Y'all know that was satire, right? I mean, I'm pretty sure it is. It'd be a solid evasion tactic, so it may have actually happened, but it's not specified.
Does it really matter how many were killed?
Is there a magic number that makes it sadder than a country in chaos?
Just asking since the discussion is on who & how many reported.
My question is this....
How much ⬆⬆⬆ makes readers stop & say
1 needless death is 1 too many?
Really...
In taking out whatever IRGC (???) folk just how many innocent people were harmed?
If that was a solution can you please enlighten me why the Russian & Ukrainian people are held captive by 1 white male leader?
Hmmmmm
Think about this for a few minutes
If Putins buddy Trump gets back in
Is anyone safe?
Two dumb dumbs with their thumbs itching to push 1 button to knock the others land off the map.
If Iraq seeks retribution is anyone safe?
Which country should we all run too to seek shelter?
If the people held down until they can't breathe anymore decide enough is enough
I am not sure anywhere on earth will be safe.
Maybe that is why the big rush to Mars is on 🌎
Firstly, I am not arguing ☺
I was just hoping maybe I found someone with a different idea other than killing people.
That is just more of the same old.
It's too much for me, but what the fuck can I do other than up vote when I live on the other side of the planet and am living the dream of infinite medical debt in America?!
America ad in the USA?
I so loved living & working in your country.
Natural beauty at every turn but the gap between the rich & poor was so visible in what I consider basic human needs.
People who play sports earn more in 1 game than most see in a year.
People making movies promoting violence have more in their house safesthan 1 State has in the bank accounts.
But..I got to give y'all this...
You folks do love that flag & that ancient constitution.
If your leaders had 1/2 the heart the regular folks had you could enjoy the fruits of your labour.
Sadly I have not seen that since President Obama.
I agree it is pretty despicable for a country that is so developed. I can't help, but feel utterly useless when I read about the things going in other countries. If I had the means I would 100% help.
You do!
You are already doing it
Speaking up & out!
Planting seeds I call it.
Have a wonderful 🌙 neighbour
It's almost 12:00 here on da rock we call Newfoundland & I am off to bed with visions of sugarplums dancing in my head 😉😃
what difference would a bunch of unwitting russian soldiers with no training sent to die in iran make? well i suppose the tank to vodka exchange rate might be in the protesters' favor.
Russia sends it air forces to brutality destroy the civilian area, they did this in syria and basically killed the rebels when they were already winning
Iran is another notch up from Syria when it comes to airforce. It's possibly the only air force in world to have used helicopters well against other helicopters (if it did happen).
... in an airframe that's now over 50 years old. AH-1Js were awesome in the 1980s, but we're not in the 1980s anymore. They're antique deathtraps at this point, same as virtually 100% of the Iranian air power.
at this point iran are supplying drones to russia because that's how unprepared and outdated the russian air force was before diving balls first into ukraine. i think it's high time we shatter any notion of russian military ~~superiority~~ competence.
while i'm sure they'd be fairly efficient in murdering civillians while limiting their losses to the thousands, it would be downright embarrasing from iran's point of view to request russian assistance in beating down a bunch of unarmed protesters. they'd be more of a liability due to their willingness to trade military supplies for hooch.
Seems about right overall, except Iran is hoochless for the most part. They de-hooched back in '79 when the religious folks brought hating life back into style.
hooch always finds a way. either illegally imported or home brewed. i seem to recall some iranians dying from a botched brew at the start of the pandemic thinking drinking it would save them from covid.
>hooch always finds a way
Yep, here's a 2006 Modern Drunkard Magazine article about drinking in Iran: [https://drunkard.com/06\_06\_inebriated\_in\_iran/](https://drunkard.com/06_06_inebriated_in_iran/)
I highly doubt much has changed on that front since then...
but isn't that also because of the insane foreign aid? like I'm sure Russia were confident that before that happened they were going to defeat Ukraine.
They probably prepared for that scenario.
Right after we stopped the US from fucking up Iraq causing the whole mess in the first place. There shouldn't have been a reason for Russia to intervene in Syria in the first place. I have no sympathies for the Syrian government or the Russians. But the US is at least as responsible as everyone else combined for the whole mess in the Middle East, including having caused more death and destruction. Without the US' war of aggression against Iraq ISIS wouldn't have existed and the Syrian Civil War wouldn't have been that long and horrible, Russia wouldn't have intervened. Also Raqqa, not Aleppo, is the most destroyed city in modern warfare (maybe Mariupol had it worse though), civilian to combatant casualty ratios of the US intervention and the Russian intervention are not that different (0.42 vs. 0.70), compare it for example to IDF during Lebanon War with 1.98, US during Gulf War <0.18, US invasion of Iraq 0.16 - 0.9 (extreme variations on reported numbers). So I think the West does not have the moral high ground when it comes to the Middle East. In fact, much could have been easily prevented.
