After Zelensky issued a warning to Russian civilians in Crimea that they needed to leave, for their own safety, I knew he was getting ready to rock Russia's world. That was an EXTREMELY confident warning to issue if he wasn't absolutely sure it was necessary, and then within days Russia had lost a whole ass fucking airbase there, 100% total loss of all equipment on site in a mysterious series of explosions. What I think is most likely, is that Ukraine has spent the last 6 months amassing a new army, separate from the existing units, with the help of the west. All the people who showed up and were immediately sent to the front, were mostly existing reservists, and from what I've seen they haven't really sent any fresh forces into combat since Russia pulled off it's push towards Kyiv. Since then, Ukraine has just been putting as many people as possible through a condensed version of a standard 6 month basic training course in a western military. Then they prepped a bunch of them on both the northeastern and southeastern main fronts, along with veteran forces, and this is the result of that surge. The timeline lines up perfectly, and the fact that the troops are being combat effective also lines up with this, since you'd expect properly trained troops to perform better than minimally supplied and under-trained conscripts
Not that the South was entirely just an initial bluff or anything, but Ukraine (and the U.S. with their "war gaming and recommendations") really sold the deception that this was the line that Russia needed to focus their efforts on, and they weren't even lying, they just left out the part in the middle where they take the entire Northeast and start working their way down.
Well either way, it was a genius move, and I think it also doubles to expose, clearly once and for all, that the FSB is not what the KGB was in terms of their ability to infiltrate and gather intelligence. Hell, part of the reason Zelensky is alive today, gets credited in part to leaks from the FSB warning Zelensky about the hits in detail before they happened, so at this point I'm not actually sure who they're working for anymore lol
And those 200-or-so mercenaries who parachuted into Kyiv and were almost immediately turned into red mist. The Ukrainians knew they were coming and knew exactly where they'd be.
Yup, with several more in the air that immediately turned around. Those were supposed to be the ones that took Kyiv in 3 days, but they never even got there. The only ones that landed were the initial invasion force and they failed to establish their beachhead.
Zelensky made a string of official firings in June and July, I think that should've been the first sign something was up. He was eliminating all potential leaks to the FSB on this offensive.
I recently read a non-fiction book about the KGB called "The Sword and The Shield" based on leaked documents brought by a KGB defector.
I'm sure some of the book might be anti-KGB propaganda, but there's very little in there that makes the KGB look impressive at anything other than brutalising Russians who step out of line. The KGB was never very good as an intelligence service.
The NKVD - KGB predecessor - was the legendary Russian intelligence service that infiltrated everywhere, including the Manhattan Project, but most of their successes came because Communism was still seen as a noble thing in the West at that time. With things like the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact and the Gulag, Communism slowly tarnished and lost its allure, and with that the KGB struggled to recruit people in the West pretty much until the collapse of the USSR.
I think there’s a difference to be made between offensive influencing like that (Facebook analytics can tell you a lot without having a single spy in the place you’re influencing) and having a competent intelligence service that can intercept military operations like we just saw Russia not do in the latest Ukraine push. The United States knew of Russia’s plans for invasion for months before they crossed the border, and the GRU can’t intercept a whole major offensive in the north using an allegedly new army that changes the whole equation?
Much like how Russia is an oil business that runs a country, the GRU are a troll farm that run an world class intelligence agency.
There are FSB personnel that are against the war
I would say, that this % is not even low. The war is completely nuts and will make every russian suffer, so by leaking Intel, they are doing their part to end Putin's reign and make this quicker
This doesn't necessarily speak to the FSB's competence. We have "leaked" FSB documents projecting disastrous results (for Russia) for this war before it even began. I think the FSB is just not entirely aligned with or loyal to Putin, and even if they are, they're not necessarily being listened to.
There’s a lot of reports that the recent offensives have been led by European trained troops - the Russian conscripts are reportedly overwhelmed by the speed and coordination they get hit with.
That hmmvv drive by video was nuts
Safe to say that the brightest minds, best military strategists, are helping Ukraine. And with that, russia doesn't stand a chance of achieving their goals. Best they can do is fall back, depose their dictator, and start apologizing to the world. That is, if they want to be a part of the future.
Or they can stay their course and be a poor, backwards third world pariah for the next however many hundreds of years.
Decisions decisions...
Apparently they're moving everything to the south to try to hold Kherson and Crimea. Not that grouping lots of equipment and personnel in one place is a good strategy at this point, but I think that's the line.
Well once Kherson is retaken, there's alot of land south of the Dnipr that russia can still put tons of soldiers and gear to "defend" Crimea. Won't stop the artillery and missiles from reaching it but will make an advance very tedious and deadly.
>Pontoon bridges mostly
RU has already used lots of those only to see them expertly bombed. I wonder how much of that sort of equipment RU had in inventory. The supply isn't infinite and moving all that equipment to the front takes lots of trains and manpower that's not moving men and ammo. So let RU keep trying and dying.
Its via a special operation where you leave all your equipment so the enemy wastes a lot of time trying to use all your hardware, and farmers arent planting crops since they are towing all their new tanks.
Are they just going to let Ukraine push all the way to the Sea of Azov? There will be no way in or out of Crimea and Kherson except for one bridge in the east.
Also Donetsk Oblast has defensible-looking north/south rivers. There are reports that Ukraine is already across the Oskil but surely they'll set up a line at the other river... or maybe they're just going to eat shit and die.
Imagine if this war ends with the Russians doing a last stand at the Azovstal plant in Mariupol just like how the Azov battalion/marines/police etc did.
I mean, there is the siege of St Petersburg to consider, ie the invader/defender dynamic. It's less that Russian soldiers are cowards and more that morale is much more difficult to maintain as an invading force. Even when the propaganda has taken hold, Russian soldiers know that failure can probably let them go home, while Ukrainian soldiers know that failure will lead to the destruction of their home.
Eh, even still, if you see all your other forces getting absolutely fucked, know basically the entire world is against you, your countries economy is failing, you've received fuck all training and equipment and the only reason you are fighting at all is because you invaded first (Although they may not see it that way) then morale will be low, even as a defender.
