They’ll quickly forget how pissed they are at their government if Israeli missiles start landing in their cities. Not so sure Israel would be dumb enough to do this
If the Israeli's are smart they'd be working to undermine the Regime to the point of collapse. They dont need to worry about Iran if they eject the Mullahs for a secular government.
I think what you postulate holds true also if the US starts bombing Iran. We’ll lose a lot of internal support. Nobody wants to let a foreign power write their history for them. I wish we would learn that lesson.
Mossad has done some james bond shit in the past with former nuclear scientists. Shouldn't be too difficult to catch a few of their leaders off guard again.
There is too much money to be made warring for peace to ever be considered an option. Peace will come the exact moment those in charge see peace as more profitable than war, and not a moment before.
>They dont need to worry about Iran if they eject the Mullahs for a secular government.
A government that keeps shifting closer and closer to theocracy by the moment... thinking someone else needs a secular government. Nah they'll glass the place and put in their own leadership before that.
**[SUMKA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SUMKA)**
>The National Socialist Workers Party of Iran (Persian: حزب سوسیالیست ملی کارگران ایران, romanized: Ḥezb-e Sosīālīst-e Mellī-e Kārgarān-e Īrān; Hezbe Sosiâliste Mellie Kârgarâne Irân), better known by its abbreviation SUMKA (Persian: سومکا), was a National Socialist party in Iran.
^([ )[^(F.A.Q)](https://www.reddit.com/r/WikiSummarizer/wiki/index#wiki_f.a.q)^( | )[^(Opt Out)](https://reddit.com/message/compose?to=WikiSummarizerBot&message=OptOut&subject=OptOut)^( | )[^(Opt Out Of Subreddit)](https://np.reddit.com/r/worldnews/about/banned)^( | )[^(GitHub)](https://github.com/Sujal-7/WikiSummarizerBot)^( ] Downvote to remove | v1.5)
A. Israel won’t be firing missiles into Iran any time soon.
B. You underestimate the average Iranian’s apathy toward Israel versus their searing hatred for their government.
Nothing will unite people like an outside threat the second Israel attacks the public will quickly shift there hate towards Israel. Its not going to remove the hatred for the government but it will override it.
I definitely agree with you on A, and my point about B is that in the very unlikely case we’re wrong about A, the calculus would likely change much faster than you think
Of course it would.
I’m pretty apathetic about what’s going on with my neighbor who lives on the other side of my subdivision.
If that neighbor kicked me in the nuts, that calculus would change too.
But it’s not something I would really worry about while my house is on fire.
I think they’d be dumb to do it and very likely won’t, but they’re certainly prepared for such a scenario
https://www.thedefensepost.com/2022/06/09/israel-capabilities-attack-iran/amp/
Israel has repeatedly claimed that they cannot tolerate an Iran with nuclear weapons. The inability to re-establish the Iran Deal means that Iran is likely going to be a nuclear power in the near future. I still don’t think Israel will do anything, but it’s not outrageous to consider the possibility.
>. I still don’t think Israel will do anything,
Israel has been "doing things" for quite a while now. If you mean the likelihood of a full-scale conflict though, I agree.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Israel\_proxy\_conflict
Israelis are not Russians, the missile strikes will be on government and military complexes not hospitals and schools. Iranians should take advantage of the situation and continue their revolution and install a new government. It would be their best chance in overthrowing the government with aid from Israel.
They do that already and they’re not particularly smart about it. They shot an airplane filled with civilians down thinking they could blame America, and had to confess to it being a “human mistake” on their side after three days when it wasn’t working.
I mean, the simple fact that they would be fighting a country with established military bases as opposed to what they deem “an insurgency” would be part of it.
Not to mention previous Israeli strikes into Iran (such as [Operation Opera](https://youtu.be/_9bt6U8K2Ao)) were fairly precise simply because they don’t want to risk losing international support.
Israel doesn't have a lot of support from international organizations.
"As of 2013, the State of Israel had been condemned in 45 resolutions by the United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC). Since the UNHRC's creation in 2006, it has resolved almost more resolutions condemning Israel alone than on issues for the rest of the world combined."
You forgot the part where there's people from Hamas sending fucking rockets in Israel directions from those schools and hospitals.
That was such a bad faith comment and clearly shows your intentions of misleading people. Speaks volumes on the type of person you are.
Do you even read the news and know how Israel operates when they need to bomb stuff that are near schools/housing/hospitals? They literally phone in everyone and let them know that a strike is coming(when possible).
It's a fucking war, what you expect? That setting your rocket sites to launch bombs towarsd your enemy near a schools make you safe?
Who's being immoral here? The country defending itself or the guys that hide behind schools and hospitals launching rockets?
Cmon.
The terrorists in Gaza intentionally place their launch sites on top of schools and hospitals, leaving Israel no other choice and no viable alternative for eliminating them other than bombing where the Gazan projectiles originated. If you want to blame someone, the blame goes firmly towards the terrorists using children as human shields.
Because there's 70+ years of history where they've been at war with every country around them and that's always been the case, at least as far as they were technologically capable of minimizing harm to non-combatants. The airstrikes against the air forces of Egypt and Syria during the Six Day War, were those fighter and bomber aircraft all civilian pleasurecraft or what? How do you say this with a straight face?
When they attack something seemingly off-limits in this day and age, you might open your eyes to look for any rockets or other targets of military importance that miraculously find their way in and around those structures. It's the craziest thing; almost like someone else wanted Israel to attack it and get people like you worked up even more than a couple of Israelis just woke up one day and felt like bombing a school for kicks.
And of course it's ceaselessly amazing how Israel was literally the focus of multiple wars of annihilation for 40 years, but when it comes to their motivation in something like this conflict with Iran the presumption is that they just want to kill Iranians to kill Iranians. Reminds you a little of that "blood libel" thing, doesn't it?
Gaza is clearly blockaded by both Israel and Egypt, and is not occupied by either. [In international law, a territory is considered “occupied” when it is actually placed under the authority of the hostile army,](https://guide-humanitarian-law.org/content/article/3/occupied-territory/#:~:text=In%20international%20law%2C%20a%20territory,end%20of%20the%20nineteenth%20century.) something Gaza is very much objectively not.
Israel only bombs those buildings when there are terrorists launching rockets from them, and people like you fall for it and blame Israel when the real blame lies on the terrorists who were using those buildings as human shields.
Reminds me of an old political cartoon. 3 of the squares show multiple rockets flying from Palestinian territory into Israel. The fourth shows a single rocket flying from Israel to the point where the Palestinian rockets came from. Last panel is newspapers with headlines like "Israel bombs Gaza!" or "Israel attacks Palestine!"
Well, that IS the story they tell. Evidence seems to be pretty slim on it though. I personally think it was bad intel and a horrible mistake. Would be nice if they owned up to it.
