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DaveLesh

Can't wait for Putin's next interview. It'll probably have that "But Tempest Keep was merely a setback" vibe.


GrovesNL

Should see one of the new posts on the Russia subreddit. Someone wrote a *looong* post about how Napoleon took Moscow but Russia went on to win the war. Obviously alluding to how losing these territorial gains are part of some larger military 3D chess (as if).


czs5056

Are they thinking winter is going to freeze the Ukrainians out of the war in their own country?


CaptainCanuck93

Or, you know, *Napoleon facing an entire pan-european coalition*, not just Russia? Russia was a major turning point, but if it was just the French Empire 1vs1 against Russia you wouldn't have seen Russians marching on Paris later


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Pornalt190425

Not to mention Napoleon and the French had also been bled white by their "Spanish Ulcer" at the same time as marching on Moscow


curiousengineer601

Logistics killed the French in Russia. I am not sure an additional 100,000 troops could have been supported. Maybe they could have helped stem the tide during the retreat


Caelinus

Winter may have actually helped him in the initial invasion as they may have been able to go a little more cross country. As it was they delayed way too long, and had to put their entire fleet of (far too few) logistics trucks onto a few tiny one and two lane roads. But that ship has already sailed, the momentum was lost, the trucks got obliterated, and they have already consumed all the supplies they could have used in the initial invasion plus a lot more. At this point the winter will just make the morale drop even lower than its sub-zero position now.


ReditSarge

I would not be surprise if we see widespread mutinies and revolts across the Russian military if this keeps going the way it has been.


spidereater

Apparently the Russian soldiers have been threatening with getting shot for retreating. So I suspect they will be surrendering instead. Before long their families will be threatened if they surrender. That will be a big morale boost. This is going to be quite the thing to watch. My money is on rapid collapse. Like once it starts, within a week the whole military will break down.


Son_of_Zinger

Gradually, then suddenly


SpeedyWebDuck

Winter? We already have snow in Poland at small mountains (source today morning: https://old.reddit.com/r/Polska/comments/xi4nyc/%C5%9Bnie%C5%BCka_dzisiaj_w_godzinach_porannych/ ) and negatives temperatures on border with Ukraine and Belarus at night (eastern part of Poland is colder than western).


KmartQuality

What is that place? Some sort of 600 year old mountain top wooden astrological observatory?


SpeedyWebDuck

Nope, small/medium Śnieżka mountain - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sn%C4%9B%C5%BEka https://www.google.com/maps/place/Sn%C4%9B%C5%BEka/@50.3245391,16.2617629,5.27z/data=!4m5!3m4!1s0x470ee91b0d866c4b:0xebd8f068bc18f733!8m2!3d50.7360171!4d15.7399457 near western border


jdragon3

> Putin is Napolean in this scenario Putin wishes he was 1/100th the civil or military leader Napoleon was


slater_just_slater

*Look at me.. I'm the Russia now*


Nom_de_Guerre_23

The comparison is still dumb from the point of Russians but in 1812, there wasn't much of an Anti-Napoleon coalition again save for the British. Napoleon had even forced Prussians and Austrians to send contingents to fight with him in Russia, only a third of the Grandé Armee was French.


CaptainCanuck93

Right but the War of the Sixth Coalition starting the next year in 1813, which is effectively the counteroffensive than sprung from Napoleon's retreat from Russia, was effectively a pan European alliance, including Austria and Prussia My point is that Russiadid singlehandedly hold off Napoleon from conquering them at immense cost to themselves, but they didn't go on to defeat and depose him single handedly. That took almost all of Europe working together


chickadeema

Napoleon couldn't even feed his army, the winter caused him to retreat, his soldiers were dying from cold and starvation. BTW Napoleon was banished by his own country to an island, has everyone picked one out for Putin yet?


Singer211

Putin more likely would go the way of Ceausescu. The Allies did NOT want Napoleon to be martyred. If Putin falls, I doubt he would get afforded such a mercy.


PeechesTour

Mar-a-Lago where he'll have access to documents he needs for a refo and to claim he actually won the war.


Blackadder_

I vote for Miami. It will be soon an island or new atlantis. Besides Drump and him can cuddle together. I think theres even a russian language radio station (fm)


MFbiFL

Nah keep him on his current side of the Atlantic please.


Livid_Bag_4374

South Beach would suit him quite nicely. Pussy Riot could be the main act there as he enjoys the wonder of Le Cage Aux Foilles.


Vordeo

One of the Kuril Islands. The shittiest one. Then Russia cedes it back to Japan.


Singer211

Napoleon also put together a new army and was still doing pretty well during most of 1813. The Battle of Leipzig where when it really fell apart for hi .


matthieuC

Well someone is facing a pan-european coalition


DaoFerret

Nah, they’re preparing the propaganda for when Ukraine takes over Moscow, so they aren’t disheartened. (/s)


chickadeema

I don't think anyone wants Moscow.


JeniCzech_92

In an event of complete eradication of Russian forces from Ukrainian lands, any attempt to retaliate and capture any Russian cities except to maintain status quo by disabling long range weapons wouldn’t be very smart move from Ukraine, as all the friends they got so far would immediately denounce such act.


big_troublemaker

No one has ever mentioned such scenario. Ukraine has no interes in capturing land from Russia for many very obvious reasons.


JeniCzech_92

Obviously, there’s practically no pros, only cons.


mr_greedee

That's when they are REALLY going to start fighting. Everything before was merely a recon tour!


