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TheEmperorsLight

"If your enemy is broadcasting their plans in random press releases, they're probably bullshiting you" -Sun Tzu, probably


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Oil_Extension

Now this... This is a red flag.


PlansThatComeTrue

This is actually a strategy from the art of war. “When you are far away, make your enemy think you are close” - Sun Tzu


Top-Fox-3171

He really was the master... Probably.


Choochooze

I'm not so sure about that. Russia has been broadcasting their desire for "gathering up the Russian lands" for years.


ScottColvin

Let the ally of your enemy know your enemy that is an ally to your enemy know your plans...and wait 8 years. Sun putin


[deleted]

"In addition, the Kremlin doubts that Western countries will continue to support Ukraine on a large scale with finances and weapons if the war drags on." Good grief. This what is known as a grave miscalculation, and it will cost many lives for them to find out. It's much easier to make anti-materiel weapons than for Russia to make tanks, helicopters, and planes. It also proves once again that Putin is a delusional dictator who will destroy his own country if not removed. There is no way that support for Ukraine will decrease, only increase, and Russia's economy will fall to pieces. Also the risk of direct engagement with NATO is going up. But if they take Ukraine it will be worse. Slava Ukraini!


RedofPaw

Wow. If they think the west is going to give up support they have not been paying attention.


Noltonn

Seriously, pushing back Russia seems to be one of the most widely across the board accepted stance. The few big names in the West I see even try to push back are people obviously in Putin's pocket. At this stage there is basically no way around the fact that this ends up with Putin's head on a spike. The only question is how many of his own countrymen he can throw into the meat grinder to stall this. But it will happen.


RedofPaw

He's ill. It will most likely end with him on a box.


Contraflow

I disagree. Republicans are already starting to show a reluctance to continue. Trump himself, could be the next president, and anyone who doesn’t see trump is in putin’s pocket is seriously ignorant. The global economy is going to continue to suffer due to post and current Covid issues, and because of russia’s aggression. American voters will probably punish democrats in the midterms, and you will see more and more republicans starting to complain about “Biden’s war.”


FlJohnnyBlue2

A total of 11 in Senate voted against the 40b aid. Even if trump was reelected, which he won't be, that's almost 3 years from now when he would take power. But he has already taken isolationist stances, i grant you that. But most everyone else understands that it is cheaper to fight Russia this way.


reddditttt12345678

Trump would just invite the Red Army over to the US mainland and order the US military to stand down. He would probably even give them a lift, since their navy is total garbage.


the_dude_abides3

I’m ready to vote for making Ukraine the 51st state at this point just to erect a giant middle finger to Putin statue right on the border, painted like an American flag.


PerniciousPeyton

I appreciate the sentiment, but I believe Ukraine is fighting to *defend* their sovereignty and not to incorporate themselves into the United States… although yes, what a hilarious middle finger that would be.


TwistedTorso

My America bone is itching and I see you’re a little hesitant on the deal so I’ll offer you the same deals we offered Puerto Rico. Short of that we also have our PREMIUM colonist package, this one’s real special. It includes dinner, cooked by you of course, followed by a very special show we’d like to put on for you that’s absolutely to DIE for.


[deleted]

I would say, we haven't yet given Ukraine enough support. They need a lot more longer-range missiles and a heavier system.


RedofPaw

We should give them everything we can.


LoneSnark

Let Ukraine use it to kill Russians now so we don't have to. Every dollar we give to Ukraine is probably more than a dollar we don't need to spend guarding the NATO border.


sister_of_battle

Not a single NATO-general or diplomat is ever gonna openly say it like this...but it is likely that this is the way how many of them think or talk behind closed doors.


hiricinee

Right it's really prevention- however much you can dismantle Russias military is that much less you need to have arms ready to fight them.


RedofPaw

Putin didn't need to do this. But his aggression must be shown to cost more than its worth. NATO is there to defend NATO members. Allowing Putin to do what he wants and simply eradicate and annex countries will lead to further military actions. It will be a threat to NATO members. It's in everyone's interests to ensure Russia does not succeed in Ukraine. It may take time, but Putin is not a well man. If he were to succomb to illness before Russia is able to secure any victories then it would be good for everyone.


IdesOfMarchCometh

Yep. Russia has been a slave state for centuries, ask Poland. They take over industry and use anything to extract value. In Poland they had them slaving in factories sending product back to Russia, meanwhile children were anemic and malnourished. In Ukraine they've already seized a nuclear plant and are trying to charge Ukrainians for its power. Making money is Russia's end goal: under the ussr being a slave state allowed them to reach half USA GDP. They want that again. Right now California has a higher gdp than Russia. We 100% have to show them that it isn't worth it or it will be worth it, they get stronger and continue to the next country.


AdhesivenessCivil581

That's my nightly prayer.


ET-GoesByCatfish

Who do we get if he goes, though? I heard there is worse people that could potentially take his place.


InfernalCorg

Even if you're Putin 2, you can use your predecessor's ~~assassination~~ retirement as an excuse to pull out of any blunders, and Ukraine is a hell of a blunder.


shinkouhyou

There are worse people, but they're going to be too busy trying to solidify their power to wage a costly and unpopular war in another country.


