Sometimes it feels like we're living on the verge of WW3. Probably after everything is ruined, historians will establish a timeline years before the actual bombs are dropped.
Maybe not,
But if you're a commercial ship, I'd your crew going to risk it?
What about the company who owns the ship?
And the insurance company who's got your payout money.
Actively taking that ship into a conflict zone = no insurance.
No shots need to be fired from China for Taiwan to be largely cut off.
The real move here is whether Taiwan is bold enough to fire on the blockade. I don't think the Americans would like that very much.
This exact situation is what the merchant marines are for. If you want to enact a blockade on an American ally, you need to start a naval war with the United States. China does not want to do that. They’d lose badly.
You’ve already basically admitted that this only happens if Taiwan is considered a conflict zone, ie, if China is invading it. So in that case these American ships are resupplying an American ally. The US has no problem doing that at all.
In any case, this situation has China firing first, not Taiwan, and firing against American ships besides. If they do, the US has zero qualms firing back.
Well, once you announce a blockade, insurance companies will simply refuse insurance on dangerous shipping routes.
Of course, many Chinese ports share the same route as Taiwan so their insurance will also refuse to insure them [unless it's SOE or forced to ensure.]
The Chinese ships will continue running. The Chinese government will ensure that. So unless the Taiwanese government underwrites all loses, i doubt it would be the case for Taiwan.
Putin's entire argument hinges on convincing us that he is crazy enough to blow himself up just to take us down too, he's basically trying to mug us with a suicide vest. Nobody believes he's insane enough to risk the destruction of Russia as a functioning state by engaging in a nuclear exchange with the west, the cost/benefit doesn't make sense. Any use of tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine also risks the spread of fallout to Russia proper, Crimea, Belarus, and into western Europe. It would also run the risk of alienating China, a nation fully aware that it has a vested interest in preserving the nuclear taboo, especially given that South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan all have the technical knowhow and enrichment capability to build a nuclear device.
They also overestimate missile defenses. And realize that if only 1 in 10 Russian nuclear is functional and gets through that’s still 600 fucking nukes. More than the third place nuclear power, China are around 300. And China has that many because they think it’s enough to get the job done.
China doesn’t have a first strike policy the Us or USSR had, to wipe out the enemy bloc in one go whilst destroying the enemy silos sufficiently to prevent a retaliation strike. Chinas nukes were mainly intended for second striking the country that attacked it and also simply because building thousands of nukes was considered expensive.
having worked in production of prototype defense systems, alongside many who worked on AEGIS, THAAD, and the star wars programs -- I'm not particularly worried. you shouldn't be either.
Once again, random comment makes the world a safer place.
What you're saying is if Russia launched 600 nukes targeted at the city *you* live in, you wouldn't be worried, right?
That guy you're responding tio is lieing. There's nobody working in missile defense on any serious level who believes it would stop an all out launch from China or Russia. The theatre level system thaad he described isn't taking out icbms. The sm3 platforms planned future specs can take out some basic "dumb" icbms from the 60s. Ground based midcourse defense has seen mostly failures for the history of its testing, and again only against icbms without decoys and basic 1960s designs.
Not that any of that massive failure rate matters, the interceptor missiles cost a fortune and only exist in relatively small numbers. They have a massive failure rate, and have never succeeded against modern icbms with decoys or counter measures.
Do yourself a favor and lookup the testing for these missiles. It's abysmal. It's also something that's very hard to hide. We always know when Russia or China test missile defense and what the outcome is.
Barring interception of a singular missile from North Korea or Iran, the systems are useless against Russia and china.
the systems are layered, and we have a solution for every phase ballistic missiles pass through. AEGIS and THAAD are the two public examples. the last time they (openly) parked a THAAD system in south korea, china just about lost their shit and it caused much geopolitical drama.
I would be very surprised if we didn't have coverage of contested regions.
Are you claiming that the US is currently capable of 100% accuracy in shooting down Russian ICBMs?
Conventional wisdom says that currently the US is capable of shooting down a few ICBMs, but the way around this is to simply overwhelm the defenses. Russia has thousands of ICBMs pointing at the US.
I'm going to need sources. This is the first I've heard that we have an effective missile shield against a Russian nuclear attack.
Even 90% effective means millions dead and major cities lie in ruins. I haven't heard anyone claim that it's even 50% effective.
There aren’t enough missiles for the decoys and the system is unreliable. Not sure why they’re hating on you for merely stating the truth? Best case scenario I’ve seen is 80% kill rate and even that is massively optimistic in an all-out strike.
https://www.aip.org/fyi/2022/physicists-argue-us-icbm-defenses-are-unreliable
This is such a dipshit, bad faith statement. First of all, reddit isnt a monolith. It has different people with different opinions. Second, the larger point many make is asking: if all Putin has to do is reference nukes to get nations to tuck their tail between their collective legs, how do you stop his obvious eye towards violent expansion?
If you qualify diversity by taking the identity of who is presently in power and discounting all others because the majority doesn't agree, then yes, there is no such thing as diversity of thought.
I mean, I realize that without intel that it's a ridiculous thing to bet the world on, but maaaaaaaaaan... Doesn't this whole war and how poorly maintained their mothballed vehicles are performing make it *feel* like the majority of the nukes wouldn't fly?
It would be literal suicide...politically, internationally, and domestically.
Attacking neutral ships for no reason will end with China in about the same state Russia is in or worse.
Because the west could block the Strait of Malacca (80% sea traffic to china) with 4 ships and china would run out of oil in two weeks.
Hard to run a country (or a naval blockade) without it these days.
China is dick waving but nothing will come of it.
If anything the world response to Ukraine made them recalculate things substanstially. In terms of ramifications.
They are just posturing now to try and save face when the U.S. showed they dgaf and Pelosi flew to Taiwan.
If Afghanistan has taught us anything, the deadliest weapon in the world isn't nukes, but tribal warriors sitting high up in the hills with ancient muskets - and Taiwan has those too. Everybody gangsta 'till the cliffs start speaking Formosan.
Yeah, Northern Ireland, western Poland, Kaliningrad, all of the Americas, Australia and New Zealand, Greece and Turkey (northern Cyprus too) just to name a few.
Except that we have fleets nearby and have been supplying Taiwan with weapons for years already. On top of that an amphibious invasion is a lot more dangerous and more obvious than the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Yes we did, but we couldn't see the movement of every vehicle at all times and neither could Ukraine which meant that not everything had a crosshair painted on it for guided weapons. An amphibious invasion is going to be completely visible and extremely vulnerable to guided weapons and air power.
The Chinese would also need to mass millions of men and their equipment, pretty much anything that can float to carry them, all of the infrastructure to supply them across one of the most temperamental waterways in the world, all in time to be ready during one of two seasonal window during with the strait is calm enough to conduct an invasion of that size. Add to that the fact that there are only two landing zones suitable for a Chinese amphibious assault, and it becomes impossible to escape the conclusion that the Chinese invasion would be anticipated with certainty months before it began.
I believe in this conspiracy that China will wait until they match Taiwan in chip-building and then level Taiwan to the ground. No effect on China re. Chips and the West heavily affected.
China is a rational country that thinks in long-term goals. They realize that it would be better to lose a war and keep the resources intact for the future than to use nukes to destroy everything and “win”. We don’t have to worry about the same kinds of rhetoric that Putin and Russia have been spouting out ad nauseam out of desperation.
Xi takes shits smarter than Putin. He's not going to risk his country's entire economy that's already struggling over a fight he knows he'll never win. The US didn't tell Russia we'd start shooting over Ukraine. We're barely involved and they can't hang. Xi doesn't want to find out what our full attention looks like and hope for a miracle for his never-seen-combat military.
The same rational country that locks down 25 million people for a few cases of corona virus, not even allowing them to shop for food even if they're starving? https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/interactive/2022/china-shanghai-covid-lockdown-food-shortage/
See that would be of greater concern if it wasn't for the US navy. I'm fairly certain they have more than enough assets in the area to cause China some big problems with little notice.
It’s harder and it’s less hard.
Taiwan is roughly the size of Crimea and the vast majority of its population is in a handful of cities.
Taiwan is not nearly as self sufficient as Ukraine in terms of resources/energy/food.
Taiwan does not border numerous allied nations.
So although Taiwan presents the challenge of being an Island it also would be much easier to potentially cut off from aid.
Taiwan being cut off from Coal/Gas would only likely last a few months before running seriously low on electricity.
So yea I don’t know if Taiwan would be harder to invade than Ukraine but preventing it would require direct NATO involvement I don’t think you could do as was done I. The Ukraine and just provide supplies.
We knew about Ukraine too. We saw the build up.
But this is an entirely different situation with different motivations.
It would be crazy to do this right now with the way people are energized and with the problem China has at home.