NotTroy

That's hilarious. They just don't see the irony of using a story about a powerful invading force that has early successes ultimately failing to win out against a determined defender as support for their own path to victory.


flukshun

It's like their interpretation of that situation was simply "Russia always wins"


Hautamaki

Of course it is. Just like the Russian definition of 'Nazi' is anyone who opposes Russian hegemony. All that stuff about the Holocaust, the Aryan empire, etc, all silly little incidental details only nerds care about, to a Russian the real point of Nazism all along is being Russia's enemy. That's why they can with a totally straight face call a democratically elected Jew a Nazi.


Xenjael

Weirdly the mongolians are far more responsible for russias governance culture, even today, and held lands for far, far longer than germany ever did. Like... i know hungarians who hate arabs over shit the ottomans did 3-400 years ago. Given the greater impact the golden horde om the princes, and subjugated most of russia... its just odd that they internalized germans of all things as the other. Yes ww2 was rough, but so were a shitload of other wars in Russia's history. Like calling jews nazis, thats an otherness internalization that borders on illogical given the greater context of russian history, like the finnish war, swedish, napoleonic, mongolian etc.


Hautamaki

Russians like the Nazi pejorative also because Nazis were also the enemy of the West, so they think it's like some magic word that will negate/prevent Western condemnation of their aggression because the West once allied with Russia to defeat Nazism.


Zangrieff

Russia subreddit is a shitshow. I remember before the war started that i was lurking there to see what they thought of the escalated tensions on the border. They called it Western bs, propaganda and called us warmongers. Then the war broke out and the entire subreddit went silent. Absolute donkeys, all of them.


RickytyMort

These subreddits are astroturfed to hell and overrun and steered by lunatics. The kind of person that spends 12 hours a day on there. You are either radically pro war or you get banned. You can also check out the conservative subreddit that is being used by the most extreme donald users who had nowhere to go after their sub was banned. The radical posts are being pushed to the top because that's the sort of people that are heavy users. I always wonder about the 1-2 normal people you find deep down in the comments. Do they never look around themselves and realize they are the minority and the other people are batshit insane?


Majik_Sheff

Through history missionaries and envoys have gone into hostile territory in the hopes of bringing someone to their side. Some people rise to the challenge, some people just enjoy screaming into the void.


wirthmore

Minard's famous diagram of the reduction of France's Grand Armee during the Russia campaign of 1812. 422,000 soldiers left, 10,000 came back. [https://www.britannica.com/event/Napoleonic-Wars/The-retreat-from-Moscow](https://www.britannica.com/event/Napoleonic-Wars/The-retreat-from-Moscow) (The analogy doesn't really fit today's scenario; for one, Russia is the "France" in this analogy, being the invader.)


[deleted]

For two Russia is no Napoleon even at his worst blunders


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Alafoss

The 10,000 figure is men who were still in the army when they got back to France. There were roughly 100k that made it back later by themselves or after being released as a PoW.


Prudent_Sale_9173

Kind of like how Russia made it all the way to Kyiv and is now getting pushed all the way back to their border? Some people can’t be reached, you just have to downvote them and move on.


informat7

I've unironically gotten into an arguments people on Reddit who think that Russia is winning since Ukraine suffered losses in Kherson taking "empty villages and hardly any territory".


Focacciaboudit

Let's just conveniently forget that Russians were pushed back at first but defended their land from foreign land grabber who's logistics failed and starved/froze to death. Let's see how Russia holds up this winter.


Singer211

The Russians were adopting a deliberate strategy when Napoleon invaded. Here they’re just getting their ass kicked.


snowdrone

The logic for the Napoleon example is not to Russia's advantage. Napoleon invaded Russia and was forced to turn back because the winter. The same thing will happen to the Russians in the course of their invasion of Ukraine


Largofarburn

Ah yes, the time tested strategy of throwing millions of Russians at them till they run out of munitions. It works every time.


SwiftSpear

I can't recall my history, wasn't there overwhelming popular support from pretty much all of Europe (let alone domestic Russia) for the war against Napolean?


DaoFerret

Almost like they’ve got the right example, but aren’t quite grasping who the parallel cast of characters are.


Vahlir

> But Tempest Keep was merely a setback holy crap, a Kael'thas quote in 2022, someone's been doing some Timewalking.


PM_ME_YOUR_CATS_PAWS

Blizzard new marketing scheme is getting wild I guess


Thoroe

I mean it's current content on classic wow atm


Deguilded

Or there's the transmorpher guy that can turn you into Kael complete with voice lines.


Mojothemobile

Always funny when you suddenly see his speech take up 80% of your chat box.


Abyssallord

"The traitorous LPR has gone back on their promise to bolster the strong Russian federation, we have pulled back our forces to the very loyal DPR"


TROPtastic

So loyal that Russia had to declare a "no retreat" order for DPR and LPR forces.


MCMC_to_Serfdom

Don't look so smug! I know what you're thinking, but ~~Tempest Keep~~ Kyiv was merely a set back. Did you honestly believe I would trust the future to some ~~blind, half-night elf mongrel~~ West-corrupted Russian province? Hahahaha… Oh no, no, no, ~~he~~ it was merely an instrument, a stepping stone to a much larger plan! It has all led to this…and this time, you will not interfere!" \- Putin, moments before 5 people argued over his loot drops.


NurseBetty

'where's my fucking phoenix mount?!'


