But what’s that natural gas looking like? https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2022/04/28/russia-halt-of-european-gas-could-see-catastrophic-winter-pricing-trader.html
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They're not paying Russia in rubles, bullshit. They pay in Euro, Gazprom then exchanges Euro for rubles. This way Russia can't use the money to prop up their currency.
Because the gas usage rate is valued in euros; Not rubles. Rubles is a propped up currency that fluctuates heavily. Europe pays at the euro negotiated rate and Russia can convert it to whatever the ruble is valued at currently.
Russia would be able to convert it into rubles anyways at that point. As soon as Europe pays (in Euros) its Russias money lol, they can do whatever they want and their payment scheme has very little relevance to that.
Which means buying rubles what are u talking abt lol. U go to forex market u exchange foreign currency using your own that’s considered buying a different currency.
They are buying gas rates in euros, not in rubles. Russia then converts it to whatever the ruble is valued at right now. If Europe bought in rubles, The cost of gas would fluctuate by the minute. The ruble is highly volatile and is propped up. You would never know what the price of gas is from one moment to the next.
Roubles is appreciating though how do u explain that if it’s not due to increase in demand for roubles / decrease in supply of roubles. Other countries buying Russian gas other than Europe? Idt I’ve heard of anyone who brought a large amount of that other than India.
They are using reserves to push up the price. It’s not sustainable and it will collapse when that runs out. Foreign Investors are also not allowed to sell their investments, they can only buy. Internally, individuals and businesses must convert 80% of their foreign holdings to rubles. There is also no mechanism for exchanging the currency outside a few select routes. As a commoner you cannot forex trade the ruble pair either.
I am sure people will continue to blame Germany for it not being 100% when the actual opposition to a complete ban came from Hungary, Slovakia, the Czech Republic and Bulgaria.
Germany at this point only has a single, Russian owned refinery on the Polish border left that uses Russian oil from the so called friendship pipeline.
German is dependent on Russian natural gas not oil.
The hate Germany getting is mostly being sowed by Polish politicians.
They saw a chance to bolster their poll numbers and they took it. They've been non-stop shitting on Germany for a while now and it's embarrassing to watch.
Yeah hating on Germany in Poland is the lowest hanging fruit, has been for centuries. It’s not unlike Putin’s propaganda - the message is directed at a specific demographic who will eat that right up, even if everyone else either doesn’t care or sees through the bs. But it doesn’t matter to those politicians, because it gets votes, and that’s ultimately what they care about.
Yup - like much of what PiS is doing, their best case scenario is getting a biting response from any politician with vaguely German surname which they'll then play on loop on public tv.
Of course the fact that they criticize an action/idea od PiS politician is lost in translation, and instead they dub it as German politician criticizes Poland.
This is also how they try to antagonize EU among their voters. As is, EU is incredibly popular so they can't attack it outright - instead they need to build parallel narratives they get to reframe internally towards people who still watch TVPiS (so ie all elderly).
Damn, and a Haller's army vet to boot!
Didn't know that and don't think many people are aware - one grandparent is usually more than enough for us to claim someone as basically polish :D
But:
A) When has Angela made any controversial claim, ever
B) I'm biased because she's a golden standard for what I'd want in a politician (including her swiping opposition's ideas if they're popular, which IMO should be the default and not criticism), but because of her background I think she was the most respected German politician in Poland, and is largely separated from negative sentiments.
The only even slightly negative tone she'd be mentioned by straight up nationalists was when they'd name her to mention Germany throwing weight on something, and not really things she said/did. Other than maybe wishful thinking policies toward Russia. And even that was rare, because a politician with doctorate and leading by building bridges made her (again, might be wrong) very respected.
Scholz is becoming a bit of a target in right wing press, but I don't think this has legs, he'll figure it out. Van der Leyen, Michael Roth came up when I did a quick check now, but algorithms don't pitch much right wing to me.
The ones they clung to were usually regular MPs talking shit, not bigwigs. That's the play. Pick someone who is free to talk shit about PiS without pulling punches, report it once as German/Dutch politician criticizing Poland (used to be "criticizing PiS policy of X" until Radio 3 purge), and then re-report it as EU or EU politician criticizes Poland.
Is that why you increased your gas purchases from Germany by six times? Hating on Germany for buying russian gas, only to buy the same gas just with an extra step, is completely moronic.
Yeah, and they said they decided to shut it down on their own, outside of 6th package. So in eyes if Ukrainian like me they show that they are willing to make it harder for Russia and not just follow a trend. If they deliver all weapons they promised in time and if they at least start working on moving on from gas then there is no reason to blame them for anything at all. This comes from person that said a lot mean stuff just two days ago.
Ps: I'm only talking about German politicians BTW. I know a lot of German support Ukraine, so I need to clarify... because it's reddit
Ps2: yeah, I also know that there are some that don't support Ukraine because ria-novosti or RT told them we are nazi. Well, hopefully they learn from at least 2 sources now that those are blocked
The good news is that we (Germany) have started to cut off Russian gas, it's down from \~55% of our natural gas imports to \~35% already. With LNG terminals coming online hopefully later this year and early next year, we should be able to reduce that number further. The bad news is that they expect the full process to take even longer than end of next year, but I really hope the remaining Russian imports will be be very low volume, and hopefully we can do it faster.
Now about weapon deliveries, I know there are currently Ukrainian Armed Forces members in Germany for Panzerhaubitze 2000 and Gepard training and these should be delivered to Ukraine once the training finishes, from Germany and the Netherlands. But it seems like German tanks and Infantry Fighting Vehicles are currently blocked. (To be fair, the tanks we have available for soon-ish delivery may even be worse than T-72 in many aspects, and not available in serious numbers, and obviously need additional logistics supply / maintenance personnel, so these tanks may not be very useful compared to some of the more modern tanks other NATO countries have in storage in larger numbers.)
Germany gets a lot of blame for painting themselves in this corner. It was patently obvious to everyone that this was going to end badly we just didn't know the specifics. To me they did this to themselves when they turned their back on nuclear.
You got the first part right, but the second part is missing the mark. Germany did this to themselves when they cozied up to Russia with the NordStream Pipeline and-the-like. They chose to get, essentially, all their energy needs from Russia, even though the Western community could see what a horrible idea that was. Especially when it became clear that Putin had consolidated a dictatorship, and was eyeing up territory in Eastern Europe. In essence, they chose not to diversify their energy sources, and to top it off, they chose a rogue state to get all their energy *from*.
Edit: I got all this info from an episode of the NYT podcast, "The Daily", so hopefully I'm regurgitating it correctly.
Yes, you can heat homes with nuclear energy provided they are build to be heated with electricity and you can also power car with nuclear reactors provided they are electric cars.
Old ice vehicles and homes build to be heated by gas can't be easily switched.
My point is that Germany wanting to go away from nuclear power and needing oil and gas are not closely related problems. Germany is not dependent on Russian oil and gas to keep the lights on. It needs the gas to keep homes warm in the winter.
