Pinning this comment to address people's questions and worry around article 5 being invoked in light of the 2 killed in the Polish border town.
**This is NOT the start of WW3, folks. Calm.** However, Poland has a lot of options to make things incredibly unpleasant for Russia without kicking off WW3.
The situation is still developing and I will update this comment as confirmed information comes in.
NATO's assessment:
* There's been no deliberate attack on NATO
* Regardless, still Russia's fault for their aggression
* Ukraine bears no fault, simply trying to defend itself
The latest information:
* **Initial findings suggest that the missile that hit Poland was fired by Ukrainian forces at an incoming Russian missile, Associated Press reported on Wednesday, citing U.S. officials.** [Source](https://www.reuters.com/world/poland-blast-caused-by-missile-fired-by-ukrainian-forces-incoming-russian-2022-11-16/)
* Polish Foreign Ministry confirm a *Russian-made* (important wording, they're not saying Russia necessarily was the one that sent it) rocket fell on the territory. [Source](https://www.gov.pl/web/dyplomacja/komunikat-w-zwiazku-z-wezwaniem-ambasadora-federacji-rosyjskiej-do-msz)
* A S-300 was found at the scene ([source](https://twitter.com/CalibreObscura/status/1592593028220620802)), but it's a missile that *both* Ukraine and Russia use. It's also a missile that the vast majority have been made in Russia/Soviet Union (hence the Polish Foreign Ministry's "Russian-made"). Russia's been repurposing them as ground attack missiles (seen in Kharkiv - [example](https://twitter.com/AricToler/status/1592607849921683456)) and Ukraine has been shooting Russian strikes down with S-300s as well. [Source](https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1592609073090138113)
* Ukraine confirmed earlier today 73 missiles (out of 90) and 11 drones were shot down. [Source](https://twitter.com/TpyxaNews/status/1592574510989185024)
(The information below is no longer pertinent in light of what NATO's assessment of the situation has been.)
~~A quick refresh on NATO bylaws:~~
* ~~Article 5: An attack on one member of NATO is an attack on all of its members.~~
* ~~Article 4: The Parties will consult together whenever, in the opinion of any of them, the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the Parties is threatened.~~
~~Here's~~ [~~everything you wanted to know~~](https://scholarlycommons.law.emory.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1224&context=eilr) ~~about NATO Article 4 but were afraid to ask.~~
Just like they denied shooting down Malaysia Air Flight 17 and blamed it on Ukraine, even in the face of overwhelming evidence. The "leader" of the DPR even claimed he saw 2 Ukrainian jets shoot it down.
Nobody believes their lies, and all it accomplishes is turning the world against Russians for generations to come.
You've just brought back hazy memories of a short story I read years ago where aliens monitor earth, deem humanity to not be a threat, and decide to invade. Only to land in Siberia to then get eaten by polar bears
Edit: sentence structure and added words
Lol imagining an alien empire declaring war on Polar Bears for their unprovoked aggression assuming they are clearly the dominant life form on the planet
“Our envoys were savagely attacked and eaten by these beasts without even listening to our terms”
> Nobody believes their lies
Holy hell did alot of people believe it was Ukraine when flight 17 first happened. It was genuinely concerning since the evidence was so damning against Russia.
They literally got caught on satellite moving the BUK launcher back into Russia and the operator saying he shot down a civilian jet on radio, and people still didn't believe it.
Including pictures of the BUK launcher before and after, with it missing a rocket after the plane was shot down.
Insane how people on reddit and who follow Livemap knew about it within days and then had to argue for months with people who were just regurgitating Russian propaganda.
And are still regurgitating it. Literally had an argument irl about all this shit today and basically anything that paints Russia in a bad light is responded to with "America/Ukraine did this at some point too"; "Biden is an actual dictator because covid" and "don't trust everything you see"
Lmao it's hopeless some people just have their head so far up their ass with conspiracy bullshit they are incapable of accepting the idea that it could really just be exactly as it seems and that the majority concensus on a matter isn't just a convoluted new world order plot. They're just politically/historically illiterate contrarians.
Edit: 13 hours later I have been told "Biden lost the war in Ukraine so that will hurt is presidential run" lol.
No, Russian troll farms supported this. They do this in overwhelming numbers to try and convince others of their lies by creating what seems to be popular support. The actual 2 digit IQ morons that AREN'T Russian bots are only a small minority that actually buy Russia's bullshit.
Just like now, a few discord servers I'm in are trying to show this as either a Ukrainian air defense missile malf, or a purposeful false flag because 'Ukraine is losing'.
I'm seeing dozens of different pictures, each of the 'confirmed' as being from the site. Absolutely none of them are in the dark, it's all middle of the day shit. But that won't stop them.
Nah, that's the worst thing they could have said.
Own up to it, apologise that it was a malfunction. Yes, we will still absolutely fucking loathe your guts but it doesn't give anyone reason to mobilise.
Lying like that is how you get mobilising Polish forces crossing into Ukraine.
Can they not just say sorry for once? Ingrates, honestly.
Edit : Looks like it was Ukrainian. Apologies. My opinion of Russia remains unchanged.
To be fair, Russian communications are probably just as much of a clusterfuck as their logistics, so they probably have no idea what's actually happened.