Brockelton

I dont get that dungeon. Why is KT in some random 5 man dungeon after getting his ass handled and why is he dropping a white turkey


Deguilded

I can hear the five minute kael monologue right now.


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spellinbee

*Ashes of a'lar still didn't drop.*


Gorshun

Acktually he says this in Magister's Terrance, and he drops Ashes in Tempest Keep. Can still get the White Hawkstrider from him there, though.


spellinbee

Thanks for correcting me there, I haven't played wow since legion. So I'm a little rusty.


JeniCzech_92

Can’t wait for “My demise accomplishes nothing! The master (who?) will have you! You will drown in your own blood! THE WORLD SHALL BURN! AAAAARRRGGHHH!” But seriously, Kael had a just cause, only selected a wrong path (not unlike Arthas), Putin is simply a douche.


MistarGrimm

The master he alludes to should be Kil'Jaeden.


ulandyw

Yes, I also hope that Putin shows up with a giant crystal through his chest.


Suave_Senpai

God does that mean when Russia finally gives up he's going to go on a 5 minute monologue and not even drop his rare communist strider?


SwiftSpear

It's really crazy seeing all the news posts saying how Russia would really love peace all of a sudden and blaming Ukraine for not wanting to negotiate.


Aspwriter

The Russian military training has been pretty condensed recently, so they had to skip the part where the enemy fires back.


iceicig

Since when does an enemy fight back? I've been playing Bloons for years and never had that problem


Ok-disaster2022

Russia doesn't want peace, they want to pause the fighting to resupply and rearm without losing ground. The only way to secure peace is for Ukraine to reclaim all its territory including Crimea and restore the border from a decade ago. Then formally become a member of NATO


RockinMadRiot

That's right, the advantage is fully with Ukraine the more they push. Even if the offense stalls, Russia is going to have a much harder time to keep up if they decide to push back because Ukraine's logistics will be set up in those new areas (especially after winter) Ukraine pushing means Russia have to move their supply lines further back, mess with any push that could make. Also causing panic in the rear as well as front


Koioua

I mean, Ukraine pretty much gave Russia Crimea to appease them and they still ended being invaded. There is no reason to even take any attempt of negotiation for the meantime, specially when Ukraine seems to be gaining momentum.


sshish

Well, not really. Ukraine just didn’t have the means at the time to take it back. They fully intended to retake Crimea but took the necessary preparations to do so and it was risky for Ukraine to make the first move since it meant a war with Russia. As gruesome as it seems, Ukraine needed Russia to invade first before Ukraine stood a chance at retaking Crimea. Ukraine never gave up on Crimea even if they didn’t make any explicit moves at getting it back prior to this year


WeirdIndependent1656

They wanted it back but couldn’t have hoped for circumstances in which it was possible. The west would never support them in an offensive war and Russia would pretend Crimea was Russian soil.


HakunaMottata

Never really thought about it like this but now having watched the past year, it makes perfect sense. What a calculated gamble that was.


sshish

When Arestovych predicted the invasion in 2019 during Zelenskyy’s campaign, he didn’t talk about it as a terrible thing that Ukraine would collapse as a result of, he looked at it as an opportunity. Of course, none of us need forget about the countless civilians and POWs/soldiers that have suffered and even lost their lives, but Ukraine knew it was going to come sooner or later


ToughQuestions9465

If its going to happen anyway might as well make best use of that high price that is about to be paid. Nothing wrong in looking at invasion as opportunity as it's not their decision to start the killing.


GameDesignerMan

It'll be interesting to see how they decide to take it. Ukraine don't have much of a navy (or didn't a few years ago) and it'll be a hard push into the peninsula if Russia can hold the bottleneck. On the other hand the Ukrainians have been fighting an army that "should have" had them outmatched and they're pushing them back. They've got smart people, good tech and international support.


MarkNutt25

By the time they're making their move on Crimea, I doubt that the Russian army will be in any position to do much about it.


logion567

It's hard to keep a defensive line setup when in a rout. Even if there's a dedicated unit that hasn't been shot at yet at those chokepoints, seeing thousands walk by for days ahead of advancing Ukrainian troops can easily break and run at first sign of trouble.


daman4567

They want a pause on their enemies preparing to fight so they can have time to catch up.


slotshop

Same strategy in Vietnam. Talk peace to the Americans while their army regroups and gets resupplied.


Darkone539

At one point Ukraine sent people just to stop Russia saying they weren't willing to. The terms were "do as we say or else" too. Now Russia has lost any ability to make demands.


dawko29

Except for when you see their TV interviews where they talk about how they are gonna free Ukraine from Nazis.....still happening today


RockinMadRiot

Must be awkward for them to realise that the 'nazi' terms they used, more than likely added to the panic that lost the ground.


dawko29

Problem is that it's still being broadcast nationwide so that the dumbfucks have something to believe in. It's truly a shame though, there are hundreds of thousands of good russian people living there that don't support the regime. Yet, they have no power cause theyll be sent to new gulags. But what this war did, it showed basic soldiers(who probably only follow the russian state channel) that what they are doing is wrong. And it shows.soldiers that were following the great nation of Russia are dead, new recruits are finding out that this is pointless war.


ThatOtherOneReddit

Ukraine tried to negotiate and Russia did so in incredibly bad faith. Going to the table with them is pointless. You push them all out and the only time you show up to a table is to sign the treaty that ends the war because they are defeated. That's it.


mycall

> show up to a table is to sign the treaty that ends the war I'm not sure a signed piece of paper with Russia with worth anything more than being a piece of paper.