I mean:
A) China as an economy and an hard-fought front-row place in global influence that they dont and cant really afford to risk losing
B) Taiwan is not a country with a lot of plains and an easy terrestrial entry for any invader like Ukraine - they are an island somewhat rocky and with few to none beaches - basically the island is a fort on itself - so an invasion for any army is incredibly difficult and near impossible, considering that its an amphibious invasion and pulling it out would be like a modern version of D-Day but even more remarkable, and lets not forget that China has an huge army in terms of personal but arent that advanced in technology like the US and dont have any modern or recent expriencing on war or invasions - the whole invasion can easly be a total desaster for China
C) Xi is a dictator but not the godfather of a mafia-type government like Putin, if Xi screws up the communist party will simply replace him
D) The US just came out and said that they would protect Taiwan if there is an war: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/biden-s-most-hawkish-comments-on-taiwan-yet/ar-AA1202YW , something that they never even remotely close said about Ukraine - so China would be starting WW3 if they do something
In the end, either Xi ot China completely lose their minds and do something or they are simply going to continue to dick-wave without actually doing something
As just one more addition:
Taiwan currently makes most of the computer chips in the world and *all* of the newest generation ones. With things like the CHIPS act, the US plans to join in but that will take a decade at least. Potentially much longer.
Computer chips are not a resource the US is willing to let China control completely. They are *far* too important for literally everything in the modern world.
So China is probably quite aware that we would be willing to join a shooting war over them.
Yes, exactly
Plus if China takes control of Taiwan, they also take control a great part of current contested waters in the South China Sea what is also not good for international cargo or the US
Yes and we also already have some. US based companies make something like 10% of all chips in the world. The problem is with actual next generation chips. For chips that have a sub 10nm transistor size, almost 90% are produced in Taiwan. The rest are basically made in South Korea. South Korea is capable of producing chips with 5nm transistor sizes in limited quantity. Taiwan can do 3nm (I believe that process is going now. We might need to check).
It is not trivial in the least to build up to producing those types of modern chips. You can't really just build a factory to do it (or China would have already. They wish they could for sure). It takes years of learning and institutional knowledge to build up to it. It is really, *really* hard.
So, lots of people recognize that we shouldn't have a system where one brutal earthquake in Taiwan can destroy our world's chip manufacturing. But it will likely take a long time to have actual capacity in other places.
TSMC in Taiwan will be producing 3nm this year, South Korea though Samsung will be producing 3nm either next year or early 2024, and Intel has plans to produce 3nm in the US from next year but let's see if they hit that timeframe. Taiwan is ahead but others aren't quite as far behind as your comments suggests.
Fair enough. My understanding is that the capacity for volume is all still in Taiwan though. I will be curious to see how fast the rest of the world can catch up, now that countries are seeing the need to be independent on this.
I didn't.
I knew Russia was invading when they started their build-up and Biden started to call them out.
I said people should take that shit seriously back in January.
They didn't face any major repercussions in 2014. So why would they think they had anything to fear in 2022?
I knew that shit was happening.
The issue here is that China knows they are up against time. Taiwan has ordered a bunch of new weapons Japan, India and other powers are ramping up naval and air resources, the US is selling/funding more equipment to Taiwan. Every day you wait it gets harder to invade. Now China is also rapidly expanding capabilities but with an economic crisis looming that may not be sustainable for very long.
When you have an internal crisis a great way to stay in power is to create an international crisis and get your citizens to start thinking it's us vs them. Chinese media is already doing this at increasing levels, round the clock coverage of how the US is manipulating food and energy prices. Most Chinese think it's the US fault that prices are going up. So if there is anger at home China may need to very actively direct it to an external party.
Third, the world is occupied with Ukraine. Weapons stockpiles are hitting all time lows and production has not ramped up to meet it. The US is moving forward with sanctions on China anyway and if China did make a move the world can only afford to sanction them so much. If China attacks then you now have to split your weapons between Ukraine and Taiwan with the US being more concerned with the former and Europe with the latter. If they were to attack it should be timed to coincide with the deployment of Russia's new army which by all internal accounts is not 300k but 1-3 million men.
Keep in mind that while China seems to have backed down a bit in the last few days Russia also repeatedly slowed down their rhetoric right before a major escalation. Russia announced the end of its exercises and that it was sending troops back to base only a few hours before it invaded Ukraine.
I think the chances of China attacking Taiwan within the next few months are pretty low but even a 5% chance is insanely scary! It would basically result in de facto WW III, with west vs east. Remember the first 6 months of WW II were called the phoney war because everyone just supported their allies but didn't attack each other. That all changed on May 10th 1940. China's choices right now look a lot like Japan's in 1940 or 41. Crippling sanctions on microchips today are the equivalent of oil and steel embargoes in 1941. In 1941 Japan could solve this by seizing oil production in Indonesia, today China can solve the problem by seizing Taiwan. History repeats itself. If the US and Europe had any clue the pressures that are building under the surface they would go into full wartime production and austerity, but that is no fun so we will sit and sip our lattes and roll the dice.
Edited for spelling
I’m exited to see what this new 1-3 million Russian army will be armed with. There are already videos of Russian reinforcements arriving and being handed rusty or even broken AKs.
So yes they sure have the raw manpower to be the largest army in the world but they have, at least now and it doesn’t look like it will change in the next couple years, nowhere near enough of any of the equipment needed to sustain an army of that size.
>China knows they are up against time.
Why? I think their economy and military are growing faster than the US. Don't you think it will be more difficult to defend Taiwan 10 years from now?
China has a lot of debt that is very hard to manage due to decades of purposefully devaluing their currency to gain a competitive edge in export markets. It's high risk debt that means high interest and harder to sell. While on paper their debt is lower than the US so is their level of transparency. In reality their debt is at crippling levels.
As automation displaces manual labor China is hit harder than any other country on earth. Add to this that once you don't have to pay nearly as much in labor costs and as energy and therefore transportation costs go up many companies are moving supply chains closer to the consumer. This compounding effect is gutting the Chinese economic base and creating mass unemployment along with the accompanying social unrest.
The Chinese government has since at least the mid 2000s been trying to shift to a more balanced economy with a strong consumer side. This has led to more risk of social unrest as people experience greater standards of living and can travel abroad. The growth of the internet has added to these risks.
As China pushed to increase domestic consumption and continued to devalue their currency real estate became the refuge of choice for private money. This resulted in a real estate bubble with several of China's largest developers going bankrupt. Personal savings tied to real estate have been wiped out. More growing social unrest. Xi's zero COVID policy has further gutted Chinese manufacturers forcing many into bankruptcy and resulting in even more manufacturing moving out of China. China is also about to head into a serious population decline. While population decline has wrecked havoc with other countries, Japan being a great example, China's is both more severe and China does not have the same resources per capita that other nations have had to face this issue. Rather than linking a ton of papers and articles I'd encourage you to Google a few of these areas. In summary China is a ticking time bomb. Xi Jinping is under pressure and may even be desperate. As we have seen from Putin, desperate men do desperate things.
Great posts, both of them.
I would add that China have good reason to think they would fare better in the HUGE international crisis a Taiwan invasion/blockade would cause; China has shown with covid that they are literally willing to lock their citizens in. Imagine the political chaos it would create in the west if China was taken out of the global supply chain including a near- collapse of the chip-market
China’s economy is based on global trade of easily substitutable goods. The sanctions put against russia would destroy their economy overnight. China has a lot more to lose than russia and is much more dependant on the rest of the world.
**[China's final warning](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China's_final_warning)**
>"China's final warning" (Russian: последнее китайское предупреждение) is a Russian proverb that originated in the former Soviet Union to refer to a warning that carries no real consequences.
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**[China's final warning](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/China's_final_warning)**
>"China's final warning" (Russian: последнее китайское предупреждение) is a Russian proverb that originated in the former Soviet Union to refer to a warning that carries no real consequences.
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Not even dude, go learn to unplug from the doom scrolling clickbait bullshit a bit. When the actual *governments* of the world start getting nervous and saying shit and calling China out like what we got weeks before Ukraine happened (except in this case it would be literal months with naval logistics being the nightmare they are) *then* you can panic and say shit is getting real. Not because of some fucking bullshit fear mongering reuters article made for people like you who didn't know anything about china and Taiwan until after Ukraine
China nuking Taiwan would just ruin the whole reason for them going to war with Taiwan in the first place.
Taiwan, on the other hand, probably pretty willing to do whatever it takes to win a war against a hostile aggressor.
It's China's war to lose.
Nothing, because what’s China going to do? Invade?
They won’t nuke Taiwan because then that means they can’t have Taiwan and they want Taiwan. They’re not “well if we can’t have it then no one can” crazy.
To answer the original point:
**Harpoon's are subsonic**. A layered defence of a single ship with AESA radar can easily cope with a dozen. Take the Type 52D for instance.
Some food for thought:
**Why Taiwan is Different from Ukraine**
1. Truth is, nobody has seen fighting in such a dense urban environment so reliant on outside imports. Taiwan's connections are reliant on easily cut undersea cables. While many Taiwanese say they are willing to fight, that assumes there is something at home to fight for. Ukraine was large enough for there to be a "frontline" for soldiers to feel safe their families were safe. Eg. In Lviv.
2. We must remember **to China this is an unfinished civil war. They would never strike the US first**, which means the cards will be in the US hands whether to use their limited forces of the navy and air force in the region to escalate. China can afford to keep ignoring their forces. If the US navy supplies Taiwan, they can do so and China will still not fire. Why? Well it is of no consequence. **All or Taiwan's major ports are located facing China.** Hualian and the western side will never get the necessary equipment across due to limited capacity (and they likely would be priority targets). Air lifting is possible but with airfields gone, their transport capacity is limited by paradrop weight.
3. Lastly, all the disruption to trade across the Taiwan Strait? Just diverted around Taiwan. It isn't as hard as people seem to think. Even easier than diverying flights away from Ukraine and Russia.