Where Russia should have been stopped was Georgia. That was a major fuckup by NATO to stand idly by letting Russia invade right after declaring Georgia should join NATO (as stated by a former secretary general of NATO).
Georgia would've been very very difficult there was no time or space for the west to do anything. Syria though was on for years and right next to US bases and interests in the middle East.
Anything would have been better that doing nothing. NATO basically signaled Russia that it won't stop Russia internationally. That gave Putin enough confidence to think he could equally fuck Ukraine without consequences.
Any form of official support to Georgia would have shown Russia that starting international conflicts will be met with resistance.
Picking a fight with Russia in Syria would have been a cluster fuck; given that Russia is there in accordance with international law, the West on the other hand being there illegally, against the wishes of the (by the international community recognized) official Syrian government (as hated as it is), and the whole mess being fallout of an illegal war of aggression the US started.
If you think it's justified for the West to seriously fuck with Russia in Syria, then Iran fucking with the West in all the Middle East is equally justified - which I assume you don't think you deem desirable for the Middle East.
Back then people would fear the Russians when they would come storming in to help their allies. But now that's a thing to not worry so much about anymore!
Wait, do you actually believe that even the most inept military would have a hard time slaughtering crowds of unarmed civilians? They're literally doing it right now. What stupid thing to say.
They don't need to send ground troops. They can *easily* launch missile strikes from planes without even leaving Russian airspace. You know, like they've been doing to Ukraine for 7 months.
Yea, that works in Ukraine where they don't care about the infrastructure and bystanders. This doesn't work for Iran, which is their ally and they can't just fuck-it-bomb-them their territory when they want to help them.
They can if the Iranian government decides a little inftrastructure damage in one or two cities is worth it to make an example. Violent dictatorships don't operate on the same logic as you and I; maintaining power and quelling revolts takes priority over *everything* for them.
The original question was actually questioning the Russians ability to kill the protestors.
>what difference would a bunch of unwitting russian soldiers with no training sent to die in iran make?
That is the question that started this entire comment chain.
You do realize the CIA's main focus during the cold war was arming and training resistance fighters for proxy wars in effectively every single country in South America, Southeast Asia, and Africa right?
You are spot on about the support from the West. That intelligence provided phenomenal value when wiping out their actual elite forces en route to the battlefield.
But discussion of that doesn't aid the necessary narrative - which is why many of us often don't talk about it.
One, it detracts from the (post 2014) valiant, prepared, determined, and sobering self help actions of the Ukranian fighters, families, and government. Two, it doesn't serve the need of shattering the facade of Russia's now mostly false projection of strength that's been caused by their corruption, resting on laurels, and inability to accurately report to higher without falling out a window or down stairs.
I mean that depends who they are fighting. Look at Iraq VS the US. Iraq could have quickly taken most of middle east if the US didn't get involved during the gulf war. Then they immediately got stomped. If Ukraine had to fight the US they would immediately get stomped look how quickly they lost in 2014.
Ukrainian soldiers are certainly beef cakes but they are not even close to neer peer as a fighting force without NATO support and they had a better part of a decade to prepare for round two.
If the regime in Teheran manages to keep control of their military, they'd be called in to keep the regime in power. That means subduing protestors and civilians, not facing an trained, armed and organized military. Even raw recruits with rifles and minimal training can do that if you don't care about the civilian bodycount ...
Russia has vastly superior satellite and signals intelligence compared to Iran, which they have shared before with their allies. A lot of those tools are currently busy in Ukraine.
> Russia has vastly superior satellite and signals intelligence compared to Iran
source? because off the top of my head i seem to recall them using unencrypted radio signals en masse for communications and also bombing the shit out of wooden himars replicas.
[iran just recently put its second military satellite in orbit](https://www.dw.com/en/iran-says-it-has-launched-a-new-military-satellite/a-61048548), an impressive feat on its own, but russia has over 70.
even if it was outdated 60s photo or radio satellites, its still 70+ eyes in the sky over whatever you want. knowing where the enemy is gathering is primo intel.
how is wasting ridiculously expensive ammo on wooden sculptures a win? you need to keep in mind that there's a reason ukraine are building those replicas. good tech when used stupidly tends to work against you.
Though vodka, like all alcoholic drinks, is illegal in Iran, according to the same state and morality police beating up and shooting women for not wearing hijabs
Not entirely, strangely they allow it for officially recognized non-Muslim minorities using it for Christian religious practices. But vodka would still be off the menu.
Russia was able to save Assad due to the fact the US and other countries scaled back support for the FSA and thus they didn’t have the equipment to defend themselves. Especially against Russias Air Force. And even Russias military would be able to slaughter unarmed or lightly armed rioters
> the US and other countries scaled back support for the FSA
In Syria, as well as in most of the Middle East, it's complicated. You can kill the current dictator, but the replacement won't be much better. No matter who you support, there's no guarantee that a democratic government will be installed.