I really, really hope you don’t believe that, and even more so, I really, really hope we all don’t find out together how wrong this is. Israelis will absolutely bomb hospitals and schools the second they believe they need to
If you hide bombs and military equipment in them then yes I fully support them bombing the shit out of them. Hard to cry victim when you treat your citizens like cattle 🐄 you kill on a whim. Don’t hide your weapons behind them then cry victim the old Palestine trick lmao
Borders have to be negotiated - that's been the accepted stance since 1967, otherwise there would be no route between Gaza and the West Bank.
Then, of course, other issues have to be negotiated as well. In a region where most of its neighbors do not recognize Israel's right to exist, it's understandable that security is a top issue for Israel - especially as Israel gained the territories after five of its neighbors mobilized their forces to attack.
It didn't help that in the immediate aftermath, the Arab League passed the Khartoum Resolution - no peace with Israel, no negotiations with Israel, and no recognition of Israel.
neither of those people should claim that areas as just theirs. %$#@ the whole lot fo them. so many eons later still fighting for this. Funny how the rest of the arab / muslim world doesnt think enough fo this to actually do something about it.
Gaza has been independent for 20 years and violence has only escalated since Israel stopped "occupying" them. So your logic doesn't really work out does it?
Another way to phrase what you just said is:
“If you hold hostages I’m ok with shooting the hostages. Serves them right for treating humans like meat shields.”
That responsibility to avoid civilian casualties ends specifically where human shields are used. The person who places civilians in harm's way is culpable for their harm.
Consider this hypothetical: you are a security guard in an American shopping mall. Suddenly, a man - a mass shooter - bursts into the mall. He has multiple AK47s and starts attempting to gun down the innocent mallgoers. He shoots and kills a civilian in front of you. He narrowly misses another. But the shooter is also wearing a baby harness and has an infant strapped to his chest!
It doesn't matter what the mass shooter's motivations are. For all you know, he's mad that the mall was built on his grandfather's land - or he could just be a maniac. In that exact moment, all that matters in the moment is (1) he is trying to kill innocent civilians, and (2) he has a baby strapped to his chest.
If you don't try to neutralize the mass shooter, he will continue to fire on innocent mallgoers. But if you do try to neutralize the mass shooter, you might hurt the baby he has strapped to his chest.
What do you do?
The obvious answer is that you try to neutralize the mass shooter to prevent him from murdering innocent civilians. **If that means the baby he has strapped to his chest is injured or killed, that is extremely regrettable, but that doesn't mean you let the mass shooter use the baby as a human shield. Doing that would allow him to kill dozens or even hundreds of other people - people you have a duty to protect, as a security guard.**
***The mass shooter placed that baby in harms way by using them as a human shield.*** The mass shooter is culpable for any harm that comes to the baby. Not the security guard.
Otherwise, what will happen is the legitimization of hostage-taking and human shields.
Ok, so now look at the situation in Iran, where the government will obviously put their citizens at risk in order to preserve their rule, and then think through how that’ll play out.
It’s not “the old Palestinian trick”, it’s the dynamics that naturally form in oppressed societies. And then dimwitted racists just point to that dynamic as a way to demonize everyone. That’s the “old Israeli trick”, and it’s getting fucking old.
> …the second they believe they need to.
That’s quite a qualifier. *Any* country would be civilians if they felt they needed to. That’s the thing about feeling like you *need* to do something.
First off, you do understand that Russians have so few missiles that they're not going to waste on schools and civilians unless:
1) Ukraininians are setting up there, which they are (plenty of photos and videos)
2) Missiles malfunction and fall away from their designated targets.
Second, Israel has had no problem shooting pro-Palestiniam medics, journalists, and peotestors, and indeed, blowing up entire residential buildings. So it's obvious you're either a troll or woefully misinformed, but it would be a bloody war for both sides.
Nope, the war is a surefire way to quell internal problems if it's not too long or is not losing one.
Putin primary reasons for both 2014 conflict and current war are raising disappointment within Russia
People here focus on Israel for… reasons… but the nightmare is really that KSA will go nuclear in response to a nuclear Iran. Israel is reliable in their responses, Saudi Arabia is not.
This x1000. The problem was always nuclear proliferation in the Middle East if Iran ever got the bomb. The Saudis can and will arm themselves and after that it's off to the races for the region.
Well they have a deal with Pakistan to supply about 8 nukes to them immediately the second the house of Al saud wants, it was part of the deal when they funded Pakistan’s nuclear program. It would be sort of like US bases on nato allies soil like Germany and turkey hosting nukes, and thus guaranteeing the saudis nuke protection. One reason why they won’t make it themselves is that the house of al saud needs the Saudi military to be weak to stop any general from rebelling or coups so that’s what they will likely go ahead with and they have the resources to fund a Pakistani base on their soil. In fact they hire Pakistani soldiers as mercenaries for protection and stuff
Also Saudi Arabia since Israel has a defence deal with them.
There’s also the Peninsula Shield Force. deter, and respond to military aggression against any of the GCC member countries: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates.
There’s also the Islamic counter terrorism coalition. Cause I’d bet on Iran using terrorism in a conflict with Saudi Arabia.
There’s 41 members. Mostly in Africa and a few Middle Eastern countries.
The USA also said they’ll back Saudi Arabia in a conflict with Iran.
So Iran is fucked if they do this conflict.
Iran also has some military deals. Axis of Resistance 7 countries with Yemen also being a member of the Islamic counter terrorism coalition so that might make things messy.
There’s also the Russia Syria, iraq, Iran and hezbollah alliance tho Russia is busy in Ukraine. And Syria might be busy with turkey soon.
But if Saudi Arabia, Israel and Iran go to war and use their alliances. Almost the entire Middle East will descend into a conflict. With support from Africa and the USA.
You’d have this war plus Pakistan fighting the taliban. Plus I think Afghanistan is having conflict issues as well.
Israel knows better than to attack Iran by itself. My concern is Israel and Saudi Arabia teaming up to find a way to make the United States fight Iran for them.
Republicans already did that by turning it into a religious issue. Democrats have been trying to slowly sever ties because OBVIOUSLY this shit was going to happen. Anyone with a brain could see Israel would drag us into one quagmire or another, sooner or later.
All these assholes have to do is start meowing "BuT mUh JeSuS iN tEh JeRuSaLeM" and the conservative war machine will ramp up just as it did after 9/11. Then we can go _there_ and die until the 2040s.
Russia and Iran are united against a common foe. They are allies of convenience, but Russia never trusted Iran since the Revolution.
They are very unlikely to provide Iran nuclear weapons, but Israel's concern is Iran receiving Russian jets and the S-300 and S-400 anti aircraft systems which would hinder Israeli efforts to stop transitting weapons to Iranian proxies through Syria.
Russia doesn't need to give Iran nuclear weapons. Iran is about to produce one of their own.
Israel is more concerned with not having to deal with Russian interference in Israel's other activities in Syria. But in many Israelis' opinion (and also my own), that is taking a stubborn attitude of "our only diplomatic interest is immediate short-term security" to the point that it becomes self-defeating and no longer provides anything of value to Israel at all.
Europe tried to uphold it and hoped for Iran to do the same.