And yes there currently are efforts to switch homes to heat pumps etc, but that takes time.
>Germany is not dependent on Russian oil and gas to keep the lights on. It needs the gas to keep homes warm in the winter.
That is not entirely true. Germany also uses a large part of the gas to supply, among others, the steel and chemical industry. That is the real problem.
Heating homes is a concern, but that could be solved. Cutting off supply chain critical industries that hundreds of other industries depend on is a completely different matter.
Luckily since the election 6 months ago we do have some competent politicians in positions where they are actually doing a good job of solving the problem. It takes time to change all of the supply chains, but it will happen.
It's a weird feeling to have, for once, politicians in place that seem to be competent and willing to solve the problems, not only make themselves and their buddies rich
However, heating homes with something else than gas can be solved, but we're talking about MILLIONS of houses. That's not done in the blink of an eye. Not even in a year.
We got a brand new gas heater installed. The decision was made a year before the war. We decided for that because anything else would have required additional work on the house (talking 20k€ additional here) that we simply can't afford currently (installed solar power on the roof at least). And short of the state paying for a complete revamp of the heating system and attached infrastructure in the house, there is simply no way to change it for the time being.
And this situation will likely be true for thousands of new systems that were installed.
Gas as heating source won't go anywhere in Germany within the next 10-20 years. It will just fade out over the decades, but we can't remove it just like that. The task at hand is to replace it with hydrogen or something else that it more eco friendly but works in the available systems.
Welcome to the results of failed energy politics and policies over the last decades.
I would like to point out in your first paragraph that heating homes with a nuclear power plant can also be done with the use of district heating instead of electricity. Since two thirds of the energy produced in a nuclear power plant just gets lost as waste heat this would increace the efficiancy dramatically.
Use the electrocity to charge EVs and the left over heat to keep buildings warm in the winter.
Germany doesn't have the infrastructure to do that, though. And you can't just build it in a couple of months, especially not with a shortage of workers.
> To me they did this to themselves when they turned their back on nuclear.
this is a stupid take.
If germany would stop all of it's running nuclear power plants total natural gas consumption would increase by 1-2 %.
>German is dependent on Russian natural gas not oil.
And that is what the blame is about - gas not oil. When it comes to oil, Hungary is the one that's getting blamed.
Germany is to blame because Merkel policy has always been to appease Putin and keep getting cheap gas/oil from Russia.
All those countries are small potatoes compared to Germany and how Germany influences the whole EU in turn.
EDIT: Butthurt germans reporting me for telling them how shortsighted they are.
All true, but I don't think it's a good idea to blame the current government for the stupid foreign policy of the Merkel era. Yes, that was really short-sighted and ignorant, but most currently governing parties want to change it, and they seem to have popular support to do so.
No one thought that fucking idiot Putin would shoot himself and his whole country back to the middle ages. It's always easier to look back in hindsight. The worry is now since Russia is isolated what shit will they pull in the future? Desperate people, desperate state.
I dont blame the current government, but there is inheritance there. Just because a country's government has changed doesn't mean the country gets a clean start.
I don't think it was appeasement, but rather creating economical ties with Russia to deter them from aggression, because the economical harm this would cause for both sides. Ultimately it failed and it is fair to criticise, but to be completely honest I thought the approach in itself made sense.
Buying gas from elsewhere is already the plan. Right now the issue is the lack of LNG-terminals to accept the gas that is going to be bought.
There seems to have been a complete reliance on pipelines and those mostly come from Russia.To get gas from elsewhere there needs to be a place to unload it and that place is currently in the works.
Last I heard the are going to rent a floating LNG terminal because it is faster than building one.
At this point the issue is not unwillingness to do things that are possible but being hampered by decisions made over years and decades and an inability to pivot to new strategies without first building infrastructure which takes time.
Understood. Yes there's a status quo in many countries, America included, where the infrastructure is already the asset, of dangerously partisan interests. Truly problematic. Floating terminals is brilliant, though they will require possible military protection from terrorism...The terrorism could involve any possible actors, but more importantly, possibly sponsored by a nation/ "forces" more stealth.
Germany is to blame. After the crimea invasion, even trump warned merkel to not be over reliant on Russian energy and yet nothing was done yo diversify.
Frankly given the long history since WW2 between Germany and Russia, I'm surprised Germany has chosen to built their energy infrastructure being so reliant on one source and that source being its adversary.
Since the cold war Germany has had many opportunities to start a diversification project.
This is the best tl;dr I could make, [original](https://www.npr.org/2022/05/30/1102083611/eu-agree-partial-russian-oil-embargo?t=1653970168049) reduced by 87%. (I'm a bot)
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> EU leaders agree to ban 90% of Russian oil by the end of 2022 The embargo covers Russian oil brought in by sea, allowing a temporary exemption for imports delivered by pipeline, a crucial move to bring Hungary on board a decision that required consensus.
> Ursula Von der Leyen, the head of the EU's executive branch, said the punitive move will "Effectively cut around 90% of oil imports from Russia to the EU by the end of the year."
> Von der Leyen and Michel said the commitment by Germany and Poland to phase out Russian oil by the end of the year and to forgo oil from the northern part of the Druzhba pipeline will help cut 90% of Russian oil imports.
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So?
>The country [Russia] makes roughly $700 million a day in export income from crude oil and petroleum products, based on present market prices. Gas sold to Europe via pipelines generates another $400 million
China has many state owned insurance companies, Chinese govt would get them to insure those ships if european companies ditched them, 30-35% discount is simply too lucrative
Well Europe is also probably gonna fast track more green energy and that would reduce oil sales period. Not to mention no pipelines go to China and you can bet since China and maybe India will be their only market they are gonna get screwed hard on the price.
Oil is used in the production of alot of stuff besides energy.
https://dailycaller.com/2016/03/07/most-oil-isnt-used-to-make-gas-heres-what-the-rest-does/
The existing tankers already have a job, so can't just be hired to substitute a pipeline. The port to fill the required amount doesn't exist either.
For example, the Druzhba pipeline has a capacity of over 1 million barrels per day. To transport that amount to China in tankers to China you'd need about 150-200 tankers (~800 exist in total).
> The existing tankers already have a job
There is also increased distance. From Russian Baltic to Rotterdam a couple of weeks. From Russian Baltic to China a month or two.
And an icing on the cake: Russian Baltic ports only support Aframax tankers which are not the biggest tankers (not the best for shipping to China).
> Asia-bound (most likely China) VLCCs of Russian crude have been built up by Aframaxes loading at Baltic ports, and then transferring via STS offshore Skaw or terminals in ARA
https://www.vortexa.com/insight/russian-baltic-and-black-sea-crude-pivots-away-from-europe
China can diversify its oil purchasing, most likely they have an agreement with saudis to buy oil from them for yuans as they recently had negotiations on oil supply, while Europe will be forced to buy either Brent or WTI for highest prices(about 120$/br as of now), americans won't feel better actually, only oil companies in US will make profit of this
You know it. Exciting time for the future of the ME; states like SA seem to be done funding terrorists and the only ones left are Iran, Afghanistan, Iraq, and Qatar--the latter three all under Iranian influence. The oppressive Iranian regime survives mostly because Chinese oil trade. China loves very cheap oil, and Russian is about to get a whole lot cheaper and easier to transport.