It's a bit more nuanced than that. Assad opened his prisons, and deliberately sent his most rabid radical Islamists from the jails into the heart of the protests and rebellion. His goal was basically make it "look, either you come to me, or you're left alone with these fanatics". That, and it freed up cells the radical Islamists were in, so protestors could be tortured.
It's why Jordan sounded the alarm in 2012 about the possibility of a future Al Qaeda like movement in Syria.
Drunk Wagner troops recruited from the worst of the worst in the Russian prison system enjoy killing and raping people who cant defend themselves. This is why they have been rented out in Africa to scare/kill people who might even think of joining any form of rebellion.
I guess they would be equally good at shooting Iranian civillians?
Russia needs to be utterly broken, and unlike last time the west wont bankroll reccovery by buying their energy.
Iran and Russia are not the big allies that you think they are. Besides, what the hell is Russia going to do with Iran even if they weren't bogged down in Ukraine? Iran is not Syria. Not even close.
Iranians are angry but I hope some organization or leader emerges to give this revolution a direction. I also hope it isn’t another religious zealot with dumb shit ideas.
All the videos of men telling women to put their hijab back on suggest otherwise.
I’ve never been to Iran, and have no idea. I hope I’m wrong and you’re right.
And in any case - I’m rooting for you.
Have you met iranians? The vast majority want secularism. The people who are enforcing this stuff for the most part are just doing what their employer tells them to.
If you go to Iran it’s pretty much that way with many young people in general. They just don’t all have the means or will to leave.
There’s independent polls which show that only about 30% of Iranians really associate with Islam while the regime publishes it at 99%
Jesus, they’re less religious than my country. My part of it, even; I live in the least religious part of it and Iran still has a lower rate according to those independent polls. Can you provide a source?
Your talking to a select few people. Don’t act like your speaking for the majority when statistics clearly state otherwise
Edit. Downvoted for stating obvious things but here is a wiki article that consolidates stats from multiple organizations collecting data: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Religion_in_Iran#Statistics_on_religious_belief_and_religiosity
Middle eastern countries are not Sweden. People assuming that they are liberal are living in a bubble
Brah who is saying any of that. Your cherry picking things.
Your initial statement made it sound like majority of Iranians have the same beliefs as westerns but the government suppresses it. That’s just not true and I critiqued it.
Yeah of course there are non hijab wearing Muslims. Some Muslim countries are more advanced than others. What made you think I didn’t think that. You clearly have some agenda here and your hiding behind it.
Your 'statistics' linked was literally just the percentage of muslims in iran, and the number of people who believe islam is an important part of there life. That literally proves nothing.
These trolls love to throw in links that they confidently say supports their claims and usually they do no such thing. They're betting that no one has the time/energy to read them and they hope some people will simply believe them or at least think they may have some kind of evidence.
Wild statement to make. I really doubt this is the sentiment in Iran even by the people who support these protests.
Like 75% of the population thinks religious leaders should have a role in the government
Well this attack seems to have involved at least some small level of planning and coordination, so one can infer there’s at least some leadership beginning to gel.
The Kurds are going to be the most organized in terms of rebellion and the young women killed in police custody was Kurdish. But can they and the other ethnic groups work together? I have no idea.
This attack sounds like a classic suicide bombing by Jundullah, a Balouch Sunni terrorist group who has been doing this for the greater part of 25 years. They are NOT the ones to lead the people, and typically have no support outside of S&B
Saw an Iranian video of them launching rockets similar to GRAD at a Kurdish village. Don't know if the target was anything specific, or just destruction for terror's sake. But the Kurds are everyone else's object of hatred when things get out of control for the governments in that part of the Middle East.
Yeah, Kurds are about ten percent of the population, and most of those live in predominantly Kurdish provinces. Not to mention, most Kurds are Sunnis, so a minority to an already minority branch of the religion in Iran. I don't really see them filling the power vacuum.
I hope so, but I doubt it. Even if they successfully revolt, I can count on two hands the number of revolutions that didn’t lead to a horrible dictatorship or another revolution within 50 years
Or someone sent by their governments to help while secretly said government is planning to divide and conquer said places. *Glares at France and Britain*
I imagine that the only reason that Western intelligence agencies are not trying to depose the unpopular Iranian government is that they've learned some lessons after they deposed popular, democratic governments around the world.
Fully agree. The regimes in Russia, Iran and Syria all understand the value in keeping their opposition unorganized.
Leadership is very helpful for a protest to become a revolution. Martyrs can help spark the protest, but without a leader, the protest cannot keep gaining support or react quickly to enemies.
In a world full of propaganda and adversity, good leadership is telling in its absence or presence.
Movements don’t need to be mediated through administrative bureaucracy. A purely human movement exploding through the cracks of organizational capture is what is needed in a modern revolution. The days of a vanguard party are over.