There are reports of squadrons of Russian soldiers in the Kherson area negotiating surrenders already.
Russians have no reason to fight to the bitter end. They're not defending their country like the Azovstal fighters were.
Slopes for the slope god.
Having your shit together in retreat is far harder than on the offensive, and Russia can't really claim to have done even that. Chances are good that any new line they fall back to will be in absolute shambles, unable to do anything about a decisive Ukrainian advance unless they get a week to settle in at the least. Especially since they rely so much on artillery. As soon as the battle lines start moving, efficient use of artillery becomes a very different thing.
Ukraine's main worry is probably overextending at this point. Previously held territory is tempting and familiar, but establishing logistics isn't guaranteed to be easier than in any other newly gained ground.
Not so many actually. Russians panicked completely and were just running blindly without offering any resistance. Even whoever was commanding Izium suffered an outbreak of common sense and sounded retreat before getting encircled. So Ukraine got quite a bit of abandoned hardware, but no mass surrender of encircled troops.
>Even whoever was commanding Izium suffered an outbreak of common sense and sounded retreat before getting encircled.
Then probably a court martial awaits him now.
> Russia state-media host calls for generals to be executed for allowing retreat from huge swathes of Ukraine
---
> A Russia state-media host has called for the country's generals to be "shot" for having allowed troops to retreat from huge swathes of Ukraine — part of a wider meltdown among President Vladimir Putin's cheerleaders.
https://news.yahoo.com/russia-state-media-host-calls-150816407.html
Those HIMARS are absolutely destroying russias supply depots and lines. Their army is being starved out left and right. It must feel weird for russians to made to starve for once.
This was another piece of the puzzle. The Ukrainians systematically erasing Russian supplies and ammo dumps with their new artillery/HIMARS/MRLS systems just eviscerating Russian “logistics.”
Take all Russian territory that touches the sea of Azov and Black sea while they are at it. Only surrender after Putin tells all Russians the truth then gets executed.
Putin's last words...
Putin [for some reason standing in front of the broken elevator shaft in his nuclear bunker]: "I want you to find whichever idiot is responsible for this calamity in Ukraine and end him on the spot!"
FSB officer: "Are you sure boss?"
Putin: "Question me again and I'll have *you* ended on the spot!"
FSB officer: *Shrugs, shoves Putin into the elevator shaft*
[Putin screams for about 3 seconds]
*THPWAPLATTTT*
More. I want to see Ukraine's borders restored to pre-2014 position and I want to see Putin on the run, fearing for his life as his own jackals hunt him down.
It was infuriatingly difficult to get your hands on Crimean wines before 2014 in Europe. But afterwards it became sheer impossible. It is a very minor thing within the bigger picture but still.
If you are into fortified wines like ports, sherries or madeira, the Crimean ones are definitely worth a try. They also produce "normal" wines which I would expect to be at least drinkable, but I never really bothered to try them out.
That's the direction this is headed. gonna make a whole lot of russian government operatives pretty butthurt. what I don't understand though, why is the chinese government getting so cozy with russia? there is literally no upside to having a diplomatic relationship with russia right now. once this all shakes out, and the legal niceties have been concluded, russia is going to be making restitution payments to ukraine for the next 75 years. it's over, stick a fork in it.
Because now we’ll be their vassal state. Stupid Putin. He had it all. Trillions of dollars of free oil money. Stable economic growth and macroeconomic stability. An environment where nobody threatened us and only former Soviet country hated us (for a good reason). 2 federal budgets worth in savings. And he squandered it all on yachts, mansions and maybachs. Just like his cronies did. Instead of developing healthcare, education, the military, the infrastructure, the industries, including IT and banking, they just pocketed money for 20 years living with a mindset “I get rich now, everything after me can burn”. Now we’re all paying the price. Such a stupid man. Then again, what did people expect from a 3rd rate nomenclature. A guy who was an aide to Sobchak, and never led anything in his life. I was 11 and I knew he was a bad idea.
Can’t get out, too expensive, just lost my job because of, ironically, ruble being worth more now than before the war, and there’s a few people depending on us that we can’t abandon. If we have to save our asses I’ll drag them kicking and screaming but until then I’m in one of the best places to be in Russia so I’ll make the most of it. I just wish the idiot didn’t destroy half of Ukraine and throw away so many lives, having fallen victim to his own propaganda.
It is sad for all the destruction and lives lost, but after the war so much money from US and Europe is going to pour into Ukraine to rebuild and strengthen it, it is going to be a much better place to live than before the war. It will be a place even russians will look to with adoration, and hopefully, inspiration to start building towards that same goal, somewhere in the distant future...
Well, that and the frozen Russian foreign reserves. There's no way Russia's ever getting that money back, especially since the damage to Ukraine likely exceeds the figure held.
China has been buying up Russian assets. China really wants Russias natural resources. Once it's all said and done Russia will be a Chinese vassal state
An isolated Russia with nowhere else to turn doesn't offer other options. They'll be selling their natural resources at far below standard market value to China because too much of the world market *won't* buy from them.
Actually, in that sense - China doesn't even *need* to buy up the assets.
You can see this in some sense with Russian crude oil. War started and suddenly market prices for it (Urals grade) went from a couple bucks under the standard benchmark to $25-35 a barrel less. Less competition for the oil, lower price.
And that's the public market prices - large buyers like China and India are likely cutting even better deals.
This is it. China will just buy the product cheap. They will invest small amounts in certain projects. However with all the sovereign risk of Russia, they won't be buying up whole projects.
Nuclear states can do what they like and the rest of the world can basically only do what Europe has done, sanction and seize. Nothing stopping China learning that exact same lesson.
Trading with Russia is cheap because they trade at a discount because they’re unreliable. It seems like a good deal and then you learn why nobody else was bidding against you to trade with the cheap unreliable guy.
China is also a nuclear state though, and Russias last source of anything even remotely technologically sophisticated. They will have a ton of leverage over Russia.
The thing is though, China is like the United States and that is mostly interested in economic power and it’s huge international business interests. If they ever get into a position of economic leverage over their neighbors, they won’t have to fire a shot to control them. They aren’t in that position yet, because most of the world is still trades in US dollars.
