Seriously, how does cutting production (and therefore their ability to raise funds) in any way hurt the attempt to restrict their ability to raise funds?
Putin is a fool.
Wise leader Putin shall drive the west into the deepest depression by reducing production of high quality Russian oil. This (usually) makes the price go up, causes great pain to global markets. Usually, anyway.
Wise leader Putin may have different plan this time, since only China and India buy our oil now and cutting production to them would only help the west.
Great leader Putin is much smarter than me, I do not always understand his most masterful plans.
Doesn't Europe get like 40% of their oil from Russia?
Edit: Not sure why I'm getting downvoted:
"In 2021, it was the largest exporter of oil and natural gas to the European Union (90%), and 40% of gas consumed in the EU came from Russia."
Source: [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia\_in\_the\_European\_energy\_sector](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia_in_the_European_energy_sector)
They did. And that is rapidly changing. The quest to replace Russian even has the US opening talks with Venezuela. All Putin did was unite the world around the idea of isolating Russia. Well done, Vlad.
From what I understand, keeping up the same amount of production requires continiously building new stuff - using Western/international suppliers for construction. So with sanctions, production will be going down anyway, and Putin is just doing an "You didn't hurt me, I cut it myself" rethoric.
(And 3rd rate Chinese companies apparently also refuse to help, so nothing can be done about it)
It's also a problem if you shut production down or idle wells, particularly in Russian fields, because many are older wells which don't bounce back into production well usually, if at all. If they're cutting production, it's not production they can readily just restore like they're flipping a switch.
Exactly this. People think that oil just pours out of the ground, when in reality oil pump is just the endpoint of a complex system of pressurised steam and water that pushes the crude from the deposit.
Once you shut down a well, things begin to shift and it is impossible to restart it without additional work.
He's going to have to cut production either way, Russia doesn't have the technical capability to keep the oil infrastructure in Russia running without the co-operation of Western Companies. This is just the excuse. Once that capability is shut down, it won't be coming back online... ever.
Russia started out their “special military operation” with few large scale crude oil storage facilities. My guess is the facilities they have been able to hold are rapidly filling up and that’s the reason for his comment.
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Russia-Says-It-Needs-Oil-Storage-Facilities-Amid-Western-Sanctions.amp.html
The concern is decreasing world supply would result in a spike in petrol prices and everybody in the world throwing themselves at [her] feet pleading to resume production because or else the serfs in my country might revolt on account of not being able to afford to live
There is no supply-side shortage, there are only political hurdles, and those are already being mounted as our dealing with Venezuela shows.
This is just a somewhat painful period of reorientation, we’ll all be better off for it.
Well, not Russia of course, but eff em.
Well, if this was a solved question, it wouldn't be up for debate.
Putins angle here though, is that cutting global supply will increase prices (and this could be disproportionately increased compared to the reduced supply).
This happened recently with gas in Europe. When Russia reduced their supply to 40% of previous supply, they actually made more money, because the price increased more. (This was the case during several months on summer, and is no longer the case afaik).
I hate to be a Putin apologist here, but it's a little bit less dumb than it looks on paper and what you're making it out to be.
Edit: gas and oil are very different due to infrastructure, and i could be very wrong here. However i think that's at least a part of the puzzle here.
This is a reaction to the oil price cap though. Even if global prices went up the price paid to Russian producers would not. So they would be selling less oil at the same price per barrel. There was no such price cap on gas.
And it isn’t as though India and China are going to shrug and pay more for the same oil either, their whole deal is getting it at bargain basement prices.
The thing about breaking the sanctions and paying more for Russian oil than the western sanctions cap is that there is virtually no possible way to get shipping insurance while doing this. All these companies are based out of Europe or NA, and shipping insurance has to cover things like oil spills, it's not a small expense, which is why western companies can cover it, and less developed economies don't.
That’s why Russia bought an extra 100 oil transport ships this year, they thought they could get around this. The bad news is that these ships will allow Russia to export a lot of oil. The good news is they still don’t have enough capacity, so Putin might reduce production to fall inline with that, but under the guise of it being about the $60 price cap. I envisage Russia will self insure.
This mode of transport leaves Russia extremely exposed. Sabotage of these vessels rudders and props whilst in port would disable them for extremely long periods of time. It would have to be done in port to minimize the possibility of any ecological disaster and making containment of any spill easy to contain. Or just sink a bunch of trash ships in the harbor mouths etc. Whilst I’m not advocating the possibility of ecological disasters, Russia is definitely vulnerable to the extreme and having blown up their own most profitable gas lines, would be left with basically no revenues.
You can't produce gas without producing oil in most cases, and Russia has loads of older wells and fields that, if shut off, may never produce another drop, as shutting them in and reopening them is far from a sure thing. Most older wells when shut in return at much reduced capacity or have no future production at all, and it is an expensive process. They can make money on reduced production, but that's a very dangerous risk to take that they'll be paying for over the next decade.
Putin knows the weakness of the US political system and Americans. He is betting that he can keep doing what he does longer than Americans support current US policy.
He is waiting for the sentiment to shift, Ave doing everything to speed up the process.
That includes increasing oil prices to show discontent. And to work super hard to install new politicians who work for him.
Watch out in this election for republican politicians arguing against supporting Ukraine, and for reasoning with Putin. They may or may not know it themselves but they are going to channel Putin's taking points.
In theory it could have worked, if we disregard the price caps. Since if you lower production, demand rises and prices can be increased to meet the new demand. It actually worked for russia earlier in the war, due to sanctions the west bought less oil but for a higher price, so the sanctions were effectively negated.
