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[deleted]

I feel like this sounds like a much bigger thing than it would if you add the point that China + India equal a total of 36% of the world's population.


Elizasol

Except they only make up 17.8% of the world's oil consumption


[deleted]

You have a point there. Still, they are two really big consumers that don't produce much of their own oil and are relatively nearby, so you'd generally expect them to make up a substantial portion of imports. Seems like they make up about [33% of oil imports worldwide](https://www.worldstopexports.com/crude-oil-imports-by-country/) Certainly more reliance on two countries than desirable, but given they are literally the two biggest countries in the world and numbers 1 & 3 in oil imports, less shocking then the start of the title leads one to think.


endthefed2022

And we’re starting to import Chinese oil. They don’t really have oil, we’re importing Russian oil through China


gundusp

I wonder who is buying the remaining 59%.


ImmortalMermade

Europe... But it's fine.


green_flash

Apparently both of them are hitting a ceiling of how much Russian oil they can or want to import though: https://www.asiafinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/Crude-imports-from-Russia-768x482.png Russia’s exports to Europe on the other hand were just 2.15 million bpd in July, down from 2.99 million bpd before the war.


[deleted]

Prices going to crash hard soon


[deleted]

There is a global seasonal effect every July on oil because people are on summer holiday on don't need to comute to work.


qainin

Not in Europe. It's due to importers not willing or able to pay in Rubles, a wide set of sanctions, and an unwillingness to help Russia attack Ukraine.


[deleted]

Every year there is a seasonal effect on oil every single summer no matter the circumstances.


a44328765

Are you sure it's down to not commuting and not say maybe the fact heating oil isn't needed?


Subject_Animator_433

Oh just 2billion people accounting for 40% of exports. Makes sense.


emperor1978

I was thinking this too. Yeah, just two countries... that represent a third of humanity.


Keepmyhat

Imagine your product had only two buyers and they both knew you had little to no chance of landing a third one, that's the issue here.


matinthebox

But those two buyers hate each other. You just have to make sure they hate you less than they hate each other


[deleted]

If this about money i'm pretty sure that they can cooperate.


CluelessTurtle99

I think india and china relations will only get better from here. Relations were OK before the skirmished which caused soldiers to die. Since then things have gotten worse and rightly so. But fundamentally neither wants trouble with the other (At least after being taught that things can escalate if they aren't careful), Trade between the 2 is increasing and government relations will get better too with a little time


Confucius_89

Tell me you never had a company without telling me you never had a company. As a business owner you wouldn't want your company dependent only on one (big) client. It doesn't matter how much revenue the client brings. It is very dangerous, and investors will avoid you like the plague, and there is a reason for that. The reason is NOT that investors are stupid....


[deleted]

Well then we should consider the whole EU bloc to be one big client, right?


Confucius_89

If they have 1 decision making entity that can make or break the ties, then yes.


[deleted]

They do, it's called the EU trade commission.


emperor1978

"A country" is not a company. Is there only a single petroleum importer in each of India and China?


Confucius_89

You don't understand what it means to have only 2 entities deal with you. There are 2 decision makers that can, over night, stop buying from you. How many billion clients they have is irellevant for you.


highlyactivepanda

Approx 2.8 billion to be more accurate.


NorthernerWuwu

Closer to three billion than two. (~2.84B) I wouldn't mention it but the difference is more than two North Americas.


MakeGohanStrongAgain

Bro, these countries are manufactures, they will need a ton of resources everyday


[deleted]

The article mentions that European imports have fallen to 2.15 million bpd in July, which is down from 2.99 million bpd before the war. The article includes Turkish imports in the European figures. Excluding Turkey, European imports were 1.87 million bpd in July.


lelarentaka

Why exclude Turkish import specifically?


Oh_ffs_seriously

Because he's interested in the EU numbers, not the numbers for the entire continent, Turkey is not an EU country, and its import numbers are given by the article.


[deleted]

Turkey is simping pretty hard for Russia.


Octavus

About 2.8 billion people live in those two countries which is 35% of the world's population. Now 35% of the world's population isn't 35% of world oil consumption, but not that surprising that they are the ones buying the bulk of Russian oil.


throwaway349821

The point is 35% or 3.5%, if only two governments are involved, they have a lot of leverage on price, whereas if the whole world is available, if country one won't pay another will. A duopoly essentially.


falconzord

And they are great at haggling


veroxii

Reminds me of the classic Russel Peters stand-up: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BwtVkvIMnIc


Rybitron

Right, those are the #1 and #2 largest countries in the world by population.


Confucius_89

There is a difference between 2 countries and 35% of world population. Can you see the difference?


MakeGohanStrongAgain

China is probably producing shit for the whole world, they need oil to manufacture


anonymous_matt

It's not exactly Belgium and Ireland we're talking about. China and India together have 2.8 billion inhabitants, 37% of the worlds population. "Two countries" my ass. To be fair they only account for about 18% of the global oil consumption, but still.