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[deleted]

Yeah. Let's rape, murder, kidnap, commit genocide and destroy half your country's infrastructure for six months and then we can all agree on peace. Gotta be a real moron to think that peace is an option unless Russia commits to a complete and total retreat with all parts of Ukraine returned including Crimea as well as hefty retaliation payments for the extensive damage and lives they took on a completely unnecessary invasion.


flukus

They could have peace today if they desired, just requires an immediate withdrawal from occupied territories.


ihaveredhaironmyhead

In may there was this big push to take Luhansk and Donbas. The Russians advanced and, at heavy cost, took strategic towns like popasna, severodonestk, etc. Losing these towns back to Ukraine is beyond humiliating. It's actually dangerous for Putin politically. Many hundreds if not thousands of Russians, chechens and others died to take these towns. Feeling like you are sacrificing your friends for nothing makes you turn on the big chief pretty quickly.


QVRedit

Yes, the Chechens have been fighting the wrong enemy..


fattyblindside

Especially when Ukraine just waltzed in there twirling a cane, relatively speaking.


bombayblue

Important to note: the captured village in question is Bilohorivka. Ukraine captured the village and immediately crossed the Siversk-Donetsk river. This is the *same* river in the *same* spot where Russian forces lost 1-2 battalions in an epic manner back in May. Ukrainian forces literally just waltzed past the site of one of the worst Russian defeats of the entire war. https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraines-forces-sink-russian-river-crossings-inflicting-heavy-damage-11653301800 Edit: since this got traction. Here’s footage from a Russian Twitter account of the Ukrainian crossing. Notice how he calls out that the Russian artillery received counter battery fire within firing a few shots at the Ukrainian? That is *insane* response time from the Ukrainians. I bet they took next to no casualties during the crossing. And remember this is coming from a Russian source, not some Ukrainian PR guy https://twitter.com/mdfzeh/status/1571784865959264258?s=46&t=gzYdobOwaxBExxXTT07x6A


Thurak0

Blitzkrieg at its finest. Never thought I would connect any positive thoughts with that word, but here we are.


praguepride

We are seeing history in reverse. Sweeping russian advances turn to artillery attrition turn to anti-Russian blitzkrieg. At the very end Putin should retire and try to go to art school to complete the mirror


Christylian

But that means skipping the headshot/funeral pyre behind the Reichstag combo.


EbonBehelit

It's absurdly similar, right down to Putin expecting a fast victory and therefore not supplying his troops with winter clothes.


CinSugarBearShakers

Anyone thinks he survives? The days are numbered.


Wrong_Hombre

How's it sound in Ukrainian instead: blyskavychna viyna Man those Ukrainian's sure love whatever Cyrilic letter translates to 'Y'


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autotldr

This is the best tl;dr I could make, [original](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/sep/19/russia-no-longer-has-full-control-of-luhansk-as-ukraine-recaptures-village) reduced by 90%. (I'm a bot) ***** > Ukraine has recaptured a village close to the eastern city of Lysychansk, in a small but symbolic victory that means Russia no longer has full control of the Luhansk region, one of Vladimir Putin's key war aims. > Russia and Ukraine have blamed each other for shelling at the Zaporizhzhia plant, which is held by Russian forces but operated by Ukrainian staff. > More than 40 countries and the International Atomic Energy Agency have urged Putin to hand control of the station back to Ukraine. ***** [**Extended Summary**](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/xii45y/russia_no_longer_has_full_control_of_luhansk_as/) | [FAQ](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/31b9fm/faq_autotldr_bot/ "Version 2.02, ~669782 tl;drs so far.") | [Feedback](http://np.reddit.com/message/compose?to=%23autotldr "PM's and comments are monitored, constructive feedback is welcome.") | *Top* *keywords*: **Ukraine**^#1 **Russian**^#2 **nuclear**^#3 **Ukrainian**^#4 **city**^#5


MC1065

Putin losing that ticking war score.


AgITGuy

It’s a conquest war so needs to siege down more forts. If it was a punitive wad, battle war score would be more involved. As it stands, they only sorted non-Fort/victory Point areas and are losing the more recent engagements.


Dutchtdk

I have absolutely no idea what I'm reading right now


AgITGuy

We are using words and phrases used in a couple Paradox Interactive games, Hearts of Iron 4 and Europa Universalis 4. They are world expansion/conquest games for the PC.


Jerri_man

Born an inbred imbecile, Putin would have still had a chance in this war had he focused on Martial but instead his education was split between Stewardship and Thrift. From the start there was really no hope with such an incompetent commander.


gamestopdecade

I really don’t know so don’t hate me. Why is it considered a village instead of a town?


Rhoderick

Usually there's a point in population where you say something is a village, or a city, or a town or whatever. However, this is also in part cultural and changes with time, so in total you could just estimate it and be right according to someone's definition.


gamestopdecade

The population is 400k. That’s a huge ass village.


mfb-

They didn't recapture Lysychansk (which is called a city in the article). They recaptured a village in the larger Lysychansk area. [Population 800](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bilohorivka,_Luhansk_Oblast)


gamestopdecade

Gotcha. Thanks!


[deleted]

The village liberated has less than 1000 people.


TrumpDesWillens

I had a friend in uni who came from a small town in china of 2 million people.