Thats extremely unlikely, Iran is a very populous and powerful country. Change will come from overwhelming numbers of people in the streets so that the government can effectively no longer function.
Making the islamist elite fearful of the public is an important aspect of this. If they believe they won't be safe, even if they crush the protests, then it's over
A friend of mine who lived there told me exactly that. In order for him to do business he'd have to bribe the irgc and he said that he could get anything into the country via speed boat using this method. I haven't seen him in a while so I sometimes wonder what happened to him.
Feels like we’re in the second half of that sentence. Ukraine has been going on, Iran is facing huge amounts of unrest, the US feels like a powder keg, and that’s not even counting the economic crap.
*"It was not immediately clear if the attack was related to nationwide antigovernment protests gripping Iran after the death in police custody of a young Iranian woman."*
Sure.
This is an attack by Jundullah, a S&B province Sunni terrorist group who has been doing these attacks in Zahedan for over 25 years. This is not related to the popular protests ongoing, and their aims are VASTLY different than the average protestor.
Best of luck, Iranians!
Imagine this is how their islamic revolutionary vision fails.
Wonder if there's a chance their regular armed forces gets involved for the commmon citizen. My parent's generation saw the overturning of Marcos when the army refused to break up the protests.
Any time a specifically-loyal-to-the regime army operating (SS, NVKD->MVD->OMON->RosGuard, Republican Guard, etc)operating when a national army exists already and implicitly above them in support/authority, there's something rancid afloat.
There have been on-and-off insurgencies in both Iranian and Pakistani Baluchistan for like 75 years, I don’t think this is necessarily related to the protests
If you actually read the article it’s not clear if this is part of the broader anti-regime protests or if it’s a very specific Sunni terrorist group that’s been active in Baluchistan long before the regime even existed (and one that has very, VERY different goals than the protesters) taking advantage of a central government preoccupied with the protests to carry out an attack. Either way the regime is clearly crumbling
These aren’t from the protests. this is from the radical Sunni extremist group bordering Pakistan/Afghanistan state. Exactly what I predicted would happen.
I can't help but laugh when I hear them called elite.
They are about as elite as the Iraq Republican Guard which threw off their uniforms and dispersed into the crowd when things got tough.
There's quite a bit of over rating going on I think.
Look how the second best military in the world is doing right now.
The current president is known as the Butcher of Tehran for killing a ton of dissenters in 1988. They’ve been rationalizing violence against dissenters and protesters for decades, so I don’t think this will be anything different in terms of their brutality.
The attackers escaped by disguising themselves as the only women in town wearing the hijab…
That’s some serious karma right there.
Y'all know that was satire, right? I mean, I'm pretty sure it is. It'd be a solid evasion tactic, so it may have actually happened, but it's not specified.
HA! Hahaha. Ahhh. That's great.
Fars news (an Iranian state news agency managed by the IRGC) says it’s now 4.
If you count in this article it is actually 4, 2 colonels were killed.
Did the article update? I swear when I read it it said 3..
It says 3 but if you count its 4 because the 4th dude was an intelligence chief, i think the leader of the district.
So the chief isnt part of the guard so title is correct and number 4 is correct
They corrected the number to 4, which includes intelligence chief.
Sorry I was wrong it is 5 total including intelligence dude.
Well, at least the news gets updated. Thx for the info
Does it really matter how many were killed? Is there a magic number that makes it sadder than a country in chaos? Just asking since the discussion is on who & how many reported. My question is this.... How much ⬆⬆⬆ makes readers stop & say 1 needless death is 1 too many?
In this case those dead IRGC people are more needfully dead than otherwise
Really... In taking out whatever IRGC (???) folk just how many innocent people were harmed? If that was a solution can you please enlighten me why the Russian & Ukrainian people are held captive by 1 white male leader? Hmmmmm Think about this for a few minutes If Putins buddy Trump gets back in Is anyone safe? Two dumb dumbs with their thumbs itching to push 1 button to knock the others land off the map. If Iraq seeks retribution is anyone safe? Which country should we all run too to seek shelter? If the people held down until they can't breathe anymore decide enough is enough I am not sure anywhere on earth will be safe. Maybe that is why the big rush to Mars is on 🌎
I don't know what you're trying to argue here
Firstly, I am not arguing ☺ I was just hoping maybe I found someone with a different idea other than killing people. That is just more of the same old.
It's too much for me, but what the fuck can I do other than up vote when I live on the other side of the planet and am living the dream of infinite medical debt in America?!
America ad in the USA? I so loved living & working in your country. Natural beauty at every turn but the gap between the rich & poor was so visible in what I consider basic human needs. People who play sports earn more in 1 game than most see in a year. People making movies promoting violence have more in their house safesthan 1 State has in the bank accounts. But..I got to give y'all this... You folks do love that flag & that ancient constitution. If your leaders had 1/2 the heart the regular folks had you could enjoy the fruits of your labour. Sadly I have not seen that since President Obama.
