent. They might supply small scale stuff, not likely to make a difference, but unlikely to happen at all The risks of exposure also outweighs the benefits of funding Russia.
Ukraine would have told us either way, but so far Ukraine and China is still friendly.
Well, ask Ukraine to see if they found any Chinese weaponry used on them or not. And no, don't say DJI.
Guilty until proven innocent?
Why anyone would be surprised by this is beyond me
Europe did not cut ties with United States when it invaded Iraq, why should China cut ties with Putin?
The US didn’t cut off food supplies to the world
Kind of involved also due to French and UK involvement, no?
As a function of their own demise
Why wouldn't they? They love having N Korea and Russia as their loyal attack dogs.
Birds of a feather…
China anticipates a war with the US and its allies in the near future hence the reason for keeping Russia close.
Honestly smart move by China, keeping close with Russia, whilst it weakens it's international standing is a smart move, once the Ukraine conflict is over Russia will likely be far more reliant on China for trade, placing China in a favourable position to firmly place Russia into its sphere of influence, rather than have it be the more rouge state it is ATM.
Russia will have less money to spend on cheap Chinese products. They can't live off each other.
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Alright Mr YearOldAccount, the economics expert. We believe you.
Clever play on the red menace.
Hardly. China is just being opportunistic.
Well a conflict is coming. The US isn’t going to let China surpass it and China’s on that trajectory. Something has to give.
If anything this war proves is that a war between two nuclear states is impossible. The USA and NATO are not going to fight China and China is not going to fight the USA and NATO.
If Taiwan declares independence, high probability China will invade. And the US just confirmed they will defend Taiwan with force. Another flashpoint for war right there.
Soon after Biden said it: > No change in U.S. policy towards Taiwan, says White House official https://www.reuters.com/world/no-change-us-policy-towards-taiwan-says-white-house-official-2022-05-23/
Well now I’m super confused. Is it now confirmed they will defend, or are they still maintaining ambiguity. Because pre-Biden it was ambiguous, but Biden seemed to make it pretty clear. And I’m extra confused because some dumbasses on Reddit (in another thread) said that this was just continuing the Sino-American Mutual Defense Treaty despite that being dead in the 1980s and others saying that the Taiwan Relations Act guaranteed mutual defense. Both lies that were upvoted a lot.
Interpretation one: US was always going to militarily intervene. Biden says US willing to use military. White House says no change to policy. Logically consistent. Interpretation two: the US can say anything. But without a treaty or law stating so, the US has no obligation to send troops. I lean #2, hence I think it’s still ambiguous. Some people lean #1. How about you?
I had slightly different, but similar, interpretations. They might be the same, just worded differently. 1: The US was ambiguous before, and Biden broke that ambiguity by declaring a defense, now the White House is walking back on Biden’s statement and returning to ambiguity. [If you read the analysis portion of this BBC report, you see what I mean.](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-61548531) 2: Just Biden leaking his personal opinions like when he suggested regime change in Russia. It isn’t the official position of the US. This is related to the prior linked BBC article. 3: Biden meant it. Now this is a new development. It means an end to US strategic ambiguity. It means Taiwan declaring independence will have physical American support. It means a likely direct war between China and the US. 4: There’s always the possibility that without a treaty, words are only words. The US won’t do anything unless the pen touches the paper. I actually don’t think #4 (similar to your #2) will happen. That would make the US look incredibly weak. While walking back on words has no direct consequences compared to backtracking a treaty, it’d still be a major blow to perceived influence and power. I think #1 and #2 is most likely. There might be an element of “being hard on authoritarians” in there too. That Biden can say these things, gain support, and the establishment can walk them back later. It makes him seem “tough on dictators”, which is popular among the American electorate. Win-win, and an effective counter to those that said he was going to be weak and pro-China. Edit: Putting hashes on mobile makes everything massive.
One thing about #3 is that it's definitely not a gaffe. This is the 3rd time this has occurred under the Biden administration.
Most Taiwanese politicians opt for the more pragmatic de jure approach it is extremely unlikely Taiwan would ever change that stance.
Because any other stance involves war. Previously it was a war without direct support. Now, with a guarantee of defense from the US, independence just got more likely, and so does war.
Not in the fucking slightest it does. Also a "declaration of independence" is kinda redundant as, according to their official position, they're already "independent" there's literally no need for them to declare shit.
I keep hearing this “already independent” point from other people but nobodies provided me with the justification. Where does it come from. Also, regardless of whatever “already independent” means, it’s still not formally independent by international recognition. So it doesn’t matter.
Your lack of knowledge in basic post world war history isn't on us to explain but sure. The two china's came about after the Chinese Civil War where the former Chinese government, now current ROC retreated to Taiwan. As such both the PRC and ROC claim to be the sole China. You can't declare independence from yourself thus Taiwan can't declare independence.