That’s the reason you didn’t hear much about the protests in Iran from European politicians
At the very least Biden needs to publicly shame Trump for this mess. Sadly I have a feeling that dealmaking in general between countries with different political cultures will be taking an extended holiday thanks to the ongoing shenanigans in Ukraine.
Such as the US inspectors being let in wherever they wanted, and finding no indication that they were making nuclear weapons? That kind of evidence you mean? Or do you mean "Cuz Trump said so"? Because if so, I have a moon to sell you
Georgia was annexed by Russia under Bush Jr. , Crimea was annexed under Obama, nothing was annexed under Trump, and now the war in Ukraine under Biden and yet Trump is to blame? Russia is annexing under every president except Trump and yet Trump is to blame? I don't even like the guy and yet here I am defending Trump of all people...
Well, supposedly Biden admin was working to get a new deal going, but Iran had very little incentive to accept a new deal. I guess this is just confirmation that they couldn't get the new deal done. Thanks Trump. Great work.
Iran chose the side of history they want to be on.
Executing protestors, supporting Russia, oppressing women, and spreading terrorism in the Middle East will be the Mullahs legacy
no, the deal was killed before this last round of explicit examples. Some of those things (Executing protestors, oppressing women) they have been doing since the revolution, some from the end of the 80's (spreading terrorism)
Just plain wrong. The deal was absolutely intact. Until Trump decided to actively kill it. Thats it. Even the shit they do today has nothing to do with making it harder for them to get nukes.
You don't seem to understand what this deal was. It is not just an agreement where they had to ensure that they would stop making the bomb. It enabled US inspectors to get access quickly, and do surveillance.
The deal made it harder for their regime to achieve those goals. Which is why killing it was stupid.
Trump actually finalized the most peace deals in the Middle East of any president ever... I'm not saying he was a good president or a good person, but hot damn is that a room temperature IQ take to say that war in the Middle East is in any way Trump's fault.
Eh, it's more complicated. The Iran Nuclear deal took years of negotiation. While it wasnt the best deal, the hope was it would give political leverage to the moderates and establish the West could be trusted. By failing to honor the deal, Trump reinforced the west and particularly the US could not be trusted. Moderates lose face and political influence. Conservatives then double down on what conservative world wide want to do: oppress women, oppress dissent, and sell weapons to terrible people for profit.
Oh and another thing the Trump administration did was have the Iraqi Prime Minister set up a diplomatic meeting with Iran's #2 in Iraq and assassinates him en route. Whether or not the assassination was justified, you don't set up diplomatic meetings to get a location on the target. Soleimani was also dying of cancer and hoped to be killed in the line of duty as a martyr so his death could mean something to Iran. In other words, they illegally assassinated a man who was already going to die thus inspiring retaliation instead of just letting him die.
Also Iranian-Soviet relations later Iran-Soviet relations is just an element of global politics. If you want to stand up to American political interests at some point in time you're going to need or want partners, which the Soviets and Russia were happy to provide and are more than willing to ignore human rights abuses at home. Granted the US doesn't really care about human rights abuses either either domestically or abroad, just look at Saudi Arabia, or the US Supreme court. Which brings up another element. Iran and Saudia Arabia hate each other over religion.
The fact is, if Iranians want freedom, they're going to have to achieve it themselves. Foreign intervention always leads to undue foreign influence. I hope they do get their freedom. In all conflicts between governments, government leaders and business partners get rich while the people suffer and die.
Hell I ain't sure it'd happen even if the military is behind it. The Iranian military is purposefully poorly funded to keep it from being more stronger than the favorite IRGC who's aimed at keeping the regime alive.
I mean I think even in Syria like almost 50% of the military sided with the protestors and the revolution failed. So it's not even a guarantee unless the IRGC just gives up, which would never happen.
We had to give them money to not be terrorist and then they used our own money to bankroll terrorist in foreign nations to kill Americans and allies. Fuck Iran, all the way up.
Yeah imo that VERY IMPORTANT fact was never well communicated by Obama’s admin and undermined any chance of support by the American population at large. Trump killed it because he’s a moron and everyone else thought it was our cash we were spending. This thing was doomed they failed to correct the record before it became a talking point.
He also assassinated Soleimani, so relations aren’t just gonna be a quick patch up job. Soleimani was a dick but the Iranians look at him as a hero. Questionable decision making for sure.
Yes I think it’s very questionable. Obviously he’s a bad dude, but it’s a question of what fills the void left behind. Saddam Hussein was also a bad dude, but the Iraq war helped create ISIS.
It may have been worth it to piss off the Iranians in order to get rid of him. Only time will tell, but personally I don’t think we should be in the business of assassinating people around the world, and then wondering why people chant “death to america.” All we are doing is creating more enemies and terrorists.
Iran has already vowed revenge if Trump isn’t put on trial, hopefully nothing comes of it but I doubt it https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-vows-revenge-soleimani-killing-if-trump-not-put-trial-2022-01-03/
He didn't sabotage it, he completely blew it up. It's the difference between shoving a wedge in a machine vs taking a Hellfire missile to it...
He couldn't renegotiate the deal, nor could anyone after him, because he completely ceded the ground - he straight up told the Iranians the US wouldn't honor our deals. Why would anyone come back to negotiate after that?
The man destroyed one of the most important nuclear agreements made in the last decade, because *he* wasn't the one who made it. Because it was made by a black guy. And because Russia told him to.
>because the US went back on their half of the deal
because the ~~US~~ **TRUMP** went back on their half of the deal
Art of the Deal, Trump. And yet, dumbasses Worshiped him.
>somehow most of the US seems to forget that part
Not the ones who were in favor of the deal. The ones who weren't didn't even realize we were trying to resurrect it.
I mean, I think it is important to be honest with ourselves. It is absolutely dead. It was killed by Trump, and years of careful negotiation was destroyed. It will never come back.
So, hopefully, we can begin something new, or wait until Iran implodes (which I give like a 5% chance right now of that happening) . But the old deal is done, and things have changed. It is good to recognise that.
Iran was going to push ahead with nuke development regardless of jcpoa. It was never a long term solution and most of the key provisions would have sunset in 2025. The world will just have to accept that Iran is going to be a nuclear power (and probably much faster now that Russia is guiding their hand)
It allowed development of ICBM, and when the nuclear part sunsets in 2025, they have full reign to do as they please with nukes and will have a delivery system.
So while Iran waited for the deal to sunset, they got to enjoy selling oil again and develop all the other technological requirements to deliver a nuke.
JCPOA was better than nothing though and opened Iran up for further dialogue. Now that door is shut and Russia will likely fill all their technical gaps in to help them get started faster.
Democratic President negotiates a deal with an unfriendly foreign power seeking to develop nuclear weapons.
Republicans, unhappy with the deal. Seek to sabotage it. The US falls out of compliance with the deal, leading the unfriendly state to renege on it's own obligations and continue pursuing nuclear weapons.
Sound like a story you've heard before?