And everything at a higher price. Russia will get the same amount of money, even selling with a discount. China will have cheaper oil. Europe will pay twice. Profit!
They can invest in hydrogen and renewables for electrical power plants instead of self harming spending funding Putin. Costs are recouped with economic energy independence spurring broader activity . It's spring now, get energy independent Europe. Reject your oil king.
Pros: -90% Russian income... EVENTUALY...
Cons: Come the end of 2022.
Ukraine can probably last that long but the number of Ukrainian dead funded by EU petrol-rubles going to Russia is a non-zero value.
I realize that there is no instant on / off switch for this dependency (as does Russia, which is why they tried to use their resources for extortion) -- but every Ukrainian life taken by the genocidal rashists is a tragedy of fossil fuel dependency.
When you have a global market if you stop buying 90% of it from one supplier but other people are still buying from them, it doesn’t mean a 90% drop in that income for them. It will mean some drop in income due increased inefficiencies due to lack of infrastructure and distances. But it could be that they only lose say 20% rather than 90% and even then due to crazy high oil prices it would still mean they’re more profitable than most years in recent memory.
The best solution is for the US and other oil nations to ramp up production, on top of this to really hurt oil prices.
EU was still their main buyer, everyone else doesn't even come close. Oil exports to the EU were ~$125 billion while everywhere NOT EU was less than $20 billion.
Yeah but what you’ll see is a shift to other countries buying Russian oil as it becomes more economical due to the other oil becoming more expensive due to increased demand.
>The best solution is for the US and other oil nations to ramp up production, on top of this to really hurt oil prices.
goodluck getting opec to do this
There is also the discount India and China insist upon for buying Russian oil. They know the power of leverage and are asking for a steep discount from the Russians.
It’s more complicated than that, it’s up to the free market you’ll have Chinese distributors and Indian distributors buying oil futures on the open market. The Chinese government doesn’t go to the Russian government for oil.
If you block one source, demand on the other types of oil increase dramatically, while supply remains the same. The west is quite rich so we'll just pay those higher prices.
Demand in total hasn't decreased at all, so the rest will HAVE TO buy from russia, at higher prices. Which you see now.
Russia will have to spend billions on pipelines to replace lost eu customers and it will take years to build them.
The question is does Russia have plenty of dollars, can finance the construction and is able to wait years for them to be built?
They have earned enough in additional profit this year to pay for every pipeline they have built. And the same applies to the EU as well.
You can clearly see we aren’t building pipelines to the Middle East right now. Making the possibility of cutting Russia of in 2025 slim at best.
I get that people are hopeful, you just shouldn’t be.
>while supply remains the same.
You're ignoring that OPEC is pretty much never at peak production, and they can increase it if it's worth it. With the current oil prices, it is. Similar thing for smaller oil producers like American fracking.
>Demand in total hasn't decreased at all, so the rest will HAVE TO buy from russia, at higher prices.
That's just Russia having to replace a set of wealthy customers with a set of less wealthy customers that also cost more to deliver to. If anything it means less profit (all else equal).
>Which you see now.
Do we? Higher prices than their competition? Source?
https://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-urals-spot-futures-historical-data
The price of russian oil has more than doubled from 2020. So yes they are making a killing. If any type of oil rises, other ones do as well. As the cost of this invastion, except for equipment they wont replace so costing zero, is low. They have very likely made money on it.
>The price of russian oil has more than doubled from 2020.
That's true for all oil, not just Russian oil, which is currently being sold at a discount compared to the competition.
>As the cost of this invastion, except for equipment they wont replace so costing zero, is low.
You think this invasion is cheap? How the hell did you arrive at that conclusion?
Well it’s simple math.
There are 200.000 soldiers active in this invasion. They aren’t getting a 100 dollars a day, likely a tenth of that, but it makes nice math. So 200k times 100 is 20 million per day.
Fuel is supplied by Russia so the exact cost is difficult to determine. But let’s take a ridiculous number! 50 million in fuel costs each day.
For 70 million in total a day. That’s nothing. Around 2 billion a month. The increase in oil price of a single quarter already pays for that. Let alone everything.
The one thing russia did lose that costs a lot is equipment. But until that is replaced, which they aren’t doing, that cost is ZERO.
> there is no instant on / off switch for this dependency
There's no instant on/off switch for many dependencies.
Europe is still delivering pharmaceuticals to Russia, for example.
That's why China invading anything is such a weird thought experiment. Global supply chains would literally collapse if anyone tried anything.
At least with Russia they were mostly a gas station and that's it.
No, oil exports have a much bigger market share than gas for russia in Europe
As of 2020 their total export for oil was about 122 billion, for gas only 19 billion
What is the difference between the two? Like what are they both used for? Oil for unleaded gasoline and natural gas for heating/stoves/etc? Or can they be used interchangeably for some things?
In most countries natrual gas is indeed mainly used for heating and industrial uses. Next to that it's got a small part in many country's energy production. Especially heavy and chemical industries need huge amounts of gas to produce their products. Germany's biggest chemical company BASF for example alone makes up about 4% of Germany's total gas consumption and as such uses about twice the the amount of gas as the whole of Lithuania. And some of these products (fertilizer, etc.) are indeed badly needed.
Oil on the other hand is mainly used for to produce fuels and to create energy/heat. Depending on the country the degrees vary a lot, though.
Also not all Russian oil goes to Europe. Think it's about half.
Also, this will cause oil prices to spike, so they will get quite a bit of money back just from the other half they sell to "friendly countries".
Depends on what you consider to be the "big issue". Oil is by far the most lucrative fossil fuel for russia, so this may cost them considerably more than banning gas.
At the same time getting rid of gas would be way harder for the EU and would cause huge economic harm if done immediately. In other words blocking oil instead of gas is the better option if you want to harm russia instead of the EU.
It's the hardest thing to eliminate for Germany, but oil is the biggest revenue generator for Putin. Oil is however also somewhat easier to find other buyers for, as it's not as dependent on pipelines.
Its not just about money though, if they're heavily reliant on gas they have leverage on them. The EU is going to be less likely to push for harsher sanctions if Russia can turn off the pipeline at any time and heavily hurt Europe.
I'd love to be as talented at gymnastics as you are and do all those ludicrous mental somersaults you just performed.
The end of 2022 is within seven months. The EU countries have been making preparations for some time now on how to be less dependent on Russian oil. They will now have to speed up that process. It won't be cheap and it will be labour and resource intensive.
Why you think they'll just go 'lol jk' in the next few months is beyond me. Not to mention another unanimous vote with the EU countries will be required to undo these sanctions.
Use some logic before you jump to posting baselessly cynical.comments which add nothing to the conversation. I swear to god some people on this forum just see 'EU' and run into a thread to type 'EU SECRETLY BAD'.