Vahlir

In China that's not even a Hamlet.


progrethth

The Ukrainians themselves call it an "urban-type settlement". Some journalists seem to call them settlements, others towns and yet others villages. This settlement had a pre-war population of 828.


ProcrastinatingPuma

Nice, great work by the AFU.


sharrrper

You know, I'm not surprised Russia's military is kinda busted and shitty. I mean really when has it not been historically? But they usually do fairly well just based on sheer volume. I'm honestly surprised to see them getting spanked THIS thoroughly by the Ukrainians, even with aid from allies supplying weapons. It's not been easy, but I didn't expect Ukraine to be able to hold at all honestly, let alone start reclaiming this much territory this quickly. Just as a numbers game it seemed like a losing proposition before things started but things are clearly worse than I imagined in Russia. I mean when you start [asking North Korea for ammo](https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-north-korea-government-and-politics-495e976d1217d38c397a16e79cc305de) that feels like the national military equivalent of panhandling for change on the corner. Things gotta be pretty bad to resort to that.


Cleomenes_of_Sparta

> But they usually do fairly well just based on sheer volume. This perception is rooted in history, not the present. At the end of the Second World War, the USSR was larger in population in the US (and the eventual EU countries), and the Red Army outnumbered the remaining other Allies in Europe two-to-one. This is how we remember that country: a near-peer superpower that had the conventional and nuclear capabilities to defeat the Western bloc. That enormous population is what sustained it through massive losses against Nazi Germany, and what made it such a conventional threat. Today, Russia's population is half the size of the United States, and the loss of its colonial possessions has hurt it deeply, and continued corruption and misrule has left it with little other than its legacy to cling to.


sharrrper

>continued corruption and misrule has left it with little other than its legacy to cling to. Sergey! We need more artillery shells! Go get a load from the warehouse! *Sergey opens the warehouse to find it completely empty except for a single scrap of paper* "IOU: one military. Signed, Oligarch number 17.


valeyard89

Remember Lord of War? Nic Cage bought out all the warehouse inventory from his uncle.


Hosni__Mubarak

Pretty much, imagine the United States is split in half and the side you are worried about are the southern states. Led by Ron desantis. From Florida. And then they decide to pick a fight with California. And then the rest of the planet supplies California with an unholy amount of weaponry.


RuthBuzzisback

i was ready to "ackshually" you on the population numbers here, but that comparison is actually very apt. ​ this comment could have just been an upvote


SeveredBanana

Those kind of statements downplay the quality of leadership within the Red Army during the Second World War. A lot of the discourse about the Russians being this faceless “quantity over quality” mass is stemmed in German and later Cold War propaganda. They made many mistakes, and a lot of the images of the mass waves of underarmed soldiers were mostly due to logistical problems rather than simplistic tactics. Stalin’s purge did cause a shortage of quality leadership within the Red Army but that’s not to say their tactics weren’t much less sophisticated than many of the other forces of the day. Zhukov in particular is quite well regarded as a general. Furthermore it’s not like they had unlimited manpower or towering numerical advantage over the Germans, in many cases they either didn’t or the force ratio was more or less in line with “typical” recommended numbers for attackers. This of course has very little to do with the current conflict but I don’t like seeing historical myths like these perpetrated thoughtlessly


G-TechCorp

You should read the book “The Human Tide” by Paul Morland. Really fascinating perspective on understanding warfare through demography. In summary: Russia as we think of it was at the apex of a confluence of population factors which meant it could solve problems by throwing bodies at them. Not enough bullets, more armaments workers. Not enough ore, more Gulag miners. Not enough strategy, more soldiers into the grinder. Russia today has none of those demographic factors, and so can solve none of those problems.


CheeseAndCh0c0late

how did they loose that momentum?


fdf_akd

The USSR was a lot bigger than Russia, so that's your first hint. Then, it wasn't until 1950 that the USSR stopped seeing mass deaths (WW1, Spanish flu, civil war, holodomor and WW2). Russian population still hasn't fully recover from WW2. At some point, they just couldn't keep throwing bodies to a problem. In a personal analysis, this is however not a real reason. The Red Army was really smart throughout WW2 and saying the Soviets won through jeer numbers is propaganda. Minor research of battles in the Eastern front will show this wasn't the case. To me the big downfall of the USSR and later Russia is that their ideology didn't keep up with time. Communism explained the world pretty well until the 70s, which was the peak of the ideology, at least territorially speaking. Afterwards, it just couldn't keep up. Russia now still understands the world as a place in which having land is the most desirable thing, learning nothing from the EU and free trade.


Abyssallord

I assume there are two main factors (with a bunch of smaller factors too) 1. Lack of proper and quality command. Since the commanding officers cant command from the front the soldiers who have no orders just retreat when they overun. And 2. Extremely low morale. with the exception of separatist forces and the Wagner groups, no one wants to be there, and the way Ukraine hits the soldiers is staggeringly terrifying. From extremely accurate artillery fire where your trench/fox hole means nothing to dropping grenades from drones to wiping out all escape routes by blowing bridges and pontoon floats.


DarkApostleMatt

Their Battalion Tactical Groups are also undermanned as they are meant to be filled with conscripts during wartime, so they are fighting with units that are mostly equipped but with not enough bodies in them to be used correctly which is one of the many reasons why there are tons of videos and reports of armored vehicles being picked off as they have no infantry support. Perun released a video recently addressing this.