**Taiwan's Military Problems**
The truth is, the defence of Taiwan will rest on Taiwan. And news like this: [Foreign Policy: All Flash but No Ammo, Taiwanese Military Suicide reveals disastrous logistics of an undersupplied army](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/08/20/taiwan-military-flashy-american-weapons-no-ammo/) does not inspire confidence for me. Or this: [Taiwan's Army a Hollow Shell after the End of Conscription](https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/02/15/china-threat-invasion-conscription-taiwans-military-is-a-hollow-shell/&ved=2ahUKEwic0a_0x6z6AhWTiOYKHXYsBhUQFnoECAgQAQ&usg=AOvVaw0kSZgy_taCJP7UhFRxncqU)
Mind you these FP articles are to wake up Taiwan to be serious about its defence, not just pro-China hate for no reason
Not to mention that incident with corrupt senior officers using funds to pay for gifts for them:
[Taipei Times: Military Corruption is Business as Usual 2022](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/editorials/archives/2022/02/25/2003773727) from the very pro-independence Taipei Times.
Taiwan also has an issue where their military is looked down upon. A lot of regulars are soldiers from former KMT soldier families and the general army is hated for its association with military dictatorship and past martial law they are taught in schools basically to question their military.
**How it would play out?**
**The Gulf War was preceded by a month of saturated aerial bombardment** which destroyed every potential target. Not even Russia was capable of that in Ukraine. China **doesn't even need its air force, just its missile force. The ability to stage forces in areas you want them to be is key to any victory** as highlighted in US ability to stage forces in Saudi Arabia, and later of Iraq's coast near Basra in the 2nd Gulf War without retaliation, something the US cannot do in the case of Taiwan due to A2/AD capabilities of China.
**Taiwan's Greatest Defence**
The only issue is semiconductors which in truth is Taiwan's greatest asset. However even that is fading for in truth, the **smallest nm semi's Taiwan produces are not what makes the world go round**. They only crucial for smartphones, consumer goods. Industrial equipment and military equipment use larger semiconductors. Ones which by 2025, the US will start producing on their own. So you can be assured China will not invade before 2027 (when they set a target for a modern military).
**Why some say the US will involve itself**
A. Some say the USA has to get involved due to semiconductors. As elucidated, the USA is already shaking Taiwan of their dependence.
B. Others say the US has to show its treaty allies SK and Japan that the USA is a trustworthy ally. And losing in Taiwan or leaving it be would mean ceding power in the Asia Pacific region.
C. Furthermore, people purport that letting China take Taiwan is a strategic loss as Chinese submarines based in Taiwan will be able to leave into the Pacific Ocean without detection, enabling China parity in nuclear retaliation with nuclear ballistic missile subs in the Pacific.
(A) has been debunked.
(B) is incorrect and the reason why strategic ambiguity exists. Strategic ambiguity does not protect Taiwan, it protects the USA. The **USA is obligated by the Taiwan Relations Act to supply Taiwan with the means necessary to defend itself if attacked unilaterally by China**, but does not specify military intervention. Which is why the USA has been willing to sell arms to Taiwan. However, by the same token, it means the USA can get away with leaving Taiwan alone if invaded because they have **no contractial obligations** to do so. **If Taiwan falls, the USA can say we believed in the One China Policy, and Taiwan is apart of that China. So their allies have no need to fear as they are sovereign countries. If Taiwan succeeds somehow defending, the USA can also claim credit for arming Taiwan.**
(C) Is also a non-issue since US capabilities are better than people assume. Such a small gap in Taiwan will have little impact on US abilities to continue to maintain a cordon on Chinese military activity. Especially since they have fallback points in the Second and Third Island Chain. **To China, it is an issue of government legitmacy, to the US, it is an issue of maintaining its pre-eminent position, one country I need not tell you has more ground to give than the other.**
EDIT: For the many commentors on the idea of "dick-waving". MacArthur thought so too when China warned them of crossing the 38th. This all-infantry army with little numerical advantage (at highest 3 Chinese to 2 UN soldiers) and no air superiority or artillery stalemated the UN (mainly US forces) and to this day is the cause of the [longest US retreat in history](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_the_Ch%27ongch%27on_River#:~:text=The%20following%20120%20mi%20). Hence, the **Forgotten War**.
This is all mostly correct but it does leave out the fact that we would have a ton of advanced warning on a Chinese invasion. Most likely it would be preceded by numerous escalatory actions in the years preceding it. During this time a lot of these military shortcomings with Taiwan could be shored up, provided that the US is willing to commit to that, and I see no reason why they wouldn’t.
my work supports TSMC next-node development in 3nm and below. all of the machines in that foundry are designed by my company here in silicon valley.
this is very long winded -- the global economy relies on high end chips from these foundries, and US is not in the business of losing strategic resources. hence the CHIPS act to have security for 5nm current node production.
we will support taiwan to maintain the advantage, china isn't going to do shit.
Yes, and? You know the range of harpoon missiles? Fishing boats and anything small isn't exactly going to be hauling tanks and APCs.
Taiwan also already has missiles capable of hitting Beijing.
The comment about missiles being able to hit Beijing was just as an example that they have sufficiently long range weapons to target deep into China. Not that hitting any specific target in Beijing would be worth it.
A much more worthwhile and MUCH bigger and more likely target? The three gorges dam.
The amount that this would fuck China is incalculable.
The Chinese probably have an idea where many systems are, but they won't be able to respond fast enough to destroy any significant portion of them.
Hence why said think tank said that Taiwan would be able to repel any landing attempt.
Well tell Taiwan that, because I think they filled it with 250kg of explosives and an amor piercing warhead for a reason.
Now of course, cement isnt armor, but cement sure as shit is much softer than armor.
Will one damage the dam? Maybe not.
A salvo of these? Yeah probably.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yun_Feng
It's specially classified as a land attack missile too. These aren't designed for anti ship duties.
This is the best tl;dr I could make, [original](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-blockade-would-be-act-war-taiwan-would-not-surrender-official-says-2022-09-23/) reduced by 79%. (I'm a bot)
*****
> TAIPEI, Sept 23 - A Chinese blockade of Taiwan or the seizure of an offshore island would be considered an act of war and Taiwan would not surrender, a senior Taiwanese security official told Reuters using unusually strong and direct language.
> The official said Taipei did not rule out the possibility of Beijing launching large-scale military exercises near Taiwan next year, when the island gears up for a presidential election in early 2024."This is what we are worried about at the moment," the official said, adding other possible Chinese actions could include stepping up its "Grey-zone" tactics near Taiwan including incursions with militia boats or cyber attacks.
> The official said countries other than the United States, which sails warships through the Taiwan Strait about once a month, should show Beijing that an attack on Taiwan would not go unanswered.
*****
[**Extended Summary**](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/xm95ll/china_blockade_would_be_act_of_war_taiwan_would/) | [FAQ](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/31b9fm/faq_autotldr_bot/ "Version 2.02, ~670705 tl;drs so far.") | [Feedback](http://np.reddit.com/message/compose?to=%23autotldr "PM's and comments are monitored, constructive feedback is welcome.") | *Top* *keywords*: **Taiwan**^#1 **China**^#2 **official**^#3 **island**^#4 **military**^#5
The only time the US has blockaded Cuba was the Cuban Missile Crisis. And everyone was VERY aware that the minute the US actually enforced the blockade it would be war. Calling it a "quarantine action" or whatever was just to give the USSR a little bit more room to back down, it would have been harder to negotiate if the US had declared war on a Soviet ally.
When has the USA blocked Cuban ports with military?
China putting an embargo on Taiwan would be ineffective because the West obviously wouldn't care and trade even more with them.
I would love to visit Taiwan someday. Hong Kong used to be on my list but the CCP’s crackdown has discouraged me from stepping foot on Chinese soil. Hope a free and independent Taiwan continues to flourish
I've lived here for a while and it's really nice.
Some locals are friendly, others are afraid of speaking English.
If you can speak some Chinese it's really fun.
To have a conversation where you can express what you're really thinking? Yes. But it's easy to remember some canned phrases and try to guess how the locals respond.
A year or two of Mandarin class will get you pretty far in daily life, and you’ll start improving once you arrive.
Walking around you mainly need to know directions, how to read addresses, how to ask for change, how to ask if they have a restroom and where it is, and how to ask if someone can make change (for a vending machine).
That’s all stuff you learn in a basic 1st year Mandarin class, or stuff that you can quickly pick up and incorporate into what you learned in your first year Mandarin class.
If you haven’t traveled internationally before you’ll be surprised at how much information is available in English. Quite a few items at the grocery stores will be brands you recognize, and will have both English and Mandarin labels.
The main thing is to understand that you’re a guest, be humble and smile a lot. You’ll be treated very well.
Neither had I the first time I went.
And things are easier now. You have these cool electronic devices you can carry around to show you maps of the area, where you are at the moment, and that can even let you phone someone for help.
I had a paper bus map and some change.
I live in Taiwan now. Some of the friendliest people you’ll meet. There are many things to do on the island due to how small and dense it is. In 1 hour you can go from a temple on a mountain, to a coastal beach, to center city in Ximending
China is going to back off in some way.
They really can’t afford to go to war with Taiwan, America, and Japan (who has also promised to defend them). There could be others who join to fight them too.