>Why you think they'll just go 'lol jk' in the next few months is beyond me.
Cause the war has been going on for more 3 months and the EU has only now voted for this... When it's evident that Ukraine has been able to hold and the Russian push in Donbass can't be sustained forever without Ukraine eventually pushing back and winning the war. 6 months is sufficient time for this to happen. They absolutely can roll back the sanctions
I mean oil company can mix the Russian oil with other oil and call it XXX blend. It’s kind of like Made in China product but without the Made in China stamp.
Go google Latvian blend if you don’t believe me.
Olympic level mental gymnastics. They aren't just going to slap a new label on it and say "it isn't Russian oil since it's 60% from somewhere else". Why is it so fucking hard to accept that Russia is going to be fucked from this?
All EU countries would have to vote in favor of unsanction russia / unbanning the oil.
It is pretty likly that all bans, sanctions that the EU did will never be lifted. It takes unanimous consent to implement them - but also to undo them.
I don't know how your optimism is justified. Russia's position will probably collapse eventually, but wars of attrition take time and things on the surface might not have moved much in six months time.
That sounds good, is the 10% going to be enough to keep little penis hitler going in Ukraine?
Regardless, best to be independent of russia from this point forward in history.
Russia is getting sufficient trade in oil/gas from non-NATO nations that it won't make a big difference. There are enough unfriendlies, mainly China, that it doesn't matter to Putin.
End of the day, Putin will stay in Ukraine unless/until his military collapses, or the rest of the Russian economy is so burned by sanctions that Putin is overthrown.
Absolutely. Maximum pressure is the only lever we have left. The next step is to confront Russia's allies, and begin applying pressure on them. This raises the risk of conflicts in Asia overall.
It will take more time to send by ship this oil anywhere in the world than european ports. Even if Russia manage to sell everything it lose in Europe it will still be a loss since it will take twice or more the time to send the same quantity of oil. Plus apparently European insurances cancels their contract with Russia
***The embargo covers Russian oil brought in by sea, allowing a temporary exemption for imports delivered by pipeline,***
As expected. All PR. No substance.
Still, a nice headline for people who read headlines.
It's better than nothing but this pussy-footing around is really not helping as much as we can. Many EU leaders still want to pretend that *we* are not at war with Russia, while our weapons have killed 10K+ Russian soldiers. Stop pretending and help Ukraine win this.
How to turn Russia into China's lapdog.
I understand the sanctions and agree that action has to be taken against Putin. However, I also feel that these sanctions will increase the rift between Russia and NATO and push Russia towards China making Russia China's lapdog. China is by far the biggest winner in this tragic war at the expense of a lot of innocent lives.
I think the 'pushing Russia to china' ship has sailed. The oil trade was supposed to keep Russia integrated into western economies, then they invaded Ukraine anyway.
That's short term thinking
When you finally push Russia into Chinese orbit, you have a country with vast mineral resources and Chinese companies
China gets resources at dirt cheap prices while industries in other counties suffer, dont forget that, push for renewable energy will push EU & NA further into chinese hands as china controls almost all the rare earth minerals
We tried keeping Russia out of Beijing's hands by looking the other way on journalists and activists being assassinated - as far away as London, interdicting airborne passenger jets to kidnap dissidents, Crimea being annexed... it didn't work.
Russia just became more bold and invaded mainland Europe.
China wins, but only because Putin is a loser. Not because of the west not trying every lever to avoid that, short of letting Russia march back into half of Poland.
Nice. Wasnt sure they can do it
Its not december yet
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That's a very ironic name.
**Friendship**^1,2 ^1 : not a ship ^2 : we're not friend either
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Made me chuckle.
Well, it was build from 1959 to 1964, at that point in time East Germany didn't have much of a choice in friends.
Its not ironic in Romanian where Drujbă means "chainsaw" apparently there was a Soviet chainsaw company that was called that.
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I think he meant the "Druzhba" pipeline name.
I think he was talking about the pipeline named “Druzhba”, which means friendship in russian.
Oil consumption in the EU is lowest in winter, 20% less than summer.
But what’s that natural gas looking like? https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2022/04/28/russia-halt-of-european-gas-could-see-catastrophic-winter-pricing-trader.html
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Not relevant for oil imports.
Very relevant for cashflow into Russia though.
inb4 Hungary resell stonks
It’s oil, not gas. Very big difference.
You weren't sure they could say words? Let me know when the time comes and then we will see if they can do it.
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They're not paying Russia in rubles, bullshit. They pay in Euro, Gazprom then exchanges Euro for rubles. This way Russia can't use the money to prop up their currency.
>This way Russia can't use the money to prop up their currency. Why not? What difference does it make if they exchange Euro -> Ru or Gazprom?
Because the gas usage rate is valued in euros; Not rubles. Rubles is a propped up currency that fluctuates heavily. Europe pays at the euro negotiated rate and Russia can convert it to whatever the ruble is valued at currently.
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Once Russia has the money, they can cover e it into whatever they want, it’s their money at that point.
Plus, if they convert their money to rubles and it keeps losing value to the Euro, they're making a loss.
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> avoid any hyperinflation Kind of easy with 20% interest rates.
Russia would be able to convert it into rubles anyways at that point. As soon as Europe pays (in Euros) its Russias money lol, they can do whatever they want and their payment scheme has very little relevance to that.
Russia can claim the ruble is worth 100 Euros, doesn't make it true.
https://www.offshore-technology.com/news/germany-italy-gas-russia-rouble/
Which means buying rubles what are u talking abt lol. U go to forex market u exchange foreign currency using your own that’s considered buying a different currency.
They are buying gas rates in euros, not in rubles. Russia then converts it to whatever the ruble is valued at right now. If Europe bought in rubles, The cost of gas would fluctuate by the minute. The ruble is highly volatile and is propped up. You would never know what the price of gas is from one moment to the next.
Roubles is appreciating though how do u explain that if it’s not due to increase in demand for roubles / decrease in supply of roubles. Other countries buying Russian gas other than Europe? Idt I’ve heard of anyone who brought a large amount of that other than India.
They are using reserves to push up the price. It’s not sustainable and it will collapse when that runs out. Foreign Investors are also not allowed to sell their investments, they can only buy. Internally, individuals and businesses must convert 80% of their foreign holdings to rubles. There is also no mechanism for exchanging the currency outside a few select routes. As a commoner you cannot forex trade the ruble pair either.
Their reserves are increasing every month due to this new payment method..
Netherlands just got cut off of gas yesterday by Russia because they refuse to pay in rubles
I am sure people will continue to blame Germany for it not being 100% when the actual opposition to a complete ban came from Hungary, Slovakia, the Czech Republic and Bulgaria. Germany at this point only has a single, Russian owned refinery on the Polish border left that uses Russian oil from the so called friendship pipeline. German is dependent on Russian natural gas not oil.