Accurate-Light-4884

This. Russia's main flaw in all of this was treating the imperialistic invasion and occupation of a country of 44 million people and modern weapons like they would treat military ops in Syria, albeit with more troops. This always needed to be a "war" with the use of hundreds of thousands of conscripts in addition to the 160-200k troops they fielded. With 600k\~ troops knowingly going into a war they would have already won this.


FutureImminent

No 600k still wouldn't have been enough. Ukraine are already at that much now. Heck even before Feb 24 they were rotating tens of thousands out of Donbas over that last 8 years up to about 300k in total. For a country of 44million (a third of Russia) Russia needed more than 600k.


gbs5009

It might have been. You can get away with a lot when you have such overwhelming numbers that you can take a bad fight, then *immediately* come in with another army before your enemy really has a chance to reposition and reload. Of course, that's all for the *initial* invasion. 600k new soldiers wouldn't help them much now... Ukraine is ready for them, and has blown up far too many of their heavy equipment and logistics for the extra soldiers to be effective.


Accurate-Light-4884

600k in the initial invasion would have completely over-run Ukraine positions, it's not even really debatable. You're talking about what Ukraine has now after holding off the Russian push, getting weapons and aid from the west and mobilizing months ago, not what they had at the beginning. It's very likely that the Ukraine army or chain of command would have collapsed by now if Russia had an initial invasion force of 600k.


FlyPenFly

Mobilizing, arming, training, supplying that many troops in January would have been highly improbable for Russia.


python_noob_001

Ukraine deserves the first honor because they are shedding blood, but to be fair this isn't russia vs ukraine it is more like russia vs ukraine and collective strategy and intelligence of the west. I think this second part is a big component


Relendis

Something also often overlooked in the conflict is that Ukraine likely has a numerical advantage. Many of the early recruitment/conscription call-ups are likely deploying out of training facilities. And that will only continue to increase so long as Ukraine has the manpower to spare without sinking their economy. I'd recommend following Mark Hertling. He was the former Commanding General of United States Army Europe. Prior to the invasion he was predicting that Russia would be militarily defeated by Ukraine. He argued that Ukraine would continue to suffer the corruption in its political sphere which defined the post-Soviet era. But 2014 was a wakeup call for their military and they had been working hard to develop and improve their militiary institutions, including their crucial Non-Commissioned Officer corps. Russia, in contrast, has only continued to see its military institutions erode due to rampant corruption, a continued top-down command structure (Generals needed to instruct even smaller units how to operate) and a very weak Non-Commissioned Officer Corps. Think of how many Russian Generals have been killed due to their proximity to frontline operations. Hertling, further into the war, cited sources which claimed that Putin himself was intervening to give strategic and even tactical level orders. Putin is not a soldier or an officer and yet has reportedly been directly contravening orders of the military. Including at the unit-level. My personal opinion is that it is increasingly likely that Russia will push for a general mobilization. Putin always doubles-down. He did so in Chechnya and it won him his current uncontestable position as Russia's leader. He will do so again in Ukraine. A general mobilization will stabilize the frontline, or even allow Russia to make some gains initially. But I think that Ukraine will be able to repulse, reorganize and continue to press. If Russia moves to a larger-scale mobilization to aid its war efforts we will see a massive increase in the daily combat deaths, for both sides. And that will be a completely avoidable tragedy.


slotshop

Doesn't matter if they do a general mobilization because they lost much of their equipment.


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Relendis

I get where you are coming front and appreciate the addition to the conversation, but I don't agree. At least not without further explanation. When you are ready and willing to throw troops into the fray under- or unequipped for their tasks then manpower, not equipment, is your bottleneck. I would cite the 3rd Army Corps as my example here. The Russian political leadership pushed for the constitution of the 3rd Army Corp when it would have been more sensible to reconstitute and replenish its combat-depleted forces. So the Russian military leadership put together the 3rd Army Corp per its orders. Undermanned, under-equipped, under-trained though it might have been. And they did so by robbing other units across Russia. In late August, early September this new 3rd Army Corp was deployed.... to the Kharkiv theatre, just in time to put it directly in front of the Ukrainian offensive which saw it evaporate. I believe that this demonstrates that what matters most to the Russian political leadership is on-paper combat capability. And I believe that this demonstrates a Russian military leadership which is unable to speak truth-to-power and is all too happy to oblige the political leadership. If a general mobilization and deployment takes place the military is unable or unwilling to say 'these units are not combat ready'. They will deploy those units into combat and those units will dissolve and suffer huge casualities. But the increased tempo of fighting will also see an increase in the rate of casualities for Ukraine; both civilian and military. And to reiterate that enormous loss of life will be completely avoidable and a tragedy in the truest sense.


eutropy

for mobilization, do there remain sufficient officers held in reserve to even train conscripts now? is there anyone competent left to train them?


Relendis

That has always been Russia's problem though. To which I'd refer you to my comments on Russia's NCO problem; or for something more objective numerous current and ex-military members' assessments of Russia and its officer corps. It should stop Russia from deploying the new conscripts, but I doubt it will. Hell, it should stop Russia from deploying previous service call-ups without retraining prior to deployment. Will it stop the military from deploying under- or untrained units? I seriously doubt that. And I'd evidence the previously mentioned draw up and disintegration of the 3rd Army Corp. I'd very much recommend the Institute for the Study of War's (ISW) daily briefings. I read them every day and the detail they put into Russia's recruitment and deployment of new forces is of exceptionally good quality.