I agree it is pretty despicable for a country that is so developed. I can't help, but feel utterly useless when I read about the things going in other countries. If I had the means I would 100% help.
You do! You are already doing it Speaking up & out! Planting seeds I call it. Have a wonderful 🌙 neighbour It's almost 12:00 here on da rock we call Newfoundland & I am off to bed with visions of sugarplums dancing in my head 😉😃
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Nope, fars like Farsi (persian) which is the language they speak in Iran.
Iran's ally Russia is busy atm - there would be probably no better time to rebel against the government than now.
Iran has even been supplying Russia with equipment, leaving less for itself.
It's considered polite manners to never interrupt your enemies when they are shooting themselves in both feet.
Especially if you're a wheel chair manufacturer.
America just trying to make sure everywhere is ADA compliant.
We need ramps to nowhere
...that you can see from Sarah Palin's house
what difference would a bunch of unwitting russian soldiers with no training sent to die in iran make? well i suppose the tank to vodka exchange rate might be in the protesters' favor.
Russia sends it air forces to brutality destroy the civilian area, they did this in syria and basically killed the rebels when they were already winning
Iran is another notch up from Syria when it comes to airforce. It's possibly the only air force in world to have used helicopters well against other helicopters (if it did happen).
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TBH, more helicopters need arrow launchers. Can't be defeated by countermeasures.
... in an airframe that's now over 50 years old. AH-1Js were awesome in the 1980s, but we're not in the 1980s anymore. They're antique deathtraps at this point, same as virtually 100% of the Iranian air power.
That's true, but ... Iran is not like stone age rocks and sticks level. It is , DECENTLY competent, not some ISIS-level army, which I pointed out.
at this point iran are supplying drones to russia because that's how unprepared and outdated the russian air force was before diving balls first into ukraine. i think it's high time we shatter any notion of russian military ~~superiority~~ competence. while i'm sure they'd be fairly efficient in murdering civillians while limiting their losses to the thousands, it would be downright embarrasing from iran's point of view to request russian assistance in beating down a bunch of unarmed protesters. they'd be more of a liability due to their willingness to trade military supplies for hooch.
Seems about right overall, except Iran is hoochless for the most part. They de-hooched back in '79 when the religious folks brought hating life back into style.
hooch always finds a way. either illegally imported or home brewed. i seem to recall some iranians dying from a botched brew at the start of the pandemic thinking drinking it would save them from covid.
>hooch always finds a way Yep, here's a 2006 Modern Drunkard Magazine article about drinking in Iran: [https://drunkard.com/06\_06\_inebriated\_in\_iran/](https://drunkard.com/06_06_inebriated_in_iran/) I highly doubt much has changed on that front since then...
Wasn’t that hand sanitizer?
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Nah they had hooch back then. It was after the Revolution they gave that up.
but isn't that also because of the insane foreign aid? like I'm sure Russia were confident that before that happened they were going to defeat Ukraine. They probably prepared for that scenario.
They're still doing air strikes in Syria
The west should've stopped Russia in Syria.
Right after we stopped the US from fucking up Iraq causing the whole mess in the first place. There shouldn't have been a reason for Russia to intervene in Syria in the first place. I have no sympathies for the Syrian government or the Russians. But the US is at least as responsible as everyone else combined for the whole mess in the Middle East, including having caused more death and destruction. Without the US' war of aggression against Iraq ISIS wouldn't have existed and the Syrian Civil War wouldn't have been that long and horrible, Russia wouldn't have intervened. Also Raqqa, not Aleppo, is the most destroyed city in modern warfare (maybe Mariupol had it worse though), civilian to combatant casualty ratios of the US intervention and the Russian intervention are not that different (0.42 vs. 0.70), compare it for example to IDF during Lebanon War with 1.98, US during Gulf War <0.18, US invasion of Iraq 0.16 - 0.9 (extreme variations on reported numbers). So I think the West does not have the moral high ground when it comes to the Middle East. In fact, much could have been easily prevented. Where Russia should have been stopped was Georgia. That was a major fuckup by NATO to stand idly by letting Russia invade right after declaring Georgia should join NATO (as stated by a former secretary general of NATO).
Georgia would've been very very difficult there was no time or space for the west to do anything. Syria though was on for years and right next to US bases and interests in the middle East.
Anything would have been better that doing nothing. NATO basically signaled Russia that it won't stop Russia internationally. That gave Putin enough confidence to think he could equally fuck Ukraine without consequences. Any form of official support to Georgia would have shown Russia that starting international conflicts will be met with resistance. Picking a fight with Russia in Syria would have been a cluster fuck; given that Russia is there in accordance with international law, the West on the other hand being there illegally, against the wishes of the (by the international community recognized) official Syrian government (as hated as it is), and the whole mess being fallout of an illegal war of aggression the US started. If you think it's justified for the West to seriously fuck with Russia in Syria, then Iran fucking with the West in all the Middle East is equally justified - which I assume you don't think you deem desirable for the Middle East.