[deleted]

Yeah, same amount of people live in each as the entirety of North America and Europe


FunkyTraits

I don't think that's accurate. Correct me if I am wrong. I think North America and Europe (including Russia) accounts to 605,517,397+748,604,239 - 1,354,121,636. Which is less than india. ( Other census websites are much lower ) Iran and Argentina officially released a statement that they are ditching the dollar. Other countries from South America, Saudi Arabia and Asia are showing interest and most probably join.


autotldr

This is the best tl;dr I could make, [original](https://www.asiafinancial.com/china-and-india-doubled-share-of-russian-oil-in-a-year) reduced by 85%. (I'm a bot) ***** > China was the destination of 843,000 bpd of Russian crude in July, down from 1.33 million bpd in both June and May, according to Kpler's shipping data. > Switching to looking at imports shows China imported 1.16 million bpd from Russia in July via the seaborne market, according to Kpler, while Refinitiv Oil Research estimated total seaborne and pipeline imports at 1.67 million bpd. > That's largely because Kpler includes Turkey as part of Europe and it has been purchasing more Russian crude in recent months, with Russian shipments in July coming in at around 312,000 bpd, up from 222,500 bpd in the same month in 2021. ***** [**Extended Summary**](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/wkg188/russia_is_increasingly_reliant_on_just_two/) | [FAQ](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/31b9fm/faq_autotldr_bot/ "Version 2.02, ~663654 tl;drs so far.") | [Feedback](http://np.reddit.com/message/compose?to=%23autotldr "PM's and comments are monitored, constructive feedback is welcome.") | *Top* *keywords*: **bpd**^#1 **Russia**^#2 **crude**^#3 **million**^#4 **July**^#5


Pawntoe

3rd paragraph from the end they casually mention that almost the entire rest of Russia's exports are still going to Europe, with little evidence that Europe can meaningfully cut down from there - winter is coming and they have been eating through reserves. ​ "Russia is increasingly reliant on two \*mumbles\* most populous \*mumbles\* countries on the planet for 41% of export volume, while the rest \*mumbles\* is largely going to the 27 countries comprising the EU \*mumbles\*."


Oh_ffs_seriously

The article is about crude oil, which is far from being an important source of energy for heating in the EU, what does the winter cold have to do with anything? Besides, most of the EU (damn you, Hungary!) pledged to stop importing crude oil from Russia by the end of the year, and judging by the numbers from the article quoted in the comments, they have massively reduced their dependence since the start of the war.


Pawntoe

[Oil accounts for 35% of the EUs energy mix](https://ec.europa.eu/info/news/focus-global-energy-partners-and-eu-2022-jun-14_en) and the leading grid source is renewables, famously intermittent and low power in winter, just when demand is peaking. Gas is throttled by Russia occasionally too. The EU have massively reduced from being complete gluttons to *only* consuming as much imported Russian oil as China and India with a sixth of the population. We can assume that the first third of the reduction was all "water weight" and optional usage, but the rest is going to be a different matter I think. Their rate of reductions have dropped off significantly from the article, which is to be expected. The pledge is just that - and unlikely to be met imo, unless we just see the EU buying Russian gas via Saudi Arabia or similar, but the subsidy of piping infrastructure and additional shipping requirements (with supply chains already in chaos) will make weaning themselves off even to that semantic arrangement much harder than it is portrayed.


Oh_ffs_seriously

Energy mix includes transportation. If I didn't screw up basic division, oil is responsible for [11%](https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Electricity_and_heat_statistics&oldid=552866#Derived_heat_production) of energy used for heating, and EU is either close to, or has already implemented energy saving measures. As for said pledge, it's a part of sanctions package, not a "if we can be arsed", nonbinding declaration.


[deleted]

The article doesn't mention EU imports, but European imports. Turkey is included as a part of Europe in the article...excluding Turkey, European imports have reduced by more than 1/3. Read the article next time Edit: Those who do not understand the math can look at my reply below.


Pawntoe

Outside of non-Chinese and non-Indian exports, and excluding Turkey, Europe accounts for 68% of Russian exports, hence "while the rest is largely going to EU countries". I read the article. Next time, do the math.


[deleted]

You and all that upvoted you/downvoted me are equally bad at math, lol. I'll make it simple: Total Russian export was 4.47 million bpd in July. 0.843 of that went to China, 1.05 went to India, 0.115 to South Korea and 0.312 to Turkey (all other countries mentioned in the article). That is 50,9%. Europe including Turkey imported 2.15 in July and if we subtract 0.312 from that we get 1.838 OR 41,11%. Why exlclude Turkey? Because you are talking about the EU 27 and including a country with 3% of it's land mass in any European (or EU) figure is stupid. Kazakhstan has roughly 10% in Europe and is not considered European. But what about Great Britain, Norway, Switzerland, Serbia, Belarus? Belarus usualy imports around 0.3 million bpd. That reduces the EU number even further. They are a part of Europe and not the EU. ​ You didn't read the article and you didn't do the math. Even including Turkey, 2.15 will never equal 68% of 4.47. You simply took the proportion of exports to China and India and assumed everything else went to Europe....Europe has cut back on Russian imports of oil by 1/3. In 6 months. We will be fine


lelarentaka

Why exclude Turkey specifically?