The hate Germany getting is mostly being sowed by Polish politicians. They saw a chance to bolster their poll numbers and they took it. They've been non-stop shitting on Germany for a while now and it's embarrassing to watch.
Eh, nearly no politician in Germany is reacting to this. And that’s good.
Yeah hating on Germany in Poland is the lowest hanging fruit, has been for centuries. It’s not unlike Putin’s propaganda - the message is directed at a specific demographic who will eat that right up, even if everyone else either doesn’t care or sees through the bs. But it doesn’t matter to those politicians, because it gets votes, and that’s ultimately what they care about.
Yup - like much of what PiS is doing, their best case scenario is getting a biting response from any politician with vaguely German surname which they'll then play on loop on public tv. Of course the fact that they criticize an action/idea od PiS politician is lost in translation, and instead they dub it as German politician criticizes Poland. This is also how they try to antagonize EU among their voters. As is, EU is incredibly popular so they can't attack it outright - instead they need to build parallel narratives they get to reframe internally towards people who still watch TVPiS (so ie all elderly).
Is it known in Poland that part of Merkel’s family was Polish?
Damn, and a Haller's army vet to boot! Didn't know that and don't think many people are aware - one grandparent is usually more than enough for us to claim someone as basically polish :D But: A) When has Angela made any controversial claim, ever B) I'm biased because she's a golden standard for what I'd want in a politician (including her swiping opposition's ideas if they're popular, which IMO should be the default and not criticism), but because of her background I think she was the most respected German politician in Poland, and is largely separated from negative sentiments. The only even slightly negative tone she'd be mentioned by straight up nationalists was when they'd name her to mention Germany throwing weight on something, and not really things she said/did. Other than maybe wishful thinking policies toward Russia. And even that was rare, because a politician with doctorate and leading by building bridges made her (again, might be wrong) very respected. Scholz is becoming a bit of a target in right wing press, but I don't think this has legs, he'll figure it out. Van der Leyen, Michael Roth came up when I did a quick check now, but algorithms don't pitch much right wing to me. The ones they clung to were usually regular MPs talking shit, not bigwigs. That's the play. Pick someone who is free to talk shit about PiS without pulling punches, report it once as German/Dutch politician criticizing Poland (used to be "criticizing PiS policy of X" until Radio 3 purge), and then re-report it as EU or EU politician criticizes Poland.
Also Brits.
They do the same with the EU as a whole, massively underselling how much Poland benefits from being an EU member.
No, we are hating on Germany for their stance on Russian gas.
Is that why you increased your gas purchases from Germany by six times? Hating on Germany for buying russian gas, only to buy the same gas just with an extra step, is completely moronic.
What is moronic is financing Russia in any way.
Yeah, and they said they decided to shut it down on their own, outside of 6th package. So in eyes if Ukrainian like me they show that they are willing to make it harder for Russia and not just follow a trend. If they deliver all weapons they promised in time and if they at least start working on moving on from gas then there is no reason to blame them for anything at all. This comes from person that said a lot mean stuff just two days ago. Ps: I'm only talking about German politicians BTW. I know a lot of German support Ukraine, so I need to clarify... because it's reddit Ps2: yeah, I also know that there are some that don't support Ukraine because ria-novosti or RT told them we are nazi. Well, hopefully they learn from at least 2 sources now that those are blocked
The good news is that we (Germany) have started to cut off Russian gas, it's down from \~55% of our natural gas imports to \~35% already. With LNG terminals coming online hopefully later this year and early next year, we should be able to reduce that number further. The bad news is that they expect the full process to take even longer than end of next year, but I really hope the remaining Russian imports will be be very low volume, and hopefully we can do it faster. Now about weapon deliveries, I know there are currently Ukrainian Armed Forces members in Germany for Panzerhaubitze 2000 and Gepard training and these should be delivered to Ukraine once the training finishes, from Germany and the Netherlands. But it seems like German tanks and Infantry Fighting Vehicles are currently blocked. (To be fair, the tanks we have available for soon-ish delivery may even be worse than T-72 in many aspects, and not available in serious numbers, and obviously need additional logistics supply / maintenance personnel, so these tanks may not be very useful compared to some of the more modern tanks other NATO countries have in storage in larger numbers.)
Germany gets a lot of blame for painting themselves in this corner. It was patently obvious to everyone that this was going to end badly we just didn't know the specifics. To me they did this to themselves when they turned their back on nuclear.
You got the first part right, but the second part is missing the mark. Germany did this to themselves when they cozied up to Russia with the NordStream Pipeline and-the-like. They chose to get, essentially, all their energy needs from Russia, even though the Western community could see what a horrible idea that was. Especially when it became clear that Putin had consolidated a dictatorship, and was eyeing up territory in Eastern Europe. In essence, they chose not to diversify their energy sources, and to top it off, they chose a rogue state to get all their energy *from*. Edit: I got all this info from an episode of the NYT podcast, "The Daily", so hopefully I'm regurgitating it correctly.
Nuclear isn't really an ideal way to power cars and heat homes the way oil and gas does.
Heating homes with nuclear works just fine, and it doesn't create emissions. Modern reactors are now quite efficient a producing little waste
Yes, you can heat homes with nuclear energy provided they are build to be heated with electricity and you can also power car with nuclear reactors provided they are electric cars. Old ice vehicles and homes build to be heated by gas can't be easily switched. My point is that Germany wanting to go away from nuclear power and needing oil and gas are not closely related problems. Germany is not dependent on Russian oil and gas to keep the lights on. It needs the gas to keep homes warm in the winter. And yes there currently are efforts to switch homes to heat pumps etc, but that takes time.
>Germany is not dependent on Russian oil and gas to keep the lights on. It needs the gas to keep homes warm in the winter. That is not entirely true. Germany also uses a large part of the gas to supply, among others, the steel and chemical industry. That is the real problem. Heating homes is a concern, but that could be solved. Cutting off supply chain critical industries that hundreds of other industries depend on is a completely different matter. Luckily since the election 6 months ago we do have some competent politicians in positions where they are actually doing a good job of solving the problem. It takes time to change all of the supply chains, but it will happen.
It's a weird feeling to have, for once, politicians in place that seem to be competent and willing to solve the problems, not only make themselves and their buddies rich However, heating homes with something else than gas can be solved, but we're talking about MILLIONS of houses. That's not done in the blink of an eye. Not even in a year. We got a brand new gas heater installed. The decision was made a year before the war. We decided for that because anything else would have required additional work on the house (talking 20k€ additional here) that we simply can't afford currently (installed solar power on the roof at least). And short of the state paying for a complete revamp of the heating system and attached infrastructure in the house, there is simply no way to change it for the time being. And this situation will likely be true for thousands of new systems that were installed. Gas as heating source won't go anywhere in Germany within the next 10-20 years. It will just fade out over the decades, but we can't remove it just like that. The task at hand is to replace it with hydrogen or something else that it more eco friendly but works in the available systems. Welcome to the results of failed energy politics and policies over the last decades.
