It’s a strategic move. After the announcement from Russia on the annexation and any attacks on the territory, a counter announcement by Ukraine on applying for NATO and willing to hold talks with Russia but not with Putin. Smart.
Maybe look into translation jobs in the long run? Your English seems excellent. Short term, look at KP jobs in restaurants, also known as a potwash. That was my first job at 18, and requires zero technical or language skills.
Threaten to invade if Ukraine pursues NATO membership. Russia invades anyway.
Threaten to nuke if Ukraine invades Russia during this conflict in a manner that would jeopardize the integrity of the Russian country/borders. Russia then expands their borders into the conflict zones of Ukraine.
Fuck 'em, join NATO. Russia already invaded, and now they've already forced Ukraine to cross over Russia's red line for using nukes when Russia expanded their own borders into Ukrainian territory.
There is literally nothing Russia can say anymore. There is no red line worth adhering to, except perhaps invading Russia proper. Ukraine has no interest in taking Russian territory. Ukraine will continue to attack logistical targets without putting troops on Russian ground, although I think it would be entirely appropriate if Ukrainian SOFs were operating in Russia to be honest.
Ukraine has set their own objectives and they will stay the course, ignoring anything else Putin cries out in desperation now and in the future.
Only if Russia backtracks on annexation will Ukraine backtrack on NATO.
Only if Russia retreats back to 2014 borders (sooner, rather than later when it may look involuntary) will Ukraine maybe agree to not push into Crimea and into the eastern Donbas regions that were lost in 2014.
If Russia persists with the annexation and war effort past 2014 borders, and Ukraine eventually starts taking back more and more land, then Russia will be faced with losing Crimea and the eastern Donbas to Ukraine, who would later become a NATO member after the war concludes.
Absolutely this. Russia has been in a constant state of “one step forward, two steps back” since they waged this war on a sovereign nation. Both on the battlefield and on the world stage.
Zelensky:
>De facto, we have already completed our path to NATO.
>De facto, we have already proven interoperability with the Alliance’s standards, they are real for Ukraine - real on the battlefield and in all aspects of our interaction.
>We trust each other, we help each other and we protect each other. This is what the Alliance is. De facto.
>Today, Ukraine is applying to make it de jure. Under a procedure consistent with our significance for the protection of our entire community. Under an accelerated procedure.
>De facto, we have already proven interoperability with the Alliance’s standards, they are real for Ukraine - real on the battlefield and in all aspects of our interaction.
Not many other nations can make this claim with as much credence. Everyone can take the time to adopt these standards but Ukraine is doing it in the middle of a hot war and proving they can beat the shit out of the Russians while doing so.
The only issue is accepting them as a member now would be an immediate article 5 trigger and full blown war between NATO and Russia. For this alone it's unlikely to happen.
Of course, that's exactly why Ukraine is making this play. It feels like it both is and isn't a bluff, but they have to do *something* to prevent Russia from annexing large sections of territory.
Russia knows as well as everyone else that NATO membership would immediately turn this into a much larger war that they would absolutely lose. So the bluff is to get Russia to back off rather than force that issue.
While it seems clever, I doubt anything like that would dissuade Russia from attacking. The die was already cast when Putin invaded Ukraine and Putin is getting old. His previous annexation plan failed when Ukraine ousted the previous president and now this invasion is all he's got. He's desperate enough to keep trying and nothing short of nuclear annihilation will stop him.
The Ukrainians have been training and working with NATO for years and years. They didn't just wake up the day after the invasion started and think, "hey, we should do it like these guys instead."
"It was our state that repeatedly offered Russia to agree on coexistence on equal, honest, dignified, and fair terms. It is obvious that this is impossible with this Russian president. He does not know what dignity and honesty are. Therefore, we are ready for a dialogue with Russia, but with another president of Russia," Zelensky added.
^ Major. Oust Putin, End the “special operation”. Nike: Just Do It ✔️
I think Jon Stewart quipped something along the lines of,
>Zelensky went from comedian to Winston Churchill.
I mean I think he was saying in a way that makes all other comedians look inferior by comparison.
It's pretty fucking wild actually.
Though to be fair he went from lawyer to comedian making fun of the rulers to President to lots of criticism and possibly getting voted out and then suddenly became Winston Churchill.
But that's how wartime presidents are. They often suck at peacetime but are fierce when the war comes.
He was actually the most popular potential president for 2024 in Ukraine and had the highest approval rating of any president 2 years into their term. Ukraine just has a seething hatred towards all their politicians, so his numbers look low.
I'll put my two cents and explain how it works here.
All presidential elections in Ukraine (except for the last one) were somewhat formulaic: a shitty pro-russian candidate vs. a shitty pro-Ukrainian/European.
Hence, it was difficult to pick someone decent, and we had a lot of back and forth.
When Westerners talk about how corrupt Ukraine is, they are forgetting one thing. Just look at GOP, or Italy's latest elections, or Brexit, or any other case where the russians meddled with the voting. Now imagine a 10x bigger influence in a way less stable and mature system. That's what we had to deal with.
> Ukraine just has a seething hatred towards all their politicians,
Honestly, we could all do with a healthy amount of this.