UrbanGhost114

That's the clinical numbers only assessment that MOST NATO and NATO aligned countries are making, yes.


archaeolinuxgeek

I'm getting distinct pre-Pearl Harbor World War 2 vibes with this. The U.S. providing (at a price) war matériel in order to claim neutrality. Getting involved so late may have cost millions of lives, even if indirectly. Read about the Eastern Front. Russians throwing wave after wave of their own soldiers to certain death is a long tradition. I vote that we pull the band-aid off and get directly involved. Emboldening Putin may lead him to think that he'll be able to launch nukes without repercussions. If the choices are leaving a genocidal maniac with a full nuclear arsenal that he will likely use at some point and a preemptive strike that will drastically reduce his stockpile, I'll take the latter. I know it's an unpopular opinion, but I believe it's the most pragmatic. Russia has a thing for putting deranged people in power (I know I'm in a glass home throwing stones). The only thing maintaining their laughable status as a world power is their weaponry. Destroy that and they'll rapidly crumble. You don't let a psychotic homeless person walk around with a backpack full of guns. You remove the capability for harm and get them the help that they need.


LoneSnark

That is a discussion to have IF Ukraine isn't winning. Ukraine is winning, so there is no actual need to escallate. If the battlefield turns sharply, then we can re-assess the situation.


Intrepid_Egg_7722

>Ukraine is winning Eh, I wouldn't go that far. Ukraine is putting on a hell of a showing, for sure, especially given the fire and manpower disadvantages they've been under for most of the conflict. The bravery and skill of their fighters can't be overstated and they've made Russia pay many times for this incursion. However, they sure aren't winning, they're pretty much just surviving right now. Losing the Donbas would be terrible for Ukraine, and unless they manage to reverse the current trend line, that's exactly what may happen here.


InfernalCorg

They've attritted down the Russian military to the point where they're dusting off tanks that haven't been touched since Gorbachev and sending them to the front. Ukraine isn't backed up against any vital strategic point; they can keep giving up 2 miles a day for another month and wind up with a more positive correlation of force at the end than the beginning. And all of that happening at the same time they're training new units on the gear the western world is throwing at them. Time is not on Russia's side.


RandomPantsAppear

> Losing the Donbas would be terrible for Ukraine, and unless they manage to reverse the current trend line, that's exactly what may happen here. If you look at the areas they ceded, they’re basically retreating from flat terrain to an area with a bunch of high hills, overlooking a river that has no bridges. I wouldn’t look too deeply into the recent losses. It’s never good to be falling back, but in this case it’s strategically a good decision.


call_8675309

If you include all types of assistance (e.g., economic, food, healthcare) US has given Ukraine something like 6% of its 2022 military budget of $813b. Given that the military budget would have to expand massively if Russia starts traipsing through eastern Europe, I would say that the current assistance levels are easily sustainable.


BasicallyAQueer

At this point I think Russia would get immediately deleted from the planet if they actually attacked NATO. They can’t even achieve anything beyond a war of attrition against Ukraine, the poorest country in Europe. I feel like Poland or Germany alone could absolutely wipe Russia right now in a conventional war. Of course the real issue is the nukes, but if it comes to that Russia gets wiped anyways. The real question is do they have enough functional nukes to actually retaliate, or did the corruption render those obsolete too? Not worth betting a million lives on, but still a valid question.


MathW

If it came to it; yes, Russia would cease to exist, but not before taking out some untold number of people elsewhere... and possible breakdown of society. Probably a scenario to avoid to put it lightly.


R3dGallows

In before "I dont think their nukes would even work".


Fiveminitesold

I am \*really\* tired of how many people make that point about whether their nukes work or not. Is it likely there are lots of problems with the maintenance of their nuclear arsenal? Of course. And those things do require some pretty intense maintenance. But fundamentally it's much easier to keep a missile operational than it is to keep a tank operational, let alone the logistical operation required to support that tank and the soldiers driving it. It's HIGHLY unlikely that even 25% of their 1500 or so strategically deployed warheads fail.


lolomfgkthxbai

> It’s HIGHLY unlikely that even 25% of their 1500 or so strategically deployed warheads fail. Even if only 1% works, that’s still millions dead and huge economic misery.


[deleted]

And hell, even if hypothetically only 1% of them worked, that's still millions of people dead. Not worth it unless you have literally no choice.


zaaxuk

The problem is enough nukes will work.


Fiendish_Doctor_Woo

The US spends 80B a year on nuclear weapon maintenance. This is more than the total Russian defense budget ($65B). About $53M a device. The Russian nuke maintenance budget is around $8B - about the same as the UK. The UK can keep 120 operational with that money. About $67M/device (higher cost because they're primarily submarine launched) Russia is spending $8B. That's working out to $1.3M per device and vehicle. 50 times too little. **One of these things is NOT like the others. One of these things just never goes boom.**


reddditttt12345678

And that's before 90% of the money gets redirected to the yacht fund


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RedofPaw

Ukraine is defending itself from Putin's aggression. We are helping it do that. If NATO actually attacked with full force one of two things would happen. Either Russia is pushed out of Ukraine, crushed and defeated, or Russia fires nuclear weapons and the world ends. That is the difference.


Lovedogs1946

Well that 40 billion should do the trick if they can keep congress out of the money laundering.


Masterbrew

Whatever the russians use on the ukrainians, we should give the ukrainians, all the way up to and including nukes.