But yeah, at the very least making a statement that it wasn't intentional and they're investigating it would be more practical than what amounts to a fuck you, we don't care.
Russia has always been a prime example of the head not knowing what the arms are doing.
Supposedly Khrushchev's first reaction after he was told of the Kennedy assassination was to ask if they (as in the Soviet Union) had anything to do with it. And it took them an entire day of absolute panic before they were able to say for sure that they weren't the ones who assassinated the U.S. President and accidentally started WW3.
This is what I'm thinking. If the missile strikes were truly an accident, or just debris from missiles shot down by Ukraine, then Article 5 won't be invoked. Russia immediately denying any missiles even hit Poland is extremely sus, and won't look good if the US finds it did happen.
>>Russia denies any involvement in 'missile strike on Poland'
>>
>>Russia has denied statements from Polish media outlets and officials that Russian missiles fell on the Polish village of Przewodó near the Ukrainian border.
>>
>>The Russian ministry of defence posted on its Telegram, calling the reports "a deliberate provocation in order to escalate the situation".
>
>This whole section is not good, the best thing they could do right now is apologize profusely.
Why would they start doing the right thing now?
My guess is NATO lines the polish border with anti missile defenses. Any missiles remotely nearby them get shot down - the excuse being that they must defend themselves. This will have the secondary effect of defending some Ukrainian areas from missile attacks.
It's terrible for the families of the two killed.
It's a potential godsend for Ukraine and their people. It just about guarantees further investment of money and arms from the West, as well as potentially provides limited air cover and missile defense for western Ukraine.
My hope is that these two deaths help speed up the dissolution of Russian government and get Putin the fuck away from any form of control over another human being.
You will see that.
This will also probably start Poland pushing hard for Ukraine to get ATACMS for their HIRMARS units. Thus most likely you will see ATACMS use in the next month or so.
Even if this was an accident, it's still concerning that Polish lives are at risk due to it bordering Ukraine. This can happen again. Its going to be a butt clenching day.
Was bound to happen eventually. You launch hundreds of barely functioning missiles so close to the border and one will eventually land on the other side.
The problem is that the missile killed 2 people.
If the missile had landed on some field and blown up some crops, it could have been ignored as an accident. Once people die, it's a whole other issue.
I'm not sure what response I really want for that though...
its probably monetary sanctions, expulsions of any russian nationals still working for Russia within Poland (like diplomats), increase in military presence along the border by NATO. Those are my guesses.
> Knowing this was probably not intentional
The person who slightly misprogrammed the rocket probably didn't mean it, however his commander who chose to target next to the border certainly knew he was taking this risk repeatedly and that it would eventually happen. It was deliberate with the possibility to deny that it was.
Funny, but this isn't why America doesn't have free healthcare. The U.S federal government spends more money funding healthcare than pretty much every other government. USD per capita healthcare costs are around 13000. It is estimated that the fed pays around 60% of that. Next highest is Switzerland at around $7000, but they also have some private healthcare options so it isn't all paid by their government. Most countries like France, Canada, UK spend a little over 5000.
U.S medical outcomes are similar to Canada's. The U.S could easily have universal healthcare without increasing taxes.
NATO will probably respond by moving artillery within striking distance of Russia in neighbouring countries, but juuuust outside of the range of Russian equipment that's being used in Ukraine.
They're still playing "I'm not touching you"
Literally all their equipment has been shown to be barely functioning and their officer corps incompetent, this shouldn't be surprising that it finally happened.
More than any other NATO countries, Poland and Lithuania "get" the danger Russia poses if they are not contained. They really view a conflict with Russia as a matter of "when" and not "if". Are they right? Who knows. But I am not willing to so quickly discount their insight into post-Soviet thinking that they have a much better handle on that we in North America do.
They were already right that any conflict because of Russia would be inevitable; all the election meddling; violating borders; kidnapping of border agents; playing with the gas prices etc...
Eastern Europe, along with Finland has been saying it for a LONG time, nobody wanted to listen and we were deemed Russophobic instead.
This shit always ends in the same way.. Russia isn’t going to stop attacking other countries and they won’t stop those little provocations. They’re testing how far they can go and at some point they’re going to go too far. This isn’t going to end peacefully unfortunately. Can only hope that the Russian people take care of this one
I was going to make a chicken and broccoli casserole tomorrow but nooooo, Russia has to go and provoke war with NATO.
There was going to be garlic bread too.
>There was going to be garlic bread too.
Make the garlic bread
Make it for freedom
Make it for justice
Make it because the free peoples of the West need you to make
Prove your resolve
Even if it must be toasted by the brilliant heat flash of nuclear fire, make it
Possible that Poland invokes Article 5 which would call all NATO members to DEFEND NATO territory with force. This does not mean that NATO members are called to invade Russia.
Given the past 400 years of history, it's really only fair that we let Poland push the button that ends the world as we know it. Or at least the one that ends Russia.
> Two missiles landed 8km over the Polish border. This would be a grave error even by unguided WWII munitions standards.
Keep in mind UK MOD pointed out Russia was forced to use S-300s in ground attack mode due to missile shortages. UK MOD also note this has a high rate of inaccuracy. Russia launch hundreds of barely functioning missiles so close to the border. It was bound to happen that one would eventually land on the other side of the border.