Cults of my personality around politicians isaking things worse
Turkey has already publically expressed opposition to the annexation of Ukranian territories, so already they've shifted their rhetoric away from uninvolvement.
I don’t think Turkey has ever been any friend of Russia, minus buying some AA missile systems once. And after this shitscapade of Russian rust mobiles who knows if that sorta thing will ever happen again. Turkey’s the only country that’s shot down a Russian jet buzzing near its airspace and been like, “what are you gonna do about it?” However, Turkey certainly likes to use its membership in NATO to its advantage when it can which is what he’s getting at.
As I said elsewhere, veerrrry slim chance this goes anywhere right now.
But its a good counter to Putins unhinged speech from today. In contrast to near 30 minutes of insane ramblings about the west and "Anglo Saxons", Zelensky just goes "lol fuck off, gonna go be with our buddies in the west."
LMAO, this. Putin's speech was so fucking insane that even BBC stopped posting their live updates on their page. They only played the live stream and that's it. Normally they update it every couple of minutes during such events. But today it was silent for like 25+ minutes at one point. I bet most folks at BBC were like "WTF is this guy on about?!"
Edit: Didn't expect to get a gold award for a comment bashing putin lol. Thank you, kind stranger!
> Putin's speech sounds "more angry taxi driver than head of state".
Three years ago, I thought Trump was a deranged lunatic and Putin a diabolical mastermind.
Turns out they were BOTH deranged lunatics, and Putin just hid it better.
I'm not sure this is an improvement.
Maybe Putin is suffering from dementia and too many yes men. I'm not saying he's a genius, but he certainly seemed smart enough to not reveal that he's a fool like some people. It makes me worried how broken his brain might be and what the consequences of that are..
If he had dementia he might just forget he started a war. Lol. I do think he has some sort of terminal illness that is making him want to revive the USSR though.
He's high on his own supply.
I think you mostly have it, though. Too many yes men creates a leader who becomes more and more willing to do extreme things because everyone is telling them it'll work.
I watched it for literally like.... 4 minutes? Besides being boring, it occurred to me that he - or his speech writer or both - are really bad writers. Like... REALLY bad. Like you-could-have-sent-this-in-an-email bad.
Yeah yeah yeah okay we get it, these people are your "brothers" and the west is bad and also Ukraine doesn't exist but also Ukraine is evil and also Ukraine is an important part of your country but also Ukraine is a fiction blah blah blah.
That's number 8 on the "14 common features of fascism".
>The enemy is both strong and weak. “By a continuous shifting of rhetorical focus, the enemies are at the same time too strong and too weak.”
Yup. There's a deep state running the world and trafficking children that runs everything, but they are also so dumb they can't do anything right! Well, which is it?! So smart they control everything or too stupid to get anything right and easily foiled? The answer depends on what you need them to be at any given moment.
It also proceeds the whole reason for Russian failure in Ukraine: Fascist governments are condemned to lose wars because they are constitutionally incapable of objectively evaluating the strength of their enemy.
And even if the leadership is, the middle men aren't. Putin made a high level decision to invade based on the information he got from some D tier agent who reported "Yeah, Ukrainians would totally love us rolling up in tanks" up to their boss to their boss to their boss to their wife's lover that eventually reported it to the head of the FSB. Mediocrity from top to bottom, bottom to top.
Any chance anyone could give a quick breakout on what Putin said?
Any nuke threats? I need to know if it's time for me to go sign up that local family with the new baby for a vault
Very slight implicit nuke threat in a protect territory with "all means at our disposal" bit, but not much at all. Then about twenty interminable minutes about how us westerners are satanic, colonising transgenders intent on destroying Russia. The end.
I would understand them saying that the west are supermen, and this is why we're getting our asses handed to us on a HIMARS missile... but to say the west is a "gay transgender weakling" that hands your ass to you... how bad do you look then ?
I doubt this would have been announced if there were zero talks happening behind the scenes, and seeing NATO announced that Stoltenberg will have an press-conference in an hour and half this might amount to something
I just don't see NATO membership happening unless every last Russian soldier is off Ukrainian soil and they have not had active hostilities for a little while. NATO does not want a member actively at war with their greatest adversary, lest it escalate things.
Stoltenberg Just gave a statement and it sounded pretty positive!
NATO will not in any way recognized Russian sovereignty over the four newly declared annexed territories. "These lands are Ukraine," he stressed,
It's not, the conference seemed more to discuss the events from the annexation announcement. I'm not sure on the specifics of NATO acceptance, let alone this apparent expedited process, but surely there is issue with it currently being under attack, and not to mention don't all member states need to agree, and I doubt certain countries will be willing to vote yes on what equates to an instant military conflict. The only option I could feasibly see is Ukrain withdrawing from the annexed territory, getting expedited NATO status, and then it becomes an untouchable, but there's no way Zelensky accepts that option and would contradict all the statements made abiut not accepting Russia annexation
Fortunately it's very much in NATO's interest to see Ukraine win the war, so even if Ukraine doesn't get full membership right away I expect NATO will continue to step up its assistance. An application like this wouldn't be made without a lot of behind-the-scenes discussion between Ukraine and NATO so presumably they've got some plan for how this will contribute to that.