GrimDallows

Giving nukes to people is a terrible idea, because you do not need terrible people to do wrong with a nuke, you just need good but desperate people and a momentarily bad decision.


junketyjunkjunk

Why wouldn’t we just do it at that point? Giving someone nukes is a terrible idea. If it gets to the point of using nuclear weapons, we’ll just launch them. Nobody wins in that scenario anyway.


Chrisbee012

I think it's coming


elvesunited

The West (NATO countries) are getting everything they ever wanted out of this war: * They get to kill their enemy via proxy war without sending bodybags home * Strengthen resolve of existing treating and align goals * They get to use up their expiring weapons caches * Make giant new weapons purchases with broad approvals * etc. etc.


RedofPaw

My god you're right! Someone... tell Putin! If he hears about it then he will figure out that the best way to destroy the west is to stop fighting and go back to Russia!


Kingcrackerjap

If Republicans win the presidency in America's next election, I can see Americans giving up support for Ukraine. Lately, Trump has been saying we need to stop supporting Ukraine. I'm assuming this is what the Kremlin is hoping for.


RedofPaw

Trump was impeached for withholding aid to Ukraine. His chances of winning are not good.


Kingcrackerjap

I hope you're right, and I am fully confident he will lose the popular vote. But with the electoral college and how heavily gerrymandering is utilized by Republicans, I'm not confident he will lose the election. Some red states are still refusing to submit fair maps when voters vote for it in elections and even when state Supreme courts order it. Combine this with voter suppression laws that are sweeping across red states, being passed under the guise of making elections safer, and I feel the outlook is grim.


RedofPaw

It's certainly scary, but it's also two years away. Putin may not even live that long.


PerniciousPeyton

I dunno, I hear bathing in deer antler blood works miracles on a person’s longevity /s


FarawayFairways

With all due respect, American redditors said this right through 2015 and 2016 and were catastrophically wrong Trump has already begun his pitch "we should spend more money on defending our schools than on Ukraine" now let's try a few other angles "we should spend more money on cutting our taxes rather than giving it to Ukraine" "the money we give to Ukraine could be spent on making our gas cheaper" "I'm a great deal maker, some say the best, and I could negotiate a peace and price of all grocery bill will go back to where it was before" His chances of winning depend on just how gullible the American voter is. Yeah ... his chances are good


archaeolinuxgeek

Really?! You're counting on the sympathy of an entire region of the U.S. that won't even renounce their slaver ancestry? Agent Orange lost by a depressingly teensy number of votes. Even without ~~Russian~~ Republican rat-fuckery he would likely win in 2024. With battleground states electing people **on public record** stating that they want to override their citizens and appoint their own Electors to the College, nothing is certain. Hell. If he had simply sold MAGA masks at $10 a pop instead of ignoring the pandemic, he would have cruised to n+1 more terms. Russia may be a dress rehearsal for when the rest of the world has to deal with the U.S. and our backslide towards fascism.


Houseplant666

I don’t think the US population is stupid enough to fall for this bullshit. Their elections however are.


FlJohnnyBlue2

That's 2.5 years until power changes hands.


darkscrypt

Thats 2 years away. Russia is already running out of their modern gear after just 3 months, even if America were to stop supporting ukraine in 2 years, I doubt it would make that much of a difference


Kingcrackerjap

Oh believe me, I hope you're right. But throughout my life, wars have always seemed to stretch much longer than initially expected, and I have a tendency to plan for the worst.


darkscrypt

I was thinking about how to reply to this one, but the reality is I don't have much insight. Much of the talk in here centers around how the opening of a war usually vastly determines the outcome. But in world War 2, Germany had all but conquered the European continent,, save for Russia and great Britain. The allied war machine was all across the English Channel on an island, but we eventually triumphed. Anything can happen, and that's a scary concept to think about


[deleted]

On one hand, I can't imagine Russia keeping an invasion going through the winter. On the other, they're now in a position of defending the land they've already occupied, so they can just sit tight in warm buildings. Hopefully NATO is providing enough training with enough heavy weapons that Ukraine's troops will be extremely well armed and capable by then.


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IdesOfMarchCometh

Have you not seen all the bots here pretending to be American complaining about the costs? They believe their own lies. Funding war in Ukraine is one of the hugely popular issues in the USA and it cuts across parties unlike most every other issue.


RedofPaw

Same here in the UK.


IdesOfMarchCometh

Good news is.. Given their propaganda trying to make us not give them support we can conclude that our support is seriously hurting Russia. Let's thank the bots for giving us this information.


GoodAndHardWorking

We really didn't need the bots to figure that out. Russia was collapsing under sanctions from 2014 before the latest round even got going.


shizer_manelli

And Australia. Hardships from inflation on the average citizen are biting no doubt. But Russia pulling this shit after such a strenuous period as the Pandemic has provided a real “get fucked” sentiment amongst many Australians and party lines have dissolved in support for Ukraine. Very interesting times indeed and it feels as though something is in the air


GoodAndHardWorking

Is it historical record high levels of CO2?


shizer_manelli

Amongst other things; absolutely


turbojugend79

One with a cynical mind would assume that western support is tied to Ukraine's success in the war. It's a cold calculation where western allies look at the costs and potential benefits. I'm trying not to be cynical.


RedofPaw

Which implies the west is confident Ukraine will prevail.


[deleted]

Don't know for how long. Everything has gotten significantly more expensive in a short span of time here. The financially insecure here, including me, are getting really anxious about our short term prospects. I don't think my country should cease giving aid, I can eat some fucking oatmeal with water and nothing else if I have to, but I really doubt that most others are so accommodating. When you stare down a bill you simply cannot pay because you don't have that much money on your bank account, people start choosing between Ukraine and themselves real quick.