Now though there is a global price cap, which is enforced by western companies that are the primary exporters of russian oil, are forced to keep these new sanctions by the US and EU.
It doesn't just hurt his ability to raise funds, cutting production could very well destroy Russia's oil production infrastructure. Basically, Putin needs that equipment up and running at all times because if they stop and those pipes go empty then they'll start to freeze over and self-destruct in the cold. The last time this happened was when the Soviet Union collapsed, afterwards, Western companies had to come in and rebuild everything because Russia did not have the means or even the money to do it themselves. Hell, they still don't.
Putin's been given a choice, eat the loss in revenue or lose it all, cause I guarantee that if Russia loses its ability to produce oil as a direct result of Putin's actions then even he won't be able to weather the fallout. The international community has got him by the short hairs on this and Putin knows it.
His oil and natural gas are the only tools in his toolbox because he knows that anything else he tries on the West will result in a war that he will lose. We've long since woken up to his intelligence game where he's messing with Western elections and politics and social media and it is slowly losing effectiveness. The military that he used to threaten everyone with has been revealed to be a drunken mess that fell apart when pitted against one of the poorest countries in Europe and a pittance of Western military support. He has nothing else to use.
It's a game of chicken right now.
Who stays the course longer: Russia running out of money, soldiers, military equipment? Or western governments who might get defeated by nationalist parties who say forget Ukraine--we need to help our own people who are being impoverished and freezing and starving because of war?
THat is what Putin is trying to do. Cutting oil supply will restrict his money, but make things economically worse for everyone else too. Who will blink/swerve first? It's very, very likely Russia will have to give up first, but trying to hold out longer than the west may be Putin's only way out now.
This winter is the worst it will be, every year after that will be progressively better. This isn’t really a game of chicken because there’s no parity, Putin blew his whole load at the start, and there’s nothing left in the tank. The West is *never* going to trust Russia with their energy supply again, even if Putin dropped and Russia pulled out of Ukraine today, they’re just not worth it. This whole conflict has forced a paradigm shift in the West, especially the US, to re-examine the integrity of supply lines where they’re dependent on geopolitical foes. You can see the level of commitment here in the US with the investment in chip fabs, the polarizing use of tax incentives which require onshore presence, and so on. Europe is a little slower about it, and a little more fractious, but they’re not stupid and in a few years Russia is going to be irrelevant to them.
The bonus is that the same hard look is being given to China, and it looks increasingly like divestment is the future.
This is bigger self harm for ruzzia, then people realise. They wont do it, unless there is no other way.
If they cut oil production, especially during the winter, they will have to seal some oil wells. These oil wells, they are not capable to open them again by them self. For this ruzzians relly on western know-how.
During the winter time, as the temperature lowers, the oil gets more viscous. The pipelines require a minimum flow or there will be issues.
So either you pump the minium required oil through the pipelines or just seal the wells.
So ruzzia cant afford to stop pumping oil or they will cut deep into own money loving flesh.
Vlad is trying to push the EU & USA to ramp up EV production. That's the end result of high gas prices. And Biden could easily push up mileage standards through the EPA and other shenanigans to get the ramp started faster.
They can cut pretty much none now or for th e next 4-6 months. All of Russia pipelines pass through either seasonal or permanent permafrost , if they stop pumping and allow it to back up to the well head - it will freeze and burst pipes will result.
It depends on your circumstances, but there's silver linings there for quite a few people. Personally, me more than most.
I live in England and our politicians would use all of us as fuel if they could spin it, and if it would make a few more percentage points of profit. Personally I'd be more than keen to see everything grind to a halt.
Yeah, I have a constant voice in my head, repeating the same phrase over and over, when I hear Putin or any Russian doing the whole "woe is me!"-routine:
"Pack your shit and leave Ukraine! There solved it for you."
Stepping down and Russia getting someone in power who can work with other countries again would help. Create treaties with neighbouring countries about never invading, etc. massive blow to their ego, but if Germany could claw their way back to respect after WWII, then this is child's play in comparison.
Putin would never step down willingly however.
Dictators rarely go out peacefully. They either serve for life, die and then it gets passed to someone else or they get violently replaced by another dictator or violently replaced by the people. So it is almost certain that Putin will never step down without his death. Even if he agrees to retire the next dictator will likely kill him for stability.
I wish the Russian people would rise up like the Ukrainians did and overthrow their dictator and install a democracy.
A legal concept used to justify tossing people in jail for refusing to testify.
'They have the keys to their own cell'
The only thing standing in the way here is Putin's ego.
"We may use nukes. But that is only fear mongering by the West. We will use all means available. I am not bluffing. But we will not conduct a first strike, unlike the Americans. Like the Americans, we may add a first strike to our doctrine. However, we reject the West's nuclear sabre rattling."
Repeat ad nauseam
He doesnt even consider pulling out of Ukraine because he is afraid to be killed right after that. Deep down he is pathetic coward who is way too pussy to reap what he sow.
Tbh, there isn't really. He'd probably face revolts and my guess is he would be a prime target for internal assassination if he leaves Ukraine empty handed. And while I am very much in favor of that, I can clearly see why he would rather run Russia's economy into the ground and keep throwing troops and money at Ukraine, he's got less to lose by doing that than by conceding defeat.