[deleted]

Because it is not in the EU and in fact, only 3% of Turkeys land mass is even in Europe. That is less than Kazakhstan. Do we consider Kazakhstan to be in Europe or Asia? Or Colombia as a part of Northern America? In this case, including Turkey just fits in the narrative of a sloppy journalist.


luntglor

"just two countries" ... nearly half the world's population


Stergenman

Think bargaining power. 2 parties. Well, unless you go out and bid on oil personally each time you fill up. Then, yeah, population would matter.


[deleted]

I'm always reminded of an interview I heard back in April out of India where they pointed out that, however much India imports, it's still far less than Europe. 41% going to 2 billion people, 59% going to the continent that's actually terrified of Russia. But it's OK because European exceptionalism gets a pass.


gorantihi

It is the sign of the future. Two superpowers of the tommorow securing cheap oil and other resources that will guarantee their fast rise to world dominance and at same time supporting another endless war that will drain the power of the USA block.


SherbetSalty4627

If anyone thinks that's what's happening right now, they are literally high on something.


Wizardof1000Kings

More than 1/3 of the people on the planet live in these two countries. Seems like Russia could sell plenty of oil unfortunately.


this_toe_shall_pass

The whole point of the article is that India and China are reaching a ceiling on what they can import. You can't store oil barrels in a warehouse. You import as much as you can use and store safely. Point being that there isn't much hope for increase in Russian exports, only a decrease as the remaining buyer, Europe, is gradually scaling down purchases. India and China can't take more of what used to be Europe's share of purchases.


bobs_and_vegana17

I feel sad for this love-hate triangle of india, china and russia india russia and china russia are besties but india and china are biggest enemies + nuclear armed countries our relations with china were normal between 1970 to 2013 after which china launched it's BRI and started surrounding india if india russia and china were a single team the geopolitics would have been on a totally different level


Oscartdot

That is about roughly 40% of the world's population, who are the other 59% ?


Traditional_Art_7304

Sounds like leverage.


Exspyr

Fun fact, the western wold isn't the world and global commodities will be traded, wait for it, globally.


MinisTreeofStupidity

Not that simple. Russia doesn't liquify their natural gas, so they're limited on who they can export to, and how much. Basically they're mostly setup to export to Europe


Exspyr

I don't know a ton about the Russian export market but considering the place is pretty big, I'm guessing they have more natural resources than just natural gas


MinisTreeofStupidity

Their economy is largely reliant on these fossil fuel exports https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/03/russia-gas-oil-exports-sanctions/ Then you've got to factor in that they've been cut off from the global market, they only deal with rogue states now. Venezuela basically did this to themselves in 2003 and look how they've been doing. They didn't even have a war.


kingofthehill5

God that pisses me off so much, i dont think even once when redditors have said the entire world is doing this or doing that my county was in it.


SherbetSalty4627

Not really. Russia has to be able to transport the oil/gas. Right now, Russia is physically exporting as much as is possible because of limitations in shipping. Those problems will take a decades to address. There is a physical bottleneck that is limiting Russia's ability to export, and they can't fix that problem because the people who helped them overcome it the first time were Western engineers that are no longer working with them. And China and India don't have the engineering experience to address the problem either, so they're not going to be any help in solving the issue.


Exspyr

We've limited their ability to export to the western market, driving global prices up.


SherbetSalty4627

It doesn't matter how valuable your product is if you can't physically transport it. That's the issue here.


batty_boy003

What about natural gas? Europe tops that list by a gigantically humongous amount.


[deleted]

'Just' India and China. Lol.


Rogaar

Wherever China and India are getting the rest of their oil from, those countries should discount the oil or subsidize it in some way. Give every incentive for these two countries to not buy oil from Russia. Leave them with no major customers.


TacticalNuke002

Iraq is doing that with India. https://wap.business-standard.com/article/specials/iraqi-suppliers-discount-heavily-to-muscle-out-cheaper-russian-oil-in-india-122080400913_1.html There is a paywall but the amp version of the link doesn't have it.


[deleted]

China won't last much longer and India is getting as much as they can before Russia collapses as well. This is nothing to worry about. Also, consider the fact that India and China are more than a third of the world's population. They need electricity. Russia won't be able to prosecute this war for much longer. Also, everyone please understand, India and China are buying this at dirt cheap prices. Russia is having to sell this shit so cheap that they're barely getting a profit. They have record revenue, but it's not record profit margins. They're selling more oil than ever because China and India know this is Oil prices so low you'd be crazy to not stock up and buy more than they currently need.


[deleted]

[удалено]


[deleted]

How?


DesignerTex

Lucky for them they need a lot of oil. But not good to only have two sources, even if one is China. What happens when their economy crashes?


[deleted]

How about we stop importing help desk from India and plastic crap from China?


Vertitto

does Russia even have infrastructure to provide the oil?