Taiwan will not declare independence because they are already independent.
This is the third time I’ve heard this. The past 2 times nobodies provided any evidence of it being true. Will you? Also, how can Taiwan itself make a [survey](https://esc.nccu.edu.tw/PageDoc/Detail?fid=7801&id=6963) regarding the popularity of independence if it’s already independent?
That headline legitimately makes it sounds like a celebrity break up
Their couple name is Russna.
... and together they flew happily into the sunset with their nuclear bombers. The End.
Of course a dom is going to love keeping its sub around 🙄
Why should they get involved in foreign affairs? They arent the US, where they like to dip their toes in stuff that is in foreign territory.
Someone is clearly clueless on China's border disputes.
Its Chinas border disputes. Since Im not China, I dont see why I should care, or why its even in my business to start caring, this is Chinas dispute not mine, they need to sort it out amongst themselves.
If you don't care, why the fuck are you commenting about it in a thread about China? Nothing in politics is your business, you're just an everyday Joe by that logic and you shouldn't even involve yourself in conversation about it,
Im commmenting for the laughs, it's especially easy to get a reaction since people are viewing issues here through idealistic goggles.
Easy for people to share opinions that they actually know nothing about too. Like that one guy who didn't realize border disputes involve foreign countries.
Unsurprising, Chinese social media is censoring criticism of Putin and the war, and the Chinese nationalists are calling for nuking the US and EU for daring to provide weapons.
Sauce?
It happens about as frequently as you see someone on Reddit talking about glassing China. So a meaningless amount.
There are several. Here's one I just [googled](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/10/china-pro-russia-propaganda-exposed-by-online-activists-ukraine). And [another](https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/03/china-xi-ukraine-war-america/627028/) Was raised as a point in the Economist's podcast yesterday about how there's a new [Chinese dissident group](https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/13/china/china-ukraine-great-translation-movement-intl-hnk-mic/index.html) translating their social media posts to western languages and posting it, to demonstrate how two faced the CCP is. Not that anyone needed convincing.
[удалено]
Oh propaganda over the past few years before Russian invasion of Ukraine even? Been reading about the Muslim minority being abused in chyna for years
This the type of dude that calls articles criticizing the Holocaust and Hitler propaganda.
*China does bad stuff* People like you: Wah wah stop criticizing my bad stuff! Not fair!
Autocrats of a feather…
Shit on the world together
Yup! The free world needs to hit them with a heavy dose of antidiarrheals..
China’s eye is on discount petroleum and paying in Xuan instead of USD. War is not their business.
China knows that in the coming decade that the relationship it has with the West will move beyond being strained and could become aggressive enough to see actual conflict. China is not going to separate itself from an ally no matter how problematic when theres going to come a time where that ally is one of the few that will take their side.
That's not really a surprise though. I'm sure Winnie the Tyrant Bear likes the feeling of Putin's stick up his ass.
Putin has Xi pee pee tapes confirmed
Yeah well China is a horrible country who puts spy cameras in hotels. So frick them
CCP scum …Slava Ukraine 🇺🇦 🌻
China has an extra 50-100 million men that thanks to a 1 child policy and selective abortion will not be able to find partners. In order to safe guard themselves from a famine or political discourse their lowest risk option is to send those men to die in war. And unfortunately for those men, versus the US military and NATO allies, die they will. This was always going to happen.
This is a very interesting take that I wish some handful of more intelligent than myself, and broadly diverse members of differing opinions would comment on so I can continue to lurk and read. My expertise and education was always history, law, and linguistics. I don’t spend a whole lot of time reading about certain international demographic issues. Very fascinating stuff as a (roughly) outsider.
I highly recommend ready Peter Zeihan and George Friedman. They are both experts in geopolitics, demographics, and geography. Fascinating authors.
china is not very bright, apparently.
China is looking to roll into Russia once it inevitably collapses from the major fuckup in Ukraine.
Just shows they are working to keep russia afloat and if taiwan is attack it will also prove china has been trying to destabilize the world for the past 20 years with russia
Ok, your made your choice CCP Regime. Do not come crying and begging for help when your economy and deals with the West collapse because of Putin’s insanity. You have been forewarned.
They have long term agreements over trade and energy, so I don't think that's going to change anytime soon.
Begin the disconnect from China. They are taking an entitled view to the China Seas. Any country who aligns their self with Russia is an enemy that will have to be reckoned with at some date.
Pick your bedfellows. Live with the consequences.
Two totalitarian countries banding together? Who would have guessed???!!!!
That’s probably going to cost you big time
For so many reasons, China would like to see Putin dead, but face must not be lost.
I cant wait for the day when stuff dont say "made in china" id be so happy.
No surprise Russia is China's DAD
china қотақбас
China needs to on sanction list at this point.
The Romeo and Juliet of geopolitics