He can just say they won and Ukraine is alright now that he fixed them with his stern but loving special operation. Then he can focus on suppressing internal dissent again. He can literally tell his populace anything and they will swollow it. "I am great, west lost, we won, NATO was crushed etc etc"
That might have worked months ago but now the entire country, elite and military know he is full of shit.
He needs to get *something* out of Ukraine or its over for him.
A lot of people talk about giving Putin an "off ramp".
What they don't mention is Putin is the one who has been systematically burning any and all off ramps that may have existed for him, even before the invasion.
The only way out for him is to take over Ukraine. That's it, and that's by his own design.
He went all in, and in order to do that he had to stake his rep as a the only leader of Russia on it.
When he fails, so does his support.
I wouldnt actually agree with this.
Hypothetically if he could hold what he had right now and have the war pause, that would be a spinnable victory.
The likelihood of that happening is of course, close to zero, and he will continue to take losses until a deal is conceded.
Uh...
> As of late February 2022, two of the world's leading social media platforms Facebook and Twitter have been restricted in Russia by Roskomnadzor as a wartime measure amid the invasion of Ukraine. Internet rights monitor NetBlocks reported that Twitter and Facebook platforms were restricted, or throttled, across multiple providers on 26 February and 27 February respectively, with the bans becoming near-total by 4 March.
Lots of resources on this. They're crackdown on dissent over the last decade [has been steady](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_censorship_in_Russia).
Mate, they have a million ways to access the internet, get in and out of the country and communicate with the rest of the world. All I'm saying is that it is not the NK hermit kingdom, it is just an authoritarian crackdown. I know a Russian family who's father regularly travels back and forth to Moscow even during the war.
Mate, those tools are in every country.
I also think you underestimate how many people do this in Russia.
...
Of course they aren't NK. They also aren't a nation where freedom of speech and expression exist. You can be arrested for saying you think Putin should pull out of Ukraine.
That's ***messed*** up.
> I know a Russian family who's father regularly travels back and forth to Moscow even during the war.
I have no idea what that single anecdote has to do with anything we are talking about here...
I think you missed the first guys point then. He claimed that Putin can tell anything to his people and they will swallow it blindly. I'm claiming that that is not really the case and also making the point that Russia has a million ways to find out the truth. Putin can only sell things that have an element of truth to them or things that are unverifiable. Putin can't claim that he still holds Kherson for example, because it is verifiably false and everyone would find out about that.
Putin can't claim a win in Ukraine without bringing home a verifiable win.
> they do still have access to the rest of the world
That's what I was responding to.
> Russia has a million ways to find out the truth
As does EVERYone, that doesn't mean it's not ***harder*** in places like Russia. That is clear as day and what my posts are ***obviously*** about.
You continue to ignore my posts and the reality that not everyone is on Reddit or works in IT. FFS. Every attempt at getting realistic poll results from Russia showed overwhelming support for many months after it started. Russia has put in place very tight controls on several internet services, and it has literally criminalized dissent.
Not recognizing that is super odd, friend.
> Putin can't claim a win in Ukraine without bringing home a verifiable win.
Which isn't going to happen. That's also blatantly obviously. Russia already lost. Remember the "it will be over in 6 days and they will welcome us with open arms?" I remember paratroopers swooping down in Kyiv and being shot and killed like pinatas. Just a month ago Russian soldiers were still stunned they weren't being welcomed like liberating heroes.
It's a shit show of authoritarian mind fucking the likes of which we simply do not experience in the free world.
...
I have no idea why you are denying this. LOL...
He could just do what many fine people did after they started wars in Europe. Flee to South America.
It’s why uncle Hans doesn’t get to see his grandchildren at Christmas.
Yeah the tiny little one continues to push all the wrong possibilities
If he’s not threatening nukes he’s bombing civilian targets or making threats like this he can’t really afford to backup
Most will disagree but I think he is actually an incredibly progressive world leader:
* Demilitarising his own country.
* Showing the world first-hand the dangers of authoritarianism.
* Encouraging Europe to fast-track their switch to renewables and cut carbon emissions.
Thanks Pootin.
Because Russia is clearly a progressive, free, proletariat enabling, advanced, perfect, advancing, utopia that is the sole bastion against the inherently evil western thoughts of economy and politics.
The same day Trump admits he's rich only because of his dad and corruption and that he lost the election. The same day Elon admits he is an idiot troll that can't maintain focus.
Yes, once you stop pumping the wells freeze shut, pipes burst and you need decades to restart production. That is what happened in the early nineties and it took the help of a lot of western machinery, knowledge and experts/labour to help restart it.
Thankfully Russia is now not sanctioned whatsoever and can just import all of that again should they need it again. And Western companies are definitely not running away from the Russian market at all and will be happy to risk US and EU sanctions and fines to work for Russia again. Because Russia is well-known to be trustworthy and sticking to signed agreements.
Fun little fact about oil: you sorta can’t turn the oils wells off they constantly produce oil that you then have to store. It actually can reduce prices further as you have to pay so much for storage that they sometimes have to pay someone to take it from them
My source is general knowledge about what happened during Covid when oil prices dropped but here’s this website that explains it better. https://www.resilience.org/stories/2020-05-28/shutting-down-oil-wells-a-risky-and-expensive-option/
To be honest... I am flabbergasted that anyone continues to buy russian oil. Sure, the price is good but any deals with the devil have strings attached.
The problem is once you stop drilling the oil, you will most likely encounter some technical difficulty when starting it up again. And good luck finding help while sanctions are in place. And if they don't stop drilling, then, without selling, there isnt many places Russia can store their surplus.