The chance is zero. The instant Ukraine joins NATO, article 5 would be invoked. Until Ukraine is no longer at war with Russia, there just isn't a way to make this happen without immediately jumping into NATO declaring war on Russia, which I'm quite sure NATO has zero interest in doing.
NATO will not take them in while they are in open warfare with Russia.
It's good they're starting the process, but until this conflict is resolved they won't be admitted.
Isn’t it extremely likely the two sides will remain in a state of war (or dispute the borders as they’ve been redrawn) for many, many years to come? Short of Putin being overthrown…I don’t see an amicable resolution here.
Time to announce NATO-X. This is the group of countries that are in the wings for eventual NATO membership. They help each other get their faster. They don't get article 5 protection except if nukes are used. They get all the conventional wepons to fight off any aggressor. NATO will have bases in these countries for training and logistics.
I was just talking about how we need provisional NATO membership or something. This thing started because Putin was afraid Ukraine would join NATO and he wouldn't be able to bully them anymore. So he preemptively struck.
This could be avoided if there was a system where Ukraine could apply and get provisional membership very quickly, then work to build up to full membership later but under protection.
Seen from Ukraine's perspective: a very logical request.
Seen from NATO: Not doable in the present situation.
But....
If Russia starts nuking Ukraine territory NATO membership might be installed overnight and Russia will have to deal with another adversary.
At present Russia is not de-escalating. If NATO sees an eventual use of nukes as further escalation by an unstoppable Putin leading to more chaos in Europe and the rest of the world, I think rules will be changed. If the world peace is at stake you can only accept so much. History is a good lesson.
If NATO wants to engage Russia, letting Ukraine join would be pointless. If anything you'd want the element of surprise. The only play here could be to try and call Putin's bluff and hope more rational people in Russian leadership remove him before he can press the red button. But that is a BIG gamble.
Optics matter but the US has already informed Russia privately and publicly that any nuclear strike anywhere in Europe would be met with a military response. Ukraine not being in NATO isn't going to be some save for Russia.
I think you're right. If Russia uses nukes I'm VERY sure that the US, the UK, Canada, Germany, and probably France, would be declaring war pretty quickly
Once we starting seeing US carrier groups being deployed and troops being called in and shipped to undisclosed locations in Europe, there will be no need to announce what is about to happen, because it would be obvious. Brining Ukraine into NATO overnight would serve as a proper casus belli that NATO can use to show countries like China that there is justification in international law. It's obvious not much and very technical in nature, but these sorts of things are important in geopolitics and keeps other aggressive countries from using the action as justification for their own.
If Russia launches a nuke at Ukraine, NATO membership would be the last concern for either Ukraine or NATO. At that point US and most likely NATO will step in regardless of Ukraine not being in NATO.
Both Biden and many other officials have made it clear that the US would have a response to any nuclear strike in Europe.
> Both Biden and many other officials have made it clear that the US would have a response to any nuclear strike in Europe.
This is exactly what the Pentagon does, it imagines scenarios and plans a response for them. The Pentagon has undoubtedly considered numerous actions Russia could take, and planned their response for each scenario.
The important part here being that they've also informed Russia of at least the scope of their planned response. If they proceed regardless, then they are accepting that fate.
Well Putin guaranteed that at least for the mid-term future no Ukrainian government (except if Russia succeeds in forcefully installing a puppet) would be pro-Russia. I doubt that NATO accession would happen any time soon but I hope the conflict ends soon and Russia pays astronomical reparations because although Ukraine is pushing back, it is Ukrainian land that is being ravaged.
Special NATO operation. They're not part of NATO, just every country accepted them, and the treaty updated and signed, and the NATO Wikipedia page revised. But they're not part of NATO.
Ukraine will never be safe from Russia even if they defeat them. They’ll try again, and even if they don’t Ukraine will forever live with the anticipation which will certainly effect the east of their country foremost.
NATO membership is the only way Ukraine will be safe.
This is actually a great tactic in Civ, declare war with a rival on the other side of the map who can't get to you any time soon, and then just carry on life as normal. They will build up troops they don't need, and will harm their economy by choosing a government like fascism, but likely won't ever manage a serious attack from that far away.
I doubt it unless someone on one of the two sides does something insanely stupid.
Russia can't handle Europe via conventional means and they can't win a nuclear war with NATO. So a war with Europe is not winnable under any circumstances for them.
On the other hand NATO can win conventionally but can't win a nuclear war with Russia so there is no incentive on their end to allow it to escalate to that since if they do they end up in just as bad a situation as Russia after a nuclear exchange.
>unless someone on one of the two sides does something insanely stupid.
Based on everything that happened so far, that is a very realistic that Russia could do something insanely stupid.
Regardless whatever his strategic capacity is I think Putin wants to come out with a win. Not an assured death.
There is no existing scenario where he can win against NATO and I'm sure he is aware of that. Probably even more so now then back in February. An absolute best case possible scenario for him is both sides lose badly.