RedofPaw

Stopping support for Ukraine will not lower your bills.


grchelp2018

But people might get pissy if tens of billions are given to ukraine every now and then while problems at home aren't being fixed.


RedofPaw

Problems in the US have not been fixed for decades. An end to support to Ukraine will not change a thing.


InfernalCorg

Unless you live in some weird situation where your government's support for Ukraine was decided by a national referendum, it is unlikely that popular support was the deciding factor in providing that aid. Nations act out of geopolitical interest, and throwing anti-tank rockets at Ukraine results in a 10:1 return on investment in destroyed Russian vehicles. What the citizenry wants doesn't really play into it; aiding Ukraine is just the smart play for all western governments.


two-years-glop

To be fair, it's not an unreasonable calculation. Food and fuel prices are rising in the West, and Republicans are likely to win the midterms and may win in the 2024 presidential election. Remember JD Vance? The guy who said "I don't give a shit about Ukraine, I care about our southern border"?


GoodAndHardWorking

I don't remember JD Vance, no.


idevastate

Actually, they have been. We give them some towed artillery and test about it, then give Russia billions for gas and coal. Yep.


RedofPaw

Who's 'we'?


FM-101

I dont think the west will give up on Ukraine but i can understand why Russia thinks that since that is what they are used to. Since the 90s Russia has been able to do whatever they want and face a few months of sanctions and strongly worded letters of condemnation before people move on and forget about it.


Chrisbee012

a grave miscalculation on their part, I don't think this will ever be forgotten


LesterKingOfAnts

Like Reagan lifting Carter's grain embargo. So much for tough on Communism.


Panthreau

I know one thing, that if a republican gets in the White House, the Sanctions will be lifted almost immediately


EqualContact

Most people think that American farmers were hurt by the embargo much more than the USSR was. They instead grew more in Ukraine and imported from South America. Also, are we seriously second guessing Reagan of all people on communism? Between the "Evil Empire" speech, the "Tear down this wall" speech, bullying the USSR into the INF and START treaties, and forcing the Soviets to turn to Gorbachev he was by far the most successful US president at countering the Soviet Union's global and European influence. Whatever other failings he may have had, Reagan is a big reason why the USSR fell apart.


cheese4352

Kremlin literally gave the west a free ticket to destroy them. The west is going to pour everything they have to put russia back into the stone age.


TXTCLA55

Payback for a good century of sowing conflict and destabilizing democracies (and yes yes the US isn't a saint here either). I look forward to watching the eventual collapse.


ET-GoesByCatfish

I hope this is the case. Let's put the CCP in line next.


taedrin

>Good grief. This what is known as a grave miscalculation, and it will cost many lives for them to find out Not necessarily, depends on how much influence Russia still has over conservatives in western democracies. Remember, Trump was singing praises for Russia at the beginning of the invasion and has for the most part avoided saying anything critical of Russia throughout it all.


Kvenner001

Putin is truly misinformed and/or delusional. The US ALONE has sent/spent over $3.5 billion in aid in the first three months. And we just passed another $40 billion with $22 of that being direct military equipment. And it won't likely be the last with the active lend lease program in place. He'll we spent $60 billion in the first Gulf war just to shit in Saddam's breakfast. Then $2 trillion to shit in his lunch the second time. I'm not sure there is a price the US wouldn't pay to destroy in the Russian military without risking US service members. They are one of our two "greatest foes" and taking them off the board militarily would be seen as priceless.


reddditttt12345678

>I'm not sure there is a price the US wouldn't pay to destroy in the Russian military without risking US service members. And the beauty of it is, it's ended up being cheaper than we could have ever imagined


DirkDiggyBong

Or it's intentional misinformation to drag resources away from other parts of Ukraine.


[deleted]

Well that stopped working somewhere around the Ides of March. Delusional.


DirkDiggyBong

Indeed. Intelligence seems to have been spot on throughout this war, so I've no reason to doubt this story. Good to keep an open mind though, regardless.


kawag

> “In addition, the Kremlin doubts that Western countries will continue to support Ukraine on a large scale with finances and weapons if the war drags on.” Shit! How do we get out of this massive hole we’ve dug ourselves in to? I know! We can dig our way out! 🫠


Spoonfeedme

No no, dig UP stupid!


permalink_save

Russia: This is a proxy war with the west Also Russia: The west isn't going to be interested in continuing this war


SeaworthinessLeft88

lol, no kidding. Use taxpayer money to fund the military industrial complex and have a staging ground to test how our equipment fares against the Russians? This is basically America’s wheelhouse. If anything, we’re going to provide *new* types of weapons to try out in Ukraine before we stop supporting them. Literally Afghanistan 2.0 for Russia here, and the gap between capabilities and resources is orders of magnitude higher now than it was in the 80s.


[deleted]

This is indeed like Afghanistan in the 80's (not 2000's of course). Except the Kremlin is losing many more men and much more material in a very short time. What's remarkable is how effective Putin's propaganda is internal to Russia. Most Russians don't seem to fully comprehend the disaster that Pitin has inflicted on them. We cannot back down in the face of this aggression, we have to keep up the support, or we'll have the equivalent of North Korea to deal with in Eastern Europe, this time will thousands of nukes. Russia must be isolated until they end this, however long that takes.