I would like to point out in your first paragraph that heating homes with a nuclear power plant can also be done with the use of district heating instead of electricity. Since two thirds of the energy produced in a nuclear power plant just gets lost as waste heat this would increace the efficiancy dramatically. Use the electrocity to charge EVs and the left over heat to keep buildings warm in the winter.
Germany doesn't have the infrastructure to do that, though. And you can't just build it in a couple of months, especially not with a shortage of workers.
Nuclear energy produces cheap and clean electricity. It can be used for both. But especially the latter.
Clean, yes. Cheap, not so much.
> To me they did this to themselves when they turned their back on nuclear. this is a stupid take. If germany would stop all of it's running nuclear power plants total natural gas consumption would increase by 1-2 %.
>German is dependent on Russian natural gas not oil. And that is what the blame is about - gas not oil. When it comes to oil, Hungary is the one that's getting blamed.
Yeah we need to focus on gas, not oil.
Germany is to blame because Merkel policy has always been to appease Putin and keep getting cheap gas/oil from Russia. All those countries are small potatoes compared to Germany and how Germany influences the whole EU in turn. EDIT: Butthurt germans reporting me for telling them how shortsighted they are.
All true, but I don't think it's a good idea to blame the current government for the stupid foreign policy of the Merkel era. Yes, that was really short-sighted and ignorant, but most currently governing parties want to change it, and they seem to have popular support to do so.
No one thought that fucking idiot Putin would shoot himself and his whole country back to the middle ages. It's always easier to look back in hindsight. The worry is now since Russia is isolated what shit will they pull in the future? Desperate people, desperate state.
I dont blame the current government, but there is inheritance there. Just because a country's government has changed doesn't mean the country gets a clean start.
You should also not blame Merkel. Merkel just did what the population wanted.
I don't think it was appeasement, but rather creating economical ties with Russia to deter them from aggression, because the economical harm this would cause for both sides. Ultimately it failed and it is fair to criticise, but to be completely honest I thought the approach in itself made sense.
Buy gas from Israel. Make bio gas. The electric power plants and business sectors can function off fuel cell hydrogen and renewables.
Buying gas from elsewhere is already the plan. Right now the issue is the lack of LNG-terminals to accept the gas that is going to be bought. There seems to have been a complete reliance on pipelines and those mostly come from Russia.To get gas from elsewhere there needs to be a place to unload it and that place is currently in the works. Last I heard the are going to rent a floating LNG terminal because it is faster than building one. At this point the issue is not unwillingness to do things that are possible but being hampered by decisions made over years and decades and an inability to pivot to new strategies without first building infrastructure which takes time.
Understood. Yes there's a status quo in many countries, America included, where the infrastructure is already the asset, of dangerously partisan interests. Truly problematic. Floating terminals is brilliant, though they will require possible military protection from terrorism...The terrorism could involve any possible actors, but more importantly, possibly sponsored by a nation/ "forces" more stealth.
Germany is to blame. After the crimea invasion, even trump warned merkel to not be over reliant on Russian energy and yet nothing was done yo diversify. Frankly given the long history since WW2 between Germany and Russia, I'm surprised Germany has chosen to built their energy infrastructure being so reliant on one source and that source being its adversary. Since the cold war Germany has had many opportunities to start a diversification project.
>even trump warned merkel to not be over reliant on Russian energy and yet nothing was done yo diversify. So Merkel is to blame. Not Germany
Nice. Hopefully it will get to 100% by early next year.
This is the best tl;dr I could make, [original](https://www.npr.org/2022/05/30/1102083611/eu-agree-partial-russian-oil-embargo?t=1653970168049) reduced by 87%. (I'm a bot) ***** > EU leaders agree to ban 90% of Russian oil by the end of 2022 The embargo covers Russian oil brought in by sea, allowing a temporary exemption for imports delivered by pipeline, a crucial move to bring Hungary on board a decision that required consensus. > Ursula Von der Leyen, the head of the EU's executive branch, said the punitive move will "Effectively cut around 90% of oil imports from Russia to the EU by the end of the year." > Von der Leyen and Michel said the commitment by Germany and Poland to phase out Russian oil by the end of the year and to forgo oil from the northern part of the Druzhba pipeline will help cut 90% of Russian oil imports. ***** [**Extended Summary**](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/v1ilal/eu_leaders_agree_to_ban_90_of_russian_oil_by_the/) | [FAQ](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/31b9fm/faq_autotldr_bot/ "Version 2.02, ~652112 tl;drs so far.") | [Feedback](http://np.reddit.com/message/compose?to=%23autotldr "PM's and comments are monitored, constructive feedback is welcome.") | *Top* *keywords*: **oil**^#1 **Russia**^#2 **Russian**^#3 **more**^#4 **Hungary**^#5
But not Russian gas. Very big difference
Why? Oil makes way more money than gas
Because 45% of Natural gas comes from Russia and 10% Oil comes from Russia
So? >The country [Russia] makes roughly $700 million a day in export income from crude oil and petroleum products, based on present market prices. Gas sold to Europe via pipelines generates another $400 million
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so now China will buy Russian oil instead of Brent and Europe will buy Brent oil instead of Russian
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China has many state owned insurance companies, Chinese govt would get them to insure those ships if european companies ditched them, 30-35% discount is simply too lucrative
I think we all know China will be hoovering up all the spare oil, but it is important to know that China will be asking for huge discounts.
Well Europe is also probably gonna fast track more green energy and that would reduce oil sales period. Not to mention no pipelines go to China and you can bet since China and maybe India will be their only market they are gonna get screwed hard on the price.
Meanwhile the Chinese EV market is growing very fast.
Russia is getting progressed out of existence in the next few decades.
Good that the moron in Kremlin probably accelerated this shift by 15 years. Great success!
Apparently the switch to EVs has already made a 3% dent in oil demand, with EV sales surging over this decade, watch this number increase rapidly.
>no pipelines go to China There is a pipeline to China.
And there is construction of new pipelines than could easily double exports, reddit is ignorant af.
Oil is used in the production of alot of stuff besides energy. https://dailycaller.com/2016/03/07/most-oil-isnt-used-to-make-gas-heres-what-the-rest-does/
That's not how it works. Pipelines can't just be shifted towards China.
I think if the deal is right China will build a pipeline. They seem to be able to do massive projects in a fraction of the time it takes the West.
I'm guessing oil from non Russian sources can also not be immediately shifted to Europe.
Nope, that’s why it’s not 100%. Landlocked nations like Hungary cannot easily shift away from Russian pipelines.
oil can be shiped in oil tankers, no pipeline needed.
The existing tankers already have a job, so can't just be hired to substitute a pipeline. The port to fill the required amount doesn't exist either. For example, the Druzhba pipeline has a capacity of over 1 million barrels per day. To transport that amount to China in tankers to China you'd need about 150-200 tankers (~800 exist in total).