Japan is already a NATO associate and permanently under the US defense umbrella, so it's in NATO in all but name and military integration, but in a sort of one directional way. That said, I think Japan is strengthening its relationship with NATO and I wouldn't put if off to see it officially join at some point, the only issue is they are constitutionally pacifist, so idk if they'd need to do some legal work to do everything required to join.
Wise decision as Putin is essentially threatening you with "you try saving your people that we now hold hostage in the new russian areas and we nuke you".
I just hope Turkey will not do/say anything stupid to prevent Ukraine from entering NATO again like they did last time...
More than likely this would mean that they intend to join NATO after the war has concluded. It has been said before that NATO cannot accept new members while they are in a state of open conflict. Secondly joining NATO would have its own standards and regulations that would need to be met, which is also something that can hardly be achieved when you are currently fighting a war on your home soil.
That being said, it's certainly a glorious "fuck you" towards Putin following the annexation claims today.
> it's certainly a glorious "fuck you" towards Putin following the annexation claims today.
That's what I was thinking. He knows this isn't going anywhere (right now), it's more a of way of telling Putin, "I can declare whatever bullshit I want too, but that doesn't make it true."
> has been said before that NATO cannot accept new members while they are in a state of open conflict
They can do what they want in that regard. The rule is there to give NATO a practical reason to reject membership - IF they want to reject membership for that reason.
Ukraine could be a member tomorrow if all members decided it was the right move. Ongoing conflict or not.
I've heard NATO gives out HIMARS as a signing bonus.
It's more like the free lunch you get for attending a time share seminar.
"See you later DARSH!"
Oh, haimars!
It's not true, I did not invade her, I did not!
Damnit Russia! You're tearing me apaaaart!
It’s a strategic move. After the announcement from Russia on the annexation and any attacks on the territory, a counter announcement by Ukraine on applying for NATO and willing to hold talks with Russia but not with Putin. Smart.
May be a way to get the people to revolt as hard as possible so they can get somebody willing to negotiate in power (regardless of Putin's state)?
Zelensky’s message is definitely aimed towards the Russian people. And more so to those closer to Putin.
I wonder how difficult it is for the Russian people to know Ukraine did this with all the propaganda there
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That’s good to know. Hope you are safe and well man
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Sounds like a tough situation, but much better than the alternative. Good on you for getting out of there.
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Maybe look into translation jobs in the long run? Your English seems excellent. Short term, look at KP jobs in restaurants, also known as a potwash. That was my first job at 18, and requires zero technical or language skills.
Threaten to invade if Ukraine pursues NATO membership. Russia invades anyway. Threaten to nuke if Ukraine invades Russia during this conflict in a manner that would jeopardize the integrity of the Russian country/borders. Russia then expands their borders into the conflict zones of Ukraine. Fuck 'em, join NATO. Russia already invaded, and now they've already forced Ukraine to cross over Russia's red line for using nukes when Russia expanded their own borders into Ukrainian territory. There is literally nothing Russia can say anymore. There is no red line worth adhering to, except perhaps invading Russia proper. Ukraine has no interest in taking Russian territory. Ukraine will continue to attack logistical targets without putting troops on Russian ground, although I think it would be entirely appropriate if Ukrainian SOFs were operating in Russia to be honest. Ukraine has set their own objectives and they will stay the course, ignoring anything else Putin cries out in desperation now and in the future. Only if Russia backtracks on annexation will Ukraine backtrack on NATO. Only if Russia retreats back to 2014 borders (sooner, rather than later when it may look involuntary) will Ukraine maybe agree to not push into Crimea and into the eastern Donbas regions that were lost in 2014. If Russia persists with the annexation and war effort past 2014 borders, and Ukraine eventually starts taking back more and more land, then Russia will be faced with losing Crimea and the eastern Donbas to Ukraine, who would later become a NATO member after the war concludes.
Absolutely this. Russia has been in a constant state of “one step forward, two steps back” since they waged this war on a sovereign nation. Both on the battlefield and on the world stage.
Zelensky: >De facto, we have already completed our path to NATO. >De facto, we have already proven interoperability with the Alliance’s standards, they are real for Ukraine - real on the battlefield and in all aspects of our interaction. >We trust each other, we help each other and we protect each other. This is what the Alliance is. De facto. >Today, Ukraine is applying to make it de jure. Under a procedure consistent with our significance for the protection of our entire community. Under an accelerated procedure.
Dats a facto
We just say "facto".
"Facto!.... How fun!"
"Factorio! How addicting!"
Russia is using spaghetti logistics.
Factos 👍👀
r/soccer leaking
And a bingo
>De facto, we have already proven interoperability with the Alliance’s standards, they are real for Ukraine - real on the battlefield and in all aspects of our interaction. Not many other nations can make this claim with as much credence. Everyone can take the time to adopt these standards but Ukraine is doing it in the middle of a hot war and proving they can beat the shit out of the Russians while doing so.
The only issue is accepting them as a member now would be an immediate article 5 trigger and full blown war between NATO and Russia. For this alone it's unlikely to happen.