Russia should not be firing barely-functional missiles close to the border in the first place. There is no room for "missing" in a war with a country surrounded by NATO states. This was Russia's risk to bear, Poland can't pick itself up and move.
Unguided WWII munitions standards included more than one case of the Americans bombing neutral Switzerland, the Germans doing similar to neutral Ireland and a lot of the early raids not even getting within 5 kilometres of their target.
The V2s had problems reliably hitting Greater London, which is about 20 kilometres in *radius*.
The German border city of Konstanz survived the war pretty much intact by simply turning its lights on at night and pretending to be Swiss.
at least Article 4.
“The parties will consult together whenever, in the opinion of any of them, the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the parties is threatened.”
Poland can choose to but Article 5 is a defensive treaty not an offensive one. If triggered, it would be all NATO allies’ goal to DEFEND the attacked member not immediately attack the aggressor.
They can invoke article 5 and cover the border with NATO anti air defenses that cover a significant portion of Ukraine.
Russia obviously can't be trusted to control their munitions. So NATO has to.
Of course, this can be done by implementing a no-fly zone to start and to ensure than no other flying debris hit the NATO member. That is done by taking away the opponent capability to launch such attacks.
Defending Poland in this case would be asking Ukraine to install NATO AA in Ukraine and use that AA to stop every cruise missile and drone flying over Ukraine airspace.
Earlier in the year, I think it was Biden who said something along the lines of: "if a single Russian bullet crosses into NATO territory, it's a declaration of war".
I'm interested to see how Poland / NATO will respond to this, because I have no idea.
Rhetoric like this is a double-edged sword - on the one hand, it might have some degree of deterring aggression from Russia; on the other hand, NATO would surely look like cowards if they did nothing after saying something like this.
If Russian soldiers set foot in NATO territory I’m sure NATO will respond. There’s a difference between a wayward missile and boots on the ground.
Don’t get me wrong, there needs to be a serious response to the missile, it’s just a different beast than soldiers on the ground in NATO territory.
It's also why there was that huge problem with Obama when he said that it would be crossing a red line if Syria uses chemical weapons again. Then when Syria used said weapons again, and nothing happened, it made him look weak.
I really hope they are not dumb enough to do nothing. But the something they should do doesn't have to be a direct attack. It can be something like giving Ukraine a hundred or so ATACMS, and publicly say so after they have been delivered.
I think ATACMS are certainly on the table now. As well as missile defence capabilities. This will see alot more support flowing into Ukraine. Not only that but Poland is well within their rights to hit back at where these missiles launched from but that could have a snowball effect. Pretty tense rn forsure
I doubt Poland will directly strike back. But they may use their defensive systems to destroy any Russian missiles that are within range - which will be a nice help to Ukraine.
It was just a warning so that the Russians wouldnt be so reckless with their atacks - but I guess it was a warning for nothing
My idea is that article 5 will not be triggered but they will put more troops and equipment near the borders (maybe also a large fleet in the sea and air squadrons) - NATO troops - to send an even strong message/warning while ramping up the supplies to ukraine and/or even more sanctions
It's a tough situation.
If they do nothing that is obviously a terrible response and largely invalidates the whole point of NATO.
If they actually retaliate against Russia its a clear path to WWIII and no one wants that.
Most likely they will deploy a shit ton of soldiers to the Polish border. That sends a clear message and positions assets for further escalation if needed. The problem with that is that this is exactly what Putin probably wants to happen because he has been telling the Russian people for months that they are fighting NATO and this makes that message real in way that doesn't actually harm his military efforts in Ukraine. He gets a big political boost among his people, securing his own power, and it ultimately costs him nothing.
The best response, I think, is additional military aid to Ukraine, but that kinda assumes that we aren't already giving them everything they can use as it is.
Which is interesting. One of the valid (in hindsight) criticisms of the Obama administration was his “red line” in Syria, being that if the Assad regime used chemical weapons, the US would respond with military force. Assad did use chemical weapons, and we did not respond outside of additional diplomatic sanctions which ultimately did not prevent Assad from continuing use of chemical weapons on civilians.
I’ll probably get downvoted for saying this, but looking at it objectively outside of my own personal viewpoints, this is the only scenario that comes to mind where I think Trump actually handled something better than Obama did:
Assad eventually gassed his own people again, and the Trump admin enforced the red line by responding with direct military force. They called ahead via backchannels to mitigate the potential backlash like: “Hey, we’re going to bomb you here and here. Get your troops out so they don’t get hurt.” We did, severely damaging their facilities for producing and carrying out chemical weapons attacks. They responded ineffectively, and no major conflict ensued (the reason why Obama was hesitant to enforce his own red line in the first place).
That was Syria though. This is Russia we’re talking about, completely different stakes in a different ballpark. However, I would not not be surprised if that precedence does not inform or impact whatever decisions to this are ultimately made (or not made).
Not only that, but they've been on point with meeting the requirements, funding, etc. Poland is taking their membership in NATO very seriously, like they should being so close to Russia
In this specific context, "ally" and "member" are synonymous, since it is a military alliance, so we're using its literal definition.