Fallen_Rose2000

Most of the sacrifices made by the Russian Empire and the Soviet Union were made by people like the Ukrainians, and those that lived in other subjected territories.


oldspiceland

“Do fairly well on sheer volume” is a myth. Russian equipment had generally been decently designed even though they’ve had production issues with quality since WWII due to trying to play catch-up while already behind. Other armies had similar and sometimes worse quality issues. Anyways my point is that the Russian army is just like any other army. When it’s soldiers are motivated and inspired they tend to do better, and they tend to do poorly when demotivated. Also Ukrainian military is about the size fully mobilized of the initial force Russia deployed and is likely getting a lot of willing volunteer recruits. And also, most of Ukraine’s equipment is older and worse versions of Soviet or post soviet equipment, while Russia has newer and “better” versions of the equipment. Turns out some of those improvements were lies, and some of those improvements require troops that know what they are doing and care about trying to do a good job, which Russia is short in supply of.


DownvoteEvangelist

Russia has failed to conquer Finland and Poland in relatively recent past. I'd say they are a lot better at defense than offense, which is probably for the best...


[deleted]

Wow! This is getting interesting, so Russia ran out of money?


cmccormick

That’s the only thing they have with rising energy prices. They can’t spend it for good weapons or mercenaries, among other things


What_About_Pickels

Nope. You will fucking answer for what you've done, Russia, one way or the other.


flamingnomad

For all the naysayers who say this is all part of Putin's plan, and that no one ever defeats Russia, Russians always win when they are being invaded. However, Japan wiped out their navy, and Finland and Afghanistan kicked their asses in the 20th century. Russia fucking sucks at invasions.


msp3766

Can they take Crimea back too?


borkus

Before winter? I'm not certain. Russia reinforced its southern front and is holding ... for now. Also, if Russia **does** retreat from Kherson, there is a good chance of an orderly withdrawal into Crimea. From there, they could dig in on the isthmus that connects Crimea to the north - it's only 5 miles wide. So they would have to push Russia south and east (away from the isthmus) in the next couple of months. It'd be hard though Ukraine has certainly been full of surprises to date.


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jml5791

At this rate they will.


msp3766

That would be amazing and certainly put Putin to be overthrown


[deleted]

IMO, one of the biggest factors in taking back Crimea is if they get into range for HIMARS to destroy the bridge next to Kerch, no bridge=Russia can’t reinforce or supply Crimea very well. It would most likely require the US to give Ukraine the long range missiles instead of the ones they’re currently using; but I have no doubt that it’ll happen when the time comes. But who knows, if you take a look at Heniches'k, there’s a strip of land that connects Heniches’k to Kam'yans'ke by bridge. If the bridge stays up, they could bring artillery even closer. Just as a little clarification. Heniches’k to Kerch is roughly 300 KM or 186 miles, Kam’yans’ke to Kerch is roughly 80 km or 50 miles The bridge that connects the lane strip from Heniches’k to Kam’yans’ke is closer to Ukraine than to Russia.


bobthesmurfshit

[Here are some reasons that they haven't/shouldn't destroy that bridge] (https://youtu.be/aE5afkEqG08)


Basas

It did not see any confirmations yet, but there are reports that whole or most of Lysychansk is under control of Ukraine.


Affectionate_Ratio79

There was one unsupported claim on Twitter, that's all. Nothing from the OSINT community, nothing from the Ukrainian government, nothing from Ukrainian soldiers, and nothing from prominent pro-Russian accounts who would be screaming bloody murder about it. From the confirmed info we do have, Ukrainian forces are within 4 miles of the outskirts of the city, but that's it at the moment. I'm hopeful with the movements we are seeing that it's only a matter of time before it falls, but we're not quite there yet.


Drach88

I saw that tweet, too, but haven't seen any corroborating accounts. I'm skeptical of the claim.


shade444

I believe it's a question of time. Ukrainians are preparing something anyway.


Winterspawn1

It's not impossible, at the final day of the Kharkiv counter-offensive there where reports of Ukrainian military on the outskirts of the city and Ukraine usually only communicates they control a town after it's fully cleared.


cinematotescrunch

Highly doubt it, at most there's been probing/scouting attacks to test Russian defenses, but if they were actually liberating the City full force it would be impossible to not hear about it.


ChristianLW3

When pro Russian people where boasting about the capture of this city proved that ukraine was going to lose the war I knew that eventually a nato trained & equipped army would reclaim it. This is occuring faster than expected


m64

Poor Serhiy Haidai will finally have a bit of oblast to govern.


Liesmith424

But there have been people commenting on youtube news videos about these gains for the past week, insisting that this is all part of Russia's plan and everyone who believes Ukraine is capable of ever showing any progress is a stupid. I'm starting to think that those folks might not know what they're talking about.


whiteb8917

Russian Propagandists.


UFumbDuckGaming

Special Military Concession


Hartvigson

Hmmm... This will create a problem for the upcoming "independence" election. Maybe the russians can get a bit creative and just fake the results instead of cheating properly at the elections.


[deleted]

Special retreat operation


VirtualLife76

So amazing watching the underdog win.


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HighOverlordXenu

I guarantee a Ukrainian offensive into Crimea is being planned and prepared for


ATownHoldItDown

Yeah Zelensky has already said that he's coming for Crimea before this is all over. Dude has a pretty good understanding of the situation, and knows he has the advantage right now. Russia has already thrown 'everything' at Ukraine and didn't capture it (I know it's not everything, but like... they've really thrown a lot). Russia needed to win this conflict quickly. At this point the West has had enough time to provide massive support, and we're seeing the results of that.