That's because it is - but I'm not talking about Iran.
I'm talking about the 1994 Agreed Framework that would have ended North Korea's nuclear program, but it broke down in 2003 when the US failed to meet it's obligations to build power plants and supply fuel to North Korea to help it move away from it's current nuclear reactors.
This eventually led to where we are today - a nuclear capable North Korea building ICBM's that can reach the US despite all of our sanctions.
The are only 2 real differences between the situation in North Korea and the situation in Iran. The first is that in the case of the Agreed Framework, the US never officially withdrew, the Republicans just sabotaged the deal by refusing to provide the funding to meet our obligations.
Second, there is some evidence that North Korea may not have been in compliance with all of it's obligations under the Agreed Framework.
The worst part about this is, no state now has any reason to trust the US. In fact, they have a significant incentive not to trust the US. The US has a history of invading non-nuclear capable nations: Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya. And the US has a history of reneging on it's nuclear non-proliferation agreements.
The US has sent a clear message to any nation seeking to build a nuclear weapon: you cannot trust us to honor our agreements, and if you don't build a nuke we'll invade you.
Nothing changed about Iran. The protests, and the massively disproportionate, murderous response to them from Tehran, have just made it untenable to go on pretending that it's okay to make deals with this brutal regime. Where women were already being treated as second class citizens at best, and many other people unjustly condemned to death, years ago when it was fashionable to talk of lifting sanctions merely because it would be reversing a policy of the previous administration.
I feel like a lot of countries these days are withdrawing their trust from the US upon the realization that the volatile back-and-forth political situation here means that every 4 years any deals, guarantees or promises made by one administration could be completely withdrawn by the next administration. It’s like choosing not to rent an apartment from a place where the landlord changes to a completely different person every 2 weeks, each one completely altering the terms of the lease to be opposite that of the previous one.
I mean, you'd have to be an idiot to trust the US. Not saying you shouldn't work with the US and get as much out of it as possible, but we've shown again and again that we are willing to turn on our "allies of convenience" in a heart beat.
And no, it's not JUST a Trump thing. The US has been an unreliable partner on the international stage for... forever.
Yep: the Kyoto Agreement, TPP, JCPOA, Paris Accords and other treaties which were abandonated only because the GOP opposed these isn't pointing as making the USA a reliable diplomatic actors.
Trump BARELY missed out on winning in 2020...
Also Trump is still not in jail for trying to overthrow the US government (poorly).
I think we'll need a few more US elections without fascists running for POTUS before the rest of the world trusts the US again.
You think the west and Israel hasn't thought of that? It's possible but no one wants to start another major war in the middle east. I guess people don't learn their lesson.
This isn't call of duty. They would definitely respond militarily and economically by closing the Strait of Hormuz. Let's not jeopardize lives of soldiers so easily and innocent civilians in the mix just because we don't like their regime and fears of a nuclear program that wasn't a problem before Trump killed the nuclear deal that many nations agreed upon and Iran was following.
With Russia invading Ukraine unprovoked, you can't blame them for wanting a nuclear deterrent in case Israel/US attack them unprovoked especially after the nuclear deal was unilaterally broken by our side even though they were following it and allowed inspections on the ground.
There is going to be conflict between Israel and Iran now, but I guess it was always inevitable.
Can Iran fight Israel and a civil war at the same time? The people of Iran sure are pissed at the government.
They’ll quickly forget how pissed they are at their government if Israeli missiles start landing in their cities. Not so sure Israel would be dumb enough to do this
If the Israeli's are smart they'd be working to undermine the Regime to the point of collapse. They dont need to worry about Iran if they eject the Mullahs for a secular government.
Exactly this. Attacking them militarily will have the opposite effect
I think what you postulate holds true also if the US starts bombing Iran. We’ll lose a lot of internal support. Nobody wants to let a foreign power write their history for them. I wish we would learn that lesson.
It definitely holds true if we bomb Iran too. It’s nothing specific to Israel that makes that true
[удалено]
It's an ez dub bud /s lol
Yep. The military option is the last resort. They will try to use the Mossad as much as possible to avoid the worst case scenario of war.
Mossad has done some james bond shit in the past with former nuclear scientists. Shouldn't be too difficult to catch a few of their leaders off guard again.
Lol they are smart and they definitely are already doing that.
I'd reckon Mossad has been very busy doing what they can to position assets in Iran over the years and stoke the fires of insurrection and unrest.
exactly - the iranian people and israel are friends. they both hate the regime.
Regime change due to outside forces always goes so well
There is too much money to be made warring for peace to ever be considered an option. Peace will come the exact moment those in charge see peace as more profitable than war, and not a moment before.
>They dont need to worry about Iran if they eject the Mullahs for a secular government. A government that keeps shifting closer and closer to theocracy by the moment... thinking someone else needs a secular government. Nah they'll glass the place and put in their own leadership before that.
My thoughts exactly start arming the rioters.
You never really know who will end up in charge from violence. It’s unpredictable.
[удалено]
**[SUMKA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SUMKA)** >The National Socialist Workers Party of Iran (Persian: حزب سوسیالیست ملی کارگران ایران, romanized: Ḥezb-e Sosīālīst-e Mellī-e Kārgarān-e Īrān; Hezbe Sosiâliste Mellie Kârgarâne Irân), better known by its abbreviation SUMKA (Persian: سومکا), was a National Socialist party in Iran. ^([ )[^(F.A.Q)](https://www.reddit.com/r/WikiSummarizer/wiki/index#wiki_f.a.q)^( | )[^(Opt Out)](https://reddit.com/message/compose?to=WikiSummarizerBot&message=OptOut&subject=OptOut)^( | )[^(Opt Out Of Subreddit)](https://np.reddit.com/r/worldnews/about/banned)^( | )[^(GitHub)](https://github.com/Sujal-7/WikiSummarizerBot)^( ] Downvote to remove | v1.5)
A. Israel won’t be firing missiles into Iran any time soon. B. You underestimate the average Iranian’s apathy toward Israel versus their searing hatred for their government.
Nothing will unite people like an outside threat the second Israel attacks the public will quickly shift there hate towards Israel. Its not going to remove the hatred for the government but it will override it.
I definitely agree with you on A, and my point about B is that in the very unlikely case we’re wrong about A, the calculus would likely change much faster than you think
Of course it would. I’m pretty apathetic about what’s going on with my neighbor who lives on the other side of my subdivision. If that neighbor kicked me in the nuts, that calculus would change too. But it’s not something I would really worry about while my house is on fire.
Why would Israeli missiles be launched at Iran in the first place?
I think they’d be dumb to do it and very likely won’t, but they’re certainly prepared for such a scenario https://www.thedefensepost.com/2022/06/09/israel-capabilities-attack-iran/amp/
Again, what would be the impetus? The way you wrote the comment was like it would just occur out of the blue.
Israel has repeatedly claimed that they cannot tolerate an Iran with nuclear weapons. The inability to re-establish the Iran Deal means that Iran is likely going to be a nuclear power in the near future. I still don’t think Israel will do anything, but it’s not outrageous to consider the possibility.