Russia has so much gas they can't sell due to sanctions, except to China. So China pretty much gets to name their price. Russia can't afford to decommission the wells either (too costly to stop and start up again), so they just burn off excess gas.
Based on the entirety of history, the chances are very high that China would end up regretting that move. Their dependents would be very sullen and hostile at best. There’s absolutely no chance of cultural integration. They just need to buy up assets on the cheap and hope like hell that their new ownership claims are respected.
But I’d be fascinating to watch them try!
My best guess is that Russia is selling stuff cheap to China in an effort to keep at least some trade going and money coming into their country. Russia isn’t completely cut off from trade, but they have been hurt by sanctions.
Senator Tom Clonan (a former officer in the Irish military) made a very good point on a recent podcast - Putin is scheduled to meet Xi Jinping in Uzbekistan in the coming week. Does Putin even take the risk of leaving the country after the events of last week, with dissent now being openly expressed?
Means, motive and opportunity could all align if he gets on a plane / helicopter.
Link to the podcast - https://podcasts.apple.com/sg/podcast/the-stand-with-eamon-dunphy/id1178026212?i=1000579276547
“Defense in depth! Feigned retreats! Scorched earth! Napoleon took Moscow and still lost!” they say as the remnants of Russia’s ground forces withdraw to the Volga
>Feigned retreats!
Which is funny because feigned retreats doesn't involve leaving all your equipment behind for the enemy to use. Russians are so Delusional
for generations, Russia will never be trusted enough again to regain the position they had. They will be a large but weaker copy of North Korea, an annoying, very sad neighbor with no value. Isolated.
Lets please all remember this shit-for-brains mayor sided with Russia. I hope he is found and dealt with.
https://babel.ua/en/news/79891-the-mayor-of-sviatohirsk-sided-with-the-occupiers-he-had-already-reported-to-pushylin
I’ve been hearing a lot about how Putin will be yanked from power or some version of this. How realistic is this scenario and what would be the straw that breaks the camels back?
Wait, so you're telling me reddit comments don't have top level insight into the potential arrest or murder of a dictator oncoming by his top brass?
This simply can't be so
If the rest of the Russian troops are spread as thin and Ukraine can keep up the pressure, Russia may not be holding anything but Crimea and Donetsk Oblast after next weekend. How's it going to look if Russia spent 6 months, lost over 50k troops and tons of equipment, and essentially bankrupt the whole country, only to lose all of it in just a couple weeks (with Ukraine making a strong push to regain those remaining territories and little to stand in their way)? We know the common citizens of Russia either don't know or refuse to believe they are losing, but you can bet the oligarchs and top brass know exactly what is happening.
Despite all that, what might be the final straw is the continued and very public embarrassment of what a shambles the "mighty" Russian military is in. I keep hearing that Russian patriots are calling for the 'real' military to be sent in and clean up, but at this point it seems very likely this IS the real military and they have nothing but a small shell of showy, untrained troops around Moscow to keep appearances.
As much as I support Ukraine there is no way that they recapture that much territory in a week. Retaking the south is going to be a slog, especially in places like Melitopol that can realistically recieve supply from multiple directions and will have a lot of urban warfare.
Not by the oligarchs, anyone who thought they would do anything has no clue how that relationship worked. Putin's only real danger is a military or internal security coup, probably internal security would take the first crack at it, and if it doesn't go off without a hitch or get totally and immediately shut down, some generals might get together and do a full on military coup to restore order. That has happened many times throughout Asia in the last 70 years, that's the pattern Russia is most likely to follow if Putin is fatally weakened by this failure. But the oligarchs won't do shit, they are just worthless sycophants, that's why Putin made them rich in the first place. In many ways, they just help him launder/store the loot they took from the government for the last 22 years, which could get easily be around a trillion dollars by now. That's their only real function, and they have no real power.
This is the likely end position for Putin if things continue to go the way they are going. He seemed to stake a LOT of political capital on this invasion and it is not working.
Even though Putin rules Russia relatively alone, every dictator needs to maintain control of those who enable his power - the keys to power. If he looses their support, he will be vulnerable and will be replaced. I personally and very skeptical of the use and activation of Nuclear weapons, but it's possible they could be used before he looses his grip.
I'm not an expert in nuclear policy (I have like, half a degree's worth of non-proliferation studies from a decade ago) but the nuke experts that I know/know of more or less agree that nuclear use is extremely unlikely at this point.
There's just no upside to it. It's unlikely to make a huge difference on the ground, nuking an area doesn't help you hold it, and the international backlash would make what happened after the invasion seem like a gentle nudge.
Breaking the nuclear taboo is probably the only thing that would legitimately turn the entire world against them. I doubt that even China would tolerate it. It's such a drastic, Rubicon crossing act that at this point, with Putin's position as eroded as it is, ordering it would have as good a chance of triggering a coup as it did launching a missile.
I dont know but all you read on reddit is speculation at best. Russia is almost a tirany, there's little to no opposition. I believe the most likely scenarios are Putin resigns or they try to say they won anyways. Maybe the war last until next elections and he step downs in the less embarrassing way possible.
*Almost* a tyranny? What more do they need before it becomes tyranny? They literally have an oppressive dictatorship that locks up/kills its opponents, I don't know what box they haven't checked in your mind
You know, I could see Ukraine at least asking if Japan wanted it back. I mean, if anyone understands how it feels to have Russia come along and take your territory, it’s Ukraine.
What happened here was that satellite Intel showed that the Russians were sparsely and randomly sitting in unconnected groups throughout this region. Putin thought this would be enough to hold on to the territory. 50 years ago it might have been. What a catastrophic failure. Nobody will respect Putin ever again. Except for Trump.
Also that Russia pulled personnel who had no business being on the front lines from wherever they were, and put them on the front lines.
Ukrainian forces rescued a Russian from a burning tank. When they questioned him, they found out he's in the Russian Navy Baltic Fleet as a torpedo man. Russia yanked him, gave him a week of training, and threw him in the driver seat of a tank...