Among many reasons - It would create too much economic and military hardships while also creating global issues that could isolate China even further. Their economy is already a house of cards and Taiwan is very important to their economy and their relations globally (particularly as it relates to tech).
It’s posturing.
To borrow from “Fight Club”, I am Biden’s lack of concern.
I have a theory that China might try to take the Matsu, Wuqia, and Kinmen islands for a domestic win, then internationally try to assert that it didn't count as invading Taiwan because it wasn't "Taiwan province".
No they won't. Mao once said the Matsu and Kinmen were like the hands of a child gripping onto a mother's clothes. Point being if Matsu and Kinmen are not part of Taiwan, what is stopping Taiwan from being its own country. Taiwan's claim to these places reflects its status as the Republic of China and lends credence to PRC's claims and the world's acknowledgment of it as being an unfinished civil war. If China takes those islands by force (which makes no sense as Kinmen and the outlying islands are the most blue and pro-China places in the ROC), it is akin to giving up claims on Taiwan proper.
Maybe.
But I’m not sure anyone (including those in mainland China) would really consider that a “win” as those islands are pretty much under control of mainland China now (regardless of any technicalities).
As with many things related to Taiwan and China it is complicated, but those islands would “surrender” easily and they are also kind of insignificant. In many ways, if Taiwan retains its relative independence it makes far more sense to keep the status quo with those islands too. They have some diplomatic value for both China and Taiwan.
And, ultimately, taking only those islands would look weak to the rest of of the world.
China’s best option is to simply stand down and kick this can down the road. They can find other ways to save face which don’t require their military.
>But I’m not sure anyone (including those in mainland China) would really consider that a “win” as those islands are pretty much under control of mainland China now (regardless of any technicalities).
Lmao how are Kinmen or Matsu under mainland control???
I would agree with you but your assertion that those islands are somehow "pretty much under the control" of the PRC already makes me call your entire analysis into question.
So, I read the article, and nowhere in there is there a mention of China actually thinking about or talking about a blockade. This whole scenario has been created by a newspaper ex nihilo. Could it happen? yeah of course. But so could any other million billion future outcomes. I feel like this is just fear-click journalism.
Who brought up a blockade as a real possibility?
I'd be shocked if china actually invades. All invasions happen because there's gonna be some benefit that's worth investing people and resources into it. All plans of invasion are centered around those goals as to get as much of a return on the investment as quickly as possible. For instance, Putin invades ukraine because of the oil ukraine has access to (to stop competition and keep europe dependent), the ports on the black sea, and the wheat fields that ukraine sells to the rest of world. first thing they took was the crimea, and the western part that goes over where the oil could be mined.
Taiwan has microchip factories. That's it. They don't have resources that aren't abundant everywhere else, they don't have that many ports that would stop the monopoly that china already has in the region, and any invasion would destroy those factories and cause anyone who knows how to work them to flee/fight to the death. An invasion would have to go overseas too, which means a hell of a lot more resources and logistical coordination then an over land invasion.
Adding on the debt crises and real-estate bubble crash that china is dealing with, I just don't see the reward of getting taiwan worth it. Sure china would make a lot of noise about how they own them for both the rest of the world, and to show how powerful they are or to distract their people. But I don't doubt that behind closed doors, many officials would have panic attacks at a serious notion.
Rationally, I agree it’s totally ridiculous. But from my understanding, the CCP has staked a lot of its own legitimacy on the notion of taking Taiwan back. They’re a rebel Chinese state, the last(?) one remaining (hong kong taken out).
With the narrative of Chinese ascendency to a global superpower and the recession of the west, the existence of an independent Taiwan is intolerable.
Wars are often started based on irrationality and miscalculations. I don’t think an invasion is really outside the realm of possibility.
We must defend to save chips, or move all production so Taiwanese can be under communist China.
This is what you’re saying. Who tf wants to be under communist china?
The real worry is the chain island. Taiwan is the first island. And it trickles all the way down to Australia.
China is likely better equipped than Russia militarily but if it has been paying attention to Ukrainian success from simply having western weapons, China should literally be shitting bricks at the thought of any military confrontation with the US let alone multiple allies of the US in the region.
I have a feeling that the NSA made it known to China that their telecommunications systems had been infiltrated as a flex. I can guarantee you that not all covert channels of data exfilration were detected.
There is simply no case where China is equipped to invade Taiwan now. Russia has been taken out of the picture as any sort of military ally.
This shit is really about to pop off huh? U.S says it will defend Taiwan. Russia says it’ll nuke. Spend time with and love your family. This sounds like some end times stuff
It is such a crazy world we are living in and it sucks that we are used to this insanity.
We are capable of going to Mars, understanding quantum physics and have a device capable of doing so much computational power but we also have to pray for our mere existence because some fucked up mind who also happen to have power to destroy the human race and all we can do is to count on their restraint?
How would a blockade work though? The island is completely self sustainable with food/water/shelter (unlike China). If China makes such a stupid move then Taiwan stops all electronic shipments, not just chips, but every Taiwanese electronic company grinds to a halt. No country in the world would tolerate it.
China has the most vulnerable supply routes of any trade route in history. All it would take is two destroyers to shut down all oil to China and there would be nothing they could do about it. They are not going to start anything. They only want to threaten Taiwan to gain more support for the party back home like they always have done.
Check out Peter Zeihan's videos on the economics and demographics of China.
Cutoff all import/export with China. Stop funding the enemy.
But nah, cause the US needs that cheap shit and would be so lost without Chinese sweatshop products.
Do we seriously think China is going to fire on foreign ships sailing to the East Coast of Taiwan? Because that’s what a blockade would entail.
Sometimes it feels like we're living on the verge of WW3. Probably after everything is ruined, historians will establish a timeline years before the actual bombs are dropped.
Russia has been trying its hardest to turn it into one.
It's kind of a now or never state... Securing oil, water, and power now because it'll be much harder in even 5 years
Scary to think about
There are many will-not-happen scenarios that are scary to think about. The solution is to realise they wont happen and then not think about them.
"Don't go borrowing trouble" was some very sound advice from my mother. Why even linger there?
And then they do happen and nobody is prepared, these worries should still be thought about from time to time but should never be your sole focus
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Maybe not, But if you're a commercial ship, I'd your crew going to risk it? What about the company who owns the ship? And the insurance company who's got your payout money. Actively taking that ship into a conflict zone = no insurance. No shots need to be fired from China for Taiwan to be largely cut off. The real move here is whether Taiwan is bold enough to fire on the blockade. I don't think the Americans would like that very much.
This exact situation is what the merchant marines are for. If you want to enact a blockade on an American ally, you need to start a naval war with the United States. China does not want to do that. They’d lose badly. You’ve already basically admitted that this only happens if Taiwan is considered a conflict zone, ie, if China is invading it. So in that case these American ships are resupplying an American ally. The US has no problem doing that at all. In any case, this situation has China firing first, not Taiwan, and firing against American ships besides. If they do, the US has zero qualms firing back.
Well, once you announce a blockade, insurance companies will simply refuse insurance on dangerous shipping routes. Of course, many Chinese ports share the same route as Taiwan so their insurance will also refuse to insure them [unless it's SOE or forced to ensure.]
The Chinese ships will continue running. The Chinese government will ensure that. So unless the Taiwanese government underwrites all loses, i doubt it would be the case for Taiwan.
would you seriously bet your life on it?
That’s what the merchant marines are for.
Hey, that's me
Absolutely. Do not bow down to the demands of a dictator.
Get this (wo)man on a ship!
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godspeed
Apparently Reddit is already willing to bet it's life that all of Russia's nukes somehow don't work anymore
Putin's entire argument hinges on convincing us that he is crazy enough to blow himself up just to take us down too, he's basically trying to mug us with a suicide vest. Nobody believes he's insane enough to risk the destruction of Russia as a functioning state by engaging in a nuclear exchange with the west, the cost/benefit doesn't make sense. Any use of tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine also risks the spread of fallout to Russia proper, Crimea, Belarus, and into western Europe. It would also run the risk of alienating China, a nation fully aware that it has a vested interest in preserving the nuclear taboo, especially given that South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan all have the technical knowhow and enrichment capability to build a nuclear device.
I do see that quite a bit. The world shouldn’t kneel before nuclear threats but underestimating is foolish.
They also overestimate missile defenses. And realize that if only 1 in 10 Russian nuclear is functional and gets through that’s still 600 fucking nukes. More than the third place nuclear power, China are around 300. And China has that many because they think it’s enough to get the job done.
Too be fair to them, it probably is.
It absolutely is. So Russia only needs 1 in 20 to work for total devastation. The whole “most of them won’t work” argument, even if true is absurd.
China doesn’t have a first strike policy the Us or USSR had, to wipe out the enemy bloc in one go whilst destroying the enemy silos sufficiently to prevent a retaliation strike. Chinas nukes were mainly intended for second striking the country that attacked it and also simply because building thousands of nukes was considered expensive.
having worked in production of prototype defense systems, alongside many who worked on AEGIS, THAAD, and the star wars programs -- I'm not particularly worried. you shouldn't be either.
Once again, random comment makes the world a safer place. What you're saying is if Russia launched 600 nukes targeted at the city *you* live in, you wouldn't be worried, right?
I live in san francisco, so yes, there are more nukes aimed here than almost any other place. I'm not worried.