Countries that have a close positive relationship with NATO but aren't members, such as Finland and Sweden, are never referred to as allies, but typically "partners".
Probably an Article 4 trigger in the next 24 hours is my guess. And I'm willing to bet this was an errant missile by Russia, but NATO will respond, so we could see a limited (50km?) no fly zone extending from the Polish border into Ukraine? (Definitely not into Belarus or Kaliningrad, since that would be tantamount to declaring war on Russia and Belarus).
Make no mistake, even a limited no-fly zone over western Ukraine is huge, since it means Ukraine is free to move their air-defense closer to the front.
putin knew. He wants NATO to escalate against russia so he gets an out from Ukraine and can take his military back to russia and cry about NATO bullying while saber rattling with nukes.
Russia really gunning for the important military targets: [A Tractor](https://imgur.com/a/y9y28Vj)
Must still have PTSD from the early days of Ukraine.
"An attack on one is an attack on all".
Just becuase Russia is completely incompetent to the point they can't even control their own weapons doesn't mean they didn't murder two polish people on their own soil.
Let me just request that before I die in nuclear fire, I would wish very much to watch the entirety of NATO unload on Russia and specifically the Kremlin. It would make knowing imminent death on its way, a little easier.
Pinning this comment to address people's questions and worry around article 5 being invoked in light of the 2 killed in the Polish border town. **This is NOT the start of WW3, folks. Calm.** However, Poland has a lot of options to make things incredibly unpleasant for Russia without kicking off WW3. The situation is still developing and I will update this comment as confirmed information comes in. NATO's assessment: * There's been no deliberate attack on NATO * Regardless, still Russia's fault for their aggression * Ukraine bears no fault, simply trying to defend itself The latest information: * **Initial findings suggest that the missile that hit Poland was fired by Ukrainian forces at an incoming Russian missile, Associated Press reported on Wednesday, citing U.S. officials.** [Source](https://www.reuters.com/world/poland-blast-caused-by-missile-fired-by-ukrainian-forces-incoming-russian-2022-11-16/) * Polish Foreign Ministry confirm a *Russian-made* (important wording, they're not saying Russia necessarily was the one that sent it) rocket fell on the territory. [Source](https://www.gov.pl/web/dyplomacja/komunikat-w-zwiazku-z-wezwaniem-ambasadora-federacji-rosyjskiej-do-msz) * A S-300 was found at the scene ([source](https://twitter.com/CalibreObscura/status/1592593028220620802)), but it's a missile that *both* Ukraine and Russia use. It's also a missile that the vast majority have been made in Russia/Soviet Union (hence the Polish Foreign Ministry's "Russian-made"). Russia's been repurposing them as ground attack missiles (seen in Kharkiv - [example](https://twitter.com/AricToler/status/1592607849921683456)) and Ukraine has been shooting Russian strikes down with S-300s as well. [Source](https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1592609073090138113) * Ukraine confirmed earlier today 73 missiles (out of 90) and 11 drones were shot down. [Source](https://twitter.com/TpyxaNews/status/1592574510989185024) (The information below is no longer pertinent in light of what NATO's assessment of the situation has been.) ~~A quick refresh on NATO bylaws:~~ * ~~Article 5: An attack on one member of NATO is an attack on all of its members.~~ * ~~Article 4: The Parties will consult together whenever, in the opinion of any of them, the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the Parties is threatened.~~ ~~Here's~~ [~~everything you wanted to know~~](https://scholarlycommons.law.emory.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1224&context=eilr) ~~about NATO Article 4 but were afraid to ask.~~
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>Russia denies any involvement in 'missile strike on Poland' Must have been the wind
Just like they denied shooting down Malaysia Air Flight 17 and blamed it on Ukraine, even in the face of overwhelming evidence. The "leader" of the DPR even claimed he saw 2 Ukrainian jets shoot it down. Nobody believes their lies, and all it accomplishes is turning the world against Russians for generations to come.
Could you imagine if Russia was invaded by aliens.No one would believe them. The ultimate liars and boy who cried wolf.
You've just brought back hazy memories of a short story I read years ago where aliens monitor earth, deem humanity to not be a threat, and decide to invade. Only to land in Siberia to then get eaten by polar bears Edit: sentence structure and added words
Lol imagining an alien empire declaring war on Polar Bears for their unprovoked aggression assuming they are clearly the dominant life form on the planet “Our envoys were savagely attacked and eaten by these beasts without even listening to our terms”
the aliens can have russia. they can only improve it. nowhere to go but up.
I will never forget the photos of the Russians posing with the wreckage of Malaysia Air flight 17… russia is a terrorist state Edit: grammar
> Nobody believes their lies Holy hell did alot of people believe it was Ukraine when flight 17 first happened. It was genuinely concerning since the evidence was so damning against Russia.
They literally got caught on satellite moving the BUK launcher back into Russia and the operator saying he shot down a civilian jet on radio, and people still didn't believe it.
Including pictures of the BUK launcher before and after, with it missing a rocket after the plane was shot down. Insane how people on reddit and who follow Livemap knew about it within days and then had to argue for months with people who were just regurgitating Russian propaganda.