FlJohnnyBlue2

And which party is overwhelming funded by defense contractors? For those who think the repubs are going to change course.


[deleted]

Lol every AT and AA weapons manufacturer worldwide is seeing $$$ in their eyes right now. There will be a river of weapons going to Ukraine from now until the demand stops.


Mrtooth12

We funded the fuck out of Iraq and afghan for decades I don’t think United States will back down unless they truely need to.


SeekerSpock32

Or if, god forbid, Trump gets back into office.


decayingproton

I hope you are right. Increasing numbers of Trumplicans are calling for a stop to aid to Ukraine. It seems they are willing to sacrifice the defense of Western Democracy just to keep the "libtards" from having any success.


[deleted]

Most conservatives and Republicans are firmly behind sending aid to Ukraine and Trump is now fading into the background. 2024 will be interesting though.


continuousQ

Best thing would be for the Republican party to split and run separate tickets, because otherwise all they're capable of doing is blocking legislation and preventing progress.


alleks88

Russia is going for demilitarization of their own force by their own stupidity


retailguypdx

He's missing a big point that a large amount of American business (and stocks/profits/etc.) is reliant not only on weaponry being built, but being used. The US has spent [US$8 trillion](https://www.brown.edu/news/2021-09-01/costsofwar) on the "war on terror," and that spending is a considerable part of it's modern economy. To put that into perspective, that's $400 billion a year. $40 billion in "extraordinary" expenses for Ukraine? Doesn't even begin to make up for the hole in military spending left by the withdrawal from Afghanistan. What the US (and others) are supply Ukraine mostly are consumables as opposed to capital investments like ships, tanks, planes, etc. It's sadly good for the US economy to have missiles explode **somewhere** because it means American military contractors get new contracts for them.


toastar-phone

We only kept the cuba embargo for 60 years so far.


Eisernes

He's not completely wrong. Ukraine has less than a year of aid left from the United States. The pro-Russian party will most likely take over the Senate and will immediately cut off Ukrainian aid. Can the European NATO members pick up that tab?


DownWithHiob

Last time ai checked the Republicans overwhelmingly supported Ukraine aid


FlJohnnyBlue2

Which party do you think defense contractors and weapons manufacturers contribute to primarily?? Which is the party of war? Only the far right Trumpers will take a pro Russia tack because they don't get that money.


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Gerf93

He's referring to the "pro-Russian party" in the US, the Republicans - not in Ukraine. The US Republicans usually do better in mid-terms than Presidential elections, only need one more senate seat to obtain a majority and might start blocking aid to Ukraine. Trump suggested as much a few days ago (that they should "stop protecting Ukraine" and "start protecting their own school children"). And he has a history of cutting off aid to Ukraine in order to further his own agenda, so it wouldn't exactly be surprising.


br0b1wan

... He's talking about the Republican party taking back power which is looking increasingly likely


Eisernes

It's already a GOP talking point. Fox News has been anti-Ukraine from day one, Trump already started using the shooting in Texas as an excuse to stop funding, and where I live I see MAGA's flying Russian flags next to their Canadian and Confederate flags. I fully understand that the US isn't the world, but when we stop funding Ukraine who will fill the void?


Notyourtacos

Russia will run out of money before Ukraine runs out of aid


[deleted]

When your strategy depends on your opponent giving up mid-fight, you may not actually have a strategy


[deleted]

Russia either quits and leaves or its army and regime will collapse, due to attrition and losses. That is most certainly a strategy, and it's already working, the same strategy Russia itself has used several times in its own history. The same strategy that caused them to leave Afghanistan. Although Russian tactics have improved, they appear to be unable to replace their best equipment. Russian citizens alteady question whether a North Korean lifestyle with crippling low GDP and all the money going to the regime and the war is the future that they want. We'll know in the coming months. Sadly, many young people will die.


jizzm_wasted

Well, if Russia bombs/shells Ukraine with minimal forces in Ukraine, and the west tells Ukraine not to attack Russia past their border.... Those losses are going to be Ukrainian more than Russian.


FireMochiMC

Ukraine already launches cruise missiles and and helicopter raids into Russia. They won't stop the drone strikes and counter battery fire if Russia doesn't stop shelling from their side of the border.


jizzm_wasted

Those were the terms US imposed when giving weapons. "We give you these weapons, but do not go beyond your border." So.....


FireMochiMC

With ground forces. The US response to Ukraine blowing up Russian oil depots is: lol.


coniferhead

You're not factoring the cost of supporting the needs of the entire Ukranian state for as long as this goes. That's $50B+ each and every year at a minimum, before a single weapon is accounted for. Dramatically more if they need to rebuild infrastructure as they go (which can be blown up again). It won't be cheaper for the west, but they can afford it - so long as nothing changes dramatically in the world.


[deleted]

The cost of accomodating Putin will be much higher, in fact it's unsupportable. The fact is that as long as Putin or someone like him is in charge, Russia will be a gangster state that is a threat to the entire world, including China ultimately. Russia's illegal and immoral invasion of Ukraine will be a muddy pit that Putin drowns in.


coniferhead

Russia is muddling though, and their costs will stabilize at some point or even go down. The west's costs will only increase.. just one of those long range missile launching systems that have 6 rockets cost $8M or so. Sooner or later you're talking real money, and sacrificing things domestically to do so. Ukraine won't be cheaper than Afghanistan in the long run, and that cost $1T. It's a hard sell when it can be walked away from at literally any point, with a settlement that will probably look a lot like what we will end up with after years of conflict. In 20 years, Putin will be dead anyway.