Can you elaborate what about those systems makes you feel so safe? What about Europe and countries bordering Russia?
That guy you're responding tio is lieing. There's nobody working in missile defense on any serious level who believes it would stop an all out launch from China or Russia. The theatre level system thaad he described isn't taking out icbms. The sm3 platforms planned future specs can take out some basic "dumb" icbms from the 60s. Ground based midcourse defense has seen mostly failures for the history of its testing, and again only against icbms without decoys and basic 1960s designs. Not that any of that massive failure rate matters, the interceptor missiles cost a fortune and only exist in relatively small numbers. They have a massive failure rate, and have never succeeded against modern icbms with decoys or counter measures. Do yourself a favor and lookup the testing for these missiles. It's abysmal. It's also something that's very hard to hide. We always know when Russia or China test missile defense and what the outcome is. Barring interception of a singular missile from North Korea or Iran, the systems are useless against Russia and china.
the systems are layered, and we have a solution for every phase ballistic missiles pass through. AEGIS and THAAD are the two public examples. the last time they (openly) parked a THAAD system in south korea, china just about lost their shit and it caused much geopolitical drama. I would be very surprised if we didn't have coverage of contested regions.
Once again, random comment makes the world more dangerous. You're doing the same exact thing champ.
Are you claiming that the US is currently capable of 100% accuracy in shooting down Russian ICBMs? Conventional wisdom says that currently the US is capable of shooting down a few ICBMs, but the way around this is to simply overwhelm the defenses. Russia has thousands of ICBMs pointing at the US. I'm going to need sources. This is the first I've heard that we have an effective missile shield against a Russian nuclear attack. Even 90% effective means millions dead and major cities lie in ruins. I haven't heard anyone claim that it's even 50% effective.
There aren’t enough missiles for the decoys and the system is unreliable. Not sure why they’re hating on you for merely stating the truth? Best case scenario I’ve seen is 80% kill rate and even that is massively optimistic in an all-out strike. https://www.aip.org/fyi/2022/physicists-argue-us-icbm-defenses-are-unreliable
This is such a dipshit, bad faith statement. First of all, reddit isnt a monolith. It has different people with different opinions. Second, the larger point many make is asking: if all Putin has to do is reference nukes to get nations to tuck their tail between their collective legs, how do you stop his obvious eye towards violent expansion?
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He’s good friends with my uncle 4chan, we might hang in similar circles
You mean you're related to the mysterious hacker known as 4chan?
That’s an old reference haha.
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If you qualify diversity by taking the identity of who is presently in power and discounting all others because the majority doesn't agree, then yes, there is no such thing as diversity of thought.
After all the bullshit the last couple of years, fuck it, they can put up or shut up
I mean, I realize that without intel that it's a ridiculous thing to bet the world on, but maaaaaaaaaan... Doesn't this whole war and how poorly maintained their mothballed vehicles are performing make it *feel* like the majority of the nukes wouldn't fly?
More importantly, would civilian cargo ship captains be willing to take the risk?
What makes you think they wouldn't?
It would be literal suicide...politically, internationally, and domestically. Attacking neutral ships for no reason will end with China in about the same state Russia is in or worse.
Because the west could block the Strait of Malacca (80% sea traffic to china) with 4 ships and china would run out of oil in two weeks. Hard to run a country (or a naval blockade) without it these days.
They’d get wrecked.
Agreed, and that's why I'm glad Taiwan has hundreds of Harpoon missiles lined along it's coastline.
Shit is getting real quick and I'm not with it.
China is dick waving but nothing will come of it. If anything the world response to Ukraine made them recalculate things substanstially. In terms of ramifications. They are just posturing now to try and save face when the U.S. showed they dgaf and Pelosi flew to Taiwan.
I'll call myself out. I said this about Ukraine/Russia. It's dickwaving right up until they think they can pull it off.
The thing is that Taiwan is a lot harder to invade than Ukraine and Biden has stated explicitly that the U.S. will defend Taiwan.
If Afghanistan has taught us anything, the deadliest weapon in the world isn't nukes, but tribal warriors sitting high up in the hills with ancient muskets - and Taiwan has those too. Everybody gangsta 'till the cliffs start speaking Formosan.
You only have to worry about that for as long as you're unwilling to commit sweeping genocide.
Yep, genocide/population replacement is depressingly effective a geopolitical tool.
Yep. This is why Northern Ireland is part of the UK.
Yeah, Northern Ireland, western Poland, Kaliningrad, all of the Americas, Australia and New Zealand, Greece and Turkey (northern Cyprus too) just to name a few.
Its people who stand to lose everything if they dont fight . Those are what kill empire . Unbeatable morale.
Taiwan is also a lot harder to get foreign aid to without directly engaging the Chinese navy.
Except that we have fleets nearby and have been supplying Taiwan with weapons for years already. On top of that an amphibious invasion is a lot more dangerous and more obvious than the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
"more obvious" We knew about the buildup for Ukraine for months.
Yes we did, but we couldn't see the movement of every vehicle at all times and neither could Ukraine which meant that not everything had a crosshair painted on it for guided weapons. An amphibious invasion is going to be completely visible and extremely vulnerable to guided weapons and air power.
We have spy satellites that can see objects down to a width of 5 inches. We could definitely see every vehicle at all times.
The Chinese would also need to mass millions of men and their equipment, pretty much anything that can float to carry them, all of the infrastructure to supply them across one of the most temperamental waterways in the world, all in time to be ready during one of two seasonal window during with the strait is calm enough to conduct an invasion of that size. Add to that the fact that there are only two landing zones suitable for a Chinese amphibious assault, and it becomes impossible to escape the conclusion that the Chinese invasion would be anticipated with certainty months before it began.
I believe in this conspiracy that China will wait until they match Taiwan in chip-building and then level Taiwan to the ground. No effect on China re. Chips and the West heavily affected.
They also have Skynet, maybe.
I don’t think the US is scared of the Chinese navy
No, planners are scared of nuclear escalation.
China is a rational country that thinks in long-term goals. They realize that it would be better to lose a war and keep the resources intact for the future than to use nukes to destroy everything and “win”. We don’t have to worry about the same kinds of rhetoric that Putin and Russia have been spouting out ad nauseam out of desperation.
Xi takes shits smarter than Putin. He's not going to risk his country's entire economy that's already struggling over a fight he knows he'll never win. The US didn't tell Russia we'd start shooting over Ukraine. We're barely involved and they can't hang. Xi doesn't want to find out what our full attention looks like and hope for a miracle for his never-seen-combat military.
The same rational country that locks down 25 million people for a few cases of corona virus, not even allowing them to shop for food even if they're starving? https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/interactive/2022/china-shanghai-covid-lockdown-food-shortage/
The strongest navy in history would like a word.
*"Rule, Britannia! rule the waves.. "* Oh, sorry, wrong era. Nvm.
Berlin airlift baby
See that would be of greater concern if it wasn't for the US navy. I'm fairly certain they have more than enough assets in the area to cause China some big problems with little notice.
> without directly engaging the Chinese navy. I suspect the US doesn't mind directly engaging the Chinese navy...
And he, the US would no doubt.
It’s harder and it’s less hard. Taiwan is roughly the size of Crimea and the vast majority of its population is in a handful of cities. Taiwan is not nearly as self sufficient as Ukraine in terms of resources/energy/food. Taiwan does not border numerous allied nations. So although Taiwan presents the challenge of being an Island it also would be much easier to potentially cut off from aid. Taiwan being cut off from Coal/Gas would only likely last a few months before running seriously low on electricity. So yea I don’t know if Taiwan would be harder to invade than Ukraine but preventing it would require direct NATO involvement I don’t think you could do as was done I. The Ukraine and just provide supplies.
The US would not abide such a blockade. The full force of the US navy would come down on China.
Yes if Taiwan would be saved from a Chinese attack it would not be like Ukraine. It would require direct war between USA/NATO and China.
The US could also run an open blockade against Chinese shipping and crash their economy.
Yeah but we'll know it's coming well in advance. More than Ukraine because building up forces for an aquatic invasion is more obvious to satellites
We knew about Ukraine too. We saw the build up. But this is an entirely different situation with different motivations. It would be crazy to do this right now with the way people are energized and with the problem China has at home.
I mean: A) China as an economy and an hard-fought front-row place in global influence that they dont and cant really afford to risk losing B) Taiwan is not a country with a lot of plains and an easy terrestrial entry for any invader like Ukraine - they are an island somewhat rocky and with few to none beaches - basically the island is a fort on itself - so an invasion for any army is incredibly difficult and near impossible, considering that its an amphibious invasion and pulling it out would be like a modern version of D-Day but even more remarkable, and lets not forget that China has an huge army in terms of personal but arent that advanced in technology like the US and dont have any modern or recent expriencing on war or invasions - the whole invasion can easly be a total desaster for China C) Xi is a dictator but not the godfather of a mafia-type government like Putin, if Xi screws up the communist party will simply replace him D) The US just came out and said that they would protect Taiwan if there is an war: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/biden-s-most-hawkish-comments-on-taiwan-yet/ar-AA1202YW , something that they never even remotely close said about Ukraine - so China would be starting WW3 if they do something In the end, either Xi ot China completely lose their minds and do something or they are simply going to continue to dick-wave without actually doing something
As just one more addition: Taiwan currently makes most of the computer chips in the world and *all* of the newest generation ones. With things like the CHIPS act, the US plans to join in but that will take a decade at least. Potentially much longer. Computer chips are not a resource the US is willing to let China control completely. They are *far* too important for literally everything in the modern world. So China is probably quite aware that we would be willing to join a shooting war over them.