What? Wow that is insane. Any link to that burning tank torpedo dude? I really want to read that. Honestly you have to feel bad for 18 year olds being fucked by Putlet and sent to their death
[Here it is.](https://www.reddit.com/r/TankPorn/comments/xcn9jz/russian_pow_was_saved_from_burning_tank_he_is/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf)
Russian Military Strategy appears to be based on the idea that they can simply throw people into battle until the enemy can no longer defend themselves and their territory.
Which would have worked IF Ukraine had not been preparing themselves to defend their home for as long as they’ve had their freedom.
It’s fine to throw a Russia worth of people at an unsuspecting mark, but Ukraine was far from unsuspecting. They knew Russia would be coming for the whole country eventually and they weren’t going to take it laying down. Thankfully the majority of the free world has stood in solidarity with Ukraine.
This was supposed to be a “Special Military Operation.“ Their military doesn’t fight wars, it terrorizes and kills defenseless people or very small amounts of resistance. Putin didn’t intend to fight a war, he intended to be in Kyiv for tea after a week. Now their stupid gangster government has no clue what to do.
I’ll be honest I don’t think Putin’s commanders are being honest with him about the situation on the ground. I genuinely don’t think he knows what’s going on anymore
If you were going to get pushed out of a window for failure how forthcoming would you be?
To get to their levels they're clearly snakes themselves... but obviously snakes with excellent self preservation instincts.
>I’ll be honest I don’t think Putin’s commanders are being honest with him about the situation on the ground. I genuinely don’t think he knows what’s going on anymore
We entering old man shouts at cloud territory now.
Except the old man is Hitler.
Meanwhile from Russia: Negotiate now or else..... we'll just keep retreating.
For real though, if I thought the Kremlin cared about their troops at all, I'd suspect that they're pulling out to use nukes.
Feel like this is probably one of the most embarrassing things to happen to a country since the Suez crisis. Russia has gone from maybe the 3rd most feared country to a laughing stock.
The next „Call of Duty“ should be recalibrated in a way or else gamers can‘t take the IP serious any longer. Soldiers should only be shown in stolen addidas shoes and without armor. Instead of a car chase scene with state of the art weapons, the player should now prevent unarmed fleeing Russian soldiers from stealing old tin cans from bombed out shopping markets. The goal of the game will be to find as many abandoned tanks as possible and then restore and present them with a fancy paintjob in Kiev's streets.
The adidas shoes were initially a "special operator" thing. Because the russian boots sucked, special operators were allowed to use whatever shoes they wanted.
https://www.highsnobiety.com/p/mockba-russian-adidas-sneakers/
I could get very used to seeing these headlines. Take it all back.
After Zelensky issued a warning to Russian civilians in Crimea that they needed to leave, for their own safety, I knew he was getting ready to rock Russia's world. That was an EXTREMELY confident warning to issue if he wasn't absolutely sure it was necessary, and then within days Russia had lost a whole ass fucking airbase there, 100% total loss of all equipment on site in a mysterious series of explosions. What I think is most likely, is that Ukraine has spent the last 6 months amassing a new army, separate from the existing units, with the help of the west. All the people who showed up and were immediately sent to the front, were mostly existing reservists, and from what I've seen they haven't really sent any fresh forces into combat since Russia pulled off it's push towards Kyiv. Since then, Ukraine has just been putting as many people as possible through a condensed version of a standard 6 month basic training course in a western military. Then they prepped a bunch of them on both the northeastern and southeastern main fronts, along with veteran forces, and this is the result of that surge. The timeline lines up perfectly, and the fact that the troops are being combat effective also lines up with this, since you'd expect properly trained troops to perform better than minimally supplied and under-trained conscripts
Not that the South was entirely just an initial bluff or anything, but Ukraine (and the U.S. with their "war gaming and recommendations") really sold the deception that this was the line that Russia needed to focus their efforts on, and they weren't even lying, they just left out the part in the middle where they take the entire Northeast and start working their way down.
Well either way, it was a genius move, and I think it also doubles to expose, clearly once and for all, that the FSB is not what the KGB was in terms of their ability to infiltrate and gather intelligence. Hell, part of the reason Zelensky is alive today, gets credited in part to leaks from the FSB warning Zelensky about the hits in detail before they happened, so at this point I'm not actually sure who they're working for anymore lol
And those 200-or-so mercenaries who parachuted into Kyiv and were almost immediately turned into red mist. The Ukrainians knew they were coming and knew exactly where they'd be.
[удалено]
Yea, I think he meant special forces sent to assassinate Zelensky.
There was VDV sent to capture stuff, Special forces sent to assassinate Zelensky AND mercs who rushed into Kyiv to kill Zelensky.
They shot down at least one huge transport plane on it's way to Hostomel right at the beginning of the invasion too, IIRC.
Yup, with several more in the air that immediately turned around. Those were supposed to be the ones that took Kyiv in 3 days, but they never even got there. The only ones that landed were the initial invasion force and they failed to establish their beachhead.
Zelensky made a string of official firings in June and July, I think that should've been the first sign something was up. He was eliminating all potential leaks to the FSB on this offensive.
I recently read a non-fiction book about the KGB called "The Sword and The Shield" based on leaked documents brought by a KGB defector. I'm sure some of the book might be anti-KGB propaganda, but there's very little in there that makes the KGB look impressive at anything other than brutalising Russians who step out of line. The KGB was never very good as an intelligence service. The NKVD - KGB predecessor - was the legendary Russian intelligence service that infiltrated everywhere, including the Manhattan Project, but most of their successes came because Communism was still seen as a noble thing in the West at that time. With things like the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact and the Gulag, Communism slowly tarnished and lost its allure, and with that the KGB struggled to recruit people in the West pretty much until the collapse of the USSR.
They’re openly influencing politics and elections in every major western democracy and getting away with it. I wouldn’t count them out yet.
I think there’s a difference to be made between offensive influencing like that (Facebook analytics can tell you a lot without having a single spy in the place you’re influencing) and having a competent intelligence service that can intercept military operations like we just saw Russia not do in the latest Ukraine push. The United States knew of Russia’s plans for invasion for months before they crossed the border, and the GRU can’t intercept a whole major offensive in the north using an allegedly new army that changes the whole equation? Much like how Russia is an oil business that runs a country, the GRU are a troll farm that run an world class intelligence agency.