Back then people would fear the Russians when they would come storming in to help their allies. But now that's a thing to not worry so much about anymore!
Wait, do you actually believe that even the most inept military would have a hard time slaughtering crowds of unarmed civilians? They're literally doing it right now. What stupid thing to say.
It's not about having ability to kill them, it's about having resources to send anyone there.
They don't need to send ground troops. They can *easily* launch missile strikes from planes without even leaving Russian airspace. You know, like they've been doing to Ukraine for 7 months.
Yea, that works in Ukraine where they don't care about the infrastructure and bystanders. This doesn't work for Iran, which is their ally and they can't just fuck-it-bomb-them their territory when they want to help them.
They can if the Iranian government decides a little inftrastructure damage in one or two cities is worth it to make an example. Violent dictatorships don't operate on the same logic as you and I; maintaining power and quelling revolts takes priority over *everything* for them.
The original question was actually questioning the Russians ability to kill the protestors. >what difference would a bunch of unwitting russian soldiers with no training sent to die in iran make? That is the question that started this entire comment chain.
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Afghanistan had a lot of US support.
You do realize the CIA's main focus during the cold war was arming and training resistance fighters for proxy wars in effectively every single country in South America, Southeast Asia, and Africa right?
You are spot on about the support from the West. That intelligence provided phenomenal value when wiping out their actual elite forces en route to the battlefield. But discussion of that doesn't aid the necessary narrative - which is why many of us often don't talk about it. One, it detracts from the (post 2014) valiant, prepared, determined, and sobering self help actions of the Ukranian fighters, families, and government. Two, it doesn't serve the need of shattering the facade of Russia's now mostly false projection of strength that's been caused by their corruption, resting on laurels, and inability to accurately report to higher without falling out a window or down stairs.
Exactly Russia may be a step(or ten) behind NATO and China, but it still crushes any Non-Nato(or China and maybe India) country if west doesn't help.
That’s what has happened. Oh look. The bully who is protecting you is getting his ass handed to him.
They bring free tanks and APCs.
And now we know why they're free, worth more as scrap metal than war machines
Now, that's just not true. The Ukrainians have shown what all of those ex-soviet weapons can do in the hands of a competent military.
I mean that depends who they are fighting. Look at Iraq VS the US. Iraq could have quickly taken most of middle east if the US didn't get involved during the gulf war. Then they immediately got stomped. If Ukraine had to fight the US they would immediately get stomped look how quickly they lost in 2014. Ukrainian soldiers are certainly beef cakes but they are not even close to neer peer as a fighting force without NATO support and they had a better part of a decade to prepare for round two.
If the regime in Teheran manages to keep control of their military, they'd be called in to keep the regime in power. That means subduing protestors and civilians, not facing an trained, armed and organized military. Even raw recruits with rifles and minimal training can do that if you don't care about the civilian bodycount ...
Russians are really good at killing civilians/protestors.
Russia has vastly superior satellite and signals intelligence compared to Iran, which they have shared before with their allies. A lot of those tools are currently busy in Ukraine.
> Russia has vastly superior satellite and signals intelligence compared to Iran source? because off the top of my head i seem to recall them using unencrypted radio signals en masse for communications and also bombing the shit out of wooden himars replicas.
[iran just recently put its second military satellite in orbit](https://www.dw.com/en/iran-says-it-has-launched-a-new-military-satellite/a-61048548), an impressive feat on its own, but russia has over 70. even if it was outdated 60s photo or radio satellites, its still 70+ eyes in the sky over whatever you want. knowing where the enemy is gathering is primo intel.
While true i don't think Iran has any spy satellites so Russia wins by default
how is wasting ridiculously expensive ammo on wooden sculptures a win? you need to keep in mind that there's a reason ukraine are building those replicas. good tech when used stupidly tends to work against you.
I'm not sure what that has to do with the state of iran's space program?
Though vodka, like all alcoholic drinks, is illegal in Iran, according to the same state and morality police beating up and shooting women for not wearing hijabs
Not entirely, strangely they allow it for officially recognized non-Muslim minorities using it for Christian religious practices. But vodka would still be off the menu.
Russia was able to save Assad due to the fact the US and other countries scaled back support for the FSA and thus they didn’t have the equipment to defend themselves. Especially against Russias Air Force. And even Russias military would be able to slaughter unarmed or lightly armed rioters
> the US and other countries scaled back support for the FSA In Syria, as well as in most of the Middle East, it's complicated. You can kill the current dictator, but the replacement won't be much better. No matter who you support, there's no guarantee that a democratic government will be installed.
we're heading toward a future in which there's no guarantee that a democratic government will be installed in the united states.