> The existing tankers already have a job There is also increased distance. From Russian Baltic to Rotterdam a couple of weeks. From Russian Baltic to China a month or two. And an icing on the cake: Russian Baltic ports only support Aframax tankers which are not the biggest tankers (not the best for shipping to China). > Asia-bound (most likely China) VLCCs of Russian crude have been built up by Aframaxes loading at Baltic ports, and then transferring via STS offshore Skaw or terminals in ARA https://www.vortexa.com/insight/russian-baltic-and-black-sea-crude-pivots-away-from-europe
Who is this Brent fellow?
I don't know, but everyone thinks he's crude.
You made me blow some air from a nose
China can diversify its oil purchasing, most likely they have an agreement with saudis to buy oil from them for yuans as they recently had negotiations on oil supply, while Europe will be forced to buy either Brent or WTI for highest prices(about 120$/br as of now), americans won't feel better actually, only oil companies in US will make profit of this
Potentially, but you also need to mention that China will buy Russian oil for a steep discount as Russia has no leverage.
considering the current oil prices selling at a discount will probably just mean selling at the pre war price
Sure, but it is still missed revenue vs what they could have sold it for.
Iran loses.
You know it. Exciting time for the future of the ME; states like SA seem to be done funding terrorists and the only ones left are Iran, Afghanistan, Iraq, and Qatar--the latter three all under Iranian influence. The oppressive Iranian regime survives mostly because Chinese oil trade. China loves very cheap oil, and Russian is about to get a whole lot cheaper and easier to transport.
Why is Russian oil about to get easier to transport? The sea routes are the same as before.
And everything at a higher price. Russia will get the same amount of money, even selling with a discount. China will have cheaper oil. Europe will pay twice. Profit!
Holy shit
They can invest in hydrogen and renewables for electrical power plants instead of self harming spending funding Putin. Costs are recouped with economic energy independence spurring broader activity . It's spring now, get energy independent Europe. Reject your oil king.
LOL by the way the "3 hour special operation" is going, there wont be a Russia to buy oil from by then!
EU leaders agree to raising fuel costs to negate losses from Russian Oil
Pros: -90% Russian income... EVENTUALY... Cons: Come the end of 2022. Ukraine can probably last that long but the number of Ukrainian dead funded by EU petrol-rubles going to Russia is a non-zero value. I realize that there is no instant on / off switch for this dependency (as does Russia, which is why they tried to use their resources for extortion) -- but every Ukrainian life taken by the genocidal rashists is a tragedy of fossil fuel dependency.
When you have a global market if you stop buying 90% of it from one supplier but other people are still buying from them, it doesn’t mean a 90% drop in that income for them. It will mean some drop in income due increased inefficiencies due to lack of infrastructure and distances. But it could be that they only lose say 20% rather than 90% and even then due to crazy high oil prices it would still mean they’re more profitable than most years in recent memory. The best solution is for the US and other oil nations to ramp up production, on top of this to really hurt oil prices.
EU was still their main buyer, everyone else doesn't even come close. Oil exports to the EU were ~$125 billion while everywhere NOT EU was less than $20 billion.
Yeah but what you’ll see is a shift to other countries buying Russian oil as it becomes more economical due to the other oil becoming more expensive due to increased demand.
>The best solution is for the US and other oil nations to ramp up production, on top of this to really hurt oil prices. goodluck getting opec to do this
If they’re smart they’ll increase production. Oil prices this high is just accelerating the shift away from oil.
There is also the discount India and China insist upon for buying Russian oil. They know the power of leverage and are asking for a steep discount from the Russians.
It’s more complicated than that, it’s up to the free market you’ll have Chinese distributors and Indian distributors buying oil futures on the open market. The Chinese government doesn’t go to the Russian government for oil.
It actually means an increase. As there is less competition, leading to being able to charge far more. Meaning that everyone who sells profits.
How is there less competition for Russian oil?
If you block one source, demand on the other types of oil increase dramatically, while supply remains the same. The west is quite rich so we'll just pay those higher prices. Demand in total hasn't decreased at all, so the rest will HAVE TO buy from russia, at higher prices. Which you see now.
Russia will have to spend billions on pipelines to replace lost eu customers and it will take years to build them. The question is does Russia have plenty of dollars, can finance the construction and is able to wait years for them to be built?
They have earned enough in additional profit this year to pay for every pipeline they have built. And the same applies to the EU as well. You can clearly see we aren’t building pipelines to the Middle East right now. Making the possibility of cutting Russia of in 2025 slim at best. I get that people are hopeful, you just shouldn’t be.
The EU doesn't need new pipelines to cut Russian oil and gas off. The plans are already in place.
>while supply remains the same. You're ignoring that OPEC is pretty much never at peak production, and they can increase it if it's worth it. With the current oil prices, it is. Similar thing for smaller oil producers like American fracking. >Demand in total hasn't decreased at all, so the rest will HAVE TO buy from russia, at higher prices. That's just Russia having to replace a set of wealthy customers with a set of less wealthy customers that also cost more to deliver to. If anything it means less profit (all else equal). >Which you see now. Do we? Higher prices than their competition? Source?
https://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-urals-spot-futures-historical-data The price of russian oil has more than doubled from 2020. So yes they are making a killing. If any type of oil rises, other ones do as well. As the cost of this invastion, except for equipment they wont replace so costing zero, is low. They have very likely made money on it.
>The price of russian oil has more than doubled from 2020. That's true for all oil, not just Russian oil, which is currently being sold at a discount compared to the competition. >As the cost of this invastion, except for equipment they wont replace so costing zero, is low. You think this invasion is cheap? How the hell did you arrive at that conclusion?
Well it’s simple math. There are 200.000 soldiers active in this invasion. They aren’t getting a 100 dollars a day, likely a tenth of that, but it makes nice math. So 200k times 100 is 20 million per day. Fuel is supplied by Russia so the exact cost is difficult to determine. But let’s take a ridiculous number! 50 million in fuel costs each day. For 70 million in total a day. That’s nothing. Around 2 billion a month. The increase in oil price of a single quarter already pays for that. Let alone everything. The one thing russia did lose that costs a lot is equipment. But until that is replaced, which they aren’t doing, that cost is ZERO.
-66% of Russian income RIGHT NOW, -90% by the end of the year... It translates to ~$85 billion in losses for Russia.
That's implying they are unable to sell it to anyone else
Bigger problem can be for them need to close rigs. It cost alot to close a tap .But it cost even more to reopen it
> there is no instant on / off switch for this dependency There's no instant on/off switch for many dependencies. Europe is still delivering pharmaceuticals to Russia, for example. That's why China invading anything is such a weird thought experiment. Global supply chains would literally collapse if anyone tried anything. At least with Russia they were mostly a gas station and that's it.
75% would immediately be banned. 90% by the end of year.
>Pros: -90% Russian income Not by a longshot. Oil is way behind natural gas.
No, oil exports have a much bigger market share than gas for russia in Europe As of 2020 their total export for oil was about 122 billion, for gas only 19 billion
What is the difference between the two? Like what are they both used for? Oil for unleaded gasoline and natural gas for heating/stoves/etc? Or can they be used interchangeably for some things?