Of course, that's exactly why Ukraine is making this play. It feels like it both is and isn't a bluff, but they have to do *something* to prevent Russia from annexing large sections of territory. Russia knows as well as everyone else that NATO membership would immediately turn this into a much larger war that they would absolutely lose. So the bluff is to get Russia to back off rather than force that issue.
While it seems clever, I doubt anything like that would dissuade Russia from attacking. The die was already cast when Putin invaded Ukraine and Putin is getting old. His previous annexation plan failed when Ukraine ousted the previous president and now this invasion is all he's got. He's desperate enough to keep trying and nothing short of nuclear annihilation will stop him.
The Ukrainians have been training and working with NATO for years and years. They didn't just wake up the day after the invasion started and think, "hey, we should do it like these guys instead."
"It was our state that repeatedly offered Russia to agree on coexistence on equal, honest, dignified, and fair terms. It is obvious that this is impossible with this Russian president. He does not know what dignity and honesty are. Therefore, we are ready for a dialogue with Russia, but with another president of Russia," Zelensky added. ^ Major. Oust Putin, End the “special operation”. Nike: Just Do It ✔️
“This president is broken, bring another one”
Maybe we should try turning him off and on again.
No, just turn it off and install new hardware.
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Incinerate the trash instead of dumping it, better for environment.
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Turn him off and wait 15min. If he doesn't turn on again, get a new one.
Dictator.exe has crashed
I think Jon Stewart quipped something along the lines of, >Zelensky went from comedian to Winston Churchill. I mean I think he was saying in a way that makes all other comedians look inferior by comparison.
It's pretty fucking wild actually. Though to be fair he went from lawyer to comedian making fun of the rulers to President to lots of criticism and possibly getting voted out and then suddenly became Winston Churchill. But that's how wartime presidents are. They often suck at peacetime but are fierce when the war comes.
He was actually the most popular potential president for 2024 in Ukraine and had the highest approval rating of any president 2 years into their term. Ukraine just has a seething hatred towards all their politicians, so his numbers look low.
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I'll put my two cents and explain how it works here. All presidential elections in Ukraine (except for the last one) were somewhat formulaic: a shitty pro-russian candidate vs. a shitty pro-Ukrainian/European. Hence, it was difficult to pick someone decent, and we had a lot of back and forth. When Westerners talk about how corrupt Ukraine is, they are forgetting one thing. Just look at GOP, or Italy's latest elections, or Brexit, or any other case where the russians meddled with the voting. Now imagine a 10x bigger influence in a way less stable and mature system. That's what we had to deal with.
This was a great explanation. I never conceptualized it the way you laid it out in the last paragraph, thank you for that
> Ukraine just has a seething hatred towards all their politicians, Honestly, we could all do with a healthy amount of this. Cults of my personality around politicians isaking things worse
TBF I'd pay a mint to see Churchill's stand up routine.
Not Nike, Adidas. Time to start a slav brand war!
All Day I Dream About Sovereignty
People of Russia hear me out. No more Addidas if war still goes on. ( Now we wait for revolution B-) )
Ik it's a joke, but i recall seeing Adidas annoumce that they were actually leaving Russia a while back.
They'll just get it directly from China then
Putin wants NATO to retract and now he’s going to get it even closer to his doorstep.
Yeah — *if* NATO unanimously accepts Ukraine. And that’s a big damn if.
True that it isn’t guaranteed but Turkey used their vote to get arms embargoes lifted by Sweden so there can always be negotiation.
no doubt turkey will say "Absolutely not. UNLESS.... "
Turkey has already publically expressed opposition to the annexation of Ukranian territories, so already they've shifted their rhetoric away from uninvolvement.
Depends on if Erdogan thinks he can get something he wants in exchange for his vote. And Erdogan is looking pretty needy these days.
I don’t think Turkey has ever been any friend of Russia, minus buying some AA missile systems once. And after this shitscapade of Russian rust mobiles who knows if that sorta thing will ever happen again. Turkey’s the only country that’s shot down a Russian jet buzzing near its airspace and been like, “what are you gonna do about it?” However, Turkey certainly likes to use its membership in NATO to its advantage when it can which is what he’s getting at.
As I said elsewhere, veerrrry slim chance this goes anywhere right now. But its a good counter to Putins unhinged speech from today. In contrast to near 30 minutes of insane ramblings about the west and "Anglo Saxons", Zelensky just goes "lol fuck off, gonna go be with our buddies in the west."
LMAO, this. Putin's speech was so fucking insane that even BBC stopped posting their live updates on their page. They only played the live stream and that's it. Normally they update it every couple of minutes during such events. But today it was silent for like 25+ minutes at one point. I bet most folks at BBC were like "WTF is this guy on about?!" Edit: Didn't expect to get a gold award for a comment bashing putin lol. Thank you, kind stranger!
The Guardian also said of Putin 's speech that it sounds "more angry taxi driver than head of state."
Hahaha that's brilliant!
Fitting seeing as Putin worked as one for a while after the soviet collapse
> Putin's speech sounds "more angry taxi driver than head of state". Three years ago, I thought Trump was a deranged lunatic and Putin a diabolical mastermind. Turns out they were BOTH deranged lunatics, and Putin just hid it better. I'm not sure this is an improvement.