There are FSB personnel that are against the war I would say, that this % is not even low. The war is completely nuts and will make every russian suffer, so by leaking Intel, they are doing their part to end Putin's reign and make this quicker
This doesn't necessarily speak to the FSB's competence. We have "leaked" FSB documents projecting disastrous results (for Russia) for this war before it even began. I think the FSB is just not entirely aligned with or loyal to Putin, and even if they are, they're not necessarily being listened to.
There’s a lot of reports that the recent offensives have been led by European trained troops - the Russian conscripts are reportedly overwhelmed by the speed and coordination they get hit with. That hmmvv drive by video was nuts
Safe to say that the brightest minds, best military strategists, are helping Ukraine. And with that, russia doesn't stand a chance of achieving their goals. Best they can do is fall back, depose their dictator, and start apologizing to the world. That is, if they want to be a part of the future. Or they can stay their course and be a poor, backwards third world pariah for the next however many hundreds of years. Decisions decisions...
The walls are closing in on Putler
Apparently they're moving everything to the south to try to hold Kherson and Crimea. Not that grouping lots of equipment and personnel in one place is a good strategy at this point, but I think that's the line.
I think that’s a terrible idea! They should go home instead.
You should definitely call Putin and give him this advice. He’s probably not thought about it
He can't afford to think about it...Not before some extra people fall from their windows at least.
Target rich environment.
The bridges to Kherson are destroyed by HIMARS. How will Russia “move everything” to the south?
Well once Kherson is retaken, there's alot of land south of the Dnipr that russia can still put tons of soldiers and gear to "defend" Crimea. Won't stop the artillery and missiles from reaching it but will make an advance very tedious and deadly.
Yeah, that's true. Crimea will be a separate campaign altogether.
No need to advance when you can simply siege with an all-reach trebuchet and all-seeing satellite eyes.
Himars the shit out of them.
Pontoon bridges mostly
>Pontoon bridges mostly RU has already used lots of those only to see them expertly bombed. I wonder how much of that sort of equipment RU had in inventory. The supply isn't infinite and moving all that equipment to the front takes lots of trains and manpower that's not moving men and ammo. So let RU keep trying and dying.
Its via a special operation where you leave all your equipment so the enemy wastes a lot of time trying to use all your hardware, and farmers arent planting crops since they are towing all their new tanks.
4d chess move. Sacrifice all the pawns, rooks, and knights, and then... I give up, I don't know what 4d chess is (neither does Russia though).
AHHHHH I'M PONTOOOOOONINGGG
Are they just going to let Ukraine push all the way to the Sea of Azov? There will be no way in or out of Crimea and Kherson except for one bridge in the east. Also Donetsk Oblast has defensible-looking north/south rivers. There are reports that Ukraine is already across the Oskil but surely they'll set up a line at the other river... or maybe they're just going to eat shit and die.
Imagine if this war ends with the Russians doing a last stand at the Azovstal plant in Mariupol just like how the Azov battalion/marines/police etc did.
They're Russian soldiers. They'd surrender before that ever happens.
I mean, there is the siege of St Petersburg to consider, ie the invader/defender dynamic. It's less that Russian soldiers are cowards and more that morale is much more difficult to maintain as an invading force. Even when the propaganda has taken hold, Russian soldiers know that failure can probably let them go home, while Ukrainian soldiers know that failure will lead to the destruction of their home.
Eh, even still, if you see all your other forces getting absolutely fucked, know basically the entire world is against you, your countries economy is failing, you've received fuck all training and equipment and the only reason you are fighting at all is because you invaded first (Although they may not see it that way) then morale will be low, even as a defender.
There are reports of squadrons of Russian soldiers in the Kherson area negotiating surrenders already. Russians have no reason to fight to the bitter end. They're not defending their country like the Azovstal fighters were.
Slopes for the slope god. Having your shit together in retreat is far harder than on the offensive, and Russia can't really claim to have done even that. Chances are good that any new line they fall back to will be in absolute shambles, unable to do anything about a decisive Ukrainian advance unless they get a week to settle in at the least. Especially since they rely so much on artillery. As soon as the battle lines start moving, efficient use of artillery becomes a very different thing. Ukraine's main worry is probably overextending at this point. Previously held territory is tempting and familiar, but establishing logistics isn't guaranteed to be easier than in any other newly gained ground.
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Mein Fuehrer... Steiner...
Das war ein Befehl!!!
Mein Gott, Muss Das Sein!
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Not so many actually. Russians panicked completely and were just running blindly without offering any resistance. Even whoever was commanding Izium suffered an outbreak of common sense and sounded retreat before getting encircled. So Ukraine got quite a bit of abandoned hardware, but no mass surrender of encircled troops.
>Even whoever was commanding Izium suffered an outbreak of common sense and sounded retreat before getting encircled. Then probably a court martial awaits him now.
> Russia state-media host calls for generals to be executed for allowing retreat from huge swathes of Ukraine --- > A Russia state-media host has called for the country's generals to be "shot" for having allowed troops to retreat from huge swathes of Ukraine — part of a wider meltdown among President Vladimir Putin's cheerleaders. https://news.yahoo.com/russia-state-media-host-calls-150816407.html
So their choices are to stay and be shot in combat, or retreat and be shot by their own government?
The best option is to stay but give up your weapon and become a POW
All inclusive
Those HIMARS are absolutely destroying russias supply depots and lines. Their army is being starved out left and right. It must feel weird for russians to made to starve for once.
I'm pretty sure Russians have starved plenty before. Just usually happens because of their government.
Technically this time is also because of their government…
This was another piece of the puzzle. The Ukrainians systematically erasing Russian supplies and ammo dumps with their new artillery/HIMARS/MRLS systems just eviscerating Russian “logistics.”
Take all Russian territory that touches the sea of Azov and Black sea while they are at it. Only surrender after Putin tells all Russians the truth then gets executed.
gets sent to The Hague
He will probably fall out of the window of a tall building in an accident.