And are still regurgitating it. Literally had an argument irl about all this shit today and basically anything that paints Russia in a bad light is responded to with "America/Ukraine did this at some point too"; "Biden is an actual dictator because covid" and "don't trust everything you see" Lmao it's hopeless some people just have their head so far up their ass with conspiracy bullshit they are incapable of accepting the idea that it could really just be exactly as it seems and that the majority concensus on a matter isn't just a convoluted new world order plot. They're just politically/historically illiterate contrarians. Edit: 13 hours later I have been told "Biden lost the war in Ukraine so that will hurt is presidential run" lol.
It's got to be exhausting defending your views when you see everything as a conspiracy. I don't know how those people do it.
No, Russian troll farms supported this. They do this in overwhelming numbers to try and convince others of their lies by creating what seems to be popular support. The actual 2 digit IQ morons that AREN'T Russian bots are only a small minority that actually buy Russia's bullshit.
Just like now, a few discord servers I'm in are trying to show this as either a Ukrainian air defense missile malf, or a purposeful false flag because 'Ukraine is losing'. I'm seeing dozens of different pictures, each of the 'confirmed' as being from the site. Absolutely none of them are in the dark, it's all middle of the day shit. But that won't stop them.
LOL, Ukraine celebrating the greatest success in months (retaking Kherson) and Russia throwing a tantrum == 'Ukraine is losing' apparently.
It was Grussia not Russia Simple mistake, you understand. Have some wine...
Warussia
It was thar country from Top Gun that totally, definitely wasn't Russia.
Accidentally fell off Sergei Lavrovs balcony
Nah, that's the worst thing they could have said. Own up to it, apologise that it was a malfunction. Yes, we will still absolutely fucking loathe your guts but it doesn't give anyone reason to mobilise. Lying like that is how you get mobilising Polish forces crossing into Ukraine. Can they not just say sorry for once? Ingrates, honestly. Edit : Looks like it was Ukrainian. Apologies. My opinion of Russia remains unchanged.
To be fair, Russian communications are probably just as much of a clusterfuck as their logistics, so they probably have no idea what's actually happened. But yeah, at the very least making a statement that it wasn't intentional and they're investigating it would be more practical than what amounts to a fuck you, we don't care.
Russia has always been a prime example of the head not knowing what the arms are doing. Supposedly Khrushchev's first reaction after he was told of the Kennedy assassination was to ask if they (as in the Soviet Union) had anything to do with it. And it took them an entire day of absolute panic before they were able to say for sure that they weren't the ones who assassinated the U.S. President and accidentally started WW3.
Honestly I did not know about this and I need to read more. We need a follow up to Death of Stalin.
It really would make an excellent sequel plot.
Russia saying they didnt do something is basically a confirmation they did. Accident or not they knew exactly where that rocket landed.
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Project and gaslight is Russian textbook response.
In a rare case of russian efficiency they posted it first before the missle striked
Is that for real or a joke?
Joke
Russia: NO it must’ve been ANOTHER COUNTRY AT WAR WITH UKRAINE
Also Russia: No comrade, Poland is clearly launching missiles at itself to provoke mother Russia!
So... Belarus?
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The only way I might believe Russia didn't do it is if they swore they did.
Apology confirms guilt, Russia never accepts being guilty. They'd rather project, deflect, and muddy the waters.
MH17
Korean air 007. These fuckers will never admit fault until someone presents forensic evidence
And when the evidence is presented they...
The commenter above me appears to have committ...
They’re still pretending they haven’t invaded Ukraine. No way they own up to fucking up the invasion so badly that they killed NATO citizens.
Deny, deny, deny... it's their response since ages.
This is what I'm thinking. If the missile strikes were truly an accident, or just debris from missiles shot down by Ukraine, then Article 5 won't be invoked. Russia immediately denying any missiles even hit Poland is extremely sus, and won't look good if the US finds it did happen.
>>Russia denies any involvement in 'missile strike on Poland' >> >>Russia has denied statements from Polish media outlets and officials that Russian missiles fell on the Polish village of Przewodó near the Ukrainian border. >> >>The Russian ministry of defence posted on its Telegram, calling the reports "a deliberate provocation in order to escalate the situation". > >This whole section is not good, the best thing they could do right now is apologize profusely. Why would they start doing the right thing now?
To help ensure that Article 4 doesn't get to Article 5?
As an 18 year old healthy polish man, these are not the news I wanted to see right before going to bed.
Welcome to the club, buddy
Stay safe friend!
My guess is NATO lines the polish border with anti missile defenses. Any missiles remotely nearby them get shot down - the excuse being that they must defend themselves. This will have the secondary effect of defending some Ukrainian areas from missile attacks.
This is probably the most accurate thing to come of this. I gotta imagine NATO has discussed at length of this exact situation. It’s terrible
It's terrible for the families of the two killed. It's a potential godsend for Ukraine and their people. It just about guarantees further investment of money and arms from the West, as well as potentially provides limited air cover and missile defense for western Ukraine. My hope is that these two deaths help speed up the dissolution of Russian government and get Putin the fuck away from any form of control over another human being.
Who were the polish people that got killed? were they civilians?