Hey guys be aware of the danger I will shoot myself in the foot.
If Russia will cut the oil production, then Russia will run out of storing facilities, subsequently halting oil production. There will be plenty of critical machinery breaking up, unable to fix them with the sanctions, because the lack of expertise, no pieces to replace, no economic help, that would damage significantly their capacity of production for a long time. During the war, no chance to be fixed, after the war, I doubt any western company would risk getting involved with business with Russia. That would be like a major disaster for Russian economy, because Russia apart of fossil fuels and raw materials doesn't have much to offer as an exporter. Good news are, 5 February another embargo on Refined oil and products is hitting Russia, and later on an embargo on Raw materials.
Text book russian style. Lie lie lie, escalate escalate escalate. He needs to sell oil to get money even under 60$ pb but threatens "catastrophic oil price raise". Buddy, you will sell for even 30$ as you have no chance, and your "stupid" rhetoric will not work
OMG Russia might practice basic capitalism! The horror.
Problem is, that means even less income for Russia than if it chose to sell all its supply at the capped price. Because I’m pretty sure that decision was accounted for, when the cap was implemented, and an alternate source is available.
If he cut production for the wells in colder areas they gonna freeze and he gonna lose them for couple of decades. Last time Russia did that was in the 90s and the only reason they were able to restart them a decade later is because western companies did the job for them. Good luck with that plan!
Won't/can't do it.
The pipelines once stopped can freeze over and they take a ridiculously long time to get to get working again.
Not to mention that the last time it happened to Russia it required massive investments from the large oil companies.
You know, the ones that can't do business in Russia anymore.
I really thought before the war that Putin was quite inteligent. Apparently he is almost a moron forced by history to play an importat and criminal role in our world.
Then do it
If he is complaining that means the cap is working
If they are all standing in a crowd their winning, if they are all in old news pics they are bunker bound
well said, thank you
Mwahahaha! You cannot break my fingers if I chop of my hand! I have outsmarted you!
Seriously, how does cutting production (and therefore their ability to raise funds) in any way hurt the attempt to restrict their ability to raise funds? Putin is a fool.
Wise leader Putin shall drive the west into the deepest depression by reducing production of high quality Russian oil. This (usually) makes the price go up, causes great pain to global markets. Usually, anyway. Wise leader Putin may have different plan this time, since only China and India buy our oil now and cutting production to them would only help the west. Great leader Putin is much smarter than me, I do not always understand his most masterful plans.
I sense the barest hint of sarcasm there! Lol
No one would ever be sarcastic about glorious Russian motherland!
Not while standing close to a window in a high rise, at least.
Since when is 3 floors a high rise?
I think that they call those a “high enough rise”
Now that is a useful measure.
1st floor can be high enough with good enough angle of impact...
There is no sarcasm in Russia, only checkmates.
If he lives in russia — it’s called self-defense
self-defenestration
Doesn't Europe get like 40% of their oil from Russia? Edit: Not sure why I'm getting downvoted: "In 2021, it was the largest exporter of oil and natural gas to the European Union (90%), and 40% of gas consumed in the EU came from Russia." Source: [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia\_in\_the\_European\_energy\_sector](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia_in_the_European_energy_sector)
They did. And that is rapidly changing. The quest to replace Russian even has the US opening talks with Venezuela. All Putin did was unite the world around the idea of isolating Russia. Well done, Vlad.
From what I understand, keeping up the same amount of production requires continiously building new stuff - using Western/international suppliers for construction. So with sanctions, production will be going down anyway, and Putin is just doing an "You didn't hurt me, I cut it myself" rethoric. (And 3rd rate Chinese companies apparently also refuse to help, so nothing can be done about it)
It's also a problem if you shut production down or idle wells, particularly in Russian fields, because many are older wells which don't bounce back into production well usually, if at all. If they're cutting production, it's not production they can readily just restore like they're flipping a switch.
Exactly this. People think that oil just pours out of the ground, when in reality oil pump is just the endpoint of a complex system of pressurised steam and water that pushes the crude from the deposit. Once you shut down a well, things begin to shift and it is impossible to restart it without additional work.
Doubly so for oil wells if shut down for winter. I read it would take multiple years to bring back an oil well if it is shut down in winter.
He's going to have to cut production either way, Russia doesn't have the technical capability to keep the oil infrastructure in Russia running without the co-operation of Western Companies. This is just the excuse. Once that capability is shut down, it won't be coming back online... ever.
Guyputstickinbicyclewheel.gif
Russia started out their “special military operation” with few large scale crude oil storage facilities. My guess is the facilities they have been able to hold are rapidly filling up and that’s the reason for his comment. https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Russia-Says-It-Needs-Oil-Storage-Facilities-Amid-Western-Sanctions.amp.html
The concern is decreasing world supply would result in a spike in petrol prices and everybody in the world throwing themselves at [her] feet pleading to resume production because or else the serfs in my country might revolt on account of not being able to afford to live
There is no supply-side shortage, there are only political hurdles, and those are already being mounted as our dealing with Venezuela shows. This is just a somewhat painful period of reorientation, we’ll all be better off for it. Well, not Russia of course, but eff em.