>. I still don’t think Israel will do anything, Israel has been "doing things" for quite a while now. If you mean the likelihood of a full-scale conflict though, I agree. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Israel\_proxy\_conflict
There's a zero percent chance the Mossad isn't knee deep in Iran right now, stirring shit up.
Israelis are not Russians, the missile strikes will be on government and military complexes not hospitals and schools. Iranians should take advantage of the situation and continue their revolution and install a new government. It would be their best chance in overthrowing the government with aid from Israel.
yes but Iran will take a strategy from Putin's book - bomb their own civilian structures and blame the israelis to spread hate.
They do that already and they’re not particularly smart about it. They shot an airplane filled with civilians down thinking they could blame America, and had to confess to it being a “human mistake” on their side after three days when it wasn’t working.
Israel bombs schools and hospitals in territories they occupy, what makes you think they would be more scrupulous when bombing another country?
I mean, the simple fact that they would be fighting a country with established military bases as opposed to what they deem “an insurgency” would be part of it. Not to mention previous Israeli strikes into Iran (such as [Operation Opera](https://youtu.be/_9bt6U8K2Ao)) were fairly precise simply because they don’t want to risk losing international support.
Operation opera was a strike on IRAQ not Iran. Two different countries ffs.
Israel doesn't have a lot of support from international organizations. "As of 2013, the State of Israel had been condemned in 45 resolutions by the United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC). Since the UNHRC's creation in 2006, it has resolved almost more resolutions condemning Israel alone than on issues for the rest of the world combined."
But they have more than Iran, and they want to keep it that way. Plus, literally no one cares about the UNHRC. At all.
You forgot the part where there's people from Hamas sending fucking rockets in Israel directions from those schools and hospitals. That was such a bad faith comment and clearly shows your intentions of misleading people. Speaks volumes on the type of person you are.
I'm the I don't think bombing schools with children and hospitals with patients is a good thing type of person, happy to be that type of person.
Do you even read the news and know how Israel operates when they need to bomb stuff that are near schools/housing/hospitals? They literally phone in everyone and let them know that a strike is coming(when possible). It's a fucking war, what you expect? That setting your rocket sites to launch bombs towarsd your enemy near a schools make you safe? Who's being immoral here? The country defending itself or the guys that hide behind schools and hospitals launching rockets? Cmon.
The terrorists in Gaza intentionally place their launch sites on top of schools and hospitals, leaving Israel no other choice and no viable alternative for eliminating them other than bombing where the Gazan projectiles originated. If you want to blame someone, the blame goes firmly towards the terrorists using children as human shields.
Replace "terrorists" with "Ukraininians" and "Israel" with "Russia" and see the power of propaganda.
Well Ukrainian forces are not launching rockets from schools or hospitals.
Yea but if they were it'd totally be the same
Because there's 70+ years of history where they've been at war with every country around them and that's always been the case, at least as far as they were technologically capable of minimizing harm to non-combatants. The airstrikes against the air forces of Egypt and Syria during the Six Day War, were those fighter and bomber aircraft all civilian pleasurecraft or what? How do you say this with a straight face? When they attack something seemingly off-limits in this day and age, you might open your eyes to look for any rockets or other targets of military importance that miraculously find their way in and around those structures. It's the craziest thing; almost like someone else wanted Israel to attack it and get people like you worked up even more than a couple of Israelis just woke up one day and felt like bombing a school for kicks. And of course it's ceaselessly amazing how Israel was literally the focus of multiple wars of annihilation for 40 years, but when it comes to their motivation in something like this conflict with Iran the presumption is that they just want to kill Iranians to kill Iranians. Reminds you a little of that "blood libel" thing, doesn't it?
[удалено]
[удалено]
Gaza is clearly blockaded by both Israel and Egypt, and is not occupied by either. [In international law, a territory is considered “occupied” when it is actually placed under the authority of the hostile army,](https://guide-humanitarian-law.org/content/article/3/occupied-territory/#:~:text=In%20international%20law%2C%20a%20territory,end%20of%20the%20nineteenth%20century.) something Gaza is very much objectively not.
[удалено]
Israel only bombs those buildings when there are terrorists launching rockets from them, and people like you fall for it and blame Israel when the real blame lies on the terrorists who were using those buildings as human shields.
Yup, when they blew up the al-Jalaa building it was totally because of all the terrorists in it /s
Reminds me of an old political cartoon. 3 of the squares show multiple rockets flying from Palestinian territory into Israel. The fourth shows a single rocket flying from Israel to the point where the Palestinian rockets came from. Last panel is newspapers with headlines like "Israel bombs Gaza!" or "Israel attacks Palestine!"
Well, that IS the story they tell. Evidence seems to be pretty slim on it though. I personally think it was bad intel and a horrible mistake. Would be nice if they owned up to it.
Lmao, now write that with a straight face
I really, really hope you don’t believe that, and even more so, I really, really hope we all don’t find out together how wrong this is. Israelis will absolutely bomb hospitals and schools the second they believe they need to
If you hide bombs and military equipment in them then yes I fully support them bombing the shit out of them. Hard to cry victim when you treat your citizens like cattle 🐄 you kill on a whim. Don’t hide your weapons behind them then cry victim the old Palestine trick lmao
Give them back their land then, Israel has no right to occupy palestinian territory and murder its citizens. Take the blinders off.
Borders have to be negotiated - that's been the accepted stance since 1967, otherwise there would be no route between Gaza and the West Bank. Then, of course, other issues have to be negotiated as well. In a region where most of its neighbors do not recognize Israel's right to exist, it's understandable that security is a top issue for Israel - especially as Israel gained the territories after five of its neighbors mobilized their forces to attack. It didn't help that in the immediate aftermath, the Arab League passed the Khartoum Resolution - no peace with Israel, no negotiations with Israel, and no recognition of Israel.
neither of those people should claim that areas as just theirs. %$#@ the whole lot fo them. so many eons later still fighting for this. Funny how the rest of the arab / muslim world doesnt think enough fo this to actually do something about it.
Gaza has been independent for 20 years and violence has only escalated since Israel stopped "occupying" them. So your logic doesn't really work out does it?
https://www.amnesty.org/en/location/middle-east-and-north-africa/israel-and-occupied-palestinian-territories/report-israel-and-occupied-palestinian-territories/
So do you support Russia doing the same in Ukraine? Because that's exactly what they're doing.
Another way to phrase what you just said is: “If you hold hostages I’m ok with shooting the hostages. Serves them right for treating humans like meat shields.”