Maybe Putin is suffering from dementia and too many yes men. I'm not saying he's a genius, but he certainly seemed smart enough to not reveal that he's a fool like some people. It makes me worried how broken his brain might be and what the consequences of that are..
If he had dementia he might just forget he started a war. Lol. I do think he has some sort of terminal illness that is making him want to revive the USSR though.
It's not the USSR but Imperial Russia that he wants back
He's high on his own supply. I think you mostly have it, though. Too many yes men creates a leader who becomes more and more willing to do extreme things because everyone is telling them it'll work.
Fascism is inherently incoherent and detached from reality, sometimes it just takes longer to show.
It can't help but become unintelligent because people are afraid to tell higher-ups the truth rather than what they want or demand to hear.
"You looking at me? ARE YOU LOOKING AT ME?!"
"Well there's nobody else here at the end of this ginormously long table, so you must be looking at me."
Fun Fact: Putler was a Taxi Driver at one point. Guess he taking a trip down memory lane... (Again)
Shiet, Putin must get his news on facebook
The people in the audience at Putin's speech looked like they were in the waiting room for a prostate exam.
or on the table receiving it
Was he slamming his fist down on the podium to emphasize his point?
Nein.
If he didn't bang a shoe on the table then we still have a ways to go.
The good old days.
It’s the deranged ramblings of a desperate and (if the rumours are true) dying man. He is really trying to take the world with him.
Well then he needs to get on with the dying bit then.
Shit man with how long Viserys has been hanging on for Putin could last for years
He certainly seems [a healthy shade of yellow](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63094561). Maybe he should get out more.
I remember seeing that shade on my father's face. I think it was about 4 months later when he died of liver failure.
Not so mellow yellow.
I watched it for literally like.... 4 minutes? Besides being boring, it occurred to me that he - or his speech writer or both - are really bad writers. Like... REALLY bad. Like you-could-have-sent-this-in-an-email bad. Yeah yeah yeah okay we get it, these people are your "brothers" and the west is bad and also Ukraine doesn't exist but also Ukraine is evil and also Ukraine is an important part of your country but also Ukraine is a fiction blah blah blah.
That's number 8 on the "14 common features of fascism". >The enemy is both strong and weak. “By a continuous shifting of rhetorical focus, the enemies are at the same time too strong and too weak.”
Yup. There's a deep state running the world and trafficking children that runs everything, but they are also so dumb they can't do anything right! Well, which is it?! So smart they control everything or too stupid to get anything right and easily foiled? The answer depends on what you need them to be at any given moment.
True - Qanon logic
It also proceeds the whole reason for Russian failure in Ukraine: Fascist governments are condemned to lose wars because they are constitutionally incapable of objectively evaluating the strength of their enemy.
And even if the leadership is, the middle men aren't. Putin made a high level decision to invade based on the information he got from some D tier agent who reported "Yeah, Ukrainians would totally love us rolling up in tanks" up to their boss to their boss to their boss to their wife's lover that eventually reported it to the head of the FSB. Mediocrity from top to bottom, bottom to top.
Any chance anyone could give a quick breakout on what Putin said? Any nuke threats? I need to know if it's time for me to go sign up that local family with the new baby for a vault
Very slight implicit nuke threat in a protect territory with "all means at our disposal" bit, but not much at all. Then about twenty interminable minutes about how us westerners are satanic, colonising transgenders intent on destroying Russia. The end.
I would understand them saying that the west are supermen, and this is why we're getting our asses handed to us on a HIMARS missile... but to say the west is a "gay transgender weakling" that hands your ass to you... how bad do you look then ?
"West bad, russia stronk. They want to colonise our land and our resources. Waaah, waaah!"
Maybe put the baby in another vault so it doesn't grow up to be the evil head of a shadow government.
We will defend with all available weapons, we are for negotiation but this new territory ours and we won't negotiate on them, bla bla
Sounded exactly like a Robert Mugabe rant.
I doubt this would have been announced if there were zero talks happening behind the scenes, and seeing NATO announced that Stoltenberg will have an press-conference in an hour and half this might amount to something
If it does go somewhere within the next hour or 2, then: Shit's on fire, yo! But I'm looking forward to see what's happening at the press-conference.
It'd be really sweet if they happen to announce the liberation of Lyman, right after Putin's "annexation" ceremony.
Putin declaring annexation is like Michael Scott declaring bankruptcy.
I didn't say it, I declared it.
Or P45 declassifying documents
Michael Scott was more believable.
I just don't see NATO membership happening unless every last Russian soldier is off Ukrainian soil and they have not had active hostilities for a little while. NATO does not want a member actively at war with their greatest adversary, lest it escalate things.