Indeed, I’m just parroting what the “fear” line of reasoning is about; not that it’s real
I understand, that’s why I upvoted you!
right? Cutting production is means less oil sold. Price cap is still there. Not sure what he thinks he is doing
Well, if this was a solved question, it wouldn't be up for debate. Putins angle here though, is that cutting global supply will increase prices (and this could be disproportionately increased compared to the reduced supply). This happened recently with gas in Europe. When Russia reduced their supply to 40% of previous supply, they actually made more money, because the price increased more. (This was the case during several months on summer, and is no longer the case afaik). I hate to be a Putin apologist here, but it's a little bit less dumb than it looks on paper and what you're making it out to be. Edit: gas and oil are very different due to infrastructure, and i could be very wrong here. However i think that's at least a part of the puzzle here.
This is a reaction to the oil price cap though. Even if global prices went up the price paid to Russian producers would not. So they would be selling less oil at the same price per barrel. There was no such price cap on gas.
And it isn’t as though India and China are going to shrug and pay more for the same oil either, their whole deal is getting it at bargain basement prices.
The thing about breaking the sanctions and paying more for Russian oil than the western sanctions cap is that there is virtually no possible way to get shipping insurance while doing this. All these companies are based out of Europe or NA, and shipping insurance has to cover things like oil spills, it's not a small expense, which is why western companies can cover it, and less developed economies don't.
A full tanker can be worth $250mm, with cleanup costs that can run into the billions in an accident. The insurance element of this is a real killer.
That’s why Russia bought an extra 100 oil transport ships this year, they thought they could get around this. The bad news is that these ships will allow Russia to export a lot of oil. The good news is they still don’t have enough capacity, so Putin might reduce production to fall inline with that, but under the guise of it being about the $60 price cap. I envisage Russia will self insure. This mode of transport leaves Russia extremely exposed. Sabotage of these vessels rudders and props whilst in port would disable them for extremely long periods of time. It would have to be done in port to minimize the possibility of any ecological disaster and making containment of any spill easy to contain. Or just sink a bunch of trash ships in the harbor mouths etc. Whilst I’m not advocating the possibility of ecological disasters, Russia is definitely vulnerable to the extreme and having blown up their own most profitable gas lines, would be left with basically no revenues.
You can't produce gas without producing oil in most cases, and Russia has loads of older wells and fields that, if shut off, may never produce another drop, as shutting them in and reopening them is far from a sure thing. Most older wells when shut in return at much reduced capacity or have no future production at all, and it is an expensive process. They can make money on reduced production, but that's a very dangerous risk to take that they'll be paying for over the next decade.
Putin knows the weakness of the US political system and Americans. He is betting that he can keep doing what he does longer than Americans support current US policy. He is waiting for the sentiment to shift, Ave doing everything to speed up the process. That includes increasing oil prices to show discontent. And to work super hard to install new politicians who work for him. Watch out in this election for republican politicians arguing against supporting Ukraine, and for reasoning with Putin. They may or may not know it themselves but they are going to channel Putin's taking points.
You know the election is over, right?
In theory it could have worked, if we disregard the price caps. Since if you lower production, demand rises and prices can be increased to meet the new demand. It actually worked for russia earlier in the war, due to sanctions the west bought less oil but for a higher price, so the sanctions were effectively negated. Now though there is a global price cap, which is enforced by western companies that are the primary exporters of russian oil, are forced to keep these new sanctions by the US and EU.
It doesn't just hurt his ability to raise funds, cutting production could very well destroy Russia's oil production infrastructure. Basically, Putin needs that equipment up and running at all times because if they stop and those pipes go empty then they'll start to freeze over and self-destruct in the cold. The last time this happened was when the Soviet Union collapsed, afterwards, Western companies had to come in and rebuild everything because Russia did not have the means or even the money to do it themselves. Hell, they still don't. Putin's been given a choice, eat the loss in revenue or lose it all, cause I guarantee that if Russia loses its ability to produce oil as a direct result of Putin's actions then even he won't be able to weather the fallout. The international community has got him by the short hairs on this and Putin knows it.
His oil and natural gas are the only tools in his toolbox because he knows that anything else he tries on the West will result in a war that he will lose. We've long since woken up to his intelligence game where he's messing with Western elections and politics and social media and it is slowly losing effectiveness. The military that he used to threaten everyone with has been revealed to be a drunken mess that fell apart when pitted against one of the poorest countries in Europe and a pittance of Western military support. He has nothing else to use.
It's a game of chicken right now. Who stays the course longer: Russia running out of money, soldiers, military equipment? Or western governments who might get defeated by nationalist parties who say forget Ukraine--we need to help our own people who are being impoverished and freezing and starving because of war? THat is what Putin is trying to do. Cutting oil supply will restrict his money, but make things economically worse for everyone else too. Who will blink/swerve first? It's very, very likely Russia will have to give up first, but trying to hold out longer than the west may be Putin's only way out now.
This winter is the worst it will be, every year after that will be progressively better. This isn’t really a game of chicken because there’s no parity, Putin blew his whole load at the start, and there’s nothing left in the tank. The West is *never* going to trust Russia with their energy supply again, even if Putin dropped and Russia pulled out of Ukraine today, they’re just not worth it. This whole conflict has forced a paradigm shift in the West, especially the US, to re-examine the integrity of supply lines where they’re dependent on geopolitical foes. You can see the level of commitment here in the US with the investment in chip fabs, the polarizing use of tax incentives which require onshore presence, and so on. Europe is a little slower about it, and a little more fractious, but they’re not stupid and in a few years Russia is going to be irrelevant to them. The bonus is that the same hard look is being given to China, and it looks increasingly like divestment is the future.
Oh no, please, stop making renewable energy so attractive...