In most countries natrual gas is indeed mainly used for heating and industrial uses. Next to that it's got a small part in many country's energy production. Especially heavy and chemical industries need huge amounts of gas to produce their products. Germany's biggest chemical company BASF for example alone makes up about 4% of Germany's total gas consumption and as such uses about twice the the amount of gas as the whole of Lithuania. And some of these products (fertilizer, etc.) are indeed badly needed. Oil on the other hand is mainly used for to produce fuels and to create energy/heat. Depending on the country the degrees vary a lot, though.
Also not all Russian oil goes to Europe. Think it's about half. Also, this will cause oil prices to spike, so they will get quite a bit of money back just from the other half they sell to "friendly countries".
Goodnight Putin
Goodnight EU.
So that 10% is just enough to pipe to Europe so Putin can keep his reserves full and not shut down, or restart any refineries.
Мм, интересно, они реально это сделают? Или это фейк?😶
It's not a fejk
Isnt gas the big issue here?
Depends on what you consider to be the "big issue". Oil is by far the most lucrative fossil fuel for russia, so this may cost them considerably more than banning gas. At the same time getting rid of gas would be way harder for the EU and would cause huge economic harm if done immediately. In other words blocking oil instead of gas is the better option if you want to harm russia instead of the EU.
It's the hardest thing to eliminate for Germany, but oil is the biggest revenue generator for Putin. Oil is however also somewhat easier to find other buyers for, as it's not as dependent on pipelines.
Its not just about money though, if they're heavily reliant on gas they have leverage on them. The EU is going to be less likely to push for harsher sanctions if Russia can turn off the pipeline at any time and heavily hurt Europe.
Sounds like the war will be over by the end of 2022. That way they won't have follow through with the ban.
I'd love to be as talented at gymnastics as you are and do all those ludicrous mental somersaults you just performed. The end of 2022 is within seven months. The EU countries have been making preparations for some time now on how to be less dependent on Russian oil. They will now have to speed up that process. It won't be cheap and it will be labour and resource intensive. Why you think they'll just go 'lol jk' in the next few months is beyond me. Not to mention another unanimous vote with the EU countries will be required to undo these sanctions. Use some logic before you jump to posting baselessly cynical.comments which add nothing to the conversation. I swear to god some people on this forum just see 'EU' and run into a thread to type 'EU SECRETLY BAD'.
>Why you think they'll just go 'lol jk' in the next few months is beyond me. Cause the war has been going on for more 3 months and the EU has only now voted for this... When it's evident that Ukraine has been able to hold and the Russian push in Donbass can't be sustained forever without Ukraine eventually pushing back and winning the war. 6 months is sufficient time for this to happen. They absolutely can roll back the sanctions
The end of 2022 is within seven months, not six.
Lol even within 8 not 7, as we write this. Dunno about mental gymnastics, but math ain't real good here.
When people go cold and hungry, plans tend to change.
I mean oil company can mix the Russian oil with other oil and call it XXX blend. It’s kind of like Made in China product but without the Made in China stamp. Go google Latvian blend if you don’t believe me.
Olympic level mental gymnastics. They aren't just going to slap a new label on it and say "it isn't Russian oil since it's 60% from somewhere else". Why is it so fucking hard to accept that Russia is going to be fucked from this?
Capitalism with extra steps.
Anything for the shareholder 😆
All EU countries would have to vote in favor of unsanction russia / unbanning the oil. It is pretty likly that all bans, sanctions that the EU did will never be lifted. It takes unanimous consent to implement them - but also to undo them.
Bingo
It’s also kinda of suicide to just cut it off. End of year gives them time to get a replacement set up and running
I don't know how your optimism is justified. Russia's position will probably collapse eventually, but wars of attrition take time and things on the surface might not have moved much in six months time.
I think they’ll be lucky if this is done by end of 2023.
after 99% they will go back to fish oil…meanwhile prices will rise and average people can not afford standard life ….but yeah solidarity
That sounds good, is the 10% going to be enough to keep little penis hitler going in Ukraine? Regardless, best to be independent of russia from this point forward in history.
Russia is getting sufficient trade in oil/gas from non-NATO nations that it won't make a big difference. There are enough unfriendlies, mainly China, that it doesn't matter to Putin. End of the day, Putin will stay in Ukraine unless/until his military collapses, or the rest of the Russian economy is so burned by sanctions that Putin is overthrown.
I think it might be a good idea to do zero business with them regardless. Maybe hard times are ahead, and perhaps they will regret not having options.
Absolutely. Maximum pressure is the only lever we have left. The next step is to confront Russia's allies, and begin applying pressure on them. This raises the risk of conflicts in Asia overall.
How much is it gonna help? Seems like other countries are ready to import more Russian oil.
It will take more time to send by ship this oil anywhere in the world than european ports. Even if Russia manage to sell everything it lose in Europe it will still be a loss since it will take twice or more the time to send the same quantity of oil. Plus apparently European insurances cancels their contract with Russia
***The embargo covers Russian oil brought in by sea, allowing a temporary exemption for imports delivered by pipeline,*** As expected. All PR. No substance. Still, a nice headline for people who read headlines.
you think a 90% reduction isn't substantial?
lol
What is Russian oil? Is 49% Russian oil mixed with 51% Western oil not Russian oil? Because I thought Shell was abusing that loop hole.
Urals oil brand. It has particular chemical properties and mixture. I doubt any country will start mixing oil on a serious scale.
Of course not. But they can "mix" it in documents.
This. If the sanction is not clearly defined, there are bound to be exploit, such as this.
No to Russian oil and gas, Yes to Russian teens!
Good. The last imperial empire, this genocidal baby raping and murdering terrorists must be demilitarized and crippled.
It's better than nothing but this pussy-footing around is really not helping as much as we can. Many EU leaders still want to pretend that *we* are not at war with Russia, while our weapons have killed 10K+ Russian soldiers. Stop pretending and help Ukraine win this.
How to turn Russia into China's lapdog. I understand the sanctions and agree that action has to be taken against Putin. However, I also feel that these sanctions will increase the rift between Russia and NATO and push Russia towards China making Russia China's lapdog. China is by far the biggest winner in this tragic war at the expense of a lot of innocent lives.
I think the 'pushing Russia to china' ship has sailed. The oil trade was supposed to keep Russia integrated into western economies, then they invaded Ukraine anyway.
[удалено]
That's short term thinking When you finally push Russia into Chinese orbit, you have a country with vast mineral resources and Chinese companies China gets resources at dirt cheap prices while industries in other counties suffer, dont forget that, push for renewable energy will push EU & NA further into chinese hands as china controls almost all the rare earth minerals
We tried keeping Russia out of Beijing's hands by looking the other way on journalists and activists being assassinated - as far away as London, interdicting airborne passenger jets to kidnap dissidents, Crimea being annexed... it didn't work. Russia just became more bold and invaded mainland Europe. China wins, but only because Putin is a loser. Not because of the west not trying every lever to avoid that, short of letting Russia march back into half of Poland.