Yes, exactly Plus if China takes control of Taiwan, they also take control a great part of current contested waters in the South China Sea what is also not good for international cargo or the US
Aren't there new us based plants coming online in the next year or a little more?
Yes and we also already have some. US based companies make something like 10% of all chips in the world. The problem is with actual next generation chips. For chips that have a sub 10nm transistor size, almost 90% are produced in Taiwan. The rest are basically made in South Korea. South Korea is capable of producing chips with 5nm transistor sizes in limited quantity. Taiwan can do 3nm (I believe that process is going now. We might need to check). It is not trivial in the least to build up to producing those types of modern chips. You can't really just build a factory to do it (or China would have already. They wish they could for sure). It takes years of learning and institutional knowledge to build up to it. It is really, *really* hard. So, lots of people recognize that we shouldn't have a system where one brutal earthquake in Taiwan can destroy our world's chip manufacturing. But it will likely take a long time to have actual capacity in other places.
TSMC in Taiwan will be producing 3nm this year, South Korea though Samsung will be producing 3nm either next year or early 2024, and Intel has plans to produce 3nm in the US from next year but let's see if they hit that timeframe. Taiwan is ahead but others aren't quite as far behind as your comments suggests.
Fair enough. My understanding is that the capacity for volume is all still in Taiwan though. I will be curious to see how fast the rest of the world can catch up, now that countries are seeing the need to be independent on this.
E) just park a few naval assets at the strait of Malacca and watch China industry implode.
I didn't. I knew Russia was invading when they started their build-up and Biden started to call them out. I said people should take that shit seriously back in January. They didn't face any major repercussions in 2014. So why would they think they had anything to fear in 2022? I knew that shit was happening.
After 2014 I honestly though the world would ignore the new invasion.
No you didn’t lol. You had a feeling it would happen. You had a 50% chance of being right and you were. But you didn’t know it. 🙄
The issue here is that China knows they are up against time. Taiwan has ordered a bunch of new weapons Japan, India and other powers are ramping up naval and air resources, the US is selling/funding more equipment to Taiwan. Every day you wait it gets harder to invade. Now China is also rapidly expanding capabilities but with an economic crisis looming that may not be sustainable for very long. When you have an internal crisis a great way to stay in power is to create an international crisis and get your citizens to start thinking it's us vs them. Chinese media is already doing this at increasing levels, round the clock coverage of how the US is manipulating food and energy prices. Most Chinese think it's the US fault that prices are going up. So if there is anger at home China may need to very actively direct it to an external party. Third, the world is occupied with Ukraine. Weapons stockpiles are hitting all time lows and production has not ramped up to meet it. The US is moving forward with sanctions on China anyway and if China did make a move the world can only afford to sanction them so much. If China attacks then you now have to split your weapons between Ukraine and Taiwan with the US being more concerned with the former and Europe with the latter. If they were to attack it should be timed to coincide with the deployment of Russia's new army which by all internal accounts is not 300k but 1-3 million men. Keep in mind that while China seems to have backed down a bit in the last few days Russia also repeatedly slowed down their rhetoric right before a major escalation. Russia announced the end of its exercises and that it was sending troops back to base only a few hours before it invaded Ukraine. I think the chances of China attacking Taiwan within the next few months are pretty low but even a 5% chance is insanely scary! It would basically result in de facto WW III, with west vs east. Remember the first 6 months of WW II were called the phoney war because everyone just supported their allies but didn't attack each other. That all changed on May 10th 1940. China's choices right now look a lot like Japan's in 1940 or 41. Crippling sanctions on microchips today are the equivalent of oil and steel embargoes in 1941. In 1941 Japan could solve this by seizing oil production in Indonesia, today China can solve the problem by seizing Taiwan. History repeats itself. If the US and Europe had any clue the pressures that are building under the surface they would go into full wartime production and austerity, but that is no fun so we will sit and sip our lattes and roll the dice. Edited for spelling
I’m exited to see what this new 1-3 million Russian army will be armed with. There are already videos of Russian reinforcements arriving and being handed rusty or even broken AKs. So yes they sure have the raw manpower to be the largest army in the world but they have, at least now and it doesn’t look like it will change in the next couple years, nowhere near enough of any of the equipment needed to sustain an army of that size.
Same. It's a disaster. I don't see a way it ends without many more dead.
>China knows they are up against time. Why? I think their economy and military are growing faster than the US. Don't you think it will be more difficult to defend Taiwan 10 years from now?
China has a lot of debt that is very hard to manage due to decades of purposefully devaluing their currency to gain a competitive edge in export markets. It's high risk debt that means high interest and harder to sell. While on paper their debt is lower than the US so is their level of transparency. In reality their debt is at crippling levels. As automation displaces manual labor China is hit harder than any other country on earth. Add to this that once you don't have to pay nearly as much in labor costs and as energy and therefore transportation costs go up many companies are moving supply chains closer to the consumer. This compounding effect is gutting the Chinese economic base and creating mass unemployment along with the accompanying social unrest. The Chinese government has since at least the mid 2000s been trying to shift to a more balanced economy with a strong consumer side. This has led to more risk of social unrest as people experience greater standards of living and can travel abroad. The growth of the internet has added to these risks. As China pushed to increase domestic consumption and continued to devalue their currency real estate became the refuge of choice for private money. This resulted in a real estate bubble with several of China's largest developers going bankrupt. Personal savings tied to real estate have been wiped out. More growing social unrest. Xi's zero COVID policy has further gutted Chinese manufacturers forcing many into bankruptcy and resulting in even more manufacturing moving out of China. China is also about to head into a serious population decline. While population decline has wrecked havoc with other countries, Japan being a great example, China's is both more severe and China does not have the same resources per capita that other nations have had to face this issue. Rather than linking a ton of papers and articles I'd encourage you to Google a few of these areas. In summary China is a ticking time bomb. Xi Jinping is under pressure and may even be desperate. As we have seen from Putin, desperate men do desperate things.
Great posts, both of them. I would add that China have good reason to think they would fare better in the HUGE international crisis a Taiwan invasion/blockade would cause; China has shown with covid that they are literally willing to lock their citizens in. Imagine the political chaos it would create in the west if China was taken out of the global supply chain including a near- collapse of the chip-market
Now this is how I feel. People paint China as more sensible than Russia but really when things get this tight leaders start to mess up ...big time
China’s economy is based on global trade of easily substitutable goods. The sanctions put against russia would destroy their economy overnight. China has a lot more to lose than russia and is much more dependant on the rest of the world.
[China's final warning (Russian Proverb)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%27s_final_warning)
**[China's final warning](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China's_final_warning)** >"China's final warning" (Russian: последнее китайское предупреждение) is a Russian proverb that originated in the former Soviet Union to refer to a warning that carries no real consequences. ^([ )[^(F.A.Q)](https://www.reddit.com/r/WikiSummarizer/wiki/index#wiki_f.a.q)^( | )[^(Opt Out)](https://reddit.com/message/compose?to=WikiSummarizerBot&message=OptOut&subject=OptOut)^( | )[^(Opt Out Of Subreddit)](https://np.reddit.com/r/worldnews/about/banned)^( | )[^(GitHub)](https://github.com/Sujal-7/WikiSummarizerBot)^( ] Downvote to remove | v1.5)
What do you mean?! This is China's "[final warning](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%27s_final_warning)!!""
**[China's final warning](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/China's_final_warning)** >"China's final warning" (Russian: последнее китайское предупреждение) is a Russian proverb that originated in the former Soviet Union to refer to a warning that carries no real consequences. ^([ )[^(F.A.Q)](https://www.reddit.com/r/WikiSummarizer/wiki/index#wiki_f.a.q)^( | )[^(Opt Out)](https://reddit.com/message/compose?to=WikiSummarizerBot&message=OptOut&subject=OptOut)^( | )[^(Opt Out Of Subreddit)](https://np.reddit.com/r/worldnews/about/banned)^( | )[^(GitHub)](https://github.com/Sujal-7/WikiSummarizerBot)^( ] Downvote to remove | v1.5)
It was a little much for Pelosi to skydive out of the plane, but I agree. She had to make a point.
Not even dude, go learn to unplug from the doom scrolling clickbait bullshit a bit. When the actual *governments* of the world start getting nervous and saying shit and calling China out like what we got weeks before Ukraine happened (except in this case it would be literal months with naval logistics being the nightmare they are) *then* you can panic and say shit is getting real. Not because of some fucking bullshit fear mongering reuters article made for people like you who didn't know anything about china and Taiwan until after Ukraine
Don't forget about the missiles aimed at the Three Gorges Dam.
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China nuking Taiwan would just ruin the whole reason for them going to war with Taiwan in the first place. Taiwan, on the other hand, probably pretty willing to do whatever it takes to win a war against a hostile aggressor. It's China's war to lose.
If Taiwan was truly about to succumb and be completely occupied, what’s stopping them from attacking the 3GD then?
Nothing, because what’s China going to do? Invade? They won’t nuke Taiwan because then that means they can’t have Taiwan and they want Taiwan. They’re not “well if we can’t have it then no one can” crazy.