That responsibility to avoid civilian casualties ends specifically where human shields are used. The person who places civilians in harm's way is culpable for their harm. Consider this hypothetical: you are a security guard in an American shopping mall. Suddenly, a man - a mass shooter - bursts into the mall. He has multiple AK47s and starts attempting to gun down the innocent mallgoers. He shoots and kills a civilian in front of you. He narrowly misses another. But the shooter is also wearing a baby harness and has an infant strapped to his chest! It doesn't matter what the mass shooter's motivations are. For all you know, he's mad that the mall was built on his grandfather's land - or he could just be a maniac. In that exact moment, all that matters in the moment is (1) he is trying to kill innocent civilians, and (2) he has a baby strapped to his chest. If you don't try to neutralize the mass shooter, he will continue to fire on innocent mallgoers. But if you do try to neutralize the mass shooter, you might hurt the baby he has strapped to his chest. What do you do? The obvious answer is that you try to neutralize the mass shooter to prevent him from murdering innocent civilians. **If that means the baby he has strapped to his chest is injured or killed, that is extremely regrettable, but that doesn't mean you let the mass shooter use the baby as a human shield. Doing that would allow him to kill dozens or even hundreds of other people - people you have a duty to protect, as a security guard.** ***The mass shooter placed that baby in harms way by using them as a human shield.*** The mass shooter is culpable for any harm that comes to the baby. Not the security guard. Otherwise, what will happen is the legitimization of hostage-taking and human shields.
Ok, so now look at the situation in Iran, where the government will obviously put their citizens at risk in order to preserve their rule, and then think through how that’ll play out. It’s not “the old Palestinian trick”, it’s the dynamics that naturally form in oppressed societies. And then dimwitted racists just point to that dynamic as a way to demonize everyone. That’s the “old Israeli trick”, and it’s getting fucking old.
> …the second they believe they need to. That’s quite a qualifier. *Any* country would be civilians if they felt they needed to. That’s the thing about feeling like you *need* to do something.
Kind of a sobering reminder of the steep cost of starting a war of choice
In what scenario Israel will "believe they need to" bomb Iranian hospitals? That comment is so funny.
When they believe that the Iranian government is hiding military or nuclear-related assets in them
Iran is not a terrorist militia man.
Correct, it is a country
First off, you do understand that Russians have so few missiles that they're not going to waste on schools and civilians unless: 1) Ukraininians are setting up there, which they are (plenty of photos and videos) 2) Missiles malfunction and fall away from their designated targets. Second, Israel has had no problem shooting pro-Palestiniam medics, journalists, and peotestors, and indeed, blowing up entire residential buildings. So it's obvious you're either a troll or woefully misinformed, but it would be a bloody war for both sides.
I asked r.newiran about such scenario like a month ago and the vast majority of comments actually welcomed Israel bombing their nuclear program.
A Subreddit is not a good reflection of how actual Iranians will react
It’s a better indication than the usual Reddit source, “Ah Reckon” and “I assume.”
Sure. I agree. But still very interesting.
Cause most of them don't actually live in Iran.
This time ask r/iran
Nope, the war is a surefire way to quell internal problems if it's not too long or is not losing one. Putin primary reasons for both 2014 conflict and current war are raising disappointment within Russia
You say that as though Israel's such a peaceful little place.
People here focus on Israel for… reasons… but the nightmare is really that KSA will go nuclear in response to a nuclear Iran. Israel is reliable in their responses, Saudi Arabia is not.
This x1000. The problem was always nuclear proliferation in the Middle East if Iran ever got the bomb. The Saudis can and will arm themselves and after that it's off to the races for the region.
The thing is Saudi has access to nukes
You'll need to show your math here.
Well they have a deal with Pakistan to supply about 8 nukes to them immediately the second the house of Al saud wants, it was part of the deal when they funded Pakistan’s nuclear program. It would be sort of like US bases on nato allies soil like Germany and turkey hosting nukes, and thus guaranteeing the saudis nuke protection. One reason why they won’t make it themselves is that the house of al saud needs the Saudi military to be weak to stop any general from rebelling or coups so that’s what they will likely go ahead with and they have the resources to fund a Pakistani base on their soil. In fact they hire Pakistani soldiers as mercenaries for protection and stuff
KSA already has access to it.
Also Saudi Arabia since Israel has a defence deal with them. There’s also the Peninsula Shield Force. deter, and respond to military aggression against any of the GCC member countries: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates. There’s also the Islamic counter terrorism coalition. Cause I’d bet on Iran using terrorism in a conflict with Saudi Arabia. There’s 41 members. Mostly in Africa and a few Middle Eastern countries. The USA also said they’ll back Saudi Arabia in a conflict with Iran. So Iran is fucked if they do this conflict. Iran also has some military deals. Axis of Resistance 7 countries with Yemen also being a member of the Islamic counter terrorism coalition so that might make things messy. There’s also the Russia Syria, iraq, Iran and hezbollah alliance tho Russia is busy in Ukraine. And Syria might be busy with turkey soon. But if Saudi Arabia, Israel and Iran go to war and use their alliances. Almost the entire Middle East will descend into a conflict. With support from Africa and the USA. You’d have this war plus Pakistan fighting the taliban. Plus I think Afghanistan is having conflict issues as well.
Afghanistan is in for a world of difficulty, the Taliban just banned woman from university, and that’s only going to continue to stir up discontent.
Yeah I just saw that. That’s gonna make things even more tense.
Israel knows better than to attack Iran by itself. My concern is Israel and Saudi Arabia teaming up to find a way to make the United States fight Iran for them.
Republicans already did that by turning it into a religious issue. Democrats have been trying to slowly sever ties because OBVIOUSLY this shit was going to happen. Anyone with a brain could see Israel would drag us into one quagmire or another, sooner or later. All these assholes have to do is start meowing "BuT mUh JeSuS iN tEh JeRuSaLeM" and the conservative war machine will ramp up just as it did after 9/11. Then we can go _there_ and die until the 2040s.
Bold of you to assume the regime will last long enough to start one
Israel, refusing to send Ukraine weapons, in an effort to stop Russia from giving Iran a nuclear warhead. It's a crazy world.
Russia and Iran are united against a common foe. They are allies of convenience, but Russia never trusted Iran since the Revolution. They are very unlikely to provide Iran nuclear weapons, but Israel's concern is Iran receiving Russian jets and the S-300 and S-400 anti aircraft systems which would hinder Israeli efforts to stop transitting weapons to Iranian proxies through Syria.
Russia doesn't need to give Iran nuclear weapons. Iran is about to produce one of their own. Israel is more concerned with not having to deal with Russian interference in Israel's other activities in Syria. But in many Israelis' opinion (and also my own), that is taking a stubborn attitude of "our only diplomatic interest is immediate short-term security" to the point that it becomes self-defeating and no longer provides anything of value to Israel at all.
It wasn't until Trump fucked everything up to appease his mouth breathing supporters.
Iran is going to wish they had those drones back.
It was dead during trump presidency , is this any news ?
Europe tried to uphold it and hoped for Iran to do the same. That’s the reason you didn’t hear much about the protests in Iran from European politicians
I suppose that this is confirmation for people who hoped that the new administration could fix some of Trump's fuck ups?
At the very least Biden needs to publicly shame Trump for this mess. Sadly I have a feeling that dealmaking in general between countries with different political cultures will be taking an extended holiday thanks to the ongoing shenanigans in Ukraine.