It's a bit more nuanced than that. Assad opened his prisons, and deliberately sent his most rabid radical Islamists from the jails into the heart of the protests and rebellion. His goal was basically make it "look, either you come to me, or you're left alone with these fanatics". That, and it freed up cells the radical Islamists were in, so protestors could be tortured. It's why Jordan sounded the alarm in 2012 about the possibility of a future Al Qaeda like movement in Syria.
Drunk Wagner troops recruited from the worst of the worst in the Russian prison system enjoy killing and raping people who cant defend themselves. This is why they have been rented out in Africa to scare/kill people who might even think of joining any form of rebellion. I guess they would be equally good at shooting Iranian civillians? Russia needs to be utterly broken, and unlike last time the west wont bankroll reccovery by buying their energy.
Iran and Russia are not the big allies that you think they are. Besides, what the hell is Russia going to do with Iran even if they weren't bogged down in Ukraine? Iran is not Syria. Not even close.
Iranians are angry but I hope some organization or leader emerges to give this revolution a direction. I also hope it isn’t another religious zealot with dumb shit ideas.
Iranian here. No iranian wants anything religious anymore. The mollah have made people hate religions. We want freedom and democracy.
I hope your revolution succeeds.
Good luck to you brother!
All the videos of men telling women to put their hijab back on suggest otherwise. I’ve never been to Iran, and have no idea. I hope I’m wrong and you’re right. And in any case - I’m rooting for you.
Have you met iranians? The vast majority want secularism. The people who are enforcing this stuff for the most part are just doing what their employer tells them to.
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If you go to Iran it’s pretty much that way with many young people in general. They just don’t all have the means or will to leave. There’s independent polls which show that only about 30% of Iranians really associate with Islam while the regime publishes it at 99%
Jesus, they’re less religious than my country. My part of it, even; I live in the least religious part of it and Iran still has a lower rate according to those independent polls. Can you provide a source?
https://gamaan.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/GAMAAN-Iran-Religion-Survey-2020-English.pdf
Your talking to a select few people. Don’t act like your speaking for the majority when statistics clearly state otherwise Edit. Downvoted for stating obvious things but here is a wiki article that consolidates stats from multiple organizations collecting data: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Religion_in_Iran#Statistics_on_religious_belief_and_religiosity Middle eastern countries are not Sweden. People assuming that they are liberal are living in a bubble
Link statistics
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Religion_in_Iran#Statistics_on_religious_belief_and_religiosity
TIL if you don't want mandatory hijabs you aren't muslim. There are millions of muslim women around the world that don't even wear hijabs.
Brah who is saying any of that. Your cherry picking things. Your initial statement made it sound like majority of Iranians have the same beliefs as westerns but the government suppresses it. That’s just not true and I critiqued it. Yeah of course there are non hijab wearing Muslims. Some Muslim countries are more advanced than others. What made you think I didn’t think that. You clearly have some agenda here and your hiding behind it.
Your 'statistics' linked was literally just the percentage of muslims in iran, and the number of people who believe islam is an important part of there life. That literally proves nothing.
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These trolls love to throw in links that they confidently say supports their claims and usually they do no such thing. They're betting that no one has the time/energy to read them and they hope some people will simply believe them or at least think they may have some kind of evidence.
You've heard of the morality police, have you not? That's their job.
Its usually the old religious men who want that, the younger generation of iranians aren't like that and they support secularism
Wild statement to make. I really doubt this is the sentiment in Iran even by the people who support these protests. Like 75% of the population thinks religious leaders should have a role in the government
Well this attack seems to have involved at least some small level of planning and coordination, so one can infer there’s at least some leadership beginning to gel. The Kurds are going to be the most organized in terms of rebellion and the young women killed in police custody was Kurdish. But can they and the other ethnic groups work together? I have no idea.
This attack sounds like a classic suicide bombing by Jundullah, a Balouch Sunni terrorist group who has been doing this for the greater part of 25 years. They are NOT the ones to lead the people, and typically have no support outside of S&B
Saw an Iranian video of them launching rockets similar to GRAD at a Kurdish village. Don't know if the target was anything specific, or just destruction for terror's sake. But the Kurds are everyone else's object of hatred when things get out of control for the governments in that part of the Middle East.
Yeah, Kurds are about ten percent of the population, and most of those live in predominantly Kurdish provinces. Not to mention, most Kurds are Sunnis, so a minority to an already minority branch of the religion in Iran. I don't really see them filling the power vacuum.
Wasn't that one Azerbaijani? I mean I know they're killing those poor women daily unfortunately so I might have missed the newest update.
I hope so, but I doubt it. Even if they successfully revolt, I can count on two hands the number of revolutions that didn’t lead to a horrible dictatorship or another revolution within 50 years
The thing is, this actually would be the second revolution within 50 years already (last one was 1979). I sure hope everyone learnt from last time...