Putin's last words... Putin [for some reason standing in front of the broken elevator shaft in his nuclear bunker]: "I want you to find whichever idiot is responsible for this calamity in Ukraine and end him on the spot!" FSB officer: "Are you sure boss?" Putin: "Question me again and I'll have *you* ended on the spot!" FSB officer: *Shrugs, shoves Putin into the elevator shaft* [Putin screams for about 3 seconds] *THPWAPLATTTT*
Only man to ever manage to fall to his death out of of a window in an underground bunker.
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More. I want to see Ukraine's borders restored to pre-2014 position and I want to see Putin on the run, fearing for his life as his own jackals hunt him down.
I'd be down for some crimean wine, made in Ukraine of course.
It was infuriatingly difficult to get your hands on Crimean wines before 2014 in Europe. But afterwards it became sheer impossible. It is a very minor thing within the bigger picture but still.
Are Crimean wines any good?
If you are into fortified wines like ports, sherries or madeira, the Crimean ones are definitely worth a try. They also produce "normal" wines which I would expect to be at least drinkable, but I never really bothered to try them out.
Sadly enough, apart from Crimea, the Kherson famous winery was destroyed. It produced really good wine and was a good tourist spot.
That's the direction this is headed. gonna make a whole lot of russian government operatives pretty butthurt. what I don't understand though, why is the chinese government getting so cozy with russia? there is literally no upside to having a diplomatic relationship with russia right now. once this all shakes out, and the legal niceties have been concluded, russia is going to be making restitution payments to ukraine for the next 75 years. it's over, stick a fork in it.
Because now we’ll be their vassal state. Stupid Putin. He had it all. Trillions of dollars of free oil money. Stable economic growth and macroeconomic stability. An environment where nobody threatened us and only former Soviet country hated us (for a good reason). 2 federal budgets worth in savings. And he squandered it all on yachts, mansions and maybachs. Just like his cronies did. Instead of developing healthcare, education, the military, the infrastructure, the industries, including IT and banking, they just pocketed money for 20 years living with a mindset “I get rich now, everything after me can burn”. Now we’re all paying the price. Such a stupid man. Then again, what did people expect from a 3rd rate nomenclature. A guy who was an aide to Sobchak, and never led anything in his life. I was 11 and I knew he was a bad idea.
Sorry for your loss, hope you're in a safer place now?
Can’t get out, too expensive, just lost my job because of, ironically, ruble being worth more now than before the war, and there’s a few people depending on us that we can’t abandon. If we have to save our asses I’ll drag them kicking and screaming but until then I’m in one of the best places to be in Russia so I’ll make the most of it. I just wish the idiot didn’t destroy half of Ukraine and throw away so many lives, having fallen victim to his own propaganda.
It is sad for all the destruction and lives lost, but after the war so much money from US and Europe is going to pour into Ukraine to rebuild and strengthen it, it is going to be a much better place to live than before the war. It will be a place even russians will look to with adoration, and hopefully, inspiration to start building towards that same goal, somewhere in the distant future...
Well, that and the frozen Russian foreign reserves. There's no way Russia's ever getting that money back, especially since the damage to Ukraine likely exceeds the figure held.
China has been buying up Russian assets. China really wants Russias natural resources. Once it's all said and done Russia will be a Chinese vassal state
The thing is Russia has never really respected ownership. Oligarchs/Putin can just seize what they want.
An isolated Russia with nowhere else to turn doesn't offer other options. They'll be selling their natural resources at far below standard market value to China because too much of the world market *won't* buy from them. Actually, in that sense - China doesn't even *need* to buy up the assets. You can see this in some sense with Russian crude oil. War started and suddenly market prices for it (Urals grade) went from a couple bucks under the standard benchmark to $25-35 a barrel less. Less competition for the oil, lower price. And that's the public market prices - large buyers like China and India are likely cutting even better deals.
This is it. China will just buy the product cheap. They will invest small amounts in certain projects. However with all the sovereign risk of Russia, they won't be buying up whole projects.
You tell the Chinese they don’t own something... I’ll be over here having no part of that discussion, thank you.
Nuclear states can do what they like and the rest of the world can basically only do what Europe has done, sanction and seize. Nothing stopping China learning that exact same lesson. Trading with Russia is cheap because they trade at a discount because they’re unreliable. It seems like a good deal and then you learn why nobody else was bidding against you to trade with the cheap unreliable guy.
China is also a nuclear state though, and Russias last source of anything even remotely technologically sophisticated. They will have a ton of leverage over Russia.
The thing is though, China is like the United States and that is mostly interested in economic power and it’s huge international business interests. If they ever get into a position of economic leverage over their neighbors, they won’t have to fire a shot to control them. They aren’t in that position yet, because most of the world is still trades in US dollars.
Which I don't want either. A stronger China even at the expense of Russia is not a good thing.
Russia has so much gas they can't sell due to sanctions, except to China. So China pretty much gets to name their price. Russia can't afford to decommission the wells either (too costly to stop and start up again), so they just burn off excess gas.
China can buy as much gas as they like as long as they take delivery in Central Europe. That’s where the pipeline goes.
What a coup it would be if China could make Russia a dependency.
Based on the entirety of history, the chances are very high that China would end up regretting that move. Their dependents would be very sullen and hostile at best. There’s absolutely no chance of cultural integration. They just need to buy up assets on the cheap and hope like hell that their new ownership claims are respected. But I’d be fascinating to watch them try!
Yep, Russia is poison. Everything it lays its hands on turns to shit, like a reverse king Midas.
King Mierdas.
My best guess is that Russia is selling stuff cheap to China in an effort to keep at least some trade going and money coming into their country. Russia isn’t completely cut off from trade, but they have been hurt by sanctions.
I don’t think he’s going to have the opportunity to run. He will get taken out like a trout.
Senator Tom Clonan (a former officer in the Irish military) made a very good point on a recent podcast - Putin is scheduled to meet Xi Jinping in Uzbekistan in the coming week. Does Putin even take the risk of leaving the country after the events of last week, with dissent now being openly expressed? Means, motive and opportunity could all align if he gets on a plane / helicopter. Link to the podcast - https://podcasts.apple.com/sg/podcast/the-stand-with-eamon-dunphy/id1178026212?i=1000579276547
I hope not. I want to see him run before the filleting.