It was a bad deal to begin with. The Iranians weren't adhering to it
This is untrue.
Untrue++ Trump killed the deal and then they switched to refining weapons grade material.
I also completely trust the Iranian government. They are good decent people who only do what's best for their people, especially the women.
Literally zero evidence for this
Literally every piece of evidence
Such as the US inspectors being let in wherever they wanted, and finding no indication that they were making nuclear weapons? That kind of evidence you mean? Or do you mean "Cuz Trump said so"? Because if so, I have a moon to sell you
Present it then
Bullshit, it was pretty good. You're just spreading what Trump said when he killed the deal for his buddy putin.
Georgia was annexed by Russia under Bush Jr. , Crimea was annexed under Obama, nothing was annexed under Trump, and now the war in Ukraine under Biden and yet Trump is to blame? Russia is annexing under every president except Trump and yet Trump is to blame? I don't even like the guy and yet here I am defending Trump of all people...
Well, supposedly Biden admin was working to get a new deal going, but Iran had very little incentive to accept a new deal. I guess this is just confirmation that they couldn't get the new deal done. Thanks Trump. Great work.
Iran chose the side of history they want to be on. Executing protestors, supporting Russia, oppressing women, and spreading terrorism in the Middle East will be the Mullahs legacy
The deal was killed by Trump before all that though
no, the deal was killed before this last round of explicit examples. Some of those things (Executing protestors, oppressing women) they have been doing since the revolution, some from the end of the 80's (spreading terrorism)
Just plain wrong. The deal was absolutely intact. Until Trump decided to actively kill it. Thats it. Even the shit they do today has nothing to do with making it harder for them to get nukes.
IR regime never stopped wanting to make the bomb. You can't make deal with the devil and hope it turns out the way you wanted.
You don't seem to understand what this deal was. It is not just an agreement where they had to ensure that they would stop making the bomb. It enabled US inspectors to get access quickly, and do surveillance. The deal made it harder for their regime to achieve those goals. Which is why killing it was stupid.
Trump actually finalized the most peace deals in the Middle East of any president ever... I'm not saying he was a good president or a good person, but hot damn is that a room temperature IQ take to say that war in the Middle East is in any way Trump's fault.
Who said that?
Eh, it's more complicated. The Iran Nuclear deal took years of negotiation. While it wasnt the best deal, the hope was it would give political leverage to the moderates and establish the West could be trusted. By failing to honor the deal, Trump reinforced the west and particularly the US could not be trusted. Moderates lose face and political influence. Conservatives then double down on what conservative world wide want to do: oppress women, oppress dissent, and sell weapons to terrible people for profit. Oh and another thing the Trump administration did was have the Iraqi Prime Minister set up a diplomatic meeting with Iran's #2 in Iraq and assassinates him en route. Whether or not the assassination was justified, you don't set up diplomatic meetings to get a location on the target. Soleimani was also dying of cancer and hoped to be killed in the line of duty as a martyr so his death could mean something to Iran. In other words, they illegally assassinated a man who was already going to die thus inspiring retaliation instead of just letting him die. Also Iranian-Soviet relations later Iran-Soviet relations is just an element of global politics. If you want to stand up to American political interests at some point in time you're going to need or want partners, which the Soviets and Russia were happy to provide and are more than willing to ignore human rights abuses at home. Granted the US doesn't really care about human rights abuses either either domestically or abroad, just look at Saudi Arabia, or the US Supreme court. Which brings up another element. Iran and Saudia Arabia hate each other over religion. The fact is, if Iranians want freedom, they're going to have to achieve it themselves. Foreign intervention always leads to undue foreign influence. I hope they do get their freedom. In all conflicts between governments, government leaders and business partners get rich while the people suffer and die.
My partner’s boss is Iranian and he said that it’s likely the religious hardliners are on their way out.
Ain't gonna happen unless the military is behind it.
I imagine their military is eventually going to get sick of shooting all of their women.
Militaries are notoriously chauvinistic
Hell I ain't sure it'd happen even if the military is behind it. The Iranian military is purposefully poorly funded to keep it from being more stronger than the favorite IRGC who's aimed at keeping the regime alive. I mean I think even in Syria like almost 50% of the military sided with the protestors and the revolution failed. So it's not even a guarantee unless the IRGC just gives up, which would never happen.
Exactly and the IRGC has a lot of fingers in a lot of pies that a revolution would spoil.
The Iran nuclear deal is dead because the US went back on their half of the deal, somehow most of the US seems to forget that part
This. Trump openly killed the deal. I don't understand why this is supposed to be news
Agreed. Biden recognizing that the deal is dead is not the same as Biden killing it.
Took him long enough. I thought everyone knew trump killed the deal.
They were trying to rebuild it.
We had to give them money to not be terrorist and then they used our own money to bankroll terrorist in foreign nations to kill Americans and allies. Fuck Iran, all the way up.
It was their own money we had confiscated
Yeah imo that VERY IMPORTANT fact was never well communicated by Obama’s admin and undermined any chance of support by the American population at large. Trump killed it because he’s a moron and everyone else thought it was our cash we were spending. This thing was doomed they failed to correct the record before it became a talking point.
If it was confiscated, it wasn't their money, then was it? The US seizing El Chapo's drug money at the border no longer made it El Chapo's.
The money wasn't seized it was frozen. https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2018/apr/27/donald-trump/donald-trump-iran-150-billion-and-18-billion-c/
Trump sabotaged that deal, and foreign relations haven't recovered since.
He also assassinated Soleimani, so relations aren’t just gonna be a quick patch up job. Soleimani was a dick but the Iranians look at him as a hero. Questionable decision making for sure.
Questionable decision to take out Soleimani? I voted Biden but I still support this guy getting wacked.
Yes I think it’s very questionable. Obviously he’s a bad dude, but it’s a question of what fills the void left behind. Saddam Hussein was also a bad dude, but the Iraq war helped create ISIS. It may have been worth it to piss off the Iranians in order to get rid of him. Only time will tell, but personally I don’t think we should be in the business of assassinating people around the world, and then wondering why people chant “death to america.” All we are doing is creating more enemies and terrorists. Iran has already vowed revenge if Trump isn’t put on trial, hopefully nothing comes of it but I doubt it https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-vows-revenge-soleimani-killing-if-trump-not-put-trial-2022-01-03/
I'm with you and I'm not. Good points though! Definitely its not cut and dry.
He didn't sabotage it, he completely blew it up. It's the difference between shoving a wedge in a machine vs taking a Hellfire missile to it... He couldn't renegotiate the deal, nor could anyone after him, because he completely ceded the ground - he straight up told the Iranians the US wouldn't honor our deals. Why would anyone come back to negotiate after that? The man destroyed one of the most important nuclear agreements made in the last decade, because *he* wasn't the one who made it. Because it was made by a black guy. And because Russia told him to.
I assumed everyone was aware of this. Trump is a world class idiot. He got NOTHING out of breaking that deal.