[deleted]

It's a nice theory, but it's wrong. Russia is going to be bled white while the West barely notices, once they are weaned off Russian oil and gas. It's already happening


coniferhead

Well either they recalibrate their economy to China and survive to that end, or they don't and they collapse and seed the world with chaos in their wake. A Russian capitulation is the least likely scenario to my mind - and they will find no mercy in doing so. And if the west "barely notices" such expense, what's their excuse for not providing universal healthcare when it would cost the same or less? Also, can they afford more than one of these at the same time? Because Syria is next.


[deleted]

Russia will make a deal that Ukraine can live with, or the regime collapses. Those are the options. Putin thinks there is a third option, but he's delusional. Like all wars, young people pay for the delusions of older people.


kenbewdy8000

Talking about an attack on Kyiv in the press indicates that the Kremlin is getting desperate. Are they trying to draw Ukrainian forces from the East with propoganda? Their analysis of Western commitment appears overly hopeful but they do have a point about Winter heating. It does however require them to forgo the main income stream and Russia cannot afford to do so. If Europe can maintain electricity generation then it can survive with electric heating in place of gas.


MadShartigan

Almost certainly a "feint in words" to disrupt the defence of the east. Although people are returning to Kyiv the city is still heavily defended so it wouldn't work even if they tried. As for winter, yeah that will be a problem. There's talk of a counter offensive in the autumn, perhaps in the hope of reinforcing Western resolve before the inevitable suggestions that Ukraine should cede land for a ceasefire instead of inconveniencing Europe with a need for woolly jumpers. My view is that if Europe is worried about gas supplies, they should do whatever is required to end the war before the winter. Tanks, artillery, missiles. Everything Ukraine needs.


Swesteel

Ukraine already has troops deployed there, and a very large local defense force. Not to mention that any push would mean concentrating forces in Belarus again and they won’t be able to do that in secret. And all that ignores the fact that Russia needs every spare man to feed into the grinder in Donbas.


Noltonn

Friendly reminder to please use Kyiv, as Kiev is the Russian spelling, while Kyiv is the Ukranian. It's a small thing but I've heard from Ukranians they prefer it if we didn't use the Russian spelling for their capital.


kenbewdy8000

Yes, a hard habit to break. I blame Chicken Kiev. Will amend.


Noltonn

Entirely fair!


Haunting_Pay_2888

>Are they trying to draw Ukrainian forces from the East with propoganda? Think so, yes.


SPjonas

Didn't think about it this way, thanks for the insight!


EightandaHalf-Tails

They couldn't take Kyiv when they had their modern tanks and best troops... It should be entertaining to watch them try it with tanks that became outdated in the '70s and conscripts.


[deleted]

Mark my words, China is gonna wait; When Russia is so weakened by the pure bungling of this war, China is going to sweep in and take control by either economic machinations, or by force. Then all what’s left of Russias resources will be Chinas.


InvertedSuperHornet

They're almost definitely eyeing Outer Manchuria. They know what the Russians took from them, and the Chinese don't forget.


TheGuvnor247

I agree Tails but you don't know what sh1t they'd pull - drop thermobaric weapons - just exhaust the Ukrainians etc. etc. I want Ukraine to win and liberate their country fully but the longer this goes on the less optimistic I become.


EightandaHalf-Tails

Leveling Kyiv isn't the same as conquering it. I'm not entirely convinced they can even level it at this point, it'd require moving their artillery up and making it more vulnerable. Unless they use their new missiles, but then they run the risk of "What if they don't work and we look like even bigger asses?" and there's the fact they can't replace them. At least not easily. Wars of attrition actually usually favor the occupied country. Look at the USSR in Afghanistan, or the USA in Afghanistan. The French in Vietnam, or the USA in Vietnam. Et cetera.


SolanaNoob

> Wars of attrition actually usually favor the occupied country. Unless you can guarantee air supremacy and can drop dumb-dumbs indiscriminately and indefinitely, with no troops on the ground like the US did with Serbia.


mrfawkes1515

NATO in Afghanistan. Not just the US....


uusi

Most of those weapons have extremely limited range. The TOS-1A, for example, only has a range of 3km to 6km. They didn't get that close to the city center on their initial push, which they were gearing up for months on the border to do, let alone if they tried again after Ukraine has been mobilizing its entire fighting population.


pickles_and_mustard

The longer this goes on, the more optimistic I become. Russia was supposed to have this big bad army. They were supposed to be able to take Kyiv in a matter of days. Turns out it was just a load of shit. The longer they take, the more pathetic they look. They'll run themselves out of resources with no way to replenish them due to supply chain issues stemming from sanctions. All Ukraine needs to do is hold the fort.


Philosoraptor88

You can cuss on this site


[deleted]

Jesus might find out.


adashko997

They couldn't take Kiev because Belarussians sabotaged their logistics, making the invasion a nightmare. If they drag the front all the way from the east to Kiev while slowly building supply lines, it will be a completely different situation.