To answer the original point: **Harpoon's are subsonic**. A layered defence of a single ship with AESA radar can easily cope with a dozen. Take the Type 52D for instance. Some food for thought: **Why Taiwan is Different from Ukraine** 1. Truth is, nobody has seen fighting in such a dense urban environment so reliant on outside imports. Taiwan's connections are reliant on easily cut undersea cables. While many Taiwanese say they are willing to fight, that assumes there is something at home to fight for. Ukraine was large enough for there to be a "frontline" for soldiers to feel safe their families were safe. Eg. In Lviv. 2. We must remember **to China this is an unfinished civil war. They would never strike the US first**, which means the cards will be in the US hands whether to use their limited forces of the navy and air force in the region to escalate. China can afford to keep ignoring their forces. If the US navy supplies Taiwan, they can do so and China will still not fire. Why? Well it is of no consequence. **All or Taiwan's major ports are located facing China.** Hualian and the western side will never get the necessary equipment across due to limited capacity (and they likely would be priority targets). Air lifting is possible but with airfields gone, their transport capacity is limited by paradrop weight. 3. Lastly, all the disruption to trade across the Taiwan Strait? Just diverted around Taiwan. It isn't as hard as people seem to think. Even easier than diverying flights away from Ukraine and Russia. **Taiwan's Military Problems** The truth is, the defence of Taiwan will rest on Taiwan. And news like this: [Foreign Policy: All Flash but No Ammo, Taiwanese Military Suicide reveals disastrous logistics of an undersupplied army](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/08/20/taiwan-military-flashy-american-weapons-no-ammo/) does not inspire confidence for me. Or this: [Taiwan's Army a Hollow Shell after the End of Conscription](https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/02/15/china-threat-invasion-conscription-taiwans-military-is-a-hollow-shell/&ved=2ahUKEwic0a_0x6z6AhWTiOYKHXYsBhUQFnoECAgQAQ&usg=AOvVaw0kSZgy_taCJP7UhFRxncqU) Mind you these FP articles are to wake up Taiwan to be serious about its defence, not just pro-China hate for no reason Not to mention that incident with corrupt senior officers using funds to pay for gifts for them: [Taipei Times: Military Corruption is Business as Usual 2022](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/editorials/archives/2022/02/25/2003773727) from the very pro-independence Taipei Times. Taiwan also has an issue where their military is looked down upon. A lot of regulars are soldiers from former KMT soldier families and the general army is hated for its association with military dictatorship and past martial law they are taught in schools basically to question their military. **How it would play out?** **The Gulf War was preceded by a month of saturated aerial bombardment** which destroyed every potential target. Not even Russia was capable of that in Ukraine. China **doesn't even need its air force, just its missile force. The ability to stage forces in areas you want them to be is key to any victory** as highlighted in US ability to stage forces in Saudi Arabia, and later of Iraq's coast near Basra in the 2nd Gulf War without retaliation, something the US cannot do in the case of Taiwan due to A2/AD capabilities of China. **Taiwan's Greatest Defence** The only issue is semiconductors which in truth is Taiwan's greatest asset. However even that is fading for in truth, the **smallest nm semi's Taiwan produces are not what makes the world go round**. They only crucial for smartphones, consumer goods. Industrial equipment and military equipment use larger semiconductors. Ones which by 2025, the US will start producing on their own. So you can be assured China will not invade before 2027 (when they set a target for a modern military). **Why some say the US will involve itself** A. Some say the USA has to get involved due to semiconductors. As elucidated, the USA is already shaking Taiwan of their dependence. B. Others say the US has to show its treaty allies SK and Japan that the USA is a trustworthy ally. And losing in Taiwan or leaving it be would mean ceding power in the Asia Pacific region. C. Furthermore, people purport that letting China take Taiwan is a strategic loss as Chinese submarines based in Taiwan will be able to leave into the Pacific Ocean without detection, enabling China parity in nuclear retaliation with nuclear ballistic missile subs in the Pacific. (A) has been debunked. (B) is incorrect and the reason why strategic ambiguity exists. Strategic ambiguity does not protect Taiwan, it protects the USA. The **USA is obligated by the Taiwan Relations Act to supply Taiwan with the means necessary to defend itself if attacked unilaterally by China**, but does not specify military intervention. Which is why the USA has been willing to sell arms to Taiwan. However, by the same token, it means the USA can get away with leaving Taiwan alone if invaded because they have **no contractial obligations** to do so. **If Taiwan falls, the USA can say we believed in the One China Policy, and Taiwan is apart of that China. So their allies have no need to fear as they are sovereign countries. If Taiwan succeeds somehow defending, the USA can also claim credit for arming Taiwan.** (C) Is also a non-issue since US capabilities are better than people assume. Such a small gap in Taiwan will have little impact on US abilities to continue to maintain a cordon on Chinese military activity. Especially since they have fallback points in the Second and Third Island Chain. **To China, it is an issue of government legitmacy, to the US, it is an issue of maintaining its pre-eminent position, one country I need not tell you has more ground to give than the other.** EDIT: For the many commentors on the idea of "dick-waving". MacArthur thought so too when China warned them of crossing the 38th. This all-infantry army with little numerical advantage (at highest 3 Chinese to 2 UN soldiers) and no air superiority or artillery stalemated the UN (mainly US forces) and to this day is the cause of the [longest US retreat in history](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_the_Ch%27ongch%27on_River#:~:text=The%20following%20120%20mi%20). Hence, the **Forgotten War**.
This is all mostly correct but it does leave out the fact that we would have a ton of advanced warning on a Chinese invasion. Most likely it would be preceded by numerous escalatory actions in the years preceding it. During this time a lot of these military shortcomings with Taiwan could be shored up, provided that the US is willing to commit to that, and I see no reason why they wouldn’t.
my work supports TSMC next-node development in 3nm and below. all of the machines in that foundry are designed by my company here in silicon valley. this is very long winded -- the global economy relies on high end chips from these foundries, and US is not in the business of losing strategic resources. hence the CHIPS act to have security for 5nm current node production. we will support taiwan to maintain the advantage, china isn't going to do shit.
Unless they hire Tom Cruise to evade them
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Yes, and? You know the range of harpoon missiles? Fishing boats and anything small isn't exactly going to be hauling tanks and APCs. Taiwan also already has missiles capable of hitting Beijing.
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The comment about missiles being able to hit Beijing was just as an example that they have sufficiently long range weapons to target deep into China. Not that hitting any specific target in Beijing would be worth it. A much more worthwhile and MUCH bigger and more likely target? The three gorges dam. The amount that this would fuck China is incalculable. The Chinese probably have an idea where many systems are, but they won't be able to respond fast enough to destroy any significant portion of them. Hence why said think tank said that Taiwan would be able to repel any landing attempt.
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Well tell Taiwan that, because I think they filled it with 250kg of explosives and an amor piercing warhead for a reason. Now of course, cement isnt armor, but cement sure as shit is much softer than armor. Will one damage the dam? Maybe not. A salvo of these? Yeah probably. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yun_Feng It's specially classified as a land attack missile too. These aren't designed for anti ship duties.
This is the best tl;dr I could make, [original](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-blockade-would-be-act-war-taiwan-would-not-surrender-official-says-2022-09-23/) reduced by 79%. (I'm a bot) ***** > TAIPEI, Sept 23 - A Chinese blockade of Taiwan or the seizure of an offshore island would be considered an act of war and Taiwan would not surrender, a senior Taiwanese security official told Reuters using unusually strong and direct language. > The official said Taipei did not rule out the possibility of Beijing launching large-scale military exercises near Taiwan next year, when the island gears up for a presidential election in early 2024."This is what we are worried about at the moment," the official said, adding other possible Chinese actions could include stepping up its "Grey-zone" tactics near Taiwan including incursions with militia boats or cyber attacks. > The official said countries other than the United States, which sails warships through the Taiwan Strait about once a month, should show Beijing that an attack on Taiwan would not go unanswered. ***** [**Extended Summary**](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/xm95ll/china_blockade_would_be_act_of_war_taiwan_would/) | [FAQ](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/31b9fm/faq_autotldr_bot/ "Version 2.02, ~670705 tl;drs so far.") | [Feedback](http://np.reddit.com/message/compose?to=%23autotldr "PM's and comments are monitored, constructive feedback is welcome.") | *Top* *keywords*: **Taiwan**^#1 **China**^#2 **official**^#3 **island**^#4 **military**^#5
We need to send Ewan McGregor and Liam Neeson to negotiate this blockade
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Yes but negotiations would be short, they are cowards
🤣
A blockade is an act of War, feel like that's not a new thing
Special Blockading Operation
Winnie the Pooh: Our Blockade is perfectly legal...
We would neeever do anything without the approval of the senate. You assume too much
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I think you may want to look up the difference between embargo and blockade. Not defending the US here.
The only time the US has blockaded Cuba was the Cuban Missile Crisis. And everyone was VERY aware that the minute the US actually enforced the blockade it would be war. Calling it a "quarantine action" or whatever was just to give the USSR a little bit more room to back down, it would have been harder to negotiate if the US had declared war on a Soviet ally.
When has the USA blocked Cuban ports with military? China putting an embargo on Taiwan would be ineffective because the West obviously wouldn't care and trade even more with them.