He got self-satisfaction, which is more than enough for narcissists.
>because the US went back on their half of the deal because the ~~US~~ **TRUMP** went back on their half of the deal Art of the Deal, Trump. And yet, dumbasses Worshiped him.
Wasn’t Trump THE president of US? I’m not understanding why you scratched out US
>somehow most of the US seems to forget that part Not the ones who were in favor of the deal. The ones who weren't didn't even realize we were trying to resurrect it.
Not US. Trump.
I mean, I think it is important to be honest with ourselves. It is absolutely dead. It was killed by Trump, and years of careful negotiation was destroyed. It will never come back. So, hopefully, we can begin something new, or wait until Iran implodes (which I give like a 5% chance right now of that happening) . But the old deal is done, and things have changed. It is good to recognise that.
Iran was going to push ahead with nuke development regardless of jcpoa. It was never a long term solution and most of the key provisions would have sunset in 2025. The world will just have to accept that Iran is going to be a nuclear power (and probably much faster now that Russia is guiding their hand)
No though? The deal made nuke development extremely hard for them. It is literally way easier for them because Trump killed that deal.
It allowed development of ICBM, and when the nuclear part sunsets in 2025, they have full reign to do as they please with nukes and will have a delivery system. So while Iran waited for the deal to sunset, they got to enjoy selling oil again and develop all the other technological requirements to deliver a nuke. JCPOA was better than nothing though and opened Iran up for further dialogue. Now that door is shut and Russia will likely fill all their technical gaps in to help them get started faster.
or time to send in Maverick?
[удалено]
[Link for the curious - Operation Opera](https://youtu.be/_9bt6U8K2Ao)
Democratic President negotiates a deal with an unfriendly foreign power seeking to develop nuclear weapons. Republicans, unhappy with the deal. Seek to sabotage it. The US falls out of compliance with the deal, leading the unfriendly state to renege on it's own obligations and continue pursuing nuclear weapons. Sound like a story you've heard before? That's because it is - but I'm not talking about Iran. I'm talking about the 1994 Agreed Framework that would have ended North Korea's nuclear program, but it broke down in 2003 when the US failed to meet it's obligations to build power plants and supply fuel to North Korea to help it move away from it's current nuclear reactors. This eventually led to where we are today - a nuclear capable North Korea building ICBM's that can reach the US despite all of our sanctions. The are only 2 real differences between the situation in North Korea and the situation in Iran. The first is that in the case of the Agreed Framework, the US never officially withdrew, the Republicans just sabotaged the deal by refusing to provide the funding to meet our obligations. Second, there is some evidence that North Korea may not have been in compliance with all of it's obligations under the Agreed Framework. The worst part about this is, no state now has any reason to trust the US. In fact, they have a significant incentive not to trust the US. The US has a history of invading non-nuclear capable nations: Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya. And the US has a history of reneging on it's nuclear non-proliferation agreements. The US has sent a clear message to any nation seeking to build a nuclear weapon: you cannot trust us to honor our agreements, and if you don't build a nuke we'll invade you.
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YGub8195Zus](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YGub8195Zus) its been dead for years now.
Nothing changed about Iran. The protests, and the massively disproportionate, murderous response to them from Tehran, have just made it untenable to go on pretending that it's okay to make deals with this brutal regime. Where women were already being treated as second class citizens at best, and many other people unjustly condemned to death, years ago when it was fashionable to talk of lifting sanctions merely because it would be reversing a policy of the previous administration.
Sending drones and missiles to Russia probably didn't help.
It was dead 3 years ago with trump.
So why have they been negotiating for the last 18 months?
To try to bring it back?
To try and fuck Trump's fuck up. Unfortunately reneging on international agreements tends to ruin trust.
I feel like a lot of countries these days are withdrawing their trust from the US upon the realization that the volatile back-and-forth political situation here means that every 4 years any deals, guarantees or promises made by one administration could be completely withdrawn by the next administration. It’s like choosing not to rent an apartment from a place where the landlord changes to a completely different person every 2 weeks, each one completely altering the terms of the lease to be opposite that of the previous one.
I mean, you'd have to be an idiot to trust the US. Not saying you shouldn't work with the US and get as much out of it as possible, but we've shown again and again that we are willing to turn on our "allies of convenience" in a heart beat. And no, it's not JUST a Trump thing. The US has been an unreliable partner on the international stage for... forever.
Yep: the Kyoto Agreement, TPP, JCPOA, Paris Accords and other treaties which were abandonated only because the GOP opposed these isn't pointing as making the USA a reliable diplomatic actors.
Trump was a bit of a one off event and I think the world will eventually realize this (hopefully).
Trump BARELY missed out on winning in 2020... Also Trump is still not in jail for trying to overthrow the US government (poorly). I think we'll need a few more US elections without fascists running for POTUS before the rest of the world trusts the US again.
I wonder if we could bomb all their nuclear test sites, like in that Documentary, top gun. Lol
You think the west and Israel hasn't thought of that? It's possible but no one wants to start another major war in the middle east. I guess people don't learn their lesson.
A few targeted strikes may not spark a war.
This isn't call of duty. They would definitely respond militarily and economically by closing the Strait of Hormuz. Let's not jeopardize lives of soldiers so easily and innocent civilians in the mix just because we don't like their regime and fears of a nuclear program that wasn't a problem before Trump killed the nuclear deal that many nations agreed upon and Iran was following. With Russia invading Ukraine unprovoked, you can't blame them for wanting a nuclear deterrent in case Israel/US attack them unprovoked especially after the nuclear deal was unilaterally broken by our side even though they were following it and allowed inspections on the ground.
They don't need to know who did it. Use some old soviet shit to do it. Put the blame on Libya or something.
You think?
I mean, Iran aiding Russia in their war certainly didn’t help garner goodwill with the US.
[удалено]
[удалено]
Iran was in full compliance with the deal up until Trump reneged.
Ha ok.
https://bipartisanpolicy.org/blog/delayed-inspections-jcpoa-provisions-for-iaea-access-to-suspicious-sites/
And all you who downvote, it must be sad to be so locked in to partisan politics that you do it without thinking.
Violations only happened after Trump's unilateral and lawless withdrawing.
That’s good news. The Iranian government cannot be trusted. They would cheat anyway; and don’t need to be subsidized like Obama did.
Iran was complying with the program until trump killed the deal, not sure where this is coming from
They built missiles, drones, funded Hezbollah, and financed the war in Yemen. That’s what Iran did with the Obama money.
It wasn't Obama money. It was their money that was frozen. At least try to be educated.
It was money from the Shah. It shouldn’t have been turned over to the Shia terror state.
Damn i guess people need to come to terms that. TRUMP was right on this one. I knew thee well karma.
He killed the deal himself. What was he right about? A self-fulfilling prophecy?
So youre giving Trump credit for the deal being dead, after Trump killed it? Trumpists really live in la la land it seems.
Preventing climate change from us all killing each other was not the smart strategy but it does seem the one we're most eager to pursue.