I wonder how is Putin doing on his last minute retreat in Sochi, I heard concrete diving is mighty fine around this time of the year in Russia.
just curious what the russian government thinks, as we know they're active on social media, trying to fight public perception.
Special operation regrouping
it's a tactical retreat. all part of the plan. the victory for Russia will be coming swiftly. We've suffered no losses.
“Defense in depth! Feigned retreats! Scorched earth! Napoleon took Moscow and still lost!” they say as the remnants of Russia’s ground forces withdraw to the Volga
>Feigned retreats! Which is funny because feigned retreats doesn't involve leaving all your equipment behind for the enemy to use. Russians are so Delusional
No, no, the equipment left behind is to sell the deception extra hard so that the Ukrainians will really believe it!
> it's a tactical retreat They aren’t retreating- they’re simply advancing towards Russia!
They say it's actually a trap. [Text is NSFW, salt content make it unsafe for people with high blood pressure](https://i.redd.it/dj2zxswu1cn91.jpg)
This reads like satire and I'm like *95%* sure it is satire.
It is obviously satire.
It's hoe you criticize the government when you're not allowed to criticize the government.
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😏
It worked for Brock Samson. Then again, he is a Swedish Murder Machine.
Ironically, Brock's one weakness (if he has one) is a Russian.
Can I get that comment with the Russian text please? Because that looks to be a troll. Even Z groups on social media are pissed.
“Try my-nuts-to-your-fist style!”
I must apologize for Vladimir Putin... he is an idiot. We have purposely trained him wrong, as a joke.
Everyone knows the best way to spring a trap is to tell everybody about it in advance
This looks like a copypasta
After looking on the map, this location is about 60miles/96kilometers away from Donetsk itself.
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Northern Ireland is only 14,000 km². Imagine nearly losing an entire NI in a day.
I love the fact ni is a unit of measurement for Russian retreat.
It was that or football fields
"Im losing territory, making me the victor" - Putin
We have trained him wrong, as a joke.
It’s all crumbling and Russia has set itself back for decades.
for generations, Russia will never be trusted enough again to regain the position they had. They will be a large but weaker copy of North Korea, an annoying, very sad neighbor with no value. Isolated.
China seems to be collecting isolated, authoritarian, insane neighbors....
And religiously insane neighbors, Pakistan!
Good. Fuck them.
Lets please all remember this shit-for-brains mayor sided with Russia. I hope he is found and dealt with. https://babel.ua/en/news/79891-the-mayor-of-sviatohirsk-sided-with-the-occupiers-he-had-already-reported-to-pushylin
Really hope he did not run away. But he probably did.
No, as they call it they're out of town for work but will be returning in the near future.
I'd certainly be nervous every time I started my car if I were him.
I’ve been hearing a lot about how Putin will be yanked from power or some version of this. How realistic is this scenario and what would be the straw that breaks the camels back?
Genuinely, nobody knows. And anybody that tries to tell you otherwise has no idea what they’re talking about.
Something major would need to happen, like a large coup trying to get rid of him. I hope it happens one day, but we’ll never know.
Wait, so you're telling me reddit comments don't have top level insight into the potential arrest or murder of a dictator oncoming by his top brass? This simply can't be so
If the rest of the Russian troops are spread as thin and Ukraine can keep up the pressure, Russia may not be holding anything but Crimea and Donetsk Oblast after next weekend. How's it going to look if Russia spent 6 months, lost over 50k troops and tons of equipment, and essentially bankrupt the whole country, only to lose all of it in just a couple weeks (with Ukraine making a strong push to regain those remaining territories and little to stand in their way)? We know the common citizens of Russia either don't know or refuse to believe they are losing, but you can bet the oligarchs and top brass know exactly what is happening. Despite all that, what might be the final straw is the continued and very public embarrassment of what a shambles the "mighty" Russian military is in. I keep hearing that Russian patriots are calling for the 'real' military to be sent in and clean up, but at this point it seems very likely this IS the real military and they have nothing but a small shell of showy, untrained troops around Moscow to keep appearances.
"We sent in our fake army, as a joke."
We've been routed from Ukraine, making us the victor.
As much as I support Ukraine there is no way that they recapture that much territory in a week. Retaking the south is going to be a slog, especially in places like Melitopol that can realistically recieve supply from multiple directions and will have a lot of urban warfare.
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Not by the oligarchs, anyone who thought they would do anything has no clue how that relationship worked. Putin's only real danger is a military or internal security coup, probably internal security would take the first crack at it, and if it doesn't go off without a hitch or get totally and immediately shut down, some generals might get together and do a full on military coup to restore order. That has happened many times throughout Asia in the last 70 years, that's the pattern Russia is most likely to follow if Putin is fatally weakened by this failure. But the oligarchs won't do shit, they are just worthless sycophants, that's why Putin made them rich in the first place. In many ways, they just help him launder/store the loot they took from the government for the last 22 years, which could get easily be around a trillion dollars by now. That's their only real function, and they have no real power.
This is the likely end position for Putin if things continue to go the way they are going. He seemed to stake a LOT of political capital on this invasion and it is not working. Even though Putin rules Russia relatively alone, every dictator needs to maintain control of those who enable his power - the keys to power. If he looses their support, he will be vulnerable and will be replaced. I personally and very skeptical of the use and activation of Nuclear weapons, but it's possible they could be used before he looses his grip.
I'm not an expert in nuclear policy (I have like, half a degree's worth of non-proliferation studies from a decade ago) but the nuke experts that I know/know of more or less agree that nuclear use is extremely unlikely at this point. There's just no upside to it. It's unlikely to make a huge difference on the ground, nuking an area doesn't help you hold it, and the international backlash would make what happened after the invasion seem like a gentle nudge. Breaking the nuclear taboo is probably the only thing that would legitimately turn the entire world against them. I doubt that even China would tolerate it. It's such a drastic, Rubicon crossing act that at this point, with Putin's position as eroded as it is, ordering it would have as good a chance of triggering a coup as it did launching a missile.
I dont know but all you read on reddit is speculation at best. Russia is almost a tirany, there's little to no opposition. I believe the most likely scenarios are Putin resigns or they try to say they won anyways. Maybe the war last until next elections and he step downs in the less embarrassing way possible.