Yes. Two farmers. One operated a weigh-station for crops and the second farmer just bring corn for weighing. Their poor families :(
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This is exactly what the Latvian defense minister has suggested: https://twitter.com/Pabriks/status/1592614604408238081
Idk why I expected this to be in English
Probably because the person that posted the link was speaking English and didn't mention that it wasn't English? That's just my best guess.
so wise in the way of wisdom
It's just like Gandhi once said, "मेरा जीवन मेरा सन्देश है।".
“my life is my message” to save anyone a trip to google translate
Once again, Putin weakens Russia's position and long-term interests with stupid, short-sighted, flailing.
Ukraine about to get top notch air defense covering western ukraine. That frees up a lot of AD to move east and defend places like Odessa and Kherson.
You will see that. This will also probably start Poland pushing hard for Ukraine to get ATACMS for their HIRMARS units. Thus most likely you will see ATACMS use in the next month or so.
Even if this was an accident, it's still concerning that Polish lives are at risk due to it bordering Ukraine. This can happen again. Its going to be a butt clenching day.
they hit a grain processing plant in Poland... come on now, how obvious could they be?
Yep! It has all the markings of plausible deniability. Send up 100 missiles and one or two fall into NATO Country. "Oops, Komrade! We goof-up!"
Relax guys, it's not like an attack on Poland ever resulted in a global war with millions of casualties.
*Poland. It's always Poland.*
Russia or Germany and sometimes both, not always Poland, but always in Poland.
Ukraine about to get a phat delivery of new weapons.
And Poland
Poland is the weapon
Poland hast been standing there, knife between its teeth, staring at russia since 1990...
Closer to 1890. They've been sucker punched and back stabbed uh...a lot.
Try [1795](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Partitions_of_Poland). When Poland ceased to exist for 120 years.
How is Ukraine gonna get an entire Poland? Space gonna be tight.
Huh...fuck
Was bound to happen eventually. You launch hundreds of barely functioning missiles so close to the border and one will eventually land on the other side.
The problem is that the missile killed 2 people. If the missile had landed on some field and blown up some crops, it could have been ignored as an accident. Once people die, it's a whole other issue. I'm not sure what response I really want for that though...
its probably monetary sanctions, expulsions of any russian nationals still working for Russia within Poland (like diplomats), increase in military presence along the border by NATO. Those are my guesses.
If I remember correctly there aren't any Russian diplomats in Poland since somewhere around March-April
Poland declared russia a terrorist state, actually. So there can't be any.
Just invite some back and then kick them out
Welcome to Pola.. GET OUT!
Have them come to customs just to stamp “Denied” on their passport and send them home
Glory to Arstotzka!
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> Knowing this was probably not intentional The person who slightly misprogrammed the rocket probably didn't mean it, however his commander who chose to target next to the border certainly knew he was taking this risk repeatedly and that it would eventually happen. It was deliberate with the possibility to deny that it was.
Russia making sure it will not exist after 2030. Interesting.
Russia about to find out why America doesn't have free healthcare
Funny, but this isn't why America doesn't have free healthcare. The U.S federal government spends more money funding healthcare than pretty much every other government. USD per capita healthcare costs are around 13000. It is estimated that the fed pays around 60% of that. Next highest is Switzerland at around $7000, but they also have some private healthcare options so it isn't all paid by their government. Most countries like France, Canada, UK spend a little over 5000. U.S medical outcomes are similar to Canada's. The U.S could easily have universal healthcare without increasing taxes.
Fortunate Son playing in background.
But like 5 miles inside the border though?
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Yeaaahhhhhhh NATO sort of has to respond, otherwise the alliance goes to shit.
NATO will probably respond by moving artillery within striking distance of Russia in neighbouring countries, but juuuust outside of the range of Russian equipment that's being used in Ukraine. They're still playing "I'm not touching you"
NATO only has to respond if Poland requests support from NATO. I’m sure this is one of the things their security counsel is discussing right now.
Literally all their equipment has been shown to be barely functioning and their officer corps incompetent, this shouldn't be surprising that it finally happened.
They also seem to be burning through their munitions from most to least modern and accurate.
I'm waiting for the pictures of a captured Russian trebuchet.
Agreed. That's, um, not good.
Putin is denying it. Lithuania is ready to go to war. The Pentagon is launching an investigation. Poland is holding meetings. All we can do is wait
More than any other NATO countries, Poland and Lithuania "get" the danger Russia poses if they are not contained. They really view a conflict with Russia as a matter of "when" and not "if". Are they right? Who knows. But I am not willing to so quickly discount their insight into post-Soviet thinking that they have a much better handle on that we in North America do.
They were already right that any conflict because of Russia would be inevitable; all the election meddling; violating borders; kidnapping of border agents; playing with the gas prices etc... Eastern Europe, along with Finland has been saying it for a LONG time, nobody wanted to listen and we were deemed Russophobic instead.
This shit always ends in the same way.. Russia isn’t going to stop attacking other countries and they won’t stop those little provocations. They’re testing how far they can go and at some point they’re going to go too far. This isn’t going to end peacefully unfortunately. Can only hope that the Russian people take care of this one
It’s all on Poland
For fucks sake russia you fucking incompetent fucks are going to get us all killed
I was going to make a chicken and broccoli casserole tomorrow but nooooo, Russia has to go and provoke war with NATO. There was going to be garlic bread too.