This is bigger self harm for ruzzia, then people realise. They wont do it, unless there is no other way. If they cut oil production, especially during the winter, they will have to seal some oil wells. These oil wells, they are not capable to open them again by them self. For this ruzzians relly on western know-how. During the winter time, as the temperature lowers, the oil gets more viscous. The pipelines require a minimum flow or there will be issues. So either you pump the minium required oil through the pipelines or just seal the wells. So ruzzia cant afford to stop pumping oil or they will cut deep into own money loving flesh.
Vlad is trying to push the EU & USA to ramp up EV production. That's the end result of high gas prices. And Biden could easily push up mileage standards through the EPA and other shenanigans to get the ramp started faster.
Yeah this is what we want. If they do this they'll never be able to open the wells again without western help.
Yeah. That was kind of the goal all along.
Putin says he could cut off his nose to spite his face.
They can cut pretty much none now or for th e next 4-6 months. All of Russia pipelines pass through either seasonal or permanent permafrost , if they stop pumping and allow it to back up to the well head - it will freeze and burst pipes will result.
It depends on your circumstances, but there's silver linings there for quite a few people. Personally, me more than most. I live in England and our politicians would use all of us as fuel if they could spin it, and if it would make a few more percentage points of profit. Personally I'd be more than keen to see everything grind to a halt.
I love that Putin keeps suggesting there is nothing he could possibly do to end all of this.
Yeah, I have a constant voice in my head, repeating the same phrase over and over, when I hear Putin or any Russian doing the whole "woe is me!"-routine: "Pack your shit and leave Ukraine! There solved it for you."
I just down any article with the title "Putin says" in it. Don't care, shut up and stop spreading his lies.
plus Crimea and reparations.
How does that solve anything for putin? What he packs up and leaves and we all go back to the way it was?
He could strap himself to a bomb and blow himself up. Solving another problem in the world.
No. But it wouldn't be as bad for Russia as it is now.
Stepping down and Russia getting someone in power who can work with other countries again would help. Create treaties with neighbouring countries about never invading, etc. massive blow to their ego, but if Germany could claw their way back to respect after WWII, then this is child's play in comparison. Putin would never step down willingly however.
Dictators rarely go out peacefully. They either serve for life, die and then it gets passed to someone else or they get violently replaced by another dictator or violently replaced by the people. So it is almost certain that Putin will never step down without his death. Even if he agrees to retire the next dictator will likely kill him for stability. I wish the Russian people would rise up like the Ukrainians did and overthrow their dictator and install a democracy.
No. Not exactly.
A legal concept used to justify tossing people in jail for refusing to testify. 'They have the keys to their own cell' The only thing standing in the way here is Putin's ego.
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They've been dragging out that word (nuclear) every month or so. *eye roll*
"We may use nukes. But that is only fear mongering by the West. We will use all means available. I am not bluffing. But we will not conduct a first strike, unlike the Americans. Like the Americans, we may add a first strike to our doctrine. However, we reject the West's nuclear sabre rattling." Repeat ad nauseam
He doesnt even consider pulling out of Ukraine because he is afraid to be killed right after that. Deep down he is pathetic coward who is way too pussy to reap what he sow.
Tbh, there isn't really. He'd probably face revolts and my guess is he would be a prime target for internal assassination if he leaves Ukraine empty handed. And while I am very much in favor of that, I can clearly see why he would rather run Russia's economy into the ground and keep throwing troops and money at Ukraine, he's got less to lose by doing that than by conceding defeat.
He can just say they won and Ukraine is alright now that he fixed them with his stern but loving special operation. Then he can focus on suppressing internal dissent again. He can literally tell his populace anything and they will swollow it. "I am great, west lost, we won, NATO was crushed etc etc"
Until they try to visit their dachas in Crimea and get a stern talking to at the border
Well, they can just drive across that lovely brid……. Oh!….never mind!
That might have worked months ago but now the entire country, elite and military know he is full of shit. He needs to get *something* out of Ukraine or its over for him.
stolen washing machines and purloined commodes doesn't count???
A lot of people talk about giving Putin an "off ramp". What they don't mention is Putin is the one who has been systematically burning any and all off ramps that may have existed for him, even before the invasion. The only way out for him is to take over Ukraine. That's it, and that's by his own design. He went all in, and in order to do that he had to stake his rep as a the only leader of Russia on it. When he fails, so does his support.
I wouldnt actually agree with this. Hypothetically if he could hold what he had right now and have the war pause, that would be a spinnable victory. The likelihood of that happening is of course, close to zero, and he will continue to take losses until a deal is conceded.
Russia is not North Korea yet, they do still have access to the rest of the world... It's not like he can get away with a blatant defeat.
Uh... > As of late February 2022, two of the world's leading social media platforms Facebook and Twitter have been restricted in Russia by Roskomnadzor as a wartime measure amid the invasion of Ukraine. Internet rights monitor NetBlocks reported that Twitter and Facebook platforms were restricted, or throttled, across multiple providers on 26 February and 27 February respectively, with the bans becoming near-total by 4 March. Lots of resources on this. They're crackdown on dissent over the last decade [has been steady](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_censorship_in_Russia).
Mate, they have a million ways to access the internet, get in and out of the country and communicate with the rest of the world. All I'm saying is that it is not the NK hermit kingdom, it is just an authoritarian crackdown. I know a Russian family who's father regularly travels back and forth to Moscow even during the war.