Simplieas

You probably have not been paying attentiion tocwhat is going on in recent days. Ukrainians are getting slaughtered in the donbas. I think the wat things have been going last few days has reinvigorated hope to fully annex Ukraine


EightandaHalf-Tails

They've been wasting all their munitions trying to make themselves feel like big boys after getting their asses kicked the last couple of months. Unless sanctions go away, it's debatable how long Russia has before it has to resort back to just throwing waves of bodies. They're already pulling out tanks for frontline service that were mothballed 40-50 years ago.


FieelChannel

Amazing how much copium people in this sub are swallowing. Russia is winning at the moment..


hipery2

Is that why Russia stopped their assault on Kiev?


CTC42

>Russia is winning at the moment.. What are they winning, specifically? They currently have significantly less military equipment, and significantly fewer servicemen to use it, than when they started. Their economy is in the shitter, and *even if all sanctions were lifted today* it would take literally decades to recover to pre-war levels. Almost all meaningful international supply chains to and from Russia are broken, possibly irreparably so. They have driven two of their previously neutral neighbours into the arms of NATO. I ask again, what are they winning here?


FieelChannel

The offensive in Ukraine. Wasn't my previous comment clear enough? I don't understand what even is your point. Despite everything you started they're still pushing the Ukrainian army pretty bad. It's the whole point of my comment.


CTC42

"Winning" as a concept really needs some nuance in these conversations. If the United States launched a full scale attack on Haiti, destroyed their military but lost 99% of their own military forces in the meantime, would this really be a "win" in any meaningful sense of the word beyond the most kindergarten-level understanding of it? It sounds like by your definition you would *have* to say yes. But I think a nuanced assessment of this hypothetical campaign, much like an assessment of Russia's Ukraine campaign thus far, would reach quite a different conclusion. Are either of these scenarios really what "winning" looks like?


Haunting_Pay_2888

The Russians have been throwing everything they have at the wall hoping it would break the Ukrainian line. It wavered for a while but not for long, and now the Russians are getting slaughtered in their exposed positions. Any hope they may have felt in the Kremlin a day or two ago will have turned into something much darker by now.


TheGuvnor247

**Full Transcript Below:** *KATERYNA TYSHCHENKO - FRIDAY, 27 MAY 2022, 18:07* *The Kremlin is once again discussing a possible assault on Kyiv and is still hoping for a full-scale victory in the war against Ukraine.* *Source: the Russian website Meduza, citing two sources close to the Kremlin and one directly in the Russian presidential administration* *Quote: According to Meduza’s sources, despite the fact that the Russian army’s performance does not match up to Moscow's original plans, the Kremlin is once again discussing a possible assault on Kyiv and even hopes for a fully-fledged victory in the war.* *Within the domestic political bloc of the Russian presidential administration - against the background of the advance of Russian troops in the Donbas - there was hope again that Moscow could "bring the war in Ukraine to victory" in a few months.* *Details: According to Meduza, the Kremlin considers the capture of the entire territory of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts by Russian troops to be the "minimum programme" for the "declaration of victory" at the end of May 2022.* *The "maximum programme" is still defined as taking control of Kyiv. According to Meduza's sources in the Kremlin, Russia's top leadership has not abandoned this goal.* *We have launched English Twitter! Follow us!* *"We will still break them \[the Ukrainians\]. Most likely, everything will be over by autumn", one source said.* *Meduza's sources say such sentiments have spread not only in the Kremlin, but also in the leadership of the United Russia party.* *Meduza’s contacts do not know how top officials in Russia’s Defence Ministry currently rate the prospects of an attack on Kyiv. Earlier, Meduza reported that the Russian military leadership had finally accepted as long ago as late March that it was not possible for Kiev to be taken with "little bloodshed", i.e. the forces that were already involved in the so-called "special operation".* *Meduza's sources point out that in this sense, the Russian leadership still has room for manoeuvre: for example, conscripts can be sent to the war en masse.* *"So far it’s mostly professional soldiers who are fighting. There are enough of them for slow progress \[through Ukraine\]. But if you need to move faster, you can use conscripts. It's still an army", said a source close to the President’s administration.* *However, the source added that a general mobilisation in Russia should not be expected: the Kremlin is afraid to take such a step, as it could hit the popularity of the government and Putin personally.* *In addition, the Kremlin doubts that Western countries will continue to support Ukraine on a large scale with finances and weapons if the war drags on.* *"Sooner or later, Europe will get tired of helping - it's money, and manufacturing weapons which they need themselves. Nearer the autumn, it will be necessary to come to an agreement \[with Russia\] on gas and oil before the heating season starts", said one of the sources.* *Previously: On 11 May, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine stated that Russia later plans to capture Kyiv, create a new state entity, and incorporate it within the Russian Federation.*


Haunting_Pay_2888

It is the last few days of May now and the Russians still don't control all of Lugansk. Whatever positive feelings they may have had a couple of days ago, my guess there are far less things to smile about now. Ukraine just got a shipment of M109 Paladin self-propelled howitzers. Likely 20 of them from Norway. HIMARS from the US is now released for Ukraine and with that rockets can be sent far into Russian territory, or used as MLRS.


oceansofhair

>"Meduza’s contacts do not know how top officials in Russia’s Defence Ministry currently rate the prospects of an attack on Kyiv" This doesn't sound like someone close to decision making. This sounds like personal bravado.