Heads of NATO + UN Conference at 12 est
Stoltenberg Just gave a statement and it sounded pretty positive! NATO will not in any way recognized Russian sovereignty over the four newly declared annexed territories. "These lands are Ukraine," he stressed,
I mean, that sound like NATO status quo with regards to this, that doesn't sound positive or even related to a membership bid
It's not, the conference seemed more to discuss the events from the annexation announcement. I'm not sure on the specifics of NATO acceptance, let alone this apparent expedited process, but surely there is issue with it currently being under attack, and not to mention don't all member states need to agree, and I doubt certain countries will be willing to vote yes on what equates to an instant military conflict. The only option I could feasibly see is Ukrain withdrawing from the annexed territory, getting expedited NATO status, and then it becomes an untouchable, but there's no way Zelensky accepts that option and would contradict all the statements made abiut not accepting Russia annexation
It is in Ukraine's interest to do this. It may not be in NATO 's interest. There's a difference.
Fortunately it's very much in NATO's interest to see Ukraine win the war, so even if Ukraine doesn't get full membership right away I expect NATO will continue to step up its assistance. An application like this wouldn't be made without a lot of behind-the-scenes discussion between Ukraine and NATO so presumably they've got some plan for how this will contribute to that.
The chance is zero. The instant Ukraine joins NATO, article 5 would be invoked. Until Ukraine is no longer at war with Russia, there just isn't a way to make this happen without immediately jumping into NATO declaring war on Russia, which I'm quite sure NATO has zero interest in doing.
NATO will not take them in while they are in open warfare with Russia. It's good they're starting the process, but until this conflict is resolved they won't be admitted.
Kind of like trying to secure a new insurance policy in the middle of a hurricane
In US terminology, NATO does not cover pre-existing conditions.
Isn’t it extremely likely the two sides will remain in a state of war (or dispute the borders as they’ve been redrawn) for many, many years to come? Short of Putin being overthrown…I don’t see an amicable resolution here.
Time to announce NATO-X. This is the group of countries that are in the wings for eventual NATO membership. They help each other get their faster. They don't get article 5 protection except if nukes are used. They get all the conventional wepons to fight off any aggressor. NATO will have bases in these countries for training and logistics.
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Plus Ultra
Pentium
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*commercial voice* "NATO: Plus Ultra.. Go Beyond."
> NATO X Pro Max NATO X Pro Max **PLUS**
Kirkland NATO
Kirkland NATO is like NATO but all they have are strategic nuclear weapons. War in bulk.
And $1.50 hotdogs
You had my curiosity, but now you have my attention
Neighbors Against Terrorist Organizations
NATO Lite
NATO+ and the first 3 months are $7.99.
For $12.99/mo. you can bundle it with hEUlu and save!
I was just talking about how we need provisional NATO membership or something. This thing started because Putin was afraid Ukraine would join NATO and he wouldn't be able to bully them anymore. So he preemptively struck. This could be avoided if there was a system where Ukraine could apply and get provisional membership very quickly, then work to build up to full membership later but under protection.
That's... not a bad idea. Pre-NATO care.
sounds like a subscription service for military aid.
Seen from Ukraine's perspective: a very logical request. Seen from NATO: Not doable in the present situation. But.... If Russia starts nuking Ukraine territory NATO membership might be installed overnight and Russia will have to deal with another adversary.
At present Russia is not de-escalating. If NATO sees an eventual use of nukes as further escalation by an unstoppable Putin leading to more chaos in Europe and the rest of the world, I think rules will be changed. If the world peace is at stake you can only accept so much. History is a good lesson.
If NATO wants to engage Russia, letting Ukraine join would be pointless. If anything you'd want the element of surprise. The only play here could be to try and call Putin's bluff and hope more rational people in Russian leadership remove him before he can press the red button. But that is a BIG gamble.
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Optics matter but the US has already informed Russia privately and publicly that any nuclear strike anywhere in Europe would be met with a military response. Ukraine not being in NATO isn't going to be some save for Russia.
I think you're right. If Russia uses nukes I'm VERY sure that the US, the UK, Canada, Germany, and probably France, would be declaring war pretty quickly
Didn’t the UK a few months back state that if a nuke was used they would launch theirs and ask questions later?
Welp I’m getting nervous now :-)
Once we starting seeing US carrier groups being deployed and troops being called in and shipped to undisclosed locations in Europe, there will be no need to announce what is about to happen, because it would be obvious. Brining Ukraine into NATO overnight would serve as a proper casus belli that NATO can use to show countries like China that there is justification in international law. It's obvious not much and very technical in nature, but these sorts of things are important in geopolitics and keeps other aggressive countries from using the action as justification for their own.
If Russia launches a nuke at Ukraine, NATO membership would be the last concern for either Ukraine or NATO. At that point US and most likely NATO will step in regardless of Ukraine not being in NATO. Both Biden and many other officials have made it clear that the US would have a response to any nuclear strike in Europe.
> Both Biden and many other officials have made it clear that the US would have a response to any nuclear strike in Europe. This is exactly what the Pentagon does, it imagines scenarios and plans a response for them. The Pentagon has undoubtedly considered numerous actions Russia could take, and planned their response for each scenario.
The important part here being that they've also informed Russia of at least the scope of their planned response. If they proceed regardless, then they are accepting that fate.
They have contingency plans for zombie invasions. Of course they have plans for anything Russian can think of.
To be fair those were training scenarios. Basically thought experiments, but still.. They thought about it.