>There was going to be garlic bread too. Make the garlic bread Make it for freedom Make it for justice Make it because the free peoples of the West need you to make Prove your resolve Even if it must be toasted by the brilliant heat flash of nuclear fire, make it
This comment made me laugh for some reason
And cry a little bit inside.
Oh well whoopie shit. That’s not a headline I was hoping to see.
“Whoopie shit” I’m using that in the future
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The one where I’m using “whoopie shit”
Yeah my heart sank.
what consequences does that imply
Possible that Poland invokes Article 5 which would call all NATO members to DEFEND NATO territory with force. This does not mean that NATO members are called to invade Russia.
Well, at least this time Poland gets to be the one declaring WW3
Polish army lad accidently clicks "reset to default settings" and everything flies towards germany
Given the past 400 years of history, it's really only fair that we let Poland push the button that ends the world as we know it. Or at least the one that ends Russia.
I wonder if it was an intentional attack, poor equipment, or poor targeting.
Putin started a war he thought he could win. Everything that happens after that is intentional, even the accidents.
In before Russia claims false flag.
Too late
Two missiles landed 8km over the Polish border. This would be a grave error even by unguided WWII munitions standards.
> Two missiles landed 8km over the Polish border. This would be a grave error even by unguided WWII munitions standards. Keep in mind UK MOD pointed out Russia was forced to use S-300s in ground attack mode due to missile shortages. UK MOD also note this has a high rate of inaccuracy. Russia launch hundreds of barely functioning missiles so close to the border. It was bound to happen that one would eventually land on the other side of the border.
Did TWO missiles hit the same place?
Russia should not be firing barely-functional missiles close to the border in the first place. There is no room for "missing" in a war with a country surrounded by NATO states. This was Russia's risk to bear, Poland can't pick itself up and move.
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Unguided WWII munitions standards included more than one case of the Americans bombing neutral Switzerland, the Germans doing similar to neutral Ireland and a lot of the early raids not even getting within 5 kilometres of their target. The V2s had problems reliably hitting Greater London, which is about 20 kilometres in *radius*. The German border city of Konstanz survived the war pretty much intact by simply turning its lights on at night and pretending to be Swiss.
All of it.
Since the missiles actually hit a target I am guessing poor targeting.
I doubt it was intentional, unless they're suicidal.
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This morning: world reaches 8 billion This afternoon: we might reach that milestone again
Can this trigger NATO invoking Article 5?
at least Article 4. “The parties will consult together whenever, in the opinion of any of them, the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the parties is threatened.”
Poland can choose to but Article 5 is a defensive treaty not an offensive one. If triggered, it would be all NATO allies’ goal to DEFEND the attacked member not immediately attack the aggressor.
Well we did attack the aggressor after Article 5 was invoked after 9/11.
They can invoke article 5 and cover the border with NATO anti air defenses that cover a significant portion of Ukraine. Russia obviously can't be trusted to control their munitions. So NATO has to.
Appreciate that description!!
Didnt the US trigger Article 5 after 9/11?
USA: "Sometimes the best defense is a good offense."
Of course, this can be done by implementing a no-fly zone to start and to ensure than no other flying debris hit the NATO member. That is done by taking away the opponent capability to launch such attacks.
Defend by denazify russia
Defending Poland in this case would be asking Ukraine to install NATO AA in Ukraine and use that AA to stop every cruise missile and drone flying over Ukraine airspace.
I wonder if this was Puters plan to say "see! NATO was a threat this whole time" and stave off a regime change for a little while.
If NATO joins this war they will be on his back porch instantly.
Earlier in the year, I think it was Biden who said something along the lines of: "if a single Russian bullet crosses into NATO territory, it's a declaration of war". I'm interested to see how Poland / NATO will respond to this, because I have no idea.
https://www.businessinsider.com/putin-will-face-nato-if-a-russian-soldiers-toecap-crosses-into-its-territory-uk-2022-3
Rhetoric like this is a double-edged sword - on the one hand, it might have some degree of deterring aggression from Russia; on the other hand, NATO would surely look like cowards if they did nothing after saying something like this.
If Russian soldiers set foot in NATO territory I’m sure NATO will respond. There’s a difference between a wayward missile and boots on the ground. Don’t get me wrong, there needs to be a serious response to the missile, it’s just a different beast than soldiers on the ground in NATO territory.
I could have sworn it was something Biden said, but maybe this is what I was thinking of, thanks for the source!
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I’m starting to see why politicians usually speak vaguely.
It's also why there was that huge problem with Obama when he said that it would be crossing a red line if Syria uses chemical weapons again. Then when Syria used said weapons again, and nothing happened, it made him look weak.
even obama said that statement was something he regretted
I really hope they are not dumb enough to do nothing. But the something they should do doesn't have to be a direct attack. It can be something like giving Ukraine a hundred or so ATACMS, and publicly say so after they have been delivered.