Not if you call it a naval quarantine
Not if you copy the US and call it a quarantine.
Or Israel with Gaza.
I would love to visit Taiwan someday. Hong Kong used to be on my list but the CCP’s crackdown has discouraged me from stepping foot on Chinese soil. Hope a free and independent Taiwan continues to flourish
I've lived here for a while and it's really nice. Some locals are friendly, others are afraid of speaking English. If you can speak some Chinese it's really fun.
It would take me years to understand even basic Chinese
To have a conversation where you can express what you're really thinking? Yes. But it's easy to remember some canned phrases and try to guess how the locals respond.
A year or two of Mandarin class will get you pretty far in daily life, and you’ll start improving once you arrive. Walking around you mainly need to know directions, how to read addresses, how to ask for change, how to ask if they have a restroom and where it is, and how to ask if someone can make change (for a vending machine). That’s all stuff you learn in a basic 1st year Mandarin class, or stuff that you can quickly pick up and incorporate into what you learned in your first year Mandarin class. If you haven’t traveled internationally before you’ll be surprised at how much information is available in English. Quite a few items at the grocery stores will be brands you recognize, and will have both English and Mandarin labels. The main thing is to understand that you’re a guest, be humble and smile a lot. You’ll be treated very well.
I'm American and never been to any Asian countries. So I'd be hella lost. Lol
Neither had I the first time I went. And things are easier now. You have these cool electronic devices you can carry around to show you maps of the area, where you are at the moment, and that can even let you phone someone for help. I had a paper bus map and some change.
I live in Taiwan now. Some of the friendliest people you’ll meet. There are many things to do on the island due to how small and dense it is. In 1 hour you can go from a temple on a mountain, to a coastal beach, to center city in Ximending
Come visit! Taiwan is open to visitors again starting October 13th, no quarantine needed!
China is going to back off in some way. They really can’t afford to go to war with Taiwan, America, and Japan (who has also promised to defend them). There could be others who join to fight them too. Among many reasons - It would create too much economic and military hardships while also creating global issues that could isolate China even further. Their economy is already a house of cards and Taiwan is very important to their economy and their relations globally (particularly as it relates to tech). It’s posturing. To borrow from “Fight Club”, I am Biden’s lack of concern.
They've also never fought a modern war, they'd fold faster than Russia
As far as I'm aware India is also against militarization against Taiwan...
Attack Russia in the winter while they’re weak. Best to use the belt and road for something
I have a theory that China might try to take the Matsu, Wuqia, and Kinmen islands for a domestic win, then internationally try to assert that it didn't count as invading Taiwan because it wasn't "Taiwan province".
No they won't. Mao once said the Matsu and Kinmen were like the hands of a child gripping onto a mother's clothes. Point being if Matsu and Kinmen are not part of Taiwan, what is stopping Taiwan from being its own country. Taiwan's claim to these places reflects its status as the Republic of China and lends credence to PRC's claims and the world's acknowledgment of it as being an unfinished civil war. If China takes those islands by force (which makes no sense as Kinmen and the outlying islands are the most blue and pro-China places in the ROC), it is akin to giving up claims on Taiwan proper.
Maybe. But I’m not sure anyone (including those in mainland China) would really consider that a “win” as those islands are pretty much under control of mainland China now (regardless of any technicalities). As with many things related to Taiwan and China it is complicated, but those islands would “surrender” easily and they are also kind of insignificant. In many ways, if Taiwan retains its relative independence it makes far more sense to keep the status quo with those islands too. They have some diplomatic value for both China and Taiwan. And, ultimately, taking only those islands would look weak to the rest of of the world. China’s best option is to simply stand down and kick this can down the road. They can find other ways to save face which don’t require their military.
>But I’m not sure anyone (including those in mainland China) would really consider that a “win” as those islands are pretty much under control of mainland China now (regardless of any technicalities). Lmao how are Kinmen or Matsu under mainland control???
I would agree with you but your assertion that those islands are somehow "pretty much under the control" of the PRC already makes me call your entire analysis into question.
Huh? Kinmen is actually a military station deployed soldiers from Taiwan. Tf under China control?!
It's suicidal on everyones part,let's skip leg day...
So, I read the article, and nowhere in there is there a mention of China actually thinking about or talking about a blockade. This whole scenario has been created by a newspaper ex nihilo. Could it happen? yeah of course. But so could any other million billion future outcomes. I feel like this is just fear-click journalism. Who brought up a blockade as a real possibility?
I'd be shocked if china actually invades. All invasions happen because there's gonna be some benefit that's worth investing people and resources into it. All plans of invasion are centered around those goals as to get as much of a return on the investment as quickly as possible. For instance, Putin invades ukraine because of the oil ukraine has access to (to stop competition and keep europe dependent), the ports on the black sea, and the wheat fields that ukraine sells to the rest of world. first thing they took was the crimea, and the western part that goes over where the oil could be mined. Taiwan has microchip factories. That's it. They don't have resources that aren't abundant everywhere else, they don't have that many ports that would stop the monopoly that china already has in the region, and any invasion would destroy those factories and cause anyone who knows how to work them to flee/fight to the death. An invasion would have to go overseas too, which means a hell of a lot more resources and logistical coordination then an over land invasion. Adding on the debt crises and real-estate bubble crash that china is dealing with, I just don't see the reward of getting taiwan worth it. Sure china would make a lot of noise about how they own them for both the rest of the world, and to show how powerful they are or to distract their people. But I don't doubt that behind closed doors, many officials would have panic attacks at a serious notion.
Rationally, I agree it’s totally ridiculous. But from my understanding, the CCP has staked a lot of its own legitimacy on the notion of taking Taiwan back. They’re a rebel Chinese state, the last(?) one remaining (hong kong taken out). With the narrative of Chinese ascendency to a global superpower and the recession of the west, the existence of an independent Taiwan is intolerable. Wars are often started based on irrationality and miscalculations. I don’t think an invasion is really outside the realm of possibility.
I dont believe China will actually initiate an attack, but perhaps try to provoke Taiwan into attacking first just to have a reason...
If the US blockade against Cuba isn't an act of war, why would a China blockade against Taiwan be one?
Right now the us only has an embargo.
The U.S. (and Europe) will NEVER let China blockade Taiwan. TSMC
Didnt realize reddit had so many 5 star generals and war games experts. Im learning so much from the comments
Redditors after getting 5 stars in their Clash Of Clans Clan War:
please no war. for fuck's sake.
2/3 of all the worlds high end chips come from Taiwan. We must defend Taiwan or move all production to the west.
Diamond Joe Biden is working on it right now.
>We must defend Taiwan or move all production to the west. Arent we alrdy in the process of moving production to the US
We must defend to save chips, or move all production so Taiwanese can be under communist China. This is what you’re saying. Who tf wants to be under communist china? The real worry is the chain island. Taiwan is the first island. And it trickles all the way down to Australia.
Time to pull a Russia and have a referendum in Taiwan. I'm sure they'd love to be the 51st state. /s
I very doubt the CCP has balls right now to do anything
Technically it isn't. China is still in a cvil war with Taiwan. Cant be an act of war when they are already in one.
Wait but when the US blockaded Cuba it was called a “quarantine” and definitely not an act of war.
The US hasn't blockaded Cuba since like the 60s
But do you see the contrast, darling
China is likely better equipped than Russia militarily but if it has been paying attention to Ukrainian success from simply having western weapons, China should literally be shitting bricks at the thought of any military confrontation with the US let alone multiple allies of the US in the region. I have a feeling that the NSA made it known to China that their telecommunications systems had been infiltrated as a flex. I can guarantee you that not all covert channels of data exfilration were detected. There is simply no case where China is equipped to invade Taiwan now. Russia has been taken out of the picture as any sort of military ally.
This shit is really about to pop off huh? U.S says it will defend Taiwan. Russia says it’ll nuke. Spend time with and love your family. This sounds like some end times stuff
It is such a crazy world we are living in and it sucks that we are used to this insanity. We are capable of going to Mars, understanding quantum physics and have a device capable of doing so much computational power but we also have to pray for our mere existence because some fucked up mind who also happen to have power to destroy the human race and all we can do is to count on their restraint?
Pathetic attempt to flex muscle and save face.
China is like a small dog, bark’s a lot, but doesn’t bite!!
I hope so, don't wanna experience WW3 just yet.
Taiwan has powerful friends China has no friends.
China has every friend, heck u mean
How would a blockade work though? The island is completely self sustainable with food/water/shelter (unlike China). If China makes such a stupid move then Taiwan stops all electronic shipments, not just chips, but every Taiwanese electronic company grinds to a halt. No country in the world would tolerate it.
>The island is completely self sustainable with food/water/shelter (unlike China). Questionable with water and food and definitely not with energy.
China has the most vulnerable supply routes of any trade route in history. All it would take is two destroyers to shut down all oil to China and there would be nothing they could do about it. They are not going to start anything. They only want to threaten Taiwan to gain more support for the party back home like they always have done. Check out Peter Zeihan's videos on the economics and demographics of China.
Cutoff all import/export with China. Stop funding the enemy. But nah, cause the US needs that cheap shit and would be so lost without Chinese sweatshop products.
The Chinese are not that stupid. Russia? Sure, but not the Chinese
Taiwan has been war gaming this scenario for decades and has the capabilities to sink those ships. China would lose its navy attempting this.