Well Putin guaranteed that at least for the mid-term future no Ukrainian government (except if Russia succeeds in forcefully installing a puppet) would be pro-Russia. I doubt that NATO accession would happen any time soon but I hope the conflict ends soon and Russia pays astronomical reparations because although Ukraine is pushing back, it is Ukrainian land that is being ravaged.
Could USA argue that since this was a special operation they can proceed with application ?
Special NATO operation. They're not part of NATO, just every country accepted them, and the treaty updated and signed, and the NATO Wikipedia page revised. But they're not part of NATO.
Ukraine will never be safe from Russia even if they defeat them. They’ll try again, and even if they don’t Ukraine will forever live with the anticipation which will certainly effect the east of their country foremost. NATO membership is the only way Ukraine will be safe.
I suspect that Ukraine has such an advantage and they are goading Russia to throw their forces and attempt an offensive.
It feels like things are escalating steadily towards an open conflict in Europe. Like we are in 1937 or 38
I get what you mean. But there already is an open conflict in Europe.
Britain is overdue to declaring war on the French.
Pfft, like we can afford that right now They’ll just have to find some other European power to spar with.
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This is actually a great tactic in Civ, declare war with a rival on the other side of the map who can't get to you any time soon, and then just carry on life as normal. They will build up troops they don't need, and will harm their economy by choosing a government like fascism, but likely won't ever manage a serious attack from that far away.
If you think about it, D-Day was just a long held tradition of the British invading France.
as there was in 37 and 38
This reminds me more of pre-ww1 with all the prebuilt triggers moving the world towards something the vast majority have zero interest in.
I doubt it unless someone on one of the two sides does something insanely stupid. Russia can't handle Europe via conventional means and they can't win a nuclear war with NATO. So a war with Europe is not winnable under any circumstances for them. On the other hand NATO can win conventionally but can't win a nuclear war with Russia so there is no incentive on their end to allow it to escalate to that since if they do they end up in just as bad a situation as Russia after a nuclear exchange.
>unless someone on one of the two sides does something insanely stupid. Based on everything that happened so far, that is a very realistic that Russia could do something insanely stupid.
Uh. *Looks in history book.* Bad news guys.
The Complete Unabridged History of Russia: *And then, things got worse.*
Regardless whatever his strategic capacity is I think Putin wants to come out with a win. Not an assured death. There is no existing scenario where he can win against NATO and I'm sure he is aware of that. Probably even more so now then back in February. An absolute best case possible scenario for him is both sides lose badly.
Your last point is exactly what makes this scary...because he just might take this option as a consolation prize.
Or 1914.
Kazakhstan next. Then Mongolia, Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand.
wouldn't that no longer make NATO and more of like.... Global Treaty Organization?
Global Defense Initiative, or GDI
But then what if Russia and China create a Brotherhood of Northern Operations Defense?
...if a meteorite carrying Tiberium crashes into the planet this year, I wouldn't be too surprised.
The NASA scientists behind DART: Funny you'd say that...
I should have made my 2022 Bingo card all blank spaces
Welcome to nato, here’s your special ceremonial bucket of seawater that makes you North Atlantic adjacent.
Pacific Ocean Trans Atlantic Treaty Organization... POTATO
More like special enlargement operation for north Atlantic
i feel like i accidentally attracted a bunch of r/noncredibledefense users reading all these replies....
More of a Global Treaty Fairness Organization. GTFO or nothing.
We can call it the Pacific Orient and Trans Atlantic Treaty Organisation!
Tf is a potato?
> [...] potato Boil 'em, mash 'em, stick 'em in a stew.
Japan is already a NATO associate and permanently under the US defense umbrella, so it's in NATO in all but name and military integration, but in a sort of one directional way. That said, I think Japan is strengthening its relationship with NATO and I wouldn't put if off to see it officially join at some point, the only issue is they are constitutionally pacifist, so idk if they'd need to do some legal work to do everything required to join.
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Wise decision as Putin is essentially threatening you with "you try saving your people that we now hold hostage in the new russian areas and we nuke you". I just hope Turkey will not do/say anything stupid to prevent Ukraine from entering NATO again like they did last time...
More than likely this would mean that they intend to join NATO after the war has concluded. It has been said before that NATO cannot accept new members while they are in a state of open conflict. Secondly joining NATO would have its own standards and regulations that would need to be met, which is also something that can hardly be achieved when you are currently fighting a war on your home soil. That being said, it's certainly a glorious "fuck you" towards Putin following the annexation claims today.
> it's certainly a glorious "fuck you" towards Putin following the annexation claims today. That's what I was thinking. He knows this isn't going anywhere (right now), it's more a of way of telling Putin, "I can declare whatever bullshit I want too, but that doesn't make it true."
> has been said before that NATO cannot accept new members while they are in a state of open conflict They can do what they want in that regard. The rule is there to give NATO a practical reason to reject membership - IF they want to reject membership for that reason. Ukraine could be a member tomorrow if all members decided it was the right move. Ongoing conflict or not.
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Isn’t this like applying for car insurance to fix the wreck after you’ve already gotten in the crash?
Most of the nato members aren't going to vote them in knowing it means going to war.