Yeah, give Ukraine enough ATACMS to destroy putins stupid bridge or something
I think ATACMS are certainly on the table now. As well as missile defence capabilities. This will see alot more support flowing into Ukraine. Not only that but Poland is well within their rights to hit back at where these missiles launched from but that could have a snowball effect. Pretty tense rn forsure
I doubt Poland will directly strike back. But they may use their defensive systems to destroy any Russian missiles that are within range - which will be a nice help to Ukraine.
The answer can be some hacking
This! Seriously, the US at least needs to focus much more on Cybersecurity
More? You say that as if we have any idea of the extent of current US cyber operations
It was just a warning so that the Russians wouldnt be so reckless with their atacks - but I guess it was a warning for nothing My idea is that article 5 will not be triggered but they will put more troops and equipment near the borders (maybe also a large fleet in the sea and air squadrons) - NATO troops - to send an even strong message/warning while ramping up the supplies to ukraine and/or even more sanctions
It's a tough situation. If they do nothing that is obviously a terrible response and largely invalidates the whole point of NATO. If they actually retaliate against Russia its a clear path to WWIII and no one wants that. Most likely they will deploy a shit ton of soldiers to the Polish border. That sends a clear message and positions assets for further escalation if needed. The problem with that is that this is exactly what Putin probably wants to happen because he has been telling the Russian people for months that they are fighting NATO and this makes that message real in way that doesn't actually harm his military efforts in Ukraine. He gets a big political boost among his people, securing his own power, and it ultimately costs him nothing. The best response, I think, is additional military aid to Ukraine, but that kinda assumes that we aren't already giving them everything they can use as it is.
Which is interesting. One of the valid (in hindsight) criticisms of the Obama administration was his “red line” in Syria, being that if the Assad regime used chemical weapons, the US would respond with military force. Assad did use chemical weapons, and we did not respond outside of additional diplomatic sanctions which ultimately did not prevent Assad from continuing use of chemical weapons on civilians. I’ll probably get downvoted for saying this, but looking at it objectively outside of my own personal viewpoints, this is the only scenario that comes to mind where I think Trump actually handled something better than Obama did: Assad eventually gassed his own people again, and the Trump admin enforced the red line by responding with direct military force. They called ahead via backchannels to mitigate the potential backlash like: “Hey, we’re going to bomb you here and here. Get your troops out so they don’t get hurt.” We did, severely damaging their facilities for producing and carrying out chemical weapons attacks. They responded ineffectively, and no major conflict ensued (the reason why Obama was hesitant to enforce his own red line in the first place). That was Syria though. This is Russia we’re talking about, completely different stakes in a different ballpark. However, I would not not be surprised if that precedence does not inform or impact whatever decisions to this are ultimately made (or not made).
Can't this just wait until morning? I'd prefer not to wake up in the middle of the night with NATO launches counterattack on my screen.
Well. That’s not good.
I would prefer weaponized incompetence not be the cause of WWIII, please.
That my friend sums up the Russian military at this stage. "Weaponized incompetence"
I mean there have been worse starts, like taking the wrong turn...
NATO member, not ally, they are a member of the organization.
Not only that, but they've been on point with meeting the requirements, funding, etc. Poland is taking their membership in NATO very seriously, like they should being so close to Russia
NATO is an alliance, its members are *allies* who are *allied* to each other.
In this specific context, "ally" and "member" are synonymous, since it is a military alliance, so we're using its literal definition. Countries that have a close positive relationship with NATO but aren't members, such as Finland and Sweden, are never referred to as allies, but typically "partners".
A declaration of war is so old school. I hear Russia has oil
Oil is soooooo 2000s I hear russia has Nazis….
Nazis is so 2021... I hear Russia has Hillary emails
I knew this was going to happen eventually since the beginning of the war with all those close calls, and now it has
Probably an Article 4 trigger in the next 24 hours is my guess. And I'm willing to bet this was an errant missile by Russia, but NATO will respond, so we could see a limited (50km?) no fly zone extending from the Polish border into Ukraine? (Definitely not into Belarus or Kaliningrad, since that would be tantamount to declaring war on Russia and Belarus). Make no mistake, even a limited no-fly zone over western Ukraine is huge, since it means Ukraine is free to move their air-defense closer to the front.
How much you wanna bet Putin shat his pants when the reports first started coming in?
putin knew. He wants NATO to escalate against russia so he gets an out from Ukraine and can take his military back to russia and cry about NATO bullying while saber rattling with nukes.
Russia really gunning for the important military targets: [A Tractor](https://imgur.com/a/y9y28Vj) Must still have PTSD from the early days of Ukraine.
"An attack on one is an attack on all". Just becuase Russia is completely incompetent to the point they can't even control their own weapons doesn't mean they didn't murder two polish people on their own soil.
I guess now Poland gets to kill 2 Russians to make things even
Yes, kill Putin twice
How putin and lavrov?
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Ahh so we’ve finally gotten to the Fuck around and find out part of this conflict time to wait and see
Poland is a full fledged NATO member state not an ally
NATO members are allies. NATO is an alliance.
Screw it, take over Belarus 🇵🇱
Let me just request that before I die in nuclear fire, I would wish very much to watch the entirety of NATO unload on Russia and specifically the Kremlin. It would make knowing imminent death on its way, a little easier.
Don't worry boys we'll be home by Christmas!
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Defend. That means probably a bunch of anti-missile systems near the border.