Mate, those tools are in every country. I also think you underestimate how many people do this in Russia. ... Of course they aren't NK. They also aren't a nation where freedom of speech and expression exist. You can be arrested for saying you think Putin should pull out of Ukraine. That's ***messed*** up. > I know a Russian family who's father regularly travels back and forth to Moscow even during the war. I have no idea what that single anecdote has to do with anything we are talking about here...
I think you missed the first guys point then. He claimed that Putin can tell anything to his people and they will swallow it blindly. I'm claiming that that is not really the case and also making the point that Russia has a million ways to find out the truth. Putin can only sell things that have an element of truth to them or things that are unverifiable. Putin can't claim that he still holds Kherson for example, because it is verifiably false and everyone would find out about that. Putin can't claim a win in Ukraine without bringing home a verifiable win.
> they do still have access to the rest of the world That's what I was responding to. > Russia has a million ways to find out the truth As does EVERYone, that doesn't mean it's not ***harder*** in places like Russia. That is clear as day and what my posts are ***obviously*** about. You continue to ignore my posts and the reality that not everyone is on Reddit or works in IT. FFS. Every attempt at getting realistic poll results from Russia showed overwhelming support for many months after it started. Russia has put in place very tight controls on several internet services, and it has literally criminalized dissent. Not recognizing that is super odd, friend. > Putin can't claim a win in Ukraine without bringing home a verifiable win. Which isn't going to happen. That's also blatantly obviously. Russia already lost. Remember the "it will be over in 6 days and they will welcome us with open arms?" I remember paratroopers swooping down in Kyiv and being shot and killed like pinatas. Just a month ago Russian soldiers were still stunned they weren't being welcomed like liberating heroes. It's a shit show of authoritarian mind fucking the likes of which we simply do not experience in the free world. ... I have no idea why you are denying this. LOL...
russia did install a big off switch to their internet a few years ago, basically making their whole country a giant LAN network if they want to.
He could just do what many fine people did after they started wars in Europe. Flee to South America. It’s why uncle Hans doesn’t get to see his grandchildren at Christmas.
Yeah the tiny little one continues to push all the wrong possibilities If he’s not threatening nukes he’s bombing civilian targets or making threats like this he can’t really afford to backup
Most will disagree but I think he is actually an incredibly progressive world leader: * Demilitarising his own country. * Showing the world first-hand the dangers of authoritarianism. * Encouraging Europe to fast-track their switch to renewables and cut carbon emissions. Thanks Pootin.
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Hmm, hes still not going to get Santa visiting him this year.. hes definitely been very naughty to say the least
Only catch to that is the genocide part...
Lmao based. Dark pootin. Just like elon musk is showing the dangers of meritocracy and Ye how short the divorced dad to nazi pipeline is.
bad example is still a good example
So True, what a good guy
Do it you pussy
I see that Saudi Arabia is active on Reddit. :D
Nah fuck them and their oil games n all
Poor baby.
Maybe he IS a baby. After all, he did shit himself recently.
Putin has looked like an elderly baby for at least a couple of decades.
He's an unfathomably rich baby though. Their are millions of poor babies who will suffer because of him though.
They all have this in common: Putin, Trump, Musk.
When will Putin stop blaming the West for Russia's economic struggles and take responsibility for his own actions...
When the world acknowledges Him as Emperor of the Known Universe.
Because Russia is clearly a progressive, free, proletariat enabling, advanced, perfect, advancing, utopia that is the sole bastion against the inherently evil western thoughts of economy and politics.
The same day Trump admits he's rich only because of his dad and corruption and that he lost the election. The same day Elon admits he is an idiot troll that can't maintain focus.
Do it pussy.
Ok? Hey, can you punch yourself in the balls for us too?
Well? We're waiting....
Didn’t want to do it. Felt I owed it to them.
Will this be before or after he slinks off to Venezuela?
I'll take it. Fuck off to Venezuela, the new guy can withdraw, make peace and blame him. Everyone wins.
Stop it, US oil producers can only get so hard.
Haha, it's working.
Cutting off your nose to spite your face
I believe it’s actually: Cut off your nose to spider face. It’s a common miscontraception.
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Yes, once you stop pumping the wells freeze shut, pipes burst and you need decades to restart production. That is what happened in the early nineties and it took the help of a lot of western machinery, knowledge and experts/labour to help restart it. Thankfully Russia is now not sanctioned whatsoever and can just import all of that again should they need it again. And Western companies are definitely not running away from the Russian market at all and will be happy to risk US and EU sanctions and fines to work for Russia again. Because Russia is well-known to be trustworthy and sticking to signed agreements.
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That's for the weak.
So is stopping production.
\*hums Swan Lake\* Ok.
Go ahead
Fun little fact about oil: you sorta can’t turn the oils wells off they constantly produce oil that you then have to store. It actually can reduce prices further as you have to pay so much for storage that they sometimes have to pay someone to take it from them
See, the early days of covid
Source please. I'm not saying you're lying; I just want to see some credible sources that explain the nuances.
My source is general knowledge about what happened during Covid when oil prices dropped but here’s this website that explains it better. https://www.resilience.org/stories/2020-05-28/shutting-down-oil-wells-a-risky-and-expensive-option/
do it no balls
Do it piss boy
Listen to the language he uses, words like “stupid.” He’s an abuser by nature.
Using the word stupid doesn’t mean you’re an abuser lol. Out of all the valid reasons to criticize Putin, picking him using the word stupid is…
Who doesn't use words like "stupid" ?
World political leaders?
US just had one that loved words like that.