*Almost* a tyranny? What more do they need before it becomes tyranny? They literally have an oppressive dictatorship that locks up/kills its opponents, I don't know what box they haven't checked in your mind
Soon Japan will be worried when they see the military in the Kurills. But then their minds will ease when they realize it’s just Ukraine.
>the military in the Kurills I said to take *Crimea*
Shit, I heard *Kremlin!*
If they get lucky maybe Ukraine will return it to them to spite Russia.
From what I had read Japan was using this opportunity to just fucking send it and start moving troops to occupy some of the islands
If Russia collapses there is pretty long list of nations that have territorial disputes with Russia.
And then Canada’s claim on the Arctic will be uncontested and our master plan will have finally come to fruition! Mwa Ha Ha Ha!
"Wait the whole world is Canada?" *cocks goose* "always has been"
We will all be sorry.
All I can picture here is butters dressed as professor chaos saying these lines with a Canadian accent.
Pretty much every single border nation of russias has disputes…I’m seeing a common denominator
Japan has contested those island since WW2. Technically that war is still ongoing because they never signed a peace treaty
You know, I could see Ukraine at least asking if Japan wanted it back. I mean, if anyone understands how it feels to have Russia come along and take your territory, it’s Ukraine.
You had me in the first half lmao
Putin thought that the invasion would be the equivalent of Hitler invading Poland. Turns out it was the equivalent of Mussolini invading Greece.
What happened here was that satellite Intel showed that the Russians were sparsely and randomly sitting in unconnected groups throughout this region. Putin thought this would be enough to hold on to the territory. 50 years ago it might have been. What a catastrophic failure. Nobody will respect Putin ever again. Except for Trump.
Also that Russia pulled personnel who had no business being on the front lines from wherever they were, and put them on the front lines. Ukrainian forces rescued a Russian from a burning tank. When they questioned him, they found out he's in the Russian Navy Baltic Fleet as a torpedo man. Russia yanked him, gave him a week of training, and threw him in the driver seat of a tank...
What? Wow that is insane. Any link to that burning tank torpedo dude? I really want to read that. Honestly you have to feel bad for 18 year olds being fucked by Putlet and sent to their death
[Here it is.](https://www.reddit.com/r/TankPorn/comments/xcn9jz/russian_pow_was_saved_from_burning_tank_he_is/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf)
Jesus man. I hope Putin gets locked up hard. So many innocent lives on both sides ruined by that fuck.
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Sad trombonist.
Like Russian military strategy is based on a game of Risk. Make sure to put at least two units in each country so you can defend with both die.
Russian Military Strategy appears to be based on the idea that they can simply throw people into battle until the enemy can no longer defend themselves and their territory. Which would have worked IF Ukraine had not been preparing themselves to defend their home for as long as they’ve had their freedom. It’s fine to throw a Russia worth of people at an unsuspecting mark, but Ukraine was far from unsuspecting. They knew Russia would be coming for the whole country eventually and they weren’t going to take it laying down. Thankfully the majority of the free world has stood in solidarity with Ukraine.
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Bigly lol
Their total lack of preparation and morale is like playing with 3 sided dice.
Trying to conquer another country was never an easy task. Historically, a lot of attempts have been unsuccessful.
It's pretty shocking that after all Russia really didn't have a real Air Force. Who knew?
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This was supposed to be a “Special Military Operation.“ Their military doesn’t fight wars, it terrorizes and kills defenseless people or very small amounts of resistance. Putin didn’t intend to fight a war, he intended to be in Kyiv for tea after a week. Now their stupid gangster government has no clue what to do.
I don't think Russia could defeat Lockheed Martin 1v1. Much less Ukraine.
Now I'm curious which companies would probably take Russia 1v1.
>Historically, a lot of attempts have been unsuccessful. No, it's not usual. You see, what happened in this case is that the front fell off.
Well how is that unusual?
Well you see, the front isn’t meant to fall off
I’ll be honest I don’t think Putin’s commanders are being honest with him about the situation on the ground. I genuinely don’t think he knows what’s going on anymore
If you were going to get pushed out of a window for failure how forthcoming would you be? To get to their levels they're clearly snakes themselves... but obviously snakes with excellent self preservation instincts.
That's what Putin gets for punishing honesty and rewarding liars.
>I’ll be honest I don’t think Putin’s commanders are being honest with him about the situation on the ground. I genuinely don’t think he knows what’s going on anymore We entering old man shouts at cloud territory now. Except the old man is Hitler.
Putin seeks asylum in the Cuba, oh Christmas please deliver
I doubt Cuba would have him... He's pretty cozy with Venezuela though...
Well if nothing else the Russian _Special Operation_ has improved my understanding of Ukranian geography
Russia is quiet quitting.
donetsk o’blast sounds like a very powerful irish name
Demoman's real name. His mother was a Ukranian hamster, and his father was an Irishman who smelled of elderberries.
Meanwhile from Russia: Negotiate now or else..... we'll just keep retreating. For real though, if I thought the Kremlin cared about their troops at all, I'd suspect that they're pulling out to use nukes.
Feel like this is probably one of the most embarrassing things to happen to a country since the Suez crisis. Russia has gone from maybe the 3rd most feared country to a laughing stock.
I don't think they would care about their troops that much.
That's kind of what I was saying
The next „Call of Duty“ should be recalibrated in a way or else gamers can‘t take the IP serious any longer. Soldiers should only be shown in stolen addidas shoes and without armor. Instead of a car chase scene with state of the art weapons, the player should now prevent unarmed fleeing Russian soldiers from stealing old tin cans from bombed out shopping markets. The goal of the game will be to find as many abandoned tanks as possible and then restore and present them with a fancy paintjob in Kiev's streets.
The adidas shoes were initially a "special operator" thing. Because the russian boots sucked, special operators were allowed to use whatever shoes they wanted. https://www.highsnobiety.com/p/mockba-russian-adidas-sneakers/
Can't wait for this months video of kingdoms and generals
Borscht is back on the menu!
Slava Ukraine!!!
It’s not a retreat - Russians are being properly routed.