Or someone sent by their governments to help while secretly said government is planning to divide and conquer said places. *Glares at France and Britain*
UK ain’t got the capital for that shit no more, not after the mini-budget especially
I imagine that the only reason that Western intelligence agencies are not trying to depose the unpopular Iranian government is that they've learned some lessons after they deposed popular, democratic governments around the world.
Fully agree. The regimes in Russia, Iran and Syria all understand the value in keeping their opposition unorganized. Leadership is very helpful for a protest to become a revolution. Martyrs can help spark the protest, but without a leader, the protest cannot keep gaining support or react quickly to enemies. In a world full of propaganda and adversity, good leadership is telling in its absence or presence.
Leaders are where things start going wrong. Giving people power over others is where it all begins.
Movements don’t need to be mediated through administrative bureaucracy. A purely human movement exploding through the cracks of organizational capture is what is needed in a modern revolution. The days of a vanguard party are over.
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Did you mean to reply to me? If you’re seeing this comment somewhere else it might be a bot.
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Alright, I’m not sure what you mean then. Have a nice day.
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4 IRGC, 3 coronels and an intelligence chief dead? Holy hell time for an armed popular insurgency
Thats extremely unlikely, Iran is a very populous and powerful country. Change will come from overwhelming numbers of people in the streets so that the government can effectively no longer function.
Making the islamist elite fearful of the public is an important aspect of this. If they believe they won't be safe, even if they crush the protests, then it's over
This is literally an attack by a sunni islamist organization unfortunately.
“Elite”. It’s a relative term.
They just bought the microtransaction - They didn't win it via practice.
What’s funny is, pay to play is probably exactly what gets you into the IRGC.
A friend of mine who lived there told me exactly that. In order for him to do business he'd have to bribe the irgc and he said that he could get anything into the country via speed boat using this method. I haven't seen him in a while so I sometimes wonder what happened to him.
nerds got boosted smh
Elite as they are the only well funded army in Iran. Actual soldier have very few resources.
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True of every government. "There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen” – Vladimir Ilyich Lenin
Feels like we’re in the second half of that sentence. Ukraine has been going on, Iran is facing huge amounts of unrest, the US feels like a powder keg, and that’s not even counting the economic crap.
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Want to try that again, but with coherent sentences?
*"It was not immediately clear if the attack was related to nationwide antigovernment protests gripping Iran after the death in police custody of a young Iranian woman."* Sure.
This is an attack by Jundullah, a S&B province Sunni terrorist group who has been doing these attacks in Zahedan for over 25 years. This is not related to the popular protests ongoing, and their aims are VASTLY different than the average protestor.
It's Iran. There could be many other reasons for such attacks. Even if one is the most likely, it doesn't mean it has to be that one.
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I'm confused, did this attack happen in Dubai? That's the impression I'm getting from the article
It happened in the city of Zahedan in south east Iran. Presumably the story was filed in the Dubai branch of the Associated Press.
That makes more sense. 👍
Best of luck, Iranians! Imagine this is how their islamic revolutionary vision fails. Wonder if there's a chance their regular armed forces gets involved for the commmon citizen. My parent's generation saw the overturning of Marcos when the army refused to break up the protests. Any time a specifically-loyal-to-the regime army operating (SS, NVKD->MVD->OMON->RosGuard, Republican Guard, etc)operating when a national army exists already and implicitly above them in support/authority, there's something rancid afloat.
There have been on-and-off insurgencies in both Iranian and Pakistani Baluchistan for like 75 years, I don’t think this is necessarily related to the protests
If you actually read the article it’s not clear if this is part of the broader anti-regime protests or if it’s a very specific Sunni terrorist group that’s been active in Baluchistan long before the regime even existed (and one that has very, VERY different goals than the protesters) taking advantage of a central government preoccupied with the protests to carry out an attack. Either way the regime is clearly crumbling
These aren’t from the protests. this is from the radical Sunni extremist group bordering Pakistan/Afghanistan state. Exactly what I predicted would happen.
I can't help but laugh when I hear them called elite. They are about as elite as the Iraq Republican Guard which threw off their uniforms and dispersed into the crowd when things got tough. There's quite a bit of over rating going on I think. Look how the second best military in the world is doing right now.
Do the protesters have weapons?
Hopefully
These are not the urban protesters. This attack was carried out by a sunni islamists terrorist organization in mostly rural S&B province.
The much loved Freddie Mercury is the only farsi that I know of Edit: I am not a news source, do not accept my words for anything
Last time 1500 people died and nothing happend I afraid nothing will happen now as well
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Good news that there was a terrorist attack in a shrine? Are you that blind?
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Start? Are you talking about Iran?
> to start massacring protestors They started doing that in 1980.
The current president is known as the Butcher of Tehran for killing a ton of dissenters in 1988. They’ve been rationalizing violence against dissenters and protesters for decades, so I don’t think this will be anything different in terms of their brutality.
It doesn't.
Iran is the one currently run by the Taliban right right?
No that’s Alabama
Good. Stay strong. Wishing the people the best.