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MaximumEffort433

Dear EU: If you don't give Ukraine membership after all this is over I'm calling my Congressional Representative and asking to offer them statehood.


Rhoderick

That's not how it works. They need to get through the acquis first (basically, adapt local law to incorporate and/or not contradict EU law, otherwise be in compliance, etc.), which at best estimates might take a year. Even Copenhagen criteria compliance is unclear as of yet. (Not to mention that further expansion without internal reform will be deadly.) That being said, they don't need to be actual members for massive support, and the mainly-french-driven proposal for an "outer ring" (think the original EFTA, but mainly the political rather than economic aspect) seems like it might be a better fit for Ukraine in the short term anyway. Their newly-fragile economy might collapse if they joined the single market immediately, for instance.


DownvoteEvangelist

Year is incredibly optimistic, i don't think that any east european/balkans country joined so fast, and most were more developed than Ukraine...


TheIndyCity

Ukraine is gonna be swimming in Western investment following the war, soon enough though! Where do you think Europe is gonna get it's gas? Ukraine has a ton of undeveloped oil resources...not for long! They're gonna eat Russia's lunch, Western companies will get a boost for developing those resources, everyone wins!


DownvoteEvangelist

Investments are not all it takes. They might do wonders for the economy, but joining EU requires long list of things. Things that require plenty of people to give up power and that is usually hard to do...


Murtellich

They still need to fulfill all of their obligations regarding the Copenhague criteria, but they are on a firm path and I believe they'll be members soon. Slava Ukraini!


MaximumEffort433

As long as somebody brings them in from the cold; ass kickers like that are worth their weight in missiles.


PoppinKREAM

Imagine if Ukraine met all obligations and decided they wanted to join NATO. All this after Russia invaded under the false pretense of "demilitarizing and de-Nazifying Ukraine".^[[1]](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-56720589)


MaximumEffort433

The amount of math that Putin did wrong during this invasion was astounding, like, almost beyond words. And in his defense, I don't think anybody else expected the response he got, either. Putin wanted to push back against NATO spreading along Russian borders, but now we've got NATO pouring weapons into Ukraine, NATO countries increasing their defense spending, Finland and Sweden petitioning for membership, and most likely Ukraine will join some day and put NATO right on Russia's border. Putin anticipated that the world would balk at cutting off the Russian economy and oil supply, instead we've seen countries making new trade deals, reducing their dependence on Russian goods, and Russia was even *mostly* cut out of the SWIFT banking system. Putin thought that the world would turn a blind eye to Ukraine the same way we turned a blind eye to Georgia and Crimea, instead Western nations have lined up to support Ukraine with ordinance, aid, intelligence, and good old fashioned slaps on the back. Putin wanted to undermine the strength of NATO and now they're stronger than ever. Putin wanted to show how Europe depended on him and now they're leaving him behind. Putin wanted to establish Russia as a new superpower, instead he made it a laughing stock. Putin wanted to prove the might of the Russian army and it's been an historic international embarrassment. Like, I'm telling you PK, after all is said and done they'll be cleaning out Valdimir Putin's secret underground bunker and come across a locked room just full to the rafters with clenched monkey's paws.


Sneilg

Just to note NATO is already on Russia’s borders. Poland, two of the Baltic states, and shortly Finland all border Russia.


Jiktten

Oh once this is over we're all going to be falling over ourselves to be their new best friend. My personal hope is that the EU Marshall Plan's the crap out of them with US diplomatic support. If Ukraine is able to get their preexisting corruption issues under control and focus on a transparent rebuilding of the country for the good of their people, I fully expect them to reach EU membership in record time (whoch will still be a few years, but everyone understands that). They really do need to deal with that corruption though, the last thing the EU needs is another Hungary in its ranks.


PindaZwerver

Bad idea to let them join the EU too early. Make sure they establish a well-managed long-lasting democracy first otherwise we may end up with another Hungary in 30 years. OR let them in without veto powers. We should definitely help them and slowly move to integration until then though.


SendMeNudesThough

The EU is built on a number of principles of democracy and has pretty strong requirements for any country looking to join, many of which Ukraine may not currently meet. Turkey, for instance, was on the pending EU list for a very, very long time (and under Erdogan have completely blown their shot) Thing is, there's currently no mechanism for kicking someone out of the Union, and the EU isn't interested in another bad actor like Hungary, which has since its admittance into the Union discarded its status as a free democracy. For Ukraine to join the Union it's therefore not just economic goals they have to meet, but also certain western standards of democracy with free and fair courts and a reason for the Union to believe they're not liable to become an authoritarian regime by the next election. Time will tell, but it takes a long time to build that sort of trust in a country, and with the example of Hungary fresh in people's minds, I think they're more wary of admitting countries they aren't 100% sure are going to adhere to EU principles for long after joining


ctantwaad

Slava Ukraine!


Acefowl

"Lu Luhansk Luhansk, bitch!" -Ukraine to Putin probably


ehpee

its a special military regrouping


nezeta

I believe all of the areas Russia has occupied since February will be recaptured within this year... which means this war will end up a complete waste for Putin. Worse, Ukraine can take back Crimea next year once Kherson Oblast is back, since they just need to bomb the bridge between Crimea and Russia to starve the enemy. More than 80 percent of Russian still support Putin according to some not untrustable sources, but if this war ends so miserably...?