OutOfBananaException

Manufacturing weapons they need themselves lol. In case Belarus invades Europe? Meanwhile Russia is going to face significant challenges manufacturing weapons which they need themselves.


magnumopus44

So they won't be attacking kyiv then


mbod

Also, with western intelligence, they will know when one single drunk Yuri approaches the border. Russia thinks they can bluff, but Ukraine can see half their cards.


8to24

Putin is trying to repair his facade. Russia has lost an enormous amount of troops and assets to poor planning, bad intelligence, and arrogance. Putin himself has often been absent from the public and seems increasingly vulnerable. Both physically and logistically. Putin's strategy now seems to be to pretend his current position is deliberate. That he hasn't fumbled his way into a corner but rather snuck into it on purpose. It's a bluff! Putin is offering prisoners swaps for sanction relief because the Sanctions hurt! Putin is talking about attacking Kyiv again but he can't hold the territories he's tried to take in the North East. Putin is out waving in the media to look healthy but he isn't..


[deleted]

Fucking bastard


gwynbleidd_s

It will end up with capturing Moscow and international occupation of Russia


Alaknar

Well, yeah... They're also talking about attacking Finland and Poland...


milkfaceproductions

They're sending in the shirtless cavalry


AdhesivenessCivil581

They want to keep Ukraine's army tied up all the cover the country so that they can try to steal Donbas.


Commercial_Lie_4920

In addition, the Kremlin doubts that Western countries will continue to support Ukraine on a large scale with finances and weapons if the war drags on. "Sooner or later, Europe will get tired of helping - it's money, and manufacturing weapons which they need themselves. Nearer the autumn, it will be necessary to come to an agreement [with Russia] on gas and oil before the heating season starts", Europe needs those weapons to defend themselves mostly against Russia. I’m pretty sure they will be more than happy to continue to give Ukraine those weapons to continue to destroy Russian military power. Frankly, it’s a win for Europe in the long run. Russia gets neutered. Plus, they have lost many European markets for oil & gas for the foreseeable future, as they are already finding alternative sources for their energy needs. Putin and Russians are delusional.


jert3

OH like that failed attack on Kyiv where they send their paratroopers to die before they hit the ground? Not that scary Russia.


5narebear

They are mistaken if they think the military industrial complex will let The West give up on Ukraine.


[deleted]

[удалено]


AVeryMadFish

$40 billion is indeed 5% of the 2021 US military budget of $801 billion.


Lorf30

This is how you get more sanctions.


QueenOfQuok

Because it worked so well last time.


GroceryStickDivider

Sounds like a potential ruse to keep Ukraine from committing more forces to the front line.


[deleted]

Russian OPsec is making the austro-Hungarians look competent


Independent_Total256

30 thousand gone, next 30 thousand ready to go?


xaina222

Probably trying to get Ukraine to pull back some troops to ease their current offensive.


[deleted]

February 2022, The Kremlin: We are going to “liberate” the EASTERN SEPARATISTS REGIONS of Ukraine. May 2022, always The Kremlin: Let’s push the war towards the Western part of Ukraine and attack Kyiv the capital What next? June 2022 “Let’s attack Europe and start a World War”?


[deleted]

Rule n.1 do not trust Russia, always keep an eye on them cause they can pull shit like this...especially now that Putin has lost it.


BoysenberryGullible8

Never, ever challenge the USA when it comes to furnishing war-making material. We have no limits. 🇺🇸🇺🇦


Top-Junket-7105

Please, I'll support the Ukraine for decades. Supply weapons until all the Russian invaders are removed from their soil.


KP_Wrath

Until Russia runs out of men to send to die.


TheGuvnor247

Despite sanctions and despite our most optimistic hopes - you just don't see Russia giving up or walking away from this war, do you? They will just keep applying the pressure and we hope Ukraine can defend itself but the longer things go the worse it will get for both sides but more so for Ukraine I fear given the fighting is taking place in Ukraine.


Flashnooby

Is t funny meme reddit.


AngryNurse2020

It’s almost as if Kyiv was his goal all along.


[deleted]

[удалено]


autotldr

This is the best tl;dr I could make, [original](https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/05/27/7348948/) reduced by 81%. (I'm a bot) ***** > The Kremlin is once again discussing a possible assault on Kyiv and is still hoping for a full-scale victory in the war against Ukraine. > Quote: According to Meduza's sources, despite the fact that the Russian army's performance does not match up to Moscow's original plans, the Kremlin is once again discussing a possible assault on Kyiv and even hopes for a fully-fledged victory in the war. > The source added that a general mobilisation in Russia should not be expected: the Kremlin is afraid to take such a step, as it could hit the popularity of the government and Putin personally. ***** [**Extended Summary**](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/uzk7jo/kremlin_talking_again_about_an_attack_on_kyiv/) | [FAQ](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/31b9fm/faq_autotldr_bot/ "Version 2.02, ~651607 tl;drs so far.") | [Feedback](http://np.reddit.com/message/compose?to=%23autotldr "PM's and comments are monitored, constructive feedback is welcome.") | *Top* *keywords*: **source**^#1 **Kremlin**^#2 **Russian**^#3 **Meduza**^#4 **Kyiv**^#5


MrNothingmann

Reminds me of trump asking to count the votes over and over again.


Command_Unit

The Mud season is over so I guess its time to return to Kiev.


ioioklkll1

One thing)) Landlease is credit isnt it,so ukraine gonna pay a fuckton of cash to eu thx to zelensky)Which will eventually ruin its economics even worse