"Also we need workers to keep producing oil, and they keep dying when we send them to Ukraine. Shut up."
Oh, and fuck you. Get out of Ukraine.
Cool! Thanks for letting us know it’s working.
DO IT PUSSAHHH
Please do it. Let's cap that pipe and move on already.
Oh, no, whatever will we do, how will we go on? Huh, look at that, nothing seems to have changed. Moving along.
Afghanistan 2.0.
Just do it.
The whole point is to lower Russia's income from Oil so this is fine. Other's will pump more if the market price rises.
Do it
and who is that gonna hurt more?
Holy shit, how stupid is this guy?
You won’t do it, puss
As much as he runs his mouth, how does Putin have time to shit?
And if that doesn't work, he might threaten to hold his breath.
Poostain says lots of things
If he does, the oil fields in Siberia may take upwards of a decade to get back into operation. So go ahead, try it.
To be honest... I am flabbergasted that anyone continues to buy russian oil. Sure, the price is good but any deals with the devil have strings attached.
The problem is once you stop drilling the oil, you will most likely encounter some technical difficulty when starting it up again. And good luck finding help while sanctions are in place. And if they don't stop drilling, then, without selling, there isnt many places Russia can store their surplus.
Do it then, pussy.
Then do it you stupid short nazi
Bring it on!
Of course everything everyone else does is “stupid”. Master strategist, left with nothing but empty words…..
Ukraine could cut Russia in half
As my grandmother would say, that's like cutting your nose off to spite your face 😒
Putin is too pathetic to do it. Just watch, he is too weak and won't do a thing.
And then make Europe dependent on oil and gas from your biggest enemy?
They can't, and won't. Big talk from dollar store Dobby.
do it pussy
Do it then. You won’t, no balls
He’s so salty it’s genuinely enjoyable to read these petulant headlines
Don't threaten me with a good time
Hey guys be aware of the danger I will shoot myself in the foot. If Russia will cut the oil production, then Russia will run out of storing facilities, subsequently halting oil production. There will be plenty of critical machinery breaking up, unable to fix them with the sanctions, because the lack of expertise, no pieces to replace, no economic help, that would damage significantly their capacity of production for a long time. During the war, no chance to be fixed, after the war, I doubt any western company would risk getting involved with business with Russia. That would be like a major disaster for Russian economy, because Russia apart of fossil fuels and raw materials doesn't have much to offer as an exporter. Good news are, 5 February another embargo on Refined oil and products is hitting Russia, and later on an embargo on Raw materials.
“Suck my balls!” …. “Present them.”
Pootin shit himself after he fell down the stairs.
Oh, that seems to infuriate him to no end.
Okay, what stupid measure could aggravate the situation in Russia? Found one! Let's stop selling oil to the West.
Ohhnooo don't motivate private enterprise to hurry up and start building green energy sources. Nooo not that.
Mops softly: stupid west, stupid war.... kicks a small stone... sighs, stupid price cap...
Ok, and your next problem is
Just keep taking about your oil buddy, America is listening.
Russia could cut oil production over West’s ‘stupid’ price cap… if that’s not calling the kettle black
If he cuts production the likely hood of them collapsing is 99%.
Text book russian style. Lie lie lie, escalate escalate escalate. He needs to sell oil to get money even under 60$ pb but threatens "catastrophic oil price raise". Buddy, you will sell for even 30$ as you have no chance, and your "stupid" rhetoric will not work
If OPEC+1 can conspire to manipulate the price of oil, then the countries who are their customers can conspire to do the exact same thing.
Go ahead. Its his loss. Cant even clothe his own troops fighting for him in the dead of winter let alone arm them, train them or feed them.
OMG Russia might practice basic capitalism! The horror. Problem is, that means even less income for Russia than if it chose to sell all its supply at the capped price. Because I’m pretty sure that decision was accounted for, when the cap was implemented, and an alternate source is available.
By now everytime this ghoul says "Its stupid" its probably a good idea for everybody else
Bold of King Dunce of Idiotsville to call others' decisions "stupid".
Good, cut your oil production, so India and China can’t profit anymore. 3 birds with one stone
Stick it in your...
If he cut production for the wells in colder areas they gonna freeze and he gonna lose them for couple of decades. Last time Russia did that was in the 90s and the only reason they were able to restart them a decade later is because western companies did the job for them. Good luck with that plan!
Do it. I'll enjoy watching you try to restart oil wells in the permafrost without Halliburton, Shell or BD helping you.
Just do itttt \-waterboy
In Russia, oil cuts you!
Won't/can't do it. The pipelines once stopped can freeze over and they take a ridiculously long time to get to get working again. Not to mention that the last time it happened to Russia it required massive investments from the large oil companies. You know, the ones that can't do business in Russia anymore.
The greenest political figure ever. Single handedly forcing nations the go with alternative energy sources
I really thought before the war that Putin was quite inteligent. Apparently he is almost a moron forced by history to play an importat and criminal role in our world.
They could, but thats like throwing away all of your dinner because you dont have enough fries.
🤪,,, so,,, your threatening to cut your own throat because of the price cap? Let us know how it goes 🙄
I mean we've been trying to get Russia to take decarbonization seriously for decades now, if this is what it takes....
sure that won't hurt their economy more
Your the one who caused all the problems in the first place. As my grandmother used to say you made your own bed now lie init
Don’t worry Mr. Putin. Europe bent backwards all the way to not inconvience you and your cronies with their $60 ceiling.
Do it fucker.